My Second 2013 NFL Mock Draft (Post Scouting Combine after the first wave of Free Agent signings)

This Mock Draft is not based on any knowledge of what teams are thinking it is based on a combination of what I think teams will do and what I think they should do, if only they would take my advice.  

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel   OT   Texas A&M

The Chiefs traded for QB Alex Smith, franchise tagged LT Brandon Albert and then they released RT Eric Winston so a QB is out but an OT is still the pick.  Watch out for all of those people jumping off the Joeckel bandwagon and hopping on the Eric Fisher one.  Fisher made an impression with his size and athleticism and he’s going to cash a much bigger paycheck because of it but ask the St. Louis Rams how the decision to draft Jason Smith #2 overall in 2009 is working out for them.  You don’t draft an offensive lineman because of how he looks in his Under Armour running a 40 yard dash.  Andy Reid loves to draft linemen in the first round and he will go the safer route and take Joeckel.

Potential stupid move:  Well drafting a QB is out and the trade for Smith makes that pretty well known but they could grab Fisher and I think that’s a reach.

 

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14):  Dee Milliner   CB   Alabama

After Damontre Moore’s calamitous showing at the Scouting Combine he is certainly not going #2 overall.  The Jaguars still need a pass rusher but now that their top three CB’s (Rashean Mathis, Aaron Ross and Derek Cox) are not on their roster anymore they need a CB just so someone is lining up there come training camp.  Even if they get someone in free agency every team needs at least three CB’s and Milliner cemented his place in the top 5 with his 4.37 40 time at the Combine.  His ascension to the #2 spot is because none of the top pass rushers look like they belong this high up and Milliner put to rest all doubts about himself at the Combine.  Milliner doesn’t just look worthy of a high pick he now looks like one of the safest choices on the board.

Potential stupid move:  Believing that any of the QB’s in this draft are an upgrade over Blaine Gabbert and no I’m not saying Gabbert is that good I’m saying the QB class is that bad.     

 

3.  Oakland Raiders (4-12):  Sharrif Floyd   DT   Florida

I can’t believe I’m suggesting it either but look at the facts.  The Raiders need a DL to replace Richard Seymour and with Lotulelei’s heart condition they can’t take him.  Werner did not have a good Combine, it wasn’t as bad as Moore’s but he doesn’t look like a top 5 pick right now.  Floyd is becoming the darling of a lot of front offices right now because they realize he’s versatile and athletic for a man his size.  Every team wants to run multiple defensive fronts throughout a game and having a guy that can do a lot of things is very helpful.  Floyd is an ascending player they may only be scratching the surface of his potential.  I’m usually pretty risk averse at the top of the draft but I think Floyd was underutilized at Florida and his bowl game performance against Louisville was something to see.  At this point the Raiders should take the chance on his potential because great D-linemen are hard to come by and they need a great one.

Potential stupid move: Drafting Cordarrelle Patterson…never mind Al Davis isn’t making this pick so no worries.        

 

4.  Philadelphia Eagles (4-12):  Eric Fisher    OT   Central Michigan

Yes I changed my mind from my first mock draft, that’s why it’s called a mock draft, you can now mock me.  Fisher launched himself towards the top 10 at the Senior Bowl and continued to fly up to the top 5 at the Scouting Combine.  He is a very good prospect at a premium position and has proven to be one of the better prospects regardless of position in this draft.  Since QB’s are seemingly a non-factor this high in the draft and DE being a position of depth but not top heavy on talent OT is the position that will benefit the most.  The Eagles have to fix their OL and a healthy Jason Peters plus plugging in Fisher and moving Todd Herremans back inside to guard would be a huge upgrade over last year.  There is also the chance the Peters isn’t fully recovered or doesn’t last much longer making Fisher an even more valuable choice.

Potential stupid move: Thinking that Michael Vick is going to be your starting QB next year running Chip Kelly’s offense.  I give Vick until half time of the first game before he’s out with an injury.       

 

5.  Detroit Lions (4-12):  Jarvis Jones   OLB   Georgia

Conventional wisdom says the Lions go for a CB or a DE given the state of their secondary and defensive line.  The truth is they need a CB but there isn’t one worth this spot and I don’t think they are enamored with any of the DE prospects either.  Jones seems to have received the medical clearance he needed and he is the best pass rusher in this draft.  The Lions don’t run a 3-4 defense, where Jones would likely flourish as a pass rusher, but he has the skills to be an OLB in a 4-3.  The Lions should draft him and play him the way the Denver Broncos play Von Miller.  It isn’t as if the Lions LB corps is so good that Jones wouldn’t crack the line-up.  The other spot the Lions have to be looking at is OT.  Jeff Backus has retired and Gosder Cherilus signed with the Indianapolis Colts, the Lions drafted Riley Reiff last year and he will get one of the spots but they still need another tackle.  If Fisher makes it past Philadelphia at #4 the Lions have to grab him to protect their investment in Matthew Stafford.

Potential stupid move:  I’m not seeing a stupid move the Lions could make here unless they overdraft a CB out of desperation.  If they reach a little for Lane Johnson it would be understandable given their need at OT and if they like a DE that would be understandable too. 

  

6.  Cleveland Browns (5-11):  Chance Warmack   OG   Alabama

The Browns would love it if Dee Milliner would fall this far but that just isn’t going to happen.  I have had the Browns taking a OLB for new defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s 3-4 alignment but with the free agent signings of Paul Kruger from Baltimore and Quentin Groves from Arizona and Jabaal Sheard moving from DE to OLB they should be covered.  The best place for the Browns to find value is to grab the best OG to come along in a while.  Slotting Warmack in at LG between Joe Thomas and Alex Mack would make the OL pretty good.  Mitchell Schwartz came in as a rookie last year and stabilized the RT spot so bringing in Warmack would really solidify the offensive line.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting a QB here.  They need to solidify the offensive line and get a TE in order to give Brandon Weeden a legitimate chance on offense and see if he can be any good. 

 

7.  Arizona Cardinals (5-11):  Lane Johnson   OT   Oklahoma

It seems unlikely that the Cardinals would go into the season with either Brian Hoyer or Drew Stanton at QB after cutting Kevin Kolb but new GM Steve Keim is smart enough to know not to draft a QB this high.  The success the past few years at finding starting QB’s like Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson outside of the first round coupled with new head coach Bruce Arians QB coaching skills will lead Keim to doing what is best and that is taking the LT they so desperately need.  Lane Johnson put on a great display of athleticism at the Combine after playing well at the Senior Bowl.  Johnson represents the best value for the Cardinals at their most needed position.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting Geno Smith or Matt Barkley here and waiting until the second round to address the OT position.  Coupling Lane Johnson with a second round QB is a far better value.     

 

8.  Buffalo Bills (6-10):  Geno Smith   QB   West Virginia

Somebody has to take a QB too high in this draft and if I were a betting man I would bet on the GM that once gave a $60 million dollar contract to Ryan Fitzpatrick.  My feelings on this QB class are pretty obvious but I know QB’s get overvalued especially by teams that have struggled for years to find a good one.  Buddy Nix doesn’t have a lot of time left calling the shots in Buffalo and he is going to take a shot on Smith’s potential and it will probably set the Bills back a few years but that won’t stop him.  Everyone in the NFL knows you’re only as good as your QB and the Bills haven’t been good at QB since Jim Kelly (don’t start with the Flutie years).

Potential stupid move:  This is it.  Shooting yourself in the foot is never a good idea.

 

9.  New York Jets (6-10):  Dion Jordan   OLB   Oregon

This team needs a new QB and a new RB, they could use help on the offensive line.  They lost their TE (Dustin Keller) to a division rival and some guys on the defensive line (Mike DeVito and Sione Pouha).  Derrelle Revis might get traded and their WR corps isn’t exactly stellar.  Catching my drift here?  This pick could go just about anywhere and be justifiable.  The one thing I didn’t mention is the one thing this team has been missing for several years under Rex Ryan and that is a pass rushing OLB.  They recently parted ways with several LB’s and they aren’t getting any younger there so Dion Jordan is great value at this spot and just what the team needs on defense.  He’s young, athletic and versatile and even if Rex Ryan gets canned at some point in the near future Jordan could transition to just about any defense.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting Matt Barkley believing he’s an upgrade over Mark Sanchez, he may eventually be better than Sanchez but he isn’t an immediate upgrade.  

 

10.  Tennessee Titans (6-10):  Ezekiel Ansah   DE   BYU

I had the Titans taking Chance Warmack in the first mock draft and while that would be moot since I have him going to the Browns in this one I feel like I was right about their needs considering they signed OG Andy Levitre to a huge contract.  Since they got Levitre they can turn their attention to other needs and this is a team that has been looking for a top pass rusher for years.  Derrick Morgan is a solid DE but not a great pass rusher and Kamerion Wimbley was just a guy last year.  This team can afford to take a chance on Ansah’s potential and hope they get the difference maker they need on defense.  I haven’t been Ansah’s biggest fan but he has serious potential and he could be the next Jason Pierre-Paul and that is worth the risk to a team that needs to make something happen.

Potential stupid move:  This team also needs some new blood at safety but this is too high for S Kenny Vaccaro.     

 

11.  San Diego Chargers (7-9):  Jonathan Cooper   OG   North Carolina

The Chargers have a new young coach (Mike McCoy) and a young GM (Tom Telesco) and a QB in his prime to build around.  The best idea would be to rebuild the offensive line in front of said QB and since the top three LT prospects are off the board they should take the next best offensive lineman Cooper.  The loss of Louis Vasquez created a hole at OG that Cooper would fill nicely.  I didn’t have Cooper going in the first round of my first mock draft but he proved he is worthy by showcasing his athleticism and versatility at the Combine.  He isn’t just being looked at as an OG anymore because he showed the ability to play center.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting anything but the best offensive lineman on the board.  Rivers needs protection and the running game needs a boost (and I’m not talking about Danny Woodhead).  Whether they like Cooper or DJ Fluker or another lineman better they need to take the best one available.     

 

12.  Miami Dolphins (7-9):  Xavier Rhodes   CB   Florida St.

The Dolphins blew up every mock draft known to man with their free agent spending spree.  WR Mike Wallace, WR Brandon Gibson and TE Dustin Keller add the weapons the team needs to surround Ryan Tannehill with and Lamar Miller will be given every opportunity to replace the departed Reggie Bush at RB.  They also brought in two shiny new LB’s (Dannell Ellerby and Phillip Wheeler) to replace their old models (Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett).  They have lost one important free agent so far and that was CB Sean Smith so replacing him should be a priority.  LT Jake Long has signed with the Rams making an OT a possibility and they could take Fluker and move Jonathan Martin to LT.  Rhodes is more like Smith than Desmond Trufant, the other top CB, and would be a more likely replacement.  Rhodes is bigger and more physical like Smith.

Potential stupid move:  Paying Mike Wallace like he’s a top three WR in the league…oops…they already did that. 

 

13.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9):  Star Lotulelei   DT   Utah

This pick could be CB Desmond Trufant and it probably should be but the Buccaneers lost DT Roy Miller and DE Michael Bennett in free agency so getting some help on the defensive line looks like a smart move.  Lotulelei is great value here if his heart checks out.  The jury is still out on his medical clearance after having to sit out the Combine due to a heart problem detected by the medical staff.  For a team that has some undersized LB’s getting a big DT with the talent of Lotulelei at this point in the draft would be a coup.  There has been talk about the Bucs trading for Derrelle Revis and if they do that would solidify their interest in the defensive line prospects in the draft.  I like Lotulelei better than most of the DE prospects but a guy like Bjoern Werner or Barkevious Mingo can’t be completely dismissed here.

Potential stupid move:  Not trading for Derrelle Revis or getting a veteran corner on the free agent market and not taking Trufant here.  The Buccaneers need a couple of CB’s for this defense.  They ended last year starting Leonard Johnson and EJ Biggers, if that doesn’t scream team need I don’t know what does. 

 

14.  Carolina Panthers (7-9):  Sheldon Richardson   DT   Missouri

This might be the biggest no-brainer for any team in the first round.  The best player on Carolina’s defense is MLB Luke Kuechly and he needs better body guards up front.  Richardson is a very good penetrating DT who would take some of the pressure off of Kuechly in the middle of the Panther defense.  Richardson would also be a big help to DE’s Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy.  The Panthers could possibly go for DJ Fluker at RT to replace the ineffective Byron Bell but Richardson represents too much value here.

Potential stupid move:  Unless a bunch of DT’s go off the board before this pick the Panthers need to invest in one here.  Floyd, Lotulelei, Richardson, Jonathan Hankins, Kawann Short and even Jesse Williams present value at this point.  Don’t over think it just take the best available DT.   

 

15.  New Orleans Saints (7-9):  Barkevious Mingo   OLB   LSU

This team probably needs a LT to replace the departed Jermon Bushrod but the Saints have always prioritized their guards more than their tackles and they can find an able body LT later if they don’t think Charles Brown can handle the spot.  Rob Ryan is the new defensive coordinator and he is switching to a 3-4 defense and he needs pass rushing OLB’s to make it work.  Mingo is an athletic player that is best suited for OLB and he should flourish in Ryan’s scheme.  The knock on Mingo has been that he didn’t produce big numbers at LSU last year and he’s a bit of a one trick pony.  He is a speed rusher without a lot of moves but with Rob Ryan coaching him I think he will bring exactly what the Saints need, pressure.

Potential stupid move:  This organization is too smart to make some crazy pick and while Mingo is a bit of a wild card this team can afford to take the chance and spending the 15^th pick on a talent like Mingo is worth the gamble.      

 

16.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1):  Kenny Vaccaro   S   Texas

The Rams desperately need an infusion of talent at WR with the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson but that will have to wait until their pick at #22.  Vaccaro is the best safety prospect in the draft and the Rams need help at safety.  There are too many teams between now and when they pick next that might take a safety so they roll the dice on stilling getting value at WR at 22 and take the top safety prospect now.  They did a great job at CB last year signing Cortland Finnegan in free agency and drafting Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson now it is time to solidify the safety spot.

Potential stupid move:  Letting Vaccaro go here hoping he makes it to their next pick.  Pittsburgh, Dallas and Cincinnati are all teams that could grab him before their next pick. 

 

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8):  Damontre Moore   OLB   Texas A&M

The Steelers cut James Harrison because he’s gotten far less effective with age.  Damontre Moore didn’t do himself any favors with a terrible Combine performance and he wasn’t a whole lot better at Texas A&M’s pro day but his loss is going to be the Steelers gain.  The Steelers aren’t going to worry about a slow 40 time or a less than impressive bench press number they will look at what Moore did on the field for the Aggies.  Moore can step in at OLB and give the Steelers the type of impact player they are used to having at that position.  Their defense relies on pressure from the OLB and LaMarr Woodley hasn’t been effective lately either so they need a lot of help here.

Potential stupid move:  This organization doesn’t do stupid. 

 

18.  Dallas Cowboys (8-8):  Jonathan Hankins   DT   Ohio St.

This team is making the completely ill-advised transition from a 3-4 defense to Monte Kiffin’s Tampa-2 defense.  None of their best defensive players fit the new defense very well so it will be a tough transition for sure.  Hankins gives them a big body they need at defensive tackle, a position they are short on because they only needed 3 linemen before.  Hankins is more potential than production but you can’t teach a guy to be this big and athletic and he should be stout in the middle of a line that will have DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer lining up as undersized DE’s.

Potential stupid move:  I said this in my last mock draft but I am not a fan of switching to a defense that doesn’t cater to the strengths of DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Brandon Carr or Morris Claiborne. 

19.  New York Giants (9-7):  DJ Fluker   OT   Alabama

This team has to get younger and better on the offensive line.  They re-signed Will Beatty with the hope he will be their starting LT for the foreseeable future but RT is still a trouble spot.  Fluker is big and physical and built to be a dominating RT.  This is a great value pick and Fluker is one of the safer picks in the first round.  He will never be an elite LT but he will be one of the best RT’s in the league and probably fairly quickly.  The Giants could go their usual route and take a pass rusher like Bjoern Werner but I just think their need on the offensive line is going to outweigh their feelings about the pass rushers still on the board.

Potential stupid move:  There is a reason that a bad season for the Giants results in a 9-7 record, they aren’t stupid.  They don’t gamble too much and when they do they end up with Jason Pierre-Paul.    

 

20.  Chicago Bears (10-6):  Alec Ogletree   LB   Georgia

I said in my first mock draft that Ogletree would fall out of the first round because he’s a head case and he still is but I changed my mind.  The Bears still desperately need to address their offensive line even after signing Jermon Bushrod (seriously he isn’t much of an upgrade over J’Marcus Webb).  The problem is that the early run on offensive linemen means the Bears would have to reach a bit but if they do remember the name Larry Warford out of Kentucky.  The forgotten man behind two great guard prospects, Warford is a pretty good player.  I think the Bears will feel that their need at LB (they lost Nick Roach in free agency and they are aging rapidly otherwise) is just as big a concern as offensive line.  The fact that the team has some very strong leadership (Urlacher, Briggs and Peppers) on defense should be enough to assuage their fears about Ogletree’s problems.  If there is a locker room that can keep the kid focused and out of trouble it should be this one.

Potential stupid move:  Giving Jermon Bushrod a big contract was not a great idea.  He barely grades out better than Webb and he was playing with a QB (Drew Brees) that gets rid of the ball quickly.  He won’t have that luxury with Cutler.  I don’t understand why they didn’t go harder after Jake Long, he has had some injuries lately but if he is recovered he’s light years ahead of Bushrod.      

 

21.  Cincinnati Bengals (10-6):  Arthur Brown   LB   Kansas St.

This is a projection since Brown hasn’t worked out for anyone yet due to an injury.  Brown was fantastic on the field for Kansas St. last season and he brings some versatility to the Bengals.  He could play middle or outside LB in their 4-3 defense and the coaches can decide what is best for him and last year’s undrafted rookie Vontaze Burfict who played extremely well for them.  The Bengals lost Manny Lawson in free agency and it doesn’t look like Rey Maualuga will be coming back either.  This team could use an upgrade at RB but none of the RB’s in this draft look like first round picks let alone going all the way up at 21.  The Bengals would probably jump all over Kenny Vaccaro if he falls this far but I don’t see that happening.

Potential stupid move:  It probably wouldn’t be really stupid to grab RB Eddie Lacy or even Giovani Bernard hear to take over for BenJarvus Green-Ellis but there will be value at RB later in the draft.    

 

22.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (from Washington): Corderrelle Patterson  WR  Tennessee

The dream scenario for the Rams is they take Vaccaro with their first pick and then the best WR in this draft falls to them at 22.  Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson have skipped town and Sam Bradford has to throw it to someone.  Chris Givens, Austin Pettis and Brian Quick might end up being fine receivers but Patterson has the potential to be a game breaker and that is what this offense needs.  They just signed Jake Long so their need at OT has been filled.  They could still use some help on the offensive line but they can wait until later in the draft.

Potential stupid move: Passing up the best WR in the draft would be a major mistake and one the Rams are unlikely to make.    

 

23.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6):  Desmond Trufant   CB   Washington

After his 47 year career in the NFL the Vikings said goodbye to Antoine Winfield, he’ll likely play in his 48^th season next year for someone else and he’ll probably be pretty solid.  I may be off on his years of service but not by much.  The Vikings need to get younger in the secondary and Trufant brings excellent cover skills to the table.  They need help at LB too after losing Jasper Brinkley in the middle but they can pick up a MLB just like Brinkley later in the draft.  Trufant is my favorite man-to-man cover guy and he is too good to slide any farther in this draft.  He is the best player left on the board.

Potential stupid move:  Not grabbing Trufant now would mean leaving him for the Colts to take with the next pick and they would miss out on a very good cover guy.

 

24.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5):  Jesse Williams   DT   Alabama

The Colts have been transitioning their defense to a 3-4 since Chuck Pagano took over last year but they are missing some key personnel.  The biggest piece missing both literally and figuratively is a nose tackle.  They signed Ricky Jean-Francois from the 49ers but he can help all over the line.  Williams is a prototypical NT he has a low center of gravity, he is exceptionally strong and he isn’t known as a pass rusher.  He will anchor their defense for many years to come.  The Colts run defense will be much better with Williams and Jean-Francois lining up next to each other.

Potential stupid move:  The Colts are set at QB, TE and…um…yeah that’s about it.  It’s hard to blow a pick when you have needs everywhere.  The Colts just need talent especially on defense, more importantly talent that fits the needs of their new defense.  The drafting of Anthony Costanzo and the free agent signings of Gosder Cherilus and Donald Thomas this off season should mean that OL is not a need but the interior of their line could still use an upgrade or two.           

 

25.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle):  Tavon Austin   WR   West Virginia

A lot of people think the Vikings made a mistake trading Percy Harvin but I’m not one of them.  If this pick happens I really will believe the Vikings got the better of this deal.  Harvin is a weapon for sure but he is also a colossal headache.  He complained a lot and missed games with injuries and migraines and Austin brings a similar skill set without the baggage.  The Vikings already signed Greg Jennings to come in and be option #1 but they need more than one good WR to help this offense.  I’m actually a bigger fan of Keenan Allen but Austin fits the Vikings needs better.  Austin is a big play waiting to happen and that is exactly what this offense needs to take the heat off of Adrian Peterson.

Potential stupid move:  Grabbing the MLB they need to replace Brinkley here instead of waiting a round.  Kevin Minter, Manti Te’o and two or three other guys should get pushed down into the second round and they could easily replace Brinkley.

 

26.  Green Bay Packers (11-5):  Matt Elam   S   Florida

Everyone seems to think the Packers need help on the offensive line but what they need is for some of their young talent to be healthy and step up.  Evan Dietrich-Smith did a very nice job stepping in and replacing the ineffective Jeff Saturday at the end of last year and if Bryan Bulaga can get healthy and Marshall Newhouse or Derek Sherrod could step up at the other tackle then the line should be much improved.  The Packers lost SS Charles Woodson this off season to the AARP (or possibly to another team) and they need a new strong safety.  If Matt Elam were three inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier he’d be a top 15 pick.  He’s undersized and teams will wonder how long he will hold up but the Packers are looking to win now not five years from now.  Elam would give them a legitimate safety that could actually affect a game.

Potential stupid move:  Grabbing Keenan Allen because Greg Jennings left and Donald Driver retired.  I love Allen but spending a first round draft pick on a guy that will be your fourth WR (he’s not beating out Jordy Nelson, James Jones or Randall Cobb) would just be foolish when you have other needs.     

 

27.  Houston Texans (12-4):  Keenan Allen   WR   California

Devier Posey tore his Achilles tendon, Kevin Walter was just cut, Keshawn Martin is best suited for the slot and Andre Johnson isn’t getting any younger.  The Houston draft room would have to be doing cartwheels if Allen drops to them.  He can come in and line up opposite Johnson and eventually be Johnson’s replacement.  Allen is a terrific athlete and if he was healthy enough to work out right now I think he would be rivaling Patterson to be the first WR off the board.  He didn’t play with a great QB and he was the biggest weapon on Cal’s team so defenses were focused on him.  This kid has immense talent and if he plays with a good QB and a solid offense he will put up some great numbers.

Potential stupid move:  Passing on arguably the best WR in this draft if he falls to you would be a giant mistake.      

 

28.  Denver Broncos (13-3):  Bjoern Werner   DE   Florida St. 

The Broncos have made some savvy signings so far this off season. WR Wes Welker, OG Louis Vasquez, CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and DT Terrance Knighton are all very good and upgrade positions the Broncos needed upgrading.  The big snafu happened when a deadline wasn’t met and they had to cut Elvis Dumervil.  Dumervil was an undersized DE but he was the second leading sacker on the team behind star LB Von Miller.  The Broncos would be lucky if a guy like Werner falls all this way in the first round.  He has great talent but he is a little raw and wasn’t as physically impressive as some of the other DE’s at the Combine.  I don’t think the Broncos defense would miss a beat if Werner replaces Dumervil and Werner would probably hold up better against the run.

Potential stupid move:  Waiting until the last minute to redo a deal you knew you had to redo.  John Elway has had a good off season but he knew weeks ago that he couldn’t afford Dumervil’s $12 million cap hit.  They can all blame Dumervil’s agent for not getting the paperwork in on time but why would you let this go down to the last hour with a guy this important to your defense. 

 

29.  New England Patriots (12-4):  John Jenkins   DT   Georgia

They should probably draft a WR here since they are running very thin at the position but I can’t see Belichick pulling the trigger there.  There are no other glaring needs after the re-signing of CB’s Aqib Talib and Kyle Arrington and the signing of S Adrian Wilson.  I went with Jenkins because he is the perfect eventual replacement for Vince Wilfork and the Patriots will eventually have to replace Wilfork.  Jenkins is a massive human being who puts up virtually no stats which is exactly the definition of Vince Wilfork.  You cannot measure the impact of players like these guys in stats because they are space-eaters and they occupy blockers to allow the DE’s and LB’s to make plays.  The unsung heroes that are only appreciated by coaches like Bill Belichick.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting CB Jonathan Banks out of Mississippi St. would be Belichick repeating the same mistakes he’s made with Darius Butler, Devin McCourty and Ras-I Dowling.  Belichick drafting a CB in the first or second round has not proven to be a great idea.         

 

30.  Atlanta Falcons (13-3):  Datone Jones   DE   UCLA

This kid looked great at the Combine and the more film scouts watch of him the more they will realize what kind of skill set he brings.  He probably won’t fall this far but I couldn’t find a place for him higher than this so the Falcons luck out.  They need a DE that can put pressure on the QB and Jones can do that and everything else a DE needs to do.  Jones was seen as a tweener, not fast enough at DE and not big enough at DT, but he impressed at the Combine and I won’t be the least bit shocked if he goes in the late teens.  His versatility can be seen as an asset but also as a liability because he didn’t excel at just one position.

Potential stupid move:  I think it would be a mistake to pass on a pass rusher because the Falcons needed one even before they let John Abraham go and now they really need one.  However, if they decide to take TE Tyler Eifert as Tony Gonzalez’s eventual replacement I wouldn’t fault them.  Gonzalez has decided to come back but he and Eifert could make a scary two TE formation.  I’m fairly certain Matt Ryan would agree. 

 

31.  San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1):  Margus Hunt   DE   SMU

I’m sticking with this as my out-of-the-box 1^st round pick.  Hunt isn’t a household name and he probably never will be because he projects as a DE in a 3-4 defense.  The only names of 3-4 DE’s that anyone knows are Houston’s JJ Watt and San Francisco’s own Justin Smith.  San Francisco lost some depth with the departures of Isaac Sopoaga and Ricky Jean-Francois and Justin Smith’s age can only be determined through carbon dating at this point so the 49ers need some new blood.  They signed Glenn Dorsey from Kansas City but he never proved to be a great fit in 3-4 defense there so I’m not expecting him to be much more than a back-up in San Fran.  Margus Hunt measured in a 6’8 at the combine and teams love the way he blocked field goals at SMU.  JJ Watt turned batting passes into an art form this year in Houston and someone is going to draft Hunt hoping he can do the same thing.

Potential stupid move:  Drafting a fast but undersized WR way too high in the draft and then having to sit him all season long…wait…that was last year’s stupid move.  At least it didn’t keep them out of the Super Bowl.    

 

32.  Baltimore Ravens (10-6):  Kevin Minter   LB   LSU

I thought the Ravens would take an ILB because Ray Lewis retired and then Dannell Ellerbe got a huge contract offer from the Miami Dolphins and bolted so I’m sure of it now.  The Ravens have to take a LB now and while Minter isn’t a great coverage LB he should be a great run stuffer for that defense and that is what they need.  The loss of Paul Kruger hurts their depth at OLB but the return of a completely healthy Terrell Suggs along with last year’s draft pick Courtney Upshaw makes that position less of a priority.  Jameel McClain could be an option at ILB if he is recovered from a spinal cord contusion but he has never proven to be a great option even when healthy so the Ravens could be looking for a couple of ILB in this draft.

Potential stupid move:  Ozzie Newsome rarely makes a mistake in the draft unless he’s drafting WR.  No seriously, Torrey Smith broke a pretty impressive streak of bad WR drafted by the Ravens between 2000 -2010.  Take a look at this list; Travis Taylor, Ron Johnson, Javin Hunter, Devard Darling, Mark Clayton, Demetrius Williams, Yamon Figurs, Marcus Smith, Justin Harper and David Reed.  These picks were all over the draft in terms of rounds but you would have thought he would have hit on one of them.

 

Potential 1^st rounder picks

QB Matt Barkley USC:  I actually like Barkley more than Geno Smith but neither is worth a first round pick in my opinion.  However, just like I see Geno Smith going in the first round I think Barkley probably will too.  I don’t have him in my first round because I’m not predicting specific trades but I think Barkley will fall to somewhere around the end of the first round and one of the teams that needs a QB (Arizona, Buffalo, Jacksonville) will trade back into the first round and grab him.

RB Giovani Bernard North Carolina and RB Eddie Lacy Alabama:  I put these two together because they are the top two RB’s but they bring different skill sets and there is no way both are going in the first round.  Neither one has proven that they absolutely belong in the first round but if a RB gets taken it will be one of these two.

WR Robert Woods USC: One of Matt Barkley’s favorite targets had a very nice Combine and showed more speed than anyone was expecting giving him a shot to be the 4^th WR taken.  He could sneak into the later part of round 1.

TE Tyler Eifert Notre Dame:  I had a really hard time leaving Eifert out of the first round because he could be such a weapon for someone but not everyone can go in the first round.  Eifert has moved ahead of Zach Ertz as the top TE in this draft after showing at the Combine that he could be a solid blocker.  He was always a better receiving threat than Ertz but he was a little lacking in the blocking department, when he showed that skill at the Combine everyone took notice.

TE Zach Ertz Stanford:  Ertz is an all-around good TE.  He can catch and he can block and he isn’t afraid to do either one.  He is just slightly behind Eifert in the speed and natural receiving department but he will make someone a very nice starting TE next season.

OG Larry Warford Kentucky:  Warford has the unenviable task of being in the same OG class as Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper.  Warford is a very talented guard but Warmack and Cooper are special players and he just doesn’t quite measure up.  He could slip into the end of the first round if all of the top offensive line players go early and someone feels they need to take the next best player.

OL Barrett Jones Alabama:  For some inexplicable reason Jones’ value seems to have dropped in the eyes of NFL evaluators.  I think any guy that can start at OT one year and win the Outland trophy and then start at C the next year and win the Rimington Award has got serious talent.  If someone takes Jones in the first round they won’t regret it but if he falls to the second round some is going to be very lucky.

DE Alex Okafor Texas:  This guy is pretty good and he certainly is talented enough to be a first round pick but he is in a very deep position group and in my mock draft he falls just a little shy of the first 32 picks.

OLB Tank Carradine Florida St.:  This guy is certainly under-the-radar at the moment because he had an injury at the end of the season.  If Carradine proves he’s going to be healthy someone that needs a pass rushing OLB could take a flyer on him at the end of the first round.

DT Sylvester Williams North Carolina:  He’s the unfortunate victim of the deepest position group in the draft.  There just wasn’t enough spots for more than six DT’s in my first round and even if there was there is no guarantee Williams is the next guy off the board because…

DT Kawann Short Purdue:  That’s right there are at least eight DT’s that are first round possibilities and either Williams or Short could replace any of the guys I have going in the first round or they could all go in the first round.  With this DT class beauty is in the eye of the beholder because they all bring different skill sets to the table.

LB Manti Te’o Notre Dame:  Te’o has been talked about as a first rounder but his Combine performance didn’t help his cause.  His position also isn’t one of great value to most teams and being viewed as a two-down LB won’t help him make the first round.  I only include him here because of the intangibles he brings and a team like the Ravens at the end of the first round could like him more than Kevin Minter so he has a shot at the first round.

I just want to thank NFL.com for their coverage of the Scouting Combine if it wasn’t for them I may have actually been productive over the last six days of my life.  I watched every minute of every drill I could possible see and I have read basically every report coming out of the combine about medical reports and interviews.  I do wish I could listen to Mike Mayock break down every minute of every player on every drill the entire time, I find myself nodding along with him as he speaks.  Here are the notes and conclusions I have drawn from the happenings at the Scouting Combine.  These are my opinions based on what I have seen and what has been reported.

Notes from the Scouting Combine
-Manti Te’o ran like he was in sand and he will be lucky to go to Baltimore at the end of the first round. His only saving grace was Minter wasn’t fast either and Ogletree is still a head case.  There are reports out of the combine that Alec Ogletree’s interviews with teams left a lot to be desired, reportedly he lied to teams about things they already knew the truth about (like his suspension last year for failing a drug test).  Drafting this kid is like buying a Powerball ticket, the jackpot is worth the gamble as long as you don’t spend more than you can afford.

– Tyler Eifert definitely helped himself; he finally looked like a TE and not just a jacked-up WR. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder between Eifert and Ertz and they are clearly the top two TE’s on the board.

-I was seriously wrong in my mock draft, Jonathan Cooper will make the first round for sure and he may go in the top half.  He had an excellent showing at the combine and teams even had him doing some drills as a center which will only increase his value.  I don’t know the draft history off the top of my head but I can’t remember ever having two interior offensive linemen rated this high with both possibly going in the top half of the first round.

-Damontre Moore just blew the biggest job interview of his life.  I try not to put too much stock in the numbers from the combine and I don’t like downgrading a guy because of a bad performance but Moore’s performance confounds me.  When all a guy has to do is show up, do what is expected and he’s a lock for the top 10 and instead he shows up looking like he isn’t prepared you start to wonder.  What bothers me is that Moore had to know the Jordan and Ansah were going to put up incredible numbers and by looking unprepared he comes off as a guy not willing to compete.  Jordan, Ansah, and Barkevious Mingo all passed Moore on the draft board and while Bjoern Werner wasn’t great either he is probably ahead of Moore and I may consider Datone Jones of UCLA ahead of Moore now too.

-Star Lotulelei’s draft stock starts to tumble until he can find a cardiologist that will give him a clean bill of health or figure out how to fix him (if that’s even possible, I’m not a doctor).  Sharrif Floyd and Sheldon Richardson certainly move up until Lotulelei’s health is no longer a question.

-Terron Armstead OT Arkansas Pine-Bluff ran the 40 really fast for an offensive lineman, heck he beat Te’o by a tenth of a second but don’t get so excited.  Lane Johnson was only a hundredth of a second slower and he’s a better player.  Armstead made himself a much higher draft pick but don’t overestimate the 40 times of O-linemen.

-Eric Fisher is making himself a lot of money as he just keeps climbing the draft boards.  Whatever the difference in pay is between where he goes in this draft and the early 20’s pick he would have been he owes a commission to Taylor Lewan and Jake Matthews for returning to school.

-In the last couple of days following the scouting combine I’ve come across a couple of updated mock drafts on-line, one that had Eric Fisher going number 1 (Dane Brugler NFLDraftScout.com) and one with Lane Johnson going number 1 (Pat Kirwan CBSSports.com).  This is a case of overvaluing scouting combine results and guys trying to show off.  There is no guarantee that the Chiefs will take on OT first overall but if the Chiefs take on OT first overall it will be Joeckel.  Go back to the tape guys, GO BACK TO THE TAPE.  Fisher and Johnson made themselves a lot of money this weekend but not #1 overall pick kind of money.

-I read a story the other day after the OL workouts that talked about how DJ Fluker’s 40 time was disappointing (he ran 5.31).  Have you seen the guy, he’s a massive human being even after losing 16 lbs. since the Senior Bowl.  Just draft him and be glad he can actually run 40 yards at all.  He is a devastating blocker and you don’t need him 40 yards down the field, you just need him destroying everyone within about 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.  And he will.

-Cordarrelle Patterson measured in at 6-2 216 lbs. and ran a 4.42 40-yard dash, cha-ching.  With Keenan Allen sitting out the combine with an injury the only other WR that truly made an impact was Tavon Austin with his 4.34 time in the 40.  However, Austin needed that time because he measured in at about 5-9 and 174 lbs.  He’s good at what he is as a WR but he isn’t the same kind of number one receiver that Patterson projects to be.

-Lots of people saying Geno Smith either held serve as the top QB in this draft or solidified his spot at the top of the QB chart.  Really?  He looked fine but would I rather spend a top 10 pick on him or grab EJ Manuel in the second round?  I’ll take Manuel.  Smith is not a sure-fire day one starter in the NFL and I don’t see him making the same immediate impact as Luck, Griffin or Wilson did so if I have to wait I’ll just wait on Manuel.  Also, how can you make that claim when the only QB (Matt Barkley) that could realistically challenge him for the top spot didn’t even throw?  I do love that one knock on Matt Barkley coming into the combine was that he isn’t prototypical  height for a QB, then he measured in 1/8 of an inch taller than Smith.  Just to refresh your memory in 2001 Michael Vick went #1 overall and Drew Brees went first in the second round, people thought Brees was too short to be a top QB.  Brees was also about a half an inch taller than Vick, who would you want as your QB now?  Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  I still think they both should go in the second round and I still believe they both will get drafted in the first round.

-Somebody forgot to tell Dee Milliner he was already the top CB in this draft.  Here’s a guy who pulled the anti-Damontre Moore move.  Milliner was the top CB in the draft and most people saw him going in the top eight because of the value of his position but instead of just going out there and solidifying his spot he blazed his 40 and locked up a top five spot.  There was one big negative on the scouting report for Milliner; it read “lacks elite speed”.  The only thing faster than Milliner’s 40 time was the time it took for scouts to cross out that note.  Desmond Trufant (a favorite of mine) and Xavier Rhodes both ran very well too and locked up the top two spots behind Milliner.

Positional Notes

QB- This group proved to be as underwhelming as everyone suspected.  Tyler Bray looks the part with his stature and big arm but he needs serious work on his reads and his decision making.

RB- Equally as underwhelming especially with Eddie Lacy not taking part in the combine.  Only thing of note was the speedster Andre Ellington of Clemson running 4.61 and making scouts think their stop watches were broken, he needs to run a lot better at his pro day or he may not get drafted.

WR- Patterson, Allen and Austin are the only sure-fire first round picks but there are probably five guys that could go in the second round (Robert Woods, DeAndre Hopkins, Quinton Patton, Terrence Williams and Justin Hunter).  Depth is a wonderful thing.

OL- Great talent at the top of the charts; Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson, Warmack, Cooper and Fluker are all destined for the first round.

DL- An embarrassment of riches.  At DE; Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Bjoern Werner, Damontre Moore, Datone Jones, Alex Okafor and Margus Hunt.  At DT; Sheldon Richardson, Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Jonathan Hankins, Kawann Short, Jesse Williams, Sylvester Williams and John Jenkins.  With all of these players half of the first round could be defensive lineman.

LB- The defensive line is an embarrassment of riches while the LB group is just an embarrassment.  Te’o, Minter and Ogletree all have their issues and Arthur Brown, one of the better looking players on tape has sat out the Senior Bowl and the Scouting Combine.  The guy who probably helped himself the most is North Carolina’s Kevin Reddick, he looks like he could be a three down LB.

CB- Really good at the top (Milliner, Trufant and Rhodes) with nice depth (Jonathan Banks, David Amerson, Jordan Poyer, Jamar Taylor, Darius Slay).  The real news was Banks running in the 4.6 range, he’s tall but slight of build and not running a great time is going to hurt his stock.  He came into the combine as a fringe first round pick and now he needs to improve at his pro day just to stay in the second round conversation.

S- Not a lot to say here, Kenny Vaccaro solidified himself as the best safety prospect on the board.  Matt Elam was good but he’s not big enough to overtake Vaccaro.

If you have been wondering why I have only written one blog in the past few months this is why.  I have been watching videos of draft prospects and going over NFL teams needs and preparing to write this mock draft.  This is the sports thing I love the most and I like to be well informed about it.  It is near and dear to me and I’ve put a lot of time into this so I hope you enjoy it.  This is just the first one and it won’t likely be the last and to say this is subject to change would be an understatement.

My First 2013 NFL Mock Draft (Pre Scouting Combine)

This Mock Draft is not based on any knowledge of what teams are thinking it is based on a combination of what I think teams will do and what I think they should do, if only they would take my advice.  

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel   OT   Texas A&M

Somebody has to be picked first and there isn’t a QB worthy of the first round this year let alone worthy of the first pick (don’t worry QB’s will still get drafted in the first round).  When there isn’t a QB worth taking two positions stand out LT and pass rusher and since the Chiefs play a 3-4 defense a traditional DE isn’t what they need and they have Tamba Hali and Justin Houston at OLB.  Their starting LT is Branden Albert who is a free agent that the Chiefs may franchise tag but it doesn’t matter because you can never have too many good linemen.  Joeckel is the best value at an important position and a safe pick.

Possible dumb choice: Any QB like Geno Smith or Matt Barkley (seriously you should have grabbed a QB last year).

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14):  Damontre Moore   DE   Texas A&M

Yep Johnny Manziel won the Heisman at Texas A&M and now two Aggies go 1 and 2 in the draft no wonder they were the only team that beat Alabama last year.  Moore was the pass rusher that stepped into the shoes of Von Miller and he did an excellent job, he isn’t like Miller because he is more of a DE than an OLB but that is exactly what the Jaguars need.  The Jags pass rush is abysmal and that is putting it nicely.  At the moment Moore is in the discussion with other DE’s like Ezekiel Ansah (BYU) and Bjoern Werner (FSU) and I guarantee Ansah is about to light up the Combine with his freakish athleticism but I like Moore better overall and while the Jags may want to swing for the fences that defense needs a solid double not a strike out.

Possible dumb choice: Again grabbing a QB would be stupid even if the new GM and coach aren’t sold on Gabbert (and no one would blame them) you have time to wait until the next round or better yet until 2014.

3.  Oakland Raiders (4-12):  Bjoern Werner   DE   Florida St.

The Raiders were second to last in sacks last season (yep the Jaguars were the worst) and luckily for them the top of this draft is flush with pass rushing DE’s.  If Al Davis were still alive and making this choice than the athletic freak Ansah would be my guess but GM Reggie McKenzie is smarter than that.  Werner hasn’t been playing football that long (neither has Ansah) so he is just scratching the surface of his abilities.

Possible dumb choice: Grabbing one of the athletic freaks like Ansah or Dion Jordan (Oregon) or Barkevious Mingo (LSU), Werner is the safer pick.  One of the reasons these teams keep picking at the top of the draft is because they miss on their high choices and don’t get production (can you say Darrius Heyward-Bey).

 

4.  Philadelphia Eagles (4-12):  Star Lotulelei   DT   Utah

I really want to give the Eagles an OT here but four is too high for Eric Fisher and there isn’t really an offensive lineman worth this slot.  Lotulelei is a beast and DT is a position of need for the Eagles, Cullen Jenkins isn’t getting any younger and they need a running mate for last year’s pick Fletcher Cox.  Lotulelei also is a big body in the middle that will help keep their LB’s clean and that will help their run defense more than anything.

Possible dumb choice:  Eric Fisher OT from Central Michigan is going to get drafted higher than he should because he’s the next best OT but if he gets pushed up to #4 it is a mistake, he’s good but he’s not that good.

5.  Detroit Lions (4-12):  Dee Milliner   CB   Alabama

Every mock draft has the Lions taking a DE because Cliff Avril is a free agent and Kyle Vanden Bosch was released but for years mock drafts have had the Lions taking CB’s in the first round and they never did and it has caught up to them.  If Moore or Werner were still on the board I would say yes grab them because they can make an immediate difference but Milliner is also the only CB that can make that same impact at his position.  CB is a fairly deep position but so is DE and I would rather have Milliner and whatever DE I can get in round two than one of the DE left now and a second round CB.

Possible dumb choice:  Just what I said grabbing a DE now and a CB in round two, you get better value from Milliner now and a DE later.

6.  Cleveland Browns (5-11):  Jarvis Jones   OLB   Georgia

The Browns took a QB (Brandon Weeden) a RB (Trent Richardson) and a WR (Josh Gordon supplemental draft) last year so it is time to pay attention to the defense.  New defensive coordinator Ray Horton (formerly the Cardinals DC) learned his defense in his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers so he knows the value of an OLB in a 3-4 defense.  Jones is going be a freak in a 3-4 defense where he can do what he does best.  The only thing standing between Jarvis Jones and being a top 10 pick is his medical report at the Combine.  He was diagnosed with spinal stenosis when he was an incoming freshman at USC, he transferred to Georgia and was cleared to play and I don’t believe he has had any issues in his time as a Bulldog.

Possible dumb choice: Taking a guy like Ansah or Dion Jordan and trying to make them an OLB in a 3-4, they are better suited to being DE’s, no reason to try to fit a square peg in a round hole.

7.  Arizona Cardinals (5-11):  Eric Fisher   OT   Central Michigan

You’re saying to yourself didn’t he just say fourth was too high for this guy but now he has him going seventh what’s the difference?  The difference is the Eagles don’t need Eric Fisher to solve their LT problems if Jason Peters comes back healthy on the other hand even if Levi Brown comes back healthy the Cardinals would be better off with Fisher at LT.  Stay with me, with the Eagles if Peters comes back he’s a world class LT and they would have to play Fisher out of position at RT.  The Cardinals would be better off plugging Fisher in at LT and moving Brown to RT (where he is a better fit) if he comes back and sliding a guy like Nate Potter inside to guard, one draft pick just improved three spots on your offensive line.  Fisher is the beneficiary of having Jake Matthews (Texas A&M, yes they had two stud OT) and Taylor Lewan (Michigan) both return for their senior years.  Fisher is a good prospect but his value is way up because he is unquestionably the second best OT in this draft and he proved it at the Senior Bowl.

Possible dumb move:  Taking a QB, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley or any of the other guys are not an upgrade over the poo-poo platter of crap the Cardinals trotted out behind center last year.  Do yourselves a favor and trade for either Alex Smith or Matt Flynn and fix your offensive line so your new QB doesn’t get killed.

 

8.  Buffalo Bills (6-10):  Geno Smith   QB   West Virginia

I said no QB was worth a first round pick and I believe that but QB is too important of a position and the Bills have sucked at QB for too long to go another year without drafting one.  Their mistake will be grabbing one in the first round because they just can’t help themselves.  They should wait until the second round and grab Ryan Nassib, he already knows the offense that new Head Coach Doug Marrone brought from Syracuse since that’s where he played.  Smith could turn out to be a pretty decent NFL QB but he won’t if he ends up in Buffalo it’s a bad match.

Possible dumb choice: This one which is how I know they will make it.

9.  New York Jets (6-10):  Ezekiel Ansah   DE   BYU

Okay so as a Patriots fan I’m secretly hoping for this and scared to death of it at the same time.  This kid could be the next Jason Pierre-Paul and he could take the league by storm but there is just as good a chance he’s the next Vernon Gholston (that sound you just heard was the hearts of every Jets fan stopping in unison).  The absolute definition of a boom-or-bust pick Ansah is a track guy that took up football a few years ago and is a speed rusher of epic proportions or he’s a one trick pony that the NFL will chew up and spit out in a couple of years.  The Jets should probably take Barkevious Mingo from LSU because he would transition better to OLB than Ansah but the Jets will fall in love with Ansah’s athleticism at the Combine and figure they can teach him how to play LB.

Possible dumb choice: Yep this one…I hope.

10.  Tennessee Titans (6-10):  Chance Warmack   OG   Alabama

This isn’t a sexy pick and the Titans could use help at DE, WR and maybe a couple of other places but every scout out there knows that Warmack is a special player.  Interior offensive lineman rarely go this high but it is almost certain that Warmack will go in the top 12 picks and who better to draft him then the Mike Munchak coached Titans.  The Titans offense needs to get Chris Johnson back on track so they can cash in on their investment before he runs out of speed.  Steve Hutchinson was signed last year but he didn’t make a difference and Leroy Harris is okay but Warmack would bring talent and attitude to the offensive line and maybe reinvigorate OT’s Dave Stewart and Michael Roos for one last offensive push.

Possible dumb choice:  Passing on a guy who could be the best guard in the NFL for the next decade, don’t over think it.

11.  San Diego Chargers (7-9):  Lane Johnson   OT   Oklahoma

When Fisher and Warmack go off the board before their pick the Chargers will desperately want to trade down because they need to take an offensive lineman but there is no one worth the pick here.  Johnson is a nice tackle but he is a better choice at #21 not #11.  I’m giving the Chargers Johnson because he makes sense and he played well at the Senior Bowl.  Again an OT benefits from Matthews and Lewan returning to school and goes before he probably should.  OT is one of the toughest positions to fill and almost all teams do it through the draft.

Possible dumb choice:  Passing on an OT because they think Johnson isn’t good enough to go this high, they need a LT badly and while I normally preach getting value at your spot they need a LT more than anything and passing on a starting LT would be idiotic.  Phillip Rivers is already damaged from the past few years of poor tackle play and they have to fix it.

12.  Miami Dolphins (7-9):  Corderrelle Patterson   WR   Tennessee

There is no more obvious marriage between team and position than that of the Dolphins and a WR.  You can argue whether Patterson or Keenan Allen from Cal is the better choice but the Dolphins have to take one of the two.  Brian Hartline was the Dolphins top WR last year…nuff said.  Patterson wins the spot over Allen due to his ability to stretch the field, it’s a close call but the Dolphins need a top outside receiver for Ryan Tannehill.

Possible dumb choice:  Not taking a WR, seriously this is the easy one just take one of the two guys.

13.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9):  Desmond Trufant   CB   Washington

The guy nobody was really talking about until the Senior Bowl week when he showed up in Mobile and showed everyone he’s the best cover corner in the draft.  He’s smaller than Milliner but he’s got great coverage instincts.  This is the guy that may shoot up the draft boards as people watch him work out this week and watch more film on him.  CB is a tough position to fill and everybody needs at least 3 of them so his value will go up because while the CB has some depth it isn’t very good at the top.  The Buccaneers were starting EJ Biggers and Leonard Johnson at corner at the end of last year so the value of a good corner is really high in their eyes.

Possible dumb choice:  Drafting anything other than a corner.

14.  Carolina Panthers (7-9):  Sheldon Richardson   DT   Missouri

Two years ago the Panthers wasted two 3^rd round picks on two defensive tackles whose names I can’t even remember now and they haven’t had a good DT since Kris Jenkins .  They have a couple of good DE’s and a great new MLB Luke Kuechly who would appreciate some help in the middle of the defense.

Possible dumb choice:  Not protecting your future All-Pro MLB Kuechly with some beef at DT.

15.  New Orleans Saints (7-9):  Dion Jordan   OLB   Oregon

Dion Jordan is technically a DE but if the Saints draft him they will move the extremely athletic Jordan to OLB in their new 3-4 defense coordinated by Rob Ryan.  I’m less worried about Jordan’s ability to adjust to OLB than Ansah’s because Jordan has played a lot more football and lined up all over the field for the Ducks.  Also taking him at 15 means it’s less of a gamble and I think Jordan could flourish in this type of attacking defense.

Possible dumb choice:  When you’re changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense you have to get pass rushers that are comfortable rushing from off the line of scrimmage so if the Saints don’t get someone like Jordan they will seriously regret it.

16.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1):  Keenan Allen   WR   California

Whether the Rams re-sign Danny Amendola or not they have to get Sam Bradford some weapons.  Allen is a 6-3 210 lb. stud who can stretch the field and will make life easier for Bradford and for Amendola.  The Rams have other needs especially on the offensive line but they have another first round pick coming up an I think Allen is too valuable to let fall because there is a bit of a drop-off at WR after him where as there are a few more OL that will still be available.

Possible dumb choice:  Grabbing a OT too high here and then having to settle for a lesser talent at WR later, Allen is too good to miss out on.

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8):  Jesse Williams   DT   Alabama

It ain’t sexy but it’s what the Steelers do.  Casey Hampton is 35 years old and he can’t play forever which means the Steelers need a replacement at nose tackle.  Williams is a big man with a lot of strength and was a rock in the middle of Alabama’s National Championship defense.  One thing you can count on from the Steelers is they will go with the guy that fits their team the best and Williams is a blue collar lunch pail type of player that the city will embrace.

Possible dumb choice:  The Steelers won’t screw this up, they may opt for Jonathan Hankins or John Jenkins but whichever one they choose will end up being very good.

18.  Dallas Cowboys (8-8):  Datone Jones   DE   UCLA

The Cowboys are making the strangest transition on defense of any team this year going from the attacking 3-4 style of Wade Phillips and Rob Ryan to the Tampa-2 style of Monte Kiffin.  Kiffin is a great coach but talk about fitting a square peg into a round hole.  The best players on the Cowboys defense are LB’s Demarcus Ware, Sean Lee, and Bruce Carter and CB’s Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr and all of them will be taken out of their positions of comfort.  Ware is an OLB not a DE, either Lee or Carter will have to move to OLB and Claiborne and Carr are both better man-to-man cover guys who will likely be playing too much zone.  One thing the Cowboys will need to do this transition is defensive linemen and with Ware likely manning one DE spot they will need a stout DE on the other end and Jones fits the bill.

EXTREMELY Stupid Move:  Changing to a defense that none of your personnel fit.

19.   New York Giants (9-7):  Barkevious Mingo   DE   LSU

Almost everyone sees the Giants grabbing a TE and yes they could use a young one but this is a team that has built its reputation on its pass rush and Osi Umenyiora is at the end of his time with the organization and Justin Tuck isn’t getting any younger.  Jason Pierre-Paul needs a running mate at DE and Mingo brings a lot of athleticism just like JPP.  I really wanted to give this team a LB like Kevin Minter but the Giants understand getting value in their draft picks and MLB just don’t rate that highly.

Possible dumb choice:  Not seeing one happening here because if they grab Minter or Zach Ertz the TE from Stanford they are still getting good value at this spot.

20.  Chicago Bears (10-6):  DJ Fluker   OT   Alabama

The Bears have to draft offensive linemen and yes I mean men as in more than one.  Jay Cutler will not survive another year behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  This team is doing a serious disservice to the skill position talent (i.e. Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall) by not protecting their QB and letting their offense run at full strength.  Fluker is a beast of a human being and while he may be best suited to play RT he will have every opportunity to win the LT job because he would be better than anyone on the roster at the moment.

Possible dumb choice:  Anyone that isn’t an O-lineman.  Whether they grab Fluker or his Alabama line-mate Barrett Jones or North Carolina OG Jonathan Cooper they must get blockers for Cutler.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals (10-6):  Kevin Minter   LB   LSU

Minter is not a household name but scouts and GM’s know him.  Minter is a tackling machine and a natural MLB.  The Bengals have questions at LB with Rey Maualuga and Manny Lawson possibly departing.  Minter could step right in and start at MLB and may be a better all-around player than Maualuga.  Minter is the best of a solid group of MLB in the draft and the Bengals need multiple players at this position so grabbing the best one in the group is a good start.

Possible dumb choice:  They could take Manti Te’o, whom I like as a player, but he was duped for several years by a guy pretending to be a woman on-line so maybe he’s not so smart hence he’s the “dumb” choice.

22.  St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (traded from Washington):  Barrett Jones  OL   Alabama

The forgotten yet most accomplished member of the Alabama Crimson Tide offensive line.  Coming into this draft everyone likes to talk about Chance Warmack being this great guard who should go really high and about DJ Fluker this massive tackle that can just manhandle people but its Jones that was the heart and soul of that line.  Jones played tackle and center and won both the Outland trophy at LT in 2011 and the Rimington trophy in 2012 at center.  The Rams can just draft Jones and figure out where to play him later because he will excel wherever they put him.

Possible dumb choice:  Panicking if they lose out on Fluker and not grabbing the next best OL, give Bradford help on the line so your offense can work.

23.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6):  Jonathan Hankins   DT   Ohio St.

Everyone is giving the Vikings a WR in the first round and if Keenan Allen or Corderrelle Patterson falls this far than I say go for it but if not than reaching for a Tavon Austin over a DT like Hankins would be a mistake.  Kevin Williams is no spring chicken and the rest of the interior defensive line leaves something to be desired.  Hankins is young and needs some seasoning but he’s got talent coming out his ears and could be the anchor to your defensive line for the next 7-8 years like Williams has been since he entered the league.

Possible dump choice:  Grabbing a WR not named Patterson or Allen.  Unless they trade Percy Harvin (which would be stupid) and decide to replace him with Tavon Austin then taking a WR here would be a mistake.

24.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5):  Xavier Rhodes   CB   Florida St. 

A 6-1 217 lb. corner is big and physical and the Colts could use some help in the secondary.  What they really need is a 3-4 OLB pass rusher for Chuck Pagano’s defense but there isn’t one sitting here that is a good value at this point so the next best thing is the third best cornerback in this draft, not a bad consolation prize at #24.  Rhodes fits a need and is the right value here.

Possible dumb choice:  Taking a DE like Alex Okafor or Sam Montgomery and trying to make them into an OLB or reaching for an OLB that doesn’t warrant this spot.

25.  Seattle Seahawks (11-5):  Sharrif Floyd   DT   Florida

The Seahawks could very well go for a DE to improve their pass rush or a TE or WR to improve their offense but Floyd is too good of a value at this point and the Seahawks may lose Alan Branch to free agency.  A lot of scouts love Floyd but I don’t think there is a consensus about where he will go, if someone falls in love with him he could go in the top 10 but that would be pushing it in my opinion.  This feels like the right place for him in the draft and a team that may really need him.

Possible dumb choice:  Drafting Bruce Irvin a round too soon…oh wait that was the dumb move the Seahawks did last year.  Irvin could be a nice pass rusher but the middle of the first round last year was way too high for a one trick pony like Irvin.

26.  Green Bay Packers (11-5):  Kenny Vaccaro   S   Texas

I would love to give the Packers a RB here to fix all of their RB problems but I’m not sold on any RB being worthy of a first round pick and I’m not sure there is a clear cut top RB in this draft which means you can get a guy in the second or even third round who has as good a chance to help you as a guy in the first round.  Vaccaro is the top safety prospect in this draft and the Packers just let go of Charles Woodson meaning they need help in secondary.  Vaccaro is way too valuable to let slip much farther and fills a big need for Packers defense.

Possible dumb choice:  Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard or any other RB in the first round.  There are some solid backs but why spend a first round pick on either of those guys when you can grab a Stepfan Taylor or a Joseph Randle later and get just as much production.

27.  Houston Texans (12-4):  Tavon Austin   WR   West Virginia

Andre Johnson proved this year he is still a stud WR but he won’t last forever and the Texans haven’t had a good second receiver in their history.  Austin would be a great complement underneath to Johnson going over the top.  Austin isn’t as big as DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson or Robert Woods from USC but he could work the slot very effectively, think Victor Cruz complementing Hakeem Nicks for the Giants.

Possible dumb choice:  Not sure there is one here for Houston because their needs match up with this draft slot pretty well whether they grab a WR or go for a NT like John Jenkins or maybe they grab a safety like Eric Reid.

28.  Denver Broncos (13-3):  Kawann Short   DT   Purdue

The Broncos are likely to lose three veteran DT’s in free agency this year so it is time to replenish.  Short likely won’t be the only DT they take in this draft but he’s a pretty good place to start.  Short played for a Purdue team that wasn’t all that good but he is a very good player and well worth a first round pick.  If the Broncos take him and pair him with last year’s draft pick Derek Wolfe they could have a pretty solid duo in the middle of their defensive line.

Possible dumb choice:  This team proved last year that their only real hole was at QB and they ably filled that spot with the return of a healthy Peyton Manning.  My only concern for the Broncos is with LT Ryan Clady who is a free agent.  Manning needs a good body guard and I suspect the Broncos will take care of Clady either with a new deal or with the franchise tag.

29.  New England Patriots (12-4):  Matt Elam   S   Florida

This pick would take care of two things for the Patriots; their annual draft a defensive back and hope he’s better than the guys you already have pick and Bill Belichick’s annual drafting of a guy from Florida, two birds one stone.  Elam is a nice prospect and since Patrick Chung has not panned out the Patriots need help at safety.  It’s a toss-up between Elam and Eric Reid from LSU as to who is the next best safety after Vacarro but I’m going with Elam because of Belichick’s affinity for Florida guys.

Possible dumb choice:  Taking Jonathan Banks the CB from Mississippi St. after years of taking guys like Devin McCourty and Deon Butler the Patriots should refrain from grabbing a tall lanky corner with “potential”, it never works out.

30.  Atlanta Falcons (13-3):  Zach Ertz   TE   Stanford

They should probably take a DE like Alex Okafor from Texas I mean you can only trot out John Abraham’s corpse for so many decades before it’s time to move on but even if they talk Tony Gonzalez out of retiring it’s not a long term solution.  Ertz is too great of a value to fall much farther and if Gonzalez is back it would make for a ridiculous two TE set.

Possible dumb choice:  Passing on a TE the caliber of Ertz for a decent pass rusher like Okafor or Sam Montgomery of LSU.

31.  San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1):  Margus Hunt   DE   SMU

Who?  Yeah, that’s what everyone says but remember this is the team that took AJ Jenkins last year in the first round.  There is usually someone in the first round that no one sees coming and the only reason I give it to the 49ers is because they run a 3-4 defense with a really good DE named Justin Smith but Smith is coming off an injury and heading towards his 12^th year in the league.  They need to get a future replacement and Hunt is 6-7 280 lbs. and looks like a good candidate to be a DE in a 3-4 defense.  He was starting to get some mention before the Senior Bowl and then he struggled a bit at the Senior Bowl and the shine came off a little.  Needless to say the 49ers are coming off a Super Bowl appearance and can afford to take a shot on a guy that may only fit their team needs.  They just have to hope that Hunt can make more of an impact than Jenkins did which shouldn’t be hard since Jenkins made no impact whatsoever.

Possible dumb choice:  Yes this is a possible dumb choice and missing on back-to-back first round picks can put a team in a bad position down the road but the 49ers believe in their system and believe in their coach so they are willing to take the chance.

32.  Baltimore Ravens (10-6):  Manti Te’o   LB   Notre Dame

It’s too easy, Te’o going to the Ravens to replace future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis, no way Ozzie Newsome gets this lucky again.  In 1996 Lewis was drafted #26 overall by the Ravens and the rest is history.  Te’o has his flaws but if he goes to a team with a solid defensive line and the right scheme to hide some of his deficiencies he can be a star.  While his little episode with the fake girlfriend might give his future teammates some fun material to start with Te’o is a natural leader like Lewis and NFL players understand there are people out there trying to take advantage of them and will side with Te’o.

Possible dumb choice:  This might be it and I’ve gone back and forth on whether or not the Ravens should grab Te’o to replace Lewis or Eric Reid to replace their other defense stalwart Ed Reed.

Other players that could go in the first round but I didn’t put in this mock draft.

QB Matt Barkley USC- If another QB goes in the first round it will be Barkley and most likely he will go in the first round because teams need QB’s.  If he doesn’t go in the top 10 then someone will jump back into the end of the first round to grab him.

RB Eddie Lacy Alabama- I like Lacy he is a big bruising back with good feet but he played on a great team and I’m not sure if it was all him or his offensive line.  He isn’t so much better than the rest of the RB group so he didn’t get taken here.

RB Giovani Bernard North Carolina- The other RB that has first round potential but again he isn’t so far ahead that you have to take him in the first round.

TE Tyler Eifert Notre Dame- Love Eifert as a stretch-the-seam TE down the middle but he’s lacking as a blocker which puts him behind Ertz and I don’t see two TE’s going in this first round.

OG Jonathan Cooper North Carolina- Really like Cooper and he’s the second best guard behind Warmack but guards are less valued in the draft unless they are as good as Warmack.

DE Alex Okafor Texas- Okafor is a good DE but he isn’t as valuable as the guys that went ahead of him.  He could sneak into the end of the first round and I won’t be the least bit surprised especially if Atlanta grabs him.

LB Arthur Brown Kansas St.- The only reason he isn’t a first rounder is because OLB in a 4-3 defense don’t have the value of other positions but Brown will be a second round pick and start for someone immediately and that team will be very happy with the results.

LB Alec Ogletree Georgia- Talent wise Ogletree should be a top 15 pick but a previous suspension at Georgia and a recent DUI arrest just prior to the Combine are going to make teams nervous.  If he can straighten himself out then the team that grabs him at the beginning of the second round is going to have one amazing LB on their hands.

CB Jonathan Banks Mississippi St.- I like Banks and he may make the first round just because CB is such a valued position but there is something missing.  I haven’t been able to put my finger on it yet but I don’t like him enough to put him far enough ahead of guys like Jordan Poyer, Logan Ryan or David Amerson to go in the first round.

S Eric Reid LSU- Reid is a good looking safety and he could easily make the first round especially if the Ravens want him as Ed Reed’s replacement.

 

Okay so this is going to be the quick hits version of The Hott Read.  I cannot seem to sit down and write out anything lately so this is the best I can do.

-The Manti Te’o situation.  The most ridiculous sports story since Tyson bit off Holyfield’s ear had me laughing until it hurt.  After everything that we have heard here’s my conclusion…this is totally the fault of the coeds at Notre Dame.  Ladies you have failed.  How does the captain of the Notre Dame football team and runner-up for the Heisman end up dating on-line?  Women of Notre Dame you should be as offended by this as I am disappointed in you.  You’re telling me he had to go on-line and find a fake woman from Stanford to date, next you’ll tell me the starting QB at Alabama is dating a girl from Auburn…oh wait…well at least she’s real and smokin’.

-The Super Bowl.  A power outage saved the Super Bowl.  It wasn’t much of a game until Baltimore’s momentum was unplugged during the power outage at the Super Dome.  My favorite remark came courtesy of Twitter “Oh shit, here comes Bane.”  I really thought Kaepernick was going to pull it off and he almost did.  No, it wasn’t pass interference on that last pass play for the 49ers but it was defensive holding. The deference here is you call holding which gives the 49ers half the distance to the goal and replay the down instead of a new set of downs. There is a difference between letting them play and not doing your job. The 49ers did a good enough job of screwing up that whole scenario with the play calling so giving them another down may not have changed the outcome but they deserved a fair shot and there is a reason defensive holding is against the rules.

*Correction* As my friend Bill pointed out defensive holding also results in an automatic first down, that should have been the call.

-Iowa Hawkeye football.  February 6^th was National Signing day for high school recruits across the nation and the only thing less impressive than the Iowa recruiting class was the Hawkeyes last season.  Don’t get me wrong Iowa is far from one great recruiting class turning things around but Iowa went into last season with verbal commitments from two 4-star recruits and on signing day neither of those guys signed with Iowa.  My biggest concern is the lack of any DE in the class.  Iowa’s pass rush has been pretty pathetic the last couple of seasons and Iowa didn’t sign a single DE recruit, there is always the possibility that someone changes positions but there isn’t an impact recruit coming in at DE and Iowa needs impact at that position.  The other notable thing about this class is the 5 WR’s Iowa signed.  Four freshmen and a JUCO transfer probably means the coaching staff isn’t too impressed with the guys already on campus, I’m glad to know they noticed.  One more quick thing, there are staff changes coming on the Hawkeye coaching staff and I’ll say more when we know who for sure is coming, going and who is coaching what position.  I’m sure Coach Ferentz will have all of that sorted out…by May.

-Iowa Hawkeye basketball.  The good news is that this team is close the bad news is that only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  They are so close to beating good teams it’s scary and unbelievably frustrating.  If they were an average shooting team they would be unbeatable unfortunately they seem to consistently struggle with that.  They have a decent shot at making the NCAA tournament but they have to win all the games they should win down the stretch and hopefully pull off an upset of two, I’m afraid their loss at Purdue is going to end up being their undoing in the eyes of the selection committee.

-So we are now into my favorite time of year leading up to my favorite sporting event of the year…the NFL Draft.  Yep I’m a draft geek and I admit it.  Just so you know I hate Todd McShay only slightly less than I hate Mel Kiper.  I can’t stand Chris Berman hosting the draft on ESPN he has become unbearable and Mike Mayock from the NFL Network is the smartest draft analyst on the planet.  A few things to note this draft is not one that your average NFL fan is going to know anything about because there are no quarterbacks or running backs worth drafting in the first round.  Don’t misunderstand me there are QB’s that will go in the first round but none of them should go that early.  Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon all have a chance to get drafted in the first round but only because so many teams are desperate for QB’s (Arizona, Buffalo and Kansas City to name a few).  If you only pay attention to the draft to see which Hawkeyes get drafted let me save you a few days, only Micah Hyde is getting drafted it will take an act of God for anyone else to go (sorry James Ferentz, you’ll get a shot but you are too small) and I’ll save all the scouts out there some time James Vandenberg and Keenan Davis are not worth your time.

If you have any draft questions for me just ask.

College Football

Mercifully the Iowa Hawkeye football season has ended and I’m fairly certain we can all agree that 4-8 sucks.  I’ve covered the Kirk Ferentz thing as much as I care to at this point and since it doesn’t look like there is any sort of movement regarding the staff I’d like to talk about the silly season, it’s coaching carousel time in college football.  There are already quite a few big time jobs open, some medium sized jobs and other smaller jobs which I probably won’t talk about.  Here are some thoughts.

Auburn:  Fired Gene Chizik two years after he won a national championship, couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.  I’ve never been a Chizik fan, mostly because I think he’s arrogant and yes partly because he was ISU’s coach, but I also believe he cheated to win the national championship.  I have no proof and who knows if the NCAA will ever find any reason to strip Auburn of that national title but if they ever do it will surprise me as much as the day the NCAA strips Kentucky of their basketball championship under John Calipari.  Talk about “what have you done for me lately”, granted Chizik did just lead Auburn to the worst record ever two years removed from a national title and he went winless in the SEC but damn that’s a quick trigger.

Rumored replacements:  Come on this is so obvious who should get this job.  Bobby Petrino.  Auburn once tried to replace Tommy Tuberville with Petrino when he was at Louisville and this is a match made in heaven.  A guy who once left the Atlanta Falcons before completing his first year to the school that fired a national championship coach two years later, what could possibly go wrong?  This has to happen these two deserve each other.

Tennessee:  Fired Derek Dooley after three seasons after he replaced the one-and-done Lane Kiffin.  How bad has this job gotten that the obvious front runner David Cutcliffe chose to stay at Duke instead?  The good old days of Phillip Fulmer seem like a distant memory and that was only four years ago.

Rumored replacements:  They are lucky this is an SEC job and there are only 14 of those out there.  The usual suspects as far as SEC replacement coaches are Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, Louisville head coach Charlie Strong and Arkansas St. head coach Gus Malzahn and these three should just get together and decide who gets which job.  My favorite rumor for Tennessee is Jon Gruden, I will be absolutely stunned if Gruden takes a college job.  Maybe it would be a good thing because his intense style might play better to guys that only have to put up with it for 4-5 years and then they are gone.  My question is does Gruden really want to put up with boosters?  Um…hell no.  Recruiting?  No way.  And this isn’t Tennessee 10 years ago you actually have to recruit and convince kids to come there now.

Arkansas:  Fired Bobby Petrino in the spring for his “spring fling” and hired John L. Smith who proceeded to take a preseason top 5 team and go 4-8.  Turns out that 10 month contract they gave Smith was two months longer than necessary.  Time to right the ship.

Rumored replacements: Gus Malzahn should be the first call and Charlie Strong should be the second or vice versa.  These two are options 1 and 1A first guy to say yes can have the job.  Gus Malzahn is a high school coaching legend in the state and won a national championship at Auburn as the offensive coordinator for Cam Newton.  He brings instant credibility in the state and stability because he would not be looking to go anywhere else.  Charlie Strong is from the state of Arkansas and has proven to be a fantastic coach not just as head coach at Louisville but also as a defensive coordinator at Florida.  The fallback option should these two turn it down should be UAB head coach Garrick McGee.

Kentucky: Wait I said I wasn’t going to talk about the smaller jobs. Next.

Purdue:  This is sort of a medium job.  They fired Danny Hope after he went 6-6 this year.  I never understood why they hired him in the first place.  Was it because he looked like a thinner version of Joe Tiller?  I think it was the mustache.  Here’s the thing, they hired Hope before Tiller left and made him the “coach-in-waiting” until Tiller retired, has this ever worked?  In the history of coaching has this ever panned out?   Is Jimbo Fisher at Florida St the best success story (the only success story) and they had to force Bowden out to get Fisher into the job so they didn’t lose him if I recall correctly.

Rumored replacements:  The most likely legitimate candidate is Northern Illinois’s Dave Doeren.  He was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin before taking the Northern Illinois job so he knows the Big Ten.  The Boilermakers could do worse, oh yeah, they already have.  The dark horse for this job should be Fresno St. head coach Tim DeRuyter, he deserves a better job.  Also Michigan St. defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi should get a look.

California: Fired Jeff Tedford after 11 seasons.  Okay so he went 3-9, this guy built Cal football but everyone saw this coming.  Another “what have you done for me lately” firing except he never won a national title.  Tedford is the best coach Cal has ever had; seriously name another coach in Cal history.  Some team is going to get very lucky hiring Tedford to take over their program.

Rumored replacements:  Who wants this dead end job?  How about a couple of guys with dead end jobs in smaller conferences, Tim DeRuyter from Fresno St. or Mike MacIntyre from San Jose St.  Good luck gentlemen you have to compete with USC and a rejuvenated UCLA for the best California talent and your chief rival Stanford happens to be on a roll.

Colorado:  They fired Jon Embree, best career move ever…for him.  This job has turned into a black hole.  Supposedly their first call was to Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun, do yourself a favor Coach Calhoun hang up.

North Carolina State:  They fired Tom O’Brien and they apparently want James Franklin from Vanderbilt, NC State is not a step up from Vanderbilt at the moment. Hang tight Coach Franklin there will be a better opportunity for you than NC State.

Boston College:  Fired Frank Spaziani, maybe they should rehire Tom O’Brien.

There are other open jobs but I don’t really know anything about or care to know about UTEP, Idaho or whichever directional Michigan school’s coaching searches.  I do know that there are some good smaller conference head coaches like Gus Malzahn, Dave Doeren and Tim DeRuyter who deserve to move to major conference jobs.  There are up-and-coming coordinators like Kirby Smart and Mark Stoops who will get interviews and possibly job offers and there are guys like Charlie Strong and James Franklin that coach in major conferences but deserve a shot at big time schools.  I called this the silly season before because inevitably someone will make a move that is laughable.  Last year it was Arizona St. hiring Todd Graham to his fourth or so “dream job”, this year I can only hope it is Auburn hiring Paul Rhoads to replace Gene Chizik just so I can watch the Auburn faithful lose their minds.  It should be fun watching Colorado fumble around trying to get someone to take that job; I think Rick Neuheisel is available.  I hope Kentucky realizes they are an SEC job in name only and I hope good coaches realize that NC State, Colorado and California are not the premier jobs their Athletic Directors are making them out to be.  I love the ridiculous rumors, Gruden to any college job, Rex Ryan to Kentucky (yep I read that somewhere) Bob Stoops to Iowa (wait that’s more wishful thinking than rumor).  The funny thing about ridiculous rumors is that once in a while Charlie Weis actually takes the Kansas job.  Let the carousel spin.