The NFL scouting combine really shouldn’t change a prospects rating very much unless it reveals a real medical issue or a guy shows some serious character issues during the interview process.  However, that’s not the reality of the situation. The athletic testing can make teams overlook playing issues they see on film by making them believe “we can fix that issue because he’s such a good athlete”.  Someone falls for it almost every year, this year it’s going to happen with Anthony Richardson, the only question is, how high does he go? 

Richardson is a freak athlete, we already knew that, but he is 6’4, he is 244 lbs., he ran 4.43 in the 40, and he set the record for the vertical (40.5 inches) and broad jump (10’9) for QBs.  He has a cannon for an arm and he looked good during the on field throwing session.  All of that means someone is going to take a chance on him and hope they hit the lottery.  There were others who helped themselves with good testing numbers; CB DJ Turner from Michigan had the fastest 40 time at 4.26, he’s still undersized but the dude can run.  Nolan Smith is an edge rusher from Georgia who ran 4.39 at 238 lbs., he’s a little light for an edge but he you can’t teach speed. As much as it shouldn’t matter, the combine numbers do matter, it’s a fact of life.

I’m going to go a little crazy with this mock draft because this draft just feels a little out there. I’m calling a number of trades early, spicing it up because this thing needs a little of that.  Here goes nothing.   

1. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE from Chicago):  Anthony Richardson     QB     Florida

This would be an overreaction to the combine results but I could see this happening.  The Bears want to trade out of this spot but there hasn’t been a QB prospect that really excites anyone so the offers haven’t been pouring in so far.  What the Bears needed was a prospect to get some buzz (hello Mr. Richardson) and they need a team owner who is desperate and impulsive (hello Jim Irsay).  Irsay wants to fix the Colts QB spot but it has been hard to believe GM Chris Ballard would trade up for Bryce Young considering Ballard’s affinity for bigger players.  Richardson should probably sit for a year but if the Colts move up to get him, he starts day one.  New head coach Shane Steichen was the OC for the Eagles these last couple of years while they brought Jalen Hurts along and built a great offense around him. Steichen could do the same using Richardson’s elite athleticism while developing him as a passer.  He’s also big enough to take the hits behind an offensive line that needs some work, that is a major concern with taking Young.  I will say, I whole-heartedly disagree with this pick if it happens, I think Richardson has major bust potential.  However, with his athleticism in today’s game perhaps his bust potential isn’t as high as I think.  His ceiling is being Cam Newton when Newton was winning the MVP with the Carolina Panthers.  His floor is probably being Cam Newton when he was starting for Patriots, a guy who can keep the offense moving with his legs even if he’s only completing 50% of his passes.  Richardson doesn’t look like he has JaMarcus Russell bust potential because by all accounts, the kid works hard and wants to get better.    

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1):  Bryce Young     QB     Alabama

This would work out just fine for the Texans if the Colts move up for Richardson.  They are trying to redefine their franchise; they are trying to establish a new culture after a few very tumultuous years dealing with coaching changes and the Deshaun Watson saga.  They hired DeMeco Ryans to kick off this culture change and Bryce Young is the type of winner and leader to build it around.  I have serious questions about his frame and don’t tell me he’s fine because of his fake weight (204 lbs.) at the combine making him seem like he’s Kyler Murray size.  He will play at somewhere between 190-195 lbs. and we will just have to see if that holds up.  This team needs to invest in their offensive line to protect him and then rely on that line and RB Dameon Pierce to carry the offense, that will give Young the best chance to succeed.  There isn’t a team in the league that could use Young’s character and personality more than the Texans.  He can be a very good QB in the NFL, I just don’t know how long he can last.   

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Will Anderson Jr.     Edge     Alabama

The Jalen Carter revelation was the type of issue that can hurt a guy’s stock.  Carter was allegedly involved in the car accident a week after the National Championship game that killed two people.  He has been charged with reckless driving and leaving the scene of an accident but for now we don’t know if that is all he will be charged with.  For now, I have the Cardinals pivoting off of taking Carter to replace JJ Watt and grabbing Anderson, the top edge rushing threat in this draft.  The Cardinals desperately need pass rushing help so it’s an easy move for them. In he end, I’m not sure Carter’s potential involvement in the crash will hurt his stock, it’s going to be more about how he handles teams’ questions about it.  The Cardinals need talent and new GM Monti Ossenfort is unlikely to take a chance on someone he’s unsure of in his first draft, Anderson is the safer play here. 

4. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Chicago):  CJ Stroud     QB     Ohio St.

The Bears take advantage of teams desperate for QBs again and trade down to pick up even more assets.  The Raiders let Derek Carr walk, they aren’t likely players for Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady retired.  That’s leaves Jarrett Stidham at QB1 right now, that’s not ideal.  Here the Raiders move up a few spots and grab Stroud, the most accurate QB in the draft.  Stroud was considered a pure pocket passer throughout the season because he rarely pulls the ball down and runs.  He did show he has that ability during the playoff game against Georgia but it’s not his default, he would rather stand in the pocket, move around to buy some time and then find his guys downfield.  It is hard for teams to come up with a comp for Stroud but the truth is, he’s the athletic version of Tom Brady.  He’s pinpoint accurate, steady and unflappable in pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and he’s highly intelligent.  He is exactly what Josh McDaniels needs in his offense and if you put him on the field with Devante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs, he’s going to be elite. 

5. Carolina Panthers (TRADE from Seattle):  Will Levis     QB     Kentucky

It’s trade-a-palooza in the top five because everyone wants a QB because they don’t have one.  Seattle re-signs Geno Smith, kicks the QB can down the road, picks up Carolina’s first round pick next year and hopes they get in on the 2024 QB class instead.  The Panthers have needed a QB solution since Cam Newton left (the first time) and they move up to get Will Levis because he’s the last of the top four QBs.  Levis can start for Frank Reich’s offense.  The Panthers have a solid line, one top WR in DJ Moore, they can find a RB in the draft or free agency, and this draft is stocked with TEs they can grab later.  With the offensive coaching staff in place and some nice pieces around him, they would give Levis a chance to succeed immediately and Reich would finally have a young QB to build around, a luxury he never had in Indy. 

6. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams):  Christian Gonzalez     CB     Oregon

If Jalen Carter hasn’t gone at this point the Lions are going to have a major decision to make.  Carter might be the last piece to the puzzle of their defensive line but CB is a massive need. Gonzalez is a big athlete with great twitch and speed and could have a Sauce Gardner-like effect as a rookie.  Jeff Okudah played well last season but that’s one year out of four and they have a bunch of free agents at the position.  Carter’s legal issues are the tiebreaker and they go with Gonzalez, it’s a solid choice.  Gonzalez is my top CB prospect and he can be a CB1 in the NFL, that’s a valuable pickup.  Detroit is trying to take the next step towards the playoffs and getting better in the secondary is a huge need. 

7. Chicago Bears (TRADE from Las Vegas):  Jalen Carter     DT     Georgia

This would be the dream scenario for the Bears, assuming Carter’s legal troubles don’t keep him from playing in the NFL.  I suspect he will cut a deal with prosecutors and maybe face a short suspension from the NFL.  The accident was tragic and circumstances of it being from alleged street racing makes it really stupid and poor judgement.  Call me a cynic but I doubt a prosecutor in Georgia is going to go hard after a Georgia football player and look for jail time.  The NFL might suspend him a game or two but they won’t go beyond that.  The Bears take the leap after picking up multiple picks from multiple teams and they end up with the best player in the draft.  Carter may have made some really bad choices he will regret for the rest of his life but there are plenty of examples of him being a good guy.  He can play football and he would seriously improve the Bears defense up front.  He’s a game wrecker at DT, those guys are hard to come by. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Tyree Wilson     DE     Texas Tech

I considered getting really crazy with this pick and trading it to the Ravens in a package for Lamar Jackson but I’ll skip that move for now.  The Falcons move forward with Desmond Ridder for this season and they have to help their defense.  They can’t rush the passer and they need help up front.  Wilson is big and physical at 6’6 275 lbs. and he can be useful in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense.  They mostly run 3-4 so he would do well as an end there, he will hold up great in the run game and give them some pass rushing juice too.  Wilson is a big man who moves well and while he may not put up huge sack numbers, he can help a defense in many ways, and Atlanta needs help in all those ways. 

9. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE from Carolina):  Keion White     DL     Georgia Tech

The Seahawks are always good for picking the first-round pick that makes everyone go…Who?  Keion White is well-known in scouting circles but Georgia Tech hasn’t been a powerhouse lately.  White is a big, physical athlete who can play inside or outside and they need some reinforcements on the defensive front in Seattle.  LJ Collier and Poona Ford are free agents, Shelby Harris will be 32 and Al Woods will be 36 next year.  White gives them some options up front.  I’m not a huge fan of his but that would fit with the Seahawks as I usually disagree with their first-round picks. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans):  Lukas Van Ness     DE     Iowa

The Eagles went all-in this last year and made a run to the Super Bowl but now comes the bill.  They have a lot of free agents on defense and the defensive line will be hit especially hard.  It also happens to be a lot of aging vets so they will look to replace them, not re-sign them.  Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh, Linval Joseph, and Robert Quinn are all free agents. Brandon Graham will be 35 and Derek Barnett is coming off a knee injury.  Lukas Van Ness showed elite athleticism at the combine and he has versatility to line up outside or kick inside when needed.  The Eagles could use his youth and versatility as they transition to some new blood on the defensive front.  He can be a long-term partner for Josh Sweat, the only real young guy they have they can count on.  Van Ness needs to develop his pass rushing skills and learn what it means to have a pass rushing plan when attacking off the edge but he’s 6’5, 272 lbs., with a 7’ wingspan, and great agility, you can’t teach that stuff. 

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10): Paris Johnson Jr.     OT     Ohio St.

The Titans released Taylor Lewan, their long-time starting LT and they probably shouldn’t count on Dennis Daley to be the full-time starter.  They are a power running team and they need to rebuild the offensive line if they want to remain one.  There are three OTs expected to go early in round one; Paris Johnson Jr, Peter Skoronski, and Broderick Jones.  Skoronski is the most technically proficient of the three, Jones probably has the highest ceiling, but Johnson fits the Titans profile the best.  He’s large, physical and they drafted an OT from Ohio St. last year who ended up starting at RT for them, Nicholas Petit-Frere, I can see them going back to that well.  Johnson can step in right away and while he can be an immediate starter, he also has some room to get better considering he’s only started for one year at LT. 

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Myles Murphy     DE     Clemson

The Texans are almost a clean slate because they need help in many places.  With the QB position addressed with Bryce Young, DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio can look to address the defense with this pick they got from Cleveland in the Watson trade.  Myles Murphy is a physical specimen who has some work to do on his game but he has shone development throughout the year so he can still get better.  He is a very disruptive force off the edge but he has problems finishing plays.  He gets pressure on the QB but just doesn’t finish off with sacks.  This would send him to play for a good defensive coach in Ryans who could hopefully teach him to finish and get the absolute best out of his athletic talent. 

13. New York Jets (7-10):  Peter Skoronski     OT     Northwestern

The Jets didn’t get Derek Carr and this is too late to draft a QB but regardless of who starts at QB, they need help up front.  They can hope Mekhi Becton comes back from his injury but even if they do, they still need another OT.  Skoronski has less than desirable length for an offensive tackle but he’s efficient and effective and he has elite technique.  He can slot in on the left side so they can move Becton to RT.  Solidifying the offensive line with a new QB behind it can really unlock this offense.  Robert Saleh got the defense going last year, this year they need to fix the offense. 

14. New England Patriots (8-9):  Broderick Jones     OT     Georgia

The Patriots struck out on the last Georgia offensive tackle they drafted, Isaiah Wynn.  Wynn was undersized and could never stay healthy and moving him to RT this last year didn’t help, they will let him walk in free agency.  Jones is a different kind of tackle.  He was bigger than anticipated at the combine, coming in at 6’5 with long arms and a big wingspan.  He’s the most athletically gifted of the three top OTs in this draft and he can start from day one.  I would suggest the Patriots move Trent Brown back to RT and let Jones have the left side.  They need to improve the line in front of Mac Jones because he’s simply not that fleet of foot and this team wants to run the ball.  Jones has some technical issues he needs to fix but new offensive line coach Adrian Klemm was brought in for just that reason, make the line better.  It’s not a sexy pick but I really don’t want to see them draft a WR who will end up a bust.  Besides, Belichick just love having guys with the last name Jones on the team.    

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9):  Michael Mayer     TE     Notre Dame

The Packers need pass catchers whether Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love line up at QB.  Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both showed flashes of being good WRs last season but Allen Lazard is a free agent, so is Randall Cobb, so are TEs Robert Tonyan and Mercedes Lewis.  Lewis is almost as old as Rodgers and Tonyan can’t seem to stay healthy and neither can Cobb.  They shouldn’t re-sign any of those three and I wouldn’t pay much to keep Lazard.  Mayer isn’t the dynamic athlete some of the other TEs in this class have proven to be but he’s the best overall TE.  He’s a fantastic blocker, he’s a contested catch master in the passing game, and he’ll make any QB he plays with quite happy.  He’s a weapon in the passing game and the running game.  They need a refresh at TE, Mayer is the guy they should restart with. 

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1):  Brian Branch      DB      Alabama

Washington is a tough one here.  They need help in the secondary and while a CB would be preferable, I’m not sure any of the top ones are the best fit on their defense.  Most of the top CBs are man cover guys and the Commanders play more zone.  Branch played safety at Alabama but he also lined up in the slot.  He can be the nickel corner and the Commanders need that for sure.  Branch is scheme versatile and he actually worked out with the CBs at the combine so he has real coverage skills.  They just need defensive backfield help and Branch can be a chess piece to work with.  I also seriously considered giving this team an interior offensive lineman like C John Michael Schmitz or OG O’Cyrus Torrence, they need interior line help almost as much as they need secondary help.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8):  Joey Porter Jr.     CB     Penn St. 

This one might be a little too on the nose with Joey Porter Jr being drafted by his dad’s former team.  However, he’s actually the right pick and a good fit for this team.  Cameron Sutton is a free agent and Levi Wallace and Ahkello Witherspoon aren’t exactly a dynamic pair at outside CB.  Porter is a long, fluid athlete with legitimate CB1 potential and the Steelers haven’t had a CB1 since Joe Haden’s best days (those were a while ago).  They should take a serious look at the offensive line but Porter is just too great of a value pick here.  A legitimate, high-caliber starting CB is worth more than a starting interior offensive lineman (this would be a reach for the next OT), and you can still get good linemen later. 

18. Detroit Lions (9-8):  Dalton Kincaid     TE     Utah

The Lions traded TJ Hockenson last year because they didn’t want to have to pay him when he hit free agency.  They do need a TE who can be a bigger part of the passing offense than what they have right now.  Kincaid is the best pure pass catcher of the great TE class and he would pair well with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.  Williams brings the deep speed element and St. Brown is a master out of the slot and in the middle of the field.  Kincaid can dominate in the intermediate area and down the seam and be a dynamic weapon as they grow this offense. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9):  Nolan Smith     OLB     Georgia

The Bucs have a boatload of free agents on defense especially in the secondary.  They are really losing depth at safety but there really isn’t a guy to take here.  They could look at a d-lineman like Bryan Bresee but he’s not the best schematic fit.  One thing they were sorely lacking last year was an elite edge rusher.  Shaq Barrett missed half the year and he’s going to be 31 next season.  Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t proven to be a major pass rushing force.  Smith missed time last season at Georgia with injuries which is why he is flying a bit under the radar.  He broke out with a blazing 40 time at the combine and someone is going to take a chance on his incredible athleticism and pass rushing skill.  The Bucs defense would be more effective overall if they get more of a pass rush. 

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8):  John Michael Schmitz     OC     Minnesota

I have the Seahawks taking Keion White in the top 10 because they are the team most likely to march to the beat of their own drummer.  Here they take Schmitz because they need to address the interior of their offensive line, they really want to run the ball, and finally because fixing the offensive line to better protect Geno Smith is just twisting the knife in the Russell Wilson saga.  Their starting center Austin Blythe retired and they probably want to replace OG Gabe Jackson so they have some work to do in between their two OT starters they got in last year’s draft.  Schmitz is a rock inside.  He’s a big guy, he’s a natural center, he’s been playing for the Gophers so power running is in his blood.  This isn’t a sexy pick but he’s an excellent player, he’s the best center in the draft, and it might piss off Russell Wilson that the Seahawks just keep drafting offensive linemen now that he’s gone.  That’s enough reason for John Schneider and Pete Carroll. 

21. Miami Dolphins forfeited this pick because their owner thinks the rules don’t apply to him. I’m not sure how the NFL is going to count this, are they moving everything from here on up or not?  We’ll see.  I’m just counting it as 21 and moving on to 22. 

22. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7):  Jalin Hyatt     WR     Tennessee

I’m not coming off of this pairing unless the Chargers make a trade for a guy like Brandin Cooks before the draft.  They should probably take Dawand Jones at RT to finally fix that spot and I wouldn’t blame them, but I’m sticking with Hyatt.  Let’s be clear, Hyatt is not the best WR in this class even though I have him going first at the position.  This WR class is rough.  We have been spoiled for the last several years, this class likely does not contain a true #1 WR. There are some solid #2 guys, some really good slot guys, some interesting gadget guys, but no #1 guys.  The Chargers have the big X WR in Mike Williams, they have the true possession monster with Keenan Allen, they do not have a deep ball, take-the-top-off, legitimate speed threat (spare me any mention of Jalen Guyton).  Hyatt is the perfect complement to those guys, he gives them someone who can make use of Justin Herbert’s elite arm strength, and the fact he isn’t a well-versed route runner is moot, just send him deep, he can learn the rest as he goes.              

23. Baltimore Ravens (10-7):  Devon Witherspoon     CB     Illinois

The Ravens couldn’t reach an agreement with Lamar Jackson on a contract so they used the non-exclusive franchise tag on him.  That means he can negotiate with other teams, get an offer from someone else, and the Ravens can match it.  That’s what’s going to happen.  The Ravens believe Jackson can’t get a fully guaranteed contract from someone else, he thinks he can, one of them will be right, either way, the Ravens aren’t letting him go for two 1^st round picks just to start over at QB.  They should probably get him a WR but they won’t.  They need a CB to replace the aging and far less effective Marcus Peters.  Witherspoon is tough, physical, and really talented, he’ll fit right in. 

24. Minnesota Vikings (13-4):  Cam Smith     CB     South Carolina

Patrick Peterson, Chandron Sullivan, Duke Shelley, and Kris Boyd are all free agent CBs for the Vikings.  That’s going to leave Cam Dantzler awful lonely in the meeting rooms.  Peterson still played at a high-level last year but he’s seriously aging and his cliff could come at any time.  Cam Smith has good size, top man cover skills, and he would start immediately in Minnesota.  They could also look to fix their center spot, but there isn’t one worth taking here and they can get one later.  The defensive line needs some help at some point.  LB Eric Kendricks was released in a cap move too so they could use a MLB.  That feels like a need to address later too.  Smith would be excellent value and he’s a very good player. 

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8):  Dawand Jones     OT     Ohio St.

The Jaguars franchise tagged TE Evan Engram instead of OT Jawaan Taylor.  If Taylor gets a big offer and they don’t match it, they are going to have a hole at RT.  Taylor played quite well in his first year under Doug Pederson so he could get paid.  Jones is a massive human at over 6’8, 370 lbs. with a wingspan over 7 feet long and some of the longest arms in football.  He isn’t the most fluid mover but when you’re that big, you don’t have to move that much to block people.  The Jaguars roster is surprisingly in good shape so they can just take the best player if they happen to re-sign Taylor. 

26. New York Giants (9-7-1):  Jordan Addison     WR     USC

The Giants re-signed Daniel Jones to a 4-year deal and that allowed them to franchise tag Saquon Barkley, that’s two major pieces of the offense.  Now if they just had a WR who was worth a damn.  This draft class isn’t great but these guys are better than what the Giants threw out there last year for Jones.  Addison isn’t the fastest guy, he’s not the biggest guy, but he’s an effective player.  He plays faster than his run time at the combine.  He’s a natural receiver with inherent pass catching skills.  He runs good routes and he would give Jones someone he can count on when he needs a playmaker.  I’m not sure Addison ever becomes a #1 (he might, but probably not) but he will make a very good #2 WR, he’ll just have to impersonate a WR1 for the time being. 

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Kelee Ringo     CB     Georgia

Ringo is a fantastic athlete with great size and he looks the part of a top-notch CB.  He doesn’t always play like one.  He likes to gamble to try to make plays but that’s exactly what Trevon Diggs does and the Cowboys have made that work.  They need help in the secondary and while Ringo’s undisciplined play could be a problem, he’s still an upgrade talentwise.  There is also the added bonus that a lot of people think Ringo shouldn’t even be a CB and should be moved to safety where he would be in a position to freelance a bit more and make plays in front of him.  The Cowboys need safety help as much as they need CB help.  I did struggle a bit with this pick.  They could do the smart thing and grab a DT in Bryan Bresee who wouldn’t be all that flashy but would help solve their issues inside on the d-line.  They could also grab one of the really good TEs since they may lose Dalton Schulz in free agency after tagging Tony Pollard instead of Schulz again.  There is more TE depth than CB depth so they can address that later. 

28. Buffalo Bills (13-3):  Bijan Robinson     RB     Texas

Robinson shouldn’t be here, he really should be a top 10 pick but that just isn’t going to happen for a RB, even one as good as he is.  If he falls this far, every team in the league should kick themselves if the Bills get him.  Robinson is an awesome RB, he’s a lock for offensive rookie of the year if he goes to a team with any ability in the run game.  He’s a twitchy athlete with speed, power, balance, and agility.  He’s a fantastic pass catcher, he would probably rank in the top five WRs in this draft if he were simply a WR (that might be an overstatement but not by much).  Devin Singletary is a free agent and even if he returns, the Bills should draft Robinson if he falls this far, he’s way too good to still be on the board.  I wouldn’t be upset if the Patriots take him 14^th and they already have Rhamondre Stevenson.  Robinson will be a top 10 RB next season if he goes to any team that gives him the majority of the carries.  If he goes to Buffalo’s offense, he could be top 5.   

29. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4):  Jahmyr Gibbs     RB     Alabama

The Bengals are looking at having to find a way to pay Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins over the next two seasons, that’s not going to be cheap.  That means TE Hayden Hurst is probably gone this year and Joe Mixon isn’t getting a big contract extension either.  Mixon is a fantastic player but RB is a more easily replaceable position especially if Gibbs falls this far.  Gibbs is a special talent who is a cross between Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Charles.  He would be electric in this offense.  He’s fast, he has great pass catching ability, and he’ll be a much cheaper RB being on a rookie contract.  It’s possible they could also grab an OT here to save some money and replace Jonah Williams at LT.

30. New Orleans (from three different teams):  Quentin Johnston     WR     TCU

The Saints got this pick from Denver as compensation for Sean Payton taking the head coaching job.  The Broncos got it from Miami in the Bradley Chubb trade earlier this year after the Miami originally got in from San Francisco in the Trey Lance deal (got all that?).  So, the Saints get a first round pick after trading their original one last year to move up to get Chris Olave, and here they take another WR?  Classic Saints move.  Trust me, they should take Bryan Bresee or some secondary help, however, Michael Thomas should be out the door and Jarvis Landry is a free agent.  That leaves Olave with some not-so-great partners for new QB Derek Carr.  Somehow, they signed Carr, the Saints make up the salary cap as they go.  If you’re spending $35 million a year on Carr, you should give him more than Olave and Alvin Kamara. Quentin Johnston is a big WR with great outside speed.  He would be a great complement to Olave, they just have to teach him to catch, he’s not great at catching the football, it’s a work in progress.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3):  Bryan Bresee     DT     Clemson

If the Eagles keep the #10 pick and use it, I could see Howie Roseman trading this one to someone who wants to get back into the end of round one.  Roseman would gladly push the pick a year on the off chance it ends up higher than this next season.  If he does make the pick, offensive or defensive line is a good bet.  Roseman likes to address the lines early and after taking Lukas Van Ness with his first pick he can look inside to Bresee.  Bresee shouldn’t be around this late so this would be enormous value for the Eagles.  Two defensive linemen would seem strange until you look at all the free agents they have on the d-line and the fact that Roseman loves himself some linemen in round one.  Bresee is also better than any CB or safety they can get here.  

32. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3):  Darnell Wright     OT     Tennessee

There’s always an offensive tackle who gets pushed up a little bit because the position is such a need.  The Chiefs didn’t franchise Orlando Brown Jr. and while they hope to re-sign him anyway, they will likely not be able to hold onto him and RT Andrew Wylie.  Wright feels like a RT only guy but if necessary, they could try him at LT if Brown departs.  Either way, they need an OT and Wright is the best one available.  He had a really good season at Tennessee and followed it up with a good workout at the combine.  It might make teams reconsider him on the left side even though he was far better at RT this last year compared to his previous season at LT.  Protecting Patrick Mahomes will be always be priority one and this is an investment in doing that for the next several years.     

Well, here’s my first 2023 NFL Mock Draft and let me just say, the more I dig into this draft class, the more I hate it.  I know, hate is a strong word, but it’s appropriate here.  I like Bryce Young and CJ Stroud more than the QBs in last year’s class but that’s a pretty low bar.  Will Levis and Anthony Richardson seem to be the next two guy on everyone’s list, okay, Levis is better than the rest of them but Richardson? Yikes.  And I wouldn’t take Levis until late round one and then only if I’m desperate.  Richardson is getting at least one coach and one GM fired if he goes in round one.  Can we just skip to the 2024 draft class?  Those QBs could be fun.   

Bijan Robinson should probably be the third pick after Jalen Carter and Will Anderson.  Those are the three truly elite players in the draft but that’s not how these things work.  Teams don’t value RBs that highly but they should consider the talent level they are picking from.  Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs is probably a top 15 talent too.  The TE group is great, which is awesome because the NFL needs some upgrades at that position.  There are about seven guys who I would take in the first three rounds and depending on which teams get them, they could all start; Michael Mayer, Darnell Washington, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta, and Luke Schoonmaker.

There are a ton of defensive linemen that will likely end up in round one and early round two.  Jalen Carter and Will Anderson are elite players, I’m not convinced about any of the rest of them (seriously, Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson, and Bryan Bresee, I’m not convinced).  Even as much as I’ve watched Lukas Van Ness, everything I think he’ll be is still a major projection because he just hasn’t played that much.  There are some CBs I like, there are almost no safeties I like, and my favorite LB is Jack Campbell and it’s not just because he’s from Iowa, he’s literally the only sure thing there and MLB just don’t get people excited.  This mock draft was difficult because I had a hard time liking 31 players enough to put them in it, thank you Miami for saving me from having to come up with a 32^nd player (scroll down for the explanation).  Hopefully the Senior Bowl and some workouts will help me come around on some of these guys, but I’m not getting my hopes up.  Here we go.     

1. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE from Chicago):  Bryce Young     QB     Alabama

I generally don’t like to project trades and doing it this early is simply foolish but there is almost no chance the Bears hold on to this pick.  The gift the Texans handed the Bears with their ridiculous final week win will pay off when the Bears take advantage of the Colts’ desperation to finally solve their QB issues.  I’m not convinced Young is going to be a great NFL QB, his size and frame make him a serious outlier in the NFL.  He’s under 6’0 tall and will play at less than 200 lbs., that simply doesn’t happen at QB in the league.  He’s a great athlete, a true team leader, and effective at leading an offense, but this is big boy football and his physical limitations could hinder him.  This pick is a major projection, not just because I’m not sold on Young, but also because the Colts don’t even have a coach yet and I’m not sure GM Chris Ballard would take a QB this small.  He may trade up for a QB and it could be CJ Stroud or Will Levis (I’m not sold on them either). 

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1):  CJ Stroud     QB      Ohio St.

Lovie Smith’s exiting gift was to hand the Bears the #1 pick and everyone is making a huge deal out of them picking second instead.  It may save them from themselves.  Like I said, I’m not convinced Young is a future superstar QB and while I’m not convinced Stroud is either, he has a shot to be as good as Young.  I like Stroud, he’s as accurate as you could ever want, he can throw every pass you need, and he showed in the game against Georgia that he is a capable runner.  He wants to be a pocket passer and in the NFL that’s where you have to win.  Mobility and the ability to escape the pocket are great skills that Stroud does possess but he’s ability to hit every throw is far more valuable.  The Texans rebuild is going to take some time and they need to give any new QB more help on offense (and their defense isn’t good either) which is why I would advise against trading up.  The cost of moving up to get Young instead of taking Stroud is simply not worth it. 

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Jalen Carter     DL     Georgia

The Cardinals are in a weird spot next season.  Kyler Murray is likely to miss a major chunk of the season after tearing his ACL late last year.  They will have a new head coach, they already hired new GM, JJ Watt is retiring and the roster is aging.  It’s time for a hard reset while they wait on Murray to return and they figure out if they can even move forward with him.  Given all that, just take the best player in the draft, that’s Jalen Carter.  The great news is Carter is a versatile defensive lineman who will fit into any scheme a new coach wants to run and if a year from now you change coaches again (a short-term placeholder coach is a definite possibility here), no problem, Carter will fit into the next new system.  Carter is a game wreaker, wherever he lines up.  He’s the best player in this draft and he’s a great piece to build your new defense around.  He may even be so good up front that he can make your two previous inexplicable first-round LB picks better than they have been, win-win.  To new GM Monti Ossenfort, don’t overthink it, take Carter. 

4. Chicago Bears (from Indianapolis):  Will Anderson     Edge     Alabama

Bears fans, slow your roll.  I’m not sure you’re going to get the king’s ransom you think your going to get for the #1 pick.  There simply isn’t a generational QB prospect someone should really sell out for and the San Francisco trade up for Trey Lance two years ago is looking pretty rough at the moment, that’s not helping your cause.  Also, while Indy may be desperate, they may also be fine waiting for a QB to fall to four, but whatever they offer, take it.  Carolina may be more desperate and offer more picks but take Indy’s pick because it means you will still be in play for either Carter or Anderson.  This draft has two elite players; Jalen Carter and Will Anderson.  Arizona gets one and the Bears snag the other.  Anderson has elite pass rusher written all over him and that’s a major need for the Bears defense.  Anderson changes the game and given his versatility he can line up as a DE or an OLB and give Matt Eberflus a nice chess piece. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver):  Myles Murphy     DE     Clemson

The Seahawks get this pick thanks to the Russell Wilson trade and while some might think they could use this on a QB, that would be unwise.  They will re-sign Geno Smith and try to improve their defense, which was not good most of the year.  The team has tried for years to find a top pass rusher, drafting Bruce Irvin many years ago and they letting him go and bringing him back.  They drafted LJ Collier in round one a few years ago, that’s been a bust.  Darrell Taylor, a second-rounder a few years back had a solid year but he’s just solid not spectacular.  Murphy has all the tools you want.  He has size, speed, athleticism, good hands and he’s versatile up front.  Murphy didn’t have elite sack numbers but he had plenty of pressures.  The one thing he doesn’t do as well is finish his pass rushes off with the QB sack.  He’ll get better as he gets more reps and he should earn plenty of reps in Seattle. 

6. Detroit Lions (from the LA Rams):  Christian Gonzalez     CB     Oregon

Gonzalez isn’t the highest profile CB in this draft, Joey Porter Jr. and Kelee Ringo both have higher profiles.  However, Gonzalez is the best prospect at the position.  He has elite length and athleticism, he’s scheme versatile, and he has years of playing experience.  Gonzalez started for two years at Colorado before transferring to Oregon where he was a star.  He also got better every year and turned into a playmaker at Oregon with four picks.  The Lions have Jeff Okudah who had an up and down year but finally showed some progress in his development, but he’s got one year on his contract left.  Amari Oruwariye had a tough year and is a free agent.  They like Jerry Jacobs but he lacks experience and probably isn’t a #1 CB.  Gonzalez would seriously upgrade their secondary and that’s where they really need help to improve the defense. 

7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11):  Paris Johnson Jr.     OT     Ohio St.

The Raiders will be moving on from Derek Carr but don’t expect this pick to be a QB.  The team is built to win now and they will do everything possible to secure a veteran upgrade, whether they succeed or not is to be determined.  They will go after Tom Brady in free agency or try to trade for Aaron Rodgers but if neither of those come to pass, they may look at a guy like Jimmy G.  Josh McDaniels may be crazy enough to give Jarrett Stidham a shot for the season if he doesn’t find a veteran he really likes.  I don’t see him wanting Will Levis or Anthony Richardson at this point.  Regardless of who lines up at QB, they have to fix the offensive line, especially the right side.  Johnson played LT at Ohio St. last year but he has also played RG so he could transition to RT and start immediately.  Johnson has better prototypical size than Peter Skoronski or Broderick Jones which may be the deciding factor here making him the choice over those two.  Johnson will need some time to settle in at RT but he’s a massive upgrade over the guys the Raiders played there last year.  He also shouldn’t be the last offensive lineman they draft. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Tyree Wilson     DE     Texas Tech

The Falcons rebuild is a long-term project and while a QB is possible I’m not sure Will Levis moves the needle enough.  Desmond Ridder had a solid end to the season when he took over as a starter and giving him the season to see if he’s the future isn’t a bad idea.  If he’s terrible the team will be perfectly positioned to draft a QB in 2024 when the draft class looks considerably better at QB.  The Falcons’ defense is awful and the future is still in flux with Dean Pees retiring from the defensive coordinator position.  Wilson is a long defensive end who can play in an even or odd front (although I think he would be better in an odd front).  If the Falcons stick to a 3-4 base defense (highly likely) Wilson is a great fit.  He can get home off the edge but he’s actually more effective on his inside rush.  He would be a nice foundational piece to a rebuilt Falcons defense and eventually he would make any OLB a more effective edge rusher.  The Falcons can afford to wait at QB, this isn’t the draft to reach for a savior at QB. 

9. Carolina Panthers (7-10):  Will Levis     QB     Kentucky

If there is one team desperate enough to chase a QB, it’s the Carolina Panthers and owner David Tepper.  I actually don’t think this is his only move at QB.  He’s going to make a move for a veteran like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or if he’s completely desperate, Derek Carr.  That won’t preclude him from drafting Levis if he’s around.  Levis shouldn’t be a day-one starter, he should learn from a good veteran.  Levis has talent but he needs plenty of work.  He has all the physical tools you can want but he makes decisions that will boggle the mind at times.  He also has some real inconsistencies delivering the ball.  He has elite arm strength but unfortunately, he sometimes trusts it too much and thinks he can fire a ball through multiple defenders which is why his turnover rate is excessive.  He has some lower body mechanics to work on and while his throwing motion is compact the set up takes too long, NFL defensive backs will eat him up.  He needs a veteran mentor and a good QB coach to fix some issues.  The Panthers need a long-term solution at QB, he may be the next Josh Allen, of course he could be the next Jake Locker. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans):  Joey Porter Jr.     CB     Penn St.

The Eagles have aging CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry and Bradberry is a free agent this off season.  They have a need in the secondary to not only replace these guys now or eventually but also to get some depth.  Porter is the son of former Steeler Joey Porter Sr. and he’s a big, physical press-man corner, that should work out just fine in Philly.  They need help in the back end more than they need help up front although I wouldn’t be surprised if Howie Roseman wants Bryan Bresee at DT to play next to Jordan Davis, the rest of the DT rotation is aging too.  Roseman likes his big guys but I think Porter might be too good and too valuable to pass on here.  He steps in as an immediate starter and eventually as the #1 CB, probably sooner rather than later.  Porter has elite size and length and should hold his own against the best WRs in the NFL. 

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10):  Broderick Jones     OT     Georgia

 The Titans are in a weird spot.  They don’t have a lot of years of Derrick Henry’s dominance left, Ryan Tannehill needs to be replaced, they need to get younger at some key spots (LT especially) and they aren’t particularly talented on offense.  Oh, and Malik Willis doesn’t look like any kind of answer at QB, he was pretty bad last year.  Jones is a talented LT starting for the back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs.  Taylor Lewan will be 32 this year, he missed a lot of time with an injury, and he’s an obvious salary cap casualty this off season.  Jones can step in, start immediately, and give them some consistency they have been missing with Lewan’s injury issues and age.  The Titans are a dark horse team for signing Tom Brady (he was teammates with Vrabel) but they probably are more like a Jimmy G team or maybe a Baker Mayfield spot.  Either way, upgrades on the offensive line, WR or on defense are all on the table. 

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Bryan Bresee      DT     Clemson

The Texans still don’t have a coach so it’s still difficult to see where they might be going but this is a total rebuild and after taking a QB at #2 in this draft, they should just draft talent, they need it everywhere.  Best player available should be the mantra for this franchise.  Even the few places they have talent (LT, WR, RB) have issues.  Laremy Tunsil has a year left on his deal, Brandin Cooks wants out and Dameon Pierce is just one man.  Bresee has loads of talent, he has size and skill at DT and he’s got some scheme versatility, not a bad place to start the defensive rebuild. 

13. New York Jets (7-10):  Peter Skoronski     LT     Northwestern

The Jets are looking to be good next year.  They will move on from Zach Wilson at QB and try to find a veteran.  Aaron Rodgers would be the dream scenario while Derek Carr is the more realistic one.  Either way, they need help up front.  Mekhi Becton is supposed to return from his knee injury at LT but he wasn’t a sure thing before the injury.  Skoronski is the anti-Becton, meaning he doesn’t have elite size, or length for the position but he’s as reliable as they come.  Some will underrate him because he doesn’t have the arm length teams covet at OT but he’s the most technically proficient guy you’ll find.  If Becton does get back and can play that’s fine, this team needs help at RT and on the interior of the line too, Skoronski can play anywhere on the line.  He’s an immediate starter and this team is looking to compete next season. 

14. New England Patriots (8-9):  Quentin Johnson     WR     TCU

This pick scares me as a Patriots fan.  Bill Belichick has the worst track record when it comes to drafting WRs high in the draft.  However, with the team needing to find out if Mac Jones is the future at QB, they need talent at WR.  Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor are free agents and DeVante Parker should be a cap casualty this off season.  Kendrick Bourne has been in Belichick’s doghouse and Tyquan Thornton hasn’t proven a thing.  Johnson is a big, lengthy WR at 6’4 with great speed and can get separation.  He’s everything Parker was supposed to be but never has been.  They still should re-sign Meyers and I would actually be fine if they traded for DeAndre Hopkins and skipped drafting a WR, at least we know Hopkins can be good.  It’s also possible Belichick drafts Brian Branch, the safety from Alabama.  Seriously, Devin McCourty is probably retiring and Belichick loves Alabama defenders.  I wouldn’t complain if he takes Branch either.   

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9):  Michael Mayer     TE     Notre Dame

Besides the obvious questions about what happens with Aaron Rodgers the passing offense will be in a state of flux anyway.  Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, and Mercedes Lewis are all free agents meaning they don’t really have a TE and they just have some second-year WRs.  Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could certainly take a step forward next season but this team needs some more weapons.  Mayer isn’t some ridiculous athlete like a Jimmy Graham and while he has sometimes been called “baby-Gronk” that’s simply not a real comparison.  Mayer is a really impressive overall TE.  He is a chain mover as a pass catcher.  He isn’t going to kill you going deep down the seam but if it’s 3^rd down, he’s the guy you go to.  Mayer has better than average skills at pretty much everything you want in a TE.  He’s reliable, tough, willing to do everything you ask, and he’s going to be effective in every facet of the game.  Whether it’s Rodgers, Jordan Love, or someone else at QB for the Packers, Mayer makes the offense better. 

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1):  Kelee Ringo     CB     Georgia

It is easy to fall in love with Ringo’s playmaking, his physical skills, and his competitiveness.  He’s an elite athlete who has the size to hold up against anyone and the speed to run with anyone.  Ringo makes plays in coverage and knows what to do once he creates a turnover.  The problem is he relies too heavily on his size and athleticism and can get beat because of his lack of technique at times.  He gambles and freelances too much looking for the big play and can be out of position.  That could be something that can be coached out of him but it hasn’t been so far.  Ringo could be one of the best CBs in the NFL in three years, or he could be trying out for the XFL because he drove his coaches crazy.  It’s also possible he ends up moving inside to safety where he can just roam around making plays and not getting beat by WRs who know how to set him up.  Ringo has the widest range of outcomes for the CB class, maybe for this entire draft class regardless of position.  Washington can bet on his upside to help their defense. 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8):  Brian Branch      DB      Alabama

The Steelers need help on the offensive line but there isn’t great value here and they need help on the defensive line but the players here aren’t the best fits for their 3-4 defense.  The Steelers don’t tend to reach to fill a need.  They also need CB help and Cam Smith from South Carolina would be a solid choice but I think they go a different direction.  Branch is a safety/nickel defender who trained under Nick Saban at Alabama at their Star position and he excelled.  That’s the same way Minkah Fitzpatrick learned to be as great and as versatile as he is.  In today’s pass happy NFL, having two safeties that you can move around in coverage, bring up into the box, have them cover deep, or can line up in the slot or covering a TE, the better.  Terrell Edmunds was supposed to be that guy but he’s a free agent and Branch would be an upgrade anyway.  Cam Sutton is also a free agent and he’s always been great in the slot, that’s another place Branch helps.    

18. Detroit Lions (9-8):  Darnell Washington     TE     Georgia

This is a sneaky spot for RB Bijan Robinson if the Lions aren’t able to re-sign Jamaal Williams.  I think they will re-sign Williams but if someone comes in with a major offer they don’t want to match, Robinson would be a nice addition.  Instead, the Lions replace TJ Hockenson, who they traded to Minnesota, with a guy who looks like he was designed in a video game.  Washington is somewhere around 6’7 270 lbs., runs like a deer, and looks like he was chiseled out of granite.  He would have been a far more effective player at Georgia except Georgia had the country’s best TE Brock Bowers to rely on.  Washington is basically Gronk when it comes to blocking, he’s a third OT in the run game.  He also presents serious matchup problems in the red zone and on third down.  He would make the Lions offense even better. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9):  Bijan Robinson     RB     Texas

Robinson is a legitimately a top five talent in this draft and if he goes in the top ten, I won’t be surprised.  It’s hard to find a place where someone will value him that highly and it’s even harder with the free agent RB class having Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard and more.  Once that sorts out, we will have a better idea who wants Robinson.  I think the Buccaneers will let Leonard Fournette go and with Tom Brady likely somewhere else, Robinson comes in as a major new piece to the offense. He’s an elite talent who is not only impressive carrying the ball but he’s really good in the pass game.  He runs really good routes, has soft hands, and knows how to get open.  He will make life easier on the Bucs new QB (whoever that is) and he can carry the load early. 

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8):  Anthony Richardson     QB     Florida

I can completely see this pick happening and I would absolutely disagree with it.  I don’t like Richardson as a first round pick.  He’s basically a taller version of Malik Willis from last year, an impressive athlete with a great arm who doesn’t look like a QB, and Willis went in round three.  However, this would make some sense in Seattle.  I fully expect them to re-sign Geno Smith to a three- or four-year deal.  Smith is going to be 33 next year so he’s not the long-term answer.  Richardson needs time to develop as a QB and Smith would allow him to do that and be a great mentor for him.  Drew Lock is also a free agent and I don’t see him re-signing and the team doesn’t have another QB.  It would be a solid environment with an established coaching staff and veteran QB, it might be ideal for Richardson.  I’m not totally convinced he’ll ever be an NFL starting QB, if you asked me to bet if he would be a starting QB or a starting TE in four years, I wouldn’t be able to pick.  He is an elite athlete, he has a canon for an arm, I’m not sure he understands how to play QB.  Some games he looks like the second coming of Cam Newton and other games he looks like it’s the first time he’s ever seen a football.  

21. Miami Dolphins (pick FORFEITED because the Dolphins owner tried to sign Tom Brady when he wasn’t actually a free agent and you’re not allowed to do that.  Stephen Ross is also currently suspended for this incident)

22. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7):  Jalin Hyatt     WR     Tennessee

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to WRs in this draft.  They are all very different types of guys.  Hyatt is the guy the Chargers offense needs.  They have zero deep speed threats.  Mike Williams is a big, contested catch X receiver while Keenan Allen is the awesome big-bodied possession guy who likes to play out of the slot.  Hyatt is the speedy outside WR who runs go routes and tracks the ball like he’s Willie Mays.  Hyatt is very slight, he’s only 6’0 and maybe 185 lbs.  That doesn’t matter, the Chargers have size at WR, they need speed.  Hyatt will take the top off the defense and give Justin Herbert a guy he can uncork his massive arm for downfield.  He will make more room underneath for Allen, Williams and Austin Ekeler to do damage.  He will also move safeties back to make the running game more effective, Hyatt can be a force multiplier for the Chargers offense.  It’s almost criminal that a team with Justin Herbert at QB doesn’t have an elite deep threat, hello Mr. Hyatt.   

23. Baltimore Ravens (10-7):  Cam Smith     CB     South Carolina

Everyone is going to give the Ravens a WR here because they need WR help, however, they have needed WR help for years and they generally don’t focus on it.  Normally, I would disagree with that strategy but I’m not a huge fan of this WR group and with Johnson and Hyatt off the board, I really don’t like it.  Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are smaller, slot type receivers and that isn’t what the Ravens need.  They do have two over 30 CBs who will be free agents (Marcus Peters, Kyle Fuller) along with Daryl Worley, they need help opposite Marlon Humphrey.  Smith isn’t the biggest CB but he isn’t undersized, he plays aggressively and that can get him into trouble.  However, the Ravens have great safeties to help him out and Smith wouldn’t have to match up with #1 WR because the Ravens have Humphrey.  Even if they re-sign Worley, Smith makes a better #2 and that would leave Worley as a backup.  The Ravens won’t reach for a WR, there really isn’t an interior offensive lineman to like here and Smith is better than the 3-4 defensive linemen available. 

24. Minnesota Vikings (13-4):  Drew Sanders     LB     Arkansas

Drew Sanders was an edge rusher at Alabama who transferred to Arkansas and became an off-the-ball LB last year.  He doesn’t have a ton of reps at either position but he still makes plays everywhere.  He may be somewhere between Chad Greenway and Anthony Barr as a player and I’m not sure exactly where he ends up.  What I do know is the Vikings defense needs as much help as they can get and Sanders is an elite playmaker who makes them better.  Eric Kendricks, Jordan Hicks, and Za’Darius Smith are all over 30 and the LB corps needs some younger legs.  Also, the secondary (especially CB) needs some help with Patrick Peterson, Chadron Sullivan, Duke Shelley, and Kris Boyd all set for free agency and Andrew Booth Jr. coming off knee surgery.  Devon Witherspoon from Illinois is a possibility here but I like Sanders better. 

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8):  Anton Harrison     OT     Oklahoma

The Jaguars may lose Marvin Jones Jr at WR this year in free agency but they traded for Calvin Ridley at the trade deadline and as long as he gets reinstated from his gambling suspension, that’s an upgrade.  They could lose their top three TEs in free agency but I have a feeling they will re-sign Evan Engram considering his connection to Trevor Lawrence this year.  Also, this is a deep TE class so they can get one later.  At OT Cam Robinson got hurt and Walker Little stepped in at LT, RT Jawaan Taylor is a free agent and I think they can upgrade.  Harrison is a bit raw but he’s a great athlete and I think Doug Pederson and that coaching staff can get the best out of him.  This team just needs to keep taking steps forward and they are going to be really good. 

26. New York Giants (9-7-1):  Jordan Addison     WR     USC

My assumption is that the Giants will re-sign Daniel Jones at QB and Saquon Barkley at RB and then turn their attention to the giant gaping hole at WR. Kenny Golladay is a sunk cost; they should cut him.  Sterling Shepard is always injured.  Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins (their top three guys right now) are all free agents because no one is giving those guys multi-year contracts.  It’s a wasteland and they need help.  Jordan Addison probably shouldn’t be a #1 WR but if he was on the Giants right now, he already would be.  They have to get Daniel Jones some pass catchers and Addison is one guy who has a chance to maybe turn into a top WR on a team. 

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Jahmyr Gibbs     RB     Alabama

It may seem like the Cowboys have bigger issues than RB and that’s probably true.  I would suggest drafting CB Devon Witherspoon or WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or an offensive lineman.  However, if they lose Tony Pollard in free agency, a possibility considering the contract he could get and the money they already have tied up in Ezekiel Elliott, Gibbs would make a lot of sense.  Gibbs is an elite athlete with great speed who was the one other player on Alabama’s offense besides Bryce Young who was always consistent.  Gibbs has a lot of value as a pass catcher and while he isn’t great in blitz pickup, that’s fine, Elliott excels at that.  This would be seen as a luxury pick but if they lose Pollard in free agency, it won’t be.  Pollard was the game breaker this year for them and Gibbs could be that going forward.

28. Buffalo Bills (13-3):  Jaxon Smith-Njigba     WR     Ohio St.

This pick would be borderline unfair, adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the Bills offense is ridiculous.  The Bills are definitely at a place where they can go best player available and it just s happens Smith-Njigba would fit nicely on this team.  Isaiah McKenzie didn’t prove to be the playmaker they were hoping in the slot which is why they traded for Nyheim Hines (who’s a free agent after the season) and brought back Cole Beasley (he should probably retire for good).  Smith-Njigba would be a master in the slot and become one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets.  Gabe Davis also didn’t prove to be as good as they hoped, he lacks consistency.  The Bills could address the interior offensive line or the TE spot but Smith-Njigba would be just too good to pass up here and they can address those positions later in the draft. 

29. Denver Broncos (from San Francisco):  Andrew Vorhees     OL     USC

The Broncos had a rough year and a lot of that had to do with a bad QB and maybe worse coaching.  We don’t know who the new coach will be yet but it’s a good bet they will look to improve the offense.  They can start up front.  Garrett Bolles broke his leg and missed most of the year and they had several other injuries.  Dalton Risner is a free agent they may not bring back.  Vorhees has position versatility as a G/T prospect and it shouldn’t matter who the new coach is, Vorhees can fit any scheme.  He gives them a potential new OG if they want or he could play RT, another position that could use an upgrade. They can’t afford to replace Russell Wilson for a few years so they should really work on protecting him. 

30. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4):  Devon Witherspoon     CB     Illinois

The Bengals are a pretty good team but they do have a couple of places they need help.  They could need a safety with both Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III are free agents but unless Brian Branch makes it here, they should wait.  Hayden Hurst is a free agent too so TE is a definite possibility.  However, the best idea would be to grab Witherspoon, he fills a major need at CB and happens to be arguably the best player left on the board.  Eli Apple is a free agent and really isn’t that good anyway and they need an upgrade no matter what.  Witherspoon isn’t the biggest or fastest CB but he’s physical and aggressive and won’t back down from anyone.  There could be some major turnover in the Bengals secondary and that wouldn’t be the worst thing if they add talent like Witherspoon.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3):  Lukas Van Ness     DL     Iowa

The Eagles defensive front could take some serious losses up front this off season.  Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, and Javon Hargrave all have voidable contracts. Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph were in-season depth signings, not long-term investments and Brandon Graham is going to be 35.  They need some youth to join Jordan Davis, Milton Williams and Josh Sweat as the future up front.  Van Ness didn’t start a game at Iowa but he has been one of the better pass rushers for the Hawkeyes even with limited snaps.  He’s a freakish athlete who’s a very well put together at 6’5 270 lbs., his nickname is Hercules for a reason.  Philadelphia likes to rotate linemen and Van Ness can play everywhere alone the front.  He played more DT at Iowa than DE and yet he should excel rushing off the edge.  Van Ness isn’t a household name just yet but Eagles fans will love the way he plays and what he can do for this defense.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3):  Dawand Jones     OT     Ohio St.

The Chiefs’ starting OTs Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie are both free agents at the end of the season and it’s possible neither is back.  Brown wants to play LT and get paid like the best LT in the game, he’s not close to the best in the game.  However, they may have to pay him because they don’t have many alternatives.  If the do, they may not have the money or desire to bring Wylie back.  Jones is a ridiculous looking player at almost 6’8 360 lbs. with the longest wingspan you’ll ever see.  If the Chiefs bring back Brown and draft Jones it would be a freakish pair of bookend tackles.  Jones is often compared to Brown because of his sheer size and he has some of the same issues, lateral movement and fluidity being two of them.  Jones should make for a very good RT for someone and that’s something the Chiefs have been trying to lock down since Mitchell Schwartz retired.  If they decide to re-sign Wylie and let Brown walk, they would probably go for a different OT here.  Jones isn’t a LT so they may look at guys like Mike Bergeron or Jaelyn Duncan instead.  Always a good idea to protect Patrick Mahomes. 

I’m sitting here looking across the room and I see my autographed Kirk Ferentz football, it says “Go Hawks” and all I can think is, time to “Go Kirk”. Kirk Ferentz has a legacy at Iowa that is well earned but his willful blindness to the problems with his program could undermine that legacy. You would think a man who admitted to his blind spot when it came to the racial issues with his former strength coach would recognize the problems on the field with his offense, but he just can’t admit to another blind spot. Kirk Ferentz has never been one to overreact to a problem, I’m fine with not overreacting, but I’m not fine with not reacting to this abysmal offense. He is wasting an epically great defense and a fantastic special teams group that deserve better.

The issues on offense are numerous and Kirk refuses to even try to address any of them, it’s literally easier to list the things that are good on offense. There are three, TE Sam LaPorta, TE Luke Lachey, and RB Kaleb Johnson, that’s it, that’s where the list of good things ends. The offensive line is young, it is talented, and it has been terrible. Kirk mentioned in his post game press conference after the Illinois loss that he though they made progress last week against Michigan. They did, but most of that “progress” was when they were running the stretch zone to Kaleb Johnson and then they didn’t do that at all against Illinois. I do believe there is talent on the line and their youth and inexperience is the biggest issue but that is on the coaches too. The group is young because the coaches failed over multiple classes to recruit, retain, and develop any offensive linemen that would be upper classmen now. For a coaching staff that prides itself on its offensive line coaching and development, they failed. They also failed to do what every other school in the country seems to do when they miss at a position, use the transfer portal. I’ll get to that in a moment. This is all in addition to the coaching staff’s inability to do anything schematically to help out an offensive line that they admit is young and struggling. I’ll get to the scheme issues too. Iowa’s offense has always been based on the strength of their offensive line, and they just aren’t very good right now.

The bad offensive line play doesn’t absolve QB Spencer Petras of his horrific play. His numbers for the Michigan game looked like a marked improvement but anyone who watched that game knows he padded his stats late against Michigan’s backups who were simply trying to get the game over with. I’m sure Petras is a great guy, I’m sure his teammates love him, and I’m sure he will be a productive man for the rest of his life, but he’s a bad QB. The rest of this team (well the defense, special teams, TEs and Kaleb Johnson, anyway) deserve better from their QB. Perhaps Ferentz and Ferentz (that would be Kirk and Brian) are correct that Petras is better than the other QBs, that’s a scary thought. It’s absolutely frightening to think that the coaches haven’t developed Alex Padilla or Joe Labas to the point that they are any better that what we are witnessing from Petras. It may be true that Petras understands what to do in any give situation better than Padilla or Labas (I would hope that’s true since he’s been in the offense five years and starting for the last three). However, he simply can’t execute what needs to be done, he holds the ball too long too often, and when he has time, he still misses open receivers. Again, there are coaching issues schematically too. Why would any coach, with Spencer Petras as their QB, call a rollout to the left side of the formation and expect Petras to complete a pass going that way when everyone knows he can’t make that pass? Only a play caller who’s in over his head would make that call, and then make that call again a week later.

The WR group is in rough shape, some of that is due to injury, some of that is due to players transferring out, and some of that is because the offense is terrible. They haven’t had Keagan Johnson (with the exception of one game this year) but he wouldn’t cure all that ails this passing game (Jerry Rice couldn’t save this passing game). Brody Brecht was hurt early and hasn’t found his place in this offense, Nico Ragaini was banged up to start the year, Diante Vines is still out with a wrist injury, and the rest of the group isn’t worth mentioning. WRs Charlie Jones, Tyrone Tracy, Calvin Lockett, Quavon Matthews, and Desmond Hutson all transferred from Iowa since the beginning of last year and while only Jones has proven to be a major player in a major conference elsewhere, this left Iowa with absolutely no depth to develop when injuries struck. When other schools have this kind of issue at a position they look to the transfer portal to find guys looking for an opportunity (literally the reason Purdue got two guys from Iowa). The problem is that the coaches rarely look that way and WRs don’t see Iowa’s offense as an opportunity, they’re correct in that assessment. The twenty-year-old offense simply doesn’t attract skill position players and it literally chased off Charlie Jones who left to find a place that would use his talents (beyond being a punt returner).

This leads me to the program wide issues that are becoming quite apparent. Kirk Ferentz not only doesn’t like change, he goes out of his way to avoid it. The problem is that college football has undergone radical changes on the field over the last two decades, and even more radical changes off the field over the last couple of years. The transfer portal and NIL (name, image, and likeness) have changed the way you have to approach players. Conference realignment and expansion are changing the way you have to approach your program. The transfer portal has taken away from Iowa this year but the coaches didn’t use it to get anyone of significance unless you count a backup TE from a Division III school who hasn’t contributed. Clearly, Iowa could have used a QB, some offensive linemen who might be ready to play right away, and a receiver or two or three. The truth is the Hawkeyes could have used an infusion of talent everywhere on offense (okay, they really didn’t need a TE, go figure). Even at RB, the team had Gavin Williams and Leshon Williams but if you haven’t noticed, true freshman Kaleb Johnson is the most talented back they have. Williams and Williams are solid RBs but if a truly special RB wanted to transfer to Iowa last spring, would you have turned them down?

Kirk Ferentz has spent over two decades telling us that Iowa isn’t “sexy” and that we are what we are, but why? College football is changing, why can’t Iowa get in on that change. It isn’t going to get easier in the Big Ten. When the divisions go away Iowa’s path to a Big Ten championship becomes infinitely harder. It’s not about competing with Wisconsin or Minnesota or Purdue for a division title and a shot in the Big Ten Championship game, if you want to compete for a Big Ten Championship you have to compete with Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St. Iowa can do that, it is possible, but the coaching staff has to be willing to be a modern college football program. College football isn’t what it was even two years ago as a sport. There are those who will say “be careful what you wish for”, moving on from a steady coach like Ferentz can go bad quickly, just ask Nebraska. That’s bullshit, that’s a loser’s mentality. If Gary Barta is scared he can’t hire a good coach, he shouldn’t be the guy doing the hiring. There are good men, who are good coaches, who would fit into the Iowa culture and could actually update the offense. Iowa has to decide if it wants to be a 7-5 or 8-4 team at it’s peak or if it wants to compete for the conference title and maybe a playoff spot someday. Hell, there’s going to be 12 playoff spots pretty soon, Iowa’s not getting there with this offense.

So what needs to happen? Brian Ferentz needs to go, that’s the smallest change that has to happen. That probably means Kirk needs to go but there is a way out for him. Stay with me, I know it’s hard to believe. We know Kirk Ferentz isn’t firing his son and we certainly know Gary Barta isn’t firing Brian without Kirk’s blessing even though Barta is technically Brian’s supervisor. That means there’s only one way out for Kirk. Brian Ferentz is a grown man, he’s almost 40, he’s been in the coaching profession for quite a while and in football even longer. Brian has to be the one to step up here. Brian has to rightfully take the bullet for his father’s legacy. In the post Illinois loss press conference when asked about Brian, Kirk said he was a good football coach, and he is, he’s just not an offensive coordinator or quarterbacks coach. Brian needs to walk into Gary Barta’s office, hand him his resignation letter and Barta has to accept it no matter what Kirk wants. Then Barta has to get a little tough with Kirk and tell him, hand over the offense to someone else or start planning for retirement. It is the beginning of the end for Kirk one way or another. Brian is still young enough to go to the NFL as an o-line or TE coach and rehab his reputation. Brian isn’t an offensive coordinator, he’s not a play caller, there’s nothing wrong with that. There are a lot of coaches who are really good who aren’t play callers, there are guys who have become head coaches without being a coordinator. Kirk Ferentz is one, Dabo Swinney has won two National Championships at Clemson and he was really only the OC there for part of a year when he was the interim head coach. Brian can rehab his reputation in the NFL and potentially end up a head coach somewhere five years from now (not here). His career can be salvaged, he needs to save his father’s legacy by walking away.

Finally, Kirk needs to save his legacy. If he can handle Brian walking away he has to pivot to a modern way of playing offense. That doesn’t mean Iowa goes to an air raid offense, that isn’t even what teams are doing these days. The outside zone running that Iowa does is actually quite popular in the NFL these days but teams are approaching it differently. The Shanahan family tree of coaches, which is extensive at this point, has looked to modernize that running attack with more mobile QBs who can use it to their advantage. It isn’t impossible for Iowa to be a run first, hard-nosed defense, great special teams team and actually compete. The offense doesn’t have to be discarded, it has to updated.

The fear is that if Iowa doesn’t change the offense, the good players they do have will transfer, that’s a fact of college football these days. Sam LaPorta is heading to the NFL, Luke Lachey won’t be too far behind him. Iowa has to hold onto guys like Kaleb Johnson, Keagan Johnson, Arland Bruce IV, and even guys like Jaziun Patterson and Brody Brecht (he’s not transferring but he might decide to just stick to baseball if we never throw him a pass). Spencer Petras is a senior (and if he wants to use his Covid year, enjoy whatever Division II school will have you), Alex Padilla probably isn’t the QB of the future if he can’t look better than Petras. Joe Labas deserves a shot if he likes the new coordinator. If not, Iowa can look to the transfer portal and there are always QBs looking for opportunities, but they will only look at Iowa if there’s a new offense in place.

I don’t want to see a sad slow ending to Kirk Ferentz’s career at Iowa, he has done too many good things. However, if he’s not willing to make the changes necessary, name a street after him, put a statue outside the football offices if you have to, but wish him good luck because it’s time to move on.

I thought I was about as pessimistic about the Iowa Hawkeye offense as I could be and yet I undersold it by a lot. The defense was as elite as I thought they would be and Tory Taylor made it as difficult as possible for the Jackrabbits to get anything going but the offense keep SDSU in the game all day. The offensive line wasn’t great, the WRs weren’t great, the offensive game plan was nonexistent and Spencer Petras was downright awful. Kirk Ferentz can talk about “cleaning things up” and how everyone has responsibility but his coach speak is absolutely tiresome. The only reason this was the Almost Disaster Game is because Iowa’s defense won it, they may not be so lucky next week and they certainly won’t be this lucky in Big Ten play.

Petras may look good during practice but it’s easy to look good when the defense isn’t allowed to hit you. When the “bullets are flying”, so to speak, Petras is bad. His footwork is terrible, his mechanics fall apart and he can’t complete the simplest of passes. Even when he gets time in the pocket, he rushes as if he’s under duress, and misses open receivers. His throws are behind guys, over guys, or five feet out in front of guys (he should apologize to Sam LaPorta, Leshon Williams, Alec Wick, and many others). Understanding the offense in theory and completing passes in controlled practice environments is nice but Ferentz needs to take off his rose-colored glasses and watch Petras during the games. I understand it’s a tough watch, I know, I did it myself, it’s no fun watching abject failure, but that’s the job.

I’ve been as apprehensive as anyone of turning the offense over to Alex Padilla. He didn’t show me anything last year that makes me think he’s the absolute answer to solve the QB problems but you have to at least start there. Give him a chance to see if he can step up in a game atmosphere, he wasn’t great last year but he wasn’t Petras-level bad. His ability to move around should be helpful behind an offensive line that still isn’t a sure thing. If he doesn’t take control of the offense, what’s the harm in giving Joe Labas a shot? The book on Labas is that he isn’t great at running the designed offense but when it breaks down, he’s really good at improvising. From what I saw on Saturday, this offense could use some creativity, even if it’s just coming from a QB who’s making it up as he goes.

The offensive line had it’s struggles, it couldn’t get any push in the running game but that’s hard to do when the defense isn’t remotely scared of your QB or your passing game. The pass blocking has some holes too and it certainly isn’t going to get an easier next week against Iowa St. The Jackrabbits had a solid defensive line but they didn’t have anyone like ISU’s Will McDonald. Spencer Petras is a statue in the pocket and that isn’t going to bode well against a better pass rusher. I have confidence the offensive line can get better, they have talent, but they aren’t going to be great by next week and this offense isn’t doing them any favors. The play calling is unimaginative, Petras always holds the ball at least a second too long, and it’s hard to run block when there’s always eight or nine guys in the box. The running game won’t get going as long as Iowa’s opponents don’t respect the passing game and after watching Petras on Saturday, no one is scared of Iowa’s passing game except Iowa fans.

The defense was as elite as I thought it would be even without getting much rest since the offense couldn’t sustain a drive for any reasonable amount of time. Tory Taylor was an absolute star as a punter and Iowa doesn’t come close to winning this game without his excellence and that of the special team’s coverage units. I respect the man Kirk Ferentz has always been but his inability to see what is right in front of him is going to diminish his on field legacy at Iowa. His refusal to acknowledge the obvious problems with his offense is simply unacceptable. People like to talk about a coach who led his team to 10 wins and a Big Ten West title last season, but just think of what the Hawkeyes could have been if the offense was even remotely competent. I said I thought Iowa’s defense could be top five in the country, and I truly believe it. With this defense the Hawkeyes might win the West again even if the offense is bottom ten in the country. But what if Iowa could field an offense at some point that was top fifty in the country? (That’s really not asking much) That team could make a College Football Playoff push. That team would certainly be playing in a major bowl game. It’s simply a dereliction of duty for Ferentz to continue to trot out an offense that is this bad, it has gone on too long. I hate to say this but either the head coach makes a change or the head coach has to change.

The 2022 Iowa Hawkeyes are going to be an interesting bunch.  The offense is the great unknown. They were quite terrible last year and there isn’t a bunch of changes that make me confident they can be better.  It’s been a tough training camp with injuries especially at WR and some key ones on the offensive line.  The line will be young again but most of them got some experience last season, well, some of them did anyway. Kirk Ferentz’s overall offensive philosophy has always been conservative, don’t turn the ball over, don’t put your defense in a bad position and win close games. I think that philosophy is wrong when you have defense like this one. Take chances, who cares if you screw up, this defense will stop anyone, anytime, anywhere. The defense has a chance to be one of the best in the country, legitimately, top five in the nation.

Iowa released its two-deeps for the first game against South Dakota St. but those rarely reflect reality.  I’m skipping a look at the official two-deeps for a look at a more realistic look at the roster.  The offense is going to be a work in progress with a bunch of injuries keeping guys out and the offensive line is in flux. I love this defense.  The offense might give me an ulcer.  Welcome to being an Iowa Hawkeye football fan for 2022.  Here’s a look at what might be this year for the Hawkeyes.

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Starter: Spencer Petras (SR)

Backup: Alex Padilla (JR)

When Kirk Ferentz talked about the QB job being an open competition what he really meant was someone was going to have to take the job from Petras and Padilla just hasn’t been able to do that.  I had high hopes for Petras last year but I have much lower expectations this season, that said, I saw nothing out of Padilla that makes me think he’s a serious upgrade and clearly the coaching staff feels the same way.  Joe Labas, the third-string redshirt freshman didn’t seem to make any headway either, he’s not really even in competition for the backup job.  This offense isn’t going to be pass heavy with a QB that doesn’t inspire confidence and WR corps that looks like the walking dead. 

Wide Receivers

Starters: Keagan Johnson (SO), Arland Bruce (SO), Nico Ragaini (SR) (when healthy)

Backups: Alec Wick (RS Fr), Brody Brecht (RS Fr), Jacob Bostick (FR)

This unit is in dire straits at the moment.  Keagan Johnson has been out of action with an unknown ailment for quite some time and it’s a mystery if he’ll be a go in week one.  He’s the most talented WR the Hawkeyes have and they need him badly. Nico Ragaini is the most experienced guy they have and he’s also out with an injury to start the year.  He should be back but he’s going to miss several weeks.  The team also lost Jackson Ritter to a season ending knee injury, he played as a walk-on last season.  Diante Vines was reportedly having a good camp with all the guys out and was looking to finally make a move for playing time, then he got hurt (broken wrist), he could miss half the year.  Brody Brecht is a talented redshirt freshman who has also missed almost all of camp with an injury after missing much of last year with an injury.  He needs the practice and he just hasn’t had it at this point.  I think that covers the major injuries.  Let’s look at who’s left.

The most important WR is Arland Bruce IV.  He’s a playmaker and those are in short supply with this unit.  He’s going to be the focal point of the group until Johnson gets back. He can play inside or out and they are going to have to look for favorable matchups for him in space, he can be dynamic.  Alec Wick is a walk-on redshirt freshman and he’s going to get plenty of snaps to start the year.  He’s been steady and healthy, two things this team needs.  Brody Brecht just returned to practice and the team is hoping he can pick things up quickly and give them some quality snaps as the big, outside receiver.  Jacob Bostick is a true freshman they were probably hoping to redshirt but he and Bruce are the only scholarship WRs to be healthy throughout camp, he’s at least going to play the first few games until they get some guys back. 

Running Back/Fullback

Starters: Gavin Williams (SO), Monte Pottebaum (SR)

Backups: Leshon Williams (SO), Kaleb Johnson (FR), Jaziun Patterson (FR), Turner Pallissard (SR)

The running game is going to take on an outsized importance especially early in the year when with so much uncertainty at the WR position.  Gavin Williams started the bowl game last season and Leshon Williams played quite a bit too.  They both looked good running hard and getting up field behind an improved offensive line.  Gavin Williams has missed some time during training camp allowing Leshon Williams to step up and that also allowed Kaleb Johnson, a true freshman, to really show out.  Johnson is a special talent and he will play this season.  That’s three running backs who will get carries.  Jaziun Patterson is another talented freshman who could also get some playing time.  If all three guys ahead of him are healthy, his opportunities might be limited. 

Monte Pottebaum is a very good fullback and in Iowa’s offense, that actually means something.  He gives the Hawkeyes an excellent blocker, a guy who can get some carries, and a guy who can catch out of the backfield.  He could even give them some reps at TE if they need him.  Turner Pallissard is more than capable of playing fullback if they need to move Pottebaum around.    

Tight End

Starters: Sam LaPorta (SR), Luke Lachey (SO)

Backups: Addison Ostrenga (FR), Steven Stilianos (JR)

Sam LaPorta has been a mainstay in this offense since his freshman year and he’s only getting better.  His role will expand quite a bit with the problems at WR.  LaPorta is going to be asked to split out wide a bit more and play the X receiver spot to make up for the WR deficiencies and that’s not a bad thing.  He is more than capable of being a weapon outside and luckily some guys are stepping up at TE to allow LaPorta to move around.  I’m listing Luke Lachey as a starter because there’s no way they are going to pass up two TE sets with LaPorta and Lachey in favor of using WRs when the WR group is so thin.  Lachey is a massive breakout candidate and his development is a big reason they are comfortable moving LaPorta around.  Lachey is a massive target over the middle and he can have big year. 

Addison Ostrenga is a true freshman that seems to get praise every time people talk about him.  It’s not unheard of for a freshman to play and it’s good to know the future of the TE position looks to be in good hands.  Stilianos is a transfer from a smaller school who’s still getting up to speed on the offense but he’s an older player with good size and they can find a role for him. 

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Mason Richman (SO), LG Tyler Elsbury (SO), C Logan Jones (SO), RG Gennings Dunker (RS Fr), Connor Colby (SO) (This is the group I would like to see get playing time together)

Backups: Jack Plumb (SR), Beau Stephens (RS Fr), Michael Myslinski (RS Fr), Nick DeJong (JR), Matt Fagan

Have you ever tried to nail Jell-O to a wall?  That’s what it’s been like trying to piece together who’s starting where on this offensive line.  Mason Richman was out for a bit during camp but he’s supposed to be back practicing and if he’s healthy, he’s the starting LT.  His injury (and possibly some other players ailments) apparently led to Connor Colby moving from RG to RT in practice out of necessity.  My guess is his talent could keep him at RT.  Colby started as a true freshman at RG and he’s so talented.  I think his move to tackle will stick.  Logan Jones was a DT last year, now he’s the starting center.  Iowa’s pulled off that transition before, let’s hope this one works out just as well.  The guard positions are harder to decern.  Tyler Elsbury has looked good and I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Gennings Dunker has emerged as a beast inside and that gives the coaches more confidence in leaving Colby outside with Dunker able to hold down the RG spot.  Dunker isn’t listed on the official two-deeps at all and that seemed to come as news to Kirk Ferentz in his weekly press conference.  Hence the reason I put little stock in what the two-deeps say.   

Plumb is a senior who has started at both LT and RT and if Richman isn’t ready week one, Plumb gets the start at LT.  Unfortunately for him, I think Colby will prove to be a better RT and that means if Richman is back, Plumb is the swing tackle. Nick DeJong is the other backup tackle who could also man a guard spot if needed.  He struggled last year at RT and has fallen behind some younger guys at this point but he’s an experienced backup if needed.  Beau Stephens and Michael Myslinski could very well end up starters at some point.  Stephens could start instead of Elsbury at LG, I’m going with Elsbury out of gut instinct.  Myslinski seems to have lost the starting center job to Jones but if Jones struggles, they could go with Myslinski at some point. I don’t think Jones will struggle that much but he is young and inexperienced (so is Myslinski for that matter).  Matt Fagan is a senior walk-on who gives them some depth inside but he’s been passed up by a lot of younger guys so he’s really just a depth piece at this point.  It would be nice if the Hawkeyes could find five guys, settle on them as starters, and have a consistent offensive line.  This is one seriously young group with only Plumb, DeJong, and Fagan as upper classmen.  These guys are really talented but it could be a development year up front. 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Starters: DE John Waggoner (SR), DT Noah Shannon (SR), Logan Lee (JR), Lukas Van Ness (SO)

Backups: DE Joe Evans (SR), DE Deontae Craig (SO), DE Ethan Hurkett (SO), DT Yahya Black (SO), DT Aaron Graves (FR)

This is the best and deepest position on the team.  I’ve listed nine guys for four spots but there are legitimately four other guys who could see action but let’s look at the starters.  John Waggoner is the rock at DE, he’s not flashy but he’s consistent and tough.  I’m actually hoping for one of those breakout senior years we have seen from guys before.  He’s been a solid starter, now maybe he gets a little bit more of the spotlight.  However, that’s going to be hard to do with Lukas Van Ness at the other end.  Van Ness tied for the team lead last year in sacks as a backup DT, now it looks like he could move to end full-time. Joe Evans (I’ll get to him in a minute) missed some action in camp and opened the door for Van Ness at end.  This could be a Connor Colby type of situation; he moved out of necessity but stays because he’s just too good.  Van Ness has a chance to not only be a breakout star for Iowa, he could be a national breakout star.  Evans is listed as the starter officially but I just can’t see Van Ness being a backup DT (as he’s listed) with his potential. 

The DT spot is in great hands too.  Noah Shannon has been a steady player who is also ready to be more dominant inside.  Logan Lee has also come on strong since he came back from an injury last year and is only getting better. These two have to be at their very best because Yahya Black is coming hard for his playing time after being a starter early last season.  Black has the size that Shannon and Lee don’t really possess and you will see these three rotate plenty at tackle.

Joe Evans was supposed to finally be a starter at DE but he may have lost that spot due to no fault of his own.  Iowa will rotate DEs and Evans will play plenty but Van Ness is too good to keep off the field.  Ethan Hurkett has also looked good during camp and the coaches like Deontae Craig too.  He was a backup last year when he was healthy.  That’s five DEs, luckily Van Ness can play inside too (I don’t think he comes off the field that much).  True freshmen rarely play on the defensive line but Aaron Graves is a rare true freshman.  Kirk Ferentz has talked openly about Graves looking like he belongs so they are going to use him.  He doesn’t have to be a superstar for this group right now, but he has future superstar written all over him.  I mentioned there is even more depth. DT Louie Stec, DE Max Llewellyn, DT Jeremiah Pittman, and DE Chris Reames have all been mentioned at times as having good camps.  By my count, that’s 13 defensive linemen that could conceivably get snaps, that’s insane depth. 

Linebackers

Starters: MLB Jack Campbell (SR), WLB Seth Benson (SR), LEO Jestin Jacobs (JR), CASH Cooper DeJean (SO)S

Backups: Jay Higgins (JR), Kyler Fisher (JR), Karson Sharar (RS Fr)

This LB corps is being mentioned as one of the best ever at Iowa and that’s saying something.  Jack Campbell is a preseason All-American, top pick for Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and that might be underselling how good he is.  He’s big, he’s fast, he’s athletic, he’s a leader, and he sets the tone for this defense.  He’s joined by his running mate Seth Benson, the most overlooked defender in the country.  He’s Scottie Pippen to Campbell’s Michael Jordan.  Benson is a stud and he doesn’t get the attention he deserves, except from opposing offenses, they know how good he is.  Iowa instituted the CASH position a few years ago to help combat the spread offenses they were seeing and it’s been a big success, this year you will see less of it.  It’s not because it’s not effective or they don’t have the talent to run it, it’s because Jestin Jacobs is too good to keep off the field.  He’s a fast, super athletic LB who can do everything you want a LB to do, it’s an embarrassment of riches for Phil Parker’s defense.  Cooper DeJean is one of the best athletes you’re going to see in college football this year.  He’s ready to step into the CASH role when they use it but when he isn’t playing there, he’ll be a CB, a safety, a kick returner and if things get much worse at WR…don’t say I didn’t warn you (I’m kidding but maybe I shouldn’t be).

Jay Higgins and Kyler Fisher are guys who would start for a lot of teams in college football this season, the just have the unfortunate luck to play on a team that is absolutely stacked at LB.  They will both be major players on special teams and when Campbell, Benson, and Jacobs need a breather, they will step in just fine.  I mention Karson Sharar because he’s received a lot of praise as a young LB who looks poised to step in when it’s his turn.  He probably won’t get a ton of snaps on defense this year, but remember his name. 

Defensive Backs

Starters: CB Riley Moss (SR), CB Terry Roberts (SR), SS Kaevon Merriweather (SR), FS Quinn Schulte (JR)

Backups: CB Cooper DeJean (SO), CB TJ Hall (FR), CB Jermari Harris (JR), S Xavier Nwankpa (FR), S Sebastian Castro (JR), S Reggie Bracy (JR)

The Iowa defense is stacked and the secondary is no exception.  Riley Moss was the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year last season and yet he returned for his fifth year.  He’s a preseason All-American like his teammate Jack Campbell and he leads this unit.  Terry Roberts will get the start in week one with Jermari Harris suspended for an offseason OWI but don’t expect Roberts to just hand the job back to Harris after that.  Harris has also missed time in camp with an injury so it’s Roberts’ job until further notice.  Kaevon Merriweather returns for his senior year as the strong safety, he’s a great athlete who has only gotten better over the years.  FS Quinn Schulte is the former walk-on who Phil Parker turned into a starter on the back end of the defense.  It’s a pretty typical Phil Parker success story, he finds underappreciated high school athletes, brings them in as defensive backs, and develops them into Big Ten starters.  Schulte has earned this spot for sure; he’s holding off guys like Cooper DeJean, five-star true freshman Xavier Nwankpa, Reggie Bracy, and Sebastian Castro, all guys who could be starting safeties. 

DeJean is listed as the backup at one CB spot, he could start there if he wasn’t starting at CASH.  He could also potentially start at SS, FS, DE, QB, WR, FB…wherever they need him, just keep him on the field.  Jermari Harris would likely have been the starting CB opposite Moss but he had an OWI in the offseason, he got hurt in camp, and he has to make his way back up the depth chart.  He can do it, but it won’t be handed to him.  True freshman TJ Hall came in at semester last year and competed during spring practice.  He’s a talented youngster the coaches are pretty high on.  He’s a backup while Harris is suspended but he could get snaps even when he gets back.  Sebastian Castro and Reggie Bracy have put in the time and are still waiting patiently for their opportunity.  They are really solid backup options at safety.  Xavier Nwankpa is as talented a freshman as Iowa has ever had, he’ll get some playing time but they may still be figuring out is best position.  Is it SS, FS, CASH, or otherwise?  He can play all over.   

Special Teams

Kicker: Drew Stevens (TR Fr) and Aaron Blom (SO) have been battling it out since the spring.  They both have gotten better since then and they both could have a role early. 

Punter: Tory Taylor is one of the best punters in the country.  He also happens to be a good-looking dude with an Australian accent.  All I’m saying is it’s Tory Taylor’s world and we are all just living in it.    

Returners: This is a bit of a mystery after Charlie Jones transferred to Purdue.  Cooper DeJean is up for the job; Riley Moss might be the guy.  They would probably give Arland Bruce IV a shot but they can’t risk him with the rest of the WRs so banged up. DeJean and Moss are the leaders but just for fun some other names to consider; WR Alec Wick, WR Kaden Wetjen, RB Leshon Williams, RB Jaziun Patterson, RB Deavin Hilson, DB Xavier Nwankpa, CB Terry Roberts, CB AJ Lawson or who knows, maybe someone else.