2023 AFC West Draft Review

Denver Broncos

(63) Marvin Mims WR Oklahoma
(67) Drew Sanders LB Arkansas
(83) Riley Moss CB Iowa
(183) JL Skinner S Boise St.
(257) Alex Forsyth C Oregon

Immediate Impact: LB Drew Sanders, CB Riley Moss

The Broncos lost Dre’Mont Jones in free agency, the next time Randy Gregory plays every game in a season will be the first time Randy Gregory plays every game in a season, and Baron Browning isn’t a pass rusher. Vance Joseph needs pass rushers for his defense. Drew Sanders played inside LB at Arkansas, the Broncos have inside LBs. Sanders was a rush end at Alabama before transferring to Arkansas, Vance Joseph isn’t going to sit Sanders behind Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton when he needs pass rushers, Sanders is going to be a pass rusher here. The CB spot behind Pat Surtain II isn’t great on the outside. Riley Moss just keeps proving everyone who doubts him wrong, he could win the starting outside CB job opposite Surtain. It will be trial by fire because no one throws Surtain’s way, especially if there’s a white rookie CB on the other side (yep, I said it, everyone is thinking it so I said it). Moss won’t back down from the challenge.

Best Value: C Alex Forsyth

Lloyd Cushenberry III has been the starting center in Denver for a few years now, no one knows why except no one has beaten him out for the job. Here comes his best competition. Forsyth is a power blocking center who can open holes in the run game and Sean Payton is going to lean on his run game, not on Russell Wilson. Forsyth is coming for the starting job.

Sleeper: S JL Skinner

The Broncos have Justin Simmons at FS but for now Caden Sterns is the SS and he’s coming off an injury. JL Skinner was injured during the pre-draft process and didn’t fully work out but he’s a huge safety at 6’4 220 lbs. and could be a nice duo with Simmons.

Overall Analysis

The Broncos didn’t have a lot of draft picks after the Russell Wilson trade and they used some more capital to move up to get WR Marvin Mims. I almost listed Mims as an immediate impact guy but that only happens if they trade or bench Jerry Jeudy. Clearly, Sean Payton saw something he likes in Mims and he is a very good player but it’s a crowded spot right now. If Jeudy is moved, Mims numbers could skyrocket. He’s the smaller, speedy complement to Courtland Sutton that Jeudy just hasn’t been.

Sanders was a massive steal in round three if Vance Joseph uses his pass rushing skills to his advantage. Riley Moss has been underestimated plenty of times throughout his football career but he’s a very good player who loves to compete. If Skinner gets healthy, he can help this secondary and I don’t think it’s a coincidence Payton drafted a power blocking center. This is a small draft class with only five picks but I think all five could be meaningful players this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

(31) Felix Anudike-Uzomah Edge Kansas City
(55) Rashee Rice WR SMU
(92) Wanya Morris OT Oklahoma
(119) Chamarri Conner S Virginia Tech
(166) BJ Thompson DE Stephen F. Austin
(194) Keondre Coburn DT Texas
(250) Nic Jones CB Ball St.

Immediate Impact: DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah

When you’re the Super Bowl champs it’s hard for a rookie to have a big impact unless you have some injuries like KC had last year that let some rookies start in the secondary. However, this year the Chiefs are looking to replace Frank Clark at DE and while Charles Omenihu is a solid veteran, he doesn’t really get to the QB. Anudike-Uzomah isn’t built to be a full-time DE but he’s going to be a really good designated pass rusher. He gives them some juice off the edge opposite George Karlaftis who is more of a power player.

Best Value: None

I really think Anudike-Uzomah went a little early, not much but a little. Rice was higher than I liked him but at best he was right there. None of the guys were real value picks.

Sleeper: DT Keondre Coburn

The team lost Khalen Saunders in free agency leaving Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi pretty lonely in the middle of the defensive line. They signed Danny Shelton but he’s on his fourth team in four years and he’s about to turn 30, does he have much left? Coburn is a mammoth dude at 6’2 344 lbs. and he has a little pass rush to his game. He won’t wow anyone but he can be steady and give them some good snaps inside. If they decide not to pay Derrick Nnadi next year, Coburn could be the guy they move up next to Chris Jones.

Overall Analysis

Super Bowl champions can do a couple of things in the draft, replace free agents who got too expensive to keep, and draft for depth. Anudike-Uzomah replaces Frank Clark, Rashee Rice replaces JuJu Smith-Schuster, the rest are depth. OT Wanya Morris was an interesting pick. He’s almost like the team is trying the Lucas Niang thing again. I’m not a big Morris fan but he does have some flexibility and Andy Reid and offensive line coach Andy Heck are great line coaches. However, they have never been able to get Lucas Niang to fully develop. He’s had injuries that have slowed him down but Morris had a pre-draft injury issue, it’s feeling eerily similar.

Chamarri Conner and Nic Jones are third day defensive backs and while I don’t know a ton about them, I will say, after last year with Bryan Cook and Jaylen Watson, I’m not doubting Chiefs’ secondary draft picks. DE BJ Thompson is a small school pass rusher who they hope gives them a few flash plays a game. Coburn is a guy who they may actually need at DT.

Las Vegas Raiders

(7) Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech
(35) Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame
(70) Byron Young DT Alabama
(100) Tre Tucker WR Cincinnati
(104) Jakorian Bennett CB Maryland
(135) Aidan O’Connell QB Purdue
(170) Christopher Smith S Georgia
(203) Amari Burney LB Florida
(231) Nesta Jade Silvera DT Arizona St.

Immediate Impact: DE Tyree Wilson, TE Michael Mayer

Chandler Jones had a tough season and he’s 33 this year, Wilson might not start but he’ll play snaps like a starter and he’ll be way better than Jones was last year (and I’m not even a huge Wilson fan). Mayer’s fall into round two was inexplicable and the while TE wasn’t a huge need, when one this good falls to you, you take him. Mayer will play more and be better than Austin Hooper and OJ Howard combined.

Best Value: TE Michael Mayer

They basically drafted Jason Witten in round two of a very weak draft. That’s elite value.

Sleeper: CB Jakorian Bennett

The Raiders depth chart at CB is Nate Hobbs, Duke Shelley, David Long Jr, and Brandon Facyson, Bennett could be better than all those guys. He has inside/outside versatility and will probably play outside because he’s better at that than all those guys. He will end up starting games for the Raiders this year, that’s a low bar but that’s good for a rookie.

Overall Analysis

As I looked over this draft I thought, solid job, except where are the offensive linemen? Not a single one drafted, that’s malpractice. Tyree Wilson and Michael Mayer were a great start, it gets pretty rough after that. DT Byron Young fills a need but they reached for him instead of getting a better CB or an offensive lineman. Then they drafted Tre Turner, a solid slot receiver but this team has Davante Adams, who likes to play out of the slot, Jakobi Meyers, best out of the slot, Hunter Renfrow, can only play out of the slot, and they signed Deandre Carter in free agency, another slot. Should probably have taken an offensive lineman there.

Jakorian Bennett was a solid choice but you could have taken a CB earlier and gotten a better player. They got in on the QB run that was happening way too early and they took Aidan O’Connell, a 25-year-old statue out of Purdue. They must have wanted to make Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer feel like mobile QBs. Christopher Smith was a solid round five pick at safety, a position that needed some depth, and Smith is a playmaker. LB Amari Burney is probably a special team’s guy at best and Nesta Jade Silvera is fighting an uphill battle to make the roster.

Los Angeles Chargers

(21) Quentin Johnston WR TCU
(54) Tuli Tuipulotu Edge USC
(85) Daiyan Henley LB Washington St.
(125) Derius Davis WR TCU
(156) Jordan McFadden OL Clemson
(200) Scott Matlock DL Boise St
(239) Max Duggan QB TCU

Immediate Impact: WR Quentin Johnston

The Chargers are in pretty good shape overall but they need a deep threat WR. Johnston isn’t a classic deep, over-the-top type of player, but he is a weapon and he will take coverage away from Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He’s a yards-after-the-catch monster and that can be useful.

Best Value: Edge Tuli Tuipulotu

The Chargers have two elite edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack but when those guys come off the field, they struggle to get pressure on the QB. Tuipulotu was a highly productive pass rusher at USC and he has plenty of pass rushing moves and still room to get better. Getting a productive pass rusher late in round two is very valuable.

Sleeper: WR Derius Davis

It’s a little weird that the Chargers took two WRs from TCU (and their QB) but Davis brings a different dimension to their WR corps. He’s the fast, little guy while Allen, Williams, and Johnston are the big-bodied type. Keenan Allen is a big slot receiver, Davis can be the quick jitterbug type inside. He could be a gadget guy for sure and maybe even take some pressure off of Austin Ekeler catching short screens and dump offs. It’s nice to have options for Justin Herbert.

Overall Analysis

This was a pretty solid draft class and even with a good roster in front of them I can see some of these players making a difference. I have questions about Quentin Johnston but I’m interested to see what Kellen Moore draws up with him in the fold at WR. He’s also a nice hedge against Allen’s age and Williams’ injury history. Davis also helps the WR corps quite a bit. Tuipulotu also gives them depth at a position where age and injury have struck before and now, they can hope some rotational help keeps Bosa and Mack on the field.

LB Daiyan Henley gives them another dimension at LB too. He’s a smaller player who can run and cover and has speed. He’s what Kenneth Murray is supposed to be. OL Jordan McFadden gives them depth on the interior after losing Matt Feiler and DL Scott Matlock gives them some depth on the front line. Maybe he can stop the run, the rest of the d-line struggles with that. QB Max Duggan is an interesting player. He’s had his ups and downs in his college career but he went out with a bang, getting TCU to the National Championship (we’ll forget they got destroyed by Georgia). Duggan doesn’t have an NFL arm and while he’s pretty mobile, he doesn’t have great athleticism. That said, every time someone doubts him, he proves them wrong. He didn’t win the starting job at TCU last year to start the year, even after being the incumbent starter. Then his competition got hurt in game one and he led the team to the National Championship game and was the Heisman runner up. He can be a solid backup who could keep the offense running if Herbert gets hurt. If I were Easton Stick, I’d be looking over my shoulder.

2023 NFC North Draft Review

Chicago Bears

(10) Darnell Wright OT Tennessee
(53) Gervon Dexter DT Florida
(56) Tyrique Stevenson CB Miami
(64) Zacch Pickens DT South Carolina
(115) Roschon Johnson RB Texas
(133) Tyler Scott WR Cincinnati
(148) Noah Sewell LB Oregon
(165) Terell Smith CB Minnesota
(218) Travis Bell DT Kennesaw St
(258) Kendall Williamson S Stanford

Immediate Impact: RT Darnell Wright, DT Gervon Dexter

Darnell Wright walks in as the starting RT on day one. The RT position is fixed and Teven Jenkins and Larry Borom are going to have to find other spots to play or a different team. I’m not the biggest Dexter fan, he’s seriously inconsistent but the Bears DT depth chart is not good. His talent will allow him to get plenty of playing time, now if the coaches can just get him to actually play hard all the time, they will have something.

Best Value: WR Tyler Scott

Scott isn’t the biggest guy but he’s fast, he’s fluid, and he’s a really good athlete. If his hands were better and he was a little crisper in his routes he goes much higher. I think he can work on those things and the Bears got a guy who should have been a day two pick on day three. This guy is either the replacement for Darnell Mooney if he leaves next year in free agency, or he’s the reason the team doesn’t want Mooney back.

Sleeper: CB Terell Smith

I’m not a fan of the Tyrique Stevenson pick in the second round but I like this pick quite a bit. Stevenson is a flashy athlete; Smith is a good CB. Smith will give you steady play and be where he’s supposed to be on defense. He’s a good athlete who plays a bit stiff but he has years of experience and understands how to cover. Stevenson is either a homerun or a strikeout, Smith is a solid double down the line. If you made me bet who’s still on the roster in three years, I’ll take Smith.

Overall Analysis

The Bears wanted a RT and they got the best pure RT in the draft. I do question the wisdom of trading down one spot and giving up Jalen Carter, especially after they drafted three DTs, but I like Wright. I didn’t like the Dexter or Stevenson picks because there’s too much volatility in their outcomes. Dexter could be Jalen Carter, or he’s out of the league in three years. Stevenson can be a starter for the next decade, I’m just not sure if it’s in the NFL or XFL. DT Zacch Pickens is the opposite of Dexter, he’s as steady as they come but he’s not going to dominate. He is to Dexter what Smith is to Stevenson.
RB Rochon Johnson is a great complementary back and he’ll give them a lot of flexibility and he’ll help in so many ways. He could actually prove to be better than Herbert or Foreman by the end of the year. WR Tyler Scott is insurance against Darnell Mooney getting hurt or Chase Claypool sucking. Scott can play and he’ll make plays when he does. LB Noah Sewell is an interesting pick. He’s an old school big LB and he’ll be perfect backing up Tremaine Edmunds and he allows them the chance to use Edmunds in different ways if they want. The Smith pick was a hedge on Stevenson, just like Pickens was on Dexter. While normally I wouldn’t give much credence to a small school DT who’s undersized and got picked in round seven, I’ve seen the Bears DT depth chart, Travis Bell can make this roster. S Kendall Williamson will have to make this team on special teams.

Detroit Lions

(12) Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
(18) Jack Campbell LB Iowa
(34) Sam LaPorta TE Iowa
(45) Brian Branch S Alabama
(68) Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee
(96) Brodric Martin DL Western Kentucky
(152) Colby Sorsdal OL William & Mary
(219) Antoine Green WR North Carolina

Immediate Impact: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, LB Jack Campbell, TE Sam LaPorta, S Brian Branch

The 12th pick was too high for Gibbs but that doesn’t mean he won’t be an awesome player. They traded D’Andre Swift after getting Gibbs so now he’s the complement to David Montgomery, and he’ll be great at it. Apologies to one of the starting LBs from last year but you just got replaced. Jack Campbell will be the starting MLB in Detroit and either Alex Anzalone goes to the bench or he moves to one of the other spots and someone else goes to the bench. Either way, Campbell is the new MLB and he’ll be a star. LaPorta is the new TJ Hockenson, he starts and with Jameson Williams suspended to start the season, he’ll get plenty of targets. Brian Branch may not start right away, but he will play and he will be excellent.

Best Value: S Brian Branch

This guy is an absolute steal half way through round two. He’s the best slot cover guy in the draft, he can play safety either in coverage or coming up to tackle. He’s not the biggest guy and he didn’t have great athletic testing numbers, he’s just football player. If I were Tracy Walker, I would be worried about my cap number increasing so much next year, they just drafted his replacement.

Sleeper: WR Antoine Green

No one has heard of this guy because Josh Downs sucked up all the targets in North Carolina’s offense. Green is a bigger WR with straight line speed and great size. The reason I’m calling him the sleeper is Jameson Williams is suspended to start the season which leaves, Marvin Jones Jr and Josh Reynolds as the only WR not named Amon-Ra St. Brown. It is completely possible Greene looks good when he gets a chance and sticks around.

Overall Analysis

You can quibble with the order in which the Lions took the players they got because a RB and LB in round one doesn’t feel like great value, but you can’ t argue with the guys they got. Gibbs is a major playmaker for the offense. Jack Campbell is the best LB they have had since…Chris Spielman? He sets the tone for how they want to play. TE Sam LaPorta and S Brian Branch were actually guys who could have gone in round one so they overpaid in round one and got value in round two. Then they got QB Hendon Hooker in round three. Hooker had some first round buzz but that was just noise. He’s a solid developmental prospect and if he recovers from his knee injury and they like what they see next year, he gives them something to think about in 2024 when they could move on from Jared Goff but they don’t have to.

DT Brodric Martin is a solid bet on a gigantic human being who can give them some real heft on the interior defensive line. OL Colby Sorsdal is a small school prospect they can try to develop into a future piece, they don’t need him now. Antoine Greene is just betting on a guy with traits late in the draft, not a terrible idea.

Green Bay Packers

(13) Lukas Van Ness Edge Iowa
(42) Luke Musgrave TE Oregon St.
(50) Jayden Reed WR Michigan St.
(78) Tucker Kraft TE South Dakota St.
(116) Colby Wooden DL Auburn
(149) Sean Clifford QB Penn St.
(159) Dontayvion Wicks WR Virginia
(179) Karl Brooks DL Bowling Green
(207) Anders Carlson K Auburn
(232) Carrington Valentine CB Kentucky
(235) Lew Nichols III RB Central Michigan
(242) Anthony Johnson Jr. S Iowa St.
(256) Grant DuBose WR Charlotte

Immediate Impact: Edge Lukas Van Ness, TE Luke Musgrave, TE Tucker Kraft, WR Jayden Reed

The Packers’ defense was not very good last year and they didn’t draft Lukas Van Ness to sit around and watch. It’s going to be a transition for him to play on the edge in their 3-4 defense but he’s the type of athlete who can do it. They have big pass rushing OLBs right now with Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, they can make Van Ness into one.
The TE spot was devoid of any difference makers so they drafted Luke Musgrave and then they couldn’t pass up the value of Tucker Kraft when he slipped to round three. Those two become the top two TEs and Jordan Love is going to enjoy both, I see some two TE sets in Green Bay’s future. The Packers don’t usually draft smaller WRs but they made an exception for Jayden Reed. Reed will be the perfect complement in the slot to Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. They don’t have a real slot receiver right now so it’s his job to lose.

Best Value: TE Tucker Kraft

There were some who really liked Kraft as a prospect and he definitely had higher grades than 78th overall. It was a deep TE class so teams waited a bit and he was way too good to fall any farther and the Packers remade their TE depth chart with this draft on day two.

Sleeper: S Anthony Johnson Jr.

I hate to give credit to a Cyclone but this guy could end up really being a player for the Packers. Johnson played safety, nickel, and CB while at Iowa St (it feels like he was there for 12 years). His experience will help him find a role and the Packers need some safety help or Darnell Savage is going to feel lonely back there. At worst he’s a versatile backup, at best he could end up starting at safety opposite Savage.

Overall Analysis

Van Ness gives them another 1st rounder on defense, at some point they have to realize they have plenty of talent, they need a new coach there. Musgrave and Kraft have a chance to really help this team as a really good TE duo, they should complement each other well. Reed could be a huge addition; he can make Jordan Love’s life easier. This team made 13 picks, I like the first four, it gets a little off kilter after that.

They needed some depth on the defensive front and they got Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks. Neither one is a needle mover but they can be nice backups. QB Sean Clifford in round five was a head-scratcher. They could certainly use quarterback depth beyond Danny Etling but Clifford isn’t it. Jaren Hall, Tanner McKee, and Max Duggan were all still on the board, I would have rather had any of the three. Dontayvion Wicks and Grant DuBose were depth picks at WR, neither one feels like they will really help but I like DuBose more than Wicks. I’m not a big proponent of drafting a kicker but when you have 13 picks and it’s in the sixth round, I’m fine with it. They need a kicker to replace Mason Crosby and Anders Carlson has a better chance of making an impact than another late round position player. CB Carrington Valentine, RB Lew Nichols III, and Anthony Johnson Jr. will join to two WRs trying to make this team as special teamers and backups with the hope to find a spot in the future.

Minnesota Vikings

(23) Jordan Addison WR USC
(102) Mekhi Blackmon CB USC
(134) Jay Ward CB LSU
(141) Jaquelin Roy DL LSU
(164) Jaren Hall QB BYU
(222) DeWayne McBride RB UAB

Immediate Impact: WR Jordan Addison

The Vikings didn’t have a lot of draft capital and they filled a major hole on offense with their first pick. Jordan Addison steps into the spot vacated by Adam Thielen and he’s a great complement to Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is a true #1 WR and Addison can be a fantastic #2. He’s fast, he’s a great route runner, and he’s a reliable target, Kevin O’Connell will find ways to get him the ball.

Best Value: QB Jaren Hall

Hall might be a bit underrated because he’s an older prospect who lacks ideal size. He has plenty of arm strength and mobility which make up for his lack of height and he has a chance to develop into a starter down the road. For a team that might be looking to move on from Kirk Cousins in a year and only has Nick Mullens as a backup, Hall in round five was well worth the pick.

Sleeper: CB Mekhi Blackmon

The Vikings have Andrew Booth Jr and Byron Murphy at CB, Booth is coming off an injury riddled rookie year and Murphy is better in the slot. They need a lot of help at CB and Blackmon wasn’t one of the big-name CBs but he played a lot at USC. He’s not a big guy and he’s not a great athlete but he doesn’t care and he competes on every rep. On a team in need of an outside CB, I’m not betting against Blackmon. They may end up with a starting CB from round three.

Overall Analysis

For a team that had a lot of holes on defense, they didn’t have a lot of draft capital to use and they used their first pick on offense. Addison will keep the offense humming right along but with only six picks I question the wisdom of using three on offense and three on defense. CB Jay Ward is also tough to figure out, he’s basically a CB/S tweener who isn’t that good at any one thing in particular. He might be a solid slot corner but they should be playing Murphy there. DT Jaquelin Roy is a big boy at DT and adds some beef but I’m not sure he breaks through enough to actually play. Hall is a nice shot at a backup QB and maybe a starter in a couple of years but he’s not helping right now. DeWayne McBride looks the part of an NFL running back but unless they trade Dalvin Cook it’s going to be hard to find playing time behind Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Kene Nwangwu. He has to beat out Ty Chandler to just make the 53-man roster. I would have gone all defense after drafting Addison, or drafted a defender in round one and taken a different WR in round two.

2023 Iowa Football Spring Thoughts

2023 Iowa Hawkeyes Spring Review

I have been avoiding writing about the 2023 Iowa Hawkeyes because I still have some trauma to work through after watching last year’s offense redefine the word putrid.  I started to get a little hope when the transfer portal opened last December and the Hawkeyes landed several impact players, not the least of which was Cade McNamara, the former Michigan QB.  Then the bowl game came and went and my hopes felt dashed when there were no staff changes (okay it was really just Brian Ferentz I wanted gone with a new offensive coordinator from anywhere but here). 

Brian Ferentz remains the offensive coordinator and I have little faith he can make any meaningful changes.  It’s still Kirk Ferentz’s offense but Brian is the play caller and he proved last year, he has almost no imagination.  With a month to prepare for the bowl game it seems he came up with four new plays, ran them to start the game against Kentucky, and then when they all worked, he never used them again.  All of this led to the embarrassment that is Brian’s new contract he struck with Gary Barta.  Standards set so low for the offense it’s ridiculous that they wasted the paper to write them down.  Barta showed he has no power over Brian Ferentz even though Brian “reports” to Barta to circumvent the University’s nepotism rules.  The only thing more embarrassing than Brian’s new contract was last year’s offense.

The hope was that the new transfers would help Iowa overcome its antiquated offense and that Cade McNamara’s influence might open things up a bit.  That hope took a serious hit when spring practice opened and a bunch of injuries stalled any possible progress from being made. Cade McNamara was only able to partially participate (we knew this was going to happen before spring started). New WR Seth Anderson missed all of camp with a soft tissue injury, new RT hopeful Daijon Parker was injured almost immediately and missed all of spring along with a slew of injuries that took out most of the starting offensive line for some or all of spring.  The offensive line was terrible last year and needed the practice.  It was tough to see any progress being made when only one scholarship WR was healthy for spring practice too. 

It was clear from very early on that Iowa needed more depth and more talent at the WR position and it needed to come from the transfer portal.  The portal hadn’t been as fruitful when it came to WR as many had hoped with only Anderson joining during the initial portal window.  It’s hard to blame the higher ranked WRs for wanting to play in a better offense.  Then a funny thing happened just as the spring transfer portal window was closing, Kaleb Brown from Ohio St. entered.  The realist in me never thought for a second that Brown would seriously consider Iowa, then he scheduled a visit, and it came very quickly.  Even more improbably, he quickly cancelled his other planned visits and committed to Iowa after being hosted by Cade McNamara and connecting with Xavier Nwankpa and getting a deal with the Iowa Swarm collective.  Hope comes once again. 

This is the experience of being a Hawkeye fan in 2023.  The ebbs and flows, the ups and downs, the twists and turns, it’s like being on the world’s worst roller coaster…I hate roller coasters.  Watch a video of Cade McNamara simply speaking about playing at Iowa and you’re in on the Hawkeyes competing for the Big Ten Championship.  Remember that Iowa’s offensive line was terrible and the two new comers are Daijon Parker, a guy who missed spring practice with an injury and Rusty Feth, a guard who hasn’t stepped on campus yet.  Then look at TEs Luke Lachey and Eric All and you see visions of TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant destroying defenses before going on to the NFL.  Then you realize Brian Ferentz is still the play caller.  You hear whispers that Jon Budmayr is working hands on with the QBs and his finger prints might be all over this offense due to his connection with Cade McNamara.  Then you realize his only play calling experience was with a bad Colorado St. team a couple of years ago (it wasn’t his fault; his head coach was awful). The roller coaster is nearly out of control.  

While the offensive line didn’t have time to work together during the spring, the injuries did afford some extra practice time for some young guys and there appears to be progress.  Beau Stephens and Gennings Dunker seemed to be holding their own against Iowa’s defense by the end of spring practice and that’s a good development.  If those two can be better the offensive line has a chance to be better and deeper.  Logan Jones was the only constant on the line during the spring and hopefully he’s making progress too. 

There’s potential for Iowa to opens next season with six new transfer starters on offense; QB Cade McNamara, WRs Kaleb Brown and Seth Anderson, TE Erick All (Iowa will almost assuredly use a two-TE set), RT Daijon Parker and RG Rusty Feth.  What does this all mean? It means there are no more talent excuses for Brian and Kirk.  They can’t blame any poor offensive showings on the talent on the team.  They never explicitly said it last year but Brian implied it when he talked about how he did the best he could with what he had.  Should I avoid pointing out that a lack of talent on the team falls on the coaches who recruit the players?  This offense has the pieces it needs to be good.  I said it before, Iowa’s elite defense just needs a functional offense.  Imagine what Iowa could have accomplished the last two years if the offense hadn’t been a complete trainwreck.  Last year’s defense was an elite unit, the good news is this year’s defense could be just as good.  Let’s take a closer look at the team.

Quarterback

Starter: Cade McNamara (Sr)

Backup: Deacon Hill (Soph)

The fact that these two are at the top of the depth chart is an indication that Jon Budmayr’s influence will be felt on the offense.  Both of these QBs are transfers who came to Iowa largely due to their connection to Budmayr and are already ahead of Joe Labas, the bowl game starter.  McNamara was a given, he didn’t transfer to Iowa to sit on the bench or even to compete, he’s here to start.  Hill is a different story.  The fact that he has already moved ahead of Labas (Kirk confirmed this at his post spring practice press conference) means that the Iowa offense that has always been so difficult for QBs to understand, is changing in some ways. 

The understanding has always been that Iowa’s offense is so hard to understand it takes years for QBs to get it (the joke being that it only takes opposing defensive coordinators a week to understand it).  Well Cade McNamara hasn’t even needed to fully practice to have won the starting job and Deacon Hill knows it well enough that he passed Labas as the backup.  Clearly, there are some changes to make the offense simpler and less cumbersome, that would be a welcome change. 

Running Back

Starter: Kaleb Johnson (Soph)

Backups: Leshon Williams (Jr), Jaziun Patterson (RS Fr)

Not much to report on here.  Kaleb Johnson took over the job last season and if the offensive line can open some holes, he’s going to be a star.  Iowa is always going to run the ball; they just need to be more effective.  Johnson has superstar potential, it’s just harder to see when there’s 11 defenders within seven yards of the line of scrimmage.  Williams is a more than capable backup but I like him in the backup role more than I did as a starter.  Patterson showed some flashes in limited action last year and I really like his potential as a complement to Johnson.  Iowa’s running game will undergo a pretty significant change as it looks like the fullback position will, at the very least, change into more of an H-back type.  Iowa doesn’t have a traditional fullback so we will likely see some others positions used.  More two-TE sets with one maybe lining up in the backfield when needed.   

Wide Receiver

Starters: Kaleb Brown (RS Fr), Nico Ragaini (Sr), Seth Anderson (Soph)

Backups: Diante Vines (Jr), Jacob Bostick (RS Fr), The true freshmen

This isn’t what the depth chart looks like coming out of spring and I’m sure it’s not what Kirk or Brian would tell you it is.  They will give Vines and Ragaini the respect of being guys who have been here, however, if Iowa’s offense wants to be good, Brown and Anderson are the keys.  Ragaini is going to be a perfectly fine slot receiver but he would be far more useful if Brown and Anderson can be threats outside. Vines might finally develop now that he has a good QB throwing to him but the team needs difference makers and those are Brown and Anderson. 

Kaleb Brown is a thought piece right now, he’s a projection, so is Anderson to a certain extent.  The issue is talent and skill set.  Brown has the speed and skill that made him a 4-star prospect that Ohio St. signed last year and he had offers from Alabama, Notre Dame, and so many other top programs.  That type of skill is non-existent in Iowa’s WR corps.  No one Iowa has threatens the defense down the field like Brown can.  He isn’t the tallest WR being only 5’10 but he has legit deep speed.  He is also a solidly built 198 lbs. so he looks pretty stout for a guy who was a freshman last season.  Brown’s speed changes the math on defense, teams have to respect the deep part of the field.  It opens things up underneath for the TEs and backs the safeties off to make the box lighter for the running game.    

Anderson wasn’t a highly recruited guy out of high school but he was a productive player at Charleston Southern.  He had 42 catches which doesn’t sound like a lot but other than Nico Ragaini Iowa doesn’t have a guy with any real college football playing experience at WR.  Diante Vines has 10 career receptions, that’s not all on him but it’s hard to say he should automatically be considered a starter.  I think Vines can be a useful WR but Anderson has shone more proof that he’s a functional WR.  Either way, Iowa’s WR group is in much better shape with Anderson and Brown towards the top.  It allows Vines, Bostick, and the three true freshmen to find their footing, not be pressed into roles too big for them.  A staring group of Brown, the deep threat, Anderson, the complementary outside guy, and Ragaini in the slot, looks a lot better than last year’s disaster.  Now, they all just have to stay healthy. 

Tight End

Starters: Luke Lachey (Jr), Erick All (Sr)

Backups: Addison Ostrenga (Soph), Steven Stilianos (Sr)

The Erick All transfer keeps the Iowa TE group towards the top of the position in college football.  Luke Lachey is ready to break out and All looks to be healthy after missing most of last year.  Both guys can be difference makers and that would be a lot easier if the WR group can help them out by taking some of the coverage away.  Lachey and All can be matchup nightmares with their size and athleticism and they can make plays, move the chains, and if all goes well, they will be nearly impossible to stop in the red zone. 

The backups aren’t too shabby either.  Ostrenga is a young guy who is still filling out physically but you can see the makings of a very good player.  Stilianos was a small school transfer last year who hopefully has adjusted to big time college football and can provide depth. 

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Mason Richman (Jr), LG Connor Colby (Jr), C Logan Jones (Jr), RG Rusty Feth (Sr), RT Daijon Parker (Sr)O

Backups: OT Jack Dotzler (RS Fr), G/T Nick DeJong (Sr), G/T Gennings Dunker (Soph), OG Beau Stephens (Soph), OG Tyler Elsbury (Jr), C Mike Myslinski (Soph)

This is where things get very interesting.  Again, I’m making an assumption on the offensive line the same way I made one at WR.  Rusty Feth and Daijon Parker didn’t transfer to Iowa to sit on the bench.  Parker was out during spring after having surgery and that meant that Nick DeJong got a chance to play RT and so did Gennings Dunker.  Kirk Ferentz is always complementary towards a former walk-on senior like DeJong but I’ve watched him for too many years and he needs to be a backup.  Dunker is an ascending player who has versatility but the reason Iowa recruited Parker in the portal was to buy time for guys like Dunker and Dotzler at OT because they are young and aren’t ready just yet.  They are the type of developmental guys that could really ascend but hopefully it isn’t necessary until 2024. 

Mason Richman is locked in at LT and he played much better in second half of last season after Connor Colby moved to LG next to him.  Colby was miscast as a RT out of necessity to start last year and was finally benched during the Ohio St. game.  The good news was after being pulled at RT they eventually put him at LG and left side of the line stabilized.  Richman was better because he had Colby playing at a position he’s really good at.  Colby is a guard not a tackle, and he’s a really good guard.  Both guys missed time in spring with injuries but they should be locked in on that side. 

Logan Jones struggled a lot at center last year.  It was everything from the line calls to simply snapping the ball.  When your offense can’t pull off the most basic thing, the QB/center exchange, you’re working from a deficit.  The good news is you could see Jones get better at the shotgun snap from the beginning of the season to the end, it makes me think he can get better at all of it.  Hopefully with a year of playing time and potentially an offense that won’t ask as much of him, he can concentrate on just playing football.  Jones is a physical freak and if they can harness that, he’ll be fine. 

Like I said, Feth and Parker didn’t come here to sit and once Feth arrives this summer and Parker is healed up, I expect those two to form the right side of the line.  Both are seniors with one year of eligibility to use, they were brought in to give the young guys time to develop and that’s what they will do.  Feth has the flexibility to play center if Jones stumbles but more importantly, he should be a stabilizer next to him to make him more comfortable with the calls.  With talented guards like Colby and Feth flanking him Jones should feel more comfortable with everything.  Parker has flexibility to move inside to guard or over to LT if injuries strike and that gives the Hawkeyes more depth, that was something they were sorely lacking last year.  But if all goes well, Parker takes the RT job and excels at it, and he and Feth have a great year.   

The young guys like Jack Dotzler, Gennings Dunker, and Beau Stephens are guys who just need time to develop physically and mentally, once they do, the talent is there.  Nick DeJong is a break-in-case-of-emergency offensive lineman.  He should only play if injury necessitates it.  Mike Myslinski has to find a way to stay healthy if he ever wants to play football.  He never had the opportunity to compete with Jones for the center job because he just can’t stay on the field. 

The Defense

Phil Parker is the best defensive coordinator in college football and that’s just a fact.  His defense isn’t stacked with four- and five-star recruits like Georgia or Alabama and yet they are a dominant force.  Iowa lost two first-round NFL draft picks (Lukas Van Ness and Jack Campbell), and a long-time starting CB who was a third-rounder (Riley Moss), and I’m not sure they miss a beat.  Let’s have a look.

Defensive Line

Starters: DE Deontae Craig (Jr), DE Joe Evans (Sr), DT Logan Lee (Sr), DT Noah Shannon

Backups: DE Max Llewellyn (Soph), DE Ethan Hurkett (Jr), DT Yahya Black (Jr), DT Aaron Graves (Soph)

Depth: DT Anterio Thompson (Soph), DT Jeremiah Pittman (Soph), DE Chris Reames (Sr), DE Brian Allen (RS Fr)

This unit is frightening if you’re an opponent because they are potentially three deep at all positions, they could realistically play 12 or 13 players on the defensive line.  The second unit is arguably more talented at DT than the starters it’s just the starters are seniors and they are excellent too.  The team lost Lukas Van Ness at DE a year early to the NFL, he didn’t start a game at Iowa and this type of depth is why.  Now that Van Ness isn’t here to be the breakout star of the defensive line, I’m nominating Deontae Craig.  He tied for the team lead in sacks last year and he was nowhere near the lead in snaps played.  He’ll play more as a starter and he’s only getting better.  Joe Evans and Noah Shannon are returning for their sixth years using their Covid year to do so.  Evans isn’t the biggest guy but he’s a proven DE starter and he’s very steady.  Shannon is the undersized DT but with the depth inside they can put him situations where he can excel.  Logan Lee isn’t big either but he’s a rock inside.  

The good news for Shannon and Lee is that they don’t have to be the big guys inside because Yahya Black and Aaron Graves are power players on the inside.  The rotation of those four keeps them all fresh and Iowa added to that rotation.  Junior college transfer Anterio Thompson should find some playing time and Jeremiah Pittman took the opportunity this spring to stand out.  Lee and Shannon were out after surgeries for spring practice and Pittman showed he can handle playing.  That’s six DTs to play and that doesn’t include a guy like Jeff Bowie, a redshirt sophomore we haven’t seen do anything yet. 

At DE, Craig is the breakout star while Evans is the steady senior.  Behind them Ethan Hurkett and Max Llewellyn are looking to stay healthy and prove they are ready to be big contributors.  There’s also a chance Aaron Graves gets some time at DE just to get him on the field, he will be one giant DE.  Chris Reames is a senior who’s never really played but was mentioned by the coaches as a guy who looked good this spring, always have to cheer for a guy who has stuck it out this long without getting meaningful playing time.  Brian Allen was a highly touted prospect who redshirted last year, he should be itching to prove he deserves some snaps. 

This defensive line should scare the hell out of the Big Ten, the Next Man Up mantra might mean an even better player is stepping in for the guy going out.  This line should make the linebackers’ lives much easier too. 

Linebackers

Starters: Nick Jackson (Sr), Jay Higgins (Sr), Karson Sharar (Soph), CASH Sebastian Castro (Sr)

Backups: Kyler Fisher (Sr), Jaden Harrell (Soph), Zach Twedt (Soph)

Someone has to replace Jack Campbell and Seth Benson and that unenviable task falls to Nick Jackson and Jay Higgins.  Iowa will spend a lot of time playing only two LBs with Castro at the Cash position and it will mostly be Jackson and Higgins.  Jackson is a transfer who will step in immediately as the playmaker.  He was a tackling machine at Virginia and was an All-ACC player multiple years.  Higgins got playing time last year when Jestin Jacobs got hurt.  He didn’t play all the time because Jacobs was the third LB but it was valuable experience. 

Sharar is going to get that third LB role this year, he’ll play when the team goes away from the Cash lineup.  Castro stepped into the Cash position last year when Cooper DeJean had to move to CB after the injuries to Terry Roberts and Jermari Harris.  He played quite well there and got better as the season progressed.  With DeJean taking over as the top CB the Cash job is Castro’s. 

The backups really come down to Kyler Fisher, a senior with tons of special teams work and some LB snaps.  He’s the only guy who has actual playing time on defense.  As Iowa has used more two LB lineups it’s harder to get young guys on the field.  Harrell and Twedt are the next men up but there are some good young LBs on the team. 

Defensive Backs

Starters: CB Cooper DeJean (Jr), CB Jermari Harris (Sr), SS Xavier Nwankpa (Soph), FS Quinn Schulte (Sr)

Backups: CB TJ Hall (Soph), CB Deshaun Lee (RS Fr), SS Koen Entringer (RS Fr), FS Kael Kolarik (RS Fr)

It’s Cooper DeJean’s world and we’re all just living in it.  DeJean was the breakout player of last year and he’s only going to get better from here.  He’s one of the most versatile players in football, he plays CB, he can be the Cash, he could be an excellent safety, and he’s a devastating punt returner.  If Iowa hadn’t landed Kaleb Brown at WR I would have been begging for him to get some time on offense, instead I’ll just ask politely to give him a few plays a game on that side.  Jermari Harris missed last season with an injury which played a part in DeJean becoming a CB full-time, we can thank Harris for that later.  He had ended the 2021 season playing quite well and I expect him to be pretty good this year.  It’s never easy replacing a long-time starter like Riley Moss and DeJean and Harris will be a good CB pairing.   

Xavier Nwankpa is the outlier for the Hawkeyes, he actually was a five-star recruit and he looks like the real deal.  He didn’t start last year until the bowl game when he stepped in for Kaevon Merriweather but he didn’t miss a beat.  Nwankpa is a superstar in the making, especially being a safety under the tutelage of Phil Parker.  That much talent with Parker’s coaching, look out.  Quinn Schulte is another one of Parker’s creations.  He took a walk-on safety and turned him into a multi-year starter and team leader, I’ve heard that story before and it’s always great.  This defensive backfield will be excellent in the starting unit. 

The backups have talent but lack experience.  TJ Hall struggled last year when pressed in to duty against Nebraska as a true freshman, getting benched in that game.  He has talent, he needs time.  Deshaun Lee redshirted last year and he needs time too.  There’s a reason Iowa is looking for an experienced CB in the transfer portal.  Koen Entringer was a coaches’ favorite by the end of last season and he’s really the third safety.  Kael Kolarik is probably Phil Parker’s next great safety find.  I’m not going to doubt it.   

Final Thoughts

The Iowa defense will do what the Iowa defense does, it will dominate.  If the transfers on the offensive side of the ball can raise the play on that side, the team can be good.  If there are some changes to the offensive scheme to better utilize the new talent on offense, the team could be really good.  If they would have found a new offensive coordinator to bring Iowa’s offense into this decade, Iowa could be great.  We’ll have to settle for small steps.  The Big Ten West is going through some big changes with new coaches at Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Purdue.  Illinois has some major changes at QB, RB, and especially the secondary to deal with.  Minnesota is still coached by PJ Fleck so they will still struggle to win big games.  Northwestern was a tire fire last year and Fitz has his work cut out for him.  The last Big Ten West crown is there for Iowa’s taking.  The defense is good enough to win it, the offense just has to be good enough to not lose it.  25 points a game is Brian Ferentz’s benchmark to getting his contract renewed.  If he doesn’t get there, he should be fired, and his father should show enough respect to the program to do it himself.  I’m going to remain cautious in my optimism until I see how the offense comes together during training camp with the line getting healthy, Cade getting healthy, and the WR corps coming into form.  Also, where do I go to start the Phil Parker for the Broyles Award (college football’s Assistant of the Year award) campaign?  He’s long overdue. 

2023 NFL Draft-Day Two Hott Reads

I have some thoughts to share about Day Two (aka rounds 2 &3) of the NFL draft. This is generally the day I like the best because you really see what teams are doing to improve their roster. This is where teams can really move the needle for their upcoming season. Round one gets all the hype but it’s tough for one player to really change the fortunes of a team, so here is where they get guys who can contribute early and really affect some change.

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers are killing it so far. Somehow they got their new starting LT in round one and then came back in round two and got the CB they needed and wanted. Joey Porter Jr was popular 1st round guy for them and they get him at the top of round two. He starts day one opposite Patrick Peterson and the son of a Steelers great gets to try to become a Steelers great himself. Then they added Keeanu Benton, a big nose tackle from Wisconsin who fills a huge need and then somehow TE Darnell Washington inexplicably falls to round three and the Steelers continue to kill it in this draft. The AFC North is no joke.
  • Tennessee stops Will Levis’ slide with the second pick in round two. They trade up and get the QB I thought they would trade up and get in round one. He could allow them to kick Ryan Tannehill to the curb but if his foot is the problem people are talking about, they can keep Tannehill around to let Levis work in slowly. BTW if you have a pack of gum you can trade for Malik Willis, clearly the Titans are over their third-round pick from last year. And now when Tannehill gets hurt they won’t have to start a street free agent they picked up an hour before the game.
  • Nate Tice from the Athletic made the joke that Sam LaPorta was everyone’s second favorite TE, everyone had a different favorite TE in this class but everyone loved LaPorta as their second guy. Apparently he was right. LaPorta was the second TE off the board, ahead of Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft and Darnell Washington, to name a few. He goes to Detroit who clearly watched a lot of Iowa film this year and loved some Hawkeyes.
  • Michael Mayer being the third TE off the board was surprise. The Raiders taking a TE was maybe a bit surprising after signing Austin Hooper and OJ Howard in the off season and having far bigger needs. Michael Mayer starting in week one and being way better than Hooper and Howard, won’t be surprising at all, he’s really good and Jimmy G is going to love him.
  • The Rams first pick was G/C Steve Avila. Matthew Stafford says thank you. That o-line was mess last year.
  • I was a little surprised Carolina took Jonathan Mingo with some of the WRs that were still left on the board, however, Mingo is a 6’2 power slot, that means he’s a big WR who plays inside. With DJ Chark and Adam Theilen outside they need a slot and a 6’2 guy will be easier for Bryce Young to see.
  • I got two picks in the second round of my mock draft exactly correct, that never happens. At 42 the Packers took TE Luke Musgrave and at 43 the Jets took C Joe Tippmann, I can’t believe that actually happened. Two guys who fill huge needs for those two teams.
  • Speaking of Luke Musgrave, he wasn’t the only pass catcher the Packers took on day two. They also took WR Jayden Reed from Michigan St and TE Tucker Kraft from South Dakota St. Reed will complement Watson and Doubs and Kraft was incredible value in round three. Their TE depth chart was pretty ugly, now it’s really good. They gave Jordan Love some real help at the skill positions.
  • The Colts took CB Julius Brents from Kansas St. I’m cheering for him, he’s a former Hawkeye who transferred and actually was good somewhere else (that’s rare, usually the guys who transfer out of Iowa don’t do much). Anyway, GM Chris Ballard likes big people and he just got a 6’3 CB who will start for them day one.
  • The Lions have a type. They don’t care about measurable or position value, they want high character, tough football players. They took Brian Branch, a guy who is way better than his measurables. He isn’t big, he isn’t fast, but he’s a stud. He’s the only guy who was invited to round one of the draft, didn’t get drafted night one, and came back on night two so he could walk on stage and have his draft moment. He wasn’t embarrassed, he wasn’t mad, he was genuinely appreciative of the moment. He joins a strangely crowded secondary in Detroit but I’m cheering for this kid. It’s weird, I’m going to have to actually like the Lions this year.
  • For the first time in a long time I’m actually loving the Patriots draft. The Christian Gonzalez pick in round one was truly awesome. Then in round two DE Keion White from Georgia Tech fell to the Patriots. I wasn’t a fan of White as a first round guy but as a second round pick, he’s a steal. He can play the edge, kick inside if needed, and gives the Pats the the youth and versatility up front they need. Then in round three they took a flyer on a guy coming off an injury, LB/S Marte Mapu. They announced him as a LB and I hope they play him there. He’s undersized but he’s fast and can cover, the Patriots need faster LBs who can cover, I’m glad to see Belichick realize that.
  • Everyone came into the draft thinking the Commanders needed help in the secondary, they drafted CB Emmanuel Forbes in round one and S Jartavius “Quan” Martin in round two, clearly they agreed. C Ricky Stromberg in round three is a good pickup too, they need help at interior o-line.
  • Cody Mauch should start at RG immediately in Tampa Bay. Mauch and Ryan Jenson starting next to each other would be awesome, they have to be long-lost brothers.
  • Dolphins took CB Cam Smith, is Xavien Howard headed for the exit? Vic Fangio and Jalen Ramsey need to teach Cam Smith how to cover without holding and Ramsey should convince him that tackling is fun, then Smith will be an excellent player. And of course Miami got Devon Achane. The dude with Olympic-level speed goes to the team with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert.
  • The Seahawks took a big RB, Zach Charbonnet, I can’t believe I didn’t have that in my mock draft. That’s like a four inch putt and I missed it.
  • The Bears drafted three defenders on day two. In round two they took a big swing on DT Gervon Dexter, then grabbed CB Tyrique Stevenson. In round three they went back to DT and took Zacch Pickens. Dexter is big dude and has flash plays that make you think he’s Jalen Carter, then he disappears for half the game. He needs to give consistent effort or he’ll be playing in the XFL in three years. Pickens is the guy who does give consistent effort, he just lacks Dexter’s physical gifts. The Bears needed bodies inside, they took one guy they can count on and one guy they hope is a superstar. I’m not a Stevenson fan and I’m really not a Stevenson in round two fan. He has lapses in coverage and misses too many tackles. There are CBs still on the board I like better than him. He has great physical tools but he doesn’t use them to do the things you need him to do. Not a fan of round two for the Bears.
  • I’ll generally give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt but Rashee Rice at WR in round two? I like a lot of guys who went after him a lot more. Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, and some guys still on the board. He’ll be fine with Mahomes throwing to him but give me Tillman or Hyatt, that would be fun. Also, a little surprised on Wayna Morris being their OT pick in round three. Dawand Jones and Jaelyn Duncan both available and Morris is injured. Not sure he’s helping anytime soon.
  • The Giants took C John Michael Schmitz in round two. I had him going there in round one, I missed it by a round but he’s starting at center immediately. Really good pick. They also took Jalin Hyatt in round three. He gives them the deep threat they have wanted to complement all of their underneath guys. Hyatt is basically the upgraded version of Darius Slayton, a guy they have wanted to be better than he is.
  • The Cowboys took a TE, not the one anyone thought but Luke Schoonmaker is basically Dalton Schultz 2.0.
  • Houston picked 2nd and 3rd and then had to wait until pick 62. They got a new starting center, Juice Scruggs, I did not make up that name. He’s a perfect fit for their new offense and he starts day one. Then they drafted WR Tank Dell at 69. “Tank” is a funny nickname for a guy 5’8 165 lbs. He’s really small but he’s fast and he can make plays. CJ Stroud will love these guys.
  • Sean Payton traded up into the end of round two to take WR Marvin Mims. Hey Patriots, call Sean and see what he wants for Jerry Jeudy, it can’t be that much, he just replaced him. Then Payton got a steal in round three with LB Drew Sanders. At one point Sanders looked like a top 15 pick, he went 67th overall. He’s a good player but they really have to take advantage of his pass rush ability to make the most of him. They finish off their day two with Iowa CB Riley Moss, what a great situation to walk into. Patrick Surtain II is one of the best CBs in the NFL already but the Broncos don’t have much on the outside opposite him. Damarri Mathis was a fourth round pick last year (not a Sean Payton pick). Moss is going to have a shot to play and maybe start in Denver, it’s trial by fire if you start opposite Surtain, no one throws his way. Moss won’t back down from the challenge.
  • At 68 the Lions moved up to take Hendon Hooker. This is where Hooker needed to go, not just to Detroit but in the third round. He’s 25, coming off an ACL tear and he will need time to adjust to an NFL offense. Jared Goff has this job locked down this year. Hooker doesn’t have to rush back from his knee injury, he can get great coaching from Ben Johnson to understand an NFL offense and then they can see where he is. Also, it’s not like they can’t pivot from him if they don’t think he’s the guy, it’s a third round pick, the Titans just did it with Malik Willis after a year.
  • The Browns took WR Cedric Tillman in round three. This is a steal and if Deshaun Watson can get his career back on track, he has the weapons around him. Tillman is a true X WR and that means Amari Cooper can play the Z where he can move all over the place like he should. It also means Donovan Peoples-Jones can move down the depth chart because Tillman is a legit downfield threat, not a pretend one. If Elijah Moore becomes the slot receiver he should be, wow is this WR so much better. Peoples-Jones and David Bell as the 4th and 5th guys? Really good.
  • The Colts got WR Josh Downs, the perfect inside complement to Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce outside. Sorry Isaiah McKenzie, you may have been replaced before you even get started in Indy.
  • San Francisco with a confounding draft. Penn St. DB Ji’Ayir Brown was a solid choice for team that lost Jimmy Ward and Emmanuel Moseley in the secondary, he adds nice depth and playmaking, then it goes off the rails. K Jake Moody might be the best kicker in the draft but with pick 99? Really? Then they took Alabama TE Cameron Latu, there were better TEs on the board. Strange draft for them.
  • The Jaguars second day was a little off. TE Brenton Strange wasn’t my favorite TE on the board when they took him but I can see the fit with Evan Engram a little. RB Tank Bigsby in round three, yikes, I’m not a fan. There are plenty of RBs I like better and I would have actually taken someone who could make more of a difference for you. The Jaguars can compete in the AFC with a little help, OT Anton Harrison in round one was a good choice. but they could have had some more help with better players on day two. They could have had a big WR like Cedric Tillman in round two or taken a CB like Riley Moss or Kelee Ringo in round three. RB could wait.
  • There are some guys I’m truly surprised made it to day three. Northwestern DL Adetomiwu Adebawore isn’t my favorite guy but he’s really athletic and productive, someone is getting a good player on day three. Kelee Ringo needs discipline on the field but he’s a freaky athlete who could be a top CB or move to safety, I would gladly take that risk early on day three. OT Blake Freeland, OT Jaelyn Duncan, OG Nick Saldiveri are big guys who need some time but I would be glad to have them as third day developmental offensive linemen. RT Dawand Jones isn’t even a guy you have to develop all that much, he may not have any positional flexibility but he can start at RT right away. S Antonio Johnson, CB Clark Phillips III, and CB Darius Rush are all guys who have starting potential early in their NFL careers. Phillips is a slot corner only but he’ll be great at it.
  • I have my fingers crossed for S Kaevon Merriweather from Iowa, I think he gets drafted late but he’s going to make a team as backup safety and special teams guy and eventually he’ll start for someone. Iowa defensive coordinator/defensive backs coach Phil Parker is the best in the business and his guys are smart and well coached. Merriweather is just the latest in a long line of solid defensive backs from Iowa who stick around the NFL for quite a long time.

2023 NFL Draft-Live Reaction

I’ll be reacting to the NFL draft live, right here as it happens. Here we go!

Congrats to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens for finally figuring out what we all knew they were going to do. And to Aaron Rodgers, remember, you’re with the Jets now, feel free to be terrible.

Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young QB Alabama

I’m not sold on Bryce Young as a long-term starter, his size is going to be an issue eventually. I think of RGIII and how his career started really well and then he got beat up and it ended quickly as a starter. Good luck Bryce, at least Carolina has a nice offensive line for him.

Houston Texans – CJ Stroud QB Ohio St

Well, there goes all that overthinking. Stroud is good, Stroud is a huge upgrade, sorry Davis Mills. Time to finally move that franchise forward.

So I missed on the teams switching spots but I got the first two picks right. Now here comes Arizona, at least it’s not Steve Keim screwing up this pick for them.

Houston – Will Anderson Jr. Edge Alabama

Wow Houston. Well done. Using the extra draft capital from the Watson trade and getting two of the top three picks. Anderson is a stud. DeMeco Ryans is going to love coaching Will Anderson. Their defense needed this guy. He sets the tone.

Smart move by the Cardinals. They just gave themselves more capital and an extra 1st round pick next year so they can go after a QB to replace Kyler Murray after this season. Their new GM Monti Ossenfort is already doing better than Keim ever did.

Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson QB Florida

I really don’t think Richardson is good enough right now to be the 4th pick but the Colts are taking a shot. He’s a physical freak and Shane Steichen can mold him. He can create an offense for him that will work right now.

I’m 4 for 4 in my mock on the players but I’m only 1 for 4 on the teams. I’ll take it. Here’s where things go off the rails.

Seattle Seahawks – Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois

Yep. John and Pete hate me and went with Witherspoon. They generally don’t draft CBs this early but they have to love his attitude and temperament. He can play and he’ll be deadly opposite Tariq Woolen and lets Coby Bryant play in the slot.

Arizona Cardinals – Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio St

Making a trade back up, bold. Taking Paris Johnson, not so bold, but smart. Their offensive line is not great and their OTs are both over 30. He can block for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye after next year.

Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech

This is the first of the replacements for all the Gruden/Mayock draft misses. Wilson replaces Clelin Ferrell. He could start if they cut or trade Chandler Jones. Wilson is huge and would look good opposite Maxx Crosby. Solid choice. I would have taken Gonzalez or an offensive lineman but Wilson is solid value.

Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson RB Texas

Holy crap. A top 10 RB. Robinson was the second best player in the draft for me (Jalen Carter was my #1). Robinson seriously upgrades the position for the Falcons, now Arthur Smith has to unlock Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Robinson. Big move for the Falcons.

Philadelphia Eagles – Jalen Carter DT Georgia

Trade up. Eagles wanted Carter bad enough to move up a pick. He is a special talent and going to Philly with his former teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean there is great for him. He needs to prove he can be a good guy, he needs to mature as a person. He’s a great player on the field, get him straight off the field, the sky is the limit.

Chicago Bears – Darnell Wright OT Tennessee

There’s the new RT for the Bears. Braxton Jones stays at LT and Wright becomes the starting RT right away. I had him in my mock draft to Chicago, he fits. He’s a huge dude who can move. No more Larry Borom, Teven Jenkins, this guy, that guy, it’s Wright, it’s his job. It’s not a sexy pick but he makes Justin Fields better, he makes the running game better, he solidifies the line.

Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski OL Northwestern

Skoronski could start at any of the five spots on the line and be an upgrade for the Titans. Good pick up

Detroit Lions – Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama

Holy shit Lions. Gibbs is a stud and I have to assume this means they are going to move D’Andre Swift. Swift can’t stay healthy and Gibbs can complement David Montgomery. This is truly shocking this high but Detroit traded down and picked up extra picks so they are reaching here. Here’s the first truly holy shit moment.

Please, please, please Green Bay, don’t take Gonzalez, they shouldn’t but please leave him for New England.

Green Bay Packers – Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa

There he is. Go Hawks. Van Ness has plenty of physical gifts and he needs some refinement. He has enormous potential.

Damn it Belichick, just take Gonzalez

Pittsburgh Steelers – Broderick Jones OT Georgia

Jones was my favorite OT, I wish the Patriots didn’t have 6 middling OTs and they would have taken him. Jones is light years ahead of Dan Moore, he makes the offensive line way better.

New York Jets – Will McDonald IV Edge Iowa St.

There’s the second holy shit pick. Great athlete with a deadly spin move but it’s his only move too. This is a reach. I love a Cyclone going to the Jets, I can just feel fine continuing to hate him. He and Breece Hall, Cyclones to the Jets, yep, can’t stand them. They panicked after the Steelers moved up to get the last good tackle, New England made that trade just to screw the Jets over? Now I don’t hate it so much.

Washington Commanders – Emmanuel Forbes CB Miss St.

Yikes. The Commanders need CBs but Forbes is 166 lbs. Really surprised he went a head of Christian Gonzalez and Joey Porter Jr. He can get his hands on the ball but someone might break him in half. He can cover Davonta Smith but if he has to line up against AJ Brown, good luck.

New England Patriots – Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon

Wooohooo!!! The Patriots got the guy. He’s a bigger CB they need and the trade down worked out because the Jets and Commanders screwed up. Belichick got lucky but that works some times. No WR and my favorite CB, awesome.

I’ve been thinking about this for a few minutes since Detroit’s first pick. The Patriots need a complement to Rhamondre Stevenson and the D’Andre Swift would be an excellent guy to do that and be the James White replacement they haven’t found. Belichick, call up Brad Holmes and make it happen.

Detroit Lions – Jack Campbell LB Iowa

Wow, just wow. I didn’t think he was going in round one and he goes 18th? This is a huge need for them and he fits with Malcolm Rodriguez, who is a small LB, Jack is a big dude. They will love him. Their fans will love him. He will set a tone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh

This draft is drunk. Kancey is so small, short arms, this is a reach. How did they pass on Levis with only Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at QB. Teams must really hate Levis, it’s weird. Kancey is a subpackage pass rusher, that’s it.

Seattle Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio St.

Gee, I wonder if he can beat out Dwayne Eskridge at slot receiver? Oh wait, he just did. He’s the slot guy, getting a hell of a lot balls thrown his way with Lockett and Metcalf taking all the real coverage. He’s amazing in the slot, could be the offensive rookie of the year.

Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston WR TCU

I like other WRs better and I like other WRs better for what they need. Johnston can play but he plays a very specific way. He is really good yards after the catch (YAC). They need guys who can make plays but I would have really liked a true deep threat. He can develop into something more but they have to use him right. Your move Kellen Moore.

Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers WR Boston College

Hey, Lamar gets a new contract and actual WRs to play with. Odell Beckham Jr, Nelson Agholor, Rashod Bateman, and now Zay Flowers in the slot. That’s the best WR group Lamar has ever had in his professional career. Zay is a playmaker, I guess it won’t be Mark Andrews, Mark Andrews and more Mark Andrews.

If the Vikings don’t take Will Levis he’s falling into the second round unless someone comes back into the end of round one for him. Maybe, maybe the Saints think he’s too good to pass on with Derek Carr’s contract not that long.

Minnesota Vikings – Jordan Addison WR USC

So it’s the WR portion of the draft. Addison is a good WR, he’s a bit light but he only has to be the second guy with Justin Jefferson as the true #1 WR. The Levis tumble continues. Addison can be a playmaker.

New York Giants – Deonte Banks CB Maryland

Well, they needed a CB with size. Banks has size and he’s a really good athlete. He can start on the outside right away opposite Adoree’ Jackson if Jackson sticks around.

Buffalo Bills – Dalton Kincaid TE Utah

They wanted to get another weapon for Josh Allen, Kincaid is a really impressive offensive player. He can improve their offense by giving them another dimension.

Dallas Cowboys – Mazi Smith DT Michigan

Here’s another surprise. Smith is a nose tackle and this isn’t where I thought they were going. Smith is a plugger, he’s a rugged run stuffer in the middle who can wreck an offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma

The Jaguars make a smart play here. Cam Robinson is suspended for PEDs to start the year and Harrison could replace him now and for the future. Harrison is an athletic guy who just needs some more reps to get better. The Chiefs might be disappointed here, they may have to change their plans.

Cincinnati Bengals – Myles Murphy DE Clemson

He fell a lot farther than many thought, including me, but he is a guy who needs some development. He doesn’t finish his pass rushes with sacks as much as you might like. Talented guy, not a big producer.

New Orleans Saints – Bryan Bresee DT Clemson

Hey, I got this one right. He fills a huge hole for them. He’s good, he might be great if he isn’t dealing with all the personal issues he had last year with his sick sister passing away. Good for him, you have to root for this guy.

Philadelphia Eagles – Nolan Smith LB Georgia

The Eagles are just drafting Georgia’s defense from 2021. They have four Georgia defenders. I’m marking it down now, CB Kelee Ringo in round two.

There are going to be some good players in Round 2…tomorrow should be fun.

Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas St.

They need an edge rusher who really gets around the edge. This might be slightly high but he fills a huge need and he will play a lot for him.

Thanks for hanging around all night. This was as crazy as I thought it would be. Two Hawkeyes in round one is always great. Tomorrow, Will Levis, Hendon Hooker, Brian Branch, Michael Mayer, all tomorrow night. Love the draft, good night.