2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

This is my post-combine, pre-free agency mock draft so it’s going to change this next week as teams sign free agents that change their team needs. Some teams might make trades that affect the way they approach the draft in April and we will get a better sense of what teams are looking to do. For example, it’s been rumored the Broncos are looking to trade for Sam Howell as an inexpensive option to compete with Jared Stidham at QB and that would mean they aren’t looking to make a move for a QB.

In this draft I’m going to make some trades to see how things might change, how they might fall, and predict how desperate teams are to get they guy they want. Going into the draft as of now, the Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders are all teams that could move up to draft a QB. However, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell, and maybe even a guy like Ryan Tannehill could change their approach to moving up. Here we go.

Round 1

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Caleb Williams QB USC

We are squarely in the misinformation era of draft season where everyone is trying to influence things and make people second guess and get nervous. Rumors about Williams will be rampant, good, and bad. For now, it looks like Ryan Poles is going to trade Justin Fields, draft Caleb Williams and build his team around his new QB working with a new offensive staff. The market for Fields has cooled considerably but once free agency clears up some QB questions I think he finds a spot for Fields, if not, he may have to be patient and wait until after the draft and try to get a pick in next year’s draft (that’s unlikely but not impossible). Williams has his detractors, and I’m not completely sold on him, but the talent is there if Shane Waldron can find a way to harness it. The Mahomes comps are unfair, Mahomes is one of one, Williams’ upside is elite but his downside is pretty apparent. If they can’t rein in his undisciplined approach and his freelancing undermines the offense, he’s a bust.

2. Washington Commanders (4-13): Jayden Daniels QB LSU

The misinformation campaign against Williams will be coming out of Washington as they try to undermine Chicago’s confidence in Caleb so that they can try to move up and draft him without giving up too much. It’s likely to fail but it’s worth a try, the only way I see the Bears passing on Williams now is if the Commander overwhelm them with a trade offer and unless owner Josh Harris overrules his GM and coach, I don’t think that will happen. This is a change to Daniels because for some reason team’s still have confidence in Kliff Kingsbury as a coach and now that he’s running their offense, I think he’ll talk them into Daniels over Drake Maye. Maye ran a spread offense at UNC but Daniels is the more dynamic runner (Maye is an excellent athlete too but Daniels has more explosive traits). Daniels might get killed if they don’t address their offensive line deficiencies but that’s problem for free agency. Unfortunately for them, there isn’t anyone left in the organization to remind them that they once took RGIII second overall and his career was derailed by injuries because he was a slightly built running QB who got hurt and was never the same. Daniels is a dynamic playmaker and an upgrade for them, if he stays healthy. I think he struggles with certain throws and his velocity isn’t great which could be a problem against NFL defenders but I don’t think Kingsbury will care.

3. New England Patriots (4-13): Drake Maye QB North Carolina

This would be a dream scenario for me as Maye is my favorite QB in this class. He’s big, he was 6’4 223 lbs. at the combine. His athleticism gets dismissed because he’s getting compared to Williams and Daniels but Maye isn’t a statue in the pocket. He has legitimate running ability and the frame to hold up. He’s not Josh Allen running guys over but that’s because he’s smart enough to not put himself in harm’s way. Maye’s confidence in his arm strength and his inconsistent mechanics makes him inaccurate at times which can lead to turnovers but that’s correctable with coaching. He has two years of starting experience which is helpful and last year he didn’t have a great supporting cast outside of WR Tez Walker for half the season so he’s used to playing with lesser talent around him (that will be the case unless New England does well in free agency and the draft at WR). He’s the leader the team needs, he’ll bring guys together and he’s not Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe so he’s got that going for him.

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio St.

This couldn’t fall better for the Cardinals with three QBs going 1-2-3 and them being the first team not looking for a new QB. They plan is to build around Kyler Murray and step one here is a doozy. Harrison didn’t work out at the combine, he didn’t do media availability either, and it seems like he’s not testing at all for teams. He made it clear his off-season training is about getting better at football not training to do the testing stuff prospects do. It doesn’t matter, watch the film, he’s the best WR prospect I’ve ever seen. He plays inside, he plays outside. He has great size, he’s an elite route runner, and he knows how to get separation in any situation. He can walk into a league filled with elite WRs and he’ll be one of them on day one. Their may be teams trying to trade into this spot to get Harrison or the fourth QB, the Cardinals have to say hell no and just take Harrison, they can’t pass on him.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE from LA Chargers): JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

To put this in context, I think Kirk Cousins signs in Atlanta because Minnesota’s front office doesn’t want to spend $40 million a year on a QB with WR Justin Jefferson and LT Christian Darrisaw coming up for contract extensions. Once they strike out on the free agent market after that, they have to make a move for QB. The Chargers want to move down and they pick up Minnesota’s first in 2025 and maybe a third this year. Minnesota feels they have to get ahead of the Giants at six and outbid the Raiders and Broncos if those teams don’t get free agent QBs. I fundamentally disagree with taking McCarthy this high, he’s simply not this type of prospect but beauty is in the eye of the beholder (I’m really hoping the Patriots don’t get sucked into the McCarthy hype). He’s a solid player and with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson (once he’s healthy), McCarthy can be a good player. I just don’t think he’s worth the trade up or the fifth pick overall. The Vikings like it because he’s a leader and he’ll be on a rookie contract while they pay Jefferson, Darrisaw, and try to spend to fix the defense.

6. New York Giants (6-11): Rome Odunze WR Washington

They Giants will seriously consider a QB if one falls here but they won’t make a move to get one. Daniel Jones has an expensive contract and for now they go with him and try to get him help. Last year they team went into the season with TE Darren Waller as their top pass catcher and then about 17 slot receivers they tried to shoehorn into different roles. Odunze is a WR1. He’s an absolute athletic freak at 6’3, 212 lbs., with 4.45 speed and excellent hands. He has ridiculous catch radius that made Michael Penix look good every game. Odunze went to the combine and with Harrison and Malik Nabers sitting out the testing Odunze was the brightest shining star in a group of really great WR performances. I think he passes Nabers as the second WR because he showed outstanding speed and he’s the bigger player. The Giants need him because of that size he offers they simply don’t have. They have a bunch of slot guys and undersized speed guys like Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton. Waller never stays healthy either and Odunze can be the red zone beast they hoped Waller would be. This would also give the Giants one more look at Daniel Jones with a legitimate NFL WR1, he’s never had one of those his entire career. Every year I have a player I absolutely love and this is that guy this year.

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11): Malik Nabers WR LSU

I’m going against all conventional wisdom here and my own personal beliefs a bit as everyone has the Titans drafting an OT like Joe Alt because their LT situation is awful. That makes sense except two things, Brian Callahan is the new head coach and when he was in Cincinnati, they drafted Ja’Marr Chase instead of Penei Sewell. And his new offensive line coach is his dad Bill Callahan, one of the best o-line coaches ever and he works wonders with lesser guys. Last year Bill was the o-line coach in Cleveland where they had massive injury issues at OT and they never missed a beat because he’s awesome. They could sign a lesser free agent (maybe former Bengal Jonah Williams) or draft someone later. At WR, they need desperate help. DeAndre Hopkins is a good intermediate threat and perhaps Brian Callahan can salvage Treylon Burks as an underneath guy, but they have Will Levis at QB, he has a howitzer for an arm and they have no deep threat. Enter Nabers. He’s an electric downfield threat with elite speed and ball tracking skills and he changes the dynamic of the offense, kind of like Ja’Marr Chase did in Cincinnati.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Dallas Turner Edge Alabama

If the Falcons sign Kirk Cousins at QB the offense only needs some WRs beyond Drake London to fill out the roster and the offense should be fine. Brian Thomas Jr, the other WR from LSU is the next top prospect but there is plenty of depth at the position and they don’t have to reach for him here. They do need to address the defense. DE Calais Campbell will be 38 and the band-aid known as Bud Dupree didn’t do much for them. Both those guys are free agents, they need pass rush help. Turner is 6’3 247 lbs. which might make him a little small if he were just a DE but he’s so much more. He can drop in coverage and play any way you like and at the combine he ran 4.46 in the 40, that plus his other testing numbers showed his athleticism is top-notch. He’s an underrated pass rusher because he didn’t put up big numbers because he does so many other things well too, he wasn’t asked to just get after the passer. He would be a great help to the Falcons front seven for new coach Raheem Morris.

9. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Chicago): Joe Alt OT Notre Dame

First the Chargers traded down from 5^th to 11^th with the Vikings and now they jump up two spots to Chicago’s second pick to get ahead of the Jets to select Joe Alt. The Chargers have been trying to fix the RT spot for years and now Jim Harbaugh is running things (with new GM Joe Hortiz) and one thing Harbaugh did well at Michigan, build the offensive line. Alt is a stud LT and whether he moves to RT or they switch Rashawn Slater to the right side, that’s Harbaugh’s decision to make, either way, the tackle situation is fixed. If they want to run the ball better, they need to be better up front, if they want to protect their Herbert investment, they need to be better up front. I don’t think Harbaugh will go for the flashy thing like Brock Bowers, I think he builds in the trenches.

10. New York Jets (7-10): Olu Fashanu OT Penn St.

The Jets are taking an offensive tackle and while the Chargers snake them and take Alt, settling for Fashanu is like settling for a Lamborghini instead of the Ferrari, you’ll be just fine. The Jets need more than one tackle so they can move Alijah Vera-Tucker back inside but they might get David Bakhtiari if the Packers release him. Fashanu can play right or left tackle so he gives them options and he’s a beast. Fashanu has all the physical gifts and athleticism to be an All-Pro he just lacks consistency with his technique and that will come with coaching and reps. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he ended up on a team with a veteran guy like Bakhtiari who knows all the techniques and tricks of the trade.

11. Chicago Bears (TRADE from LA Chargers): Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU

This would be a serious win for Chicago. Thomas would be the perfect addition opposite DJ Moore to give Caleb Williams the best chance to succeed. Thomas is 6’3 209 lbs. with 4.33 speed and the ability go deep on anyone. He has go-go gadget arms to give him a big target radius and while he does drop the occasional pass, he’s pretty reliable down the field. He needs work on intermediate routes but DJ Moore is master at that so he wouldn’t be relied on right away for that and he would have great mentor. Thomas is still raw at a few things but his physical gifts put him way ahead of the curve. In many years, he could have been the WR1 in the draft, he just happens to be in one of the great WR drafts ever and he also was overshadowed at times by one of those guys who was on his own team.

12. Denver Broncos (8-9): Terrion Arnold CB Alabama

The Broncos are taking a massive hit this off season with cutting Russell Wilson and taking a massive cap hit. It’s going to cost them the ability to make some major moves so they need help in the draft and with cheap free agents. I like the idea of them trading for Sam Howell to compete with Stidham at QB whether it happens or not, who knows. They have been patching together the CB position opposite Patrick Surtain II for a couple of years and unfortunately one thing they may have to consider is trading Surtain just to regain some of the draft capital they gave up in the Wilson deal just to rebuild. Either way they need CB help and Arnold is very good. He’s steady, feisty, and versatile, he can play inside and outside. The team had to make moves like cutting Justin Simmons and trading Jerry Jeudy and more hard decisions could be coming. I could see them moving Riley Moss to safety to help fill the void of Simmons and drafting Arnold would make that move a little easier even if Moss hasn’t really shown a lot a CB it would hurt their depth moving him to safety.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9): Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon St.

The Raiders could reach here for a QB like Michael Penix or Bo Nix but they have Aidan O’Connell who started quite a bit last season and I think they are more likely to look for a veteran or they are the team left without someone who gives up a middle round pick for Justin Fields. Whatever direction they go at QB they have to get some help up front. Their center Andre James, RG Greg Van Roten, and RT Jermaine Eluemunor are all free agents. Fuaga was a guy that many thought might have to move inside in the NFL but he went to the combine and showed the athleticism and movement skills to at least get a chance to be an OT early. He could end up inside and he would give the Raiders some flexibility to find the best five up front. He’s a big man who moves very well and he’s going to be a player.

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8): Amarius Mims OT Georgia

They drafted Trevor Penning a couple of years ago to be their new LT and he was so bad last year they moved LG Andrus Peat outside to tackle. Peat played fine but he’s a free agent they may not be able to re-sign and if they do, they need him at guard. RT Ryan Ramczyk will be 30 this year and he’s really expensive so they need to plan for the future at OT. Mims only started eight games at Georgia but they were pretty impressive. He’s 6’8 340 lbs. and he moves like a TE. He’s still so young and very raw but his potential is off the charts. Someone is going to take a chance on him and the Saints need a guy like him. They can give him a chance at LT and hope that they can salvage Penning as a RT to replace Ramczyk at some point. Mims has all the traits you look for in a dominant LT. The one scary part is in three years he could be an All-Pro LT or he could be starting for a team in the UFL, he has a wide range of outcomes.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8): Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo

There is no reason Mitchell should fall this far other than the fact that so many good QBs, WRs, and OTs are available and so many teams early in this draft need those positions. Mitchell looks like he was built in a lab to play CB. He’s 6’0 195 lbs. with long arms, elite speed (4.33), great athletic traits (38 inch vertical) and great ball skills in coverage. He can play man or zone and he showed great loyalty staying at Toledo when just about anyone else in his situation would have transferred from his MAC school to a power program and made some NIL money. The Colts drafted JuJu Brents last season and Mitchell gives them a guy who can be the CB1 and let Brents settle in at CB2. They need help in the secondary and this is a gift in the middle of round one.

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8): Brock Bowers TE Georgia

Bowers is one of the elite prospects in this draft but it feels like he could fall to the middle of round one because teams higher up have more pressing needs. The Seahawks take him because they have a pressing need at TE with Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson both being free agents. They also need to address the gapping hole in the middle of their offensive line with all three interior starters being free agents but Bowers is too good to pass up. It’s easier to find interior offensive linemen later in the draft and in free agency than it is to find a Brock Bowers. Bowers isn’t a typical TE, he’s not the biggest body but he’s an uber-athlete with true playmaking ability that will be welcomed in this offense. He gives them another weapon to go with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8): Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

The Jaguars need to fill plenty of holes but in the secondary they released CB Darious Williams and safety Rayshawn Jenkins and Tre Herndon is a free agent. That leaves Tyson Campbell feeling lonely and Cooper DeJean could be just what they need. He’s a versatile defender who can line up at outside CB opposite Campbell but can also slide inside to cover the slot where Herndon used to play. He also can play some LB in subpackages and safety if need be. He’s also a dynamic punt returner and Jamal Agnew is also a free agent. Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold went to the combine and showed out as athletes while DeJean is still rehabbing from a broken leg and didn’t work out. Out of sight, out of mind happens a lot around the combine but DeJean will re-emerge once his has his personal workouts in early April, he’s one of the best athletes in this draft, regardless of position.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8): JC Latham OT Alabama

The Bengals franchise tagged Tee Higgins and while I don’t think they will sign him long-term I think they did it to bring him back on a one-year deal to give it one more shot with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Higgins on offense. They can’t afford to pay all of them but for now Chase is still on his rookie deal next season so they have one more shot if they can get Burrow healthy. Most of the team returns intact but two major holes are at RT, where Jonah Williams is likely to move on, and DT, where DJ Reader is a free agent. Latham is a plug and play starting RT and that’s what they need. Byron Murphy II is a good DT but not the big-bodied NT you want to replace Reader and that’s easier to find later in the draft. Latham didn’t do the testing at the combine but his drill work was good. He’s huge at 6’6 342 lbs. and he’s got powerful hands. He moves better than he should for a man his size and he’s surprisingly good in pass sets, something Cincinnati will like.

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7): Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

If you like tall, skinny CBs who can really cover but can’t tackle at all, here’s your guy. Wiggins is 6’1 173 lbs. with long arms and elite speed, he ran 4.28 at the combine. He avoids tackling in the run game like the plague but he can stick to his man as well as just about anyone. The Rams defense had Ahkello Witherspoon starting at one spot last year and while he’s not an awful tackler, it’s not what he was known for coming out of college either. Wiggins would upgrade the coverage abilities at CB opposite Cobie Durant and give the Rams a potential CB1. Wiggins is going to struggle against more powerful WRs and that might be an issue for the Rams considering their division has DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel and may have Marvin Harrison Jr. but at this point it’s either Wiggins or Kool-Aid McKinstry and I’m going with Wiggins.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): Troy Fautanu OL Washington

The Steelers are a team looking to compete this year and are likely to address some of the bigger holes on the team in free agency. They are meeting with Russell Wilson to potentially replace Kenny Pickett even if they say he’s just competition. If Wilson goes elsewhere look for Ryan Tannehill to be an option. I think they sign a veteran center to replace Mason Cole, I don’t see them taking a rookie on there. They need another CB but I think the offensive tackle group is better her. Fautanu isn’t the longest or most athletic prospect still on the board (that’s Tyler Guyton) but Fautanu has more experience, is ready to step in right away, and offers flexibility. He could be a RT or he could play guard. He’s probably a better fit assuming the Steelers want to be a run heavy team under Arthur Smith, a pretty solid assumption. Fautanu is a mauler and he could play RT with Broderick Jones flipping to LT to replace Dan Moore and he has the versatility to slide inside if needed at OG.

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6): Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

The Dolphins have massive holes on the interior of their offensive line, the interior of their defensive line, and in the secondary but if they want to keep the offense humming, they should look to replace Terron Armstead at LT. Armstead will be 33 next year and hasn’t had a healthy season in a long time. Guyton is still raw but the Dolphins offensive design can hide some of his flaws while he learns. They can address the interior of the offensive line later and unless new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver just loves Byron Murphy II at DT, Guyton should be the pick.

22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): Jared Verse DE Florida St.

The Eagles love to draft offensive and defensive linemen in the first round, it’s a Howie Roseman staple. They have given Hassan Reddick permission to seek a trade, they are taking calls on Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham is older than Joe Biden (in NFL years anyway). Someone has to rush the passer with this very poor secondary behind them. Verse is really good at a lot of things and not a superstar at anything but he’s going to be a good pro, he could be the next Brandon Graham. This edge rushing class isn’t great, they looked awesome at the combine because there are some excellent athletes, Verse is one of them. However, none of these guys are going to be an 18 sack guys any time soon. Capable, versatile, athletic edge players are great but this is where you want to take these guys in the draft, not near the top 10.

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Byron Murphy II DT Texas

The Texans have this pick from Cleveland and it could be quite valuable if they get a guy as good as Murphy. They have two important free agents on the defensive line in DE Johnathan Greenard and DT Sheldon Rankins and while they can probably afford both, Greenard is the priority. Even if they re-sign Rankins too, he’s 30 and they could use a younger guy to grow with Greenard and Will Anderson up front. Murphy is a quick, penetrating tackle like Rankins and would work well on this line. He keeps the pressure on from the inside to help free up Greenard and Anderson off the edge. The Texans’ defense was far better than anyone expected last year, much like the rest of the team, and Murphy would be a wise investment to keep that momentum going. It doesn’t hurt that GM Nick Caserio comes from New England and head coach DeMeco Ryans comes from San Francisco, two organizations that understand the importance of building a defensive front.

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon

The Cowboys have two big free agents on the offensive line in LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz, there is almost zero chance they re-sign Smith as he’s 33 and hasn’t been the picture of healthy lately. He’s likely to get an expensive one-year deal somewhere else and they can move LG Tyler Smith to LT and be just fine. Powers-Johnson gives them some flexibility. If they don’t re-sign Biadasz, he’s the new starting center and they are good to go. If Biadasz does come back, or they sign a different veteran center, Powers-Johnson just replaces Tyler Smith at LG. He also happens to be a really good center who is only scratching the surface of his talent as he hasn’t even been an offensive lineman his entire college career. They have some other needs but offensive line is an expensive thing to replace in free agency and they need to keep replenishing with youth up front.

25. Baltimore Ravens (TRADE from Green Bay): Laiatu Latu Edge UCLA

The Ravens are a team that has spent some draft capital over the last few years on some highly athletic pass rushers who came with question marks and neither has done much for them. Odafe Oweh is still underwhelming from a production standpoint and David Ojabo hasn’t shown much after his knee injury before his draft. They team had to rely on veteran stop-gaps Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy this last season. They make a move to get ahead of Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Buffalo, all teams that might want pass rushers. Latu is a solid athlete but is a true technician as a pass rusher. He brings a different skill set and the Ravens hope he juices the pass rush more than Oweh and Ojabo have. Green Bay moves down because there isn’t a player they love here.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8): Chop Robinson Edge Penn St.

This is assuming the Buccaneers re-sign Baker Mayfield (it looks like they have a deal). He wants to stay, they want him back, it’s a matter of the sides agreeing to a deal and no other team coming in with some ridiculous offer to steal him. If he leaves, put Michael Penix here because they aren’t turning this team over to Kyle Trask. I think I’ve had Robinson going to Tampa every mock I’ve done and for the same reasons. Shaq Barrett is an aging free agent and not nearly as productive as he once was. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is a flop, and Anthony Nelson is solid rotation guy but not a difference maker. They need pass rush help and while Robinson lacks in other areas, he’s got one nasty first step. He’s super athletic with blazing speed and if Todd Bowles and harness his raw talent, he could make a difference.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

This pick comes down to the best defensive player left on the board and that’s McKinstry. It’s probably a race between Jer’Zhan Newton, the DT from Illinois and McKinstry and honestly the Cardinals can’t go wrong either way. They need defensive help. The defense wasn’t a total catastrophe most thought it would be last year but the lack of talent on that side will catch up with them at some point.

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6): Keon Coleman WR Florida St.

I’m going to be the last rider on the “Keon Coleman is going in the first round” train, I just like him. His 4.6 40 time at the combine may have killed his buzz but I watched him run the gallant drill at that same combine and he ran it faster than every WR, kept his body under control and caught every ball with ease. He has play speed, the ability to use his size to his advantage on jump balls, and he doesn’t back down from anyone. The Bills need a guy like him with Gabe Davis being a free agent they shouldn’t re-sign and Stefon Diggs chronically unhappy. Coleman can complement Diggs’ game or replace him as the WR1 if they decide to move him.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Detroit): Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU

This is me calling my shot on a trade we don’t see very often any more. The Chiefs franchise tagged CB L’Jarius Snead, their All-Pro level CB. They just gave Chris Jones a new huge deal, they want to re-sign Willie Gay Jr and a couple of other free agents, they just don’t have the room for everyone. The Lions tried the bargain bin shopping at CB last season and it didn’t work, they need a stud and Snead is just that. Detroit gives up this pick and their third rounder for Snead and Kansas City drafts a new LT. Suamataia isn’t a finished product but the team won a Super Bowl with Donovan Smith last season so they can survive Suamataia’s growing pains. He’s a cheap alternative for the next five years on his rookie contract and that’s worth it alone. The Chiefs have done well drafting secondary players in later rounds recently so they will look for Snead’s replacement later, or they go shopping for a veteran CB willing to take a bit of a discount because they are looking to win a Super Bowl. The veteran CB market isn’t great but it’s probably a safer bet this year than the veteran OT market.

30. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Green Bay): Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington

This changes if the Raiders sign Russell Wilson but if they strike out on a veteran, they trade their second-round pick (#44) and next year’s first rounder to move up to take Penix. It’s an expensive trade but they are trying to move up to secure him before someone else moves into one of these last spots to get a QB with the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round pick. I’m not a Penix fan but I can see some appeal for the Raiders. He’s a downfield passer who would work well with Devante Adams and he has a higher upside than Aidan O’Connell. The offense would be fun and they could sell some tickets in Vegas. Penix is older since he was a sixth-year senior last season so he can start right away. This would be a very Raiders-like move. Green Bay trades down twice, picks up some capital in this draft, and grabs the Raiders first round pick next year, that’s a win for them for sure.

31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5): Darius Robinson DE Missouri

The 49ers are going to have to start making some tough choices because they have a ton of really expensive players and they can’t afford them all for forever. Arik Armstead is 31 years old and his contract doesn’t have any guarantees after next year. They already have Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave as expensive pieces. Robinson is a bit like Armstead in that he can play both inside and outside depending on the situation. He has excellent size and would be a nice complement to Bosa on the other end. Robinson hasn’t been a household name but the 49ers know what they are doing on the defensive front and Robinson would be a cheap, talented option they can really use right now.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): Adonai Mitchell WR Texas

There are going to be a lot of mock drafts that put Mitchell’s teammate Xavier Worthy at this spot because he broke the combine record in the 40 with a time of 4.21; yes, that’s an insane time. The problem is that while Worthy is ridiculously fast, he’s also 5’11 and 165 lbs. He better be fast. Mitchell however, is 6’2 205 lbs. and still ran 4.34 in the 40. Once you’re under 4.4, the difference in speed isn’t overcoming the three inches and 40 lbs. Mitchell has on Worthy. The Chiefs dumped Marquez Valdes-Scantling because he was expensive and his hands were unreliable. Mitchell can do everything MVS did, he’ll do it for far less money as a rookie, and he can actually catch the ball. Mitchell playing with Mahomes is a scary situation for the rest of the league, Mahomes can help Mitchell realize his full potential while Mitchell unleashes Mahomes deep ball to a guy who can do something with it.

Round 2

33. Carolina Panthers (2-15): Jer’Zhan Newton DT Illinois

The Panthers had a disastrous season with Bryce Young being awful, the offense not being competitive, the offensive line taking a huge step back and the defense trying it’s best but failing because it got no help. Somehow this team doesn’t have a ton of talent yet doesn’t have a ton of cash to spend under the cap. They can get more money with a Brian Burns extension to get him off the franchise tag number and moving some money around on Taylor Moton’s contract but they need a lot of help. They have a ton of free agents on defense and they just need talent. Newton is top-level penetrating DT who can disrupt the backfield consistently. He would help make Brian Burns a more effective pass rusher by being a guy offenses have to worry about. Burns doesn’t have a great pass rushing teammate and Newton can be that guy. This team has a long way to go but taking the most talented players is a good start.

34. New England Patriots: Jordan Morgan OT Arizona

The Patriots have money to spend and should try to keep RT Michael Onwenu and give a decent contract to Kendrick Bourne. Also, try to sign Calvin Ridley if possible but avoid Marquise Brown or Gabe Davis. There are plenty of good WRs in this draft if they don’t get Ridley. Trent Brown can take a hike and while Morgan might be best suited to move inside, I’d give him a try at LT, he can’t be worse than Brown was last year.

35. Arizona Cardinals: T’Vondre Sweat DT Texas

The Cardinals shouldn’t overthink this, they need talent on defense and Sweat is awesome at his job. He’s 6’4 366 lbs. and he is the immovable object in the run game. He makes the edge guys better and the LBs better because teams have to account for him inside.

36. Washington Commanders: Graham Barton OL Duke

If the Commanders take Jayden Daniels it’s going to be imperative they get help up front. They have some money to spend on veterans and Barton is a seasoned guy himself. He also brings positional versatility; his best position is probably going to be center but he can easily play guard and he has the ability to play tackle if needed.

37. Los Angeles Chargers: Roman Wilson WR Michigan

It’s a cheap stunt to give Harbaugh a Wolverine but the Chargers have some tough decisions to make with the salary cap and WR Mike Williams is too expensive for how often he gets hurt. Wilson is the type of WR the team has needed for years, a speedy downfield threat who can threaten over the top. He allows Justin Herbert to go down the field. This won’t be the last Wolverine Harbaugh drafts (there are a ton of them in this draft).

38. Tennessee Titans: Patrick Paul OT Houston

This is why Tennessee passed on an OT in round one. Paul is just over 6’7 330 lbs. and he’s pretty raw, but give this raw lump of clay to offensive line guru Bill Callahan and he can be awesome. Paul is a seriously long, athletic prospect that Callahan will do wonders with.

39. New York Giants: Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia

The Giants let Adoree Jackson go and they need another CB unless they really believe Tre Hawkins can hold up opposite Deonte Banks. Lassiter is a more valuable prospect than any of the interior offensive linemen left here, another position they need to address.

40. Washington Commanders: TJ Tampa CB Iowa St.

While I hate to admit it, Iowa St.’s TJ Tampa is a pretty solid prospect. The Commanders need help in the secondary and I think new head coach Dan Quinn will like Tampa’s size and demeanor more than the two CBs from Missouri who are a little undersized. Quinn already has a skinny CB in Emmanual Forbes to deal with, he’ll get the bet out of Tampa.

41. Green Bay Packers (9-8): Tyler Nubin S Minnesota

The Packers traded down twice in the first round, the second time they moved completely out of the round to pick up Las Vegas’ first rounder next season so this is their first pick. This team doesn’t have a lot of holes to fill even if they cut David Bakhtiari (which they will to get some cap space). The one major area of need is safety. Darnell Savage Jr, Rudy Ford, and Jonathan Owens are all free agents and it’s possible none of them return. There are plenty of free agent safeties to sign but the Packers probably won’t spend all their cap space to sign two new starting safeties so they draft one here. They traded out of round one because no safeties were worth a first-round pick. Nubin is a good prospect and this is the right value for him. He’s a good athlete who relies more on his instincts and preparation than his physical traits although his length is an asset. He’s not a man coverage guy but he’s versatile enough to be interchangeable with the other safety to make changing up the defensive alignment easier. Nubin is exactly what you want in a modern safety.

42. Minnesota Vikings: Adisa Isaac Edge Penn St.

Also known as the other Penn St. defensive end. Isaac was overshadowed by Chop Robinson but he’s a good athlete himself with some skill. The Vikings might have to replace Danielle Hunter and DJ Wonnum in free agency and they certainly have to replace Marcus Davenport considering didn’t actually contribute last season and is also a free agent. Isaac needs some development but he’s the type of player and athlete Brian Flores can use on the edge.

43. Atlanta Falcons: Ladd McConkey WR Georgia

You don’t have to be the biggest or the fastest WR to be effective in the Sean McVay offense that Zac Robinson will be implementing in Atlanta, just ask Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. McConkey will be the perfect complement to Drake London on a team that desperately needs WR help and Kirk Cousins will pepper him with targets. Plus, they already love this guy in Georgia.

44. Green Bay Packers: Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CB Missouri

This is one of the picks the Packers get from the Raiders to move up for Penix. There has been some buzz Rakestraw could be a late first-rounder but with some potential medical questions and some size limitations he falls here. The Packers need a third corner who can mix and match with Jaire Alexander playing outside or in the slot, Rakestraw should be able to do that. I really wanted to give the Packers Mike Sanristil from Michigan, he’s the best slot guy left but he’s below their preferred height at CB, he’s only 5’9.

45. New Orleans Saints: Bo Nix QB Oregon

Anyone who tells you they know what New Orleans is going to do in the draft is lying. So, if anyone is going to take a shot on Bo Nix, why not the Saints? New offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak worked for Kyle Shanahan last year so maybe he can make the offense work for Derek Carr, if not, this team doesn’t have many alternatives. Nix might as well be that guy.

46. Indianapolis Colts: Troy Franklin WR Oregon

Alec Pierce just hasn’t developed as the downfield threat the Colts need opposite Michael Pittman Jr. They are clearly investing in Pittman to be Anthony Richardson’s top target but they need someone who can take advantage of Richardson’s ridiculous arm strength. Franklin is a homerun threat down the field and will stretch the defense to help Pittman work the intermediate area and push safeties away from the line to help the running game.

47. New York Giants: Cooper Beebe OG Kansas St.

The Giants have a big need on the interior of the offensive line. They could draft an OT and try moving Evan Neal inside but I think they give him one more year to try RT and that means taking Beebe here. He’s an immediate starter and a massive upgrade at either guard spot and he has versatility to play either side.

48. Atlanta Falcons: Bralen Trice DE Washington

The Falcons need help on defense and while a CB would be nice, the value at DE is better. They took Dallas Turner in round one as the speed guy, now they take the power edge in Trice. He can replace Calais Campbell and give you a power player you need on one side.

49. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Tavion Sanders TE Texas

The Bengals haven’t prioritized the TE position in their offense but right now they don’t have a TE under contract and with Tyler Boyd a free agent they need a pass catcher inside. Sanders is a better prospect than the primary slot receivers left on the board so they take him here and find ways to use him.

50. Philadelphia Eagles: Zach Frazier C/G West Virginia

This is a reaction to Jason Kelce’s retirement but he’s not his direct replacement necessarily. They drafted Cam Juergens a couple of years ago and he’s been playing RG next to Kelce, he should slide inside. However, Frazier gives them options and both Landon Dickerson, the LG, and Juergens, were centers in college who moved to guard. Howie Roseman loves drafting linemen.

51. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Sanristil DB Michigan

Sanristil won’t fill the CB spot the Steelers need outside opposite Joey Porter Jr. but he’s an excellent nickel player and he feels like a Steelers defender. He isn’t the biggest player but he’s smart, tough, and versatile and that will work well in this defense.

52. Los Angeles Rams: Marshawn Kneeland Edge Western Michigan

He’s a small-school guy but that won’t bother the Rams, they made their defense out of no-name guys last season surrounding Aaron Donald and it worked well. Kneeland isn’t a classic edge rusher but his motor never quits and he’ll help take some focus off Byron Young.

53. Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Lynn Polk WR Washington

I gave Howie Roseman his offensive and defensive linemen so now for something fun. The Eagles have a great WR duo in AJ Brown and Davonta Smith (assuming they can keep Brown happy). They have no other WRs to speak of. Polk was a part of the best three-man WR group in college last year, he knows how to share the football and he’s very talented. Also, he’s really good at catching passes that aren’t perfectly placed, that will make him Jalen Hurts favorite.

54. Cleveland Browns (11-6): Braden Fiske DT Florida St.

The Browns don’t have a first-round pick because they traded it for Deshaun Watson, I think that’s the last time I have to type that sentence. On offense they need everyone to get healthy, that includes Watson, RB Nick Chubb, and pretty much the entire offensive line. The defense needs more help. They lose the three DTs beyond Dalvin Tomlinson on the depth chart so they need some new blood. Fiske was excellent at Florida St. and he had a good combine, the only problem is he’s a little short when it comes to his arms. It makes him not ideal so he falls a little, good news for the Browns. Fiske would be a great complement to Tomlinson, who is a big, powerful run-stuffer in the middle. Fiske is the quick, penetrating tackle type who would take a little focus off of Myles Garrett in the pass rush and give the defensive line a different skill set.

55. Miami Dolphins: Ruke Orhorhoro DT Clemson

I know I should put Xavier Worthy here but it’s just too easy. Both DTs Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis are free agents and even if they get one or both back, they need a rotational piece at least. Orhorhoro isn’t well-known outside the scouting world but he’s an ascending player.

56. Dallas Cowboys: Xavier Worthy WR Texas

The Cowboys need to do some work to open up some cap space and that might mean Brandin Cooks and/or Michael Gallup don’t return. CeeDee Lamb needs someone to take some focus away. I’m not a huge Worthy fan, his lack of size scares me, but his speed will scare defenses. And don’t give me the Tank Dell was small too, Worthy is a different player, he doesn’t win the way Dell does.

57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jonathan Brooks RB Texas

This would be the latest the first RB comes off the board ever, I think. In 2014, Bishop Sankey went 54^th. Brooks is the best RB in this class but he’s coming off an ACL tear. This is a gamble for the Bucs but if they want an upgrade as a ball carrier over Rachaad White, this is their best bet. White is a great pass catcher, he’s not a great runner. Brooks is.

58. Green Bay Packers: Junior Colson LB Michigan

The Packers’ defense is making some schematic changes with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry and that means they need different LBs. Quay Walker is good to go but they may move on from De’Vondre Campbell and Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, and Preston Smith will be playing mostly DE. Colson gives Walker a running mate and gives the Packers defense some options at LB.

59. Houston Texans: Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M

Cooper is a fast, athletic LB who needs some coaching to break him of his bad habit of guessing wrong and taking bad steps. DeMeco Ryans was a stud at LB and he will be an excellent coach for Cooper. With Blake Cashman and Denzel Perryman free agents, the Texans need some bodies at LB.

60. Buffalo Bills: Cole Bishop S Utah

The Bills cut Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is a free agent leaving Taylor Rapp all alone at safety. There are a lot of free agent safeties but the Bills don’t have much money to spend. Bishop is smart, athletic, and comes from Utah where they know how to play defense.

61. Detroit Lions: Jalen McMillan WR Washington

The Lions still have hope Jameson Williams will become the deep threat they drafted him to be. With Amon-Ra St. Brown being the underneath slot guy, they need an upgrade in the intermediate area over Josh Reynolds, hello Jalen McMillen. McMillan did a lot of his damage from the slot at Washington but that’s because he played with Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. He can be more than a slot guy and he would work well with St. Brown.

62. Baltimore Ravens: Kira Amegadjie OT Yale

The Ravens have some interior offensive line needs but Ronnie Stanley isn’t the picture of health at LT and Morgan Moses isn’t getting younger at RT. Amegadjie is light on his feet, has incredibly long arms, and would be a great developmental OT. The Ravens see value here.

63. San Francisco 49ers: Malachi Corley WR Western Kentucky

The 49ers can’t afford to pay everyone and Brandon Aiyuk is in the last year of his contract. Corley is known as the YAC (yards after catch) king and he goes to the team that loves YAC kings and is full of them. Perfect match for the system.

64. Kansas City Chiefs: Andru Phillips CB Kentucky

Phillips can play in a variety of systems and he’s a physical CB so the Chiefs can work with that. If they do trade Snead, they will need someone to add depth behind Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 (if you count the mocking draft)

This is my attempt at a mock draft coming after the Senior Bowl (and Shrine Bowl for that matter) and before the NFL Combine makes everyone start changing their mind because guys look awesomely athletic in shorts and tank tops. The Senior Bowl had some standouts like CB Quinyon Mitchell and WR Roman Wilson and while Mitchell locked down his first-round grade and Wilson likely made himself some second-round money, not too much changed. Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix were the big names at QB and while they were fine, they didn’t change their trajectories at all. Texas DT T’Vondre Sweat was a standout on the defensive line but he’s a specific type of player, a giant interior presence, which limits his NFL fits. Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson was awesome, he’s about as wide as he is tall and he’s a beast. DE Darius Robinson from Missouri probably vaulted himself up the board the most and he’s now a likely first round pick and will have a chance to move up in the round as this process moves forward.

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Caleb Williams QB USC

For now, I’m going to assume the Bears trade Justin Fields and draft Caleb Williams, it’s the most logical conclusion to draw at this point. Resetting at QB gives them time to build around him and resets the rookie QB contract advantage for them. I can’t say I’m in favor of this move, I think Fields was making strides and while Williams is a huge talent, nothing is guaranteed. Williams has physical gifts you can’t teach, that we know for sure. His improvisation skills and off platform throws are incredible, however, in the NFL, your QB must be able to win from the pocket. Williams has a tendency to bail out of a situation quickly and go hero ball without letting the play develop. That works against college defenses quite a bit, it doesn’t work as well against NFL defenses. The Bears could auction this pick off for a quite a return if they don’t want to move on from Fields or trade down one spot with Washington if they prefer Drake Maye. The Commanders would love to get their hands on Williams.

2. Washington Commanders (4-13): Drake Maye QB North Carolina

The Commanders have a new owner, they just hired Dan Quinn as their new head coach, they have a new offensive coordinator, and now they need a new QB. They would love to get Caleb Williams since he is originally from the area. Since he goes first here, they take Drake Maye. Maye is my favorite QB and depending on how things go with Kliff Kingsbury calling the offense, this has the potential to be a good offense quickly. They have talent at the skill positions; WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, RB Brian Robinson, and TE Logan Thomas. They need to get help on the offensive line but this is a good offensive line draft so they can address that later. Maye is a big, athletic QB who doesn’t improvise like Williams but he’s excellent in the pocket and he uses his athleticism to get yards on the ground when he needs to.

3. New England Patriots (4-13): Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio St.

The Patriots have so many needs on the offensive side of the ball they could take Harrison, they could take QB Jayden Daniels, they could take OT Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt, and I could justify them all. If Bill Belichick was still the coach, I would say don’t take Harrison because he would be cursed with the Belichick WR draft curse, that’s not a problem any more. Take the generational WR and start over on offense. I like Daniels but not enough to take him over Harrison, this is the best WR prospect I’ve ever seen. The Patriots will either find a QB later in the draft or grab a veteran free agent and wait for a QB next year (next year’s QB draft class has some good potential). Harrison and DeMario Douglas would be a nice start to rebuilding a WR corps that has sucked since the days of Randy Moss and Wes Welker (apologies to Julian Edelman but one man does not make a WR corps).

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): Malik Nabers WR LSU

The Cardinals absolutely need to address their defensive needs which span the entire defense, however, at this point there aren’t a lot of defensive players worth this pick. If Marvin Harrison Jr. goes before this pick they should look long and hard at trading back and picking up draft capital. If they can’t find a deal they like, Nabers is a great option. He’s not in the class of Harrison, no one is, but he’s an elite playmaker and Marquise Brown is a free agent at WR. Nabers would give them a great alternative to Brown and probably a more consistent performer. Nabers is a deep threat WR with electric speed and game changing ability.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12): Brock Bowers TE Georgia

Now that the Chargers have a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh it’s a little easier understanding where they might go in the draft. I can make a very compelling argument they should take an OT to play opposite Rashawn Slater but I think Harbaugh will figure that piece out later. Harbaugh had some really impressive TEs at Michigan and he really knows how to use them in his offense, there isn’t a more impressive TE than Brock Bowers. Bowers is more than a TE, he’s an offensive weapon you can deploy all over the field. At Georgia, he ran routes inside and out and he ran the ball on end arounds and other plays. Gerald Everett is a free agent and Bowers would be a serious upgrade and take a l of pressure off the other pass catchers.

6. New York Giants (6-11): Jayden Daniels QB LSU

The Giants still have Daniel Jones but last season wasn’t going well even before Jones got hurt and while they owe him a lot of money it may be time to move on if they have a shot at a new QB like Daniels. Daniels had an incredible year at LSU both passing and rushing the ball and won the Heisman. He’s an elite athlete who has a ton of starting experience in college after starting three years at Arizona St. before transferring and starting two more at LSU. He’s 6’4 but he’s just over 200 lbs. so he’s a bit thin and that may be worrisome for a guy who likes to run as much as he does. Daniels has a chance to be the third pick in this draft if New England wants a new QB or if a team really likes him and trades up for him.

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11): Olu Fashanu OT Penn St.

Beauty will be in the eye of the beholder when it comes to the top OT on the board. Fashanu is a big, powerful, athletic freak who played LT at a high level at Penn St. He’s my top OT and he’s an immediate starter and upgrade at LT for the Titans who tried numerous bad ideas to fill the spot last season. There will be teams that like Joe Alt from Notre Dame or JC Latham from Alabama as their top OT but the Titans have to fix the LT spot one way or another. If new head coach Brian Callahan plans to turn Will Levis into a legitimate NFL starting QB he needs to help hm out up front first and foremost. That said, Callahan comes from Cincinnati where they put big playmakers around Joe Burrow before fixing their offensive line so it’s possible, they take Rome Odunze here. I think GM Ran Carthon is more likely to lean towards fixing the offensive line and he’s in charge here.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Dallas Turner Edge Alabama

Raheem Morris is the new head coach of the Falcons and while the team needs a new QB I just don’t think Michael Penix Jr or Bo Nix are worth this high of a pick. The team is going to need some help at pass rusher with Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree both scheduled to be free agents. Turner isn’t an elite speed rusher like you would normally see go this high but he’s an effective player and can bring pressure and play both ways. I think this team looks for a veteran solution at QB before the draft and then looks for a younger guy later. I’m not in favor of Penix or Nix anywhere close to being this high of a pick.

9. Chicago Bears (7-10): Laiatu Latu DE UCLA

I’m going back and forth between Latu at DE or Rome Odunze at WR to pair with their new QB. There is more WR depth in this draft than DE depth so they take Latu to pair with Montez Sweat moving forward. The defense improved immensely once they traded for Sweat and actually had a pass rush. Yannick Ngakoue is a free agent so they need someone opposite Sweat to continue their defensive improvement. Latu is a top-level edge player with elite hand fighting and he’ll be a great complement opposite Sweat.

10. New York Jets (7-10): Joe Alt OT Notre Dame

This would be the dream scenario for the Jets because there is no team that needs an OT more than they do. They were terrible at tackle all season and they have three free agents (Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, and Billy Turner) that they shouldn’t even consider bringing back. They have to protect Aaron Rodgers if they want the offense to work at all. Alt came into the season as a probably first round pick and then played like a top ten guy all season. He’s long, athletic enough and has elite technical skills. Alt would be a day-one starter at LT and seriously improve their offense up front.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10): Terrion Arnold CB Alabama

The Vikings are going to have some major needs if they don’t re-sign some of their own guys in free agency. It seems like they might move on from Kirk Cousins but they need to bring back Danielle Hunter at DE because they have three free agents there and he’s one of their best players. DE is a distinct possibility for this pick but they have to address the secondary, especially CB. Arnold was a late rising prospect during the season as his teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry was the more highly regarded player coming into the year. Arnold has proven he can excel both inside and out and was more impressive than McKinstry throughout the year. He starts on day-one and is probably CB1 on this team pretty quickly.

12. Denver Broncos (8-9): Jared Verse DE Florida St.

The Broncos will be looking for a new QB for Sean Payton but I still don’t like the idea of taking Penix or Nix this high. There are better prospects who can really help this team and they aren’t a QB away from competing. The defense was seriously lacking last year and they should take the best defensive prospect left. That could be a CB but I think it’s Jared Verse. Verse is one of the only impact edge rushers in this class and they need someone to get pressure up front. Verse can also fit multiple fronts as either a DE or and OLB and his versatility will be useful to Denver.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9): JC Latham OT Alabama

Another team that needs a QB but should really pass in favor of building up the roster overall. The Raiders have needs at interior offensive line, interior defensive line, offensive tackle, corner, and QB. Latham is a beast at RT and would pair quite nicely with LT Kolton Miller to make a set of bookends for the offensive line. Antonio Pierce got the job as the full-time head coach and he’s a culture setting type of guy. He was a LB as a player and I think he wants this team to be tougher, especially in the trenches. No one is nastier than Latham and he’ll bring an edge the team hasn’t had up front for quite some time.

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8): Rome Odunze WR Washington

A third team in a row that will probably take a hard look at QB but should ultimately pass. The Saints are in cap hell as usual but they will likely finagle their way out of it but restructuring deals with aging guys like Cameron Jordan, Ryan Ramczyk, Demario Davis, and maybe Derek Carr. One guy they will almost assuredly let walk is WR Michael Thomas. Also, because of their cap situation they might lose guys like OL Andrus Peat and restricted free agent WR Rasheed Shahid. If Thomas and Shahid are gone, Chris Olave will need a new running mate. I can’t believe I have Odunze falling all the way to 14^th but it just happened that way. He’s a freak and a gamebreaker at WR. He’s big, physical, and fast and he and Olave would be incredible together. He should be a top ten pick, he’s a massive steal if he falls this far.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8): Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

The Colts have some important free agents to re-sign like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and CB Kenny Moore and while they have plenty of cap space, they could lose one of them. Pittman seems like he’s major priority because he’s their #1 WR and with Anthony Richardson returning at QB they will want to give him his top playmaker. Even if they re-sign Moore, CB is a still a need, if they don’t, it’s a major need. Moore is best as the nickel corner so they need someone to play opposite JuJu Brents on the outside. Enter Cooper DeJean, the all-everything defensive player. DeJean can play outside corner, he can play the nickel, he can be used as a safety, and he could line up as an undersized coverage LB and he’ll be fine everywhere. Oh, he’s also an electric punt returner. DeJean is flying a bit under the radar at the moment because he missed the end of the year with a broken leg. If he’s healthy and ready to work out at the Combine, this projection might be low. He’s going to show off some elite athleticism that no one knows is coming except those of us who have been watching him for three years.

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8): Jackson Powers-Johnson C/G Oregon

The Seahawks have a new head coach and while he’s a defensive guy it’s pretty obvious where the team is lacking, the interior offensive line. Mike Macdonald was brought in because of his defensive prowess and the Seahawks have some good players to work with on the defensive so they look to solve a major problem on offense first. Once they get Charles Cross and Abe Lucas back healthy at OT, they are fine there but the interior of the offensive line was bad and all three starters are free agents; LG Damien Lewis, C Evan Brown, and RG Phil Haynes. Lewis is probably worth re-signing but the other two have to be replaced. Powers-Johnson is the first guy here who truly improved his draft stock at the Senior Bowl. He’s big, powerful, and showed his elite blocking ability against the best competition at Senior Bowl practices. At 6’3 330 lbs. he’s a big man who moves like a smaller one. He’s an immediate starter and massive upgrade at center or right guard for the Seahawks.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8): Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon St.

The Jaguars have to get better on the offensive line and while they need help on the interior and Fuaga is technically an OT, I think they can make it work. Fuaga was a RT at Oregon and he has great size for the position but he could be used inside. The Jaguars traded for LG Ezra Cleveland at the deadline last year and he’ll be a free agent while RG Brandon Scherff is a possible cap casualty. Given how bad they were on the line last season, they need upgrades. Anton Harrison was a rookie playing RT and Cam Robinson was his usual unreliable self at LT. Fuaga gives them some versatility to find the best five they can put on the field. He may end up at LT, if he can show he can handle it. Or he ends up at RT and Harrison kicks over to LT while Robinson moves inside. Or Fuaga just ends up playing guard until Robinson leaves in a year and then they figure out if he’s an OT or an OG. Either way, he’s an upgrade, and they need an upgrade.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8): Bryan Thomas Jr. WR LSU

The Bengals gave Joe Burrow a massive extension last year and they are going to have to give Ja’Marr Chase a massive extension next season which means somebody isn’t getting paid and that somebody is probably Tee Higgins. Higgins is a WR1 and someone is going to pay him like one and while it’s possible the Bengals franchise tag him to keep him one more year, I think they are too cash poor to do so. Tyler Boyd is also a free agent and I think it’s far more likely they re-sign him and RT Jonah Williams and look for a Higgins replacement in this draft. Oh, and look, here’s one right here. Bryan Thomas might be considered the “other” LSU WR this year but he was just as awesome as Malik Nabers when it comes to production. He’s a big, fast, downfield threat who will keep Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense humming right along.

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7): Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo

The Rams did an excellent job restocking their defense with mid and late round draft picks last season. They also had a handful of veteran castoff free agents who did well like Ahkello Witherspoon at CB. Unfortunately, Witherspoon is a free agent again and while they could bring him back there is no guarantee he plays like he did last season. They need help all over the secondary and Mitchell is a guy who is just getting started. He comes from Toledo so his experience against top competition is limited but he more than held his own at the Senior Bowl, in fact, he thrived. Mitchell has prototypical size and speed, and while he played a lot of zone at Toledo, he can stick to his man in man-to-man coverage. It’s a big bet on potential but that’s what the Rams did with last year’s draft class and Mitchell is an even safer bet.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

I’m tempted to give the Steelers Bo Nix here but taking another QB at 20^th overall in the first round might be a bit much for the Steelers to stomach. I think the team re-signs Mason Rudolph and lets him and Kenny Pickett fight it out to start. One thing that would help this team is to improve the offensive line. They drafted Broderick Jones last year and they need to move him to LT and let him settle in, that would open the RT spot. Tyler Guyton is a long, athletic OT prospect with great upside and just needs some time to develop. He would give them a guy to help solidify the edges and protect whichever QB they go with. Guyton would also give them a chance to improve the run game which is where I’m sure new OC Arthur Smith will go often given his QB situation.

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6): Graham Barton OL Duke

The Dolphins have some holes to fill on their offensive line. All three starters on the inside are free agents to be, and they may not want them back, while LT Terron Armstead may contemplate retirement. While the quick strike nature of the Dolphins’ passing attack helps them up front, they need improvements everywhere but RT. Barton is a highly skilled, experienced player who has played both LT and center and may best be suited to play OG in the NFL. He has limited center experience but he could move there and likely flourish. He’s playable at LT if Armstead retires or per usual, gets injured. Barton’s versatility will get him drafted higher than most people think and the Dolphins need options on the offensive line because they are over the cap and can’t afford to re-sign all their OL free agents, and they shouldn’t want to.

22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

This might be a little out of the ordinary for Eagles GM Howie Roseman as he’s prone to drafting offensive and defensive linemen in the first round more often than secondary players. However, it’s hard to ignore the play of the Eagles secondary last season as James Bradberry’s play dropped off significantly and Darius Slay’s age is starting to show. Wiggins is a tall, lanky CB with great coverage skills and while he’s a bit thin, he’s competitive as hell. He may not be from Georgia’s defense (another Roseman favorite lately), he’s better than Georgia CB Kamari Lassiter.

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

The Texans excellent draft class last season helped them reach the playoffs way sooner than anyone thought and now they have a chance to add to their collection of good young players. This is the last first round pick they get from Cleveland from the Deshaun Watson trade so they should make the most of it. McKinstry came into the year as the top CB prospect but didn’t even finish the year as the top CB prospect on his own team (hello Terrion Arnold). That doesn’t mean he’s bad, it just means he’s not as good as people thought he might be. McKinstry still has great size, he’s an excellent athlete, and he was a multi-year starter at Alabama under Nick Saban. DeMeco Ryans will know everything there is to know about McKinstry and this team has some free agents at CB. While they might re-sign Steven Nelson, he is 31 and he’s not a long-term solution opposite Derek Stingley Jr.

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Zach Frazier C/G West Virginia

There’s always a surprise pick in the first round of the draft and this would be that surprise. Frazier is an excellent center and while centers aren’t always valued this highly, the Cowboys have done something like this before. They once drafted Travis Frederick in round one and while it was a bit shocking at the time, it worked out quite well. Tyler Biadasz is a pending free agent and this would be an upgrade. Frazier is big, powerful, and experienced, everything you want in a starting center. The Cowboys have other needs but they aren’t afraid to spend first-round picks on interior offensive linemen; Frederick, Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Zach Martin.

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8): Amarius Mims OT Georgia

The Packers have a very young offense and this pick would make it even younger. I think there’s a good chance the Packers cut David Bakhtiari in order to save against the cap. Bakhtiari has been injured a lot lately and they could use the cap space. Mims is a freakish athlete with all the size and skills you want in an LT, he just hasn’t played much. He’s a lottery ticket and if he lives up to his potential, he could be one of the best LTs in the game. He only really played RT at Georgia and he didn’t even play that much due to some injuries but he’s young and just scratching the surface.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8): Chop Robinson Edge Penn St.

The Buccaneers won their division and made the playoffs after coming into the year with pretty low expectations. Baker Mayfield played well for them and while he’s a free agent again, the marriage between him and the Bucs is one they are both probably looking to extend. One thing this team has to do better if they want to improve their record and stay ahead in the NFC South is get to the QB. Shaq Barrett is getting older, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t been very productive, and Yaya Diaby was a nice rookie but not a star. Robinson can be an elite edge rusher and should fit in quite well on this defense. He has a quick twitch to him off the line and while he’s not the toughest run defender, that would be less of a worry at OLB instead of being a DE.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Darius Robinson DE Missouri

The Cardinals need defenders and here they get one of the rising players coming out of the Senior Bowl. Robinson played most of his career inside at DT until he had to play on the edge at Missouri this past season. He was a major part of Missouri’s defense being good this year as he took to the edge quite well. Then he went to the Senior Bowl and showed everyone just how athletic he is and at 6’5 and over 290 lbs., he’s an absolute freak. This spot may be too low when it’s all said and done, he could easily climb draft boards when compared to the other DEs in this class. The Cardinals would be lucky to have him.

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6): Keon Coleman WR Florida St.

Gabe Davis is a free agent and the Bills shouldn’t be in a hurry to re-sign him. Stefon Diggs keeps making noise about getting out of Buffalo and after the poor second half of the season he had, they may want to move on too. Coleman is a big, physical target with good speed and penchant for making plays. Josh Allen needs more reliable receivers after Diggs and Davis both had disappointing years. Coleman is getting lost in the shuffle a bit with the four guys above him being monster WR prospects but he has legitimate #1 WR upside, especially if he’s playing with a QB like Josh Allen.

29. Detroit Lions (12-5): Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia

Detroit has two big needs and they are both on defense, CB, and edge rusher. This isn’t a great class to need either one of those two spots this late and Lassiter is the best one left. He’s 6’0 180 lbs. so he’s on the thin side and that might hurt him against physical WRs and in the run game but he can cover. He has scheme versatility because he’s an intelligent player with a lot of experience. Lassiter is probably never going to be a CB1 but he’s a massive upgrade over most of the guys the Lions have. If they want to take a shot at a pass rusher, they would probably be better off taking a DT with some pass rush skills like Jer’Zhan Newton or Byron Murphy II.

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4): Byron Murphy II DT Texas

The Ravens aren’t in the worst shape cap wise but they don’t have a ton of room without some cap gymnastics to move some money around. They do have a ton of guys from their defense who can be free agents including; DL Justin Madubuike, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, LBs Patrick Queen and Kyle Van Noy, and others. Madubuike had a breakout season and he’s priority #1 to re-sign. They don’t have a ton of depth up front and Brent Urban is also a free agent. Murphy was an interior lineman at Texas who was quite good at pushing the pocket. He’s not the biggest guy to be a true DT so he would fit the Ravens odd front well and take some focus off Madubuike. Murphy can push the pocket and still hold up on the edge against the run.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): Adonai Mitchell WR Texas

The Chiefs have two major needs on offense, LT and WR. At WR, they need more than one addition to make a difference, they need to overhaul the unit. Rashee Rice is the only WR they have that they shouldn’t be looking to replace. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and especially Kadarius Toney should all be replaced. Mitchell is 6’4 with an incredible catch radius and the ability to get downfield like Valdes-Scantling, the only difference is he can actually catch. They could look to replace Donovan Smith at LT right here but the WRs offer better value than the OTs still left. Also, they need a couple of WRs so they should grab one here.

32. San Francisco 49ers (12-5): Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU

Suamataia is a big, athletic OT who fits the 49ers play style and they need to look to upgrade at RT over Colton McKivitz. He can also be a nice hedge against Trent Williams’ age. Williams is still the premier LT in football but he’ll be 36 next season and he can’t play forever. Suamataia could handle the LT spot in the future and keep the 49ers offense rolling for years. If there was a great safety available here, that would make sense and so would a nice CB prospect but none of the ones left are better than getting a new OT with some serious upside.

Can you be whelmed?

In the 1999 classic film 10 Things I Hate About You, Gabrielle Union’s character has the surprisingly philosophical line, “I know you can be overwhelmed, and you can be underwhelmed, but can you ever just be whelmed?”. Kirk Ferentz answered that question today with a resounding no, you can’t be whelmed. Ferentz naming Tim Lester his new offensive coordinator is the most whelming thing he could possibly do. I had absolutely no reason to think Ferentz would hire some brilliant young offensive mind to transform his offense. I had every reason to believe he would hire some retread coach that no one else really wanted. My expectations were set exactly where we ended up. And yet, I’m completely underwhelmed.

He hired a former MAC head coach who had been fired from his job over a year ago. A guy who had some very good offenses at Western Michigan but it was at Western Michigan. He had taken over that program from PJ Fleck who had won 11 games and left as a rising star when he left for the Minnesota job, and he promptly made Western Michigan…fine. They topped out at 8-5 and were a good offense but not revolutionary. Lester worked his way up from high school coaching, to Division III schools like Elmhurst College and North Central College. He was a QB coach and then a offensive coordinator for a year at Syracuse, they weren’t great and the head coach got fired. Then he was QB coach under Darrell Hazell at Purdue for two years, Hazell also got fired. Then Western Michigan needed to replace Fleck and Tim Lester was a Western Michigan legend (he’s in their Athletic Hall of Fame) from his playing days, and they hired him. He was good for most of his six-year run and then the wheels came off in 2022, the team went 5-7, and the new athletic director wanted to hire his own guy.

Tim Lester is exactly who we all should have expected Ferentz to hire. Maybe not by name but by coaching profile. There is nothing remarkable about him, there is nothing that makes me think he’s transformational. The one thing he did at Western Michigan that we can hope Ferentz will let him integrate into Iowa’s offense is the run-pass option (RPO) offense (I’ll hold out hope as long as possible). That would get Iowa caught up to around the early 2000’s with their offense. Rich Rodriguez was experimenting with the RPO stuff as a variation of his read-option offense at West Virginia, way back in the day. It’s a common misconception that you need a mobile QB to run the RPO, you need a mobile QB to run the read-option, not the RPO. A mobile QB adds another dimension to an RPO offense but it’s not a requirement. Anyway, Lester ran the RPO stuff pretty heavily at WMU. One thing we can all hope is that he can develop some WRs like he had at WMU. He coached Skyy Moore, who was awesome in college (don’t hold his Kansas City Chiefs tenure against him), Dwayne Eskridge (also not a great pro but a good college WR) and even Corey Crooms (who eventually transferred to Minnesota) and any of them would have been the best WR at Iowa in the last five years. All that said, I still feel underwhelmed, I should be whelmed but I’m not.

This is probably because the other finalist for the job was Kevin Johns, the former offensive coordinator at Duke. Johns’ background would have made for a more likely noticeable change to the offense. I would have preferred him because he spent time as OC at Indiana under Kevin Wilson, at Texas Tech with Kliff Kingsbury, at Memphis under Mike Norvell, and coincidently at Western Michigan for a year under Lester. Wilson, Kingsbury, and Norvell are three of the smartest offensive minds you’ll find when it comes to the passing game and that is something Iowa sorely needs to fix. Johns didn’t run a pure spread offense at Duke like those guys do but he understands how construct a passing game while also using the running game. I’m not saying Lester can’t do it, I just have less clear schematic evidence that he can help Iowa in the passing game. Johns has more power five level experience than Lester and the thing I really liked about Johns is that he’s had good offenses everywhere he’s been while doing it with players at a similar talent level as Iowa. He was never coordinating an offense full of four and five-star offensive skill players yet he always found a way to make the most of what he had. At Indiana, even with a head coach who was a spread guy, the offense used Tevin Coleman and Jordan Howard to the tune of over 1000 yards rushing each of their respective years. At Duke, he had a talented QB who was mobile so he used a lot of RPO and read-option to use Riley Leonard’s athleticism. I don’t know if Lester can take the talent Iowa does have on offense (and there are talented players) and find the best way to use them because he’s really only had success at a place where he was the head coach and he was working with the players he picked for his system.

I hope like hell that Lester has some brilliant ideas for this Iowa offense and hopefully Kirk doesn’t restrict those ideas, like I said there is talent to work with. The running backs are good and really deep. The TE group has two excellent pieces in Luke Lachey and Addison Ostrenga. I actually think Kaleb Brown and Seth Anderson can be good WRs if they are used correctly (feed them the ball like they’re Moore and Eskridge). Hopefully Lester can help Brown, Anderson, and the rest of the young WRs develop into actually useful players. This offensive coordinator hire will define the end of the Kirk Ferentz era. Did his stubbornness stop him from finding greatness at the end of his Iowa career or does Lester improve the offense to point that Iowa can actually compete with the big boys? I don’t get the overwhelming feeling that Lester is going to change Iowa’s fortunes that much and it makes me sad to think Kirk is okay going out with a whimper. I never knew you hope to be whelmed but I’m certainly tired of Iowa’s offense underwhelming me. Good luck coach Lester, you’re going to need it.

The End of an Era

New England Patriots version

I’ll probably be writing one of these for the Iowa Hawkeyes in the next few years and if Kirk Ferentz blows this offensive coordinator hire it will be sooner rather than later. But that’s not what this one is about; this is about Bill Belichick and the Patriots deciding to mutually part ways. I’m glad everyone could be adults about this, put aside contractual commitments, and just realize it’s better for everyone if you shake hands and walk away like gentlemen. Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick have accomplished too much together to have this end acrimoniously. In a few years the Patriots can have Belichick and Brady return to Gillett Stadium to unveil their much-deserved statues outside the stadium and go down in history together, as they should.

The Belichick legacy will be fully intact no matter what people say about him not being able to win without Brady or how the last several years in New England have gone. Great coaches having great QBs isn’t a new phenomenon. Don Shula has the most wins all-time, some of his QBs in his career; Johnny Unitas, Bob Griese (with some Earl Morrell sprinkled in), and Dan Marino. Andy Reid is just behind Belichick, most of his coaching wins were with Donovan McNabb and Patrick Mahomes. Belichick was lucky enough to have Brady for almost 20 years but it wasn’t luck that he chose Brady over Drew Bledsoe after Bledsoe was injured. He recognized there was something special about Brady and even though he had a good QB he didn’t give Bledsoe the job back when he got healthy, he stuck with Brady.

Belichick has always been a defensive genius and there was no clearer example of that than this season when he lost his top pass rusher Matt Judon and his star rookie CB Christian Gonzalez, early in the season and the Patriots defense was still good. Over his 24 years he made plenty of smart personnel decisions (not just picking Brady over Bledsoe), but it was his personnel moves that failed over the last several years that have led to his demise. His inability to find an adequate QB replacement for Brady was the glaring one but it goes deeper than that. His drafts over the past 5-7 years have been pretty brutal. His first-round track record is even worse, he hasn’t hit on a first-round pick since he took Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower in 2012 and he let Jones walk in free agency after four years. CB Christian Gonzalez has a very good chance to break that streak but he’ll be doing it for new head coach.

Here’s Belichick’s first round picks going back to 2013 (there are several years the Patriots didn’t have a first-round pick). OG Cole Strange (’22), taking an OG in round one is dumb, it’s not a premium position, and Strange may have already lost his starting job. QB Mac Jones (’21), benched for Bailey Zappe, doesn’t get much worse. WR N’Keal Harry (’19), drafted over second-round WRs Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, and DK Metcalf. OL Isaiah Wynn and RB Sony Michel (’18), second-round offensive linemen they could have drafted; Braden Smith, James Daniels, Brian O’Neill. A second-round RB they could have had in that draft was Michel’s college teammate Nick Chubb. In 2014 and 2015 they took undersized, injury-prone DTs Dominique Easley and Malcolm Brown, neither one amounted to much because they were often injured, that was predictable. Belichick was always bad at drafting WRs, the Harry pick was egregious and he followed that up with taking Tyquan Thornton two picks before George Pickens two years ago. The 2023 might buck the trend of being complete disasters but only if Jerod Mayo gets the best out of them. His misses in free agency aren’t as bad but the Jonnu Smith signing was a terrible reaction to missing on two third-round TE picks in the same draft a few years earlier when he was trying to replace Rob Gronkowski, it was ugly.

This is all to say that GM Bill Belichick failed head coach Bill Belichick far more than coach Belichick failed the Patriots organization. It’s not hard to understand why things went so bad towards the later years. The Patriots organization has hemorrhaged personnel talent for years. Belichick started his run in New England with Scott Pioli and while Belichick always had final say on personnel moves, he gained more and more power as his personnel executives moved on. He had Pioli, Thomas Dimitroff, Bob Quinn, Jason Licht, Jon Robinson, Nick Caserio, and Dave Ziegler all move on to become NFL GMs, all of them to various levels of success. That’s a serious brain drain when it comes to knowing the draft and free agency and as Belichick aged, he struggled without their counsel. Belichick can still coach and he can still lead but his next employer shouldn’t give him final personnel say and should have a good GM. They also need to insist he finds a new offensive coordinator with a new system he can work with (yes, this is exactly what I’ve been saying about Kirk Ferentz and it’s as true for him as it is for Belichick).

Belichick isn’t done coaching and there will be plenty of teams that want to hire him. If he takes the Washington Commanders job, he should ask Eric Bieniemy to stay (if he doesn’t get a head coaching opportunity), if it’s the Chargers job, he can hope Kellen Moore will stick around. If he goes to Atlanta, he should hire anyone not named Arthur Smith, sign Kirk Cousins as his QB and that team will win 11 games next year (and I’m not a Cousins fan but he can get that offense humming once he’s healthy).

Belichick is the greatest coach of all time and you can’t convince me otherwise. Don Shula was great but he was great when the NFL wasn’t what the NFL is today. Belichick won for two decades during a time when teams couldn’t hoard talent because of the salary cap, the league is designed for parity. And while he had Brady for all those years the offenses they ran varied greatly while Belichick’s defenses were always great. They had the heavy run-based offense early in the Brady run with guys like Corey Dillon and Antowain Smith. There was the high-flying offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker where Brady set passing records. There were the two-TE heavy sets with Rob Gronkowski and the guy we don’t talk about. Belichick cycled through many coordinators on both sides of the ball but won with all of them at one time or another. Charlie Weis, Bill O’Brien, and Josh McDaniels were the offensive coordinators (McDaniels and O’Brien with two different stints). He probably should have branched out a little more in the end. Guys like Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Dean Pees, and Matt Patricia held the defensive coordinator title but others served in the role, like Steve Belichick, Bill’s son, without holding the official title. All of these guys had success under Belichick and yet none of them had real success as head coaches after leaving New England. Jerod Mayo hasn’t held the title of defensive coordinator but he’s now the man tasked with replacing the legend. He’s also the first Belichick protégé who isn’t leaving New England so it will be interesting to see if the organization can support a new young coach and find real success. That leads me to the next part.

The New Era of Patriot football.

Jerod Mayo is a former first-round pick of the Patriots who came into a veteran team and by his second season he was a captain. He played ILB which is a position very important to the leadership and performance of any Belichick defense. Belichick loved having Mayo leading his defense and when Mayo retired, Belichick wanted him to start coaching. The stories told online are how Mayo wanted to branch out and had other interests and pursued those for a few years before Belichick finally convinced him to come back and join the coaching staff. Every story you read about Mayo talks about how people are drawn to him, he’s a natural leader, and everyone respects him. His players love him, the coaching staff loves him (including Steve Belichick) and clearly the Kraft family loves him.

So, as a coach Mayo isn’t the schematic genius Belichick is (at least as far as we know) but he’s learned plenty playing and coaching with Belichick. What he does have is the team culture aspect, the Patriot Way, if you will. Was it Belichick or Brady who set the culture, well it doesn’t matter now because it’s up to Mayo. He’s been around long enough to watch both those guys but the thing is, he isn’t Brady or Belichick. He isn’t the genius curmudgeon Belichick is, he seems to be a far more genial man. Brady was a superstar QB with a model wife and yet had a singular focus on football that ended his marriage before he retired. Mayo is a smart guy who had other pursuits in life that he wanted to try before he ended up coming back to coaching. That’s not Brady-like at all.

Mayo is his own man but we can hope that he brings the same type of leadership and culture to the Patriots like DeMeco Ryans has to the Texans and Dan Campbell has to the Lions. Robert and Jonathan Kraft passed on the opportunity to interview some really strong coaching candidates (Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Eric Bieniemy) to give the job to a guy who wasn’t even their defensive coordinator. I like the hire because it also gives the Patriots the ability to hire a GM who can run the personnel side of things. A guy like Vrabel may have wanted all the power and I’m against that model. Also, hopefully Mayo will look outside the Patriot/Belichick circle to find a new offensive coordinator. I would really love to see some new blood on that side of the ball to go with a new QB and while I’m still hoping for Drake Maye, I’ll settle for Jayden Daniels. It’s a new era in New England. A new head coach, hopefully a new offensive coordinator, a new GM (even if it’s someone from within their own front office like Elliot Wolf), and a new QB. All of them ready to start the next 20 year run with six more Super Bowl titles. The Brady Way, The Belichick Way, The Mayo Way? Let’s just go back to calling it the Patriot Way.

My Too Early Mocking Draft

This mock draft is going to be a little different, on purpose. I’m not going with the exact current draft order because there are several weeks left in the season and it’s going to change. This draft is more about general position and what teams could do, should do, will do, and what some teams just won’t be able to stop themselves from doing.

A couple of notes about this draft; overall it’s not all that strong. Somewhere around pick 25 it starts to tail off. The QB class is top heavy with a drop off after the third guy (Jayden Daniels). The OT and WR groups are really strong and some teams are really going to get some steals. I’m probably not as high on the CB class as others, yet for some reason I found myself putting quite a few in round one, so many teams need help there. RB, LB, and safety might have some nice players in rounds 2-5 but I don’t think any of them are sniffing the first round. Also, interior offensive line is pretty weak unless you count some of the potential OTs moving inside, I did that in this mock draft.

I’m mocking the mock draft model for now, everyone else is taking it too seriously and that’s no fun. So, let’s have some fun with it.

1. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Chicago): Caleb Williams QB USC

The Bears are going to get the first pick from Carolina because the Panthers are a dumpster fire and they have almost locked in the first pick. I contend Ryan Poles wants to be good sooner rather than later and with Matt Eberflus getting the Bears’ defense playing better and Justin Fields looking good, Poles trades this pick for a huge ransom. He needs to find an owner dumb enough to offer a huge sum and look right there, it’s Mark Davis with his hand in the air. The Raiders need a splash to be relevant in Las Vegas and unless he can hire Bill Belichick, Lincoln Riley, or Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, this is the move. The Raiders should be picking somewhere around eight in this draft so let’s say three first rounders and two second rounders and the Bears can’t say no. Williams has star potential and if he goes to the Raiders, he’s probably going to be a bust. It’s not his fault, it’s a Raiders thing. I like Williams, I don’t love him like others do. I see the bust potential if he’s not in a great situation and the Raiders have a long road to being even a good situation.

2. New England Patriots: Drake Maye QB North Carolina

Bill Belichick says goodbye to New England and Robert Kraft starts over with a new head coach (Ben Johnson, Bobby Slowik, it’s not going to be Mike Vrabel). The new coach keeps Jerod Mayo and makes him the defensive coordinator because the defense is fine. He drafts a new franchise QB in Drake Maye, the tall, athletic, rocket-armed star from North Carolina. Then the team cuts every WR not named Pop Douglas and signs Tee Higgins to a massive contract. When your team sucks at drafting WRs (I blame Belichick but let’s not take a chance) you just have to sign the best one on the market. I’ll fix the LT spot a little later. Sorry, that was a lot. Maye is this year’s CJ Stroud. Teams are going to start trying to talk themselves out of him, they are going to nitpick every little thing. Stop overthinking it, this guy is a star. Get him a real offensive mind to put it all together, and replace the “weapons” (I use that term loosely in reference to the Patriots skill guys), and Maye is off and running.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio St.

An interesting comparison for Marvin Harrison Jr is Larry Fitzgerald. It’s a worthy comparison but Harrison might have a higher ceiling. Fitzgerald is one of the greats, Harrison has that level in him. He has all the size you need but he also has all the skills and refinement of being Marvin Harrison’s kid. The Cardinals have a small WR group and by that, I mean they’re all short, Harrison is legitimately 6’3. I think the Cardinals want to see what they really have in Kyler Murray in their new offense and giving him Harrison would give him a better chance to succeed. He is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson and surprisingly, the Cardinals offense under first-year coordinator Drew Petzing is actually pretty solid.

4. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels QB LSU

Daniels just won the Heisman Trophy but he hasn’t really been talked about as a top-level prospect until recently. He has all the skills you like and the only red flag is the fact that he’s a little skinny, so was Lamar Jackson. A better comparison might be Deshaun Watson without the off-field issues. Anthony Richardson made a meteoric rise last year before the draft and went fourth overall, Daniels isn’t quite the freak athletically that Richardson was but he was a far more productive college player. Sam Howell did a solid job in Washington but this team will likely have a new coach (hopefully just a promoted Eric Bieniemy) and the new owner might like a new face of the franchise. Daniels could really unlock the skill position talent in Washington (imagine Terry McLaurin with a good QB). Daniels is going to go in the top five, book it. With hall that said, they should draft Olu Fashanu, the OT from Penn St. Their line was atrocious and any new QB is going to get killed. Howell might have actually been pretty good if he hadn’t been sacked every third play.

5. Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers WR LSU

This seems a bit high for the second WR to come off the board but Nabers is a stud. The Chargers finally fired Brandon Staley and will look different next year for sure. They have a bloated cap (probably the reason Tom Telesco was fired as GM too), and some tough decision will need to be made. Both edge rushers, Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, have bloated cap figures as do WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Mack and Allen have both shown that even at an advancing age, they are still good while Bosa and Williams have proven they are simply injury prone. Nabers would give the Chargers a perfect complement to Allen, he has electric downfield skills and they sorely need that. Whoever is coaching the Chargers offense next season has to figure out how to unleash Justin Herbert’s arm. It’s absolutely insane how much he dumps the ball off and they never go downfield, Nabers has that skill. They are so underutilizing Herbert it’s hard to watch.

6. New York Jets: Olu Fashanu OT Penn St.

I know, the Bears are right around this pick but I think they end up with more wins so they fall a bit, the Jets are still terrible and they aren’t winning much to finish the year. I would hate to see this happen as Fashanu is a fantastic OT and a day one NFL starter at LT. That’s exactly what the Jets need to protect Aaron Rodgers better next season. Fashanu is everything you look for in a LT and he makes this offense better. He has size, strength, length, agility, and toughness, he’s a future All-Pro. My only issue with Fashanu going at six is that it seems a little too low but if Daniels makes the rise I think he will, someone has to fall. If the Patriots fall out of the top three, and I pray Belichick doesn’t screw that up, this is the guy I want, he’s awesome.

7. Chicago Bears (TRADE from Las Vegas): Keon Coleman WR Florida St.

This isn’t the Bears pick, it’s the pick they get from Vegas for the first pick overall (well, one of them anyway). The Bears stick with Fields and after watching DJ Moore have a positive effect on him, they look to double down. Coleman is a freak at 6’3 215 lbs. and is the perfect complement to Moore. He’s the big, contested catch guy who will make Fields that much more effective and he can be dangerous in the red zone. The Bears have needs on defense and even on the offensive line but this draft has some serious WR talent and they shouldn’t pass it up, those other spots can be addressed later.

8. New York Giants: Brock Bowers TE Georgia

Bowers is a TE in name only, he’s just a massively talented playmaker in the passing game and he’s everything the Giants thought they were getting when they traded for Darren Waller. Unfortunately for them, Waller just doesn’t play often enough. They should probably look at a big WR instead of going with a roster full of slot guys again but unless they love Rome Odunze (I wouldn’t blame them, I think he’s awesome), they should just take Bowers. They could draft a new RT to replace Evan Neal so they can try him inside at OG but the best RT on the board is probably JC Latham and that’s another Alabama OT like Neal, probably a pass for the Giants. Bowers shouldn’t fall this far anyway so they give Tommy DeVitto a playmaker with some size to work with (sorry, I couldn’t resist, they are totally going with DeVitto next year at QB).

9. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt OT Notre Dame

The Titans spent money on Andre Dillard last year to be their LT, and he’s been the worst starting LT in football (the Titans are the only people on the planet who didn’t see that coming). They have replaced him with rookie sixth-round pick Jaelyn Duncan, and while I liked Duncan last year in the draft, he’s no Joe Alt. Alt has leveled-up this year at Notre Dame and if he’s still on the board here for Tennessee, they should sprint to the podium to turn in his name. They’ve been terrible at LT since Taylor Lewan’s knee injury that essentially ended his career. They need a cornerstone up front, Alt might not be flashy, but he’s going to be a starting LT in the NFL for a decade.

10. Seattle Seahawks: JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

I said this was going to be fun. The Seahawks haven’t been much fun to watch this year as Geno Smith hasn’t been great and now, he’s been hurt and they have Drew Lock at QB. They hilariously beat the Eagles last week but I’m not buying them as being able to continue that play. Smith got an extension last year but it wasn’t a long one and this team needs to think long-term about it’s QB position. McCarthy isn’t a finished product but he’s a talented player and he could come in and give them a viable option to replace or backup Geno. If Geno plays better next year, McCarthy can sit and learn, if Geno is bad, McCarthy takes over. Maybe the Seahawks won’t spend a first round pick on a QB, but they should.

11. Chicago Bears: Dallas Turner DE Alabama

This is about where I expect the Bears’ pick to actually end up. They got their DJ Moore complement with the first pick and now they get a guy to help Montez Sweat get pressure on opposing QBs. Turner doesn’t have the profile his former Alabama teammate Will Anderson had last year but he’s a productive pass rusher who would benefit playing opposite Sweat. The Bears defense got a lot better once Sweat arrived and having two guys really bringing the heat would help the secondary more than anything else they can do here. There are no safeties to take and I think improving the pass rush is the smarter play than over drafting a CB.

12. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

Houston has been a great story so far this year but they lost Tank Dell and now CJ Stroud is out with a concussion. This team could struggle to end the year if CJ Stroud doesn’t get better fast. Their pick goes to Arizona after last year’s trade between the teams. Any defender will do on the defensive line or the secondary. Wiggins will be the top CB on some teams’ boards and probably third or forth on others. There is no consensus top CB pick. Wiggins is long, lean, and feisty. He has great cover skills but he’s allergic to tackling. He’s a boom or bust CB pick and that feels like an Arizona kind of pick.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jared Verse Edge Rusher Florida St.

The Bucs could win the NFC South or they could fade late and end up pick around this spot, I’ll bet on Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield to get them here. They should be making a play for a new QB but for some reason I feel like they will go with Baker again, some teams like being just below average. The defense is generally their strength but they need some new blood at LB. ILBs aren’t worth the 13^th pick but they could also use some pass rush help. Shaq Barrett isn’t getting any younger, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka isn’t great, and Verse could be a OLB in their system. Verse is a talented pass rusher who isn’t the biggest guy but he’s relentless and can get to the QB.

14. Atlanta Falcons: Laiatu Latu DE UCLA

The Falcons need a QB but they are playing themselves out of a first round QB. I suppose it’s possible they reach for Bo Nix but I’m more inclined to think they look for a veteran or try for a trade. One other place they need help is the defensive line. Calais Campbell will be a free agent and he’s already 37, David Onyemata is 31, and Grady Jarrett is 30 and recovering from a torn ACL. Latu is a versatile player with good size and will be a good edge player in whatever system he ends up in. Getting younger and more talented in the defensive front seven is never a bad idea.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: JC Latham OT Alabama

The Steelers are another team that needs a new QB but are not in a position to get one here in the draft. They will likely be looking for a veteran stop-gap QB, think Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill. One thing they have to fix for good no matter who the QB is, the offensive line. They drafted Broderick Jones in round one last year and then decided Dan Moore Jr was the better option at LT (they are wrong), Jones is playing RT for them now. They have to just put Jones at LT and let him just take his lumps while he learns. The best thing to help that is draft Latham, he’s a day one starting RT. He’s beast and he’ll stabilize the right side. Latham should go higher than this but this is the fun mock draft so he’s still here.

16. Denver Broncos: Cooper DeJean CB Iowa

The Broncos secondary needs plenty of help. It has been a wasteland opposite Patrick Surtain II at CB, S Kareem Jackson has been suspended twice because he doesn’t know how to legally hit people anymore (he’s also in his late 30s). K’Waun Williams and Riley Moss have been injured and Fabian Moreau is just a guy. DeJean is an athletic freak who can play outside CB, he can play in the slot, he could line up at safety if Caden Sterns never gets healthy, and he can play dime LB if needed. His versatility allows others to find their best spot, perhaps he takes the outside CB spot and the Broncos move Moss to safety to replace Jackson. The Broncos clearly scouted the Iowa defensive backs last year considering they drafted Moss in round three. DeJean is a whole other level. He would pair with Surtain to make a dynamic CB duo and those teams that have been avoiding Surtain all year, will have to rethink their strategy.

17. Minnesota Vikings: Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo

With the exception of Cooper DeJean, I don’t particularly love any of the top-rated CBs in this draft. Wiggins doesn’t tackle, Kool-Aid McKinstry has had some rough games this year, and Terrion Arnold is fine but I haven’t seen him do it enough. Mitchell is the small-school guy who could come flying up the draft boards as teams realize this CB class isn’t great. This guy has all the physical tools you look for, he has great instincts for the position, and most of his weaknesses are just issues with his technique, something you can coach him on. The Vikings secondary is pretty rough and they need CB help. This is a projection but I’m comfortable with it, he’s a good player. I do wonder if the Vikings are willing to go into next season with Jaren Hall at QB1 or whether they want to get a veteran or if they pull the trigger on a guy like Bo Nix.

18. Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold CB Alabama

While I’m not a big fan of the CBs in this draft it’s not a particularly strong draft overall and teams will look to fill important positions, the Colts need CB help desperately. Arnold is playing better this season than his more ballyhooed teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry but it could be either one here. The Colts took JuJu Brents in round two last season and he’s starting at one spot but they don’t have great option outside opposite him. They also need depth because their nickel corner Kenny Moore will be a free agent. Arnold seems like a guy getting better the more he plays, that’s a good sign.

19. Los Angeles Rams: Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

Last year there were four straight WRs taken in the early 20’s, this year we get four straight CBs taken just before the 20’s. McKinstry hasn’t had a banner year but he still has tons of potential and the Rams secondary needs help. They really could use anyone on the defensive side of the ball and I like McKinstry better than the pass rushers and defensive tackles here. There are no safeties worth taking in the round one. The Rams’ defense isn’t terrible considering it’s Aaron Donald and ten guys no one has ever heard of. At least McKinstry has a memorable name.

20. New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga OL Oregon St.

I seriously considered putting Bo Nix here, that would be fun. However, this team has so much money tied up in Derek Carr I’m not sure they will spend a first-round pick on a QB and Nix isn’t quite good enough to reach this far. The Saints have both Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz as pending free agents, that’s both of their normal starting guards. Fuaga played RT at Oregon St but most teams project him inside. He would also be a bit of a hedge as a LT fill-in for Trevor Penning who hasn’t been working out at that position. The Saints like to invest in their lines and Fuaga seems like a Saints pick.

21. Green Bay Packers: Amarius Mims OT Georgia

The Packers offense is full of young guys and here they get even younger. David Bakhtiari can’t stay healthy and my guess is he’s a New York Jet next year. Rasheed Walker has been holding down the LT spot but he’s not great. Yosh Nijman and Jon Runyan are free agents after the season so the team needs to replenish the offensive line. Mims is all potential and not much production but his potential is incredible. I’m including Mims in this draft but I’m not completely convinced he comes out because he’s been hurt a lot, this is a stacked OT draft, and if he returns to Georgia and has a great year, he’s a top five pick next year. If he’s here, the Packers will bet on his potential.

22. Cincinnati Bengals: Rome Odunze WR Washington

The Bengals are trying to hold on with Jake Browning filling in for Joe Burrow at QB and I think they make the playoffs. They have some holes on defense but this off season both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are free agents and with Burrow’s major contract and Ja’Marr Chase’s contract coming up, they can’t afford everyone. Higgins is going to get major money so they need to replace him outside opposite Chase. Odunze is a big, physical WR in the mold of Higgins and while he won’t be as refined as Higgins is at this point, his potential is enormous. Odunze is my favorite WR in this draft not named Marvin Harrison Jr., I always have one. He’s going to be a beast; his catch radius has no bounds. Joe Burrow will love him and the rest of the AFC will hate facing him. You can’t double cover Chase and Odunze, good luck with that.

23. Buffalo Bills: Chop Robinson DE Penn St.

The Bills need CB help but I don’t like any more CBs for this first round, they also will need some edge help. Von Miller will be 35, Leonard Floyd will be 32, and AJ Epenesa will be a free agent, so they need someone to play on the end. Robinson is a little undersized but he knows how to get to the QB. They have Greg Rousseau and he’s a big end so they can use Robinson on the other side. If the Bills actually make the playoffs, they might be picking later than this, they will be a tough out.

24. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Jer’Zhan Newton DT Illinois

The Texans traded their first-round pick to Arizona last year in the draft to move up and take Will Anderson, that’s worked out very well. They still have this first-round pick from Cleveland from the Deshaun Watson trade, sorry Cleveland. The Texans are doing far better than anyone thought and have some really good young players to build around. Their biggest needs are not positions you typically target in the round one, interior offensive line and linebackers. So, they go for the best DT in the draft. Newton is a problem on the interior, he’s undersized but incredibly explosive, and he’s a handful. They’ve had great success with Sheldon Rankins filling that role this year and while he’s a free agent they should be able to re-sign, why not double up there. DeMeco Ryans knows that having a deep, talented defensive line is a great way to build a defense.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio St.

This is another team that has needs at positions they probably won’t address in round one; interior offensive line and safety. WR doesn’t seem like a need but it is. Calvin Ridley isn’t signed beyond the season and even if they do extend him (I expect they will) he’s been inconsistent. Zay Jones has also been inconsistent and his contract can be voided. Christian Kirk in on IR. Trevor Lawrence needs weapons and Egbuka is a serious talent. He was rightfully overshadowed by Marvin Harrison Jr. at Ohio St. but he’s a really good player and he could replace Zay Jones. He has the ability to become the Jags top WR if Ridley struggles.

26. Detroit Lions: Denzel Burke CB Ohio St.

The Lions tried to address their secondary in free agency last year but Emmanuel Moseley and CJ Gardner Johnson have both been injured and are on IR. Cam Sutton has been okay but Jerry Jacobs has struggled. They need CB help and Burke is a solid player. He’s not flashy but that fits Dan Campbell’s team just fine. They need competent players for their secondary and Burke shouldn’t be their only pick back there. If they don’t go CB, they have to go defensive line, either way, they have to get better on defense.

27. Kansas City Chiefs: Troy Franklin WR Oregon

The Chiefs have to stop thinking Patrick Mahomes can make just any WR look good, he does need them to have some level of talent and it’s lacking right now. They need someone who can take the top off the defense and catch the ball, that’s not Marquez Valdes-Scantling, it is Troy Franklin. Franklin is a big play waiting to happen and he will take a lot of pressure off of Travis Kelce and give Mahomes a true talent at WR. He doesn’t play the game like Tyreek Hill but with Mahomes as his QB he might have a similar impact on this offense.

28. New England Patriots (TRADE from Philadelphia): Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

The Eagles defense needs help in the secondary but the Eagles don’t like the guys left here so they trade down as New England comes back up into round one to get the LT they need. The Patriots need to cut bait on Trent Brown and move on. Guyton is a young, athletic tackle who can grow with some of the other young guys on the offensive line and with new QB Drake Maye. He’s not a finished product but he’s worth the move up to add a LT of the future.

29. Miami Dolphins: Jordan Morgan OT Arizona

The Dolphins offense is a machine that just churns out big play after big play but they aren’t perfect up front. Terron Armstead has had a long and distinguished career but he’s going to be 33 years old and simply doesn’t stay healthy often enough. Morgan is one of several OTs who could go at the end of round one because he’s good enough to start early in his career. There are some concerns about him holding up on the edge but the Dolphins offense moves so quickly, I think they would mitigate that concern.

30. Dallas Cowboys: JT Tuimoloau DE Ohio St.

The Cowboys’ defense has been very good under Dan Quinn but they could get thin fast at DE. DeMarcus Lawrence is 32 and isn’t nearly as effective as he once was. Dorace Armstrong is going to be a free agent and they probably don’t want to spend a lot to keep him. Dante Fowler Jr is also aging. Tuimoloau isn’t a bendy speed rusher off the edge but they have Micah Parsons for that. What he does really well is hold the end, plays smart, and never quits. He’s not going to make the splash plays but he’s going to do all the things that allow Parsons to make the splash plays.

31. Baltimore Ravens: Troy Fautanu OL Washington

The Ravens have an aging Kevin Zeitler at RG who will be a free agent after the season and their LG spot hasn’t been great this season with no clear plan moving forward there. Fautanu played LT at Washington but most teams project him inside at guard. He could take either spot and he’s also a solid choice as a backup option to Ronnie Stanley at LT, he’s not getting any younger and has had health issues.

32. San Francisco 49ers: Graham Barton OL Duke

Barton is another guy who plays LT in college but will move inside in the pros. The real question is does he move to guard or center. He might be the best center prospect in this draft, he played the position early in his career and he has the athleticism to excel there. The 49ers seem satisfied with Jake Brendel at center but their guard play hasn’t been good. Barton could replace either Aaron Banks or Spencer Burford. Barton may also be a sneaky hedge against Colton McKivitz at RT. He brings so much talent and versatility it’s almost unfair a team as good as the 49ers might get him.

I tried desperately to find a place for Bo Nix in this mock draft. I don’t actually think Nix is a first-round QB talent but he’s good and he might get pushed up because he’s a QB. There are teams that could really use him and I wouldn’t be surprised if some team trades into the end of the round one to pick him. I would be very surprised if Michael Penix Jr goes anywhere in round one or round two for that matter. He was a highly productive QB at Washington but Kalen DeBoer’s offense and the ridiculous WR group they had made him look better than he is. The two other WRs from Washington (other than Rome Odunze) Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk are guys who could sneak into round one and should for sure go in round two.

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