Every year I like to make my predictions for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the year, division winners (you can get those from my previews too), my playoff teams and my Super Bowl pick.  This is an exercise in futility as I never get these right but hell, what else do I have to do.  Here it goes…I reserve the right to be wrong about all of it, because I’m clearly going to be wrong about all of it. 

MVP

Top Contenders: QB Josh Allen, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Tom Brady, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Jonathan Taylor, DT Aaron Donald

Sleepers: QB Matt Stafford, QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Herbert

This is a QB award and right now it belongs to Aaron Rodgers but he’s going to have a harder time holding on to it without Devante Adams around.  Tom Brady is always in the conversation but his bar is set so high because he has been so great that if he didn’t win it last year with the stats he had, he’s not pulling it off unless the Bucs go 17-0.  Mahomes might have a chance if he can be just as productive without having Tyreek Hill and if he can win the very tough AFC West. Lamar Jackson was having a good year last year until he got hurt, if he gets back on track, he’s won it before.  Jonathan Taylor has to run for 2000 yards and the Colts need to be a top two AFC seed in the playoffs for him to have a puncher’s chance, like I said, it’s a QB’s award.  I included Aaron Donald because he’s the best defensive player in the NFL, even if they didn’t give him that award last year. 

Stafford won a Super Bowl but still doesn’t get the credit he deserves for being as good as he is sometimes.  Now he has Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson so maybe he throws for 5000 yards and the Rams go 15-2, then he has a shot.  If Wilson could navigate the Broncos to win the AFC West he would be in the conversation for sure, or at least he might finally get an MVP vote. Herbert is going to win this award someday, I don’t think this is someday, but it could be if he takes down the AFC West title and actually makes the playoffs. 

My Pick: Josh Allen.  It’s tough to bet against him, the Bills are stacked and they are going for it.  The win the AFC East, probably easily, possible #1 seed and they are the Super Bowl favorite.  It’s his award to lose at the moment. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: DT Aaron Donald, OLB TJ Watt, CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Nick Bosa, DE Myles Garrett

Sleepers: DE Chandler Jones, S Minkah Fitzpatrick

TJ Watt tied the sack record last year and won this award, rightfully so.  Just like the MVP award almost always goes to a QB you have to be either a big sack guy or a big interception guy to get noticed for Defensive Player of the Year.  Aaron Donald is the best interior pass rusher in the league and is just a game wrecker so everyone recognizes how great he is.  Bosa and Garrett are the other two guys who could put up a 20+ sack season and get in on the race.  Jalen Ramsey is the best defensive back in the NFL and he changes the way offenses play, his biggest problem is Donald generally gets more of the credit for the Rams defense when they’re good. 

Chandler Jones has been a major sack guy even when he was in Arizona and he was the only real pass rushing threat.  Now he joins the Raiders who have Maxx Crosby so his sack numbers could go up.  If the Raiders surprise in the AFC West with him going off, he could get in the conversation.  Minkah Fitzpatrick is the major chess piece for the Steelers’ defense, if he could get out of Watt’s shadow, he could have a chance at this award. 

My Pick: DE Nick Bosa.  I think Bosa could have a huge year and could get to 20 sacks.  If San Francisco’s defense is one of the best it will be because of Bosa. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders:  WR Drake London, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave, RB Breece Hall, RB Kenneth Walker III, WR George Pickens, RB James Cook

Sleepers: RB Brian Robinson, WR Romeo Doubs, RB Dameon Peirce

Well, there’s no QB who seems to be in the running.  Kenny Pickett could steal the starting job in Pittsburgh but that’s still questionable.  No one else is starting.  Drake London should put up some numbers considering he has almost no competition for targets other than Kyle Pitts.  Wilson and Olave will be important parts of their respective offenses but they won’t be the top guys.  They are very talented so they could really break out.  Breece Hall is still fighting Michael Carter for the starting job but he’s the better talent. Walker could have a big year if he gets the starting nod instead of Rashaad Penny once he’s fully healthy.  Penny has had injury issues in his career so it’s completely possible.  George Pickens has been the break out star of Steelers camp but for now his QB is Mitchell Trubisky and he has two WRs ahead of him in the pecking order in Pittsburgh at the moment, that hurts his chances.  James Cook is going to be the pass catching back in an offense that loves to throw the ball. 

Brian Robinson has a shot to be the starter in Washington because clearly Ron Rivera has reservations about Antonio Gibson.  Robinson has serious breakout potential.  Romeo Doubs might be the best WR in Green Bay, including Allen Lazard, he’s certainly the best rookie WR there.  Peirce should be the top RB in Houston, I’m just not sure Houston’s offense can be good enough to get him the numbers he needs. 

My Pick:  Brian Robinson.  This is the year to look at a dark horse because there’s no QB and the WR’s are so dependent on others and London is the only one that’s the #1 WR right now.  Robinson goes for 1400 yards as the Commanders try to take the ball out of Carson Wentz’s hands. If you want a really out of the box sleeper, it’s OT Braxton Jones from the Bears.  I think he’s legit but offensive lineman almost never win these awards. He would have to be dominant.  *UPDATE* Brian Robinson was shot twice in his lower body yesterday, he’s out for the foreseeable future. It was apparently some sort of carjacking. He’s stable and his injuries are not life threatening, that’s really good to hear. Clearly, he’s probably out a while and his ROY chances are slim now. I’m still picking a sleeper, it’s Dameon Pierce.  

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Aidan Hutchinson, OLB Travon Walker, CB Derek Stingley Jr, CB Sauce Gardner, OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, S Kyle Hamilton

Sleepers: S Jaquan Brisker, LB Nakobe Dean, S Nick Cross

Hutchinson feels like a pretty solid bet here considering he’s going to play a lot and there isn’t anyone stealing his thunder in Detroit.  Not having a lot of help might hurt his stats but I think he’ll be just fine.  Walker might lose out on sacks to Josh Allen so his numbers might be depressed.  Stingley is fantastic and he’s already the top CB in Houston but it’s the Texans so he’s going to have to really shine to win an award.  Gardner should also be a top CB but he too plays on a team that might not help him out much.  Thibodeaux would have been in a good spot but he might miss some time early with a knee injury and that might set him back.  Hamilton plays on the right defense but there’s a lot of competition for snaps in Baltimore, he might get eased in. 

Brisker and Cross are in the same boat.  They weren’t drafted high but they both walk in as day one starters at safety.  Cross is on the better defense in Indy but Brisker might make more plays in Chicago with a young secondary around him.  Dean is listed as the backup to TJ Edwards in Philadelphia but I just can’t see them leaving his talent on the bench. 

My Pick:  Aidan Hutchinson.  He isn’t the flashiest pass rusher but he’s just relentless.  He’s going to have 12-14 sacks and that should be enough to get him noticed.  All bets are off if Nakobe Dean leads the NFL in tackles though. 

NFC Playoffs

Division Winners

LA Rams

Tampa Bay

Green Bay

Philadelphia

Wild Card teams (there’s 3 now)

New Orleans

San Francisco

Minnesota

AFC Playoffs

Division Winners

Buffalo

Kansas City

Indianapolis

Cincinnati

Wild Card teams (yep, 3 here too)

LA Chargers

Baltimore

Las Vegas

(Yes, I left New England out of the playoffs.  I like a lot about the team itself but I have zero confidence in the offensive coaching staff until I see them do something real.  I have more confidence in the Iowa Hawkeye offensive play calling than I do in New England). 

NFC Championship

LA Rams vs. Green Bay

AFC Championship

Buffalo vs. Cincinnati

Super Bowl

LA Rams vs. Buffalo

Super Bowl Champions

Buffalo Bills (it hurts to say it, I’m hoping it’s a jinx)    

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts sent Carson Wentz packing after a year and made a trade for Matt Ryan.  Ryan will be a much more impactful leader for this team as Wentz was never that guy.  The passing game should be fine if they can get more out of the guys behind Michael Pittman Jr.  Pittman had a breakout year last season but he’s the only sure thing for Matt Ryan.  Parris Campbell has never stayed healthy in his career, TY Hilton is out the door, and Alec Pierce is a rookie.  Pierce is a good-looking prospect but he’s never played an NFL snap.  The rest of the depth chart at WR is pretty bleak.  TE Mo Alie-Cox is likely to be a Ryan favorite.  Ryan used his TEs in Atlanta quite well and Alie-Cox is a good player. 

The running game will be the focus of the Colts offense as Jonathan Taylor proved to be the top RB in the league last year.  He handled an impressive workload and was quite dominate most of the year.  He’s not alone either, Nyheim Hines carved out a role for himself and the team even added Phillip Lindsay for depth.  The offensive line has been a strength for years but they need to fill the hole at LT.  Eric Fisher didn’t work and now they are hoping either Matt Pryor or rookie Bernhard Raimann can fill the spot.  I’m still not convinced they won’t make a move (either a signing or trade) before the season starts.  Quenton Nelson is still the top guard in the league.  C Ryan Kelly is quite good when he’s healthy and RT Braden Smith is an underappreciated talent.  Danny Pinter looks to replace Mark Glowinski at RG; he should be fine.  This unit is almost always better than the sum of its parts, they hope that’s true again.

Matt Eberflus did such a great job coordinating the Colts defense for the past several years he got the Bears head coaching job.  Now Gus Bradley comes in and will try to keep it going.  The Colts defense has never really been built on one or two guys, it’s the collective effort of everyone.  That doesn’t mean they don’t have a couple of truly elite guys.  Up front they are built around DT DeForest Buckner.  Buckner is a giant human entering his prime and mucking up everything for opponents in the middle of the field.  He does everything well and they actually went out and got him some help.  They traded for Yannick Ngakoue to start at DE.  Ngakoue is a speed rusher on the edge and will give them a legitimate pass rusher outside.  They are hoping Kwity Paye can build on a solid rookie year at the other end but Ngakoue has a more proven track record.  Grover Stewart starts inside next to Buckner, he’s not flashy but he doesn’t need to be, he just needs to be solid.  They don’t have a lot of depth up front. 

They really only play two LBs and we will see if Bradley sticks with that plan.  Shaquille Leonard (he doesn’t go by Darius anymore), is an elite player.  He’s one of the best LBs in the NFL and he does everything exceptionally well.  He’s everywhere all at once and that’s impossible to teach.  Bobby Okereke is the other LB.  He’s really good also and doesn’t get the credit because he plays with Leonard.  If Bradley wants to use a third LB it’s probably Zaire Franklin, that’s his best choice. 

The secondary lost CB Rock Ya-Sin when they traded him for Ngakoue in the offseason which is why they signed Stephon Gilmore in free agency.  Gilmore isn’t going to be the guy he once was at this stage of his career but they need him to be solid.  Kenny Moore II is a really good corner who’s best used in the slot so they need someone else to step up outside.  They lost Khari Willis at safety to early retirement.  They drafted Nick Cross and he’s likely to start opposite Justin Blackmon but the team did sign veteran Rodney McLeod.  McLeod will add some depth and experience on the back end. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC in last year’s playoffs, and they went home quickly.  They have Derrick Henry returning, assumably at full health.  They bring back Ryan Tannehill at QB, not sure that’s a good thing.  And they traded away AJ Brown, that’s a tough loss.  Tannehill is a solid QB but the AFC is loaded with better QBs than him and it’s becoming a problem.  With Matt Ryan in Indianapolis and Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, there’s a solid chance Tannehill’s the third best QB in his own division (and Houston’s Davis Mills had his moments last year, I’m just saying).  Tannehill lost his one true weapon in the passing game when the Titans decided they didn’t want to pay AJ Brown.  They picked up Robert Woods from the Rams and they drafted Treylon Burks to be their AJ Brown replacement.  I love Treylon Burks as much as anyone but it’s going to take some time for him to ever approach being as good as Brown.  The best they can hope for is that he stays on the field more than Brown.  They picked up TE Austin Hooper, he’s fine, he’s not great.  Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a decent third WR, but they don’t have a fourth.

Derrick Henry is this offense, although they found out last year, they could still run the ball effectively with some street free agent RBs when he had a foot injury.  Not to dismiss Henry’s effectiveness but D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard were fine.  Foreman left but the team did draft Hassan Haskins from Michigan and he’s got size and speed.  The offensive line is led by LT Taylor Lewan and C Ben Jones.  Those guys have been around the block a time or two.  Nate Davis is a solid vet at RG and they are hoping Dillon Radunz can lock down the RT spot.  LG should be a competition between Aaron Brewer and Jamarco Jones although they may want Jones available at OT if needed. 

Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry are two pretty good pass rushers for guys who play DE in a 3-4 defense.  Simmons is just getting started as one of the best defensive linemen in football and Autry had a really good first year in Tennessee.  Teair Tart isn’t the biggest nose tackle around but when you’re flanked by Simmons and Autry, no one really notices. 

The pass rush is supposed to come from the OLB and while Harold Landry did his part with 12 sacks, big free agent signing Bud Dupree missed a large portion of the season (of course he did) and was underwhelming.  They don’t have any other options opposite Landry so they need Dupree to live up to his contract.  At ILB they traded for Zach Cunningham last year, he’s solid if he’s healthy but unless they rework his contract, he’s gone after this year.  David Long Jr. is a decent player who’s cheap and he’s the only other guy they have inside.  He’s not setting the world on fire but they could do worse.  If you don’t believe me, look at their depth chart. 

The secondary is led by FS Kevin Byard, he’s one of the best in the business.  He got some help last year from Amani Hooker who stepped in at SS and they can be a good tandem.  The CB spot has Kristian Fulton on one side, he had a good year and looks to build on it.  They also have Elijah Molden who can be an elite nickel corner and they drafted Roger McCreary, a guy I really like who gives them some versatility.  The wildcard is second-year man Caleb Farley.  Farley has elite measurables, can be a fantastic cover man, but simply can’t stay healthy.  He had a back issue coming out of the draft, tore his ACL early last year, and that was after sitting out his last college season during Covid.  His potential could make this secondary elite, or his question marks can make this secondary a question mark.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The team has been rescued from the Urban Meyer debacle and they have an actual NFL caliber head coach and staff running things now.  Doug Pederson comes in to give this team the professionalism it needs.  His tenure in Philly went south after his Super Bowl win and it’s not inconceivable things eventually get weird between him and GM Trent Baalke but for now, it’s good.  Trevor Lawrence is a true talent at QB and now he’ll be in a real NFL offense.  The team spent some money (some of it may have been unwisely spent) to get Lawrence some help.  Even if you don’t like Christian Kirk’s contract (and I don’t) he’s a productive WR who’s an upgrade over what they had.  They also overpaid for Zay Jones, I’m not sure that one works out.  Marvin Jones Jr. is a solid professional WR.  It would be interesting if Pederson and his staff can figure out ways to use Laquan Treadwell and Laviska Shenault Jr.  Evan Engram joins the TE group with Dan Arnold.  Engram is usually banged up but the he’s still talented. 

James Robinson is a good RB but he’s coming back from an Achilles injury.  Travis Etienne missed all of last year with a foot injury.  If these guys get back healthy, this running game could be quite good.  The offensive line has some improvements and run blocking usually comes along faster when you have new pieces, that would be good for this offense.  They re-signed Cam Robinson at LT, he’s not elite, but they clearly didn’t like their other options so he’s back.  They did spend big money on RG Brandon Scherff, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the best guards in football.  They seem to be hoping that putting Scherff next to Jawaan Taylor at RT might help Taylor develop.  He’s a big guy with athleticism, he just hasn’t put it together yet.  It looks like rookie Luke Fortner is going to take over at center pushing Tyler Shatley out to LG which should improve the line at two positions.  This offense has some real NFL talent and now a real coaching staff, they should be much improved even if they aren’t elite. 

The Jaguars’ defense is going through yet another transition and it includes some pretty big changes in the front seven.  The three-man line now consists of holdovers Roy Robertson-Harris and DaVon Hamilton joined by free agent Folorunso Fatukasi, not a bunch of household names but they can be solid up front. 

The LBs are really getting a makeover.  Josh Allen has been their best pass rusher but they have moved him around from OLB to DE and never really let him settle in.  Now he will be an OLB with #1 draft pick Travon Walker. Walker was a down lineman at Georgia but he’s an athletic freak so they are moving him outside and hoping he becomes the pass rusher they need opposite Allen (the one K’Lavon Chaisson has never become).  They drafted Devin Lloyd and he’ll immediately step in at one ILB spot while free agent Foyesade Oluokun takes the other spot.  They overpaid Oluokun (it’s a theme with this team because you have to overpay when you’re as bad as this franchise has been) but he’s an upgrade inside.  He and Lloyd should really improve the LB play of this group. 

The secondary returns largely intact.  CBs Shaquill Griffin and Tyson Campbell will be the starters outside while free agent Darious Williams takes over in the slot.  That’s a pretty good trio with some upside as Campbell gets better in his second year. Rayshawn Jenkins remains at FS while Andre Cisco should start at SS.  They still have Andrew Wingard who’s a solid third safety.  It wasn’t just Doug Pederson coming in that helps this team, it’s the coaches he hired.  Defensive Coordinator Mike Caldwell has spent a few years in Tampa learning from Todd Bowles.  They also have some good position coaches to develop the talent.  This Jaguars team could really surprise us this year but I really think it may take another season before we see major results when it comes to winning games.  This year is about development and getting better. 

Houston Texans

It’s not hard to argue that the Texans have the worst roster in the NFL.  Even if I like Davis Mills, and I actually do like Mills, he’s not saving this roster.  I think he could be a very solid NFL QB if he had legitimate NFL talent around him, it’s hard to find here.  WR Brandin Cooks is one of the most underappreciated players in the league.  All he does is catch 1000 yards almost every year, he’s done it six times and for four different teams.  He’s a legit NFL WR.  Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Chris Moore, and Phillip Dorsett are not (I’m not buying Nico Collins until he does something of note in an actual NFL game).  Hard to think it’s possible but the TE spot is worse.  I like Brevin Jordan as your second TE but not when Pharoah Brown is your #1. 

The running back depth chart is better than the TE spot but they don’t even have a Brandin Cooks level guy to lean on.  Marlon Mack was a solid back in 2018 and 2019 for Indianapolis and then he got hurt, he’s never been the same.  Rex Burkhead has run for more than 400 yards in a season once in his career, that was last year when Houston had no good backs either.  The best chance for a decent running game comes from Dameon Pierce.  He’s a power runner out of Florida but he’s never been a guy to carry the load.  At the very least, he should be their goal line guy because he can run people over. 

The offensive line has LT Laremy Tunsil, he’s highly paid and he’s good but he’s been working alone in Houston for too long and he needs some help.  They drafted Kenyon Green in round one to play LG, he’s a talent, but he’s banged up at the moment.  Justin Britt restarted his career after a knee injury almost ended it and played well enough to get an extension to be the starting center, he’s fine, he’s not great.  The right side could be an adventure.  Tytus Howard gets the RT job for now, he’s struggled there.  Max Scharping was a starter at OG but they signed veteran AJ Cann from Jacksonville.  If you’re importing 31-year-old offensive linemen from Jacksonville, you should rethink your strategy.  That said, Cann will start, he’s better than Scharping. 

If you think the offense is bad, wait until you see this defense. DE Jonathan Greenard had eight sacks last season and that makes him the star of the front seven.  He might be the only long-term piece here (and by long-term, I mean he could still be there next season).  Inside at DT they have Maliek Collins and Roy Lopez.  They are both big guys inside who take up space but that’s about it.  The team signed not one but two aging veteran DEs from Buffalo, I’m guessing so they don’t feel lonely.  Jerry Hughes is the young one, he’s almost 34, while Mario Addison already is 34.  Addison can still get to the QB a little (he had seven sacks last year) Hughes hasn’t been good at that for a while. 

The LBs are steady but unspectacular and that’s the nicest thing I can say.  MLB Christian Kirksey is a favorite of mine from his Hawkeye days but the reality is, he’s a soon-to-be 30-year-old LB who hasn’t played a full season in five years.  If they get 12 good games out of him, it’s a win. Kamu Grugier-Hill is a veteran who racked up some tackles last year because someone had to get them.  The team did draft Christian Harris in round three and they should give him as many snaps as he can handle as long as he’s healthy. 

The secondary did get an influx of talent in the draft.  CB Derek Stingley Jr steps in as the top CB and he’s got legitimate #1 CB potential for the next 7-10 years.  He’s their best defensive player immediately and everything in the secondary will be built around him.  They also drafted Jalen Pitre at safety and he gives them some nice versatility and can cover deep.  The other starters should be veteran CB Steven Nelson and either Jonathan Owens or Eric Murray at safety.  They also have Desmond King as their slot corner and he can play some outside corner or safety too.  Having Lovie Smith take over as coach after one year of David Culley doesn’t instill confidence that this team knows what it wants to do.  I think GM Nick Caserio wanted to hire Brian Flores but Flores’ lawsuit against the league ended any chance of that.  Smith could be one and done too if this team is picking first next year and they want to go a different direction, again. Best case scenario for this team is Mills proves he’s a legitimate NFL QB and they get to use a high pick on Will Anderson from Alabama or Jalen Carter from Georgia. This team needs a defensive play maker.       

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Obviously, the big news of the Bucs offseason was the signing of Russell Gage.  Well, maybe I’m underestimating the retirement and unretirement of Tom Brady and Bruce Arians stepping down as head coach.  But that Gage signing could be important.  Brady is back for another run before he heads to the Dolphins next year (I may not be kidding about that).  Anyway, the team returns a lot from last season but they need some health and they aren’t off to a great start.  With Bruce Arians stepping aside and Todd Bowles promoted to head coach, this is now unequivocally Byron Leftwich’s offense (don’t worry, Brady will still get the credit though).   

WR Chris Godwin is Brady’s favorite target but he’s coming off a knee injury and isn’t back yet.  Mike Evans remains the steady star who always gets 1000 yards receiving no matter who plays QB for the Bucs.  They signed Russell Gage to be their third WR, he’s a good slot guy who should be more reliable than Antonio Brown (and by that, I mean he won’t strip half naked and run off the field in the middle of a game).   They signed Julio Jones as a depth piece, he’s simply not the guy he once was but he can still be effective while Godwin gets back.  Kyle Rudolph joins Cameron Brate at TE as they look to replace Rob Gronkowski.  No one will have the rapport Gronk had with Brady but Rudolph is a tried-and-true veteran Brady can trust. 

Leonard Fournette was re-signed because he has Brady’s trust too.  He’s a good runner and has proven to be an excellent pass catcher.  He does everything the offense needs.  As long as he gets into shape by the start the season, he’ll dominate the running game.  The offensive line was supposed to return three starters and LT Donovan Smith and RT Tristan Wirfs are back.  However, Ryan Jensen re-signed after Brady recruited him hard to come back and now, he suffered a serious knee injury early in training camp and his season is in serious doubt.  That’s a big blow to the interior of the offensive line already replacing both guards.  They traded for Shaq Mason, he starts at RG. Unfortunately, they lost Aaron Stinnie to a knee injury too and he’s out for the year. It looks like rookie Luke Goedeke will start at LG unless the sign a veteran. Robert Hainsey steps in at center for Jensen, they could sign a veteran at center but they are giving Hainsey every chance to win the job. Wirfs isn’t completely healthy either, it’s getting a bit tough up front. The offensive line issues could derail this offense.

Todd Bowles takes over as head coach and he promoted two guys to coordinate the defense but make no mistake, he’s still running it.  Bowles is an excellent defensive mind and he’s going to have develop a few young guys to replace some important veterans.  The team didn’t re-sign Ndamukong Suh and they drafted Logan Hall at DE in round two.  Clearly, they weren’t convinced he’ll be ready right away because they signed Akiem Hicks to start with Vita Vea and William Gholston.  Vea is arguably the best nose tackle in football and Gholston is solid vet.  Hall will give them some youth but he’s basically the only depth they have. 

The team also failed to re-sign OLB Jason Pierre-Paul who is aging, wasn’t very effective last year, and had shoulder surgery after missing the end of the season.  They will turn to 2021 first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to play opposite Shaquil Barrett.  Barrett is the star pass rusher now and they also have veteran Anthony Nelson who was steady yet unspectacular last year.  Devin White and Lavonte David are probably the best ILB duo in the league and they do everything Todd Bowles wants his ILBs to do.  They are undersized guys but Bowles likes them that way and he knows exactly how to play to their strengths. 

Bowles is one of the best secondary coaches in NFL history and the way you know that is he has one elite player in this secondary and yet they are consistently one of the most effective units every year.  SS Antoine Winfield Jr. is quickly becoming one of the best safeties in the NFL and he’s the chess piece Bowles can move anywhere he needs him.  The team lost Jordan Whitehead in free agency but they signed Logan Ryan.  Ryan has moved from CB to safety in the past few years and redefined himself as a pretty good safety, a move that has successfully extended his career.  Carlton Davis III, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting make a really solid trio at CB.  They are all similar sizes with similar builds and similar playing styles so Bowles can just put them out there and let them play. 

New Orleans Saints

It feels like people are downplaying the Saints because of their QB and new coaching situation, yet plenty of people are picking them for the playoffs because the NFC isn’t exactly stacked.  It seems like them going with Jameis Winston at QB is making people doubt them and people are doubting their offense overall.  Pete Carmichael is taking over play calling duties but he’s not the “new” offensive coordinator, he has been Sean Payton’s offensive coordinator for more than a decade, he had to have picked up something in that time.  Dennis Allen is the new head coach as he moves up from defensive coordinator so Carmichael will be running the offense.

Winston went 4-2 in games he started and finished last year before his injury in game seven ended his season.  He was up and down at times but his starting WRs to begin last year were Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harris.  Those three are still around, none of them will start and there’s a chance one or two of them don’t make the roster. Michael Thomas is back to claim his #1 WR spot on the outside.  They drafted Chris Olave to give them a major playmaker and they signed Jarvis Landry to be the chain mover in the slot.  TE Adam Trautman had a nice October and November before he missed some time at the end of the year.  Also, Taysom Hill as a QB is officially dead and the team is going to try him at TE and maybe use him as a skill position weapon on offense. Winston has way more to work with now than he did to start last year. 

Alvin Kamara had a tough year last season with the offense being on his shoulders.  He had 240 rushes last year and only 47 catches.  That was almost 50 more rushes than his previous career high and about half the passes you want him catching.  Kamara is not a traditional “pound-the-rock” RB, he needs to be in space.  They didn’t have a better option so he got stuck in a bad role.  They still don’t have great options for a traditional back but Mark Ingram II is back after coming home in a trade last season.  They signed Malcolm Brown, they still have Tony Jones Jr. and I think they are ripe for picking up someone’s veteran castoff at some point.  Kamara shouldn’t get 240 rushes this season if they want to succeed. 

The offensive line returns intact after Terron Armstead missed most of last season and now he’s off to Miami.  James Hurst will likely be the starting LT to start the year unless rookie Trevor Penning can beat him out.  It’s going to be hard to do if he keeps getting kicked out of practice for fighting, someone needs to tell him these guys are on his side.  The rest of the line just needs to stay healthy.  LG Andrus Peat, C Eric McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz and RT Ryan Ramczyk are all quite talented players when they play.  Ruiz struggled at times last year but he’s still their best option at RG. 

Dennis Allen turned around the Saints defense the minute he got there and there is no reason to think they won’t be good.  He’s still relying on a few older vets but these guys can play.  Starting up front with DE Cameron Jordan going into his twelfth year, he’s a still a menace.  He’s the guy that scares everyone up front.  Marcus Davenport missed time early in the year but he finally started to show his promise after a pretty lackluster three years.  He might be the guy they thought they were getting when they traded up for him in the first round of the 2018 draft.  Shy Tuttle and David Onyemata aren’t game wreckers but they are tough in the middle and make life easier for the guys around them. 

LB Demario Davis is still the picture of consistency going into year eleven and he’s the QB of this defense.  He’s a tackling machine and makes plays everywhere.  The team really only uses two LBs because Allen uses a lot of nickel defense so Pete Werner is the other LB who plays a lot.  The team has some depth with Zack Baun and Andrew Dowell but keep an eye on D’Marco Jackson.  He’s a small-school guy who’s a little undersized but he has Demario Davis vibes.

Allen likes to have options in his secondary and he’s got lots of options in this secondary.  Marshon Lattimore can be one of the best corners in the league.  He wasn’t quite at his best last year but he still has it in him.  Paulson Adebo locked down the other starting CB spot and he was pretty good.  Allen likes five DBs and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is their nickel guy.  He’s a CB/S hybrid and he plays a lot of snaps for this team.  They needed new safeties after Marcus Williams left in free agency and Malcolm Jenkins retired.  They signed Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu as their starters.  Allen will love their versatility.  They also have plenty of backup options for Allen to choose from.  PJ Williams is still around at CB and they drafted Alontae Taylor, a very intriguing rookie. Also, they still have Bradley Roby somehow.  They signed Daniel Sorensen (I don’t know why) as depth at safety. 

Carolina Panthers

Somehow the Panthers have the #1 and #3 picks from the 2018 draft on their roster and it’s not really a good thing.  They finally pulled off the trade for Baker Mayfield once Mayfield took a pay cut and the Brown picked up most of the rest of the contract.  Now Mayfield becomes the likely starter over Sam Darnold after Darnold was pretty bad last year. This offense has a chance to be good if they get good QB play, I’m not sure if they will get good QB play.  I’ve never been a Mayfield fan but he’s better than Darnold (as long as his shoulder is okay).   

Mayfield could find this WR group to actually be better than the one he was playing with at the end of his time in Cleveland.  DJ Moore is an underutilized talent.  Somehow, Moore has never scored more than four TDs in a season, that’s an insane stat for a guy who has had over 1100 receiving yards each of the last three years.  Robbie Anderson may not have been excited to have Mayfield become his QB but maybe he should be.  Darnold has yet to be great and maybe if Mayfield is more consistent Anderson can get back to being a productive receiver.  Terrace Marshall Jr. is a talented guy who just never got going last year.  They also signed Rashard Higgins, a guy who always had a little connection to Mayfield in Cleveland.  Tommy Tremble can be a more productive TE with a more consistent QB. 

RB Christian McCaffrey is the engine to this offense.  He has essentially missed the last two seasons and they need to keep him healthy.  It would help if they don’t give him 1000 touches like they did back in 2019, I understand it’s tempting to give him the ball every play but it’s just not smart.  They do have Chuba Hubbard and now they signed D’Onta Foreman after he played so well in place of Derrick Henry in Tennessee last year.  They have to let those guys handle some of the workload. 

The offensive line was atrocious last season which is why they will likely have four new starters this year.  RT Taylor Moton is the only returning starter and that’s because he’s actually pretty good.  LT Ikem Ekwonu was their first-round pick and he’s going to be a stud, you’re going to have to give him a minute with the pass blocking, but he’ll get there.  He’ll be their first steady starter at LT in quite a while.  C Bradley Bozeman was signed from Baltimore and he should stabilize that spot.  RG Austin Corbett started for the Super Bowl winning Rams and he got a nice big contract in free agency.  The LG spot is going to have some competition.  Pat Elflein is an uninspiring veteran choice, his versatility means he can be the backup guard and center.  Brady Christiansen could win the job but I think he’s the swing tackle.  I think rookie Cade Mays will end up the best option.  He was a sixth-round pick but he’s really tough. It could be scary starting two rookies on the left side but it can’t be worse than their starters there last year. 

The Panthers’ defense wasn’t very good last year.  It’s possible it was the personnel, it’s possible it was the scheme and the coaching, and it’s possible that the offense was so bad it put the defense in terrible position.  It’s actually all of those things. The front four is led by DE Brian Burns.  He had a solid year with nine sacks but he has yet to really break out.  He has the talent; now can they unleash him.  Yetur Gross-Matos is the other starting end, he’s solid but doesn’t excel as a pass rusher so he isn’t taking much pressure off of Burns.  They need someone to help at end.  Derrick Brown is a big man on the inside they would like to see make more plays.  They signed Matt Ioannidis to be the other starting DT because Bravvion Roy and Daviyon Nixon haven’t proven to be ready. 

The LBs are a work in progress.  Shaq Thompson is the only sure thing as long as he’s healthy.  They had veteran Corey Littleton last year, he was fine but not great.  They signed Damien Wilson to play MLB. He’s generally productive but hardly inspiring.  The secondary is where the true upside resides.  CB Jaycee Horn only played in three games before he was lost for the season, he’s got true #1 CB potential.  Donte Jackson is a solid #2 CB and they are hoping their trade for former first-round pick CJ Henderson pays off and gives them a solid trio.  SS Jeremy Chinn is a unique athlete that I’m not quite sure they have figured out how to use just yet.  FS Xavier Woods is a new addition and he should be solid on the back end.  I’m not sure if this defense is holding this team back because they aren’t good or if this team is holding this defense back because they aren’t good.  We may have to wait for them to replace the coaching staff to find out. 

Atlanta Falcons

This Falcons team is pretty rough and it starts at QB.  They traded Matt Ryan and they signed Marcus Mariota to be the stopgap starter.  Mariota has been the backup for the Raiders for a couple of years and he’s not a great choice to start.  They drafted Desmond Ridder but they seem committed to Mariota, this is clearly a team looking for a high draft pick next year.  Arthur Smith has a type of receiver he likes, big.  Last year the team drafted TE Kyle Pitts, essentially a 6’6 receiver that they played outside quite a bit.  This year they drafted Drake London, a 6’4 WR with the versatility to play inside or outside so they can move him around with Pitts.  They traded for Bryan Edwards, a big 6’3 WR from the Raiders. They also signed Auden Tate, a 6’5 WR, that’s not a coincidence.  Olamide Zaccheaus is a small WR they plan to use but that will likely be because they don’t have a ton of choices, it’s not a great depth chart.

The running game looks to be in the hands of Cordarrelle Patterson again after he was the surprise last season.  He had never been a full-time RB until the Falcons had no other choices last year and he excelled at it. They have some help this year with Damian Williams and rookie Tyler Allgeier.  They aren’t great but they can play.  The offensive line has stalwart LT Jake Matthews returning.  C Matt Hennessey also returns to start.  They desperately need the other three spots to get healthy.  RG Chris Lindstrom and RT Kaleb McGary simply haven’t stayed healthy enough to show their talent and they are running out of time.  Both were first-round picks in 2019 and they are quickly approaching the end of their rookie contracts, it’s now or never to prove they are worth keeping around.  LG Jalen Mayfield is fighting a back issue with Bears’ castoff Elijah Wilkinson set to replace him.  If you’re playing a guy the Bears let walk, you should reconsider your life’s direction. 

As bad as I think the Atlanta offense might be, the defense is going to be worse.  Up front they have Grady Jarrett, and while he’s pretty good, they have very little else.  Marlon Davidson has some talent but he simply doesn’t play enough.  Ta’Quon Graham is young guy trying to figure it out and while Anthony Rush looks the part of a nose tackle, he’s bounced around a lot for a reason.  It’s going to be a long year for Jarrett. 

The LB corps is better but still not great.  They have some solid pros but not a lot of playmakers.  Deion Jones should be one ILB as long as he’s healthy.  They signed Rashaad Evans from Tennessee to give them a solid guy inside next to Jones.  Evans isn’t a game breaker but he’s consistent.  They also drafted Troy Andersen, a small-school guy with some upside.  At OLB, they signed Lorenzo Carter from the Giants.  He’s solid but he doesn’t set the world on fire as a pass rusher.  They drafted Arnold Ebiketie and while he might take a minute to adjust to the NFL, he has high upside as a pass rusher, certainly more than anyone else on this roster. 

The secondary has some talent at the CB position. AJ Terrell developed into a top-notch cover guy last season and they added Casey Hayward in free agency.  Hayward is getting older but he’s been pretty consistent over the last several years which is more than can be said for Isaiah Oliver, their other CB.  Richie Grant, Dean Marlowe, Jaylinn Hawkins, Erik Harris is an underwhelming group at safety but there is competition.  If Grant and Hawkins can play up to their potential, the secondary could be the strength of the defense.  It’s a low bar but you have to start somewhere.     

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams went all in for a Super Bowl last year and they won it, now they will try to repeat and they have a lot of guys back.  Matthew Stafford proved he can win as long as he’s not in Detroit.  They put a ton of talent around him and he actually raised the games of some of his guys.  Cooper Kupp had a ridiculous season last year winning the receiving triple crown (receptions, yards, and TDs).  He and Stafford found a connection that is incredible.  He’s arguably the best WR in the league.  Odell Beckham was really good after signing with the team and helped them get to the Super Bowl, but he injured his knee and still hasn’t signed anywhere. The Rams aren’t waiting around, they went out and got Allen Robinson.  Robinson will be a great addition and regardless of his lackluster year in Chicago last year, I think he still has plenty in the tank.  Van Jefferson should be their third guy although he had knee surgery that is going to keep him out a few weeks.  I could see this team re-signing Beckham later in the year if they don’t find any depth before he’s ready to play.  TE Tyler Higbee is a solid player.

The running game should be better with Cam Akers back after a healthy offseason.  He came back in record time after his Achilles injury.  He’s a really good back and they still have Derrell Henderson Jr. backing him up.  The line has a bit of a shake up as Andrew Whitworth retired and Austin Corbett left in free agency.  Joe Noteboom is a young guy they clearly like because they made no effort to find any other replacement for Whitworth at LT.  The OG position was going to have a little competition as Bobby Evans and David Edwards are the holdovers and the team drafted Logan Bruss but he’s out for the year already. It’s actually fourth-year man Coleman Shelton holding down the RG spot with Edwards at LG. C Brian Allen and RT Rob Havenstein return, they aren’t All-Pro guys but they are solid. 

The defense features the best defensive player in the league (no offense to TJ Watt and his DPOY award), Aaron Donald.  He’s simply the most dominate defensive presence in the NFL.  They also have the best defensive back in the NFL, Jalen Ramsey.  It really helps your team when you have two of the three or four best defensive players in the league on your defense.  Donald is joined up front by A’Shawn Robinson and Greg Gaines, solid players but not game wreckers.  They are going to miss Sebastian Joseph-Day. 

The LBs are led by Leonard Floyd on the outside, he’s really found his stride with the Rams.  They are going to miss Von Miller unless either Justin Hollins (the presumed other starter) or Terrell Lewis really break out.  The team did add Bobby Wagner inside and he’s one of the best MLBs the league has ever seen.  He is 32 but the Rams are all about winning now and they don’t care how long he’s around.  He’s an upgrade for them now, that’s what matters.  Ernest Jones played well for them last year so they like him just fine. 

The secondary is built around Jalen Ramsey’s incredible skills.  He can basically play any position in the secondary and he can even play like a LB at times.  They have built the rest of the group with flexibility in mind so they can move Ramsey where he’s needed most and other can fill in around him.  They brought back Troy Hill after his one-year experiment in Cleveland, he knows this defense and he can play inside or outside.  They also have David Long Jr and Robert Rochell to throw out there at CB.  Taylor Rapp, Jordan Fuller, and Nick Scott give them options at safety.  They can do a lot of the same things and give them flexibility when they move Ramsey to the slot or into the box.  Ramsey makes the whole thing work, he’s one of the best defensive backs ever. 

San Francisco 49ers

This is sort of a “believe it before I see it” pick.  The fact that Trey Lance is a major unknown is working in the 49ers favor here.  I know I don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray in Arizona and I’m not betting on a Seattle team led by Geno Smith.  So here we are.  The 49ers want us to believe Trey Lance is their QB superstar of the future.  I’m more willing to bet that they can make him good enough to come in second in the division with Shanahan’s running game and that defense.  Lance gets a happy Deebo Samuel (a new big contract will do that for you), TE George Kittle (hopefully staying healthy), WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Elijah Mitchell and FB Kyle Juszczyk (yep, Shanahan still uses the fullback, it’s like he’s from a different century).

Mitchell was the find last year as he stepped in after a myriad of injuries depleted the RB room.  Mitchell gets the advantage of running in Shanahan’s RB friendly offense and running behind some good to great o-linemen.  LT Trent Williams is arguably the best in the league (and until Green Bay’s David Bakhtiari is healthy, it’s not an argument).  RT Mike McGlinchey is pretty solid too.  The middle of the line is in flux because C Alex Mack retired and G Laken Tomlinson left in free agency.  That would leave Daniel Brunskill as the only returner inside but he’s already being replaced by rookie Spencer Burford.  Jake Brendel will get a crack at center and Aaron Banks was a high draft pick two years ago and should get a chance at one guard spot. It’s not an elite group to say the least but if there is any coach who’s going to figure out his offensive line, it’s Kyle Shanahan. 

The defense is built off their strength up front but they need some guys to get healthy for that to work out for them.  DE Nick Bosa finally got healthy last season and broke out with 15.5 sacks and looks like the star they drafted him to be.  He has top five pass rusher written all over him.  Arik Armstead is a mainstay, he’s banged up at the beginning of camp, they really need him to be healthy all year.  DT Javon Kinlaw missed most of last season and they need him to bring his considerable size and talent to the interior.  Samson Ebukam is the veteran pass rusher opposite Bosa but watch out for rookie Drake Jackson.  He’s a talented kid who just needed to get away from the terrible coaching he got a USC, now he can really show what he can do. 

They build everything off of the strength of their line because they play three LBs who are 230 lbs. or less.  MLB Fred Warner is one of the best in the business (he might be the best).  He flies around like a missile and destroys offenses.  Dre Greenlaw does pretty much the same thing, he just gets less credit because Warner is awesome. Azeez Al-Shaair is similar in size and style he’s just not as good as Warner or Greenlaw. 

The secondary is where things get a little rough.  They did sign Charvarius Ward at one CB spot, he’s a legit NFL starter.  Emmanuel Moseley is solid but is a guy you’re almost always looking to replace but he’s just good enough to hold off the other options.  They did re-sign Jason Verrett who was hurt last year, he’s hurt every year. There are three things in this world you can count on; death, taxes, and Jason Verrett getting injured.  Jimmie Ward returns at one safety spot, he’s 31, he’s not elite but he’s versatile and steady.  The let Jaquiski Tartt go and they have George Odom or Talanoa Hufanga to replace him, I have no idea if that’s good or bad.  I do know that replacing Tartt isn’t exactly asking to replace Ronnie Lott, the bar is much lower. 

Arizona Cardinals

I don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury.  I don’t trust Kyler Murray.  I don’t trust the offensive line to hold up all year.  And I really don’t trust this defense.  Murray may do some dazzling things on the field but he doesn’t always do the mundane things you have to do to play winning football.  I’ve never been a big fan of Kingsbury as a coach and he hasn’t done anything to change my mind.  This team will be without WR DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of the season, while they may think they have a good replacement in Marquise Brown, I don’t see it.  They already have a small, speedy WR in Rondale Moore and they proved last season they had no idea how to use him.  Anyone with Moore’s skills shouldn’t average only eight yards a catch.  The offense might give Brown more opportunities but I’m not sold on that production being useful.  Once Hopkins returns, what’s Brown’s role then?  They also have AJ Green back.  Zach Ertz was re-signed and they drafted Trey McBride, the best TE in the draft, for an offense that generally wasn’t built to use TEs they now have two.  They used Ertz a lot last season after he was acquired from Philadelphia and now, they have to try to incorporate more TE usage.  I really don’t know where this offense is going.

James Connor was a touchdown machine last year.  He didn’t have a ton of yardage but he made the most of his touches.  He had 15 rushing and three receiving TDs.  He’s a good back who’s a tough runner and he’s useful in the passing game.  His TDs are going to regress, there’s no way he’s going to stay that effective at scoring, but he could be a bigger part of the offense overall.  The offensive line is aging.  RG Will Hernandez is the only real young guy and he’s a castoff from the Giants after a few rough years in New York.  LT DJ Humphries is pretty good and he’ll only be 29 at the end of the year, the rest of the line is well past their prime.  LG Justin Pugh is 32, C Rodney Hudson is 33, and RT Kelvin Beachem is also 33.  There’s not much depth and if injuries happen, they’re in trouble. 

This defense leaves a lot to be desired.  Up front they still have JJ Watt.  He’s a big name but he’s well past his time as a game changer.  He played in seven games last year and had one sack, unfortunately, that makes him one of the better pass rushers they still have.  Zach Allen is the other DE and he had four sacks in 15 games, which is a career high for him.  Rashard Lawrence and Leki Fotu are the nose tackles and they don’t pass rush at all. 

Chandler Jones left for Las Vegas leaving Markus Golden and his 11 sacks as the only pass rushing threat left.  Golden had a solid year but in his eight-year career he’s only had double digit sacks three times and it’s never happened twice in a row.  The other OLB spot is either Devon Kennard or Dennis Gardeck at the moment unless they turn to a rookie like Myjai Sanders or Cameron Thomas.  It’s not a great place to be.  Their last two first round picks were ILB Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons.  They need both those guys to turn it on because spending back-to-back first-round picks on ILBs is pretty crazy when you think about it.  I’m not sure they have the most faith in them either consider they signed veterans Nick Vigil and Ben Niemann, not household names but guys you could turn to if Collins or Simmons fail. 

The secondary is a mishmash.  FS Budda Baker is one of the better safeties in football and CB Byron Murphy Jr. had a good year.  SS Jalen Thompson put up some big tackle numbers but that will happen when the guys in front of you aren’t very good (I’m talking about the entire front seven).  They ended up playing Marco Wilson a lot last year and he looked like the fourth-round pick he was.  He was fine at times but he had his struggles.  They need another CB so bad they are even taking a flyer on former 2018 Green Bay second round flame out Josh Jackson.  He’s bounced around a bit since the Packers gave up on him but here he is.  He hasn’t been good but if there is anywhere he could stick on the roster, this might be his only chance.

Seattle Seahawks

As much as I don’t trust Kingsbury, Murray, the o-line or the defense in Arizona, I can’t see them finishing behind a team with Geno Smith (or Drew Lock) at QB.  If you’re a Seattle Seahawks fan and you’re just taking the season off from watching football, no one will blame you.  One reason the NFL can’t make “tanking” illegal is that it’s hard to prove a team is trying to lose.  Having Geno Smith, Drew Lock, a Jacob Eason as your three QBs might be the closest anyone has ever come to having actual proof a team is trying to lose.  Geno Smith hasn’t regularly started games since 2014, Drew Lock never should have regularly started games and Eason never will regularly start games.  It’s really unfortunate because WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are actually a really good pair of receivers to waste.  They also added TE Noah Fant in the Russell Wilson trade, which gives them three really good pass catchers, although that’s all they have, the rest of the WR/TE group is pretty rough.  (And don’t try to sell me on TE Will Dissly)

The running game took a hit when Chris Carson was forced to retire due to his neck injury but the Seahawks knew it was coming and planned accordingly.  They re-signed Rashad Penny after he had a great five out of the last six games last season.  They only gave him a one-year deal but that’s because his first three seasons in the league were awful.  They also drafted Kenneth Walker III in round two of the draft.  He’s really talented and he’s the future at the position.  The team also finally addressed the OT position in draft after putting veteran band-aids on the spot for far too long.  LT Charles Cross is an immediate starter and while Jake Curhan is currently penciled in at RT, it’s only a matter of time before Abraham Lucas takes that job.  The team signed C Austin Blythe and it seems he’ll battle Kyle Fuller for the starting job there.  Gabe Jackson and Damien Lewis return at the guard spots, they are solid players.

It’s going to be a transition year for the Seahawks defense.  Well, let’s be honest, it’s probably going to take more than one year.  This is probably going to have more of a 3-4 look to it although it’s a little bit of a hybrid look in the front seven.  The personnel fits the 3-4 better for sure.  DE Shelby Harris came over in the Russell Wilson trade and he’s been on a three-man line for a while in Denver.  Al Woods and Poona Ford can be DTs but they fit the three-man front just fine.  None of these guys are particularly great pass rushers but Harris can get there on occasion. 

The LBs are missing Bobby Wagner after a decade of elite play from him.  He has moved on to the Rams and the team is hoping Jordyn Brooks can step into his role on the field and as a leader.  Cody Barton is the most likely ILB with Brooks.  Darrell Taylor was always an OLB/DE tweener and now he can play OLB with newly signed Uchenna Nwosu on the other side.  They also drafted Boye Mafe from Minnesota and he gives them a guy they hope can be a double-digit sack guy since none of these other guys have proven to do that.  One guy to watch out for, rookie fifth-round pick Tyreke Smith, he could have some pass rushing chops. 

The secondary features SS Jamal Adams.  They are paying him a ton of money and they paid a hefty price to trade for him two years ago.  They have to get more out of him even if he isn’t great as a coverage guy.  He is an effective blitzer when used correctly.  FS Quandre Diggs is an underrated guy who covers for a lot of mistakes on this defense.  The CB spot is in far worse shape.  Tre Brown and Sidney Jones might be penciled in as starters if they weren’t hurt and that’s not a great thing.  Artie Burns is still somehow earning a paycheck in the NFL too.  Justin Coleman is supposed to be a good nickel corner but you have to have guys playing well on the outside for that to matter.  I think they should give rookies Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen a really long look.         

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have built the most complete roster in the NFL over the last several seasons and they put the finishing touches on this offseason.  It’s now or never for the Bills to make a run to the Super Bowl and they are rightfully one of the favorites to do so.  It starts with potential MVP candidate QB Josh Allen.  He has progressed every year of his career and he did everything he could do to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs last season and then his defense and a coin took his victory away.  He’s ready, and so is this offense.  WR Stefon Diggs is one of the best in the NFL He and Allen are a dynamic pair.  Gabriel Davis looks poised to step up as the second option and Isaiah McKenzie was quite good when he stepped into the slot role last year.  TE Dawson Knox was a TD machine and he’s become a reliable target Allen really trusts.  The team also signed OJ Howard at TE and while he’s always been more potential than production, they hope he changes that in Buffalo. 

The running game was basically Allen or bust until the last five weeks of the season when Devin Singletary finally decided to show up.  The Bills will still be a pass heavy offense but they need to balance it out a little bit.  Singletary is a solid back and they are hoping Zack Moss can rediscover whatever it was he lost last year when he was ineffective.  They also drafted RB James Cook, probably the best pass catching RB in the draft.  He could have a huge part in this offense with his skillset.  The line returns three starters, LT Dion Dawkins, RT Spencer Brown, and center Mitch Morse.  They were clearly unhappy with the guard play as they signed veterans Ryan Bates and Roger Saffold, both should start. 

The defense collapsed last year in the last 14 seconds of the playoff game and overtime against Patrick Mahomes.  It’s hard to completely blame them, it was Patrick Mahomes after all, however, if they get a stop this team would have been playing in the Super Bowl.  Under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier they play multiple fronts and often in nickel so they need versatility.  Enter Super Bowl Champion Von Miller.  Miller has been an elite pass rusher his entire career and even though he’s 33 he proved last year when he joined the Rams mid-season, he’s still got something left.  He brings valuable experience to a pass rushing group that is quite young.  Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, and Boogie Basham are all young DEs.  The DTs are Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones.  Oliver is the smaller, quicker guy while Jones brings serious size. 

The team mostly deploys two LBs and uses five defensive backs but with Miller around he can slide back and they can use others up front if necessary.  MLB Tremaine Edmunds is big, fast, and athletic.  He does a little bit of everything and he’s a leader on defense.  Matt Milano is the other do-everything LB.  He and Edmunds are a dynamic duo. 

The secondary will welcome back CB Tre’Davious White from injury, he’s one of the better CBs in the league and fits what Buffalo does perfectly.  He’s been waiting years for an above average partner and the team spent a first-round pick on Florida CB Kaiir Elam, he is an excellent match.  Dane Jackson is listed as the starter early in camp but Elam will win this job eventually.  Elam and White are going to be a tough duo to beat.  Taron Johnson is an underrated nickel corner and he gives them three excellent cornerbacks.  The safeties are Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.  Generally, Poyer is the SS and Hyde is the FS but, in this defense, these two are essentially interchangeable and that’s what makes them so good.  Neither gets the credit of some of the top safeties in the league but they work so well together it’s like they are one great player playing two positions.

New England Patriots

The Patriots found there new QB last year in Mac Jones and they are starting to surround him with legitimate playmakers to make him better.  The real question is whether they have the coaching staff around to help him after Josh McDaniels left for Las Vegas and took some of the offensive staff with him.  Matt Patricia (the former defensive coordinator) and Joe Judge (the former special teams coordinator) are now running the offensive staff, it’s a concerning development.  I do like the way they are building their WR corps.  The brought in DeVante Parker, he’s a big, physical X receiver.  Kendrick Bourne proved to be a good deep threat and Jakobi Meyers is an excellent slot receiver.  They are really good complements to each other.  They also drafted Tyquan Thornton (even if it was a little too high) and he adds a top-level speed threat, although he’ll miss the first half of the season with a broken clavicle.  Nelson Agholor is still around (he’s a possible trade candidate) and they like youngster Tre Nixon.  Hunter Henry proved to be a reliable target at TE for Mac Jones but they would really like to get Jonnu Smith going too, he can be a playmaker in this offense. 

The running game will be handled by Damien Harris most of the time but he tends to get banged up and that means Rhamondre Stevenson will get plenty of use.  It’s not a bad setup unless you have one of them as your fantasy running back.  James White was supposed to be the pass catching back but he retired.  They drafted Pierre Strong Jr. and signed Ty Montgomery and I think Stevenson might get some of the third-down work.    

The offensive line returns four starters but they might not all be back where they were last year.  In training camp, the team has been playing Trent Brown at LT and Isaiah Wynn at RT.  Wynn needs to stay healthy if he wants to continue his career because he’s become unreliable due to injury.  Michael Onwenu will likely move to RG to replace Shaq Mason while center David Andrews returns in the pivot.  The one new guy is LG Cole Strange, their first-round pick.  He was drafted too high (it was a theme for their draft) but they need him to start at guard.  They don’t have a lot of depth with Justin Herron as their swing tackle and James Ferentz backing up on the interior as the only sure things.  Yodney Cajuste is making a late play for Wynn’s job, I wouldn’t be against that move.

The defense had plenty of issues last season but most of them weren’t up front.  Deatrich Wise Jr., Davon Godchaux, and Lawrence Guy are three very solid players up front.  Godchaux got a little extension because he was good.  Wise and Guy know what they’re doing and that’s mostly what the team asks given the multiple fronts they run.  Guy is getting a little older but the team drafted Christian Barmore last year and he had a good rookie year.  He can play multiple spots so he’s great depth. 

The LB corps wasn’t great last season.  OLB Matt Judon started off the season well but tailed off towards the end when the defense was falling apart.  Kyle Van Noy was effective for some of the year but now he’s gone and as great as Dont’a Hightower was in his Patriot’s career he was awful last year after sitting out the 2020 season due to Covid concerns.  He’s a free agent who hasn’t signed anywhere and the team has moved on.  Chase Winovich was traded meaning they need one of the young guys to step up at OLB and it looks like they are counting on Josh Uche to be that guy.  He looked like he had potential as a rookie two years ago and then had a sophomore slump last year.  They also have Ronnie Perkins, a rookie last year who didn’t play, and Anfernee Jennings, a versatile member of the LB corps.  Any production from either of them would be an improvement over last year.  The ILBs were even worse than the OLB last year.  Hightower was awful and Ja’Whaun Bentley is simply overmatched, he’s a limited player that Belichick seems to love.  They got Mack Wilson in the Winovich trade, he adds some speed and athleticism.  Raekwon McMillan and Cameron McGrone both missed last year with injury and my sincere hope is they step up this year.  McGrone brings the type of athleticism this team has been missing inside for years. 

The secondary took a massive hit with the departure of JC Jackson in free agency.  They brought back Malcolm Butler who wasn’t looking great in camp and then went on injured reserve.  They signed Terrance Mitchell to pair with Jalen Mills and those two starting at CB is a scary thought.  Jonathan Jones is a great slot corner but no one is going to attack the slot if Mitchell and Mills are the outside corners. They are experimenting with Jonathan Jones outside and hopefully that will stick.  The team drafted two corners, Marcus Jones and Jack Jones (I know, that’s a lot of Joneses at CB), they are both undersized and I’m not counting on either to make a huge impact.  Marcus Jones could play the slot if Jonathan Jones can prove he’s solid outside.  I’m not optimistic. 

The safety position is in far better shape.  Devin McCourty may be 35 this year but he’s still excellent.  Kyle Duggar stepped up as a big safety last season and Adrian Phillips is quite good too.  They also signed Jabrill Peppers, and while he’s coming off a knee injury, he could be quite good in Belichick’s defense.  They also really like Joshuah Bledsoe, who’s having an excellent start to training camp.  Maybe they should just play five safeties and no CBs, it’s a whole new defensive approach. 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are one of the teams who made major improvements to their offensive personnel in order to find out if the QB they have is the QB they should keep.  They also got a new head coach who’s bringing in a new offensive system.  Mike McDaniel comes from Kyle Shanahan coaching tree in San Francisco so we have some idea of the type of offense he’ll run.  It should be a bit more run heavy but they didn’t go out and trade for WR Tyreek Hill to use him as a decoy.  Hill joins Jaylen Waddle and free agent signee Cedric Wilson in a rebuilt WR corps.  Add in TE Mike Gesicki and Tua Tagovailoa has no reason to fail at QB.  He hasn’t been good his first few years but that may have been due to the offensive coaching staff’s failures.  As good of a head coach and defensive mind as Brian Flores was in Miami, he never had a settled offensive staff and that works against a young QB.  Hill is a game breaker, while Waddle was excellent as a rookie last year.  He already has a good chemistry with Tua.  Cedric Wilson is a very solid third WR. 

The other thing working against a young QB is an inconsistent running game behind a poor offensive line.  You can’t say the Dolphins haven’t been trying to put together a good o-line, they just haven’t been successful at it.  Enter LT Terron Armstead, a truly excellent LT if he’s healthy.  He allows them to move some other pieces around.  Liam Eichenberg can move inside to LG while they try Austin Jackson at RT.  They also signed Connor Williams from Dallas and they plan to install him at center, a new position for him.  That leaves guys like Solomon Kingsley, Robert Hunt, and Michael Deiter to fight for the RG spot.  The team also signed RB Raheem Mostert from San Francisco (McDaniels’ old team) along with Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel to built an almost entirely new RB corps.  Myles Gaskin returns but if they wanted Myles Gaskin to be the RB, they wouldn’t have signed three free agents.   

The defense was excellent under Brian Flores and his defensive coordinator Josh Boyer so Mike McDaniel did the smart thing and he kept Boyer around.  They return most of the defense and the scheme so they should be pretty good.  Zach Sieler, Raekwon Davis, and Christian Wilkins make a really solid trio up front.  Wilkins is the tone-setter and he probably doesn’t get the recognition he deserves as a playmaker.  Emmanuel Ogbah had another good year at OLB and Andrew Van Ginkel is solid on the other side.  Rookie Jaelen Phillips was excellent as a pass rushing specialist and he should only get better.  They also signed Melvin Ingram III to get some more depth.  Jerome Baker is quite good at ILB and Elandon Roberts is fine but he’s not great. 

The secondary features two of the most expensive CBs in football, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.  The spendy duo do a great job and they make things easier for the rest of the defense.  However, the CB spot isn’t very deep as Nik Needham is their only real depth.  At safety, Brandon Jones and Jevon Holland have taken over, they are a young but talented pair.  Eric Rowe is the depth; I don’t like Rowe but I guess they still do.

New York Jets

The Jets are one of the other teams trying to surround their QB with talent to give him the best opportunity to succeed.  The difference is, they didn’t wait very long, Zack Wilson is only in year two.  Wilson has all the physical talent you could want, now he just has to put it all together with this offense.  That process hit a snag when he injured his knee in the preseason but he shouldn’t be out too long.  Corey Davis is a solid veteran to rely on.  Elijah Moore got off to a slow start last year as a rookie but he really came on in the second half of the season.  They added Garrett Wilson in the draft to complete the trio and they all fill a role quite well.  Davis is the big, outside guy, Moore can dominate in the slot but also flip outside if needed, and Wilson is dynamic on the perimeter and can also dominate in the slot.  The team knew they needed to get Wilson a nice security blanket too so they signed TE CJ Uzomah from the Bengals, he’s pretty good. 

Speaking of security blankets for young QBs, nothing is better than a good RB, especially one who can catch out of the backfield, enter Breece Hall.  He’s the perfect back for the zone running scheme the Jets use and he’s a natural pass catcher who knows how to get yardage once he has the ball.  Hall is the immediate starter and makes Michael Carter the backup, a better role for him.  The offensive line is where things get interesting.  They wanted to flip-flop OT Mekhi Becton and OG Alijah Vera-Tucker from the left side to the right side.  Only half of that is happening because Becton was lost to an injury for the season, that sucks for this team.  Vera-Tucker moves because the team signed Laken Tomlinson in free agency and they want him at LG.  George Fant played LT after Becton got hurt last year and they planned to give him the job until Becton got hurt this year.  They signed veteran Duane Brown after Becton’s injury and he’s a LT so Fant will go back to RT.  Connor McGovern is the center; they hope he isn’t the weak link. 

The Jets defense was pretty rough last year.  The secondary was a mess, they had some key injuries, and they just didn’t have enough talent.  Up front they lost their big free agent pass rusher Carl Lawson before the season even began.  He’s back and that should help a lot.  John Franklin-Myers did a solid job but he was mostly working alone.  Now they also added Jermaine Johnson in the draft and he’ll really juice the pass rush.  Quinnen Williams is underappreciated inside and Sheldon Rankins is solid too. 

At LB, CJ Mosley finally played after injuries and Covid knocked him out for almost two seasons.  He’s still a tackling machine and they need his leadership.  Quincy Williams mans the other usual LB spot and the team just signed Kwon Alexander hoping to add some talent at the position.  Lamarcus Joyner technically returns but he only played in one game last year and Ashtyn Davis will compete with him for the SS spot, he really hasn’t distinguished himself so far.  The rest of the starting lineup is new.  CB Sauce Gardner was added in the draft, while CB DJ Reed comes in as a free agent along with FS Jordan Whitehead.  Gardner has #1 traits and Reed is a very talented #2.  This pushes Bryce Hall and the other Michael Carter (not the RB) down the depth chart, that’s a good thing.  Hall can play but he’s miscast as the top CB on any team.