2025 NFL Mock Draft 1

Pre Senior Bowl and Combine

This season has been all over the place with the draft order, it was like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall. One week it’s New England, then it’s Jacksonville, then it’s Las Vegas, then it’s the Giants, then back to New England who couldn’t complete the failure and ended up falling from #1 to #4 overall because the Bills were better at tanking a game than the Patriots in week 18. Of course, the Giants should have the 1^st pick in a draft that doesn’t have a good QB crop, that’s what you should get for paying Daniel Jones instead of Saquon Barkley but they blew it too so the Titans get #1 overall. Going into the season, Carson Beck was my #1 QB and then he pulled a reverse Joe Burrow, he went from possible #1 overall pick to a middle round pick at best. Then he got hurt and ended up taking a massive payday to rehab his elbow and head down to Miami to replace Cam Ward, who may end up being the 1^st pick that Beck was supposed to be. None of this year’s QBs deserve to be even a top 10 pick, spoiler alert, multiple QBs go in the top 10 of this draft. When you have desperate teams like the Titans, Giants, Raiders, Browns, Jets, and maybe others, the demand outweighs the supply and teams reach for an answer. Cam Ward and Shadeur Sanders are not great QB prospects, but if you’re looking at starting Tommy DeVito, Aidan O’Connell, a washed-up Aaron Rodgers, a floundering Will Levis, or hoping you don’t have to play an injured Deshaun Watson ever again, anyone looks better. Quinn Ewers declared for the draft and his stock is all over the place and if you told me he was the best rookie starting QB in 2025, I wouldn’t be completely shocked. Jalen Milroe is leaving Alabama for an uncertain draft slot and that’s probably best for him and Alabama, I’m not sure he was a great fit for Kalen DeBoer. What won’t be great is if someone takes Milroe and tries to start him immediately next season in the NFL, that would be ugly. If you really need a QB, I’m sorry but this just isn’t the draft for you. Wait until 2026, it should be better.

This first round is likely to be more defense heavy after last year’s first round was dominated by offensive players. If you’re looking for a pass rusher, the good news is there are a lot of them, the bad news is, I’m not sure which one is going to make an immediate impact. There are one and a half good CB prospects, one didn’t have as good of a year as you would have hoped (Will Johnson) and the other one is both a CB and a WR (Travis Hunter). The rest of the group all have some issues. WR has a few guys who look like players and RB is absolutely loaded and yet most of them will fall to day two. TE is solid, offensive line is okay. Defensive line is deep on the edge and pretty good inside. Just like every recent draft, LB has some good players but you can wait on drafting them. At safety, if you don’t get Malachi Starks, you can wait on them too. Nobody likes to wait on QB, on that note, here we go.

1. Tennessee Titans (3-14): Cam Ward QB Miami

I’m not sure Ward is the guy who fits what Brian Callahan wants to do offensively but he’s the best QB prospect in the draft and they can’t do another year with Will Levis. Ward has gotten better every year of college and he’s been in college a long time. He’s a bit chaotic and haphazard but he has special ability to move around and make plays. The Titans hired Mike Borgonzi as their new GM from Kansas City, he’s seen Patrick Mahomes up close for a long time. Ward isn’t Mahomes but there is a similar improvisation to their games Borgonzi may like. I’m not certain Borgonzi will be sold on Callahan as his long-term coach so drafting to fit Callahan’s style of offense may not factor in. One thing to keep in mind is the Titans could look for bridge QB and trade out of this pick to get some assets. After Sam Darnold flamed out in his last two games in Minnesota there’s a chance, he hits the market and Tennessee wouldn’t be a bad landing spot on a short-term deal and they can wait for a QB in 2026 or 2027. Darnold would fit fine in Callahan’s offense.

2. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Cleveland): Shadeur Sanders QB Colorado

The Browns have the second pick and they could take a QB but Kevin Stefanski needs to win now, not plan for later. They feel like a team that will sign someone like Kirk Cousins to a minimal contract as he cashes checks from Atlanta. Also, Deion Sanders has made it clear there are teams he doesn’t want Shedeur to go to, the Browns have been a QB graveyard for forever. The Raiders need a QB and Tom Brady has a relationship with Shadeur. Sanders isn’t the big, physical, strong-armed QB and he’s not a great athlete; he’s a guy who can run an offense and get the ball to his playmakers. Cleveland moves down, gets some assets, signs a veteran QB, and the Raiders move ahead of the Giants to get the QB they need, that’s a win-win situation.

3. New York Giants (3-14): Travis Hunter CB/WR Colorado

The Giants miss out on the QBs in this draft but I’m not sure that’s a bad thing. GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll need to win now and a rookie QB isn’t the answer. I’m not sure Sam Darnold is a fit since it’s New York, but Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, or even Justin Fields, gives them more of a chance at progress then guys in this rookie class. Hunter is the best overall prospect in the draft if he picks a position. He can be the CB1 the team was hoping Deonte Banks was going to be a couple years ago but hasn’t become yet. Hunter would also be a dangerous part-time WR opposite Malik Nabers. Whoever lines up a QB would appreciate having both of those playmakers around. They can look at a developmental QB later in the draft if they sign a veteran free agent and try to fix the offensive line with some other resources.

4. New England Patriots (4-13): Tetairoa McMillan WR Arizona

The Patriots have to get better at WR and LT and while I’m a big Will Campbell fan, for now, I’m betting they sign a LT and look to the draft for a WR. This all changes if the Bengals mess up the Tee Higgins contract negotiations and the Patriots swoop in with their ridiculous amount of cap space and sign him. If the Bengals re-sign Higgins and the Patriots can’t pull off a trade for a WR like AJ Brown or even DK Metcalf, then they sign a LT like Alaric Jackson or Cam Robinson, or trade for the Jaguars Walker Little (if he’s made available). McMillan is basically a cross between Higgins and Mike Evans and with Drake Maye throwing him the ball, this offense could really take off. I’m hopeful that Josh McDaniels can get the job done and at the very least he gives the Patriots stability and competence on the offensive side of the ball. McMillan can be the type of playmaker who can raise the play of guys around him by making their jobs easier.

5. New York Jets (TRADE from Jacksonville): Mason Graham DT Michigan

The Jets defense fell apart this last season just as much, if not more, than their offense. The defense was good in 2023 and was bad in 2024, the offense was bad both years. DT Quinnen Williams is still good in the middle but he’s working alone inside. Javon Kinlaw wasn’t good and he’s a free agent. The Jets make a small move to go from seven to five move ahead of the Browns to take Mason Graham. Graham is a stud on the inside and he can change the dynamic up front with this defense. You will have to pick your poison because you can’t double team Williams and Graham and that means at least one of them is one-on-one. The Jets defense suffered from bad play up front on defense and Graham fixes a lot of problems and makes life easier for Williams, DE Jermaine Johnson when he comes back from injury, and probably makes Will McDonald a more effective pass rusher because he’ll get plenty of one-on-one matchups outside with Graham in the middle. They could grab pass rusher Abdul Carter instead but edge rusher is a deeper position in this draft, taking Graham here and getting a pass rusher later makes more sense.

6. Cleveland Browns (TRADE from Raiders): Abdul Carter Edge Penn St.

The Browns would have loved to take Mason Graham and plug him in at DT next to Dalvin Tomlinson and for him to be Tomlinson’s eventual successor. They have Shelby Harris who is already 33 and Mike Hall Jr. who is young, inconsistent, and has some off the field baggage. Graham would have been great lined up with Myles Garrett. They will be equally as excited to get the uber-athletic pass rusher from Penn St. Abdul Carter, he fills a need too. He becomes the guy opposite Garrett who wreaks havoc because of his blinding speed off the edge and superior athleticism. He’s still working on refining his pass rush skill but playing with a guy like Myles Garrett who has perfected the pass rushing skill would be great for him. The pass rush would be outstanding with those two and would really help the secondary out a lot. Trading down and ending up with either Graham or Carter and signing a veteran QB would be an ideal move for Cleveland.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE from Jets): Will Johnson CB Michigan

The Jaguars move down, pick up some draft capital, and get the guy they really need, this would be good process. Johnson had a rough year at Michigan, not in terms of his play necessarily though. He had a shoulder injury and was fighting turf toe all year and he still was fine. Once he’s healthy, he’s an elite starting CB. He’s 6’2 200 lbs. and has excellent coverage skills. Jacksonville started guys like Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown at outside CB this season opposite Tyson Campbell. Campbell is a good CB but I’ve never been convinced he’s a true CB1 who can handle the best WRs in the league. I think Johnson can be that guy in the near future. The team has pass rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, and I could make the case they should stay at five and take Graham, but they need more help at CB and a trade down makes sense.

8. Carolina Panthers (5-12): Jalon Walker OLB Georgia

There is a pretty big divide over where Jalon Walker will go in this draft. He’s either going to go in the top 10 of the round one or the bottom 10, depending on who you ask. He’s undersized and can’t be a full time DE. He mostly played off ball LB for Georgia but they used him as a pass rusher and that’s where his athleticism sets him apart. He’s not a refined pass rusher and while he’s a top-notch athlete, he’s not Abdul Carter level. He’s a polarizing prospect but beggars can’t be choosers and the Panthers defense was awful. Jadeveon Clowney is a solid edge player but he’s not an elite pass rusher. They need someone who can bring some juice off the edge and Walker can do that. He can also fill in as a LB in regular formations too. Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is a far better coach than what his unit played like last season and it’s because he was playing short-handed. Giving Evero a versatile playmaker like Walker would be an ideal scenario.

9. New Orleans Saints (5-12): Mykel Williams DE Georgia

Williams didn’t blow up this year from a production standpoint like some thought he might but that’s not going to stop teams from drafting him. There are only so many 6’5 265 lbs. human beings on the planet that have the athleticism this guy has. The Saints have Carl Granderson and a very old Cameron Jordan at DE and the rest of the depth chart is heading for free agency. They love big, powerful DEs in New Orleans and that’s exactly what Williams is. He’s more potential than production but that has never stopped Mickey Loomis when it comes to drafting defensive linemen. Williams could become the next Cameron Jordan, of course he could also become the next Payton Turner. That’s what you get when you draft lottery ticket guys.

10. Chicago Bears (5-12): Kelvin Banks Jr. OL Texas

There seems to be a split on whether Banks is best suited to staying at LT or moving inside to OG, either way, the Bears need to improve their offensive line and Banks is a good place to start. I happen to still believe Braxton Jones will be a fine at LT but it would help if the play inside on the offensive line was better. Banks could be a replacement for Jones but I’m not sure he’s an upgrade, however, he’s a massive upgrade if he’s playing guard. The Bears are probably letting Teven Jenkins walk in free agency, he’s just too injury prone to pay big money for. Banks could slot in at LG and having more consistency there could help Jones improve at LT too. It seems early to take an interior offensive lineman but if you watched the Bears this year, it’s a completely understandable move and a necessary one. This won’t be the Bears only offensive line move this off season. They finally hired Ben Johnson and he’s coming from Detroit where everything on offense is easier because they have an awesome offensive line.

11. San Francisco 49ers (6-11): Will Campbell OL LSU

It’s generally accepted knowledge that Kyle Shanahan doesn’t like to spend high draft picks on offensive linemen because he believes his scheme makes linemen better than they are otherwise. He’s also the same guy who has had the best LT in football, Trent Williams, for his entire tenure in San Francisco and that can’t be lost on him. Williams is 38 and can’t play forever and even if he’s back for the next year or two, Campbell can either play RT or slide inside to LG. There are many who believe Campbell should be a guard, I would disagree, I think he can play OT. He’s started at LSU since his true freshman season and is a three-year starter. Either way, he’s an upgrade to the 49ers offensive line and they need some help as they have a few holes to plug.

12. Dallas Cowboys (7-10): Ashton Jeanty RB Boise St.

I know, this is the one everyone has in the mock draft so it’s probably wrong, but it shouldn’t be. I’m not as big of a fan of Jeanty as a prospect as some, trust me, he was amazing in college but I’m not sure it translates as well to the NFL. My concerns are that Jeanty is about 5’9 so he’s a little on the short side and while he is 215 lbs. I worry about the massive amount of carries he took at Boise St. That’s a lot of miles on those legs. He racked up huge numbers in college but he did it mostly against group of five competition and that concerns me. He does bring a skill set that should translate, he can play all three downs and be effective. I think he can be a good RB I’m just not sure he’ll be a great NFL RB. The reason I can see Dallas taking him is I think they hire Kellen Moore as their head coach and he just spent the season working with Saquon Barkley, the ultimate RB weapon. Jeanty isn’t Saquon but he brings skills that the Cowboys offense simply lacks and I think Moore will want a guy who gives him something to work with in the run game.

13. Miami Dolphins (8-9): Luther Burden III WR Missouri

The Dolphins need to get some help on the interior of the offensive line as they have a number of free agents coming up there and weren’t great to begin with, so of course they will pass on that and draft a WR. Tyreek Hill hinted at wanting out of Miami after he had a down year compared to his usual production. This isn’t just a response to that; the Dolphins don’t have any depth at WR beyond Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Even if they keep Hill, he’s going to be 31 and just had a down year. Malik Washington was a rookie last year who had 26 catches and he was basically their next best WR. If TE Jonnu Smith hadn’t been excellent for them, the passing game would have looked even worse. Burden is a small, stout pass catcher who does his best work out of the slot. He’s excellent at the crossers and over middle where Mike McDaniel likes to run his offense through. If they trade Hill for some draft capital, they could put Burden in and he and Waddle can become a dynamic duo. I’m not sure if Burden’s 40 time is going to put him on the Dolphins 4 x 100 relay team but he’s a dynamic player with the ball in his hands.

14. Indianapolis Colts (8-9): Malaki Starks S Georgia

The Colts defense was really bad last season and they fired defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and hired former Bengals DC Lou Anarumo. S Julian Blackmon is set to be a free agent and even if they re-sign him, they can use more talent in the secondary. Anarumo’s best defenses in Cincinnati had good safety combinations. Starks is a multifaceted safety who can make plays all over the field. At this point in the draft, Starks is a really good value pick too. The team could also use some help at interior offensive line if they can’t re-sign C Ryan Kelly and G Will Fries. There aren’t any centers worth taking this high but they could look to get a good young guard.

15. Atlanta Falcons (8-9): James Pearce Jr. DE Tennessee

The Falcons offense shouldn’t be the problem going forward now that they replaced Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix Jr. Drake London proved he’s a legit WR1, Bijan Robinson is an excellent RB and the offensive line is solid. The defense on the other hand was atrocious. They tried to find a pass rusher when they traded for Matthew Judon and he looked washed once he started to play. The Falcon’s haven’t had a great pass rusher since John Abraham a million years ago so they need to start there on defense. New defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich worked with some good undersized pass rushers when he was DC for the Jets; Bryce Huff and Will McDonald IV to name a couple. James Pearce Jr. is undersized at 6’5 245 lbs. but Ulbrich should be able to make him a useful player as a rookie and develop him over time. This defense needs a playmaker up front, Pearce can be one.

16. Arizona Cardinals (8-9): Kenneth Grant DT Michigan

Grant isn’t much of a pass rusher from the interior of the defensive line but he’s an immovable object against the run. The Cardinals have been running a 3-4 defense with some undersized ILB and having a man of Grant’s size 6’3 340 lbs. manning the nose tackle position would make life easier for them. He’s a pretty athletic guy for such a huge individual but what you want is him planting himself in the middle and occupying two blockers on every play. They drafted Darius Robinson at DE last year and he would also be far more effective on their three-man front if they had more size at NT. Roy Lopez did fine this year but he’s undersized for the role and he’s a free agent. The Cardinals have to address their defense and if there was a CB who I like here that would be the pick. However, the next best CBs are Shavon Revel Jr. and Benjamin Morrison and both are coming off season ending injuries, not a great investment in the middle of round 1.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8): Derrick Harmon DT Oregon

The Bengals defense wasn’t very good and while they fired Lou Anarumo, their defensive coordinator, it wasn’t his fault so many of their moves on defense failed. Draft picks like Myles Murphy, Joseph Ossai, Dax Hill and DJ Turner haven’t worked and free agents like Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone have failed to replace the talent they have lost. The interior defensive line was especially poor after looking DJ Reader this last season and Sheldon Rankins was awful. Harmon is a disruptive force inside even if his stats aren’t great. They need him to pair with Kris Jenkins Jr. to give them something on the inside. There isn’t a great edge bending pass rusher left on the board so I would go inside instead of repeating the Myles Murphy mistake by taking a guy like Nic Scourton or Shemar Stewart at this point. This might come down to who the new DC is in Cincinnati and what they prefer. They could take a shot on one of the injured CBs but there are plenty of options on defensive line and they need a lot of help there.

18. Seattle Seahawks (10-7): Connor Williams OT Texas

The Seahawks need to fix their offensive line and while the interior seems to be the biggest issue, RT Abe Lucas hasn’t stayed healthy much in his career and they could use a option to replace him. Williams is a RT only type of player if he stays outside. He’s 6’5 335 lbs. and is just a massive man. He can handle the RT spot and on the off-chance Lucas gets healthy and can actually play RT, Williams could slide inside. He’s not the most refined player, he doesn’t even have a full season of starting experience in college but you can’t teach a guy to be the size and have the power and athleticism Williams possesses. He upgrades the Seahawks line just by showing up and they can use all the help they can get. This shouldn’t be the only offensive lineman they draft in this draft.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7): Mike Green Edge Marshall

There’s often that one guy in round one that makes everyone ask, WHO? Mike Green can be that guy. He’s a highly productive edge rusher from Marshall who is a redshirt sophomore that not a lot of people have heard of. Also, his name is Mike Green so even if you heard someone mention him, it’s such a non-descript name that you probably wouldn’t remember it. He’s a bit undersized but if he plays OLB in a 3-4 that won’t be a problem and that’s exactly where the Bucs need help. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has never been able to put it together and he’s about to be a free agent. They signed Shaq Barrett late in the year out of desperation and he didn’t do anything and Anthony Nelson is also a free agent. They need help and Green may not be the biggest name but he’s a great fit for their defense and he’ll be a good pass rusher for a team that needs one.

20. Denver Broncos (10-7): Tyler Warren TE Penn St.

There have been a lot of names thrown out there for coach of the year but Sean Payton isn’t getting enough love. I’ve never liked the Broncos but you have to give Payton credit, he’s a great coach. Last year everyone thought the Brocos would take Brock Bowers but Payton took a chance and took Bo Nix to be his QB, that worked out as well as anyone could reasonably expect. Now, Payton gets the TE he wants for his offense and Tyler Warren might actually be the upgraded version of Tysom Hill. Warren can line up at QB, he did it at Penn St. He’s an excellent pass catcher and he can block. If Payton designs some short-yardage running plays for Warren, he’ll be good at that too. He gives Nix another weapon in the passing game and he’ll be a reliable target over the middle. There is no downside to taking Warren, maybe he never becomes the high-volume target guy Bowers is but that’s a pretty high bar to clear.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio St.

The Steelers WR corps was abysmal this last season. Even the human-highlight reel that George Pickens is was underwhelming. Pickens had 59 catches, was under 1000 yards and only had 3 TDs and managed to be a major pain in the ass for the team all season. The Steelers may be over dealing with Pickens’ attitude and could look to trade him. Roman Wilson had a lost season after they had high hopes for the rookie this last year so they need someone reliable. There is no one more reliable than Egbuka. He’s the anti-Pickens. Runs routes like a machine, catches everything, shows up to work and puts in the time. Whoever plays QB for the Steelers next season will love Egbuka. He works exceptionally well out of the slot but he can move outside and get deep when needed. He’s not the explosive playmaker Luther Burden III can be but he’s more reliable when you need to move the chains.

22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6): Shavon Revel Jr. CB East Carolina

Someone has to take a chance on one of the injured CBs who would otherwise be first round locks and the Chargers seem like a solid bet to do so. Both Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton, the two starting outside CBs for the Chargers are set to hit free agency. Revel tore his ACL in September and while that’s never a good thing, the fact it happened in September and seems to be a pretty straight forward ACL repair, he gets the nod over Benjamin Morrison. Morrison suffered a hip injury in October and underwent surgery, that does not make me feel good about a CB prospect. Revel is 6’3 193 lbs., he’s long and wiry but he’s a very tough cover guy and Jim Harbaugh will like him a lot. If by for some reason, Will Johnson falls out of the top 10 and the Chargers could make move up to get him, I think Harbaugh would sign off on that move. Here he settles for Revel and his upside.

23. Green Bay Packers (11-6): Jihaad Campbell LB Alabama

The Packers may need to look at CB if they cut Jaire Alexander and let Eric Stokes walk in free agency, the only problem is the next best CB is Benajamin Morrison and I’m not comfortable with his hip injury. The other problem they may address is LB where Quay Walker hasn’t lived up to his first-round pick status and Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson are free agents. Edgerrin Cooper looks like a good pickup in last year’s draft but he could use some help. Campbell is the best pure off ball LB in the draft and he had a very good season at Alabama. He’s not a guy you’ll hear a lot about because LBs don’t get talked up in the pre-draft process unless they are pass rushers, he’s not that. He will crush it as a MLB and he’s the kind of guy who will raise the play of his teammates. Having Campbell to do the dirty work could open up opportunities for Cooper.

24. Minnesota Vikings (14-3): Shemar Stewart DE Texas A&M

I really want to give the Vikings Kaleb Johnson, the RB from Iowa, but I just can’t do it here. He’s a great fit and Aaron Jones is a 31-year-old free agent so Johnson fills a huge hole. I’m also punting on a CB again here because there is no guarantee on Morrison. DEs Jonathan Bullard and Jerry Tillery are free agents and this team needs some youth up front. Stewart is 6’6 290 lbs. and can be the type of power player on the end that helps Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkle, and Dallas Turner as the pass rushers from the OLB spots. Stewart is the type of player who won’t get a lot of stats or credit but will be a big part of the defense moving forward because he makes the other guys’ jobs easier.

25. Houston Texans (10-7): Josh Simmons OT Ohio St.

This feels low for Simmons but I’m still not sure about his knee injury so he falls a bit. The Texans have to fix the offensive line. For all the trouble their offense had this year, almost all of it can be traced to the offensive line struggles. Last year they had a number of injuries and the line still played fine, that was not the case this year. Simmons is a LT but Laremy Tunsil is still good there so Simmons can slide to the right side. He can also be an eventual replacement for Tunsil too. The RT spot was a problem and they tried a number of options, none of them stuck. Blake Fisher was holding down the spot to end the year and with Simmons around they can move him to OG to fix one of the interior spots. That would upgrade two positions with one move, always a good idea.

26. Los Angeles Rams (10-7): Josh Conerly Jr. OT Oregon

Offensive tackles get pushed up the board sometimes because of the need teams have for them. Conerly is a borderline first round player to some but the Rams may need a new LT if they don’t want to pay Alaric Jackson in free agency. Even if they bring Jackson back, RT Rob Havenstein is going to be 33, another OT isn’t a bad idea. Conerly isn’t the biggest OT at 6’4 but he played quite well all season for Oregon. He has starting ability for an NFL team. This team has gone with Jackson for a number of years and he was a late round pick who needed to develop, Sean McVay isn’t afraid to let an OT learn a little on the job.

27. Baltimore Ravens (12-5): Armand Membou OT Missouri

If on the off chance the Ravens lose LT Ronnie Stanley in free agency, they could potentially look to move up to get one but if not Membou isn’t a bad option for them. He’s probably not a LT but they drafted Roger Rosengarten last year and perhaps he moves to LT where his lack of power wouldn’t be as big of an issue. Membou is a smaller OT so he could move to guard if need be. Membou is a solid RT with some size concerns from a height and length perspective but he has plenty of power for the RT spot. Baltimore also likes to stick to the board and Membou would be a value pick here, he’s a starting RT in the NFL next year.

28. Detroit Lions (15-2): Nic Scourton DE Texas A&M

The Lions have failed to find an adequate partner for Aidan Hutchinson as a pass rusher and this season was no different. They signed Marcus Davenport and he was playing pretty well until he got hurt, that was foreseeable. Hutchinson also got hurt and never made it back before the team go bounced in the playoffs. He was off to an awesome start and if they get him some edge help he’ll be even better. Scourton put up better numbers last year at Purdue before he transferred to Texas A&M. That’s the guy they need him to be to take some pressure off of Hutchinson by bringing pressure off the other side. There will be a lot of coaching changes for the Lions next season and they need to give their new defensive staff more to work with up front. Scourton is a big, physical DE who would complement the rest of the defensive line quite well.

29. Washington Commanders (12-5): Colston Loveland TE Michigan

The Commanders played beyond all expectations this year as they have made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game in Dan Quinn’s first year as head coach and Jayden Daniels rookie season. Quinn, along with OC Kliff Kingsbury and DC Joe Whitt Jr. have gotten more out of this roster than anyone expected and they don’t have a lot of free agents they could lose so it’s full steam ahead. The offensive line could use some upgrades but Daniels made it work with the guys he has. The secondary could use some CB help but if Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sanristil keep playing the way they have, it’s not a dire need. At this point, taking the best talent is a good idea. Colston Loveland is an excellent TE and while Zach Ertz became one of Daniels’ favorite targets, Ertz will be 35 next year so Loveland would be a good investment in giving Daniels a great pass catching TE into the future.

30. Buffalo Bills (13-4): Benjamin Morrison CB Notre Dame

Morrison had a hip injury that ended his season early. Where the medical reports come in on that injury will determine Morrison’s eventual place in this draft. If he’s completely healed and there are no lingering issues, he could be a top 20 pick. He’s one of the best CB prospects in this draft without the injury but it’s a gamble. The Bills need secondary help, especially at CB where they’re pretty thin. If Morrison is healthy to start next season, he could push to be a starter in Buffalo. Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas have done a solid job but Morrison is a real talent that would be hard to keep off the field.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3): Princely Umanmielen Edge Ole Miss

Howie Roseman likes to take linemen early in the draft, that’s been a constant for him. This team is going to have needs at pass rusher given the free agents they have. Brandon Graham said before his injury that he was going to retire, even if he changes his mind, he’s a soon to be 37-year-old guy coming off an injury they would have to re-sign. Josh Sweat is also a free agent and so is Zach Baun. Baun was their awesome free agent signing from last season they weren’t expecting to be awesome. It also doesn’t help the pass rushing situation that Bryce Huff, the big free agent they signed last season, was a total bust. Umanmielen isn’t the biggest player but he’s a terror off the edge. He would give them another guy opposite Nolan Smith who can get to the QB for Vic Fanigo’s defense.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2): Marcus Mbow OT Purdue

The Chiefs’ biggest issues are at the OT positions. At LT they tried rookie Kingsley Suamataia, Wayna Morris, and DJ Humphries before finally moving LG Joe Thuney to the position after he has played his entire career inside. Thuney was the best of the bunch. RT Jawaan Taylor hasn’t been good either but his issues are more procedural than anything. Taking another shot on a rookie is questionable but probably necessary unless they find some hidden money to sign a free agent. I would advise them to move up if guy like Josh Simmons starts to fall a bit but if not, Mbow is a worth a shot. He’s not the biggest guy but he can hold his own. If nothing else, he gives them more options and they can let Morris go and maybe move Suamataia to RT or inside.

2025 Hawkeye Worries

I’m officially worried about the Iowa Hawkeye football program. I feel like I’ve seen this before. I came to Iowa as a freshman in the fall of 1997 with an Iowa football team that had some exciting players on it and ended that season a disappointing 7-5. This year’s version of the Hawkeyes feels a bit similar with the way things are going. Kaleb Johnson was the offense and he was excellent. While a lot of people compared him to Shonn Greene, there are more similarities to 1997’s Tavian Banks. Banks was a superstar that season, he was big play waiting to happen and he carried Iowa’s offense. The Hawkeyes also had one of the most electrifying returners in college football, Tim Dwight. Punt to him at your own risk. Dwight was supposed to be a big part of the offense but was largely a decoy and wasn’t nearly as important to the offense as Banks. Kaden Wetjen isn’t Tim Dwight on offense, but he is a scary returner if you’re the opposing team. Wetjen isn’t anything more than a gadget player on offense, Dwight was more than that for sure but the Iowa passing game wasn’t exactly exciting. The ’97 Hawkeyes also had WR Damon Gibson, a good player. The ’24 Hawkeyes have Jacob Gill, a good player. There were some young, talented WRs in ’97, Kevin Kasper and Tony Collins. In 2024 we have Jarriett Buie, Reese Vander Zee, and Dayton Howard. Any of those guys could become Kevin Kasper and have a great Hawkeye career, or they could become Collins, a guy who looked great early and just never put it all together. The offensive line had some good upperclassmen in Mike Goff and Jeremy McKinney and guys like Derek Rose and Chad Deal were solid. The 2024 line has been pretty good and has some upperclassmen playing good football, Mason Richman, Connor Colby, and Logan Jones.

The QB situation is more like 1996 when Matt Sherman was starting but everyone wanted to see Ryan Driscoll and what he could do. The backup QB being the fan favorite is a tale as old as football. Cade McNamara wishes he was Matt Sherman, and unfortunately, I don’t think Brendan Sullivan is Driscoll or Sherman. Once again, an Iowa season is undone by a lack of talent at QB. McNamara was never the guy he once was at Michigan, you can blame the injuries, you can blame the supporting cast, or you can blame the offensive scheme, but McNamara just wasn’t the same player. Sullivan is what he is, he’s nice change-of-pace QB who should be used in certain packages, he’s not the full-time starter.

In 1998 Matt Sherman had graduated and the Hawkeyes had a three-way competition at QB between Kyle McCann, a freshman, and the two returning guys from the depth chart, Randy Reiners and Scott Mullen. They would eventually all play at some point over the next couple of seasons but they just weren’t good enough. Brendan Sullivan’s play in the Music City Bowl showed his limitations. Iowa needs a better passing QB next season because it’s going to be tougher when Kaleb Johnson is in the NFL. No disrespect to Jaziun Patterson, Kamari Moulton, and the other young backs at Iowa, I really like the talent, but expecting any of them to be Johnson next year is insane. The passing game has to be better and the Music City Bowl confirmed that it won’t be if Sullivan is running the offense.

The good news in 2024 is the Hawkeyes have something the 1998 Hawkeyes didn’t have, the transfer portal. You can hate the portal but if used correctly it can change your entire outlook for next season. There are three things that can hurt Iowa when looking for a QB in the portal. The first one is, QBs are expensive and while Iowa’s collective has money, they aren’t ever going to compete at the top of the market. The second issue is the reputation of Iowa’s offense, it’s bad and while I think Tim Lester has done a good job changing the scheme, you have to show players it works before they will believe you. That’s hard to do with the QB’s Iowa has had lately. The third thing that could be a problem is Kirk Ferentz’s loyalty to the guys already on his team. Iowa didn’t get a lot of looks last season from QBs in the portal because Ferentz’s insistence that McNamara was the starting QB regardless of the fact, he had only played four games the previous season and wasn’t all that great in those games. If QBs thought they would have a chance to compete for the starting job, perhaps Iowa gets a QB transfer at semester instead of having to wait for Sullivan. He didn’t transfer until the summer after not winning the QB job at Northwestern. Ferentz needs to stay out of the way this time, let Tim Lester find a QB he likes and get a guy at semester who can beat out the competition for the starting job. If Sullivan doesn’t like that, he can move on and Iowa can move on with a new transfer QB and Hank Brown, the developmental guy they already got to replace Marco Lainez. If they don’t get another transfer QB, then every Iowa fan better hope Hank Brown can beat out Brendan Sullivan to be the starter because the Music City Bowl was not a good look for Sullivan. He simply isn’t the passer you need to run an offense effectively. His reads are too slow, he’s not decisive in his throws, and he lacks the quick trigger it takes to run Tim Lester’s offense.

Now, let’s look at why I’m even more worried we are looking at a Hayden Fry 1998-like drop off for the Iowa program. This roster has enjoyed some stability because of the extra Covid year granted to so many players. That is about to run out for almost everyone and it’s going to hit Iowa hard, especially the defense. The defense was the reason Iowa lost two of its games this season, Michigan St. and UCLA. They also struggled against Missouri in the bowl game. The defense got destroyed against MSU and UCLA and that’s not a good sign. The bigger issue is losing so much talent and experience from this team. DE Deontae Craig, DT Yahya Black, LB Nick Jackson, LB Jay Higgins, LB Kyler Fisher, FS Quinn Schulte, CB Jermari Harris, and CASH Sebastian Castro, will all be gone next season. That’s a major mountain to climb. The top DE, the top DT, all three starting LBs, the top CB, and your best and most versatile defender, Castro. I usually give Phil Parker the benefit of the doubt, but that’s a whole lot of production to replace with guys who haven’t played much at all. If the defense falls off to a level closer to the Michigan St/UCLA game defense, Iowa is in trouble, and offense would have to be astronomically better to make up the difference.

On offense, they will have a stable of RBs to work with (Patterson and Moulton, plus Terrell Washington Jr, Xavier Williams, and Brevin Doll). Jacob Gill can be a solid WR (the terrible drop against Missouri not withstanding). Reece Vander Zee has loads of potential and Jarriett Buie and Dayton Howard still have promise. We can hope Seth Anderson gets healthy but that feels like the hope you get when you buy a lottery ticket, deep down you know it’s not going your way. Iowa is always good at TE and they still will be with Addison Ostrenga, Zach Ortwerth, and some freshmen coming up. The offensive line got a boost with C Logan Jones returning for another year. Jones and RT Gennings Dunker are a good place to start and if LG Beau Stephens can stay healthy, that’s three returning starters. Kade Pieper should step into Connor Colby’s RG spot and he’s played snaps since he was a true freshman two years ago. When the coaches use a true freshman on the offensive line, it means they see some real talent. The team struck out on the LT from Rice the were hoping to get in the portal but Trevor Lauck should be ready to step in after he ascended to be the backup LT this season. He’s a young guy and doesn’t have playing experience at LT but he was a highly rated recruit coming out of high school and the coaches need to hit on someone at LT or this team will suffer.

Hayden Fry was in his 19^th season at Iowa in 1997 and it was clear the end was near. Kirk Ferentz is in year 26 and it’s not so clear when the end is coming but it should be sooner than you think if things go the way they could. In 1998 the bottom dropped out for Hayden and Hawkeyes won 3 games. Fry walked away and Iowa hired Ferentz after they botched the Bob Stoops thing. In 2025, if the Hawkeyes don’t find a QB they can count on, they could be facing a similar fate. Are we in for a slow steady decline to the end of the Ferentz era or is next season the cliff? Next year’s schedule has Oregon and Penn St., two of the better teams in the conference. The four rivalry games; Iowa St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska, three of those on the road, and none of those are ever easy. Indiana might not be as good as they were this year but they won’t be a cupcake. The Hawkeyes get Michigan St. at Kinnick but they beat the Hawks last season in Jonathan Smith’s first year, something tells me they might be better in his second year. That leaves road game at USC and at Rutgers, not exactly guaranteed wins. It’s a good thing Iowa plays Albany and UMass.

The good news is there are still some good QBs in the portal like South Dakota St.’s Mark Gronowski. The bad news is Iowa isn’t the only team looking for a starting QB and other schools have more to sell a QB on. There will be more in the portal but are they upgrades over Sullivan or Hank Brown? That’s hard to say. Iowa Hawkeye football may be at a crossroads and I’m not sure it’s clear on the direction it’s heading. Kirk Ferentz isn’t getting fired this off season, his contract is simply too prohibitive for that to happen. (Thanks again for that Gary Barta.) An 8-4 season and another trip to the Music City Bowl feels way too optimistic for the 2025 Iowa Hawkeyes, even 7-5 feels pretty tough at the moment. If the bottom falls out on a 70 year old Kirk Ferentz, does Beth Goetz have the ability to push Kirk into retirement for the overall health of the program? Would a 3-9 regular season be enough to raise the money to buyout his contract? Can Kirk Ferentz and Tim Lester work magic in the portal late in process and pull a rabbit out of the hat to save the QB position and the 2025 season? Can Phil Parker work a miracle to replace about 8 starters on his defense and revamp the unit that let the team down multiple times this season? There are a lot of questions to be answered in 2025 for Iowa Hawkeyes. Happy New Year…we hope.

2024 NFL Predictions and Hott Reads

MVP Award

Favorites: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Josh Allen, QB CJ Stroud, QB Joe Burrow, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Tyreek Hill

Dark horses: QB Matt Stafford and QB Jordan Love

We all know this award is really a QB award so I’m just including McCaffrey and Hill because they are the only two other players who could reasonably win it. Defensive players never get this award so I’m not going there. Lamar Jackson won it last year so the bar is probably too high for him to win it again. Mahomes is always a good choice because he’s the best player in the league and this year they actually got him some WR help. Stroud is the new shiny object and he should have the stats to back up a run at the award. Joe Burrow could also make a run at the award if he returns to form and leads the Bengals back to the playoffs. I think Stafford is in for a monster year as he tries to keep the Rams competitive without a great defense. Love keeps the Packers right on the Lions heels all season long. If a long playoff run counted towards MVP votes he could win but the voting happens at the end of the regular season so getting the Packers deep into the playoffs doesn’t help his case.

My Pick: QB Josh Allen

It seems strange considering he lost his best WR in Stefon Diggs but I think that will work in his favor. A lot of people are picking the Bills to fall off this season and if Allen plays to his usual level, he can elevate this team. He makes them better than they should be and wins the AFC East again. He may finally get his due.

Offensive Player of the Year

Favorites: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Tyreek Hill, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB Breece Hall, RB Bijan Robinson, RB Saquon Barkley

Dark horse: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

This award usually goes to the best non-QB offensive player so McCaffrey and Hill should lead the pack. CeeDee Lamb is going to get peppered with targets in Dallas as they have no one else to count on. Amon-Ra St. Brown should finally get his recognition for being an elite WR. Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are going to be work horse RBs for their teams and they are extremely talented. Barkley is going to go from running behind one of the worst offensive lines ever to one the best in the league. Harrison is that good. People are simply not recognizing he could be a top 5 WR in the league this year.

My Pick: WR Tyreek Hill

He’s still the most dangerous WR in the league and while he fell off a bit at the end of last season, I think he can hold on this year.

Defensive Player of the Year

Favorites: DE Myles Garrett, DE Nick Bosa, OLB TJ Watt, OLB Micah Parsons, DE Danielle Hunter, DE Maxx Crosby

Dark horse: S Kyle Hamilton

This award has recently been dominated by the guys leading the league in sacks. Myles Garrett is the reigning DPOY and he’s not a bad bet to be that again. Bosa won it before him so don’t count him out. Watt is due to win one of these as he’s always near the top of the sack list. Parsons has a chance to be a 20-sack guy if things go right so don’t count him out. Danielle Hunter has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL for awhile and now he plays for a team that should be a Super Bowl contender, he should get noticed now. Maxx Crosby is one of the most under appreciated players in the league, he’s an elite pass rusher on a terrible defense. Kyle Hamilton could be the one guy who breaks through the pass rusher gauntlet to win this thing. He’s one of the most diverse and dynamic defenders in the NFL.

My Pick: OLB TJ Watt

I think Watt finally breaks through. He’s an elite pass rusher with name recognition and if he gets 18 or more sacks this year, he gets his turn with the award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Favorites: QB Caleb William, QB Jayden Daniels, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Malik Nabers, WR Rome Odunze, TE Brock Bowers

Dark horses: WR Keon Coleman, WR Jalen McMillan

There aren’t any rookie RBs to really consider here since Jonathan Brooks isn’t even playing yet and Trey Benson is starting out backing up James Connor. TE Brock Bowers is a true talent but rookie TEs can struggle, TEs don’t win a lot of awards, Bowers is on a bad team, and his QB isn’t great. Caleb Williams should have an excellent year but he may not get as much credit because of how good the offense will be around him. Daniels is going to put up some crazy stats but the Commanders won’t be good enough for him to get real consideration. Nabers will have some highlights but Daniel Jones is his QB, don’t ask too much from him. Odunze is a real talent but DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are going to eat into his production. It’s Harrison’s award to lose. He’s the WR1 on a team with a legitimate QB and he’s going to feast on targets. Coleman might become a favorite target of Josh Allen, that’s good for him. McMillan is a stud but he has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin ahead of him in the pecking order. He’s going to catch plenty of passes but may not have the highlights to get the attention.

My Pick: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

I’m not stupid, I’m not picking against the best WR prospect since Julio Jones. Harrison is a freak and he’s going to catch 100 passes for Arizona.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Favorites: DE Laiatu Latu, DT Byron Murphy II, CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB Terrion Arnold, DE Jared Verse, OLB Dallas Turner

Dark horse: DB Cooper DeJean

Latu, Verse, and Turner should be solid pass rushers who will really play an important role for each of their respective teams. Latu is probably the best outside pass rusher on the Colts. Verse will be an important piece of the Rams plan to replace Aaron Donald’s production. And Turner is the perfect player for Brian Flores’ defense in Minnesota. Byron Murphy II isn’t a starter just yet in Seattle but Mike Macdonald won’t forget to use him. Quinyon Mitchell has a chance to play a lot in Philly and might get thrown at a lot with Darius Slay opposite him. Arnold will get the same treatment as a rookie opposite Carlton Davis III in Detroit. DeJean got a late start in camp with an injury but he’s going to play all over the backend of the Eagles defense and Vic Fangio will find ways to use him eventually.

My Pick: CB Quinyon Mitchell

I’ve been a fan of this guy since last year when he was at Toledo. The game isn’t too big for him even though he’s taking a major step up in competition. He’s already the starting CB2 in Philly and I think he’ll be better than Darius Slay sooner rather than later.

NFL Playoff Predictions

NFC Division Winners

Philadelphia

Detroit

Atlanta

San Francisco

Wildcards

Green Bay

LA Rams

Chicago

AFC Division Winners

Kansas City

Buffalo

Cincinnati

Houston

Wildcards

Baltimore

NY Jets

Cleveland

NFC Championship Game

Detroit vs Green Bay

AFC Championship Game

Kansas City vs Houston

Super Bowl

Kansas City vs. Detroit

Super Bowl Champion

Kansas City-I’m not betting against this team until someone proves they can beat Mahomes in the playoffs. A three-peat has never happened in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes and Reid pull it off.

Hott Reads and Random Thoughts

Quarterback Reads

The Patriots are starting the season with Jacoby Brissett at QB and most people think Drake Maye will take over around week 5. The first four weeks are very tough. I don’t think Brissett lasts that long behind the Patriots terrible offensive line. I think Maye starts week 3 against the Jets. Not an ideal opponent to start a rookie, the Jets defense is really good. I think they have to play Maye by then. Baptism by fire. Good luck Drake.

The Saints start the season against the Panthers and then have five tough games in a row: Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, and Bucs. If they start 1-5 I think they go to Spencer Rattler at QB for week seven against the Broncos at home. Although, if they lose to the Panthers week 1, it may happen sooner. I have no faith in Derek Carr.

Russell Wilson is questionable for Week 1 of the season. If Justin Fields leads the Steelers to a victory over Atlanta, we may never see Wilson start in Pittsburgh.

Kirk Cousins starts all season for the Falcons, they win the division and lose the first week of the playoffs. Then the Falcons trade him next off season to either the Giants or Raiders unless one of them signs Dak Prescott. Then they trade him to Dallas instead.

Jayden Daniels has an excellent fantasy season for the Commanders and then gets hurt in Week 11 and ruins my chances of winning my fantasy league. (REVERSE JINX, REVERSE JINX!)

The Bryce Young rehabilitation season doesn’t go so well and the Panthers are looking for a QB next season. David Tepper offers Dak Prescott $800 million and Dak says no thank you, he prefers not to be irrelevant.

Random Player Thoughts

Quick prediction. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing this season. His talent behind the Jeff Stoutland coached offensive line, that’s a scary combination. Hurts will vulture some of his TDs but Saquon wins the yardage title. (I swear I wrote this before his awesome opening game in Brazil, he’s just so talented)

S Kyle Hamilton has a breakout season in Baltimore, even more than his great year last year. He finishes top three in Defensive Player of the Year voting. He’s that good.

CB Derek Stingley stays healthy all year in Houston and takes his place as one of the three best CBs in football with Sauce Gardner and Patrick Surtain II. Christian Gonzalez is probably a year away from making it a true top 4.

Trade Reads

The Cowboys realize Ezekiel Elliott was cooked three years ago and Rico Dowdle is just a fun name but not a starting RB. They scour the league and here’s my list of guys they should consider (I can’t believe they haven’t traded for one of these guys already).

Dameon Pierce (Texans) – he’s buried behind Joe Mixon and he’s a good young RB that the Texans clearly have given up on.

D’Onta Foreman (Browns) – They are just holding on to him until Nick Chubb is back, he’s a solid veteran addition.

Khalil Herbert (Bears) – The Bears signed D’Andre Swift and they have Rochon Johnson, free Herbert already.

Miles Sanders (Panthers) – As soon as Jonathan Brooks is back it’s Brooks and Chuba Hubbard, Sanders is superfluous. He’s not very good but he’s better than the rest of the Cowboys guys.

Tradeable players at some point

CB Jonathan Jones (Patriots) – He’s 31, in the last year of his contract, and he’s a starting CB who can play inside or out. The Patriots like their young CBs so trade him for a draft pick and let him go win something in San Francisco or Buffalo.

CB Marshon Lattimore (Saints) – I have no idea of the cap implications of trading a guy with the money the Saints have kicked into future years but if the Broncos can cut Russell Wilson and take an $80 million dead cap hit, anything is possible. The Saints need to face reality, it’s time to rebuild. When they’re 1-5 and starting Spencer Rattler at QB they may finally figure it out. Lattimore still has value, get some draft capital for him and move on to the younger guys.

DE Chase Young (Saints) – If he has 4 or 5 sacks by week 6, cash him in. The Saints only gave him a one-year deal, get a draft pick from a team looking for a pass rusher for the playoff run. It’s like when a bad baseball team signs a really good bullpen arm and then trades him for prospects at the deadline because they have no use for him by the end of July.

DT Jonathan Allen (Commanders) – He’s too good to languish in Washington and they have Jer’Zhan Newton waiting in the wings. The rebuild is on, get some draft picks to get younger.

WR Courtland Sutton (Broncos) – Sutton is a deep ball, down the field guy, that isn’t Bo Nix’s game. The Steelers, Cowboys, Falcons, Browns, and Jets are all playoff caliber teams who could use him.

WR Devante Adams (Raiders) – He’s going to get really unhappy in Vegas. Aaron Rodgers would give you all of the Jets draft picks next year to have him once Mike Williams gets hurt and Allen Lazard is the second best WR on his team.

LT Walker Little (Jaguars) – The Patriots will give you Bill Belichick as your coach next year if you trade them Walker Little. Please. Pretty Please. (I know Belichick isn’t a tradeable asset, it was a joke).

Coaching Reads

On that note. Jacksonville misses the playoffs, Doug Peterson and GM Trent Baalke get fired and Shad Khan offers Belichick a boatload of money to come take over in Jacksonville. I’ve made this prediction before. For Trevor Lawrence’s sake I hope Belichick’s year off doing 18 different football shows, seriously, you’ll be sick of him by the end of the year, he’s everywhere. I hope Belichick realizes there are some really good young offensive and defensive minds in football and he hires some new coordinators instead of Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia.

I think Dennis Allen is the first coach fired. Should be right around the time they go to Spencer Rattler at QB. Senior Offensive Assistant Rick Dennison has been around a really long time and has connections to Gary Kubiak throughout the years and has worked with Klint Kubiak. Defensive Coordinator Joe Woods has been a long-time NFL assistant, either of those guys can be the interim coach.

Lincoln Riley goes 8-4 or 9-3 at USC this year, his offense looks really good and some dumb owner gives him a bunch of money to come to the NFL. Speaking of Mark Davis, he fires Antonio Pierce after one year as the full-time coach and gives Lincoln Riley a bunch of money. He has the patience of his father and is even worse at hiring coaches. Riley takes the payday and gets out of Los Angeles because the USC faithful get restless, they think they are better than 8-9 wins a year (in the Big Ten, they aren’t).

Let’s get the show on the road people. First full day of the NFL season is TOMORROW!! Enjoy!

2024 NFC South Preview

The Falcons are all in on this season. They gave Kirk Cousins a ton of money, they traded for Matt Judon during camp, and they signed Justin Simmons on that same day. We will see if all the skill position talent they drafted over the last few years is actually good, there are no QB excuses now. Tampa Bay won this division and returns most of their team, the biggest loss might be OC Dave Canales who’s running the Panthers now. He really helped Baker Mayfield last year. The Saints are an enigma, Derek Carr was mess last year and the o-line is pretty rough. They have a new OC coming from the Shanahan tree, can Klint Kubiak get their line to be good and make Carr not awful? The Panthers just want to see if Bryce Young is salvageable, everything else is pointless until they answer that question.

Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins signed a huge contract and the team drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in the draft, there are no more excuses at QB. This offense has firepower that most teams should envy, it’s up to new OC Zac Robinson to put them in a position to succeed. The biggest beneficiaries of the new coaching staff should be the three former top draft picks; WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson, and TE Kyle Pitts. All three were underutilized by former coach Arthur Smith, Robinson needs to do better. Bijan Robinson is one of the most gifted RBs in the league and yet Smith seemed to like Tyler Allgeier better. No offense to Allgeier but there isn’t anything Robinson isn’t capable of at RB, he needs the ball more. The offensive line also has plenty of talent. They aren’t a bunch of All-Pros but LT Jake Matthews, LG Matt Bergeron, C Drew Dalman, and RT Kaleb McGary are all very good. RG Chris Lindstrom is the one guy who might be an All-Pro talent.

WR Drake London won’t be ignored anymore. He’s a true talent who can play inside and outside and use his size to his advantage either place. If he’s used well, he could be a top-level WR in the NFL. They signed Darnell Mooney to be the WR2 and he’s an upgrade over what they had before but he’s just okay, not great. They don’t have good depth at WR so they need TE Kyle Pitts to play like he did as a rookie. He was misused like the others but he has otherworldly talent and athleticism. If he’s used right, he can turn his career around, he’ll only turn 24 this year.

The defense will be under the direction of new head coach Raheem Morris and DC Jimmy Lake. They did a good job with an undermanned unit with the Rams last season and this team has some talent to work with. There are two veterans up front with Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata and Zach Harrison is young guy with potential. They made the splashy trade for Matt Judon because they lacked any true pass rusher and Judon is definitely a real player. Lorenzo Carter and Arnold Ebiketie aren’t great but they should benefit from Judon’s presence. Kaden Ellis and Troy Anderson aren’t great ILBs but they can hold their own.

The secondary got a major upgrade at safety with the signing of Justin Simmons. He should pair with Jessie Bates to really improve the defense up the middle. Bates was really good last season and while Simmons is getting older, he’s still a good player. Outside at CB AJ Terrell is a legitimate CB1 it’s the other outside spot that could be problematic. Mike Hughes, Clark Phillips III, and Antonio Hamilton give them options but it’s not a great group.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This team won this division last year and if things don’t go right in Atlanta the Bucs will be right on their heels to take it again. Baker Mayfield had a good year and got a nice contract in Tampa Bay after bouncing around a bit. He’s not an elite QB but he knows how to use the playmakers on this team to make his life easier. WR Mike Evans is an absolute machine. He was excellent last year and while he’s getting older, he doesn’t show signs of slowing down. Chris Godwin has been his partner in crime for years now and they are a dynamic duo. That duo might become a trio with rookie Jalen McMillan coming in and taking a starting spot immediately. He’s a true talent and he’s been showing that all throughout camp. McMillan can be major part of this offense.

The offensive line is led by LT Tristan Wirfs who got a big contract extension this off season. He’s an elite player and that’s a guy they can build around. They needed to get better in the interior and they drafted Graham Barton and he steps in as an immediate upgrade at center. He’s got size and power they need to improve. RT Luke Goedeke was solid last year. The two guard spots must be better or the running game will suffer. RB Rachaad White was excellent as a pass catcher last year but he’s not a great runner at this point. The line didn’t help him out but he’s an average talent as a runner. They only drafted Bucky Irving in round four so there isn’t any real help coming.

The defense feels like there could be some trouble. They need some of their disappointing young players to really step up this year or things could go poorly. DT Vita Vea isn’t the dominate force he once was, he’s 29 and his years of wear and tear could be catching up to him. DE Logan Hall was once a second-round pick and DE Calijah Kancey was a first rounder last year, these two need to be better. OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is another first round pick who hasn’t lived up to that and this is his last chance because there is no one standing in his way for playing time. Yaya Diaby was a third-round pick last year who has outplayed him and will start opposite him.

ILBs Lavonta David and KJ Britt return. David is an all-time great Buccaneer but he’s 34 and well past his prime. Britt stepped in for Devin White when he was struggling last year but he’s a limited player. The secondary has Antoine Winfield Jr. and he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL but there are questions all around him. The team traded Carlton Davis III to Detroit and now they are counting on Zyon McCollum becoming a starter opposite Jamel Dean and Dean stepping into the CB1 spot. That’s tough and that means rookie Tykee Smith will be the nickel corner. He was a good player in college but he wasn’t a pure nickel player. Jordan Whitehead returns at safety after a middling year with the Jets. Todd Bowles has always been a great defensive mind but he might run out of magic with this group.

New Orleans Saints

There were six QBs taken in round one of the draft and none of them will get half the ovation from their own crowd in their first action than the seventh guy. Spencer Rattler was a fifth rounder but if he replaces Derek Carr at any point, the Saints faithful will rejoice. Perhaps Klink Kubiak can bring some of that Shanahan QB magic with him but if there is one QB who can resist the magic, it’s Carr. The offense needs Carr to be serviceable to function and even then, there will be challenges. The offensive line has issues all over. LT will be rookie Taliese Fuaga, some weren’t sure he was even an OT in this class. RT will be Trevor Penning who was so bad at LT last season he got benched. The interior will have C Eric McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz, they have been good before but they weren’t last year. LG is Lucas Patrick, the guy who couldn’t crack the Bears’ line last season. It’s a problem.

RB Alvin Kamara is still an excellent player and while he’s not as dynamic as he used to be, he’s still good. They should look to use Jamaal Williams more. WR Chris Olave is also a great player but he relies more on a good QB play so he’s limited on this team. WR Rashid Shahid is a good young player who also needs more consistent QB play. TE has Juwan Johnson who’s a good pass catcher and Taysom Hill is still around to screw up fantasy leagues.

Dennis Allen hasn’t been great as a head coach but he’s always been an excellent defensive coach. The Saints’ defense wasn’t good before he arrived and he turned them around very quickly. The defensive line is still counting on DE Cameron Jordan who is 35 and really fell off last season with only two sacks. The other end spot is Carl Granderson who had a solid year but he’s not elite. They signed Chase Young, hoping to hit on guy who hasn’t lived up to his draft billing to this point. DT Nathan Sheppard and Khalen Saunders are solid vets but they need Bryan Bresee to take over and become a real player inside.

The LBs are also led by an aging veteran in MLB Demario Davis, the difference is, even at 35, Davis is still getting it done. He’s flanked by Pete Werner, a solid starter, and free agent signee Willie Gay, who was pretty good in Kansas City for the last few years. The secondary is good at CB with Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, Alontae Taylor, and rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry. That’s a good group even if Lattimore isn’t as great as he once was. Adebo and Taylor are solid pros and McKinstry has a lot of potential. Tyrann Mathieu is a good veteran safety but they are a little short opposite him and that could be a problem.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were a disaster last year and fired Frank Reich less than a year into his contract. Now they try to reset with the guy who helped Geno Smith become a good QB in Seattle and who resurrected the corpse of Baker Mayfield in Tampa. Dave Canales has a history with broken QBs and now he gets the mother of all reclamation projects; former #1 overall pick Bryce Young. Young was terrible last year and every fear about his physical limitations came to fruition. It didn’t help that his offensive line was abysmal and his WR group was a joke. The running game wasn’t anything to write home about either. They addressed the problem of the interior of the line hoping to help keep Bryce Young clean and hopefully help the running game. They spent big on guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt and they are shifting Austin Corbett to center. They hope stabilizing the interior will help LT Ikem Ekwonu and RT Taylor Moton be better.

They have also moved to help Young with more talent at the skill positions. Last year WR Adam Thielen was the most consistent player they had. They traded for Diontae Johnson to give Young a reliable target on the field. They drafted Xavier Leggett to give them a big, speedy outside WR and they hope these two, plus Thielen, gives the passing game some juice. The running game is still going to be relying on Chuba Hubbard to start the year but they drafted Jonathan Brooks in round two. He’s coming off a torn ACL and won’t be ready to start the season but once he’s healthy he’s the best RB on the roster.

On defense, they brought in some solid veterans to try to be competent on that side but it will be hard after they traded Brian Burns. DL A’Shawn Robinson, LB Josey Jewell, OLB Jadaveon Clowney, safety Jordan Fuller and CB Troy Hill aren’t All-Pro guys but they are solid veterans who lift the floor of this defense. Robinson joins Derrick Brown on the front line and Brown is really good, having a better player opposite him will help. Jewell gives them a solid player to pair with Shaq Thompson and that should improve the second level of the defense. Jadaveon Clowney isn’t Brian Burns but he does his job well and will be a steady presence.

The secondary needs Jaycee Horn to become a real player at CB and not just an idea. He’s fought injuries in his career but they need him to be the guy they drafted in first round a few years ago. CB Troy Hill is a solid veteran but he’s not changing the game. The same goes for S Jordan Fuller who is a replacement level player. Xavier Woods is fine but that’s about it.

2024 AFC South Preview

The Texans went from one of the worst teams in the league to a Super Bowl contender in a year because CJ Stroud proved to be an amazing QB in year one. This season they got him more help by trading for Stefon Diggs and getting better on defense. The Colts were actually a solid team that almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew at QB, now they will see how far they can go with Anthony Richardson. Trevor Lawrence got a huge contract extension and some new weapons in the passing game but if this team fails like it did last season, Doug Pederson will be out of a job. That leaves the Titans who are transitioning to the Brian Callahan/Will Levis era now that Derrick Henry is gone. It could be a tough transition year.

Houston Texans

Stroud was everything you could want in a franchise QB in his rookie season. Nothing was too big for him and he became the team leader as soon as he stepped onto the field. He unlocked Nico Collins and made him a legitimate WR1 and made Tank Dell a deadly WR2 when he was healthy. The team didn’t like what they got from their WR depth after Dell went out with an injury so they made a splash and traded for the disgruntled Stefon Diggs from Buffalo. Diggs wasn’t great the back half of last season but he’s still a skilled player and he’s in the last year of his contract, he should be motivated. They do have guys behind those three; Robert Woods and John Metchie III, they just aren’t nearly as good as the top three. TE Dalton Schultz is fin and he’s reliable and Stroud likes reliable.

The offensive line was really banged up last season yet they still played pretty well. Call it the Shanahan effect, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree and clearly his offensive line magic rubbed off. LT Laremy Tunsil is one of the best in the league but the rest of the unit is just solid guys who are better as a unit than individually. The team wanted more out of their running game so they traded for Joe Mixon. Mixon has never been a superstar but he’s an upgrade for this team and he gives Stroud a guy to count on.

The defense wasn’t bad but it wasn’t especially good and while the team really only added Diggs and Mixon on offense, they did a little more for the defense. DE Danielle Hunter comes in to really juice the pass rush opposite Will Anderson Jr. Hunter is a top-level pass rusher. They also got Folorunso Fatukasi at DT to give them a big body inside. Once Denico Autry returns from his PED suspension the defensive line should be quite good. They also signed LB Azeez Al-Shaair who once played for DeMeco Ryans in San Francisco and he upgrades their MLB spot.

The secondary is led by CB Derek Stingley who looked like a legitimate #1 CB at times last season. They also have Jimmie Ward and at safety, Ward is getting older but he’s a sold vet and that’s a good thing because they seem to be going with Calen Bullock, a rookie, opposite him. That makes Jalen Pitre, the other starting safety from last year, the nickel back. It was the other CB spot opposite Stingley that was an issue. The signed Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson to try to fill it and Henderson didn’t even make the roster. DeMeco Ryans seems confident Kamari Lassiter, the rookie from Georgia, can handle the other CB spot. His physical profile and athletic ability are not elite but he plays better than he tests. He’s going to have to be good because teams are going to avoid Stingley with an untested rookie opposite him.

Indianapolis Colts

This is a bet on one guy, QB Anthony Richardson. Somehow, this team was in the playoff hunt until the last week of the season with Gardner Minshew playing QB almost all season. Richardson is a serious upgrade from a talent standpoint, now he has to play that way. Shane Steichen has proven to be one of the better offensive minds in the game and now he hopes to have Richardson to unleash on the league all season long. Richardson isn’t alone either. RB Jonathan Taylor is one of the better RBs in the league and with Richardson around he’s job only gets easier as teams have to account for a dynamic player at QB. The offensive line improved leaps and bounds last year with the same personnel as the year before. Proof that scheme and coaching can do wonders for an offense and the performance of an offensive line.

The pass catchers should be interesting. WR Michael Pittman Jr. got paid well this off season and while he’s as steady and reliable as they come, he’s not the dynamic playmaker you think of when you think of the best WRs in the game. That’s why they drafted AD Mitchell after he fell into the second round of the draft. Mitchell is a boom or bust player but he’s big, fast, and dynamic down the field. He should give them the dimension they have been hoping to get from Alec Pierce but have just never gotten. Josh Downs is a wizard in the slot. He can get open in an instant and if they can get Richardson to dump the ball off to him, he’ll make the play. They have some guys at TE but there’s no telling which one of Kyren Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, or Jelani Woods is going to be the guy from week-to-week.

The defense was better than it should have been last year but still needs some work. They just lost Samson Ebukam for the year and that puts a lot more pressure on rookie Laiatu Latu to be ready to contribute right away. They need his pass rush because the leading returner in sacks is Kwity Paye with 8.5, that’s not great. Latu can play right now and he could lead this team in sacks. DT DeForest Buckner is still the best player up front. Guys like EJ Speed and Zaire Franklin are good at LB but they need the guys up front to be good or it will get ugly for them.

Where this team could have used an infusion of talent is in the secondary and they really didn’t get it. JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones are fine at CB but one of them needs to take a step up to be a CB1 and I’m not sure either one can do that. Kenny Moore Jr. returns as a great nickel back but that’s all he is. Nick Cross is fine at one safety spot while Julian Blackmon can be excellent if he isn’t having to constantly cover for others mistakes.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is the present and future of the Jaguars and now Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke have to try to stick around to see it through. Pederson needs get more out of this offense and I’m not sure Baalke helped him enough. They lost Calvin Ridley in free agency and signed Gabe Davis, that’s a downgrade. Baalke did draft Brian Thomas Jr. who I really like, but he’s a rookie WR. Lawrence still has Christian Kirk, if he can stay healthy, and arguably his favorite target TE Evan Engram. The passing game must be better and more consistent.

RB Travis Etienne is better than he gets credit for but they haven’t gotten him any help as last year’s rookie Tank Bigsby did very little and they didn’t add anyone of note. The offensive line needs to be better. LT Cam Robinson being healthy might help but I’ve never been a big fan. Signing C Mitch Morse should help stabilize the position and help the interior but they need LG Ezra Cleveland to be more consistent and RG Brandon Scherff to actually stay healthy. RT Anton Harrison was the lone bright spot last year as a rookie.

The defense gets a new coordinator in Ryan Nielsen who came over after a year in Atlanta where everyone got fired. He’ll be working with a lot more talent in Jacksonville but that didn’t make the Jaguars defense all that great last year. The defender formerly known as “the other Josh Allen” is now Josh Hines-Allen and he had a great year last year. He got the big contract he wanted and now he needs live up to it. His pass rushing partner is former #1 overall pick Travon Walker who had 10 sacks last season and is starting to play like someone who can really make a difference. The team also traded for DT Arik Armstead when the 49ers needed to shed salary and he’s a great addition inside. The front four should be good.

The LBs must play up to their billing. Foyesade Oluokun was a big free agent signing a couple of years ago and Devin Lloyd was a first-round pick, they have to be that good for this defense to be better. The secondary has a really expensive CB in Tyson Campbell, he’s good but he got paid like he’s great. They signed Ronald Darby opposite Campbell, he’s okay but not good. I like Andre Cisco and they signed Darnell Savage but they will likely play Savage as the nickel back as much or more than they play him as a traditional safety. Nielsen needs to get the best out of this defense or things get tough for this team.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans surprisingly moved on from Mike Vrabel, apparently there was a power struggle between him and GM Ran Carthon and Vrabel lost. The team hired Brian Callahan, the long-time offensive coordinator of the Bengals. They also moved on from Derrick Henry and Will Levis takes over as the starting QB after he finally replaced Ryan Tannehill last season. It’s a season of change for the Titans. Callahan is a bright offensive mind and if anyone can get Levis to play up to his potential it should be Callahan. The team spent money on WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to go with DeAndre Hopkins to give Levis some legitimate pass catchers. Hopkins starts the year injured so that’s not going to help but Ridley and Boyd are still good. TE Chig Okonkwo is fine but Callahan’s offenses in Cincinnati never really featured a TE.

The running game loses Henry and the team signed Tony Pollard to go with second year back Tyjae Spears. Spears was solid behind Henry last season and Pollard is another year removed from his broken leg and should be better in time-share than as the featured back. The offensive line was atrocious last year so Brian Callahan hired his dad Bill Callahan, one of the best o-line coaches in the game to fix it. They drafted OT JC Latham and while he was a RT at Alabama, they will move him to LT. They also signed C Lloyd Cushenberry from Denver to upgrade that spot and he’s an improvement over Aaron Brewer. Bill Callahan should be a breath of fresh air and should make LG Peter Skoronski his best self If they get better line play the offense should be fine.

The defense was pretty good and they should still be that way this season under new defensive coordinator Dennard Walker. Walker comes from Baltimore and will use a slightly different system than Shane Bowen and Vrabel used. DL Jeffrey Simmons is a star up front and the team drafted NT T’Vondre Sweat to give the front some real beef. Sweat is 360+ lbs. on a good day and he’s the immovable object. Harold Landry III and Arden Key are the outside pass rushers, they’re good but there isn’t any depth. Kenneth Murray and Jack Gibbens are a less than ideal pair at ILB which is why the team made their 11th hour trade for Ernest Jones IV from the Rams. Jones is a good young player that the Rams didn’t want to have to pay. He’s a massive upgrade here but he’s still just a good ILB.

The secondary is in flux. The team traded for L’Jarius Sneed to be their top CB and he’s more than up to the task. They signed Chidobe Awuzie to be the second corner, that could be a problem since he’s had health issues. Roger McCreary is a good nickel corner. Amani Hooker is the one returning starter in the secondary at SS while Quandre Diggs was a late addition to be the starter at FS. The second CB spot could be an issue but otherwise there is talent here to have a good secondary.

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