Most Valuable Player

Contenders:  QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Russell Wilson, QB Dak Prescott

Sleepers: QB Drew Lock

Mahomes and Jackson are the last two league MVPs and it’s quite possible these two just pass this award back and forth over the next decade or so.  Both players are immensely talented and play on teams that look like they will contend for a while.  Quarterbacks always have an advantage in the MVP race which is why this list has so many of them.  Drew Brees and Tom Brady may be older but both of them are on teams that should be major contenders and both could be considered sentimental favorites. As good as Russell Wilson has been throughout his career, he has still never even garnered a single MVP vote, that is one of the strangest stats ever. I don’t think he wins the award but I do think he gets votes this year.  Dak Prescott is often overlooked and Ezekiel Elliott usually gets more credit than him but I think voters take note this year as Prescott puts up some big numbers and the Cowboys win their division.  Christian McCaffrey went for over 1000 yards rushing and receiving last year and if he does it again this year, he’ll get some MVP votes.  Drew Lock is my sleeper because the Broncos offense is set up for him to put up some big numbers if all goes well.  He won’t win the award but he will have a good year. 

My Pick: Mahomes.  I know Jackson won it last year but that actually makes it more difficult to win again because you have to have an even better year than you had before and it has to be significantly better for people to notice.  Jackson suffered the same fate in college after winning the Heisman. It’s okay, he can take it back next year.  Mahomes has all the momentum coming off his Super Bowl MVP and the Chiefs are going to be great.  He wins his second MVP, but not his last. 

Offensive Player of the Year

Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Michael Thomas, QB Kyler Murray, RB Alvin Kamara

Sleeper: RB Joe Mixon

Mahomes and Jackson are on this list for obvious reasons.  McCaffrey is also an obvious choice given the fact he goes for over 2000 yards combined.  Saquon Barkley is one of the most talented players in football and if he stays healthy, he can also go 1000/1000 like McCaffrey.  Alvin Kamara is another back with the potential to go 1000/1000 because he’s equally effective running and catching the ball.  Michael Thomas won this award last year because he had 149 catches last year, I think that’s some kind of record.  Kyler Murray put up some good stats last year as a rookie QB and this year he adds DeAndre Hopkins to his passing game, that’s going to help.  Joe Mixon doesn’t get talked about a lot but with Joe Burrow around to open up the passing game Mixon should have some extra room to run and he’s a talented guy. 

My Pick: McCaffrey.  He had almost 1400 yards rushing and just over 1000 yards receiving last year and that was with Kyle Allen being his QB.  Teddy Bridgewater is better and I think this year he gets over 1500 yards rushing and over 1200 receiving as the Panthers offense is a bit better than last year and he’s still carrying the load. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Contenders:  DE Aaron Donald, OLB Khalil Mack, OLB TJ Watt, OLB Chandler Jones, OLB Shaq Barrett, DE Nick Bosa, DE Myles Garrett, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB Jalen Ramsey

Sleeper: DE Yannick Ngakoue

Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack are guys that just belong on the list due to their long history of being great defensive players. It might work against them for the award at this point because their level of play is expected to be great.  Gilmore won the award last season, rightfully so, but that makes winning it again harder.  It will be tough for him to have a better season on a Patriots defense that has been compromised by free agency and Covid-19 opt outs.  Chandler Jones and Shaq Barrett were two of the best pass rushers in the league last season, this year they will try to not be overshadowed by their teams’ offenses.  Nick Bosa was a star as a rookie and took home defensive rookie of the year, he’ll be making this list for the foreseeable future.  Myles Garrett has to mend his reputation before he gets votes for DPOY but he’ll play well enough to be considered.  Jalen Ramsey is one of the best CBs in the game but he plays on the Rams and I don’t think he will get many votes.  TJ Watt broke out as one of the best OLB in the game last season.  Ngakoue will shine under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota and on a better overall defense than he played on in Jacksonville.

My Pick:  Watt.  TJ Watt is the leader of the Steelers defense this year and if the team had been better last season, he might have had more recognition.  With the offense set to rebound with Big Ben back the spotlight on Watt should be brighter.  He could have 15-18 sacks and have an even bigger impact than last year. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: QB Joe Burrow, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Henry Ruggs III, WR Justin Jefferson, RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Cam Akers

Sleeper: RB D’Andre Swift

Burrow is the only rookie QB slated to start right away as Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa wait behind veterans.  Burrow is going to put ups some numbers even if they aren’t in the win column.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire got off to a great start for the Chiefs and he will continue that all season.  Jerry Jeudy is supposed to be the #2 WR behind Courtland Sutton but if Sutton’s shoulder injury lingers Jeudy will be asked to step up.  Ruggs is likely Derek Carr’s top target but the question is, does Carr have the arm to take advantage of Ruggs’ deep speed?  Justin Jefferson will be the #2 WR behind Adam Thielen, will he get enough usage to win this award?  Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers are sitting behind veteran RBs right now but no one thinks that will last.  Both will be eventual starters, their chances at the ROY award comes down to how soon they take over the jobs.  Swift was one of my early favorites and he only becomes the sleeper because the Lions added Adrian Peterson and that means Swift has to climb over both Peterson and Kerryon Johnson to get the job. 

My Pick: Burrow.  This will be an interesting award.  The RBs are almost all in a time share except Edwards-Helaire and he will be overshadowed in an offense filled with playmakers.  The WRs are always a dicey proposition as rookies, usage and consistency can be issues.  Burrow is the high-profile player and he’s got some weapons in the passing game.  If the Bengals can keep him up right, he wins this award.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: DE Chase Young, DT Javon Kinlaw, LB Isaiah Simmons, LB Patrick Queen, LB Kenneth Murray, DT Derrick Brown, CB AJ Terrell

Sleeper: Antoine Winfield Jr.          

Let’s be honest, this is Chase Young’s award to lose.  He’s the best pass rusher of all the rookies and he’s almost assuredly going to get double digit sacks.  Washington isn’t a great team but they have a very good defensive line which means you can’t double Young all the time, he’s going to get his.  Javon Kinlaw isn’t a starter yet but he will be and the 49ers have a great defense. Derrick Brown is a starter but on a defense that isn’t great.  Simmons, Queen and Murray are all slated to be starters but they will have to put up huge numbers that stand out.  Queen and Murray should both play on top 10 defenses so that should help them stand out.  Terrell is the one rookie CB who is going to face the firing squad given the division he plays in, if he plays well, he could win the award.  Winfield is a playmaker and playing for Todd Bowles defense in Tampa is going to give him some opportunities to stand out.

My Pick: Young.  I’m not stupid, Young is going to have 12-15 sacks and be one of the best defensive players in the league even as a rookie.  He has Pro Bowl potential in his first year.

Playoff Predictions

This year the NFL starts their new playoff format with 14 teams meaning one more playoff team per conference.  Only the top seed gets a 1^st round playoff bye making it that much more important to have the best record in each conference.   

NFC Playoff Teams (* Wild Card teams)

Dallas

New Orleans

Minnesota

San Francisco

* Seattle

* Tampa Bay

* Green Bay

AFC Playoff Teams (*Wild Card teams)

Buffalo

Baltimore

Tennessee

Kansas City

* Pittsburgh

* Indianapolis

* Denver

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans over San Francisco

AFC Championship Game

Kansas City over Baltimore

Super Bowl

New Orleans over Kansas City

Drew Brees goes out a winner as he gets the Saints team over the playoff failures of the past few years, wins Super Bowl MVP and retires a champion. 

New Orleans Saints

You can’t start a discussion of the Saints offense without Drew Brees being front and center.  Brees is 41-years old, he missed five games last year and still nearly threw for 3000 yards.  The team has utility man Taysom Hill behind him but they hedged their bet by bringing in Jameis Winston also.  This team will only go as far as Brees takes them and this may be his last season so he plans to make it count.  WR Michael Thomas proved he’s one of, if not the best, WRs in the game last year and he is Brees’ favorite target.  They did finally find Thomas a legit #2 WR to take some pressure off of him by bringing in veteran Emmanuel Sanders, he is a major improvement at the position.  TE Jared Cook was also a solid weapon for Brees but he’s not getting any younger either.  The other major offensive weapon is RB Alvin Kamara.  He had to take over more of the running game last year after Mark Ingram left but Kamara is a dangerous player running or receiving and that’s what makes him special.  The offensive line has been one of the better ones for the past several years.  LT Terron Armstead, LG Andrus Peat and RT Ryan Ramczyk are established, high-level veterans.  Erik McCoy stepped in at center last season and proved quite capable.  This year, RG Cesar Ruiz was drafted in the first round and he steps in immediately.  The line shouldn’t miss a beat and that should keep the offense humming. 

The Saints defense doesn’t usually get mentioned with the best defenses in the NFL but Dennis Allen has done an excellent job for several years now and the they more than hold up their end.  Cam Jordan is one of the best and least talked about DEs in the game.  In the past seven years he’s had double digit sacks five times.  They drafted Marcus Davenport two years ago to be the starter opposite Jordan and it’s time for him to really show up.  Sheldon Rankins and Malcolm Brown are really good DTs even if people talk even less about them than they do Jordan.  At LB, Demario Davis is the elder statesman and he has proven to be an effective blitzer for Dennis Allen’s defense.  Alex Anzalone and Kaden Ellis are two young guys the team is trying to develop.  Keep an eye on rookie Zack Baun, he may not be a full-time player for them yet but he may be a situational guy that can make a difference.  CB Marshon Lattimore is a star at the position and the team got Janoris Jenkins from the Giants to play opposite him.  Janoris Jenkins has always been a talented CB with some off-the-field issues that sometimes get in the way of his abilities.  The team signed one-time Saint Malcolm Jenkins to come back at safety to give the back end of the defense a smart, steady veteran presence.  He’s a leader they hope will solidify the defense overall.  Marcus Williams is an emerging talent at the other spot they hope will learn from Malcolm Jenkins going forward. 

The Saints have been one of the best teams in the NFL over the past several years and yet they have three consecutive heart-breaking playoff losses that have killed them.  This is likely Drew Brees’ last season and I would think Sean Payton and the entire organization will be doing everything they can to win him a second Super Bowl.  This is arguably the most talented roster in the NFC, now it’s up to them to get over the playoff hump. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Apparently, the Bucs have new QB, it would be nice if the media covered these kinds of things a little bit.  Just to update you, the new Bucs QB is Tom Brady, yes, that Tom Brady.  Brady couldn’t be a bigger change from Jameis Winston.  Winston was a turnover machine who liked to chuck the ball down the field and hope for the best.  Brady is turnover averse, 20 years with Bill Belichick will do that to you, and he’s a better intermediate passer who always knows the best place to go with the ball.  This offense will offer Brady the best group of skill position talent he’s worked with since Randy Moss and Wes Welker were his WRs in New England.  Mike Evans is a prototypical #1 WR, he’s big, fast and talented.  He gives the offense a homerun threat. Chris Godwin is the move-the-chains guy that Brady will go to when he needs to keep a drive alive.  Brady convinced Rob Gronkowski to come out of retirement and give it another go down in Tampa but Gronk won’t be alone at TE.  The Bucs have OJ Howard, a talented youngster they hope Brady can unleash and Cameron Brate, a steady veteran.  The running game consists of Ronald Jones II, LeSean McCoy, rookie Ke’Shawn Vaugh and new addition Leonard Fournette.  Jones is the starter for now but that’s only because Fournette just signed.  I’m skeptical of Fournette because he’s disappointed for years in Jacksonville but he is the most talented back they have and he’s still young enough to be a real force.  McCoy is likely the third down back with Vaughn around for depth.  The offensive line wasn’t great last year but Brady will help because he won’t hold the ball too long like Winston did at times.  They return four starters; LT Donovan Smith, LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen and RG Alex Cappa.  The only new starter is rookie RT Tristan Wirfs.  He’s extremely talented and should prove an upgrade over the departed Demar Dotson. 

Most don’t realize that the Bucs actually had a top 10 defense last year overall.  Todd Bowles is an excellent defensive coordinator and he brought the best out of so many of his players.  The front three has Ndamukong Suh (yes, he’s still around), Vita Vea and William Gholston.  They held up pretty well last season.  ILBs Lavonte David and Devin White are a playmaking pair that don’t let much get by them.  OLB Shaq Barrett was a revelation coming over from Denver after being a part-time pass rushing specialist and became a Defensive Player of the Year candidate under Bowles.  Jason Pierre-Paul may not be as dynamic as he once was but he was a solid complement to Barrett. Bowles did a great job with a secondary that is somewhat overmatched.  Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting were solid at CB.  At safety, the team will start rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead while Justin Evans rehabs an injury.  Winfield isn’t the biggest player around but he’s a dynamic guy in the secondary.  

This Tampa Bay team should be considerably better than last year simply by having Tom Brady around to not throw 30 interceptions like Jameis Winston.  The team will be good but I don’t know if I’m ready to anoint them a Super Bowl team just yet. The NFC has a number of really good teams including one in Tampa’s own division, the Saints.  New Orleans, San Francisco, Dallas, Minnesota and Green Bay are all legitimate NFC contenders, it won’t be an easy road to Super Bowl Sunday for anyone.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons offense should be good but they need a healthy offensive line, a healthy Todd Gurley and dare I say a better game plan from Dirk Koetter.  Matt Ryan somehow turned 35, Julio Jones is 31, Alex Mack will be 35, and Todd Gurley’s knees are 127 years old so this team needs to make a move now.  That’s easier said than done in a division with Drew Brees and Tom Brady.  Julio Jones is still one of the best WRs in the NFL and Calvin Ridley is an emerging player as his sidekick.  Gurley is hoping to reestablish himself as a top RB by carrying the load in Atlanta but I’m skeptical he can stay healthy after a couple of less-than-stellar seasons.  The team lost Austin Hooper in free agency and they are hoping to reinvigorate the career of former Ravens’ first-round pick Hayden Hurst.  Hurst is talented but he wasn’t used much in Baltimore and their offense uses the TE plenty.  The offensive line returns LT Jake Matthews and C Alex Mack, two stalwarts up front.  They hope rookie Matt Hennessey can get healthy and take over the starting LG job and be better than James Carpenter.  They are hoping their two first-round picks from last season, OG Chris Lindstrom and OT Kaleb McGary, can get healthy, stay healthy and be a top tandem on the right side. There’s a lot of hoping in Atlanta this year as they watch their franchise QB run out of time to win them a Super Bowl.

The defense was a shell of their former selves last year due to injury and ineffectiveness but they played better when Raheem Morris moved from wide receivers’ coach to coaching the secondary last year and he had more input into the defense.  Morris is a defensive coach originally and now that he’s taking on the coordinator role it should improve the defense overall.  The defensive line welcomes Dante Fowler Jr. who they hope will bring some pass rush from the DE spot.  Takkarist McKinley hasn’t broken out yet but the team is still hoping it happens.  Grady Jarrett and Tyeler Davison are set to start at DT but look for rookie Marlon Davidson to have an impact.  The LB corps will see a major turnover as Deion Jones returns but De’Vondre Campbell left for Arizona and Duke Riley was traded away.  Jones is an excellent MLB but he’ll have to direct Mykal Walker and Foyesade Oluokun around due to their inexperience.  The secondary will be much improved if Keanu Neal and Damontae Kazee can stay healthy, not having those two last year was devastating.  Ricardo Allen is the third safety and he’ll play plenty when they move Neal up to act as more of a LB.  Rookie AJ Terrell is going to be counted on to be the teams new #1 CB as they hope Isaiah Oliver can hold down the other spot.  It’s a tough assignment for a rookie considering the division houses Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas and even DJ Moore is improving in Carolina. 

I’m not convinced the Falcons can compete within their own division let alone the entire NFC.  They have too many aging or injury prone players at important positions.  Counting on Todd Gurley’s knees to hold out and carry your running game is not a solid plan at this point.  They hope the offensive line is better and that gets them through.  This team has a lot of hopes and dreams but I don’t see a lot of solid planning here. 

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are in a state of transition as new head coach Matt Rhule puts his plan in place for long-term success.  Rhule is coming in from turning around the Baylor program in college football and he knows this is a rebuild.  The team brought in Teddy Bridgewater to hold down the QB spot until they find their permanent solution.  This offense will be based on the unbelievable talent of RB Christian McCaffrey. He is one of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the NFL and will almost assuredly go for 1000 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving, that’s hard to do but he’s done it already.  McCaffrey is the one established playmaker on the team but WR DJ Moore is an emerging one.  He isn’t in the upper echelon of WRs yet but the kid is still working towards it.  He gives Teddy Bridgewater someone to throw to on the outside.  The team signed free agent Robby Anderson from the Jets and while he has been productive, he’s not always reliable.  He’s better than what they have had and he does bring a downfield element to the offense.  Greg Olsen is off to the great northwest so Ian Thomas is left to handle the TE spot, he’s okay but he’s not Olsen.  The offensive line is a work in progress.  They traded for LT Russell Okung but they had to give up OG Trai Turner to get him.  Taylor Moton moves to RT and they hope Matt Paradis has a solid season in the pivot.  The guard spots are not stellar and could be an issue. 

The Panthers defense is going to be starting at least three rookies right off the bat with safety Jeremey Chinn likely to get plenty of playing time too.  The defensive line has two rookie starters; DT Derrick Brown and DE Yetur Gross-Matos.  Considering how the d-line was last year, new starters are a good thing.  DE Brian Burns and DT Kawann Short are the holdovers and the team expects more from them both.  At LB, the team lost future Hall of Famer Luke Kuechly and there is no replacing him.  Tahir Whitehead will fill his spot but in no way will he fill his shoes.  Shaq Thompson is the strength at LB now as they break in new guys.  CB Donte Jackson will be asked to step up and rookie Troy Pride Jr. is slated to start opposite him.  Juston Burris and Tre Boston are the safeties and that’s not great.  This secondary is going to have problems especially in a division with Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.  Rookie Jeremy Chinn isn’t set to start but part of that might be because the team doesn’t know if he’s better suited to safety or LB so for now he’ll play where they can get him in. 

I’m not sure the team is going to be bad enough to be in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville is going to be hard to beat for the worst team in the league.  However, they may be in a position to grab Justin Fields or another QB they like instead.  Rhule was given a long contract so he may not reach for a QB if he doesn’t like one and may draft a guy like OT Penei Sewell or a defender he likes.  Bridgewater has a three-year deal and Rhule’s is even longer, he doesn’t have to hurry. 

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers went to the Super Bowl last season on the strength of an impressive running game and an outstanding defense.  They hope the passing game can come around a little bit this year and give them a little more balance.  That’s going to take some development by QB Jimmy Garoppolo and some young WRs.  Jimmy G is a talented guy who just needs to put it together.  It would go a long way if he could get some help in the passing game from someone other than TE George Kittle.  Kittle is one of the two best TEs in the game but he would be even more productive if the WRs would take some pressure off of him.  Deebo Samuel started to really come on last year as a rookie but they need more.  The team drafted Brandon Aiyuk out of Arizona St. and he has big play potential.  They still need more but Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle are the passing offense for now.  Luckily, this team runs the ball as well as anyone in the league because Kyle Shanahan is as great at calling a running game as his father.  Raheem Mostert returns to be the lead guy and Tevin Coleman will be his complement.  The team traded Matt Breida to the Dolphins to clear up the rotation a bit and hey, perhaps this is the year the team finally gets something out of Jerick McKinnon.  The offensive line brought in Trent Williams to replace the retired Joe Staley at LT and they have to replace two interior players.  One of those guys is C Weston Richburg and that hurts because he’s quite good, however, it’s hard to bet against Kyle Shanahan having a good offensive line. 

If your team is going to be predicated on running the ball and playing defense, this is the defense you want to have.  Up front this team is loaded and that’s after trading away DeForest Buckner.  At DE they have Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead with Dee Ford as the third guy.  Ford would not only be a starter on most teams, he would be the #1 pass rusher on about half the teams in the league.  At DT DJ Jones is the unsung hero, he gets no press because of the enormous shadows of the guys around him but he is good.  The team drafted DT Javon Kinlaw with the pick (or actually one pick later after trading down one spot) they got from the Colts for Buckner.  Kinlaw should start but former top three pick Solomon Thomas hasn’t handed over the job just yet.  He will though, it’s just a matter of time, Kinlaw is a monster.  When you have six d-linemen like those guys it makes the back-seven’s jobs that much easier.  The three LBs are all tackling demons who run free most of the time because everyone is dealing with the front four.  Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are both second-year guys who aren’t household names but they are highly effective players.  Kwon Alexander was a big free agent signing a few years ago and he completes this trio of tackling machines.  CB Richard Sherman is still getting it done at one spot while the other corner is held down by Emmanuel Moseley.  Moseley replaced Ahkello Witherspoon after he proved less than effective.  Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward man the safety spots and while they aren’t flashy, they do get the job done.

Kyle Shanahan proved to be an excellent head coach as he got the 49ers to the Super Bowl faster than what was expected.  He really trusts his coordinators, it’s easy on offense because he is the coordinator and he’s arguably the best play caller in the NFL.  Robert Saleh runs the defense and if the 49ers hadn’t been playing all the way to the Super Bowl last year someone might have hired Saleh away to be their head coach.  The 49ers are lucky enough to hold on to him and he’s lucky to have a defense that is absolutely stacked with talent. 

Seattle Seahawks 

The Seahawks offense used to be built around a power running game, now it’s built around whatever Russell Wilson can do for them.  Wilson is one of the best QBs in the game but the team asks a lot of him.  The running game now consists of Chris Carson, who is frequently banged up, and the newly signed Carlos Hyde.  Carson can be effective but he needs to stay on the field.  Hyde can be a power back but he seems to always be just good enough that his team wants to replace him.  Maybe as the backup to Carson he’ll find a home.  Tyler Lockett has proven to be Wilson’s favorite target in the passing game and he plays like a legitimate #1 WR.  The passing attack got a shot in the arm with rookie DK Metcalf proving to be a perfect partner for Lockett.  The team relies heavily on these two as they don’t have much else at WR.  At TE the team signed veteran Greg Olsen to give them a consistent player at the position.  Olsen is aging but he can still get it done.  Will Dissly is a nice, young developmental TE if he can come back from his injury.  The offensive line has 35-year old LT Duane Brown and 33-year old LG Mike Iupati protecting Wilson’s blindside so they have to hope they have another year in them.  Ethan Pocic is taking over at center while rookie Damien Lewis steps in at RG and Brandon Shell comes in as a free agent at RT.  This isn’t the greatest o-line ever but Wilson makes it work. 

The Seahawks built their championship teams on their defense, this isn’t that defense.  Up front they need last year’s first-round pick DE LJ Collier to actually show up, he was a complete non-factor as a rookie and now he’s a starter.  Benson Mayowa was a pass rushing specialist last year for the Raiders and now he’s the other starting DE in Seattle.  They need both of these guys to be more than they were.  They are better inside with Jarran Reed and Poona Ford at DT but there is no depth behind them.  At LB, Bobby Wagner is the best MLB in football with Luke Kuechly retired.  Veteran KJ Wright is a high-volume tackler who’s been around a long time.  The team brought back Bruce Irvin to be an OLB and they hope he can juice up the pass rush a bit.  They also drafted Jordyn Brooks and he looks like the eventual replacement for Wright.  The secondary has been overhauled over the last year or so.  It started with the trade last year for safety Quandre Diggs from Detroit.  It continued with the early off season trade for CB Quinton Dunbar from Washington.  Finally, they traded for safety Jamal Adams from the Jets just a few weeks ago.  They join holdover CB Shaquill Griffin to form a new Legion of Boom, or so everyone in Seattle hopes.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on the secondary if they team can’t manufacture some pass rush but this group might actually be able to withstand it. 

Pete Carroll’s team is always tough and they will give the 49ers everything they can but they will come up short.  I question the defensive front four and with San Francisco’s running game that is going to come back to bite the Seahawks.  Arizona will be an improved team but I don’t think they will be quite ready to overtake Seattle for second in the division

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray was the Offensive Rookie of the Year last season after carrying the load for an offense that lacked a lot of playmakers.  The team did trade for RB Kenyan Drake during the season and he finished strong and they brought him back to solidify the running game.  That’s a solid addition.  They followed that up this off season with the major trade for WR DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans.  That is an amazing addition and it only came at the cost of trading David Johnson and a draft pick.  They gave Hopkins a big extension to be Murray’s go to guy. Hopkins joins Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk as a pretty good trio of WRs who should make Murray that much more effective.  The offensive line is still a bit suspect. They brought back DJ Humphries at LT and Justin Pugh, Mason Cole and JR Sweezy make up the interior.  Kelvin Beachum is slated to start at RT over last year’s starter Justin Murray.  That should be an upgrade but not by a lot.  Kyler Murray’s elusiveness comes in handy behind a line that struggles with consistency.  Maxx Williams is the starting TE but the team doesn’t really include him in the passing game. 

The defense is built around OLB Chandler Jones who is one of the better pass rushers in the NFL.  To be more precise, Jones was the Cardinals defense last year and this year he’s hoping for some help.  Up front, the three-man front consists of Zach Allen, Corey Peters and Jordan Phillips.  Phillips comes over from Buffalo and the Cardinals hope he brings some consistency and playmaking they have been missing.  The team signed Devon Kennard to play OLB opposite Jones and while he’s not the most impressive pass rusher he won’t be worse than they had.  The big addition at LB came in the draft as they got the most athletic player in the 2020 draft in Isaiah Simmons from Clemson.  He steps in at ILB next to veteran Jordan Hicks.  Simmons is multitalented player that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can deploy in a variety of ways.  The secondary is still led by CB Patrick Peterson even though he is chronically mentioned as a trade candidate.  He may not be as elite as he once was but he’s still the best CB they have.  Byron Murphy is the other starter but the team recently signed Dre Kirkpatrick after losing Robert Alford to an injury and Kirkpatrick is a steady veteran, they might find him more reliable.  Budda Baker has proven to be an excellent safety and he is becoming a leader of the secondary.  Jalen Thompson didn’t become a starter right away last year but he worked his way into the role and seems to have solidified the job. 

This team isn’t quite ready to compete with the big boys in the NFC West but they should be better than they were last year.  Murray gets a lot of help with Hopkins and having Kenyan Drake all season long.  The defense should improve with more consistency up front and Isaiah Simmons as a playmaker in the middle.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were 9-7 last year but it was an ugly 9-7 at times.  Sean McVay clearly agreed as he brought in Kevin O’Connell as the new offensive coordinator and Brandon Staley as the new defensive coordinator.  You don’t change coordinators when things are going well.  The team had plenty of injuries to deal with especially on the offensive line and to RB Todd Gurley, who was never himself even when he played.  This season the team is trying to replace Gurley with three RBs; Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, and Cam Akers.  Not a great strategy in my opinion and I don’t think it will take too long for them to realize Brown and Henderson aren’t the guy and go to Akers.  He’s a talent but he’s also a rookie.  At WR, the jettisoned Brandin Cooks, while that doesn’t seem like a huge dea,l Cooks was the real deep threat of the team and he made teams have to cover deep.  Cooper Kupp is a reliable player when healthy, Robert Woods moves the chains and Josh Reynolds is fine but none of them really threaten defenses down the field.  At TE they have Tyler Higbee, an emerging talent, and Gerald Everett who is a steady veteran.  The offensive line needs health more than anything because there is little depth.  LT Andrew Whitworth is 38-years old to start the year and that is worrisome.  Austin Blythe stepped in at center last year, moving over from guard, and looks to solidify that spot.  Joseph Noteboom is returning from injury and he and Austin Corbett, the guy that replaced him, look to be the new starting guards.  Rob Havenstein is the RT, he’s fine but not really noteworthy.  Jared Goff was paid a lot of money to direct this unit and he struggled last year when the running game came to a screeching halt when Gurley was ineffective.  He needs the team to find balance to be effective because the offense works best when the play-action game is good. 

The defense is where some real regression could take place.  They still have Aaron Donald wreaking havoc up front and Michael Brockers came back after his free agent deal with Baltimore fell through.  Donald is one of the most feared defenders in football but even he needs some help.  The team lost Cory Littleton and Clay Matthews at LB and even though Matthews wasn’t great I don’t think his replacement Leonard Floyd is going to be a big upgrade.  They will certainly miss Littleton in the middle.  The team traded for Jalen Ramsey last year and recently gave him a huge extension, that makes one great CB on the team.  However, that just puts a whole lot of pressure on Troy Hill on the other side.  If he crumbles under that pressure it gets ugly quickly because this team only has one elite pass rusher, Donald.  Taylor Rapp and John Johnson III are a decent safety duo but the team will miss the leadership and experience of Eric Weddle who retired this off season. 

The 49ers and the Seahawks are going to be good, that’s a given.  The Cardinals look like they will be much improved with the additions they made in the off season.  The Rams look like they downgraded at several key positions; RB, LB, WR, maybe more.  Two new coordinators means there will be some adjustment time needed too.  Unless Sean McVay can pull a rabbit out of his hat, this season could be a struggle.      

Baltimore Ravens

It’s a bit hard to pick against the team with the reigning NFL MVP at QB so I’m not going to do it.  The Ravens have built their offense around the very special talents of Lamar Jackson.  Jackson is the definition of a mobile QB, the difference between him and other running QBs is Jackson keeps his head up and is always still looking to make a throw downfield. He’s far more accurate than he gets credit for and if he gets a little more help out of his receiver group, he can become even more dangerous.  Marquise Brown should take another step towards being a legit #1 WR.  He has plenty of talent and is an exceptionally dangerous deep threat.  The team needs Miles Boykin to become a bigger threat as the #2 guy.  The sleeper here is rookie Devan Duvernay who could be a beast with his speed and change of direction skill.  Jackson relies heavily on his TEs, especially Mark Andrews who has become his favorite target.  The team has one of the best running games in the league, a lot of that has to do with Jackson making plays with his legs but Mark Ingram is a top-notch power back.  The team also added rookie JK Dobbins and he should help take the load off of Ingram as he ages.  The offensive line lost future Hall of Famer RG Marshal Yanda but they return the other four starters and they have plenty of options to choose from to step in at RG.  This offense should only be more dangerous as they get more comfortable together. 

The defense was good last year but it can be better this season.  The team added two aging veterans to the defensive line; Derek Wolfe and Calais Campbell.  They should add stability up front and they have to be hoping Campbell adds some pass rush.  Campbell is 35 but he still has some juice left.  At OLB, Matt Judon has come on as the primary pass rusher in Baltimore but he needs some help.  Campbell is the first option to upgrade the pass rush but it would really help if second-year man Jaylon Ferguson would win the other OLB job and bring some heat.  The ILB spot needed help and the team is counting on two rookies to do it.  First-rounder Patrick Queen will step in right away and the team also has Malik Harrison, a third-rounder they look to develop.  The secondary may have taken a hit talent-wise with Earl Thomas being cut but he seemed to rub his teammates the wrong way so the team chemistry may improve with inexperienced but talented DeShon Elliott stepping into his role.  The trade last year for CB Marcus Peters stabilized and improved the position opposite Marlon Humphrey and made this secondary one of the best in the league. 

The Ravens waltzed through the AFC North last year when the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger and the Browns didn’t live up to their hype.  They still don’t have to worry about the Bengals, who are clearly rebuilding, but Big Ben is back and if the Browns ever do live up to their talent level, look out.  The Ravens should win the division again but winning 14 games will be harder without a cakewalk division.  Also, the league has now seen an entire year of Lamar Jackson so they will be better prepared to face him.  The Ravens are Super Bowl contenders but the path will be much more difficult. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers went 8-8 with Ben Roethlisberger missing almost the entire season, Mike Tomlin deserved more Coach of the Year votes.  I don’t know how many he got but he deserved more.  He won 8 games with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges lining up at QB.  The offense will be massively improved with the return of Big Ben, even if he is getting a little older.  They have a stable of RBs led by James Conner and featuring Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell and rookie Anthony McFarland in some capacity.  At WR, Juju Smith-Schuster will be the biggest beneficiary of Big Ben’s return and it should aid the development of youngsters James Washington, Diontae Johnson and rookie Chase Claypool.  The offensive line isn’t flashy but they get the job done.  At TE, the team added Eric Ebron to Vance McDonald.  Ebron is a talented player who has worn out his welcome in more than one place.  If he can get along, he could be a valuable weapon. 

The defense has been a 3-4 for as long as I can remember and they are led by the incredibly talented OLB TJ Watt, he is just entering his prime.  He has a solid pass rushing running mate in OLB Bud Dupree and both guys are in their mid-20s meaning they are primed to be excellent for a while.  They don’t have any real depth behind them but these two can play a lot of snaps.  Devin Bush stepped into the ILB spot last year as a rookie and played quite well.  Veteran Vince Williams isn’t a flashy guy next to Bush inside but he’s a steady veteran presence.  The team has veterans up front like Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, Chris Wormley and Tyson Alualu.  They are not a well know bunch but they are solid.  At CB, Joe Haden still has some gas in the tank and Steven Nelson played better in the last half of last year than he did early on.  The secondary really changed last year when the team traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins and stepped in at safety.  Fitzpatrick is a multitalented player who gave the defense a playmaker in the back end that made all the difference to this team.  If youngster Terrell Edmunds can hold down the other safety spot the Steelers secondary could be a strength. 

I don’t think this team has the fire power to go toe-to-toe with the Ravens offensively but Mike Tomlin can coach the hell out of this team.  They won’t back down and they won’t go away quietly as long as Big Ben is healthy this season.  He has said his arm feels better than it had previously after having his UCL repaired.  That’s not an uncommon thing to hear baseball pitchers say after the same surgery so he may have new life in his aging arm. 

Cleveland Browns

The most disappointing team last season was the Cleveland Browns.  There was a lot of hype around a team with a young QB coming off a good rookie season and a whole host of skill position players that looked like the makings of a great offense.  I said last year the two things that could derail the Browns were a bad offensive line and their head coach.  That’s exactly what happened.  They have addressed both issues.  Kevin Stefanski was hired as the new head coach and he can’t be worse than Freddie Kitchens and the offensive line has seen some good turnover.  Stefanski was the Vikings offensive coordinator and he relied heavily on his running game and using the TE.  This team has Nick Chubb, who was second in the league in rushing last year and they signed Austin Hooper at TE to add to David Njoku.  Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are a talented pair of WRs the new offense should find ways to use better than Kitchens did.  The new offensive line features three new starters including LT Jedrick Willis, RT Jack Conklin and RG Wyatt Teller.  That leaves C JC Tretter and LG Joel Bitonio as the two returning starters, the two good ones from last year.  Stefanski knows what an NFL offense is supposed to look like and the Browns have to hope Baker Mayfield can recover from whatever Kitchens and Todd Haley did to him last season. 

The defense will be led by DE Myles Garrett who is returning from his suspension to end last year after the ugly confrontation during the Steelers game.  Garrett needs to put it all behind him but some people won’t forget he tried to hit Steelers QB Mason Rudolph in the head with a helmet during the altercation.  Garrett is a superior talent and if he can get back on track, he’s a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.  The entire defensive line is pretty good with Olivier Vernon lining up at the other DE spot and Larry Ogunjobi and Sheldon Richardson playing inside at DT.  The LB corps leaves a lot to be desired and the team is counting on second-year man Sione Takitaki, rookie Jacob Phillips, youngster Tae Davis and newly signed BJ Goodson to be playmakers.  That’s not a great group.  The secondary has a chance to be better but it took a hit when rookie Grant Delpit was lost for the year to injury.  Denzel Ward is a legitimate #1 CB and Greedy Williams is more than capable of being the #2.  They need Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo to really step up at safety.  The newly acquired Ronnie Harrison from Jacksonville could help out there too once he’s up to speed. 

The Browns need Kevin Stefanski to work out for no other reason than this team needs some stability.  They go through coaches like Kleenex and that isn’t conducive to winning.  I don’t think this team is ready to compete with the Ravens for the top of the division but they should make it harder on them and give the Steelers something to worry about. 

Cincinnati Bengals

There are two things I know for sure about the Bengals this year; Joe Burrow is going to put up some incredible stats for a rookie QB and the Bengals are going to suck.  I love the WR corps Burrow has to work with; AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and John Ross bring a lot of skills to the table.  If Green is healthy, he and Boyd are a formidable pair.  The TE group is pretty non-descript.  CJ Uzomah has never been the #1 guy and Drew Sample isn’t ready for that spot either.  The RB duo of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard is excellent.  Mixon is an upper echelon talent while Bernard is the perfect complementary veteran to pair with him.  LT Jonah Williams, LG Mike Jordan, C Trey Hopkins, RG Xavier Su’a-Fila, and RT Bobby Hart are a scary combination.  Not for defenses, for Joe Burrow.  This is a line that needs lots of work and a lot to go right to keep Burrow from getting killed.  As you can see there is a lot to like and a lot to dislike about the Bengals offense.  That inconsistency probably doesn’t bode well for this team’s chances of winning a lot of games.  The three defenses they will face in their division will likely eat their offensive line for breakfast so Burrow needs to throw the ball quickly and then duck. His stats will look good at the end of the year because this team will be behind a lot and he’ll get some garbage time statistics.  

As inconsistent as the offense might be the defense might just be consistently bad.  The big off season addition up front was NT DJ Reader from Houston.  That will help in the run game but he’s not improving their pedestrian pass rush.  DEs Carlos Dunlop and Sam Hubbard are nice players who give everything they got but they don’t scare opposing offenses coming off the edge.  DT Geno Atkins was once a feared interior pass rusher but those days are over, he’s a solid veteran player but he isn’t changing the game anymore.  The LB corps should be better than last year’s atrocious group but that’s not setting the bar very high.  This group will lean heavily on rookies like Logan Wilson and Akeem Davis-Gaither and second-year player Germaine Pratt which is likely to lead to some mental mistakes.  Veteran Josh Bynes is around but he’s bounced around the league for a while for a reason, he’s the type of player you play while you’re looking for his replacement.  The secondary was supposed to be better with CBs Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander added in free agency but Waynes is injured and likely out for the year.  That leaves a hole outside opposite William Jackson because Alexander is better suited for the slot.  At safety, the team signed Vonn Bell to pair with Jesse Bates, a serviceable pair assuming Bell beats out Shawn Williams, who is nursing an injury. 

The Bengals are in full-on rebuild mode which means they don’t care as much about winning as they do about developing their young guys.  Burrow is the future of the franchise and my advice this year is keep max protect as much as possible to save him from getting pummeled every week.  The team has some great skill position players to build around but unless they have a miracle worker coaching the offensive line that group is going to get destroyed almost every week.           

Buffalo Bills

The Bills look like a team on the cusp of a breakthrough and their offense may have added the one piece they desperately needed this off season, a legitimate #1 WR.  Stefon Diggs gives them a gamebreaker who can take the pressure of being the top WR off of John Brown and let him play the complementary role he is more suited to play.  The team has a good offensive line, an emerging TE in Dawson Knox and Cole Beasley is still a legitimate weapon in the slot.  At RB, the team drafted Zack Moss to be the power complement to Devin Singletary, they should make a pretty good duo.  This offense comes down to the development of Josh Allen at QB.  He has the skills to be a top-notch QB he just has to put it all together.  Given his offensive line, receiving group and a running game there are no excuses left, he has to perform.

The defense was good last year and head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier should keep them performing well.  The team added veterans to supplement that side of the ball; DE Mario Addison, LB AJ Klein and CB Josh Norman.  All players McDermott is familiar with from his time in Carolina.  Addison gives them a better pass rusher than Trent Murphy, Klein gives them some steadiness next to young LBs Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano and they hope Norman still has something left in the tank to lineup opposite Tre’Davious White.  They also added AJ Epenesa in round two of the draft and he adds some pop to the defensive line and some youth they desperately need.

It’s now or never for the Bills if they want to take the next step, the Patriots rebuild means the division is there for the taking and the Bills are the steadiest team in the division with the least amount of turnover meaning they have the advantage this year.  If Josh Allen can take the next step the Bills win the division and make some noise in the AFC playoffs this season.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins were terrible to start last season but they played much better in the last half of the season.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is the definition of a hit-or-miss QB but his veteran presence last year stabilized the offense.  He returns to hold down the fort until the team deems Tua Tagovailoa ready to take the reins.  This team is going through a lot of change but it should be for the better.  Nowhere is that more prevalent than on the offensive line.  LT Austin Jackson, LG Ereck Flowers, C Ted Karras and RG Solomon Kindley will all be new starters but they are all upgrades over last year’s line.  WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki are solid options in the passing game and the team added Lynn Bowden Jr from the Raiders.  He could be the playmaker this team desperately needs.  The team upgraded the RB position with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida.  The offense will also be under the direction of new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, I’m less optimistic about that development than I am the upgrade in talent.  Gailey has been out of the game for a bit so that makes his scheme an unknown.

The defense has also undergone a major facelift.  New guys like LBs Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts, DEs Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah and CBs Byron Jones and rookie Noah Igbinoghene add talent to a unit that desperately needed it.  Add in some talented holdovers like DT Christian Wilkins, LB Jerome Baker and CB Xavien Howard ad this defense has potential to make a move.  The upgrades on defense might actually outperform the upgrades on offense and Brian Flores knows how to coach up a defense.  If the offense can be more consistent they can also keep the defense off the field and fresh.

The Bills are counting on continuity with just a few slight adjustments to take them to the top of the division.  The Dolphins are looking for a major overhaul to do the same for them.  They were one of the least talented teams in the league last season and it showed in the first half of the year.  Brian Flores did an excellent coaching job in the back half of the year getting as much as he did out of that roster.  It will be interesting to see what he can do with actual NFL talent on both sides of the ball.

New England Patriots

No team is going through more change than the Patriots with the end of the Tom Brady era, a new starting QB in Cam Newton coming in and the fact that they have a whole host of players who opted out of the season because of the pandemic.  The offense will look a lot different with Newton running it.  The offense will suffer from the same issue it had last season and that is a serious lack of playmakers in the passing game, Julian Edelman can only do so much.  They still have no TE that threatens anyone and the deep passing game is non-existent. Without Marcus Cannon at RT the offensive line is compromised.  The offense is going to have to rely heavily on the running game, using both the running backs and Cam Newton’s legs.  Luckily, Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead and even Damien Harris give the Patriots plenty of options in the backfield.

The defense will look a whole lot different without LBs Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Robert and Jaime Collins, who all left in free agency and without Donte’ Hightower who opted out.  Belichick’s defense relies heavily on the LBs and Ju’Wuan Bentley is going to have to play far too much given his skillset.  They are going to be relying on rookie Josh Uche quite a bit too.  The defensive line doesn’t scare anyone and they will need Chase Winovich and John Simon to ball out at OLB.  The secondary will still be a huge strength due to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, safety Devin McCourty and a deep CB group of Jason McCourty, JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones.  They do need either rookie safety Kyle Duggar or second-year man Joejuan Williams to step in and replace Patrick Chung who also opted out of the season.

I think the Patriots have the potential to be epically bad this season.  The team has a pedestrian offense and an overmatched defense.  I only have them ahead of the Jets in the division because Bill Belichick can still outcoach Adam Gase any day of the week and I don’t think the Jets roster is that much better.

New York Jets

The Jets offense needs Sam Darnold to take a pretty big leap if they want to get better so they addressed the issues around him, I’m just not sure they got guys that help as much as they hope.  They needed WR help so they signed Breshad Perriman.  The former 1st-round bust had a solid year last season in Tampa Bay but that was as a 3rd WR not a #1, he’s never excelled as the top dog.  The team then drafted Denzel Mims from Baylor and while he’s a great athlete and was highly productive he didn’t run the whole route tree at Baylor and the NFL will be a big transition.  I’m not sure two WRs who could be inconsistent players will help Darnold as much as the team hopes.  The Jets took things one step further than the Dolphins by literally getting five new starters on the offensive line.  I’m quite sure LT Mekhi Becton will be an upgrade over last year but the other four spots might not be.  Getting those five guys together is paramount to the offense’s success because Darnold needs as much protection as possible.  Le’Veon Bell gets a new backup in the ageless wonder Frank Gore but the Jets running game leaves plenty to be desired, again, the offensive line needs to be considerably better.  A healthy Chris Herndon at TE would be very helpful to Darnold’s health and development, he’s a talented guy.

The Jets defense has some solid players in guys like DT Quinnen Williams, LB Avery Williamson and safety Marcus Maye but they lack any serious playmakers.  They run a 3-4 defense which relies on OLB to generate pressure, they don’t have anybody that really does that.  They also traded disgruntled safety Jamal Adams to Seattle, he was the best player on the defense and their biggest playmaker.  Avery Williamson is returning from an injury at ILB but CJ Mosley opted out of the season meaning they are missing their best overall defensive player (after trading Adams).  Gregg Williams has put together some great defenses before but you have to have someone to make plays or you just won’t get the job done.  This defense leaves a lot to be desired.

I think this season could blow up on the Jets with an inconsistent offense and a defense that can’t get off the field.  It makes me wonder if Adam Gase will survive long-term and if the team will stick with Darnold if he doesn’t show good progression.  This is a very important year for the Jets’ future, the coach, the QB and the franchise as a whole.