MVP

Most Likely Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Russell Wilson, RB Alvin Kamara

Sleepers: QB Carson Wentz, WR Michael Thomas

If you’re going to compete for MVP you have to put up great numbers, be on a winning team and usually being a QB helps.  Mahomes won it last year and if he throws for 50 TDs again, he’ll win it again but I think he falls off just slightly and opens the door for someone else.  Brady is always a possibility and with adding Antonio Brown to his weapons this could be a big year statistically for Brady and we know he’ll win.  Elliott is the focal point of the Dallas offense and that means he matters in this race.  Russell Wilson is the Seahawks offense; I don’t know if they will win enough for him to be considered but its possible.  Kamara is going to be used a lot in New Orleans so his stats may be worthy but he might only be the 3^rd most likely MVP candidate on his own team.  The last time Wentz was healthy for nearly a whole season he almost won the award, if he stays healthy, he’s a could do it.  Thomas is my deep sleeper.  WRs almost never win the award but he could have a phenomenal year and pull it off.

My Pick: Drew Brees

I think Brees has a big year.  I think the Saints have a big year.  I think Mahomes suffers from unrealistic expectations and that hurts his candidacy when he comes up just short of 50 TDs.  This could very well be the Lifetime Achievement MVP Award because Brees has never won it but he’s finished second so many times it feels like he has.  He’s a Hall of Famer, lets give him the MVP Award.

Defensive Player of the Year

Most Likely Contenders: DL Aaron Donald, DE Myles Garrett, DE JJ Watt, DE Khalil Mack, CB Stephon Gilmore, LB Luke Kuechly, LB Darius Leonard

Sleeper: DT Chris Jones

Myles Garrett is just coming into his own and this year he has Olivier Vernon opposite him so teams can’t focus solely on stopping him.  That should help and he could go for somewhere between 15-18 sacks.  Watt is almost always good for 15 sacks and he’s just a stalwart in this category.  Mack makes the Bears defense elite.  His all-around play along with his ability to pressure the QB makes him a candidate for this award.  Gilmore is one of the best CBs in the NFL.  Usually for a defensive back to compete for this award you have to have a lot of interceptions but when you’re the guy teams avoid throwing at that doesn’t have to be the case.  LBs Kuechly and Leonard face long odds because tackles just aren’t as valuable as sacks or interceptions when it comes to this award but Leonard led the league in tackles by a lot last season and Kuechly is a tackling machine.  Jones had a great year last season on a terrible Chiefs defense, now with Frank Clark playing on the same line Jones might have an even better year.

My Pick: Aaron Donald

Like I’m picking against the most dominant defensive player in the league.  Donald has been a force of nature the last few years and has won back-to-back DPOY awards.  I don’t see him slowing down and I don’t see anyone slowing him down so it’s his award until further notice.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Most Likely Contenders:  QB Kyler Murray, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Marquise Brown, RB David Montgomery, TE TJ Hockenson, TE Noah Fant, RB Miles Sanders

Sleepers: WR Terry McLaurin, WR Deebo Samuel

This award might be the hardest to handicap.  Murray was the #1 overall pick in the draft so he’s on the list but his growing pains are going to be substantial and his team isn’t going to be very good.  Marquise Brown has the advantage that the Ravens don’t have much else at WR so he’s going to be Lamar Jackson’s go-to guy, my only concern is he might get hurt.  Montgomery is a talented player but the Bears have three RBs so his usage might not be enough to get him noticed.  Hockenson and Fant both suffer from the fact that TEs just don’t get enough love to win this award.  They might be the two best rookies by the end of the year and still not win it.  Sanders still has to win the starting job from Jordan Howard, I think he will but the longer it takes the harder it will be for him to show what he can do.  McLaurin’s stock shot up when the Redskins cut Josh Doctson.  They need a #1 WR and McLaurin can be that guy, the question is will the Redskins’ offense with Case Keenum be any good?  I like Deebo Samuel and he very well could be the top WR with the 49ers, but what will their offense look like?

My Pick: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is RB in an offense that is going to have to rely heavily on him both in the run game and the passing game.  He’s a multi-dimensional talent so he should put up good numbers.  I’m not sure there is going to be a large number of rookies that really stuff the stat sheet so Jacobs should stand out in the crowd.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Most Likely Contenders:  LB Devin White, DT Ed Oliver, DT Quinnen Williams, LB Devin Bush, DE Nick Bosa, DE Josh Allen

Sleeper: CB Deandre Baker

Both LBs, Devin White and Devin Bush, are going to rack up an obscene amount of tackles this season.  White steps into a Bucs defense that needs a lot of help in the middle and Bush becomes the new Ryan Shazier in Pittsburgh.  Either of them could follow Darius Leonard’s lead from last year by leading the league in tackles and winning this award as a rookie.  Quinnen Williams is playing for Gregg Williams’ defense for the Jets and that could mean good things for him.  Nick Bosa and Josh Allen are edge rushers and if either of them gets to 15 sacks or more they would become the favorite for this award.  Deandre Baker should get some opportunities for interceptions as he’s the #2 CB opposite Janoris Jenkins for the Giants for now.  He’s a talented player and he will make plays for them.

My Pick: Ed Oliver

Oliver plays on one of the better defenses in the NFL with the Bills.  He’s a starter at DT and while that’s not usually a sexy position that puts up big stats Oliver can.  He should collapse the pocket and get quite a few sacks.  Depending on the number of tackles White and Bush put up, or the number of sacks Bosa or Allen put up Oliver might stand out more than they do.

NFC Playoff Teams (* wild card teams)

Philadelphia

Chicago

New Orleans

L.A. Rams

* Green Bay

* Minnesota

AFC Playoff Teams (* wild card teams)

New England

Pittsburgh

Houston

Kansas City

* L.A Chargers

* Cleveland

(I had to make a last-minute change. When I was writing this during week 1 games, they announced Nick Foles broke his collarbone during the Jaguars game.  Given that’s about a 6-week injury and their backup is Gardner Minshew I can’t leave them as the winners of the AFC South and I think Houston wins the division and Cleveland wins the second wild card spot)

AFC Championship Game

New England over Kansas City

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Super Bowl

New England over New Orleans (Antonio Brown is Super Bowl MVP, just kidding, it’s Edelman of course)

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston and Indianapolis have experienced major changes in the last two weeks that has completely changed the outlook of this division.  I was feeling pretty good about Indianapolis and while I think Jacoby Brissett will be fine, I like Jacksonville more overall.  This team is stacked with talent and now that they have Nick Foles at QB instead of Blake Bortles they have a chance to really live up to their potential.  Foles just has to run the offense and not screw it up.  They really need Leonard Fournette to be an effective offensive player to really take this team to another level.  At WR Marqise Lee returns from injury but it’s really Dede Westbrook who looks like a breakout star.  The offensive line has potential to be really good if Cam Robinson stays healthy at LT and if either Cedric Ogbuehi or Jawaan Taylor can lock down the RT position.  New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo has worked with Foles before so the transition shouldn’t be too hard.  Foles and Fournette are the keys to this offense.

The defense was excellent two years ago and while it wasn’t quite as good last year it was still pretty good.  I think they have a chance to be elite once again.  The defensive line has Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell at DE and the team somehow lucked into Josh Allen with the #7 pick in the draft.  Allen will be a pass rushing specialist and these three will wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  DT Marcel Dareus and Abry Jones are solid in the middle.  At LB Myles Jack is excellent in the middle and while rookie Quincy Williams and Leon Jacobs aren’t household names, they should be fine.  CB Jalen Ramsey can be one of the best in the NFL and his running mate AJ Bouye is one of the best #2 CBs in the NFL.  SS Ronnie Harrison stepped up last year and he should be good again.

Head coach Doug Marrone is not really a guy people get excited about but he’s a steady presence and has brought stability to the sidelines.  Defensive coordinator Todd Wash is one of the more underappreciated coordinators in the league.  He has done a fantastic job and he knows how to best use his personnel, I’m excited to see what he can do with Josh Allen.  The offense is where the problems have been and while John DeFilippo didn’t have a good run last year in Minnesota, he got fired in the middle of the year, he’s actually a pretty good offensive mind.  I think his vision and Marrone’s vision for the offense are more compatible than DeFilippo’s was with Mike Zimmer with the Vikings.  DeFilippo’s past with Nick Foles should also come in handy.  I think Jacksonville takes advantage of the uncertainty in Houston and Indianapolis and pulls out the division title.

Houston Texans

Many people are not on board with the trades the Texans made at the end of the preseason and while they definitely paid handsomely for their acquisitions of Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills and didn’t get a lot for Jadeveon Clowney I’m okay with what it does for them right now.  The Texans offense is built around Deshaun Watson and he barely made it out of last season alive.  The offensive line has been horrible and they haven’t been good at drafting OTs since the days of Duane Brown.  Tunsil is one of the better LTs in football and he’s still only 25 years old.  He can grow with Watson and secure his blindside for the foreseeable future.  They also add WR Kenny Stills to play opposite DeAndre Hopkins and to me that’s a good addition.  Will Fuller and Keke Coutee haven’t stayed healthy and Stills is a veteran presence that adds consistency to take some pressure off of Hopkins.  They lost RB Lamar Miller and they are looking at using a combination of Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, two guys they traded for during the preseason.  They are essentially devoid of anyone of significance at TE.  The offensive line got a huge upgrade with Tunsil but it does beg the question of what they were thinking drafting Tytus Howard in the first-round.  Howard was a poor choice at that point and that seems clear already.  The line will be better with a healthy Nick Martin at center and Seantrel Henderson at RT.  Watson will carry the offense once again, hopefully he won’t be running for his life.

The defense takes a hit with the trade of OLB Jadeveon Clowney but I’m actually okay with the choice the Texans are making.  I think they could have gotten more out of the Clowney trade, Barkevious Mingo is not a worthwhile piece, but I wouldn’t have paid Clowney what he wants either.  Clowney wants to be paid like he’s Khalil Mack or Von Miller and he simply doesn’t affect the game the way those two do.  He’s a good all-around OLB but he isn’t an elite pass rusher.  I would rather spend the money on Tunsil.  This does mean that the team is counting that much more on an aging JJ Watt and a not-as-young-as-he-used-to-be Whitney Mercilus.  On the d-line, DT DJ Reader holds his own and they can hope rookie Charles Omenihu outplays his draft position.  At ILB they are pretty good with Zach Cunningham and Bernardrick McKinney.  Mercilus needs some help at OLB and I would be shocked if it came in the form of Barkevious Mingo.  At CB Jonathan Joseph makes Watt look like a spring chicken but he is still effective.  Newly signed Bradley Roby adds youth but he’s inconsistent.  S Justin Reid played well as a rookie last year and Tayshaun Gipson should be a decent veteran presence.

The Texans fired their GM after the draft and they haven’t replaced him and they don’t plan to do so.  For now, it’s GM-by-committee and it seems like Bill O’Brien is leading that committee.  It is probably why the team looks like they got fleeced in their two trades.  Everything is on O’Brien now and he knows he is betting big on Deshaun Watson.  The Texans are a likely playoff team but they have a few too many holes on defense, an unproven offensive line, and a RB committee that basically got to the team yesterday.  That’s a lot to put on the shoulders of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins.  The Texans should be good but they are probably not going to be great.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck retired.  The Colts season was defined before it ever got started when Andrew Luck had had enough of his injuries and his rehab and walked away from the game at 29.  I like Jacoby Brissett and the team around him now is far better than the one he led two years ago when Luck sat out with a shoulder injury.  However, Luck was a special talent who had the ability to raise the play of the guys around him and make decent players good and good players great.  The team was built around Luck’s greatness and now that’s gone.  The team won’t fall off a cliff like they did when Peyton Manning was lost for a season because Jacoby Brissett isn’t Curtis Painter but he isn’t Andrew Luck either.  The team will have to rely more heavily on RB Marlon Mack.  Mack had a good year once returned from injury at the start of last year.  TY Hilton has always had a fantastic connection with Luck and now he has to establish a new one with Brissett.  Hilton is a #1 WR and they need him to play like it. The team signed Devin Funchess to bring a bigger physical presence to the WR spot and drafted Parris Campbell to add another speed element.  The TE spot is well manned by Jack Doyle and TD machine Eric Ebron. Ebron will drop off some for sure but he’s still a threat.  The offensive line made huge strides last season. LT Anthony Costanzo, LG Quenton Nelson and C Ryan Kelly are very good.  RT Braden Smith played pretty well as a rookie and the unit should be stable.

This defense was greater than the sum of its parts.  That is a testament to defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and dynamic LB Darius Leonard.  Leonard was an All-Pro as a rookie and that’s not easy to do.  The team will rely on steady veteran Jabaal Sheard and new addition Justin Houston to rush the passer at DE.  Houston was an OLB in Kansas City but the defense in Indy is a little different.  Danico Autry and Margus Hunt man the middle at DT.  Leonard plays the weakside while Anthony Walker mans the middle and Matt Adams plays the strongside at LB.  Walker is an underrated MLB but it’s understandable when Leonard takes all the attention.  Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore were far better than expected at CB while Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers held down the safety spots.  Not a lot of household names on this defense but like I said they are greater than the sum of their parts.  This is really a solid unit with only one true standout player.  As long as Eberflus can get the same cohesiveness out of this group as he did last year, they should be fine.

Frank Reich wasn’t the first choice to be the head coach of the Colts last season but he was the right choice.  Now Reich gets to work his magic with a backup QB again, he did it with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, this time will be just as difficult.  There is a lot of pressure on Brissett to not collapse under the weight of the loss of Luck but he’s stepped in before.  The team is better than they were two years ago when Luck missed the season and this is a completely new coaching staff so while I don’t think they are a playoff team; I don’t think they completely collapse either.

Tennessee Titans

The entire Titans franchise rests on the shoulders of Marcus Mariota.  That’s a lot to put on the guy but they didn’t make him the #2 overall pick to be a middling NFL player.  Just like Jameis Winston in Tampa Bay it’s sink or swim time for Mariota.  He’s in his fifth year and the team has to decide if he’s worth further investment or if they need to look for a new QB.  I’ve never been a big Mariota fan, he’s a better athlete than he is a QB, this year he has no excuse for failure because he has talent around him.  At RB the team has work horse Derrick Henry and third-down back Dion Lewis.  At WR there is potential #1 target Corey Davis, a strong second receiver in Tajee Sharpe and new slot receiver Adam Humphries.  Delanie Walker returns at TE and Jonnu Smith can’t be terrible forever.  The offensive line is missing LT Taylor Lewan for the first month of the season due to suspension but if they can’t overcome that it’s because Mariota just isn’t quite good enough to do so.  The rest of the line is fine.

Mike Vrabel brought in long-time defensive coach Dean Pees to be the defensive coordinator last year and it made a difference.  This year they are making some personnel changes to bring the defense up a notch.  The team returns Da’Quan Jones and Jurrell Casey on the line and they signed Brent Urban from Baltimore, a guy Pees knows well.  At LB they have Rashaan Evans, Jayon Brown and Wesley Woodyard to rotate on the inside, it’s the OLB that will change.  Gone are veterans Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan and in their place are even more veteran Cameron Wake and youngster Harold Landry.  The team is hoping to get one more year out of Wake whom they signed from Miami and they hope Landry can be a full-time player this year.  Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson return at CB.  Ryan and Butler can be fine but can also struggle, Jackson is a pretty good nickel.  Kevin Byard has become one of the better free safeties in football while Kenny Vaccaro is steady at strong safety.  The guy to watch out for is rookie Amani Hooker.  He’s a multi-talented safety who can play some nickel and isn’t afraid to mix it up as a tackler.

The Titans have good, solid talent all around but they don’t have a lot of dynamic playmakers.  They need Mariota to be that guy but he just isn’t consistent enough.  Perhaps, if he were a more consistent thrower Corey Davis would live up to his immense talent at WR.  RB Derrick Henry is an unremarkable work horse and Dion Lewis isn’t quite as dynamic as he was in his Patriot days, then again who ever is?  On defense they need Jurrell Casey to stand out and they need one of the OLB to step up.  I think they are going to find Hooker can be a playmaker in the backend but that might not be enough.  I think the Titans finish last in the division and I think they go shopping for a new QB next season, either in the draft or in a trade.

 

 

New Orleans Saints

Obviously, the Saints are built around Drew Brees and as he ages, they are trying that much harder to win now before he’s done.  They signed his favorite receiver Michael Thomas to a much-deserved contract extension and he should continue to dominate the target share for the offense.  Thomas is one of the top WR in the league and now he’s paid like one.  RB Alvin Kamara is the other star on offense and his role should grow after the departure of Mark Ingram.  Kamara is a multi-dimensional weapon as both a runner and receiver.  He’s actually Brees’ second best receiver behind Thomas.  The team counts on veteran Ted Ginn to give them a little something opposite Thomas and they are clearly still hoping Tre’Quan Smith will develop.  The team did sign Jared Cook to take over at TE and he’s the best pass catcher they have had at the position since they traded away Jimmy Graham.  The offensive line has been solid for years but this off season C Max Unger retired and the team is looking to rookie Eric McCoy to fill the void.  That’s a tall ask for a rookie but he has very good veterans surrounding him.  OTs Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are really good and OGs Andrus Peat and Larry Warford are solid.

The defense has played better over the last several years as the personnel has improved and Dennis Allen has taken over.  They still need a few guys to step up to really make a leap towards the top of the league on that side of the ball.  DE Cameron Jordan has been one of the best in the in the NFL for a number of years but he’s mostly been doing it on his own in New Orleans.  Last year the team traded up to get Marcus Davenport to play the other DE spot.  He had his moments as a rookie but they need him to be a consistent force.  DT Sheldon Rankins was finally healthy and he should pair with free agent Malcolm Brown to form a solid duo inside.  The team isn’t stocked with outstanding playmakers at LB. They are really just a decent set of guys but nothing special.  The team just traded for Kiko Alonso from the Dolphins, he’s a solid veteran.  In the secondary there is some special talent.  CB Marshon Lattimore wasn’t as good last year as he was as a rookie but he can bounce back and be a #1 CB.  Eli Apple joined the team at the trade deadline last season and he’s a solid #2.  The safety duo of Marcus Williams and Vonn Bell is pretty good and there is some depth in the secondary.  CBs PJ Williams and Patrick Robinson can be good if they are healthy and rookie S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson has some nice skills to build on.

Sean Payton has been doing this awhile and he’s one of the better coaches in the NFL.  This team is built to compete now and Payton knows how to win, he has a Super Bowl ring to prove it.  OC Pete Carmichael has been with Payton quite a while and DC Dennis Allen should have his defense fully ingrained after being there the last couple of years.  This team won’t be outcoached and I like them to win the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are coming off a disappointing season that was marred by a host of injuries on defense and an ineffective offense.  They clearly saw the offensive line as a problem as they drafted two first-rounders on the line, OG Chris Lindstrom and OT Kaleb McGary, and signed veteran James Carpenter.  Lindstrom and Carpenter take over the guard spots while McGary starts the year fighting for the RT job because he missed time with a heart issue.  Once McGary is fully up to speed the job will be his.  All of this was done to protect Matt Ryan better so he can use his weapons in the passing game and to open up some running room for Davonta Freeman.  Freeman lost his running partner Tevin Coleman but the Falcons hope Ito Smith can fill that void.  Freeman will likely take over a few more touches a game too, he’s an effective RB.  Ryan has been successful and he has Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu to throw to so he’s not lacking for talent around him.  TE Austin Hooper also proved to be effective last season.  The last piece of the puzzle was bringing back Dirk Koetter to run the offense.  He spent some time in Atlanta before he was coaching in Tampa Bay and now, he gets to get Matt Ryan and this offense back on track.

The defense was a MASH unit last season.  If they are healthy and flying around this defense can be one of the better ones in the league.  The line is led by DT Grady Jarrett and he needs one of the other DTs to step up and help him out.  They are flanked by DEs Takk McKinley, who has had some issues off the field, and Vic Beasley who’s sort of an undersized DE/OLB.  Beasley is the best pass rusher and they need McKinley to help him out.  Veterans Allen Bailey and Adrian Clayborn were added for depth.  At LB the team goes with speed above all else.  Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and Duke Riley are all plenty fast.  The team really missed Jones and his leadership last year.  The secondary was decimated by the injuries to Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen and Damontae Kazee at safety and they should all be back healthy.  Desmond Trufant is an underappreciated CB and Isaiah Oliver has potential to be pretty good.  Dan Quinn still runs this unit; now he has to hope he has his full complement of players this year.

Quinn is a very good coach which is why he is basically getting a mulligan for last season.  The injury issues completely derailed this team.  A better o-line will fix what ails the offense and health makes the defense immensely better.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers offense has run through Cam Newton for years now but it is time for a bit of a change.  Newton has been banged up quite often and his shoulder has taken the brunt of it all so the team needs to find ways to lessen his load.  Enter Christian McCaffrey.  McCaffrey is a multi-dimensional weapon who can carry the load for this offense.  He’s dynamic and every team has to account for him wherever he lines up on the field.  He needs to be the focus of the offense and they can’t rely so much on Newton.  They do have other playmakers that Newton should lean on also.  WR DJ Moore had a solid season as a rookie and he should be even better this year.  Curtis Samuel is the other WR and he can be a weapon.  The team signed former Patriot Chris Hogan and he should stabilize the third WR spot and take some pressure off Moore and Samuel.  TE Greg Olsen is back again he has always been a Newton favorite.  The offensive line has some changes with Daryl Williams returning from injury to join Taylor Moton as the OTs.  The team also signed Matt Paradis to replace long-time center Ryan Kalil.  The offensive line has to do better protecting Newton and opening holes for McCaffrey.  Williams and Paradis should help considerably.

The Panthers are making a change on defense as they move to a 3-4 defense instead of the 4-3.  They signed Gerald McCoy after the Bucs let him go and he’ll team with Dontari Poe and Kawann Short in what should be a pretty impressive three-man front.  Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson should be an excellent duo at ILB as they can tackle everything.  OLB is an extremely important position in the 3-4 defense and this is where it can go off the rails.  Bruce Irvin was signed but he’s never quite lived up to the hype as a pass rusher and he’s never really been more than a situational guy.  Mario Addison is moving from DE to OLB, we will see how that goes.  The best potential pass rusher is rookie Brian Burns, he’s built for this defense and he could be fantastic.  The secondary can be good.  CB Donte Jackson had a good rookie year while James Bradberry can be very tough playing opposite him.  At safety, the team got a lot better last year when they signed Eric Reid.  Reid stabilizes the unit and brings leadership and talent to the table.  Tre Boston isn’t great but he’s not terrible.

Ron Rivera and his coaching staff return and they hope they have a little better luck injury wise on offense this season as Newton, Olsen and Williams all fought injuries that derailed some of what they want to do.  On defense it looks like they are playing to the strengths of their personnel going to the 3-4.  Irvin and Burns are built to be OLB not DEs and their d-line has guys better suited to the three-man front.  I think they may struggle a bit as the team moves away from being Newton-centric on offense and the transition on defense could have some growing pains.  They should be a close third to Atlanta in the division unless Newton’s health becomes a problem again.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I was all ready to declare the Bucs as my worst team in the league this season and then the Dolphins said “hold my beer”.  I’m not a Jameis Winston believer even with new head coach Bruce Arians being so good with QBs.  I think this team will be looking for a new one come April of 2020.  RB Peyton Barber is okay but he’s the definition of a pedestrian RB.  If Barber isn’t threatening the defense it will make like miserable for Winston and his WRs.  He has good talent to work with in the passing game with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin along with TE OJ Howard.  If Bruce Arians can fix Winston this offense could be good but I just don’t see it.  The line is also not that impressive.  LT Donovan Smith is fine but he’s not a dominant player.  LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen and RT Demar Dotson are starting caliber players but they don’t excite anyone.  The scary part is the offense is the good news.

The defense is going to struggle.  They signed Ndamukong Suh hoping to get the guy who played well during the playoffs last season for the Rams and not the guy who was unimpressive the rest of the year.  The team will play a 3-4 defense under new coordinator Todd Bowles but they don’t have great personnel for it just yet.  Suh and Williams Gholston will play DE around either Beau Allen or Vita Vea at NT.  Vea has potential but for now that’s all it is.  Rookie Devin White should pair with Lavonte David to be a fantastic set of ILBs but that’s the only great part of this defense.  At OLB the team signed Shaq Barrett and are hoping he can be a full-time player instead of a pass rushing specialist he was before.  They also need either veteran Carl Nassib or rookie Anthony Nelson to transition to OLB and that could be a bumpy ride.  At CB they are giving Vernon Hargreaves another chance to prove he’s not a bust.  Todd Bowles is an excellent defensive backs coach so they are hoping he can save Hargreaves career before it’s too late.  Carlton Davis should hold down the other CB spot.  At safety, Bowles will have to work some magic.  Justin Evans is fine but the other spot could be trouble.

Bruce Arians came out of retirement after one year to take this job.  It seems like an odd one for an older coach considering the rebuild this team needs.  Arians brought in Byron Leftwich to run the offense and he has the task of salvaging Jameis Winston in one year before the team has to decide which direction to go with him.  Todd Bowles is Arians’ new defensive coordinator after losing the head job with the Jets.  Bowles has always been a great defensive coach but there is a ton of work to be done with this unit.  I predict this team to be picking high enough to get whichever QB the Dolphins don’t pick between Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.

 

Los Angeles Rams

The reigning NFC Champions have influenced many teams this off season to try to replicate what the Rams have with young offensive genius head coach Sean McVay.  The Packers and Bengals hired former McVay assistants Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor while the Cardinals went for their own version of a young offensive genius in Kliff Kingsbury.  Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  McVay’s offense has been the centerpiece of the Rams resurgence.  RB Todd Gurley did the lion’s share of the lifting for most of last year and then his knees started to give out.  The team is trying to lighten his load with the return of a healthy Malcolm Brown and rookie RB Derrell Henderson hoping to help out.  Jared Goff had a very good year last season and they team hopes to build on that.  Goff had two 1000-yard WRs in Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods and he was missing one of his favorite targets, Cooper Kupp, for much of the year.  Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee are a solid duo at TE.  The team will see some turnover on the offensive line as C John Sullivan is gone but they are hoping to coax (at least) one more good year out of LT Andrew Whitworth.  He’s an important part of their success.  The biggest concern is Gurley’s health and they are hoping that lessening his workload will keep him healthy all year long.

The defense is led by 2-time defending Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald.  He’s a menace to all opposing offenses and he doesn’t look like he’s slowing down any time soon.  As long as Donald is wreaking havoc the rest of the defense will play off of him.  The team wanted a better outside pass rush from their 3-4 scheme so last season they traded for Dante Fowler at the deadline and then they re-signed him.  He’s better than what they had but that’s not saying much.  This off season they signed Clay Matthews and they hope he can find a little bit of the pass rushing skill he used to have in Green Bay.  I’m not sure counting on Matthews is a great plan considering he hasn’t been elite in quite some time but as a part-time pass rusher he might be effective.  Cory Littleton and Micah Kiser are no name ILB but they actually aren’t too bad.  The secondary has some big names that the team needs to play up to their reputations.  Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib are the starting CBs and when they are on, they are excellent.  Talib isn’t quite as good as he used to be but that’s to be expected at 33.  Peters needs to be more consistent.  S Eric Weddle was signed when the team lost Lamarcus Joyner in free agency, Weddle is no spring chicken either but he was pretty good in Baltimore last year.

Sean McVay may be the darling of the NFL coaching circles right now but the team came up short against one of the great defensive minds in the NFL last season in the Super Bowl.  Bill Belichick had an answer for basically everything McVay threw at the Patriots last.  If other teams study up on what the Patriots did than McVay will need to be even more innovative this year.  It would help if both Gurley and Kupp are healthy.  The defense is still in the capable hands of Wade Phillips so they should be good enough on that side of the ball.  The Seahawks aren’t going to be a pushover and the 49ers are hoping a healthy Jimmy G gives them a chance in the division but until someone takes it away from them the NFC West is the Rams to lose.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks offense is still very reliant on Russell Wilson to create plays and bail them out of bad situations.  That job is going to be a bit harder this season with his favorite go-to target Doug Baldwin retired.  The team tried to replace Baldwin with rookie DK Metcalf but he’s injured to start the year.  David Moore was looking like a guy that might bring something to the passing game but he’s banged up too.  That leaves the uninspiring Jaron Brown as the best option to line up opposite Tyler Lockett.  Lockett is a good WR but I’m not sure he’s up to the task of being the team’s #1 guy.  Seattle has to hope Chris Carson can get healthy and stay on the field or that second-year RB Rashaad Penny breaks out or their running game will remain pedestrian.  Carson has talent he just can’t seem to stay on the field.  Penny was over drafted a year ago but he’s a talented back too.  TE Nick Vannett is the best of a less than impressive TE group so he’ll have to do for now.  The offensive line played better last year as LT Duane Brown stabilized that position after years of uncertainty.  They aren’t the best line in the NFL but they aren’t the worst anymore like they once were.

The Seahawks have taken a few hits on defense to start the year and it could hurt them.  First, DT Jarran Reed was suspended to start the season.  He was breakout player last year and the team was hoping he would build on the momentum.  They will have to wait for that to happen.  Then 1^st round pick DE LJ Collier sprained his foot/ankle in practice and his return date is still undetermined.  The team was hoping he would help replace the traded Frank Clark and some of his pass rushing production.  The team didn’t have much in the way of proven pass rusher and with Reed and Collier missing time so they pulled off a trade for Jadeveon Clowney from Houston.  Clowney was franchise tagged and wanted out of Houston.  The Seahawks need a pass rusher and while Clowney is a bit overrated as one he’s better than what they have.  He might be a better one when lining up at DE as opposed to OLB like he did in Houston.  At LB the team should be fine with Bobby Wagner getting is extension in the off season and he’ll be flanked by KJ Wright and Shaquem Griffin.  The secondary needs Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers to establish themselves as legitimate NFL CBs.  They both have the talent they just need to show some consistency.  The days of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor scaring the hell out of the Seahawks opponents officially ended when Thomas signed in Baltimore and Chancellor was forced to retire due to injury.  Tedric Thompson and Brad McDougal are not terrible but they are definitely not Thomas and Chancellor.

Pete Carroll is still going strong but the days of his coordinators being hot commodities seems to be over.  Dan Quinn and Gus Bradley were hotshots at one time on the defensive side but Carroll seems content with Ken Norton Jr and Brian Schottenheimer running the defense and the offense respectively.  I don’t think they are the most inventive play callers in the league and it shows in the team’s performance.  Once again, this team is the Russell Wilson show and they will only go as far as Wilson and the defense take them.  This year that puts them behind the Rams once again and they better hope San Francisco doesn’t make a leap with Jimmy G back under center or Seattle could be looking at third in their division.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are hoping for their major investment in Jimmy Garoppolo to finally pay off after he missed last season with an injury.  This team will only go as a far as he can take them.  The offense needs the Jimmy G that played in those first seven games he started for them two years ago because they aren’t exactly teeming with great skill position players.  Don’t get me wrong they have some solid starters but they aren’t the Chiefs or Browns at the skill positions.  The team added RB Tevin Coleman and he should pair nicely with Matt Breida but that’s hardly a dynamic duo.  At WR Marquise Goodwin is good but Dante Pettis has failed to impress this preseason.  Rookie Deebo Samuel should contribute but fellow rookie Jalen Hurd, who has looked good at times, is banged up and probably won’t be ready for the start of the year.  The only skill position where the team has an elite player is TE.  George Kittle was a record-setter last season and with Jimmy G back there is no reason to think he’ll slow down.  He’s a dynamic weapon in the seam and the only guy opponents have to game plan for at this point.  The offensive line is fine but they need Weston Richburg to stay healthy at center and for their guards to be more consistent.

The defense added some key pieces in the off season.  DE Nick Bosa was drafted #2 overall and the team traded for Dee Ford from the Chiefs to juice up the pass rush.  This team wasn’t great at getting to the QB last season so they are hoping these two can get it done.  Bosa was banged up and missed most of the preseason but the team is hoping he is back and healthy early this season.  The team signed Kwon Alexander from Tampa Bay to add speed and athleticism to the LB corps and he certainly does that.  The rest of the group isn’t great but they are hoping with better play up front it will make the LBs better.  The secondary isn’t great but CB Richard Sherman showed he still has something left in the tank last year and the team is hoping he can do it again.  A better pass rush would help their coverage unit a lot but they still need to add some talent and depth here.  It’s not a position where a lot of good players get cut but the team should be scouring the waiver wire after the final roster cuts to see if there is any available help.

Kyle Shanahan is in his third year as head coach but things stalled last year when Garoppolo went down for the season early on.  Once Nick Mullens stepped in at QB the offense wasn’t horrible but it just didn’t have the dynamic element Jimmy G brings.  This is no doubt a Shanahan production on the offensive side and he will use Tevin Coleman and his two rookie WRs to try to add some punch.  The defense is still a bit lacking, especially in the back seven.  Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh still doesn’t have enough to work with but this team should be better than they were and they will finish ahead of the Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are going all in on Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray.  This either works out and completely changes the NFL or it’s an abject failure and Murray is playing baseball in three years while Kingsbury is back coaching in college.  Murray had his moments in the preseason but the truth is it’s hard to assess anyone playing behind this offensive line.  The one major thing that could derail this entire experiment is having Murray get beat up behind a terrible offensive line and his career goes the way of RGIII.  Murray can only run around so much against NFL defenses before he gets creamed and that will be the end of that.  He has some players to work with on this offense if the line can do anything worthwhile.  RB David Johnson is a fantastic player if you give him some room to work.  He’s multi-dimensional and dynamic.  WR Larry Fitzgerald is a future Hall of Famer who still has a little left in the tank and his veteran savvy is worth his weight in gold.  WR Christian Kirk can be a player too.  He had an up-and-down rookie year and was banged up some but he’s actually a really solid fit in Kingsbury’s scheme. The team even signed Michael Crabtree who I’m sure has something to contribute.  At TE they are pedestrian to say the least but I don’t think Kingsbury’s offense is going to live and die by the TE position.  The line is horrendous.  LT DJ Humphries has never lived up to his draft billing and I don’t think he’s going to turn it on now.  OGs JR Sweezy and Justin Pugh are serviceable veterans but that’s about all.  C AQ Shipley is fine but he’s undersized and always has been.  The team traded for RT Marcus Gilbert from Pittsburgh but there’s a reason the Steelers gave him up so easily.

The defense is a mystery.  Vance Joseph comes in to take over after being fired as the Broncos head coach after two years.  He failed at the head coaching gig but he’s been a good defensive coordinator before.  The team will play a 3-4 defense primarily and the three-man front will consist of holdover Corey Peters and Rodney Gunter and rookie Zach Allen.  I like Allen, he’s a tough player with some solid moves.  At LB they signed Terrell Suggs from Baltimore to pair as the other OLB with Chandler Jones.  Suggs was still a useful player last season even at his advanced age.  It’s a homecoming for Suggs as he played collegiately at Arizona St. If he can still generate some pressure, he will really help Jones, he really hasn’t had a good running mate while in Arizona.  Jones is an effective player but he needs some help.  The team also signed the oft-injured Jordan Hicks to pair with Hassan Reddick at ILB.  Reddick has failed to get his feet under him at ILB and I guess the hope is that Hicks’ veteran presence will help him figure it out.  The best player on the defense would be Patrick Peterson but he’s suspended to start the year.  The suspension might not matter since the team was looking to trade Peterson, all the suspension did was put that on hold.  Peterson is very expensive and probably not worth the money while this team is rebuilding.  He would have fetched a nice trade package before the suspension, now the team will wait and see what they can get for him.  Byron Murphy was a possible first-round pick who fell to the second where the Cardinals picked him and now, he’ll start at CB opposite Trumaine Brock.  It’s not a Pro Bowl pairing but the team could do worse.  Budda Baker is a solid safety but I’m not a fan of DJ Swearinger, although I don’t think this defense is going to struggle because of Swearinger, they have plenty of other reasons to struggle.

The Kingsbury/Murray experiment is an interesting one and could have major implications moving forward.  Murray is an undersized uber-athlete with a live arm and a tendency to hold the ball too long and try to make a play.  That’s a lot of compliments and complaints about someone in the same sentence.  Kingsbury was a Texas Tech alum who failed to turn his former team into a winner and got fired from his college job and then somehow went from accepting a college offensive coordinator job (at USC) to being hired as the head coach of an NFL team.  There are a lot of ways this goes bad and for this season I’m pretty sure it’s going to be bad.  I can’t predict where this will go but if I were a betting man, I would say there’s a better chance Kliff Kingsbury is Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator at USC in three years than there is he’s still coaching Kyler Murray in Arizona.

 

New England Patriots

What is there to say about the defending Super Bowl champs?  As long as Belichick and Brady are around this division belongs to the Patriots.  The offense will change a little bit this season as TE Rob Gronkowski has called it a career.  He was a major security blanket for Brady and with him gone Brady will likely rely on WR Julian Edelman that much more.  The WR corps looks very deep, much deeper than it’s been in years.  Josh Gordon was reinstated from his 197^th suspension (it might be less than that it just feels like that many).  If Gordon can stay on the field, he’s an exceptional talent.  The team drafted N’Keal Harry in round one and he will bring a big, physical presence to the offense, once he’s off injured reserve.  Phillip Dorsett and Demaryius Thomas are two veterans looking to make their mark while Jakobi Meyers, an undrafted free agent out of NC State has looked very good in preseason action.  RB Sony Michel was excellent when he was healthy last season and he can be the work horse while James White remains one of Brady’s favorite weapons out of the backfield.  The team also drafted Damien Harris from Alabama to try to take some pressure off of Michel as an every down back.  The offensive line lost Trent Brown at LT but the team drafted Isaiah Wynn last year in the first round and now he’s slated to take that spot.  He missed his rookie year with an injury but he should be fine for the regular season this year.

The defense isn’t flashy, they don’t get a lot of sacks and the ones they do get they don’t get from a traditional pass rush.  The do create turnovers by getting a lot of interceptions and that comes from playing tough defense that makes teams earn every yard and they just wait for their opportunities.  The defensive line replaces one solid veteran, Trey Flowers, with another solid veteran, Michael Bennett.  The LB corps gets Dont’a Hightower back healthy and adds Jamie Collins after his last few years spent in Cleveland.  Both of these guys add elements the Patriots can use to create pass rush.  CB Stephon Gilmore is the one true standout in the secondary while S Devin McCourty is the rock the secondary is built on.  Gilmore is one of the best CBs in football which makes life harder on the guy lining up across from him.  The team has veteran Jason McCourty and youngsters JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones holding down the fort.  This team won’t rely too heavily on rookies but if one does play on defense Joejuan Williams is a safe bet to be that guy.  He has versatility in the back end and Belichick loves that.

Belichick still has Josh McDaniels around to call the offense and with Brady at the controls things will run smoothly on the that side of the ball.  That’s good because in the last two years the Patriots lost defensive coordinator Matt Patricia (two years ago) and defensive play caller Brian Flores (this off season).  Belichick never named Flores his defensive coordinator last year and he has yet to name one for this year, he probably won’t.  In the preseason it has been said that Jerod Mayo, a former MLB for the Patriots and an assistant coach, has been calling the defense.  Mayo was the signal caller when he played so he should be fine handling the duties but he only gets the benefit of the doubt because it seems Belichick has signed off on it.  If any other coach tried this move it wouldn’t go over well but when you’ve won 6 Super Bowls no one questions you.  The Patriots are my pick to win the Super Bowl, that would be lucky #7.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills invested a first-round pick in QB Josh Allen last season and this year they invested free agent dollars and draft capital to surround him with a better supporting cast. The drafted Devin Singletary and signed free agents Frank Gore and TJ Yeldon, that’s a good thing because they let LeSean McCoy go.  It makes for an interesting group in the backfield. Frank Gore still has some juice left while Singletary is an investment in the future and Yeldon is really good in the passing game.  They are covered in the backfield.  Last year was pretty awful at WR so they signed John Brown to be the deep speed guy and they signed Cole Beasley to be the slot guy.  Brown finally gives the team a guy who can get deep enough to take advantage of Allen’s incredible arm strength while Beasley is a move-the-chains kind of guy that Allen should really learn to love.  At TE the team signed Tyler Kroft and drafted Dawson Knox to remake the position into one that will be useful to Allen.  On the offensive line the team signed free agents Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain and Jon Feliciano to be starters on the inside and drafted Cody Ford to start at RT.  They also signed Ty Nsekhe to bring depth.  That’s a lot of new starters on offense but they team needed a reboot on that side of the ball.  They aren’t going to compete with New England this year but with a better offense this team could push for a wildcard spot.

The offense only has to be average to give this team a shot at the playoff because this defense is really good.  They were the #2 overall defense last season and they have a shot to be even better.  The only real loss was DT Kyle Williams who retired and they replaced him with first-round pick Ed Oliver, he may actually be an upgrade.  With the continued growth of LBs Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano this defense could actually improve.  The rest of the d-line is solid and at times excellent.  The secondary can be lights out with CB Tre’Davious White and S Micah Hyde leading the way.  DE Jerry Hughes has to stave off any drop off with his age if the team wants to continue being dominant but it would help if former 1^st round pick Shaq Lawson could produce a little at DE.  Oliver will help their pass rush as he’s a better penetrator than Kyle Williams was so that should help the entire line be more effective.

Sean McDermott knows how to coach defense which is why the team nearly stood pat on the unit they already have, with the exception of adding Oliver.  On offense they needed to surround Allen with some actual playmakers and try to protect their asset, they did both those things.  I think Brown and Beasley are in for big years at WR and Allen will take a step forward if the offensive line comes together to protect him.  New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has been around a lot of good coaches (Bill Belichick and Nick Saban) and he knows how to call an offense.  The defense is in good hands with McDermott and his excellent defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.  The Bills should out duel the Jets for second place in the AFC East.

New York Jets

The Jets have their QB in second-year man Sam Darnold.  He had a solid rookie year considering he wasn’t exactly surrounded by amazing talent and the coaching staff was on the way out.  Now he has a new coaching staff and while the talent level is still a little lacking it’s getting better.  The major off-season addition was RB LeVeon Bell.  After sitting out last season in a holdout Bell signed a massive deal as a free agent.  He’s the best RB the Jets have had in a while and he gives Darnold a weapon all over the field.  The WR corps isn’t great but Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa get the job done.  Anderson can be dynamic but he’s not consistent and he has some off-the-field issues from time to time.  TE Chris Herndon looked good last year but he’ll start the season on suspension so that’s not going to help.  Ryan Griffin was signed to help out there but I’m not sold on him.  The offensive line is where things could go wrong.  OTs Kelvin Beachum and Brandon Shell are nothing special.  Kelechi Osemele came over in a trade from Oakland and while he’s an upgrade over what they had at LG his play isn’t what it used to be.  RG Brian Winters isn’t bad but he isn’t being helped much by the guys around him.  The team was so desperate at center they talked 34-year old Ryan Kalil out of retirement and he immediately stepped in as a starter, that’s not a good sign.

The defense has a chance to be good under the direction of new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.  There is talent at each level but they do have some trouble spots to worry about.  On the defensive line Leonard Williams is fantastic and rookie first-rounder Quinnen Williams is one to be excited about.  At LB, newly signed free agent CJ Mosley is as sure as they come in the middle and his leadership and presence will make a difference in the middle of the line.  They lost there other starting ILB Avery Williamson to an injury but I think they will be okay.  I really like rookie Blake Cashman out of Minnesota, he can be a player.  SS Jamal Adams is a tone-setter for the defense and he’s paired with FS Marcus Maye who’s better than he gets credit for because he’s overshadowed by Adams.  Even with all they have going for them the trouble spots could be big trouble.  They don’t have an elite edge rusher to get to the QB.  They had drafted Jachai Polite, a guy that fell in the draft, hoping he might bring some pass rushing help.  His preseason was apparently as bad as his pre-draft workouts and he was cut before the season.  At CB Trumaine Johnson was solid last year and nickelback Brian Poole is a proven commodity but they are not deep beyond those two.  If your defense doesn’t rush the passer well and you don’t have great coverage in the secondary there is a limit to how good you can be.

Adam Gase is the new head coach and he got the GM who hired him fired and brought in a GM he could work with in Joe Douglas.  Gase was once considered a young offensive genius, much like Sean McVay is now.  That was only a few short years ago.  It goes to show you offensive genius only takes you so far, you have to have some good players (and QBs named Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler don’t count).  Gase has a QB to work with now and he was smart enough to hire a great defensive coordinator to run that side of the ball, Gregg Williams will do well even with less than ideal talent.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a team looking for a direction and at the end of the preseason they chose that direction, it’s all the way down.  New head coach Brian Flores is going to try to bring the Patriot way to Miami but they are essentially starting the team from scratch.  There is no more obvious place this is relevant than at the QB position.  The team signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to be a placeholder as they waited until the 2020 draft to find their QB of the future.  Then the Cardinals took Kyler Murray with the first pick of the 2019 draft and Dolphins made a trade for Josh Rosen.  They aren’t overly committed to Rosen financially but for now he’s behind the 36-year old Fitzpatrick as the starting QB which makes no sense.  The team needs to see if Rosen is worth investing in long-term and they aren’t going to find that out with him on the bench.  The team has little talent on offense.  RB Kenyan Drake is hurt but he should be back at some point.  DeVante Parker offers some talent to throw to as does TE Mike Gesicki.  LT Laremy Tunsil was the only elite player on the offense and they traded him to Houston along with WR Kenny Stills for future 1^st round picks.  They need to invest up front and make a decision on their future QB, Rosen is a talented guy, they need to know if he’s the answer.

Flores is going to call the defense and it’s likely to be a tough year as the team is lacking pretty much throughout the entire unit.  DE Charles Harris is likely their top pass rusher, that’s not a good thing.  DT Christian Wilkins was a first-round pick and he’s a solid building block but the d-line is pretty poor overall.  I like MLB Raekwon MacMillan and WLB Jerome Baker, they are playmakers who just need a little help in front of them.  Kiko Alonso was a solid veteran presence at the other LB spot but they traded him to New Orleans.  CB Xavien Howard is a top-flight cover man and the best player on this defense and it’s not even close.  The team has Reshad Jones, Bobby McCain and Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety but their other CB is Eric Rowe.  Flores brought Rowe with him from New England and as a Patriots fan all I can say is Thank You.  Sorry but Rowe is terrible and with teams trying to avoid Howard and throwing to Rowe’s side it could be a long year for the Dolphins defense.

Flores has the right temperament to be a great head coach and he worked in so many different capacities for the Patriots over the years he has tons of knowledge to fall back on.  He brought Chad O’Shea along from the New England to be his offensive coordinator and it’s up to O’Shea to get the best out of the talent they don’t have.  It will be easier to do once they decide on a QB, as long as that QB is Rosen.  The Dolphins are my choice to be the worst team in the NFL this season and set themselves up to have their pick of one of the top QBs in next year’s draft.  It would be wise to know if they need to invest in Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert or if Rosen can be the guy moving forward.  Unfortunately for Miami it doesn’t look like the Dolphins are very wise.