MVP Award

Favorites: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Josh Allen, QB CJ Stroud, QB Joe Burrow, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Tyreek Hill

Dark horses: QB Matt Stafford and QB Jordan Love

We all know this award is really a QB award so I’m just including McCaffrey and Hill because they are the only two other players who could reasonably win it.  Defensive players never get this award so I’m not going there.  Lamar Jackson won it last year so the bar is probably too high for him to win it again.  Mahomes is always a good choice because he’s the best player in the league and this year they actually got him some WR help.  Stroud is the new shiny object and he should have the stats to back up a run at the award.  Joe Burrow could also make a run at the award if he returns to form and leads the Bengals back to the playoffs.  I think Stafford is in for a monster year as he tries to keep the Rams competitive without a great defense.  Love keeps the Packers right on the Lions heels all season long.  If a long playoff run counted towards MVP votes he could win but the voting happens at the end of the regular season so getting the Packers deep into the playoffs doesn’t help his case. 

My Pick:  QB Josh Allen

It seems strange considering he lost his best WR in Stefon Diggs but I think that will work in his favor.  A lot of people are picking the Bills to fall off this season and if Allen plays to his usual level, he can elevate this team.  He makes them better than they should be and wins the AFC East again.  He may finally get his due. 

Offensive Player of the Year

Favorites:  RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Tyreek Hill, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB Breece Hall, RB Bijan Robinson, RB Saquon Barkley

Dark horse:  WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

This award usually goes to the best non-QB offensive player so McCaffrey and Hill should lead the pack.  CeeDee Lamb is going to get peppered with targets in Dallas as they have no one else to count on.  Amon-Ra St. Brown should finally get his recognition for being an elite WR.  Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are going to be work horse RBs for their teams and they are extremely talented.  Barkley is going to go from running behind one of the worst offensive lines ever to one the best in the league.  Harrison is that good.  People are simply not recognizing he could be a top 5 WR in the league this year. 

My Pick:  WR Tyreek Hill

He’s still the most dangerous WR in the league and while he fell off a bit at the end of last season, I think he can hold on this year. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Favorites: DE Myles Garrett, DE Nick Bosa, OLB TJ Watt, OLB Micah Parsons, DE Danielle Hunter, DE Maxx Crosby

Dark horse:  S Kyle Hamilton

This award has recently been dominated by the guys leading the league in sacks.  Myles Garrett is the reigning DPOY and he’s not a bad bet to be that again.  Bosa won it before him so don’t count him out.  Watt is due to win one of these as he’s always near the top of the sack list.  Parsons has a chance to be a 20-sack guy if things go right so don’t count him out.  Danielle Hunter has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL for awhile and now he plays for a team that should be a Super Bowl contender, he should get noticed now.  Maxx Crosby is one of the most under appreciated players in the league, he’s an elite pass rusher on a terrible defense.  Kyle Hamilton could be the one guy who breaks through the pass rusher gauntlet to win this thing.  He’s one of the most diverse and dynamic defenders in the NFL. 

My Pick: OLB TJ Watt

I think Watt finally breaks through.  He’s an elite pass rusher with name recognition and if he gets 18 or more sacks this year, he gets his turn with the award. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Favorites: QB Caleb William, QB Jayden Daniels, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Malik Nabers, WR Rome Odunze, TE Brock Bowers

Dark horses: WR Keon Coleman, WR Jalen McMillan

There aren’t any rookie RBs to really consider here since Jonathan Brooks isn’t even playing yet and Trey Benson is starting out backing up James Connor.  TE Brock Bowers is a true talent but rookie TEs can struggle, TEs don’t win a lot of awards, Bowers is on a bad team, and his QB isn’t great.  Caleb Williams should have an excellent year but he may not get as much credit because of how good the offense will be around him.  Daniels is going to put up some crazy stats but the Commanders won’t be good enough for him to get real consideration.  Nabers will have some highlights but Daniel Jones is his QB, don’t ask too much from him.  Odunze is a real talent but DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are going to eat into his production.  It’s Harrison’s award to lose.  He’s the WR1 on a team with a legitimate QB and he’s going to feast on targets.  Coleman might become a favorite target of Josh Allen, that’s good for him.  McMillan is a stud but he has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin ahead of him in the pecking order.  He’s going to catch plenty of passes but may not have the highlights to get the attention.

My Pick: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

I’m not stupid, I’m not picking against the best WR prospect since Julio Jones.  Harrison is a freak and he’s going to catch 100 passes for Arizona. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Favorites:  DE Laiatu Latu, DT Byron Murphy II, CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB Terrion Arnold, DE Jared Verse, OLB Dallas Turner

Dark horse: DB Cooper DeJean

Latu, Verse, and Turner should be solid pass rushers who will really play an important role for each of their respective teams.  Latu is probably the best outside pass rusher on the Colts.  Verse will be an important piece of the Rams plan to replace Aaron Donald’s production. And Turner is the perfect player for Brian Flores’ defense in Minnesota.  Byron Murphy II isn’t a starter just yet in Seattle but Mike Macdonald won’t forget to use him.  Quinyon Mitchell has a chance to play a lot in Philly and might get thrown at a lot with Darius Slay opposite him.  Arnold will get the same treatment as a rookie opposite Carlton Davis III in Detroit.  DeJean got a late start in camp with an injury but he’s going to play all over the backend of the Eagles defense and Vic Fangio will find ways to use him eventually. 

My Pick: CB Quinyon Mitchell

I’ve been a fan of this guy since last year when he was at Toledo.  The game isn’t too big for him even though he’s taking a major step up in competition.  He’s already the starting CB2 in Philly and I think he’ll be better than Darius Slay sooner rather than later. 

NFL Playoff Predictions

NFC Division Winners

Philadelphia

Detroit

Atlanta

San Francisco

Wildcards

Green Bay

LA Rams

Chicago

AFC Division Winners

Kansas City

Buffalo

Cincinnati

Houston

Wildcards

Baltimore

NY Jets

Cleveland

NFC Championship Game

Detroit vs Green Bay

AFC Championship Game

Kansas City vs Houston

Super Bowl

Kansas City vs. Detroit

Super Bowl Champion

Kansas City-I’m not betting against this team until someone proves they can beat Mahomes in the playoffs.  A three-peat has never happened in the Super Bowl era.  Mahomes and Reid pull it off. 

Hott Reads and Random Thoughts

Quarterback Reads

The Patriots are starting the season with Jacoby Brissett at QB and most people think Drake Maye will take over around week 5.  The first four weeks are very tough.  I don’t think Brissett lasts that long behind the Patriots terrible offensive line.  I think Maye starts week 3 against the Jets.  Not an ideal opponent to start a rookie, the Jets defense is really good. I think they have to play Maye by then.  Baptism by fire.  Good luck Drake.

The Saints start the season against the Panthers and then have five tough games in a row: Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, and Bucs.  If they start 1-5 I think they go to Spencer Rattler at QB for week seven against the Broncos at home.  Although, if they lose to the Panthers week 1, it may happen sooner.  I have no faith in Derek Carr. 

Russell Wilson is questionable for Week 1 of the season.  If Justin Fields leads the Steelers to a victory over Atlanta, we may never see Wilson start in Pittsburgh.

Kirk Cousins starts all season for the Falcons, they win the division and lose the first week of the playoffs.  Then the Falcons trade him next off season to either the Giants or Raiders unless one of them signs Dak Prescott.  Then they trade him to Dallas instead.

Jayden Daniels has an excellent fantasy season for the Commanders and then gets hurt in Week 11 and ruins my chances of winning my fantasy league.  (REVERSE JINX, REVERSE JINX!)

The Bryce Young rehabilitation season doesn’t go so well and the Panthers are looking for a QB next season.  David Tepper offers Dak Prescott $800 million and Dak says no thank you, he prefers not to be irrelevant. 

Random Player Thoughts

Quick prediction.  Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing this season.  His talent behind the Jeff Stoutland coached offensive line, that’s a scary combination.  Hurts will vulture some of his TDs but Saquon wins the yardage title. (I swear I wrote this before his awesome opening game in Brazil, he’s just so talented)

S Kyle Hamilton has a breakout season in Baltimore, even more than his great year last year.  He finishes top three in Defensive Player of the Year voting.  He’s that good. 

CB Derek Stingley stays healthy all year in Houston and takes his place as one of the three best CBs in football with Sauce Gardner and Patrick Surtain II.  Christian Gonzalez is probably a year away from making it a true top 4.   

Trade Reads

The Cowboys realize Ezekiel Elliott was cooked three years ago and Rico Dowdle is just a fun name but not a starting RB.  They scour the league and here’s my list of guys they should consider (I can’t believe they haven’t traded for one of these guys already). 

Dameon Pierce (Texans) – he’s buried behind Joe Mixon and he’s a good young RB that the Texans clearly have given up on.

D’Onta Foreman (Browns) – They are just holding on to him until Nick Chubb is back, he’s a solid veteran addition.

Khalil Herbert (Bears) – The Bears signed D’Andre Swift and they have Rochon Johnson, free Herbert already.

Miles Sanders (Panthers) – As soon as Jonathan Brooks is back it’s Brooks and Chuba Hubbard, Sanders is superfluous.  He’s not very good but he’s better than the rest of the Cowboys guys.

Tradeable players at some point

CB Jonathan Jones (Patriots) – He’s 31, in the last year of his contract, and he’s a starting CB who can play inside or out.  The Patriots like their young CBs so trade him for a draft pick and let him go win something in San Francisco or Buffalo. 

CB Marshon Lattimore (Saints) – I have no idea of the cap implications of trading a guy with the money the Saints have kicked into future years but if the Broncos can cut Russell Wilson and take an $80 million dead cap hit, anything is possible.  The Saints need to face reality, it’s time to rebuild. When they’re 1-5 and starting Spencer Rattler at QB they may finally figure it out. Lattimore still has value, get some draft capital for him and move on to the younger guys. 

DE Chase Young (Saints) – If he has 4 or 5 sacks by week 6, cash him in.  The Saints only gave him a one-year deal, get a draft pick from a team looking for a pass rusher for the playoff run.  It’s like when a bad baseball team signs a really good bullpen arm and then trades him for prospects at the deadline because they have no use for him by the end of July. 

DT Jonathan Allen (Commanders) – He’s too good to languish in Washington and they have Jer’Zhan Newton waiting in the wings.  The rebuild is on, get some draft picks to get younger.

WR Courtland Sutton (Broncos) – Sutton is a deep ball, down the field guy, that isn’t Bo Nix’s game. The Steelers, Cowboys, Falcons, Browns, and Jets are all playoff caliber teams who could use him. 

WR Devante Adams (Raiders) – He’s going to get really unhappy in Vegas.  Aaron Rodgers would give you all of the Jets draft picks next year to have him once Mike Williams gets hurt and Allen Lazard is the second best WR on his team. 

LT Walker Little (Jaguars) – The Patriots will give you Bill Belichick as your coach next year if you trade them Walker Little.  Please.  Pretty Please.  (I know Belichick isn’t a tradeable asset, it was a joke).

Coaching Reads

On that note.  Jacksonville misses the playoffs, Doug Peterson and GM Trent Baalke get fired and Shad Khan offers Belichick a boatload of money to come take over in Jacksonville.  I’ve made this prediction before.  For Trevor Lawrence’s sake I hope Belichick’s year off doing 18 different football shows, seriously, you’ll be sick of him by the end of the year, he’s everywhere.  I hope Belichick realizes there are some really good young offensive and defensive minds in football and he hires some new coordinators instead of Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia. 

I think Dennis Allen is the first coach fired.  Should be right around the time they go to Spencer Rattler at QB.  Senior Offensive Assistant Rick Dennison has been around a really long time and has connections to Gary Kubiak throughout the years and has worked with Klint Kubiak.  Defensive Coordinator Joe Woods has been a long-time NFL assistant, either of those guys can be the interim coach. 

Lincoln Riley goes 8-4 or 9-3 at USC this year, his offense looks really good and some dumb owner gives him a bunch of money to come to the NFL.  Speaking of Mark Davis, he fires Antonio Pierce after one year as the full-time coach and gives Lincoln Riley a bunch of money.  He has the patience of his father and is even worse at hiring coaches. Riley takes the payday and gets out of Los Angeles because the USC faithful get restless, they think they are better than 8-9 wins a year (in the Big Ten, they aren’t).   

Let’s get the show on the road people.  First full day of the NFL season is TOMORROW!! Enjoy!

The Falcons are all in on this season.  They gave Kirk Cousins a ton of money, they traded for Matt Judon during camp, and they signed Justin Simmons on that same day.  We will see if all the skill position talent they drafted over the last few years is actually good, there are no QB excuses now.  Tampa Bay won this division and returns most of their team, the biggest loss might be OC Dave Canales who’s running the Panthers now.  He really helped Baker Mayfield last year.  The Saints are an enigma, Derek Carr was mess last year and the o-line is pretty rough.  They have a new OC coming from the Shanahan tree, can Klint Kubiak get their line to be good and make Carr not awful?  The Panthers just want to see if Bryce Young is salvageable, everything else is pointless until they answer that question. 

Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins signed a huge contract and the team drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in the draft, there are no more excuses at QB.  This offense has firepower that most teams should envy, it’s up to new OC Zac Robinson to put them in a position to succeed.  The biggest beneficiaries of the new coaching staff should be the three former top draft picks; WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson, and TE Kyle Pitts.  All three were underutilized by former coach Arthur Smith, Robinson needs to do better.  Bijan Robinson is one of the most gifted RBs in the league and yet Smith seemed to like Tyler Allgeier better.  No offense to Allgeier but there isn’t anything Robinson isn’t capable of at RB, he needs the ball more.  The offensive line also has plenty of talent.  They aren’t a bunch of All-Pros but LT Jake Matthews, LG Matt Bergeron, C Drew Dalman, and RT Kaleb McGary are all very good.  RG Chris Lindstrom is the one guy who might be an All-Pro talent. 

WR Drake London won’t be ignored anymore.  He’s a true talent who can play inside and outside and use his size to his advantage either place.  If he’s used well, he could be a top-level WR in the NFL.  They signed Darnell Mooney to be the WR2 and he’s an upgrade over what they had before but he’s just okay, not great.  They don’t have good depth at WR so they need TE Kyle Pitts to play like he did as a rookie.  He was misused like the others but he has otherworldly talent and athleticism.  If he’s used right, he can turn his career around, he’ll only turn 24 this year.

The defense will be under the direction of new head coach Raheem Morris and DC Jimmy Lake.  They did a good job with an undermanned unit with the Rams last season and this team has some talent to work with.  There are two veterans up front with Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata and Zach Harrison is young guy with potential.  They made the splashy trade for Matt Judon because they lacked any true pass rusher and Judon is definitely a real player.  Lorenzo Carter and Arnold Ebiketie aren’t great but they should benefit from Judon’s presence.  Kaden Ellis and Troy Anderson aren’t great ILBs but they can hold their own. 

The secondary got a major upgrade at safety with the signing of Justin Simmons.  He should pair with Jessie Bates to really improve the defense up the middle.  Bates was really good last season and while Simmons is getting older, he’s still a good player.  Outside at CB AJ Terrell is a legitimate CB1 it’s the other outside spot that could be problematic.  Mike Hughes, Clark Phillips III, and Antonio Hamilton give them options but it’s not a great group. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This team won this division last year and if things don’t go right in Atlanta the Bucs will be right on their heels to take it again.  Baker Mayfield had a good year and got a nice contract in Tampa Bay after bouncing around a bit.  He’s not an elite QB but he knows how to use the playmakers on this team to make his life easier.  WR Mike Evans is an absolute machine.  He was excellent last year and while he’s getting older, he doesn’t show signs of slowing down.  Chris Godwin has been his partner in crime for years now and they are a dynamic duo.  That duo might become a trio with rookie Jalen McMillan coming in and taking a starting spot immediately.  He’s a true talent and he’s been showing that all throughout camp.  McMillan can be major part of this offense. 

The offensive line is led by LT Tristan Wirfs who got a big contract extension this off season.  He’s an elite player and that’s a guy they can build around.  They needed to get better in the interior and they drafted Graham Barton and he steps in as an immediate upgrade at center.  He’s got size and power they need to improve.  RT Luke Goedeke was solid last year.  The two guard spots must be better or the running game will suffer.  RB Rachaad White was excellent as a pass catcher last year but he’s not a great runner at this point.  The line didn’t help him out but he’s an average talent as a runner.  They only drafted Bucky Irving in round four so there isn’t any real help coming. 

The defense feels like there could be some trouble.  They need some of their disappointing young players to really step up this year or things could go poorly.  DT Vita Vea isn’t the dominate force he once was, he’s 29 and his years of wear and tear could be catching up to him.  DE Logan Hall was once a second-round pick and DE Calijah Kancey was a first rounder last year, these two need to be better.  OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is another first round pick who hasn’t lived up to that and this is his last chance because there is no one standing in his way for playing time.  Yaya Diaby was a third-round pick last year who has outplayed him and will start opposite him. 

ILBs Lavonta David and KJ Britt return.  David is an all-time great Buccaneer but he’s 34 and well past his prime.  Britt stepped in for Devin White when he was struggling last year but he’s a limited player.  The secondary has Antoine Winfield Jr. and he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL but there are questions all around him.  The team traded Carlton Davis III to Detroit and now they are counting on Zyon McCollum becoming a starter opposite Jamel Dean and Dean stepping into the CB1 spot.  That’s tough and that means rookie Tykee Smith will be the nickel corner.  He was a good player in college but he wasn’t a pure nickel player.  Jordan Whitehead returns at safety after a middling year with the Jets.  Todd Bowles has always been a great defensive mind but he might run out of magic with this group. 

New Orleans Saints

There were six QBs taken in round one of the draft and none of them will get half the ovation from their own crowd in their first action than the seventh guy.  Spencer Rattler was a fifth rounder but if he replaces Derek Carr at any point, the Saints faithful will rejoice.  Perhaps Klink Kubiak can bring some of that Shanahan QB magic with him but if there is one QB who can resist the magic, it’s Carr.  The offense needs Carr to be serviceable to function and even then, there will be challenges.  The offensive line has issues all over.  LT will be rookie Taliese Fuaga, some weren’t sure he was even an OT in this class.  RT will be Trevor Penning who was so bad at LT last season he got benched.  The interior will have C Eric McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz, they have been good before but they weren’t last year.  LG is Lucas Patrick, the guy who couldn’t crack the Bears’ line last season.  It’s a problem.

RB Alvin Kamara is still an excellent player and while he’s not as dynamic as he used to be, he’s still good.  They should look to use Jamaal Williams more.  WR Chris Olave is also a great player but he relies more on a good QB play so he’s limited on this team.  WR Rashid Shahid is a good young player who also needs more consistent QB play.  TE has Juwan Johnson who’s a good pass catcher and Taysom Hill is still around to screw up fantasy leagues. 

Dennis Allen hasn’t been great as a head coach but he’s always been an excellent defensive coach.  The Saints’ defense wasn’t good before he arrived and he turned them around very quickly.  The defensive line is still counting on DE Cameron Jordan who is 35 and really fell off last season with only two sacks.  The other end spot is Carl Granderson who had a solid year but he’s not elite.  They signed Chase Young, hoping to hit on guy who hasn’t lived up to his draft billing to this point.  DT Nathan Sheppard and Khalen Saunders are solid vets but they need Bryan Bresee to take over and become a real player inside. 

The LBs are also led by an aging veteran in MLB Demario Davis, the difference is, even at 35, Davis is still getting it done.  He’s flanked by Pete Werner, a solid starter, and free agent signee Willie Gay, who was pretty good in Kansas City for the last few years.  The secondary is good at CB with Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, Alontae Taylor, and rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry.  That’s a good group even if Lattimore isn’t as great as he once was.  Adebo and Taylor are solid pros and McKinstry has a lot of potential.  Tyrann Mathieu is a good veteran safety but they are a little short opposite him and that could be a problem.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were a disaster last year and fired Frank Reich less than a year into his contract.  Now they try to reset with the guy who helped Geno Smith become a good QB in Seattle and who resurrected the corpse of Baker Mayfield in Tampa. Dave Canales has a history with broken QBs and now he gets the mother of all reclamation projects; former #1 overall pick Bryce Young.  Young was terrible last year and every fear about his physical limitations came to fruition.  It didn’t help that his offensive line was abysmal and his WR group was a joke.  The running game wasn’t anything to write home about either.  They addressed the problem of the interior of the line hoping to help keep Bryce Young clean and hopefully help the running game.  They spent big on guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt and they are shifting Austin Corbett to center.  They hope stabilizing the interior will help LT Ikem Ekwonu and RT Taylor Moton be better. 

They have also moved to help Young with more talent at the skill positions. Last year WR Adam Thielen was the most consistent player they had.  They traded for Diontae Johnson to give Young a reliable target on the field. They drafted Xavier Leggett to give them a big, speedy outside WR and they hope these two, plus Thielen, gives the passing game some juice.  The running game is still going to be relying on Chuba Hubbard to start the year but they drafted Jonathan Brooks in round two.  He’s coming off a torn ACL and won’t be ready to start the season but once he’s healthy he’s the best RB on the roster. 

On defense, they brought in some solid veterans to try to be competent on that side but it will be hard after they traded Brian Burns.  DL A’Shawn Robinson, LB Josey Jewell, OLB Jadaveon Clowney, safety Jordan Fuller and CB Troy Hill aren’t All-Pro guys but they are solid veterans who lift the floor of this defense. Robinson joins Derrick Brown on the front line and Brown is really good, having a better player opposite him will help.  Jewell gives them a solid player to pair with Shaq Thompson and that should improve the second level of the defense.  Jadaveon Clowney isn’t Brian Burns but he does his job well and will be a steady presence. 

The secondary needs Jaycee Horn to become a real player at CB and not just an idea.  He’s fought injuries in his career but they need him to be the guy they drafted in first round a few years ago.  CB Troy Hill is a solid veteran but he’s not changing the game.  The same goes for S Jordan Fuller who is a replacement level player.  Xavier Woods is fine but that’s about it. 

The Texans went from one of the worst teams in the league to a Super Bowl contender in a year because CJ Stroud proved to be an amazing QB in year one.  This season they got him more help by trading for Stefon Diggs and getting better on defense.  The Colts were actually a solid team that almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew at QB, now they will see how far they can go with Anthony Richardson.  Trevor Lawrence got a huge contract extension and some new weapons in the passing game but if this team fails like it did last season, Doug Pederson will be out of a job.  That leaves the Titans who are transitioning to the Brian Callahan/Will Levis era now that Derrick Henry is gone.  It could be a tough transition year. 

Houston Texans

Stroud was everything you could want in a franchise QB in his rookie season.  Nothing was too big for him and he became the team leader as soon as he stepped onto the field.  He unlocked Nico Collins and made him a legitimate WR1 and made Tank Dell a deadly WR2 when he was healthy.  The team didn’t like what they got from their WR depth after Dell went out with an injury so they made a splash and traded for the disgruntled Stefon Diggs from Buffalo.  Diggs wasn’t great the back half of last season but he’s still a skilled player and he’s in the last year of his contract, he should be motivated.  They do have guys behind those three; Robert Woods and John Metchie III, they just aren’t nearly as good as the top three.  TE Dalton Schultz is fin and he’s reliable and Stroud likes reliable.  

The offensive line was really banged up last season yet they still played pretty well.  Call it the Shanahan effect, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree and clearly his offensive line magic rubbed off.  LT Laremy Tunsil is one of the best in the league but the rest of the unit is just solid guys who are better as a unit than individually.  The team wanted more out of their running game so they traded for Joe Mixon.  Mixon has never been a superstar but he’s an upgrade for this team and he gives Stroud a guy to count on.

The defense wasn’t bad but it wasn’t especially good and while the team really only added Diggs and Mixon on offense, they did a little more for the defense.  DE Danielle Hunter comes in to really juice the pass rush opposite Will Anderson Jr.  Hunter is a top-level pass rusher.  They also got Folorunso Fatukasi at DT to give them a big body inside.  Once Denico Autry returns from his PED suspension the defensive line should be quite good.  They also signed LB Azeez Al-Shaair who once played for DeMeco Ryans in San Francisco and he upgrades their MLB spot.

The secondary is led by CB Derek Stingley who looked like a legitimate #1 CB at times last season.  They also have Jimmie Ward and at safety, Ward is getting older but he’s a sold vet and that’s a good thing because they seem to be going with Calen Bullock, a rookie, opposite him.  That makes Jalen Pitre, the other starting safety from last year, the nickel back.  It was the other CB spot opposite Stingley that was an issue. The signed Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson to try to fill it and Henderson didn’t even make the roster.  DeMeco Ryans seems confident Kamari Lassiter, the rookie from Georgia, can handle the other CB spot.  His physical profile and athletic ability are not elite but he plays better than he tests.  He’s going to have to be good because teams are going to avoid Stingley with an untested rookie opposite him.   

Indianapolis Colts

This is a bet on one guy, QB Anthony Richardson.  Somehow, this team was in the playoff hunt until the last week of the season with Gardner Minshew playing QB almost all season.  Richardson is a serious upgrade from a talent standpoint, now he has to play that way.  Shane Steichen has proven to be one of the better offensive minds in the game and now he hopes to have Richardson to unleash on the league all season long.  Richardson isn’t alone either.  RB Jonathan Taylor is one of the better RBs in the league and with Richardson around he’s job only gets easier as teams have to account for a dynamic player at QB.  The offensive line improved leaps and bounds last year with the same personnel as the year before.  Proof that scheme and coaching can do wonders for an offense and the performance of an offensive line. 

The pass catchers should be interesting.  WR Michael Pittman Jr. got paid well this off season and while he’s as steady and reliable as they come, he’s not the dynamic playmaker you think of when you think of the best WRs in the game.  That’s why they drafted AD Mitchell after he fell into the second round of the draft.  Mitchell is a boom or bust player but he’s big, fast, and dynamic down the field.  He should give them the dimension they have been hoping to get from Alec Pierce but have just never gotten.  Josh Downs is a wizard in the slot.  He can get open in an instant and if they can get Richardson to dump the ball off to him, he’ll make the play.  They have some guys at TE but there’s no telling which one of Kyren Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, or Jelani Woods is going to be the guy from week-to-week. 

The defense was better than it should have been last year but still needs some work.  They just lost Samson Ebukam for the year and that puts a lot more pressure on rookie Laiatu Latu to be ready to contribute right away.  They need his pass rush because the leading returner in sacks is Kwity Paye with 8.5, that’s not great.  Latu can play right now and he could lead this team in sacks.  DT DeForest Buckner is still the best player up front.  Guys like EJ Speed and Zaire Franklin are good at LB but they need the guys up front to be good or it will get ugly for them. 

Where this team could have used an infusion of talent is in the secondary and they really didn’t get it.  JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones are fine at CB but one of them needs to take a step up to be a CB1 and I’m not sure either one can do that.  Kenny Moore Jr. returns as a great nickel back but that’s all he is.  Nick Cross is fine at one safety spot while Julian Blackmon can be excellent if he isn’t having to constantly cover for others mistakes. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is the present and future of the Jaguars and now Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke have to try to stick around to see it through.  Pederson needs get more out of this offense and I’m not sure Baalke helped him enough.  They lost Calvin Ridley in free agency and signed Gabe Davis, that’s a downgrade. Baalke did draft Brian Thomas Jr. who I really like, but he’s a rookie WR.  Lawrence still has Christian Kirk, if he can stay healthy, and arguably his favorite target TE Evan Engram.  The passing game must be better and more consistent. 

RB Travis Etienne is better than he gets credit for but they haven’t gotten him any help as last year’s rookie Tank Bigsby did very little and they didn’t add anyone of note.  The offensive line needs to be better.  LT Cam Robinson being healthy might help but I’ve never been a big fan.  Signing C Mitch Morse should help stabilize the position and help the interior but they need LG Ezra Cleveland to be more consistent and RG Brandon Scherff to actually stay healthy.  RT Anton Harrison was the lone bright spot last year as a rookie.    

The defense gets a new coordinator in Ryan Nielsen who came over after a year in Atlanta where everyone got fired.  He’ll be working with a lot more talent in Jacksonville but that didn’t make the Jaguars defense all that great last year.  The defender formerly known as “the other Josh Allen” is now Josh Hines-Allen and he had a great year last year.  He got the big contract he wanted and now he needs live up to it.  His pass rushing partner is former #1 overall pick Travon Walker who had 10 sacks last season and is starting to play like someone who can really make a difference. The team also traded for DT Arik Armstead when the 49ers needed to shed salary and he’s a great addition inside.  The front four should be good. 

The LBs must play up to their billing.  Foyesade Oluokun was a big free agent signing a couple of years ago and Devin Lloyd was a first-round pick, they have to be that good for this defense to be better.  The secondary has a really expensive CB in Tyson Campbell, he’s good but he got paid like he’s great.  They signed Ronald Darby opposite Campbell, he’s okay but not good.  I like Andre Cisco and they signed Darnell Savage but they will likely play Savage as the nickel back as much or more than they play him as a traditional safety.  Nielsen needs to get the best out of this defense or things get tough for this team. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans surprisingly moved on from Mike Vrabel, apparently there was a power struggle between him and GM Ran Carthon and Vrabel lost.  The team hired Brian Callahan, the long-time offensive coordinator of the Bengals.  They also moved on from Derrick Henry and Will Levis takes over as the starting QB after he finally replaced Ryan Tannehill last season.  It’s a season of change for the Titans.  Callahan is a bright offensive mind and if anyone can get Levis to play up to his potential it should be Callahan.  The team spent money on WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to go with DeAndre Hopkins to give Levis some legitimate pass catchers.  Hopkins starts the year injured so that’s not going to help but Ridley and Boyd are still good.  TE Chig Okonkwo is fine but Callahan’s offenses in Cincinnati never really featured a TE. 

The running game loses Henry and the team signed Tony Pollard to go with second year back Tyjae Spears. Spears was solid behind Henry last season and Pollard is another year removed from his broken leg and should be better in time-share than as the featured back.  The offensive line was atrocious last year so Brian Callahan hired his dad Bill Callahan, one of the best o-line coaches in the game to fix it.  They drafted OT JC Latham and while he was a RT at Alabama, they will move him to LT.  They also signed C Lloyd Cushenberry from Denver to upgrade that spot and he’s an improvement over Aaron Brewer. Bill Callahan should be a breath of fresh air and should make LG Peter Skoronski his best self  If they get better line play the offense should be fine. 

The defense was pretty good and they should still be that way this season under new defensive coordinator Dennard Walker.  Walker comes from Baltimore and will use a slightly different system than Shane Bowen and Vrabel used.  DL Jeffrey Simmons is a star up front and the team drafted NT T’Vondre Sweat to give the front some real beef.  Sweat is 360+ lbs. on a good day and he’s the immovable object.  Harold Landry III and Arden Key are the outside pass rushers, they’re good but there isn’t any depth. Kenneth Murray and Jack Gibbens are a less than ideal pair at ILB which is why the team made their 11th hour trade for Ernest Jones IV from the Rams. Jones is a good young player that the Rams didn’t want to have to pay. He’s a massive upgrade here but he’s still just a good ILB.

The secondary is in flux.  The team traded for L’Jarius Sneed to be their top CB and he’s more than up to the task.  They signed Chidobe Awuzie to be the second corner, that could be a problem since he’s had health issues.  Roger McCreary is a good nickel corner.  Amani Hooker is the one returning starter in the secondary at SS while Quandre Diggs was a late addition to be the starter at FS.  The second CB spot could be an issue but otherwise there is talent here to have a good secondary.         

This division should be dominated by the 49ers when you look at their roster compared to everyone else.  Unfortunately, they had questions piling up all over during training camp and didn’t answer most of them until the first week of the season.  The Rams have the best QB and the offense should be excellent but the defense is young and just lost Aaron Donald to retirement.  The Cardinals have Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. in an offensive that wasn’t bad last year without them.  The Cards defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Seahawks are a team in transition but if the offensive line holds up, Geno Smith has the weapons to be good and Mike McDonald could turn this defense around quickly.  This should be an interesting division race to watch all year. 

San Francisco 49ers

I have to pick this team to win the division because this roster is loaded and Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the business.  That doesn’t mean there aren’t serious questions that could derail this team.  The offense is loaded with skill position players, or is it.  RB Christian McCaffrey is the best RB in the league and it’s not close.  He has a calf strain which doesn’t sound like a bad injury but McCaffrey has had soft tissue injuries in the past that lingered, this isn’t how you want to start the year.  They have WRs Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and first-round pick Ricky Pearsall.  Well they just got Aiyuk signed to a new contract after a contentious contract negotiation where he missed most of camp.  Oh, and Pearsall will miss at least the first month of the season after getting shot in the chest.  Thankfully, he’s okay and expected to fully recover but that’s not a great way to start your rookie season.  That leaves Samuel as the top guy and he’s getting older and isn’t as effective as he once was.  They have TE George Kittle, he’s awesome.  Kittle turns 31 in October, he had off season surgery that led to him losing a bunch of weight and he’s been trying to pack it back on before the season, that’s not ideal.  QB Brock Purdy runs Shanahan’s offense very well but if he’s working with Deebo, Kittle, and Jauan Jennings as his best pass catchers it’s not going to look as pretty. 

Shanahan’s offenses always have great offensive line play and can always run the ball.  Well, LT Trent Williams, arguably the best offensive lineman in football, missed all of camp and just got the new contract he wanted.  He’s 36 and the team certainly didn’t want to give him a long extension but again, he’s the best in football.  The rest of the line is not great and without Williams, they may have been awful.  The running game won’t be awesome without McCaffrey either, Elijah Mitchell hasn’t stayed healthy the last few years and I’m not sure Jordan Mason is really a guy. 

The defense has one big question, is first-time defensive coordinator Nick Sorenson up to the task?  After having Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans running the defense for his entire tenure, Shanahan had to fire Steve Wilkes after one year because the unit was not nearly good enough.  He promoted Sorenson, who’s never been a coordinator, that’s a lot of pressure.  He still has Nick Bosa at DE and they have to hope DT Javon Hargrave bounces back from a disappointing year.  They changed out most of the rest of the DL rotation with DT Maliek Collins, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Leonard Floyd and DT Jordan Elliot all new up front. 

Fred Warner returns at MLB and he’s probably the best LB in football.  He doesn’t have his running mate back yet as Dre Greenlaw is on the PUP list after getting hurt in the playoffs last season.  That hurts, they don’t have a great replacement.  CB Charvarius Ward is one of the best in football and I like CB Deommodore Lenoir but he’s more of a third CB.  They drafted Renardo Green but I’m not sure that helps enough.  Getting SS Talanoa Hufanga back will be huge after he got hurt last season.  The secondary lacks difference makers after Ward and Hufanga. 

Los Angeles Rams

I’m giving the Rams a bit of a bump here because Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are better known quantities than the coach/QB combos in Seattle and Arizona.  Stafford had a massive year last year even with Cooper Kupp banged up for a large part of the season.  He turned then-rookie WR Puka Nacua into a star and then when Kupp came back they were both excellent.  Stafford runs McVay’s offense beautifully.  He even makes WRs like Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell useful and he may have another good rookie in Jordon Whittington this season (another later round find).

Kyren Williams was fantastic last year even if Sean McVay has a tendency to run his RBs into the ground.  This year they drafted Blake Corum and perhaps McVay will decide Williams doesn’t have to take 95% of the carries for the year.  The offensive line got juiced a bit in the off season when the team signed LG Jonah Jackson from Detroit and moved Steve Avila to center.  If Jackson is healthy and RG Kevin Dotson can play like he did last year, this team should run the ball quite well.  LT Alaric Jackson is suspended for the first tow games of the year but he’s better than he gets credit for and RT Rob Havenstein does just fine. 

This defense lost the best defensive player in football as Aaron Donald decided to retire.  There is no way to replace him with one guy so they aren’t even going to try that.  They drafted DT Braden Fiske and DE Jared Verse, both from Florida St. to add to DT Kobie Turner and OLB Byron Young, their two young front seven guys from last year’s draft.  Turner was pretty good last year but he benefitted from all the attention Donald commanded.  Now he and Fiske need to split the attention up front.  Verse and Young can be the edge players who bring the pressure from the outside, something Young was mostly responsible for.  Although Michael Hoecht held his own and he makes for a nice third pass rusher now. 

Ernest Jones IV got himself traded to Tennessee and that leaves Christian Rozeboom and Omar Speights as the non-descript ILBs for this team.  The secondary is where things get dicey.  The CB spot was not good last year so they signed Tre’Davious White, after the Bills let him go because he’s been injured a lot lately.  They signed Darius Williams who once left them for Jacksonville, he’s an upgrade over last years CBs but that’s a low bar.  They signed SS Kamren Curl from Washington.  Signing a Commanders defender to improve your defense seems like a bad idea but Curl is actually good.  They also brought back John Johnson III at FS, he can’t be worse than they had last year.  It’s duct tape, bubble gum, and hope holding this secondary together but they have done worse.  

Seattle Seahawks

After the long Pete Carroll tenure they finally decided to move on. Mike Macdonald was arguably the hottest name on the assistant coaching market and Seattle remained patient and got their man.  Macdonald needs to fix the defense, which is his specialty, he brought in former Washington Huskies OC Ryan Grubb to fix the offense.  The offense has talent all around but the scheme was unimaginative and offensive line was in shambles last year.  Geno Smith is fine at QB, no one is going to mistake him for Patrick Mahomes but he can run Grubb’s offense.  He has three good WRs in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  They need Metcalf to play like an alpha, he has to be the top playmaker.  Lockett is aging but his game has always been about beating the other guy with his know-how so he should age fairly well.  JSN had some nagging injuries that bothered him at times last season but if he’s healthy, he’s really good out of the slot.  They still have Noah Fant at TE, he’s not elite but he’s useful in the passing game. 

The running game should be in the capable hands of Kenneth Walker III but perhaps Grubb will use Zach Charbonnet more than they did last season.  Grubb had a big, physical RB at Washington last season, Dillon Johnson, and people forget that because the passing game was so potent.  The real issue on offense is the offensive line.  The interior was awful last year and the OTs were hurt.  LT Charles Cross is very good when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last season.  RT Abe Lucas missed a lot of the season and he’s still on the PUP list, that’s not ideal.  They need these two to get healthy and stay that way.  They signed C Connor Williams, who’s also a big injury risk because they were awful at center last year.  Williams is good, but again, he has to be on the field.  LG Laken Tomlinson is 32 and hasn’t been in his prime in several years but he’s still better than what they had. RG looks like Anthony Bradford but they should give rookie Christian Haynes a real shot at the job. 

The defense starts up front with Jarran Reed, Jonathan Hankins, and Leonard Williams, three solid veterans.  They are all on the wrong side of 30 but Macdonald will get the best out of them.  Williams isn’t the guy he was at his peak but he can still bring it from time to time.  The wild card is rookie Byron Murphy II. He is a game wrecking talent and Macdonald should unleash him and let him destroy teams.  The pass rush is a work in progress.  It seems they are using Dre’Mont Jones there, he has always been more of a lineman than a LB but we shall see.  Uchenna Nwosu is returning from injury and probably their best chance at a true edge rusher.  They also have Boye Mafe and rookie Derick Hall, we will see if Macdonald can turn those guys into difference makers. 

They cleared out the LB group and signed Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson in free agency.  They add some speed and youth after the team relied heavily on Bobby Wagner last year.  The secondary is where Macdonald needs work his magic.  Devon Witherspoon is a talent that they need to figure out how best to use him.  Riq Woolen was really good as a rookie two years ago and then not good last year, fix him and you have a big, physical outside CB.  At safety, they let Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs go and they already had Julian Love to replace one spot.  They signed Jaguars cast-off Rashawn Jenkins to be the SS, not sure that’s great.  Baltimore had some great defensive back play under Macdonald, he needs to find that magic here. 

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are entering year two for Jonathan Gannon and year one went better than expected especially when you consider Kyler Murray was out for about half the year.  OC Drew Petzing put together an offense that was way better than the talent he had to work with.  Once Murray came back, he looked good running that offense too.  They found a good young piece to their passing game with TE Trey McBride proving to be a real weapon.  He didn’t have a lot of help so the Cardinals drafted the best WR prospect since Julio Jones, Marvin Harrison Jr.  Harrison is going to be a monster and he’s ready to step in as WR1 on day one.  He and McBride are top talents that should make Murray’s life a little easier.  Michael Wilson had a decent rookie year and should be the second WR on this team while Greg Dortch is the slot guy.  Wilson and Dortch aren’t game changers and there’s virtually no depth but you have to start somewhere. 

The running game will be capably in the hands of James Connor who is solid and completely unspectacular.  They did draft Trey Benson in round three and he has some juice, I like Benson.  The offensive line shuffles a bit with Paris Johnson Jr. moving from RT to LT after DJ Humphries was cut and the team signed Jonah Williams from Cincinnati to be the RT.  I’m not a Williams fan but he’s passable.  The interior isn’t stellar but Hjalte Froholdt held his own at center so that’s helpful.  The guards are not great and that could send Murray scrambling a bit, that’s not a bad thing, he’s good at it.  As long as it doesn’t get him killed. 

The defense is the reason I’m picking this team to finish last in the division.  They don’t have much on this side of the ball.  There are unproven rookies and second-year guys, veterans that nobody else really wants, and then Budda Baker.  The line has DTs Bilal Nicols and Justin Jones along with converted LB Zaven Collins, rookie Darius Robinson, and maybe Dante Stills.  That’s an uninspiring group to say the least.  At LB it’s guys like Dennis Gardeck, Mack Wilson Sr., and Kyzir White.  Not setting the world on fire with that group.  The secondary has CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting, Garrett Williams, and rookie Max Melton.  Yikes. Jalen Thompson is fine at SS but FS Budda Baker is a good player who gets overwhelmed because he’s trying to cover up for the lack of talent everywhere else.  I just can’t put this team competing for the division or the playoffs with this defense.      

Josh Allen and the Bills have owned this division lately and while a healthy Aaron Rodgers and some changes in Buffalo will make it harder, I’m not betting against the Bills.  Tua and the Dolphins won’t be an easy out for anyone until the weather changes and then we will see if their offense can give them enough to still be relevant.  The Patriots are starting the rebuild and trading Matt Judon was the latest indication they know they aren’t competing.  I don’t think the Patriots will be terrible, the defense will still be too good for them to be awful, but there will be growing pains on offense. 

Buffalo Bills

When in doubt, don’t bet against Josh Allen when his biggest competition in the division is Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett.  Allen may have lost his long-time top receiver when they traded Stefon Diggs but Joe Brady had phased Diggs out of the offense the last half of last season and this WR group gives Allen more options than just Diggs or Gabe Davis.  Brady took over midseason last year when Sean McDermott fired Ken Dorsey to save himself.  Brady promptly made James Cook a more prominent piece of the offense and just designed the run game better.  He deemphasized Diggs in the passing game and Khalil Shakir became a more useful player.  This year Diggs and his poor attitude are gone and they signed former Brady favorite Curtis Samuel, drafted Keon Coleman, and will once again use Shakir instead of sidelining him. 

Samuel had his best season playing under Brady when they were in Carolina together.  Coleman is one of my favorite rookie WRs, he can big-boy some catches over guys and he’s just a playmaker.  Shakir finally started to look like a real player when they got him the ball.  TE Dalton Kincaid has loads of potential and could lead this team in catches if he and Allen can find a rhythm. TE Dawson Knox is a good player too.  The run game was more effective under Brady and James Cook found running room behind an offensive line that should be pretty good this season even with a couple of changes. This is the most non-descript offensive line in the league but they are generally good.  LT Dion Dawkins has become a really excellent player but no one else on the line distinguishes themselves.   

Sean McDermott is a smart defensive mind and he’s going to have to show it this season with some significant changes in his secondary and looking like he’ll be missing Matt Milano again at LB.  The front four should be fine with DEs Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa two guys who can still get better as they hit their prime years.  They need Von Miller to be a good designated pass rusher but they can’t count on him to be anything more. DT Ed Oliver is one of the best in the league even if he often gets left out of the top DT conversation.  There are guys with higher profiles but Oliver is a menace. The LB corps takes a hit with Milano having another preseason injury.  They let Tyrell Dodson leave in free agency expecting Milano back to pair with Terrell Bernard, Milano tore his biceps and will miss significant time.  The second level of the defense could be an issue. 

The secondary lost Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde (all of whom were injured at one time or another last season) and their replacements leave a lot to be desired.  Unless CB Kaiir Elam tosses off the bust label and becomes the player they thought he was when they drafted him in round one a few years ago, this secondary lacks talent.  Everyone seems to be picking on the WR group as the thing holding this team back, I’ll take the secondary with CB Rasul Douglas, CB Christian Benford, S Taylor Rapp and S Damar Hamlin as the starters as a reason to doubt this team.  But doubting Sean McDermott’s defense doesn’t feel right.   

New York Jets

The Jets are all-in on this season because if they don’t win now Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas are probably looking for new jobs next season.  Aaron Rodgers returns off an Achilles injury and he’s 40 (he’ll be 41 in December).  They signed multiple injury risk veterans to fill holes, LT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams most notably.  Smith joins a reworked offensive line with John Simpson set to play LG next to him, Morgan Moses at RT, and rookie Olu Fashanu ready to step in when Smith misses time.  The line should be much improved if this unit stays healthy but Smith and Moses are both 33 and RG Aijah Vera-Tucker has missed significant time with injuries too.  If the line fails the offense falls apart. 

WR Mike Williams has been quite banged up in his career but if he can stay healthy, he gives them a really good complement to Garrett Wilson.  Wilson can be a breakout star with Rodgers throwing him the ball.  He has all the talent in the world but has been saddled with awful QB play in his NFL career.  Even a 40-year-old Rodgers coming off an Achilles tear is a massive step up.  RB Breece Hall will be the engine of this group. He’s a superior talent and was great last season when the offensive line was terrible and the defenses weren’t scared of the passing game at all. Hall should be even better this season. 

The defense was very good last year even with an offense that was doing them no favors.  There are some changes that could affect it and they are mostly up front.  They let Bryce Huff leave in free agency and traded for Hassan Reddick to fill his spot.  The problem is Reddick wants a new contract and is holding out and asking for a trade.  If they don’t have him, it’s up to Jermaine Johnson, who I like, and Will McDonald IV, not so much, to bring the pass rush.  McDonald isn’t a full-time player and there isn’t much depth on the edge even with Reddick.  DT Quinnen Williams is a star but they are pinning a lot of hope on Javon Kinlaw being better than he’s even been next to Williams inside.   

LBs CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams are legitimately one of the best pairs in the NFL.  At CB, Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, and Michael Carter II, are an excellent trio.  Gardner is a top three CB in the NFL and Reed is underrated.  The safety spot should be fine but not elite.  Chuck Clark and Tony Adams aren’t keeping offensive coordinators up at night. 

Miami Dolphins

Mike McDaniel has put together an elite offensive unit and the team committed to Tua as their starter for the foreseeable future so they are going with it.  The one problem is this offense is built on speed and when things slow down, they get a little out of sync.  McDaniel is a mad genius so he can try to tweak things but they need to strike while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are at their peak, mostly Hill.  Hill is the most dangerous offensive threat in the league and he dictates everything they do.  They signed Odell Beckham Jr. to be their third WR because they didn’t have one but he’s still on the PUP list so he’s out the first month at least.  I’m not counting on Beckham but I actually like rookie Malik Washington eventually.  Braxton Berrios just doesn’t do it for me. 

The running game was excellent behind Raheem Mostert who stayed mostly healthy last season and De’Von Achane who is a homerun waiting to happen.  Achane didn’t stay healthy most of the season so the team doubled down on speed backs by drafting Jaylen Wright.  Wright has great speed but is built a lot sturdier than Achane.  The offensive line is where this gets dicey.  Terron Armstead is back at LT for however long he lasts this season, he’s injured a lot.  They lost interior players Connor Williams and Robert Hunt and they are counting on Isaiah Wynn, Robert Jones, and Aaron Brewer inside, that’s not ideal.  Somehow, RT Austin Jackson is the lone bright spot on this line. 

The defense wasn’t good last year and they mostly blamed Vic Fangio.  He wasn’t the culture or scheme fit they needed so they moved on.  Now former Ravens’ assistant Anthony Weaver will take his shot at being the defensive coordinator but he’ll do it without DT Christian Wilkins who they lost in free agency.  They signed soon to be 38-year-old Calais Campbell and that’s actually and upgrade from what they had left over.  They need Zach Sieler to continue to develop.  The pass rush would be built around Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips, two very talented players who are both coming back from serious injuries, but Chubb will also miss the first month since he’s on the PUP list too. They drafted Chop Robinson but he’s a raw pass rusher who they plan  start, that’s less than ideal.  If you told me fellow rookie Mohamed Kamara was more productive this year, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

The ILBs are solid, newly signed Jordyn Brooks is a good player if he can stay on the field.  David Long Jr. was good last season too and Anthony Walker is a nice rotational guy to have.  The secondary has two excellent players in CB Jalen Ramsey and S Jevon Holland, the other spots have questions.  CB Kendall Fuller is a veteran who was on some bad Washington defenses, he might be better as a #2 to Ramsey instead of as a #1 in Washington.  S Jordan Poyer was a long-time stalwart in Buffalo but he’s getting older and coming off an injury. 

New England Patriots

The Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett to be their starting QB so they wouldn’t have to start Drake Maye behind an awful offensive line.  The problem is Maye is better suited to play behind a bad offensive line because he’s the better athlete who can actually get himself out of trouble.  The offensive line is going to be a problem unless they address the fact they don’t have a left tackle.  Vederian Lowe is bad, Chuks Okorafor is so bad they stopped playing him there and started playing Lowe, Caeden Wallace is so bad they barely tried him there. They need to either sign a veteran (someone give them Donovan Smith’s number) or trade for someone (what would it take to get the Steelers to give up Dan Moore Jr?).  The rest of the line can be pieced together, LG Sidy Sow, C David Andrews, RG Michael Onwenu, and RT Caeden Wallace, or move Onwenu out to RT and start Layden Robinson at RG.  This would work if they had an average LT, they don’t. 

The skill positions are all about potential.  RB Rhamondre Stevenson was great a few years ago and perhaps new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt can find that guy again.  They also added Antonio Gibson who gives them the pass catching back they have been missing since James White retired.  At WR they had eight guys to pick from.  Kendrick Bourne and KJ Osborn are the veterans with Bourne coming off a serious knee injury and starting the year on the PUP list.  Demario Douglas was their best playmaker last year and the slot belongs to him this season.  Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker were draft picks this season with high upside, Polk should be the top outside target eventually.  Douglas, Osborn, and Tyquan Thornton are penciled in as the starters until Bourne gets back and the rookies get comfortable.  Kayshon Boutte beat out Jalen Reagor for the last spot in the top six but he’s job is tenuous as Bourne will eventually be back.  Thornton has to take advantage of his playing time right now because the rookies are lurking and Bourne will take his starting spot when he gets back unless he proves too good to bench.

The Patriots’ defense was excellent last year even after losing Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez in the fourth game of the year.  Gonzalez is back to be the #1 CB he’s destined to be but the team traded Judon early in camp to Atlanta.  That’s understandable as he’s 32, coming off an injury and doesn’t fit the Patriots timeline.  They can make do without him although it will be harder with DT Christian Barmore sidelined with a blood clot condition.  Barmore looked like a breakout star last season so he’s hard to replace.  DE Keion White will have to be the breakout star of the defense this year and he looks poised to do it.  Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche will be the OLBs with Judon gone.  Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavi on the inside are solid not spectacular guys. 

This defense does have depth all over, they may not be teeming with superstars everywhere but their guys fit their scheme, do their jobs, and the sum is greater than its parts.  Where they do have some talent is in the secondary.  Gonzalez could be a superstar at CB.  Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones should be a fine CB2 and nickel.  Jabrill Peppers is better in this defense than he has been anywhere else.  And Kyle Duggar is a force at safety playing all over the field.  The defense will keep this team from being terrible no matter what the offense looks like but hopefully lets them be bad enough to get a top 10 draft pick next year so they can solve their LT issue in the 2025 draft.