Category: Uncategorized

NFL Free Agency Thoughts

Free agency is going to have a major effect on the NFL draft and while I’ll start working on the next Mock Draft here soon, I thought I’d break down free agency a little bit before I do.  I’m also waiting a little longer to start on the Mock Draft 3.0 because there are still some free agent dominos to fall that could have an effect.  Where do Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson end up?  That’s going to have an effect on the draft plans of teams like the Giants and Steelers.  There are other guys who can affect the draft needs of teams because if you find a veteran starter you don’t have to draft for need.  There are starting players like LT Cam Robinson, OG Teven Jenkins, and OG Brandon Scherff still unsigned.  At WR, there are starters like Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen available.  Potential defensive starters at every level are still out there too; Edge Azeez Ojulari, DE Calais Campbell, LB EJ Speed, CB Rasul Douglas, CB Asante Samuel Jr, and S Justin Simmons.  These guys are likely short term fill in players but if a team like New England signs Robinson or Cooper, it changes the projections in the draft.  If the Seahawks sign Teven Jenkins, their dire need at OG is a little less pressing, although they probably still need one.  Douglas, Samuel, and Simmons could allow a team to skip a first-round reach in the secondary and draft best player available instead. 

Team needs have already changed through free agency signings and some major trades but some trades may still be to come.  The Bears draft strategy is completely altered with OGs Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and free agent center Drew Dalman on board.  Their need for defensive linemen isn’t as dire either with DT Grady Jarrett and DE Dayo Odeyingbo added up front.  I don’t agree with every move teams made and I’ll point those out as I go.  I’m going to start with a more team centric approach and then address some individual moves I like or don’t like, maybe one or two I hate.  Let’s gets started.

New England Patriots

I’m not just starting with them because it’s my team.  They had the most cap space to work with and after spending a ton of money, they still have a ton of money.  Their strategy to this off season became clear pretty quickly, spend big in free agency to fix the defense, I’m guessing they focus on the offense in the draft.  I like that strategy because building a young offense around Drake Maye feels like the right move. 

The defensive makeover.

There are a lot of moves here so stick with me.  They gave DT Milton Williams $26 million a year.  He was the biggest free agent to actually hit free agency and the Patriots went over the top to steal hi from the Panthers who thought they had him.  He’s going to start, hopefully alongside Christian Barmore, who’s coming back after having blood clot issues last year.  These two will be aggressive, attacking DTs in the middle just like Vrabel and new defensive coordinator Terrell Williams want.  The Patriots pass rush was awful last year and Milton Williams should really help. 

They didn’t stop with Williams to juice the pass rush.  They signed Harold Landry after the Titans cut him for salary cap purposes.  Landry isn’t what he was at his peak but he’s still a solid pass rusher and he’s a Vrabel guy. They overpaid but he’s a culture setter for this team and after last year’s debacle, they need some of those guys too.  He’s also still a better edge rusher than anyone they had on the team except Keion White.  White, Williams, Barmore, and Landry will be a lot better than last year’s group.  They also made a smaller signing bringing in K’Lavon Chaisson on a one-year deal after he resurrected his career last season in Las Vegas.  I’ve never been a Chaisson fan but if they use him as a pass rush specialist, like Vegas did, he can be a useful player and I’m not upset with his one-year, $5 million deal, they can afford it. The other addition up front was getting a big man to play a more traditional nose tackle spot.  Khyiris Tonga is a 6’2 337 lbs. brick wall who will make their run defense better and help there LB group play better. 

Speaking of the LB group, after re-signing LB Christian Elliss the team also went out and signed LB Robert Spillane from the Raiders.  These two are changing the profile of the LB unit of the Patriots. Smaller, faster, more athletic players at the position give the defense more flexibility.  Spillane plays like a madman and they need that type of attitude.  The Patriots have overhauled the front seven and it was long overdue.  This is a more modern unit and should seriously improve the defense. 

They didn’t stop with the front seven.  They signed CB Carlton Davis to be Christian Gonzalez’s running mate and now this team has two ass kicking man-to-man corners.  They could be the best staring duo in the league.  They also added a deep safety depth piece in Marcus Epps.  He was injured last year but he gives them a good deep coverage safety, which is a skill set they really didn’t have at safety currently.

They mostly struck out on offense.

The Patriots didn’t do much on offense but it wasn’t for a lack of trying.  They offered LT Ronnie Stanley and WR Chris Godwin more money than they re-signed with their respective teams for.  The Patriots didn’t cheap out, there just weren’t a lot of great offensive free agents and the ones they wanted to spend money on decided to stay home.  I can’t fault Stanley and Godwin; they are legecy players with their organizations.  The Patriots never had a chance to bid on Tee Higgins because the Bengals franchised him and have been unreasonable in their demands for trades for both Higgins and Trey Hendrickson. 

The Patriots did sign RT Morgan Moses from the Jets.  He’ll be 34 next season but he’s always been a solid RT and had a good year in New York.  He stabilizes the right side of line because he’s the RT, no questions asked, and that means Mike Onwenu can play RG and not be moved around. Otherwise on offense they grabbed depth pieces in free agency.  QB Josh Dobbs replaces Jacoby Brissett as the veteran QB, WR Mack Hollins is a dirty work guy, and OL Wes Schweitzer is a versatile interior backup player who will make the younger interior o-linemen earn their roster spots. 

What they could have still do?

The two positions the Patriots haven’t addressed are the two positions that were their biggest holes going into the off season.  LT and WR still need major upgrades. They wanted Stanley and Godwin but when they struck out, they luckily didn’t overpay for other players.  They didn’t overspend on Dan Moore or Jaylen Moore at LT and they didn’t offer Seattle the moon for DK Metcalf in a trade.  Amari Cooper is still a viable option at WR but they shouldn’t break the bank for him or give too long of a deal.  Cam Robinson would be a stop-gap LT but is also not worth overspending on.  The Patriots free agency frenzy gives their defense a makeover, filled one hole at RT and brings clarity to their draft strategy.  Draft a LT, WR, maybe a center prospect or a rangy safety and then some depth pieces.  They could still grab a veteran OG or center if they find one like, C Andre James, although that may be too many former Raiders for my liking.  I wouldn’t mind if they give Azeez Ojulari an offer, I think he’s a good pass rusher and you can never have too many of those.  He would also be insurance against Landry’s potential drop off.   

Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson clearly values the trenches.

The Bears didn’t wait for the start of free agency to start fixing their offensive line.  They pulled off trades for LG Joe Thuney and RG Jonah Jackson before free agency even started.  Ben Johnson is no stranger to a great offensive line and he clearly looked at the interior of the Bears line and said that’s not going to cut it.  The team followed that up by signing the best center in free agency, Drew Dalman.  Dalman isn’t the biggest or strongest guy but he’s a very solid center.  Some of Dalman’s physical limitations will be negated playing between Thuney and Jackson.  The paid him the second highest center contract in football and while he’s not that good, they overpaid for the major upgrade.  When you have cap space it’s fine if you have to over spend to fix a major problem.  The Patriots did it to fix their defensive line, the Bears did it to fix their offensive line. Having competent play inside will help their young OTs Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright.  If the Bears decide to draft a new LT because they aren’t convinced Jones is the answer, please have them call Eliot Wolf with the Patriots, he has a draft pick or two he’ll give you for Jones. 

Defensive line additions.   

Ben Johnson didn’t stop with the offensive line.  The two other big signings the Bears made were DE Dayo Odeyingbo and DT Grady Jarrett.  The paid a premium for both guys and it’s understandable in the case of Odeyingbo, less so with Jarrett.  Odeyingbo will be 26 next season, he’s been a solid player in Indianapolis and he fits the profile of a Dennis Allen DE.  He’s 6’5 276 lbs. and he’s a pocket pusher.  He’s never played opposite of a DE as good as Montez Sweat so that should help him.  Betting big on a solid 26-year-old DE that he can take another step forward in a defense he fits well is a gamble worth making.  Giving a soon-to-be 32-year-old DT a 3-year, $43.5 million deal is not worth it.  Grady Jarrett has been slowing down as a player for a couple of years.  At one time, he was the type of penetrating DT Dennis Allen could use but he’s not that guy any more and this contract isn’t going to age well.  There were other DTs I think they should have made a play for instead.  Poona Ford got less money from the Rams, Levi Onwuzurike got a one-year $5.5 million deal to stay in Detroit, either of them would have been money better spent. 

The only other one of note.

The only other outside player acquisition worth noting is WR Olamide Zaccheus. He comes in as the much younger replacement slot receiver for Keenan Allen.  I like the move because while Zaccheus is a good player and he won’t draw targets away from DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.  Moore and Odunze need to be your playmakers and Zaccheus is the third or fourth option on any pass play.  Keenan Allen was so good at getting open but he isn’t a dynamic playmaker at this point and it limits your offense. 

What they could still do and draft thoughts.

This free agency period really filled the major holes on the roster and that’s great, it means they are open to anything in the draft.  Like I mentioned before, if there is a LT at 10th overall, they can draft him and trade Braxton Jones and not have to worry about his upcoming free agency and whether he’s worth a second contract or not.  They should look for some depth at interior offensive line.  Thuney and Jackson are huge upgrades at guard but Thuney is going to be 33 next year and Jonah Jackson hasn’t been the picture of health throughout his career.  In the veteran market they could look for some safety depth, Kevin Byard is going to be 32 next season.  They did also lose backup LB Jack Sanborn who was a useful player so getting some depth there either in free agency or the draft would be wise. 

Buffalo Bills

 They are keeping their window open.

The Bills moved on from Von Miller for salary cap reasons and because he’s not very good anymore.  So, they went out and signed Joey Bosa to a one-year deal.  If Bosa is healthy, that’s a BIG if, he makes their pass rush rotation quite good on the edge.  Greg Rosseau, who got a hefty contract extension himself, and AJ Epenesa (he was re-signed last year), are two good, young DEs, Bosa brings a veteran presence.  It should help Bosa that Rosseau and Epenesa can take on the bulk of the snaps and he can be used only to do the things he does best. 

The other move the Bills made was replacing Amari Cooper, who they traded for at the deadline last year, with WR Josh Palmer from the Chargers.  Cooper had bad year last year and he didn’t transition well to Buffalo, Palmer will certainly be and upgrade from that version of Cooper. Palmer isn’t a star but he’s a useful, outside WR who should pair nicely on the outside with Keon Coleman, they have different skill sets.  And those two holding down the outside WR spots allows Khalil Shakir to play the slot, where he’s most valuable. Palmer’s presence should allow them to lessen the focus on TE Dalton Kincaid, who struggled to become a primary target last season. 

Depth pieces and draft thoughts.

They also added DE Michael Hoecht and DT Larry Ogunjobi who add veteran depth to the defensive front.  Both guys will miss the first six games of next year with PED suspensions but they will be valuable pieces once they are available.  If history is any indication, week seven or so is when Joey Bosa will be banged up so Hoecht will be especially valuable.  In the draft, this team can go anywhere.  This roster is pretty sound.  The secondary is probably where they need to look for help but they could still re-sign a veteran like Rasul Douglas, he’s been here before, or Asante Samuel Jr.  They will draft best player available and let whoever it is, ease into their playing time because they don’t need them to start right away. 

Carolina Panthers

There’s a fine line between spending and stupid spending.

The first thing that stands out is the re-signing of CB Jaycee Horn.  I’m all for rewarding your good young players when you find someone worth investing in, but they made Horn the highest paid CB in history with a 4-year, $100 million contract.  It’s a serious overpay because while Horn is a good CB, he’s nowhere near being the best in the game.  I feel sorry for the Texans when they have to negotiate with Derek Stingley Jr., his contract demands just skyrocketed.  Then the Panthers reacted to losing DT Milton Williams at the 11th hour by overpaying Tershawn Wharton from the Chiefs.  Wharton had a good year but 3 years, $54 million was over the top.  I think they will live to regret this one.  They actually made a much smarter signing getting NT Bobby Brown III from the Rams, he’s a good young player who will help them.  The 2-year, $20 million deal for Patrick Jones II from the Vikings might have been a bit too much but they do need edge help and Jones had a solid year in Minnesota.  They just have to hope he wasn’t a decent player made much better by Brian Flores’ scheme they need him to be the best version of himself in Carolina.

The best deal they made and the smart deals.

S Tre’von Moehrig is an underrated safety who can really help this defense.  It’s a big contract but it’s a big upgrade in the secondary for them.  Moehrig will make like easier and cover for a lot of mistakes made in front of him.  They have been going with middling talent at safety for years, they finally invested in a difference maker.  I also really like the Rico Dowdle signing at RB.  I wasn’t a fan of Dowdle as a starter in Dallas last season but here, he’s a back up to Chuba Hubbard and a pretty good one.  That will make the offense a little easier for Bryce Young as there won’t be such a drop off when Hubbard comes out of the game.  I mentioned the Bobby Brown III signing I really like and picking up his Rams teammate LB Christian Rozeboom is a solid move too. Rozeboom isn’t a needle mover but he’s a solid LB and they need the depth.

Draft thoughts.

They mostly spent money on the defense in free agency and that was mostly in the front seven, Moehrig being the one big exception being added.  They still need edge rush help and a CB opposite Jaycee Horn.  They didn’t add anyone except Rico Dowdle on the offensive side of the ball and they are a prime team to draft WR Tetairoa McMillan or TE Tyler Warren early in round one.  They are looking to do the same thing the Patriots did, sign defensive free agents, and build a young offense around your young QB in the draft.  I can’t argue with the strategy; I can argue with a few of the moves here. 

Minnesota Vikings

Beef up the lines.

The interior of the Vikings offensive and defensive lines left a lot to be desired last year so they attacked those areas in free agency.  C Ryan Kelly is an aging player but he’s a massive upgrade over Garrett Bradbury, a guy the team has wanted to move on from for a while.  The Kelly deal is only two years so he’s a stop-gap but a valuable one.  The big money was spent on his Colts teammate RG Will Fries.  Fries missed most of last season with an injury but the Vikings don’t seem worried, they gave him a 5-year, $88 million deal.  The good news is Fries is only going to be 27 this year so they are getting him in his prime. 

They also decided to beef up the interior of the defensive line with DT Jonathan Allen and DT Javon Hargrave.  This is far more suspect than the moves on the interior of the line.  Allen is 30 and was cut for salary cap purposes by the Commanders.  He can still play but they are paying him $20 million a year, he’s not that guy any more.  Hargrave was cut by the 49ers because he was overpaid, coming off an injury, and wasn’t all that productive when he was healthy for them.  Oh, and he’s 32.  They only gave him a two-year deal but $15 million a year seems excessive. 

Two moves I liked and one I don’t hate

They re-signed CB Byron Murphy who has really blossomed in Brian Flores’ defense.  Then they got him some help by signing CB Isaiah Rodgers from Philadelphia.  Rodgers isn’t great but they got him for 2 years, $15 million total, that’s a good deal for a starting caliber corner and Flores could make him look good.  I like those deals for a secondary that needed CBs going into the off season.  Re-signing Aaron Jones was a decent deal even if 2 years, $20 million is a bit much for a guy his age.  Jones is still a good back and the deal doesn’t preclude them from drafting a RB. 

What’s next?

This team still needs CB help and I would say a guy like Asante Samuel Jr. at a reasonable price wouldn’t be the worst idea.  The defensive line got better in theory with Allen and Hargrave but it undoubtedly got older.  They need to find some young defensive linemen in the draft, luckily this draft is full of them.  Losing Cam Bynum at safety will hurt.  Theo Johnson and Josh Mettelus are nice depth but they need a real starter opposite Harrison Smith, and by the way, Harrison Smith is 36.  If this team signs Aaron Rodgers it will end worse than the Brett Favre era of Vikings football, they should let Rodgers go to Pittsburgh and grab a veteran QB to back up JJ McCarthy and get his era started.  Sign a backup like Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, or Cooper Rush. 

Seattle Seahawks

Mike McDonald moves on from the Carroll Era.

The Seahawks aren’t messing around changing up the vibes in Seattle.  QB Geno Smith was traded to the Raiders, WR DK Metcalf was shipped to the Steelers, WR Tyler Lockett was cut, and even DE Dre’Mont Jones was let go.  The Seahawks didn’t want to pay Geno Smith the reported $45 million/year he was asking for so they pivoted.  The traded him to Las Vegas (Pete Carroll’s new team) for a third-round pick and then signed the top free agent QB on the market, Sam Darnold.  Darnold is seven years younger than Smith and is making around $7-8 million less per season than Smith wanted.  Darnold is also likely a better schematic fit with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak who worked with him for a year in San Francisco two years ago.  The team flipped their WR group too.  Jaxon Smith-Njiba became the go-to guy last year and the Seahawks didn’t want to invest in DK Metcalf long-term.  Metcalf goes to Pittsburgh for a second-round pick and he got overpaid there instead.  They also cut Tyler Lockett because he’s getting older and just wasn’t the guy he once was.  Metcalf and Lockett have been replaced by Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Cooper Kupp.  Kupp can be everything Lockett has been lately, if he stays healthy. No matter what you think of Metcalf, and I’m not his biggest fan, MVS is a serious downgrade on the outside.

What else happened?

The team re-signed LB Ernest Jones IV after trading for him last season.  He’s a good fit in McDonald’s defense.  They also re-signed DL Jarran Reed, also a good fit in the defense.  They signed DE Demarcus Lawrence from Dallas.  He may be a fit too but he’s going to be 33 and they gave him a 3-year, $42 million deal, that was excessive.  It’s a changing of the guard in Seattle in a real way.

What’s next?

Well, they signed OL Josh Jones, who is a well-traveled veteran who can play OT or OG in a pinch but they have to upgrade the interior of the offensive line or none of the offensive changes will matter.  Kubiak comes from the Shanahan coaching tree so they can hope he can mitigate some of the issues on the offensive line but you need some talent.  There first three picks in the draft should be OG, OG, WR in some order.  One of the OG picks could be a C/G prospect if they find one.  Sam Darnold is a bad QB when he’s under pressure and pressure from the inside will ruin him. 

Houston Texans

The mind of GM Nick Caserio is an interesting place.

After a great first year under DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB CJ Stroud two years ago, the Texans made some win now moves and it didn’t go so well, on offense anyway.  Former OC Bobby Slowik went from genius up-and-coming coach to former OC in a season after the offensive line fell apart and their WR group got hurt.  Caserio’s response was to trade LT Laramy Tunsil and OG Kenyon Green and cut OG Shaq Mason.  None of those guys played particularly well last season but usually you would look to replace them with better players.  At LT, I don’t know the plan.  Either RT Blake Fisher or former RT Tytus Howard moves there, or they draft one.  At OG they signed Laken Tomlinson, who’s been washed up for a couple of years and traded for Ed Ingram, a guy who got benched in Minnesota last year.  One of those two probably has to start at this point, my money is on Tomlinson but it’s not a great strategy.  A rebuilt and reshuffled offensive line will be breaking in a first time play calling OC Nick Caley.  Caley seems like a smart guy but this is a house of cards 

The team also traded for WR Christian Kirk who fell out of favor in Jacksonville.  Not sure why they traded for his contract when the Jaguars were going to cut him. Guess they didn’t want to bid in the open market against all the other teams that would have been clamoring for Kirk after his down years in Jacksonville.  They do need Kirk with Stefon Diggs a free agent they aren’t bringing back and Tank Dell’s gruesome knee injury.  They also signed WR Jaylen Watson and WR Braxton Berrios but I’m not sure those guys are upgrades over holdovers Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III. 

One smart move, maybe.

Nick Caserio traded OG Kenyon Green, a former first-round pick who had been benched, to the Eagles for safety/nickelback CJ Gardner-Johnson. He was starter for them in the Super Bowl so he’s a nice piece for a secondary in Houston that should be really good.  My only concern, Gardner-Johnson seems to wear out his welcome everywhere he goes (he’s done it twice in Philadelphia) and the Eagles offensive line guru Jeff Stoutland is probably going to turn Green into the offensive lineman people thought he was going to be when he was drafted in the first round.  Gardner-Johnson will help the Texans defense this year, but they will probably want to move on from him in a year while Green because a starting OG for someone else. 

What’s next?

I assume the Texans will target a LT in round one of the draft, there is a dire need there.  Tunsil is certainly past his prime and there were rumblings that his work ethic and attitude was not a good fit for DeMeco Ryans and culture he’s building.  That’s fine but if CJ Stroud gets killed behind a bad o-line, things get ugly in Houston fast.  They once ruined a #1 overall QB pick because they didn’t protect him.  They also need interior o-line help and if a really good WR falls to them, the guys on their roster shouldn’t preclude them from drafting one.   

Tennessee Titans

What they didn’t do says a lot.

The Titans made plenty of moves but they didn’t even attempt to sign a veteran starting QB and they even lost their veteran backup.  Unless they know something the rest of the world doesn’t about Brandon Allen, this team is drafting Cam Ward with the #1 overall pick.  They made major moves on the offensive line to fix that unit and it feels like they are trying to make an environment conducive to a new QB.  They seriously overspent on LT Dan Moore.  This is why teams draft LTs, even not good LTs get a ton of money on the free agent market.  Moore will be an upgrade on JC Latham who was miscast as a LT last year as a rookie.  This moves Latham over to the RT spot where he should be far more comfortable. They then signed veteran hired gun RG Kevin Zeitler.  Zeitler may be 35 but he was still really good last year for the Lions.  Now their line has LT Moore, LG Peter Skoronski, C Lloyd Cushenberry, RG Zeitler and RT Latham, that’s a good unit.  There’s something wrong with the weakest link Moore being the highest paid but beggars can’t be choosers and they were begging for a better LT. 

What this means.

It means Cam Ward is going number one overall and the New York Giants have to decide how hard they want to push for Aaron Rodgers vs. do they even want Russell Wilson vs. would they take Shadeur Sanders third overall.  Not great choices all around.  Titans still need help at WR, no, Van Jefferson doesn’t count.  They added some solid pieces to the defense; LB Cody Barton, DE Dre’Mont Jones, and S Xavier Woods, but none of those guys are changing their fate.  It’s all on Cam Ward at this point (or it will be once they officially draft him).  They should try to trade Will Levis before the draft, once they draft Ward and other teams take QBs in the later rounds, they lose all leverage.  Tell me the Browns, Giants, Raiders or Rams wouldn’t give up a pick to have Levis as a guy competing to start or as a young backup to an aging starter. 

Hott Read Quick Hitters (Moves I like)

The Arizona Cardinals needed help in the front seven and they signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DE Josh Sweat, and LB Akeem Davis-Gaither.  Sweat is exactly the type of edge rusher they need and he’s familiar with Jonathan Gannon’s defense.  Tomlinson is a big bodied NT who gives them a tough run defender.  Davis-Gaither isn’t great but he adds some speed at ILB, they need that.

The Bengals signed DT TJ Slaton from Green Bay.  He’s a young DT with some nice size and should help their defensive line.  He wasn’t too expensive and that’s good, they don’t have much money to invest on defense.

There aren’t a lot of good things to say about the Cowboys but I’m a Javonte Williams fan and they got him cheap.  He could have resurgent year if they fix the offensive line. 

The Broncos signed LB Dre Greenlaw, if he’s healthy, he’s an ass kicker, he’ll fit right in.  They also signed Evan Engram who is a pretty good fit for Sean Payton’s offense and will be a big help to Bo Nix. 

The Lions didn’t want to pay Carlton Davis what the Patriots were willing to give him so they signed DJ Reed from the Jets.  Reed is a really good CB and they shouldn’t miss a beat. 

The Colts finally decided to spend some money to fix the secondary.  CB Charvarius Ward is an excellent player and a true CB1.  They also signed S Cam Bynum who’s an underrated player and a massive upgrade for them. 

The Chiefs made some dubious moves but signing CB Kristian Fulton could really pay off.  They didn’t pay him a ton and when he plays, he’s a good CB.  They just need him to play.

The Raiders decided to get an actual NFL QB this year when they traded for Geno Smith.  They also gave Maxx Crosby a huge extension that made him the highest paid non-QB in football for four days until Myles Garrett signed.  Crosby deserved the contract and Geno will be a good QB for them.

The Chargers are doubling down on being a power football team. They signed OG Mekhi Becton to solidify the offensive line and RB Najee Harris.  Harris has gotten a bad rap at times because the Steelers haven’t always put the best line in front of him.  Despite that, Harris has four straight 1000 yard seasons and he never misses a game.  He’s not a game breaker but he’s more reliable than JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were last year.  The Chargers are planning to run you over.  Look for them to draft a speed complement to Harris. 

The Rams cut Cooper Kupp because he’s aging and clearly has lost a step.  They signed Devante Adams to become their outside X receiver like they used to have with guys like Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandin Cooks.  It’s the perfect situation for Adams because that’s what he does well.  He’s not the Adams from his prime in Green Bay but he doesn’t have to be.  Puka Nacua takes over the Kupp role and Adams makes his life easier. 

The New York Jets gave QB Justin Fields a 2-year, $40 million deal.  That’s seems high but when your last two QBs were Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers you do what you have to do.  Fields is worth the flyer.  He’s the bridge to whomever they draft in the 2026 draft, for now, they are just treading water.  I did like their signing of S Andre Cisco, he’ll be good in Aaron Glenn’s defense. 

The Steelers finally said screw it and signed CB Darius Slay.  Slay is 34 but he just helped the Eagles win a Super Bowl and he’s still better than any second CB the Steelers have employed in years. They have Joey Porter Jr. as CB1, Slay will be a high-end #2. 

One signing I feel will be better than anyone has even thought of is the Eagles signing AJ Dillon.  Dillon never stayed healthy in Green Bay but if he’s healthy enough to back up Saquan and replace the departed Kenneth Gainwell, he could be a monster behind that offensive line. 

Hott Read Quick Hitters (Moves I don’t like)

The Cleveland Browns traded for Kenny Pickett.  Haven’t Browns fans suffered enough.  If they don’t find an actual starter and Pickett starts next year, that’s just cruel. 

I liked the Cowboys signing Javonte Williams, now let’s see what I didn’t like.  They traded for not one but two former first round busts; CB Kaiir Elam and LB Kenneth Murray.  Then they signed two former first round busts; DT Solomon Thomas and DE Payton Turner.  Someone needs to kick Jerry Jones out of the old scouting file room.  They didn’t overpay these guys but counting on this many guys who have failed is not a great strategy. 

The Broncos got Dre Greenlaw from the 49ers, loved it, but they also signed S Talanoa Hufanga to a 3-year, $45 million deal.  Hufanga is an ass kicker like Greenlaw but it backfires on him, he gets hurt, a lot.  That’s a lot of money for a guy who can’t stay on the field. 

The Packers gave LG Aaron Banks a 4-year, $77 million deal.  Banks was fine last year but he wasn’t good.  Also, the Packers o-line wasn’t a problem and getting a guard to stick inside so they could move Elgton Jenkins to center is a problem for the middle rounds of the draft, if that.  They have Sean Rhyan and last year’s first rounder Jordan Morgan so it wasn’t a glaring need.  That might be the biggest overpay of the year since I can sort of justify the Titans need for Dan Moore. The 49ers line was bad last year and yet Banks and the next guy some how both got overpaid for it.   

The Chiefs proved why it sucks to be desperate for a LT.  They gave LT Jaylon Moore, who was Trent Williams’ back up in San Francisco, a 2-year, $30 million deal.  Moore has some upside but this is why you draft LTs and not try to sign them in free agency. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers were so desperate for WR help they traded a second-round pick (not a terrible price in draft compensation) to Seattle for DK Metcalf.  The real problem was giving him a 5-year, $150 million extension (that is a terrible price).  $30 million a year is WR1 money and DK Metcalf isn’t a true WR1.  He looks like one but he isn’t.  This is also going to complicate things with George Pickens.  I’m pretty sure the Steelers want to move on from Pickens but if they do, they are right back to where they were.  A fake #1 WR with a bunch of 3rd and 4th WR behind him and no real #2.  I’m not sure who is going to be desperate enough to trade for Pickens (I’m pretty sure Mike Vrabel will never be desperate enough to sign off on that move no matter how bad the Patriots WRs are).  I would say maybe the Cowboys looking for a WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb but Pickens is going to want to get paid and the Cowboys aren’t trading for a guy who wants the kind of money Pickens will want.  (Sorry that one wasn’t so quick).

Finally, the Commanders are falling into the old trap many teams have fallen into before (the Texans just did it last year).  You have great success in the first year of a new regime and a rookie QB and you think you are closer than you are.  Washington made two dumb trades; they gave up four draft picks (over the next two years) for Laramy Tunsil and they traded for Deebo Samuel.  Tunsil is fine at LT but he’s getting older and losing those four picks is going to haunt them in a few years when they are lacking depth and Tunsil is retired.  They only gave up a late pick for Deebo but they picked up his contract.  It’s not a ton of money for a WR2 but Deebo gets hurt and misses time and he’s just not the playmaker he was.  The Commanders defense played beyond their talent at the end of last year and if they regress next year, it won’t matter how good the offense is, they will have a worse record.  Those draft picks they gave up over the next two years will be missed.  (Sorry, that one wasn’t quick either)    

The New Era of Hawkeye Basketball

A new coach brings renewed excitement.

Iowa fired head men’s basketball coach Fran McCaffrey after 15 years in Iowa City and all I can say is, it was time.  I have been out on Iowa men’s hoops for a few years already and judging by attendance at Carver for the games, many of you are right there with me.  When you can’t get a team that has Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp, and the Murry twins out of the first round of the NCAA tournament, you’re done.  Iowa was never going to have more talent than that team under Fran and he was unwilling to change his coaching.  It’s entertaining to watch your team go out and score 80-85 points a game, unless your team routinely gives up 90 and gets beat.  Fran made his bed when he refused to even acknowledge the team needed to play defense.  But hey, I’m done talking about Fran, lets get to the fun part.  Who’s next? 

I’m going to list some guys here and give you a little idea of why they may be on the list, why they may get the job, why they may not get the job and what I think.  To be clear, the job is almost certainly Darian DeVries’ if he wants it. The current West Virginia coach has ties to the state, ties to Iowa, and is a really good coach.  Ben McCollum from Drake is almost certainly the back up to DeVries if something goes wrong and I can’t see him turning it down.  I’m good with either of these two simply because they aren’t Fran and I’ve been ready to move on for a while. I’ll list some others I think Iowa should check on but probably won’t.   

It’s his job, he just has to say Yes

Darian DeVries – West Virginia Head Coach

DeVries is from Aplington, IA and is the brother of former Hawkeye football legend Jared DeVries.  While Darian played his college ball at UNI, they are a Hawkeye family and it has been widely reported the Iowa job is his dream job.  He was a long-time assistant to Greg McDermott at Creighton and then had a great six year run at Drake that got him the West Virginia coaching job. 

Why he’s the right guy:

West Virginia hasn’t had the best year but they are a likely NCAA tournament team and he pulled that off with his best player, his son Tucker, missing the season with an injury. Instead, he turned a different transfer player, Javon Small, into an All-Conference player at guard.  Iowa is going to lose guys in the transfer portal and they need a coach who can recruit the portal to replace those losses.  DeVries did it last year at West Virginia and he would likely bring Tucker with him as he should get a medical redshirt season for this year.  One place Fran McCaffrey often had trouble in recruiting was getting elite guards to come to Iowa.  DeVries just proven he can get a guy and make him an All-Conference player in a very good basketball conference.

Why he might not happen:

Iowa has been lagging behind in NIL money for the basketball program.  Beth Goetz has to be able to show DeVries that Iowa donors are going to support the NIL program because he has NIL support at West Virginia and NIL is far more important in college basketball than any other sport, including football.  The biggest thing going for Goetz is that Fran had been losing fan support before NIL even was a thing and she can hopefully sell the fan base and donors on the excitement of a new coach and a new direction.  To me NIL is the only thing standing between Iowa and DeVries, he’s a smart coach who understands how important it is to being successful in college basketball and he may not come to Iowa if they can’t deliver.

The Guy on deck if DeVries doesn’t happen

Ben McCollum – Drake Head Coach

McCollum is also an Iowa native, born in Iowa City and graduated high school in Storm Lake.  He was a ridiculously successful Division II head coach at Northwest Missouri State winning 4 National Championships.  With all his success he was able to wait to take a coaching job he wanted and took the Drake job this last year.  All he did in his first year was go 30-3 and win the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament titles. 

Why he’s the right guy:

This guy just wins.  Once he got things rolling at Northwest Missouri State, he was a juggernaut.  He knows how to coach a team and win.  He’s young, ambitious, and wants to be great.  He’s from Iowa so this could be a destination job for him and he proved his loyalty staying at his own alma mater for so long even though he had other opportunities to move up.  His energy and enthusiasm would play well with an Iowa fanbase that had grown tired of McCaffrey and he might be the polar opposite of McCaffrey when it comes to his personality.  McCaffrey was always a bit curmudgeonly and could be a bit surly. McCollum is much more engaging and personable. That is going to be a major part of the turnaround at Iowa because the next coach has to win back the fan base. 

Why it might not happen:

The question with McCollum comes from two things, he’s only been a Div. I head coach for a year.  He was really successful this season but a lot of that was due to him bringing in his best players from Northwest Missouri State.  It’s not a reach to think the best players from the best Div. II program could step up into the Missouri Valley Conference, be coached by the same coach, run the same system and be great there.  It’s a different ballgame when you’re talking about stepping into the Big Ten.  Can McCollum get the type of athletes and players to compete at this level?  That’s a big question. 

The other issue might be his style of play.  Drake did the same thing Northwest Missouri State did which was slow the pace, play great defense, and grind out wins.  It’s not the most exciting brand of basketball.  I’m not someone who thinks this will matter as much to the fans, if the team is winning.  If the team struggles at all, McCollum will immediately be compared to Todd Lickliter and no one wants that.  One place this could be a problem is in recruiting the type of basketball players it takes to compete in the Big 10.  I think this is a lesser issue but it’s still something to consider.   

The Guy Iowa should seriously consider but won’t  

Will Wade – McNeese State Head Coach

Why Iowa should give him a look:

I’ll get right to it with Wade, this guy just wins wherever he goes.  He won at Chattanooga, VCU, LSU, and now at McNeese St.  He just really knows how to coach and he can recruit to his style too.  He’s still only 42 and he’s been a successful head coach at various levels of Div. I including in the SEC at LSU.  By the time you read this, he may be the head coach at NC State. 

Why Iowa won’t do it:

First, by the time you read this, he may be the head coach at NC State.  Second, Will Wade got fired at LSU when he got caught up in the recruiting scandal where the FBI had wiretaps of some coaches talking to various go-betweens with recruits about money they were going to be paid.  This was just as NIL was starting to happen but the rules were still against it.  LSU fired him to save face because the NCAA accused him of fraud and bribery.  Three years later what he did would be called negotiating with an agent about an NIL payment.  It’s a bit of a gray area right now but when the House settlement takes effect over this next summer, this will just be called contract negotiations.  The NCAA is such a joke.  Beth, go hire Will Wade!

Guys I could get behind if they get the job for some reason

Niko Medved – Colorado State Head Coach

Why Iowa will look at him:

Medved is the third guy on this list to coach at Drake.  He was only there one season before he left for Colorado State and DeVries took over the Bulldogs. He did well enough that season to get the promotion to Colorado State and he’s been pretty solid there.  He’s mostly coached in the Midwest and he’s originally from Minneapolis.

Why it won’t be him:

He went to college at the University of Minnesota and was an assistant there for a short time and Minnesota just fired their head coach Ben Johnson.  Unless Iowa seriously outbids the Gophers for Medved because they strike out on other candidates, he’s going to be Minnesota’s head coach next year. 

Chris Collins – Northwestern Head Coach

Why him?

Collins has been at Northwestern for a decade and he may have maxed out what that program could be.  He took them to an NCAA tournament, something they had never done.  He’s a Chicago guy after growing up there when his dad Doug Collins was coaching the Bulls.  He’s well respected in the Chicago area and it would be awesome if Iowa could get some Chicagoland recruits to consider the Hawkeyes from time to time.  He is only 50 years old so if he wants to make a change, now would be the time. 

Why if won’t be him:

Rarely do coaches move from one conference team to another, although that may change as conferences keep growing and excluding coaches from your own conference might really limit your choices.  He is probably higher on Beth Goetz’s list than I have him but I’m not sure she gets this far down the list. 

Ryan Odom – VCU Head Coach

Why him?

He’s a little outside the box since he’s more of an east coast guy but he can coach some ball.  VCU just won the Atlantic 10 title in his second year.  He has the pedigree, his father was a long-time college coach Dave Odom who had a lot of success at Wake Forest.  Ryan was also the head coach at UMBC when they were a 16 seed in the NCAA tournament a few years ago and beat #1 seed Virginia.  The irony now is that he is the leading candidate to take over Virginia this off season after Tony Bennett, the National Championship winning former coach, left before the season because he was over coaching college basketball. 

Why it won’t be him:

He’s almost certainly going to just take the Virginia job, he knows the area really well.  Geographic knowledge helps when it comes to recruiting and Odom is well known and respected in the area.  If Beth has time, he’s worth a call.

The Dark Horse Candidate

Alan Huss – High Point Head Coach

Why him?

He’s a rising name in college basketball at a school no one knows.  He has a very tangential connection to Iowa but more so he’s connected to the Midwest area.  He’s originally from Kansas and played basketball at Creighton under Dana Altman.  He also later retuned to Creighton and was an assistant under Greg McDermott.  Before that is where his very loose Iowa connection comes in.  He was an assistant coach at New Mexico under Craig Neal who was an assistant at Iowa and New Mexico under Steve Alford.  How’s that for six degrees of separation. 

Why if won’t be him:

He’s been a head coach for two years at High Point.  This would take a serious leap of faith on the part of Beth Goetz and she would be putting her job on the line with this hire. 

This would be Iowa really settling for a guy just because he’s not Fran

Chris Jans – Mississippi St. Head Coach

Why him?

Mostly because he’s a Loras College graduate and an Iowa native.  He’s been pretty successful at Miss St. and that makes him a guy with success at the highest level of college coaching in the SEC.  If Iowa gets this far down the list, he’s not the worst choice.

Why it won’t be him:

In 2015 he was fired as head coach at Bowling Green after an incident in a bar where he was seen making “lewd and inappropriate behavior” towards some women at a campus bar.  It’s been ten years and he’s had two head coaching jobs without incident since then so maybe it shouldn’t be disqualifying, but for Iowa, it probably is.

Steve Forbes – Wake Forest Head Coach

Why him?

He’s a native of Lone Tree, IA and has had some success as a college head coach at places like East Tennessee State and a little at Wake Forest.  Mostly he’s been a high-level assistant under some good head coaches like Bruce Pearl and Gregg Marshall. 

Why it won’t be him:

If he was from some small town in any of the 49 other states, he wouldn’t be mentioned for the job.  I’m sure Iowa would be a dream job for him, I can’t imagine he’s high on Beth Goetz list and if Iowa hires Steve Forbes, people may rethink the firing Fran McCaffrey.   

The NBA guys that aren’t real candidates:

Nick Nurse, Nate Bjorkgren, and Ryan Bowen

All three of three of these guys are Iowa natives so I am required by law to include them. And I’ve literally received texts or messages asking about each of them from different people. 

-Nick Nurse hasn’t coached in college since the mid-90s except for the four days he was a Greg McDermott assistant at Iowa St. before McDermott left for Creighton, didn’t take Nurse with him and the new Iowa State coach then didn’t retain him.  He’s coached in Europe, the NBA G-League and been an assistant and now a two-time head coach in the NBA. He won an NBA title as coach of the Raptors and is currently the coach of the 76ers.  He’s likely going to get fired after this season as Philadelphia has been awful this year and someone has to take the blame.  He’s 57 years old and something tells me he’s not taking the Iowa job. 

-Nate Bjorkgren has been a long-time assistant coach in the NBA and he’s from Storm Lake, IA.  Weird that two coaches on this list have ties to Storm Lake.  He was Nurse’s assistant in Toronto when they won the NBA title together. He has never coached in college so this would be a strange move.  He had a one-year stint as an NBA head coach with the Indiana Pacers and it did not end well so he’s the longest of longshots. 

-Ryan Bowen would be the most likely of these three as he is not only an Iowa native but was also a really good player for the Hawkeyes before his nine year NBA career.  His coaching experience is mostly as an assistant with Mike Malone in both Sacramento and Denver.  He was an assistant with the Nuggets when they won the NBA title a couple of years ago. He did spend one year as the video coordinator for Fran McCaffrey at Iowa between stints as an assistant in the NBA. He’s worth a call for Beth Goetz if for some reason DeVries, McCollum, and a couple of others turn down the job. 

Should I throw in the obligatory BJ Armstrong mention?  One of the most famous and recognizable Hawkeyes of the past 40 years and he played with Michael Jordan in the NBA.  Sorry, people but BJ is 57 years old and has never coached.  He’s not starting now, let it go.    

2025 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

Post combine but before free agency.

Every year the NFL combine is one of the most polarizing events in the pre-draft run up and this year will be no different.  You don’t even have to work out to have a bad combine, just ask Shadeur Sanders.  Clarity comes in many forms, a guy is faster than you thought, a guy is slower than you hoped.  He doesn’t measure up, literally, or he has some bad interviews with teams.  This is the current narrative with Sanders, teams apparently didn’t like his attitude during interviews.  There have always been some mixed reviews about Sanders as he can be brash and arrogant, but those are traits that most QBs have to some extent. You kind of have to if you’re a top QB prospect.  Some teams will make moves with a veteran or deals start to come together before the league year starts next week and that will have some effect on the draft.  There are other things that have happened to change this mock draft so I’ll start with some news that changes things. 

Matthew Stafford is staying in LA with the Rams which means the Giants and Raiders had to either pivot to other veterans when free agency opens or they look to the draft.  The Raiders pivoted to a trade for Geno Smith from Seattle, which changes the calculus for the Raiders and the Seahawks. The Bears have traded for two new starting offensive guards in Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson so all those mock drafts with them taking Tyler Booker are out the window.  Alaric Jackson re-signed with the Rams meaning that’s one less option for the Patriots at LT so if they strike out with Ronnie Stanley, LT becomes the priority with the fourth pick. Tee Higgins got franchised again by the Bengals so the Patriots may have to look elsewhere in free agency for a WR or they look for one in the draft again.  Sam Darnold didn’t get franchised by the Vikings so he’s the top available veteran QB and could be in play for Tennessee, Cleveland, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, or all of the sudden, Seattle. Things will become clearer next week as teams start signing free agents but what’s the fun in waiting for that, lets Mock Draft. 

1. New York Giants (TRADE from Tennessee):  Cam Ward     QB      Miami

This starts with Tennessee making a move this next week at QB.  I think they are the dark horse to sign Darnold and then they can look to move the first pick for some draft capital.  They don’t want to drop too far, they made it clear they want one of the best players in the draft, that means either Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter.  They move down to three and let the Giants come up to get their QB.  Ward can be a Brian Daboll’s mini-version of Josh Allen only he won’t have to fix Ward’s accuracy, he’s pretty accurate.  Ward isn’t as big as Allen but he has some movement skills and he has all the throws in his bag that make him a legit NFL QB.  He doesn’t lack for confidence in his arm and he will allow Daboll to unlock all the parts of the offense in New York.  And he’ll make Malik Nabers very happy. 

2. Cleveland Browns (3-14):  Abdul Carter     Edge     Penn St.

The Browns seem adamant they are not trading Myles Garrett and I tend to believe them because there just isn’t a deal out there that seems feasible.  Trading him for two late first round picks and some other picks doesn’t seem like enough and its only really good teams that would trade for him so you’re not getting top draft choices.  Either way, I think they take Carter to either pair with Garrett on the defensive line and/or as a hedge against eventually losing him either in a trade or free agency.  Carter has a stress reaction in his foot (whatever that means) and it will need to be thoroughly checked out but I don’t think it will end up hurting his draft stock.  He’s one of the two blue chip prospects in this draft and Cleveland would be lucky to land him.  I also think this is where Kirk Cousins ends up as stopgap at QB so they don’t take one this early. 

3. Tennessee Titans (TRADE from NY Giants): Travis Hunter     CB/WR     Colorado

The Titans pick up a third rounder this year and another pick next year to move down two spots and they still get arguably the best player in the draft.  Hunter can be the CB1 this team needs after L’Jarius Snead wasn’t everything they thought he could be.  He’s also the CB1 they wished they had gotten when they drafted Caleb Farley a couple of years ago.  He can also be a part-time WR to give them some juice opposite Calvin Ridley for a new QB, Sam Darnold or otherwise.  New GM Mike Borgonzi and the new front office said they didn’t want to pass on a generational prospect, well, here’s the generational prospect and you picked up two more picks, that’s good process. 

4. New England Patriots (4-13):  Will Campbell     OT     LSU

Alaric Jackson is off the market and as much as I think they will make a major offer to Ronnie Stanley, I think he goes back to Baltimore.  He’s been there a long time, he’s an older player, and unless the money difference is ridiculous, he’s going to stick with the team that is closer to winning a Super Bowl while he’s still playing.  That puts OT as the #1 need for this team.  Armand Membou from Missouri put on an athletic show at the combine and is getting buzz as the OT1 in this draft.  Sorry but he played RT for three years and I’m not going through the “we can move him to LT and he’ll be fine” stuff again after last year.  Membou’s arms are about ¾ of an inch longer than Campbell’s, I don’t care.  Will Campbell started as a freshman and has started for three years at LT at LSU playing against SEC competition and has been awesome. Don’t overthink it, take Campbell and he can be Drake Mays blindside protector for the next decade. 

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13):  Mason Graham     DT     Michigan

The Jaguars need high end talent and Graham is one of the best players in this draft.  He measured in with shorter than ideal arms at the combine, so what?  Watch this guy play at Michigan and he causes mayhem wherever he lines up.  They need help on the interior of the defensive line as they are a little thin there.  Graham would make life easier for Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen and he even has the versatility to line up outside a bit and they can play with moving Walker around.  He doesn’t look like the prototypical DT body type with his big barrel chest and short arms but he makes it work.  Jacksonville has plenty of work to do but at this point, taking the best player available is the smart move instead of reaching to fill a need. 

6. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE from Las Vegas):  Armand Membou     OL     Missouri

This would be a shocking trade given Kyle Shanahan rarely invests draft capital this high in offensive linemen but Membou helps them tremendously.  He can step in this season as the LG to replace Aaron Banks and then be the eventual replacement for Trent Williams at LT.  Membou is a very athletic player which fits Shanahan’s blocking scheme and giving him a year to learn the left side at guard next to the best LT in football would make a smoother transition.  It would take a special talent to get Shanahan to do this and Membou might be that guy. Also, Trent Williams is going to be 37 next season and he’s extremely expensive.  With all the issues the 49ers have with salary right now and Brock Purdy’s extension on deck, they could use a cheap LT for a few years on a rookie deal.  They also make this deal because if the Jets don’t re-sign Morgan Moses, Membou is a player they could take a serious look at next.

7. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE from NY Jets):  Shemar Stewart     DE     Texas A&M

This is where things get really interesting, the Raiders trade out of six after trading for Geno Smith and passing on Shadeur Sanders and now the Jets do the same thing.  The Jets need a lot of help on defense, their entire secondary not named Sauce Gardner, are all free agents.  They need picks to rebuild this roster and if they aren’t convinced Sanders is a good fit for Aaron Glenn or New York, they can trade down.  The Falcons need help in the front seven of their defense and they have gone back and forth between a 3-4 and a 4-3 defense too many times and guys don’t fit the scheme when they change.  Stewart didn’t produce sacks in college but he did produce pressure and he can play multiple spots up front.  He lost weight so he looked fast at the combine coming in at 267 lbs. but he played last year at 281 so he can be whatever they need him to be.  Their offense should be ready to go, the defense needs reinforcements so they move up for Stewart who made himself some money at the combine. 

8. Carolina Panthers (5-12): Tetairoa McMillan     WR     Arizona

The Panthers somehow salvaged Bryce Young in the last half of the season and Xavier Legette became a solid rookie WR with him.  They like Jalen Coker too but they need a true WR1 and that’s McMillan.  He’s a big, tall outside WR with a great catch radius and he’ll make Young’s life a whole lot easier.  When in doubt, Young can throw it up and McMillan is more likely than not to come down with it.  This team needs playmakers and McMillan is the best one in the draft.  They could use some help on defense for sure but this is a deeper draft on the defensive line and they can wait until their second-round pick to grab a pass rusher. 

9. New Orleans Saints (5-12):  Will Johnson     CB     Michigan

The Saints are in salary cap hell and they need a lot of help on defense.  Those two things don’t mesh well so they have to start somewhere.  Most have them looking for defensive line help but they also need a CB to start.  New defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is a defensive backs coach at heart and they traded away Marshon Lattimore last season and they probably don’t have the money to re-sign Paulsen Adebo, that leaves Kool-Aid McKinstry as their only solid starting outside CB.  Will Johnson didn’t have a great season at Michigan and teams may wonder about his top-end speed but he’s a player and he’s a starter immediately in the NFL next season.  They could take a chance on a guy like Jalon Walker (he’s a little small for their tastes), Mykel Williams (they do like oversized DE’s who aren’t all that productive in college), or they could go for a guy who seems like more a sure thing, that’s Johnson.  Sometimes it’s best to just draft a good football player. 

10. Chicago Bears (5-12):  Mike Green     DE     Marshall

Ben Johnson isn’t messing around with his offensive line overhaul as the Bears already worked two trades to pick up Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson to be their new starting guards, that solves that problem.  The next big issue is getting Montez Sweat some help rushing the passer.  Mike Green is a little out of sight, out of mind at the moment, after not participating at the combine.  However, he had a good Senior Bowl week and he’s a legit pass rusher off the edge.  He plays with more power than you would think for a guy his size and I think Dennis Allen will be able to work with that.  There’s a little part of me that wanted to give Ben Johnson Ashton Jeanty at RB and if the Bears sign a DE in free agency, that might be where my next mock draft goes. 

11. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from San Francisco):  Ashton Jeanty     RB     Boise St. 

This is where things get dicey for Shadeur Sanders, trading for Geno Smith wouldn’t preclude them from drafting Sanders.  However, if they pass on him after trading down, look out, the free fall could be real.  Smith an immediate upgrade from what they ran out there last season at QB.  Jeanty would be a huge upgrade from what they ran out there at RB last season too. Geno Smith, with Jeanty and Brock Bowers is the beginning of a much better offense than they had last season. If they add a good WR at some point, the offense starts to get really interesting.    

12. Dallas Cowboys (7-10): Kelvin Banks Jr.     OL     Texas

The Cowboys need a RB and a WR but they also just lost future Hall of Famer Zack Martin at guard and the offensive line is paramount to their success.  The jury seems split on Banks but he’s a good prospect at guard or tackle.  He could be an immediate starter at guard to replace Martin but he’s also a nice hedge against Tyler Guyton having any development issues at LT and if Terrence Steele doesn’t regain his form at RT, Banks could help there too.  The Cowboys have never shied away from taking offensive linemen in round one and this would be a solid choice for them. 

13. Miami Dolphins (8-9):  Nick Emmanwori     S     South Carolina

The Dolphins look to be pivoting in their secondary as both starting safeties from last season are free agents, Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer.  Holland is going to get a big free agent deal somewhere and Poyer is an aging player.  I’m not the biggest Emmanwori guy because I think he needs to go to a place that has a plan to use him.  He’s a great athlete who is either a really big safety or a small LB.  The Dolphin’s defensive coordinator is Anthony Weaver who cut his teeth in Baltimore and the Ravens know a thing or two about using safeties well.  If Weaver can find a plan, Emmanwori can be a very additive piece to the Dolphin’s secondary.  I probably wouldn’t take Emmanwori this high but after is combine showing and looking at the fit and the need in Miami, this pairing seems plausible.    

14. Indianapolis Colts (8-9):  Tyler Warren     TE     Penn St. 

This is may be the most common mock draft pairing across the internet.  That’s because it makes a ton of sense.  The Colts don’t have a great TE and Anthony Richardson could use all the help he can get.  Warren is a supreme athlete and he’ll be a really good all-around TE.  The team needs playmakers and Warren is a playmaker.  Warren is 6’6 255 lbs. and runs like a deer.  He will give Richardson a big over-the-middle target and make his life a little easier. 

15. New York Jets (TRADE from Atlanta): Jahdae Barron     DB     Texas

The Jets secondary is going to need a complete overhaul.  Sauce Gardner is the only returning player of note and that means they need a starting outside CB, a nickel back, and two starting safeties.  Barron is the jack of all trades player in the secondary.  Depending on what they do in free agency he could be the starting outside guy opposite Gardner, or the nickel corner.  He can also play safety and while he was more of a zone guy at Texas I think Aaron Glenn will like his feistiness as a guy who doesn’t back down.  Barron could be for the Jets what Glenn made Brian Branch in Detroit, and that’s useful for any defense.  Barron’s best spot is a nickel who can be moved all over the field. 

16. Arizona Cardinals (8-9):  Jalon Walker     LB     Georgia

The Cardinals need playmakers on defense and Walker may be a bit of a tweener but he’s a playmaker.  He would fit their scheme pretty well as a pass rushing LB who can also play off ball and be guy who just gets to the QB when they need it.  Walker has his fans and his detractors but at the midpoint of the first round he’s a really good value pick.  The Cardinals defense needs all the help it can get and Jonathan Gannon is a smart defensive mind who should find ways to use Walker’s skills to the fullest. 

17. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8):  Jihaad Campbell     LB     Alabama

Trey Hendrickson is the best player on the Bengals defense and he’s been given permission to seek a trade.  Germaine Pratt is one of the better players and he’s requested a trade.  This defense was bad last year and if those two guys are gone things get ugly.  Campbell is a hybrid LB/edge player depending on who you ask and this defense needs anybody who can make a play.  He’s a little raw but he’s worth a gamble for a team that needs all the help they can get on defense.  If there was an elite edge rusher or CB left, I would put them here but Mykel Williams is a gamble similar to other ones they have taken at DE that haven’t worked out.  That feels like to big of a risk.  At worst Campbell is just a damn good LB.

18. Seattle Seahawks (10-7):  Shadeur Sanders     QB     Colorado

The Seahawks may be in luck after trading away Geno Smith if Sanders falls this far.  The reviews from the combine were not great about Sanders’ interviews but he’s well worth a shot at this point in the draft.  The real question is will his fall end here or do the Seahawks take Jaxson Dart, who seems to be closing in on Sanders to be QB2 in this class.  New Seahawks offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak is from the Shanahan school of offense so Sanders’ skill set would be a good fit.  He’s not the most physically talented player but he’s highly accurate and throws a nice deep ball.  I have said before, he’s somewhere between Brock Purdy and Jared Goff, that’s a good fit for the offense. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7):  Mykel Williams     Edge     Georgia

The Buccaneers are losing most of their edge rushers, that’s not a bad thing since the ones they are losing aren’t great.  Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Shaq Barrett haven’t been the most effective guys and while Anthony Nelson is a solid backup, they need more opposite Yaya Diaby.  Williams is a stud athlete who just never produced at Georgia like you would think his athleticism would allow.  That could be rectified if used as an true edge rusher and not a DE like he was at Georgia.  This would be a bet on potential but Williams might be worth it. 

20. Denver Broncos (10-7):  Omarion Hampton     RB     North Carolina

This one might surprise some people but Hampton had a great combine and the Broncos need a RB.  Javonte Williams has never been the same since his knee injury a couple years ago and he’s a free agent.  The team has some guys but none of them stepped up last season.  Hampton is a bell cow type of back; he can handle a major workload.  He’s big, physical, fast and he has enough skill as a pass catcher to be an every down back.  Sean Payton found his QB last season, this year he gets his answer at RB.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7):  Matthew Golden     WR     Texas

Golden had a good combine while Luther Burden III was fine but unspectacular and Emeka Egbuka didn’t test in Indianapolis.  He feels like the guy with momentum at this point and the Steelers desperately need WR help.  They could look at Jaxson Dart but drafting a QB that might be a reach in the early 20s of the draft feels a little too soon after the Kenny Pickett debacle and the Steelers seem like they want a veteran instead.  Golden would give whoever plays QB a better chance to succeed because he’s a nice complement to George Pickens.  He’s not the biggest WR but he has speed and runs good routes, that’s a nice combination if you can get it. 

22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6):  James Pearce Jr.     OLB     Tennessee

The reviews are really mixed on Pearce at this point.  No one doubts his traits and what he brings as a pass rusher but there are serious questions about him off the field.  There were some things about his time at Tennessee that will give teams pause, however, there are also those who say his issues were about the environment at Tennessee for him.  The Chargers cut Joey Bosa to save a ton of money and Khalil Mack is a free agent, they need pass rush help.  Jim Harbaugh is no stranger to guys who have some questionable character traits but he believes in his own culture enough to think he can help them overcome those issues.  I can see Harbaugh taking a chance on a guy if he thinks he can get the best out of him.  If Pearce has his head on straight and plays to his talent, he’s a star. 

23. Green Bay Packers (11-6):  Kenneth Grant     DT     Michigan

The Packers don’t have a lot of losses coming in free agency so there are not a ton of clear holes to fill.  DT TJ Slaton is a free agent and he’s the one big body they have at the position.  Also, Kenny Clark has been great for them but he’ll be 30 this year and he’s quite expensive.  They like Devonte Wyatt and Karl Brooks, the two backup DTs for now but neither of them is very big.  Grant is a space eater who can push the pocket from time to time.  He’s 6’4 330 lbs. and can be immovable, he would give them a good, young DT who keeps the LBs clean and makes life easier for the pass rushers on the edge. 

24. Minnesota Vikings (14-3):  Derrick Harmon     DL     Oregon

The Vikings have a couple of free agents on their defensive line and they weren’t exactly stacked there to begin with.  Harmon is 6’5 313 lbs. and can play anywhere on the line in any formation and he’ll be an effective player.  He hasn’t gotten as much attention as some others but he’s the type of lineman Brian Flores will love because he can use him anywhere and move him where he’s most effective.  He’ll find matchups whether it’s inside or outside and Harmon will create havoc.  He makes the front seven a tougher matchup across the board. 

25. Houston Texans (10-7):  Tyler Booker     OG     Alabama

The Texans offensive line was pretty awful at times last year and got a little better when they moved Tytus Howard to guard and played Blake Fisher at RT.  They still need more help inside because it looks like they are cutting Shaq Mason at RG.  Booker was one of the least athletic players at the combine and it took him out of being a top half of the first-round type of player.  That said, he’s an excellent guard who plays with power and precision and is always where he’s supposed to be.  He gets the highest marks from teams when it comes to character and leadership and that will mean something to DeMeco Ryans.  He’s a plug and play guy at OG and he’ll make the offensive line a lot better for CJ Stroud and especially for the running game.  

26. Los Angeles Rams (10-7):  Walter Nolen     DT     Ole Miss

The Rams drafted Jared Verse and Braden Fiske as their first two picks last year and they hit on both of them.  Along with Kobie Turner, who they hit on a couple of years ago, they have some really good building blocks in the front seven.  They may lose Bobby Brown III in free agency this off season so getting a guy like Nolen would really help them.  Nolen is a truly talented interior defensive lineman who would fit between Turner and Fiske and really juice their interior pocket pressure.  This team hasn’t invested much in the secondary lately but Nolen is a better prospect than the CBs and safeties here so they go best player available over trying to fill a bigger need. 

27. Baltimore Ravens (12-5): Malaki Starks     S      Georgia

This would be right up the Raven’s alley.  Starks is one of the better football players in this draft but he went to the combine and looked like a pedestrian athlete competing against Nick Emmanwori.  The problem is he’s a better football player and this is why the Ravens always draft so well.  Marcus Williams is a free agent and while Ar’Darius Washington stepped up last year when Williams was out, he’s also a restricted free agent.  Whether they re-sign Washington or not, they need another safety so they can move Kyle Hamilton back to the position where they move him all over creation.  Starks is a great football player who plays the game faster than he runs and sees things and reacts with elite instincts for the game.  He and Hamilton would be a nightmare pairing for the rest of the league. 

28. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Detroit):  Josh Simmons     OT     Ohio St.

The Chiefs franchise tagged RG Trey Smith, traded LG Joe Thuney and seemingly are set up to move Kingsley Suamataia to LG after he failed to take the LT position.  This leaves them spending a lot of money on Trey Smith, C Creed Humphrey, and RT Jawaan Taylor so they need to save some money at LT.  Simmons was on his way to being a top half of the first-round player before he hurt his knee.  Assuming all medical checks come back fine, he’s well worth a late first round pick here.  The Chiefs make a small move up to get him ahead of Washington potentially looking for an OT or another team moving up.  Simmons is an immediate starter assuming his knee is good and he’s the best LT they have had since the best days of Eric Fisher. 

29. Washington Commanders (12-5):  Luther Burden III     WR     Missouri

The Commanders are clearly invested in making the most of Jayden Daniels and they proved that by trading for Deebo Samuel from San Francisco. They have money to spend in free agency but I think they invest that on defense and try to build out the offense in the draft.  Deebo is a nice veteran but he gets hurt a lot and they need more than one WR.  They have Terry McLaurin as their WR1 and then a bunch of free agents they hope to improve upon.  Burden had a tough year at Missouri but he’s a true talent and he’s dangerous with the ball in his hands.  I think he could have a better year than Deebo and become a favorite target for Daniels.  They could look for a LT but Brandon Coleman did a solid job last year and they can wait to address the offensive line needs. 

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE from Buffalo):  Colston Loveland     TE     Michigan

The Jaguars have a lot picks in this draft and they trade their second-round pick (36th overall) and maybe a fourth rounder to move back into the end of round one to get Loveland.  The Jaguars just cut Evan Engram for salary cap purposes and he has been one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets.  If they are looking to get the best out of Lawrence, they need to give him all the help they can get and Loveland is an excellent TE.  He would be a good middle of the field target while Brian Thomas Jr. is a outside deep threat.

31. Detroit Lions (TRADE from Kansas City):  Grey Zabel     IOL     North Dakota St.

The Lions pick up a later round pick from Kansas City and still end up with a starting offensive lineman they likely would have taken at 28.  Zabel can step into the RG spot that Kevin Zeitler is likely vacating as a free agent and he starts the process of the Lions getting younger on the interior offensive line.  Zeitler is 35 and LG Graham Glasgow will be 33 this year.  C Frank Ragnow is going to be 29 and his body has taken a beating over the years.  Zabel is good insurance in case Ragnow hangs it up earlier than expected at some point in the next couple of seasons.  The Lions know the value of their awesome offensive line and the worst thing they can do is let it start to fall apart.  Zabel is a nice investment for the future. 

32. Cleveland Browns (TRADE from Philadelphia): Jaxson Dart     QB     Ole Miss

The Browns have the 33rd pick and there’s no chance Philadelphia would take Dart so why make this trade?  Well, they pick up the 5th year option on a rookie QB contract by drafting Dart in the first round and not the second.  The Browns have 12 picks in this draft including five sixth rounders, flip one to Philadelphia and you get added time for a rookie QB.  This also matches up because I think they sign Kirk Cousins as a cheap veteran free agent and this pick gives them a guy who can sit and learn behind Cousins for a couple of years if necessary and the that make the 5th year option that much more important.  The Browns get a cheap veteran in Cousins, a cheap rookie in Dart and have remade their QB position without spending too much money or a lot of draft capital.  This is how you move on while having to eat Deshaun Watson’s stupid contract.       

Pre-Combine Notes

The NFL Combine is coming up this week and there should be some interesting players that will be weighed and measured, and hopefully they will actually work out.  The top players at the positions rarely work out and it’s a safe assumption that happens again this year.  There are some guys who can really help themselves if they work out and do well.  The flip side is you can hurt yourself if you don’t do well.  I’m going to give you a little primer on who could help themselves (or not) this week at the combine.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Milroe (Alabama)- He has the opportunity to show off his elite athleticism, which is something everyone knows he has but when you do it in front of them, it leaves a lasting impression.  I’m not a Milroe guy because I have a lot of questions about him in the passing game but he could move into the QB3 spot of this draft with an impressive showing in Indy.

Will Howard (Ohio St.)- One of the more intriguing QBs after he led Ohio St. to a National Championship.  Howard is 6’4 236 lbs. and he shows good accuracy. He’s more mobile that he gets credit for because he’s pretty big. He doesn’t want to run with the ball but he can move out of the pocket and throw on the run. 

Tyler Shough (Louisville)- Shough (pronounced like Shuck) will be 26 years old in September, he’s been in college 7 years.  He started at Oregon, went to Texas Tech, and ended up at Louisville.  When he throws at the combine, he’s going to make all the others look bad, he’s got arguably the best arm in the class.  He might scare off a few of the more notable players from throwing because they don’t want to look bad in comparison. 

Kyle McCord (Syracuse)- The guy who left Ohio St. and had a great year at Syracuse could make himself some money if he looks good at the combine.  He didn’t dominate the Shrine Bowl like some expected but he was good and if he carries that momentum into the combine, he could move up the board. 

Running Backs

Quinshon Judkins (Ohio St.) – Judkins transferred to Ohio St. last year after dominating for a couple of years at Ole Miss.  He moved into a timeshare with Treveyon Henderson and while they were both good it didn’t let either really dominate during the season.  Henderson was the speed guy while Judkins was the power back. Judkins showed in the National Championship game that he can be a dominate back.  He’s fallen behind a number of guys in this draft but someone is going to get a great back on day two.  He could really move up too if he shows some of the skills people forgot he had this last season. 

Kyle Monangai (Rutgers) – Monangai is listed at 5’9 209 lbs. but no one who has ever tried to tackle him would believe that.  He’s one of the toughest runners in college football and his game will translate to the pros.  He needs to prove to teams he has some speed and elusiveness that he rarely showed at Rutgers.  He’s a true power runner but he can do a little more than that.  If he can outperform expectations in the 40, the broad jump, or the vertical, just to prove some explosiveness, it will help his draft stock.

Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) – There is no doubt he has everything you want in the run game, speed, power, vision, patience, it’s all there.  The one thing that Iowa didn’t use Johnson for enough was in the pass game.  He has good hands and I believe he’s a complete back but there just isn’t a lot on film showing different aspects of catching the ball.  The pass catching drills for the RBs could be huge for Johnson’s stock. 

Wide Receivers

Luther Burden III (Missouri)– I’m not certain Burden will work out but I think he should.  He had a less than stellar season at Missouri, but it wasn’t his fault.  He can go to the combine and show that he’s still the playmaker he was two years ago.  I’m seeing him fall behind guys like Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden, I like those guys but Burden has the higher upside as a true playmaker. 

Emeka Egbuka (Ohio St.) – Egbuka is the all-time leading WR at Ohio St. in most categories, it helps that he spent five years there.  He was never the #1 guy and he’s not going to be a WR1 in the NFL but he’s an awesome #2.  He can move up the boards by showing off his athleticism, which is an underrated part of his game.  Most see him as a great route runner and steady presence.  He has more agility and body control that make him really good at the route running and gives him an opportunity to make tough catches.

Tez Johnson (Oregon) – He’s going to blaze the 40-yard dash because he has elite speed, but it would help if he does it weighing someone over 160 lbs.  He was 156 at the Senior Bowl and that was all anyone wanted to talk about.  Being fast is great but too many teams will take him off their board if he’s in the 155 lbs. range. 

Tory Horton (Colorado St.) – Horton played at Nevada and Colorado St. and was really productive at each place but he’s been injured lately.  He missed most of this last season and he will need the medical checks to come back clean.  Whoever ends up with Horton later in the draft is going to get very productive player who should outperform his draft slot. 

Arian Smith (Georgia) – Speed, speed, and more speed. Smith is going to try to break Xavier Worthy’s combine record in the 40 and he’s sure to run in the 4.2’s.  He’s never been the best WR from a production standpoint but teams won’t be drafting him because he’s a productive player, it’s because his speed is enticing.  I’m not his biggest fan but he’ll be the talk of the combine if he gets close to Worthy’s time. 

Savion Williams (TCU) – He’s also known as the other TCU WR.  Jack Bech was the productive WR at TCU and he should go higher than Williams but Williams is very intriguing.  He’s 6’5 225 lbs. and he has speed and agility all day.  Unfortunately, he’s very underdeveloped from a skill prospective and his hands are inconsistent.  If he looks good catching the ball and running routes, someone might take a flyer on him way earlier than anyone expects. 

Tight Ends

Harold Fannin Jr. (Bowling Green) – This guy as highly productive in college, as a matter of fact, he was so productive some people think he’s a WR not a TE.  He’s undersized for a TE or oversized as WR, not sure which is truer.  At the combine, teams are going to try to figure that out. Can he block well enough to play TE or is he only a receiving TE?  He doesn’t have the size to be a great blocker but technique and willingness can go a long way towards being a competent blocker at TE.      

Luke Lachey (Iowa) – Lachey had a rough year coming off a major injury the year before, having Iowa changing the offense, and having pretty ugly QB play all year. Lachey is a talented athlete with great size and great hands.  It’s a good TE class so he needs to stand out at the combine and make teams go back and watch him before his injury and before Iowa’s offense was a disaster, he was really good back then.

Offensive Line

Will Campbell (LSU) – Campbell’s combine results only matter as far as his arm length.  Teams are concerned he won’t have arms over the minimum 33-inches teams like for offensive tackles.  If he’s at 33 or above, they will largely forget about it.  If it’s under 33, then it becomes a conversation about him becoming a guard.  I don’t care all that much but teams seem to care a lot.  I would take him covering Drake Maye’s blindside for the next decade.   

Charles Grant (William & Mary) – Grant is a small school prospect who’s 6’4 300 lbs. so he’s also a bit small for a LT.  He makes up for his size deficiency with his athleticism.  He’s the perfect fit in zone blocking scheme because of his movement skills.  Not everyone is going to like him but he’s going to be impressive when he works out. 

Josh Conerly Jr. (Oregon) – Conerly is another guy who will be quite the athletic specimen at OT but he also has the requisite size to be a legitimate starting LT next season.  Conerly is not a refined player and he’s going to have his growing pains but the combine could be his showcase if he works out. 

Josh Simmons (Ohio St.) – This is all about his medical evaluation.  He had a torn patellar tendon early last season but he looked quite good leading up to that point. He has the size and athleticism everyone wants in LT, there’s just questions about the knee and the fact he doesn’t have a lot of starts at the power 4 level, he transferred into Ohio St. 

Defensive Line

Darius Alexander (Toledo) – Alexander had a really good Senior Bowl week proving he could hang with the big boys after playing at Toledo. He’s an athletic guy for size and while this is a deep defensive line class, Alexander stands out.  If he continues to stand out at the combine, he’ll keep moving up the DT board. 

The Big Boys; Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M), Kenneth Grant (Michigan), Deone Walker (Auburn), Alfred Collins (Texas), Omarr Norman-Lott (Tennessee) – It’s always fun to watch the freaky big guys run the 40 and do the drills and realize just how unbelievably athletic these guys can actually be.  These are the truly scary athletes, Shemar Stewart is a 6’6 290 lbs. DE who could run 4.5 in the 40, that’s incredible.  And I guarantee you one of these guys is going to do something incredible in one the drills or something like the vert or broad jump.  Fun times.

The speed rushers; James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee), Jalon Walker (Georgia), Mike Green (Marshall), Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College), Princely Umanmielen (Ole Miss), Landon Jackson (Arkansas), Josiah Stewart (Michigan) – This group is going to need to workout to stand out from each other.  There are so many good edge rushers in this class these guys need to show out to put themselves in position to be drafted before the others.  Abdul Carter is the top edge rusher and that’s not a question but who’s #2 might have a bunch of different answers at the moment and the combine is the chance these guys need to prove it should be them. 

Linebackers

Demetrius Knight Jr. (South Carolina) – Knight is a 6’2 245 lbs. run stuffer who is a little stiff and doesn’t move great laterally.  He lacks pass coverage instincts and shouldn’t be counted on to do that to much.  His workout is about showing he’s improved his agility and fluidity. 

Carson Schwesinger (UCLA) – He’s the opposite of Knight, he’s speedy, fluid, and sometimes looks like he was shot out of a cannon.  He’s got good coverage ability because of those traits and he’s pretty good at blitzing even though he lacks size.  At 6’2 226 lbs. he can get overwhelmed in the run game but he can be a good player if used correctly.

Defensive Backs

Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina) – Emmanwori is going to dominate at the combine, that’s what elite athletes do.  For me, it’s the position drills that will be interesting.  Is he fluid enough and comfortable enough to play safety full-time or is he a tweener, between a safety and LB.  His athletic testing scores are going to impress everyone, can he be a useful football player and not just a great athlete. 

Jahdae Barron (Texas) – Here’s the opposite of Emmanwori, Barron is an awesome football player no matter where you put him but his testing numbers and measurements aren’t going to impress.  He won’t be the tallest, strongest, fastest, or the longest DB prospect but he’s going to be really good anyway.  If he can show some of the athleticism teams want to see, it will help him immensely. 

Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame) and Shavon Revel Jr. (East Carolina) – These two need their medical checks to go well.  If Morrison’s hip injury is a question, he falls from round one pretty easily.  Revel had a less worrisome knee injury but teams can be scared off when a guy has any leg injury as a DB. 

Trey Amos (Ole Miss) and Azareye’h Thomas (Florida St.) – These are the two guys most likely to benefit if Morrison and Revel fall due to injury concerns.  They can help themselves by having good workouts in Indy.  Both have good size and coverage ability and if one out performs the other, he could move up draft boards significantly. 

Off season QB Carousel

The QB Carousel Spins

This off season is going to be quite interesting when it comes to the QB carousel.  There are 11 or 12 teams with QB questions heading into this off season that need to be addressed soon.  They break down into different groups depending on their level of need and how soon they have to deal with the question.  The good news is there are some answers out there, the bad news is not everyone is going to find one to their liking.  Some team could end up in a situation similar to the Raiders this last season with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder as their options, the Raiders hope it isn’t them again. 

Tier 1- (teams not bringing back their main starter from 2024): Cleveland, New York Giants, New York Jets, Las Vegas, and probably Pittsburgh.

Tier 2- (teams that don’t want to bring back their starter from 2024 but might have to): Tennessee and New Orleans

Tier 3- (teams that may be looking for a change but it has to be an upgrade): Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, Indianapolis

Tier 4- (team that might not want to move on but might move on): LA Rams 

The way this all shakes out will be determined by the players and where they end up wanting to go.  Everyone has a reason for wanting to end up somewhere.  A better contract, a new location, a coaching staff, a chance to start, a new beginning, not every player’s motivations are the same.  QB moves will happen in three phases.  Phase one is free agency and trades that happen in the new league year that starts in March.  Phase two is the draft, that’s where teams that missed on their free agent targets will try to find a young solution so they can sell hope, to the fan base or the ownership, depending on their circumstances. And phase three is when you strike out on the first two phases and you have to decide if you want Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph  These things tend to happen like dominoes.  The biggest domino generally has to fall first (or not fall at all) before everything else happens.  The first domino is Matthew Stafford and the Rams.  I’m going to break this down in steps and try to go in order of how things fall, it’s not a perfect sequence as some things don’t affect others as much but I’ll point out if there are effects. 

The first and second dominos could be linked. The Rams have to figure out if they are sticking with Stafford and how long they want him around.  Stafford has to figure out how long he plans on playing, he’s 37 and while he’s staying relatively healthy the last couple of years, it doesn’t get easier.  The Rams may feel this is a good time to move on while they can still get draft capital from a team hoping to win now with Stafford at QB and while they may have a solution available to them.  I see three viable options, the Giants, who need to win now for their coach and GM, the Steelers, who need a real QB solution, and the Vikings, who need a bridge to JJ McCarthy.  I think the Steelers and Giants need longer-term solutions.  Stafford maybe has two years left before it may be over.  That’s not great for Mike Tomlin or Brian Daboll because that means they are back in the same boat they are currently in pretty quickly.  The Steelers have been trying band-aids since Big Ben, they need an real plan.  The Giants would be putting Stafford behind a suspect offensive line, he may say no thanks to that.

 I think the smart move is for the Rams to deal Stafford to the Vikings.  The Vikings showed they are ready to win right now the way they played with Sam Darnold but they need an upgrade from Darnold.  Stafford is the upgraded version of Darnold but he’s older and isn’t a long-term impediment to JJ McCarthy.  The Vikings can pay Stafford for a couple of years while McCarthy comes back from injury and learns from a veteran.  Stafford had Kevin O’Connell as his coach in LA before O’Connell got the Vikings job so there’s a familiarity to the offense.  Stafford makes the Vikings a much tougher playoff team than Darnold did. 

Where does that leave the Rams?  Well, Sam Darnold will be a free agent and he’ll be 28 next season.  He’s a similar player physically to Stafford and showed he could run the McVay style offense that O’Connell runs in Minnesota.  Could McVay, the teacher, develop Darnold in a way that O’Connell, his student, couldn’t quite do?  McVay once got the Rams to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff, then won a Super Bowl with Stafford.  From a talent standpoint, Darnold is somewhere in between but probably closer to the Stafford ceiling than the Goff floor.  He would give the Rams a little more long-term stability if they were to sign him to a four- or five-year contract.  Stafford and Darnold might get similar yearly salaries but not the same amount of years. 

Stafford is the domino that has to fall to get a few things started because some teams aren’t going to make a move until they know where Stafford ends up.  It’s completely possible he goes nowhere but it’s feeling like the Rams want to make a move for some stability moving forward. He’s also important because I think if Darnold has his choice of places to go, LA would be the top of his list.  Playing for McVay in the system he just excelled in is the best possible outcome for his career.  Darnold will have plenty of suitors but the Rams situation is better than all of them except maybe staying in Minnesota and I don’t think the Vikings want to commit to him.

If Stafford and Darnold go off the board that doesn’t leave a lot for the teams that need immediate help.  The immediate true starter level veteran QBs will be Kirk Cousins, the Falcons have to cut him after already replacing him and no one is trading for that contract.  Derek Carr, if someone is desperate and is dumb enough to take on that contract.  The Saints need to trade Carr because they can’t take the salary cap hit they would incur if they cut him.  Russell Wilson, for the teams that get really desperate, and then Aaron Rodgers, for the teams that have lost their minds.  Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, and maybe Jacoby Brissett could be your starter if you’re just looking to punt on the year and wait for the 2026 NFL draft, which should be better at QB than this draft. 

It’s sad to say but Kirk Cousins is probably the next domino in the sequence.  He was not good for Atlanta last season but he was a 36-year-old guy coming off an Achilles tear, thinking he would be good was foolish.  Another year of rehab will certainly help but he has to be in the right system and he knows that.  Cousins is going to cash in on his contract from Atlanta when they cut him so he can play for a low salary for one year to rehab his game so he can try to cash in one last time next off season.  The Steelers feel like a team that should go get him, they are a win-now team but I don’t see the fit for them.  The best fit for Cousins is Cleveland where his former coach Kevin Stefanski is running the offense and Stefanski needs Cousins as much as Cousins needs Stefanski.  Stefanski needs a guy he can win with because he needs to win.  With Deshaun Watson likely out for the year and careening towards the end of his career, Stefanski gets his QB who can run his offense.  Cousins takes a low paying deal and plays in an offense he knows he can be good in.  If the Browns can get a veteran QB on the cheap they can spend draft capital and free agent money to fix their offensive line too.  Win-Win for everyone. 

The Giants might make a play for Cousins if Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen think they are one year from unemployment but I think if they strike out on a Stafford trade and don’t get Darnold, they are more likely to pivot to the draft and set their sights on Cam Ward at three overall.  The only other scenario I could see happening is they take a flyer on Russell Wilson for a year and then double back and take a QB in round two to develop for a year, someone like Jalen Milroe. 

The Steelers are the other team looking to win while they still have guys like TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick in their prime on defense.  They could go hard after Stafford or Darnold but it doesn’t feel like their style.  They should go get a real QB for the future but in this draft that’s hard to do.  I think they bring Justin Fields back and maybe grab a lottery ticket QB in the middle rounds of the draft like Quinn Ewers, Tyler Shough, or Will Howard.  It would give Fields competition, it would give the team some cover if Fields flops, and the investment wouldn’t preclude them from making a move in the 2026 draft to go after a guy like Drew Allar.  Smart teams look ahead and their coach and GM aren’t afraid of getting fired for a subpar year. 

Tennessee is in an interesting place.  They have the number one pick in a draft where taking a QB first overall looks like a decision that gets you fired.  They will be in play for Darnold, Cousins, and maybe Aaron Rodgers but that’s suicidal for Brian Callahan’s coaching career.  This feels like maybe a Russell Wilson spot with them still giving Will Levis a chance to compete with him.  If they pull off a move for Darnold I think they ship Levis to anyone who will give them a pick and if I were them in that scenario, I’m calling Sean McVay and seeing what the Rams might offer for Levis. 

The Raiders could be a real spoiler here for my whole theory on Stafford or Darnold if they make a major move for either one.  This felt like a Shadeur Sanders spot for sure in the draft until they hired 73-year-old Pete Carroll to coach the team.  Is Carroll going to wait around for Sanders to figure it all out?  That seems unlikely.  This is also a Russell Wilson spot if Carroll doesn’t want to wait for a draft pick.  Those two had a rough ending in Seattle but it ended up costing them both pretty heavily and perhaps they see they were better off together than apart. 

The Saints have to either trade Derek Carr, possible but unlikely, or they are stuck with him. They owe him too much money to cut him and they don’t have the ability to restructure enough money to fit his dead money on their cap even if they wanted to cut him.  If they trade him, it’s probably a year of Spencer Rattler before they can reset and draft a QB.  The good news is a first-year head coach Kellen Moore with Spencer Rattler as his QB means they are probably picking in the top three of the 2026 draft.  Of course, starting Carr probably means they are still picking in the top five.

The New York Jets have a new head coach and a new GM and they already told Aaron Rodgers to take a hike, smart move.  Now they need a QB but there aren’t any that really fit for them.  Cousins is an old QB coming off an Achilles tear, they already did that.  Sam Darnold, nope, they did that too.  They could try Russell Wilson but that feels like a strange pick.  They brought in Tanner Engstrand from the Lions to be their offensive coordinator.  I have a name that no one is talking about that I think could make some sense.  Engstrand worked in Detroit with Jared Goff who was pretty down in his career when he went there and Ben Johnson resurrected him.  There’s a guy who hasn’t been a starter in for years because he sucked the last couple times but he may still have something to prove.  He’s only 32 so he still has some time to resurrect his career, think Geno Smith in Seattle style.  Carson Wentz.  He just spent this last year as Patrick Mahomes’ backup playing for Andy Reid.  He’s taken his time as a back up and from a talent standpoint he was once a pretty good QB in Philly.  I could see him being a stopgap QB for a team like the Jets who are looking to reset.  Or they could start Tyrod Taylor, their current backup, and draft a second or third round QB who will replace Taylor by week 7, he’s used to that. 

Seattle has Geno Smith but I’m not sure a desperate team like the Steelers couldn’t talk Mike McDonald and John Schneider into trading him.  They would probably just start Sam Howell this season and draft a QB next year if they do that.  The Dolphins have to sign at least a better backup than they have had at any time in Tua’s tenure.  Oh, and they absolutely should draft Dillon Gabriel in round five or six, he’s Tua 2.0 but in a good way.  The Colts are going to roll into the season telling everyone how much they believe in Anthony Richardson going into year three with a full healthy off season but they better sign someone like Jacoby Brissett or Jamies Winston as the backup or their season could go off the rails really quickly. 

My predictions for what teams will do this off season at QB.

Minnesota- Trade for Matt Stafford, sign him to a two-year deal, let McCarthy learn.

LA Ram- Sign Sam Darnold (or trade Stafford for him if the Vikings franchise tag him), sign Darnold to a three-year deal like Baker Mayfield’s deal.

New York Giants- Strike out on all the veterans and settle for drafting Cam Ward #3 overall when the Titans and Browns pass on QBs.

Pittsburgh- Keep Justin Fields and draft a guy in the middle rounds.  Maybe they end up with Jalen Milroe, similar skillset to Fields, at least their QBs would be of the same mold.  This might be the sneaky Derek Carr team though.

Cleveland- Sign Kirk Cousins, he can play in Stefanski’s offense

New Orleans- they are stuck with Carr unless someone gets really desperate and then it’s Rattler

Las Vegas- Sign Russell Wilson and they draft Shadeur Sanders, it’s a two-fer.  Wilson is the bridge to Sanders who isn’t ready just yet. 

Tennessee- I’m running out of options.  They pass on QBs in the draft and settle on signing Drew Lock and keeping Will Levis and hoping those two can suck enough for them to have a high pick again next season.  Solid bet.  Poor Brian Callahan, he never had a chance, the new GM gets a new coach to go with a new QB next year.  It’s a vicious cycle in Tennessee.

New York Jets- Sign Carson Wentz and keep Tyrod Taylor, draft a guy like Tyler Shough in the middle rounds unless they really love Jordan Travis who sat out last season doing rehab as a rookie.

Seattle- Keep Geno Smith for this year but they draft a guy like Jaxson Dart fairly early. 

Indianapolis- signs Jacoby Brissett or Jameis Winston and one of them has to start because Richardson is either bad or injured, they regret taking Richardson 4th overall in that draft.

Miami- Saved this one for last.  Tua starts the year and by week three he is injured.  The team drafted Dillon Gabriel in round six but the owner wants to “win now” so they sign Aaron Rodgers who no one else wanted and is in forced retirement doing the McAfee show three times a week.  Rodgers gets hurt within two games and Gabriel has to start anyway and he’s running Mike McDaniel’s offense like a pro.  Tua returns so they reluctantly go back to Tua because he’s making so much money.  The Dolphins miss the playoffs and Mike McDaniel gets fired but is immediately hired by the Browns who fired Kevin Stefanski after the Kirk Cousins thing didn’t work out.  The new Browns GM is some former 49ers exec like Ran Carthon who knows McDaniel.  McDaniel immediately trades for Dillon Gabriel because the Browns are still extricating themselves from the Watson contract.  The Browns owners demand the new GM trade for soon-to-be 32-year-old Tyreek Hill because they just can’t stop themselves.  Not sure that offense is going to work in the Cleveland weather…wait…I’m certain it won’t.  Sorry, was that too much detail, this is how my mind works. 

The QB Carousel starts to spin in a few weeks when free agency starts and we can look back at these predictions and laugh…or cry if your team signs Aaron Rodgers.