2023 Iowa Hawkeyes Spring Review

I have been avoiding writing about the 2023 Iowa Hawkeyes because I still have some trauma to work through after watching last year’s offense redefine the word putrid.  I started to get a little hope when the transfer portal opened last December and the Hawkeyes landed several impact players, not the least of which was Cade McNamara, the former Michigan QB.  Then the bowl game came and went and my hopes felt dashed when there were no staff changes (okay it was really just Brian Ferentz I wanted gone with a new offensive coordinator from anywhere but here). 

Brian Ferentz remains the offensive coordinator and I have little faith he can make any meaningful changes.  It’s still Kirk Ferentz’s offense but Brian is the play caller and he proved last year, he has almost no imagination.  With a month to prepare for the bowl game it seems he came up with four new plays, ran them to start the game against Kentucky, and then when they all worked, he never used them again.  All of this led to the embarrassment that is Brian’s new contract he struck with Gary Barta.  Standards set so low for the offense it’s ridiculous that they wasted the paper to write them down.  Barta showed he has no power over Brian Ferentz even though Brian “reports” to Barta to circumvent the University’s nepotism rules.  The only thing more embarrassing than Brian’s new contract was last year’s offense.

The hope was that the new transfers would help Iowa overcome its antiquated offense and that Cade McNamara’s influence might open things up a bit.  That hope took a serious hit when spring practice opened and a bunch of injuries stalled any possible progress from being made. Cade McNamara was only able to partially participate (we knew this was going to happen before spring started). New WR Seth Anderson missed all of camp with a soft tissue injury, new RT hopeful Daijon Parker was injured almost immediately and missed all of spring along with a slew of injuries that took out most of the starting offensive line for some or all of spring.  The offensive line was terrible last year and needed the practice.  It was tough to see any progress being made when only one scholarship WR was healthy for spring practice too. 

It was clear from very early on that Iowa needed more depth and more talent at the WR position and it needed to come from the transfer portal.  The portal hadn’t been as fruitful when it came to WR as many had hoped with only Anderson joining during the initial portal window.  It’s hard to blame the higher ranked WRs for wanting to play in a better offense.  Then a funny thing happened just as the spring transfer portal window was closing, Kaleb Brown from Ohio St. entered.  The realist in me never thought for a second that Brown would seriously consider Iowa, then he scheduled a visit, and it came very quickly.  Even more improbably, he quickly cancelled his other planned visits and committed to Iowa after being hosted by Cade McNamara and connecting with Xavier Nwankpa and getting a deal with the Iowa Swarm collective.  Hope comes once again. 

This is the experience of being a Hawkeye fan in 2023.  The ebbs and flows, the ups and downs, the twists and turns, it’s like being on the world’s worst roller coaster…I hate roller coasters.  Watch a video of Cade McNamara simply speaking about playing at Iowa and you’re in on the Hawkeyes competing for the Big Ten Championship.  Remember that Iowa’s offensive line was terrible and the two new comers are Daijon Parker, a guy who missed spring practice with an injury and Rusty Feth, a guard who hasn’t stepped on campus yet.  Then look at TEs Luke Lachey and Eric All and you see visions of TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant destroying defenses before going on to the NFL.  Then you realize Brian Ferentz is still the play caller.  You hear whispers that Jon Budmayr is working hands on with the QBs and his finger prints might be all over this offense due to his connection with Cade McNamara.  Then you realize his only play calling experience was with a bad Colorado St. team a couple of years ago (it wasn’t his fault; his head coach was awful). The roller coaster is nearly out of control.  

While the offensive line didn’t have time to work together during the spring, the injuries did afford some extra practice time for some young guys and there appears to be progress.  Beau Stephens and Gennings Dunker seemed to be holding their own against Iowa’s defense by the end of spring practice and that’s a good development.  If those two can be better the offensive line has a chance to be better and deeper.  Logan Jones was the only constant on the line during the spring and hopefully he’s making progress too. 

There’s potential for Iowa to opens next season with six new transfer starters on offense; QB Cade McNamara, WRs Kaleb Brown and Seth Anderson, TE Erick All (Iowa will almost assuredly use a two-TE set), RT Daijon Parker and RG Rusty Feth.  What does this all mean? It means there are no more talent excuses for Brian and Kirk.  They can’t blame any poor offensive showings on the talent on the team.  They never explicitly said it last year but Brian implied it when he talked about how he did the best he could with what he had.  Should I avoid pointing out that a lack of talent on the team falls on the coaches who recruit the players?  This offense has the pieces it needs to be good.  I said it before, Iowa’s elite defense just needs a functional offense.  Imagine what Iowa could have accomplished the last two years if the offense hadn’t been a complete trainwreck.  Last year’s defense was an elite unit, the good news is this year’s defense could be just as good.  Let’s take a closer look at the team.

Quarterback

Starter: Cade McNamara (Sr)

Backup: Deacon Hill (Soph)

The fact that these two are at the top of the depth chart is an indication that Jon Budmayr’s influence will be felt on the offense.  Both of these QBs are transfers who came to Iowa largely due to their connection to Budmayr and are already ahead of Joe Labas, the bowl game starter.  McNamara was a given, he didn’t transfer to Iowa to sit on the bench or even to compete, he’s here to start.  Hill is a different story.  The fact that he has already moved ahead of Labas (Kirk confirmed this at his post spring practice press conference) means that the Iowa offense that has always been so difficult for QBs to understand, is changing in some ways. 

The understanding has always been that Iowa’s offense is so hard to understand it takes years for QBs to get it (the joke being that it only takes opposing defensive coordinators a week to understand it).  Well Cade McNamara hasn’t even needed to fully practice to have won the starting job and Deacon Hill knows it well enough that he passed Labas as the backup.  Clearly, there are some changes to make the offense simpler and less cumbersome, that would be a welcome change. 

Running Back

Starter: Kaleb Johnson (Soph)

Backups: Leshon Williams (Jr), Jaziun Patterson (RS Fr)

Not much to report on here.  Kaleb Johnson took over the job last season and if the offensive line can open some holes, he’s going to be a star.  Iowa is always going to run the ball; they just need to be more effective.  Johnson has superstar potential, it’s just harder to see when there’s 11 defenders within seven yards of the line of scrimmage.  Williams is a more than capable backup but I like him in the backup role more than I did as a starter.  Patterson showed some flashes in limited action last year and I really like his potential as a complement to Johnson.  Iowa’s running game will undergo a pretty significant change as it looks like the fullback position will, at the very least, change into more of an H-back type.  Iowa doesn’t have a traditional fullback so we will likely see some others positions used.  More two-TE sets with one maybe lining up in the backfield when needed.   

Wide Receiver

Starters: Kaleb Brown (RS Fr), Nico Ragaini (Sr), Seth Anderson (Soph)

Backups: Diante Vines (Jr), Jacob Bostick (RS Fr), The true freshmen

This isn’t what the depth chart looks like coming out of spring and I’m sure it’s not what Kirk or Brian would tell you it is.  They will give Vines and Ragaini the respect of being guys who have been here, however, if Iowa’s offense wants to be good, Brown and Anderson are the keys.  Ragaini is going to be a perfectly fine slot receiver but he would be far more useful if Brown and Anderson can be threats outside. Vines might finally develop now that he has a good QB throwing to him but the team needs difference makers and those are Brown and Anderson. 

Kaleb Brown is a thought piece right now, he’s a projection, so is Anderson to a certain extent.  The issue is talent and skill set.  Brown has the speed and skill that made him a 4-star prospect that Ohio St. signed last year and he had offers from Alabama, Notre Dame, and so many other top programs.  That type of skill is non-existent in Iowa’s WR corps.  No one Iowa has threatens the defense down the field like Brown can.  He isn’t the tallest WR being only 5’10 but he has legit deep speed.  He is also a solidly built 198 lbs. so he looks pretty stout for a guy who was a freshman last season.  Brown’s speed changes the math on defense, teams have to respect the deep part of the field.  It opens things up underneath for the TEs and backs the safeties off to make the box lighter for the running game.    

Anderson wasn’t a highly recruited guy out of high school but he was a productive player at Charleston Southern.  He had 42 catches which doesn’t sound like a lot but other than Nico Ragaini Iowa doesn’t have a guy with any real college football playing experience at WR.  Diante Vines has 10 career receptions, that’s not all on him but it’s hard to say he should automatically be considered a starter.  I think Vines can be a useful WR but Anderson has shone more proof that he’s a functional WR.  Either way, Iowa’s WR group is in much better shape with Anderson and Brown towards the top.  It allows Vines, Bostick, and the three true freshmen to find their footing, not be pressed into roles too big for them.  A staring group of Brown, the deep threat, Anderson, the complementary outside guy, and Ragaini in the slot, looks a lot better than last year’s disaster.  Now, they all just have to stay healthy. 

Tight End

Starters: Luke Lachey (Jr), Erick All (Sr)

Backups: Addison Ostrenga (Soph), Steven Stilianos (Sr)

The Erick All transfer keeps the Iowa TE group towards the top of the position in college football.  Luke Lachey is ready to break out and All looks to be healthy after missing most of last year.  Both guys can be difference makers and that would be a lot easier if the WR group can help them out by taking some of the coverage away.  Lachey and All can be matchup nightmares with their size and athleticism and they can make plays, move the chains, and if all goes well, they will be nearly impossible to stop in the red zone. 

The backups aren’t too shabby either.  Ostrenga is a young guy who is still filling out physically but you can see the makings of a very good player.  Stilianos was a small school transfer last year who hopefully has adjusted to big time college football and can provide depth. 

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Mason Richman (Jr), LG Connor Colby (Jr), C Logan Jones (Jr), RG Rusty Feth (Sr), RT Daijon Parker (Sr)O

Backups: OT Jack Dotzler (RS Fr), G/T Nick DeJong (Sr), G/T Gennings Dunker (Soph), OG Beau Stephens (Soph), OG Tyler Elsbury (Jr), C Mike Myslinski (Soph)

This is where things get very interesting.  Again, I’m making an assumption on the offensive line the same way I made one at WR.  Rusty Feth and Daijon Parker didn’t transfer to Iowa to sit on the bench.  Parker was out during spring after having surgery and that meant that Nick DeJong got a chance to play RT and so did Gennings Dunker.  Kirk Ferentz is always complementary towards a former walk-on senior like DeJong but I’ve watched him for too many years and he needs to be a backup.  Dunker is an ascending player who has versatility but the reason Iowa recruited Parker in the portal was to buy time for guys like Dunker and Dotzler at OT because they are young and aren’t ready just yet.  They are the type of developmental guys that could really ascend but hopefully it isn’t necessary until 2024. 

Mason Richman is locked in at LT and he played much better in second half of last season after Connor Colby moved to LG next to him.  Colby was miscast as a RT out of necessity to start last year and was finally benched during the Ohio St. game.  The good news was after being pulled at RT they eventually put him at LG and left side of the line stabilized.  Richman was better because he had Colby playing at a position he’s really good at.  Colby is a guard not a tackle, and he’s a really good guard.  Both guys missed time in spring with injuries but they should be locked in on that side. 

Logan Jones struggled a lot at center last year.  It was everything from the line calls to simply snapping the ball.  When your offense can’t pull off the most basic thing, the QB/center exchange, you’re working from a deficit.  The good news is you could see Jones get better at the shotgun snap from the beginning of the season to the end, it makes me think he can get better at all of it.  Hopefully with a year of playing time and potentially an offense that won’t ask as much of him, he can concentrate on just playing football.  Jones is a physical freak and if they can harness that, he’ll be fine. 

Like I said, Feth and Parker didn’t come here to sit and once Feth arrives this summer and Parker is healed up, I expect those two to form the right side of the line.  Both are seniors with one year of eligibility to use, they were brought in to give the young guys time to develop and that’s what they will do.  Feth has the flexibility to play center if Jones stumbles but more importantly, he should be a stabilizer next to him to make him more comfortable with the calls.  With talented guards like Colby and Feth flanking him Jones should feel more comfortable with everything.  Parker has flexibility to move inside to guard or over to LT if injuries strike and that gives the Hawkeyes more depth, that was something they were sorely lacking last year.  But if all goes well, Parker takes the RT job and excels at it, and he and Feth have a great year.   

The young guys like Jack Dotzler, Gennings Dunker, and Beau Stephens are guys who just need time to develop physically and mentally, once they do, the talent is there.  Nick DeJong is a break-in-case-of-emergency offensive lineman.  He should only play if injury necessitates it.  Mike Myslinski has to find a way to stay healthy if he ever wants to play football.  He never had the opportunity to compete with Jones for the center job because he just can’t stay on the field. 

The Defense

Phil Parker is the best defensive coordinator in college football and that’s just a fact.  His defense isn’t stacked with four- and five-star recruits like Georgia or Alabama and yet they are a dominant force.  Iowa lost two first-round NFL draft picks (Lukas Van Ness and Jack Campbell), and a long-time starting CB who was a third-rounder (Riley Moss), and I’m not sure they miss a beat.  Let’s have a look.

Defensive Line

Starters: DE Deontae Craig (Jr), DE Joe Evans (Sr), DT Logan Lee (Sr), DT Noah Shannon

Backups: DE Max Llewellyn (Soph), DE Ethan Hurkett (Jr), DT Yahya Black (Jr), DT Aaron Graves (Soph)

Depth: DT Anterio Thompson (Soph), DT Jeremiah Pittman (Soph), DE Chris Reames (Sr), DE Brian Allen (RS Fr)

This unit is frightening if you’re an opponent because they are potentially three deep at all positions, they could realistically play 12 or 13 players on the defensive line.  The second unit is arguably more talented at DT than the starters it’s just the starters are seniors and they are excellent too.  The team lost Lukas Van Ness at DE a year early to the NFL, he didn’t start a game at Iowa and this type of depth is why.  Now that Van Ness isn’t here to be the breakout star of the defensive line, I’m nominating Deontae Craig.  He tied for the team lead in sacks last year and he was nowhere near the lead in snaps played.  He’ll play more as a starter and he’s only getting better.  Joe Evans and Noah Shannon are returning for their sixth years using their Covid year to do so.  Evans isn’t the biggest guy but he’s a proven DE starter and he’s very steady.  Shannon is the undersized DT but with the depth inside they can put him situations where he can excel.  Logan Lee isn’t big either but he’s a rock inside.  

The good news for Shannon and Lee is that they don’t have to be the big guys inside because Yahya Black and Aaron Graves are power players on the inside.  The rotation of those four keeps them all fresh and Iowa added to that rotation.  Junior college transfer Anterio Thompson should find some playing time and Jeremiah Pittman took the opportunity this spring to stand out.  Lee and Shannon were out after surgeries for spring practice and Pittman showed he can handle playing.  That’s six DTs to play and that doesn’t include a guy like Jeff Bowie, a redshirt sophomore we haven’t seen do anything yet. 

At DE, Craig is the breakout star while Evans is the steady senior.  Behind them Ethan Hurkett and Max Llewellyn are looking to stay healthy and prove they are ready to be big contributors.  There’s also a chance Aaron Graves gets some time at DE just to get him on the field, he will be one giant DE.  Chris Reames is a senior who’s never really played but was mentioned by the coaches as a guy who looked good this spring, always have to cheer for a guy who has stuck it out this long without getting meaningful playing time.  Brian Allen was a highly touted prospect who redshirted last year, he should be itching to prove he deserves some snaps. 

This defensive line should scare the hell out of the Big Ten, the Next Man Up mantra might mean an even better player is stepping in for the guy going out.  This line should make the linebackers’ lives much easier too. 

Linebackers

Starters: Nick Jackson (Sr), Jay Higgins (Sr), Karson Sharar (Soph), CASH Sebastian Castro (Sr)

Backups: Kyler Fisher (Sr), Jaden Harrell (Soph), Zach Twedt (Soph)

Someone has to replace Jack Campbell and Seth Benson and that unenviable task falls to Nick Jackson and Jay Higgins.  Iowa will spend a lot of time playing only two LBs with Castro at the Cash position and it will mostly be Jackson and Higgins.  Jackson is a transfer who will step in immediately as the playmaker.  He was a tackling machine at Virginia and was an All-ACC player multiple years.  Higgins got playing time last year when Jestin Jacobs got hurt.  He didn’t play all the time because Jacobs was the third LB but it was valuable experience. 

Sharar is going to get that third LB role this year, he’ll play when the team goes away from the Cash lineup.  Castro stepped into the Cash position last year when Cooper DeJean had to move to CB after the injuries to Terry Roberts and Jermari Harris.  He played quite well there and got better as the season progressed.  With DeJean taking over as the top CB the Cash job is Castro’s. 

The backups really come down to Kyler Fisher, a senior with tons of special teams work and some LB snaps.  He’s the only guy who has actual playing time on defense.  As Iowa has used more two LB lineups it’s harder to get young guys on the field.  Harrell and Twedt are the next men up but there are some good young LBs on the team. 

Defensive Backs

Starters: CB Cooper DeJean (Jr), CB Jermari Harris (Sr), SS Xavier Nwankpa (Soph), FS Quinn Schulte (Sr)

Backups: CB TJ Hall (Soph), CB Deshaun Lee (RS Fr), SS Koen Entringer (RS Fr), FS Kael Kolarik (RS Fr)

It’s Cooper DeJean’s world and we’re all just living in it.  DeJean was the breakout player of last year and he’s only going to get better from here.  He’s one of the most versatile players in football, he plays CB, he can be the Cash, he could be an excellent safety, and he’s a devastating punt returner.  If Iowa hadn’t landed Kaleb Brown at WR I would have been begging for him to get some time on offense, instead I’ll just ask politely to give him a few plays a game on that side.  Jermari Harris missed last season with an injury which played a part in DeJean becoming a CB full-time, we can thank Harris for that later.  He had ended the 2021 season playing quite well and I expect him to be pretty good this year.  It’s never easy replacing a long-time starter like Riley Moss and DeJean and Harris will be a good CB pairing.   

Xavier Nwankpa is the outlier for the Hawkeyes, he actually was a five-star recruit and he looks like the real deal.  He didn’t start last year until the bowl game when he stepped in for Kaevon Merriweather but he didn’t miss a beat.  Nwankpa is a superstar in the making, especially being a safety under the tutelage of Phil Parker.  That much talent with Parker’s coaching, look out.  Quinn Schulte is another one of Parker’s creations.  He took a walk-on safety and turned him into a multi-year starter and team leader, I’ve heard that story before and it’s always great.  This defensive backfield will be excellent in the starting unit. 

The backups have talent but lack experience.  TJ Hall struggled last year when pressed in to duty against Nebraska as a true freshman, getting benched in that game.  He has talent, he needs time.  Deshaun Lee redshirted last year and he needs time too.  There’s a reason Iowa is looking for an experienced CB in the transfer portal.  Koen Entringer was a coaches’ favorite by the end of last season and he’s really the third safety.  Kael Kolarik is probably Phil Parker’s next great safety find.  I’m not going to doubt it.   

Final Thoughts

The Iowa defense will do what the Iowa defense does, it will dominate.  If the transfers on the offensive side of the ball can raise the play on that side, the team can be good.  If there are some changes to the offensive scheme to better utilize the new talent on offense, the team could be really good.  If they would have found a new offensive coordinator to bring Iowa’s offense into this decade, Iowa could be great.  We’ll have to settle for small steps.  The Big Ten West is going through some big changes with new coaches at Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Purdue.  Illinois has some major changes at QB, RB, and especially the secondary to deal with.  Minnesota is still coached by PJ Fleck so they will still struggle to win big games.  Northwestern was a tire fire last year and Fitz has his work cut out for him.  The last Big Ten West crown is there for Iowa’s taking.  The defense is good enough to win it, the offense just has to be good enough to not lose it.  25 points a game is Brian Ferentz’s benchmark to getting his contract renewed.  If he doesn’t get there, he should be fired, and his father should show enough respect to the program to do it himself.  I’m going to remain cautious in my optimism until I see how the offense comes together during training camp with the line getting healthy, Cade getting healthy, and the WR corps coming into form.  Also, where do I go to start the Phil Parker for the Broyles Award (college football’s Assistant of the Year award) campaign?  He’s long overdue. 

I have some thoughts to share about Day Two (aka rounds 2 &3) of the NFL draft. This is generally the day I like the best because you really see what teams are doing to improve their roster. This is where teams can really move the needle for their upcoming season. Round one gets all the hype but it’s tough for one player to really change the fortunes of a team, so here is where they get guys who can contribute early and really affect some change.

• The Pittsburgh Steelers are killing it so far. Somehow they got their new starting LT in round one and then came back in round two and got the CB they needed and wanted. Joey Porter Jr was popular 1st round guy for them and they get him at the top of round two. He starts day one opposite Patrick Peterson and the son of a Steelers great gets to try to become a Steelers great himself. Then they added Keeanu Benton, a big nose tackle from Wisconsin who fills a huge need and then somehow TE Darnell Washington inexplicably falls to round three and the Steelers continue to kill it in this draft. The AFC North is no joke.
• Tennessee stops Will Levis’ slide with the second pick in round two. They trade up and get the QB I thought they would trade up and get in round one. He could allow them to kick Ryan Tannehill to the curb but if his foot is the problem people are talking about, they can keep Tannehill around to let Levis work in slowly. BTW if you have a pack of gum you can trade for Malik Willis, clearly the Titans are over their third-round pick from last year. And now when Tannehill gets hurt they won’t have to start a street free agent they picked up an hour before the game.
• Nate Tice from the Athletic made the joke that Sam LaPorta was everyone’s second favorite TE, everyone had a different favorite TE in this class but everyone loved LaPorta as their second guy. Apparently he was right. LaPorta was the second TE off the board, ahead of Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft and Darnell Washington, to name a few. He goes to Detroit who clearly watched a lot of Iowa film this year and loved some Hawkeyes.
• Michael Mayer being the third TE off the board was surprise. The Raiders taking a TE was maybe a bit surprising after signing Austin Hooper and OJ Howard in the off season and having far bigger needs. Michael Mayer starting in week one and being way better than Hooper and Howard, won’t be surprising at all, he’s really good and Jimmy G is going to love him.
• The Rams first pick was G/C Steve Avila. Matthew Stafford says thank you. That o-line was mess last year.
• I was a little surprised Carolina took Jonathan Mingo with some of the WRs that were still left on the board, however, Mingo is a 6’2 power slot, that means he’s a big WR who plays inside. With DJ Chark and Adam Theilen outside they need a slot and a 6’2 guy will be easier for Bryce Young to see.
• I got two picks in the second round of my mock draft exactly correct, that never happens. At 42 the Packers took TE Luke Musgrave and at 43 the Jets took C Joe Tippmann, I can’t believe that actually happened. Two guys who fill huge needs for those two teams.
• Speaking of Luke Musgrave, he wasn’t the only pass catcher the Packers took on day two. They also took WR Jayden Reed from Michigan St and TE Tucker Kraft from South Dakota St. Reed will complement Watson and Doubs and Kraft was incredible value in round three. Their TE depth chart was pretty ugly, now it’s really good. They gave Jordan Love some real help at the skill positions.
• The Colts took CB Julius Brents from Kansas St. I’m cheering for him, he’s a former Hawkeye who transferred and actually was good somewhere else (that’s rare, usually the guys who transfer out of Iowa don’t do much). Anyway, GM Chris Ballard likes big people and he just got a 6’3 CB who will start for them day one.
• The Lions have a type. They don’t care about measurable or position value, they want high character, tough football players. They took Brian Branch, a guy who is way better than his measurables. He isn’t big, he isn’t fast, but he’s a stud. He’s the only guy who was invited to round one of the draft, didn’t get drafted night one, and came back on night two so he could walk on stage and have his draft moment. He wasn’t embarrassed, he wasn’t mad, he was genuinely appreciative of the moment. He joins a strangely crowded secondary in Detroit but I’m cheering for this kid. It’s weird, I’m going to have to actually like the Lions this year.
• For the first time in a long time I’m actually loving the Patriots draft. The Christian Gonzalez pick in round one was truly awesome. Then in round two DE Keion White from Georgia Tech fell to the Patriots. I wasn’t a fan of White as a first round guy but as a second round pick, he’s a steal. He can play the edge, kick inside if needed, and gives the Pats the the youth and versatility up front they need. Then in round three they took a flyer on a guy coming off an injury, LB/S Marte Mapu. They announced him as a LB and I hope they play him there. He’s undersized but he’s fast and can cover, the Patriots need faster LBs who can cover, I’m glad to see Belichick realize that.
• Everyone came into the draft thinking the Commanders needed help in the secondary, they drafted CB Emmanuel Forbes in round one and S Jartavius “Quan” Martin in round two, clearly they agreed. C Ricky Stromberg in round three is a good pickup too, they need help at interior o-line.
• Cody Mauch should start at RG immediately in Tampa Bay. Mauch and Ryan Jenson starting next to each other would be awesome, they have to be long-lost brothers.
• Dolphins took CB Cam Smith, is Xavien Howard headed for the exit? Vic Fangio and Jalen Ramsey need to teach Cam Smith how to cover without holding and Ramsey should convince him that tackling is fun, then Smith will be an excellent player. And of course Miami got Devon Achane. The dude with Olympic-level speed goes to the team with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert.
• The Seahawks took a big RB, Zach Charbonnet, I can’t believe I didn’t have that in my mock draft. That’s like a four inch putt and I missed it.
• The Bears drafted three defenders on day two. In round two they took a big swing on DT Gervon Dexter, then grabbed CB Tyrique Stevenson. In round three they went back to DT and took Zacch Pickens. Dexter is big dude and has flash plays that make you think he’s Jalen Carter, then he disappears for half the game. He needs to give consistent effort or he’ll be playing in the XFL in three years. Pickens is the guy who does give consistent effort, he just lacks Dexter’s physical gifts. The Bears needed bodies inside, they took one guy they can count on and one guy they hope is a superstar. I’m not a Stevenson fan and I’m really not a Stevenson in round two fan. He has lapses in coverage and misses too many tackles. There are CBs still on the board I like better than him. He has great physical tools but he doesn’t use them to do the things you need him to do. Not a fan of round two for the Bears.
• I’ll generally give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt but Rashee Rice at WR in round two? I like a lot of guys who went after him a lot more. Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, and some guys still on the board. He’ll be fine with Mahomes throwing to him but give me Tillman or Hyatt, that would be fun. Also, a little surprised on Wayna Morris being their OT pick in round three. Dawand Jones and Jaelyn Duncan both available and Morris is injured. Not sure he’s helping anytime soon.
• The Giants took C John Michael Schmitz in round two. I had him going there in round one, I missed it by a round but he’s starting at center immediately. Really good pick. They also took Jalin Hyatt in round three. He gives them the deep threat they have wanted to complement all of their underneath guys. Hyatt is basically the upgraded version of Darius Slayton, a guy they have wanted to be better than he is.
• The Cowboys took a TE, not the one anyone thought but Luke Schoonmaker is basically Dalton Schultz 2.0.
• Houston picked 2nd and 3rd and then had to wait until pick 62. They got a new starting center, Juice Scruggs, I did not make up that name. He’s a perfect fit for their new offense and he starts day one. Then they drafted WR Tank Dell at 69. “Tank” is a funny nickname for a guy 5’8 165 lbs. He’s really small but he’s fast and he can make plays. CJ Stroud will love these guys.
• Sean Payton traded up into the end of round two to take WR Marvin Mims. Hey Patriots, call Sean and see what he wants for Jerry Jeudy, it can’t be that much, he just replaced him. Then Payton got a steal in round three with LB Drew Sanders. At one point Sanders looked like a top 15 pick, he went 67th overall. He’s a good player but they really have to take advantage of his pass rush ability to make the most of him. They finish off their day two with Iowa CB Riley Moss, what a great situation to walk into. Patrick Surtain II is one of the best CBs in the NFL already but the Broncos don’t have much on the outside opposite him. Damarri Mathis was a fourth round pick last year (not a Sean Payton pick). Moss is going to have a shot to play and maybe start in Denver, it’s trial by fire if you start opposite Surtain, no one throws his way. Moss won’t back down from the challenge.
• At 68 the Lions moved up to take Hendon Hooker. This is where Hooker needed to go, not just to Detroit but in the third round. He’s 25, coming off an ACL tear and he will need time to adjust to an NFL offense. Jared Goff has this job locked down this year. Hooker doesn’t have to rush back from his knee injury, he can get great coaching from Ben Johnson to understand an NFL offense and then they can see where he is. Also, it’s not like they can’t pivot from him if they don’t think he’s the guy, it’s a third round pick, the Titans just did it with Malik Willis after a year.
• The Browns took WR Cedric Tillman in round three. This is a steal and if Deshaun Watson can get his career back on track, he has the weapons around him. Tillman is a true X WR and that means Amari Cooper can play the Z where he can move all over the place like he should. It also means Donovan Peoples-Jones can move down the depth chart because Tillman is a legit downfield threat, not a pretend one. If Elijah Moore becomes the slot receiver he should be, wow is this WR so much better. Peoples-Jones and David Bell as the 4th and 5th guys? Really good.
• The Colts got WR Josh Downs, the perfect inside complement to Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce outside. Sorry Isaiah McKenzie, you may have been replaced before you even get started in Indy.
• San Francisco with a confounding draft. Penn St. DB Ji’Ayir Brown was a solid choice for team that lost Jimmy Ward and Emmanuel Moseley in the secondary, he adds nice depth and playmaking, then it goes off the rails. K Jake Moody might be the best kicker in the draft but with pick 99? Really? Then they took Alabama TE Cameron Latu, there were better TEs on the board. Strange draft for them.
• The Jaguars second day was a little off. TE Brenton Strange wasn’t my favorite TE on the board when they took him but I can see the fit with Evan Engram a little. RB Tank Bigsby in round three, yikes, I’m not a fan. There are plenty of RBs I like better and I would have actually taken someone who could make more of a difference for you. The Jaguars can compete in the AFC with a little help, OT Anton Harrison in round one was a good choice. but they could have had some more help with better players on day two. They could have had a big WR like Cedric Tillman in round two or taken a CB like Riley Moss or Kelee Ringo in round three. RB could wait.
• There are some guys I’m truly surprised made it to day three. Northwestern DL Adetomiwu Adebawore isn’t my favorite guy but he’s really athletic and productive, someone is getting a good player on day three. Kelee Ringo needs discipline on the field but he’s a freaky athlete who could be a top CB or move to safety, I would gladly take that risk early on day three. OT Blake Freeland, OT Jaelyn Duncan, OG Nick Saldiveri are big guys who need some time but I would be glad to have them as third day developmental offensive linemen. RT Dawand Jones isn’t even a guy you have to develop all that much, he may not have any positional flexibility but he can start at RT right away. S Antonio Johnson, CB Clark Phillips III, and CB Darius Rush are all guys who have starting potential early in their NFL careers. Phillips is a slot corner only but he’ll be great at it.
• I have my fingers crossed for S Kaevon Merriweather from Iowa, I think he gets drafted late but he’s going to make a team as backup safety and special teams guy and eventually he’ll start for someone. Iowa defensive coordinator/defensive backs coach Phil Parker is the best in the business and his guys are smart and well coached. Merriweather is just the latest in a long line of solid defensive backs from Iowa who stick around the NFL for quite a long time.

I’ll be reacting to the NFL draft live, right here as it happens. Here we go!

Congrats to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens for finally figuring out what we all knew they were going to do. And to Aaron Rodgers, remember, you’re with the Jets now, feel free to be terrible.

Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young QB Alabama

I’m not sold on Bryce Young as a long-term starter, his size is going to be an issue eventually. I think of RGIII and how his career started really well and then he got beat up and it ended quickly as a starter. Good luck Bryce, at least Carolina has a nice offensive line for him.

Houston Texans – CJ Stroud QB Ohio St

Well, there goes all that overthinking. Stroud is good, Stroud is a huge upgrade, sorry Davis Mills. Time to finally move that franchise forward.

So I missed on the teams switching spots but I got the first two picks right. Now here comes Arizona, at least it’s not Steve Keim screwing up this pick for them.

Houston – Will Anderson Jr. Edge Alabama

Wow Houston. Well done. Using the extra draft capital from the Watson trade and getting two of the top three picks. Anderson is a stud. DeMeco Ryans is going to love coaching Will Anderson. Their defense needed this guy. He sets the tone.

Smart move by the Cardinals. They just gave themselves more capital and an extra 1st round pick next year so they can go after a QB to replace Kyler Murray after this season. Their new GM Monti Ossenfort is already doing better than Keim ever did.

Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson QB Florida

I really don’t think Richardson is good enough right now to be the 4th pick but the Colts are taking a shot. He’s a physical freak and Shane Steichen can mold him. He can create an offense for him that will work right now.

I’m 4 for 4 in my mock on the players but I’m only 1 for 4 on the teams. I’ll take it. Here’s where things go off the rails.

Seattle Seahawks – Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois

Yep. John and Pete hate me and went with Witherspoon. They generally don’t draft CBs this early but they have to love his attitude and temperament. He can play and he’ll be deadly opposite Tariq Woolen and lets Coby Bryant play in the slot.

Arizona Cardinals – Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio St

Making a trade back up, bold. Taking Paris Johnson, not so bold, but smart. Their offensive line is not great and their OTs are both over 30. He can block for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye after next year.

Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech

This is the first of the replacements for all the Gruden/Mayock draft misses. Wilson replaces Clelin Ferrell. He could start if they cut or trade Chandler Jones. Wilson is huge and would look good opposite Maxx Crosby. Solid choice. I would have taken Gonzalez or an offensive lineman but Wilson is solid value.

Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson RB Texas

Holy crap. A top 10 RB. Robinson was the second best player in the draft for me (Jalen Carter was my #1). Robinson seriously upgrades the position for the Falcons, now Arthur Smith has to unlock Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Robinson. Big move for the Falcons.

Philadelphia Eagles – Jalen Carter DT Georgia

Trade up. Eagles wanted Carter bad enough to move up a pick. He is a special talent and going to Philly with his former teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean there is great for him. He needs to prove he can be a good guy, he needs to mature as a person. He’s a great player on the field, get him straight off the field, the sky is the limit.

Chicago Bears – Darnell Wright OT Tennessee

There’s the new RT for the Bears. Braxton Jones stays at LT and Wright becomes the starting RT right away. I had him in my mock draft to Chicago, he fits. He’s a huge dude who can move. No more Larry Borom, Teven Jenkins, this guy, that guy, it’s Wright, it’s his job. It’s not a sexy pick but he makes Justin Fields better, he makes the running game better, he solidifies the line.

Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski OL Northwestern

Skoronski could start at any of the five spots on the line and be an upgrade for the Titans. Good pick up

Detroit Lions – Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama

Holy shit Lions. Gibbs is a stud and I have to assume this means they are going to move D’Andre Swift. Swift can’t stay healthy and Gibbs can complement David Montgomery. This is truly shocking this high but Detroit traded down and picked up extra picks so they are reaching here. Here’s the first truly holy shit moment.

Please, please, please Green Bay, don’t take Gonzalez, they shouldn’t but please leave him for New England.

Green Bay Packers – Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa

There he is. Go Hawks. Van Ness has plenty of physical gifts and he needs some refinement. He has enormous potential.

Damn it Belichick, just take Gonzalez

Pittsburgh Steelers – Broderick Jones OT Georgia

Jones was my favorite OT, I wish the Patriots didn’t have 6 middling OTs and they would have taken him. Jones is light years ahead of Dan Moore, he makes the offensive line way better.

New York Jets – Will McDonald IV Edge Iowa St.

There’s the second holy shit pick. Great athlete with a deadly spin move but it’s his only move too. This is a reach. I love a Cyclone going to the Jets, I can just feel fine continuing to hate him. He and Breece Hall, Cyclones to the Jets, yep, can’t stand them. They panicked after the Steelers moved up to get the last good tackle, New England made that trade just to screw the Jets over? Now I don’t hate it so much.

Washington Commanders – Emmanuel Forbes CB Miss St.

Yikes. The Commanders need CBs but Forbes is 166 lbs. Really surprised he went a head of Christian Gonzalez and Joey Porter Jr. He can get his hands on the ball but someone might break him in half. He can cover Davonta Smith but if he has to line up against AJ Brown, good luck.

New England Patriots – Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon

Wooohooo!!! The Patriots got the guy. He’s a bigger CB they need and the trade down worked out because the Jets and Commanders screwed up. Belichick got lucky but that works some times. No WR and my favorite CB, awesome.

I’ve been thinking about this for a few minutes since Detroit’s first pick. The Patriots need a complement to Rhamondre Stevenson and the D’Andre Swift would be an excellent guy to do that and be the James White replacement they haven’t found. Belichick, call up Brad Holmes and make it happen.

Detroit Lions – Jack Campbell LB Iowa

Wow, just wow. I didn’t think he was going in round one and he goes 18th? This is a huge need for them and he fits with Malcolm Rodriguez, who is a small LB, Jack is a big dude. They will love him. Their fans will love him. He will set a tone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh

This draft is drunk. Kancey is so small, short arms, this is a reach. How did they pass on Levis with only Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at QB. Teams must really hate Levis, it’s weird. Kancey is a subpackage pass rusher, that’s it.

Seattle Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio St.

Gee, I wonder if he can beat out Dwayne Eskridge at slot receiver? Oh wait, he just did. He’s the slot guy, getting a hell of a lot balls thrown his way with Lockett and Metcalf taking all the real coverage. He’s amazing in the slot, could be the offensive rookie of the year.

Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston WR TCU

I like other WRs better and I like other WRs better for what they need. Johnston can play but he plays a very specific way. He is really good yards after the catch (YAC). They need guys who can make plays but I would have really liked a true deep threat. He can develop into something more but they have to use him right. Your move Kellen Moore.

Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers WR Boston College

Hey, Lamar gets a new contract and actual WRs to play with. Odell Beckham Jr, Nelson Agholor, Rashod Bateman, and now Zay Flowers in the slot. That’s the best WR group Lamar has ever had in his professional career. Zay is a playmaker, I guess it won’t be Mark Andrews, Mark Andrews and more Mark Andrews.

If the Vikings don’t take Will Levis he’s falling into the second round unless someone comes back into the end of round one for him. Maybe, maybe the Saints think he’s too good to pass on with Derek Carr’s contract not that long.

Minnesota Vikings – Jordan Addison WR USC

So it’s the WR portion of the draft. Addison is a good WR, he’s a bit light but he only has to be the second guy with Justin Jefferson as the true #1 WR. The Levis tumble continues. Addison can be a playmaker.

New York Giants – Deonte Banks CB Maryland

Well, they needed a CB with size. Banks has size and he’s a really good athlete. He can start on the outside right away opposite Adoree’ Jackson if Jackson sticks around.

Buffalo Bills – Dalton Kincaid TE Utah

They wanted to get another weapon for Josh Allen, Kincaid is a really impressive offensive player. He can improve their offense by giving them another dimension.

Dallas Cowboys – Mazi Smith DT Michigan

Here’s another surprise. Smith is a nose tackle and this isn’t where I thought they were going. Smith is a plugger, he’s a rugged run stuffer in the middle who can wreck an offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma

The Jaguars make a smart play here. Cam Robinson is suspended for PEDs to start the year and Harrison could replace him now and for the future. Harrison is an athletic guy who just needs some more reps to get better. The Chiefs might be disappointed here, they may have to change their plans.

Cincinnati Bengals – Myles Murphy DE Clemson

He fell a lot farther than many thought, including me, but he is a guy who needs some development. He doesn’t finish his pass rushes with sacks as much as you might like. Talented guy, not a big producer.

New Orleans Saints – Bryan Bresee DT Clemson

Hey, I got this one right. He fills a huge hole for them. He’s good, he might be great if he isn’t dealing with all the personal issues he had last year with his sick sister passing away. Good for him, you have to root for this guy.

Philadelphia Eagles – Nolan Smith LB Georgia

The Eagles are just drafting Georgia’s defense from 2021. They have four Georgia defenders. I’m marking it down now, CB Kelee Ringo in round two.

There are going to be some good players in Round 2…tomorrow should be fun.

Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas St.

They need an edge rusher who really gets around the edge. This might be slightly high but he fills a huge need and he will play a lot for him.

Thanks for hanging around all night. This was as crazy as I thought it would be. Two Hawkeyes in round one is always great. Tomorrow, Will Levis, Hendon Hooker, Brian Branch, Michael Mayer, all tomorrow night. Love the draft, good night.

2023 NFL Mock Draft-Final One 2.0

So, I had this mock draft all done, all I had to do was finish the editing and post it.  Then the Jets and Packers decided to get their shit together and actually make the Rodgers trade.  I had a trade in mind for it but the Jets gave up WAY more than I thought they would for Rodgers.  So here is my Final Mock Draft…the 2.0 version of the final draft. 

I really don’t like this draft class.  It’s full of outliers who are really small like Bryce Young at QB, Nolan Smith as an edge rusher, almost all of the WRs, safety/nickel corner Brian Branch and Peter Skoronski’s arms.  Or guys who are simply limited where they play; Darnell Wright and Dawand Jones are right tackles only, the LB group isn’t overly versatile outside maybe Drew Sanders and the WRs are mostly slot guys (yes, that’s two shots at the WR class).  There are also positions that are limited; the defensive tackle group is Jalen Carter and not much else towards the top, the safety group is Brian Branch and then wait until round three if you’re smart, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are difference makers at RB but then there’s a group of about 5-7 guys you could choose from.  There are four QBs, Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, and CBs Christian Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon, that teams might actually want to draft, after those eight no one really inspires confidence (and confidence in Anthony Richardson and Will Levis at QB could be problematic). 

The general consensus right now is that the Carolina Panthers are settling in on Bryce Young at #1 overall, I just can’t get there.  I smell a smoke screen.  I think they are hyping up their interest in Young to get Houston to make an offer to move up from #2 to #1 and so far, Houston isn’t biting.  I’m sure they don’t believe Carolina right now either.  It gets weird if Young goes first and Houston passes on a QB at #2 so I have a solution for that, let’s get to it. 

(Just a quick note, I went a little trade crazy with this mock, it just seemed to make more sense that way.)

1. Houston Texans (TRADE with Carolina): Bryce Young     QB     Alabama

Houston bites the bullet and Carolina doesn’t get overly greedy and they find a solution where Houston gives up a less than premium pick to move up one spot and Carolina will still get their QB at #2.  The Texans are said to be sold on Young and Young alone at QB and considering the culture change they are trying to pull off, that’s understandable.  Young is a great teammate and he has talent but I struggle with taking him as my franchise QB.  His size scares me, not that he can’t play at his size but that he just won’t last.  If you take a QB at #1 you want him to be your guy for 10-12 years at least, I’m not sure Young sees year six.  Smaller QBs are outliers and Young is the smallest of the small.  The NFL protects QBs as much as possible but they still get hit and the hits will add up faster on him than on others.  If he helps DeMeco Ryans set a new culture in Houston moving forward, then maybe he’s worth it even if they are looking for a new QB in five years.  It feels awfully risky.

2. Carolina Panthers (TRADE with Houston):  CJ Stroud     QB     Ohio St.

I may be completely wrong and Carolina may actually love Young so much they just take him first but he just doesn’t feel like a Frank Reich type of QB.  On the other hand, Stroud is straight off the Reich assembly line.  He’s a big, strong pocket passer with elite throwing mechanics and impeccable accuracy.  Putting him in Carolina behind and pretty solid offensive line with some veteran WRs like Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, Stroud could do some damage.  He has mobility no one seems to want to give him credit for and he can adjust his game to do what is necessary.  Everyone points to the Georgia game where he showed off his running ability but also watch the Northwestern game last year when they were playing against 70 mph winds all day.  He made the offense work when throwing the ball was almost impossible.  I think Stroud would be very good, very quickly in Carolina and that is what the owner wants. 

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Will Anderson     Edge     Alabama

The Cardinals should be fielding every call waiting for the best offer from a team looking to move up for a QB.  They need players, many, many new players.  They are essentially going to punt this season because Kyler Murray will not play for a lot of it coming off a torn ACL.  If they can’t get a solid package of picks, taking Will Anderson is a good consolation prize.  They desperately need an edge rusher and Anderson is the best in the draft.  New head coach Jonathan Gannon is coming over from Philly where he had Hassan Reddick.  Reddick isn’t a traditional DE or a traditional pass rushing OLB.  Anderson can fit a similar profile, Gannon can find the most effective ways to use him, and he’s would be a foundational piece to build the defense around. 

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1):  Anthony Richardson     QB     Florida

This draft is a crapshoot and if the Colts don’t make a major move for Lamar Jackson before the draft, then the likelihood is they will draft a QB.  Richardson isn’t a total project but he’s got some work to do.  He gets what he’s supposed to do with the football he just can’t always pull it off.  New Colts coach Shane Steichen had Jalen Hurts for the last two years and he made him a much better passer and Philly got to the Super Bowl.  Richardson wouldn’t have AJ Brown and Devonta Smith to throw to but Michael Pittman Jr is a solid start at WR and with a new coach and Richardson, the expectations for the Colts would be low.  Richardson should be able to make an offense effective simply by being a great athlete, if Steichen can harness all his potential, he can be an elite QB in the NFL. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver):  Jalen Carter     DT     Georgia

The character concerns with Carter are the only thing that could stop him from being a top five pick.  He’s simply too good of a player and a unique talent to drop unless teams think he can’t mature and become a better version of himself.  The criminal case against him from a fatal auto accident earlier this year has been settled with a plea bargain and he faces no jail time.  If he has convinced teams it was an isolated incident, that he sincerely regrets his actions, and it won’t happen again, he’s fine, if not, he could tumble down the board.  Carter is far and away the best DT in this draft and he has the scheme versatility to fit any style.  The Seahawks could really remake their d-line with Carter and free agent Dre’Mont Jones up front.  I don’t think Pete Carroll and John Schneider will be scared off by Carter’s issues, they will take the chance on him. 

6. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams):  Christian Gonzalez     CB     Oregon

The Lions are in a great position here because they can go in a lot of directions but they don’t have to fill any specific needs.  This pick is from the Matthew Stafford trade and they can get a real difference maker here.  Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon are the top two CBs and while it has been said that the Lions like Witherspoon a lot, I have Gonzalez here.  The Lions signed Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton in free agency and they also have Jerry Jacobs at CB and one thing those guys all have in common, they are under 6’0 tall.  Witherspoon measured in at 6’0 exactly but he’s under 190 lbs. which makes him a very slim CB.  Gonzalez is 6’2 and has size, length, and athleticism and I think the Lions would be better off supplementing their shorter CBs with a guy who can matchup with some of the bigger, taller WRs in the league. 

7. Tennessee Titans (TRADE with Las Vegas):  Will Levis     QB     Kentucky

The Raiders could take Levis if they really like him but Josh McDaniels knows he has to win now and a first-round QB isn’t helping that cause.  McDaniels is going to war with Jimmy G at QB and he needs multiple picks to help fix his o-line and defense, he trades down and gets extra picks.  The Titans have Ryan Tannehill making a boatload of money and they could save half of his salary off the cap by cutting him.  They can reset their cap and their timetable with a rookie QB and Levis might be just the guy to convince Mike Vrabel to go with a rookie QB.  Vrabel is an old-school football guy and Levis is the same type.  Tennessee needs a reset and Levis could be the key.  If they drop Tannehill, they could also drop Derrick Henry and really reset or they can afford to keep Henry for the year and let him carry the offense while the rookie QB figures it out.  They may be some other teams looking to trade up here but Tennessee would give them a solid return and the Raiders would only have to drop down to 11^th overall, they still get a good player.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Tyree Wilson     DE     Texas Tech

The Falcons need help on the front line which is why they signed Calais Campbell and David Onyemata.  However, Campbell will be 37 next season and Onyemata is 30.  Grady Jarrett, their best holdover up front will also be 30 and their backups leave a lot to be desired.  Wilson is a long, angular pass rusher with size and leverage and the versatility to play multiple fronts which makes he a great match with these guys.  He can spend the year learning from Campbell and Jarrett on the outside and being a subpackage guy and eventually take over as a starter.  He can learn a lot from those two and give them the rest they need as a rotational guy so they stay fresh.  The Falcons have addressed other needs like the secondary with the Jeff Okudah trade and signing Jessie Bates III.  They signed LBs like Kaden Ellis and Bud Dupree but they still need help up front if they want their defense to be better, and they need their defense to be better.  This is also the first spot where RB Bijan Robinson becomes an actual possibility, they could use a playmaker at RB, Robinson is a stud. 

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (TRADE with Chicago): Paris Johnson Jr.    OT    Ohio St.

 It may seem strange for the Bears to trade out of this spot to allow the Steelers to move up and take an OT the Bears could use but the Steelers need help on the offensive line if they want to protect Kenny Pickett and give him any chance to succeed at QB.  Dan Moore just isn’t cutting it and while they have spent money on interior offensive linemen in free agency the last couple of years, they are still pretty bad at OT.  Johnson is generally considered the top LT prospect in the draft, but there is no actual consensus.  I don’t think Johnson is going to be some regular Pro Bowl type of player, but he’s a legitimate NFL starter for the next decade and that puts him light years ahead of what they have now.  The Bears may try to extract a premium pick for moving down so far.    

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans):  Lukas Van Ness     DL     Iowa

The Eagles have one of the better rosters in the league but they have some aging players and GM Howie Roseman loves linemen.  He could take an OT to hedge against Lane Johnson’s age but the defensive line is a more pressing need.  Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are aging players and Derek Barnett is coming off an ACL injury.  Josh Sweat could use some help off the edge and Van Ness can be that guy without the pressure of having to be the guy.  Van Ness can also play inside with Cox on passing downs or give him some rest and play next to Jordan Davis on running downs.  Van Ness needs to learn some pass rushing moves and the Eagles have the veterans and coaching to get the best out of him. 

11. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Tennessee):  Devon Witherspoon     CB     Illinois

The Raiders have to fix the right side of their offensive line and they have to fix their secondary.  If they move down and still end up getting Witherspoon here, that’s a gigantic win.  In a division that has Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Sean Payton (see what I did there), they have to get better on the back end.  Witherspoon has a shot to be a top 10 pick but I’m just not finding a spot for him.  It’s completely possible he goes to Detroit at six and Gonzalez falls here.  Witherspoon isn’t the biggest CB out there but don’t tell him that.  He plays with the recklessness and intensity of a guy 20 lbs. bigger.  He can set the tone for the Raiders underwhelming secondary, they could use some of that. 

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Myles Murphy      DE      Clemson

Their edge players are a little rough at the moment, Jerry Hughes will be 35 next season, Jonathan Greenard missed half of last year with an injury, and they signed Chase Winovich in free agency, he has 12 whole sacks in his four-year career.  Murphy isn’t a finished product, he’s only 21 years old, but he’s 6’5 270 lbs. and a really good athlete.  He needs to work on finishing his pass rush and getting the QB down but that is something Jerry Hughes has been good at for a long time and he could teach him a few things.  The Texans aren’t looking to be great next season, they just want to take a step forward, they can wait for Murphy to get better.

13. Green Bay Packers (from NY Jets):  Jaxon Smith-Njigba     WR     Ohio St.

It would be fitting for the Packers to finally trade Aaron Rodgers and then promptly draft a WR in round one.  One has nothing to do with the other except for the fact that without Rodgers to elevate the play of the WRs on the team, the Packers need better WRs to elevate Jordan Love at QB.  Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are a solid duo on the outside but this team needs a legit slot receiver who can make Love’s job easier.  Smith-Njigba is almost exclusively a slot guy and that’s fine because he’s excellent at it.  He has the change of direction skills and route running mastery to be a devastating inside receiver.  Smith-Njigba doesn’t win on the outside because he lacks speed and he’s not an overwhelming athlete, but he gets how to set his defender up and roast him inside.  The Packers could take a TE here but Smith-Njigba is the best WR in this draft and he’s too perfect of a fit for what they need. 

 14. New England Patriots (8-9):  Deonte Banks     CB     Maryland

My sincere hope is that the Patriots don’t draft a WR here, I just don’t like anyone outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and he’s gone and they don’t need another slot receiver who can’t help them outside anyway.  Also, Belichick is a WR jinx, if he drafts Quentin Johnston I’ll throw up.   I would love for them to draft Broderick Jones at OT, he’s my favorite OT in the draft.  However, they have Trent Brown, they re-signed Yodny Cajuste and Conor McDermott, and brought in Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson, that’s a lot of bodies at tackle.  At CB, they re-signed Jonathan Jones to a two-year deal but he’s going to be 30.  They drafted Marcus Jones and Jack Jones last year and Jack is already in Belichick’s doghouse.  Marcus should replace Myles Bryant as the nickel corner after Bryant had a rough year.  Also, all of these guys are short, smaller CBs.  Banks is 6’1 and over 200 lbs. so he would give them a bigger CB to match up on some of the bigger WRs in the league.  He has scheme versatility so he can play however the Patriots want to line up in coverage.  He would allow Jonathan Jones to take on the smaller, shiftier WRs and not have to be the CB1.  Banks has been moving up the board after missing a lot of last season with an injury. 

15. New York Jets (from Green Bay):  Broderick Jones     OT     Georgia

The Jets move down two spots but finally get their QB in Aaron Rodgers.  They picked up some pieces at WR to go with Garrett Wilson (Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb should be along shortly).  If they want Rodgers at his best, they need to give him better protection up front and it’s hard to rely on Mekhi Becton and Duane Brown.  Becton has been injury prone and Brown is 38 years old.  Broderick Jones has started for Georgia’s back-to-back national championship teams, and while he’s still a little raw, he’s got everything you want in a LT.  He is probably the most physically gifted tackle in this draft and this one hurts me because he’s my favorite tackle and I wish the Patriots would draft him, instead he goes to their hated rival. 

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1):  Joey Porter Jr.     CB     Penn St.

The Commanders are on their way to a total reset as they are in the process of being sold.  Once Josh Harris and his group take charge things could change dramatically.  The franchise needs new blood and that could mean a new GM, head coach, and almost certainly a new QB, but that won’t happen in 2023 so here we go.  This team has players to build around; a really good d-line, some new blood on the offensive line, a good WR group, and a good RB.  They aren’t in a position to get a new QB so it’s Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett this year.  One place they have to address for this year and moving forward is CB.  Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste, and Cam Dantzler aren’t scaring anyone.  Porter Jr is the son of former Steelers great Joey Porter and he is a big, physical CB, with long arms and bloodlines to play in the NFL for a long time.  This defense could be good if they get better play in the secondary and Porter gets them moving in that direction.

17. Chicago Bears (TRADE with Pittsburgh):  Darnell Wright     OT     Tennessee

The Bears drafted Braxton Jones last year and gave him the LT spot, he had his issues, but he showed enough that I think they stick with him on the left side.  They have options at RT, Teven Jenkins, Larry Borom, and even Alex Leatherwood, but none of them have proven to be great options.  Wright is seen as a RT only prospect but he’s going to be a hell of a RT.  He’s big, powerful, and he would lock down the position for the next 7-10 years at a high level.  Fixing the o-line should be a priority and Wright would do that as he would allow Jenkins and Borom to compete at OG or become trade bait.  If the Bears aren’t convinced Braxton Jones is truly a LT and want to move him to the right side, they could draft Peter Skoronski and let him try to win the LT job instead. 

18. Detroit Lions (9-8):  Michael Mayer     TE     Notre Dame

The Lions got their CB with the sixth pick, now they fill the only real hole on the offense (unless you count QB, and they don’t count QB).  They traded TJ Hockenson last year because they didn’t want to have to pay him next year as a free agent.  Dan Campbell is the type of coach to like a guy who isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty and that’s Mayer.  Dalton Kincaid is the more productive pass catcher but Mayer is the all-around guy.  He can run routes and he’s a contested catch monster, but he’s also not afraid to stick his nose in for a block.  He’s not the devastating blocker some would have you believe (despite the nickname, he’s not baby Gronk), but he is a functional and willing blocker.  He can be a major red zone weapon for Jared Goff and he would complement Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, just as soon as Williams gets back from his gambling suspension.  Mayer feels like a Dan Campbell player.

19. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE with Tampa Bay):   Bijan Robinson     RB     Texas

Trading up for a RB seems like a weird thing to do but the Chargers are in a unique position.  The team is built to compete now; however, Austin Ekeler (their most effective playmaker) wants a new contract but they don’t want to pay him.  They have a gigantic Justin Herbert extension on the horizon and paying a RB would not be wise.  Robinson is the ultimate Ekeler replacement.  He’s the all-everything back Ekeler is except he’s bigger and more athletic.  The Chargers pay the price in draft capital to move up a few spots because other teams may be ready to pounce if they don’t.  There is a lot of talk in the NFL about resetting your QB spot with a rookie QB contract and while the savings isn’t as much, paying a rookie RB at this spot is a whole lot cheaper than paying Ekeler his market value.  Robinson is the total package at RB and he would be a fantastic addition as Herbert’s backfield partner for the next five years. 

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE with Seattle):  Dalton Kincaid     TE      Utah

The Jaguars have Evan Engram at TE but he’s the only real TE they have and he’s on a one-year deal.  Also, their WR group has quite a few small guys and the only taller WR is Zay Jones and he doesn’t play like a big guy.  Engram could be even more deadly if he had a two-TE set with Dalton Kincaid as the other TE.  Kincaid is really just a big WR, he’s not a blocker, he’s a pass catcher.  He can line up at different positions inside or out and he would be a deadly weapon down the seam for Trevor Lawrence.  Adding him to Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram would give Lawrence a real chance to shine.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TRADE with LA Chargers):  Peter Skoronski     OT     Northwestern

The Buccaneers cut Donovan Smith for salary cap purposes and now they are need of another tackle.  The thought has been that they might move RT Tristan Wirfs to LT and find a new guy on the right side.  If Skoronski is still here, they could draft him and see where he works best for them.  He could compete at LT or he could end up being a good guard replacement after they traded Shaq Mason in the off season.  Either way, Skoronski is an immediate starter somewhere (it could even be RT with Wirfs still moving to the left side) and he’s great value here.  The Buccaneers are in a weird place, they have Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at QB but they aren’t in a position to get a replacement.  Taking Hendon Hooker is possible but it seems unlikely. 

22. Baltimore Ravens (10-7):  Nolan Smith     OLB     Georgia

Assuming the Ravens get the Lamar Jackson situation handled they can move forward trying to be a contender in the AFC.  They are trying to address their WR situation with signing Odell Beckham Jr and Nelson Agholor to go with a healthy Rashod Bateman, that’s the best WR corps they have had in Jackson’s career.  On the defensive side of the ball, they have lost several edge players; Calais Campbell, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Justin Houston.  All of those guys are aging so it makes sense to pivot.  Nolan Smith is a very athletic edge player they can use in a lot of different ways and he gives them some extra pass rushing to go with Tyus Bowser, Odafe Oweh and they hope David Ojabo. If one of the top CBs falls here, they should jump on them but for now they can wait until day two to grab a CB. 

23. Minnesota Vikings (13-4):  Drew Sanders      LB      Arkansas

Generally, it seems like the Vikings need a CB or a WR here but I just don’t see the value here.  They don’t need a small WR who plays the slot, they already have KJ Osborn, Jalen Reagor, and Justin Jefferson can play inside too.  Quentin Johnston doesn’t feel like the big WR fit here.  They can wait on CB because the value is in rounds 2-4.  Drew Sanders played LB at Arkansas last year after being an edge rusher at Alabama previously.  That makes for an interesting set of skills in a guy who is 6’5 235 lbs. and very athletic.  That’s exactly the type of guy I think new defensive coordinator Brian Flores would love to work with.  Flores came up under Bill Belichick who loves big LBs who do a lot of different things in their defense.  Sanders could step in immediately at ILB and be used in a pass rusher role when appropriate. 

24. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE with Jacksonville):  Steve Avila     C/G     TCU

Well, there always has to be that one guy who gets drafted in round one that no one is talking about as first round guy and the Seahawks are a good bet to be the team that takes that guy.  They need interior offensive line help and while Avila isn’t the first name people usually talk about at guard or center, he’s a really good player.  He played guard this last year but he actually has more starts at center in his career.  The Seahawks need a new center and Avila is the type of big, mauling player they love inside.  He’s 6’4 and over 330 lbs. and he’s not exactly a smooth mover but on the inside, he is a dominant force.  Once he locks on, the play is over.  If the Seahawks plan to rely on the run game and not ask too much of Geno Smith, Avila would be a massive upgrade at either center or RG.  My guess is he’s their starting center in week one. 

25. New York Giants (9-7-1):  John Michael Schmitz     C     Minnesota

The Giants need help at WR and CB but the value really isn’t there right now.  So many of the WRs are the smaller, shifty guys; Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jalin Hyatt, or Josh Downs, they already have that covered, and then some.  They could go with Kelee Ringo or Cam Smith at CB but there is good depth there too.  Building up the line in front of Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley isn’t a sexy thing to do but it’s probably the right thing to do. They have their tackles but the inside of the line is a problem.  Ben Bredeson is penciled in at center with either Joshua Ezeudu or Shane Lemieux at LG, that’s not ideal.  Schmitz is a beast at center, he has years of experience, and he’s an immediate starter.  He makes life easier on Jones because he won’t be overwhelmed with playing center and he’ll open running lanes for Barkley.  He also creates competition by kicking Bredeson back out to compete at guard. 

26. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Brian Branch     S     Alabama

The Cowboys have addressed some of their needs in free agency with re-signing guys or trading for WR Brandin Cooks and CB Stephon Gilmore.  They could look to address the interior of the offensive line, especially the center position.  If Steve Avila or John Michael Schmitz make it this far, those would be smart additions. Since they don’t make it in this mock draft, and Drew Sanders (a Cowboys mock draft favorite) is also gone, I’m going with Branch.  He’s not your typical safety prospect, he’s probably best as a nickel corner but he has versatility.  The Cowboys have Jourdan Lewis coming off an injury and DaRon Bland played well last year but Branch is an upgrade.  Also, their safety spots aren’t settled long-term so Branch could be used there.  Dan Quinn is an excellent defensive mind and he would find smart ways to deploy a guy like Branch. 

27. Buffalo Bills (13-3):  Jordan Addison     WR     USC

The Bills are trying to make sure the offense is stacked for Josh Allen which is why they went after Odell Beckham Jr and other WRs in the off season.  Stefon Diggs is a true #1 WR and they still like Gabe Davis at this point, but they let Isaiah McKenzie walk in free agency and Cole Beasley should retire again and stay that way.  They have Khalil Shakir but if they really trusted Shakir to be the slot guy they probably wouldn’t have dusted off Beasley last season when McKenzie wasn’t working out.  Addison is undersized and he can play in the slot to start his career, it’s probably best for him.  Addison does have the potential to be even more, if he reaches his full potential, he could actually be a Diggs-like WR.  Diggs is an undersized guy who is a true WR1.  Diggs will also turn 30 this next season and he’s been complaining about his contract.  They could go for a RB but the only RB worth taking here is Jahmyr Gibbs and he’s redundant with James Cook and Naheim Hines on the roster. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4):  Jahmyr Gibbs     RB     Alabama

There has been a lot of smoke coming from Cincinnati about moving on from Joe Mixon.  He’s been a big part of the offense but the team can’t pay all their offensive stars and Mixon comes in behind Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins for sure and they would probably rather spend money to keep Tyler Boyd over paying a RB too much.  Gibbs is a good all-around back who can excel in the pass game, gives them plenty in the run game and will come quite cheap for the next five years as a late first-round player.  If they get Gibbs here, they may look to deal Mixon for a late draft pick just to see if they can get any value from him instead of cutting him.  The popular mock draft pick is a TE but they can get a very good TE on day two. 

29. New Orleans (from Denver/Mia/SF): Bryan Bresee     DT     Clemson

The Saints have this pick from trading Sean Payton to the Broncos.  They should be looking at best player available and that might just be Bresee.  They signed Khalen Saunders and Nathan Sheppard at DT to replace guys they lost in free agency but neither of those two has ever been great.  Bresee has the potential to be a beast up front.  He had a tough year personally this last year at Clemson and it clearly affected his play but he’s a talented guy.  The Saints could look to an edge player if they like Derick Hall or Keion White more than Bresee but they need help on the defensive line and they have to hope former first rounder Payton Turner can give them something at DE. They could go WR but as I’ve said before, the value isn’t there right now. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3):  Emmanuel Forbes     CB     Mississippi St.

The consensus is the top four CBs are Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, Deonte Banks, and Joey Porter Jr, there is no consensus on the fifth CB.  Forbes is a playmaking machine, he gets interceptions at a high rate and he had three pick sixes this last season, he knows what to do once he has them.  The knock on Forbes is he is super skinny.  He’s 6’1 and came in at 166 lbs. at the combine, that’s incredibly thin.  Keep in mind the Eagles are the team that drafted Devonta Smith in the top 10 and he was super skinny and he’s been just fine.  Forbes will have the opportunity in Philly to try to fill out a bit before he’s thrown in the fire.  Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddux are established as the top three CBs.  Forbes is never going to be a big CB, but he doesn’t let that stop him.  He plays with the confidence you want in a CB and while he’s really light, he’s never let that stop him from coming up to tackle a guy. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3):  Anton Harrison     OT     Oklahoma

The Chiefs let both Orlando Brown Jr and Andrew Wylie, their starting OTs last year, walk in free agency.  They signed Jawaan Taylor to be their LT after he started his entire career in Jacksonville at RT.  I’m not totally convinced Taylor is a LT and Harrison would be a hedge against that.  Harrison has moved up into the fifth OT spot on the board and tackles get moved up the draft board regularly.  He has the physical tools and the length and athleticism of a LT.  Harrison has some work to do on his technique but with Andy Reid and offensive line coach Andy Heck around to develop him, he could be the best OT out of this class.  The Chiefs need to protect Patrick Mahomes and relying on Lucas Niang to finally step up as a starting tackle would be a foolish mistake. 

Round 2

32. Chicago:  Will McDonald IV     Edge     Iowa St.

I think if Pittsburgh wants to move up to get the Bears 9^th pick, the Bears are going to insist on getting this pick back after they traded it for Chase Claypool.  With an OT on board, they look to the defensive side.  They need pass rushers badly.  McDonald is small but he’s fast off the edge with a killer spin move. 

33. Houston:  Keion White     DL    Georgia Tech

Houston needs help on defense and DeMeco Ryans comes from San Francisco where they built their defense around their elite line.  They could easily double up with White joining Myles Murphy on the edge.  White also has the versatility to kick inside when needed and Ryans will like that. 

34. Arizona:  Cam Smith     CB     South Carolina

Marco Wilson, Rashad Fenton, Antonio Hamilton Sr, Nate Hairston, Christian Matthew; those are the top five CBs on the Cardinals roster.  Cam Smith would be the CB1 from day one and they shouldn’t stop with him.  Smith gets a bit handsy and could be a penalty monster in the NFL but hopefully Jonathan Gannon and his defensive staff can coach that out of him. 

35. Indianapolis: Kelee Ringo     CB     Georgia

The Colts best CB is Kenny Moore and he’s a slot guy.  They need outside CBs badly.  Gus Bradley has evolved to use a cover-3 scheme and Ringo fits that style.  Ringo is a fantastic athlete with elite size but doesn’t change direction well.  The Colts defense would allow him to do what he does well and they get a big CB who can match up with big, physical WRs. 

36. Los Angeles Rams (5-12):  Adetomiwa Adebawore     DL     Northwestern 

The Rams were a mess last season.  The offense could at least be functional if they get guys healthy.  Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are the biggest names they need back but their offensive line was a total disaster and they need them all back.  That said, at least the offense has guys if they are healthy.  The defense is Aaron Donald and ten guys you’re never heard of.  Their pass rush is non-existent and they have to start somewhere.  Adebawore is a unique player who is shorter and lighter than you expect out of a guy who lined up inside a lot but also doesn’t really have the length like a DE prospect should.  However, he’s extremely effective as a pass rusher and gives you everything he’s got.  If anyone knows how to use a small interior rusher, it’s the Rams.  To be clear, nothing is off the table.  Stafford is 35 and coming off a missed season due to a serious injury, Cooper Kupp will be 30 next year and also coming off an injury, and Aaron Donald could retire any time.  Kupp and Donald also simply need more help at the positions they play.  The Rams won a Super Bowl by going all-in, this roster is the price they are paying for it. 

37. Seattle:  Zay Flowers     WR     Boston College

Many people think Flowers will be first round pick, maybe he will, but he falls here.  The Seahawks have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at WR and not much else.  Flowers would be an instant starter in the slot and give them a guy to mix and match with Lockett because Flowers can move outside when needed.

38. Las Vegas:  Dawand Jones     OT     Ohio St.

After getting a much-needed CB in round one the Raiders can address their offensive line in round two.  Jones is a RT only player but they have Kolten Miller at LT and they desperately need a legitimate RT.  Jones comes in as one of the biggest players in the league, and he’s actually pretty good. 

39. Carolina:  BJ Ojulari     OLB     LSU

Ojulari is an undersized pass rusher who would be best used rushing from space.  New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will likely be using a 3-4 defense and he needs someone to take some pressure off of Brian Burns.  Ojulari isn’t a finished product but he’s got potential. 

40. New Orleans: Quentin Johnston     WR     TCU

This would seem like a fall for Johnston but this is where he should go.  He’s a big-bodied WR who doesn’t play to his size with the ball in the air.  He’s a monster once he has it but he isn’t the contested catch guy you want.  He could learn some tricks of the trade from Michael Thomas while complementing Thomas and Chris Olave, assuming Thomas plays.

41. Tennessee:  Darnell Washington     TE     Georgia

This is a team that likes to run the ball and here they get the best blocking TE in the draft.  Washington’s blocking has been so hyped up it might be a little overkill but he’s really good.  He also has the possibility of becoming a much more useful pass catcher without Brock Bowers sucking up all the TE targets.  A rookie QB would like a target Washington’s size.

42. Green Bay: Luke Musgrave     TE     Oregon St.

Brian Gutekunst uses the Packers second straight pick on another pass catcher and it’s another one he gets for Aaron Rodgers (that’s like two thumbs up to Rodgers on his way out the door except those aren’t thumbs).  Musgrave is a 6’6 253 lbs. freak athlete who needs to stay healthy.  If he does, he’s a great pick up for a first year QB like Jordan Love, the ultimate safety valve. 

43. New York Jets: Joe Tippmann     C     Wisconsin

One offensive lineman is not enough.  They need center help as much as they need OT help unless they really think Wes Schweitzer can handle it (he’s better as the backup interior guy).  Tippman would solidify the line in front of Rodgers and give the offense a chance.

44. Atlanta: Calijah Kancey     DL     Pittsburgh

The Falcons pass rush has been bad for quite some time and this is just taking a shot on a guy who can add some juice there.  Kancey is an extreme outlier because he’s such a small DT with short arms.  He needs to be used in specific ways and Atlanta is so desperate for pass rush help maybe they can find creative ways to use him with big DEs like Calais Campbell and first rounder Tyree Wilson.

45. Green Bay:  Felix Anudike-Uzomah     DE     Kansas St.

Preston Smith will be 31 this year and Rashan Gary is heading towards free agency next year.  They don’t have much else at pass rusher. Anudike-Uzomah is the best pass rusher left on the board.  He’s one of the most natural edge rushers in the class and he paired it with actually being productive in his college career (19.5 sacks in the last two years). 

46. New England:  Jack Campbell     LB     Iowa

There is no one who loves a big ass LB with questionable coverage skills like Bill Belichick.  Campbell’s not terrible in coverage it’s just not where he excels.  Coming downhill, running down the play is him at his best, Belichick will love this guy.  As a Patriots fan, anyone replacing Bentley at ILB would be great.  I would love to see them consider taking WR Cedric Tillman here, they need a true X receiver, DeVante Parker has been impersonating one for years.    

47. Washington:  Tucker Craft     TE     South Dakota St.

The fifth TE off the board is a fight between Tucker Craft and Sam LaPorta and I’m giving Washington Craft because he’s slightly bigger and I think he fits their profile to replace Logan Thomas eventually.  Craft will take a minute to adjust from playing at the FCS level to the NFL but the Commanders aren’t poised to be all that competitive with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at QB.

48. Detroit:  Hendon Hooker      QB     Tennessee

Detroit waits around and Hooker falls in their lap.  I think the talk around Hooker in round one is just noise.  He’s already 25 years old and he’s coming off an ACL injury.  He will need this next year to rehab and get used to an NFL offense.  The Lions have Jared Goff, they can wait. 

49. Houston: Trenton Simpson     LB     Clemson

The Texans have some aging LBs and DeMeco Ryans knows the value of a great LB.  For one, he was one when he played, and he witnessed numerous ones during his time coaching the 49ers, including Fred Warner.  Simpson is a very good coverage LB which is where Warner separates himself too.  Simpson isn’t Warner but I’m sure Ryan can find useful ways to use him. 

50. Tampa Bay:  Sam LaPorta     TE     Iowa

They still have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage at WR but their top TEs are Cade Otten and Ko Kieft, not ideal.  LaPorta would give them a weapon they can use down the seam and he can block.  He helps whichever terrible QB they pick to start to be a little less terrible. 

51. Miami Dolphins (9-8):  Cody Mauch     C/G     North Dakota St.

The Dolphins have spent money on the offensive line (Terron Armstead, Connor Williams) and many draft picks (Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt) and yet their line still leaves a lot to be desired.  Mauch was a LT at North Dakota St. but he lacks the length to play tackle in the NFL and will move inside.  He worked at both guard and center at the Senior Bowl and held up just fine.  He isn’t the biggest or most powerful player but he’s athletic and agile which is perfect for the Dolphins offense.  He should come in and work at guard and he can challenge Eichenberg and Hunt but it’s also possible he gets a shot at center and they move Connor Williams to guard.  Either way, he’s an upgrade and a great fit for the Dolphins. 

52. Seattle:  O’Cyrus Torrence     OG     Florida

Seattle could really set up their offensive line for long-term success if they get Avila to play center and Torrence to play guard.  Added to second-year OTs Charles Cross and Abe Lucas and their “grizzled veteran” fourth-year guard Damien Lewis, that’s a good starting five.  Torrence shouldn’t fall this far but guards have to fit or have versatility for teams to really take them higher, Torrence is only a guard.  He’s a road grader that Ken Walker will love to run behind.

53. Chicago:  Julius Brents     CB     Kansas St.

Ryan Poles proved last year he’ll go for the guys he likes regardless of need and even though he drafted defensive backs last year, he could do it again.  Jaylon Johnson could be headed towards free agency and the Bears have a bunch of smaller CBs.  Brents is legitimately 6’3 and could be a great addition on the outside.   

54. Los Angeles Chargers:  Jalin Hyatt     WR     Tennessee

Even after moving up for Bijan Robinson in round one, they should double down on offense and take Hyatt.  I mocked him a few times in round one to the Chargers because he just makes sense.  They have the two big, tough WRs, they need the speed guy.  Hyatt is all speed.  He needs a team that can make use of what he does exceptionally well, go deep, and can let him develop the rest of his game over the next few years.  It’s a perfect match and Justin Herbert has the arm to use him.

55. Detroit: Matt Bergeron     OL     Syracuse

Surprisingly Detroit’s roster is in a place where they aren’t looking to fill a ton of holes.  If they get a CB and TE early, they can look for value.  Bergeron played LT at Syracuse and can develop into one if needed but he could also slide inside.  They had some injuries at RG last year and Jonah Jackson is heading towards free agency at LG.  Bergeron is a pick for depth now and development moving forward.

56. Jacksonville:  DJ Turner     CB     Michigan

The Jaguars cut Shaq Griffin and they could use an outside CB to start opposite Tyson Campbell so Darious Williams can be the nickel corner and Tre Herndon is a bench guy.  Turner is a speed demon and he could step in right away.

57. New York Giants:  Kyu Blu Kelly     CB     Stanford

The Giants need some size at CB, they have entirely too many CBs under 6’0.  Adoree’ Jackson, Darnay Holmes, and Aaron Robinson, and of those three only Jackson can really play outside. Kelly has played a lot of games at Stanford and even though he has had struggles at times, he has the size, athleticism, and experience worth betting on. 

58. Dallas:  Zach Charbonnet     RB     UCLA

Dallas finally cut the cord on Ezekiel Elliott after they franchise tagged Tony Pollard.  Pollard is coming off an injury and really isn’t the guy you want running head first into a wall trying to break through, that was Zeke’s job.  Charbonnet can be that guy now.  He’s a big back who isn’t flashy he’s just effective.  He can take the beating so Pollard can be the homerun hitter. 

59. Buffalo:  Jaelyn Duncan     OT     Maryland

Duncan doesn’t rate as high as many linemen in this draft but he’s long, athletic and a gifted pass blocker.  The Bills don’t need an OT right now but LT Dion Dawkins is 29, he only really has two years left on his deal and if they don’t want to pay him when he’s in his 30s, here’s a guy who might step in.  When you’re as good as the Bills has been, you can make this move.

60. Cincinnati: Antonio Johnson     S     Texas A&M

The Bengals lost both starting safeties off of last year’s team.  They drafted Dax Hill last year in anticipation of that and signed Nick Scott in free agency, but both those guys are smaller safeties.  Johnson has size at 6’2 and yet he’s a good athlete who can cover a little.  This isn’t a great safety class but Johnson is a guy worth having.

61. Chicago:  Devon Achane     RB     Texas A&M

The Bears are trying to build out their offense to give Justin Fields a chance to develop.  DJ Moore at WR was a nice start and getting a new RT in round one helps a lot.  D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert are good backs, but they’re grinders.  The offense needs more gamebreakers.  Achane is a gamebreaker, he’s a blur on the field.  He gives them a dimension they don’t have and Foreman and Herbert insure he won’t be used to grind out yards, just bust big runs.

62. Philadelphia:  Nick Saldiveri     OL     Old Dominion  

I can’t let the Eagles get out of round two without an offensive lineman.  Howie Roseman loves big guys and he’s always trying to be a step ahead on the line.  Saldiveri played RT at Old Dominion and dominated and then went to the Senior Bowl, moved inside to guard and played quite well.  He wouldn’t start this year unless there’s an injury but Jason Kelce is year-to-year for retirement now, Cam Jurgens will play RG until he moves inside to replace Kelce.  Saldiveri is also a hedge against Lane Johnson’s age and injury history at RT. 

63. Kansas City: Cedric Tillman     WR     Tennessee

If there was a true pass rushing threat here on the board I would go with him, but there isn’t.  Tillman is the one true X receiver in this class, he plays the position the way it should be played and uses his size to his advantage.  Tillman isn’t a true burner but he’s fast enough and just knows how to play WR.  The Chiefs only size at WR is Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Justin Watson, Tillman can be better than both.  

The last major piece of the off season that truly changes the draft is free agency.  Not all of the free agents have signed but most of the big ones have signed and those are the guys that affect the draft.  Teams go into the off season with needs and they can either fill them in free agency, trades, or through the draft.  Now that they have signed free agents (and some notable trades have happened, or will happen) to fill roster holes they can look to the draft to fill the rest of their needs. 

The other major news since my last mock draft was the Bears trading the #1 overall pick to Carolina for two 1^st round picks (this year and next year), two 2^nd round picks (this year and 2025) and WR DJ Moore.  This trade significantly changes the top of the draft by making things a lot simpler.  Carolina traded up to get a QB, we don’t know which QB just yet, but it’s not a trade you make unless it’s for a QB.  Other moves may have shifted teams’ priorities in the top 10, both Seattle and Detroit made signings on defense that could really change their outlook on the draft.  This is where things start to clear up. We are about six weeks out from the draft so teams have to focus in on where they want to go with their picks.  Here we go.

1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago):  CJ Stroud     QB     Ohio St.

The Panthers haven’t actually settled on a QB of choice here but this feels like the most likely one.  Stroud seems like the surest thing in this draft.  He’s the purest passer of the bunch, he has prototypical size, he’s the best processor of information of all the QBs, and he’s more athletic than he gets credit for.  In my previous mock draft, I compared him to an athletic version of Tom Brady, that would fit Frank Reich just fine.  Reich has worked with Phillip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, and others to varying degrees of success.  He could turn Stroud into the best version of himself.  Stroud would get to work with a good offensive line in front of him and while the team gave up DJ Moore in the trade, they have signed TE Hayden Hurst, RB Miles Sanders, and WR Adam Thielen.  The team gave up quite a bit of draft capital in the trade but they aren’t completely baren of picks because they picked up extra ones in the Christian McCaffrey trade.  They still need to add to the WR corps but they can still surround Stroud with a solid offense to play with.

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1):  Bryce Young     QB     Alabama

The Texans’ moves have only really confirmed they plan to draft a QB.  They signed a veteran backup QB Case Keenum, grabbed a veteran WR Robert Woods signed TE Dalton Schultz and RB Devin Singletary.  They are trying to change the culture after two tumultuous years and Bryce Young would help that move tremendously.  Between the leadership of new coach DeMeco Ryans and the character of Young, the path to a new and improved Houston Texans would start to take shape.  Keenum is a good mentor and locker room presence, as is Robert Woods.  Woods also allowed them to move Brandin Cooks, he was a good player but he was unhappy in Houston.  There is no room for that energy here and it will be easier on Young if he doesn’t have to contend with an unhappy WR.  Young’s size is his only drawback but the Texans need his leadership and demeanor as much as they need his talent. 

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Will Anderson Jr.     Edge     Alabama

This pick now becomes a pivot point in this draft.  If Carolina and Houston take QBs to start off the draft as expected, then teams may look to Arizona for a shot at the third QB if they really like one.  Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are potential starters at QB and there are plenty of teams that would welcome them.  Indianapolis is next and they are likely to take one.  I’m not sure new GM Monti Ossenfort wants to drop too far and if he doesn’t get an offer he likes, he can just stay put and take Anderson, arguably the best prospect in this draft.  Anderson should be a terror off the edge for whichever team gets him and he would actually fit quite nicely in Arizona where new head coach Jonathan Gannon would love his ability to pressure the pocket.  Anderson has star potential and the Cardinals have to build a defense almost from scratch, an elite pass rusher is a good place to start. 

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1):  Anthony Richardson     QB     Florida

The Colts were outbid for the first pick assuming they were bidding.  Now they have to decide if they want to sit and wait for a QB at four, try to make a small deal with Arizona to insure no one else moves ahead of them for a QB, or try to gauge Houston’s appetite for some draft capital to move up to two.  Here they stay put and take Richardson.  I think he’s the guy they would take at two or three anyway.  New head coach Shane Steichen developed Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia the last several years and Richardson isn’t all that dissimilar, except he’s bigger, stronger, and faster.  Richardson needs to work on his passing but for now, he’s a super athlete who can move the offense along.  He would benefit from Jonathan Taylor running the ball and having Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce at WR.  His athleticism would help mitigate a less than stellar offensive line in front of him.  He has all the tools to be an elite QB but the Colts have to allow him to develop without rushing him.  I’m not sure if owner Jim Irsay is willing to wait but picking Steichen as his head coach means I think he might actually be willing to wait. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver):  Jalen Carter     DT     Georgia

The Seahawks re-signed QB Geno Smith (and backup Drew Lock just for good measure) and while that doesn’t preclude them from taking a QB, it means they don’t have to take one unless someone they really like falls.  I doubt Will Levis is that guy.  However, Carter might tumble down the draft boards a little.  His legal issues probably aren’t going to really hurt him, he recently pleaded no contest to some driving charges and isn’t facing jail time.  His less than stellar showing at Georgia’s pro day is raising some red flags.  He has time to do some other workouts and convince teams he’s fine and will get back on track.  The Seahawks won’t be scared off, Pete Carroll believes in his own ability to motivate guys and he won’t shy away from Carter.  Carter would fit nicely up front with newly signed defensive linemen Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed.  There is a versatility to those two that would work well with Carter and he adds a youthful element that the team needs up front.  He’s a game wrecker up front and that would bode well for their defense. 

6. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams):  Tyree Wilson     DE     Texas Tech

Detroit’s secondary was an area of concern after a rough year and having a lot of free agents that they really didn’t want to bring back. They have Jeff Okudah, who had his best season last year and Jerry Jacobs, a young guy who came on last year and they like a lot, but that was it.  They signed Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley and that adds real depth.  They could still address CB but it feels like the defensive line offers better value now.  Tyree Wilson is a big defensive end who can play both the run and pass.  Opposite Aidan Hutchinson the Lions have a lot of bodies but most are smaller pass rushers with John Cominsky the only bigger body.  I could see the Lions trading down if someone wants to move up for a QB.  I don’t think they like any of the QBs enough to go get one here and unless they love Will Levis they pass on QB here. 

7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11):  Will Levis     QB     Kentucky

The Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo to be their starting QB but they are going to need someone to start at least the other seven games next year when he gets hurt.  Also, they didn’t make a long-term commitment to Jimmy G which means they are still looking for a QB of the future.  They aren’t going to move up to get a QB but should Levis fall here, I think they like him enough to draft him.  They can let him learn behind Garoppolo for as long as he stays healthy this season.  Levis is a physically gifted player who could take advantage of playing with Devante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow (assuming Renfrow is still there).  I’m not sure this would be the best choice, this team really needs to improve their defense and there are some top defensive prospects still on the board, but I understand getting a QB when you need a QB. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Christian Gonzalez     CB     Oregon

It seems as if the Falcons are content to play next season with Desmond Ridder at QB and they re-signed and extended the right side of their line with Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom.  They addressed a need up front on defense with DT David Onyemata and signed OLB Kaden Ellis from New Orleans for some pass rush help.  They also splurged on safety Jessie Bates III because they were pretty bad on the back end last year.  One area with a serious need is CB.  AJ Terrell is an elite cover guy but Casey Hayward will be 34 next season and Isaiah Oliver just left for San Francisco.  They have no depth.  Gonzalez is my favorite CB in this draft and he and Terrell could pair up as one of the best cover duos in the league.  He has length and athleticism and natural coverage skills.  The team could look for a pass rusher like Lukas Van Ness or Myles Murphy here but they aren’t great fits in the Atlanta defense and Gonzalez would make a bigger impact quicker than they would. 

9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina):  Peter Skoronski     OT      Northwestern

The Bears got a really good deal from Carolina and picking up the Panthers’ first round pick next year could be huge if they are starting a rookie QB all season (or Andy Dalton for that matter).  The key piece of the trade was WR DJ Moore.  Moore has legitimate #1 WR ability, he’s been a borderline top WR every year and he’s never played with a good QB.  He should be excellent with Justin Fields.  They also have Chase Claypool who they got for their second-round pick in this draft that they hope to get more out of next year.  I really wanted to give them RB Bijan Robinson here but they have added D’Onta Foreman and Travis Homer on cheap deals to supplement Khalil Herbert and I just can’t see them spending an asset like this on a RB.  Skoronski is arguably the best OT in this draft and at worst he’s the best OG in this draft.  I think he comes in and starts at RT immediately but he’s also a hedge against Braxton Jones not developing at LT.  This team needs to make some decisions on guys like Cody Whitehair, Teven Jenkins, and Larry Borom moving forward and Skoronski gives them the ability to move those guys to different positions or possibly send them packing.  He’s an upgrade at literally any position he ends up playing on the offensive line. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans):  Paris Johnson Jr.     OT     Ohio St.

The Eagles have actually done a good job or re-signing a number of defensive players they could have lost and they have some young guys ready to step in everywhere but safety.  They lost Marcus Epps and didn’t re-sign Chauncy Gardner-Johnson yet but there is no safety worth taking here and Howie Roseman almost always takes big guys.  On the offensive line they didn’t re-sign Isaac Seumalo at RG and they lost backup Andre Dillard.  Paris Johnson played RG at Ohio St. before he become their LT and he could step in at guard now, he can backup at OT, and he could be the eventual RT replacement for Lane Johnson since Johnson will be 33 this year.  GM Howie Roseman almost always takes linemen early and after re-signing Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham the defensive line need isn’t nearly as pressing as it seemed.  Johnson might just be too good for Roseman to overlook.    

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10): Michael Mayer     TE     Notre Dame

The Titans addressed their offensive line with free agents Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill.  They will give those guys a chance to be full-time starters with Dillard playing LT and Brunskill finding his best spot inside.  After adding Azeez Al-Shaair and Arden Key at LB they can look to fill a more pressing need instead of reaching for a LB here.  The Titans are still a run-first team with Derrick Henry and they don’t have a TE at the moment with Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim both free agents.  Mayer would add a pass catcher to their offense who is also a very good blocker.  They aren’t exactly stacked in the passing game and Mayer contested catch ability would be a welcomed addition for Ryan Tannehill (assuming he’s still the QB this year).  Mayer will be fine blocking for them and that matters as much in their offense as his pass catching skills. 

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Lukas Van Ness     DE     Iowa

The Texans take Bryce Young with the second pick and they have added some veterans on offense to help him out; WR Robert Woods and OG Shaq Mason improve two units that needed help the most.  The defense still needs a lot of help.  Their pass rush was pretty bad last season, Jonathan Greenard was injured and Jerry Hughes was their most productive pass rusher.  Jerry Hughes will be 35 years old.  They signed Chase Winovich but he’s never been a productive pass rusher.  Van Ness is a raw pass rusher but he has impressive physical tools.  It would be quite beneficial for him to learn from a coaching staff led by DeMeco Ryans and from a vet like Hughes who knows all the tricks of the trade.  The Texans are starting off their rebuild so they have time to wait for Van Ness to figure it out as a pass rusher.

13. New York Jets (7-10):  Broderick Jones     OT     Georgia

Assuming the Jets hold onto this pick and don’t have to send it to Green Bay in the Aaron Rodgers trade I would think they would like to get better protection on the edges for Rodgers.  Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, and Max Mitchell don’t make anyone feel comfortable with at the OT spot.  Jones can step in on the left side with Becton slotted for the right side and Brown and Mitchell as depth. There are some other options like Myles Murphy at DE if they have to do something with Carl Lawson to get Aaron Rodgers’ contract in under the cap.  The Jets’ defense was quite good last season so I expect this pick to be on offense to help Rodgers and we know he doesn’t like rookie WRs and they don’t need a RB or TE.  That leaves the line.  It might seem high but it wouldn’t be a bad move to draft John Michael Schmitz, the center from Minnesota because they could use a new one. 

14. New England Patriots (8-9):  Myles Murphy     DE     Clemson

Before free agency it seemed the Patriots would target an OT with Isaiah Wynn and a couple of other free agents leaving Trent Brown as the lone tackle.  Then the Patriots extended Conor McDermott, re-signed Yodny Cajuste, and signed free agents Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson.  Now they have a depth chart full of middling OTs, great.  I’m avoiding the obvious pick here which is Belichick taking Alabama safety Brian Branch because Belichick loves collecting safeties.  However, he has Kyle Duggar, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Joshuah Bledsoe, special teams stud Brandon Schooler and they are supposedly moving Jalen Mills, so he may have enough, but I wouldn’t be shocked.  Myles Murphy seems like a Belichick type of DE, he’s big, he’s physical, and he doesn’t actually produce a lot of sacks.  He can back up for now and with Lawrence Guy aging, he can eventually replace him.  So, like I said, he’ll draft Brian Branch, just to bother me (I like Branch but no team needs this many safeties). 

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9):  Jaxon Smith-Njigba     WR     Ohio St.

The Packers are almost certainly trading Aaron Rodgers to the Jets but they already have the QB they want to take over in Jordan Love.  Love is no guarantee to be good but they have to get a look at him this year to make a decision if he’s the guy going forward.  The offensive line needs to be healthy, especially David Bakhtiari and Elgin Jenkins.  They could definitely use a TE too but I think Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be too good to pass up for their offense.  They need an inside slot receiver and that’s the exact role Smith-Njigba is made for.  He’s not an outside guy. He doesn’t have the speed to win on the outside, however, he has the lateral quickness and precision route-running to destroy defenses from the slot.  He would be Jordan Love’s favorite target as his security blanket over the middle.  The Packers have Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to win on the outside, Smith-Njigba would make them even better by making teams cover over the middle.  If the Packers take Dalton Kincaid from Utah at TE, I won’t be shocked but this should be the pick. 

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1):  Brian Branch     FS     Alabama

The Commanders plan to go with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at QB and see how far they can get.  It might work out if their defense rebounds to be elite and their offense is solid otherwise it could result in them having a very high pick in the draft next year to get a new franchise QB.  They added a couple of solid veteran starters to the offensive line in C/G Nick Gates and RT Andrew Wylie.  Those two won’t set the world on fire but they are solid upgrades for a team that needed upgrades.  If Howell or Brissett can be decent with the rest of that offense, they should be fine.  On defense they need upgrades in the secondary.  The picked-up Cam Dantzler from Minnesota off waivers but they a safety.  Branch can do a little of everything, he can play deep, play in the slot, and he can be moved around.  He’s a good coverage player and he will make them better overall on defense.  He can be the playmaker they need in the secondary.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8):  Darnell Wright      OT     Tennessee

The Steelers picked up Patrick Peterson at CB trying to put another band-aid on that spot so they may wait to address the position.  One place they haven’t addressed in free agency is OT and while I think Darnell Wright is best suited for the right side of the line, some think he could play LT.  Either way, he’s an upgrade at either RT or LT and then Dan Moore Jr. and Chukwuma Okorafor can battle for the other spot.  This team needs to improve the offensive line so it can run the ball better and use Najee Harris instead of relying on Kenny Pickett too much.  Wright had an excellent year last season at RT for Tennessee after he struggled the year before at LT.  He has the athletic profile to be a LT but he will have to put in the work to make the switch work. 

18. Detroit Lions (9-8):  Dalton Kincaid     TE     Utah

The Lions have done a good job of building an offense around Jared Goff and their running game.  They replaced Jamaal Williams with David Montgomery and that should keep things moving right along.  Jameson Williams should step into the spot vacated by DJ Chark at WR leaving only TE as a sore spot.  After trading TJ Hockenson last year, they could use a replacement in the passing game.  Kincaid is an excellent pass catching TE who give them a nice complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.  He isn’t the biggest guy and he’s not a good blocker but they aren’t drafting him to block.    

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9):  Dawand Jones     OT     Ohio St.

The Buccaneers are in a strange spot.  Their team has plenty of really good veterans that makes you think they should compete for their division but they are going with either Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield at QB.  The team cut LT Donovan Smith because he made too much money and simply wasn’t very good any more.  The belief is that they plan to move Tristan Wirfs from RT to LT which would solve their LT problem but create a hole at RT.  Dawand Jones would fill that hole quite well.  Jones is a gigantic human being and while he doesn’t move all that quickly, you don’t have to move very far when you have his size and length.  Jones would solidify the OT spots on the team for the next several years as it seems the Buccaneers plan to keep Wirfs around for the long haul. 

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8):  John Michael Schmitz     C     Minnesota

The Seahawks re-signed Geno Smith which was their top priority to keep their offense going.  They have RB Ken Walker, WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, TE Noah Fant, and OTs Charles Cross and Abe Lucas; that’s a pretty solid foundation to build around.  One area that could undo all of it is the interior of the offensive line where Damien Lewis is the only sure thing.  C Austin Blythe retired and Gabe Jackson was let go so they need multiple players inside.  Schmitz is the best center in this draft and he’s an excellent place to start.  He comes from Minnesota where they know how to run block and he will make Walker’s life a lot easier and keep Geno upright.

It seems as though the league is going with ignoring the fact Miami’s pick is forfeited and just moving on with 31 picks in round one.  This is where Miami’s pick would have been.    

21. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7):  Bijan Robinson     RB     Texas

The Chargers could have been looking for a RT but the re-signed Trey Pipkins III meaning there is less of a reason to draft one early.  They also signed Eric Kendricks at LB to try to fix their problems with run defense, something they still haven’t figured out.  I still maintain they need a deep speed element like Jalin Hyatt and I wasn’t going to change from that pick without a really good reason, Austin Ekeler gave me that reason.  Ekeler has been the Chargers primary offensive weapon for several years now and now he wants to get paid like it.  One problem, the Chargers don’t want to give him a megadeal.  Ekeler is fantastic but he does get banged up from time-to-time and he admits to wanting a complementary RB to take some of the workload.  Well, here’s his replacement instead.  Robinson is the complete back, he’s a runner and a pass catcher, much like Ekeler he excels at both.  Robinson is younger, cheaper, and probably has a higher ceiling than Ekeler as a playmaker.  The Chargers can look for the deep threat WR in round two, Jalin Hyatt may even still be available then, the WR group is hard to gauge. 

22. Baltimore Ravens (10-7):  Devon Witherspoon     CB     Illinois

The Ravens have the whole Lamar Jackson situation to figure out and their offense doesn’t make any moves until they figure that out.  One thing they can do is solidify their defense.  Marcus Peters is a 30-year-old CB who is a free agent they don’t plan to bring back.  Marlon Humphrey needs a new partner on the outside and Witherspoon would be a great addition.  He’s not the biggest CB but that’s fine because Humphrey is the guy who can take on the bigger WRs while Witherspoon can match up with the other shiftier guys.  The Ravens don’t tend to reach to fill a need and that’s why they will pass on a WR and take Witherspoon.  It also just so happens that Witherspoon is one of the best prospects left and he fills a need. 

23. Minnesota Vikings (13-4):  Cam Smith     CB     South Carolina

The Vikings have a need at WR and at CB and at this point I think the value of a guy like Cam Smith is better than the WRs in this draft.  They did sign Byron Murphy and they did draft Andrew Booth Jr last year but they have no depth and Smith might be better than either of those guys.  Booth is coming off of knee surgery. Smith is not the biggest CB but he plays with an attitude and doesn’t back down.  He should be a starter immediately and he can be a high-level one at that.  The Vikings other needs like WR and LB can be addressed later in the draft but the top of the CB class is starting to dwindle and they are better off getting a good one now.  They could also use a pass rusher if they deal Za’Darius Smith but that move can also wait. 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8):  Kelee Ringo     CB     Georgia

The Jaguars offense adds Calvin Ridley at WR and with a healthy season out of OTs Cam Robinson and Walker Little they offense could be quite good.  They lost Jawaan Taylor to Kansas City but if Robinson can stay on the field Little can play RT, they can be fine there.  They should look for some OT depth but they can do that later.  Here they look to help out their young defense.  They let Shaquill Griffin go at CB and they need another outside guy.  Ringo has plenty of flaws but he’s a superior athlete with good ball skills and supreme confidence.  He gambles too often and gets beat but they can hope to coach that out of him.  Either way, he’s a playmaker they could really use in the secondary and they should be able to fit him into their defensive scheme.

25. New York Giants (9-7-1):  Quentin Johnston     WR     TCU

The Giants had arguably the worst WR corps in the league last season (the Bears may have been worse) but apparently, they didn’t mind it because they re-signed Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard.  Wan’Dale Robinson and David Sills V are also still here.  The only change they made was dumping Kenny Golladay and signing Paris Campbell, not exactly a needle mover.  They did trade for TE Darren Waller but I think they still need WR help especially considering Shepard, Robinson, Campbell and Waller all have injury histories that should worry the team.  Johnston is a boom or bust WR prospect.  He’s 6’4, 212 lbs. and has great deep speed but he rarely plays as big as his size and his hands are inconsistent.  Still, in this group of WRs he could be an absolute stud.  Daniel Jones needs more playmakers and Johnston at least looks like one.  The team also needs interior offensive line help so O’Cyrus Torrence is a distinct possibility here or if John Michael Schmitz makes it this far, he would be a no-brainer.

26. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Keion White     DL     Georgia Tech

The Cowboys have a couple of areas of concern, the interior of the offensive line and TE on offense.  They let TE Dalton Schultz go and they are getting older on the line including Zack Martin and Tyron Smith.  For now, Tyler Smith can be the LG if Tyron Smith and Terrance Steele get healthy but Tyler Smith is the eventual LT.  Tyler Biadasz is the center and he’s fine but he’s replaceable.  TE is a real possibility but there is plenty of depth at that position in the draft class so they can wait.  On defense they need help up front. They traded for CB Stephon Gilmore to address the biggest need and brought back their safeties.  Demarcus Lawrence is still a good DE but they don’t get much from the rest up front.  Keion White has the ability to play inside and out on the defensive line and that could come in handy.  He’s a more talented version of some of the guys they have and he can make some plays and help Lawrence and Micah Parsons as a pass rusher. 

27. Buffalo Bills (13-3):  Calijah Kancey     DT     Pittsburgh

The Bills do have a couple of needs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take an interior offensive lineman like O’Cyrus Torrence or a WR like Jordan Addison, a RB like Jahmyr Gibbs, or a LB like Drew Sanders.  However, the Bills are the type of team to take the best player available and Kancey may be that guy.  Kancey is an undersized DT who’s an excellent penetrator and pass rusher.  The Bills drafted one of those guys once hoping he would be the next Aaron Donald, that was Ed Oliver, but he never turned into the disruptor Donald is.  No one should be expected to be Aaron Donald but Kancey has many similar traits and can be better rusher than Oliver.  Oliver will also be a free agent next year and I doubt the Bills want to invest in him, especially if they can get the cheaper rookie model. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4):  Darnell Washington     TE     Georgia

The Bengals have to get cheaper at some positions as they prepare to pay Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and possibly Tee Higgins over the next couple of years.  That led to them letting Hayden Hurst walk in free agency but they need a better TE than Devin Asiasi.  Washington is a beast at 6’7 and somewhere around 270 lbs.  He is an excellent blocker and he has a huge catch radius.  He will be a great red zone threat especially with Joe Burrow throwing to him and since he won’t be taking a backseat to Brock Bowers, he might actually catch some balls as a TE.  The Bengals could grab Jahmyr Gibbs at RB as Joe Mixon’s eventual replacement or they could grab a RT if they decide to trade Jonah Williams after his trade request after losing his LT spot to Orlando Brown Jr.  Safety help is also a big need and if one of the top four CBs falls here, they should seriously consider drafting one, otherwise they can wait to address RB, OL, safety or CB until rounds two and three.

29. New Orleans Saints (from Denver):  Nolan Smith     OLB     Georgia

There is almost no chance Nolan Smith falls this far, he’s far too elite of an athlete and pass rusher but I just couldn’t find a good spot for him before this.  The Saints aren’t a perfect match considering he’s more of a 3-4 OLB and they run a 4-3 but Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive mind and he would find a way to use Smith’s immense talent.  One thing the Saints do need is a pass rusher.  Cameron Jordan is aging, Marcus Davenport left for Minnesota, and Kaden Ellis signed in Atlanta, they need help.  A playmaking LB can fit in anywhere and Smith is a major playmaker.  This team is always trying to compete, they showed that by signing Derek Carr and bringing back Michael Thomas one more time, so a readymade starter at LB works.  Smith is a far better option than relying on Zack Baun to finally breakout. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3):  Drew Sanders     LB     Arkansas

The Eagles brought back plenty of their defensive guys to make sure they aren’t desperately looking to fill holes but one place they lost some guys and don’t have all the replacements lined up is at LB.  TJ Edwards and Kyzir White left and only Nakobe Dean can only fill one spot, likely at MLB.  Sanders only really played LB for his one year at Arkansas after transferring from Alabama.  He was a pass rusher at Alabama but Arkansas used him more as an off-ball LB, the Eagles will use him to do both.  They already have Hassan Reddick as one LB who rushes, Sanders gives them even more options.  He’s a big LB too so he can help offset the fact that Dean is undersized.  Sanders has some developing ahead of him but for now, the Eagles can use him to do the things he does well and bring him along at the other stuff. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3):  Bryan Bresee     DT     Clemson

The Chiefs should look for another OT after losing both Orlando Brown Jr and Andrew Wylie and only signing Jawaan Taylor.  Counting on Lucas Niang to finally develop is a bad idea.  Unfortunately, the value at OT isn’t great here as they would have to reach for Matthew Bergeron, Anton Harrison, or Jaelyn Duncan.  There is great value at DT with Bresee, he would be a steal this late in round one.  They lost Khalen Saunders and haven’t re-signed Derrick Nnadi or Brandon Williams.  Chris Jones needs some help on the inside and Bresee is good enough to actually take some focus away from Jones because he can beat a guy inside pretty well.  The Chiefs could look for a WR to replace Juju Smith-Schuster or try for some depth at safety after Juan Thornhill signed in Cleveland but Bresee is the best player available and when you’re the Super Bowl Champions, you don’t have to draft anything in particular. 

Round 2

32. Pittsburgh: Jordan Addison     WR     USC

Diontae Johnson had 86 catches last year and no touchdowns.  George Pickens started to impress on the outside and found some chemistry with Kenny Pickett.  The Steelers don’t have any other receivers to count on.  Addison was Pickett’s go-to guy at Pittsburgh two years ago and he would look awesome as a slot guy in their offense and be a real playmaker. 

33. Houston: Cody Mauch     OL     North Dakota St.

The Texans extended Laremy Tunsil at LT, traded for Shaq Mason at RG and drafted Kenyon Green to play LG last year.  Mauch was a tackle at NDSU but he worked out inside at both center and guard at the Senior Bowl.  He’s a zone blocking type of player and the new Texans’ offensive coordinator comes from the Shanahan tree.  Mauch could be the new center in Houston very quickly, they aren’t great at that spot. 

34. Arizona: Julius Brents     CB     Kansas St.

Arizona’s top CB is Marco Wilson after Byron Murphy left for Minnesota, that’s not good.  Brents is a 6’4 CB with great cover skills and he has legitimate #1 CB potential and he would start out as that immediately on this defense. 

35. Indianapolis:  DJ Turner     CB     Michigan

Turner was a speed demon at the combine with the fastest 40 time.  He’s not the biggest CB but he has coverage skills and the Colts are woefully thin at CB.  Turner could start immediately.  They need plenty of help at spots on the offensive line too but Turner is good value here.    

36. Los Angeles Rams:  Derick Hall     DE     Auburn

It’s almost hard to make a pick for the Rams because their roster is in shambles, that’s the price you eventually pay when you mortgage everything to win a Super Bowl.  They have a lot of free agents they can’t re-sign because their cap is taking the hit now for past spending.  The offense has QB Matthew Stafford (assuming he’s healthy), WR Cooper Kupp, TE Tyle Higbee, and then a bunch of replacement level guys everywhere else.  And that’s the good news.  The defense is DT Aaron Donald and some young CBs they say they like (I wouldn’t go so far as to say I like them).  They traded away draft capital for years and this is what happens to your roster.  They have to start somewhere and just taking the best defensive playmaker left is a decent start.  Hall has all the traits you look for in a pass rusher; speed, power, length, and he was actually somewhat productive on an Auburn team that wasn’t great.  Getting Donald some pass rushing help is a good place to start and generating a pass rush could help those young corners they like so much.  There’s a long road to a rebuild ahead. 

37. Seattle:  Zay Flowers     WR     Boston College

Seattle has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but after that the WR group is pretty rough.  Flowers would be an excellent addition as a guy who can mix and match with Lockett both inside and out opposite Metcalf.  Flowers is very small but he’s electric when he gets the ball and he would be a matchup nightmare as a third guy. 

38. Las Vegas:  Luke Musgrave     TE     Oregon St.

The Raiders traded Darren Waller to the Giants and they need some help there.  Musgrave is a big, physical athlete who will only make it out of round one because of some medical questions with his knees.  He has superstar potential and Jimmy G loves to throw to the TE. 

39. Carolina:  Trenton Simpson     LB     Clemson

The Panthers basically have Shaq Thompson at LB and then not much else.  New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is bringing in a new defensive scheme and Simpson can fit into anything Evero wants to do.  He’s good in coverage and he can rush the passer when needed as a blitzer. 

40. New Orleans: Josh Downs     WR     North Carolina

The Saints re-signed Michael Thomas to a one-year reworked contract and they have Chris Olave, who had a great rookie year.  The rest of the WR group is not good.  Thomas isn’t really a guy you can count on either so Derek Carr needs help.  Downs can be the slot guy immediately and he’ll become a Carr favorite quickly.   

41. Tennessee:  Joe Tippman     C     Wisconsin

The Titans may have added Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill to the line but they still need a center with Aaron Brewer penciled in there now.  Tippman comes from Wisconsin where they ran the ball with power, that’s the Titans’ game.  He would start immediately. 

42. Cleveland Browns:  Jalin Hyatt     WR     Tennessee

This is the Browns first pick after trading their first rounder to Houston for Deshaun Watson.  They have spent some money to try to sure up their defense with DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DE Ogbo Okoronkwo, and safety Juan Thornhill plus they hired Jim Schwartz as the new defensive coordinator.  Watson didn’t have a great year after missing the first half or so of the year with his suspension, the offense never found a groove.  Amari Cooper proved he still has it at WR and had a good year but the rest of the group is underwhelming.  Donovan Peoples-Jones is solid but never spectacular and he’s simply not the deep threat they claim he is.  They need someone to truly take the top off the defense, open up the underneath stuff for TE David Njoku and WR David Bell, and back the safeties up so Nick Chubb has more room to run.  Say hello to Mr. Hyatt.  Deep speed is his game and he threatens everyone deep.  Hyatt doesn’t have to be the whole package right away; he can simply play his game for now and learn some of the finer points of being a WR from Cooper and Bell. 

43. New York Jets:  Will McDonald IV     Edge     Iowa St.

The Jets rely pretty heavily on Carl Lawson and Quinnen Williams for pressure on the QB and could really use some extra help.  Will McDonald is a thin-framed DE who has great speed off the edge and a deadly spin move.  He would be an excellent addition as a designated pass rusher as a rookie who could grow into a bigger role.

44. Atlanta:  Rashee Rice     WR     SMU

The Falcons need WRs to go with Drake London and picking up TE Jonnu Smith to go with Kyle Pitts is not enough.  Given Arthur Smith’s affinity for bigger players he will likely go for Rice over a guy like Marvin Mims even if it might be smarter to vary his type of WR.

45. Green Bay:  Tucker Craft     TE     South Dakota St.

The Packers are looking to make the move to Jordan Love and surrounding him with some skill position talent would be good.  Craft is a small-school prospect but he has big time athleticism and he has a variety of skills.  Playing at South Dakota St means he had to do many different things and that helped him become an all-around TE. 

46. New England Patriots: Deonte Banks     CB     Maryland

Belichick loves to draft defensive backs and he actually usually does well with it.  One problem is his propensity to draft small guys named Jones (the Jones thing is less of a problem than the small thing).  Banks is over 6’1 and plays man coverage, which Belichick likes.  Jack Jones was in the coach’s doghouse last year so Banks could potentially slide in at one outside spot and give the team some size against bigger WRs.

47. Washington:  Anton Harrison     OT     Oklahoma

The Commanders have Charles Leno Jr at LT and while he’s been serviceable Harrison would represent the potential to improve tremendously.  Harrison isn’t a finished product but he could come in, give them depth for now, and eventually take over for Leno at LT.

48. Detroit:  Jahmyr Gibbs     RB     Alabama

Detroit swapped David Montgomery in for Jamaal Williams and if Gibbs falls this far, they would be crazy not to swap him in for D’Andre Swift.  Swift has had some great moments for Detroit but he’s injury prone and unreliable.  Gibbs does all the things Swift can do and he’s younger and cheaper. 

49. Pittsburgh:  Antonio Johnson     S     Texas A&M

The Steelers didn’t re-sign Terrell Edmunds and only brought in Damontae Kazee at safety.  They need a guy to pair long-term with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Johnson has a myriad of complementary skills.  He can cover in the slot a little, cover a TE, and do some other stuff.  He would work nicely with Fitzpatrick.

50. Tampa Bay:  Tuli Tuipulotu     DL     USC

Tuipulotu is a big end who could add nice depth to the front three in Tampa Bay and help them get younger up front.  The have Logan Hall but the other ends have aged out and now it’s just Hall and Greg Gaines to flank Vita Vea and Gaines is pretty under sized.  That’s not Tuli’s problem at all, he just needs some experience.

51. Miami Dolphins:  Sam LaPorta     TE      Iowa

Mike McDaniels comes from the Shanahan coaching tree in San Francisco and he has been building an offense like the 49ers.  He even has two former 49er RBs so it would make sense he might want his own version of George Kittle.  LaPorta has been compared to Kittle and has a similar skill set.  He is a very good receiver and can be used both inline and on the outside.  He’s a willing blocker and while he can be more consistent, he can get there.  LaPorta is one of the better two-way TEs in this draft and that’s saying something because this is a stacked TE draft.  The Dolphins have been assembling a top group of skill position players and they let TE Mike Gesicki go because he wasn’t a great fit in their scheme, LaPorta is obviously a fantastic fit for them.  He also won’t demand the ball but he’ll make everyone pay for how much attention they have to give to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.  In this offense, he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player. 

52. Seattle:  O’Cyrus Torrence     OG     Florida

The Seahawks need more help than just a center inside on the offensive line and Torrence is too good to pass up.  I have a hard time thinking he will actually fall this far but it’s possible.  He would immediately step in at RG.

53. Chicago:  Felix Anudike-Uzomah     DE     Kansas St.

The Bears need some pass rush because they simply don’t have much.  They signed Demarcus Walker in free agency but he’s not really a pure pass rusher.  Anudike-Uzomah will be a good designated pass rusher as a rookie.  He has plenty of ability to become a good DE in the NFL.

54. L.A. Chargers:  Emmanuel Forbes     CB     Mississippi St.

The JC Jackson signing was a catastrophe last year and while they have to hope to salvage something from him this year, they need more CB help.  Forbes is really skinny but he’s strong enough and he’s a very good cover guy. 

55. Detroit:  Hendon Hooker     QB     Tennessee

The Lions might be the best landing spot for Hooker.  He is coming off a knee injury and needs time to heal.  Hooker has all the physical skills you want and he would be an excellent guy to develop behind Jared Goff.  He could be their long-term starter eventually. 

56. Jacksonville:  Matthew Bergeron     OT     Syracuse

Even with Cam Robinson and Walker Little penciled in at the tackle spots, they need depth.  Robinson isn’t the picture of health and Bergeron could be their long-term replacement for him.  For now, he can be depth at several positions and maybe push the starters.

57. New York Giants:  Steve Avila     OG     TCU

The Giants lost Nick Gates inside on the offensive line and they need some reinforcements.  Avila is a really wide body at 334 lbs. and he’s nearly immovable.  The Giants need a guy who can start early and Avila has plenty of starting experience in college, his transition to the NFL should be quick.

58. Dallas: Zach Charbonnet     RB     UCLA

The Cowboys cut Ezekiel Elliott for salary cap purposes and franchise tagged Tony Pollard.  Pollard is coming off an injury but he should be fine next season.  Pollard is an absolute speed demon who deserves his chance to be the #1 RB but he’s not built to get 30 touches a game.  Elliott was the power back and they need a short yardage guy to take that role.  Charbonnet can be more than that but as a rookie he’ll be fine being Pollard’s partner. 

59. Buffalo: Jack Campbell     LB     Iowa

This might be a little high for Campbell but the Bills just lost LB Tremaine Edmunds in free agency and Matt Milano needs a new running mate.  Edmunds was a tall, lanky LB with great range, sounds like a Hawkeye I know.  Campbell is rangy and instinctive and would make a nice replacement at MLB that would allow Milano to keep doing what he’s been doing quite well. 

60. Cincinnati:  Clark Phillips III     CB     Utah

Cincinnati’s top CB is Chidobe Awuzie, he got hurt last year and they had to rely on Eli Apple again.  Apple is a free agent they shouldn’t bring back and Phillips would make him unnecessary.  Phillips isn’t the biggest CB but what he lacks in size he makes up for in attitude, he doesn’t back down from anyone.  He has a higher ceiling than Cam Taylor-Britt or Mike Hilton so he would really upgrade the secondary.

61. Chicago:  Devon Achane     RB     Texas A&M

The Bears let David Montgomery go and signed D’Onta Foreman as his replacement as Khalil Herbert’s partner.  Foreman and Herbert are power backs who run people over, Achane is the guy you can’t catch.  He’s the homerun hitter they need.  If you want this offense to succeed, you have to get gamebreakers, DJ Moore was a start, Achane is the next level.  He’s small but he’s absolutely electric with the ball and can score at a moment’s notice.  He can make Justin Fields look very good taking a 4-yard dump off pass for a 60-yard TD. 

62. Philadelphia:  Jordan Battle     S     Alabama

Right now, the Eagles are looking at starting Reed Blankenship and K’Von Wallace at safety, that seems unlikely.  For a team that is looking to compete for a Super Bowl, you have to do better.  Battle doesn’t wow you with his physical gifts but the guy started 50 games at Alabama for Nick Saban, he can start in the NFL.

63. Kansas City:  Marvin Mims Jr.     WR     Oklahoma

The Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman leaving them with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore, not exactly awe-inspiring.  Mims was a playmaker at Oklahoma regardless of who his QB was and if you put him with Mahomes, look out.  He isn’t the biggest receiver but he can play inside or outside and the Chiefs have never cared much about size at WR.