My third and final 2013 NFL Mock Draft (the week before the draft). I’m going two rounds this time because I just can’t help myself and then I’m going to give some random thoughts and a few predictions.
I spent a lot of time on this mock draft because I love football, both college and professional. The NFL Draft is my favorite sporting event of the year because it’s when I get to see the two come together. This is my opinion based on what I’ve seen of the players (and yes I waste far too much of my time watching them), what I’ve read about what teams are thinking and what I think should happen. It is for entertainment purposes only so don’t take offense if I insulted your team (sorry but as a Patriots fan I hate the Jets) and if you think I’m a terrible writer I DON’T GIVE A DAMN this isn’t a literary masterpiece and I’m not trying to make it one. It’s meant to entertain, make you think about your favorite team and by Saturday night it will be even more irrelevant than it is now.
As always. Enjoy!
1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
I get it everyone is off the Joeckel bandwagon and hopping on the Eric Fisher bandwagon. Not me, not a chance. Neither one of these two is going to be Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace. Given that Fisher’s rise has occurred between the end of the regular season and the draft I just can’t get on board. Fisher is a good prospect and a heck of an athlete for an OT but I question anybody whose rise happened when no real football games are being played. Yes Fisher looked good at the Senior Bowl but that’s one week of practice and a game that doesn’t matter. Joeckel looked good all season against the best competition in the country and that means a lot more to me than a good stop watch number or how far he can jump, seriously when was the last time an OT needed to jump? Andy Reid has a history of drafting offensive or defensive lineman in the first round which tells me he’s mostly risk averse this high in the draft. Joeckel is well worth the pick and his bust potential is lower than Fisher’s.
Potential stupid move: They can’t make one here because it’s either Joeckel or Fisher and while I don’t like the Fisher pick it would be tough to call it stupid. Fisher’s value has risen to the point where he could go first and it’s not a real reach.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14): Dee Milliner CB Alabama
I might be the only person picking this right now in a mock draft, I haven’t read them all but I’ve read a lot and everyone seems to think its Dion Jordan here because Gus Bradley likes pass rushers. Sorry but I’m sticking with Milliner because last time I checked Bradley just left Seattle where he had Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner at CB. Bradley knows the value of big physical CB’s and he doesn’t have much of anything right now at the position. There are three first round worthy CB’s meaning that you aren’t getting one in the second round but there are many good pass rushers and Jacksonville picks first in the second round. Their odds of a good DE falling into the second round are better than those of a CB being there.
Potential stupid move: The Jaguars are in the unenviable position of not being able to make a stupid move, that may sound wrong but here’s why. Their roster is so bereft of talent that anybody they pick has a shot to be a difference maker. The only place they don’t need help is a RB and there is no chance they take a RB this high so no chance of making a stupid pick.
*The recent disclosure of multiple surgeries on Milliner may change this pick.
3. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
We all need to give Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie and hand because he is taking on one of the biggest rebuilding jobs in sports. This isn’t his first year but he is still in the middle of digging the franchise out from under the years of bad drafts, terrible trades and generally crazy moves made by former owner Al Davis. The roster is a wreck and McKenzie is taking his licks right now to dig out of salary cap hell but in the meantime he has to try to stock the roster with talent. I’m not the biggest Sharrif Floyd fan but he does grow on you. He’s versatile and can make plays and the Raiders need defensive tackles so badly if I threw on a helmet and shoulder pads it would take them at least a minute to decide not sign me. McKenzie would love to trade out of this spot and recoup some picks and his best bet would be to convince the Cardinals that all three top OT’s will be gone by the #7 pick. It’s not an easy sell but he did convince them to trade for Carson Palmer so I’m not discounting the possibility.
Potential stupid move: So far McKenzie hasn’t really made one. Not everyone is on board with the Matt Flynn pick up but whether it’s Matt Flynn or Carson Palmer behind center the QB position is not what is standing between the Raiders and the playoffs.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12): Star Lotulelei DT Utah
That’s right I’m back to where I started. Lotulelei took a trip around the first round of the mock drafts due to a heart condition discovered during the medical testing at the Combine. Now that Lotulelei has seemingly passed all subsequent tests he is back where he belongs in the top 5. The Eagles are transitioning to a 3-4 defensive alignment and no one has any idea what Chip Kelly is going to do. So I’m giving the Eagles the best defensive lineman in the draft and a guy that can play all over the front of that 3-4 defense. A great case can be made for Eric Fisher and the Eagles will have to think long and hard about it. Geno Smith has been mentioned here quite a bit but Lotulelei is too good to pass up.
Potential stupid move: I’m not a fan of Smith and I actually don’t think he fits Kelly’s offense so drafting him would be a mistake. I think Kelly knows this and he is more likely to grab EJ Manuel in the second round than take Smith here.
5. Detroit Lions (4-12): Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
The Lions rejoice, especially Matthew Stafford. Jeff Backus has been playing left tackle since the Johnson administration (and I mean Andrew Johnson) but he finally retired this off season. The Lions used a first round pick on Riley Reiff last year but he’s better suited to RT or inside at guard and as luck would have it the Lions also lost their RT Gosder Cherilus in free agency. The Lions have other needs, namely DE and CB, but when Backus retired LT became the priority. This team is built around franchise QB Stafford and keeping him healthy is priority #1. Fisher and Reiff should make nice young bookend tackles for the foreseeable future and keep Stafford upright. My opinion on the first pick may make it sound like I don’t like Fisher but I do and I think he’s a great pick here.
Potentially unfortunate move: Not really a stupid move on the Lions part but a potentially unfortunate scenario if the Raiders and the Eagles find trade partners that really like the OT’s in this draft. The Cardinals, Bills, Chargers and Dolphins could all be motivated to trade up to grab one of the top 3 OT and if they do they could all be gone in the top 4 picks. The Lions would then have some good players around to choose from but they would miss out on the LT they need. Worst case scenario is the first four picks are the three OT’s and Dee Milliner.
6. Cleveland Browns (5-11): Geno Smith QB West Virginia
Yes I know I’m the Geno hater and yet I moved him up in this draft but let me tell you why before you pull your hair out. The Browns are the wild card here because I think they guy they want (Dee Milliner) is going to be gone before they pick. They already addressed their most pressing need (pass rushing OLB’s) in free agency and they have a new coach (Rod Chudzinski) and a new GM (Mike Lombardi) that have no allegiance to current QB Brandon Weeden. I actually have a trade scenario in mind that I will talk about in my Thoughts and Predictions section that makes way to much sense for two NFL teams to pull off. The reason I think they go with Geno Smith is that Lombardi knows that you can’t win in the NFL without a great QB and I don’t think he’s convinced Weeden can be one. Also Chudzinski has spent the last couple of years coaching Cam Newton in Carolina and making him a pretty good QB so he could potentially be the right guy to know how to use Smith. Smith is an athletic guy who prefers to throw; he is more like Newton than like Robert Griffin III.
Potential stupid move: Not trading down and taking Smith where he should go…I’ll get to this a little later.
7. Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
Just within the past few weeks the NFL has gone through a QB shuffle. Kevin Kolb signed with the Buffalo Bills, Matt Flynn got traded to the Oakland Raiders and Carson Palmer was sent to the Arizona Cardinals. At this point all three of these guys could just be placeholders but what this does is eliminate the need for those three teams to reach for a QB high in the draft…sorry Matt Barkley. I actually think Palmer is the perfect guy for Arizona if they can get him some protection. People think of the Carson Palmer that has lost a lot of games with the Raiders for the past few years and yes the Raiders paid way too high of a price for Palmer but the Cardinals didn’t. Palmer is a big strong armed pocket passer that new coach Bruce Arians can use. Palmer put up some good stats in Oakland throwing to the likes of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore now he gets Larry Fitzgerald. I remember Palmer winning some games when he was throwing to Chad Johnson (before the Ochocinco thing) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (yes I spelled that right). Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts and Michael Floyd will all look a lot better with Palmer throwing to them and Palmer will look a lot better with these guys around him, however, this is all contingent on Palmer not getting destroyed which is why Lane Johnson is an important piece of the puzzle.
Potential stupid move: Going in to this season with the immovable Carson Palmer at QB without fixing that atrocious offensive line. Behind last year’s offensive line Palmer won’t make it out of the preseason.
8. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon
The Bills need help in a lot of places so who better than a guy as versatile as Jordan. The Bills have lacked an elite pass rusher since…Bruce Smith? …and Jordan would give new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine some options on how to run his defense. Chance Warmack is a distinct possibility given the loss of Andy Levitre in free agency but I think the Bills make a splash with a defensive playmaker that is great value at the #8 pick. The Kevin Kolb signing buys the Bills some time at QB so they can take one later (Ryan Nassib?) and they don’t have to rush him into the starting lineup. What does it say about the Bills QB situation when Kevin Kolb is an upgrade?
Potential stupid move: Drafting a QB anyway. I can’t completely discount the possibility because it is Kevin Kolb and I have little faith in GM Buddy Nix.
9. New York Jets (6-10): Ezekiel Ansah OLB BYU
The Jets have so many holes you could use their roster to drain pasta. Now that they have traded Darrelle Revis that means there isn’t a single position on the team they couldn’t address with this pick. They are good at LT but they are terrible at RT, Mark Sanchez is a QB but only if the standard for being a QB is taking the snap from center, they have a couple of nice young defensive lineman (Quinton Coples and Muhammad Wilkerson) but they still need help there. LB is a wasteland, WR needs work and TE is a joke. Following me here? Ansah is shooting for the moon; the payoff could be huge or it’s the end of the Rex Ryan era in New York.
Potential stupid move: Going into the season with Mark Sanchez as the starting QB and thinking you have a chance to be any good. What does Sanchez have to do to prove he isn’t a winning QB in the NFL? I assume getting Rex Ryan fired will convince the next coach of the Jets not to tie his future to Sanchez.
10. Tennessee Titans (6-10): Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
The run on pass rushers is in full swing and while I’m not the biggest fan of Mingo and I like other guys better (Jarvis Jones) Mingo has made a steady climb up the draft boards. Mingo should probably go to a 3-4 team but he can be a good pass rusher from the DE position and the Titans need a real pass rusher. The Titans addressed their biggest need at OG with free agent Andy Levitre but that doesn’t preclude them from possibly jumping on Chance Warmack here. I think they will find pass rusher to be a bigger need though.
Potential stupid move: This actually might be it. Mingo is a gamble and I think he would be better suited to OLB in a 3-4 defense. Warmack would be a safe choice but I actually think Jonathan Cooper would be a smarter choice because he has the ability to play both OG and center and the Titans could use that versatility to put their best five linemen together.
11. San Diego Chargers (7-9): Chance Warmack OG Alabama
The Chargers really need to trade up into the top 6 to get themselves a shot at one of the top 3 OT’s in this draft. Lane Johnson would be a welcome addition to a line starving for a LT. I’m not predicting trades in this mock draft and even if I was I don’t think the Chargers new GM and head coach are willing to mortgage the future just to get a LT and they have too many holes to fill to give up a lot of picks. Warmack is a fantastic consolation prize at #11. Warmack can take over for the recently departed free agent Louis Vazquez and he’s one of the best OG prospects in a long time.
Potential stupid move: Exactly what I just mentioned, trading a boat load of picks or future 1st rounder just to move up to get Lane Johnson. If they could get up into the top 6 without giving up a lot then fine but that just isn’t possible from the 11th pick. The GM and the head coach are in their first year and they know they need to build a team and they know they have a ton of holes to fill. This team isn’t an elite LT away from a Super Bowl or even the playoffs.
12. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St.
Now this is a team with an executive that is desperate enough to mortgage his team’s future to get the LT he needs. Jeff Ireland knows he is working on borrowed time which is why he went and spent a billion dollars on free agents like Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler. I going to talk about this potential trade with the Browns and why I think it should, can and probably won’t happen after this mock draft. If the Dolphins stand pat Xavier Rhodes is the type of CB they need to replace the departed Sean Smith. Rhodes is big and physical and proved he has enough speed to go high in the draft.
Potential stupid move: Going for broke on free agents because you know if this team doesn’t win you are gone. Ireland spent money in free agency like a drunken sailor and I think he might be about to send a bevy of picks to Cleveland to make his one last ditch effort to save his job. Stupid move here we come.
13. New York Jets (6-10) (from Tampa Bay): Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
The Jets finally pulled the trigger on their trade of Darrelle Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they get Tampa’s first rounder this year. If Tampa had stayed at 13 they probably would have grabbed Austin here and he makes sense for Jets too. Jeremy Kerley was the Jets top WR last year and that is nice for Kerley but not a good thing for the Jets. Santonio Holmes is coming off an injury and Stephen Hill is still very raw. Austin would give the Jets a playmaker and while it may still not be enough to make Mark Sanchez a winning QB it certainly couldn’t hurt.
Potential stupid move: There seems to be a split on whether or not the Jets should trade Revis but he is in the last year of his contract, they can’t franchise him after next season and they have had contentious negotiations with him before. Also having a great CB on a bad defense is pointless. Even if Revis can shut down his WR the other ten offensive players are killing you and you lose anyway. The best choice is to get the most compensation for him now.
14. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
I can’t let this one go. Richardson just makes too much sense here and that’s why it won’t happen. The Panthers interior of the defensive line is terrible and Luke Kuechly needs body guards up front. Richardson is the perfect blend of value and fit at #14 for Carolina and I can’t come off it. They could use some help on the offensive line at RT so DJ Fluker would make sense too. If Tavon Austin is still available he could be Steve Smith’s eventual replacement but I’m sticking with Richardson.
Potential stupid move: Over thinking it and not taking the obvious choice.
15. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
My favorite player in the draft and my choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year if he goes to the right team and the Saints would certainly qualify. Jones has a medical question having spinal stenosis and while no one is claiming he can’t play in the NFL because of it they do question how long he can play. That is actually not the reason he is falling on draft boards though, his 4.9 40 at the Georgia pro-day did not impress anyone. That’s their loss. Watch this kid on film and you will never question his game speed. He didn’t run 40 yards very quickly that day but he has the explosion and the burst of an elite pass rusher from the OLB position. Rob Ryan has taken over as defensive coordinator in New Orleans and he is installing his attacking 3-4 defense and he is going to be one happy man on draft day if the Saints get Jones.
Potential stupid move: Passing on Jones if he’s here would be a colossal mistake. The Saints transition to a 3-4 defense needs a great pass rusher and this kid is it.
16. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1): Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
According to most reports the Rams want Tavon Austin but they will have to trade up to get him. The Rams have another first round pick so if they really want to they have the ammunition to get up as high as they think they need to get him. Vaccaro is the next need on their list and he’s a pretty good pick here. There are teams coming up that could use him so taking now would be prudent but teams are also coming around to the fact that Vaccaro is good but he’s not so far ahead of Matt Elam or Jonathan Cyprien that it’s Vaccaro or bust. This is a good pick for the Rams after solving their problems at CB last off season safety is an area that needs an upgrade.
Potential stupid move: The Rams have enough holes on their team that trading both first round picks to move up to get Austin would be a mistake. They need a WR and a safety and they can get both in the first round. Austin is not far enough ahead of Corderrelle Patterson to warrant trading up for him.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina
The defensive tackle that no one is talking about except scouts and front office people is right up the alley of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Casey Hampton has been playing NT for Steelers about as long as Jeff Backus played LT for the Lions, he’s old and he’s probably done. Williams doesn’t get the pub that Floyd or Lotulelei or even Richardson get but he’s well known in scouting circles. The Steelers don’t go for flashy (Corderrelle Patterson); they don’t reach for need (Eddie Lacy); they don’t take head cases (Alec Ogletree) and they don’t take a bad schematic fit (Bjoern Werner). Williams is a classic Steelers pick.
Potential stupid move: Any of the things I just mentioned.
18. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): DJ Fluker OT Alabama
The Cowboys need a DT but there is a lot more value at DT than at OT in the second round. Also they just dropped a whole lot of cash on their QB and I don’t think they are going to leave his protection up to Doug Free anymore. Tyron Smith and DJ Fluker make for a very nice set of bookend tackles for the foreseeable future. Jesse Williams the DT from Alabama is certainly a possibility but the drop off at OT after Fluker is pretty significant and the ‘Boys need to protect their investment.
Completely stupid move: Look back at my previous mock drafts to read my take on the Cowboys idiotic switch to the Tampa-2 defense from their 3-4 defense of the past several years.
19. New York Giants (9-7): Tank Carradine DE Florida St.
I could only deny the Giants nature for so long and now I’ve finally come around to the facts. The Giants love pass rushers and Carradine is a find. The Giants took a chance on a pass rusher that everyone agreed was a gamble and they won big with Jason Pierre-Paul. Now that Osi Umenyiora has finally left and Justin Tuck is not getting any younger the Giants will need a new tag team partner for JPP and Carradine is a nice choice. They also have the luxury of being able to ease him back into game shape because they don’t need him right away.
Potential stupid move: There are certain franchises that are run very well and they draft well and that is why they are always picking in the last half of the round instead of at the top. The Giants are one of these franchises and they don’t make too many mistakes so I don’t see them doing something completely idiotic here.
20. Chicago Bears (10-6): Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
Saying that the Bears need offensive line help is like saying the Titanic bumped into an iceberg. Jermon Bushrod was their big free agent signing at LT but he’s a band-aid on a bullet wound. They need lots of help and Cooper is too good to pass up here. The Bears could grab a LB like Alex Ogletree here but Cooper is a sure thing and can play multiple positions. I’m actually not sure he will even make it to this point but if he does the Bears cannot afford to pass on him.
Potential stupid move: The Bears have some key holes to fill on the offensive line and at linebacker which matches up pretty well with the value at this point in the draft. Ogletree would be a bit of a gamble due to his off the field concerns but he would be worth the risk.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Alec Ogletree LB Georgia
The Bengals gambling on a guy with character concerns? I’m shocked… that would never happen. Ogletree was destined to be a Bengal and even with the re-signing of Rey Maualuga and the signing of James Harrison they still need a LB. Maualuga is a two down LB and Harrison doesn’t have a lot left in the tank. Ogletree has the talent to play any of the three LB positions and gives the Bengals a lot of flexibility. If the Bengals can take a head case like Vontaze Burfict (last year’s undrafted free agent treasure) and turn him into a productive player I’ll be fascinated with what they can do with a true talent like Ogletree.
Potential stupid move: The Bengals need a LB, a SS and maybe a CB so they are in a great position. The only bad move they could make is grabbing RB Eddie Lacy here and it’s only a bad move because it’s too high for Lacy and there are better players on the board.
22. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) (from Washington): Corderrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
If the Rams don’t get Tavon Austin with their first pick and they take Vaccaro then this is the perfect scenario for them. Patterson can be a game breaker and Sam Bradford needs some talent at WR. Patterson is a hell of a consolation prize if they don’t get Austin. He has all the physical talent in the world and the only concern is that he only displayed it for one season in major college football. My take on Patterson is how good can he be with great QB play? Tyler Bray was his QB at Tennessee and while Bray is a great physical specimen and a solid QB prospect in his own right he wasn’t a very consistent guy. If Patterson gets hooked up with a good QB like Bradford he could light it up.
Potential stupid move: Rams need a WR and a safety in the first round, two pick two needs, don’t over think it.
23. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Desmond Trufant CB Washington
I can’t believe the Vikings are going to luck into the best man-to-man cover guy in this draft. Trufant is underappreciated in this draft and the Vikings are going to reap the benefits. With Antoine Winfield off to the Seahawks the Vikings need a new top cover man and this is him. I like Trufant, he isn’t as big as Milliner or Rhodes but he has better hips and is a more fluid cover corner. Size is so often overrated when it comes to CB; smaller and shiftier is often the better combination.
Potential stupid move: Passing on Trufant if he’s here would qualify.
24. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Jesse Williams DT Alabama
The Colts have signed a few guys up front to help them with their transition to the 3-4 defense that they started last year but they need a really good NT in the middle and Jesse Williams is just that. Williams has been playing in the middle of Alabama’s vaunted defense and he didn’t put up eye popping numbers and he doesn’t stand out on a high light reel, that’s what makes him the perfect NT. Chuck Pagano knows what he needs to make his defense truly special and it starts right in the middle of the defensive line.
Potential stupid move: The Colts still need help at LB both inside and out but the value for 3-4 OLB isn’t here at this point and Williams is a more valuable piece to the new defense than a new ILB would be.
25. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle): Arthur Brown LB Kansas St.
The Vikings become the luckiest team in this draft if they get Trufant and Arthur Brown. I keep reading in mock drafts how the Vikings love Notre Dame players (they do have a disproportionate amount of Domers) and that’s why they will take Manti Te’o here. Okay, except I think their front office still scouts other schools too and Brown is a better all-around player and he can play the MLB or OLB and he can play three downs as opposed to the two downs Te’o can play. It’s one thing to have an affinity for players from a certain school but it’s another to be blinded by it.
Potential stupid move: There is a chance Brown could be off the board by this time and if he is that would probably make Te’o the next logical MLB but if that happens then the Vikings need to look to drop back a little and get Te’o later. This is one of the prime places for a team wanting one of the QB’s to look to trade up to from the second round so the Vikings need to keep that in mind.
26. Green Bay Packers (11-5): Jonathan Cyprien S Florida International
The Packers sent Charles Woodson packing and it is time to get younger at safety. I had them taking Matt Elam in my last mock draft and I still like Elam but Cyprien has started to grow on folks around the league and he’s a bigger guy. I said it before, if Elam was three inches taller we would be talking about him in the top 20 for sure but he’s not so Cyprien overtakes him here and the Packers get their new young safety. Menelik Watson the OT from Florida St. is a possibility here but I feel like the Packers have spent some top picks lately on the offensive line and they have neglected the secondary long enough.
Potential stupid move: Packers are a pretty good drafting team and you can make a case that they should take Eddie Lacy to fix their RB problems but I don’t think Lacy is far enough ahead of the other RB’s to warrant a first round pick.
27. Houston Texans (12-4): Keenan Allen WR California
The worst kept secret in the league is that the Texans are targeting a WR with their first pick. I like Allen even though he hasn’t had a healthy workout for anyone and people are starting to drop his grade. This is a case of an injury at a bad time could drop a guy and someone is going to get a heck of a WR. If Allen wasn’t injured I think we would be talking about him going in the top 15 picks for sure. He’s an amazing physical talent that played with some terrible QB’s at Cal. There is a reason why Jeff Tedford was fired at Cal and it wasn’t because of Keenan Allen. DeAndre Hopkins or Robert Woods might make a play for this spot but the Texans need to roll the dice on a guy that can help now and eventually replace Andre Johnson.
Potential stupid pick: Passing on Allen due to his injury, when he recovers they will regret it.
28. Denver Broncos (13-3): Bjoern Werner DE Florida St.
So the team that completely flubbed the re-signing of their top pass rusher lucks into one of the better DE’s in this draft? Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Werner started out this draft cycle looking like a top 10 pick. He was passed by a lot of great athletes but he’s still a very good player for #28 in the draft. I like Werner as an all-around DE, he won’t be the pass rusher that Elvis Dumervil is but he’ll stop the run better and he should be good enough to allow Von Miller to do his thing.
Potential stupid move: Letting Dumervil get away. Everyone is blaming Dumervil and his agent for screwing it up but the Broncos have to take some blame. Why would you let things go all the way down to the last minute of the deadline with one of your most important defensive players? You knew this was coming all year long, get it done.
29. New England Patriots (12-4): DJ Hayden CB Houston
I am reluctantly giving the Patriots a CB in the first round of the draft. Belichick should be barred from drafting CB’s in the first two rounds of the draft (Darius Butler flashbacks still make me twitch). I’m only doing this because I think Hayden is the late rising guy who will make the first round, the truth is I think there’s about a 98% chance New England trades this pick. The Patriots have one pick in each of the first three rounds but then they don’t pick again until the seventh round. This is one of prime spots for a team wanting a QB to trade back into the first round and grab Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib or whoever they seem to love. *I’ll talk more about Hayden in my Thoughts and Predictions section.
Potential stupid move: Robert Kraft needs to bar Bill Belichick from drafting CB’s in the first two rounds of the draft; he’s just bad at it. The three best CB’s Belichick has drafted were Asante Samuel (4th round 2003), Ellis Hobbs (3rd round 2005) and Alfonzo Dennard (7th round 2012). Please trade this pick.
30. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
The best TE in the draft goes to the team with the best TE in NFL history. Eifert would be a nice partner and eventual replacement for Tony Gonzalez and he can be Matt Ryan’s new best friend for the next 7-10 years. I had the Falcons going with a DE in earlier mock drafts but the signing of Osi Umenyiora has satisfied their desperate need for a DE for now. Eifert is too great a value for the Falcons to let him slip by here. After Eifert looked good blocking and looked more physical at the Combine he solidified his standing as the top TE and he should go in the first round.
Potential stupid move: For a 13-3 team the Falcons have a surprising number of holes to fill so I actually don’t think they can make a mistake here. They could use a RT so Menelik Watson would be a nice fit, they still need defensive line help so Alex Okafor would be a solid addition and they could use secondary help so Matt Elam or CB’s Jamar Taylor or David Amerson would work too.
31. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): Margus Hunt DE SMU
Yep I’m still on this one. So that makes Luke Joeckel to Kansas City, Sheldon Richardson to Carolina and Margus Hunt to the 49ers as my uncompromised picks start to finish in my mock drafts, how’s that for jinxing it. Yes I know the 49ers need a safety and they need some pass rush help but Justin Smith is getting old and he’s coming off an injury and this team lost depth on the defensive line in free agency. Jim Harbaugh knows what he needs to keep his defense from slipping and Hunt is the right guy as a DE in a 3-4 defense. Datone Jones out of UCLA could be the guy too but Hunt brings a physical presence at 6’8 that I think intrigues the 49ers.
Actual stupid move: AJ Jenkins in the first round last year, they better hope Hunt makes more of an impact. It would be almost impossible to make less of one.
32. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Menelik Watson OT Florida St.
Everybody is on the ILB pick here for the Ravens and I was too until just recently. They do need new ILB to replace the retired Ray Lewis and the departed Dannell Ellerbe but this team started playing a lot better when Bryant McKinnie stepped back in at LT and actually played well. The Ravens just invested an enormous amount of money in QB Joe Flacco and I don’t think they can entrust his protection over and entire season to McKinnie. Watson offers a lot more value here if he falls this far and he has the flexibility to play right or left tackle allowing the team to find the best fit for Michael Oher and playing Watson at the other spot. This may seem out of the box but Ozzie Newsome never reaches for a need when there is better value on the board.
Potential stupid move: I mentioned this in my last mock draft, the only time Ozzie Newsome makes a bad choice is when he’s picking a WR and I don’t see that happening here.
Round 2 (this round is two picks shorter due to the Saints forfeiting their pick in the Bounty scandal and the Cleveland Browns forfeiting their pick when they drafted Josh Gordon in last year’s supplemental draft)
33. Jacksonville Jaguars: Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M
This is why the Jaguars should take Dee Milliner instead of a DE with the second pick. There is great value still available at the top of the second round. Moore, Sam Montgomery, Alex Okafor and Datone Jones are still on the board.
34. San Francisco 49ers (from Kansas City): David Amerson DB North Carolina St.
Amerson is actually listed as a CB but I’m listing him just as a defensive back because a lot of scouts think his best position in the NFL would be safety. The 49ers lost Dashon Goldson in free agency and Amerson could be a ball hawk playing FS in that defense.
35. Philadelphia Eagles: EJ Manuel QB Florida St.
The reason Chip Kelly should pass on Geno Smith in the first round is because EJ Manuel would be a better fit for his offense and he should still be around at the top of the second round.
36. Detroit Lions: Jamar Taylor CB Boise St.
Lions address two of their biggest needs with a LT in the first round and a good looking CB in the second. Taylor can play with the big boys. DE is a definite need also but Taylor offers too much value here he could easily go in first round.
37. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): Eddie Lacy RB Alabama
The Bengals get their replacement for the very pedestrian BenJarvus Green-Ellis with the stud RB from Alabama. Lacy has more speed than you think but that isn’t his game. Lacy is a going to pound on the opponents and open things up for Dalton to Green.
38. Arizona Cardinals: Matt Barkley QB USC
Cardinals fans might get sick to their stomachs is the Cardinals draft another QB named Matt from USC but this is a much better place to get one than the last time they took one. Carson Palmer is the present and he can buy time for Barkley to be the future. I actually really like Barkley I’m just not sure he’s ready right away and his value has fallen but this is a good situation for him.
39. New York Jets: Jonathan Banks CB Mississippi St.
After trading Revis to the Bucs the Jets have yet another hole in their roster and luckily for them there is some depth at the CB slot. Banks might have gone a lot higher in this draft if he had run a better 40 time at the Combine. He was better at his pro-day but he is not a speedster his game is built on his size.
40. Tennessee Titans: Matt Elam SS Florida
The Titans spent a lot of time last year wishing someone could play SS for them better than Jordan Babineaux, now they have found someone. Elam only drops because he’s not very big and he’s more of a physical safety than a cover guy. Advantage Titans.
41. Buffalo Bills: Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
Everyone is calling for this because new head coach Doug Marrone was Nassib’s coach at Syracuse and that makes sense. Everyone that was calling for it at #8 in the first round was dreaming. The Kevin Kolb signing gives the Bills cover so they can wait until later to get Nassib. Two things, I actually believe the Bills will trade into the end of the first round to secure Nassib (more on this later) and I think Nassib beats out Kolb in training camp for job (think Russell Wilson beating out Matt Flynn for the Seahawks job last year).
42. Miami Dolphins: David Bakhtiari OT Colorado
The Dolphins need an OT unless they can work out of deal for Branden Albert from the Chiefs. If they work out a deal it may not even be for this second round pick it may be for their later one. I’m not sure giving Albert a lot of money is wise which is why the Chiefs are willing to give him up for a late second round pick but the Dolphins need a OT so it’s either Albert or they grab Bakhtiari here. Bakhtiari is a solid choice and is pretty good value here. This also changes if they make the trade I suggest later.
*A potential late trade for Branden Albert would change this pick.
43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Before the Buccaneers traded their #13 pick to the Jets in the Revis trade they were looking at drafting Tavon Austin because of his playmaking abilities. Hopkins can make plays and the Bucs need some help after trading Arrelious Benn to the Eagles. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams is a nice tandem but the NFL is a passing league and you need more than two good wide outs. I seriously considered Zach Ertz here but I think they go WR.
44. Carolina Panthers: Robert Woods WR USC
Steve Smith has to stop playing sometime and Cam Newton is going to need another WR even as Smith just winds down his career. Woods isn’t a game breaking speed threat but he might be the best route runner in the draft. Woods never looks like he’s running fast but he gets open.
45. San Diego Chargers: Kyle Long OT Oregon
Offensive lineman…offensive lineman…offensive lineman. If you hear that chant on draft day when the Chargers are on the clock just look around because you are probably standing near Phillip Rivers. Long is the son of Howie (yep that one) and the brother of Rams DE Chris Long, the NFL is in his genes.
46. St. Louis Rams: Jonathan Hankins DT Ohio St.
Hankins is dropping in the draft because despite his obvious physical gifts he tends to disappear during games. Teams are asking themselves why and when teams start questioning if you are taking plays off it hurts your stock especially at a loaded position like DT. The Rams need another DT for their rotation and they have a lot of picks to work with so they can afford to take a shot on a talent like Hankins.
47. Dallas Cowboys: Akeem Spence DT Illinois
The Cowboys are switching to a 4-3 defense and they need more DT’s. Spence is a late rising prospect that played on a bad team last year but he’s got a lot of talent and the Cowboys need talent.
48. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sam Montgomery OLB LSU
Montgomery might not be a perfect fit at OLB for the Steelers but he’s a bit of a tweener and the Steelers may be able to get the best out of him in their scheme. Montgomery isn’t the athlete his former teammate Mingo is but he was actually more productive at LSU.
49. New York Giants: Zach Ertz TE Stanford
The Giants signed Brandon Myers from the Raiders but they also lost Martellus Bennett to the Bears so grabbing a talent like Ertz is certainly a possibility. Ertz is too good to fall much farther and the Giants will take value over need.
50. Chicago Bears: Manti Te’o LB Notre Dame
Te’o will drop into the second round of the draft and it will have nothing to do with his fake girlfriend or any other stupid personal questions. Te’o was exposed in the National Championship game against Alabama and he is seen as an athletically limited player. The good news for Te’o is he can go to the Bears and continue a long line of great MLB to play in Chicago. Is he athletically limited? Yes. Will that matter playing MLB for the Bears? Hell no.
51. Washington Redskins: Terrence Williams WR Baylor
I don’t normally look for former teammate connections while doing a mock draft but RGIII needs help in his WR corps and who better than one of his favorite targets from his college playing days. This does just happen to be the right value spot for Williams also so it all works out.
52. Minnesota Vikings: Kawann Short DT Purdue
The Vikings had a great first round in this mock draft and now they need to find the eventual replacement for Kevin Williams. Williams has been there a long time and he can’t last forever. Short was a really good player on a really bad team and he will be a welcome addition to the Vikings DT rotation. Short has more value than the WR’s still available.
53. Cincinnati Bengals: Darius Slay CB Mississippi St.
Slay began to steal the thunder of his more heralded teammate Jonathan Banks with his blazing fast forty at the Combine. Banks lost more ground because of his less than impressive forty time and it would not be a surprise if Slay goes first. However, Banks will likely get the call because he has the size advantage and was a more consistent player overall. The Bengals will gladly take Slay and add him to their secondary.
54. Miami Dolphins (from Indianapolis): Alex Okafor DE Texas
The Dolphins could use someone to help Cameron Wake put pressure on the QB. Jared Odrick is a nice DE but he isn’t exactly a great fit as a 4-3 DE and he doesn’t bring the heat that would take the emphasis off of Wake. Okafor is a very nice outside rusher and would make a good pass rushing substitute.
*The potential Branden Albert trade could send this pick to Kansas City.
55. Green Bay Packers: Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina
The reason the Packers shouldn’t take a RB in the first round is because of the depth of the position in the second. Bernard is arguably the best back in this draft. Lacy is a bigger more powerful runner but Bernard is an all-around player. I actually like Bernard better and I definitely like him better for the Packers. They can’t go wrong waiting on RB because even after Bernard you have guys like Montee Ball, Joseph Randle or Jonathan Franklin.
56. Seattle Seahawks: Datone Jones DE UCLA
The Seahawks are the beneficiaries of Jones’ status as a tweener. He isn’t as fast off the edge as you would like at DE and he isn’t as big as you want at DT and that’s exactly what the Seahawks like. The Seahawks signed some free agents and have some guys but Jones’ versatility and value this late in round two makes him too good to pass on for Pete Carroll.
57. Houston Texans: Kevin Minter LB LSU
The Texans put a band-aid on their FS position with the signing of Ed Reed and in this mock draft they addressed their biggest need with WR Keenan Allen in the first round. Now what they need is a big run stuffing ILB to line up next to Brian Cushing. Darryl Sharpton will start next to Cushing but he is undersized and there is no depth. Minter is a big physical LB that can make life just a little easier on that defense. Great value pick too.
58. Denver Broncos: Kevin Reddick LB North Carolina
I like Reddick more than a lot of people and I think he can play the middle for the Broncos. He will be very good lined up next to Von Miller and he can get the job done. I’m fairly certain the Broncos will focus on defense in the draft I think Manning has the offense covered.
59. New England Patriots: Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
This makes two Patriots picks that will make me nervous. Belichick has been almost as bad a picking WR in the first or second round as he has been at taking CB’s. Hunter has loads of physical ability and hopefully upgrading from Tyler Bray to Tom Brady will be just what he needs to be more consistent.
60. Atlanta Falcons: Logan Ryan CB Rutgers
The only thing separating Logan Ryan from being a first round pick is his speed. Ryan is a tough man-to-man corner and the Falcons will love him. He can step right into a position that is in flux for the Falcons and give them a starting corner.
61. San Francisco 49ers: Corey Lemonier OLB Auburn
Lemonier is a good pass rusher that needs work on the rest of his game. Luckily for him the 49ers only need a situational outside rusher right now. Lemonier is a too small to play the traditional DE spot, he isn’t very physical and he doesn’t disengage from blocks very well so he may be better suited working off the line at OLB.
62. Baltimore Ravens: Phillip Thomas FS Fresno St.
The Ravens let Ed Reed walk in free agency because they know it’s time to get younger at the position. Thomas is a ball hawk at FS. He had eight interceptions last season and he’s exactly what the back end of the Ravens defense needs. The Ravens still need ILB but Thomas is too good to pass up here.
Thoughts, Predictions and Possibilities
– The trade that should be: The Browns are in the enviable position of having a very attractive trade target with the #6 pick. They don’t need any of the positions of value at that spot and there are a number of teams that will be looking to move ahead of the Arizona Cardinals at #7 to get OT Lane Johnson. The player the Browns want most is Dee Milliner but it is unlikely he gets to #6 and the next player they want is Geno Smith and they can get him later. Don Banks of Sports Illustrated predicted the San Diego Chargers trading up to get Lane Johnson and I explained why I don’t think they will but here’s why I think the Miami Dolphins will. Jeff Ireland is going for broke. He knows if this season isn’t a playoff year he is likely to be shown the door. He spent money on WR Mike Wallace, WR Brandon Gibson, WR Brian Hartline and TE Dustin Keller to upgrade the weapons around Ryan Tannehill. Unfortunately he let Jake Long get away in free agency and now they need a new LT. They are talking to the Chiefs about Branden Albert but I think a trade up for Johnson is a better move. This trade would allow the Browns to get some picks, build some depth and get the QB they want at a better draft position (#12). Miami also has two second round picks and could offer one as part of the trade and Cleveland would recoup the pick they forfeited by taking Josh Gordon in last year’s supplemental draft. It’s a good trade for both teams which is why it probably won’t happen. *This would be completely moot if the Dolphins trade for Branden Albert.
– The possible run on offensive linemen: I predicted that the three top tackles would go in the first seven picks and if someone trades up to Cleveland’s sixth pick they will go in the first six picks but the offensive linemen in this draft could dominate the top twelve even more than I expect. The top talent in this draft is at offensive line and I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper and DJ Fluker were off the board by the twelfth pick of the first round. That’s right the talent of these six guys could make half of the first dozen picks offensive linemen.
– The late rising player: There is always a late rising player the week before the draft and I think this year’s player is Houston CB DJ Hayden. I have Hayden going to the Patriots but if one player becomes a surprise top 15 selection my money is on Hayden. He suffered a scary heart injury last year during practice that almost killed him but he has recovered and teams are very intrigued.
– End of the 1st round trading: I predicted a second round run at QB but the truth is it will probably come earlier. The Buffalo Bills trading up for Ryan Nassib, the Arizona Cardinals getting back into the first round for a QB (Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon or Tyler Wilson) or the Philadelphia Eagles making a play for EJ Manuel could cause a run on QB’s towards the end of the first round. There are a number of teams that would be willing to trade out of the last 8-10 picks of the round to pick up extra picks. I mentioned the Patriots desire to pick up extra picks and they have a history of trading out of the first round but Minnesota at #25 could also move. The Vikings have the #23 pick so if they get one guy they want but don’t have another they like they could be talked into dropping back. If Denver doesn’t like their choices at #28 or if the Ravens aren’t satisfied with what’s left at #32 either team would be secure enough with their rosters to drop back and pick up extra picks. Quarterbacks are a valued commodity in the NFL and there are a number of solid prospects that all have their flaws but teams feel more comfortable grabbing a guy late in the first round if they can sit him at first, call it the Aaron Rodgers effect. The best part is you can bring in a kid at the end of the first round and let him compete with your veteran QB and if he wins the job great but if he doesn’t you feel fine letting him be the back-up for a year or two.
– Teams most likely to trade up: The San Francisco 49ers have a ton of picks in this draft and a roster that doesn’t need a lot of new players. They could go the route of the Patriots in the past and trade their late first rounder for a first rounder next year from a team looking to move up. I don’t think that is the thinking of the 49ers front office or coaching staff. They are more likely to go the route of the Falcons a couple of years ago and trade a number of picks to move way up to get a player they feel could make an impact and get them to a Super Bowl trophy. They need a safety to replace Dashon Goldson and they could also use another pass rushing OLB. The surprise they could look to pull off is trading up for an impact WR to help out new QB Colin Kapernick. The only reason this won’t be the case is that it would be an admission that last year’s first round surprise pick AJ Jenkins was a mistake. The St. Louis Rams are another team with some ammunition to move up and make a splash as they have two first round picks. The Miami Dolphins also have a number of picks to play with so they could be movers on the first night of the draft.
Enjoy the draft.
The Hott Read 