The NFL Draft starts on Thursday and at this point the only thing I’m sure of is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take Jameis Winston #1 overall…I think.  Yeah, it’s going to be one of those years.  This mock draft is probably more of a guess than any previous mock draft I’ve ever done and I’m usually 90% wrong in a good year.  The real issue comes up at the #2 pick where almost everyone believes Marcus Mariota will be picked but there is absolutely no consensus as to which team will get him.  The Tennessee Titans are choosing at #2 and while they could use a QB, Mariota is a terrible fit for the franchise.  The Chargers, Eagles, Jets, Rams, Browns and Bears are all legitimate trade up candidates but it will likely take up until draft day before anyone makes a move if a move is made at all.  Mariota is not the second best player in this draft but then again Jameis Winston isn’t the best player either.  QBs get picked higher than they should because everyone in the NFL knows if you don’t have a QB you don’t have a chance.

Round 1

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14): Jameis Winston   QB   Florida St.

It doesn’t matter what I or anyone else thinks about where Winston fits as an overall prospect because the Buccaneers only have Mike Glennon as a possible starter and they know he’s not a franchise QB.  Taking a chance on Winston is the only play they have here and it’s a roll of the dice.  Winston is not the surefire franchise QB Andrew Luck was a few years ago but he’s not the colossal gamble that JaMarcus Russell once was either.  If the Bucs can find some help on the offensive line in rounds 2 and 3 they can put Winston in a position to succeed.  Solidifying the offensive line, having WRs Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and a decent running game would go a long way to making Winston’s transition to the NFL a lot easier on the field.  Of course Winston’s toughest transition will likely take place off the field but if the Buccaneers have any doubts about that they shouldn’t take Winston anyway.

2. Tennessee Titans (2-14): Leonard Williams   DL   USC

Every team is looking for the next JJ Watt and while that is setting the bar extremely high Williams has a chance to be the next transcendent talent on the defensive line.  He can play any position on the line and the Titans would be wise to pair him with Jurrell Casey and turn a weakness into a decided strength.  Williams will get pressure on the QB and take pressure off of Casey along with making new addition Brian Orakpo that much more effective at OLB.  The catch here is that Mariota is coveted by many and the Titans might be wise to find the best deal and take it.  If they can swing a deal for Phillip Rivers from the Chargers I can’t see Ken Whisenhunt passing.  The window of opportunity for any franchise to compete for a Super Bowl is small and while Rivers may only have 3-5 years left in his career adding him to your team immediately makes you a contender.  I don’t think the Titans will get a good enough offer to pass up taking Leonard Williams and going with Zach Mettenberger for at least a year.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13): Dante Fowler Jr.   OLB   Florida

There is a part of me that wants to give the Jaguars RB Todd Gurley out of Georgia because their offense is in desperate need of an every down back so Denard Robinson doesn’t have to carry the load and while Gurley is climbing the draft boards this is way too early.  Fowler has been my choice for the Jaguars for a while now and his Swiss Army knife like versatility leads me to leaving him here.  Gus Bradley needs playmakers on his defense and there isn’t a defensive back rated high enough for this spot so Fowler is the guy.  The Jaguars secondary is crying for help even more than their offensive backfield but Trae Waynes isn’t going 3^rd overall and if you can’t improve your coverage than improve your pass rush and Fowler does that and more.  I actually prefer Vic Beasley myself but I think Fowler is more up Bradley’s alley.

4. Oakland Raiders (3-13): Kevin White   WR   West Virginia

The Raiders are set at QB for the first time since Rich Gannon was suiting up, thank you Derek Carr.  They are also set at one OLB spot after Khalil Mack’s fantastic rookie season and they just signed OC Rodney Hudson to a huge free agent contract.  So that’s three starting positions locked down, only 19 more to go.  GM Reggie McKenzie did a great job grabbing Mack and Carr last season and he actually did even more than that getting guys like OG Gabe Jackson, DT Justin Ellis and even guys like Shelby Harris and TJ Carrie.  Harris and Carrie are nice depth but right now they have to be starters so Oakland needs more talent.  Carr needs weapons if they are going to sustain his development and make him the franchise QB he should be.  White is my second favorite WR behind Amari Cooper but plenty of teams are in love with White’s combination of size, speed and ability.  It’s hard not to like him and he would be a dynamic down the field asset for Carr.  They can’t go wrong with White or Cooper so Raiders fans just have to hope McKenzie can stay on a hot streak on draft weekend.

I’m projecting a TRADE at the fifth pick in the draft because new Washington Redskins GM Scot McCloughan is a lot smarter than previous Redskins’ GMs and the Cleveland Browns are as desperate as ever.  The Browns move up to #5 overall by giving up their #12 and #19 picks of the first round of the draft.  Considering the Browns picked Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel last year in the first round Browns fans should be relieved they only have one pick now. 

5. Cleveland Browns (from Washington 4-12): Marcus Mariota   QB   Oregon

The Browns new QB coach is Kevin O’Connell and he spent the offseason tutoring Mariota before he took the Browns job.  GM Ray Farmer whiffed badly in the first round last year and not only on Johnny Manziel but on CB Justin Gilbert too and he needs to make a move to save his job.  Manziel is a head case and the sooner the Browns accept that and move on the better.  They grabbed a stopgap QB this offseason in Josh McCown and he can hold down the fort until Mariota is ready.  The Browns have the ammunition to get up to #5 because they have two first round picks and they will need to use them because otherwise someone else will move into this spot to grab Mariota ahead of the Jets who would assuredly take him #6.  Redskins GM Scot McCloughan will take advantage of the Browns desperation because he knows he needs more than one player to help his franchise and multiple first round picks will do him a lot more good.

6. New York Jets (4-12): Vic Beasley   OLB   Clemson

The Jets just miss out on the player they want in Marcus Mariota but they get a fantastic consolation prize in OLB Vic Beasley.  The need a pass rushing OLB almost as much as they need a QB because the one team they are desperately trying to beat is the New England Patriots and in order to do that they need to get pressure on Tom Brady.  Calvin Pace is about three years past his prime and even though new head coach Todd Bowles was able to squeeze the last little bit out of John Abraham in Arizona he shouldn’t have to do that in New York with Pace.  The Jets have been waiting years for Quinton Coples to emerge but it’s time to accept that he is what he is and move on.  Beasley would be a terror for Bowles’ defense to unleash on their opponents and adding him to a defense with a great defensive line and a revamped secondary would allow Bowles to have another dominant defense.

7. Chicago Bears (5-11): Danny Shelton   NT   Washington

I tried six different ways of talking myself out of this pick because it just makes too much sense to actually happen.  It is completely possible the Bears grab Amari Cooper to pair with Alshon Jeffery at WR but their defense was so horrific last year and the change to a 3-4 alignment isn’t going to do any good especially when you had virtually no one in the front seven that fits that defense.  Newly signed free agents OLB Pernell McPhee and DE Ray McDonald are a start but you still have a long way to go.  New head coach John Fox is a defensive minded guy and Vic Fangio’s defense needs a rock in the middle to be effective.  Danny Shelton is the definition of an immovable object and he’s clearly the best NT in this draft.  Shelton is the building block you start your 3-4 around and while a pass rushing OLB would be nice to complement McPhee there will be plenty of those around in rounds 2 and 3 but there won’t be another Shelton available.  It’s not a flashy pick but it’s the right one.

8. Atlanta Falcons (6-10): Todd Gurley   RB   Georgia

The first major change for me is Gurley moving from a late first round pick into the top 10.  Gurley had an ACL injury this last year and he wasn’t able to go through any workouts until recently and he looked impressive.  Then his medical recheck just confirmed that his knee is doing fine and he should be ready by fall to play.  RBs have been devalued recently but new Falcons head coach Dan Quinn had an up close view watching Marshawn Lynch carry the Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances so grabbing his own version of “Beast Mode” seems like a great idea.  DeVonta Freeman and Antone Smith just are not the same style of RB and Quinn can add to the offensive line later and hopefully take the pressure off of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in the passing game.  Gurley is a special back and the Falcons have other offensive pieces that are ready to compete for the playoffs right now so adding a back like Gurley that can contribute immediately is a smart choice.  The Falcons may get panned for taking RB so high but Gurley is worth the investment.

9. New York Giants (6-10): Brandon Scherff   OT   Iowa

The Giants have to sweat out the Falcons pick but they get their man in Scherff.  Scherff is being touted as a possible OG and not a tackle but I think the Giants use him at RT and move Justin Pugh inside to guard improving two spots on their front line.  Scherff is a run blocking beast and he’ll be fine pass blocking on the right side.  The Giants have to get more production out of their running game to open things up for Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz and Scherff can remedy that in a hurry.  He isn’t the most graceful athlete you’ll find at OT but Scherff can move mountains in the running game and whether it’s Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen or Andre Williams they will appreciate running behind him all day long.  I don’t know if Scherff’s long-term future is at RT or if he moves to LT or if he moves inside to guard eventually but he can be a piece to the puzzle for a long time no matter what.

10. St. Louis Rams (6-10): Amari Cooper   WR   Alabama

The Rams are rumored to be interested in Marcus Mariota but if that doesn’t come to fruition this would be the best case scenario.  Cooper is my second favorite prospect after Leonard Williams and if he’s available at #10 the Rams should sprint to the podium with his name on the card.  The Rams have been searching for a #1 WR since Torry Holt’s heyday and Cooper is just what they have been hoping for.  Cooper is the best route runner in this year’s draft and his presence would take pressure off of Kenny Britt because he wouldn’t have to be the #1 WR, it would push Stedman Bailey into a 3^rd WR role and it would open up the interior of defenses for slot receiver Tavon Austin and might actually make him a dangerous weapon.  QB Nick Foles had a fantastic year two years ago in Philadelphia and he might actually be able to do it again if they add a WR like Cooper to his arsenal.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-9): Trae Waynes   CB   Michigan St.

I’m actually hoping the Vikings prove me wrong and take DeVante Parker because I would love to see Teddy Bridgewater get to play with him again and it would make Bridgewater that much better but I think Mike Zimmer will go defense.  In a division where you face Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Jordy Nelson, Randal Cobb and Alshon Jeffery twice a year it’s a good plan to have outstanding CBs.  Xavier Rhodes proved to be pretty good last season but he needs a running mate and Waynes has the size and physicality to hold up in this division and he won’t back down from anyone.  Waynes is the best CB in this draft even though that’s not setting the bar very high this year.  Byron Jones and Kevin Johnson are getting a lot of the ink lately when it comes to CBs in this draft but Waynes is still the one most ready to step in and play.

12. Washington Redskins (from Cleveland 7-9): Shane Ray   OLB   Missouri

The first pick Scot McCloughan picked up in his trade with Cleveland and he gets exactly what he wanted in the first place, a pass rushing OLB to replace Brian Orakpo, and he still has another 1^st round pick.  McCloughan used to work in San Francisco and then in Seattle where he learned a few things from John Schneider and Peter Carroll.  When you need to reshape a roster quantity is preferred especially if you are smart enough to still get quality players.  Ray wasn’t as impressive as Dante Fowler or Vic Beasley in workouts and there are some that think Bud Dupree is a better player but Ray still brings that one quality every team wants, he knows how to rush the passer.  In the pass happy NFL getting to the QB is the best way to stop an offense and Ray has a knack for that.

13. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Alvin “Bud” Dupree   OLB   Kentucky

Dupree is an athletic freak by any standards, at 6’4 and almost 270 lbs. he ran his 40 at under 4.6 seconds and his vertical was 42 inches.  He is still raw in his technique but he is fast, athletic and if he ever figures out how to use his strength to disengage blockers he’s going to be unstoppable.  The Saints need to give Rob Ryan more help on defense especially rushing the passer.  DE Cameron Jordan is very good and OLB Junior Galette can get to the QB too but he’s has some legal issues to deal with.  Even if Galette is available all of next season the Saints could still use help opposite him.  Dupree has been a recent riser on draft boards as his excellent workouts have made teams look at his production at Kentucky more closely and they have seen a player that brings a lot to the table.

14. Miami Dolphins (8-8): DeVante Parker   WR   Louisville

The trade of WR Mike Wallace was addition by subtraction for the franchise and while adding WR Kenny Stills in a trade with the Saints was a nice move it only partially fills the gigantic void in the WR corps.  Wallace wasn’t the only WR to leave the Dolphins in the offseason as both Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson exited too.  Jarvis Landry started to show up late last year but he’s a slot receiver and if the Dolphins want to get a real look at QB Ryan Tannehill before they commit long-term to him they should give him all the weapons he needs.  Parker is dominant #1 type of receiver and would allow Kenny Stills to fill the deep threat position and keep Jarvis Landry inside the slot where he’s most effective.  Add in the addition of TE Jordan Cameron, if he can stay healthy, and Tannehill will have no excuse if he can’t get the passing game going.  Parker is right there alongside both Amari Cooper and Kevin White as a potential #1 WR from day one no matter where he goes but if he gets with a solid WR he could be spectacular.

15. San Francisco 49ers (8-8): Arik Armstead   DE   Oregon

They cut Ray McDonald last season due to off the field issues, Justin Smith may be leaning towards retirement and the only player they signed in the offseason is 33 year old Darnell Dockett who is coming off a year lost to injury.  Saying that the 49ers need help on the defensive line is like saying fish need water.  New head coach Jim Tomsula is the former defensive line coach so he knows better than anyone that his defense will be useless if they don’t get some help up front.  The 49ers have a unique need for a 3-4 DE and Arik Armstead is the best pure five-technique DE in this draft and his youth and athleticism would be a welcome addition.  Armstead doesn’t fit every defense and as a 4-3 DE or DT he doesn’t rate this high but he would flourish under Tomsula.

16. Houston Texans (9-7): Randy Gregory   OLB   Nebraska

Gregory has been considered a top 10 prospect through most of the draft process but that changed a few weeks ago when his failed drug test at the combine was revealed.  Initially reports said that his stock wouldn’t take a hit because teams already knew about his marijuana use at Nebraska but the truth is teams are concerned and now they have a reason to look at other prospects more closely.  Dupree and Ray benefit the most because they are on the same level as Gregory as OLB prospects but they don’t have a possible drug suspension hanging over their heads.  When everything else is equal between prospects the guy with the admitted substance abuse problem slips down the board.  Gregory would be a boon for the Texans as they look to fill the hole left by Brooks Reed’s departure to Atlanta, Whitney Mercilus’ lackluster career so far and Jadeveon Clowney’s knee issue.  They have a few other needs but OLB depth is a real concern.

17. San Diego Chargers (9-7): Landon Collins   SS   Alabama

There’s always one team that takes a guy no one was expecting them to take and everyone is picking the Chargers to grab an offensive lineman or a running back so I’m going out on a limb.  The Chargers lost Marcus Gilchrist to the Jets in the offseason and it’s a bigger loss than you might think.  Gilchrist paired with Eric Weddle to make a nice safety duo and the Chargers don’t really have much in reserve.  Collins has been taking it on the chin over the last few weeks as his game has been picked apart and while you can find his issues when you look for them overall Collins is still a heck of football player.  Alabama defensive backs haven’t proven to be all that successful over the past several years but you can’t hold that against Collins.  The Chargers definitely need a new RT so Andrus Peat or Ereck Flowers is a possibility and if I’m wrong on Gurley going so early and he’s here he’s a no-brainer, even Melvin Gordon makes plenty of sense given the Chargers backfield concerns.  Collins would step right into Gilchrist’s shoes and having Eric Weddle beside him would help his transition considerably.

18. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): Ereck Flowers   RT   Miami

Andy Reid has a penchant for taking linemen (offensive or defensive) early in the draft and it’s been a pretty solid strategy throughout his career.  The Chiefs still need a WR but Breshad Perriman might be a little too similar to the recently signed Jeremy Maclin and Dorial Green-Beckham and Jaelen Strong might not rate as highly as Flowers.  The Chiefs need a center and a RT meaning Flowers and Florida St. OC Cameron Erving are in play right here.  Flowers is a big and powerful run blocker that needs some work on his pass protection but he would enhance the Chiefs running game on day one.  Erving is a distinct possibility but I think Flowers wins out and the Chiefs address center later on.  Either way Reid gets a big body up front to aid his offense in the trenches.

19. Washington Redskins (from Cleveland via Buffalo 9-7): La’el Collins   OL   LSU

The Redskins addressed their pass rush need with the first pick they got from Cleveland in my make believe trade for Marcus Mariota now they have a chance to address their needs on the offensive line.  Collins is projected by most to end up inside at offensive guard and that’s certainly a possibility but he could plug in at RT for Washington and he would be a huge upgrade.  The Redskins have needed a RT for a few years now and while Collins may not be a long-term solution there he could be one for the short term and improve the protection for RGIII and open some holes for Alfred Morris.  Down the line if the Redskins find a better RT option they can slide Collins inside to guard where he would likely dominate his competition.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Byron Jones   CB   UConn

Jones is not the second best CB in the draft but this is a projection based more on Chip Kelly’s preferences than on most teams’ boards.  Jones is a superior athlete as he showcased by breaking the broad jump world record at the combine.  He’s a pretty good corner that missed a lot of last season with an injury and he still needs to refine his game because he relies pretty heavily on his athletic skill, that works in college but can get you beat in the pros.  Kelly loves athletic skill and believes that if he puts athletic players in his system they will do well.  Jones doesn’t have the pure cover skills of Marcus Peters or Kevin Johnson but he put in the time to come back from his shoulder injury and that shows he has the dedication to refine his cover skills and he could become a fantastic player in time.  The Eagles secondary was terrible last season and they are making a concerted effort to overhaul it, Jones could join Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond as the new CBs in the Eagles defensive backfield.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1): TJ Clemmings   OT   Pittsburgh

I never thought I would be able to say this about the Bengals but they don’t have any glaring needs on their team.  They could use some help at LB, they could use some more youth in the secondary and adding depth to the interior of the defensive line is never a bad idea but considering the ineptitude of the Bengals in the 90’s and early 2000’s this is incredible progress.  RT Andre Smith had some health issues last season and LT Andrew Whitworth and backup RT Eric Winston aren’t spring chickens anymore so the Bengals have the luxury of grabbing a potentially great OT a year before they may even need him.  Clemmings is oozing with potential because of his physical ability and relative inexperience as an offensive lineman.  He has only been playing offensive tackle for a couple of years and while he excelled as RT at Pittsburgh he shows many of the great athletic traits of a potential LT.  Teams that are able to grab the best player available usually sustain winning longer than teams that have to draft for need.  The Bengals are finally a team that can do that.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): Kevin Johnson   CB   Wake Forest

The Steelers defense is in need of a talent and youth infusion at almost every level but pass rushing OLB and CB are the two most glaring needs.  Finding CB Kevin Johnson out of Wake Forest still available at this point would be a blessing because he has very good coverage skills and he would fit into the hard working, blue collar culture of the Steelers.  Johnson isn’t flashy and he’s going to just go about his job as best he can and the Steelers need a new #1 corner (they could probably use a #2 corner also).  Between all of the OLBs and CBs left Johnson is the highest rated player so he makes the choice easy here, the Steelers will likely be looking to grab one of the sleeper OLB in the second or third round.

23. Detroit Lions (11-5): Andrus Peat   OT   Stanford

The Lions could use help at DT next to newly acquired DT Haloti Ngata, they could possibly try to upgrade at CB opposite Darius Slay and replace Rashean Mathis with someone that isn’t 135 in NFL years or they could try to upgrade their offensive line at either RT, LG or OC.  Andrus Peat is 6’7 313 lbs. and he would be a massive upgrade over any RT they have on the roster.  Peat isn’t a road grading run blocker like Brandon Scherff or Ereck Flowers but he’s actually a pretty good pass protector and for a team that likes to feature Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate a pass blocker would be just fine, that’s not to say he wouldn’t upgrade the run blocking too.

24. Arizona Cardinals (11-5): Melvin Gordon   RB   Wisconsin

The Cardinals could very well be the landing spot for a third QB in the first round if they like UCLA QB Brett Hundley enough because we all saw what happened to that team last year when Carson Palmer went down and Palmer isn’t getting any younger.  I still believe Hundley is the only QB other than the top two that has a chance at becoming a long-term starter in the NFL so it’s still possible someone pulls the trigger earlier than expected.  The Cardinals could also use an upgrade at RB and Gordon would give them a homerun hitter that can actually carry the load.  Andre Ellington is a big play guy but he just isn’t physical enough to carry the ball 20 times a game.  Gordon never had that problem as he is used to being in a run heavy offense.  Gordon also projects to be a much better NFL RB than the long line of great Badger backs that haven’t done much in NFL.

25. Carolina Panthers (7-8-1): DJ Humphries   OT   Florida

Okay so I’m back on the Humphries to the Panthers pick because the Panthers need to sure up their offensive tackle position and it’s either Humphries or Oregon OT Jake Fisher and Fisher just doesn’t feel right here.  Humphries can plug into the LT spot so they can move Michael Oher to RT where he’s less of a liability.  The Panthers still need help at CB but unless Kevin Johnson or Byron Jones is available I think they pass here.  The Panthers aren’t likely to gamble on Marcus Peters and Jalen Collins recent failed drug test revelation while at LSU is going to cause him to fall.  They could reach for CB Ronald Darby but Humphries is better value and fills a bigger need.  WR Breshad Perriman could also be the pick and he would pair well with Kelvin Benjamin but I still think protecting Cam Newton has to come first.

26. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Breshad Perriman   WR   Central Florida

The Ravens have to address their lack of playmakers on offense or their $100 million investment in Joe Flacco last year is going to be money down the drain.  I don’t blame them for letting Torrey Smith walk as a free agent given his one-trick pony skillset but they can’t go into next season with Steve Smith as their #1 WR.  Perriman has the pedigree and #26 overall feels like a more likely landing spot than somewhere between #12-#18 like some are projecting.  He is actually an upgrade over Torrey Smith because he’s a more complete WR (he can run more routes) but he’ll still have a learning curve.  The Ravens rarely reach for need but in this case Perriman not only fills a need but he might be the best prospect available.

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-4): Malcolm Brown   DT   Texas

You expect more flash from the Dallas Cowboys but their team is in pretty good shape overall and the last few years they have focused early on the offensive line.  The fact that they have built such a good offensive line through the draft should point them in the right direction on how to fix their defensive line problems.  Signing DE Greg Hardy was controversial and now he’s been suspended for the first ten games next year so grabbing a DE is a possibility but the value lies at DT.  Malcolm Brown is a quick, penetrating DT which is exactly the type of player defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli likes.  Brown is Texas Longhorn originally from Texas so being drafting by the Cowboys will make for a nice story.

28. Denver Broncos (12-4): Jake Fisher   OT   Oregon

Quite often there is an offensive tackle that sneaks into the late first round when a team needs help at the position but the surefire guys are off the board.  Fisher has been moving up the board late in the process and it conceivable that the Broncos will reach a little bit to get a RT they think fits Gary Kubiak’s style.  Fisher isn’t an elite athlete and the zone blocking system Kubiak uses would hide some of his deficiencies so he could play RT.  The Broncos need a DT too but if OTs come off the board like I think they will the Broncos may need to grab Fisher here to make sure they get one.  They need to solidify the position to give themselves a chance to compete in what is likely to be Peyton Manning’s last season.

29. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Cameron Erving   OL   Florida St.

Erving’s best position is probably as a center considering he excelled there after moving inside in the middle of last year.  However, Erving has also played left tackle and his versatility could be very useful for the Colts as they could use help at either OC or RT.  The Colts could let Erving battle for either position and use the best 5 linemen they have by slotting him in where they need him.  The Colts need help in the secondary and at inside linebacker meaning LBs Eric Kendricks, Stephone Anthony or Benardrick McKinney are all possibilities as are DB Eric Rowe and CB Marcus Peters.  My final thought on the Colts is that if both Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are off the board at this point (as they are in this mock draft) they could be a landing spot for a third RB in the first round like Jay Ajayi of Boise St.

30. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Eric Kendricks   ILB   UCLA

If the season started today the Packers would line up on defense with a gigantic gaping hole in the middle of their defense, they could slide Clay Matthew inside to cover like they did last year but that creates another problem on the outside.  Carl Bradford might be able to hold down one ILB spot but Eric Kendricks would come in as an immediate starter on day one.  Kendricks is also a very versatile player due to his years in UCLA’s variable defense so Dom Capers could come up with some creative ways to use both Kendricks and Matthews all over the field.  It’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Packers will take and ILB in the first round and I would bet that even if they do it won’t be the last ILB they take.

31. New Orleans Saints (from Seattle 12-4): Dorial Green-Beckham   WR   Mizzou/Oklahoma

The Saints have a second first round pick from the Jimmy Graham trade with Seattle and after using their first one on an OLB for their defense they should really consider getting Drew Brees some help.  They traded away Graham and WR Kenny Stills and WR Marques Colston isn’t getting any younger so adding a talented playmaker like Green-Beckham would certainly help their offense.  Green-Beckham has a number of off the field issues but a strong veteran offense led by head coach Sean Peyton, QB Drew Brees and WR Marques Colston could be the perfect environment for Green-Beckham to turn himself around.  The Saints took WR Brandin Cooks last year and he was off to a terrific start before an injury ended his season and Green-Beckham is the exact opposite type of WR from Cooks so they would play well off each other in the future.

32. New England Patriots (12-4): Marcus Peters   CB   Washington

This possibility makes me both excited and scared at the same time.  The Patriots need talent at CB after losing both Darrell Revis and Brandon Browner in free agency and Peters is arguable the best pure cover corner in this draft (I would argue he is the best).  It isn’t even his off the field issues that concern me because they have to do with not getting along with coaches and flying off the handle at his coaches and I don’t see that being an issue with Bill Belichick, Belichick has handled far tougher divas than Peters.  My fear stems from the fact that Bill Belichick has a terrible history drafting CBs in the early rounds of the draft and I don’t want him to jinx Peters by taking him here.  The Patriots need him because he profiles as a future #1 CB and those are hard to find.  Peters is only available because he isn’t the supreme athlete that Byron Jones is and Kevin Johnson gets along with people better and is a pretty good cover man himself.

Round 2

33. Tennessee Titans: Eric Rowe   DB   Utah

The Titans need to address the RT position but Rowe is moving up the draft boards pretty quickly and represents good value.  He can come in as a CB and help out there but he may eventually move over to FS and he could be the long-term replacement for the aging Michael Griffin.

34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Owamagbe Odighizuwa   DE   UCLA

Odighizuwa has first round potential so the Buccaneers would be lucky to find him here early in the second round.  After letting Adrian Clayborn walk in free agency and cutting Michael Johnson after just a year they really need to find some talent at DE and Odighizuwa is a talent for sure.

35. Oakland Raiders: Ronald Darby   CB   Florida St.

Darby was overshadowed in his own backfield by PJ Williams and Jalen Ramsey but Ramsey isn’t in this draft and PJ Williams got himself into a little off the field trouble.  Darby is a solid player in his own right and after an impressive athletic display at the combine teams took notice.  The Raiders need talent and Darby is good enough to become an immediate starter, he probably isn’t going to be in the conversation as the best CB in the NFL but he’s better than almost any CB on the Raiders roster.

36. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jay Ajayi   RB   Boise St.

The Jaguars are building a nice offense with QB Blake Bortles, WRs Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns, free agent TE Julius Thomas and they addressed their offensive line in the offseason with RT Jermey Parnell and OC Stefen Wisniewski.  Now they need a RB that can carry the load, no offense to Denard Robinson but he is a situational back.  Ajayi is 6’0 220 lbs. and he can be the workhorse.  Blake Bortles development would be seriously aided by having a back like Ajayi to take the pressure off the passing game.

37. New York Jets: Brett Hundley   QB   UCLA

The idea that the Jets are going to go into the season with Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick as their top options at QB is laughable.  Smith hasn’t shown a whole lot of promise and the new regime at GM and head coach has no allegiance to him whatsoever, Fitzpatrick is nothing but a stopgap.  Hundley may need a little time but he is a far superior option to either of these two and would actually bring some hope of competent QB play.

38. Washington Redskins: Quinten Rollins   CB   Miami (OH)

After addressing their two most pressing needs (OLB and RT) in the first round after my make believe trade with the Browns the Redskins get some youth for the secondary.  Rollins played basketball for 4 years at Miami (OH) and only one year of football but he’s an intriguing prospect.  The Redskins can hope DeAngelo Hall has one more year in him to help Rollins transition to the NFL and then be ready to take over.

39. Chicago Bears: Jaelen Strong   WR   Arizona St.

The Bears may luck into the best of both worlds if they can get Danny Shelton in round 1 and still have a WR like Strong available in round 2.  Strong is one of my favorite players in this draft and he’s going to be an excellent addition to any team.  The Bears could replace Brandon Marshall with Strong and hope that Jay Cutler figures it all out at the age of 32.

40. New York Giants: Damarious Randall   FS   Arizona St.

Randall isn’t the biggest safety in the draft but the Giants need a lot of help at the position and Randall could be a very good centerfielder at FS.  The Giants don’t have much on their roster and a player like Randall would step right into a starting position on day one.

41. St. Louis Rams: AJ Cann   OG   South Carolina

There is a perception that the Rams need to take a RT in this draft but their RT from last season Joe Barksdale is still on the free agent market because he hasn’t found a suitable offer.  Greg Robinson is going to move outside to replace Jake Long at LT meaning the Rams should grab Cann and plug him in at guard and then re-sign Barksdale to help solidify their line.

42. Atlanta Falcons: Eli Harold   DE/OLB   Virginia

After grabbing Todd Gurley in my first round the Falcons look to help their defense out a bit.  The free agent additions of Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed and O’Brien Schofield help the pass rush but Harold would bring speed off the edge that new head coach Dan Quinn would love.  Harold would be a situational pass rusher to begin with but he has the type of versatility Quinn had in Seattle with Bruce Irvin.

43. Cleveland Browns: Eddie Goldman   DT   Florida St.

After making a bold move to get yet another QB of the future the Browns need to address the fact that the middle of their defense was terrible last year against the run.  Goldman is good 3-4 NT prospect that would make a major difference up front for them.  Of course they could always draft Bryce Petty after taking Marcus Mariota because if they just keep drafting QBs sooner or later they have to stumble into a franchise QB, right?

44. New Orleans Saints: Maxx Williams   TE   Minnesota

Williams is the top TE in the draft but he is no Jimmy Graham.  That’s not a problem because the Saints are looking for a TE that can be a pass catcher but also contribute in the running game.  Williams knows how to block from his time with the Gophers and while he may not be the mismatch Graham was he’ll do just fine.

45. Minnesota Vikings: Stephone Anthony   LB   Clemson

The Vikings middle linebacker spot has been an issue for a few years and the loss of Jasper Brinkley in free agency didn’t help the problem.  The Vikings shouldn’t go into the season with Audie Cole as their starting MLB and Anthony has been moving up the draft board.  He’s got good size and instincts and would be a major upgrade over Cole.

46. San Francisco 49ers: Benardrick McKinney   ILB   Mississippi St.

To say that the 49ers need help at ILB is an understatement.  The retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland and the injury history of Navarro Bowman makes Michael Wilhoite the closest thing to a sure thing they have and they were trying to trade him a couple of months ago.  McKinney is a big ILB with range and a knack for being in the middle of the action.  The 49ers would have to be crazy to pass on him here because he’s a starting caliber ILB and they are in short supply in San Francisco these days.

47. Miami Dolphins: Shaq Thompson   LB   Washington

The Dolphins LB corps is nothing to write home about and they would be lucky if Thompson falls this far.  Thompson has proven to be a bit of a tweener in his workouts being a tad small for LB and a little slow for SS but he’s a player and he could play weakside LB for Miami and probably be their best LB.

48. San Diego Chargers: Donovan Smith   OT   Penn St.

Smith is a 6’6 338 lbs. giant that moves very well considering his sheer size.  The Chargers would do well to grab Smith and plug him in at RT so they could move DJ Fluker inside to LG where his power would be an asset and his lack of lateral movement wouldn’t be a detriment.  Fluker would excel inside and Smith should be able to better handle outside rushers at RT.

49. Kansas City Chiefs: Nelson Agholor   WR   USC

The Chiefs get lucky with things falling their way after grabbing RT Ereck Flowers they still get a very talented WR in Agholor.  After adding Jeremy Maclin in free agency Agholor would be a great complement to him because while Agholor isn’t a great deep ball receiver that is exactly where Maclin excels.  Maclin and Agholor would be the best Chiefs receiving duo since…the beginning of time?

50. Buffalo Bills: Laken Tomlinson   OG   Duke

The Bills traded their first round pick last year to move up and draft Sammy Watkins so this is their first choice in the 2015 draft.  I would like to give them a QB to upgrade over Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel but that doesn’t exist at this point in the draft.  Surprisingly the Bills don’t have any other major holes on their team and their best course of action would be to upgrade the interior of their offensive line.  OG Laken Tomlinson would be a big upgrade over Chris Williams and getting better upfront  would make new RB LeSean McCoy that much more effective.  Cassel is likely to hold off Manuel but he is just a caretaker and he would be well served by a great ground game.  Tomlinson is not a household name, guards rarely are, but he’s an excellent prospect that would make a major difference for the Bills.

51. Houston Texans: Devin Smith   WR   Ohio St.

The Texans cut Andre Johnson in the offseason and while DeAndre Hopkins proved to be a very good WR last season they need a deep threat to take the top off the defense.  Smith is the absolute definition of a deep threat and pairing him on the outside with Hopkins while free agent signee Cecil Shorts works inside the slot would give QB Ryan Mallett (or Brian Hoyer) some weapons in the passing game.  Smith may be primarily known as a deep threat but something tells me Bill O’Brien could get the best out of him.

52. Philadelphia Eagles: Phillip Dorsett   WR   Miami

While it certainly seems like Chip Kelly has an aversion to small, fast WRs given he cut DeSean Jackson last year and let Jeremy Maclin walk this year, he knows a playmaker when he sees one and Dorsett would be a good complement to Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper.  Dorsett’s elite speed and elusiveness would be a welcome addition and he and Matthews can both play inside the slot or outside receiver.

53. Cincinnati Bengals: Carl Davis   DT   Iowa

Domata Peko struggled last season and he’s been in the league 10 years so his time may be coming to an end.  Geno Atkins wasn’t his usual dominant self last season either but he’s only 27 so the Bengals are hoping he can bounce back.  Atkins needs a big body next to him because he’s undersized and Davis is 6’5 320 lbs. so he qualifies.  Davis would be great value here because he’s a legitimate first round possibility and he’s ready to contribute immediately.

54. Detroit Lions: Grady Jarrett   DT   Clemson

The trade for Haloti Ngata was a nice move after losing Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley but the Lions still need more help at DT.  Jarrett would be a great player to put next to Ngata who is a 340 lbs. behemoth that can anchor down because Jarrett is at his best as a penetrating force.  Jarrett’s lack of girth wouldn’t be an issue lined up next to Ngata.

55. Arizona Cardinals: Preston Smith   DE   Mississippi St.

The Cardinals lost Darnell Dockett to free agency and even though he missed time last year due to an injury that just showed them how much they need a new 3-4 DE.  Smith is 6’5 271 lbs. and his strength and powerful hands make him an ideal candidate to be a five-technique end.  He doesn’t have the pure speed to be an effective edge rusher in the NFL but he does possess the ability to anchor and hold the edge as well as get some push up field the way a 3-4 DE must.

56. Pittsburgh Steelers: Danielle Hunter   OLB   LSU

Hunter looks the part of an elite pass rusher in workouts but he never really put it to use on the field.  The Steelers are in need of some reinforcements at OLB given Jason Worilds surprising retirement and Jarvis Jones inability to take over the spot.  Arthur Moats is just a guy and James Harrison is well past his prime but perhaps the Steelers can fashion Hunter’s physical gifts into an actual pass rusher.

57. Carolina Panthers: Jalen Collins   CB   LSU

Collins likely cost himself a round in the draft after the disclosure that he failed drug tests while at LSU.  Collins wasn’t a perfect prospect to begin with because he lacks experience and is still very raw but the information about drug use at LSU seems to be new information and teams will go for players they feel more comfortable with instead of taking a chance.  The Panthers need some help at CB and Collins wouldn’t be asked to be a major contributor from day one and they could hope that newly signed veteran Charles Tillman would be a good influence on Collins his rookie year and help him transition to the pros.

58. Baltimore Ravens: Lorenzo Mauldin   OLB   Louisville

The Ravens rarely reach for need and that’s why they take Mauldin here instead of getting a CB or a safety.  Mauldin would be good insurance behind aging OLBs Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil and would be an excellent pass rushing specialist as a rookie.  Mauldin is versatile enough to replace the departed Pernell McPhee and he could be an eventual full-time replacement for Suggs or Dumervil.

59. Denver Broncos: Jordan Phillips   DT   Oklahoma

I’ve made my feelings about Phillips pretty well known but a guy that is 6’5 330 lbs. is only going to drop so far no matter how raw he is.  The Broncos reach a little in the first round of this mock draft to grab RT Jake Fisher but they get a guy here in Phillips a little later than most expect.  The Broncos need bodies at DT so Phillips won’t have the luxury of easing into a rotation but they need help all over the defensive line so he won’t be alone in learning on the job.

60. Dallas Cowboys: PJ Williams   CB   Florida St.

Williams draft stock has fallen behind guys like Quinten Rollins, Eric Rowe and Ronald Darby because he freelances too much and gambles too often.  His recent DUI arrest did not help his cause but his loss might be the Cowboys gain.  Morris Claiborne has been a bust and Orlando Scandrick is apparently unhappy so that leaves Dallas with Brandon Carr and needing some significant help at CB.  Williams has the ability to be an excellent cover corner in the NFL and he will contribute immediately.

61. Indianapolis Colts: Tevin Coleman   RB   Indiana

The Colts were hoping to grab Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon in the first round but Coleman is more than a consolation prize here in the second round.  Coleman’s big play ability would be the perfect complement to Frank Gore’s grind-it-out style and he can eventual replace Gore because he’s able to handle a heavy workload.  The Colts continue to put playmakers around Andrew Luck and hope it puts them on the way to a Super Bowl.

62. Green Bay Packers: Paul Dawson   ILB   Baylor

I said Eric Kendricks wouldn’t be the last ILB the Packers take in this draft and it just so happens that the best available talent at this point in the second round is Baylor’s Paul Dawson.  Dawson wouldn’t just be a choice for depth he is a legitimate starting candidate next to Kendricks and I would expect him to win the job.  The Packers only other real need is at NT and there aren’t any of those worth this draft spot.

63. Seattle Seahawks: Ali Marpet   OL   Hobart

The Seahawks big offseason move to get TE Jimmy Graham was certainly justified considering their need for a playmaker on offense but it overshadowed the fact that they gave up their starting OC Max Unger along with their first round pick.  Adding Unger’s loss to the free agent defection of OG James Carpenter and the Seahawks need to address the interior of their offensive line.  Marpet was a Division III All-American who started at LT for three years before earning an invite to the Senior Bowl.  He moved inside to OG in Mobile and more than held his own against the best competition he faced.  Marpet isn’t an elite athlete but he is smart and aggressive and some think he may be able to play OC.  The Seahawks need help inside and they could take Marpet and give him a chance to win a job at either OG or OC.  GM John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll have never been afraid to think outside the box so this pick is right up their alley.

64. New England Patriots: Michael Bennett   DT   Ohio St.

Bennett isn’t the space-eating NT that Vince Wilfork was but there aren’t any of those left that are worthy of a second round pick even if it is the last pick of the round.  Bennett is the type of versatile lineman Bill Belichick likes given his penchant for using multi-variable fronts.  Bennett can be an interior DT or play the edge and anchor against the run.  He has multiple pass rush moves and most importantly would bring youth and talent to the defensive line.  It doesn’t hurt that Bennett has played the last few years for Urban Meyer, a trait Belichick apparently loves.

Less than two weeks to go until the 2015 NFL Draft so we are in the middle of the over analysis stage which means players are moving up and down teams’ draft boards for no apparent reason.  Some guys had a great workout here or there so they are moving up, others have been so over analyzed that they have been nitpicked apart and every flaw has been blown out of proportion meaning they are dropping.  There are players emerging as possible sleepers available later in the draft and teams are focusing in on the players they want to target and the positions they need to fill.  I’m going to go over players I think are overrated, ones I think are underrated and players I see as possible sleepers in this draft.

Overrated  (there are several ways prospects can end up in this category)

“Workout Warrior” Division

WR Breshad Perriman   UCF – Perriman is a speed demon that ran a 40 yard dash at his pro day workout that is the stuff of legends.  He was a productive player at Central Florida so it’s not like he is only impressive in shorts but right now he is climbing draft boards and by some accounts he’s pushing DeVante Parker as the third best WR.  No offense to Perriman but if he goes in the top 15 or ahead of Parker that’s an overdraft.  I can see him moving ahead of Dorial Green-Beckham but I still like Jaelen Strong better as the fourth WR.  It’s a great WR draft class and six or seven might go in the first round Perriman is in that group but rating him alongside Parker is crazy.

CB Byron Jones   UConn – A workout legend was born at the combine when Jones broke the world record in the standing broad jump going over 12 feet.  He is a special athlete and his pro day workout was fantastic even without breaking 4.4 in the 40, he is one of the best athletes in the draft.  His rise up the draft boards probably has as much to do with a less than impressive CB class overall.  Jones isn’t pushing Trae Waynes as the top CB but there’s still time for teams to talk themselves into that lunacy.  In some rankings he has passed Washington CB Marcus Peters which is unbelievable to me.  Peters isn’t as fast or as explosive as Jones athletically but he a superior cover guy with more natural cover skills.  If someone can harness Jones’ athletic ability he could be an incredible player but his value is a little too high for me right now.

“He looks the part” Division

OT DJ Humphries   Florida – Humphries is the type of athletic specimen NFL coaches love to find at the OT position because guys that weigh 300 lbs. shouldn’t be able to move like he does.  This draft is lacking in the type of athletic big men teams seek at the Left Tackle position so Humphries is still seen as a first round player.  To me he has never quite looked like an elite OT because he’s missing the killer instinct and he’s never had the size or the power necessary to dominate in the running game.

DT Jordan Phillips   Oklahoma – When you’re 6’5 329 lbs. teams are sometimes willing to overlook a few flaws, in Phillips case they may be overlooking too many flaws.  DTs can face a tough challenge when they are as tall as Phillips is at 6’5 because they have a tendency to stand up and play too high, Phillips does that too often.  He is young so that is an issue that can be addressed with good coaching but he also has a tendency to coast and that’s harder to fix.  Phillips should have been more dominate in college but he lacks technique and I question his motor.  However, there are only so many 6’5 guys that weigh 329 lbs. and have the athleticism of Phillips so he will get drafted too high.  He isn’t a gamble I would consider in round 1, he might be worth a 2^nd round pick if you’re in desperate need of a DT but for me I wouldn’t touch him until the 3^rd round.

“There are better players” Division

RB Ameer Abdullah   Nebraska – Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are the consensus top two RBs even if there is little consensus as to who is #1 and who is #2.  Some rankings have Abdullah as high as 3^rd or 4^th and some have him a bit lower.  I like Abdullah but there are way too many backs I’d take ahead of him.  Abdullah has a lot of miles on his tires so to speak and he just doesn’t have the size I think a player needs to excel at RB in the NFL.  He would be a nice complementary back but you don’t take those guys in the second round.  Gurley and Gordon are no-brainers ahead of Abdullah and I think Jay Ajayi out of Boise St. is clearly ahead of him.  I would also take Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and David Johnson ahead of him and you could probably convince me to take TJ Yeldon too.

DE Preston Smith   Mississippi St. – In this draft the majority of elite pass rushers are guys that can play OLB in a 3-4 so Smith is unique in the sense that he is a 4-3 DE.  I’ve seen Smith projected by some to sneak into the end of the first round and that is a stretch for me.  At 6’5 271 lbs. Smith doesn’t have the versatility to play OLB in a 3-4 and he just doesn’t look like an elite pass rusher because he lacks top end speed off the edge.  He isn’t in the same class as Alvin Dupree or Owamagbe Odighizuwa and I think he’s more of a base end like Mario Edwards and I would draft Edwards before Smith.

Underrated

RB Jay Ajayi   Boise St. – We are past the point where players out of Boise St. are unknown but Ajayi is being overshadowed by the giant shadows cast by Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon.  While Gurley and Gordon hog the spotlight Ajayi is clearly the next best RB in the class to me.  His all-around game, both as a runner and pass catcher, and his ability to run low to the ground and keep his balance make him a potential NFL starter early in his career.  He has overcome off-the-field issues and injuries and he’s a better person and player because of it.  Ajayi isn’t in the first round conversation like Gurley and Gordon and he doesn’t have the same national recognition like Ameer Abdullah or Duke Johnson but he’s going to be a very good player for someone next year in the NFL.

WR Rashad Greene   Florida St. – Greene is on the outside looking in of the Top 10 WR rankings but that is more a testament to the depth of the position than an indictment of Greene’s ability.  He led the Seminoles in receiving for four years and while he isn’t the biggest or fastest WR in the draft he knows how to get it done on the field.  Greene has a natural ability to get open despite his small frame and he catches everything.  He is also a plus punt returner which adds to his overall value.  He probably isn’t coming off the draft board before the third round but as last year’s draft showed you can find major contributors at the WR position later on.  Greene is one of my favorite players in the draft because he’s just a good football player.

OT TJ Clemmings   Pittsburgh – There is no sure-fire elite LT prospect in this draft.  Brandon Scherff and La’el Collins might both be better suited inside at guard, Ereck Flowers is a powerful RT prospect and you’ve read my thoughts on DJ Humphries.  Clemmings has the size and athletic upside to possibly become a top-notch LT.  He hasn’t been playing offensive line very long and while he can excel at RT his future could be on the left side.  I like what I see and I thing Clemmings projects as a guy that will start his career on the right side and eventually move over to the left.

OG Tre Jackson   Florida St. – It’s hard to say that a guy who was projected as the top OG in the draft at the beginning of last season can somehow be underrated but Jackson has fallen behind a few guys through the year and during the scouting process.  AJ Cann and Laken Tomlinson are higher rated at the moment but Jackson is a player a team can grab in the third or fourth round and have a starting OG on day one and for the next five years.  Jackson is a mauler and he will improve the interior offensive line play for whatever team drafts him.  He is the reason why I question teams taking a OG in the first or early second round when you can get someone this good a little later.

OLB Lorenzo Mauldin   Louisville – Last year his former Louisville teammate Marcus Smith was surprisingly taken in the first round by the Eagles, he had a less than stellar rookie season.  I like Mauldin a lot more than I ever liked Smith and I think he can be a steal in the 3^rd or 4^th round.  This draft is teeming with pass rushing OLB but for a team that may need more than one or a team that wants one but has bigger needs Mauldin would be an excellent choice.  He isn’t the most flexible athlete but his motor never quits.  Mauldin grew up with a tough background and spent most of his life in the foster system but it never stopped him, he fought his way into college and graduated from Louisville and that shows a lot of character.

DT Grady Jarrett   Clemson – As with a lot of these underrated players Jarrett isn’t the biggest or the fastest player but what he lacks in measurables he makes up for in knowhow.  Jarrett is barely 6’1 and only a shade over 300 lbs. but that doesn’t stop him from being one of the most disruptive interior defensive line prospects in this draft.  He doesn’t have the size of a Jordan Phillips or an Eddie Goldman but he may make a better pro than either of those two.  Jarrett isn’t going to be drafted to be a NT but as an under tackle on a 4 man front he can be devastating.  He isn’t as good as Aaron Donald was last year but he’s a similar player and in the right scheme he will destroy offenses for years to come.

ILB Ramik Wilson   Georgia – The inside linebacker position has been devalued by many teams because many teams go to just two linebackers in their sub packages meaning the middle or inside linebacker becomes a two down player.  Wilson is the exception here because he is actually a pretty good coverage LB and against teams that utilize a “move” TE Wilson would be a nice option to have.  Wilson doesn’t stand out like Eric Kendricks from UCLA and he doesn’t have the size of Benardrick McKinney but he also won’t cost you a 1^st or 2^nd round pick like those two will.  Whatever team steals Wilson in the 4^th or 5^th round could be getting a starting LB if it’s the right system.

DB Eric Rowe   Utah – I’ve made it pretty clear that the safety position leaves a lot to be desired in this draft and while Rowe is being looked at as a CB prospect by most teams I think his future could be at safety.  Rowe played safety up until last year when he moved to CB and while his size (6’1 205 lbs.) is tempting at that position he could really excel at safety.  Usually playing a position like CB instead of safety helps a players draft prospects but Rowe could the top free safety in the draft or just one of a group of decent corners.  Rowe reminds me of Patriots FS Devin McCourty, McCourty entered the league as a CB but he struggled until they moved him to FS where he was able to use all his skills.  A free safety with coverage skills is a rarity in the NFL today and as the NFL becomes more and more a passing league teams are going to need guys like Rowe playing deep.

Sleepers

QB Connor Halliday   Washington St. – I’ve written quite a bit about the lack of depth in the QB class this year and I’ve gone so far as to say there are only 5 QBs worth drafting at all.  Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley, Bryce Petty and Garrett Grayson but there are clearly more than 5 teams that need help at the position so someone is going to have to take a chance.  Halliday is a guy that missed some time and missed workouts because of an ankle injury but he has some very nice tools someone could work with.  He’s over 6’3 and while his weight hovers around 200 lbs. (making him a bit skinny) he has an NFL arm.  He played in Mike Leach’s pass happy offense and out of the shotgun so he will have some transitioning to do to play from under center but if you’re going to take a chance late on day three of the draft you could do a lot worse than Halliday.

RB Jeremy Langford   Michigan St. – Langford missed out on most of the hype around the Big Ten’s best backs; Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman stole most of that spotlight, but Langford is a player.  He is arguably the best pass catching RB in the draft and he excels at the screen pass game which is a staple in most NFL offenses.  Langford got some attention when he ran a faster than expected 40 at the combine (4.42) but he still feels a bit forgotten in a deep RB class.  He might be just a change-of-pace back in many teams’ views but at 6’0 208 lbs. he has the necessary build to be an every down type of back.

WR Stefon Diggs   Maryland – Diggs is a good athlete who believes he’s a great athlete and good WR who thinks he’s a great WR.  When he’s on he’s incredible and when he’s disinterested he’s a nightmare.  Diggs has the diva-WR gene but has lacked the consistent effort to dominate every time he steps on the field.  Usually I hate this type of guy but I’ve seen what he can do when he’s motivated and the fact that he is likely to slip into the 5^th or 6^th round leads me to believe he’ll be very motivated entering the league.  Injury issues could derail him as they have in the past and anybody that drafts him in the 3^rd round or higher would be crazy because it removes his motivation.

WR Deon Long   Maryland – Yep I’m listing both WRs from Maryland and if I were drafting I would probably want Long on my team over Diggs.  Long isn’t quite the athlete Diggs is but he’s incredibly talented and if he hadn’t bounced all over the country in college he would be much more highly rated.  Long is probably a 6^th or 7^th round pick at best but he’s going to stick on a team by proving he’s better than most of the guys hanging on at the end of the WR depth chart.  He has been looking for a home and once he gets on an NFL team they won’t want to let him go.

OT Andrew Donnal   Iowa – I had to throw one Iowa guy in here right?  Donnal is nowhere near the class of prospect that Brandon Scherff is but he can play in the NFL.  Iowa linemen do well and Donnal has the added benefit of the fact that for his first three years of playing he moved all over the line and played everywhere except center.  He was a pretty good RT his senior year and while he may not have the athleticism for that spot he might be able to hold it down in the right system.  Donnal can play OG on either side and his versatility gives him a leg up because teams need depth all and having Donnal may mean they need one less offensive lineman.  If a team like the Broncos is not able to address their RT spot early in the draft Donnal wouldn’t be a bad pick up late.

OL Jeremiah Poutasi Utah – Poutasi is an underclassman that has spent the past two seasons playing LT for the Utes but he’ll most likely have to slide inside to play in the pros.  At 6’5 329 lbs. he’s a mountain of a man and he has long arms which he uses well to envelope defenders.  He could play RT given his size and reach but he lacks footwork and athleticism but he should be ideal to line up inside and match up against some of the bigger, stronger DTs in the league.  Poutasi is a bit of a project but he could help right away inside and possible move out to RT in a pinch.  You can do much worse than this kid in the fifth round or later.

DB Jacoby Glenn   UCF – Glenn is only a third year sophomore so he’s very young and he hasn’t filled out his body yet.  I’m listing him as a DB and not a CB because I think his future could be as a FS.  Glenn is long and skinny but if he fills out his frame he could grow into a safety body.  He was an effective corner because of his great ballskills and competitive nature but he stays too high when backpedaling and doesn’t have a natural hip flip and that will hurt him in the NFL.  His coverage skills, ballskills and willingness to come up in run support would all be of great use as a FS he just needs to get a little bigger and stronger and that should come with age.

FS Gerod Holliman   Louisville – I’ve made it clear that the safety position is lacking high end talent and that’s why I looked to both Eric Rowe and Jacoby Glenn as guys that could switch to the position but there are a couple of guys I’d be willing to take a late round chance on and Holliman is one of them.  It is tough to ignore the 14 interceptions Holliman recorded last year and that makes him an intriguing prospect as a center field type safety it’s the other parts of his game that will drop him in the draft.  He has excellent anticipation and an ability to break on a ball that is uncanny but he gambles more than he should and he is a poor tackler.  He doesn’t wrap up enough and he takes horrible angles far too often allowing players to break big gains and that’s a no-no for a NFL free safety.  These are correctable issues but some guys have a hard time breaking these bad habits.

FS Derron Smith   Fresno St. – There are a number of things not to like about Smith; he’s small, not a great tackler and he too takes poor angles far too often, but still I like him if you’re grabbing him late in the draft.  He can play FS in the NFL due to his anticipation and willingness to come up in run support (even if he isn’t a sure tackler at least he’s willing).  He has good vision and above average coverage ability and against today’s pass happy offenses those are useful traits.

 

 

 

 

The NFL Draft changes for each team as they pick up players in free agency, lose players to other teams and cut players for salary cap purposes or otherwise.  At this time of year, after the combine and before the draft, players work out at their pro days and make visits to teams interested in them.  Some guys may skyrocket up the board due to a great pro day workout (WR Breshad Perriman) some guys may see their stock drop (QB Marcus Mariota) and other guys may get bad news from their combine drug test results that could seriously damage their draft prospects (DE Randy Gregory).  Major free agent pickups like DT Ndamukong Suh (Dolphins) and RB DeMarco Murray (Eagles) get fans excited but might not change the draft strategies of their teams because they weren’t looking to address those positions in the draft.  However, when a team like the Eagles picks up two new CBs (Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond III) it rearranges their draft priorities.  Some teams addressed obvious needs they can now bypass in draft; the Titans re-signed OLB Derrick Morgan and picked up OLB Brian Orakpo, the Jaguars signed DT Jared Odrick, the Falcons addressed their pass rush with DE Adrian Clayborn and OLBs Brooks Reed and O’Brien Schofield, the Rams traded for QB Nick Foles, the Vikings traded for WR Mike Wallace, the Browns signed WRs Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline and the 49ers signed WR Torrey Smith.  Just as these free agents fill a hole on one team they can create a hole on another the most notable ones that could be addressed in the first round of the draft are the Redskins losing OLB Brian Orakpo and the Ravens losing WR Torrey Smith.  It’s not just roster moves that change but the draft itself has changed as some picks have been traded, most of them are middle rounder choices but the #31 pick changed hands when the Seahawks sent it to the Saints as part of the deal for Jimmy Graham and while that may be the only one to address at this point other changes may take place.  Consider my Mock Draft 1.0 null and void and as soon as this one is published it will probably have the shelf life of about a week.

*The first seven picks haven’t changed but my reasoning has a little.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14): Jameis Winston QB   Florida St.

This pick has been Winston for quite a while and it seems as though it’s becoming more solidified by the day.  Winston spent three days visiting the Bucs back in February and he even had a clandestine meeting with the Commissioner and everything seems to be pointing to him making a good impression on everyone.  The talent to be a franchise QB is not in doubt and it seems as though he has quashed the fears that his off-the-field issues might stand in the way.  The one player that had a chance to steal the top spot was Oregon QB Marcus Mariota and while I’m loathe to believe a bad pro day will kill his stock as some have speculated he really needed to have an unbelievable workout to overtake Winston here.  A team that went 2-14 certainly has plenty of holes to fill but nothing is as important as getting a QB you believe can be a franchise changer.

2. Tennessee Titans (2-14): Leonard Williams DT   USC

Ken Whisenhunt’s recent assertion that he can see Marcus Mariota fitting into his offense is just a classic pre-draft smokescreen by a coach trying to drum up interest in a pick he would like to trade down from.  I’m also not inclined to believe the recent talk about this pick heading to the Chargers as part of a package for Phillip Rivers simply because I think both the idea of trading Rivers and Rivers’ supposed stand against moving to Los Angeles are both negotiating positions for the Chargers and Rivers respectively.  The Titans are unlikely to find anyone desperate enough to trade up and if they stay here they will take Leonard Williams the top prospect in this draft, sometimes it’s better not to try to outsmart yourself.  Williams is a stud that can line up anywhere on any defensive line in any formation and wreak havoc.  He’ll line up as a 3-4 DE and between him, the recently re-signed Derrick Morgan, free agent signee Brian Orakpo and holdover DE Jurrell Casey the Titans will hope to generate a real pass rush.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13): Dante Fowler Jr. OLB/DE   Florida

The Jaguars made three major free agent signings in DT Jared Odrick, TE Julius Thomas and RT Jermey Parnell.  While it was always unlikely that the Jags would grab a TE or a RT in this spot it does clear up their focus a bit.  The Jaguars still need a lot of help in the secondary but they really need a playmaker in their defensive front seven and Fowler is just the type of versatile player head coach Gus Bradley would love.  Both Fowler and Vic Beasley performed well at the combine and in my opinion they jumped ahead of Nebraska DE/OLB Randy Gregory but with the recent revelation that Gregory failed his combine drug test it’s a virtual certainty that Fowler and Beasley will go before him.  Fowler lined up at DE, OLB and even DT at times at Florida and he will be the perfect menace in Bradley’s defensive attack.

4. Oakland Raiders (3-13): Kevin White WR   West Virginia

The Raiders have plenty of holes to fill and offensive tackle and cornerback are major needs but the Raiders should probably just stick to best player available.  While players like OT Brandon Scherff and DE/OLB Vic Beasley are possibilities it seems far more likely that they will try to add a playmaker for second year QB Derek Carr.  The Raiders WR corps wasn’t exactly teeming with Pro Bowlers last year and now Andre Holmes, Rod Streater and Denarius Moore are all free agents that haven’t been re-signed leaving James Jones pretty lonely.  Amari Cooper is my top WR in the draft but Kevin White isn’t far behind him and many teams have him as the top guy and I think the Raiders will take a shot with White.  A superb athlete with incredible deep speed and great body control make White the type of WR that can make Carr into the franchise QB the Raiders have needed for a long time.  Carr did a pretty good job with a less than stellar supporting cast last season and Raiders fans have to be excited about the possibilities of what he could do with real NFL caliber talent around him.

5. Washington Redskins (4-12): Vic Beasley OLB   Clemson

The Redskins have spent most of their resources in free agency on the defensive side of the ball as they have added defensive linemen Terrance Knighton, Ricky-Jean Francois and Stephen Paea and CB Chris Culliver.  On the offensive side of the ball they absolutely need to address the RT position which would make OT Brandon Scherff a logical choice but they still have a major hole to fill on defense.  The loss of OLB Brian Orakpo to the Titans in free agency took away the Redskins most dynamic pass rusher even if he did have multiple injury problems that limited his availability.  Vic Beasley is the perfect combination of a guy who not only lit up the combine but jumps off the film when you scout him.  Beasley isn’t tall and lean like many great pass rushers but he has an electric first step and great burst that makes him dominating coming off the edge.  Beasley is too good to pass up and the Redskins defense needs him.

6. New York Jets (4-12): Marcus Mariota QB   Oregon

The Jets addressed a few major needs with a trade and through free agency.  They picked up WR Brandon Marshall for a fifth round pick and they signed CBs Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine and added safety Marcus Gilchrist meaning they overhauled almost their entire secondary.  The offensive line picked up a couple of decent players in James Carpenter and James Brewer but they could still upgrade at RT.  Even with the upgrade at WR with Marshall it’s hard to imagine the Jets have much faith in Geno Smith and the trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t going to solve the Jets QB problems.  Mariota’s pro day got mixed reviews and that usually happens when teams have an agenda, the teams that like him don’t have a problem with his performance and the teams that want to stay away from him use it as an excuse.  The Jets are sending a large contingent to Oregon to work Mariota out privately and this franchise needs him to show he can be the answer to their QB problems.  Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick are not going to keep the Jets from picking Mariota only Mariota can do that.

7. Chicago Bears (5-11): Danny Shelton NT   Washington

While most Bears fans are hoping they somehow replace Jay Cutler with anyone not named Jay Cutler that isn’t going to happen at this spot in the draft.  The Bears need help all over their defense as they transition to the 3-4 alignment favored by new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.  The addition of free agent DE Pernell McPhee was a nice move given his young age and familiarity with the 3-4 defense in Baltimore and while the addition of DE Ray McDonald is controversial given his past (domestic violence accusation) his fit in the Fangio’s scheme is flawless (he played under Fangio in San Francisco).  The Bears still have absolutely no one on the roster to fill the nose tackle position and those guys don’t grow on trees.  Trying to find one in free agency is virtually impossible so grabbing the best one available in Danny Shelton is a no-brainer.  Shelton is a big human being who shouldn’t be as athletic as he is at 6’2 339 lbs.  John Fox is a defensive minded head coach and he knows the value of a big run-stuffing NT in the middle of his defense, I can’t see him passing on Shelton.

8. Atlanta Falcons (6-10): Brandon Scherff OT   Iowa

This is the first change from my initial Mock Draft and it comes because of the moves made by the Falcons in free agency.  The Falcons defense has been toothless when it comes to pass rushing for too many years but instead of waiting for the draft they signed DE Adrian Clayborn, OLB O’Brien Schofield and OLB Brooks Reed this offseason.  Both Clayborn and Reed have disappointed as pass rushers with their initial teams but new head coach Dan Quinn will find a way to get to the QB with these guys.  The offensive line was a mess last year due to both injury and ineffectiveness so new blood would be welcome.  Quinn may have been a defensive coach in Seattle but he knows the value of a power running game and adding Brandon Scherff would go a long way to establishing the type of punishing ground game Seattle had.  Scherff could compete for the RT spot or move inside to guard but either way he could transform the Falcons in the trenches.  Best case scenario is Scherff is so good he pushed last year’s top pick Jake Matthews back to the right side, worst case scenario is Scherff becomes the next Marshall Yanda at OG (Yanda was the Offensive Lineman of the Year in the NFL last season).

9. New York Giants (6-10): Landon Collins SS   Alabama

Collins makes my first leap from his previous spot in my Mock Draft 1.0 (#22 overall) into the top 10.  It wasn’t because he wasn’t worthy of a higher pick before it was just the fact that safety tends to be a less valued position in the draft so he slipped.  The Giants have holes to fill at LB and on the o-line but Collins is more valuable than anyone at those positions left on the board and the Giants need at safety is overwhelming.  Antrel Rolle bolted to the Bears in free agency and Stevie Brown and Quintin Demps are both unsigned meaning the Giants are incredibly thin at the position.  Collins is an immediate starter and honestly a likely upgrade over all the safeties the Giants employed last season (even Rolle was starting to show his age).  The Giants are probably hoping Scherff falls here and they could take OLs La’el Collins or Andrus Peat, grab a LB like Shane Ray or fortify their WR position with Amari Cooper but Collins fills a huge need with a worthy player.

10. St. Louis Rams (6-10): Amari Cooper WR   Alabama

The Rams made one major move that overshadows anything they could do in free agency and that was trading their always injured QB Sam Bradford to the Eagles for QB Nick Foles and swapping some picks.  It’s pretty rare to see two NFL teams trade starting QBs for each other and even more surprising when one of them is injured as often as Bradford.  Regardless of the fact that the Rams re-signed WR Kenny Britt in free agency this team has been throwing darts trying to find a legitimate #1 WR for far too long and if Cooper is available they should sprint the card up to the podium because they will have finally found one.  Whether it’s Cooper, White or DeVante Parker if any of them are available the Rams should take them.  Cooper isn’t the physical presence a guy like Calvin Johnson is but he’s a magnificent WR who knows how to get open and would make Nick Foles a better QB.  Pairing Cooper with Britt on the outside and using Tavon Austin on the inside would open up the Rams passing attack and give Tre Mason some room to run.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-9): Trae Waynes CB   Michigan St.

Trading for Mike Wallace means the Vikings addressed their need for a deep threat playmaker and while I’m not a Wallace fan he should be an upgrade over Greg Jennings and he certainly lessens the need for a WR.  The Vikings also like WR Charles Johnson and it’s too soon to give up on Cordarrelle Patterson so they will look elsewhere.  They need a middle LB but it’s too early to grab Eric Kendricks so they go for the top talent at CB.  Trae Waynes has established himself as the top player at the position and he would offer a nice upgrade over Captain Munnerlyn or Josh Robinson opposite Xavier Rhodes.  They could grab either Randy Gregory or Shane Ray but they would probably be situational pass rushers at best and they sort of duplicate the skillset of last year’s top pick Anthony Barr.

12. Cleveland Browns (7-9): Shane Ray OLB   Missouri

I’ve been beating the “Browns must draft a WR” drum as much as anyone but they signed Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline in free agency and while those aren’t the most thrilling moves they are an upgrade over what the Browns had.  Bowe needs to respond to the change of scenery and Hartline is a solid yet unspectacular WR but they certainly lessen the need for a WR right here.  Ray did fine in his workout at Missouri’s pro day but he didn’t really do anything to move himself ahead of Fowler or Beasley.  He moves ahead of Randy Gregory for me because of the revelation that Gregory failed his drug test at the combine, it’s not a secret Gregory smoked marijuana but it calls into question if he can really stop the habit or how bad his habit was that it wasn’t clear of his system before the combine.  It also seems unlikely the Browns would go near a guy with marijuana issues given the whole Josh Gordon fiasco.  Ray is a talented pass rusher and he fits the OLB role in a 3-4 defense best where the Browns have Paul Kruger, who isn’t much of a pass rusher, and Barkevious Mingo who hasn’t proven all that effective either.   Ray should be able to bring some pressure off the edge and help the Browns defense from day one.

13. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Randy Gregory OLB   Nebraska

The Saints re-signed RB Mark Ingram and signed free agent RB CJ Spiller, they traded away TE Jimmy Graham and WR Kenny Stills, they got back LB Dannell Ellerbe in the Stills trade and C Max Unger in the Graham trade but they sent OG Ben Grubbs packing.  Yeah I don’t know what they are doing either.  They really regressed last year on the defensive side of the ball and they really only got pressure on the QB from two guys, DE Cameron Jordan and OLB Junior Galette.  Galette has some legal issues to deal with and even if he is completely cleared to play the Saints need help at OLB.  Gregory has taken responsibility for his marijuana issues and his failed test at the combine so it’s unlikely to send him into a free fall but it will cost him a few spots in the draft which is why he’s available here.  The Saints have a pretty veteran team and seem equipped to handle a guy that needs some guidance so Gregory should be fine.

14. Miami Dolphins (8-8): DeVante Parker WR   Louisville

The Dolphins imported the biggest get in free agency both literally and figuratively with the massive contract for Ndamukong Suh and while he replaces the departed Jared Odrick they still have issues at LB and CB but those can be addressed later.  After trading Mike Wallace, cutting Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson and only importing Kenny Stills the Dolphins need help at WR.  WR Jarvis Landry was very good down the stretch last year but he is most effective in the slot meaning they need someone outside opposite Kenny Stills.  Stills is a nice deep threat but he’s not big at only 6’0 tall Parker on the other hand is 6’3 and plays even bigger.  The Dolphins also signed TE Jordan Cameron hoping he’s over his concussion problems and if they add Parker to the group of Stills, Cameron and Landry they might just give Ryan Tannehill a fighting chance to succeed as a QB in the NFL.

15. San Francisco 49ers (8-8): Arik Armstead DE   Oregon

The 49ers seem to be treading water this offseason.  The signed Torrey Smith but let Michael Crabtree walk, they signed Reggie Bush (presumably to complement Carlos Hyde) after letting Frank Gore go to Indianapolis.  They didn’t spend the money to keep OG Mike Iupati but brought in veteran OL Eric Pears.  They signed 34 year old DE Darnell Dockett but are likely to lose DE Justin Smith to retirement.  They have taken major hits to the LB corps with the retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland and are hoping Navarro Bowman can regain his form.  After all that they need really need some help on the defensive line because after they released Ray McDonald last season because of his issues if they lose Justin Smith they have zero depth at DE.  Armstead is the purest 3-4 DE in the draft and he can make a huge difference because of his size and athleticism but he won’t be enough to turn the whole defense around.  They could go CB with either Jalen Collins or Marcus Peters or grab another WR but Armstead is too good of a fit at a major area of need to pass on.

16. Houston Texans (9-7): Alvin “Bud” Dupree OLB   Kentucky

The Texans made a few free agent moves that will affect their draft strategy this year.  They re-signed QB Ryan Mallet and signed free agent QB Brian Hoyer two guys that Bill O’Brien is quite familiar with and it probably means O’Brien will put off drafting a QB another year or two which is perfect because that’s probably when his former Penn St. QB Christian Hackenberg will be available.  The signed NT Vince Wilfork who is a nice stop-gap measure to hold down that position for a year and they filled a huge need in the secondary with FS Rahim Moore from the Broncos.  Unfortunately last year’s #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney did virtually nothing last year due to injury and had microfracture surgery on his troublesome knee.  Bud Dupree is the sort of freakish athlete Clowney was supposed to be only without the hype.  Dupree would make a very good pass rushing OLB with great size to take some pressure off of JJ Watt and even if Clowney makes a full recovery the other OLB Whitney Mercilus is coming close to the end of his rookie deal and hasn’t been the type of pass rusher the Texans envisioned.  Dupree is great value and fills a need.

17. San Diego Chargers (9-7): Andrus Peat OT   Stanford

The Chargers re-signed a couple of key free agents in LT King Dunlap and CB Brandon Flowers but they have also lost a couple of guys out of their secondary in S Marcus Gilchrist and CB Shareece Wright.  The Chargers already have last year’s rookie Jason Verrett to cover the loss of Wright and there isn’t a safety available to replace Gilchrist.  They could certainly use some help in the front seven on defense but there are more pressing needs on offense.  This could be a spot where a first round RB get picked because after losing the oft-injured Ryan Mathews to the Eagles the Chargers don’t have anyone to trust to be their full-time RB.  However, after adding free agent OG Orlando Franklin the Chargers could really solidify their offensive line by grabbing Andrus Peat here.  RT DJ Fluker hasn’t flourished on the outside but he would make a serious upgrade inside at guard if the Chargers take Peat and slide him in at RT.  RBs Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are certainly possible here but there is great depth at the RB position and a second or third round RB would look a lot better behind a line featuring Peat at RT and Fluker inside at guard.

18. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): La’el Collins OL   LSU

The Chiefs are the team everyone wants to give a WR to in the first round of the draft and when you’re the first team to go an entire season without a TD pass to a WR since the invention of the forward pass it makes sense.  Rebuilding the WR corps is a must and there is great talent available but Andy Reid just signed Jeremy Maclin in free agency and he’s a huge upgrade over the now jettisoned Dwayne Bowe so that’s a start.  However, Andy Reid knows that he needs a good running game with Alex Smith as his QB and while he has great talent at RB with Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis the offensive line needs an upgrade.  Collins might not last this long and while his versatility is a strength it might hurt him that he isn’t a natural at any one position.  He’s probably best suited inside at guard and the Chiefs could use him there but he could also beat out Donald Stephenson at RT and he’s great insurance if Eric Fisher doesn’t pan out at LT.  Andy Reid has always known that you win games in the trenches and Collins is the type of guy you love to have on your side.

19. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo 9-7): Jaelen Strong WR   Arizona St.

Letting Brian Hoyer walk and replacing him with Josh McCown is like trading in three of a kind for two pair in a poker game, it’s only a slight downgrade but neither one is likely to win very often.  Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline are upgrades to the Browns WR corps but that’s more of an indictment of the Browns WR corps than a compliment to Bowe and Hartline.  Bowe had some good years in Kansas City but it’s been a while since he scared anyone and Hartline has caught a lot of passes before but he’s a limited player.  Jaelen Strong is an excellent WR with great physicality and he showed surprising speed at the combine.  Strong wouldn’t have to become the go-to guy right away with Bowe, Hartline and Andrew Hawkins around but he’d be the most talented WR on the roster and if the Browns could get any production from either McCown or Johnny Manziel Strong could become a top-flight WR.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Dorial Green-Beckham WR   Oklahoma/Missouri

Chip Kelly has taken over as the final authority on the Eagles roster and it seems like he isn’t waiting around to change things up.  He sent 75% of his starting secondary packing and brought in Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond III as his new CBs.  He let Jeremy Maclin walk a year after showing DeSean Jackson the door and he traded LeSean McCoy and signed the league’s leading rusher DeMarco Murray as his replacement.  All of that takes a backseat to the roll of the dice he took by trading his starting QB Nick Foles for new starting QB Sam Bradford.  Kelly is putting a lot of eggs in Bradford’s basket so getting him some WR help makes sense.  Jordan Matthews had a nice rookie year but he’s best suited playing in the slot meaning an outside WR like Dorial Green-Beckham would fit well.  Kelly doesn’t seem like the type to shy away from a controversial pick and while Green-Beckham has plenty of off the field question marks he is a supremely talented WR.  If Chip Kelly can find a way to keep Green-Beckham on the straight and narrow he could do wonders with his immense talent.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1): TJ Clemmings OT   Pittsburgh

The Bengals have a few needs but none of them are pressing.  They could use some help at LB given Rey Maualuga’s limitations and Vontaze Burfict’s injury, they could get a little younger in the secondary and they could also look to replace Damato Peko at DT.  There really isn’t a LB worth this spot unless they really love Eric Kendricks and they just spent a first round pick at CB last year so unless they are enamored with Jalen Collins or Marcus Peters that can probably wait.  Last season RT Andre Smith ended up on IR and while Eric Winston was a solid replacement he’s coming to the end of the line.  LT Andrew Whitworth has been a rock but he’s 34 years old so OT is a good place to look.  Clemmings is a player with tremendous upside because he hasn’t always been an offensive lineman so he’s still learning.  He can play in place of Smith if he’s not healed from his injury and he’s good long-term solution at LT but he wouldn’t have to be thrown into the fire right away there.  Having Whitworth and Winston around to learn from is also a pretty good environment for a guy that is still pretty green at the position.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): Jalen Collins CB   LSU

The Steelers need to get younger on the defensive side of the ball and that is most obvious in the secondary.  Almost everyone is hoping SS Troy Polamalu retires simply because he can’t play up to the level he used to and no one wants to see him try to play in another uniform (we all went through this with Ed Reed when he left the Ravens, it wasn’t pretty).  Ike Taylor has been let go finally, William Gay is 30 years old and wasn’t that great to begin with and Cortez Allen lost his starting spot last year and only has it back right now because the Steelers have so little at CB.  An infusion of youth and talent in the form of Jalen Collins would be a welcome addition in the Steele City.  Collins doesn’t have a lot of starting experience under his belt but he has everything you look for in top-flight corner and if there is one thing the Steelers know how to do is teach defense.

23. Detroit Lions (11-5): Ereck Flowers OT   Miami

Everyone is aware that the Lions lost both starting DTs in Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley and they also lost back up CJ Mosley.  They also have an aging starting CB in Rashean Mathis that they could replace but their offensive line needs some attention too.  The depth at the DT position along with the addition of Haloti Ngata in a trade means the Lions can afford to address the offensive line issues in the first round and grab a DT in the second.  They need a RT to play opposite LT Riley Reiff and Ereck Flowers is just that guy.  He’s big, powerful and while he needs some work in pass protection he will be a huge upgrade over anyone currently on the roster.  The Lions could grab a DT like Carl Davis, Malcolm Brown or Eddie Goldman or even take a CB like Marcus Peters but Flowers is better value here and the combination of Flowers and a second round DT is better than one of those guys and whatever OT they might get in the second round.

24. Arizona Cardinals (11-5): Todd Gurley RB   Georgia

If I were advising the Cardinals I would tell them to pull the trigger on QB Brett Hundley out of UCLA simply because Carson Palmer is on his last legs and last year was a disaster when he went down with an injury.  They probably won’t do that because they want to take a shot while they have Palmer and while they have a good WR corps they need some help in the backfield.  RB Andre Ellington can be a special weapon but he simply isn’t built to carry the load in the running game which is why he got hurt last season.  Todd Gurley on the other hand is the perfect complement to Ellington because he was born to do the heavy lifting.  Gurley is the closest thing to Marshawn Lynch’s Beast Mode you’ll find and with the addition of OG Mike Iupati in free agency the Cardinals running game could go to a whole new level.  Gurley would also bring the added benefit of taking the offensive load off of Carson Palmer and the passing game.

25. Carolina Panthers (7-8-1): Kevin Johnson CB   Wake Forest

The Panthers desperately need an OT even with the free agent signings of Michael Oher (who should start at RT) and Jonathan Martin (who shouldn’t start at all).  LT Nathan Chandler isn’t great but I think by the time the draft rolls around the Panthers will have figured out what I already know and that is that DJ Humphries is overrated.  A lot of people will have the Panthers taking a WR and with Breshad Perriman’s blazing 40 time at his pro day this is probably going to become a popular spot for him but they have bigger needs.  Their starting CBs are Josh Norman and Bene’ Benwikere which means if there is a possible starter left on the board they should take him.  Kevin Johnson doesn’t get the notice of Trae Waynes or Marcus Peters but he’s a very good cover guy and he’s just down the road at Wake Forest.  Johnson is the first rounder no one is talking about and while OT and WR are needs the Carolina defense has a crying need for an upgrade at CB.

26. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Breshad Perriman WR   Central Florida

Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta are the personnel guys calling the shots in Baltimore and they are two of the best when it comes to the draft.  They have largely built and sustained the Ravens success with good draft after good draft but there is one notable exception on their record, they have been terrible at drafting WRs.  The one good WR they drafted is Torrey Smith and they just let him leave for San Francisco because he’s a pretty one-dimensional player and they were smart enough not to overpay him to stay.  The problem now is they have the aging Steve Smith and not much else to speak of at WR.  When you invest $100 million in your QB it’s usually a good idea to give him someone to throw to so in comes Perriman.  Perriman didn’t work out at the combine because he was rehabbing an injury so his pro day was very important and whether he officially or unofficially ran a 4.22 40 really doesn’t matter because it was certainly under the 4.25-4.3 range and that is blazing fast.  Perriman has good size, great speed and probably is a better all-around WR than Torrey Smith.  Let’s hope the Ravens poor record of drafting WRs doesn’t jinx him.

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-4): Malcolm Brown DT   Texas

The signing of free agent DE Greg Hardy is certainly controversial but from a purely football standpoint it addresses the biggest need on the Cowboys roster.  With Hardy and a 100% Demarcus Lawrence the Cowboys hope to be able to generate some pass rush off the edge.  However, that doesn’t solve all of their problems on the defensive line as they need some help at DT.  Brown is the type of quick penetrating tackle the Cowboys need and adding him, Hardy and a healthy Lawrence would go a long way towards curing a longtime ill in Dallas.  The Cowboys could certainly use some help at LB as they hope for a healthy return of Sean Lee after the free agent losses of Bruce Carter, Justin Durant and probably Rolando McClain.  A lot of mock drafts have the Cowboys taking a RB and while Melvin Gordon is a distinct possibility I think the Cowboys can find a RB later in the draft.  They once found a guy named DeMarco Murray in the third round.

28. Denver Broncos (12-4): Eddie Goldman DT   Florida St.

I had the Broncos taking TE Maxx Williams before and with the loss of Julius Thomas that might still make sense except new head coach Gary Kubiak brought in a favorite of his, Owen Daniels, as a stop-gap and they re-signed Virgil Green.  They did lose DT Terrance Knighton and they are woefully thin at the position right now.  Goldman isn’t a finished product just yet but he’s 6’4 336 lbs. which means he can come in right away and plug up the middle.  The Broncos have to address the DT position and probably more than once in this draft along with middle LB, RT and probably DE.  The change to Kubiak’s offense means they may look for different kind of offensive lineman and they can probably find them a little later in the draft.  They likely only have one more year of the Manning era but Kubiak will use that year to decide if he likes Brock Osweiler as his future QB or if he drafts one next year, I doubt Kubiak is enamored with much from this year’s draft class.

29. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Melvin Gordon RB   Wisconsin

After the signing of Frank Gore I had every intention of changing this pick in my draft until I looked at everything the Colts have done this offseason.  No team has signed more players they expect to contribute this offseason than the Colts; RB Frank Gore, WR Andre Johnson, WR Duron Carter, OG Todd Herremans, OLB Trent Cole, ILB Nate Irving and DE Kendall Langford.  The only major weakness left in the starting lineup is at safety and the Colts aren’t finding a starting safety unless Landon Collins falls a very long way in the draft.  When your roster only needs depth you look for the best available player and while they may need defensive line or inside linebacker depth more Melvin Gordon is too good to pass up.  Frank Gore doesn’t have a lot of time left in his career and Gordon would be a nice complement to him this year and can be his eventual replacement down the road.

30. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Eric Kendricks ILB   UCLA

The Packers have a few glaring needs and they are all possibilities here.  They need a NT, an ILB and they could use a TE and while taking Maxx Williams would be nice they really need to address their defense.  This pick comes down to a choice between the next defensive tackle, either Jordan Phillips or Carl Davis or grabbing the best ILB in the draft Eric Kendricks. The hole at ILB is substantial because they need two of them to replace AJ Hawk and Brad Jones because they really should move Clay Matthews back outside.  Kendricks is used to playing in a 3-4 defensive system and he will excel at ILB for the Pack.  This would be a homerun pick for Green Bay as Kendricks is a perfect schematic fit and is ready to step in from day one, for a team that is competing for the Super Bowl that’s a nice piece to find late in the first round.

31. New Orleans Saints (from Seattle 12-4): Maxx Williams TE   Minnesota

As I said earlier I have no idea what the Saints are doing but looking at the re-signing of Mark Ingram and adding CJ Spiller in free agency and C Max Unger in a trade it seems like the Saints want to run the ball more.  Williams is the best TE in this draft and while he won’t replace Jimmy Graham in the passing game (there is no one who will) he is still a solid weapon catching the ball and a good blocker in the running game.  Graham never excelled as a blocker but Williams time in Minnesota’s run based offense means he should make an easy transition.  Williams will become a better pass catcher playing with Drew Brees and the Saints would fill a need with him here.

32. New England Patriots (12-4): Marcus Peters CB   Washington

Bill Belichick’s track record of drafting CBs early in the draft is abysmal which is why the two starting CBs in the Super Bowl for the Patriots were free agent signees; Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.  It’s a great story the little known and little used Malcolm Butler was the hero of the game with his timely interception but counting on him to step into a larger role is asking for trouble.  Drafting Marcus Peters might be trouble too given his issues at Washington but he seems to have made amends and his talent is undeniable.  Peters didn’t have a great combine which is why I have Jalen Collins and Kevin Johnson moving ahead of him in this mock draft.  Peters is the best pure cover corner in this draft and while he doesn’t run as fast as Trae Waynes and he isn’t the superior athlete Jalen Collins is he might be the guy making the biggest impact next season while starting for the Patriots.

 

 

 

I have to take a little time out of my  NFL draft prep, and yes I’m working on my Mock Draft 2.0 (BTW if anyone wants to go to the Draft in Chicago with me let me know, seriously I want to go and I need some company) but I had to acknowledge the Iowa Hawkeye Men’s basketball team.  Quick caveat, I don’t watch women’s basketball but I’m really happy for Lisa Bluder and the women’s team for making it to their first Sweet 16 since…well a really long time ago.  Back to the guy’s.  Fran McCaffery led the men’s team to their first NCAA tournament win since 2001 and accomplished something that looked almost impossible five years ago during the darkest days of the Lickliter era. Back in the day when little John Lickliter was getting minutes on his dad’s team the NIT seemed like an impossible dream let alone an NCAA bid.  The Hawkeyes came up short against an incredible Gonzaga team in their quest to make the Sweet 16 but it doesn’t diminished what McCaffrey has accomplished.

This year’s Hawkeye team was trying to replace one of the best players in school history Devyn Marble.  Many believed that the Hawkeyes couldn’t overcome losing such a huge part of the team especially since Marble was the top scorer and go-to guy.  At the beginning of the season it looked like people might be right because Iowa didn’t seem to have that alpha dog type of player to take over a game when need be and then Aaron White rose to the challenge.  White has always been a solid player but he has limits to his game (he’s not a good 3-pt shooter and his post up game had never been his strong suit).  White decided that his shortcomings didn’t matter and he learned to play to his strengths (he also improved his post up game considerably, his 3-pt shooting is still iffy).  He is far more athletic than he gets credit for and the backdoor lob became every Hawkeye fan’s favorite play.  The last half of the conference season and the first game of the NCAA tournament Aaron White imposed his will on the opponent and made sure this regular season didn’t end like last year’s regular season.  White became the leader the Hawkeyes needed and I thank him for that.  Senior Gabe Olaseni has come farther than any Hawkeye in the last 4 years and he has a future playing basketball professionally and that’s incredible considering how raw he was when McCaffery recruited him.  He became a huge part of the Hawkeye team and he won Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year and he couldn’t be more deserving.  He embraced his role off the bench and never felt slighted even when Adam Woodbury struggled yet remained the starter.  While I’ve never been Aaron White’s biggest fan it’s possible you could say I’ve been Josh Oglesby’s worst critic and if you’re expecting me to apologize don’t hold your breath.  Oglesby never became the shooter his reputation would have you believe he is and while McCaffery saw some reason to keep playing him I’ve never figured out why.  That said, you can’t find fault in Oglesby’s effort and the kid never did anything to make you think he isn’t a true Hawkeye and I guess it’s nice when there is a reminder that sometimes 4 years of eligibility is enough.  The final senior is the guy nobody ever heard of but the guy who got the loudest cheer from his teammates when he hit a late three at the end of the blowout of Davidson last Friday, Kyle Denning. Denning was a walk-on until his final season with the Hawkeyes and he really only received a scholarship because McCaffery had one left over for the year.  He gave it to Denning as a reward for sticking it out with this team and going through all of the practices, film sessions and giving up all of his time to be a part of the team.  I loved watching him hit that three in the NCAA tournament because that’s a memory he gets to have for the rest of his life and I love those stories.

I know there are people out there who believe Iowa will take a step back next season because of the loss of Aaron White, Gabe Olaseni and well, maybe Josh Oglesby but I don’t see it happening.  Fran McCaffery has built something here and I believe it’s not only sustainable but it’s just the beginning.  Everywhere McCaffery has coached his teams have improved each year he was there and that is true of Iowa.  The difference is that this used to be the time that McCaffery would move on to a bigger job after turning around the program.  McCaffery isn’t leaving Iowa anytime soon so Hawkeye fans get to see what comes next.  While he may be losing 3 seniors who contributed heavily his team next year he will return 4 starters (Mike Gesell, Peter Jok, Jarrod Uthoff and Adam Woodbury) along with part-time starter Anthony Clemmons and true freshman Dom Uhl.  Shooting guard Brady Ellingson redshirted this season due to injury and he will hopefully add some outside shooting help this team needs.  Next year’s team will need someone to step into White’s leadership role and take on the go-to player role and that guy is Jarrod Uthoff.  Uthoff took quite a step this year and became the secondary scorer behind White and he had a few games where he took over.  It’s been fun watching Uthoff grow and I can’t wait to see him embrace his role as top dog in the offense because he has some moves that are absolutely unstoppable (his turnaround jump shot is deadly).  He can be a lockdown defender and he’s one of the best weakside shot-blockers I’ve ever seen.  Uthoff can be a special player and all he has to do is believe it.  The other player that has to step up next season is Peter Jok.  Jok can be a deadly scorer and the quantum leap he took from his freshman year to his sophomore year was impressive.  He still makes mistakes and he can be frustratingly boneheaded from time to time but the more he plays the better he’ll be and McCaffery has shown just how good of a coach he is when it comes to developing talent.  Jok has a chance to be one of McCaffery’s finest projects.  Mike Gesell and Adam Woodbury are two tough, hard-nosed players that aren’t flashy and don’t get a ton of credit but they play the two most important positions on the court and they set the tone for the team.  It’s only fitting because Gesell and Woodbury were the two major 4-star prospects that McCaffery got that seemed to give him some legitimacy when he first came to Iowa.  They were a caliber of recruit that the Hawkeyes just weren’t able to get until McCaffery got here.  It’s hard to believe they are going to be seniors but those two helped turn around the team not only on the court but in recruiting also.  Anthony Clemmons is another senior-to-be that showed quite a bit of character by not being the guy who got upset and transferred like so many college players these days but stuck it out and became an important piece of the Hawkeyes.  Clemmons backs-up Gesell at point guard and also plays alongside him at times, he’s become a fantastic on-the-ball defender and he actually found his outside shot late in the year.  Freshman Dom Uhl gave the Hawkeyes some valuable minutes as a backup to Aaron White and Jarrod Uthoff at forward and he has some great potential.  I think Uhl  becomes a starter next season in White’s place and he will excel.  He won’t be asked to replace White’s production offensively (that’s Uthoff’s job) but he can play great defense, get rebounds and maybe he can learn the backdoor lob play, unless that becomes Uthoff’s too.  Redshirt Freshman Brady Ellingson played sparingly early in the season as he was coming off an injury he sustained in high school but when it became obvious he wasn’t completely healed and he wasn’t going to break into the rotation McCaffery shut him down for the year to let him completely recover and now he’ll have his chance to become the outside shooting specialist Oglesby was supposed to be.

McCaffery also will be bringing in a recruiting class that I think can pay immediate dividends.  Shooting guard Andrew Fleming should also bring in some long-range shooting and he and Ellingson can compete for those minutes.  Guard/Forward Isaiah Moss was a bit under the radar until he broke out this season and became a pretty good scoring threat.  As a wing player who can attack the basket Moss should find some playing time as a scoring threat off the bench if nothing more, and I actually expect more.  Small Forward Brandon Hutton is my favorite recruit because at 6’6 and about 200 lbs. Hutton is the type of power athlete Iowa hasn’t had in a very long time.  Hutton is also a lockdown defender who can guard anyone from point guards to power forwards.  He probably won’t be a major scoring threat right away but he’s going to be the designated stopper on defense.  Power Forward Ahmad Wagner is only 6’7 so that’s not tall for a power forward but he’s 215 lbs. with a solid build and great athleticism.  If he can be a Melsahn Basabe type of player that would be fine by me.  The latest commit is Christian Williams a 6’5 point guard out of Illinois that people can’t help but compare to Devyn Marble, I see why, it’s an easy comparison to make.  Williams is a long smooth athlete and his point guard skillset with that height make the Marble comparison inevitable.  McCaffery has one more scholarship to give and as of right now the odds-on favorite is a junior college transfer from Tyler, TX named Dale Jones.  Jones is a 6’8 power forward, originally from Waterloo, that shoots very well from 3-pt range, imagine an Aaron White type of guy that can actually hit the three.  I have to give McCaffery major kudos for breaking into Illinois in a big way this recruiting cycle.  Hutton, Moss and Williams are all Illinois kids and one way for McCaffery to sustain the success he’s already achieved at Iowa and build on it would be to establish a recruiting pipeline into Illinois.

The idea of adding these 6 newcomers to the 7 players already on the roster makes me quite confident that the Hawkeyes can sustain the momentum they have created under McCaffery and I’m actually excited about the team next year.  It’s taken time but I like the way McCaffery has built the Iowa program over the last five years and I think the future is bright for the Hawkeyes.

This year’s draft hinges on where Marcus Mariota ends up going.  It seems as though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are leaning towards drafting Jameis Winston first overall so the fun begins at #2.  The Tennessee Titans could use a QB because no one is exactly sure what they have in last year’s rookie Zack Mettenberger.  Mariota might be worth the #2 overall pick but not to the Titans.  I can’t imagine a worse fit for Mariota than Ken Whisenhunt’s offense.  Mettenberger fits much better because he is a big strong-armed pocket passer, the antithesis of Mariota.  There are rumors swirling that Eagles head coach Chip Kelly is going to mortgage the future to move up and grab Mariota, his former Oregon QB, and that might be what’s best for Mariota’s immediate future but probably not optimal for the Eagles given what they would have to give up to move up from #20.

This draft is loaded with pass rushers and wide receivers and is short on QBs, TEs and safeties.  We might actually see a first round RB go for the first time in three years and it could be more than one.  The combine shuffled the deck a bit especially with the pass rushers and a little with the WRs.  As always my mock draft is part prediction, part critical assessment and part advice.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14) Jameis Winston   QB   Florida St.

Unless Winston has another run in with the law between now and the draft it’s looking like the Buccaneers are going to roll the dice on his enormous potential.  I’m not sure becoming a professional football player and overnight millionaire is going to help Winston’s character issues (it hasn’t been a rousing success for Johnny Football) but his on the field skills are too enticing to pass up.  Coach Lovie Smith and GM Jason Licht are staking their jobs on Winston keeping his nose clean and living up to the hype.  The Bucs QB situation was a disaster last year and no matter how many times Smith claims Mike Glennon can be a franchise QB I’m still not buying it.  Glennon looks like a solid trade candidate for one of the teams that needs a QB but can’t get their hands on Winston, Mariota or Brett Hundley in the draft.  The Buccaneers have two alternative candidates they can look at here with Mariota being the obvious one.  Mariota needs more time to adjust to a pro offense but his character is not a question mark.  The other alternative is the top overall prospect in this draft USC DT Leonard Williams, while the Buccaneers need a DE more than a DT Williams is a special talent.  If they take him and line him up inside next to Gerald McCoy they would have the best set of DTs in the NFL.  At this point only Winston can stop himself from going #1 overall but doing something stupid is not out of the question.

2. Tennessee Titans (2-14) Leonard Williams   DT   USC

The Titans sit in the driver’s seat of the draft and they could go many different ways.  If Tennessee wants to load up on picks to help turn over their very thin roster they can shop this pick to whomever might want to move up for Marcus Mariota or even to someone desperate to grab Leonard Williams.  If they stay here Williams is too good to pass up.  While he doesn’t look like a natural fit in their 3-4 defense because he’s more of a DT Williams is versatile enough to play the five-technique DE position and do it quite well.  Every 3-4 team is looking for their JJ Watt and while that’s a lot to ask Williams skillset might actually make him the league’s next best thing.  Williams is an incredible athlete for a man his size and he can actually rush the passer no matter where he is lined up.  He’s not likely to approach Watt’s sack numbers, it’s asking a lot of anyone especially another 3-4 end, but he’ll give the Titans more pass rush than they have had.  As I mentioned I think Mariota is a bad fit for Ken Whisenhunt because Whisenhunt’s successes have come with QB’s like Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner and Phillip Rivers and that just isn’t Mariota.  Philadelphia would have to give up a lot to move up here given they are sitting at #20 overall in this draft but a team like the Jets or Rams might be able to make a play for this spot if they want Mariota and aren’t willing to see if he’ll fall.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13) Dante Fowler Jr.   OLB   Florida

The first team in the draft that doesn’t need a QB is the Jaguars.  They seem to be fairly satisfied with year one of Blake Bortles and if they can get him a little help on the offensive line and a little health with his skill position guys (Denard Robinson and Marquis Lee) they may actually have a functional offense.  The defense wasn’t nearly as bad last year as it could have been as Gus Bradley did a nice job of finding a pass rush with some veteran additions.  Bradley still needs talent on defense at every level and while the secondary could really use some help there isn’t a prospect in the secondary worthy of the #3 overall pick.  Dante Fowler Jr. is a versatile defender that can bring a great pass rush and a nasty attitude to Bradley’s defense.  Fowler was a fringe top 10 pick going into the combine but his impressive showing moved him up and right now he looks like a top 5 pick that fits what the Jaguars want to do.  Fowler can play LB, bring the pass rush and line-up all over the defense.  He came in at 261 lbs. at the combine and still ran a 4.60 40 which got everyone’s attention.  Bradley will know just what to do with Fowler to make the most of his talent.

4. Oakland Raiders (3-13) Kevin White   WR   West Virginia

I’ve made it clear I’m an Amari Cooper fan but it’s hard to ignore the performance of Kevin White at the combine.  White is a freak athlete who doubles as a very talented WR.  A 6’3 215 lbs. WR with 4.35 speed and a 36 ½ inch vertical leap is tough to forget and he would make a fantastic weapon for 2^nd year QB Derek Carr.  Carr had a pretty solid rookie season and he didn’t have skill position talent like White around him at all.  Pairing White with James Jones and the possibility of a free agent TE or RB would really accelerate the development of Carr and the Raiders offense.  Cooper is the more polished prospect and if I were the Raider’s GM I’d pick him but the Raiders are a team that shoots for the moon and White’s ceiling is incredibly high.  New head coach Jack Del Rio is a defensive coach so he may want a defensive player but GM Reggie McKenzie is trying to hold on to his job and the best way to do that is prove that he made the right call drafting Carr last year to be the franchise QB which means doing everything possible to make sure he succeeds.

5. Washington Redskins (4-12) Vic Beasley   OLB   Clemson

The Redskins’ Robert Griffin induced break from the first round has mercifully come to an end and it has landed them at #5 overall so it hasn’t been a rousing success.  They need help on the offensive line which means Brandon Scherff could be in play here but their defense has been pretty bad and they are about to lose OLB Brian Orakpo to free agency and they need another pass rusher opposite Ryan Kerrigan.  Beasley came into the draft process as a highly productive player with some physical question marks, namely was he big enough to be an effective NFL player.  He rolled into the combine measuring in at 6’3 246 lbs. (about 20 lbs. over his college playing weight), ran a blistering 4.53 40 time and ripped off 35 reps on the bench press, questions answered.  Beasley is the highest riser in the draft at the moment and he will be an immediate impact player for the Redskins.  He is a game-changing talent and too good to pass up, unless new GM Scott McCloughan decides to cut bait on RGIII and grab Marcus Mariota instead (that’s not going to happen unless Dan Snyder is locked in a box somewhere on draft day).

6. New York Jets (4-12) Marcus Mariota   QB   Oregon

The Jets have Geno Smith and Matt Simms on the roster and free agent Michael Vick is not expected back to say they need a franchise QB is an understatement.  Mariota is the type of guy that can handle the New York media and he isn’t the type of guy to end up in the gossip columns the issue is whether or not Mariota can become a pro QB.  The fact that the Jets have a new coach in Todd Bowles means he has time to develop a QB if he so chooses.  The Jets could go with a veteran from the trade market but given the free agent market is less than stellar Mariota is the pick here.  The Jets could use some help on the offensive line, at WR, possibly at RB and they do need to get a little younger on defense at LB so they could go a number of ways or they could dial up Chip Kelly and extract as many draft picks from him as possible if Mariota is still available.

7. Chicago Bears (5-11) Danny Shelton   NT   Washington

New head coach John Fox brought in former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to fix the Bears horrific defense.  Fangio runs a 3-4 scheme and the Bears have virtually no one in their front seven that fits into a 3-4 scheme.  Jared Allen is a 4-3 DE and is too old to learn new tricks, DT’s Will Sutton, Ego Ferguson and Stephen Paea aren’t big enough to be NTs and not long enough to be five-technique DE, last year’s free agent addition Willie Young might be able to transition to an Aldon Smith-like OLB but that’s a stretch.  This massive overhaul has to start somewhere and getting a gigantic NT to put up front is a nice place to start.  Danny Shelton isn’t winning any foot races but he’s a force lined up over the center and they don’t make a lot of 6’2 339 lbs. human beings with his skills so the Bears should grab him while they can.  While I’m not usually in favor of making a transition from one defensive style to another when you have almost no one that fits the new style the Bears defense was so bad last season that even if they kept the 4-3 alignment they need an almost complete overhaul of their front seven personnel anyway so they might as well change now.

8. Atlanta Falcons (6-10) Randy Gregory   DE/OLB   Nebraska

The Falcons haven’t had a good edge rusher since the days of John Abraham and new head coach Dan Quinn knows the value of a good defense.  Gregory slips a little because Fowler and Beasley were both big and fast at the combine while Gregory was good but came in a little light.  Quinn will likely run a multiple front defense where Gregory can line up as a hand-on-the-ground DE in certain situations or as a standup LB in others.  He had a similar player in Seattle in Bruce Irvin so he will understand how to use him.  The Falcons offensive line had many issues last season and it would be perfectly understandable if they address it here.  With new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan bringing in the zone-blocking scheme he’s used to using drafting Brandon Scherff wouldn’t be the worst idea.  Scherff is familiar with zone-blocking and he could pair with last year’s first round pick Jake Matthews to make a nice set of bookend tackles for Matt Ryan.  As good of a fit as I think Scherff could be here I think Quinn wants an impact defender and that’s what he’ll likely get.

9. New York Giants (6-10) Brandon Scherff   OT   Iowa

The Giants built their two most recent Super Bowl teams (according to history, I don’t recall those games) on their incredible pass rush and that is something missing from this team.  Add in the fact that Jason Pierre-Paul could be gone in free agency it seems like a pass rusher would make sense but I’m not convinced there is value in one right here.  Missouri DE Shane Ray didn’t work out at the combine so he could still prove to be the guy, UCLA’s Owa Odighizuwa is a possibility as is Alvin Dupree from Kentucky but the Giants rarely draft for need and will likely go with the best player available.  Scherff is a monster on the offensive line and his best position might be RT or inside and that dovetails perfectly with what the Giants need.  Justin Pugh hasn’t set the world on fire at RT and many believe he’s better suited inside so bringing in Scherff would give Pugh some competition and probably push him inside to guard.  Scherff is a devastating run blocker and no matter where he lines up he would improve the Giants running game which they could certainly use.

10. St. Louis Rams (6-10) Amari Cooper   WR   Alabama

At this point what the Rams are doing at QB changes day-to-day.  Some reports say they are sticking with Sam Bradford and some say they are getting a veteran free agent.  Some reports say they are trading up in the draft and some say they are trading for a veteran, no matter what they do any QB, Bradford or otherwise, deserves better talent around him.  Tavon Austin is a nice little weapon to have but he’s not a #1 WR and while Stedman Bailey stepped up last year he’s a complementary WR not a star.  Cooper is a legitimate #1 WR and a star in the making.  I’ve compared him to Torry Holt and he’s been compared by others to Reggie Wayne and either of those would be music to a QB’s ears.  Bradford is a talented QB who is apparently made out of glass so if the Rams stick with him signing a veteran free agent backup isn’t a terrible idea but drafting Cooper is a fantastic idea no matter who lines up behind center.

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) DeVante Parker   WR   Louisville

I’m not usually one to make the easy connection and just go with it but drafting Teddy Bridgewater’s former college teammate to be his go-to WR for the Vikings makes too much sense.  The Vikings have Greg Jennings for the moment (his cap number could get him cut) and he’s not getting any younger, Cordarrelle Patterson had a disappointing second year and while they need help at offensive line and linebacker the value just doesn’t match up.  Parker is the third WR in this draft but he is certainly worth the 11^th pick especially to the Vikings because of his familiarity with Teddy Bridgewater.  Whether it is this year, next year or the year after that Adrian Peterson’s time with the Vikings is likely on the short side and Bridgewater is the future of the franchise, he and Parker could make a dynamic combination for years to come.  Parker also doesn’t squeeze Patterson out he actually enhances his value because he takes the pressure off.  Patterson could rebound in year three because of Parker’s presence and the Vikings passing game could take off.

12. Cleveland Browns (7-9) Shane Ray   OLB   Missouri

The nightmare scenario for the Browns would be Cooper, White and Parker off the board when their pick comes around and in this mock draft that just happened.  It’s not that the Browns don’t have other needs but a true #1 WR is the top priority and while Jaelen Strong had a fantastic combine they may not feel comfortable taking him at #12.  The Browns’ fans nightmare scenario is that the Browns draft Dorial Green-Beckham here and they have to go to sleep at night hoping he doesn’t turn into the next Josh Gordon off the field.  The Browns run defense was terrible and a DT like Malcolm Brown, Carl Davis or Eddie Goldman could be possible but I think unlikely at this point.  Former 1^st rounder Barkevious Mingo has been less than stellar, Jabaal Sheard is a free agent, and former free agent addition Paul Kruger is not much of a pass rusher which means OLB is a distinct possibility.  Missouri DE/OLB Shane Ray didn’t work out at the combine but there is a lot to like about him and he can get to the QB.  Head coach Mike Pettine needs to generate a pass rush and Ray could be the answer.

13. New Orleans Saints (7-9) Trae Waynes   CB   Michigan St.

If at first you don’t succeed try (draft Patrick Robinson and Stanley Jean-Baptiste) try (sign free agent Keenan Lewis) again.  The Saints haven’t had a lot of luck in the draft with CBs and while Lewis had one good year he wasn’t quite as good last year much like the rest of the Saints defense.  There is a decent chance the Saints go after a pass rusher like Alvin Dupree or Owa Odighizuwa but that position is deeper than CB and Waynes looked great at the combine and solidified his spot as the top CB in the draft.  If the Saints can get the top CB at #13 overall that’s better value than the 4^th or 5^th best pass rusher.  The pass rusher thing could become a bigger need if Junior Galette’s legal issues remove him from the equation (by release or suspension).  Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs a better pass rush but he’ll be happy with a better cover corner.

14. Miami Dolphins (8-8) La’el Collins   OL   LSU

The Dolphins have cut Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson and are trying to trade Mike Wallace which basically leaves Jarvis Landry at WR so Jaelen Strong won’t be a surprise here.  The Dolphins definitely need to get Ryan Tannehill some weapons but more importantly they need to protect him.  Collins probably is best suited to play OG where the Dolphins definitely need help but LT Brandon Albert seems to get hurt a lot and having a guy like Collins who could swing out to LT would be optimal.  They need LBs too but there isn’t great value at this spot for the type of LB they want.  SS Landon Collins out of Alabama is also certainly a possibility given the Dolphins safety situation and this is about the right spot for him too.

15. San Francisco 49ers (8-8) Arik Armstead   DE   Oregon

The 49ers need WR and CB help but their new head coach is their former d-line coach and he knows they need help there more.  Ray McDonald was released towards the end of last season because of his legal issues and Justin Smith might retire and even if he returns he’s a short-term solution.  Armstead would be a five-technique DE in the 49ers 3-4 defense and he’d be a good one.  It’s his natural position and if they can get Justin Smith to come back and mentor the kid for a year while he starts opposite him he could be fantastic.  Finding 6’7 300 lbs. guys as athletic as Armstead isn’t as easy as you might think so if they have a chance to grab him they should.  WR and CB can be addressed later.

16. Houston Texans (9-7) Alvin “Bud” Dupree   DE/OLB   Kentucky

The Texans need a QB like the human body needs oxygen but I don’t think it’s going to come from the draft.  Head coach Bill O’Brien seems interested in bringing back Ryan Mallet since he really didn’t get a good look at him last year due to injury and if that doesn’t happen Brian Hoyer isn’t heading back to the Browns with the signing of Josh McCown and O’Brien knows him too.  Brett Hundley is the only QB worth grabbing here and that’s not a fit.  It might seem strange that the Texans would grab an OLB/DE a year after taking Clowney with the first pick but the Texans have virtually no good depth at OLB and counting on Clowney is a risky proposition.  Clowney underwent micro-fracture surgery on his knee and that particular surgery doesn’t have a great return rate in the NFL.  Dupree is a guy that could line up at OLB or DE and get to the QB and even if by some miracle Clowney does come back Dupree can line up opposite him and they would have two top pass rushers at OLB.  CB is a need because Kareem McKenzie is a free agent and WR could become a bigger need if they jettison Andre Johnson but Dupree brings great value at #16 overall.

17. San Diego Chargers (9-7) Andrus Peat   OT   Stanford

The Chargers have a number of ways to go here considering their roster and some of the holes they need to fill.  The need a NT with some actual size and skill (all their current ones have one or the other but not both) and Eddie Goldman is a pretty good looking nose man.  They could use a CB unless they resign Brandon Flowers but he played well enough last year on a one year deal to possibly price himself out of San Diego.  Linebacker, both inside and out, could use some reinforcements.  I think they will choose to help out their o-line by grabbing Peat.  They just re-signed King Dunlap to play LT and grabbing Peat means they can shift DJ Fluker inside and insert Peat at RT.  That’s one draft pick upgrading two spots on the line and possibly making their running attack decent.  Peat has a very strong base because of his thick lower body and if he and Fluker line up next to each other they could form a pretty potent right side of the line.

18. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) TJ Clemmings   OT   Pittsburgh

The Chiefs have never been a team to go with conventional wisdom and while they are basically barren at WR the depth of this draft class along with the number of veterans that will be on the free agent market will allow Andy Reid to do what he loves to do, draft a lineman.  It’s a lot harder to find good lineman on the free agent market than WRs so Reid picks Clemmings who becomes his immediate starter at RT and has the added bonus that if former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher disappoints at LT Clemmings can slide right over.  I debated between Clemmings and C Cameron Erving from Florida St. because the Chiefs are likely to lose their starting C Rodney Hudson in free agency.  While either of those two make perfect sense in Andy Reid’s world I will say that if I were the Chiefs and Jaelen Strong was still on the board when this pick came up I would hire Usain Bolt to run the card up to the podium to pick him.  The Chiefs franchise has never had a WR with the talent of Strong that’s why Tony Gonzalez is their all-time leading receiver and he’s about 400 catches ahead of #2 Dwayne Bowe.

19. Cleveland (from Buffalo 9-7) Jaelen Strong   WR   Arizona St.

This would be a homerun pick on many levels for the Cleveland Brown.  After years of ups and downs with Josh Gordon they need the steadiness of Strong.  Whether it is newly signed Josh McCown or post rehab Johnny Manziel lining up under center they are going to need a legitimate WR on the outside.  Andrew Hawkins was a nice pickup last year as a slot receiver but with Gordon suspended for the year and unlikely to suit up for the Browns ever again and the potential free agent loss of TE Jordan Cameron the Browns need playmakers.  Strong had a fantastic workout at the combine and showed the speed scouts didn’t think he had to go along with his outstanding physical strength.  There is another part of the scouting report about Strong that the Browns need to consider; words like dependable, hard-working and work ethic show up repeatedly when discussing Strong.  High character and accountability are not usually major points of emphasis in scouting and drafting but for a team that’s had to deal with the Josh Gordon fiasco and now Johnny Manziel they actually mean something.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) Jalen Collins   CB   LSU

Chip Kelly is an offensive mastermind and now he’s in charge of personnel decisions in Philly and if there is a trade to be made to get up into the top 5 to grab Marcus Mariota I’m sure Kelly will make it.  He’s lucky that if he gives up a bevy of picks to get Mariota he still has Nick Foles to trade and get back at least a little something to lessen the sting.  I’m not forecasting trades at this point (I loathe to try) so I’m sticking with the Eagles here.  Kelly may be an offensive genius which should make it easy for him to spot the fact that his team’s defense was terrible last year.  They were second to last in pass defense and so a CB would make a lot of sense.  Jalen Collins had the second best CB combine workout (behind Trae Waynes) and Collins has length, speed and raw ability that the Eagles could use.  There are other defensive choices that would make sense since the Eagles could use a NT (Eddie Goldman), a pass rushing OLB since Marcus Smith was a non-factor last season (Odighizuwa or Eli Harold anyone?) or even SS Landon Collins because he’s too good to pass up.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) Owamagbe Odighizuwa   DE   UCLA

Carlos Dunlap did the lion’s share of the work at DE last season as he got virtually no help from Wallace Gilberry or Margus Hunt.  Owa would bring a lot of versatility to the Bengals defense and he could line up on either side and really give the offense someone to have to account for besides Dunlap.  You can make the argument that they need a DT replacement for Domata Peko more than they need an end so Goldman or Malcolm Brown or Carl Davis might seem more appropriate but Owa is too good to pass up at this point.  Youth in the secondary could be a good thing too as Leon Hall and Terrance Newman aren’t spring chickens but I think the Bengals will give Dre Kirkpatrick one more chance and they still think Darqueze Dennard is a player once he returns from injury.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) Landon Collins   SS   Alabama

The Steelers have been holding onto or bringing back too much age on their defense the past few years and while they have added some youth like DEs Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt and LBs Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones it is time for an overhaul.  They let long-time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau go so they could hold onto newly appointed defensive coordinator Kevin Butler and now it’s time to say goodbye to another Steeler stalwart.  SS Troy Polamalu is a Pittsburgh institution and a future Hall of Famer but he hasn’t been a great safety for years.  Landon Collins would be a great choice to take over for Polamalu and he’d bring a lot of the skills back that have left Polamalu’s game.  Collins is an intimidator who can back it up but he’s also a playmaker on the back end.  Youth, size, skill and presence is a nice combination in a new SS for the proud franchise and it’s a nice start to rebuilding a very aging secondary.

23. Detroit Lions (11-5) Carl Davis   DT   Iowa

The Lions are almost assuredly going to lose at least one of their starting DTs Ndamukong Suh or Nick Fairly and they could lose both.  Suh is the better player and is likely to get massive free agent offers so the Lions need to restock the position.  There is another issue in play here and that is the fact that the Lions are coming off an 11-5 season and look like they can be contenders in the NFC if they can sustain their momentum.  This is why I’m giving them Carl Davis instead of the younger DT Eddie Goldman.  Goldman has a pretty high ceiling but the Lions need someone to contribute right away and Davis could slide right in next to either Suh or Fairly if either returns.  Davis has a lot of playing time in the Big Ten under his belt so he won’t be intimidated and he’s a physically gifted and ready to play from day one.  The Lions don’t want to waste time waiting for someone to develop at this point they need an immediate contributor.  Davis had a good combine workout that followed an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and while he isn’t getting a lot of press at this point some team is going to take him right around this spot in the draft.

24. Arizona Cardinals (11-5) Marcus Peters   CB   Washington

The Cardinals are my choice for the dark horse team to grab Brett Hundley towards the end of the first round.  They can stash him on the bench and hope that Carson Palmer has one more year in him and let Bruce Arians guide Hundley’s development.  They found out last year what it was like without Palmer and don’t believe anything Arians or GM Steve Keim might say about Logan Thomas’ rosy future, it’s a smokescreen.  Barring them surprising everyone but me by taking Hundley they have some holes to fill on defense.  They let Darnell Dockett go after 475 years (that might be an exaggeration) with the team so they need a five-technique end but there isn’t one worth the pick.  They could grab Eli Harold to be their new pass rushing OLB but there is better value at CB.  Antonio Cromartie was on a one year deal and he’s likely to leave for greener pastures.  Patrick Peterson wasn’t his awesome self last year but he should bounce back.  Peters is an immense talent and forget the slightly slow 40 time at the combine he knows how to cover.  If there is any coach and any team that can harness Peters talent and get him to behave it’s Bruce Arians and the Cardinals.  Tyrann Mathieu has turned things around and Peters could blossom in the desert.

25. Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) DJ Humphries   OT   Florida

The Panthers were the unfortunate souls who won the worst division in football (NFC South) and make the playoffs regardless of their horrible record which is why they are picking so low.  One of the reasons Carolina’s season was so tough was because their offensive line was terrible, especially at LT.  Byron Bell started 15 games there and he’s already been informed he won’t be re-signed; it probably isn’t a good sign when your starting LT is shown the door and everyone breathes a sigh of relief.  I’m not a Humphries fan but even he’s a better option than Bell and at this point is the best possible LT on the board so the Panthers may take him.  Humphries has a lot of skills you like at LT and his athleticism is obvious but he’s going to need some good coaching.  He can’t possibly be the turnstile Bell was but he’ll need to work on his run blocking considering the Panthers like their power running game.

26. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) Cameron Erving   C   Florida St.

The Ravens need to get younger at OLB (Terrell Suggs is in year 13 and Elvis Dumervil is in year 10) but I’m not sure Eli Harold is a fit and there are a whole host of worthy second round candidates for that spot.  I seriously considered WR Dorial Green-Beckham given the fact that Torrey Smith is a potential free agent and Steve Smith is older than Suggs but after the Ray Rice incident (I don’t know what else to call it) drafting a guy with a domestic violence issue in his background is public relations suicide and the Ravens can’t touch him.  The Ravens offensive line is pretty good when healthy and undrafted rookie James Hurst was a find last year.  The one weak spot is at center where Jeremy Zuttah is fine but not spectacular.  Erving found his place this last year after moving to center from LT half way through the year due to injuries on the Florida St. line.  Erving started his career on the defensive line, had a good junior year at LT and blossomed as a center after his senior year at LT got off to a rough start.  Erving would solidify a very good offensive line for the Ravens.

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-4) Eddie Goldman   DT   Florida St.

The Cowboys have cut some good players and have some good free agents-to-be.  They are going to franchise tag Dez Bryant (an obvious move) and let DeMarco Murray test the free agent market.  That means many mock drafts are going to have the Cowboys jumping on a RB but if anyone knows you don’t need to take a RB in the first round it’s the team that just had former third round pick Murray run all over everyone.  They cut both Henry Melton and Nick Hayden and rendered the interior of the defensive line completely devoid of players.  Goldman needs some seasoning but he’s got a high ceiling and he will take up a whole lot of space in the middle of the line.  He will hopefully keep their playmaking LBs free to make plays and that would help their defense.  They could go RT with Ereck Flowers since they let Doug Free go or they could grab AJ Cann to replace Ronald Leary at guard but 4 first round offensive linemen in five years just doesn’t sound very Jerry Jones like.

28. Denver Broncos (12-4) Maxx Williams   TE   Minnesota

This pick makes way too much sense to actually happen because it is the perfect fit on the perfect team that desperately needs the position and Williams is the best at the position.  First of all the Broncos are not only likely to lose their top TE Julius Thomas to free agency because they can’t afford to keep him and Demaryius Thomas but the top two backups to Thomas are also free agents.  Secondly new head coach Gary Kubiak’s offense likes to feature a TE and he did so in both Houston and Baltimore with Owen Daniels a veteran Maxx Williams compares very favorably to.  Third if the Broncos are bringing Peyton Manning back he has always been fond of using the TE going back to his days with Dallas Clark in Indy up to using Thomas in Denver.  Finally Williams is the best all-around TE in this draft so unless the Broncos decide they want to take Devin Funchess and use him as a TE instead of a WR Williams is the pick.  Keeping the Broncos offense chugging right along is priority #1 because as long as they have Peyton Manning they have a chance in the AFC.

29. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) Melvin Gordon   RB   Wisconsin

The Colts need help on the right side of the offensive line, their linebacking corps could use some talent and they aren’t exactly stacked at safety but all of those needs take a back seat to the wasteland that is their running back depth chart.  Daniel “Boom” Herron finished the year with some nice games but the Trent Richardson experiment was a disaster and Ahmad Bradshaw cannot stay healthy so it’s time for a change.  Andrew Luck deserves a running game to take some pressure off of him and Melvin Gordon is a homerun hitter at tailback.  Gordon can fit into the high octane, big-play offense the Colts have and he will be a dynamic playmaker along with TY Hilton.  Having a legitimate RB, and with some reinforcements on the offensive line either later in the draft or through free agency, will make Luck that much more amazing.  Luck is a future MVP waiting to happen but the Colts will be a much tougher playoff team with an actual running game.

30. Green Bay Packers (12-4) Shaq Thompson   LB   Washington

Thompson had a less than stellar combine performance which is why he’s still available here at #30.  The Packers released AJ Hawk and Brad Jones and they should move Clay Matthews back to OLB so they need some ILBs otherwise they will be lining up with only 9 guys on the field.  Thompson is versatile and while he isn’t big he is talented and he could be very good in Dom Capers defense.  Thompson could be used in a variety of ways by Capers and his coverage skills could come in handy.  Green Bay may need a new RT if Bryan Bulaga leaves in free agency and they need some depth on the defensive line but Thompson is too good to pass up.  He wasn’t a workout star at the combine but the fact that he was as good as he was at Washington without ever focusing on one position means he could be fantastic once a team gets him, puts him at a position and lets him learn it completely.

31. Seattle Seahawks (12-4) Dorial Green-Beckham   WR   Missouri/Oklahoma

If there was ever a coach that wouldn’t shy away from taking on the biggest risk in the draft it’s Pete Carroll.  Green-Beckham is the gamble of the draft because he’s just as likely to end up suspended for pot smoking or some other transgression as he is to end up in a Pro Bowl.  Carroll has had players with issues since his days at USC so he knows how to handle them and one thing he won’t do is allow any issues Green-Beckham may have to effect his club overall (he won’t let one guy’s issues hurt his franchise the way the Browns have allowed Josh Gordon to affect theirs).  The Seahawks have a pretty good veteran group led by guys like Richard Sherman, Russell Wilson, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner and that environment could be very good for Green-Beckham.  I can’t bypass the issue that could arise given Green-Beckham’s past failed drug tests and the legality of marijuana in the state of Washington; someone will have to stay on him like a hawk (no pun intended).  As far as on the field goes Green-Beckham is light years ahead of most of the Seahawks current WRs and he would pair very nicely with Doug Baldwin and actually relieve some of the pressure on Baldwin.  At 6’5 237 lbs. and great speed Green-Beckham is a matchup nightmare for every team in the league.

32. New England Patriots (12-4) Todd Gurley   RB   Georgia

The Patriots are coming off a Super Bowl win but they still have a number of issues to deal with including the status of Darrelle Revis’ contract, the age of DT Vince Wilfork, the free agency of most of their RBs and the shape of their interior offensive line.  I think they will keep S Devin McCourty and eventually work out a deal to extend Darrelle Revis and lower his cap number.  If C Bryan Stork can stay healthy their interior offensive line should be fine.  Vince Wilfork isn’t getting any younger and even if they can coax one more year out of him guys like Malcolm Brown and Jordan Phillips have to be in play here but the biggest question marks are at RB.  Stevan Ridley is a free agent and there is no reason to bring him back, Shane Vereen is a free agent and he would be great to have back but it might be too expensive.  LaGarrette Blount returned late in the season and played fine but he isn’t consistently what the Patriots need.  Todd Gurley is a future star and he’s a power back that could be great with or without Vereen around.  Gurley can play all three downs and he would be a great player to have to take some of the offensive pressure off of Tom Brady as he gets older.  If the Patriots draft a CB or a WR I’m going to be sick to my stomach because Bill Belichick has a horrible track record with those two positions early in the draft.  Gurley is coming off a knee injury but it doesn’t look like that will slow him down in his rookie year.

The other first round possibilities:

QB Brett Hundley (UCLA) – If there is a trade towards the end of the first round it is likely going to be for someone coming up to grab Hundley.  He’s the only QB other than Winston and Mariota worth having in this draft.

WR Sammie Coates (Auburn) – Coates is a big, physical WR with good speed but his drops are a concern and it might push him down a little.  He’s fighting with a couple of other WRs to maybe make the first round but he looks like a solid round two selection to me.

WR Devin Smith (Ohio St.) – The deep ball specialist actually looked good doing everything at the combine and he’s in the mix for the end of the first round.  I couldn’t find a spot for him but that doesn’t mean someone else won’t.

WR/TE Devin Funchess (Michigan) – His 4.70 40 time at the combine has teams rethinking their stance on him being a WR but he really would need to bulk up a little to be a true TE.  The ‘tweener label is hurting him right now.

OT Ereck Flowers (Miami) – I couldn’t find a place for Flowers and he’s a little limited by the fact that he seems like strictly a RT at the moment.  His struggles during drills at the combine didn’t endear him to anyone but he would make a heck of second round RT for someone.

OG AJ Cann (South Carolina) – This is the one I struggled leaving out of the first round because he’s so good.  I really considered him for the Patriots at #32 but couldn’t pull the trigger.  I won’t be the least bit surprised if he goes in the first round and he might make my next mock draft depending on some free agency moves.

OLB Eli Harold (Virginia) – Harold had a very good workout at the combine but for some reason I still see him as a tough fit for a number of teams.  He’s a very good pass rusher but I think he might struggle doing other LB things so I see him in the second round not the first.

LB Benardrick McKinney (Mississippi St.) – There is a very good chance I missed on putting him with the Green Bay Packers in round one because I like Shaq Thompson so much.  McKinney would be a great fit at ILB in the Packers 3-4 defense so he might end up in the first round.

DT Malcolm Brown (Texas) – Brown could easily replace Davis or Goldman in any first round scenarios I just like the other two better.  Brown won’t fall far if he falls out of the first round because he’s a real talent.

DT Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma) – The 6’5 329 lbs. giant has the size everyone wants in a DT but he was only a redshirt sophomore this last season meaning he’s still pretty raw.  He wasn’t stellar at the combine and teams will go back and look at the tape and see a guy that didn’t dominate like you would think.  He’ll get drafted on potential alone but there are better DTs who are ready to contribute immediately and Phillips will need some time.

CB PJ Williams (Florida St.) – He’s a very talented cover man but his workout at the combine didn’t impress like others so he might fall and since this CB draft class isn’t great he may be available in the second round.  He’s probably a steal in the second round but that happens from time to time.