This division should be dominated by the 49ers when you look at their roster compared to everyone else.  Unfortunately, they had questions piling up all over during training camp and didn’t answer most of them until the first week of the season.  The Rams have the best QB and the offense should be excellent but the defense is young and just lost Aaron Donald to retirement.  The Cardinals have Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. in an offensive that wasn’t bad last year without them.  The Cards defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Seahawks are a team in transition but if the offensive line holds up, Geno Smith has the weapons to be good and Mike McDonald could turn this defense around quickly.  This should be an interesting division race to watch all year. 

San Francisco 49ers

I have to pick this team to win the division because this roster is loaded and Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the business.  That doesn’t mean there aren’t serious questions that could derail this team.  The offense is loaded with skill position players, or is it.  RB Christian McCaffrey is the best RB in the league and it’s not close.  He has a calf strain which doesn’t sound like a bad injury but McCaffrey has had soft tissue injuries in the past that lingered, this isn’t how you want to start the year.  They have WRs Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and first-round pick Ricky Pearsall.  Well they just got Aiyuk signed to a new contract after a contentious contract negotiation where he missed most of camp.  Oh, and Pearsall will miss at least the first month of the season after getting shot in the chest.  Thankfully, he’s okay and expected to fully recover but that’s not a great way to start your rookie season.  That leaves Samuel as the top guy and he’s getting older and isn’t as effective as he once was.  They have TE George Kittle, he’s awesome.  Kittle turns 31 in October, he had off season surgery that led to him losing a bunch of weight and he’s been trying to pack it back on before the season, that’s not ideal.  QB Brock Purdy runs Shanahan’s offense very well but if he’s working with Deebo, Kittle, and Jauan Jennings as his best pass catchers it’s not going to look as pretty. 

Shanahan’s offenses always have great offensive line play and can always run the ball.  Well, LT Trent Williams, arguably the best offensive lineman in football, missed all of camp and just got the new contract he wanted.  He’s 36 and the team certainly didn’t want to give him a long extension but again, he’s the best in football.  The rest of the line is not great and without Williams, they may have been awful.  The running game won’t be awesome without McCaffrey either, Elijah Mitchell hasn’t stayed healthy the last few years and I’m not sure Jordan Mason is really a guy. 

The defense has one big question, is first-time defensive coordinator Nick Sorenson up to the task?  After having Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans running the defense for his entire tenure, Shanahan had to fire Steve Wilkes after one year because the unit was not nearly good enough.  He promoted Sorenson, who’s never been a coordinator, that’s a lot of pressure.  He still has Nick Bosa at DE and they have to hope DT Javon Hargrave bounces back from a disappointing year.  They changed out most of the rest of the DL rotation with DT Maliek Collins, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Leonard Floyd and DT Jordan Elliot all new up front. 

Fred Warner returns at MLB and he’s probably the best LB in football.  He doesn’t have his running mate back yet as Dre Greenlaw is on the PUP list after getting hurt in the playoffs last season.  That hurts, they don’t have a great replacement.  CB Charvarius Ward is one of the best in football and I like CB Deommodore Lenoir but he’s more of a third CB.  They drafted Renardo Green but I’m not sure that helps enough.  Getting SS Talanoa Hufanga back will be huge after he got hurt last season.  The secondary lacks difference makers after Ward and Hufanga. 

Los Angeles Rams

I’m giving the Rams a bit of a bump here because Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are better known quantities than the coach/QB combos in Seattle and Arizona.  Stafford had a massive year last year even with Cooper Kupp banged up for a large part of the season.  He turned then-rookie WR Puka Nacua into a star and then when Kupp came back they were both excellent.  Stafford runs McVay’s offense beautifully.  He even makes WRs like Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell useful and he may have another good rookie in Jordon Whittington this season (another later round find).

Kyren Williams was fantastic last year even if Sean McVay has a tendency to run his RBs into the ground.  This year they drafted Blake Corum and perhaps McVay will decide Williams doesn’t have to take 95% of the carries for the year.  The offensive line got juiced a bit in the off season when the team signed LG Jonah Jackson from Detroit and moved Steve Avila to center.  If Jackson is healthy and RG Kevin Dotson can play like he did last year, this team should run the ball quite well.  LT Alaric Jackson is suspended for the first tow games of the year but he’s better than he gets credit for and RT Rob Havenstein does just fine. 

This defense lost the best defensive player in football as Aaron Donald decided to retire.  There is no way to replace him with one guy so they aren’t even going to try that.  They drafted DT Braden Fiske and DE Jared Verse, both from Florida St. to add to DT Kobie Turner and OLB Byron Young, their two young front seven guys from last year’s draft.  Turner was pretty good last year but he benefitted from all the attention Donald commanded.  Now he and Fiske need to split the attention up front.  Verse and Young can be the edge players who bring the pressure from the outside, something Young was mostly responsible for.  Although Michael Hoecht held his own and he makes for a nice third pass rusher now. 

Ernest Jones IV got himself traded to Tennessee and that leaves Christian Rozeboom and Omar Speights as the non-descript ILBs for this team.  The secondary is where things get dicey.  The CB spot was not good last year so they signed Tre’Davious White, after the Bills let him go because he’s been injured a lot lately.  They signed Darius Williams who once left them for Jacksonville, he’s an upgrade over last years CBs but that’s a low bar.  They signed SS Kamren Curl from Washington.  Signing a Commanders defender to improve your defense seems like a bad idea but Curl is actually good.  They also brought back John Johnson III at FS, he can’t be worse than they had last year.  It’s duct tape, bubble gum, and hope holding this secondary together but they have done worse.  

Seattle Seahawks

After the long Pete Carroll tenure they finally decided to move on. Mike Macdonald was arguably the hottest name on the assistant coaching market and Seattle remained patient and got their man.  Macdonald needs to fix the defense, which is his specialty, he brought in former Washington Huskies OC Ryan Grubb to fix the offense.  The offense has talent all around but the scheme was unimaginative and offensive line was in shambles last year.  Geno Smith is fine at QB, no one is going to mistake him for Patrick Mahomes but he can run Grubb’s offense.  He has three good WRs in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  They need Metcalf to play like an alpha, he has to be the top playmaker.  Lockett is aging but his game has always been about beating the other guy with his know-how so he should age fairly well.  JSN had some nagging injuries that bothered him at times last season but if he’s healthy, he’s really good out of the slot.  They still have Noah Fant at TE, he’s not elite but he’s useful in the passing game. 

The running game should be in the capable hands of Kenneth Walker III but perhaps Grubb will use Zach Charbonnet more than they did last season.  Grubb had a big, physical RB at Washington last season, Dillon Johnson, and people forget that because the passing game was so potent.  The real issue on offense is the offensive line.  The interior was awful last year and the OTs were hurt.  LT Charles Cross is very good when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last season.  RT Abe Lucas missed a lot of the season and he’s still on the PUP list, that’s not ideal.  They need these two to get healthy and stay that way.  They signed C Connor Williams, who’s also a big injury risk because they were awful at center last year.  Williams is good, but again, he has to be on the field.  LG Laken Tomlinson is 32 and hasn’t been in his prime in several years but he’s still better than what they had. RG looks like Anthony Bradford but they should give rookie Christian Haynes a real shot at the job. 

The defense starts up front with Jarran Reed, Jonathan Hankins, and Leonard Williams, three solid veterans.  They are all on the wrong side of 30 but Macdonald will get the best out of them.  Williams isn’t the guy he was at his peak but he can still bring it from time to time.  The wild card is rookie Byron Murphy II. He is a game wrecking talent and Macdonald should unleash him and let him destroy teams.  The pass rush is a work in progress.  It seems they are using Dre’Mont Jones there, he has always been more of a lineman than a LB but we shall see.  Uchenna Nwosu is returning from injury and probably their best chance at a true edge rusher.  They also have Boye Mafe and rookie Derick Hall, we will see if Macdonald can turn those guys into difference makers. 

They cleared out the LB group and signed Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson in free agency.  They add some speed and youth after the team relied heavily on Bobby Wagner last year.  The secondary is where Macdonald needs work his magic.  Devon Witherspoon is a talent that they need to figure out how best to use him.  Riq Woolen was really good as a rookie two years ago and then not good last year, fix him and you have a big, physical outside CB.  At safety, they let Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs go and they already had Julian Love to replace one spot.  They signed Jaguars cast-off Rashawn Jenkins to be the SS, not sure that’s great.  Baltimore had some great defensive back play under Macdonald, he needs to find that magic here. 

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are entering year two for Jonathan Gannon and year one went better than expected especially when you consider Kyler Murray was out for about half the year.  OC Drew Petzing put together an offense that was way better than the talent he had to work with.  Once Murray came back, he looked good running that offense too.  They found a good young piece to their passing game with TE Trey McBride proving to be a real weapon.  He didn’t have a lot of help so the Cardinals drafted the best WR prospect since Julio Jones, Marvin Harrison Jr.  Harrison is going to be a monster and he’s ready to step in as WR1 on day one.  He and McBride are top talents that should make Murray’s life a little easier.  Michael Wilson had a decent rookie year and should be the second WR on this team while Greg Dortch is the slot guy.  Wilson and Dortch aren’t game changers and there’s virtually no depth but you have to start somewhere. 

The running game will be capably in the hands of James Connor who is solid and completely unspectacular.  They did draft Trey Benson in round three and he has some juice, I like Benson.  The offensive line shuffles a bit with Paris Johnson Jr. moving from RT to LT after DJ Humphries was cut and the team signed Jonah Williams from Cincinnati to be the RT.  I’m not a Williams fan but he’s passable.  The interior isn’t stellar but Hjalte Froholdt held his own at center so that’s helpful.  The guards are not great and that could send Murray scrambling a bit, that’s not a bad thing, he’s good at it.  As long as it doesn’t get him killed. 

The defense is the reason I’m picking this team to finish last in the division.  They don’t have much on this side of the ball.  There are unproven rookies and second-year guys, veterans that nobody else really wants, and then Budda Baker.  The line has DTs Bilal Nicols and Justin Jones along with converted LB Zaven Collins, rookie Darius Robinson, and maybe Dante Stills.  That’s an uninspiring group to say the least.  At LB it’s guys like Dennis Gardeck, Mack Wilson Sr., and Kyzir White.  Not setting the world on fire with that group.  The secondary has CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting, Garrett Williams, and rookie Max Melton.  Yikes. Jalen Thompson is fine at SS but FS Budda Baker is a good player who gets overwhelmed because he’s trying to cover up for the lack of talent everywhere else.  I just can’t put this team competing for the division or the playoffs with this defense.      

Josh Allen and the Bills have owned this division lately and while a healthy Aaron Rodgers and some changes in Buffalo will make it harder, I’m not betting against the Bills.  Tua and the Dolphins won’t be an easy out for anyone until the weather changes and then we will see if their offense can give them enough to still be relevant.  The Patriots are starting the rebuild and trading Matt Judon was the latest indication they know they aren’t competing.  I don’t think the Patriots will be terrible, the defense will still be too good for them to be awful, but there will be growing pains on offense. 

Buffalo Bills

When in doubt, don’t bet against Josh Allen when his biggest competition in the division is Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett.  Allen may have lost his long-time top receiver when they traded Stefon Diggs but Joe Brady had phased Diggs out of the offense the last half of last season and this WR group gives Allen more options than just Diggs or Gabe Davis.  Brady took over midseason last year when Sean McDermott fired Ken Dorsey to save himself.  Brady promptly made James Cook a more prominent piece of the offense and just designed the run game better.  He deemphasized Diggs in the passing game and Khalil Shakir became a more useful player.  This year Diggs and his poor attitude are gone and they signed former Brady favorite Curtis Samuel, drafted Keon Coleman, and will once again use Shakir instead of sidelining him. 

Samuel had his best season playing under Brady when they were in Carolina together.  Coleman is one of my favorite rookie WRs, he can big-boy some catches over guys and he’s just a playmaker.  Shakir finally started to look like a real player when they got him the ball.  TE Dalton Kincaid has loads of potential and could lead this team in catches if he and Allen can find a rhythm. TE Dawson Knox is a good player too.  The run game was more effective under Brady and James Cook found running room behind an offensive line that should be pretty good this season even with a couple of changes. This is the most non-descript offensive line in the league but they are generally good.  LT Dion Dawkins has become a really excellent player but no one else on the line distinguishes themselves.   

Sean McDermott is a smart defensive mind and he’s going to have to show it this season with some significant changes in his secondary and looking like he’ll be missing Matt Milano again at LB.  The front four should be fine with DEs Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa two guys who can still get better as they hit their prime years.  They need Von Miller to be a good designated pass rusher but they can’t count on him to be anything more. DT Ed Oliver is one of the best in the league even if he often gets left out of the top DT conversation.  There are guys with higher profiles but Oliver is a menace. The LB corps takes a hit with Milano having another preseason injury.  They let Tyrell Dodson leave in free agency expecting Milano back to pair with Terrell Bernard, Milano tore his biceps and will miss significant time.  The second level of the defense could be an issue. 

The secondary lost Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde (all of whom were injured at one time or another last season) and their replacements leave a lot to be desired.  Unless CB Kaiir Elam tosses off the bust label and becomes the player they thought he was when they drafted him in round one a few years ago, this secondary lacks talent.  Everyone seems to be picking on the WR group as the thing holding this team back, I’ll take the secondary with CB Rasul Douglas, CB Christian Benford, S Taylor Rapp and S Damar Hamlin as the starters as a reason to doubt this team.  But doubting Sean McDermott’s defense doesn’t feel right.   

New York Jets

The Jets are all-in on this season because if they don’t win now Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas are probably looking for new jobs next season.  Aaron Rodgers returns off an Achilles injury and he’s 40 (he’ll be 41 in December).  They signed multiple injury risk veterans to fill holes, LT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams most notably.  Smith joins a reworked offensive line with John Simpson set to play LG next to him, Morgan Moses at RT, and rookie Olu Fashanu ready to step in when Smith misses time.  The line should be much improved if this unit stays healthy but Smith and Moses are both 33 and RG Aijah Vera-Tucker has missed significant time with injuries too.  If the line fails the offense falls apart. 

WR Mike Williams has been quite banged up in his career but if he can stay healthy, he gives them a really good complement to Garrett Wilson.  Wilson can be a breakout star with Rodgers throwing him the ball.  He has all the talent in the world but has been saddled with awful QB play in his NFL career.  Even a 40-year-old Rodgers coming off an Achilles tear is a massive step up.  RB Breece Hall will be the engine of this group. He’s a superior talent and was great last season when the offensive line was terrible and the defenses weren’t scared of the passing game at all. Hall should be even better this season. 

The defense was very good last year even with an offense that was doing them no favors.  There are some changes that could affect it and they are mostly up front.  They let Bryce Huff leave in free agency and traded for Hassan Reddick to fill his spot.  The problem is Reddick wants a new contract and is holding out and asking for a trade.  If they don’t have him, it’s up to Jermaine Johnson, who I like, and Will McDonald IV, not so much, to bring the pass rush.  McDonald isn’t a full-time player and there isn’t much depth on the edge even with Reddick.  DT Quinnen Williams is a star but they are pinning a lot of hope on Javon Kinlaw being better than he’s even been next to Williams inside.   

LBs CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams are legitimately one of the best pairs in the NFL.  At CB, Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, and Michael Carter II, are an excellent trio.  Gardner is a top three CB in the NFL and Reed is underrated.  The safety spot should be fine but not elite.  Chuck Clark and Tony Adams aren’t keeping offensive coordinators up at night. 

Miami Dolphins

Mike McDaniel has put together an elite offensive unit and the team committed to Tua as their starter for the foreseeable future so they are going with it.  The one problem is this offense is built on speed and when things slow down, they get a little out of sync.  McDaniel is a mad genius so he can try to tweak things but they need to strike while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are at their peak, mostly Hill.  Hill is the most dangerous offensive threat in the league and he dictates everything they do.  They signed Odell Beckham Jr. to be their third WR because they didn’t have one but he’s still on the PUP list so he’s out the first month at least.  I’m not counting on Beckham but I actually like rookie Malik Washington eventually.  Braxton Berrios just doesn’t do it for me. 

The running game was excellent behind Raheem Mostert who stayed mostly healthy last season and De’Von Achane who is a homerun waiting to happen.  Achane didn’t stay healthy most of the season so the team doubled down on speed backs by drafting Jaylen Wright.  Wright has great speed but is built a lot sturdier than Achane.  The offensive line is where this gets dicey.  Terron Armstead is back at LT for however long he lasts this season, he’s injured a lot.  They lost interior players Connor Williams and Robert Hunt and they are counting on Isaiah Wynn, Robert Jones, and Aaron Brewer inside, that’s not ideal.  Somehow, RT Austin Jackson is the lone bright spot on this line. 

The defense wasn’t good last year and they mostly blamed Vic Fangio.  He wasn’t the culture or scheme fit they needed so they moved on.  Now former Ravens’ assistant Anthony Weaver will take his shot at being the defensive coordinator but he’ll do it without DT Christian Wilkins who they lost in free agency.  They signed soon to be 38-year-old Calais Campbell and that’s actually and upgrade from what they had left over.  They need Zach Sieler to continue to develop.  The pass rush would be built around Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips, two very talented players who are both coming back from serious injuries, but Chubb will also miss the first month since he’s on the PUP list too. They drafted Chop Robinson but he’s a raw pass rusher who they plan  start, that’s less than ideal.  If you told me fellow rookie Mohamed Kamara was more productive this year, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

The ILBs are solid, newly signed Jordyn Brooks is a good player if he can stay on the field.  David Long Jr. was good last season too and Anthony Walker is a nice rotational guy to have.  The secondary has two excellent players in CB Jalen Ramsey and S Jevon Holland, the other spots have questions.  CB Kendall Fuller is a veteran who was on some bad Washington defenses, he might be better as a #2 to Ramsey instead of as a #1 in Washington.  S Jordan Poyer was a long-time stalwart in Buffalo but he’s getting older and coming off an injury. 

New England Patriots

The Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett to be their starting QB so they wouldn’t have to start Drake Maye behind an awful offensive line.  The problem is Maye is better suited to play behind a bad offensive line because he’s the better athlete who can actually get himself out of trouble.  The offensive line is going to be a problem unless they address the fact they don’t have a left tackle.  Vederian Lowe is bad, Chuks Okorafor is so bad they stopped playing him there and started playing Lowe, Caeden Wallace is so bad they barely tried him there. They need to either sign a veteran (someone give them Donovan Smith’s number) or trade for someone (what would it take to get the Steelers to give up Dan Moore Jr?).  The rest of the line can be pieced together, LG Sidy Sow, C David Andrews, RG Michael Onwenu, and RT Caeden Wallace, or move Onwenu out to RT and start Layden Robinson at RG.  This would work if they had an average LT, they don’t. 

The skill positions are all about potential.  RB Rhamondre Stevenson was great a few years ago and perhaps new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt can find that guy again.  They also added Antonio Gibson who gives them the pass catching back they have been missing since James White retired.  At WR they had eight guys to pick from.  Kendrick Bourne and KJ Osborn are the veterans with Bourne coming off a serious knee injury and starting the year on the PUP list.  Demario Douglas was their best playmaker last year and the slot belongs to him this season.  Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker were draft picks this season with high upside, Polk should be the top outside target eventually.  Douglas, Osborn, and Tyquan Thornton are penciled in as the starters until Bourne gets back and the rookies get comfortable.  Kayshon Boutte beat out Jalen Reagor for the last spot in the top six but he’s job is tenuous as Bourne will eventually be back.  Thornton has to take advantage of his playing time right now because the rookies are lurking and Bourne will take his starting spot when he gets back unless he proves too good to bench.

The Patriots’ defense was excellent last year even after losing Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez in the fourth game of the year.  Gonzalez is back to be the #1 CB he’s destined to be but the team traded Judon early in camp to Atlanta.  That’s understandable as he’s 32, coming off an injury and doesn’t fit the Patriots timeline.  They can make do without him although it will be harder with DT Christian Barmore sidelined with a blood clot condition.  Barmore looked like a breakout star last season so he’s hard to replace.  DE Keion White will have to be the breakout star of the defense this year and he looks poised to do it.  Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche will be the OLBs with Judon gone.  Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavi on the inside are solid not spectacular guys. 

This defense does have depth all over, they may not be teeming with superstars everywhere but their guys fit their scheme, do their jobs, and the sum is greater than its parts.  Where they do have some talent is in the secondary.  Gonzalez could be a superstar at CB.  Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones should be a fine CB2 and nickel.  Jabrill Peppers is better in this defense than he has been anywhere else.  And Kyle Duggar is a force at safety playing all over the field.  The defense will keep this team from being terrible no matter what the offense looks like but hopefully lets them be bad enough to get a top 10 draft pick next year so they can solve their LT issue in the 2025 draft.     

This division has been a tough one over the past several years.  The Bengals and Browns are no longer laughingstocks of the league and the Ravens and Steelers remain consistent.  The Bengals get Joe Burrow back but there are still some questions about his wrist.  The Browns’ roster is really good but they have Deshaun Watson at QB and he hasn’t been good for a while.  The Ravens are the picture of consistency but their offensive line gives me pause and there was a brain drain on the defensive coaching staff.  The Steelers always finish about .500 but can they do better than 9-8 with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as their QB options?  I have my doubts. 

Cincinnati Bengals 

The Bengals are my pick to go from worst to first in their division this season.  It happens regularly in the NFL and this team is getting Joe Burrow back.  Yes, I’m concerned he has wrist injury that no QB has ever had before but I’m betting on a bounce back year from him and this team is trying to win.  They didn’t trade Tee Higgins because having him and Ja’Marr Chase at WR gives their offense their identity. They are giving Burrow one last shot to win with his two elite receivers at his disposal.  They signed Zack Moss to replace Joe Mixon at RB but I’m more interested in what Chase Brown gives them there.  The offensive line is only replacing RT Jonah Williams.  They signed Trent Brown which I can tell you is a bad plan, but they also drafted Amarius Mims.  Mims is hurt at the moment but he should be back right around the time Trent Brown gets hurt, Brown is always hurt at this point.  If guys like rookie WR Jermaine Burton and TE Mike Gesicki can contribute, this offense will have plenty of weapons.  It’s all on Burrow’s wrist being fine. 

While the offense wasn’t good once Burrow got hurt, it wasn’t their biggest issue last year.  The defense fell off a cliff and they need Lou Anarumo to get this unit back to where he once had it.  Trey Hendrickson is their one true pass rusher and they need him more than ever.  It would help if Sam Hubbard or Myles Murphy or Joseph Ossai could figure out how to get some pressure.  DT Sheldon Rankins can help some but he and rookie Kris Jenkins Jr. have to replace DJ Reader next to BJ Hill.  The LBs are the same group but Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson have to be better than they were last season.

The secondary was a serious issue, especially at safety.  They’re moving Dax Hill back to CB and replacing both safety spots.  Geno Stone is a nice piece and they brought back veteran Vonn Bell who knows Anarumo’s defense.  They are still counting on Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner at CB but hopefully Mike Hilton, Dax Hill, and rookie Josh Newton give them some depth that will make them better. 

Baltimore Ravens

It’s tough picking against the Ravens, they have Lamar Jackson and now their running game has Derrick Henry, but I’m not convinced this offense will be great just yet.  Jackson covers up a lot of issues but they will have three new starters on the offensive line and one of the returning starters is LT Ronnie Stanley, he hasn’t been the picture of health for quite some time.  That puts a lot on C Tyler Linderbaum.  Andrew Voorhies should start at LG after missing his rookie year coming off an injury.  I’m not sure who the RG is just yet and it’s either rookie Roger Rosengarten at RT or Patrick Makari, I’m no bathed in confidence.  The good news on offense would be a healthy return of TE Mark Andrews, Lamar’s favorite target.  If he’s back, that takes some pressure off Zay Flowers, the only WR Jackson can count on.  Rashod Bateman will try to be worthwhile, he’s not great at that.  Nelson Agholor is okay but not great. They really should see what they have in rookie Devontez Walker, he might actually help.  They’re going to lean on Derrick Henry for sure and he’s used to running behind a suspect offensive lines after the last few years in Tennessee.

The defense returns almost all the key players from last year’s roster with the only real exceptions being OLB Jadaveon Clowney and ILB Patrick Queen.  Where this team really sees the turnover is on the defensive coaching staff.  Mike McDonald left to be the Seahawks head coach, that was foreseeable considering how good he was at his job.  But they also lost Anthony Weaver and Dennard Wilson who both left the staff to be defensive coordinators themselves.  Zach Orr moves from being the LB coach to replace McDonald as the coordinator meaning there are a lot of changes to deal with. 

The talent up front is special with Justin Madebuike having a breakout season last year and Roquan Smit being one of the best ILBs in the game.  The one place this team needs help is outside pass rush.  One of the young pass rushers; Odafe Oweh, David Ojabo, or rookie Adisa Isaac is going to have to give them something because Kyle Van Noy can’t be the best edge rusher again if they want to compete in the AFC. 

The secondary is deep and talented, led by S Kyle Hamilton. He’s the Swiss army knife every defensive coordinator wishes he had.  He erases so many mistakes. Marcus Williams is an excellent partner with Hamilton, he’s smart, experienced and doesn’t make mistakes. Marlon Humphrey is still a really good CB, he’s not what he once was, but he’s good.  Brandon Stephens holds his own at the other spot too.  They drafted Nate Wiggins, who is an excellent cover man, he’s spindly but tough.   

Cleveland Browns

The Browns can’t possibly have the bad injury luck they had last year on offense again, it’s just not possible.  RB Nick Chubb, LT Jedrick Wills Jr, RT Jack Conklin, RT Dawand Jones, and even QB Deshaun Watson (although that one may have helped them) were all for the season at some point.  The offensive line was hit particularly hard and this year they don’t have Bill Callahan to patch it together again.  WRs Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Jerry Jeudy should make a solid trio and if Nick Chubb comes back, he and Jerome Ford are a nice duo at RB.  TE David Njoku is a very good player and this offense will only be limited by Deshaun Watson’s problems.  Watson has yet to regain his playmaking ability he once showed in Houston and this team needs that guy if they are going to compete in this division and this conference. 

The defense can be dominating with Myles Garrett one of the absolute best pass rushers in the NFL.  He dominates up front and makes life hard for opposing offenses.  Za’Darius Smith and Ogbo Okonkwo proved to be decent pickups to give Garrett some pass rushing help even if neither one is great.   The interior of the line was better with Dalvin Tomlinson stuffing up the middle but they brought in more veteran stop-gaps again; Quinton Jefferson and Shelby Harris most notably.   

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is a playmaker and they signed Jordan Hicks to be a steady MLB.  The secondary is loaded with talent in CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson Jr, Greg Newsome are an awesome trio of CBs. With safeties Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill who are pretty good, this unit is tough.  This team is set up to be a contender if they can get better QB play and stay healthy all year.  It’s a tough division but they are built for it. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are another team with a really solid roster all over but major questions at QB.  Russell Wilson is supposed to be the starter but he started training camp injured and Justin Fields got reps with the starting unit.  Fields still has issues holding the ball too long but he’s a dynamic player with the ball in his hands so he adds something to the offense.  They are not great at WR with George Pickens the only proven commodity.  Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III, and rookie Roman Wilson don’t inspire confidence. 

This team should run the ball a lot so there should be plenty of carries to go around for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to share.  Warren is the more dynamic player so expect new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to lean on Harris.  The line will undergo some changes with two rookies, OT Troy Fautanu and C Zach Frazier, looking to find their way into the starting unit.  They need the talent upgrade to go with second-year OT Broderick Jones to make the offense actually work. 

The defense is going to be good, these are the Steelers we’re talking about after all, the defense is always good.  Cam Heyward is apparently ageless on the line and Keanu Benton was very good as a rookie.  They finally decided to solve their ILB issues by signing Patrick Queen and I think drafting Payton Wilson will help too.  The pass rush is going to be elite as long as TJ Watt is still around but Alex Highsmith is a solid edge rusher too. 

The secondary is where this team needs to get better.  Joey Porter Jr. proved he’s a high-level CB but someone else needs to step up.  They got Donte Jackson from Carolina in the Diontae Johnson trade, he’s fine but not great.  They have two young CBs they are hoping find their way, Corey Trice Jr. and Darius Rush. Two guys with size but Trice is coming off a missed rookie year with a torn ACL and Rush has already been on multiple teams in his first two years.  They signed Cam Sutton after the Lions dumped him after some legal problems, he’s facing a suspension but if he comes back this season, he’s a solid pickup on the field. This might be the year Mike Tomlin doesn’t break .500 and I only say that because they may still with Russell Wilson too long.      

The Eagles and the Cowboys look like the class of this division but they both come with questions too.  The Eagles fell apart at the end of last year and they changed both offensive and defensive coordinators in the off season.  The Cowboys have massive contract issues hanging over them with Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons still looking for new deals.  Also, the offense has many serious issues.  The Giants and Commanders are just trying to get their franchises going in the right direction at this point. 

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles face three major changes on offense.  The first one is the new scheme brought in by Kellen Moore who is the coordinator.  He’s mostly here to fix the passing offense as it looked broken last season.  Jalen Hurts is never going to be mistaken for Peyton Manning but he’s better than he looked last season.  With WR AJ Brown, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert and good pass catching RBs the passing game has all the talent it should need.  Speaking of the RBs, that’s another major change.  D’Andre Swift is out and they upgraded to Saquon Barkley.  Barkley is one of the most gifted RBs in the NFL and while he can be a boom or bust type of runner, he should boom way more behind this offensive line.  That’s the final change.  C Jason Kelce is retired and it will have a major effect, he was not only the brains of the line but a true leader of the team.  They were prepared for this eventuality with Cam Juergens set to move from RG to center but it’s not going to be the same.  Luckily, they have arguably the best o-line coach in the league, Jeff Stoutland, and LT Jordan Mailata and RT Lane Johnson might be the best OT tandem in the league.

The defense fell apart last year after Sean Desai took over for Jonathan Gannon who left to coach the Cardinals.  It got so bad in the middle of the year Desai got demoted and they turned to Matt Patricia, that only made it worse.  Now they moved on from all of that and hired Vic Fangio, the architect of one of the most used defensive schemes in the league.  Things can only get better but that doesn’t mean there aren’t challenges.  The defensive line loses Fletcher Cox to retirement and that means Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter are going to have to carry the load at DT.  They aren’t deep up front.  They do have some depth at pass rusher with Bryce Huff, Josh Sweat, Nolan Smith Jr, and Brandon Graham. 

They finally decided to address their ILB spot bringing in Devin White from Tampa Bay and Zack Baun from New Orleans.  Both guys have something to prove and both guys are upgrades for the Eagles.  The secondary was where they needed the most help so they went hard on the reset.  They re-signed CJ Gardner Johnson after his year away in Detroit, he’s back and he’s the type of versatile piece they need.  They also got lucky in the draft, twice.  Somehow, Quinyon Mitchell fell to them in round one and Cooper DeJean fell to them in round two.  Mitchell becomes the outside CB opposite Darius Slay and sends James Bradberry looking for a place to stick on the roster (he’s trying to convert to safety).  DeJean has incredible versatility that Fangio will find a way to use to his advantage. 

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had three very large anvils hanging over their heads this season; the contracts of QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, and DE Micah Parsons.  They got Lamb’s deal done just as they wrap up camp, that doesn’t solve the biggest issue.  Prescott can’t be franchised and there are plenty of teams ready to pounce if he hits free agency next spring.  Parsons is being a good soldier but if he has another great year his price tag only gets higher.  The team did almost nothing in free agency to help the roster and they are going to be counting on some rookies and some very-past-their-prime veterans to hold this thing together. 

If Lamb doesn’t show up and hit the ground running this offense is a mess.  Brandin Cooks is the next best WR and his glory days are behind him.  The running game is going to be in the hands of Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, that’s not great.  If Lamb gets off to a slow start, the offense might have to rely quite heavily on TE Jake Ferguson.  The offensive line is going to have rookie Tyler Guyton at LT, at center it’s either rookie Cooper Beebe or Brock Hoffman.  This is not ideal.  Dak may want to leave if this is the offense they are going to have around him. 

The defense has been pretty good the last few years and returns most of its important pieces.  The one thing missing is defensive coordinator Dan Quinn who is now the head coach in Washington. Mike Zimmer is returning to coaching as the new DC here and we will see if he can duplicate Quinn’s success.  Micah Parsons is a true superstar pass rusher and does other things too but he needs DeMarcus Lawrence to return to form at the other DE spot.  Lawrence is 32 so that’s not going to be easy.  They also need Mazi Smith to prove he was worth a first-round pick last year, they need him to stop the run. The Smith thing is so unpredictable they signed nearly 36-year-old Linval Joseph just in case, that’s the definition of desperation.   

The LB group is pretty suspect with Leighton Vander Esch having to retire due to injury and the only guy they brought in was Eric Kendricks.  Kendricks was once a key piece at MLB for the Vikings under Zimmer but that was a while ago.  The secondary gets Trevon Diggs back after he missed last season with an injury.  DaRon Bland stepped in for him and was truly special, but now he’s injured and will miss 6-8 weeks, that’s rough.  Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker return at safety, that position might not be quite as important under Zimmer as it was under Quinn.

New York Giants

The Giants made some upgrades on their offense starting with the line which was overdue.  LT Andrew Thomas was the only above average starter last year, he’s actually very good.  C John Michael Schmitz is the only other holdover, he struggled last season but he was a rookie playing on a bad line so he gets a pass.  Jermaine Eluemunor seems set to take over at RT with Evan Neal being hurt and being terrible.  Jon Runyan Jr. and Greg Van Roten are free agents set to start at guard.  I don’t think terrible line play was the reason Daniel Jones wasn’t good last year before he got hurt but it didn’t help.  They are planning on Jones at QB again and that’s the reason they won’t compete for the division. 

WR Malik Nabers was drafted sixth overall to be the #1 WR on this team and he has all the talent to do that, he just needs a new QB to get him there.  Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt aren’t a terrible group to try to work with at WR, they just aren’t all that accomplished either.  RB Devin Singletary was signed from Houston to replace Saquon Barkley, that’s a serious downgrade.  They were hoping rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. adds a little pizazz to the backfield as Singletary isn’t all that exciting, then Tracy got hurt in camp.  The Giants offense isn’t meant to have nice things.   

The defense actually has a chance to be good which is why I’m picking the Giants over the Commanders for third in this division.  They traded for Brian Burns to pair with Kayvon Thibodeaux at OLB which should really improve the pass rush especially with Dexter Lawrence up front.  Lawrence is one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league and Burns will complement him quite well.  The rest of the front seven is solid with Rakeem Nunez-Roches added from Tampa Bay and Bobby Okereke and Micah McFadden at ILB. 

The secondary was a problem last year and it didn’t help losing Xavier McKinney in free agency but they should be better overall.  Deonte Banks has CB1 potential while they added Dru Phillips in the draft, he could be a steal.  S Tyler Nubin is another rookie who should contribute heavily.  With the improved pass rush, there shouldn’t be as much pressure on the defensive backs and that should help a lot. 

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels isn’t my favorite QB prospect but he does have talent and he has talent around him.  WR Terry McLaurin is one of the most underappreciated talents in the league, he’s a legitimate WR1 who has never played with a good QB.  Daniels will be the most talented NFL QB of his career.  Jahan Dotson had a sophomore slump last year and the new regime just traded him to Philadelphia.  He’s a talented guy but when your team ships you off to a division rival for a box of hats, that means they don’t think very much of you.  RB Brian Robinson Jr. is the type of big, physical back who can be a workhorse and I really like that guy.  Austin Ekeler is the perfect complement to Robinson as the pass catching threat who keeps an offense moving.  TE Zach Ertz is past his prime so the team may need rookie Ben Sinnott to step up and don’t count out rookie WR Luke McCaffrey who is all of the sudden WR2. 

Like I said Daniels has talent around him, what he doesn’t have enough of is talent in front of him.  It’s a good thing he’s fast because he’s going to have to run away from pressure.  RG Sam Cosmi was solid last season and new C Tyler Biadasz is at least an above average starter.  That’s where the good news ends.  Rookie LT Brandon Coleman might be starting, he’s going to struggle.  He might be good in a couple of years but Daniels might be cooked by then if he’s sacked 80 times a year.  LG Nick Allegretti was a backup in Kansas City last season, he should still be a backup.  RT Andrew Wylie is passable but not much more.  This offensive line is going to make the offense less than sum of their parts. 

The defense was bad last year and they are hoping Dan Quinn can bring some of the magic he had in Dallas to turn this unit around.  The problem is Dorace Armstrong isn’t Micah Parsons and this team doesn’t have a Trevon Diggs at CB.  They signed Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. to help the pass rush, they can’t hurt it but they aren’t elite guys.  LB Frankie Luvu was a solid pickup but signing Bobby Wagner feels like desperation.  S Jeremy Chinn has always been a cool idea in theory but hasn’t ever been as good as people thought he should be, maybe Dan Quinn can turn him into Kam Chancellor but that’s a big ask.  Emmanuel Forbes Jr. had a bad rookie year, if Quinn can turn him around that would be amazing.  I did like the Mike Sanristil draft pick, that’s guys a player.   

The Chiefs are running this division until someone takes it away from them.  Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes give them a leg up on the competition but there are a couple of things that could be make you worry about that roster.  The good news for them is the Raiders are nowhere near competing, the Broncos have Bo Nix at QB, and while Jim Harbaugh is a major coaching upgrade over Brandon Staley, the Chargers roster is in flux. 

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs offense is Andy Reid’s brainchild and Patrick Mahomes’ incredible talent coming together to create magic but even they have limits if they don’t have help.  They won the Super Bowl last year using way more Isaiah Pacheco in the running game and only counting on Travis Kelce when it mattered most.  The WR group was unimpressive except for Rashee Rice in his rookie year but even that took some time to get going.  Rice had a rough off season and faces what could be a lengthy suspension from the league so the Chiefs went for a makeover at the position.  The team signed undersized WR Marquise Brown and drafted undersized WR Xavier Worthy in round one of the draft.  Both players bring a level of speed to the offense it’s been lacking since Tyreek Hill was traded.  The hope is they can push the ball down the field and open things up for Kelce and Rice in the intermediate zone. 

Kelce is getting older and his regular season usage isn’t what it once was but he’s still a deadly player when it counts.  The offensive line has four spots locked down, although they hope Jawaan Taylor can play better at RT, it’s LT that is the question.  Rookie Kingsley Suamataia has already taken the LT job from Wayna Morris and while he’ll have his growing pains, he should be fine.  Pacheco is the unquestioned starter but some of that is lack of competition.  He runs hard and gets the tough yards, that’s all they ask of him.   

Steve Spagnuolo has been one of the best defensive coordinators in the league for a while and he proved it last season again by winning another Super Bowl against a talented 49ers team.  They re-signed DT Chris Jones because he was the harder guy to replace and they traded away L’Jarius Snead instead because they like what they have behind him in the secondary.  Jones is a game wrecking player and while he’s a bit like Kelce in the fact he doesn’t always dominate the regular season, he shows up when it matters.  Nick Bolton is an excellent MLB and Drue Tranquill was really good last season, he now replaces Willie Gay.  The LB group is solid with those two and Leo Chanel.

Snead was an excellent player but the team has Trent McDuffie to take over as CB1 and they like the depth they have with Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, Nazeeh Johnson and even newly signed Kelvin Joseph.  Justin Reid and Bryan Cook are an excellent safety combination.  Spagnuolo is a creative defensive mind who knows how to construct pass coverage.    

Los Angeles Chargers

I cannot overstate the importance of the change from Brandon Staley to Jim Harbaugh for this team.  Staley was clearly in over his head and while Harbaugh may be coming from the college game, he’s not new to this, he’s been a successful NFL head coach before.  This season will be a transition but they will compete because they have the one thing you need to compete in the NFL, a legitimate QB.  Justin Herbert is the ultimate Harbaugh QB, he’s an elite processor who will do what the offensive scheme asks him to do, and he’ll do it well.  The question is the talent around him.  The offensive line should be fine.  LT Rashawn Slater can be better than he was last year, we’ve seen him do that before.  RT Joe Alt is a massive upgrade even if he’s a rookie who was a LT in college.  Bradley Bozeman steps in at center, he’s okay.  They need Zion Johnson to be way better than he was as a rookie last season but he has talent. 

The weapons are the major concern.  Rookie WR Ladd McConkey is going to need to be a real player.  WR DJ Chark is a veteran who has bounced around and Joshua Palmer has flashes but he’s pretty inconsistent.  RB Gus Edwards scored a lot of TDs in Baltimore last season but he’s just a guy.  JK Dobbins wishes he could be just a guy but you have to play to reach that level and he keeps getting hurt.  Jim Harbaugh had Colston Loveland at TE at Michigan last season, this year he has Will Dissly as his TE in LA, he’s going to miss Loveland. 

The defense will be in even more of a transition moving from Staley’s defense to the one run by Jesse Minter.  The personnel has been in transition for a while with them cycling through different defensive linemen the past few years trying to solve their run defense issues.  They still have Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack as their edge rushers but Bosa has constant health issues and Mack is 33, they can’t rely on these two much longer.  Harbaugh and Minter saw fit to draft their MLB from Michigan Junior Colson to try to stabilize the LB group, it’s been a problem for years.

The secondary is led by Derwin James and the hope is that Minter’s defense can unleash him.  He’s always been a good player but he has the potential to be elite.  They need their CBs to be better and Asante Samuel Jr. has talent to be good.  They signed Kristian Fulton to be the other outside CB and he’s underrated.  They need guys like Alohi Gilman and Ja’Sir Taylor to step up or it could be a long year. 

Denver Broncos

The hope for the Broncos starts with the fact that the marriage between Bo Nix and Sean Payton has to be infinitely better than the one between Payton and Russell Wilson because it can’t be worse.  Nix isn’t some superstar QB waiting to happen but he’s a solid player with loads of experience from college.  If Payton can set up the offense to feature Nix’s strengths and hide his weaknesses, the offense should at least function.  How well will depend on some other factors.  Luckily, they already dispensed with the “QB competition” crap and named Nix the starter.  No one was buying the Jarrett Stidham thing.      

The offensive line is fine but they will have a new center, Luke Wattenberg won the job.  It was a competition in camp to watch, way more than the QB one.  There are some weapons to like; WR Courtland Sutton, WR Josh Reynolds, and RB Javonte Williams come to mind.  Sutton is a legitimate top WR for a team and Reynolds is an underrated secondary playmaker.  Some people seem to be out on Williams after he struggled last season but I’m not.  He was coming off a major injury the year before and last year’s offense was a mess.  I think he bounces back.  TE Greg Dulcich is also a solid player and they hope Marvin Mims can be a weapon.  I still have hope that Troy Franklin will be a part of this offense given his connection from college with Nix because I’m not sure the other WRs fit Nix’s style.  Nix is a short area passer and Sutton, Reynolds, and Mims are more down field guys.  It’s a strange stylistic fit. 

The defense is a work in progress.  John Franklin-Meyers, DJ Jones, and Zach Allen are solid but unspectacular upfront.  Baron Browning, Jonathan Cooper, and Nik Bonitto are a decent trio of edge rusher but they could really use rookie Jonah Ellis giving them some help.  The ILBs are only okay after they lost Josey Jewell. Cody Barton an Alex Singleton aren’t getting anyone excited. The secondary has the best player on the defense in Patrick Surtain II.  He’s elite but he needs some help.  They signed Levi Wallace but he’s probably a backup.  They hope Riley Moss stays healthy this year because he’s probably the starter opposite Surtain.  They signed Brandon Jones to replace Justin Simmons, that feels like a downgrade at safety and they can’t afford that with the inconsistencies in the secondary. 

Las Vegas Raiders

The team played better under Antonio Pierce after he replaced Josh McDaniels last season but that’s not setting the bar very high.  It’s his show now and it might not be pretty.  The team will start Gardner Minshew at QB and that’s a tough place to be.  It’s even tougher when the new offensive coordinator is Luke Getsy.  I was never impressed with Getsy in Chicago and it’s not going to get easier in Vegas for him.  The pass catchers are a solid unit but with Minshew at the controls I’m not sure it matters. 

WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are a legitimate WR1/WR2 combination.  Brock Bowers is an elite talent at TE and Michael Mayer is an excellent TE too.  If this team had a QB I would be a little scared of the passing game.  RB Zamir White is a solid player and he has some potential but it’s going to be tough behind a lot of new faces up front and against defenses that aren’t afraid of the QB.  LT Kolton Miller and potential new LG Jackson Powers-Johnson were both hurt to start camp and that put Powers-Johnson behind.  RG Dylan Parham and RT Thayer Mumford are an uninspiring right side of the line.  C Andre James is fine but it won’t matter with this group. 

The defense is led by DE Maxx Crosby who is a superstar who deserves to be on a better team.  They signed DT Christian Wilkins to give Crosby some help up front but the rest of the defense is underwhelming.  They need young guys like DE Malcolm Koonce and Tyree Jackson to break out or it’s going to be a long year.  The LBs are also underwhelming.  Robert Spillane and Devine Deablo aren’t bad but they are limited.

The secondary needs Jack Jones to be a real player at CB.  He stepped in last year after they signed him after the Patriots cut him for personality reasons essentially.  He’s a talented yet mercurial player.  They don’t have a legitimate #2 outside CB, Jakorian Bennett is probably the closest one.  Nate Hobbs is a solid nickel player.  Safeties Tre’von Moehrig and Marcus Epps are fine but they are really not game changers.  The team also needs to find another CB to play opposite Jones.