Buffalo Bills

The Bills look like a team on the cusp of a breakthrough and their offense may have added the one piece they desperately needed this off season, a legitimate #1 WR.  Stefon Diggs gives them a gamebreaker who can take the pressure of being the top WR off of John Brown and let him play the complementary role he is more suited to play.  The team has a good offensive line, an emerging TE in Dawson Knox and Cole Beasley is still a legitimate weapon in the slot.  At RB, the team drafted Zack Moss to be the power complement to Devin Singletary, they should make a pretty good duo.  This offense comes down to the development of Josh Allen at QB.  He has the skills to be a top-notch QB he just has to put it all together.  Given his offensive line, receiving group and a running game there are no excuses left, he has to perform.

The defense was good last year and head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier should keep them performing well.  The team added veterans to supplement that side of the ball; DE Mario Addison, LB AJ Klein and CB Josh Norman.  All players McDermott is familiar with from his time in Carolina.  Addison gives them a better pass rusher than Trent Murphy, Klein gives them some steadiness next to young LBs Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano and they hope Norman still has something left in the tank to lineup opposite Tre’Davious White.  They also added AJ Epenesa in round two of the draft and he adds some pop to the defensive line and some youth they desperately need.

It’s now or never for the Bills if they want to take the next step, the Patriots rebuild means the division is there for the taking and the Bills are the steadiest team in the division with the least amount of turnover meaning they have the advantage this year.  If Josh Allen can take the next step the Bills win the division and make some noise in the AFC playoffs this season.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins were terrible to start last season but they played much better in the last half of the season.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is the definition of a hit-or-miss QB but his veteran presence last year stabilized the offense.  He returns to hold down the fort until the team deems Tua Tagovailoa ready to take the reins.  This team is going through a lot of change but it should be for the better.  Nowhere is that more prevalent than on the offensive line.  LT Austin Jackson, LG Ereck Flowers, C Ted Karras and RG Solomon Kindley will all be new starters but they are all upgrades over last year’s line.  WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki are solid options in the passing game and the team added Lynn Bowden Jr from the Raiders.  He could be the playmaker this team desperately needs.  The team upgraded the RB position with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida.  The offense will also be under the direction of new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, I’m less optimistic about that development than I am the upgrade in talent.  Gailey has been out of the game for a bit so that makes his scheme an unknown.

The defense has also undergone a major facelift.  New guys like LBs Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts, DEs Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah and CBs Byron Jones and rookie Noah Igbinoghene add talent to a unit that desperately needed it.  Add in some talented holdovers like DT Christian Wilkins, LB Jerome Baker and CB Xavien Howard ad this defense has potential to make a move.  The upgrades on defense might actually outperform the upgrades on offense and Brian Flores knows how to coach up a defense.  If the offense can be more consistent they can also keep the defense off the field and fresh.

The Bills are counting on continuity with just a few slight adjustments to take them to the top of the division.  The Dolphins are looking for a major overhaul to do the same for them.  They were one of the least talented teams in the league last season and it showed in the first half of the year.  Brian Flores did an excellent coaching job in the back half of the year getting as much as he did out of that roster.  It will be interesting to see what he can do with actual NFL talent on both sides of the ball.

New England Patriots

No team is going through more change than the Patriots with the end of the Tom Brady era, a new starting QB in Cam Newton coming in and the fact that they have a whole host of players who opted out of the season because of the pandemic.  The offense will look a lot different with Newton running it.  The offense will suffer from the same issue it had last season and that is a serious lack of playmakers in the passing game, Julian Edelman can only do so much.  They still have no TE that threatens anyone and the deep passing game is non-existent. Without Marcus Cannon at RT the offensive line is compromised.  The offense is going to have to rely heavily on the running game, using both the running backs and Cam Newton’s legs.  Luckily, Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead and even Damien Harris give the Patriots plenty of options in the backfield.

The defense will look a whole lot different without LBs Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Robert and Jaime Collins, who all left in free agency and without Donte’ Hightower who opted out.  Belichick’s defense relies heavily on the LBs and Ju’Wuan Bentley is going to have to play far too much given his skillset.  They are going to be relying on rookie Josh Uche quite a bit too.  The defensive line doesn’t scare anyone and they will need Chase Winovich and John Simon to ball out at OLB.  The secondary will still be a huge strength due to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, safety Devin McCourty and a deep CB group of Jason McCourty, JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones.  They do need either rookie safety Kyle Duggar or second-year man Joejuan Williams to step in and replace Patrick Chung who also opted out of the season.

I think the Patriots have the potential to be epically bad this season.  The team has a pedestrian offense and an overmatched defense.  I only have them ahead of the Jets in the division because Bill Belichick can still outcoach Adam Gase any day of the week and I don’t think the Jets roster is that much better.

New York Jets

The Jets offense needs Sam Darnold to take a pretty big leap if they want to get better so they addressed the issues around him, I’m just not sure they got guys that help as much as they hope.  They needed WR help so they signed Breshad Perriman.  The former 1st-round bust had a solid year last season in Tampa Bay but that was as a 3rd WR not a #1, he’s never excelled as the top dog.  The team then drafted Denzel Mims from Baylor and while he’s a great athlete and was highly productive he didn’t run the whole route tree at Baylor and the NFL will be a big transition.  I’m not sure two WRs who could be inconsistent players will help Darnold as much as the team hopes.  The Jets took things one step further than the Dolphins by literally getting five new starters on the offensive line.  I’m quite sure LT Mekhi Becton will be an upgrade over last year but the other four spots might not be.  Getting those five guys together is paramount to the offense’s success because Darnold needs as much protection as possible.  Le’Veon Bell gets a new backup in the ageless wonder Frank Gore but the Jets running game leaves plenty to be desired, again, the offensive line needs to be considerably better.  A healthy Chris Herndon at TE would be very helpful to Darnold’s health and development, he’s a talented guy.

The Jets defense has some solid players in guys like DT Quinnen Williams, LB Avery Williamson and safety Marcus Maye but they lack any serious playmakers.  They run a 3-4 defense which relies on OLB to generate pressure, they don’t have anybody that really does that.  They also traded disgruntled safety Jamal Adams to Seattle, he was the best player on the defense and their biggest playmaker.  Avery Williamson is returning from an injury at ILB but CJ Mosley opted out of the season meaning they are missing their best overall defensive player (after trading Adams).  Gregg Williams has put together some great defenses before but you have to have someone to make plays or you just won’t get the job done.  This defense leaves a lot to be desired.

I think this season could blow up on the Jets with an inconsistent offense and a defense that can’t get off the field.  It makes me wonder if Adam Gase will survive long-term and if the team will stick with Darnold if he doesn’t show good progression.  This is a very important year for the Jets’ future, the coach, the QB and the franchise as a whole.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were the surprise team last year after inserting Ryan Tannehill at QB to replace Marcus Mariota.  Tannehill had a stabilizing effect and the team relied heavily on RB Derrick Henry and that combination really made a difference.  The offense returns most of its offensive line, one of the better ones in the league.  They need veteran Dennis Kelly to hold down the RT spot until rookie Isaiah Wilson is ready to take over.  Henry is a work horse and the team tried to get him some help with rookie Darryton Evans, we will see how that works out.  Corey Davis hasn’t been the superstar WR the team hoped, but he’s holding his own.  AJ Brown had an excellent rookie year and he looks like a player.  Adam Humphries is supposed to be the third WR and play in the slot but he wasn’t great last year.  They need him to step up because they don’t have much depth.  Jonnu Smith took over the TE job after Delanie Walker got hurt and the job is his now with Walker gone.  This team isn’t the high-flying attack of the Chiefs or the Saints but they know what they do well and they stick to it.

The Titans had a good defense last season and they are looking to build on that success.  The team traded away Jurrell Casey partly because they have Jeffrey Simmons ready to take over at DE.  Simmons only played in nine games last year because he was recovering from an ACL tear but he made the most of those games and proved to be quite good.  Originally the team signed Vic Beasley to be the new OLB opposite Harold Landry but Beasley hasn’t participated in camp and the team ended up signing Jadeveon Clowney.  Clowney is a far better addition and he might make Beasley moot.  Clowney and Landry could be a solid duo rushing the passer but this is my opportunity to remind you that Jadeveon Clowney is the single most overrated player in the league.  The team is very strong up the middle with ILBs Rashaan Evans and Jayon Brown and safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard.  That’s always a solid place to build a defense, right up the middle.  Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson are the top two CBs but rookie Kristian Fulton is going to play plenty for this team. 

I like the Titans because they know they are a run first offense and a strong defense first and foremost and they don’t try to be anything different.  Mike Vrabel proved quite adept as a new head coach last season and this team should be better with Tannehill at the controls all year. 

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts offense is under new management as Phillip Rivers has come in to take the controls.  Rivers is still a capable QB and this year he gets to play behind one of the best offensive lines in all of football, that will be a nice change of pace from his years behind the Chargers line.  He will have a deadly combination at RB with Marlon Mack being joined by rookie Jonathan Taylor.  They should make one of the better RB duos in the NFL.  TY Hilton is a legitimate #1 WR who now has a legitimate NFL starting QB throwing to him, he’s a proven commodity.  Hilton needs some help either from second-year man Parris Campbell or rookie Michael Pittman.  Jack Doyle is a decent TE but he’s not scaring anyone.  The offensive line is one of the best and it’s not because they have five stars it’s because the whole is better than the sum of its parts.  It should be interesting watching Rivers operate with a clean pocket and with a healthy offense around him, I think he’s in for a good year. 

The Colts clearly have a good coaching staff because not only was their offensive line greater than the sum of its parts, that’s exactly what their defense was last season.  They do have one elite player in LB Darius Leonard but the rest of the defense relies on good players playing great.  They tried to upgrade a bit this off season by trading their first-round pick for DT DeForest Buckner from the 49ers and he really upgrades the front line.  Somehow the team patched together a pass rush from guys like Justin Houston, Kemoko Turay and others but Turay is out for the year so they need some more magic.  Buckner’s presence should help considerably but they need guys like Denico Autry and Ben Banogu to step up.  Leonard is an All-Pro caliber LB and he teams with Anthony Walker to make a talented young duo.  They are not stacked at LB otherwise.  In the secondary they are counting on Xavier Rhodes to rebound after a tough year in Minnesota and for Rock Ya-Sin to have a good second year.  Kenny Moore is one of the better nickel corners in the game when he’s on so that helps.  Malik Hooker hasn’t been the game changing safety they hoped he’d be but he’s good. 

If the defense holds together and keeps teams from running away from them the offense should be much improved over last year’s middling group.  Frank Reich and his staff have shown they don’t need overwhelming talent to win but it will be good to see what they can do with the last good years of Phillip Rivers. 

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson is some sort of magician because he won 10 games and this division last year and he had no business pulling that off.  The Texans were lucky that the Titans didn’t go to Ryan Tannehill sooner or the Titans would have caught them for the division.  Watson is a big play waiting to happen and he never gives up on a play.  That’s good and bad because he sometimes takes hits he shouldn’t because he’s trying so hard to make a play.  He’s going to have to try harder this year because for some reason Bill O’Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins who was Watson’s best target and the best part of the offense.  The team went out and traded for Brandin Cooks to fill in but he’s a lot like Will Fuller and Cooks keeps getting traded away from teams. Cooks has been on four teams in six years, that’s not a good thing.  The team has Cooks, Fuller and Kenny Stills so they have the deep speed portion of the offense covered, now they have to hope free agent pick up Randall Cobb can still work the middle of the field.  They are also hoping beyond hope that RB David Johnson can recapture his form from what seems like an eternity ago.  Johnson was the big return in the Hopkins deal but until he proves otherwise, he’s just an overpaid RB.  TE Darren Fells is fine but he’s not a star.  The offensive line is better as they get healthy and settle into their spots.  The spent a lot of draft capital and money to get and keep LT Laremy Tunsil but he looks worth it.  They need the other four spots to stabilize. 

The defense is still led by JJ Watt but one of these days he’s going to turn in to a pumpkin.  He’s played in single digit games three of the last four years and last year he only had four sacks in eight games.  The defense needs a fresh face.  Up front they also lost DJ Reader in free agency and that’s going to hurt more than they know.  They are still trotting out Whitney Mercilus at OLB and while he gets the job done, he isn’t changing the game.  He’s also only a year younger than Watt so the clock is ticking.  ILBs Bernardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham seem to be the better playmakers for this team and the Texans just gave Cunningham an extension so they noticed. Vernon Hargreaves and Bradley Roby are the CBs and they are two former first-round picks who are trying to prove they really belong.  Roby had a decent year while Hargreaves saved his career from being completely over.  Justin Reid is a solid safety with some potential to be pretty good with some development. 

Bill O’Brien is now filling both the coach and GM roles for the Texans and while he might be a decent coach, he’s a terrible GM.  Trading DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson and a draft pick was GM malpractice.  Watson might be able to bail out the offense but I’m not sure anything can save this defense.  If this team wins 10 games again Watson should be the MVP and they should build a statue for him.    

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are basically a tire fire inside of a dumpster fire sitting on a sinking ship.  Seriously, if this team isn’t trying to Tank for Trevor (Lawrence) I don’t know what they are doing.  Minshew mania was fun for a few weeks last season but even he got benched for Nick Foles who then proceeded to suck so much they benched him and traded him away.  To top that their starting RB as of right now is James Robinson, an undrafted free agent out of Illinois St.  This is a team that drafted 12 players in April and Robinson wasn’t one of them.  It’s probable that Minshew will put up some big stats mostly because the Jaguars will be behind quite often and he does have some talent to work with at WR.  DJ Chark was very good last year, Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook are solid veterans, and rookie Laviska Shenault should be a good one.  They signed Tyler Eifert at TE and he should be fine for the 4-6 games he’s healthy this year. The line isn’t bad, LG Andrew Norwell, C Brandon Linder, RG AJ Cann and RT Jawaan Taylor are pretty good actually.  LT Cam Robinson needs to be better for the whole thing to come together.    

A solid o-line, Gardner Minshew’s passing ability and a good group of WRs means the offense could score some points, the question is, can the defense stop anyone?  The answer is no.  And it got a lot harder when they traded away Yannick Ngakoue when he wouldn’t sign his franchise tender.  That leaves Josh Allen as the best (and possibly only) pass rusher worth a damn up front.  Allen is undersized and he needs rookie K’Lavon Chaisson to really come on to take some pressure off of him.  Chaisson has a history of injury and he’s not ready for prime time just yet.  The rest of the d-line is pretty non-descript; it would help if Taven Bryant would emerge at DT after being a non-factor most of his career so far.  Myles Jack is the best overall defender and they did him a solid signing MLB Joe Schobert so that Jack could move to the weakside.  Schobert was underappreciated in Cleveland but he got overpaid by Jacksonville to make up for it.  The secondary needs rookie CB CJ Henderson to play like he’s Deion Sanders and even if he does that isn’t going to make the other three spots any better. This defense is going to struggle, but that was the goal, I think. 

I’m slightly perplexed that the Jaguars had 12 draft picks last year and yet only one (Henderson) is scheduled to start.  This roster is not that good which makes me think they didn’t have a great draft. There’s actually an undrafted rookie (Robinson) starting and it’s hard to believe out of 12 picks they didn’t pick a RB who could start.  This is the most dysfunctional team in the league when it comes to football decisions (Washington is leading the way with off the field stuff).  Good luck Trevor.      

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott seems to be the only top QB not getting a long-term deal this off season as Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson signed megadeals to stay with their respective clubs.  Prescott is on a one-year franchise tag and it should be a hell of a year.  The team still has Ezekiel Elliott, who should be one of the top RBs in the NFL again.  The offensive line is hoping for a healthy year out of Tyron Smith at LT and Connor Williams at LG while Joe Looney takes over at C for the retired Travis Frederick.  RG Zach Martin is one of the best in the game and they will have to hold together for a little while as RT La’el Collins comes back from an injury.  The line can be a huge strength if healthy, if not the depth isn’t optimal.  The team overlooked some bigger issues in the first-round of the draft to take WR CeeDee Lamb who was simply too valuable to pass up.  Lamb will team with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to give Prescott one of the most dangerous WR groups in the league.  TE Blake Jarwin has some potential but he hasn’t completely developed yet so the team needs him to take that next step.  The offense will now be under the direction of new head coach Mike McCarthy and the returning offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.  Moore did a nice job with this unit last year and adding McCarthy’s background should only make them better.

The defense got a makeover on the coaching staff as Mike Nolan comes in to fix things on that side of the ball.  The team got stronger up front as they added free agent Everson Griffin to pair with Demarcus Lawrence at DE and Dontari Poe comes in to strengthen the middle at DT.  They had added Gerald McCoy at DT also but he ended up with a season-ending injury and was bought out.  They are also trying Randy Gregory once again as he returns from another suspension and they brought in Aldon Smith who has been out of the league for quite a while.  Clearly, they are trying anything to help at DE.  At LB they have a great young pair in Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith but they don’t have much beyond those two.  They brought back Sean Lee but he’s already on IR to start the year which was predictable.  You will see this team use a two LB set quite often this season.  In the secondary they hope Trevon Diggs can become a top CB because they lost Byron Jones in free agency and they don’t have anyone else to replace him.  Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis are solid players but they aren’t elite CBs.  The team had signed Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at safety but he couldn’t win a starting job so they already cut him.  Xavier Woods and Darian Thompson are slated to start if Woods is healthy enough to begin the year.  There is a lot of speculation about the team signing Earl Thomas but so far speculation is all it is.

The Cowboys have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL and that should give them a leg up in this division but they need the defense to be better.  They lost Robert Quinn at DE and while Everson Griffin probably won’t make up all of Quinn’s production, they should be better overall up front with the addition of Poe and rookie Neville Gallimore.  Smith and Vander Esch are great but the secondary leaves a lot to be desired unless Trevon Diggs turns out to be amazing.  I see the Cowboys winning the division in a close race with Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles offense has a lot of good players and they should be good, but we will wait and see.  They built this team and this franchise around QB Carson Wentz and they have given him a good RB with 2020 breakout candidate Miles Sanders and a fantastic TE duo Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.  Up front they have veterans Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson solidified at C and RT respectively.  Andre Dillard was supposed to take over at LT until he suffered a season-ending injury in camp.  Long-time starting LT Jason Peters had returned to fill in for the injured Brandon Brooks at RG but just before the season he decided to agree to move back to LT.  That’s good news because if the team had to line up Matt Pryor or someone else on the roster at LT it may have been a bloodbath for Wentz.  Where the team struggles is at WR.  Alshon Jeffery returns but he’s just not the consistent playmaker the team needs.  DeSean Jackson is back but he doesn’t stay healthy.  They drafted Jalen Reagor and he’s a talented guy but he’s injured to start the year too and that might set his development back.  The team really needs one of their young guys like Reagor, John Hightower or JJ Arcega-Whiteside to step up.  Or really a couple of those guys.

The Eagles defense is stacked with guys in the prime of their careers, whether its just at the start of their prime (Derek Barnett, Avonte Maddox, Jalen Mills, etc.) or guys coming to the end of their prime (Fletcher Cox, Darius Slay, Rodney McLeod).  DE Brandon Graham is the old man of the group at 32 but he’s still effective and they hope Barnett can breakout opposite him.  Fletcher Cox has a been a perennial Pro Bowler for a while and he has Javon Hargrave and Malik Jackson forming a solid rotational trio with him inside.  The team isn’t overly talented at LB with Nate Gerry, TJ Edwards and Duke Riley slated to start but they aren’t bad.  The team traded for Darius Slay to solve the biggest problem they have had for a number of years, no #1 CB.  Slay is a big upgrade for them and I’m interested to see what he can do when he has more talent around him, he was a one-man show for a long time in Detroit.  Avonte Maddox is a solid #2 guy and Nickell Robey-Coleman is a good nickelback.  Jalen Mills is moving to safety and he should pair nicely with McLeod.

I think the Eagles can give the Cowboys a run but I worry about the offense with a compromised WR corps.  There will be a lot of pressure on Wentz and the running game to keep them in games and the Cowboys will be tough.  The Cowboys upgraded their coaching staff but I’m not sure what the Eagles have with their new shared offensive coordinator position.  Makes me a little nervous.

New York Giants

It’s a pick ‘em when it comes to the difference between New York and Washington in the NFC East standings.  In this case I’m picking the team with the better offensive line.  That’s a change of pace for the Giants as the offensive line hasn’t been their strength.  It’s not exactly a strength this year either but it’s considerably better than Washington’s.  LT Nate Solder opted out for the year but that just moves up Andrew Thomas’ ascension to the LT job to now instead of later.  It does mean the team is looking at starting two rookie OTs as Matt Peart is set to start at RT.  That would be a bad thing except this team has been bad at OT before and at least now they have some talent to work with.  LG Will Hernandez is good and RG Kevin Zeitler is a steady veteran.  If they get anything at center, they should be fine.  That will make things easier on QB Daniel Jones and that’s what they need, make it easy on him.  RB Saquon Barkley is a star who needs to stay healthy and that would be easier behind a better line.  TE Evan Engram also has the injury bug but he is also a top talent when on the field.  WR Sterling Shepard is the third member of the Giants that needs to kick the injury habit to make this offense better.  Golden Tate is a good complementary WR while Darius Slayton was a find last year as an unsung rookie who played quite well.  There’s some talent to work with here and it will be interesting to see what new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett does with this group when he doesn’t have Jerry Jones peaking over his shoulder and giving his two cents.

I’m not going to lie, this defense doesn’t look good on paper, they might be worse on a football field.  Up front they have Dexter Lawrence, Dalvin Tomlinson and Leonard Williams; that’s a lot of beef but not necessarily a lot of playmaking.  They need Williams to really wreak havoc.  This is a 3-4 defense so the pass rush is supposed to come from the OLBs.  Markus Golden had 10 sacks last season but he’s not exactly a guy teams have to game plan to stop.  Lorenzo Carter and Oshane Ximines had 4.5 each but that’s not a great total from your top three pass rushers.  The signed Blake Martinez to fill in one of the ILB spots but the other spot might be a problem.  The team’s big free agent addition was CB James Bradberry and while he comes in as a #1 guy, he’s about all they have.  DeAndre Baker was cut due to off-the-field issues and Sam Beal opted out, so the team is focused on Corey Ballentine as the #2.  They recently signed Logan Ryan to play FS but I’m not sure how he isn’t a better option at CB than Ballentine, time will tell how it shakes out.  Jabrill Peppers is the strong safety and he’s fine but he has to cover up too many mistakes by the guys in front of him and the guys behind him.

I like the potential of the offense more than what it might actually be and the defense might come together and not be as bad as I think it will be.  However, in today’s NFL I can see offenses running up major points against this team and the Giants offense isn’t good enough to keep up.

Washington Football Team

Washington is forgoing a team nickname this year as they are trying to decide what to use after ditching their former moniker, you know, the offensive one.  2020 is the perfect year for this to happen because calling the franchise the Washington Football Team isn’t in the top 200 of the weirdest things to happen in sports this year.  Ron Rivera has taken over and he should bring a stability to this franchise it hasn’t seen since Joe Gibbs’ first tenure as head coach.  Rivera is going to keep Dwayne Haskins as his QB since he needs to know if the kid is the future or if they need to quickly move on.  Haskins isn’t one of the major problems with this offense but he’ll have to deal with the other ones.  The left side of the offensive line is going to be dicey as they plan on having Geron Christian start at LT, that’s not ideal.  The LG spot is also unsettled and they aren’t great at center.  The good news is RG Brandon Scherff and RT Morgan Moses are solid, although Scherff is on a one-year franchise tag so the future is murky.  At WR, the team has an emerging star in Terry McLaurin and he has a great rapport with his former college teammate Haskins.  Beyond McLaurin they have Steven Sims who was decent last year and they could really use a big rookie year out of Antonio Gandy-Golden.  At RB the team dropped Darius Guice during the early part of camp due to off-the-field issues and then cut Adrian Peterson late because they want to lose games play younger guys.  They have Bryce Love who might actually be recovered from an injury that kept him on the sidelines for far too long and they have Antonio Gibson, a multitalented player who isn’t a pure RB, he’s more of hybrid.  Logan Thomas will play TE, how well is debatable.

The Washington defense has potential and with Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio in charge I wouldn’t bet against them.  Up front they have #2 overall pick Chase Young, second-year man Montez Sweat and veteran Ryan Kerrigan at DE, that a good trio and Young has exceptional skills.  At DT, they have Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis, that is also a good trio.  LB is a lot more problematic as they signed the hopefully ageless Thomas Davis who used to star for Rivera in Carolina.  They also have veteran Jon Bostic who has never been great.  Shaun Dion Hamilton and Cole Holcomb are guys they hope can give them something.  The secondary is looking at Kendall Fuller, Fabian Moreau and Ronald Darby at CB, not a stellar group but okay.  At safety they have Landon Collins, a talented veteran, and Troy Apke and unknown youngster.

This defense could keep them in games with Rivera and Del Rio knowing how to get the most out of this bunch but the offense is going to struggle.  I like Haskins, and McLaurin and Gibson have big play potential but the rest of the offense isn’t ready for prime time.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs offense is good.  What else is there to know?  Patrick Mahomes is the most accomplished QB ever under the age of 25, he’s won a Super Bowl and a league MVP and it wasn’t in the same season.  He runs an offense that was tailor-made for his skill set, which is pretty much every skill you could want a QB to have.  No lead is safe against the Chiefs, they proved that in the playoffs last year.  They replaced Damien Williams (who opted out for the year because of COVID-19-19) with a better version named Clyde Edwards-Helaire.  Edwards-Helaire is a dynamo and he fits nicely with WRs Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and TE Travis Kelce to make the Chiefs the most dynamic offense in football.  The offensive line also lost a starter at RG to a COVID-19 opt out but replaced him with a Kelechi Osemele who should be able to squeeze one more good season out of himself since he’s only 31.  The rest of the line is intact and they were pretty good last year.  Eric Fisher isn’t the best LT in the league but Mitchell Schwartz might be the best RT in the NFL. 

The Chiefs defense isn’t great but when your offense is one of the best the NFL has ever seen it really doesn’t matter as much.  That said, they did improve considerably last year over the year before and that is why they won the Super Bowl instead of losing in the playoffs.  Mahomes can erase a lot of mistakes but this defense has some players on it now.  DE Frank Clark and DT Chris Jones make life hard at the line of scrimmage and keep opposing QBs from feeling too comfortable.  S Tyrann Mathieu is a demon in the secondary and I’ll be interested to see what rookie LB Willie Gay can bring to the table.  He’s not a well-known player but he brings an athletic skill set to the defense they simply don’t have at that level.  This Chiefs defense is never going to be the ’85 Bears or Ray Lewis’ Ravens but as long as Patrick Mahomes is slinging it on offense, they don’t need to be. 

This team is the favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champs and I would have a hard time betting against them.  They added an even more dynamic RB to their already dynamic offense and kept DT Chris Jones around.  Mahomes got a mega-deal to stay in KC and that should please all Chiefs fans for a good long time.  Andy Reid was having fun last year and it looks like he’ll stick around a little while longer and that’s very good news. 

Denver Broncos

It’s no secret the Broncos are turning the offense over to QB Drew Lock.  They would have done it sooner but he has some injury issues and things just didn’t go that well early in his rookie year.  He looked much better later in the season and they are surrounding him with talent to aid his development.  The team already possessed a top WR in Courtland Sutton, a good RB in Phillip Lindsay and they like the potential of last year’s rookie TE Noah Fant, but that wasn’t enough.  They drafted Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler to complement Sutton at WR.  Jeudy is a favorite of mine and Hamler could be really good if used correctly.  They signed Melvin Gordan at RB and that’s an excellent addition at a very reasonable cost.  Then they added Drew Lock’s favorite target from his college days, TE Albert Okwuegbunam (I’m calling Albert O from now on).  They even revamped the offensive line with interior players Lloyd Cushenberry III (drafted in round 3) and Graham Glasgow (signed as a free agent).  Then they signed veteran Demar Dotson to compete at RT with Elijah Wilkinson to replace Ja’Wuan James who opted out for the year.  There is no reason this offense shouldn’t be good.

The Broncos defense added some serious talent to their 3-man front in DE Jurrell Casey.  Casey had been a mainstay for the Titans for years and was excellent for a long time.  He’s 30 years old and was getting a little expensive for the Titans so they moved him to Denver.  He still has some gas in the tank and he should improve the Broncos up front.  This defense is still built around OLB Von Miller but Miller is 31 and pass rushers don’t always age well.  The Broncos know they are running out of time to make the most of Miller on this defense.  Miller’s partner on the other side is Bradley Chubb, after a really good rookie year Chubb missed most of last season.  They need him to rebound because the secondary has taken a step back.  A good pass rush would offset some of the issues in the secondary so Miller and Chubb wreaking havoc is necessary for the team’s success.  Denver lost Chris Harris in free agency and traded for AJ Bouye as his replacement.  Bouye will need to step his game back up after faltering in Jacksonville.  The team gets Bryce Callahan back after he missed last year.  He’s best suited to the interior so they still need another outside CB.  Rookie Michael Ojemudia would have had a prime opportunity for the job but he’s missed a lot of time in training camp.  The have very little at CB after those guys.  They have a good safety duo in Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson but Jackson is 32 so age is becoming a factor. 

The team has done everything they can think of to make Drew Lock a successful QB when it comes to skill position talent around him.  They are counting pretty heavily on new offensive line coach Mike Munchak to turn around LT Garrett Bolles career and patch together the RT spot.  If the two OT spots don’t undermine the offense it should be fine.  The defense has some aging players the team hopes to squeeze just a little bit more out of before they are done.  That could be a risky proposition or a genius one.  This team won’t give the Chiefs a lot to worry about but I like them better than the Raiders or Chargers. 

Las Vegas Raiders

This Raiders team looks to have improved one of the biggest holes it had on offense this off season.  They spent numerous draft picks at WR and even picked up a free agent in Nelson Agholor.  Henry Ruggs III was their first-round pick and was always likely to start but a late camp injury to Tyrell Williams means there’s a good chance Bryan Edwards, a third-rounder, will also start.  Hunter Renfrow is their slot guy so they are going to be counting on plenty of youth to step up.  Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones are the veteran depth.  Last season this team discovered they had a star RB in Josh Jacobs and an emerging star TE in Darren Waller.  Both of them will major pieces to the offense this year.  They brought in depth at TE with veteran Jason Witten and he should be a reliable second TE.  The offensive line is a strength with all five starters back; LT Kolten Miller, LG Richie Incognito, C Rodney Hudson, RG Gabe Jackson and RT Trent Brown.  This offense’s ceiling will be determined by Derek Carr’s ability to utilize his new found talent at WR and not screw the rest of it up.  Ruggs is the deep threat, Edwards is the big target, Renfrow and Waller and his middle-of-the-field weapons, and Josh Jacobs is the bell cow in the backfield.  All protected by a very talented offensive line, there is no reason this shouldn’t be a great offense. 

The major piece of the puzzle that can hold this team back is its defense.  They front line should be good but DE Clelin Ferrell was a disappointment last year after being their top pick and only generating 4.5 sacks.  DE Maxx Crosby was a pleasant surprise on the other end after being a fourth-round pick and getting 10 sacks.  They need Ferrell to pick it up and either veteran Carl Nassib or Arden Key to step up as the third DE.  Maurice Hurst, Maliek Collins and Jonathan Hankins should make for a solid 3-man rotation at DT.  The LB group was terrible last year and they completely overhauled the group.  They brought in Nick Kwiatkowski and Cory Littleton in free agency and then traded for Raekwon McMillan during training camp.  This group has to be an improvement over last season.  CB is a tricky position for them because they basically have Trayvon Mullen as their top guy and they are hoping 1^st round rookie Damon Arnette really steps up.  That’s a dicey proposition when you consider they don’t have elite pass rushing up front.  They get Jonathan Abram back at safety and they added veteran Jeff Heath so that position should be better. 

The offense has potential to be elite while they have to hope the defense just gets better.  I don’t think the offense is going to look like the Chiefs but they are going to be better than they have been.  The upgrade at LB alone should seriously improve the defense and if Ferrell can develop at DE that would be quite helpful. 

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers offense bothers me in a few places, QB and offensive line.  Those aren’t great places to have questions.  QB Tyrod Taylor has been around the block in the NFL and while he’s not a terrible starting QB he’s not exactly setting the world on fire.  The truth is, he’s just holding down the spot until they think Justin Herbert is ready or they are eliminated from the playoffs and want to get started on the future, whichever comes first.  The offensive line added Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga to man the right side and they are upgrades from last season.  Unfortunately, Turner was added at the expense of LT Russell Okung who was traded for Turner and that means the team doesn’t have a legit LT.  Sam Tevi, last year’s RT, is slated to start at LT and that’s not great news.  Tevi and LG Dan Feeney on the left side are going to have to step it up for the offense to have time to work.  WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are an excellent duo but the team lacks depth.  They need rookies Joe Reed and KJ Hill to really show out.  Hunter Henry is a fantastic TE if he is healthy.  Austin Ekeler is a multi-talented RB they are counting on to be a major piece of the offense.  The problem is that TE Virgil Green, RB Justin Jackson and RB Joshua Kelley are solid but unspectacular backups and if anything happens to Henry or Ekeler the offense will be severely compromised. 

The defense has incredible potential to be elite if they stay healthy.  That is unfortunately been an overall problem for the Chargers for several years.  This season is already off to an auspicious start with safety Derwin James getting injured again with a season ending injury.  That shouldn’t stop this defense from being elite but it means some guys have to step up.  On the defensive line they have top pass rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram on the outside with newly acquired DT Linval Joseph ready to line up inside with Justin Jones and plug up the middle.  They drafted Kenneth Murray and he’s already slated to start at MLB and Nick Vigil was brought in to upgrade another LB spot.  These are big upgrades at the LB level.  At CB the team signed Chris Harris to pair with Casey Hayward and that’s as good of a duo at CB as anyone can have.  With Derwin James out it means Rayshawn Jenkins and Nasir Adderley will man the safety spots.  The team needs a bounce back season from Desmond King who struggled late last year.  King has the versatility to play multiple spots and they will need him to move between CB, nickelback and safety to make up for some of James’ absence. 

Step one for the Chargers is staying healthy, they have an unfortunate knack for having very key players get hurt.  Losing James for the season again, is not optimal.  I don’t like this offense because they are not built to keep up with everyone else in the division.  The Chargers defense is good but the Chief have an all-world offense and both the Broncos and the Raiders invested heavily in improving their offensive units.   

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings offense had some issues in the passing game last season but a lot of that was the healthy of Adam Thielen, this year they hope he stays healthy.  The problem now is they traded his partner Stefon Diggs and they are relying on a rookie, Justin Jefferson, to replace Diggs’ production.  Lucky for them Jefferson is a talented guy.  It will help if they get some production from veteran Tajee Sharpe or rookie KJ Osborn too.  The offensive line needs to play better but at this point they are counting on individuals stepping up their play more than personnel changes.  Unless rookie Ezra Cleveland can find a starting spot there isn’t much of a talent upgrade coming.  Where the team doesn’t need any help is at RB.  Dalvin Cook stayed healthy last year and he was fantastic.  They have a solid backup in Alexander Mattison and the team should use both of them to make the offense better.  Kirk Cousins isn’t fancy but he gets the job done and I think this team can move back to the top of the division. 

The reason this team can make a move is largely because of a trade they made just a few weeks prior to the regular season.  They picked up DE Yannick Ngakoue in a trade from Jacksonville.  They already have Danielle Hunter at one DE spot and Ngakoue makes them elite on the edges.  An elite pass rush should make things easier on their evolving secondary that will have new CBs all around.  With two top DEs getting pressure the entire defense will be much better.  Anthony Barr and Erick Kendricks will be free to roam at LB and Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris can create problems at safety.  They need Mike Hughes and rookie Jeff Gladney to play well at CB but they shouldn’t haven’t to cover for too long. 

I think the Vikings can make a move in the division because their defense should be improved and while they will miss Diggs in the passing game the offense should be more harmonious without his complaining about not getting the ball enough. Team unity should be improved and if Thielen is healthy and Jefferson plays like he’s able the offense can be better than last year.  Ngakoue can be a game changer on defense and Mike Zimmer already had a solid unit to begin with. 

Green Bay Packers

It should be a dogfight between Green Bay and Minnesota for the NFC North division.  The Packers had a really good year last year but they are not getting a lot of credit going into this season.  The offense is lead by Aaron Rodgers, in theory anyway.  Last year, new head coach Matt LaFleur leaned heavily on Aaron Jones and the running game because the passing offense is Rodgers to Davante Adams and not much else.  Jones wasn’t just the leading rusher he was also second in receptions behind Adams.  It was Jones that kept the offense running.  Jamaal Williams contributed too but this season the team is looking to rookie RB AJ Dillon to bring a different power dimension to the table.  This isn’t going to be a high-flying offense as long as LaFleur can hand the ball off to a solid stable of backs.  The offensive line is largely intact with the one exception being RT where Ricky Wagner replaces Bryan Bulaga.  Wagner was cheaper than bringing back Bulaga in free agency but there’s a reason he’s cheaper. 

The Packers defense is solid upfront with Kenny Clark being the major contributor in the middle.  After years of not spending money in free agency the team splurged last off season on OLB Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith and that worked out well as both guys were playmakers.  This season they got a new ILB in Christian Kirksey from Cleveland, they signed him as an alternative to re-signing Blake Martinez who got big money from the Giants.  The Packers haven’t been ones to spend money on ILB and Kirksey was cheaper and he’s a solid addition if he’s healthy.  The secondary is very good and could be even better this year.  CBs Kevin King and Jaire Alexander were good last year with safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage Jr playing well.  If Josh Johnson can bounce back from an off year this secondary can be one of the best in the game. 

This team played well under Matt LaFleur and he showed that even though he has one of the best QBs in football he understands that the offense can’t be all Rodgers.  The team didn’t help Rodgers out much in the passing game this off season but adding AJ Dillon adds a major power element to the run game.  For a team that went 13-3 last season the Packers haven’t been mentioned as an elite contender this year and I think people see a little regression coming, I agree.  It will be a fight to the end between Minnesota and Green Bay for the division. 

Detroit Lions

I’m not sure the Lions are much better than the Bears and I’m not sure the Bears are much better than the Lions so when in doubt give the edge to the team with the better QB.  Matthew Stafford was off to a blistering pace last season before he had an injury, clearly having Darrell Bevell as his offensive coordinator agreed with him.  This season the team is hoping a healthy TJ Hockenson at TE and rookie RB D’Andre Swift will add the playmakers the offense needs.  Kerryon Johnson is a solid RB when he’s healthy but that just isn’t often enough and Swift is a bigger playmaker.  The team is clearly not willing to rely on Johnson as they made a late signing of veteran Adrian Peterson.  Peterson was cut by Washington and now he returns to the NFC North.  He still has something left and he could pair nicely with Swift and render Kerryon Johnson moo.  Hockenson can be a game breaker over the middle if he stays healthy and has Stafford throwing to him all year.  Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola may not be household names but they are a good NFL trio.  The offensive line needs a rookie from Ohio St., Jonah Jackson, and a free agent signee from Philadelphia whose name I do not want to try to type out, to step up at RG and RT respectively.  If they keep Matthew Stafford upright and healthy, he can sling it with the best of him and D’Andre Swift is the best RB this team has had since Barry Sanders retired. Peterson is the bigger name but he’s 35 and slowing down. The offense has potential.

The defense has potential, unfortunately it has the potential to be pretty ugly if things don’t go exactly right.  They do not have an elite pass rusher but Matt Patricia comes from the Belichick school of defense where you don’t need one elite guy if you can generate it from multiple points.  They have Trey Flowers at one DE spot, he’s good for seven sacks in a good year.  Romeo Okwara is the other starter but the team really needs his younger brother, rookie Julian Okwara, to take that job and run with it.  Julian was a heck of a prospect out of Notre Dame before he got hurt last year and he has pass rushing potential.  The Lions signed Jamie Collins to play LB and he can also get to the QB and has played in this defensive system before.  He’s pretty hit-or-miss as to how effective he can be but when he’s on he can wreak havoc.  The secondary finally freed Darius Slay when they shipped him off to Philadelphia.  They signed Desmond Trufant from the Falcons to man one spot and drafted Jeff Okudah to be their top guy.  Trufant isn’t the guy he was a few years ago so they need him to rebound and Okudah is a real talent but it’s a big ask to have a rookie line up as your #1 CB in a division that has Adam Thielen, Davante Adams and Allen Robinson.  Not to mention a schedule the features matchups with guys like Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, TY Hilton and Mike Evans.  Okudah will get some baptism by fire in year one.  The Lions were pretty bad last year and if they don’t improve a lot Matt Patricia will be another failed Bill Belichick disciple as a head coach.   

Chicago Bears

The Bears went 8-8 and are largely going to trot out the same team they had last year unless you believe Nick Foles is coming to save the day, he already lost the starting job…for now.  Not to rain on the Bears’ fans parade but in Foles career he’s had exactly one good season and one incredible playoff run several years after that as a fill-in.  His one good year he had a TD-Interception ratio of 27-2, that’s amazing but he also only threw for 2800 yards or so and only started 10 games.  This is still Mitch Trubisky’s team until he gives it away.  Allen Robinson is a solid #1 WR and I like Anthony Miller but the team felt the need to pluck Ted Ginn from the retirement line, he’s 35 and was never that great of a WR.  That doesn’t fill me with confidence in Riley Ridley contributing any time soon.  Tarik Cohen is a RB in name only and David Montgomery just got hurt and is going to miss some time.  They have to hope Cole Kmet can shine as a rookie TE otherwise they are hoping against hope that Jimmy Graham’s corpse can contribute.  Graham hasn’t been a game changer in about five years.  You could say I’m pessimistic about the Bears offense but that would be offensive to pessimism.  The best news on offense from the off season was they dismissed their offensive coordinator but then they followed that up by hiring a former Bengals offensive coordinator, it wasn’t even the good one, Jay Gruden, it was Bill Lazor.  Not a lot of teams are looking to recreate the juggernaut that was the Andy Dalton era Bengals offense that never won a playoff game.

Thankfully the Bears defense has been elite and even after losing former coordinator Vic Fangio the team didn’t really miss a beat under Chuck Pagano.  They run a 3-4 defense and usually defensive linemen are fairly non-descript in three-man fronts but Akiem Hicks has been quite a player for the Bears.  Obviously, Khalil Mack is the driving force of the defense and he is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.  Without him the defense is just not the same.  The team tried to get him some help by spending big free agent money on Robert Quinn, bringing him in from Dallas.  I’m not a fan of the move because Quinn has only been effective in his career as a 4-3 DE and failed pretty spectacularly when he’s been asked to be a pass rushing OLB.  If Pagano can make him an effective player at that spot, he should get coach of the decade because other great coaches (most notably Wade Phillips) failed to do so.  In the secondary they have a great safety in Eddie Jackson and I really like their pick of Jaylon Johnson at CB in the draft.  Kyle Fuller is effective at the other CB spot but I’m still not sure they have a great plan at SS.  The choice between Tashaun Gipson and Deon Bush isn’t exactly exciting.

I don’t think the Bears are going to be terrible, their defense simply won’t let that happen.  However, barring a major step by Trubisky or Bill Lazor becoming a genius level play caller the offense doesn’t look like it’s really going to improve.  I’m not sure what the plan was to get better this off season but I’m not seeing it.  With Stafford back healthy in Detroit the Lions should be better and I don’t think the Vikings or Packers are going to fall off that much which doesn’t leave the Bears much wiggle room.