I thought I was about as pessimistic about the Iowa Hawkeye offense as I could be and yet I undersold it by a lot. The defense was as elite as I thought they would be and Tory Taylor made it as difficult as possible for the Jackrabbits to get anything going but the offense keep SDSU in the game all day. The offensive line wasn’t great, the WRs weren’t great, the offensive game plan was nonexistent and Spencer Petras was downright awful. Kirk Ferentz can talk about “cleaning things up” and how everyone has responsibility but his coach speak is absolutely tiresome. The only reason this was the Almost Disaster Game is because Iowa’s defense won it, they may not be so lucky next week and they certainly won’t be this lucky in Big Ten play.

Petras may look good during practice but it’s easy to look good when the defense isn’t allowed to hit you. When the “bullets are flying”, so to speak, Petras is bad. His footwork is terrible, his mechanics fall apart and he can’t complete the simplest of passes. Even when he gets time in the pocket, he rushes as if he’s under duress, and misses open receivers. His throws are behind guys, over guys, or five feet out in front of guys (he should apologize to Sam LaPorta, Leshon Williams, Alec Wick, and many others). Understanding the offense in theory and completing passes in controlled practice environments is nice but Ferentz needs to take off his rose-colored glasses and watch Petras during the games. I understand it’s a tough watch, I know, I did it myself, it’s no fun watching abject failure, but that’s the job.

I’ve been as apprehensive as anyone of turning the offense over to Alex Padilla. He didn’t show me anything last year that makes me think he’s the absolute answer to solve the QB problems but you have to at least start there. Give him a chance to see if he can step up in a game atmosphere, he wasn’t great last year but he wasn’t Petras-level bad. His ability to move around should be helpful behind an offensive line that still isn’t a sure thing. If he doesn’t take control of the offense, what’s the harm in giving Joe Labas a shot? The book on Labas is that he isn’t great at running the designed offense but when it breaks down, he’s really good at improvising. From what I saw on Saturday, this offense could use some creativity, even if it’s just coming from a QB who’s making it up as he goes.

The offensive line had it’s struggles, it couldn’t get any push in the running game but that’s hard to do when the defense isn’t remotely scared of your QB or your passing game. The pass blocking has some holes too and it certainly isn’t going to get an easier next week against Iowa St. The Jackrabbits had a solid defensive line but they didn’t have anyone like ISU’s Will McDonald. Spencer Petras is a statue in the pocket and that isn’t going to bode well against a better pass rusher. I have confidence the offensive line can get better, they have talent, but they aren’t going to be great by next week and this offense isn’t doing them any favors. The play calling is unimaginative, Petras always holds the ball at least a second too long, and it’s hard to run block when there’s always eight or nine guys in the box. The running game won’t get going as long as Iowa’s opponents don’t respect the passing game and after watching Petras on Saturday, no one is scared of Iowa’s passing game except Iowa fans.

The defense was as elite as I thought it would be even without getting much rest since the offense couldn’t sustain a drive for any reasonable amount of time. Tory Taylor was an absolute star as a punter and Iowa doesn’t come close to winning this game without his excellence and that of the special team’s coverage units. I respect the man Kirk Ferentz has always been but his inability to see what is right in front of him is going to diminish his on field legacy at Iowa. His refusal to acknowledge the obvious problems with his offense is simply unacceptable. People like to talk about a coach who led his team to 10 wins and a Big Ten West title last season, but just think of what the Hawkeyes could have been if the offense was even remotely competent. I said I thought Iowa’s defense could be top five in the country, and I truly believe it. With this defense the Hawkeyes might win the West again even if the offense is bottom ten in the country. But what if Iowa could field an offense at some point that was top fifty in the country? (That’s really not asking much) That team could make a College Football Playoff push. That team would certainly be playing in a major bowl game. It’s simply a dereliction of duty for Ferentz to continue to trot out an offense that is this bad, it has gone on too long. I hate to say this but either the head coach makes a change or the head coach has to change.

The 2022 Iowa Hawkeyes are going to be an interesting bunch.  The offense is the great unknown. They were quite terrible last year and there isn’t a bunch of changes that make me confident they can be better.  It’s been a tough training camp with injuries especially at WR and some key ones on the offensive line.  The line will be young again but most of them got some experience last season, well, some of them did anyway. Kirk Ferentz’s overall offensive philosophy has always been conservative, don’t turn the ball over, don’t put your defense in a bad position and win close games. I think that philosophy is wrong when you have defense like this one. Take chances, who cares if you screw up, this defense will stop anyone, anytime, anywhere. The defense has a chance to be one of the best in the country, legitimately, top five in the nation.

Iowa released its two-deeps for the first game against South Dakota St. but those rarely reflect reality.  I’m skipping a look at the official two-deeps for a look at a more realistic look at the roster.  The offense is going to be a work in progress with a bunch of injuries keeping guys out and the offensive line is in flux. I love this defense.  The offense might give me an ulcer.  Welcome to being an Iowa Hawkeye football fan for 2022.  Here’s a look at what might be this year for the Hawkeyes.

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Starter: Spencer Petras (SR)

Backup: Alex Padilla (JR)

When Kirk Ferentz talked about the QB job being an open competition what he really meant was someone was going to have to take the job from Petras and Padilla just hasn’t been able to do that.  I had high hopes for Petras last year but I have much lower expectations this season, that said, I saw nothing out of Padilla that makes me think he’s a serious upgrade and clearly the coaching staff feels the same way.  Joe Labas, the third-string redshirt freshman didn’t seem to make any headway either, he’s not really even in competition for the backup job.  This offense isn’t going to be pass heavy with a QB that doesn’t inspire confidence and WR corps that looks like the walking dead. 

Wide Receivers

Starters: Keagan Johnson (SO), Arland Bruce (SO), Nico Ragaini (SR) (when healthy)

Backups: Alec Wick (RS Fr), Brody Brecht (RS Fr), Jacob Bostick (FR)

This unit is in dire straits at the moment.  Keagan Johnson has been out of action with an unknown ailment for quite some time and it’s a mystery if he’ll be a go in week one.  He’s the most talented WR the Hawkeyes have and they need him badly. Nico Ragaini is the most experienced guy they have and he’s also out with an injury to start the year.  He should be back but he’s going to miss several weeks.  The team also lost Jackson Ritter to a season ending knee injury, he played as a walk-on last season.  Diante Vines was reportedly having a good camp with all the guys out and was looking to finally make a move for playing time, then he got hurt (broken wrist), he could miss half the year.  Brody Brecht is a talented redshirt freshman who has also missed almost all of camp with an injury after missing much of last year with an injury.  He needs the practice and he just hasn’t had it at this point.  I think that covers the major injuries.  Let’s look at who’s left.

The most important WR is Arland Bruce IV.  He’s a playmaker and those are in short supply with this unit.  He’s going to be the focal point of the group until Johnson gets back. He can play inside or out and they are going to have to look for favorable matchups for him in space, he can be dynamic.  Alec Wick is a walk-on redshirt freshman and he’s going to get plenty of snaps to start the year.  He’s been steady and healthy, two things this team needs.  Brody Brecht just returned to practice and the team is hoping he can pick things up quickly and give them some quality snaps as the big, outside receiver.  Jacob Bostick is a true freshman they were probably hoping to redshirt but he and Bruce are the only scholarship WRs to be healthy throughout camp, he’s at least going to play the first few games until they get some guys back. 

Running Back/Fullback

Starters: Gavin Williams (SO), Monte Pottebaum (SR)

Backups: Leshon Williams (SO), Kaleb Johnson (FR), Jaziun Patterson (FR), Turner Pallissard (SR)

The running game is going to take on an outsized importance especially early in the year when with so much uncertainty at the WR position.  Gavin Williams started the bowl game last season and Leshon Williams played quite a bit too.  They both looked good running hard and getting up field behind an improved offensive line.  Gavin Williams has missed some time during training camp allowing Leshon Williams to step up and that also allowed Kaleb Johnson, a true freshman, to really show out.  Johnson is a special talent and he will play this season.  That’s three running backs who will get carries.  Jaziun Patterson is another talented freshman who could also get some playing time.  If all three guys ahead of him are healthy, his opportunities might be limited. 

Monte Pottebaum is a very good fullback and in Iowa’s offense, that actually means something.  He gives the Hawkeyes an excellent blocker, a guy who can get some carries, and a guy who can catch out of the backfield.  He could even give them some reps at TE if they need him.  Turner Pallissard is more than capable of playing fullback if they need to move Pottebaum around.    

Tight End

Starters: Sam LaPorta (SR), Luke Lachey (SO)

Backups: Addison Ostrenga (FR), Steven Stilianos (JR)

Sam LaPorta has been a mainstay in this offense since his freshman year and he’s only getting better.  His role will expand quite a bit with the problems at WR.  LaPorta is going to be asked to split out wide a bit more and play the X receiver spot to make up for the WR deficiencies and that’s not a bad thing.  He is more than capable of being a weapon outside and luckily some guys are stepping up at TE to allow LaPorta to move around.  I’m listing Luke Lachey as a starter because there’s no way they are going to pass up two TE sets with LaPorta and Lachey in favor of using WRs when the WR group is so thin.  Lachey is a massive breakout candidate and his development is a big reason they are comfortable moving LaPorta around.  Lachey is a massive target over the middle and he can have big year. 

Addison Ostrenga is a true freshman that seems to get praise every time people talk about him.  It’s not unheard of for a freshman to play and it’s good to know the future of the TE position looks to be in good hands.  Stilianos is a transfer from a smaller school who’s still getting up to speed on the offense but he’s an older player with good size and they can find a role for him. 

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Mason Richman (SO), LG Tyler Elsbury (SO), C Logan Jones (SO), RG Gennings Dunker (RS Fr), Connor Colby (SO) (This is the group I would like to see get playing time together)

Backups: Jack Plumb (SR), Beau Stephens (RS Fr), Michael Myslinski (RS Fr), Nick DeJong (JR), Matt Fagan

Have you ever tried to nail Jell-O to a wall?  That’s what it’s been like trying to piece together who’s starting where on this offensive line.  Mason Richman was out for a bit during camp but he’s supposed to be back practicing and if he’s healthy, he’s the starting LT.  His injury (and possibly some other players ailments) apparently led to Connor Colby moving from RG to RT in practice out of necessity.  My guess is his talent could keep him at RT.  Colby started as a true freshman at RG and he’s so talented.  I think his move to tackle will stick.  Logan Jones was a DT last year, now he’s the starting center.  Iowa’s pulled off that transition before, let’s hope this one works out just as well.  The guard positions are harder to decern.  Tyler Elsbury has looked good and I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Gennings Dunker has emerged as a beast inside and that gives the coaches more confidence in leaving Colby outside with Dunker able to hold down the RG spot.  Dunker isn’t listed on the official two-deeps at all and that seemed to come as news to Kirk Ferentz in his weekly press conference.  Hence the reason I put little stock in what the two-deeps say.   

Plumb is a senior who has started at both LT and RT and if Richman isn’t ready week one, Plumb gets the start at LT.  Unfortunately for him, I think Colby will prove to be a better RT and that means if Richman is back, Plumb is the swing tackle. Nick DeJong is the other backup tackle who could also man a guard spot if needed.  He struggled last year at RT and has fallen behind some younger guys at this point but he’s an experienced backup if needed.  Beau Stephens and Michael Myslinski could very well end up starters at some point.  Stephens could start instead of Elsbury at LG, I’m going with Elsbury out of gut instinct.  Myslinski seems to have lost the starting center job to Jones but if Jones struggles, they could go with Myslinski at some point. I don’t think Jones will struggle that much but he is young and inexperienced (so is Myslinski for that matter).  Matt Fagan is a senior walk-on who gives them some depth inside but he’s been passed up by a lot of younger guys so he’s really just a depth piece at this point.  It would be nice if the Hawkeyes could find five guys, settle on them as starters, and have a consistent offensive line.  This is one seriously young group with only Plumb, DeJong, and Fagan as upper classmen.  These guys are really talented but it could be a development year up front. 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Starters: DE John Waggoner (SR), DT Noah Shannon (SR), Logan Lee (JR), Lukas Van Ness (SO)

Backups: DE Joe Evans (SR), DE Deontae Craig (SO), DE Ethan Hurkett (SO), DT Yahya Black (SO), DT Aaron Graves (FR)

This is the best and deepest position on the team.  I’ve listed nine guys for four spots but there are legitimately four other guys who could see action but let’s look at the starters.  John Waggoner is the rock at DE, he’s not flashy but he’s consistent and tough.  I’m actually hoping for one of those breakout senior years we have seen from guys before.  He’s been a solid starter, now maybe he gets a little bit more of the spotlight.  However, that’s going to be hard to do with Lukas Van Ness at the other end.  Van Ness tied for the team lead last year in sacks as a backup DT, now it looks like he could move to end full-time. Joe Evans (I’ll get to him in a minute) missed some action in camp and opened the door for Van Ness at end.  This could be a Connor Colby type of situation; he moved out of necessity but stays because he’s just too good.  Van Ness has a chance to not only be a breakout star for Iowa, he could be a national breakout star.  Evans is listed as the starter officially but I just can’t see Van Ness being a backup DT (as he’s listed) with his potential. 

The DT spot is in great hands too.  Noah Shannon has been a steady player who is also ready to be more dominant inside.  Logan Lee has also come on strong since he came back from an injury last year and is only getting better. These two have to be at their very best because Yahya Black is coming hard for his playing time after being a starter early last season.  Black has the size that Shannon and Lee don’t really possess and you will see these three rotate plenty at tackle.

Joe Evans was supposed to finally be a starter at DE but he may have lost that spot due to no fault of his own.  Iowa will rotate DEs and Evans will play plenty but Van Ness is too good to keep off the field.  Ethan Hurkett has also looked good during camp and the coaches like Deontae Craig too.  He was a backup last year when he was healthy.  That’s five DEs, luckily Van Ness can play inside too (I don’t think he comes off the field that much).  True freshmen rarely play on the defensive line but Aaron Graves is a rare true freshman.  Kirk Ferentz has talked openly about Graves looking like he belongs so they are going to use him.  He doesn’t have to be a superstar for this group right now, but he has future superstar written all over him.  I mentioned there is even more depth. DT Louie Stec, DE Max Llewellyn, DT Jeremiah Pittman, and DE Chris Reames have all been mentioned at times as having good camps.  By my count, that’s 13 defensive linemen that could conceivably get snaps, that’s insane depth. 

Linebackers

Starters: MLB Jack Campbell (SR), WLB Seth Benson (SR), LEO Jestin Jacobs (JR), CASH Cooper DeJean (SO)S

Backups: Jay Higgins (JR), Kyler Fisher (JR), Karson Sharar (RS Fr)

This LB corps is being mentioned as one of the best ever at Iowa and that’s saying something.  Jack Campbell is a preseason All-American, top pick for Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and that might be underselling how good he is.  He’s big, he’s fast, he’s athletic, he’s a leader, and he sets the tone for this defense.  He’s joined by his running mate Seth Benson, the most overlooked defender in the country.  He’s Scottie Pippen to Campbell’s Michael Jordan.  Benson is a stud and he doesn’t get the attention he deserves, except from opposing offenses, they know how good he is.  Iowa instituted the CASH position a few years ago to help combat the spread offenses they were seeing and it’s been a big success, this year you will see less of it.  It’s not because it’s not effective or they don’t have the talent to run it, it’s because Jestin Jacobs is too good to keep off the field.  He’s a fast, super athletic LB who can do everything you want a LB to do, it’s an embarrassment of riches for Phil Parker’s defense.  Cooper DeJean is one of the best athletes you’re going to see in college football this year.  He’s ready to step into the CASH role when they use it but when he isn’t playing there, he’ll be a CB, a safety, a kick returner and if things get much worse at WR…don’t say I didn’t warn you (I’m kidding but maybe I shouldn’t be).

Jay Higgins and Kyler Fisher are guys who would start for a lot of teams in college football this season, the just have the unfortunate luck to play on a team that is absolutely stacked at LB.  They will both be major players on special teams and when Campbell, Benson, and Jacobs need a breather, they will step in just fine.  I mention Karson Sharar because he’s received a lot of praise as a young LB who looks poised to step in when it’s his turn.  He probably won’t get a ton of snaps on defense this year, but remember his name. 

Defensive Backs

Starters: CB Riley Moss (SR), CB Terry Roberts (SR), SS Kaevon Merriweather (SR), FS Quinn Schulte (JR)

Backups: CB Cooper DeJean (SO), CB TJ Hall (FR), CB Jermari Harris (JR), S Xavier Nwankpa (FR), S Sebastian Castro (JR), S Reggie Bracy (JR)

The Iowa defense is stacked and the secondary is no exception.  Riley Moss was the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year last season and yet he returned for his fifth year.  He’s a preseason All-American like his teammate Jack Campbell and he leads this unit.  Terry Roberts will get the start in week one with Jermari Harris suspended for an offseason OWI but don’t expect Roberts to just hand the job back to Harris after that.  Harris has also missed time in camp with an injury so it’s Roberts’ job until further notice.  Kaevon Merriweather returns for his senior year as the strong safety, he’s a great athlete who has only gotten better over the years.  FS Quinn Schulte is the former walk-on who Phil Parker turned into a starter on the back end of the defense.  It’s a pretty typical Phil Parker success story, he finds underappreciated high school athletes, brings them in as defensive backs, and develops them into Big Ten starters.  Schulte has earned this spot for sure; he’s holding off guys like Cooper DeJean, five-star true freshman Xavier Nwankpa, Reggie Bracy, and Sebastian Castro, all guys who could be starting safeties. 

DeJean is listed as the backup at one CB spot, he could start there if he wasn’t starting at CASH.  He could also potentially start at SS, FS, DE, QB, WR, FB…wherever they need him, just keep him on the field.  Jermari Harris would likely have been the starting CB opposite Moss but he had an OWI in the offseason, he got hurt in camp, and he has to make his way back up the depth chart.  He can do it, but it won’t be handed to him.  True freshman TJ Hall came in at semester last year and competed during spring practice.  He’s a talented youngster the coaches are pretty high on.  He’s a backup while Harris is suspended but he could get snaps even when he gets back.  Sebastian Castro and Reggie Bracy have put in the time and are still waiting patiently for their opportunity.  They are really solid backup options at safety.  Xavier Nwankpa is as talented a freshman as Iowa has ever had, he’ll get some playing time but they may still be figuring out is best position.  Is it SS, FS, CASH, or otherwise?  He can play all over.   

Special Teams

Kicker: Drew Stevens (TR Fr) and Aaron Blom (SO) have been battling it out since the spring.  They both have gotten better since then and they both could have a role early. 

Punter: Tory Taylor is one of the best punters in the country.  He also happens to be a good-looking dude with an Australian accent.  All I’m saying is it’s Tory Taylor’s world and we are all just living in it.    

Returners: This is a bit of a mystery after Charlie Jones transferred to Purdue.  Cooper DeJean is up for the job; Riley Moss might be the guy.  They would probably give Arland Bruce IV a shot but they can’t risk him with the rest of the WRs so banged up. DeJean and Moss are the leaders but just for fun some other names to consider; WR Alec Wick, WR Kaden Wetjen, RB Leshon Williams, RB Jaziun Patterson, RB Deavin Hilson, DB Xavier Nwankpa, CB Terry Roberts, CB AJ Lawson or who knows, maybe someone else.

Every year I like to make my predictions for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the year, division winners (you can get those from my previews too), my playoff teams and my Super Bowl pick.  This is an exercise in futility as I never get these right but hell, what else do I have to do.  Here it goes…I reserve the right to be wrong about all of it, because I’m clearly going to be wrong about all of it. 

MVP

Top Contenders: QB Josh Allen, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Tom Brady, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Jonathan Taylor, DT Aaron Donald

Sleepers: QB Matt Stafford, QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Herbert

This is a QB award and right now it belongs to Aaron Rodgers but he’s going to have a harder time holding on to it without Devante Adams around.  Tom Brady is always in the conversation but his bar is set so high because he has been so great that if he didn’t win it last year with the stats he had, he’s not pulling it off unless the Bucs go 17-0.  Mahomes might have a chance if he can be just as productive without having Tyreek Hill and if he can win the very tough AFC West. Lamar Jackson was having a good year last year until he got hurt, if he gets back on track, he’s won it before.  Jonathan Taylor has to run for 2000 yards and the Colts need to be a top two AFC seed in the playoffs for him to have a puncher’s chance, like I said, it’s a QB’s award.  I included Aaron Donald because he’s the best defensive player in the NFL, even if they didn’t give him that award last year. 

Stafford won a Super Bowl but still doesn’t get the credit he deserves for being as good as he is sometimes.  Now he has Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson so maybe he throws for 5000 yards and the Rams go 15-2, then he has a shot.  If Wilson could navigate the Broncos to win the AFC West he would be in the conversation for sure, or at least he might finally get an MVP vote. Herbert is going to win this award someday, I don’t think this is someday, but it could be if he takes down the AFC West title and actually makes the playoffs. 

My Pick: Josh Allen.  It’s tough to bet against him, the Bills are stacked and they are going for it.  The win the AFC East, probably easily, possible #1 seed and they are the Super Bowl favorite.  It’s his award to lose at the moment. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: DT Aaron Donald, OLB TJ Watt, CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Nick Bosa, DE Myles Garrett

Sleepers: DE Chandler Jones, S Minkah Fitzpatrick

TJ Watt tied the sack record last year and won this award, rightfully so.  Just like the MVP award almost always goes to a QB you have to be either a big sack guy or a big interception guy to get noticed for Defensive Player of the Year.  Aaron Donald is the best interior pass rusher in the league and is just a game wrecker so everyone recognizes how great he is.  Bosa and Garrett are the other two guys who could put up a 20+ sack season and get in on the race.  Jalen Ramsey is the best defensive back in the NFL and he changes the way offenses play, his biggest problem is Donald generally gets more of the credit for the Rams defense when they’re good. 

Chandler Jones has been a major sack guy even when he was in Arizona and he was the only real pass rushing threat.  Now he joins the Raiders who have Maxx Crosby so his sack numbers could go up.  If the Raiders surprise in the AFC West with him going off, he could get in the conversation.  Minkah Fitzpatrick is the major chess piece for the Steelers’ defense, if he could get out of Watt’s shadow, he could have a chance at this award. 

My Pick: DE Nick Bosa.  I think Bosa could have a huge year and could get to 20 sacks.  If San Francisco’s defense is one of the best it will be because of Bosa. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders:  WR Drake London, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave, RB Breece Hall, RB Kenneth Walker III, WR George Pickens, RB James Cook

Sleepers: RB Brian Robinson, WR Romeo Doubs, RB Dameon Peirce

Well, there’s no QB who seems to be in the running.  Kenny Pickett could steal the starting job in Pittsburgh but that’s still questionable.  No one else is starting.  Drake London should put up some numbers considering he has almost no competition for targets other than Kyle Pitts.  Wilson and Olave will be important parts of their respective offenses but they won’t be the top guys.  They are very talented so they could really break out.  Breece Hall is still fighting Michael Carter for the starting job but he’s the better talent. Walker could have a big year if he gets the starting nod instead of Rashaad Penny once he’s fully healthy.  Penny has had injury issues in his career so it’s completely possible.  George Pickens has been the break out star of Steelers camp but for now his QB is Mitchell Trubisky and he has two WRs ahead of him in the pecking order in Pittsburgh at the moment, that hurts his chances.  James Cook is going to be the pass catching back in an offense that loves to throw the ball. 

Brian Robinson has a shot to be the starter in Washington because clearly Ron Rivera has reservations about Antonio Gibson.  Robinson has serious breakout potential.  Romeo Doubs might be the best WR in Green Bay, including Allen Lazard, he’s certainly the best rookie WR there.  Peirce should be the top RB in Houston, I’m just not sure Houston’s offense can be good enough to get him the numbers he needs. 

My Pick:  Brian Robinson.  This is the year to look at a dark horse because there’s no QB and the WR’s are so dependent on others and London is the only one that’s the #1 WR right now.  Robinson goes for 1400 yards as the Commanders try to take the ball out of Carson Wentz’s hands. If you want a really out of the box sleeper, it’s OT Braxton Jones from the Bears.  I think he’s legit but offensive lineman almost never win these awards. He would have to be dominant.  *UPDATE* Brian Robinson was shot twice in his lower body yesterday, he’s out for the foreseeable future. It was apparently some sort of carjacking. He’s stable and his injuries are not life threatening, that’s really good to hear. Clearly, he’s probably out a while and his ROY chances are slim now. I’m still picking a sleeper, it’s Dameon Pierce.  

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Aidan Hutchinson, OLB Travon Walker, CB Derek Stingley Jr, CB Sauce Gardner, OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, S Kyle Hamilton

Sleepers: S Jaquan Brisker, LB Nakobe Dean, S Nick Cross

Hutchinson feels like a pretty solid bet here considering he’s going to play a lot and there isn’t anyone stealing his thunder in Detroit.  Not having a lot of help might hurt his stats but I think he’ll be just fine.  Walker might lose out on sacks to Josh Allen so his numbers might be depressed.  Stingley is fantastic and he’s already the top CB in Houston but it’s the Texans so he’s going to have to really shine to win an award.  Gardner should also be a top CB but he too plays on a team that might not help him out much.  Thibodeaux would have been in a good spot but he might miss some time early with a knee injury and that might set him back.  Hamilton plays on the right defense but there’s a lot of competition for snaps in Baltimore, he might get eased in. 

Brisker and Cross are in the same boat.  They weren’t drafted high but they both walk in as day one starters at safety.  Cross is on the better defense in Indy but Brisker might make more plays in Chicago with a young secondary around him.  Dean is listed as the backup to TJ Edwards in Philadelphia but I just can’t see them leaving his talent on the bench. 

My Pick:  Aidan Hutchinson.  He isn’t the flashiest pass rusher but he’s just relentless.  He’s going to have 12-14 sacks and that should be enough to get him noticed.  All bets are off if Nakobe Dean leads the NFL in tackles though. 

NFC Playoffs

Division Winners

LA Rams

Tampa Bay

Green Bay

Philadelphia

Wild Card teams (there’s 3 now)

New Orleans

San Francisco

Minnesota

AFC Playoffs

Division Winners

Buffalo

Kansas City

Indianapolis

Cincinnati

Wild Card teams (yep, 3 here too)

LA Chargers

Baltimore

Las Vegas

(Yes, I left New England out of the playoffs.  I like a lot about the team itself but I have zero confidence in the offensive coaching staff until I see them do something real.  I have more confidence in the Iowa Hawkeye offensive play calling than I do in New England). 

NFC Championship

LA Rams vs. Green Bay

AFC Championship

Buffalo vs. Cincinnati

Super Bowl

LA Rams vs. Buffalo

Super Bowl Champions

Buffalo Bills (it hurts to say it, I’m hoping it’s a jinx)    

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts sent Carson Wentz packing after a year and made a trade for Matt Ryan.  Ryan will be a much more impactful leader for this team as Wentz was never that guy.  The passing game should be fine if they can get more out of the guys behind Michael Pittman Jr.  Pittman had a breakout year last season but he’s the only sure thing for Matt Ryan.  Parris Campbell has never stayed healthy in his career, TY Hilton is out the door, and Alec Pierce is a rookie.  Pierce is a good-looking prospect but he’s never played an NFL snap.  The rest of the depth chart at WR is pretty bleak.  TE Mo Alie-Cox is likely to be a Ryan favorite.  Ryan used his TEs in Atlanta quite well and Alie-Cox is a good player. 

The running game will be the focus of the Colts offense as Jonathan Taylor proved to be the top RB in the league last year.  He handled an impressive workload and was quite dominate most of the year.  He’s not alone either, Nyheim Hines carved out a role for himself and the team even added Phillip Lindsay for depth.  The offensive line has been a strength for years but they need to fill the hole at LT.  Eric Fisher didn’t work and now they are hoping either Matt Pryor or rookie Bernhard Raimann can fill the spot.  I’m still not convinced they won’t make a move (either a signing or trade) before the season starts.  Quenton Nelson is still the top guard in the league.  C Ryan Kelly is quite good when he’s healthy and RT Braden Smith is an underappreciated talent.  Danny Pinter looks to replace Mark Glowinski at RG; he should be fine.  This unit is almost always better than the sum of its parts, they hope that’s true again.

Matt Eberflus did such a great job coordinating the Colts defense for the past several years he got the Bears head coaching job.  Now Gus Bradley comes in and will try to keep it going.  The Colts defense has never really been built on one or two guys, it’s the collective effort of everyone.  That doesn’t mean they don’t have a couple of truly elite guys.  Up front they are built around DT DeForest Buckner.  Buckner is a giant human entering his prime and mucking up everything for opponents in the middle of the field.  He does everything well and they actually went out and got him some help.  They traded for Yannick Ngakoue to start at DE.  Ngakoue is a speed rusher on the edge and will give them a legitimate pass rusher outside.  They are hoping Kwity Paye can build on a solid rookie year at the other end but Ngakoue has a more proven track record.  Grover Stewart starts inside next to Buckner, he’s not flashy but he doesn’t need to be, he just needs to be solid.  They don’t have a lot of depth up front. 

They really only play two LBs and we will see if Bradley sticks with that plan.  Shaquille Leonard (he doesn’t go by Darius anymore), is an elite player.  He’s one of the best LBs in the NFL and he does everything exceptionally well.  He’s everywhere all at once and that’s impossible to teach.  Bobby Okereke is the other LB.  He’s really good also and doesn’t get the credit because he plays with Leonard.  If Bradley wants to use a third LB it’s probably Zaire Franklin, that’s his best choice. 

The secondary lost CB Rock Ya-Sin when they traded him for Ngakoue in the offseason which is why they signed Stephon Gilmore in free agency.  Gilmore isn’t going to be the guy he once was at this stage of his career but they need him to be solid.  Kenny Moore II is a really good corner who’s best used in the slot so they need someone else to step up outside.  They lost Khari Willis at safety to early retirement.  They drafted Nick Cross and he’s likely to start opposite Justin Blackmon but the team did sign veteran Rodney McLeod.  McLeod will add some depth and experience on the back end. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC in last year’s playoffs, and they went home quickly.  They have Derrick Henry returning, assumably at full health.  They bring back Ryan Tannehill at QB, not sure that’s a good thing.  And they traded away AJ Brown, that’s a tough loss.  Tannehill is a solid QB but the AFC is loaded with better QBs than him and it’s becoming a problem.  With Matt Ryan in Indianapolis and Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, there’s a solid chance Tannehill’s the third best QB in his own division (and Houston’s Davis Mills had his moments last year, I’m just saying).  Tannehill lost his one true weapon in the passing game when the Titans decided they didn’t want to pay AJ Brown.  They picked up Robert Woods from the Rams and they drafted Treylon Burks to be their AJ Brown replacement.  I love Treylon Burks as much as anyone but it’s going to take some time for him to ever approach being as good as Brown.  The best they can hope for is that he stays on the field more than Brown.  They picked up TE Austin Hooper, he’s fine, he’s not great.  Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a decent third WR, but they don’t have a fourth.

Derrick Henry is this offense, although they found out last year, they could still run the ball effectively with some street free agent RBs when he had a foot injury.  Not to dismiss Henry’s effectiveness but D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard were fine.  Foreman left but the team did draft Hassan Haskins from Michigan and he’s got size and speed.  The offensive line is led by LT Taylor Lewan and C Ben Jones.  Those guys have been around the block a time or two.  Nate Davis is a solid vet at RG and they are hoping Dillon Radunz can lock down the RT spot.  LG should be a competition between Aaron Brewer and Jamarco Jones although they may want Jones available at OT if needed. 

Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry are two pretty good pass rushers for guys who play DE in a 3-4 defense.  Simmons is just getting started as one of the best defensive linemen in football and Autry had a really good first year in Tennessee.  Teair Tart isn’t the biggest nose tackle around but when you’re flanked by Simmons and Autry, no one really notices. 

The pass rush is supposed to come from the OLB and while Harold Landry did his part with 12 sacks, big free agent signing Bud Dupree missed a large portion of the season (of course he did) and was underwhelming.  They don’t have any other options opposite Landry so they need Dupree to live up to his contract.  At ILB they traded for Zach Cunningham last year, he’s solid if he’s healthy but unless they rework his contract, he’s gone after this year.  David Long Jr. is a decent player who’s cheap and he’s the only other guy they have inside.  He’s not setting the world on fire but they could do worse.  If you don’t believe me, look at their depth chart. 

The secondary is led by FS Kevin Byard, he’s one of the best in the business.  He got some help last year from Amani Hooker who stepped in at SS and they can be a good tandem.  The CB spot has Kristian Fulton on one side, he had a good year and looks to build on it.  They also have Elijah Molden who can be an elite nickel corner and they drafted Roger McCreary, a guy I really like who gives them some versatility.  The wildcard is second-year man Caleb Farley.  Farley has elite measurables, can be a fantastic cover man, but simply can’t stay healthy.  He had a back issue coming out of the draft, tore his ACL early last year, and that was after sitting out his last college season during Covid.  His potential could make this secondary elite, or his question marks can make this secondary a question mark.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The team has been rescued from the Urban Meyer debacle and they have an actual NFL caliber head coach and staff running things now.  Doug Pederson comes in to give this team the professionalism it needs.  His tenure in Philly went south after his Super Bowl win and it’s not inconceivable things eventually get weird between him and GM Trent Baalke but for now, it’s good.  Trevor Lawrence is a true talent at QB and now he’ll be in a real NFL offense.  The team spent some money (some of it may have been unwisely spent) to get Lawrence some help.  Even if you don’t like Christian Kirk’s contract (and I don’t) he’s a productive WR who’s an upgrade over what they had.  They also overpaid for Zay Jones, I’m not sure that one works out.  Marvin Jones Jr. is a solid professional WR.  It would be interesting if Pederson and his staff can figure out ways to use Laquan Treadwell and Laviska Shenault Jr.  Evan Engram joins the TE group with Dan Arnold.  Engram is usually banged up but the he’s still talented. 

James Robinson is a good RB but he’s coming back from an Achilles injury.  Travis Etienne missed all of last year with a foot injury.  If these guys get back healthy, this running game could be quite good.  The offensive line has some improvements and run blocking usually comes along faster when you have new pieces, that would be good for this offense.  They re-signed Cam Robinson at LT, he’s not elite, but they clearly didn’t like their other options so he’s back.  They did spend big money on RG Brandon Scherff, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the best guards in football.  They seem to be hoping that putting Scherff next to Jawaan Taylor at RT might help Taylor develop.  He’s a big guy with athleticism, he just hasn’t put it together yet.  It looks like rookie Luke Fortner is going to take over at center pushing Tyler Shatley out to LG which should improve the line at two positions.  This offense has some real NFL talent and now a real coaching staff, they should be much improved even if they aren’t elite. 

The Jaguars’ defense is going through yet another transition and it includes some pretty big changes in the front seven.  The three-man line now consists of holdovers Roy Robertson-Harris and DaVon Hamilton joined by free agent Folorunso Fatukasi, not a bunch of household names but they can be solid up front. 

The LBs are really getting a makeover.  Josh Allen has been their best pass rusher but they have moved him around from OLB to DE and never really let him settle in.  Now he will be an OLB with #1 draft pick Travon Walker. Walker was a down lineman at Georgia but he’s an athletic freak so they are moving him outside and hoping he becomes the pass rusher they need opposite Allen (the one K’Lavon Chaisson has never become).  They drafted Devin Lloyd and he’ll immediately step in at one ILB spot while free agent Foyesade Oluokun takes the other spot.  They overpaid Oluokun (it’s a theme with this team because you have to overpay when you’re as bad as this franchise has been) but he’s an upgrade inside.  He and Lloyd should really improve the LB play of this group. 

The secondary returns largely intact.  CBs Shaquill Griffin and Tyson Campbell will be the starters outside while free agent Darious Williams takes over in the slot.  That’s a pretty good trio with some upside as Campbell gets better in his second year. Rayshawn Jenkins remains at FS while Andre Cisco should start at SS.  They still have Andrew Wingard who’s a solid third safety.  It wasn’t just Doug Pederson coming in that helps this team, it’s the coaches he hired.  Defensive Coordinator Mike Caldwell has spent a few years in Tampa learning from Todd Bowles.  They also have some good position coaches to develop the talent.  This Jaguars team could really surprise us this year but I really think it may take another season before we see major results when it comes to winning games.  This year is about development and getting better. 

Houston Texans

It’s not hard to argue that the Texans have the worst roster in the NFL.  Even if I like Davis Mills, and I actually do like Mills, he’s not saving this roster.  I think he could be a very solid NFL QB if he had legitimate NFL talent around him, it’s hard to find here.  WR Brandin Cooks is one of the most underappreciated players in the league.  All he does is catch 1000 yards almost every year, he’s done it six times and for four different teams.  He’s a legit NFL WR.  Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Chris Moore, and Phillip Dorsett are not (I’m not buying Nico Collins until he does something of note in an actual NFL game).  Hard to think it’s possible but the TE spot is worse.  I like Brevin Jordan as your second TE but not when Pharoah Brown is your #1. 

The running back depth chart is better than the TE spot but they don’t even have a Brandin Cooks level guy to lean on.  Marlon Mack was a solid back in 2018 and 2019 for Indianapolis and then he got hurt, he’s never been the same.  Rex Burkhead has run for more than 400 yards in a season once in his career, that was last year when Houston had no good backs either.  The best chance for a decent running game comes from Dameon Pierce.  He’s a power runner out of Florida but he’s never been a guy to carry the load.  At the very least, he should be their goal line guy because he can run people over. 

The offensive line has LT Laremy Tunsil, he’s highly paid and he’s good but he’s been working alone in Houston for too long and he needs some help.  They drafted Kenyon Green in round one to play LG, he’s a talent, but he’s banged up at the moment.  Justin Britt restarted his career after a knee injury almost ended it and played well enough to get an extension to be the starting center, he’s fine, he’s not great.  The right side could be an adventure.  Tytus Howard gets the RT job for now, he’s struggled there.  Max Scharping was a starter at OG but they signed veteran AJ Cann from Jacksonville.  If you’re importing 31-year-old offensive linemen from Jacksonville, you should rethink your strategy.  That said, Cann will start, he’s better than Scharping. 

If you think the offense is bad, wait until you see this defense. DE Jonathan Greenard had eight sacks last season and that makes him the star of the front seven.  He might be the only long-term piece here (and by long-term, I mean he could still be there next season).  Inside at DT they have Maliek Collins and Roy Lopez.  They are both big guys inside who take up space but that’s about it.  The team signed not one but two aging veteran DEs from Buffalo, I’m guessing so they don’t feel lonely.  Jerry Hughes is the young one, he’s almost 34, while Mario Addison already is 34.  Addison can still get to the QB a little (he had seven sacks last year) Hughes hasn’t been good at that for a while. 

The LBs are steady but unspectacular and that’s the nicest thing I can say.  MLB Christian Kirksey is a favorite of mine from his Hawkeye days but the reality is, he’s a soon-to-be 30-year-old LB who hasn’t played a full season in five years.  If they get 12 good games out of him, it’s a win. Kamu Grugier-Hill is a veteran who racked up some tackles last year because someone had to get them.  The team did draft Christian Harris in round three and they should give him as many snaps as he can handle as long as he’s healthy. 

The secondary did get an influx of talent in the draft.  CB Derek Stingley Jr steps in as the top CB and he’s got legitimate #1 CB potential for the next 7-10 years.  He’s their best defensive player immediately and everything in the secondary will be built around him.  They also drafted Jalen Pitre at safety and he gives them some nice versatility and can cover deep.  The other starters should be veteran CB Steven Nelson and either Jonathan Owens or Eric Murray at safety.  They also have Desmond King as their slot corner and he can play some outside corner or safety too.  Having Lovie Smith take over as coach after one year of David Culley doesn’t instill confidence that this team knows what it wants to do.  I think GM Nick Caserio wanted to hire Brian Flores but Flores’ lawsuit against the league ended any chance of that.  Smith could be one and done too if this team is picking first next year and they want to go a different direction, again. Best case scenario for this team is Mills proves he’s a legitimate NFL QB and they get to use a high pick on Will Anderson from Alabama or Jalen Carter from Georgia. This team needs a defensive play maker.       

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Obviously, the big news of the Bucs offseason was the signing of Russell Gage.  Well, maybe I’m underestimating the retirement and unretirement of Tom Brady and Bruce Arians stepping down as head coach.  But that Gage signing could be important.  Brady is back for another run before he heads to the Dolphins next year (I may not be kidding about that).  Anyway, the team returns a lot from last season but they need some health and they aren’t off to a great start.  With Bruce Arians stepping aside and Todd Bowles promoted to head coach, this is now unequivocally Byron Leftwich’s offense (don’t worry, Brady will still get the credit though).   

WR Chris Godwin is Brady’s favorite target but he’s coming off a knee injury and isn’t back yet.  Mike Evans remains the steady star who always gets 1000 yards receiving no matter who plays QB for the Bucs.  They signed Russell Gage to be their third WR, he’s a good slot guy who should be more reliable than Antonio Brown (and by that, I mean he won’t strip half naked and run off the field in the middle of a game).   They signed Julio Jones as a depth piece, he’s simply not the guy he once was but he can still be effective while Godwin gets back.  Kyle Rudolph joins Cameron Brate at TE as they look to replace Rob Gronkowski.  No one will have the rapport Gronk had with Brady but Rudolph is a tried-and-true veteran Brady can trust. 

Leonard Fournette was re-signed because he has Brady’s trust too.  He’s a good runner and has proven to be an excellent pass catcher.  He does everything the offense needs.  As long as he gets into shape by the start the season, he’ll dominate the running game.  The offensive line was supposed to return three starters and LT Donovan Smith and RT Tristan Wirfs are back.  However, Ryan Jensen re-signed after Brady recruited him hard to come back and now, he suffered a serious knee injury early in training camp and his season is in serious doubt.  That’s a big blow to the interior of the offensive line already replacing both guards.  They traded for Shaq Mason, he starts at RG. Unfortunately, they lost Aaron Stinnie to a knee injury too and he’s out for the year. It looks like rookie Luke Goedeke will start at LG unless the sign a veteran. Robert Hainsey steps in at center for Jensen, they could sign a veteran at center but they are giving Hainsey every chance to win the job. Wirfs isn’t completely healthy either, it’s getting a bit tough up front. The offensive line issues could derail this offense.

Todd Bowles takes over as head coach and he promoted two guys to coordinate the defense but make no mistake, he’s still running it.  Bowles is an excellent defensive mind and he’s going to have develop a few young guys to replace some important veterans.  The team didn’t re-sign Ndamukong Suh and they drafted Logan Hall at DE in round two.  Clearly, they weren’t convinced he’ll be ready right away because they signed Akiem Hicks to start with Vita Vea and William Gholston.  Vea is arguably the best nose tackle in football and Gholston is solid vet.  Hall will give them some youth but he’s basically the only depth they have. 

The team also failed to re-sign OLB Jason Pierre-Paul who is aging, wasn’t very effective last year, and had shoulder surgery after missing the end of the season.  They will turn to 2021 first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to play opposite Shaquil Barrett.  Barrett is the star pass rusher now and they also have veteran Anthony Nelson who was steady yet unspectacular last year.  Devin White and Lavonte David are probably the best ILB duo in the league and they do everything Todd Bowles wants his ILBs to do.  They are undersized guys but Bowles likes them that way and he knows exactly how to play to their strengths. 

Bowles is one of the best secondary coaches in NFL history and the way you know that is he has one elite player in this secondary and yet they are consistently one of the most effective units every year.  SS Antoine Winfield Jr. is quickly becoming one of the best safeties in the NFL and he’s the chess piece Bowles can move anywhere he needs him.  The team lost Jordan Whitehead in free agency but they signed Logan Ryan.  Ryan has moved from CB to safety in the past few years and redefined himself as a pretty good safety, a move that has successfully extended his career.  Carlton Davis III, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting make a really solid trio at CB.  They are all similar sizes with similar builds and similar playing styles so Bowles can just put them out there and let them play. 

New Orleans Saints

It feels like people are downplaying the Saints because of their QB and new coaching situation, yet plenty of people are picking them for the playoffs because the NFC isn’t exactly stacked.  It seems like them going with Jameis Winston at QB is making people doubt them and people are doubting their offense overall.  Pete Carmichael is taking over play calling duties but he’s not the “new” offensive coordinator, he has been Sean Payton’s offensive coordinator for more than a decade, he had to have picked up something in that time.  Dennis Allen is the new head coach as he moves up from defensive coordinator so Carmichael will be running the offense.

Winston went 4-2 in games he started and finished last year before his injury in game seven ended his season.  He was up and down at times but his starting WRs to begin last year were Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harris.  Those three are still around, none of them will start and there’s a chance one or two of them don’t make the roster. Michael Thomas is back to claim his #1 WR spot on the outside.  They drafted Chris Olave to give them a major playmaker and they signed Jarvis Landry to be the chain mover in the slot.  TE Adam Trautman had a nice October and November before he missed some time at the end of the year.  Also, Taysom Hill as a QB is officially dead and the team is going to try him at TE and maybe use him as a skill position weapon on offense. Winston has way more to work with now than he did to start last year. 

Alvin Kamara had a tough year last season with the offense being on his shoulders.  He had 240 rushes last year and only 47 catches.  That was almost 50 more rushes than his previous career high and about half the passes you want him catching.  Kamara is not a traditional “pound-the-rock” RB, he needs to be in space.  They didn’t have a better option so he got stuck in a bad role.  They still don’t have great options for a traditional back but Mark Ingram II is back after coming home in a trade last season.  They signed Malcolm Brown, they still have Tony Jones Jr. and I think they are ripe for picking up someone’s veteran castoff at some point.  Kamara shouldn’t get 240 rushes this season if they want to succeed. 

The offensive line returns intact after Terron Armstead missed most of last season and now he’s off to Miami.  James Hurst will likely be the starting LT to start the year unless rookie Trevor Penning can beat him out.  It’s going to be hard to do if he keeps getting kicked out of practice for fighting, someone needs to tell him these guys are on his side.  The rest of the line just needs to stay healthy.  LG Andrus Peat, C Eric McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz and RT Ryan Ramczyk are all quite talented players when they play.  Ruiz struggled at times last year but he’s still their best option at RG. 

Dennis Allen turned around the Saints defense the minute he got there and there is no reason to think they won’t be good.  He’s still relying on a few older vets but these guys can play.  Starting up front with DE Cameron Jordan going into his twelfth year, he’s a still a menace.  He’s the guy that scares everyone up front.  Marcus Davenport missed time early in the year but he finally started to show his promise after a pretty lackluster three years.  He might be the guy they thought they were getting when they traded up for him in the first round of the 2018 draft.  Shy Tuttle and David Onyemata aren’t game wreckers but they are tough in the middle and make life easier for the guys around them. 

LB Demario Davis is still the picture of consistency going into year eleven and he’s the QB of this defense.  He’s a tackling machine and makes plays everywhere.  The team really only uses two LBs because Allen uses a lot of nickel defense so Pete Werner is the other LB who plays a lot.  The team has some depth with Zack Baun and Andrew Dowell but keep an eye on D’Marco Jackson.  He’s a small-school guy who’s a little undersized but he has Demario Davis vibes.

Allen likes to have options in his secondary and he’s got lots of options in this secondary.  Marshon Lattimore can be one of the best corners in the league.  He wasn’t quite at his best last year but he still has it in him.  Paulson Adebo locked down the other starting CB spot and he was pretty good.  Allen likes five DBs and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is their nickel guy.  He’s a CB/S hybrid and he plays a lot of snaps for this team.  They needed new safeties after Marcus Williams left in free agency and Malcolm Jenkins retired.  They signed Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu as their starters.  Allen will love their versatility.  They also have plenty of backup options for Allen to choose from.  PJ Williams is still around at CB and they drafted Alontae Taylor, a very intriguing rookie. Also, they still have Bradley Roby somehow.  They signed Daniel Sorensen (I don’t know why) as depth at safety. 

Carolina Panthers

Somehow the Panthers have the #1 and #3 picks from the 2018 draft on their roster and it’s not really a good thing.  They finally pulled off the trade for Baker Mayfield once Mayfield took a pay cut and the Brown picked up most of the rest of the contract.  Now Mayfield becomes the likely starter over Sam Darnold after Darnold was pretty bad last year. This offense has a chance to be good if they get good QB play, I’m not sure if they will get good QB play.  I’ve never been a Mayfield fan but he’s better than Darnold (as long as his shoulder is okay).   

Mayfield could find this WR group to actually be better than the one he was playing with at the end of his time in Cleveland.  DJ Moore is an underutilized talent.  Somehow, Moore has never scored more than four TDs in a season, that’s an insane stat for a guy who has had over 1100 receiving yards each of the last three years.  Robbie Anderson may not have been excited to have Mayfield become his QB but maybe he should be.  Darnold has yet to be great and maybe if Mayfield is more consistent Anderson can get back to being a productive receiver.  Terrace Marshall Jr. is a talented guy who just never got going last year.  They also signed Rashard Higgins, a guy who always had a little connection to Mayfield in Cleveland.  Tommy Tremble can be a more productive TE with a more consistent QB. 

RB Christian McCaffrey is the engine to this offense.  He has essentially missed the last two seasons and they need to keep him healthy.  It would help if they don’t give him 1000 touches like they did back in 2019, I understand it’s tempting to give him the ball every play but it’s just not smart.  They do have Chuba Hubbard and now they signed D’Onta Foreman after he played so well in place of Derrick Henry in Tennessee last year.  They have to let those guys handle some of the workload. 

The offensive line was atrocious last season which is why they will likely have four new starters this year.  RT Taylor Moton is the only returning starter and that’s because he’s actually pretty good.  LT Ikem Ekwonu was their first-round pick and he’s going to be a stud, you’re going to have to give him a minute with the pass blocking, but he’ll get there.  He’ll be their first steady starter at LT in quite a while.  C Bradley Bozeman was signed from Baltimore and he should stabilize that spot.  RG Austin Corbett started for the Super Bowl winning Rams and he got a nice big contract in free agency.  The LG spot is going to have some competition.  Pat Elflein is an uninspiring veteran choice, his versatility means he can be the backup guard and center.  Brady Christiansen could win the job but I think he’s the swing tackle.  I think rookie Cade Mays will end up the best option.  He was a sixth-round pick but he’s really tough. It could be scary starting two rookies on the left side but it can’t be worse than their starters there last year. 

The Panthers’ defense wasn’t very good last year.  It’s possible it was the personnel, it’s possible it was the scheme and the coaching, and it’s possible that the offense was so bad it put the defense in terrible position.  It’s actually all of those things. The front four is led by DE Brian Burns.  He had a solid year with nine sacks but he has yet to really break out.  He has the talent; now can they unleash him.  Yetur Gross-Matos is the other starting end, he’s solid but doesn’t excel as a pass rusher so he isn’t taking much pressure off of Burns.  They need someone to help at end.  Derrick Brown is a big man on the inside they would like to see make more plays.  They signed Matt Ioannidis to be the other starting DT because Bravvion Roy and Daviyon Nixon haven’t proven to be ready. 

The LBs are a work in progress.  Shaq Thompson is the only sure thing as long as he’s healthy.  They had veteran Corey Littleton last year, he was fine but not great.  They signed Damien Wilson to play MLB. He’s generally productive but hardly inspiring.  The secondary is where the true upside resides.  CB Jaycee Horn only played in three games before he was lost for the season, he’s got true #1 CB potential.  Donte Jackson is a solid #2 CB and they are hoping their trade for former first-round pick CJ Henderson pays off and gives them a solid trio.  SS Jeremy Chinn is a unique athlete that I’m not quite sure they have figured out how to use just yet.  FS Xavier Woods is a new addition and he should be solid on the back end.  I’m not sure if this defense is holding this team back because they aren’t good or if this team is holding this defense back because they aren’t good.  We may have to wait for them to replace the coaching staff to find out. 

Atlanta Falcons

This Falcons team is pretty rough and it starts at QB.  They traded Matt Ryan and they signed Marcus Mariota to be the stopgap starter.  Mariota has been the backup for the Raiders for a couple of years and he’s not a great choice to start.  They drafted Desmond Ridder but they seem committed to Mariota, this is clearly a team looking for a high draft pick next year.  Arthur Smith has a type of receiver he likes, big.  Last year the team drafted TE Kyle Pitts, essentially a 6’6 receiver that they played outside quite a bit.  This year they drafted Drake London, a 6’4 WR with the versatility to play inside or outside so they can move him around with Pitts.  They traded for Bryan Edwards, a big 6’3 WR from the Raiders. They also signed Auden Tate, a 6’5 WR, that’s not a coincidence.  Olamide Zaccheaus is a small WR they plan to use but that will likely be because they don’t have a ton of choices, it’s not a great depth chart.

The running game looks to be in the hands of Cordarrelle Patterson again after he was the surprise last season.  He had never been a full-time RB until the Falcons had no other choices last year and he excelled at it. They have some help this year with Damian Williams and rookie Tyler Allgeier.  They aren’t great but they can play.  The offensive line has stalwart LT Jake Matthews returning.  C Matt Hennessey also returns to start.  They desperately need the other three spots to get healthy.  RG Chris Lindstrom and RT Kaleb McGary simply haven’t stayed healthy enough to show their talent and they are running out of time.  Both were first-round picks in 2019 and they are quickly approaching the end of their rookie contracts, it’s now or never to prove they are worth keeping around.  LG Jalen Mayfield is fighting a back issue with Bears’ castoff Elijah Wilkinson set to replace him.  If you’re playing a guy the Bears let walk, you should reconsider your life’s direction. 

As bad as I think the Atlanta offense might be, the defense is going to be worse.  Up front they have Grady Jarrett, and while he’s pretty good, they have very little else.  Marlon Davidson has some talent but he simply doesn’t play enough.  Ta’Quon Graham is young guy trying to figure it out and while Anthony Rush looks the part of a nose tackle, he’s bounced around a lot for a reason.  It’s going to be a long year for Jarrett. 

The LB corps is better but still not great.  They have some solid pros but not a lot of playmakers.  Deion Jones should be one ILB as long as he’s healthy.  They signed Rashaad Evans from Tennessee to give them a solid guy inside next to Jones.  Evans isn’t a game breaker but he’s consistent.  They also drafted Troy Andersen, a small-school guy with some upside.  At OLB, they signed Lorenzo Carter from the Giants.  He’s solid but he doesn’t set the world on fire as a pass rusher.  They drafted Arnold Ebiketie and while he might take a minute to adjust to the NFL, he has high upside as a pass rusher, certainly more than anyone else on this roster. 

The secondary has some talent at the CB position. AJ Terrell developed into a top-notch cover guy last season and they added Casey Hayward in free agency.  Hayward is getting older but he’s been pretty consistent over the last several years which is more than can be said for Isaiah Oliver, their other CB.  Richie Grant, Dean Marlowe, Jaylinn Hawkins, Erik Harris is an underwhelming group at safety but there is competition.  If Grant and Hawkins can play up to their potential, the secondary could be the strength of the defense.  It’s a low bar but you have to start somewhere.