I was very close to publishing my second NFL mock draft and then the 49ers, Dolphins and Eagles decided to get drunk and start trading picks like baseball cards.  So, I have to go back to the beginning (well, back to pick #3 anyway) and start over so that’s going to take some time.  However, the Iowa Hawkeye Football Team stared spring practice this week and Kirk Ferentz released a pre-spring two-deeps.  Clearly, he did it just to mess with us because then he held a press conference to kick off spring practice and told us some of it’s not current.  I have to say, good job on the timing though because we all needed something to take our minds off the men’s basketball team.  So, I’m diving in like this depth chart means something (it doesn’t) because the mock draft is driving me crazy (seriously, if the 49ers traded all the way up to #3 for Mac Jones, I’m not sure what the hell to expect at the draft).

Quarterback

Starter: Spencer Petras

Backup: Alex Padilla

It isn’t surprising Petras is the starter, he started every game last season.  He didn’t start the year well but he played better late in the season.  He has all the arm talent in the world he just has to learn how to take a little off and to try not to decapitate the guys running the shallow cross.  He is going to have to adjust his deep ball too because while Tyrone Tracy is fast, Usain Bolt at his top speed couldn’t catch up when Petras uncorks one.  Hopefully, having a full spring practice, summer workouts and a complete fall camp will allow him the time to get his timing down with his new WR corps. 

Ferentz listed Alex Padilla, last year’s back up in the back up spot all by himself just to annoy all the message board fans who have already anointed freshman Deuce Hogan the next great Hawkeye QB.  I’m as excited about Hogan’s potential as anyone but I’m also excited to see if Petras can develop his skills.  Padilla looks like a solid back up and he plays the game a little differently, he’s a bit more mobile than Petras or Hogan.  My read of things is that Padilla will spend more time fending off Hogan for the backup job than competing with Petras for the starting one.  

Running Back

Starter: Tyler Goodson

Backup: Ivory Kelly-Martin

Goodson was an All-Big Ten RB last year and he’s the most talented RB Iowa has had since Shonn Greene.  He could absolutely break out this year and he’s most likely going to have to carry the load because the Hawks don’t have a ton of depth.  As a matter of fact, for spring practice I would advise the coaching staff to wrap Goodson in bubble wrap and store him in a safe location somewhere.  They can let him out in the fall before the first game. 

The reason I say that is because his listed back up is Ivory Kelly-Martin who isn’t even available for spring practice because he tore his ACL in December.  Not sure if he’s even going to be completely healthy when the season starts.  Unfortunately, this has become a theme of Kelly-Martin’s career, he’s a talented guy who just can’t catch a break when it comes to injuries. Ferentz mentioned the team has a plan A and a plan B at RB, many believe he was talking about moving someone from a different position to RB if need be (early entrant freshman WR Arland Bruce was a RB in high school).  I’m fairly certain Ferentz meant last year’s freshmen RBs Gavin Williams and Leshon Williams were plan A and plan B for the spring.  New RB coach Ladell Betts has his work cut out for him this spring.

Monte Pottebaum will be the starting FB and he should be quite good.  

Wide Receivers

Starters: Tyrone Tracy, Nico Ragaini 

Backups: Charlie Jones, Max Cooper

The first position of major change on offense is WR.  Last year we often saw three WRs listed as starting with Brandon Smith, Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Nico Ragaini all listed.  Ragaini is still a starter and will see most of the snaps in the slot. He’s the reliable guy over the middle who should bail Petras out in a pinch assuming Petras doesn’t kill him with a pass. Tracy moves up from the jack-of-all trades backup, filling in at any spot, to the starter outside who Iowa needs to become a #1 WR.  Tracy is an electric playmaker and getting him the ball more often should be good for the offense.  If he can establish a connection with Petras it could mean big things on offense.

Charlie Jones moves up from punt returner to the third receiver spot and the Hawkeyes were used to using three-receiver sets so he should get plenty of snaps.  He showed he can be a big play guy last season now he just has to translate it to the offense.  Max Cooper is returning for an extra year after being injured plenty during his career and it’s nice he’s listed as a backup here but he’s going to have to really improve to hold off the young guys.  Desmond Hutson is a big WR who will be looking to fill the Brandon Smith role.  True freshmen early enrollees Keegan Johnson and Arland Bruce are also looking to make a splash.  Both guys are playmakers and could find a role but I would especially keep an eye on Johnson, he could really fill a need outside for the Hawkeyes. 

Tight End

Starter: Sam LaPorta

Backup: Luke Lachey

LaPorta is another major piece to the passing game that could really blow up if he established a connection with Petras.  He has all the athleticism and skill needed to be a major playmaker for the Hawkeyes.  The offense was inconsistent last year in the passing game and that was mostly on Petras and his struggles.  LaPorta should be his security blanket especially in the red zone. 

Lachey is a freshman who is a seriously imposing figure on the field.  He’s 6’6 and very athletic. He is the son of a former NFL lineman so he comes by his size naturally and he will be a big target for Petras (he should be hard to overthrow and Petras shouldn’t take that as a challenge).  It will be interesting if Josiah Miamen or Elijah Yelverton can make a move for playing time. 

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Jack Plumb, LG Kyler Schott, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Justin Britt, RT Cody Ince

Backups: LT Mason Richman, LG Tyler Elsbury, C Noah Fenske, RG Josh Volk, RT Nick DeJong

The offensive line is looking at some major changes and I’m not just talking about the new o-line coach George Barnett.  There are only two guys with significant starting experience and the other three listed starters have a just a few games under their belts.  There is also quite a bit of shifting around going on.  Barnett is going to have his work cut out for him finding the best combination of five starters, luckily Kirk and Brian both have ample offensive line experience. 

The line is built around likely Pre-season All-American C Tyler Linderbaum.  He goes into the season as the most experienced player with two years of starting experience and the leading contender for the Rimington Award.  He’s a great place to start the rebuild of the line.  Kyler Schott has started at guard quite a bit but he hasn’t always stayed healthy.  It would be helpful if he can lock down one of the guard spots and be consistent inside next to Linderbaum.  Cody Ince is listed as the RT after starting numerous games at guard last year but Kirk Ferentz let it be known Ince would miss spring practice with an injury so his spot at RT is tenuous at best.  Justin Britt played as a true freshman two years ago but didn’t play much last season.  He’s a talented guy and I’m guessing the Hawkeyes will try him all over the line.  He could play just about anywhere so don’t be surprised if he gets some time at RT.  Jack Plumb filled in last season at RT when injuries took out several players and the team had to shift guys around.  This season he’s the leader for the LT spot after Mark Kallenberger gave up football in the off season.  For a guy who was sort of thrown to the wolves at RT last season Plumb did pretty well.  He’s a talented guy but he will face competition, that’s a good thing, the best five will play. 

The back ups are very young, it’s a good thing Iowa has recruited so well at offensive line over the past few years.  Mason Richmond and Nick DeJong will certainly give the starters competition at OT while Josh Volk, Tyler Endres and Noah Fenske find their places on the interior of the line.  Two early enrollee freshmen, David Davidkov and Connor Colby are both elite prospects.  They didn’t enroll early to stand around and watch, they will compete.  I’m excited about the future of the offensive line.   

Defensive Line

Starters: DE Zach VanValkenburg, DE John Waggoner, DT Noah Shannon, DT Yahya Black

Backups: DE Joe Evans, DE Chris Reames, DT Logan Jones, DT Logan Lee

Zach VanValkenburg is taking advantage of the NCAA granting anyone who wants it an extra year of eligibility because of Covid.  That’s good news for the Hawkeyes because he’s the only returning starter on the defensive line and really the only guy with meaningful playing time.  On his opposite side is John Waggoner lining up at DE.  Waggoner was a highly regarded recruit who hasn’t lived up to the billing and has bounced around between end and tackle a bit.  This is his chance to emerge as an actual threat at DE and he wouldn’t be the first guy to make a jump later in his career (VanValkenburg did it just last year).  Noah Shannon has precious little playing time at DT and being a starter is a big opportunity, the Hawkeyes need him to take advantage of.  Yahya Black is a freshman who played a bit last season as at DE but he’s grown into a DT and must have impressed the staff in the off season.  There will certainly be plenty of competition on the defensive line as there just isn’t much experience to go around. 

Joe Evans is listed as one backup at DE and he should play the same role he has the last couple of seasons as a designated pass rusher.  He could have a chance to unseat Waggoner in the starting lineup if he can prove he has the ability to hold up in the run game.  He’s always been undersized for a DE so that’s his challenge.  Chris Reames is not a name we have seen before but it’s encouraging that he’s broken through enough to at least make the two-deeps.  He will have competition from some younger guys for sure.  The Logans are the backups at tackle. Logan Jones and Logan Lee are two young guys who have loads of potential.  Jones is a freak in the weight room and he has plenty of skills to match.  Lee is a guy who is just trying to find his place.  I think the defensive line will be a lot like the offensive line this spring as coaches will move guys all over trying to find the best combination.  I would say the only thing to count on is VanValkenburg and Evans will be DEs, other than that, anything can happen. 

Linebackers

Starters:  MLB Seth Benson, WLB Jack Campbell

Backups: Jestin Jacobs, Jay Higgins, Logan Klemp

The Hawkeyes are going to play two LBs most of the time this season with Dane Belton lining up at the Cash position.  Both Benson and Campbell played MLB last season and for now Benson will be the MLB and Campbell will use his immense athletic skills to play the Will LB spot.  The two of them both played well in limited time last season and while they have some big shoes to fill with Nick Niemann leaving, they seem up to the task. 

Jestin Jacobs has been a bit of a tease in his time at Iowa as he was a highly touted prospect who has had some injury issues slow down his development.  He’s a very athletic guy with great size and the hope is that he can carve out some playing time for himself.  Higgins can contribute on special teams and the coaching staff clearly likes his potential, he’s a young guy who needs a little more physical development.  Logan Klemp is a name we haven’t seen much and he’s listed behind Dane Belton at Cash but it just means he’s the fifth LB. That’s good news for him but he has to hold off some freshmen coming in; Justice Sullivan and Zach Twedt. 

Defensive Backs

Starters: Cash Dane Belton, CB Matt Hankins, CB Riley Moss, SS Kaevon Merriweather, FS Jack Koerner

Backups: CB Terry Roberts, CB Jermari Harris, S Reggie Bracy, S Quinn Schulte

The Hawkeyes got a second unexpected surprise (VanValkenburg being the first) when Matt Hankins decided to stay at Iowa for another year.  Hankins is a multi-year starter and having him return means Iowa’s entire starting secondary remains intact.  Hankins is joined by Riley Moss who started all last season at CB.  They are two proven players on he outside and given Iowa’s questions up front it’s nice to have some certainty in the secondary. Kaevon Merriweather and Jack Koerner return at safety after starting last year and both of them can be playmakers.  Dane Belton is back to man the Cash position, the LB/S/CB hybrid position Amani Hooker established a couple years ago.  He’s a big-time playmaker and in certain alignments he can line up as a traditional safety.

Terry Roberts and Jermari Harris are listed as the backup CBs and that might be the case but there is one guy to keep an eye on, Xavior Williams.  Williams is a grad transfer from UNI and while he has the versatility to play both safety and corner, I would expect him to get time at CB.  He didn’t transfer to Iowa to sit and watch and I don’t think Kirk Ferentz would have taken him as a transfer if he didn’t think he would play. Reggie Bracy is a young guy at safety making his way up the depth chart and Quinn Schulte is a walk-on listed as a backup.  Usually seeing a walk-on in the two deeps ahead of scholarship players is disconcerting, but not at Iowa where it’s pretty commonplace and a little expected. Nothing is locked in here, there are some young guys still looking to make some noise. 

Kicker and Punter

Caleb Shudak is also taking advantage of the Covid year extension to return and hoping to get one final shot at being the field goal kicker after being the kickoff specialist the past few years.  He has sat behind Keith Duncan waiting for this opportunity but he will have to hold off a couple of young guys Aaron Blom and Lucas Amaya.  Tory Taylor came in last season as a freshman from Australia who had never played in an American football game before and all he did was win the Big Ten Punter of the Year award.  He is not competing for his job this year, he’s competing for the Ray Guy Award. 

I’ve been working on this Mock Draft for a while now but the NFL seems to throw a wrench into it every so often by trading QBs.  I even held it a bit just to hedge against Deshaun Watson getting trading and now there’s even talk of Russell Wilson being moved.  Apparently, anything can happen these days at QB (Tom Brady did just win a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers).  This is an even more interesting draft cycle than last year because there isn’t going to be a combine (last year’s combined occurred just before the pandemic took hold).  The Senior Bowl did take place but this year teams will rely heavily on school pro days (most of those were cancelled last year due to Covid-19).  There are lots of new coaches, lots of new general managers and QBs changing teams left and right, making a mock draft is basically like nailing Jell-O to the wall.  There are only two things I think I can count on; the Jaguars are taking Trevor Lawrence (even they aren’t dumb enough to screw that up) and I’ll likely be upset either by the pick Bill Belichick makes at #15 or at the fact he trades down and still picks someone I don’t like.  Anyway, enjoy this Mock Draft, it should be outdated in 3…2…1…

2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15):  Trevor Lawrence      QB      Clemson

The Jaguars were terrible at exactly the right time, franchise saviors don’t come around very often and here sits Trevor Lawrence.  Now the team has hired Urban Meyer as their coach and he’s running things for all intents and purposes.  Not only is Meyer all in for Lawrence but owner Shad Khan isn’t going to pass on the best QB prospect in a couple of decades and a true face of the franchise player.  Lawrence is as good of a QB prospect as there has been since Peyton Manning, some say Andrew Luck but I’m saying Manning.  He has all the physical gifts teams covet, his mental makeup is unquestionable and he’s the type of leader every franchise desires.  Some players might wilt under the pressure of being a franchise savior, not Lawrence. He has been in the spotlight since his high school days as an elite recruit and he spent three years at Clemson knowing anything less than a National Championship was considered a failure, pressure is nothing new to him.  There is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to the NFL draft but Lawrence comes as close as you can get.

2. New York Jets (2-14):  Zach Wilson      QB      BYU

I’m putting Wilson second in this mock draft but I’m not convinced, yet, he’ll be headed to the Jets.  I think he rises to the 2^nd pick but I think the Jets could trade it away to a team looking for a new young QB (Atlanta, Carolina, Denver).  The Jets hired Robert Saleh as their new head coach and he is the anti-Adam Gase.  Saleh is a defensive minded coach who is a leader and a motivator.  He is bringing 49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur with him to run the offense.  I think that could be good news for Sam Darnold and I think the Jets may see if they can parlay this pick into some more help for Darnold and the team overall.  Wilson has the size and the arm teams are looking for and I could see a team moving up to get him.  If the Jets can get a top 10 pick in this draft and pick up another 1^st next year or more picks this year it would be a great move.  If the new coaching staff can un-Gase Sam Darnold he still has plenty of talent and potential, if they think he’s a lost cause, they can just draft Wilson themselves and send Darnold off in a trade.  This one is still up in the air.      

3. Miami Dolphins (from Houston):  Ja’Marr Chase      WR      LSU

The Dolphins spent a lot of draft capital on the offense last year getting Tua Tagovailoa at QB and then drafting multiple linemen to protect him.  That was a solid start but Tua struggled at times this season.  Coming off his knee injury and not having an off season or full training camp didn’t help but neither does his lack of weapons on offense.  DeVante Parker has always looked the part of a #1 WR but he’s only sporadically played like one.  Parker is also a pending free agent the Dolphins might not want to pay the going rate.  Chase has been out-of-sight/out-of-mind after opting out of LSU’s season.  He has lost some ground to Heisman trophy winner DeVonta Smith but I still think Chase gets drafted before Smith.  Smith is a dynamic player but so is Chase and Chase is bigger WR and brings more physicality to the position. 

4. Atlanta Falcons (4-12):  Justin Fields     QB     Ohio St.

Matt Ryan will be 36 next year and while he can still play at a high level the end isn’t too far away for him.  If the team doesn’t make a move for Wilson, Fields is a Georgia native who is extremely skilled but he needs some polish.  He isn’t a finished product and taking a year or two to learn from a pro like Ryan would probably do his development a ton of good.  Fields is an excellent prospect with great athleticism and a rocket for an arm.  His biggest issue is processing defenses.  Like a lot of college QBs his offensive system makes it easier on him than the NFL will be and when in doubt he uses his legs to get out of trouble.  New head coach Arthur Smith did wonders with Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee and he could develop Fields while Ryan is still around.  Drafting a QB of the future isn’t a bad idea when you’re picking in the top five and your current QB is 36. 

5. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1):  Penei Sewell      OT      Oregon

Another top prospect coming off an opt out season, Sewell is one of the better OT prospects in a long time.  He has all the qualities of an elite LT and the scary thing is he just turned 20 back in October.  The Bengals made Joe Burrow their franchise player last season and then he got hurt.  Playing behind a horrible offensive line is not good for an elite QB prospect.  Drafting Sewell would mean they can plug him in at LT and move Jonah Williams to either RT or inside to guard.  The team may have to move up to even get Sewell because he might not last this long.  I’m not predicting trades in this mock draft but the QBs dominate up top so he falls here.  This is the best choice for the team’s overall future. There are some that think Sewell might not end up at LT long-term, I’m not one of those people. 

6. Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1):  Rashawn Slater      OL      Northwestern

The Eagles were a dumpster fire last season as the Carson Wentz era unraveled and Jalen Hurts stepped in at QB.  They traded Wentz to the Colts and now they need to surround Hurts with better talent.  After years of having a strong offensive line, age and injury have taken its toll.  Jason Peters seems to have finally reached the end of the road, Andre Dillard, Brandon Brooks, and Lane Johnson all had injury issues.  Slater has the versatility to play LT if the team feels Dillard isn’t the future there but if Dillard proves to be the guy then Slater will be an excellent OG.  New head coach Nick Sirianni was brought in to get this team headed in the right direction and he knows the best thing you can do for a QB is build a solid line to protect him.  Sirianni had one of the best lines in Indianapolis and while Slater isn’t the sexy pick, he’s an extremely important one. 

7. Detroit Lions (5-11):  DeVonta Smith     WR      Alabama

So, the Lions and Rams pulled off one of the biggest trades I’ve ever seen in the NFL.  It’s not often you see two starting QBs traded for each other.  It’s a new era in Detroit with Matthew Stafford off to LA and new GM Brad Holmes and new head coach Dan Campbell have to build an offense around Jared Goff.  I think they will pass on a QB for now unless someone falls here or they decide to cash in some of the draft capital from the trade to move up.  Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are all free agents this off season and Jared Goff is going to throw a lot of incompletions next season if the Lions don’t get some receivers to catch his passes.  Smith just became the first WR to win the Heisman Trophy in 30 years and rightfully so.  He was excellent and when Alabama lost his best running mate at WR, Jaylen Waddle, Smith just got better. He was basically uncoverable all season and his footwork, technique and route running are all top-notch and he should make an immediate impact.   

8. Carolina Panthers (5-11):  Micah Parsons      LB      Penn St.

The Panthers could pull the trigger on a new QB but they have Teddy Bridgewater signed for two more years and guys like Trey Lance and Mac Jones are not on the same level as prospects as Micah Parsons.  Parsons is another guy who opted out of the season but he’s an athletic freak with incredible instincts and can play multiple positions.  I think Matt Rhule will see Parsons as the missing piece to their defense.  Parsons would join Shaq Thompson in the LB corps and he would bring as much versatility as Thompson.  Parsons can line up at MLB or OLB and he would be equally as effective and he’s a three-down LB, a rarity in today’s game.  He can blitz off the edge and get to the QB and I’ve sure DE Brian Burns would appreciate the help putting pressure on opposing QBs.  The Panthers spent all of their draft picks on defense last season and Parsons would solidify that side of the ball for the future.  This choice might simply be because I’m not as enamored with Trey Lance as others.    

9. Denver Broncos (5-11):  Kwity Paye      DE/OLB      Michigan

Bradley Chubb is an emerging force for the defense but Von Miller will be 32 next season, he’s coming off a serious injury and he’s very expensive.  The Broncos defense works better with two pass rushers and while Malik Reed looks like a nice player Paye looks like an immediate impact player.  He is big, fast and physical and he’s just scratching the surface of his talent.  The team also needs help at CB so Patrick Surtain II and Caleb Farley will be in play here and lots of mock drafts will have a QB here.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they take a CB here but I would be surprised if they take a QB.  I don’t see Trey Lance or Mac Jones being an immediate upgrade over Drew Lock and I think if they move away from Lock, they are more likely to go after a veteran alternative, those are dwindling fast unless they can pull off a miracle trade for either Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. 

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-10):  Patrick Surtain II      CB      Alabama

The team fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan after the season and while I never thought Nolan was a great choice for the position blaming him for their terrible defense is like handing a mechanic a toothbrush and being upset he can’t rebuild your engine with it.  They spent a lot of draft capital over the years stacking their offense, time for the defense to get some help.  They drafted Alabama CB Trevon Diggs in the second-round last year, this time they go for his more talented former teammate.  Surtain is a fantastic player with unbelievable technique and outstanding physical gifts, he has good genes (his father was a long time NFL CB).  He’s a legitimate #1 CB and he would be the replacement for Byron Jones they team didn’t find last season.

11. New York Giants (6-10):  Azeez Ojulari      OLB      Georgia

There’s always that guy who no one is really talking about right now who ends up going higher than anyone expected.  My pick this year is Ojulari.  He’s an athletically gifted LB from Georgia who is a bit small for your typical rush LB but he’s so fast and athletic that he just makes plays. He can come off the edge and use speed or power to beat his man and that makes him a matchup nightmare. The Giants defense needs to generate pass rush and in general just make plays, Ojulari does that. He isn’t a household name but I think teams are going to come around after they get a better look at the plays he made and once they see his athleticism up close.   

12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10):  Caleb Farley      CB      Virginia Tech

Richard Sherman was the 49ers #1 CB again this year at the age of 32.  He’s not really a #1 CB anymore but on a team that has a bunch of #3 CBs he stands out.  The problem is Sherman is a free agent this off season, he’ll be a 33-year-old CB next year and he just made $8 million this year.  Even if the 49ers could to bring him back, most of their other CBs are free agents too and they really should restock the position with some talent.  Farley opted out of Virginia Tech’s season but he checks all the boxes you want in a CB and he’s a talented player.  CB isn’t a very deep position at the top of this draft and there’s a pretty big drop off after Surtain and Farley.  Farley is worth the investment and fills a major need. 

13. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9):  Christian Darrisaw      OT      Virginia Tech

The Chargers have found their QB of the future in Justin Herbert, now they have their new head coach in former Rams DC Brandon Staley.  Herbert outplayed most expectations as a rookie, including mine, but imagine how good he could be if the Chargers actually fixed their offensive line.  Darrisaw might not be the next Orlando Pace but he’s a legitimate 10-year starting LT in the NFL.  He’s big, physical, athletic and experienced.  He would be a massive upgrade over basically anyone who has started at LT for the Chargers for several years.  Investing in some protection for Herbert is the smart play. 

14. Minnesota Vikings (7-9):  Alijah Vera-Tucker      OL      USC

The Vikings will be looking for cap space this off season and LT Riley Reiff is a prime candidate to be let go.  The team drafted Ezra Cleveland last year as the heir apparent at LT but he ended up starting inside at OG some this year.  If Cleveland does move outside the team needs someone to replace him inside.  Vera-Tucker played LT at USC and while he may be able to do so in the pros most projections have him sliding inside to guard.  He would be a great athletic match at LG next to Cleveland at LT and the Vikings need to keep their offensive line strong considering how much they rely on the run game. 

15. New England Patriots (7-9):  Kyle Pitts      TE      Florida

This would be a dream scenario for the Patriots as Kyle Pitts is an amazing playmaker at TE.  I don’t actually believe he will fall this far because he’s legitimately one of the 7 or 8 most talented players in this draft, the problem is finding a spot where he fits before this.  Not many teams in the top 14 here are going to prioritize the TE position.  So many teams already have good young TEs (San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, LA Chargers, Philadelphia, NY Giants). The teams that need TEs (Jacksonville, NY Jets, Cincinnati) are picking high enough to take more important positions.  Pitts is a certainly worthy of a top 10 pick.  He’s an athletic freak who will be a matchup nightmare.  He’s not another Rob Gronkowski for the Patriots, he’s more along the lines of Jimmy Graham early in his career.  The Patriots need playmakers and Pitts is one of the best in the entire draft, he instantly makes the offense better regardless of who plays QB.  If Pitts isn’t here, I would be more than happy to see the Patriots take Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle.   

16. Arizona Cardinals (8-8):  Jaycee Horn      CB      South Carolina

Patrick Peterson is a free agent this off season and even if the Cardinals can bring him back, they aren’t exactly stacked at CB.  Dre Kirkpatrick was signed early in the year to a one-year deal as a stop-gap, he’s not exactly the future at the position.  Horn is big and physical CB who still needs some refinement but he’s the next guy after Surtain and Farley.  This team could look at an edge rusher considering Haason Reddick is a free agent and Chandler Jones only has one year left on his contract.  However, the pass rushers in this draft are all pretty raw so a CB would help them out a lot sooner.   

17. Las Vegas Raiders (8-8):  Daviyon Nixon      DT      Iowa

It’s possible the Raiders go for a new QB and let Derek Carr go but they should really try to run it back on offense and fix a defense that is severely undermanned.  DTs Jonathan Hankins and Maliek Collins are pending free agents and the team can do better.  They need to juice their pass rush and Nixon is a penetrating DT who will play the run and collapse the pocket. Having him on the inside would also help take the pressure off the edge rushers and that would help the pass rush overall.  Nixon only started eight games at Iowa but he made them count and he looks like a terror to deal with on the inside of the defensive line.  The Raiders are like the other teams in the AFC West trying to catch up to the Chiefs, the problem is if they don’t fix their defense, they could end up chasing the Chargers very soon and the Broncos if they ever figure out their QB position.    

18. Miami Dolphins (10-6):  Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah      LB      Notre Dame

The Dolphins signed Elandon Roberts to be their ILB next to Jerome Baker last off season but he had a very underwhelming year.  Baker was phenomenal and Owusu-Koramoah could be a speedy playmaker inside just like him.  While both players are a bit undersized, they play with such speed and intensity it’s hardly noticeable.  Brian Flores likes versatile LBs and these guys do a bit of everything.  Baker had seven sacks playing as an ILB so Owusu-Koramoah’s blitzing ability could be put to good use. The Dolphins were disappointed to miss the playoffs but they won 10 games and an impact defender would certainly help them in their quest to make the playoffs next year.  

19. Washington Football Team (7-9):  Trey Lance      QB      North Dakota St.

As well as Taylor Heinicke played in the playoff game, he’s not likely to be a real candidate to be the QB of the future.  Solid backup choice but not the guy you build around.  Clearly, Ron Rivera likes Kyle Allen too but again, he’s a backup, not a starter.  Alex Smith made a comeback for the ages from an injury that nearly cost him his leg but he’s going to be 37 next year, and it sounds like he’s moving on.  This team dumped Dwayne Haskins and they need a new QB.  I can see Rivera signing Cam Newton as a temporary starter and that would be a great bridge to Trey Lance.  Lance is making the leap from North Dakota St. to the NFL and he’s less experienced than Carson Wentz was when he did it.  It’s possible someone really likes Lance’s potential and he never makes it this far but I’m not sold.  Taking Lance and not rushing him into the starter role would be a wise move, as long as Rivera is making the call, it can happen; if ownership gets involved disaster will ensue.    

20. Chicago Bears (8-8):  Mac Jones      QB      Alabama

If the Bears don’t make a massive move to get Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson (doubtful in my estimation) then they are left with a pretty ugly veteran market to pick through at QB.  Cam Newton, Alex Smith, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are not exactly exciting choices.  Mac Jones doesn’t have the wow factor of Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson but he’s a good player who likely still has room to improve.  A lot of people see him as a guy who has maxed out his talent and was a product of playing with great players.  I’ll concede playing with guys DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris is a plus but I don’t think he’s maxed out his potential.  He only played about a season and a half for Alabama after Tua got hurt two years ago.  He has a strong arm, good anticipation and he was highly accurate for the Crimson Tide.  I think he’s an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky and if the Bears get him some help up front, he can be a quality NFL starter.     

21. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Jalen Mayfield      OT      Michigan

The Colts made a bold move to trade for Carson Wentz with the expectation that Frank Reich can fix whatever went wrong with him in Philadelphia.  The first thing to realize about what went wrong in Philly was the offense fell apart around Wentz and while he didn’t rise above it, he wasn’t the sole cause of the problems.  The Colts also lost LT Anthony Costanzo to retirement this off season and replacing him would mean solidifying the line in front of Wentz.  When Wentz was good for the Eagles, he had one of the best offensive lines in the league in front of him.  Mayfield isn’t the most pro-ready OT in the draft but he’s got plenty of potential and I think the Colts’ coaching staff would do great things with him.  The Colts already have RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr, and a couple of solid options at TE so Wentz won’t have a lot of excuses if he fails in Indianapolis.

22. Tennessee Titans (11-5):  Jaelen Phillips      OLB      Miami

The Titans were terrible at rushing the passer this season and they still went 11-5, imagine if they could actually get to the QB.  Their desperation made them sign Jadeveon Clowney who ended up being a disappointment and then getting hurt (I can’t figure out why teams think he’s worth signing).  They need someone who can give them something right now so I’m going with Jaelen Phillips.  All the other top edge rushers are pretty raw and will need some time to develop.  Maybe Phillips’ ceiling isn’t as high as other guys but he can help right now and he fits any scheme, meaning Mike Vrabel can deploy him any way he sees fit.  He would be an immediate upgrade off the edge. 

23. New York Jets (from Seattle):  Jaylen Waddle      WR      Alabama

Regardless of who the Jets line up at QB next year that guy is going to need some playmakers.  The Jets have been piecing together their WR group for too long and they need to invest heavily to make it better.  Last year my favorite WR was an Alabama WR named Jerry Jeudy, this year both DeVonta Smith and Waddle are my two favorite WRs and they both happen to be from Alabama.  Waddle is a total speed demon who can play inside or out and runs great routes.  He isn’t the biggest WR standing only 5’10 but he makes up for it with his ability to get open and his fantastic hands.  The only issue is the ankle injury he suffered during the season and tried to return from in the National Championship game.  He didn’t look good hobbling around and I hope he didn’t set his recovery back by trying to play.  The Jets got their “big” WR last year in Denzel Mims, now they get the speedy one they need to take the top off the defense. 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4):  Christian Barmore      DL      Alabama 

The Steelers have holes on the offensive line and an aging defensive line.  Alexandro Villanueva is a free agent and Maurkice Pouncey just retired.  The Steelers are not a team that generally reaches to fill need so I would expect them to take the best player available and Barmore has had a breakout season.  He’s still young as just a third-year sophomore and he only recently became a starter.  The best thing about him is his versatility on the defensive line.  At Alabama they play multiple fronts meaning their defensive linemen are well versed in lining up all over the place.  The Steelers have run a three-man line for as long as I can remember and you need inside/outside versatility to be productive in that alignment.  Barmore is not a finished product but he would learn a lot playing behind Cameron Heyward and Tyson Alualu.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LA Rams):  Liam Eichenberg      OT      Notre Dame

The Jaguars have a number of needs on the offensive side of the ball and after snagging Trevor Lawrence #1 overall it would be wise for Urban Meyer to give him a chance to be successful.  LT Cam Robinson has been a disappointment and he ended the season injured so it’s time to move on.  Eichenberg isn’t an elite LT prospect, he’s not the next Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace, but he’s pretty good and he can step in immediately and at this stage of the first-round teams will sometimes reach for an OT when they really need one.  This might also be a decent place to grab a RB if the team really likes Najee Harris or maybe Lawrence’s Clemson backfield mate Travis Etienne.  They started James Robinson most of the year, and while he did fine for an undrafted free agent playing with a bad offense, he can be improved upon and he’s also injured.  Eichenberg is the next best tackle and you can never go wrong protecting the face of the franchise. 

26. Cleveland Browns (11-5):  Gregory Rousseau        DE      Miami

The Browns need to address a few areas and while it is completely possible they look for a WR, I’m not convinced they are going to give up on Odell Beckham Jr. just yet.  That leaves the defense with the biggest need. Their secondary needs some help but the value just isn’t available here when compared to the pass rushers.  The Browns have Myles Garrett but Olivier Vernon tore his Achilles and he’s going to be a free agent.  Adrian Clayborn is nice depth if he’s back next year but he’s aging.  The team seems to be in the running for free agent JJ Watt but they could come up short.  Rousseau looked like a top 10 pick going into the season and then he decided to opt out and I think he falls a bit, that’s good news for the Browns.  Rousseau is a twitchy athlete who would bookend Garrett quite well and if the Browns generate some more pass rush perhaps their secondary won’t look so bad. 

27. Baltimore Ravens (11-5):  Creed Humphrey      OC      Oklahoma

I desperately want to give the Ravens a WR here but there is so much depth and talent at the position I think they wait unless one of the top guys like Waddle falls here.  There isn’t as much top talent on the interior of the offensive line and even less specifically at center.  Starting center Matt Skura had a number of issues this season and he’s just not good enough overall to overcome so many mistakes.  Humphrey has been on NFL teams’ radars for years and while there are those not as enamored with him as they once were, he’s a plug-and-play center who would make the overall interior offensive line even better for the Ravens.  This team relies on the run game and they need to be stout in the middle of the offensive line to stay that way.  It’s not a sexy pick for the offense but the Ravens usually do the right thing before the sexy thing. 

28. New Orleans Saints (12-4):  Kadarius Toney      WR      Florida

Kadarius Toney isn’t a name we have heard a lot coming into the draft because there are bigger names at WR.  However, Toney is one of the elite playmakers in the draft and he’s an extremely versatile athlete who makes plays all over the field.  He was a high school QB who went to Florida and became a WR/RB to start off because they just weren’t sure what to do with him.  Once they figured it out, he spent most of his time lining up at WR but he’s a guy you can play from pretty much anywhere.  He will fit right in with Sean Payton’s guys in New Orleans.  Imaging an offense that has Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara and Kadarius Toney.  The Saints might have some other needs but they don’t actually have a great option opposite Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders is aging.  And Thomas had serious injury and other issues this season.  Toney is an all-around playmaker and an all-around good idea for the Saints offense. 

29. Buffalo Bills (13-3):  Jason Oweh      DE      Penn St.

The Bills have three DEs on the wrong side of 30; Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, and Trent Murphy, and none of them had an overwhelming season this last year.  The team drafted AJ Epenesa last season but he’s a power end, he isn’t a speed rusher.  Oweh is raw and needs some time to develop but he’s a young player with plenty of potential.  Sean McDermott knows a thing or two about developing pass rushers and while a CB would be a solid pick here too, the value is in Oweh, the pass rusher.  I could make a solid argument for drafting an OG given the position isn’t exactly stacked for the Bills and if they look that way, Ohio St. OG Wyatt Davis would be a very good choice. 

30. Green Bay Packers (13-3):  Zaven Collins      LB      Tulsa

I could make a compelling case that the Packers should take LSU WR Terrance Marshall as he is great value here and despite what the front office thinks they do need to get Devante Adams some help.  If the team loses C Corey Lindsay in free agency and Creed Humphrey is here, I could make that argument too.  However, given their apparent opposition to drafting a WR early and the fact Humphrey is off my board already, I’m giving them a LB they can use to replace Christian Kirksey inside.  Kirksey was a free agent they signed last year but they already let him go after a disappointing season marred by injury.  Collins is a versatile playmaker who can line up at any of the LB spots and gives the defense some fresh looks.  The team has never been keen to spend money at ILB so here they get a late first-round rookie that won’t break the bank but will certainly pay off with his play. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2):  Samuel Cosmi      OT      Texas

A major factor in the Chiefs Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers was the fact that they had neither of their starting OTs for the game as both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were injured.  Schwartz was injured earlier in the season and they were able to patch the hole at RT well enough but losing Fisher in the AFC Championship game was too much to overcome.  Fisher and Schwartz are both over 30, coming off injuries and coming into the last year of their contracts.  The Chiefs roster isn’t getting any cheaper so they need to make plans moving forward.  Fisher probably won’t be available for much of next season if any of it.  Cosmi is a long, lean OT who needs to add some strength but he’s has years of starting experience at Texas at both RT and LT and that will come in handy.  This would be another example of a team reaching a little for an OT but it’s completely justified here.  The Chiefs can’t risk Patrick Mahomes’ health on the guys they had fill in at the Super Bowl and Fisher and Schwartz aren’t long-term solutions no matter what. 

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5):  Joseph Ossai      OLB      Texas

Jason Pierre-Paul isn’t getting any younger and Shaq Barrett isn’t getting any cheaper so the Bucs need to find another pass rusher.  As long as Tom Brady is back next season the offense should be fine and the while the defense plays great under Todd Bowles, they need to plan moving forward.  The defense is predicated on the pass rush of JPP and Barrett, Ossai would be a nice addition and can either supplement those two or replace one of them.  He’s an athletic player who bounced between DE and OLB at Texas until this last year where they used him very effectively as a pass rusher.  Ossai is raw but he can be very good player pretty quickly under Todd Bowles.

Defense

This team has a lot of new faces up front and at LB, but there are a number of returning players with significant playing time in the secondary.  Not having spring practice and having a fall camp that has been less than typical means they may be sorting some stuff out on the fly.  I’m still a bit uncertain of what we will see from the defensive line but there is one constant I can count on when it comes to Iowa’s defense, Phil Parker.  I’ve learned that no matter what kind of turnover the Hawkeyes are facing, never underestimate Phil Parker. 

Defensive Line

Defensive End Starters:  Chauncy Golston (Sr), John Waggoner (Soph)

Golston is the one known commodity at DE for the Hawkeyes.  He started last year opposite AJ Epenesa and he’s a solid player.  However, he needs to be more than solid for this Hawkeye squad because they need a top pass rusher and he’s the best bet.  Golston could really improve his draft position with an excellent senior year and he would really improve the Hawkeye defense too.  It will be interesting to see if he can raise his game.  At this point, John Waggoner is the best guess as the other starter at DE.  He was a backup last season and while a guy like Joe Evans plays there too, Evans is more of a pass rush specialist than full-time DE.  Waggoner is not guaranteed the spot by any means and there was talk during the spring that the coaching staff was going to try him inside at DT and try Logan Lee outside at DE, that could still be the plan but at this point it’s hard to say. 

Defensive End Backups:  Zach VanValkenburg (Sr), Joe Evans (Soph), Logan Lee (RS Fr) Matt Lorbeck (Sr)

I’m listing four backups because I truly don’t even know who the second starter is going to be and these guys can all be in the rotation so it could be any of them. VanValkenburg was a transfer last season and as a senior he has a lot of playing time in his career. He is versatile enough to play both inside and outside and that might make him better suited as a backup but his experience could give him a shot at starting.  Evans isn’t likely to be a starting DE simply because he lacks the size to play on running downs and he’s mostly a pass rushing specialist.  He fills that role quite well and he should continue to do so as he develops physically.  Logan Lee is an intriguing piece on the d-line.  As a true freshman last season, he practiced at DT and earned quite a bit of praise from the coaching staff.  He was originally a TE recruit who also was a two-time state wresting champ in high school so he’s a very athletic player.  I really like the idea of playing him at DE and seeing what he could do.  Matt Lorbeck is a transfer from Northern Illinois who had planned on redshirting as a graduate transfer and then using his one season of eligibility next year.  However, when the NCAA basically made this season a freebie due to COVID-19 Lorbeck’s plans changed. He will be in the mix this year and he has plenty of experience from his time at NIU. 

DE Depth:  Taajhir McCall (RS Fr), Chris Reames (RS Fr), Deontae Craig (Fr), Lukas Van Ness (Fr), Ethan Hurkett (Fr)

McCall and Reames redshirted last year and they still have some developing to do before they will be major players at DE but there is a potential there for both of them.  Craig is a true freshman who could break through as a pass rushing specialist given his talent level.  Van Ness and Hurkett are true freshman likely to redshirt this season. 

Defensive Tackle Starters: Daviyon Nixon (Jr), Jack Heflin (Sr)

It’s been a while since Iowa had two big DTs at the same time, usually the team looks more like last year’s squad with a big man (Cedrick Lattimore) and a smaller, quick guy (Brady Reiff).  Nixon was a backup last year and he’s looks ready to break out at one spot.  He played well last season and he’s a beast at 6’3 and over 300 lbs. He has the potential to be more of a playmaker on the inside than Lattimore was he just has to show it this season.  The team was looking at having Austin Schulte step into the Reiff role until Heflin transferred in from Northern Illinois.  It’s possible Kirk Ferentz and Phil Parker will be more comfortable starting a known commodity in Schulte, who is a senior, he’s earned their trust with hard work.  However, Heflin started at Northern Illinois and the Iowa coaching staff is quite familiar with him.  They wouldn’t have taken him as a transfer if they didn’t think he was worth it and I think his talent eventually wins the job.  Heflin would actually make Nixon the “little” DT since he’s 6’4 315 lbs.  He should be a monster on the inside and with both Nixon and Heflin at DT this defense will be tough to run on and should be strong up the middle. 

Defensive Tackle Backups:  Austin Schulte (Sr), Noah Shannon (Soph)

Schulte is a senior who has paid his dues and given his all to this team his entire career and while he may not end up being a starter, he will play plenty.  Iowa’s coaching staff places a lot of importance on trusting a player to do what he’s supposed to do and be where he’s supposed to be and Schulte does those things.  Shannon is still a developing player and it may be his inconsistency that holds him back a bit.  These two are the smaller DTs who play the game a bit differently than Nixon and Heflin but Iowa likes to mix and match their DTs so both of these guys will get in a rotation and give the defense some different looks.  You will also see Zach VanValkenburg get some snaps inside so there is some good depth here. 

DT Depth:  Dalles Jacobus (Sr), Jake Karchinski (RS Fr), Yahya Black (Fr), Isaiah Bruce (Fr), Logan Jones (Fr)

Jacobus is a senior walk-on who could possibly see some time based on the trust the coaches have in a senior who’s put in his time.  Karchinski redshirted last year so he could bulk up and he’s still in that process.  Black, Bruce and Jones are all true freshmen who need some time to develop and mature physically.  There is some speculation that Black doesn’t remain on the defensive line and moves over to the offensive side but so far that’s still just speculation.  I don’t know if the coaches plan on playing Bruce or Jones but I have seen Jones in person and while he isn’t DT big, that kid is well put together. 

Linebacker

Starters: LEO Nick Niemann (Sr), MLB Jack Campbell (Soph), WLB Barrington Wade (Sr)

Niemann is the LEO linebacker, which in Iowa vernacular, is the strongside LB.  He plays the position well and he is a multi-year starter.  He is the most reliable player at the position overall and the coaching staff trusts him.  If for some reason Jack Campbell doesn’t take to the MLB position like they hope I would guess they will turn to Niemann first.  They are looking to get their best lineup out there which would be Campbell playing the middle so Niemann can stay at LEO. 

Campbell became the de-facto starting MLB when Dillon Doyle transferred this summer after the whole situation with his dad, former strength coach Chris Doyle, led to him leaving.  Campbell would have been Doyle’s competition for the MLB spot but it’s his now.  He’s a talented kid with very little experience but he’s the best bet for now.  Part of the reason he’s the best bet is the fact there really isn’t a true MLB prospect among the rest of the depth chart.  That’s also why Niemann might be the next best option.  

Djimon Colbert would have been the starter at weakside LB but he is opting out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns.  Whatever his reason is, he is making the best choice for himself and the team will deal with his absence.  Barrington Wade is the most likely to step in for Colbert for now.  Wade is a senior who was earning more playing time last season and he can handle the job.  Truthfully, the Hawkeyes will probably look to use more two LB schemes along with the CASH position which will limit LB snaps overall.  It’s possible Wade plays along side Niemann with Campbell going to the bench in those alignments if only because Campbell lacks experience.  Iowa has a number of combinations it can use at LB and Phil Parker will likely scheme based on matchups. 

Backups: Seth Benson (Soph), Jestin Jacobs (RS Fr)

Benson has been a solid young player with some potential and he’s going to get a chance to play some more snaps now as he moves up the depth chart.  It will be interesting to see if he can steal some time from Wade or Campbell based on matchups.  Jacobs redshirted last year as he was recovering from an injury and he needed some time to bulk up.  He should be an excellent addition as a very athletic LB added to the mix.  I can see Phil Parker playing different combinations of two or three LBs out of his top five guys based on the team they are playing and how much he wants to use the CASH position.   

Depth:  Logan Klemp (So), Yahweh Jeudy (RS Fr), Jay Higgins (Fr)

The depth at LB has taken a few hits over the years with some transfers leaving Klemp, Jeudy and Higgins as young guys looking to make a move. Klemp has a little more time in and Jeudy and Higgins are still focused on physical development and contributing however they can.  There are only two seniors in Niemann and Wade but they are likely to play a lot so there will be open playing time moving forward. 

Defensive Backs

CASH Starter:  Dane Belton (Soph)

Amani Hooker started the CASH position for the Hawkeyes two years ago and it worked well because he was just the versatile talent needed to inhabit it.  Last year, the team tried DJ Johnson at the position and he failed to be the same player.  Then after going away from it for a few games true freshman Dane Belton stepped into the spot and proved a worthy successor to Hooker.  Now as a sophomore Belton will fill the position again unless the team needs him more at strong safety.  I think Belton will be the CASH most of the time simply because Iowa has more options at strong safety than they do here.  It takes a unique talent to play here and until another young player shows they can handle it; Belton might be the only player able to do it.  I’m not listing a backup because right now, I don’t know if there is one.

Safety Starters:  FS Jack Koerner (Jr), SS Kaevon Merriweather (Soph)

Merriweather started the first game last year at FS and promptly got injured and was replaced by Koerner.  By the time Merriweather returned healthy Koerner had established himself as the starter and Merriweather never regained his spot.  Koerner was a walk-on who knows what to do and where to be and he follows a long line of walk-on safeties to become starters and earn a scholarship for Iowa under Phil Parker.  Koerner had an accident on a lake this summer but one positive of starting the season even later is Koerner has had plenty of time to heal up and he should be ready to go.  Merriweather at least has some starting experience at safety which is more than I can say for the rest of the depth chart.  He may be better suited at FS but he can handle SS and he gives the back end of the defense two guys who can cover deep and come up in run support.  The versatility of both of these guys should pay off for the Hawkeyes in coverage. 

Safety Backups:  Sabastian Castro (RS Fr), Dallas Craddieth (Soph)

These two players are talented guys that are easy to be excited about.  I really like Castro and I think he gives Merriweather some real competition at SS.  He had excellent high school film and he looks the part.  He could truly be an option at SS or CASH but for now, his inexperience leaves him as the backup.  Craddieth was a highly rated prospect coming in a few years ago who hasn’t put it together yet.  However, Iowa has had some late bloomers on the defensive side of the ball before so I’m not counting Craddieth out. 

Depth:  Henry Marchese (Jr), Reggie Bracy (Fr)

Bracy is a good, young talent coming in this year as a freshman and he may have the talent to play safety or even the CASH and coaches like him a lot.  Marchese is still on the roster and has moved back and forth from WR to DB, probably more than once.  He isn’t seeing the field on defense. 

Cornerbacks

Starters: Matt Hankins (Sr), Julius Brents (Soph) or Riley Moss (Jr)

Matt Hankins is a senior and the Hawkeyes would really appreciate it if he would break out and have a huge year this season.  He’s started for the last couple of seasons when healthy but has taken a backseat to guys like Josh Jackson and Michael Ojemudia.  Those two guys made the NFL so that’s understandable but there were times before those two seasons that people expected Hankins to the top guy, expectations abound for Hankins.  He is a talented player who needs to stay healthy and find the consistency to be a playmaker for this defense.  The other CB spot will be a dogfight between Julius Brents and Riley Moss unless Brents becomes a guy Phil Parker wants to try out at the CASH.  Both of these guys fought injuries last season but Brents sat out enough to retain his redshirt.  They both played as true freshmen two years ago and the potential was evident in both of them.  Both of them will get playing time and given recent history they will both start when Hankins gets banged up at some point. 

Backups: Terry Roberts (Soph), Jermari Harris (RS Fr)

Roberts stepped last season as a backup when there were injuries and ineffectiveness and played fairly well in limited duty.  He’s the fourth CB behind Hankins, Brents and Moss and that’s about where I would want him to be.  He’s a developing player but for now he’s best in a limited role. Harris was a true freshman last season who played in a couple of games so the coaches saw something in him.  There’s talent there, he just isn’t ready yet. 

Depth:  AJ Lawson (Fr), Daraun McKinney (RS Fr), Brendan Deasfernandes (Fr)

There is some good, young talent coming up and considering Iowa only has one senior at the CB position there are going to be some battles for playing time over the next several years.  Lawson looks the part of a great athlete playing CB.  McKinney was a quiet Phil Parker addition late in his recruiting class, that’s usually a good sign.  And Deasfernandes was that guy in this latest recruiting class, more good news.

Punter

Ryan Gersonde (Jr) is going to try to have a healthy season in his fourth year with the Hawkeyes and finally be the starting punter.  If he can’t stay healthy or is ineffective there is a 23-year old Australian rules football player, Tory Taylor (Fr), who came in this season and might steal the job.  Taylor is a novice but he’s a big kid with a big leg, apparently.  The other punter on the roster is Nick Phelps (Soph), he’s originally from Iowa and transferred in after being the backup punter at North Dakota St. for a year.  Hopefully one of these guys is good.    

Offense

Love him or hate him Brian Ferentz is back as the offensive coordinator for the Hawkeyes.  I’m not going to get into the off season stuff because at this point he’s still here and the team is moving forward.  As a play caller, Brian has gotten better over the years and if he can build on the success of what he did in the bowl game against USC, Iowa is in good shape.  This team has the best collection of skill position players of any Iowa team I can remember, that includes both Kirk Ferentz teams that won a share of the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl team.  Finding playmakers is not going to be an issue for the Hawkeyes.  The offensive line has the potential to be fantastic if everyone is healthy and they find some continuity.  The success of the Hawkeye offense is going to come down to one position, QB.  Spencer Petras, you’re up. 

Quarterback

Starter: Spencer Petras (Soph)

Petras is a third-year sophomore who saw some minor action last year as the backup to Nate Stanley.  No QB on the roster has any meaningful playing time which means we have no idea what anyone will look like when the games actually count.  Petras won the battle to be the backup last year and while he hasn’t had much practice time to win the job so far, he seems to have it anyway.  There was no spring practice and fall camp started late, then that was interrupted and even stopped for a time.  During all of this I’ve heard nothing but good things about Petras stepping up as a leader and organizing workouts with his receivers and trying to build some chemistry.  He has serious potential.  He has the size and arm strength you look for in a starting QB.  He is a smoother athlete than Stanley was and I think the ceiling on what Petras can be is actually higher than Stanley’s.  That’s saying a lot considering what Stanley accomplished at Iowa but if Petras can find the week-to-week, game-to-game consistency that Stanley never seemed to have, this offense could be electric. 

Backup:  Alex Padilla (RS Fr), Deuce Hogan (Fr)

Petras has stepped into the role of starter because he was essentially being groomed for it for the past year or so but that doesn’t mean the other two scholarship QBs on the roster are going to just accept it.  They will fight for the starting job but truthfully they are fighting each other for the backup role and the chance to be Petras’ eventual replacement.  Alex Padilla is a redshirt freshman who was supposed to push Petras during spring practice since he was the only other scholarship QB on campus back then.  Of course, that all changed when there was no spring practice.  Padilla is much smaller in stature compared to Petras and Hogan but he was a highly accomplished high school QB in Colorado and he can throw it all over the place.  He would certainly bring a different look to the position and while he has an extra year on campus compared to Deuce Hogan, he’s going to face a challenge.  Hogan is a much ballyhooed 4-star recruit out of Texas who really fits the Iowa QB mold of a big, tall pocket passer with a big arm.  He has already shown strong leadership skills in his recruitment of players in his class.  Hogan and Padilla should have a heck of a battle for the backup job.

Running Back

Starter: Tyler Goodson (Soph)

The Iowa Hawkeyes uncovered a foundational piece for their offense last year in true freshman RB Tyler Goodson.  He didn’t begin last year as the starter but he started to take over the bulk of the carries mid-season and never looked back.  Goodson is a special talent and you don’t have to be a football expert to notice.  He has a different gear running the ball but his real talent is his patience and ability to set up his blocks.  He’s a perfect fit for the Iowa offense and he should enjoy a great year behind a more consistent offensive line.  It has been too long since Iowa had a RB with this kind of talent. 

Backups:  Mekhi Sargent (Sr), Ivory Kelly-Martin (Jr)

If you doubt how good Goodson is just look at who he is starting ahead of on this team.  Sargent and Kelly-Martin have both been starters for the Hawkeyes in their careers.  Sargent was the starter to begin last season and was eventually replaced by Goodson.  Kelly-Martin was a starter a couple of years ago and lost his job to Sargent because of injury.  He actually played a little last season coming back from his injury and then decided to sit out and take a redshirt season since Iowa had enough backs to not need him.  Sargent has proven to be a valuable piece in the offense as a runner and a pass catcher.  He should continue to spell Goodson to keep him fresh.  Kelly-Martin is a bit of an unknown because he has essentially missed the last two seasons.  Before the injuries he was a multidimensional back with game breaking ability.  We will see if any of that ability is still there.  These are two very talented players who have had success running the football and they will try to find ways to contribute as backups to Goodson. 

Depth:  Shadrick Byrd (RS Fr), Gavin Williams (Fr), Leshon Williams (Fr)

The Hawkeyes have some nice young depth with these three freshmen.  Byrd is a bigger back with some power and a year of practice under his belt.  I would say he has a shot as the short-yardage back but there is no way Iowa is taking Goodson off the field when they need a yard or two. Williams and Williams are a pair of true freshmen we haven’t seen at all but they are talented young guys. 

Fullback

Turner Pallissard and Monte Pottebaum are two sophomores that look the part of typical Iowa fullbacks.  They have the unfortunate luck of playing FB in what seems like a new era for the Hawkeyes.  Certainly, there will be times Iowa lines up in their traditional I-formation but this team has way too much WR talent to not use a 3-receiver set a lot and Brian Ferentz still likes his two-TE sets too. 

Wide Receiver

Starters: Ihmir Smith-Marsette (Sr), Brandon Smith (Sr), Nico Ragaini (Soph)

I certainly cannot remember a time when I could say the Iowa Hawkeye WR corps is the strongest and deepest position on the Iowa roster.  It may be that the Hawkeyes start with only two WRs during any game (it would be Smith and Smith-Marsette) but essentially the best lineup has three WRs on the field.  Smith-Marsette (aka ISM) is the deep speed guy who is one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football.  He lit up USC in the Holiday Bowl last year and he’s looking to build on that performance.  He’s also looking to show NFL scouts that he’s one of the top WRs in college football.  ISM is also an excellent kickoff returner so he has value all over.  Brandon Smith is the big, physical receiver who likes to play outside and can be a monster in the red zone.  Smith is hard to handle because of his size and strength.  The offense is better when he’s lining up opposite ISM because their skill sets complement each other so well.  He also has NFL type talent.  Nico Ragaini is the perfect inside slot receiver with reliable hands, quick feet and knack for finding open space.  These three will take the bulk of the snaps and they offer Spencer Petras the opportunity to have an outstanding year.  If Petras just gets the ball to these guys as much as possible the offense is in good hands. 

Backups: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (Soph), Max Cooper (Sr)

I’m only listing two guys as backups because Iowa is most likely to only use these five guys in any formations unless one of the younger guys forces their way on to the field with their play.  The young guys are going to have to play exceptionally well to break in to this rotation.  Tyrone Tracy started quite a bit last year with injuries to multiple starters because he happens to possess the skill to fill in at any of the WR positions.  That’s a great skill to have when you’re looking for playing time.  Tracy played well in almost all situations and while he sometimes drops an easy ball, he makes up for it with his playmaking abilities.  Getting Tracy the ball more would be a great idea if it didn’t mean taking it away from the top three guys.  Max Cooper is a guy who has fought some injuries but when he returned last season he took over as the punt returner and that’s not a job the coaching staff trusts to just anyone.  He can play the slot and gives the coaches a solid backup to Ragaini, in case Tracy is busy filling in one of the other spots. 

Depth:  Desmond Hutson (RS Fr), Calvin Lockett (Soph), Diante Vines (Fr), Charlie Jones (Jr)

Desmond Hutson impressed the coaches last season as a true freshman but they just had too much depth to consider playing him and burning his redshirt season.  Calvin Lockett is a sophomore who has simply been waiting his turn behind some very talented WRs.  Hutson and Lockett are the bigger receiver types.  Diante Vines is probably going to be in the same boat as Hutson was last season, a highly talented player who simply won’t be needed.  Vines is a dynamic playmaker but he’ll have to wait for Smith and ISM to graduate to open up some playing time.  Charlie Jones is a transfer from Buffalo, I’ve heard some good things but he might have to make his mark on special teams.  True freshman Quavon Matthews isn’t listed because he needs at least a year to get physically ready for B1G football.

Tight Ends

Starter: Sam LaPorta (Soph)

LaPorta was a true freshman last season and while it took some time for him to get going, he finally stepped into the void left by Hockenson and Fant once Shaun Beyer couldn’t seem to fill it.  LaPorta is a very good athlete who still hasn’t filled out physically so he can still get even better.  It will be interesting to watch him develop his chemistry with Petras and see if he becomes his security blanket.  He has a knack for getting open and he has the athleticism to threaten teams down the seams and make them pay when they double the guys outside.

Backup: Shaun Beyer (Sr)

Beyer is getting one more shot at this thing.  He dealt with injuries early in his career and had to sit behind the ridiculous duo of TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant, those things weren’t his fault.  Last year was supposed to be his chance and he got banged up again and lost the top spot to LaPorta.  Iowa likes to use multiple TEs so he still has a chance to become a big contributor but he needs to stay healthy and take advantage of every opportunity.  Talented kid, who deserves things to break his way his senior year (assuming he doesn’t take an extra COVID year next year. Yep that’s going to be a thing). 

Depth: Josiah Miamen (RS Fr), Elijah Yelverton (Fr), Luke Lachey (Fr)

These three guys are the reason Beyer will have to step it up this year.  LaPorta can’t do it all on his own and these are three talented athletes who can all bring something to the table.  They don’t have Beyer’s years of experience in the Iowa offense but they can make plays and that’s what will matter.  Oh, and they are young and healthy.   

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Alaric Jackson, LG Mark Kallenberger, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Kyler Schott, RT Coy Cronk

While the Hawkeyes lost the most talented offensive lineman from last season, Tristan Wirfs, this unit has a chance to be better overall, let me explain.  The biggest issue with last year’s unit was consistency. When Alaric Jackson got injured to start the year it threw the line into chaos as Wirfs moved back and forth from RT to LT and back and guys came in and out of the lineup at guard.  By the end of the year, Jackson was back, even if he wasn’t 100%, and Kallenberger and Schott had stepped up and solidified the guard spots.  Coy Cronk isn’t going to be Tristan Wirfs at RT but he doesn’t have to be for this line to be excellent. 

Jackson returned to college instead of turning pro because he wanted to get healthy, dominate and show the NFL scouts how good he can be.  That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the B1G.  Coy Cronk is a transfer from Indiana who started at LT for three years before missing last season with an injury.  He came to Iowa to get healthy and prove he’s still a force in the conference.  He moves to RT and gives Iowa a pretty solid replacement for Wirfs.  The unsung star of this offensive line is Tyler Linderbaum at center.  He stepped in as a redshirt freshman last season, after being a defensive tackle his first year, and was fantastic.  He was so good NFL teams are already looking at him as one of the next top center prospects and he’s only been at the position a year. 

The two guard spots went through some issues last season and when Jackson got hurt and Wirfs moved, that moved a Paulsen twin to RT and others moved around and it was a mess.  When Kyler Schott stepped in, he played well and stabilized the RG spot.  Of course, then he got hurt.  More movement and more instability happened.  Once he came back at the end of the year he played well when he was healthy.  Mark Kallenberger did some shuffling too, playing guard, playing some RT and even playing some LT.  He finally settled in at LG next to Jackson and he played well.  He was though to be the next RT until Cronk transferred in and now, he should settle back in at LG.  With Schott and Kallenberger flanking Linderbaum on the inside it could actually because a strong point up front.   

Backups: OG/C Cole Banwart (Sr), OG Justin Britt (RS Fr), OT Jack Plumb (Soph), OT Nick DeJong (RS Fr) 

I’m only listing four backups because in reality the Hawkeyes would only like to have to play eight if necessary and that’s the five starters with Banwart and Britt rotating inside and Plumb maybe getting some time at OT.  Nick DeJong is a redshirt freshman walk-on the coaches really liked last year so he’s next.  The truth is, if the team needs to, plenty of these guys are cross trained to play multiple positions.  For example, if one of the starting OTs gets injured the likely first step is to slide Kallenberger outside to that spot and insert Britt or Banwart at LG.  At this moment, I’m not sure the coaches know who the backup center is given that last season’s backup center Jeff Jenkins left the team.  If I were a betting man, I would say Banwart would be the first choice because as far as I know he’s the only player to really take snaps at center other than Linderbaum.  Justin Britt actually started for a bit last year as a true freshman but got banged up and ended up taking his redshirt.  He’ll be in a dogfight with Kallenberger, Schott and Banwart to start at guard, and who knows maybe the team trains him at either center or even OT.  Plumb is a third-year sophomore who is finally filling out his frame and looking like a legitimate OT prospect.  He better play like one too because there are some guys coming up behind him.  The team has a ton of young talent coming up to keep the offensive line rolling for years but I’m not sure the coaches have decided where they all will play.  The backups even include two redshirt freshman and a sophomore. 

Depth:  Coy Kirkpatrick (Jr), Cody Ince (Soph), Tyler Endres (RS Fr), Noah Fenske (RS Fr), Josh Volk (Fr), Tyler Elsbury (Fr), Mason Richman (Fr)

I’m not sure it’s clear who the 10^th, 11^th, 12^th, and so forth, offensive linemen are but Coy Kirkpatrick and Cody Ince have more time in the program than the others.  Endres and Fenske join Britt and DeJong as redshirt freshmen while Volk, Elsbury and Richman are true freshmen this season.  Throw in the 2021 recruiting class and Iowa’s offensive line future is very bright.  I didn’t list positions on these guys because they are young and Iowa likes to develop guys a bit before they decide if a guy is going to be a guard, a tackle or a center and they usually train them at more than one spot early on anyway.   

Kicker

Starter: Keith Duncan (Sr)

I don’t usually talk about kickers much but Duncan is an interesting story. He hit a big kick to win a big game when he was a true freshman and then spent two years behind Miguel Recinos.  Last year he won the kicking competition and proceeded to have one of the best years ever for an Iowa kicker.  He should have won the Lou Groza Award as the nation’s best kicker but got screwed out of it by that dude with the googles from Georgia.  One guy I’m really happy gets to have this season, even if it’s shortened is Duncan because he deserves a chance to win the award his year. 

Kickoff Specialist: Caleb Shudak (Sr)

Shudak considered transferring from Iowa but has returned and should handle kickoffs again, he’s excellent at that particular skill.   

Most Valuable Player

Contenders:  QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Russell Wilson, QB Dak Prescott

Sleepers: QB Drew Lock

Mahomes and Jackson are the last two league MVPs and it’s quite possible these two just pass this award back and forth over the next decade or so.  Both players are immensely talented and play on teams that look like they will contend for a while.  Quarterbacks always have an advantage in the MVP race which is why this list has so many of them.  Drew Brees and Tom Brady may be older but both of them are on teams that should be major contenders and both could be considered sentimental favorites. As good as Russell Wilson has been throughout his career, he has still never even garnered a single MVP vote, that is one of the strangest stats ever. I don’t think he wins the award but I do think he gets votes this year.  Dak Prescott is often overlooked and Ezekiel Elliott usually gets more credit than him but I think voters take note this year as Prescott puts up some big numbers and the Cowboys win their division.  Christian McCaffrey went for over 1000 yards rushing and receiving last year and if he does it again this year, he’ll get some MVP votes.  Drew Lock is my sleeper because the Broncos offense is set up for him to put up some big numbers if all goes well.  He won’t win the award but he will have a good year. 

My Pick: Mahomes.  I know Jackson won it last year but that actually makes it more difficult to win again because you have to have an even better year than you had before and it has to be significantly better for people to notice.  Jackson suffered the same fate in college after winning the Heisman. It’s okay, he can take it back next year.  Mahomes has all the momentum coming off his Super Bowl MVP and the Chiefs are going to be great.  He wins his second MVP, but not his last. 

Offensive Player of the Year

Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Michael Thomas, QB Kyler Murray, RB Alvin Kamara

Sleeper: RB Joe Mixon

Mahomes and Jackson are on this list for obvious reasons.  McCaffrey is also an obvious choice given the fact he goes for over 2000 yards combined.  Saquon Barkley is one of the most talented players in football and if he stays healthy, he can also go 1000/1000 like McCaffrey.  Alvin Kamara is another back with the potential to go 1000/1000 because he’s equally effective running and catching the ball.  Michael Thomas won this award last year because he had 149 catches last year, I think that’s some kind of record.  Kyler Murray put up some good stats last year as a rookie QB and this year he adds DeAndre Hopkins to his passing game, that’s going to help.  Joe Mixon doesn’t get talked about a lot but with Joe Burrow around to open up the passing game Mixon should have some extra room to run and he’s a talented guy. 

My Pick: McCaffrey.  He had almost 1400 yards rushing and just over 1000 yards receiving last year and that was with Kyle Allen being his QB.  Teddy Bridgewater is better and I think this year he gets over 1500 yards rushing and over 1200 receiving as the Panthers offense is a bit better than last year and he’s still carrying the load. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Contenders:  DE Aaron Donald, OLB Khalil Mack, OLB TJ Watt, OLB Chandler Jones, OLB Shaq Barrett, DE Nick Bosa, DE Myles Garrett, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB Jalen Ramsey

Sleeper: DE Yannick Ngakoue

Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack are guys that just belong on the list due to their long history of being great defensive players. It might work against them for the award at this point because their level of play is expected to be great.  Gilmore won the award last season, rightfully so, but that makes winning it again harder.  It will be tough for him to have a better season on a Patriots defense that has been compromised by free agency and Covid-19 opt outs.  Chandler Jones and Shaq Barrett were two of the best pass rushers in the league last season, this year they will try to not be overshadowed by their teams’ offenses.  Nick Bosa was a star as a rookie and took home defensive rookie of the year, he’ll be making this list for the foreseeable future.  Myles Garrett has to mend his reputation before he gets votes for DPOY but he’ll play well enough to be considered.  Jalen Ramsey is one of the best CBs in the game but he plays on the Rams and I don’t think he will get many votes.  TJ Watt broke out as one of the best OLB in the game last season.  Ngakoue will shine under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota and on a better overall defense than he played on in Jacksonville.

My Pick:  Watt.  TJ Watt is the leader of the Steelers defense this year and if the team had been better last season, he might have had more recognition.  With the offense set to rebound with Big Ben back the spotlight on Watt should be brighter.  He could have 15-18 sacks and have an even bigger impact than last year. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: QB Joe Burrow, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Henry Ruggs III, WR Justin Jefferson, RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Cam Akers

Sleeper: RB D’Andre Swift

Burrow is the only rookie QB slated to start right away as Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa wait behind veterans.  Burrow is going to put ups some numbers even if they aren’t in the win column.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire got off to a great start for the Chiefs and he will continue that all season.  Jerry Jeudy is supposed to be the #2 WR behind Courtland Sutton but if Sutton’s shoulder injury lingers Jeudy will be asked to step up.  Ruggs is likely Derek Carr’s top target but the question is, does Carr have the arm to take advantage of Ruggs’ deep speed?  Justin Jefferson will be the #2 WR behind Adam Thielen, will he get enough usage to win this award?  Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers are sitting behind veteran RBs right now but no one thinks that will last.  Both will be eventual starters, their chances at the ROY award comes down to how soon they take over the jobs.  Swift was one of my early favorites and he only becomes the sleeper because the Lions added Adrian Peterson and that means Swift has to climb over both Peterson and Kerryon Johnson to get the job. 

My Pick: Burrow.  This will be an interesting award.  The RBs are almost all in a time share except Edwards-Helaire and he will be overshadowed in an offense filled with playmakers.  The WRs are always a dicey proposition as rookies, usage and consistency can be issues.  Burrow is the high-profile player and he’s got some weapons in the passing game.  If the Bengals can keep him up right, he wins this award.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Contenders: DE Chase Young, DT Javon Kinlaw, LB Isaiah Simmons, LB Patrick Queen, LB Kenneth Murray, DT Derrick Brown, CB AJ Terrell

Sleeper: Antoine Winfield Jr.          

Let’s be honest, this is Chase Young’s award to lose.  He’s the best pass rusher of all the rookies and he’s almost assuredly going to get double digit sacks.  Washington isn’t a great team but they have a very good defensive line which means you can’t double Young all the time, he’s going to get his.  Javon Kinlaw isn’t a starter yet but he will be and the 49ers have a great defense. Derrick Brown is a starter but on a defense that isn’t great.  Simmons, Queen and Murray are all slated to be starters but they will have to put up huge numbers that stand out.  Queen and Murray should both play on top 10 defenses so that should help them stand out.  Terrell is the one rookie CB who is going to face the firing squad given the division he plays in, if he plays well, he could win the award.  Winfield is a playmaker and playing for Todd Bowles defense in Tampa is going to give him some opportunities to stand out.

My Pick: Young.  I’m not stupid, Young is going to have 12-15 sacks and be one of the best defensive players in the league even as a rookie.  He has Pro Bowl potential in his first year.

Playoff Predictions

This year the NFL starts their new playoff format with 14 teams meaning one more playoff team per conference.  Only the top seed gets a 1^st round playoff bye making it that much more important to have the best record in each conference.   

NFC Playoff Teams (* Wild Card teams)

Dallas

New Orleans

Minnesota

San Francisco

* Seattle

* Tampa Bay

* Green Bay

AFC Playoff Teams (*Wild Card teams)

Buffalo

Baltimore

Tennessee

Kansas City

* Pittsburgh

* Indianapolis

* Denver

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans over San Francisco

AFC Championship Game

Kansas City over Baltimore

Super Bowl

New Orleans over Kansas City

Drew Brees goes out a winner as he gets the Saints team over the playoff failures of the past few years, wins Super Bowl MVP and retires a champion.