Can Iowa be more than it’s been?  That’s the question.  Beth Goetz pulled the plug on the Brian Ferentz fiasco before November even got here and thankfully, it’s time to move on.  Those that are questioning the timing need to look no further than Kirk Ferentz’s Halloween press conference.  He talked about waiting until the end of the season and evaluating then.  He talked about evaluating like he has before.  Let me decode that for you, “if we win 9 or 10 games or the Big Ten West, I was planning on bringing Brian back no matter how short we were of 25 points per game”.  Goetz put that idea to rest before it could even begin.   

The problem with Kirk’s plan to wait until the end of the season is that Iowa will make a bowl game meaning he wasn’t going to “evaluate” until January and by then, any offensive coordinator candidates worth a damn would have other jobs.  Then he could keep Brian or if Goetz forced him out then, he could just install Jon Budmayr and keep doing things his way.  That’s not going to fly now, he has all kinds of time between the last game of the regular season and the bowl game to find a replacement.  There are the usual names that everyone seems to be mentioning because they have some tie to Kirk or he might feel comfortable with them.  Budmayr of course, Tim Polasek (his former offensive line coach), maybe Paul Chryst (former Wisconsin head coach), even David Raih (former Hawkeye player) has been mentioned.  All I can say is, if Kirk is comfortable with the guy, that’s probably a bad sign.

Now, when Kirk was asked about his process for finding a replacement, he said he was too focused on the season to worry about that now.  Well, not to worry, I decided (with a little encouragement) to share my offensive coordinator candidates for Kirk (or Beth) to peruse at their leisure.  This is not a list of people I think Kirk will look at, this is my list of guys Kirk should look at.  The likely hood is Kirk goes for one of the aforementioned guys or some retread coach nobody else wants (like the Greg Davis hiring). 

I would encourage Kirk to look at someone up and coming, someone with something new to offer.  I hope Beth Goetz strongly encourages Kirk to do just that.  Kirk has been acting far too much like his former boss Bill Belichick and hiring guys he knows and guys who won’t challenge him.  He needs to take a page from his former colleague Nick Saban and hire someone to fix his offense like Saban once did with Lane Kiffin.  Or he could pull a Bob Stoops and hire a young, innovative mind and eventually turn the job over to that guy.  Anyway, here’s my futile attempt to put something into the world and hope it comes true.  Here are some coaches from both the NFL and college that may be worth a look because they don’t come from the Ferentz school of offense. 

Five College Coordinators

These guys are all innovative minds who know how to call plays and have shown success in various stops.  Some have worked in multiple offensive systems so they have extensive knowledge of how best to use the talent on their team. 

Ryan Grubb     Offensive Coordinator     University of Washington

Grubb is probably not taking the Iowa offensive coordinator job but Iowa has to make the pitch.  Grubb was born and raised in Iowa and while he wasn’t a Hawkeye (he played at Buena Vista University) he’s a native Iowan and this state is still home.  He’s the offensive coordinator for one of the most explosive offenses in college football at Washington and he’s the QB coach (Lord knows Iowa needs better QB coaching).  He’s spent the majority of his career working under Kalen DeBoer, the architect of that Huskies offense and that offense has been good everywhere DeBoer and Grubb have used it.  It will be a tough sell but Iowa is a full-share member of the Big Ten and the TV and college football playoff money makes Iowa one of the big boys.  When you have a seat at the big boy table, you should act like it.  Iowa needs to stop acting like they don’t belong and show that they do.  Making a play for a guy like Grubb would be that kind of move.  Like I said, Iowa probably doesn’t get him but you have to make him say no.

Slade Nagle     Offensive Coordinator     Tulane University

Nagle has been on Willie Fritz’s staff at Tulane for eight years and just took over as offensive coordinator this last season, officially anyway.  Last year Fritz hired Jim Svoboda as his offensive coordinator but it ended up being Nagle who called the plays.  He was so well versed in the offense that he saw things Svoboda wasn’t seeing and Fritz made him the play caller.  He understood the personnel Tulane had (including the TEs he was coaching) and just had a feel for calling plays.  This season Tulane’s offense isn’t quite as good but that’s probably because they lost their starting QB Michael Pratt for several games (he’s a sleeper in draft circles) and they lost their backup QB in his first start.  The third-string QB led them to a comeback over Houston and even with all that QB turnover the Green Wave are still in the top 50 of most offensive categories, so about 80 spots ahead of Iowa this year.  Oh, and they are 7-1 and ranked in the top 25.  Nagle doesn’t seem like he would be married to one particular system, he would find the best way to use the talent he has to work with. 

Andy Ludwig     Offensive Coordinator     University of Utah

Ludwig is a coaching nomad so he’s basically the opposite of Kirk Ferentz and his staff.  Ludwig has coached under numerous head coaches and clearly has picked up a thing or two from many of them.  He’s having success over the last few seasons at Utah under Kyle Whittingham and that has led to his name being mentioned for some bigger jobs.  Ludwig is 59 years old so he has far more coaching experience than many of the other guys I will mention.  While he seems content at Utah, he’s used to moving around every few years so perhaps he could be convinced to give up his cushy job at Utah and take on the challenge at Iowa.  That may be a hard sell but give it a shot. 

Brennan Marion     Offensive Coordinator     UNLV

Marion is a younger guy at 36 years old but he’s coached under a number of different coaches and he’s also been a play caller at several stops.  He’s known for developing his GoGo offense when he was a high school coach early in his career and it has elements of the triple option along with some modern passing concepts.  He’s coached under offensive guys like Mark Whipple at Pitt when Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison were lighting up college football (Marion was Addison’s WR coach).  He also just spent a year under Steve Sarkisian at Texas before becoming UNLV’s OC this year.  I like guys with varied backgrounds who aren’t married to one system and will figure out what works with the guys he has. 

Tim Cramsey      Offensive Coordinator     Memphis

Cramsey is a veteran offensive coordinator.  He’s been the OC/QB coach at every stop he’s been at since 2009.  That includes New Hampshire, Florida International, Montana State, Nevada, Sam Houston State, Marshall, and Memphis.  The thing I like is that he’s been moving up the ladder and he’s had some very successful offenses, like the one he had at Marshall a couple of years ago was in the top 20 in the country.  When you’ve been as many places as he’s been you have to make adjustments to what your offense looks like and that’s something Iowa desperately needs.

***A couple of other names of younger, inexperienced guys Kirk should consider but would be way out of the box for him; Ben Arbuckle (Washington St. OC), Alex Mortensen (UAB OC). 

Five NFL Coaches

These guys are either QB coaches or passing game coaches who have worked with smart, innovative NFL coaches.  These guys would be similar to Mark Stoops hiring Liam Cohen from the Rams to fix his offense. 

Joe Brady     QB Coach     Buffalo Bills

Brady is most famous for being the passing game coordinator for the LSU team that won the National Championship and had Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase.  Having those guys would make anyone look good.  Brady then took over as the Panthers OC when Matt Rhule went to Carolina and it was a pretty ugly there.  He has moved on to the Bills where he’s been an assistant and is currently the QB coach for Josh Allen.  He started there when Brian Daboll was the offensive coordinator before he moved on to coach the Giants.  Now Brady is working under Ken Dorsey.  Brady is still only 34 years old but he’s been around a few impressive offenses and could be ready for the challenge of fixing Iowa’s offense. 

Ronald Curry     Passing Game Coordinator     New Orleans Saints

Curry started his professional coaching career under Jim Harbaugh when Harbaugh was coaching the 49ers.  After Harbaugh was let go, Curry moved on to the Saints and have been there ever since.  He’s been the WR coach, the QB coach, and currently he’s the passing game coordinator.  Curry learned for a number of years under Sean Payton and that’s a pretty good offensive mind to learn from.  He’s been progressing up the ladder and taking on more responsibility and he might be an intriguing option to look at if he wants a chance to be a play caller. 

Jake Peetz     Passing Game Specialist     LA Rams

If Ferentz wanted to go a near identical route to Mark Stoops at Kentucky, he could pluck Peetz from Sean McVay’s staff in LA just as Stoops did with Cohen.  Peetz has been a college offensive coordinator before at LSU so he has play calling experience.  He’s spent the last several years under McVay who is about as smart of an offensive mind as you can find in college or the NFL.  He turned down a job on the Nebraska staff of Matt Rhule last year to stay in LA so he clearly has good judgement. 

Klint Kubiak     Passing Game Coordinator     San Francisco 49ers

Kubiak is the son of former NFL Super Bowl winning coach Gary Kubiak.  Gary was a long-time assistant under Mike Shanahan and now Klint is the passing game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, sometimes nepotism works.  Klint has coached in both college and the NFL and coached both WRs and QBs.  He was also the play caller for one season for the Minnesota Vikings.  Spending time under one of the smartest coaches in football, Kyle Shanahan, makes Kubiak a very interesting up and coming coach.  I’m not sure if he wants to return to the college game but he’s an intriguing choice. 

Tom Manning     Tight Ends Coach     Indianapolis Colts

If this name sounds familiar it’s because before Manning became the TE coach for the Colts he served as Matt Campbell’s offensive coordinator at Iowa St.  I know, it seems weird to hire a guy who got fired from your in-state rival that you beat basically every time you played his offense but Manning was a solid coach.  He lost his job at ISU because Campbell needed a scapegoat when things weren’t going well and Manning took the fall.  I’m sure Kirk Ferentz is very familiar with Manning and while that scares me a bit, this is the one guy who Ferentz might be fine with and I’d be fine with, he had some good offenses at Iowa St. 

***Young or inexperienced NFL assistants Kirk should talk to and maybe look into hiring if he makes other changes on his offensive staff; Parks Frazier (Carolina Passing Game Coordinator), Dan Pitcher (Cincinnati QB coach), Brian Griese (San Francisco QB coach), Ben McDaniels (Houston Passing Game Coordinator), Chad O’Shea (Cleveland WR coach). A couple of older assistants who would be solid but wouldn’t rock the boat too much would be Doug Nussmeier (Chargers QB coach) and Keenan McCardell (Minnesota WR coach).

I have my fingers crossed that Kirk will make a smart choice but I’m not holding my breath.     

The long, slow decline of a legend is happening right in front of us.  Kirk Ferentz has been the coach at Iowa since 1999, that’s a hell of a run, but we are watching the end in slow motion.  I hate to say it but coaches who stay at one place for this long, rarely go out with a roar, it’s almost always a whimper.  There’s usually a steady, unmistakable decline that people don’t want to acknowledge.  It happened to Bobby Bowden, Bill Snyder, Frank Beamer and even Kirk’s predecessor at Iowa, Hayden Fry.  Sure, there’s sometimes a momentary bump like Bobby Bowden winning 10 games in 2003, Bill Snyder winning 9 games in 2016, or Fry winning 9 games in 1996, but everyone knows it’s not sustainable (sorry Frank Beamer, you had four non-descript seasons to end your legendary career at Virginia Tech). 

That decline in record hasn’t happened to Kirk yet but it’s coming.  He’s been propped up the past several years by great defense, great special teams, and a really pathetic Big Ten West division.  That division goes away next season and Iowa is staring into the abyss.  An offense that is at least a decade past its expiration date (and that’s being generous), an offensive coordinator who is in over his head, a head coach who refuses to fire anyone who might be failing at their job, and the prospect of having to try to recruit offensive players into literally the worst offense in college football.  The Big Ten will have 18 teams next year and they won’t finish in the top half if they continue with this offense. 

Kirk’s stubbornness has reached new heights, not only is he sticking with an offense that doesn’t work but he’s sticking with an ineffective QB who has been at Iowa all of 10 months and was only supposed to be depth at the position.  This isn’t about throwing Deacon Hill under the bus, he’s in a tough situation, but let’s be real.  Hill was supposed to transfer to Fordham when he left Wisconsin but Iowa was in desperate need of healthy QBs last spring when Cade McNamara wasn’t ready to practice and Iowa had lost two QBs to the transfer portal.  Jon Budmayr got the Hawkeyes McNamara and then they went to him again and he had a connection to Hill so Iowa gave him a shot.  Let me say this again, he was only supposed to be depth at the position, not a starter.  Somehow, he became the backup and now Ferentz won’t even give Joe Labas a chance.  I’m not sure how Hill became the unquestioned starter because it is absolutely inexplicable.  Don’t get me wrong, Labas isn’t fixing this offense (Tom Brady couldn’t fix this disaster), but the kid deserves a chance to play.  Hill is completing less than 38% of his passes so far and I just can’t believe Labas could be worse.  Sorry, I got off my point, back to Ferentz.

Kirk has abdicated his responsibility when it comes to Iowa’s offense.  He’s given up even trying to be good and last week against Minnesota it finally caught up to him.  He can piss and moan all he wants about the officials calling back Cooper DeJean’s punt return but that isn’t why Iowa lost Floyd of Rosedale.  He can even lament the fact that his QB Cade McNamara got hurt and lost his two best offensive pass catchers in TEs Luke Lachey and Erick All.  Those are excuses, his offense was terrible when he had those guys.  Kirk refuses to blame Brian, and admittedly, it’s not all Brian’s fault, it is however Kirk’s fault, all of it.  He’s the head coach, he’s the guy who won’t make the changes necessary to fix the problem, hell, he won’t even admit the real problem.  The offense is outdated, it’s pedestrian, it lacks all the hallmarks of a modern college offense.  Football has changed so much in just the past five years and Kirk Ferentz refuses to acknowledge it.  He can say he wants to play “complementary” football but it’s just an excuse for ineptitude at this point. 

Next year there is no Big Ten West to take advantage of and to make the Big Ten title game you have to finish first or second.  There is no chance with this offense Iowa finishes anywhere near that, a top half finish will be a struggle.  Kirk has a few paths forward but I have very little faith he will pick the right one.  The first one is to be remain obstinate, insist Brian gets a new contract and returns as offensive coordinator.  This seems unlikely because at this point even Kirk has to realize Brian needs to move on.  He may not like it but it’s what is best for Iowa and it’s what is best for Brian.  He needs to move on if he’s going to salvage his coaching career.  I have a hard time seeing Brian even agreeing to return, the environment at Iowa is too toxic for him now.  I have an even harder time seeing AD Beth Goetz going along with this, her first major act would alienate the football fanbase, not a great way to start. 

The second path is probably the one Kirk is most likely to feel comfortable with but Goetz shouldn’t agree to it.  Brian’s contract terminates when the Hawkeyes don’t reach the 25 points/game threshold and he moves on to a position coaching job somewhere else.  Then Kirk promotes analyst/coaching assistant (whatever his title is) Jon Budmayr to offensive coordinator and Iowa continues running Kirk’s offense with a new play caller.  This is the half measure that simply shouldn’t happen.  This is where Goetz must insist on change, that’s something that Kirk seems loathe to try.  If she agrees to let him hire Budmayr as the offensive coordinator it’s the final nail in Kirk’s career at Iowa.  Nothing will change, Iowa will finish tenth in the Big Ten at best next season and the reality will be that Kirk’s legacy at Iowa will end in a whimper.  Unfortunately, this is probably the most realistic path forward where Goetz gets “change” but doesn’t alienate Kirk by requiring real change. 

The last few paths start with Goetz absolutely insisting on real change and that goes one of two ways.  The least likely is she tells Kirk he has to hire an outside OC and he refuses and she has to fire him, that’s not happening, she’s not firing him.  The other way would be Kirk agrees to retire so everyone saves face.  This is possible but I would put it at highly unlikely, I don’t think Kirk wants to retire and I don’t think he would like feeling as though he’s being forced into it, although if he insists on the Budmayr route that’s the way it ends eventually anyway.  I don’t think he wants to go out this way so I’m hoping for the last path forward which would be for Ferentz to accept the reality of the situation and look outside his family and the Hawkeye family for some new blood.  If he wants some help with some names, I have a list (that’s not a joke, I have a list on my phone). This is the only chance Kirk has to salvage his legacy and end his career as a relevant coach. 

If Iowa falls into the middle of the Big Ten for the next three or four years, Kirk will just be a guy who coached a long time, was a good guy, had a solid career but that’s it.  He never won an outright Big Ten title, never won the Big Ten Championship game, and the question for me will always be, what could have been?  The past few years Iowa has had an elite defense and elite special teams and the team won a lot of games.  The problem is, if the offense has been good, they could have won more.  They could have made a college football playoff, they could have competed on a national level, but Ferentz wouldn’t make it happen, he wouldn’t change with the times.  Kirk has a chance to be the coach who saw the light, made the changes necessary and went out stronger at the end of his career.  The defense under Phil Parker can compete for a Big Ten title next year.  The special teams under Levar Woods can compete for a Big Ten title next year.  If Iowa has a real offense next season, the Big Ten title isn’t out of the question and making the 12-team playoff is certainly on the table.  With a new offensive coordinator, a new offensive scheme, and the transfer portal, anything is possible.  The question is, will Kirk Ferentz let it happen?  Will he make it happen?  Or, will he simply go out like so many other coaches who stayed too long and wouldn’t get out of their own way?  For now, it’s still Kirk’s choice but we aren’t far from it being Beth Goetz’s choice.     

Now give me a minute to change the name Kirk Ferentz to Bill Belichick and Beth Goetz to Robert Kraft and I’ll repost this as my thoughts on the Patriots. (The only difference is Steven Belichick isn’t part of the problem in New England, his defense is fine).      

   

I wrote this before the Chiefs/Lions game on Thursday but the outcome of that game chancged nothing I had previously thought. If anything it reinforced my thoughts on the Chiefs season probably coming up short and the Lions are good but they aren’t great yet.

MVP

Top Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Jalen Hurts, QB Josh Allen, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Justin Jefferson, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Joe Burrow, QB Justin Herbert

Sleeper: QB Trevor Lawrence

            Mahomes won the award last season for a reason, he was awesome even after they traded away Tyreek Hill.  Now he starts the season with Travis Kelce banged up, no JuJu Smith-Schuster and no Mecole Hardman.  His top WRs are Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Richie James, he’s really going to have to earn it this year.  Hurts is the engine that runs arguably the best offense in the league and if Philly keeps rolling, he could win this thing.  It’s a QB award mostly so the usual suspects are here; Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert, no surprise.  McCaffrey is the best RB in football and he could go for 1500 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving in Kyle Shanahan’s offense (maybe a slight exaggeration but just a slight one).  Jefferson is the best WR but WRs don’t win this award.  Trevor Lawrence made a leap last year with Doug Pederson being an actual NFL level coach. This year Lawrence gets Calvin Ridley, a legitimate WR1.  Lawrence is going for 5000 yards and 45 TDs. 

My Pick: Trevor Lawrence. 

Yep, I’m going with my dark horse.  Lawrence is the real deal and he shows it this year and carries the Jaguars to a division title.  I think he barely edges out Burrow, who I expect to have a great year too, the difference is people expect Burrow to be great.    

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Nick Bosa, DE/LB Micah Parsons, DE Myles Garrett, LB TJ Watt, CB Sauce Gardner

Sleepers: LB Hassan Reddick, CB Patrick Surtain II

            Bosa is the reigning defensive player of the year and while he could certainly repeat, missing all of training camp in a contract holdout probably means he starts slow.  Parsons is supposed to be moving to DE full-time but I think he’ll still play a little LB in certain situation.  Garrett is a sack machine and if the Browns are ever actually good, someone might give him some credit.  Watt is coming off an injury but he should be back and ready to dominate.  Gardner is arguably the best CB in football, teams avoid throwing his way which makes it hard for him to get the stats needed to get votes.  That’s also the plight of Surtain, he’s the guy making it an argument for best CB in football.  Reddick has found his place in Philly and he’s a top sack guy and plays LB. 

My Pick:  Micah Parsons

I picked the guy who was the dark horse for MVP but I’m picking the odds-on favorite for defensive player of the year.  No need to get cute, Parsons is going to rack up sack numbers all season long on one of the best defenses in football. He’s an emerging player and this won’t be his last defensive player of the year award.  Bosa will win more too but this one goes to Parsons. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: RB Bijan Robinson, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jordan Addison, WR Zay Flowers, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, QB Bryce Young, QB CJ Stroud, QB Anthony Richardson

Sleepers: WR Jalin Hyatt, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Sam LaPorta

Deep Sleeper: WR Cedric Tillman

            I listed a ton of rookies and almost none of them have a chance to win this award, it’s Bijan Robinson’s award to lose.  Gibbs has an outside shot because he’s a dynamic playmaker on a good offense but he won’t get the volume of Robinson.  Addison should be the best rookie receiver stats wise but his numbers will be dwarfed by Justin Jefferson.  Flowers and Njigba have too many veterans to overcome.  The QBs aren’t in great situations to win the award.  Hyatt could emerge as the deep threat in New York and his highlight reel will be fun.  Kincade and LaPorta have a chance to be good but rookie TEs are almost never that impressive.  I like Tillman if he can get on the field, he’s a playmaker. 

My Pick: Bijan Robinson

            No chance am I betting against a sure thing.  Robinson is a generational RB playing for a coach who wants to run the ball.  If McCaffrey isn’t the guy to go for 1500 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards, it’s Robinson. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Will Anderson, DT Jalen Carter, CB Christian Gonzalez, CB Devon Witherspoon, LB Jack Campbell

Sleepers: CB Emmanuel Forbes, DE Will McDonald IV, S Brian Branch

Deep Sleeper: LB Marte Mapu

            Anderson is the favorite for the award but I’m afraid he might not quite get the sack numbers necessary to get the award.  Carter is going to be in a rotation so his numbers aren’t going to be great and he’s a DT so he’s probably not going to stand out anyway.  I would love to see Gonzalez with about eight picks this year but I think teams will learn to avoid him.  Witherspoon might have a better chance of some stats with team likely avoiding Riq Woolen on the other side of him.  Campbell is going to pile up the tackle numbers but LBs rarely win individual awards, just ask Fred Warner how may defensive player of the year awards he has.  Forbes is a walking pick-six and he might have the flashy plays to get noticed.  McDonald is a pass rush specialist to start so his sack numbers might be good but will he play enough? That’s the question.  Branch is the heady safety who could shine in the slot.  Mapu is a Belichick special and he’s going to be all over the defense and the Patriots defense should be elite, I’m just not sure he’ll stand out enough this year.   

My pick:  Christian Gonzalez

            I had a really hard time picking this award (no really, I really didn’t think I would pick Gonzalez at all).  I love Gonzalez and it’s still unbelievable he fell to the Patriots in the middle of round one. There’s a chance teams figure out not to throw his way but he is a rookie so perhaps it takes them all season to figure that out. Also, the Patriots defense is going to be great so he might garner some recognition for being a big part of it.   

Postseason Picks

Super Bowl

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati

Super Bowl Champion

Cincinnati Bengals (I never thought I’d live long enough to see this happen)

Playoff Hott Reads

• It’s was equally hard narrowing down the three AFC wildcard teams as it was to come up with a third NFC wildcard team.  The AFC is stacked and Steelers, Browns or Chargers could easily make the playoffs (even the Titans wouldn’t totally surprise me).  If Tua gets hurt the Dolphins aren’t coming close to the playoffs.  I have zero faith the Packers are making the playoffs but it’s them, the Giants, the Vikings or maybe Atlanta (I’m not a fan of the Vikings or Falcons defenses).  I think the Giants and Packers tie record wise and it comes down to their head-to-head game in December, I’m going Packers.     
• I almost flipped a coin to figure out the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl team from there.  It’s tough to pick against Kansas City but they had a lot of luck with few injuries and great rookie play to get them there last year.  Travis Kelce is banged up to start the year and Chris Jones is still holding out, tough to think everything goes their way this year.
• I like the Bengals.  I love Joe Burrow.  That offense is going to be elite.  Ja’Marr Chase is going to push Justin Jefferson for the title of best WR in football.  They are going to be battle tested going through the AFC North so they will be ready for the playoffs. 
• The NFC is a four-team race to me; Eagles, 49ers, Lions, and Cowboys.  I’m picking San Francisco over the Eagles because they almost beat the Eagles last year in the playoffs without a functioning QB. As long as Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold can play, they should be fine. 

Regular Season Hott Reads

• So that was all a bunch of the good stuff for the year, what about the bad?  I think it’s quite clear Arizona is going to be the worst team, even if Kyler gets back.  I mentioned they should trade guys like DJ Humphries and Budda Baker.  Humphries to the Jets (please no) or the Patriots (hell yes) seems possible.  Baker should go to a team trying to win, might I suggest Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or Jacksonville. 
• I think Kyler comes back at some point in October but that doesn’t help and he’s playing for Atlanta, Minnesota, or my favorite choice, Las Vegas, next year. 
• Speaking of Las Vegas lets take a look at who the first coach fired might be…sorry did I give it away?  I actually think it could be a two-man race between Josh McDaniels and Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay.  Sorry but these two just seem like dead men walking.  While one is an offensive guy and one is a defensive guy, they do have some things in common.  Both are second-time head coaches and both are probably better suited to be coordinators on their respective sides of the ball.  I’ll choose McDaniels to go first because the Raiders have several potential interim head coaches already on staff; DC Patrick Graham, WR coach Edgar Bennett, Senior Defensive Assistant Rob Ryan, Passing game coordinator Scott Turner or OC Mick Lombardi.  The Bucs staff has less obvious candidates, maybe special team’s coordinator Keith Armstrong, he’s been in the league forever. OC Dave Canales is in his first year as a coordinator and the two co-DCs don’t have a ton of experience either.
• There are other coaches who should be worried about their jobs.  Ron Rivera is a well-respected man in the NFL but Washington is looking for a fresh start and it’s going to take a heck of year to save him.  Kevin Stefanski needs to get the Browns very close to the playoffs at the very least or he’s getting replaced.  If Robert Saleh doesn’t win with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, they go looking for a new leader.  If Arthur Smith’s offense doesn’t take off in Atlanta or Dennis Allen doesn’t compete in New Orleans, those two could be looking for work.  Brandon Staley needs to take the Chargers to the playoffs or his ready-made replacement, Kellen Moore, will have his job.  Finally, if Matthew Stafford doesn’t rebound and decides to call it a career and the Rams don’t get a pick high enough to take either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, Sean McVay will be calling Thursday Night Football on Amazon in 2024, he won’t get fired, he’ll walk away for a few years. 
• We could be in for some impressive offensive years out of certain players.  I think Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are going to go ballistic in receiving yardage with Tyreek Hill probably not far behind.  The dark horse pick to be in the top five in receiving yardage is Calvin Ridley, he seems to have a good rapport with Trevor Lawrence already.
• Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson are all going to be elite RBs who are also excellent in the passing game, this much we know.  Two guys who could really break out as runners and receivers are Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard.  Chubb has always been an elite runner but the passing work went to Kareem Hunt.  With Hunt gone, Chubb should be some more use catching the ball.  Pollard has always been a weapon and now he’ll get the bulk of the running work and the passing game work.  The workloads from last season of Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry scare me a bit but they are still great players, just not sure they can match the production. 
• Bill Belichick needs Bill O’Brien to save his ass after last year’s offensive debacle and I think he does.  The Patriots won’t have an elite offense but they won’t look ridiculous like last season.  If the offense overachieves than O’Brien can head off to a head coaching job and Josh McDaniels can return for his third stint as OC (I’m not excited about that prospect). 
• I think Justin Fields takes a leap this year.  Having a better offensive line and WR DJ Moore is truly game changing.  Unfortunately, it might not improve their record by that much because I do not like their defense, especially up front. 
• The Chargers are one of the more intriguing teams of the year.  Going from Joe Lombardi at OC to Kellen Moore is a major upgrade, now Moore just needs to get Justin Herbert to throw it downfield.  The offensive line should be much improved with Rashawn Slater back from injury so Herbert should have time.  If Brandon Staley screws this up, he’s going to be someone’s defensive coordinator in 2024.    
• There are two first-year head coaches who should be worried about being one-and-done with their respective teams.  Frank Reich needs to get the offense playing well around Bryce Harper, I don’t think owner David Tepper is going to have a lot of patience.  Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon is not set up for success and if the Cardinals are worried that Caleb Williams might not want to play for them, they could make a play for USC head coach Lincoln Riley.  I think GM Monti Ossenfort is smart enough not to repeat the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray debacle (that was Steve Keim’s mess just to be clear), but I’m almost certain owner Michael Bidwell isn’t. 
• The top four picks in the 2024 NFL draft will be USC QB Caleb Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye, Ohio St. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and Penn St. OT Olu Fashanu.  Not necessarily in that order but something close to it.  Unless Williams decides he really doesn’t want to play for the Cardinals.   

            I really don’t want to have to talk about this division, it’s a mess.  I’m picking the Saints because they have the best QB in the division and that QB is Derek Carr, that’s tough.  Atlanta is getting a lot of love for some of their off season moves and draft picks and while I love Bijan Robinson as much as anyone, that roster is thin and that offense is counting on Desmond Ridder to overcome some things.  Carolina looked like a mess in the preseason and if their line doesn’t block for Bryce Young, it’s going to be a bad year.  For Young’s sake, I hope they figure it out, he deserves a chance.  I can’t take Tampa Bay seriously with Todd Bowles coaching and Baker Mayfield as their QB. 

New Orleans Saints

            This team might be better than anyone is giving them credit for and it’s because they have Derek Carr at QB.  He’s the only proven starting QB in the division and while there are questions around him, they might have better answers than other teams have for their questions.  Carr have never been an elite QB but he’s always been a little better than he gets credit for. 

            The team actually has talent at the skill positions and it starts at WR now.  Chris Olave had a very good rookie season with some less than stellar QB play.  Pairing Olave’s downfield ability with Carr’s penchant for throwing it deep and they will be a perfect pairing.  Michael Thomas is apparently back after two years away with some sort of ankle injury.  He actually played in a preseason game so that’s a step in the right direction.  If he’s healthy, he’s an amazing #2 WR.  Rashid Shaheed is the third guy and he’s also an awesome deep ball guy so Carr will love him too.  At TE, they have Juwan Johnson, an emerging player, Taysom Hill, the do-everything guy, Foster Moreau, the very good backup, and believe it or not, Jimmy Graham is back.  Graham made the roster after not playing last year, he’s still looks like a red zone matchup nightmare. 

            The running game will rely on Jamaal Williams early in the year because Alvin Kamara is suspended to start the year.  Williams was awesome last year scoring TDs for Detroit; he’ll need to do a little more for at least three weeks.  Kamara is still a talent and they need him to rebound from some subpar years.  Having an actual QB should help him as a pass catcher.  Carr may love the deep ball but he also knows how to dump it off to his RBs.  The offensive line returns four starters; LG Andrus Peat, C Eric McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, and RT Ryan Ramczyk.  Those guys have been a unit for a while.  LT Trevor Penning steps in after missing most of last season with an injury and they hope he’s ready to go.  This line can be very good and if they give Carr time to find Olave, Thomas, Shaheed, and Kamara, they will have a good offense.    

            The defense has been excellent since Dennis Allen came on as defensive coordinator before he took over as head coach.  They continue to be good but they are getting a little older in some key spots and need some young guys to step up.  Cameron Jordan is still their best defensive lineman but he’s 34 and his production is slipping.  Carl Granderson is the other starter, he’s not great but not terrible.  They need Payton Turner and Isaiah Foskey to turn into real players.  At DT they have Nathan Shepard and Khalen Saunders, two veterans who don’t move the needle but get the job done.  Rookie Bryan Bresee is the guy who could really make a difference. 

            At LB it’s still Demario Davis holding down the middle.  He’s also 34 but he’s still getting it done.  He’s flanked by Pete Werner on one side, he’s solid but not spectacular yet.  The other side is Zack Baun who hasn’t done much.  They don’t have much depth. 

            The secondary can be very good.  CB Marshon Lattimore is still a legitimate #1 while Paulson Adebo has become a pretty good second CB.  Alontae Taylor needs to step up as the third corner.  At safety, Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye are still getting it done.  They may not be the playmakers they were when they were younger but they are smart and don’t get beat easily.  This defense can keep this team in games unless the older guys really fall off.  They may only have this year before that happens. 

Atlanta Falcons

            I’m not on board with everyone who is jumping on the Falcons bandwagon as the best team in this division.  The idea that Arthur Smith is building some “positionless” offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts is premature.  Last season the offense was hamstrung by Marcus Mariota’s inability to throw a football because of his nerve issue in his elbow and they still took forever to go to Desmond Ridder.  I like Ridder more than some but that’s still worrisome.  Ridder is no sure thing and he’s not really surrounded by tons of talent. 

            As far as pass catchers go, Drake London was a top ten draft pick and Kyle Pitts was a top five pick at TE but beyond them, it’s really thin. If they played RB Bijan Robinson as a full-time WR he would be the second best WR on the roster.  Beyond London, it’s Scotty Miller, KhaDarel Hodge, and Josh Ali, that’s not a great depth chart.  London and Pitts weren’t exactly lighting up last year in Smith’s offense and while Ridder is better than Mariota, he’s not Patrick Mahomes.  This team is going to need their two TE sets with Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith to come through or this offense is going to be hurting. 

            The running game should be elite.  The offensive line is good and they have a generational RB in Bijan Robinson.  Robinson is a great runner with vision, balance, power, and speed.  He’s an elite talent who can catch the ball out of the backfield too.  He will be the focal point of the offense but he will also be the focal point of every opposing defense.  Tyler Allgier is a good backup and should get some carries too.  The offensive line returns LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, and RT Kaleb McGary.  Lindstrom became the highest paid guard in the league this off season and McGary got a nice new contract too.  The one change is rookie LG Matthew Bergeron coming in from Syracuse.  They hope Bergeron can solidify the LG spot that has been a bit of an issue the last few years.  This is a good offensive line that at times plays great.

            To say this defense is in transition would be a major understatement.  Long-time NFL defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired and Arthur Smith hired Ryan Nielsen off the Saints staff to replace him.  It’s going to be a big change and there’s a lot of new faces.  Starting up front the team signed Calais Campbell and David Onyemata to play alongside Grady Jarrett.  Campbell has been a great player at times but he’s 37.  He’s still a giant human though and this front needed talent.  Onyemata takes over the NT spot after playing DT in New Orleans.  He’s not the biggest NT but he’s a tough player.  Jarrett finally gets some help up front.  It feels like he’s been playing by himself up front for years.

            The signings of Campbell and Onyemata at first looked like the Falcons might move to a 4-3 base defense but then their LB signings seemed to end that notion.  They have the ability to play multiple fronts now but signing Bud Dupree at OLB and Kaden Elliss at ILB means they are still set up for a 3-4 defense.  Dupree is a pass rusher from the OLB spot to pair with Lorenzo Carter and backed up by Arnold Ebiketie.  Ellis joins Troy Anderson inside and all of this should improve the defense overall.  Dupree is a bit of a wildcard given his injury history but Elliss was very good in New Orleans last season and Dupree, Carter, and Ebiketie should make a nice rotation at OLB. 

            The secondary starts with CB AJ Terrell, he’s one of the best cover corners in the game.  Teams avoid his side of the field and the team needs to find him help.  They are taking a chance on Jeff Okudah, who they traded for from Detroit, after he finally had a solid year.  After being injured most of his first two years, Okudah played in 15 games last season and was fine.  Fine would be an improvement opposite Terrell after the last few seasons in Atlanta.  The team also spent major money on safety Jessie Bates III to stabilize the back end. They hope having Bates steady play at FS will improve Richie Grant’s play at SS and the backend overall. 

Carolina Panthers

            This team looked bad during the preseason but I’m going to overlook that and assume they will be a little better when the games actually count.  The offensive line was not good in the preseason and that’s a major problem if it continues because Bryce Young can’t take a beating, he simply won’t last long without good protection.  Let’s chalk that up to a new offense and the line trying to work out the kinks.  This team will go as far as Bryce Young takes them, that won’t be very far this season but they shouldn’t be as bad as they looked in the preseason. 

            Young doesn’t have a cadre of weapons at his disposal, at least not great ones anyway.  Adam Thielen is a professional WR who can still get open and move the chains but he’s not a dynamic weapon by any means.  DJ Chark was once a dynamic player but injuries have made him less so at this point.  Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo looks the part at 6’2 220 lbs. but he’s still a rookie.  The team was so desperate for a playmaker they traded for Ihmir Smith-Marsette from Kansas City after he had a good preseason.  Smith-Marsette has bounced around in his career because he generally makes some dumb mistakes, but he’s a playmaker if you get the ball in his hands.  TEs Hayden Hurst and Ian Thomas are solid move the chain guys but aren’t scaring anyone.

            The offensive line was quietly good last year once LT Ikem Ekwonu settled in as a rookie.  They looked bad in the preseason but o-line coach James Campen is a good one and I think he gets them settled in. It’s a new offense with a lot of new ideas coming together and it may take them a minute.  LG Brady Christiansen, C Bradley Bozeman, and RT Taylor Moton all return with Ekwonu.  Their familiarity with each other should help.  RG Austin Corbett is injured so for now it’s rookie Chandler Zavala starting.  That’s going to be the issue, can Zavala hold up?  The running back is free agent signee Miles Sanders.  He’s a solid player who had a good year in Philly last season but he’s more the steady type than the game breaker.  This team needs Bryce Young to create the big plays because the skill group isn’t going to do it. 

            The defense has some good players and now they have a top-level coordinator calling the plays.  Frank Reich hired what should be an excellent staff on both sides of the ball but his best hire was defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero.  Evero was a master last year in Denver and he has some pieces to work with here.  Up front the line should be built around Derrick Brown.  Brown is one of the most physically imposing players in the league and while he hasn’t always been his best self, Evero should bring it out of him.  Shy Tuttle and DeShawn Williams are the other starters and they aren’t great but they’re serviceable. 

            This defense will go as far as the LBs take them.  Brian Burns had a breakout year last year and now he moves to OLB in Evero’s defense and he could be even better.  He can be an elite player and this is his best chance.  They didn’t have another legitimate pass rusher opposite Burns so they signed veteran Justin Houston.  Houston is 34 but he’s still getting it done and he’s better than Yetur Gross-Matos or Marquis Haynes Sr.  Inside it’s veteran stalwart Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu.  Luvu was solid last year, they’re a solid duo. 

            The secondary has some of the fun pieces for Evero to use.  CB Jaycee Horn played most of last season after recovering from an injury and he has the potential to be a CB1 another year removed from that injury.  Donte Jackson will make a nice CB2 opposite Horn if Horn can ascend.  The safety spot gets a veteran upgrade with SS Vonn Bell.  He comes in and pairs with FS Xavier Woods to be a steady pair in the middle of the back end.  The other thing he does is frees Jeremy Chinn from being a full-time safety.  Chinn is the nickelback here and that will allow Evero to find ways to use him all over.  Chinn doesn’t fit a traditional defensive role but his size and athleticism allows him to do many things. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            If this team had an option better than Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at QB I might have picked them to win this division.  That’s just how volatile this division might be and how little I think of Baker Mayfield winning the starting job.  I have zero confidence in Mayfield’s ability to run this offense on the field and zero confidence in his ability to lead this team in any way.  I’m not sure why but he’s just never been able to command a team the way a QB really should. 

            There is plenty of talent going to waste on this offense if Mayfield plays down to my expectations.  Mike Evans is still one of the scariest deep-ball threats in the NFL.  Chris Godwin is another year removed from his injury season and he’s always a catch monster.  While they lost third receiver Russell Gage to an injury rookie Trey Palmer is an intriguing player who might be a better pro than he was a college player.  He was limited at Nebraska due to QB issues, unfortunately I’m not sure that’s improved for him here.  TE Cade Otten isn’t anything special but he’s fine. 

            The running game goes from Leonard Fournette to Rachaad White.  White has some pop and he has a good overall skill set.  The problem for him will be the offensive line he’ll be running behind.  I have no doubt that Tristan Wirfs will go from being one of the best RTs in the in the NFL to one of the best LTs in the NFL very quickly.  He’s a fantastic athlete with elite strength and ability.  Surprisingly, Luke Goedeke made the move to RT from inside during the preseason and looked solid.  That’s the good news, the bad news is the interior of the line.  C Ryan Jensen was lost to IR for the year already, Robert Hainsey replaces him.  Hainsey isn’t bad but he’s not Jensen and it weakens the pivot.  Rookie Cody Mauch gets the RG spot and while I love his potential, he’s a rookie playing between a new RT and an okay center.  LG will be manned by Matt Feiler, a free agent from the Chargers.  There’s a reason the Chargers let Feiler go, he had an awful year last year.  Pressure up the middle is going to make Baker Mayfield uncomfortable and it’s going to compromise the running game. 

            While I have serious questions about Todd Bowles as a head coach, he’s always been a great defensive mind.  This defense is in a transition from some of its older players to its younger group of recent draft picks and free agents.  Up front, rookie Calijah Kancey should take one of the DE spots outside of Vita Vea. Vea is arguably the best NT in football and Kancey is an undersized disruptor who needs Vea’s size to offset his lack of size.  They hope former second round pick Logan Hall can take the other DE spot but they signed former Ram Greg Gaines just in case Hall isn’t up for it. 

            The LBs still feature veteran Lavonte David but the marriage between David and the team could end any time given his age.  His leadership is still important especially after he helped the team smooth over contract issues with Devin White.  White is the future at the LB position here but the team hasn’t extended him and it’s caused issues.  At OLB Shaq Barrett is still the best bet to be the playmaker but he’s coming off injury and he’s 30.  Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is the guy they hope can break out; it hasn’t happened yet.  Anthony Nelson gives them a young veteran they count on in a backup role, they may need to expand his role. 

            The secondary has talent but is also in a bit of a transition.  Jamel Dean was re-signed to a new contract and he pairs with Carlton Davis III at CB to make a nice duo.  They lost Sean Murphy-Bunting who had made them a nice trio and now they need a new guy for when they go into the nickel, for now it’s Dee Delaney.  At safety, Antoine Winfield Jr. is fantastic but they are counting on career backup Ryan Neal coming over from Seattle to be the SS. Winfield covers for a lot of issues but not only is Neal not proven starter, they have little depth.  Rookie free agents Kaevon Merriweather and Christian Izien are the only other safeties on the roster.        

This division is Jacksonville’s for the taking.  Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the division and leads the best unit in the division, the Jaguars offense.  However, if the Jags defense lets them down, Mike Vrabel and the Titans will almost assuredly be better than we all think they will be because Vrabel is just that good of a coach.  I’m not sure Houston or Indianapolis will be good but there’s a chance neither of them is as bad as we might think.  The Texans got their two cornerstone guys in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson while the Colts have their lottery ticket in Anthony Richardson.  Jim Irsay’s inexplicable handling of the Jonathan Taylor situation is going to make things more difficult in Indy for Richardson. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

            This team took a major step last season largely because of their massive upgrade at head coach with Doug Pederson replacing Urban Meyer.  Having an actual NFL head coach running an actual NFL style offense with a legitimate offensive coordinator (Press Taylor) really allowed Trevor Lawrence to show what he can be.  He just scratched the surface last season and another year in the system with more help on offense could really unleash his potential. 

            Lawrence made the most of what he had last year with pass catchers like Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram having career years.  All of those guys are talented players who were finally being used to their full potential under Pederson but the offense was missing that one big play threat, enter Calvin Ridley.  Technically Ridley joined the Jags last year during the season in a trade but he suspended for the year due to gambling.  Now, he’s returned to football after almost two years off (he missed the season before for Covid related reasons).  When Ridley last took the field in Atlanta for a full year, he was an excellent WR and was ready to be a true #1 WR.  He and Trevor Lawrence have looked good together in preseason and this should scare opponents of the Jaguars. 

            The running game is in the hands of Travis Etienne who had a good year last year after missing his rookie year with an injury.  He’s got electric speed and while he wasn’t great catching the ball last year, he was fine.  His one area of concern was he didn’t score many TDs and the team addressed this issue by drafting Tank Bigsby.  I wasn’t a huge Bigsby fan coming out of the draft but he can be solid in this backup role.  The offensive line must play better and they start the year with LT Cam Robinson suspended for six games.  Walker Little steps in there and I think he’ll do well.  I’ve never been a Robinson fan but he’s been solid, I like Little’s upside.  LG Ben Bartch is nothing special and RG Brandon Scherff is 31 and his age is starting to show.  He’s not the dominant player he once was and they need him to be solid.  C Luke Fortner was a rookie last year and played pretty well.  Rookie RT Anton Harrison will step in with Robinson out and he’s looked good in the preseason. If the line gives Lawrence time and Etienne room to run, this offense can be great. 

            The defense needs to play better.  They were not great last year and they didn’t really get reinforcements this off season.  The team is counting on some young guys to step up their play and they need a couple of guys to have break out years.  Their three-man front has Folorunso Fatukasi and Roy Robertson-Harris with a bit of a question mark in the middle because Devon Hamilton starts the year on IR.  Angelo Blackson probably gets the call at NT. 

            The LB group is where they need real improvement if they want this defense to make a difference.  OLB Josh Allen was the seventh overall pick in 2019 and he’s never been a true difference maker as a pass rusher.  It’s time for him to be that or it’s time to move on.  He needs some help from Travon Walker, the #1 overall pick from last year who had an uninspiring first year.  Walker was changing positions so there’s still reason for optimism that he can be better, but they need it now.  They still have former first round pick K’Lavon Chaisson for some reason, he’s always been a disappointment.  ILB Devin Lloyd was a first rounder last year who started the year solid and then had some rookie struggles.  Foyesade Oluokun was a former free agent splash who is a very productive LB.

            The secondary returns all four starters and I’m not sure that’s a good thing.  They are led by CB Tyson Campbell who could be a #1 CB but he’s just not quite there.  That’s what a lot of this defense feels like, just not quite there.  Darious Williams was a solid second CB and he’s back too.  Tre Herndon looks like the nickel guy.  Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins are decent as the safety tandem, that’s about the best I can give them.  The offense is going to have to put up points to overcome this defense unless Allen, Walker, Lloyd, Campbell, and maybe Cisco really break out as top players this year. 

Tennessee Titans

            The Titans drafted Malik Willis in the third-round last year and then drafted Will Levis in the second round of this last draft and yet Ryan Tannehill is still the starter in Tennessee.  Mike Vrabel just can’t quit him.  Vrabel isn’t the type of guy to want to rebuild, or reset, or re-anything, he wants to win, even if it only means you’re winning nine games tops.  Tannehill can win nine games with Derrick Henry running the ball and a good defense.

            Tannehill has one of the least inspiring pass catching groups on paper but there is potential.  DeAndre Hopkins was a late add this off season when he took the money the Titans were offering over his other options.  Hopkins hasn’t been the picture of health the last few years in Arizona and he’s 31 so it doesn’t get easier.  He can still be useful but he’s not likely to be a dominant player any more.  Treylon Burks looked like a rookie a lot last year but he’s still a talented guy.  In a more dynamic offense, he might be a more dynamic player but he is what he is in Tennessee.  TE Chig Okonkwo is a very athletic player who has a chance to be a breakout player this year.  This isn’t going to be a high-flying offense but they need to at least be a little threatening to keep teams from loading the box. 

            The offense still revolves around Derrick Henry.  With the exception of the year he missed half the season with an injury, Henry has been a monster in this offense.  Even with almost 350 carries last year he ended up nearly doubling his career high in catches too and being an even bigger part of the offense.  He’s 29 and could fall off the cliff at any time but you could lose a lot of money betting on that.  They did draft Tyjae Spears who might finally be a talented enough runner to take a little bit off Henry’s plate.  The offensive line was abysmal last season and I’m not sure their changes are going to help.  LT Andre Dilliard takes over, he couldn’t win the job in Philly for a reason.  Daniel Brunskill gets the RG job, he’s not great.  Aaron Brewer is a holdover at center, he’s average at best.  RT Nicholas Petit-Frere is suspended to start the year leaving journeyman Chris Hubbard starting.  Rookie Peter Skoronski looks like the only sure thing at LG, he’s a rookie and he’s the best lineman they have. 

            Mike Vrabel’s defense should be good.  They signed a few free agents to help shore up the defense in a couple of weak areas.  One place they aren’t weak is up front.  Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL and Denico Autry is one of the more underrated ones.  They flank Teair Tart, Tart isn’t one of the bigger NTs in the league but he’s still pretty good.  Simmons is the disruptor up front and makes everyone’s job easier. 

            Harold Landry III had a breakout year last year with 12 sacks and that’s the type of production they need from him.  He didn’t have much help in the sack department from the rest of the OLB so the team signed Arden Key hoping he could give a little juice.  They also grabbed Trevis Gibson from Chicago after cut down day this year.  Neither Key or Gibson have had great sack numbers but they are guys who can get some pressure.  ILB is being turned over to Azeez Al-Shaair, a free agent from San Francisco, and Jack Gibbens, a rookie free agent from last year.  Al-Shaair was overshadowed in San Fran with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw being awesome all the time.  He’s a good LB and they need him to be with a guy as green as Gibbens next to him. 

            The secondary features some good CBs who have never quite been great CBs.  Kristian Fulton is really good but not quite elite and Roger McCreary was pretty good as a rookie last year.  They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting from Tampa Bay to give them more depth.  It has hurt them that former first round pick Caleb Farley has never been healthy enough to fulfill his full potential.  He’s dealing with a family tragedy from this off season so he’s not a factor at the moment.  Kevin Byard is still one of the better free safeties in the league even if he isn’t as great as he once was and doesn’t get the recognition he deserves.  SS Amani Hooker is a valuable versatile defender who is really coming into his own as a pro. 

Indianapolis Colts

            The Colts aren’t going to be very good this year but they should be fun to watch as Anthony Richardson just becomes their offense.  The Jonathan Taylor saga means even more will fall on Richardson’s plate.  The passing game is going to be pretty rudimentary while Richardson gets used to playing QB against NFL teams but Shane Steichen will rely on Richardson’s legs to keep the offense moving. 

            The pass catching unit has some solid players but no major play makers.  Michael Pittman Jr. is a good player and would probably be pretty good with an elite passing QB but Richardson isn’t that right now.  Alec Pierce is a good downfield target in theory but we really haven’t seen that in reality so far.  Isaiah McKenzie is a decent pro but he underwhelmed last year with Josh Allen as his QB.  Josh Downs is a rookie who could be quite good in the slot.  Mo Alie-Cox is a potential good TE but good is probably his ceiling.

            The running game goes into the tank with Jonanthan Taylor starting the season on the PUP list.  Zack Moss is coming off a broken arm in training camp and he’s the listed starter with Deon Jackson as the backup, that’s not good.  The offensive line was awful last year and having an athlete like Richardson behind them instead of a statue like Matt Ryan will help but Richardson is also inexperienced so that won’t help.  They are counting on LT Bernhard Raimann to be a full-time starter in his second year, he needs to make a leap if that’s going to work.  Quentin Nelson is arguably the best guard in football when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last year, they need him to be this year.  C Ryan Kelly is still fine but he just turned 30 so that’s something to watch.  Will Fries was less than good at RG, that might be why RT Braden Smith had a subpar year.  He should rebound but there is no guarantee.

            The Colts lack an elite pass rusher on the edge, they have Kwity Paye, who is a good DE but not a high-end pass rusher.  They have Dayo Odeyingbo who had a solid year last year and is another year removed from an injury, they hope he develops more.  They signed veteran Samson Ebukam to give them some depth.  Their real pressure player is DT DeForest Bruckner who they got a couple of years ago from San Franscisco.  He’s a beast on the inside and really knows how to push the pocket.  Grover Stewart plays next to him inside, he’s a solid pro. 

            The LBs were in trouble last year because Shaq Leonard was hurt and you simply can’t replace Shaq Leonard.  Zaire Franklin is a good player but he’s a better player when Leonard is playing next to him.  EJ Speed is a bit bigger than Leonard and Franklin and gives them a different look.  This defense has been built around Leonard and his freakish playing speed, when he’s out, they just aren’t as good. 

            The secondary is going young at CB.  They have Kenny Moore as their nickel guy and he’s the only one with any real experience.  JuJu Brents is set to start as a rookie with fellow rookie Jaylon Jones backing him up.  The other spot has two second-year guys Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr.  It could be a long year for this group as they get thrown into the fire.  Safety is handled by Julian Blackmon at strong safety and Rodney Thomas II at free.  Blackmon is developing nicely but these guys are in for a tough year with the youngsters outside. 

Houston Texans

            There was a part of me that thought the Texans offense might not be as bad as everyone though it would be, then the offensive line fell apart at the end of training camp and, well, it’s going to be ugly.  QB CJ Stroud is a good player who can run this offense at a high level if the rest of the unit was better but for now, he’s just going to have to try to survive. 

            This offense comes from the Shanahan tree as DeMeco Ryans brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco.  Hopefully they can institute that type of running game to try to help ease the burden on the offensive line and on Stroud.  Dameon Pierce is an excellent RB and he can carry a heavy load.  They also have Devin Singletary for depth, that could prove crucial.  The offensive line was looking good and they still are at a few spots.  LT Laramy Tunsil is one of the better LTs in football.  RT Tytus Howard isn’t elite but he gets the job done.  The team traded for Shaq Mason to solve their RG issues and he should be solid.  The problem is that they were hoping second-year LG Kenyon Green would take a step in his development but he’s now out for the year with shoulder surgery.  They drafted Juice Scruggs in round two to solve their center issues and he’s out to start the year leaving sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson to step in.  Having a sixth rounder replace your second rounder is bad enough but they ended up taking Kendrick Green off the Steelers scrapheap to replace Kenyon Green, that’s a massive downgrade. 

            They need the running game to carry the load because this is one of the least impressive pass catching units you’ll find in the league.  Nico Collins is probably their #1 WR by default.  Collins isn’t a bad player he’s just not the guy you want being your WR1.  Robert Woods was signed to bring a veteran presence, that’s about all he brings.  Noah Brown was also signed for some reason.  They have to hope their younger guys develop quickly.  Tank Dell is a rookie, John Metchie missed his rookie year with cancer so he’s basically a rookie and they can hope Xavier Hutchinson outplays his sixth-round draft slot.  TE Dalton Schultz isn’t a game breaker but he does give Stroud a reliable target. 

            I look at the defensive depth chart and it doesn’t look as bad as I thought it would.  The team traded back up in round one of the draft to get Will Anderson.  They have taken a lot of criticism for that move but Anderson is a cornerstone player, he sets the tone for the defense, and he gives DeMeco Ryans someone to build around.  Anderson may never be a 15-18 sack guy but he’s a good edge player and he and Jonathan Greenard should generate pressure.  They also have the ageless wonder Jerry Hughes as a rotation guy.  Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins are solid NFL DTs, there are plenty of teams with guys worse than them starting. 

            The LB group is in transition.  Denzel Perryman was brought in to be a stabilizing force in the middle.  He’s bounced around in his career but he’s always a solid player.  Christian Harris is a young guy with some athleticism who needs more reps to get better, they hope.  For now, veteran Blake Cashman has the other spot. Cashman is fine but he isn’t great. 

            The secondary has two young guys with really high ceilings.  CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the most talented players at the position.  He needs to stay healthy so he can get the reps he needs to reach his potential.  FS Jalen Pitre is the other young guy with massive potential.  He could be one of the better safeties in the game especially playing in DeMeco Ryans defense.  Steven Nelson starts at the other CB, he’s a solid veteran.  They signed Jimmy Ward from San Francisco to be the quarterback of this defense.  He was a guy they used all over for the 49ers and now he’s here to help the young guys learn Ryans’ defense.  He will have a big influence on Pitre and probably Stingley too.