2023 NFL Mock Draft-Final Version 2.0

2023 NFL Mock Draft-Final One 2.0

So, I had this mock draft all done, all I had to do was finish the editing and post it. Then the Jets and Packers decided to get their shit together and actually make the Rodgers trade. I had a trade in mind for it but the Jets gave up WAY more than I thought they would for Rodgers. So here is my Final Mock Draft…the 2.0 version of the final draft.

I really don’t like this draft class. It’s full of outliers who are really small like Bryce Young at QB, Nolan Smith as an edge rusher, almost all of the WRs, safety/nickel corner Brian Branch and Peter Skoronski’s arms. Or guys who are simply limited where they play; Darnell Wright and Dawand Jones are right tackles only, the LB group isn’t overly versatile outside maybe Drew Sanders and the WRs are mostly slot guys (yes, that’s two shots at the WR class). There are also positions that are limited; the defensive tackle group is Jalen Carter and not much else towards the top, the safety group is Brian Branch and then wait until round three if you’re smart, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are difference makers at RB but then there’s a group of about 5-7 guys you could choose from. There are four QBs, Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, and CBs Christian Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon, that teams might actually want to draft, after those eight no one really inspires confidence (and confidence in Anthony Richardson and Will Levis at QB could be problematic).

The general consensus right now is that the Carolina Panthers are settling in on Bryce Young at #1 overall, I just can’t get there. I smell a smoke screen. I think they are hyping up their interest in Young to get Houston to make an offer to move up from #2 to #1 and so far, Houston isn’t biting. I’m sure they don’t believe Carolina right now either. It gets weird if Young goes first and Houston passes on a QB at #2 so I have a solution for that, let’s get to it.

(Just a quick note, I went a little trade crazy with this mock, it just seemed to make more sense that way.)

1. Houston Texans (TRADE with Carolina): Bryce Young QB Alabama

Houston bites the bullet and Carolina doesn’t get overly greedy and they find a solution where Houston gives up a less than premium pick to move up one spot and Carolina will still get their QB at #2. The Texans are said to be sold on Young and Young alone at QB and considering the culture change they are trying to pull off, that’s understandable. Young is a great teammate and he has talent but I struggle with taking him as my franchise QB. His size scares me, not that he can’t play at his size but that he just won’t last. If you take a QB at #1 you want him to be your guy for 10-12 years at least, I’m not sure Young sees year six. Smaller QBs are outliers and Young is the smallest of the small. The NFL protects QBs as much as possible but they still get hit and the hits will add up faster on him than on others. If he helps DeMeco Ryans set a new culture in Houston moving forward, then maybe he’s worth it even if they are looking for a new QB in five years. It feels awfully risky.

2. Carolina Panthers (TRADE with Houston): CJ Stroud QB Ohio St.

I may be completely wrong and Carolina may actually love Young so much they just take him first but he just doesn’t feel like a Frank Reich type of QB. On the other hand, Stroud is straight off the Reich assembly line. He’s a big, strong pocket passer with elite throwing mechanics and impeccable accuracy. Putting him in Carolina behind and pretty solid offensive line with some veteran WRs like Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, Stroud could do some damage. He has mobility no one seems to want to give him credit for and he can adjust his game to do what is necessary. Everyone points to the Georgia game where he showed off his running ability but also watch the Northwestern game last year when they were playing against 70 mph winds all day. He made the offense work when throwing the ball was almost impossible. I think Stroud would be very good, very quickly in Carolina and that is what the owner wants.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): Will Anderson Edge Alabama

The Cardinals should be fielding every call waiting for the best offer from a team looking to move up for a QB. They need players, many, many new players. They are essentially going to punt this season because Kyler Murray will not play for a lot of it coming off a torn ACL. If they can’t get a solid package of picks, taking Will Anderson is a good consolation prize. They desperately need an edge rusher and Anderson is the best in the draft. New head coach Jonathan Gannon is coming over from Philly where he had Hassan Reddick. Reddick isn’t a traditional DE or a traditional pass rushing OLB. Anderson can fit a similar profile, Gannon can find the most effective ways to use him, and he’s would be a foundational piece to build the defense around.

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1): Anthony Richardson QB Florida

This draft is a crapshoot and if the Colts don’t make a major move for Lamar Jackson before the draft, then the likelihood is they will draft a QB. Richardson isn’t a total project but he’s got some work to do. He gets what he’s supposed to do with the football he just can’t always pull it off. New Colts coach Shane Steichen had Jalen Hurts for the last two years and he made him a much better passer and Philly got to the Super Bowl. Richardson wouldn’t have AJ Brown and Devonta Smith to throw to but Michael Pittman Jr is a solid start at WR and with a new coach and Richardson, the expectations for the Colts would be low. Richardson should be able to make an offense effective simply by being a great athlete, if Steichen can harness all his potential, he can be an elite QB in the NFL.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Jalen Carter DT Georgia

The character concerns with Carter are the only thing that could stop him from being a top five pick. He’s simply too good of a player and a unique talent to drop unless teams think he can’t mature and become a better version of himself. The criminal case against him from a fatal auto accident earlier this year has been settled with a plea bargain and he faces no jail time. If he has convinced teams it was an isolated incident, that he sincerely regrets his actions, and it won’t happen again, he’s fine, if not, he could tumble down the board. Carter is far and away the best DT in this draft and he has the scheme versatility to fit any style. The Seahawks could really remake their d-line with Carter and free agent Dre’Mont Jones up front. I don’t think Pete Carroll and John Schneider will be scared off by Carter’s issues, they will take the chance on him.

6. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams): Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon

The Lions are in a great position here because they can go in a lot of directions but they don’t have to fill any specific needs. This pick is from the Matthew Stafford trade and they can get a real difference maker here. Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon are the top two CBs and while it has been said that the Lions like Witherspoon a lot, I have Gonzalez here. The Lions signed Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton in free agency and they also have Jerry Jacobs at CB and one thing those guys all have in common, they are under 6’0 tall. Witherspoon measured in at 6’0 exactly but he’s under 190 lbs. which makes him a very slim CB. Gonzalez is 6’2 and has size, length, and athleticism and I think the Lions would be better off supplementing their shorter CBs with a guy who can matchup with some of the bigger, taller WRs in the league.

7. Tennessee Titans (TRADE with Las Vegas): Will Levis QB Kentucky

The Raiders could take Levis if they really like him but Josh McDaniels knows he has to win now and a first-round QB isn’t helping that cause. McDaniels is going to war with Jimmy G at QB and he needs multiple picks to help fix his o-line and defense, he trades down and gets extra picks. The Titans have Ryan Tannehill making a boatload of money and they could save half of his salary off the cap by cutting him. They can reset their cap and their timetable with a rookie QB and Levis might be just the guy to convince Mike Vrabel to go with a rookie QB. Vrabel is an old-school football guy and Levis is the same type. Tennessee needs a reset and Levis could be the key. If they drop Tannehill, they could also drop Derrick Henry and really reset or they can afford to keep Henry for the year and let him carry the offense while the rookie QB figures it out. They may be some other teams looking to trade up here but Tennessee would give them a solid return and the Raiders would only have to drop down to 11^th overall, they still get a good player.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech

The Falcons need help on the front line which is why they signed Calais Campbell and David Onyemata. However, Campbell will be 37 next season and Onyemata is 30. Grady Jarrett, their best holdover up front will also be 30 and their backups leave a lot to be desired. Wilson is a long, angular pass rusher with size and leverage and the versatility to play multiple fronts which makes he a great match with these guys. He can spend the year learning from Campbell and Jarrett on the outside and being a subpackage guy and eventually take over as a starter. He can learn a lot from those two and give them the rest they need as a rotational guy so they stay fresh. The Falcons have addressed other needs like the secondary with the Jeff Okudah trade and signing Jessie Bates III. They signed LBs like Kaden Ellis and Bud Dupree but they still need help up front if they want their defense to be better, and they need their defense to be better. This is also the first spot where RB Bijan Robinson becomes an actual possibility, they could use a playmaker at RB, Robinson is a stud.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (TRADE with Chicago): Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio St.

It may seem strange for the Bears to trade out of this spot to allow the Steelers to move up and take an OT the Bears could use but the Steelers need help on the offensive line if they want to protect Kenny Pickett and give him any chance to succeed at QB. Dan Moore just isn’t cutting it and while they have spent money on interior offensive linemen in free agency the last couple of years, they are still pretty bad at OT. Johnson is generally considered the top LT prospect in the draft, but there is no actual consensus. I don’t think Johnson is going to be some regular Pro Bowl type of player, but he’s a legitimate NFL starter for the next decade and that puts him light years ahead of what they have now. The Bears may try to extract a premium pick for moving down so far.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Lukas Van Ness DL Iowa

The Eagles have one of the better rosters in the league but they have some aging players and GM Howie Roseman loves linemen. He could take an OT to hedge against Lane Johnson’s age but the defensive line is a more pressing need. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are aging players and Derek Barnett is coming off an ACL injury. Josh Sweat could use some help off the edge and Van Ness can be that guy without the pressure of having to be the guy. Van Ness can also play inside with Cox on passing downs or give him some rest and play next to Jordan Davis on running downs. Van Ness needs to learn some pass rushing moves and the Eagles have the veterans and coaching to get the best out of him.

11. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Tennessee): Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois

The Raiders have to fix the right side of their offensive line and they have to fix their secondary. If they move down and still end up getting Witherspoon here, that’s a gigantic win. In a division that has Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Sean Payton (see what I did there), they have to get better on the back end. Witherspoon has a shot to be a top 10 pick but I’m just not finding a spot for him. It’s completely possible he goes to Detroit at six and Gonzalez falls here. Witherspoon isn’t the biggest CB out there but don’t tell him that. He plays with the recklessness and intensity of a guy 20 lbs. bigger. He can set the tone for the Raiders underwhelming secondary, they could use some of that.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Myles Murphy DE Clemson

Their edge players are a little rough at the moment, Jerry Hughes will be 35 next season, Jonathan Greenard missed half of last year with an injury, and they signed Chase Winovich in free agency, he has 12 whole sacks in his four-year career. Murphy isn’t a finished product, he’s only 21 years old, but he’s 6’5 270 lbs. and a really good athlete. He needs to work on finishing his pass rush and getting the QB down but that is something Jerry Hughes has been good at for a long time and he could teach him a few things. The Texans aren’t looking to be great next season, they just want to take a step forward, they can wait for Murphy to get better.

13. Green Bay Packers (from NY Jets): Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio St.

It would be fitting for the Packers to finally trade Aaron Rodgers and then promptly draft a WR in round one. One has nothing to do with the other except for the fact that without Rodgers to elevate the play of the WRs on the team, the Packers need better WRs to elevate Jordan Love at QB. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are a solid duo on the outside but this team needs a legit slot receiver who can make Love’s job easier. Smith-Njigba is almost exclusively a slot guy and that’s fine because he’s excellent at it. He has the change of direction skills and route running mastery to be a devastating inside receiver. Smith-Njigba doesn’t win on the outside because he lacks speed and he’s not an overwhelming athlete, but he gets how to set his defender up and roast him inside. The Packers could take a TE here but Smith-Njigba is the best WR in this draft and he’s too perfect of a fit for what they need.

14. New England Patriots (8-9): Deonte Banks CB Maryland

My sincere hope is that the Patriots don’t draft a WR here, I just don’t like anyone outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and he’s gone and they don’t need another slot receiver who can’t help them outside anyway. Also, Belichick is a WR jinx, if he drafts Quentin Johnston I’ll throw up. I would love for them to draft Broderick Jones at OT, he’s my favorite OT in the draft. However, they have Trent Brown, they re-signed Yodny Cajuste and Conor McDermott, and brought in Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson, that’s a lot of bodies at tackle. At CB, they re-signed Jonathan Jones to a two-year deal but he’s going to be 30. They drafted Marcus Jones and Jack Jones last year and Jack is already in Belichick’s doghouse. Marcus should replace Myles Bryant as the nickel corner after Bryant had a rough year. Also, all of these guys are short, smaller CBs. Banks is 6’1 and over 200 lbs. so he would give them a bigger CB to match up on some of the bigger WRs in the league. He has scheme versatility so he can play however the Patriots want to line up in coverage. He would allow Jonathan Jones to take on the smaller, shiftier WRs and not have to be the CB1. Banks has been moving up the board after missing a lot of last season with an injury.

15. New York Jets (from Green Bay): Broderick Jones OT Georgia

The Jets move down two spots but finally get their QB in Aaron Rodgers. They picked up some pieces at WR to go with Garrett Wilson (Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb should be along shortly). If they want Rodgers at his best, they need to give him better protection up front and it’s hard to rely on Mekhi Becton and Duane Brown. Becton has been injury prone and Brown is 38 years old. Broderick Jones has started for Georgia’s back-to-back national championship teams, and while he’s still a little raw, he’s got everything you want in a LT. He is probably the most physically gifted tackle in this draft and this one hurts me because he’s my favorite tackle and I wish the Patriots would draft him, instead he goes to their hated rival.

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1): Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn St.

The Commanders are on their way to a total reset as they are in the process of being sold. Once Josh Harris and his group take charge things could change dramatically. The franchise needs new blood and that could mean a new GM, head coach, and almost certainly a new QB, but that won’t happen in 2023 so here we go. This team has players to build around; a really good d-line, some new blood on the offensive line, a good WR group, and a good RB. They aren’t in a position to get a new QB so it’s Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett this year. One place they have to address for this year and moving forward is CB. Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste, and Cam Dantzler aren’t scaring anyone. Porter Jr is the son of former Steelers great Joey Porter and he is a big, physical CB, with long arms and bloodlines to play in the NFL for a long time. This defense could be good if they get better play in the secondary and Porter gets them moving in that direction.

17. Chicago Bears (TRADE with Pittsburgh): Darnell Wright OT Tennessee

The Bears drafted Braxton Jones last year and gave him the LT spot, he had his issues, but he showed enough that I think they stick with him on the left side. They have options at RT, Teven Jenkins, Larry Borom, and even Alex Leatherwood, but none of them have proven to be great options. Wright is seen as a RT only prospect but he’s going to be a hell of a RT. He’s big, powerful, and he would lock down the position for the next 7-10 years at a high level. Fixing the o-line should be a priority and Wright would do that as he would allow Jenkins and Borom to compete at OG or become trade bait. If the Bears aren’t convinced Braxton Jones is truly a LT and want to move him to the right side, they could draft Peter Skoronski and let him try to win the LT job instead.

18. Detroit Lions (9-8): Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame

The Lions got their CB with the sixth pick, now they fill the only real hole on the offense (unless you count QB, and they don’t count QB). They traded TJ Hockenson last year because they didn’t want to have to pay him next year as a free agent. Dan Campbell is the type of coach to like a guy who isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty and that’s Mayer. Dalton Kincaid is the more productive pass catcher but Mayer is the all-around guy. He can run routes and he’s a contested catch monster, but he’s also not afraid to stick his nose in for a block. He’s not the devastating blocker some would have you believe (despite the nickname, he’s not baby Gronk), but he is a functional and willing blocker. He can be a major red zone weapon for Jared Goff and he would complement Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, just as soon as Williams gets back from his gambling suspension. Mayer feels like a Dan Campbell player.

19. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE with Tampa Bay): Bijan Robinson RB Texas

Trading up for a RB seems like a weird thing to do but the Chargers are in a unique position. The team is built to compete now; however, Austin Ekeler (their most effective playmaker) wants a new contract but they don’t want to pay him. They have a gigantic Justin Herbert extension on the horizon and paying a RB would not be wise. Robinson is the ultimate Ekeler replacement. He’s the all-everything back Ekeler is except he’s bigger and more athletic. The Chargers pay the price in draft capital to move up a few spots because other teams may be ready to pounce if they don’t. There is a lot of talk in the NFL about resetting your QB spot with a rookie QB contract and while the savings isn’t as much, paying a rookie RB at this spot is a whole lot cheaper than paying Ekeler his market value. Robinson is the total package at RB and he would be a fantastic addition as Herbert’s backfield partner for the next five years.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE with Seattle): Dalton Kincaid TE Utah

The Jaguars have Evan Engram at TE but he’s the only real TE they have and he’s on a one-year deal. Also, their WR group has quite a few small guys and the only taller WR is Zay Jones and he doesn’t play like a big guy. Engram could be even more deadly if he had a two-TE set with Dalton Kincaid as the other TE. Kincaid is really just a big WR, he’s not a blocker, he’s a pass catcher. He can line up at different positions inside or out and he would be a deadly weapon down the seam for Trevor Lawrence. Adding him to Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram would give Lawrence a real chance to shine.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TRADE with LA Chargers): Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern

The Buccaneers cut Donovan Smith for salary cap purposes and now they are need of another tackle. The thought has been that they might move RT Tristan Wirfs to LT and find a new guy on the right side. If Skoronski is still here, they could draft him and see where he works best for them. He could compete at LT or he could end up being a good guard replacement after they traded Shaq Mason in the off season. Either way, Skoronski is an immediate starter somewhere (it could even be RT with Wirfs still moving to the left side) and he’s great value here. The Buccaneers are in a weird place, they have Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at QB but they aren’t in a position to get a replacement. Taking Hendon Hooker is possible but it seems unlikely.

22. Baltimore Ravens (10-7): Nolan Smith OLB Georgia

Assuming the Ravens get the Lamar Jackson situation handled they can move forward trying to be a contender in the AFC. They are trying to address their WR situation with signing Odell Beckham Jr and Nelson Agholor to go with a healthy Rashod Bateman, that’s the best WR corps they have had in Jackson’s career. On the defensive side of the ball, they have lost several edge players; Calais Campbell, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Justin Houston. All of those guys are aging so it makes sense to pivot. Nolan Smith is a very athletic edge player they can use in a lot of different ways and he gives them some extra pass rushing to go with Tyus Bowser, Odafe Oweh and they hope David Ojabo. If one of the top CBs falls here, they should jump on them but for now they can wait until day two to grab a CB.

23. Minnesota Vikings (13-4): Drew Sanders LB Arkansas

Generally, it seems like the Vikings need a CB or a WR here but I just don’t see the value here. They don’t need a small WR who plays the slot, they already have KJ Osborn, Jalen Reagor, and Justin Jefferson can play inside too. Quentin Johnston doesn’t feel like the big WR fit here. They can wait on CB because the value is in rounds 2-4. Drew Sanders played LB at Arkansas last year after being an edge rusher at Alabama previously. That makes for an interesting set of skills in a guy who is 6’5 235 lbs. and very athletic. That’s exactly the type of guy I think new defensive coordinator Brian Flores would love to work with. Flores came up under Bill Belichick who loves big LBs who do a lot of different things in their defense. Sanders could step in immediately at ILB and be used in a pass rusher role when appropriate.

24. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE with Jacksonville): Steve Avila C/G TCU

Well, there always has to be that one guy who gets drafted in round one that no one is talking about as first round guy and the Seahawks are a good bet to be the team that takes that guy. They need interior offensive line help and while Avila isn’t the first name people usually talk about at guard or center, he’s a really good player. He played guard this last year but he actually has more starts at center in his career. The Seahawks need a new center and Avila is the type of big, mauling player they love inside. He’s 6’4 and over 330 lbs. and he’s not exactly a smooth mover but on the inside, he is a dominant force. Once he locks on, the play is over. If the Seahawks plan to rely on the run game and not ask too much of Geno Smith, Avila would be a massive upgrade at either center or RG. My guess is he’s their starting center in week one.

25. New York Giants (9-7-1): John Michael Schmitz C Minnesota

The Giants need help at WR and CB but the value really isn’t there right now. So many of the WRs are the smaller, shifty guys; Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jalin Hyatt, or Josh Downs, they already have that covered, and then some. They could go with Kelee Ringo or Cam Smith at CB but there is good depth there too. Building up the line in front of Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley isn’t a sexy thing to do but it’s probably the right thing to do. They have their tackles but the inside of the line is a problem. Ben Bredeson is penciled in at center with either Joshua Ezeudu or Shane Lemieux at LG, that’s not ideal. Schmitz is a beast at center, he has years of experience, and he’s an immediate starter. He makes life easier on Jones because he won’t be overwhelmed with playing center and he’ll open running lanes for Barkley. He also creates competition by kicking Bredeson back out to compete at guard.

26. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Brian Branch S Alabama

The Cowboys have addressed some of their needs in free agency with re-signing guys or trading for WR Brandin Cooks and CB Stephon Gilmore. They could look to address the interior of the offensive line, especially the center position. If Steve Avila or John Michael Schmitz make it this far, those would be smart additions. Since they don’t make it in this mock draft, and Drew Sanders (a Cowboys mock draft favorite) is also gone, I’m going with Branch. He’s not your typical safety prospect, he’s probably best as a nickel corner but he has versatility. The Cowboys have Jourdan Lewis coming off an injury and DaRon Bland played well last year but Branch is an upgrade. Also, their safety spots aren’t settled long-term so Branch could be used there. Dan Quinn is an excellent defensive mind and he would find smart ways to deploy a guy like Branch.

27. Buffalo Bills (13-3): Jordan Addison WR USC

The Bills are trying to make sure the offense is stacked for Josh Allen which is why they went after Odell Beckham Jr and other WRs in the off season. Stefon Diggs is a true #1 WR and they still like Gabe Davis at this point, but they let Isaiah McKenzie walk in free agency and Cole Beasley should retire again and stay that way. They have Khalil Shakir but if they really trusted Shakir to be the slot guy they probably wouldn’t have dusted off Beasley last season when McKenzie wasn’t working out. Addison is undersized and he can play in the slot to start his career, it’s probably best for him. Addison does have the potential to be even more, if he reaches his full potential, he could actually be a Diggs-like WR. Diggs is an undersized guy who is a true WR1. Diggs will also turn 30 this next season and he’s been complaining about his contract. They could go for a RB but the only RB worth taking here is Jahmyr Gibbs and he’s redundant with James Cook and Naheim Hines on the roster.

28. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4): Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama

There has been a lot of smoke coming from Cincinnati about moving on from Joe Mixon. He’s been a big part of the offense but the team can’t pay all their offensive stars and Mixon comes in behind Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins for sure and they would probably rather spend money to keep Tyler Boyd over paying a RB too much. Gibbs is a good all-around back who can excel in the pass game, gives them plenty in the run game and will come quite cheap for the next five years as a late first-round player. If they get Gibbs here, they may look to deal Mixon for a late draft pick just to see if they can get any value from him instead of cutting him. The popular mock draft pick is a TE but they can get a very good TE on day two.

29. New Orleans (from Denver/Mia/SF): Bryan Bresee DT Clemson

The Saints have this pick from trading Sean Payton to the Broncos. They should be looking at best player available and that might just be Bresee. They signed Khalen Saunders and Nathan Sheppard at DT to replace guys they lost in free agency but neither of those two has ever been great. Bresee has the potential to be a beast up front. He had a tough year personally this last year at Clemson and it clearly affected his play but he’s a talented guy. The Saints could look to an edge player if they like Derick Hall or Keion White more than Bresee but they need help on the defensive line and they have to hope former first rounder Payton Turner can give them something at DE. They could go WR but as I’ve said before, the value isn’t there right now.

30. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3): Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi St.

The consensus is the top four CBs are Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, Deonte Banks, and Joey Porter Jr, there is no consensus on the fifth CB. Forbes is a playmaking machine, he gets interceptions at a high rate and he had three pick sixes this last season, he knows what to do once he has them. The knock on Forbes is he is super skinny. He’s 6’1 and came in at 166 lbs. at the combine, that’s incredibly thin. Keep in mind the Eagles are the team that drafted Devonta Smith in the top 10 and he was super skinny and he’s been just fine. Forbes will have the opportunity in Philly to try to fill out a bit before he’s thrown in the fire. Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddux are established as the top three CBs. Forbes is never going to be a big CB, but he doesn’t let that stop him. He plays with the confidence you want in a CB and while he’s really light, he’s never let that stop him from coming up to tackle a guy.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3): Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma

The Chiefs let both Orlando Brown Jr and Andrew Wylie, their starting OTs last year, walk in free agency. They signed Jawaan Taylor to be their LT after he started his entire career in Jacksonville at RT. I’m not totally convinced Taylor is a LT and Harrison would be a hedge against that. Harrison has moved up into the fifth OT spot on the board and tackles get moved up the draft board regularly. He has the physical tools and the length and athleticism of a LT. Harrison has some work to do on his technique but with Andy Reid and offensive line coach Andy Heck around to develop him, he could be the best OT out of this class. The Chiefs need to protect Patrick Mahomes and relying on Lucas Niang to finally step up as a starting tackle would be a foolish mistake.

Round 2

32. Chicago: Will McDonald IV Edge Iowa St.

I think if Pittsburgh wants to move up to get the Bears 9^th pick, the Bears are going to insist on getting this pick back after they traded it for Chase Claypool. With an OT on board, they look to the defensive side. They need pass rushers badly. McDonald is small but he’s fast off the edge with a killer spin move.

33. Houston: Keion White DL Georgia Tech

Houston needs help on defense and DeMeco Ryans comes from San Francisco where they built their defense around their elite line. They could easily double up with White joining Myles Murphy on the edge. White also has the versatility to kick inside when needed and Ryans will like that.

34. Arizona: Cam Smith CB South Carolina

Marco Wilson, Rashad Fenton, Antonio Hamilton Sr, Nate Hairston, Christian Matthew; those are the top five CBs on the Cardinals roster. Cam Smith would be the CB1 from day one and they shouldn’t stop with him. Smith gets a bit handsy and could be a penalty monster in the NFL but hopefully Jonathan Gannon and his defensive staff can coach that out of him.

35. Indianapolis: Kelee Ringo CB Georgia

The Colts best CB is Kenny Moore and he’s a slot guy. They need outside CBs badly. Gus Bradley has evolved to use a cover-3 scheme and Ringo fits that style. Ringo is a fantastic athlete with elite size but doesn’t change direction well. The Colts defense would allow him to do what he does well and they get a big CB who can match up with big, physical WRs.

36. Los Angeles Rams (5-12): Adetomiwa Adebawore DL Northwestern

The Rams were a mess last season. The offense could at least be functional if they get guys healthy. Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are the biggest names they need back but their offensive line was a total disaster and they need them all back. That said, at least the offense has guys if they are healthy. The defense is Aaron Donald and ten guys you’re never heard of. Their pass rush is non-existent and they have to start somewhere. Adebawore is a unique player who is shorter and lighter than you expect out of a guy who lined up inside a lot but also doesn’t really have the length like a DE prospect should. However, he’s extremely effective as a pass rusher and gives you everything he’s got. If anyone knows how to use a small interior rusher, it’s the Rams. To be clear, nothing is off the table. Stafford is 35 and coming off a missed season due to a serious injury, Cooper Kupp will be 30 next year and also coming off an injury, and Aaron Donald could retire any time. Kupp and Donald also simply need more help at the positions they play. The Rams won a Super Bowl by going all-in, this roster is the price they are paying for it.

37. Seattle: Zay Flowers WR Boston College

Many people think Flowers will be first round pick, maybe he will, but he falls here. The Seahawks have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at WR and not much else. Flowers would be an instant starter in the slot and give them a guy to mix and match with Lockett because Flowers can move outside when needed.

38. Las Vegas: Dawand Jones OT Ohio St.

After getting a much-needed CB in round one the Raiders can address their offensive line in round two. Jones is a RT only player but they have Kolten Miller at LT and they desperately need a legitimate RT. Jones comes in as one of the biggest players in the league, and he’s actually pretty good.

39. Carolina: BJ Ojulari OLB LSU

Ojulari is an undersized pass rusher who would be best used rushing from space. New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will likely be using a 3-4 defense and he needs someone to take some pressure off of Brian Burns. Ojulari isn’t a finished product but he’s got potential.

40. New Orleans: Quentin Johnston WR TCU

This would seem like a fall for Johnston but this is where he should go. He’s a big-bodied WR who doesn’t play to his size with the ball in the air. He’s a monster once he has it but he isn’t the contested catch guy you want. He could learn some tricks of the trade from Michael Thomas while complementing Thomas and Chris Olave, assuming Thomas plays.

41. Tennessee: Darnell Washington TE Georgia

This is a team that likes to run the ball and here they get the best blocking TE in the draft. Washington’s blocking has been so hyped up it might be a little overkill but he’s really good. He also has the possibility of becoming a much more useful pass catcher without Brock Bowers sucking up all the TE targets. A rookie QB would like a target Washington’s size.

42. Green Bay: Luke Musgrave TE Oregon St.

Brian Gutekunst uses the Packers second straight pick on another pass catcher and it’s another one he gets for Aaron Rodgers (that’s like two thumbs up to Rodgers on his way out the door except those aren’t thumbs). Musgrave is a 6’6 253 lbs. freak athlete who needs to stay healthy. If he does, he’s a great pick up for a first year QB like Jordan Love, the ultimate safety valve.

43. New York Jets: Joe Tippmann C Wisconsin

One offensive lineman is not enough. They need center help as much as they need OT help unless they really think Wes Schweitzer can handle it (he’s better as the backup interior guy). Tippman would solidify the line in front of Rodgers and give the offense a chance.

44. Atlanta: Calijah Kancey DL Pittsburgh

The Falcons pass rush has been bad for quite some time and this is just taking a shot on a guy who can add some juice there. Kancey is an extreme outlier because he’s such a small DT with short arms. He needs to be used in specific ways and Atlanta is so desperate for pass rush help maybe they can find creative ways to use him with big DEs like Calais Campbell and first rounder Tyree Wilson.

45. Green Bay: Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas St.

Preston Smith will be 31 this year and Rashan Gary is heading towards free agency next year. They don’t have much else at pass rusher. Anudike-Uzomah is the best pass rusher left on the board. He’s one of the most natural edge rushers in the class and he paired it with actually being productive in his college career (19.5 sacks in the last two years).

46. New England: Jack Campbell LB Iowa

There is no one who loves a big ass LB with questionable coverage skills like Bill Belichick. Campbell’s not terrible in coverage it’s just not where he excels. Coming downhill, running down the play is him at his best, Belichick will love this guy. As a Patriots fan, anyone replacing Bentley at ILB would be great. I would love to see them consider taking WR Cedric Tillman here, they need a true X receiver, DeVante Parker has been impersonating one for years.

47. Washington: Tucker Craft TE South Dakota St.

The fifth TE off the board is a fight between Tucker Craft and Sam LaPorta and I’m giving Washington Craft because he’s slightly bigger and I think he fits their profile to replace Logan Thomas eventually. Craft will take a minute to adjust from playing at the FCS level to the NFL but the Commanders aren’t poised to be all that competitive with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at QB.

48. Detroit: Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee

Detroit waits around and Hooker falls in their lap. I think the talk around Hooker in round one is just noise. He’s already 25 years old and he’s coming off an ACL injury. He will need this next year to rehab and get used to an NFL offense. The Lions have Jared Goff, they can wait.

49. Houston: Trenton Simpson LB Clemson

The Texans have some aging LBs and DeMeco Ryans knows the value of a great LB. For one, he was one when he played, and he witnessed numerous ones during his time coaching the 49ers, including Fred Warner. Simpson is a very good coverage LB which is where Warner separates himself too. Simpson isn’t Warner but I’m sure Ryan can find useful ways to use him.

50. Tampa Bay: Sam LaPorta TE Iowa

They still have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage at WR but their top TEs are Cade Otten and Ko Kieft, not ideal. LaPorta would give them a weapon they can use down the seam and he can block. He helps whichever terrible QB they pick to start to be a little less terrible.

51. Miami Dolphins (9-8): Cody Mauch C/G North Dakota St.

The Dolphins have spent money on the offensive line (Terron Armstead, Connor Williams) and many draft picks (Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt) and yet their line still leaves a lot to be desired. Mauch was a LT at North Dakota St. but he lacks the length to play tackle in the NFL and will move inside. He worked at both guard and center at the Senior Bowl and held up just fine. He isn’t the biggest or most powerful player but he’s athletic and agile which is perfect for the Dolphins offense. He should come in and work at guard and he can challenge Eichenberg and Hunt but it’s also possible he gets a shot at center and they move Connor Williams to guard. Either way, he’s an upgrade and a great fit for the Dolphins.

52. Seattle: O’Cyrus Torrence OG Florida

Seattle could really set up their offensive line for long-term success if they get Avila to play center and Torrence to play guard. Added to second-year OTs Charles Cross and Abe Lucas and their “grizzled veteran” fourth-year guard Damien Lewis, that’s a good starting five. Torrence shouldn’t fall this far but guards have to fit or have versatility for teams to really take them higher, Torrence is only a guard. He’s a road grader that Ken Walker will love to run behind.

53. Chicago: Julius Brents CB Kansas St.

Ryan Poles proved last year he’ll go for the guys he likes regardless of need and even though he drafted defensive backs last year, he could do it again. Jaylon Johnson could be headed towards free agency and the Bears have a bunch of smaller CBs. Brents is legitimately 6’3 and could be a great addition on the outside.

54. Los Angeles Chargers: Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee

Even after moving up for Bijan Robinson in round one, they should double down on offense and take Hyatt. I mocked him a few times in round one to the Chargers because he just makes sense. They have the two big, tough WRs, they need the speed guy. Hyatt is all speed. He needs a team that can make use of what he does exceptionally well, go deep, and can let him develop the rest of his game over the next few years. It’s a perfect match and Justin Herbert has the arm to use him.

55. Detroit: Matt Bergeron OL Syracuse

Surprisingly Detroit’s roster is in a place where they aren’t looking to fill a ton of holes. If they get a CB and TE early, they can look for value. Bergeron played LT at Syracuse and can develop into one if needed but he could also slide inside. They had some injuries at RG last year and Jonah Jackson is heading towards free agency at LG. Bergeron is a pick for depth now and development moving forward.

56. Jacksonville: DJ Turner CB Michigan

The Jaguars cut Shaq Griffin and they could use an outside CB to start opposite Tyson Campbell so Darious Williams can be the nickel corner and Tre Herndon is a bench guy. Turner is a speed demon and he could step in right away.

57. New York Giants: Kyu Blu Kelly CB Stanford

The Giants need some size at CB, they have entirely too many CBs under 6’0. Adoree’ Jackson, Darnay Holmes, and Aaron Robinson, and of those three only Jackson can really play outside. Kelly has played a lot of games at Stanford and even though he has had struggles at times, he has the size, athleticism, and experience worth betting on.

58. Dallas: Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA

Dallas finally cut the cord on Ezekiel Elliott after they franchise tagged Tony Pollard. Pollard is coming off an injury and really isn’t the guy you want running head first into a wall trying to break through, that was Zeke’s job. Charbonnet can be that guy now. He’s a big back who isn’t flashy he’s just effective. He can take the beating so Pollard can be the homerun hitter.

59. Buffalo: Jaelyn Duncan OT Maryland

Duncan doesn’t rate as high as many linemen in this draft but he’s long, athletic and a gifted pass blocker. The Bills don’t need an OT right now but LT Dion Dawkins is 29, he only really has two years left on his deal and if they don’t want to pay him when he’s in his 30s, here’s a guy who might step in. When you’re as good as the Bills has been, you can make this move.

60. Cincinnati: Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M

The Bengals lost both starting safeties off of last year’s team. They drafted Dax Hill last year in anticipation of that and signed Nick Scott in free agency, but both those guys are smaller safeties. Johnson has size at 6’2 and yet he’s a good athlete who can cover a little. This isn’t a great safety class but Johnson is a guy worth having.

61. Chicago: Devon Achane RB Texas A&M

The Bears are trying to build out their offense to give Justin Fields a chance to develop. DJ Moore at WR was a nice start and getting a new RT in round one helps a lot. D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert are good backs, but they’re grinders. The offense needs more gamebreakers. Achane is a gamebreaker, he’s a blur on the field. He gives them a dimension they don’t have and Foreman and Herbert insure he won’t be used to grind out yards, just bust big runs.

62. Philadelphia: Nick Saldiveri OL Old Dominion

I can’t let the Eagles get out of round two without an offensive lineman. Howie Roseman loves big guys and he’s always trying to be a step ahead on the line. Saldiveri played RT at Old Dominion and dominated and then went to the Senior Bowl, moved inside to guard and played quite well. He wouldn’t start this year unless there’s an injury but Jason Kelce is year-to-year for retirement now, Cam Jurgens will play RG until he moves inside to replace Kelce. Saldiveri is also a hedge against Lane Johnson’s age and injury history at RT.

63. Kansas City: Cedric Tillman WR Tennessee

If there was a true pass rushing threat here on the board I would go with him, but there isn’t. Tillman is the one true X receiver in this class, he plays the position the way it should be played and uses his size to his advantage. Tillman isn’t a true burner but he’s fast enough and just knows how to play WR. The Chiefs only size at WR is Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Justin Watson, Tillman can be better than both.

2023 NFL Mock Draft 3.0 (Post Free Agency)

The last major piece of the off season that truly changes the draft is free agency. Not all of the free agents have signed but most of the big ones have signed and those are the guys that affect the draft. Teams go into the off season with needs and they can either fill them in free agency, trades, or through the draft. Now that they have signed free agents (and some notable trades have happened, or will happen) to fill roster holes they can look to the draft to fill the rest of their needs.

The other major news since my last mock draft was the Bears trading the #1 overall pick to Carolina for two 1^st round picks (this year and next year), two 2^nd round picks (this year and 2025) and WR DJ Moore. This trade significantly changes the top of the draft by making things a lot simpler. Carolina traded up to get a QB, we don’t know which QB just yet, but it’s not a trade you make unless it’s for a QB. Other moves may have shifted teams’ priorities in the top 10, both Seattle and Detroit made signings on defense that could really change their outlook on the draft. This is where things start to clear up. We are about six weeks out from the draft so teams have to focus in on where they want to go with their picks. Here we go.

1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago): CJ Stroud QB Ohio St.

The Panthers haven’t actually settled on a QB of choice here but this feels like the most likely one. Stroud seems like the surest thing in this draft. He’s the purest passer of the bunch, he has prototypical size, he’s the best processor of information of all the QBs, and he’s more athletic than he gets credit for. In my previous mock draft, I compared him to an athletic version of Tom Brady, that would fit Frank Reich just fine. Reich has worked with Phillip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, and others to varying degrees of success. He could turn Stroud into the best version of himself. Stroud would get to work with a good offensive line in front of him and while the team gave up DJ Moore in the trade, they have signed TE Hayden Hurst, RB Miles Sanders, and WR Adam Thielen. The team gave up quite a bit of draft capital in the trade but they aren’t completely baren of picks because they picked up extra ones in the Christian McCaffrey trade. They still need to add to the WR corps but they can still surround Stroud with a solid offense to play with.

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1): Bryce Young QB Alabama

The Texans’ moves have only really confirmed they plan to draft a QB. They signed a veteran backup QB Case Keenum, grabbed a veteran WR Robert Woods signed TE Dalton Schultz and RB Devin Singletary. They are trying to change the culture after two tumultuous years and Bryce Young would help that move tremendously. Between the leadership of new coach DeMeco Ryans and the character of Young, the path to a new and improved Houston Texans would start to take shape. Keenum is a good mentor and locker room presence, as is Robert Woods. Woods also allowed them to move Brandin Cooks, he was a good player but he was unhappy in Houston. There is no room for that energy here and it will be easier on Young if he doesn’t have to contend with an unhappy WR. Young’s size is his only drawback but the Texans need his leadership and demeanor as much as they need his talent.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): Will Anderson Jr. Edge Alabama

This pick now becomes a pivot point in this draft. If Carolina and Houston take QBs to start off the draft as expected, then teams may look to Arizona for a shot at the third QB if they really like one. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are potential starters at QB and there are plenty of teams that would welcome them. Indianapolis is next and they are likely to take one. I’m not sure new GM Monti Ossenfort wants to drop too far and if he doesn’t get an offer he likes, he can just stay put and take Anderson, arguably the best prospect in this draft. Anderson should be a terror off the edge for whichever team gets him and he would actually fit quite nicely in Arizona where new head coach Jonathan Gannon would love his ability to pressure the pocket. Anderson has star potential and the Cardinals have to build a defense almost from scratch, an elite pass rusher is a good place to start.

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1): Anthony Richardson QB Florida

The Colts were outbid for the first pick assuming they were bidding. Now they have to decide if they want to sit and wait for a QB at four, try to make a small deal with Arizona to insure no one else moves ahead of them for a QB, or try to gauge Houston’s appetite for some draft capital to move up to two. Here they stay put and take Richardson. I think he’s the guy they would take at two or three anyway. New head coach Shane Steichen developed Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia the last several years and Richardson isn’t all that dissimilar, except he’s bigger, stronger, and faster. Richardson needs to work on his passing but for now, he’s a super athlete who can move the offense along. He would benefit from Jonathan Taylor running the ball and having Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce at WR. His athleticism would help mitigate a less than stellar offensive line in front of him. He has all the tools to be an elite QB but the Colts have to allow him to develop without rushing him. I’m not sure if owner Jim Irsay is willing to wait but picking Steichen as his head coach means I think he might actually be willing to wait.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Jalen Carter DT Georgia

The Seahawks re-signed QB Geno Smith (and backup Drew Lock just for good measure) and while that doesn’t preclude them from taking a QB, it means they don’t have to take one unless someone they really like falls. I doubt Will Levis is that guy. However, Carter might tumble down the draft boards a little. His legal issues probably aren’t going to really hurt him, he recently pleaded no contest to some driving charges and isn’t facing jail time. His less than stellar showing at Georgia’s pro day is raising some red flags. He has time to do some other workouts and convince teams he’s fine and will get back on track. The Seahawks won’t be scared off, Pete Carroll believes in his own ability to motivate guys and he won’t shy away from Carter. Carter would fit nicely up front with newly signed defensive linemen Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed. There is a versatility to those two that would work well with Carter and he adds a youthful element that the team needs up front. He’s a game wrecker up front and that would bode well for their defense.

6. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams): Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech

Detroit’s secondary was an area of concern after a rough year and having a lot of free agents that they really didn’t want to bring back. They have Jeff Okudah, who had his best season last year and Jerry Jacobs, a young guy who came on last year and they like a lot, but that was it. They signed Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley and that adds real depth. They could still address CB but it feels like the defensive line offers better value now. Tyree Wilson is a big defensive end who can play both the run and pass. Opposite Aidan Hutchinson the Lions have a lot of bodies but most are smaller pass rushers with John Cominsky the only bigger body. I could see the Lions trading down if someone wants to move up for a QB. I don’t think they like any of the QBs enough to go get one here and unless they love Will Levis they pass on QB here.

7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11): Will Levis QB Kentucky

The Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo to be their starting QB but they are going to need someone to start at least the other seven games next year when he gets hurt. Also, they didn’t make a long-term commitment to Jimmy G which means they are still looking for a QB of the future. They aren’t going to move up to get a QB but should Levis fall here, I think they like him enough to draft him. They can let him learn behind Garoppolo for as long as he stays healthy this season. Levis is a physically gifted player who could take advantage of playing with Devante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow (assuming Renfrow is still there). I’m not sure this would be the best choice, this team really needs to improve their defense and there are some top defensive prospects still on the board, but I understand getting a QB when you need a QB.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon

It seems as if the Falcons are content to play next season with Desmond Ridder at QB and they re-signed and extended the right side of their line with Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom. They addressed a need up front on defense with DT David Onyemata and signed OLB Kaden Ellis from New Orleans for some pass rush help. They also splurged on safety Jessie Bates III because they were pretty bad on the back end last year. One area with a serious need is CB. AJ Terrell is an elite cover guy but Casey Hayward will be 34 next season and Isaiah Oliver just left for San Francisco. They have no depth. Gonzalez is my favorite CB in this draft and he and Terrell could pair up as one of the best cover duos in the league. He has length and athleticism and natural coverage skills. The team could look for a pass rusher like Lukas Van Ness or Myles Murphy here but they aren’t great fits in the Atlanta defense and Gonzalez would make a bigger impact quicker than they would.

9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern

The Bears got a really good deal from Carolina and picking up the Panthers’ first round pick next year could be huge if they are starting a rookie QB all season (or Andy Dalton for that matter). The key piece of the trade was WR DJ Moore. Moore has legitimate #1 WR ability, he’s been a borderline top WR every year and he’s never played with a good QB. He should be excellent with Justin Fields. They also have Chase Claypool who they got for their second-round pick in this draft that they hope to get more out of next year. I really wanted to give them RB Bijan Robinson here but they have added D’Onta Foreman and Travis Homer on cheap deals to supplement Khalil Herbert and I just can’t see them spending an asset like this on a RB. Skoronski is arguably the best OT in this draft and at worst he’s the best OG in this draft. I think he comes in and starts at RT immediately but he’s also a hedge against Braxton Jones not developing at LT. This team needs to make some decisions on guys like Cody Whitehair, Teven Jenkins, and Larry Borom moving forward and Skoronski gives them the ability to move those guys to different positions or possibly send them packing. He’s an upgrade at literally any position he ends up playing on the offensive line.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio St.

The Eagles have actually done a good job or re-signing a number of defensive players they could have lost and they have some young guys ready to step in everywhere but safety. They lost Marcus Epps and didn’t re-sign Chauncy Gardner-Johnson yet but there is no safety worth taking here and Howie Roseman almost always takes big guys. On the offensive line they didn’t re-sign Isaac Seumalo at RG and they lost backup Andre Dillard. Paris Johnson played RG at Ohio St. before he become their LT and he could step in at guard now, he can backup at OT, and he could be the eventual RT replacement for Lane Johnson since Johnson will be 33 this year. GM Howie Roseman almost always takes linemen early and after re-signing Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham the defensive line need isn’t nearly as pressing as it seemed. Johnson might just be too good for Roseman to overlook.

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10): Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame

The Titans addressed their offensive line with free agents Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill. They will give those guys a chance to be full-time starters with Dillard playing LT and Brunskill finding his best spot inside. After adding Azeez Al-Shaair and Arden Key at LB they can look to fill a more pressing need instead of reaching for a LB here. The Titans are still a run-first team with Derrick Henry and they don’t have a TE at the moment with Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim both free agents. Mayer would add a pass catcher to their offense who is also a very good blocker. They aren’t exactly stacked in the passing game and Mayer contested catch ability would be a welcomed addition for Ryan Tannehill (assuming he’s still the QB this year). Mayer will be fine blocking for them and that matters as much in their offense as his pass catching skills.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa

The Texans take Bryce Young with the second pick and they have added some veterans on offense to help him out; WR Robert Woods and OG Shaq Mason improve two units that needed help the most. The defense still needs a lot of help. Their pass rush was pretty bad last season, Jonathan Greenard was injured and Jerry Hughes was their most productive pass rusher. Jerry Hughes will be 35 years old. They signed Chase Winovich but he’s never been a productive pass rusher. Van Ness is a raw pass rusher but he has impressive physical tools. It would be quite beneficial for him to learn from a coaching staff led by DeMeco Ryans and from a vet like Hughes who knows all the tricks of the trade. The Texans are starting off their rebuild so they have time to wait for Van Ness to figure it out as a pass rusher.

13. New York Jets (7-10): Broderick Jones OT Georgia

Assuming the Jets hold onto this pick and don’t have to send it to Green Bay in the Aaron Rodgers trade I would think they would like to get better protection on the edges for Rodgers. Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, and Max Mitchell don’t make anyone feel comfortable with at the OT spot. Jones can step in on the left side with Becton slotted for the right side and Brown and Mitchell as depth. There are some other options like Myles Murphy at DE if they have to do something with Carl Lawson to get Aaron Rodgers’ contract in under the cap. The Jets’ defense was quite good last season so I expect this pick to be on offense to help Rodgers and we know he doesn’t like rookie WRs and they don’t need a RB or TE. That leaves the line. It might seem high but it wouldn’t be a bad move to draft John Michael Schmitz, the center from Minnesota because they could use a new one.

14. New England Patriots (8-9): Myles Murphy DE Clemson

Before free agency it seemed the Patriots would target an OT with Isaiah Wynn and a couple of other free agents leaving Trent Brown as the lone tackle. Then the Patriots extended Conor McDermott, re-signed Yodny Cajuste, and signed free agents Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson. Now they have a depth chart full of middling OTs, great. I’m avoiding the obvious pick here which is Belichick taking Alabama safety Brian Branch because Belichick loves collecting safeties. However, he has Kyle Duggar, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Joshuah Bledsoe, special teams stud Brandon Schooler and they are supposedly moving Jalen Mills, so he may have enough, but I wouldn’t be shocked. Myles Murphy seems like a Belichick type of DE, he’s big, he’s physical, and he doesn’t actually produce a lot of sacks. He can back up for now and with Lawrence Guy aging, he can eventually replace him. So, like I said, he’ll draft Brian Branch, just to bother me (I like Branch but no team needs this many safeties).

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9): Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio St.

The Packers are almost certainly trading Aaron Rodgers to the Jets but they already have the QB they want to take over in Jordan Love. Love is no guarantee to be good but they have to get a look at him this year to make a decision if he’s the guy going forward. The offensive line needs to be healthy, especially David Bakhtiari and Elgin Jenkins. They could definitely use a TE too but I think Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be too good to pass up for their offense. They need an inside slot receiver and that’s the exact role Smith-Njigba is made for. He’s not an outside guy. He doesn’t have the speed to win on the outside, however, he has the lateral quickness and precision route-running to destroy defenses from the slot. He would be Jordan Love’s favorite target as his security blanket over the middle. The Packers have Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to win on the outside, Smith-Njigba would make them even better by making teams cover over the middle. If the Packers take Dalton Kincaid from Utah at TE, I won’t be shocked but this should be the pick.

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1): Brian Branch FS Alabama

The Commanders plan to go with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at QB and see how far they can get. It might work out if their defense rebounds to be elite and their offense is solid otherwise it could result in them having a very high pick in the draft next year to get a new franchise QB. They added a couple of solid veteran starters to the offensive line in C/G Nick Gates and RT Andrew Wylie. Those two won’t set the world on fire but they are solid upgrades for a team that needed upgrades. If Howell or Brissett can be decent with the rest of that offense, they should be fine. On defense they need upgrades in the secondary. The picked-up Cam Dantzler from Minnesota off waivers but they a safety. Branch can do a little of everything, he can play deep, play in the slot, and he can be moved around. He’s a good coverage player and he will make them better overall on defense. He can be the playmaker they need in the secondary.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8): Darnell Wright OT Tennessee

The Steelers picked up Patrick Peterson at CB trying to put another band-aid on that spot so they may wait to address the position. One place they haven’t addressed in free agency is OT and while I think Darnell Wright is best suited for the right side of the line, some think he could play LT. Either way, he’s an upgrade at either RT or LT and then Dan Moore Jr. and Chukwuma Okorafor can battle for the other spot. This team needs to improve the offensive line so it can run the ball better and use Najee Harris instead of relying on Kenny Pickett too much. Wright had an excellent year last season at RT for Tennessee after he struggled the year before at LT. He has the athletic profile to be a LT but he will have to put in the work to make the switch work.

18. Detroit Lions (9-8): Dalton Kincaid TE Utah

The Lions have done a good job of building an offense around Jared Goff and their running game. They replaced Jamaal Williams with David Montgomery and that should keep things moving right along. Jameson Williams should step into the spot vacated by DJ Chark at WR leaving only TE as a sore spot. After trading TJ Hockenson last year, they could use a replacement in the passing game. Kincaid is an excellent pass catching TE who give them a nice complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. He isn’t the biggest guy and he’s not a good blocker but they aren’t drafting him to block.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9): Dawand Jones OT Ohio St.

The Buccaneers are in a strange spot. Their team has plenty of really good veterans that makes you think they should compete for their division but they are going with either Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield at QB. The team cut LT Donovan Smith because he made too much money and simply wasn’t very good any more. The belief is that they plan to move Tristan Wirfs from RT to LT which would solve their LT problem but create a hole at RT. Dawand Jones would fill that hole quite well. Jones is a gigantic human being and while he doesn’t move all that quickly, you don’t have to move very far when you have his size and length. Jones would solidify the OT spots on the team for the next several years as it seems the Buccaneers plan to keep Wirfs around for the long haul.

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8): John Michael Schmitz C Minnesota

The Seahawks re-signed Geno Smith which was their top priority to keep their offense going. They have RB Ken Walker, WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, TE Noah Fant, and OTs Charles Cross and Abe Lucas; that’s a pretty solid foundation to build around. One area that could undo all of it is the interior of the offensive line where Damien Lewis is the only sure thing. C Austin Blythe retired and Gabe Jackson was let go so they need multiple players inside. Schmitz is the best center in this draft and he’s an excellent place to start. He comes from Minnesota where they know how to run block and he will make Walker’s life a lot easier and keep Geno upright.

It seems as though the league is going with ignoring the fact Miami’s pick is forfeited and just moving on with 31 picks in round one. This is where Miami’s pick would have been.

21. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7): Bijan Robinson RB Texas

The Chargers could have been looking for a RT but the re-signed Trey Pipkins III meaning there is less of a reason to draft one early. They also signed Eric Kendricks at LB to try to fix their problems with run defense, something they still haven’t figured out. I still maintain they need a deep speed element like Jalin Hyatt and I wasn’t going to change from that pick without a really good reason, Austin Ekeler gave me that reason. Ekeler has been the Chargers primary offensive weapon for several years now and now he wants to get paid like it. One problem, the Chargers don’t want to give him a megadeal. Ekeler is fantastic but he does get banged up from time-to-time and he admits to wanting a complementary RB to take some of the workload. Well, here’s his replacement instead. Robinson is the complete back, he’s a runner and a pass catcher, much like Ekeler he excels at both. Robinson is younger, cheaper, and probably has a higher ceiling than Ekeler as a playmaker. The Chargers can look for the deep threat WR in round two, Jalin Hyatt may even still be available then, the WR group is hard to gauge.

22. Baltimore Ravens (10-7): Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois

The Ravens have the whole Lamar Jackson situation to figure out and their offense doesn’t make any moves until they figure that out. One thing they can do is solidify their defense. Marcus Peters is a 30-year-old CB who is a free agent they don’t plan to bring back. Marlon Humphrey needs a new partner on the outside and Witherspoon would be a great addition. He’s not the biggest CB but that’s fine because Humphrey is the guy who can take on the bigger WRs while Witherspoon can match up with the other shiftier guys. The Ravens don’t tend to reach to fill a need and that’s why they will pass on a WR and take Witherspoon. It also just so happens that Witherspoon is one of the best prospects left and he fills a need.

23. Minnesota Vikings (13-4): Cam Smith CB South Carolina

The Vikings have a need at WR and at CB and at this point I think the value of a guy like Cam Smith is better than the WRs in this draft. They did sign Byron Murphy and they did draft Andrew Booth Jr last year but they have no depth and Smith might be better than either of those guys. Booth is coming off of knee surgery. Smith is not the biggest CB but he plays with an attitude and doesn’t back down. He should be a starter immediately and he can be a high-level one at that. The Vikings other needs like WR and LB can be addressed later in the draft but the top of the CB class is starting to dwindle and they are better off getting a good one now. They could also use a pass rusher if they deal Za’Darius Smith but that move can also wait.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8): Kelee Ringo CB Georgia

The Jaguars offense adds Calvin Ridley at WR and with a healthy season out of OTs Cam Robinson and Walker Little they offense could be quite good. They lost Jawaan Taylor to Kansas City but if Robinson can stay on the field Little can play RT, they can be fine there. They should look for some OT depth but they can do that later. Here they look to help out their young defense. They let Shaquill Griffin go at CB and they need another outside guy. Ringo has plenty of flaws but he’s a superior athlete with good ball skills and supreme confidence. He gambles too often and gets beat but they can hope to coach that out of him. Either way, he’s a playmaker they could really use in the secondary and they should be able to fit him into their defensive scheme.

25. New York Giants (9-7-1): Quentin Johnston WR TCU

The Giants had arguably the worst WR corps in the league last season (the Bears may have been worse) but apparently, they didn’t mind it because they re-signed Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard. Wan’Dale Robinson and David Sills V are also still here. The only change they made was dumping Kenny Golladay and signing Paris Campbell, not exactly a needle mover. They did trade for TE Darren Waller but I think they still need WR help especially considering Shepard, Robinson, Campbell and Waller all have injury histories that should worry the team. Johnston is a boom or bust WR prospect. He’s 6’4, 212 lbs. and has great deep speed but he rarely plays as big as his size and his hands are inconsistent. Still, in this group of WRs he could be an absolute stud. Daniel Jones needs more playmakers and Johnston at least looks like one. The team also needs interior offensive line help so O’Cyrus Torrence is a distinct possibility here or if John Michael Schmitz makes it this far, he would be a no-brainer.

26. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Keion White DL Georgia Tech

The Cowboys have a couple of areas of concern, the interior of the offensive line and TE on offense. They let TE Dalton Schultz go and they are getting older on the line including Zack Martin and Tyron Smith. For now, Tyler Smith can be the LG if Tyron Smith and Terrance Steele get healthy but Tyler Smith is the eventual LT. Tyler Biadasz is the center and he’s fine but he’s replaceable. TE is a real possibility but there is plenty of depth at that position in the draft class so they can wait. On defense they need help up front. They traded for CB Stephon Gilmore to address the biggest need and brought back their safeties. Demarcus Lawrence is still a good DE but they don’t get much from the rest up front. Keion White has the ability to play inside and out on the defensive line and that could come in handy. He’s a more talented version of some of the guys they have and he can make some plays and help Lawrence and Micah Parsons as a pass rusher.

27. Buffalo Bills (13-3): Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh

The Bills do have a couple of needs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take an interior offensive lineman like O’Cyrus Torrence or a WR like Jordan Addison, a RB like Jahmyr Gibbs, or a LB like Drew Sanders. However, the Bills are the type of team to take the best player available and Kancey may be that guy. Kancey is an undersized DT who’s an excellent penetrator and pass rusher. The Bills drafted one of those guys once hoping he would be the next Aaron Donald, that was Ed Oliver, but he never turned into the disruptor Donald is. No one should be expected to be Aaron Donald but Kancey has many similar traits and can be better rusher than Oliver. Oliver will also be a free agent next year and I doubt the Bills want to invest in him, especially if they can get the cheaper rookie model.

28. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4): Darnell Washington TE Georgia

The Bengals have to get cheaper at some positions as they prepare to pay Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and possibly Tee Higgins over the next couple of years. That led to them letting Hayden Hurst walk in free agency but they need a better TE than Devin Asiasi. Washington is a beast at 6’7 and somewhere around 270 lbs. He is an excellent blocker and he has a huge catch radius. He will be a great red zone threat especially with Joe Burrow throwing to him and since he won’t be taking a backseat to Brock Bowers, he might actually catch some balls as a TE. The Bengals could grab Jahmyr Gibbs at RB as Joe Mixon’s eventual replacement or they could grab a RT if they decide to trade Jonah Williams after his trade request after losing his LT spot to Orlando Brown Jr. Safety help is also a big need and if one of the top four CBs falls here, they should seriously consider drafting one, otherwise they can wait to address RB, OL, safety or CB until rounds two and three.

29. New Orleans Saints (from Denver): Nolan Smith OLB Georgia

There is almost no chance Nolan Smith falls this far, he’s far too elite of an athlete and pass rusher but I just couldn’t find a good spot for him before this. The Saints aren’t a perfect match considering he’s more of a 3-4 OLB and they run a 4-3 but Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive mind and he would find a way to use Smith’s immense talent. One thing the Saints do need is a pass rusher. Cameron Jordan is aging, Marcus Davenport left for Minnesota, and Kaden Ellis signed in Atlanta, they need help. A playmaking LB can fit in anywhere and Smith is a major playmaker. This team is always trying to compete, they showed that by signing Derek Carr and bringing back Michael Thomas one more time, so a readymade starter at LB works. Smith is a far better option than relying on Zack Baun to finally breakout.

30. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3): Drew Sanders LB Arkansas

The Eagles brought back plenty of their defensive guys to make sure they aren’t desperately looking to fill holes but one place they lost some guys and don’t have all the replacements lined up is at LB. TJ Edwards and Kyzir White left and only Nakobe Dean can only fill one spot, likely at MLB. Sanders only really played LB for his one year at Arkansas after transferring from Alabama. He was a pass rusher at Alabama but Arkansas used him more as an off-ball LB, the Eagles will use him to do both. They already have Hassan Reddick as one LB who rushes, Sanders gives them even more options. He’s a big LB too so he can help offset the fact that Dean is undersized. Sanders has some developing ahead of him but for now, the Eagles can use him to do the things he does well and bring him along at the other stuff.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3): Bryan Bresee DT Clemson

The Chiefs should look for another OT after losing both Orlando Brown Jr and Andrew Wylie and only signing Jawaan Taylor. Counting on Lucas Niang to finally develop is a bad idea. Unfortunately, the value at OT isn’t great here as they would have to reach for Matthew Bergeron, Anton Harrison, or Jaelyn Duncan. There is great value at DT with Bresee, he would be a steal this late in round one. They lost Khalen Saunders and haven’t re-signed Derrick Nnadi or Brandon Williams. Chris Jones needs some help on the inside and Bresee is good enough to actually take some focus away from Jones because he can beat a guy inside pretty well. The Chiefs could look for a WR to replace Juju Smith-Schuster or try for some depth at safety after Juan Thornhill signed in Cleveland but Bresee is the best player available and when you’re the Super Bowl Champions, you don’t have to draft anything in particular.

Round 2

32. Pittsburgh: Jordan Addison WR USC

Diontae Johnson had 86 catches last year and no touchdowns. George Pickens started to impress on the outside and found some chemistry with Kenny Pickett. The Steelers don’t have any other receivers to count on. Addison was Pickett’s go-to guy at Pittsburgh two years ago and he would look awesome as a slot guy in their offense and be a real playmaker.

33. Houston: Cody Mauch OL North Dakota St.

The Texans extended Laremy Tunsil at LT, traded for Shaq Mason at RG and drafted Kenyon Green to play LG last year. Mauch was a tackle at NDSU but he worked out inside at both center and guard at the Senior Bowl. He’s a zone blocking type of player and the new Texans’ offensive coordinator comes from the Shanahan tree. Mauch could be the new center in Houston very quickly, they aren’t great at that spot.

34. Arizona: Julius Brents CB Kansas St.

Arizona’s top CB is Marco Wilson after Byron Murphy left for Minnesota, that’s not good. Brents is a 6’4 CB with great cover skills and he has legitimate #1 CB potential and he would start out as that immediately on this defense.

35. Indianapolis: DJ Turner CB Michigan

Turner was a speed demon at the combine with the fastest 40 time. He’s not the biggest CB but he has coverage skills and the Colts are woefully thin at CB. Turner could start immediately. They need plenty of help at spots on the offensive line too but Turner is good value here.

36. Los Angeles Rams: Derick Hall DE Auburn

It’s almost hard to make a pick for the Rams because their roster is in shambles, that’s the price you eventually pay when you mortgage everything to win a Super Bowl. They have a lot of free agents they can’t re-sign because their cap is taking the hit now for past spending. The offense has QB Matthew Stafford (assuming he’s healthy), WR Cooper Kupp, TE Tyle Higbee, and then a bunch of replacement level guys everywhere else. And that’s the good news. The defense is DT Aaron Donald and some young CBs they say they like (I wouldn’t go so far as to say I like them). They traded away draft capital for years and this is what happens to your roster. They have to start somewhere and just taking the best defensive playmaker left is a decent start. Hall has all the traits you look for in a pass rusher; speed, power, length, and he was actually somewhat productive on an Auburn team that wasn’t great. Getting Donald some pass rushing help is a good place to start and generating a pass rush could help those young corners they like so much. There’s a long road to a rebuild ahead.

37. Seattle: Zay Flowers WR Boston College

Seattle has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but after that the WR group is pretty rough. Flowers would be an excellent addition as a guy who can mix and match with Lockett both inside and out opposite Metcalf. Flowers is very small but he’s electric when he gets the ball and he would be a matchup nightmare as a third guy.

38. Las Vegas: Luke Musgrave TE Oregon St.

The Raiders traded Darren Waller to the Giants and they need some help there. Musgrave is a big, physical athlete who will only make it out of round one because of some medical questions with his knees. He has superstar potential and Jimmy G loves to throw to the TE.

39. Carolina: Trenton Simpson LB Clemson

The Panthers basically have Shaq Thompson at LB and then not much else. New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is bringing in a new defensive scheme and Simpson can fit into anything Evero wants to do. He’s good in coverage and he can rush the passer when needed as a blitzer.

40. New Orleans: Josh Downs WR North Carolina

The Saints re-signed Michael Thomas to a one-year reworked contract and they have Chris Olave, who had a great rookie year. The rest of the WR group is not good. Thomas isn’t really a guy you can count on either so Derek Carr needs help. Downs can be the slot guy immediately and he’ll become a Carr favorite quickly.

41. Tennessee: Joe Tippman C Wisconsin

The Titans may have added Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill to the line but they still need a center with Aaron Brewer penciled in there now. Tippman comes from Wisconsin where they ran the ball with power, that’s the Titans’ game. He would start immediately.

42. Cleveland Browns: Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee

This is the Browns first pick after trading their first rounder to Houston for Deshaun Watson. They have spent some money to try to sure up their defense with DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DE Ogbo Okoronkwo, and safety Juan Thornhill plus they hired Jim Schwartz as the new defensive coordinator. Watson didn’t have a great year after missing the first half or so of the year with his suspension, the offense never found a groove. Amari Cooper proved he still has it at WR and had a good year but the rest of the group is underwhelming. Donovan Peoples-Jones is solid but never spectacular and he’s simply not the deep threat they claim he is. They need someone to truly take the top off the defense, open up the underneath stuff for TE David Njoku and WR David Bell, and back the safeties up so Nick Chubb has more room to run. Say hello to Mr. Hyatt. Deep speed is his game and he threatens everyone deep. Hyatt doesn’t have to be the whole package right away; he can simply play his game for now and learn some of the finer points of being a WR from Cooper and Bell.

43. New York Jets: Will McDonald IV Edge Iowa St.

The Jets rely pretty heavily on Carl Lawson and Quinnen Williams for pressure on the QB and could really use some extra help. Will McDonald is a thin-framed DE who has great speed off the edge and a deadly spin move. He would be an excellent addition as a designated pass rusher as a rookie who could grow into a bigger role.

44. Atlanta: Rashee Rice WR SMU

The Falcons need WRs to go with Drake London and picking up TE Jonnu Smith to go with Kyle Pitts is not enough. Given Arthur Smith’s affinity for bigger players he will likely go for Rice over a guy like Marvin Mims even if it might be smarter to vary his type of WR.

45. Green Bay: Tucker Craft TE South Dakota St.

The Packers are looking to make the move to Jordan Love and surrounding him with some skill position talent would be good. Craft is a small-school prospect but he has big time athleticism and he has a variety of skills. Playing at South Dakota St means he had to do many different things and that helped him become an all-around TE.

46. New England Patriots: Deonte Banks CB Maryland

Belichick loves to draft defensive backs and he actually usually does well with it. One problem is his propensity to draft small guys named Jones (the Jones thing is less of a problem than the small thing). Banks is over 6’1 and plays man coverage, which Belichick likes. Jack Jones was in the coach’s doghouse last year so Banks could potentially slide in at one outside spot and give the team some size against bigger WRs.

47. Washington: Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma

The Commanders have Charles Leno Jr at LT and while he’s been serviceable Harrison would represent the potential to improve tremendously. Harrison isn’t a finished product but he could come in, give them depth for now, and eventually take over for Leno at LT.

48. Detroit: Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama

Detroit swapped David Montgomery in for Jamaal Williams and if Gibbs falls this far, they would be crazy not to swap him in for D’Andre Swift. Swift has had some great moments for Detroit but he’s injury prone and unreliable. Gibbs does all the things Swift can do and he’s younger and cheaper.

49. Pittsburgh: Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M

The Steelers didn’t re-sign Terrell Edmunds and only brought in Damontae Kazee at safety. They need a guy to pair long-term with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Johnson has a myriad of complementary skills. He can cover in the slot a little, cover a TE, and do some other stuff. He would work nicely with Fitzpatrick.

50. Tampa Bay: Tuli Tuipulotu DL USC

Tuipulotu is a big end who could add nice depth to the front three in Tampa Bay and help them get younger up front. The have Logan Hall but the other ends have aged out and now it’s just Hall and Greg Gaines to flank Vita Vea and Gaines is pretty under sized. That’s not Tuli’s problem at all, he just needs some experience.

51. Miami Dolphins: Sam LaPorta TE Iowa

Mike McDaniels comes from the Shanahan coaching tree in San Francisco and he has been building an offense like the 49ers. He even has two former 49er RBs so it would make sense he might want his own version of George Kittle. LaPorta has been compared to Kittle and has a similar skill set. He is a very good receiver and can be used both inline and on the outside. He’s a willing blocker and while he can be more consistent, he can get there. LaPorta is one of the better two-way TEs in this draft and that’s saying something because this is a stacked TE draft. The Dolphins have been assembling a top group of skill position players and they let TE Mike Gesicki go because he wasn’t a great fit in their scheme, LaPorta is obviously a fantastic fit for them. He also won’t demand the ball but he’ll make everyone pay for how much attention they have to give to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. In this offense, he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player.

52. Seattle: O’Cyrus Torrence OG Florida

The Seahawks need more help than just a center inside on the offensive line and Torrence is too good to pass up. I have a hard time thinking he will actually fall this far but it’s possible. He would immediately step in at RG.

53. Chicago: Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas St.

The Bears need some pass rush because they simply don’t have much. They signed Demarcus Walker in free agency but he’s not really a pure pass rusher. Anudike-Uzomah will be a good designated pass rusher as a rookie. He has plenty of ability to become a good DE in the NFL.

54. L.A. Chargers: Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi St.

The JC Jackson signing was a catastrophe last year and while they have to hope to salvage something from him this year, they need more CB help. Forbes is really skinny but he’s strong enough and he’s a very good cover guy.

55. Detroit: Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee

The Lions might be the best landing spot for Hooker. He is coming off a knee injury and needs time to heal. Hooker has all the physical skills you want and he would be an excellent guy to develop behind Jared Goff. He could be their long-term starter eventually.

56. Jacksonville: Matthew Bergeron OT Syracuse

Even with Cam Robinson and Walker Little penciled in at the tackle spots, they need depth. Robinson isn’t the picture of health and Bergeron could be their long-term replacement for him. For now, he can be depth at several positions and maybe push the starters.

57. New York Giants: Steve Avila OG TCU

The Giants lost Nick Gates inside on the offensive line and they need some reinforcements. Avila is a really wide body at 334 lbs. and he’s nearly immovable. The Giants need a guy who can start early and Avila has plenty of starting experience in college, his transition to the NFL should be quick.

58. Dallas: Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA

The Cowboys cut Ezekiel Elliott for salary cap purposes and franchise tagged Tony Pollard. Pollard is coming off an injury but he should be fine next season. Pollard is an absolute speed demon who deserves his chance to be the #1 RB but he’s not built to get 30 touches a game. Elliott was the power back and they need a short yardage guy to take that role. Charbonnet can be more than that but as a rookie he’ll be fine being Pollard’s partner.

59. Buffalo: Jack Campbell LB Iowa

This might be a little high for Campbell but the Bills just lost LB Tremaine Edmunds in free agency and Matt Milano needs a new running mate. Edmunds was a tall, lanky LB with great range, sounds like a Hawkeye I know. Campbell is rangy and instinctive and would make a nice replacement at MLB that would allow Milano to keep doing what he’s been doing quite well.

60. Cincinnati: Clark Phillips III CB Utah

Cincinnati’s top CB is Chidobe Awuzie, he got hurt last year and they had to rely on Eli Apple again. Apple is a free agent they shouldn’t bring back and Phillips would make him unnecessary. Phillips isn’t the biggest CB but what he lacks in size he makes up for in attitude, he doesn’t back down from anyone. He has a higher ceiling than Cam Taylor-Britt or Mike Hilton so he would really upgrade the secondary.

61. Chicago: Devon Achane RB Texas A&M

The Bears let David Montgomery go and signed D’Onta Foreman as his replacement as Khalil Herbert’s partner. Foreman and Herbert are power backs who run people over, Achane is the guy you can’t catch. He’s the homerun hitter they need. If you want this offense to succeed, you have to get gamebreakers, DJ Moore was a start, Achane is the next level. He’s small but he’s absolutely electric with the ball and can score at a moment’s notice. He can make Justin Fields look very good taking a 4-yard dump off pass for a 60-yard TD.

62. Philadelphia: Jordan Battle S Alabama

Right now, the Eagles are looking at starting Reed Blankenship and K’Von Wallace at safety, that seems unlikely. For a team that is looking to compete for a Super Bowl, you have to do better. Battle doesn’t wow you with his physical gifts but the guy started 50 games at Alabama for Nick Saban, he can start in the NFL.

63. Kansas City: Marvin Mims Jr. WR Oklahoma

The Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman leaving them with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore, not exactly awe-inspiring. Mims was a playmaker at Oklahoma regardless of who his QB was and if you put him with Mahomes, look out. He isn’t the biggest receiver but he can play inside or outside and the Chiefs have never cared much about size at WR.

2023 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 (post Combine)

The NFL scouting combine really shouldn’t change a prospects rating very much unless it reveals a real medical issue or a guy shows some serious character issues during the interview process. However, that’s not the reality of the situation. The athletic testing can make teams overlook playing issues they see on film by making them believe “we can fix that issue because he’s such a good athlete”. Someone falls for it almost every year, this year it’s going to happen with Anthony Richardson, the only question is, how high does he go?

Richardson is a freak athlete, we already knew that, but he is 6’4, he is 244 lbs., he ran 4.43 in the 40, and he set the record for the vertical (40.5 inches) and broad jump (10’9) for QBs. He has a cannon for an arm and he looked good during the on field throwing session. All of that means someone is going to take a chance on him and hope they hit the lottery. There were others who helped themselves with good testing numbers; CB DJ Turner from Michigan had the fastest 40 time at 4.26, he’s still undersized but the dude can run. Nolan Smith is an edge rusher from Georgia who ran 4.39 at 238 lbs., he’s a little light for an edge but he you can’t teach speed. As much as it shouldn’t matter, the combine numbers do matter, it’s a fact of life.

I’m going to go a little crazy with this mock draft because this draft just feels a little out there. I’m calling a number of trades early, spicing it up because this thing needs a little of that. Here goes nothing.

1. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE from Chicago): Anthony Richardson QB Florida

This would be an overreaction to the combine results but I could see this happening. The Bears want to trade out of this spot but there hasn’t been a QB prospect that really excites anyone so the offers haven’t been pouring in so far. What the Bears needed was a prospect to get some buzz (hello Mr. Richardson) and they need a team owner who is desperate and impulsive (hello Jim Irsay). Irsay wants to fix the Colts QB spot but it has been hard to believe GM Chris Ballard would trade up for Bryce Young considering Ballard’s affinity for bigger players. Richardson should probably sit for a year but if the Colts move up to get him, he starts day one. New head coach Shane Steichen was the OC for the Eagles these last couple of years while they brought Jalen Hurts along and built a great offense around him. Steichen could do the same using Richardson’s elite athleticism while developing him as a passer. He’s also big enough to take the hits behind an offensive line that needs some work, that is a major concern with taking Young. I will say, I whole-heartedly disagree with this pick if it happens, I think Richardson has major bust potential. However, with his athleticism in today’s game perhaps his bust potential isn’t as high as I think. His ceiling is being Cam Newton when Newton was winning the MVP with the Carolina Panthers. His floor is probably being Cam Newton when he was starting for Patriots, a guy who can keep the offense moving with his legs even if he’s only completing 50% of his passes. Richardson doesn’t look like he has JaMarcus Russell bust potential because by all accounts, the kid works hard and wants to get better.

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1): Bryce Young QB Alabama

This would work out just fine for the Texans if the Colts move up for Richardson. They are trying to redefine their franchise; they are trying to establish a new culture after a few very tumultuous years dealing with coaching changes and the Deshaun Watson saga. They hired DeMeco Ryans to kick off this culture change and Bryce Young is the type of winner and leader to build it around. I have serious questions about his frame and don’t tell me he’s fine because of his fake weight (204 lbs.) at the combine making him seem like he’s Kyler Murray size. He will play at somewhere between 190-195 lbs. and we will just have to see if that holds up. This team needs to invest in their offensive line to protect him and then rely on that line and RB Dameon Pierce to carry the offense, that will give Young the best chance to succeed. There isn’t a team in the league that could use Young’s character and personality more than the Texans. He can be a very good QB in the NFL, I just don’t know how long he can last.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): Will Anderson Jr. Edge Alabama

The Jalen Carter revelation was the type of issue that can hurt a guy’s stock. Carter was allegedly involved in the car accident a week after the National Championship game that killed two people. He has been charged with reckless driving and leaving the scene of an accident but for now we don’t know if that is all he will be charged with. For now, I have the Cardinals pivoting off of taking Carter to replace JJ Watt and grabbing Anderson, the top edge rushing threat in this draft. The Cardinals desperately need pass rushing help so it’s an easy move for them. In he end, I’m not sure Carter’s potential involvement in the crash will hurt his stock, it’s going to be more about how he handles teams’ questions about it. The Cardinals need talent and new GM Monti Ossenfort is unlikely to take a chance on someone he’s unsure of in his first draft, Anderson is the safer play here.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Chicago): CJ Stroud QB Ohio St.

The Bears take advantage of teams desperate for QBs again and trade down to pick up even more assets. The Raiders let Derek Carr walk, they aren’t likely players for Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady retired. That’s leaves Jarrett Stidham at QB1 right now, that’s not ideal. Here the Raiders move up a few spots and grab Stroud, the most accurate QB in the draft. Stroud was considered a pure pocket passer throughout the season because he rarely pulls the ball down and runs. He did show he has that ability during the playoff game against Georgia but it’s not his default, he would rather stand in the pocket, move around to buy some time and then find his guys downfield. It is hard for teams to come up with a comp for Stroud but the truth is, he’s the athletic version of Tom Brady. He’s pinpoint accurate, steady and unflappable in pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and he’s highly intelligent. He is exactly what Josh McDaniels needs in his offense and if you put him on the field with Devante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs, he’s going to be elite.

5. Carolina Panthers (TRADE from Seattle): Will Levis QB Kentucky

It’s trade-a-palooza in the top five because everyone wants a QB because they don’t have one. Seattle re-signs Geno Smith, kicks the QB can down the road, picks up Carolina’s first round pick next year and hopes they get in on the 2024 QB class instead. The Panthers have needed a QB solution since Cam Newton left (the first time) and they move up to get Will Levis because he’s the last of the top four QBs. Levis can start for Frank Reich’s offense. The Panthers have a solid line, one top WR in DJ Moore, they can find a RB in the draft or free agency, and this draft is stocked with TEs they can grab later. With the offensive coaching staff in place and some nice pieces around him, they would give Levis a chance to succeed immediately and Reich would finally have a young QB to build around, a luxury he never had in Indy.

6. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams): Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon

If Jalen Carter hasn’t gone at this point the Lions are going to have a major decision to make. Carter might be the last piece to the puzzle of their defensive line but CB is a massive need. Gonzalez is a big athlete with great twitch and speed and could have a Sauce Gardner-like effect as a rookie. Jeff Okudah played well last season but that’s one year out of four and they have a bunch of free agents at the position. Carter’s legal issues are the tiebreaker and they go with Gonzalez, it’s a solid choice. Gonzalez is my top CB prospect and he can be a CB1 in the NFL, that’s a valuable pickup. Detroit is trying to take the next step towards the playoffs and getting better in the secondary is a huge need.

7. Chicago Bears (TRADE from Las Vegas): Jalen Carter DT Georgia

This would be the dream scenario for the Bears, assuming Carter’s legal troubles don’t keep him from playing in the NFL. I suspect he will cut a deal with prosecutors and maybe face a short suspension from the NFL. The accident was tragic and circumstances of it being from alleged street racing makes it really stupid and poor judgement. Call me a cynic but I doubt a prosecutor in Georgia is going to go hard after a Georgia football player and look for jail time. The NFL might suspend him a game or two but they won’t go beyond that. The Bears take the leap after picking up multiple picks from multiple teams and they end up with the best player in the draft. Carter may have made some really bad choices he will regret for the rest of his life but there are plenty of examples of him being a good guy. He can play football and he would seriously improve the Bears defense up front. He’s a game wrecker at DT, those guys are hard to come by.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech

I considered getting really crazy with this pick and trading it to the Ravens in a package for Lamar Jackson but I’ll skip that move for now. The Falcons move forward with Desmond Ridder for this season and they have to help their defense. They can’t rush the passer and they need help up front. Wilson is big and physical at 6’6 275 lbs. and he can be useful in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense. They mostly run 3-4 so he would do well as an end there, he will hold up great in the run game and give them some pass rushing juice too. Wilson is a big man who moves well and while he may not put up huge sack numbers, he can help a defense in many ways, and Atlanta needs help in all those ways.

9. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE from Carolina): Keion White DL Georgia Tech

The Seahawks are always good for picking the first-round pick that makes everyone go…Who? Keion White is well-known in scouting circles but Georgia Tech hasn’t been a powerhouse lately. White is a big, physical athlete who can play inside or outside and they need some reinforcements on the defensive front in Seattle. LJ Collier and Poona Ford are free agents, Shelby Harris will be 32 and Al Woods will be 36 next year. White gives them some options up front. I’m not a huge fan of his but that would fit with the Seahawks as I usually disagree with their first-round picks.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa

The Eagles went all-in this last year and made a run to the Super Bowl but now comes the bill. They have a lot of free agents on defense and the defensive line will be hit especially hard. It also happens to be a lot of aging vets so they will look to replace them, not re-sign them. Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh, Linval Joseph, and Robert Quinn are all free agents. Brandon Graham will be 35 and Derek Barnett is coming off a knee injury. Lukas Van Ness showed elite athleticism at the combine and he has versatility to line up outside or kick inside when needed. The Eagles could use his youth and versatility as they transition to some new blood on the defensive front. He can be a long-term partner for Josh Sweat, the only real young guy they have they can count on. Van Ness needs to develop his pass rushing skills and learn what it means to have a pass rushing plan when attacking off the edge but he’s 6’5, 272 lbs., with a 7’ wingspan, and great agility, you can’t teach that stuff.

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10): Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio St.

The Titans released Taylor Lewan, their long-time starting LT and they probably shouldn’t count on Dennis Daley to be the full-time starter. They are a power running team and they need to rebuild the offensive line if they want to remain one. There are three OTs expected to go early in round one; Paris Johnson Jr, Peter Skoronski, and Broderick Jones. Skoronski is the most technically proficient of the three, Jones probably has the highest ceiling, but Johnson fits the Titans profile the best. He’s large, physical and they drafted an OT from Ohio St. last year who ended up starting at RT for them, Nicholas Petit-Frere, I can see them going back to that well. Johnson can step in right away and while he can be an immediate starter, he also has some room to get better considering he’s only started for one year at LT.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Myles Murphy DE Clemson

The Texans are almost a clean slate because they need help in many places. With the QB position addressed with Bryce Young, DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio can look to address the defense with this pick they got from Cleveland in the Watson trade. Myles Murphy is a physical specimen who has some work to do on his game but he has shone development throughout the year so he can still get better. He is a very disruptive force off the edge but he has problems finishing plays. He gets pressure on the QB but just doesn’t finish off with sacks. This would send him to play for a good defensive coach in Ryans who could hopefully teach him to finish and get the absolute best out of his athletic talent.

13. New York Jets (7-10): Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern

The Jets didn’t get Derek Carr and this is too late to draft a QB but regardless of who starts at QB, they need help up front. They can hope Mekhi Becton comes back from his injury but even if they do, they still need another OT. Skoronski has less than desirable length for an offensive tackle but he’s efficient and effective and he has elite technique. He can slot in on the left side so they can move Becton to RT. Solidifying the offensive line with a new QB behind it can really unlock this offense. Robert Saleh got the defense going last year, this year they need to fix the offense.

14. New England Patriots (8-9): Broderick Jones OT Georgia

The Patriots struck out on the last Georgia offensive tackle they drafted, Isaiah Wynn. Wynn was undersized and could never stay healthy and moving him to RT this last year didn’t help, they will let him walk in free agency. Jones is a different kind of tackle. He was bigger than anticipated at the combine, coming in at 6’5 with long arms and a big wingspan. He’s the most athletically gifted of the three top OTs in this draft and he can start from day one. I would suggest the Patriots move Trent Brown back to RT and let Jones have the left side. They need to improve the line in front of Mac Jones because he’s simply not that fleet of foot and this team wants to run the ball. Jones has some technical issues he needs to fix but new offensive line coach Adrian Klemm was brought in for just that reason, make the line better. It’s not a sexy pick but I really don’t want to see them draft a WR who will end up a bust. Besides, Belichick just love having guys with the last name Jones on the team.

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9): Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame

The Packers need pass catchers whether Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love line up at QB. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both showed flashes of being good WRs last season but Allen Lazard is a free agent, so is Randall Cobb, so are TEs Robert Tonyan and Mercedes Lewis. Lewis is almost as old as Rodgers and Tonyan can’t seem to stay healthy and neither can Cobb. They shouldn’t re-sign any of those three and I wouldn’t pay much to keep Lazard. Mayer isn’t the dynamic athlete some of the other TEs in this class have proven to be but he’s the best overall TE. He’s a fantastic blocker, he’s a contested catch master in the passing game, and he’ll make any QB he plays with quite happy. He’s a weapon in the passing game and the running game. They need a refresh at TE, Mayer is the guy they should restart with.

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1): Brian Branch DB Alabama

Washington is a tough one here. They need help in the secondary and while a CB would be preferable, I’m not sure any of the top ones are the best fit on their defense. Most of the top CBs are man cover guys and the Commanders play more zone. Branch played safety at Alabama but he also lined up in the slot. He can be the nickel corner and the Commanders need that for sure. Branch is scheme versatile and he actually worked out with the CBs at the combine so he has real coverage skills. They just need defensive backfield help and Branch can be a chess piece to work with. I also seriously considered giving this team an interior offensive lineman like C John Michael Schmitz or OG O’Cyrus Torrence, they need interior line help almost as much as they need secondary help.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8): Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn St.

This one might be a little too on the nose with Joey Porter Jr being drafted by his dad’s former team. However, he’s actually the right pick and a good fit for this team. Cameron Sutton is a free agent and Levi Wallace and Ahkello Witherspoon aren’t exactly a dynamic pair at outside CB. Porter is a long, fluid athlete with legitimate CB1 potential and the Steelers haven’t had a CB1 since Joe Haden’s best days (those were a while ago). They should take a serious look at the offensive line but Porter is just too great of a value pick here. A legitimate, high-caliber starting CB is worth more than a starting interior offensive lineman (this would be a reach for the next OT), and you can still get good linemen later.

18. Detroit Lions (9-8): Dalton Kincaid TE Utah

The Lions traded TJ Hockenson last year because they didn’t want to have to pay him when he hit free agency. They do need a TE who can be a bigger part of the passing offense than what they have right now. Kincaid is the best pure pass catcher of the great TE class and he would pair well with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Williams brings the deep speed element and St. Brown is a master out of the slot and in the middle of the field. Kincaid can dominate in the intermediate area and down the seam and be a dynamic weapon as they grow this offense.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9): Nolan Smith OLB Georgia

The Bucs have a boatload of free agents on defense especially in the secondary. They are really losing depth at safety but there really isn’t a guy to take here. They could look at a d-lineman like Bryan Bresee but he’s not the best schematic fit. One thing they were sorely lacking last year was an elite edge rusher. Shaq Barrett missed half the year and he’s going to be 31 next season. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t proven to be a major pass rushing force. Smith missed time last season at Georgia with injuries which is why he is flying a bit under the radar. He broke out with a blazing 40 time at the combine and someone is going to take a chance on his incredible athleticism and pass rushing skill. The Bucs defense would be more effective overall if they get more of a pass rush.

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8): John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota

I have the Seahawks taking Keion White in the top 10 because they are the team most likely to march to the beat of their own drummer. Here they take Schmitz because they need to address the interior of their offensive line, they really want to run the ball, and finally because fixing the offensive line to better protect Geno Smith is just twisting the knife in the Russell Wilson saga. Their starting center Austin Blythe retired and they probably want to replace OG Gabe Jackson so they have some work to do in between their two OT starters they got in last year’s draft. Schmitz is a rock inside. He’s a big guy, he’s a natural center, he’s been playing for the Gophers so power running is in his blood. This isn’t a sexy pick but he’s an excellent player, he’s the best center in the draft, and it might piss off Russell Wilson that the Seahawks just keep drafting offensive linemen now that he’s gone. That’s enough reason for John Schneider and Pete Carroll.

21. Miami Dolphins forfeited this pick because their owner thinks the rules don’t apply to him. I’m not sure how the NFL is going to count this, are they moving everything from here on up or not? We’ll see. I’m just counting it as 21 and moving on to 22.

22. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7): Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee

I’m not coming off of this pairing unless the Chargers make a trade for a guy like Brandin Cooks before the draft. They should probably take Dawand Jones at RT to finally fix that spot and I wouldn’t blame them, but I’m sticking with Hyatt. Let’s be clear, Hyatt is not the best WR in this class even though I have him going first at the position. This WR class is rough. We have been spoiled for the last several years, this class likely does not contain a true #1 WR. There are some solid #2 guys, some really good slot guys, some interesting gadget guys, but no #1 guys. The Chargers have the big X WR in Mike Williams, they have the true possession monster with Keenan Allen, they do not have a deep ball, take-the-top-off, legitimate speed threat (spare me any mention of Jalen Guyton). Hyatt is the perfect complement to those guys, he gives them someone who can make use of Justin Herbert’s elite arm strength, and the fact he isn’t a well-versed route runner is moot, just send him deep, he can learn the rest as he goes.

23. Baltimore Ravens (10-7): Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois

The Ravens couldn’t reach an agreement with Lamar Jackson on a contract so they used the non-exclusive franchise tag on him. That means he can negotiate with other teams, get an offer from someone else, and the Ravens can match it. That’s what’s going to happen. The Ravens believe Jackson can’t get a fully guaranteed contract from someone else, he thinks he can, one of them will be right, either way, the Ravens aren’t letting him go for two 1^st round picks just to start over at QB. They should probably get him a WR but they won’t. They need a CB to replace the aging and far less effective Marcus Peters. Witherspoon is tough, physical, and really talented, he’ll fit right in.

24. Minnesota Vikings (13-4): Cam Smith CB South Carolina

Patrick Peterson, Chandron Sullivan, Duke Shelley, and Kris Boyd are all free agent CBs for the Vikings. That’s going to leave Cam Dantzler awful lonely in the meeting rooms. Peterson still played at a high-level last year but he’s seriously aging and his cliff could come at any time. Cam Smith has good size, top man cover skills, and he would start immediately in Minnesota. They could also look to fix their center spot, but there isn’t one worth taking here and they can get one later. The defensive line needs some help at some point. LB Eric Kendricks was released in a cap move too so they could use a MLB. That feels like a need to address later too. Smith would be excellent value and he’s a very good player.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8): Dawand Jones OT Ohio St.

The Jaguars franchise tagged TE Evan Engram instead of OT Jawaan Taylor. If Taylor gets a big offer and they don’t match it, they are going to have a hole at RT. Taylor played quite well in his first year under Doug Pederson so he could get paid. Jones is a massive human at over 6’8, 370 lbs. with a wingspan over 7 feet long and some of the longest arms in football. He isn’t the most fluid mover but when you’re that big, you don’t have to move that much to block people. The Jaguars roster is surprisingly in good shape so they can just take the best player if they happen to re-sign Taylor.

26. New York Giants (9-7-1): Jordan Addison WR USC

The Giants re-signed Daniel Jones to a 4-year deal and that allowed them to franchise tag Saquon Barkley, that’s two major pieces of the offense. Now if they just had a WR who was worth a damn. This draft class isn’t great but these guys are better than what the Giants threw out there last year for Jones. Addison isn’t the fastest guy, he’s not the biggest guy, but he’s an effective player. He plays faster than his run time at the combine. He’s a natural receiver with inherent pass catching skills. He runs good routes and he would give Jones someone he can count on when he needs a playmaker. I’m not sure Addison ever becomes a #1 (he might, but probably not) but he will make a very good #2 WR, he’ll just have to impersonate a WR1 for the time being.

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Kelee Ringo CB Georgia

Ringo is a fantastic athlete with great size and he looks the part of a top-notch CB. He doesn’t always play like one. He likes to gamble to try to make plays but that’s exactly what Trevon Diggs does and the Cowboys have made that work. They need help in the secondary and while Ringo’s undisciplined play could be a problem, he’s still an upgrade talentwise. There is also the added bonus that a lot of people think Ringo shouldn’t even be a CB and should be moved to safety where he would be in a position to freelance a bit more and make plays in front of him. The Cowboys need safety help as much as they need CB help. I did struggle a bit with this pick. They could do the smart thing and grab a DT in Bryan Bresee who wouldn’t be all that flashy but would help solve their issues inside on the d-line. They could also grab one of the really good TEs since they may lose Dalton Schulz in free agency after tagging Tony Pollard instead of Schulz again. There is more TE depth than CB depth so they can address that later.

28. Buffalo Bills (13-3): Bijan Robinson RB Texas

Robinson shouldn’t be here, he really should be a top 10 pick but that just isn’t going to happen for a RB, even one as good as he is. If he falls this far, every team in the league should kick themselves if the Bills get him. Robinson is an awesome RB, he’s a lock for offensive rookie of the year if he goes to a team with any ability in the run game. He’s a twitchy athlete with speed, power, balance, and agility. He’s a fantastic pass catcher, he would probably rank in the top five WRs in this draft if he were simply a WR (that might be an overstatement but not by much). Devin Singletary is a free agent and even if he returns, the Bills should draft Robinson if he falls this far, he’s way too good to still be on the board. I wouldn’t be upset if the Patriots take him 14^th and they already have Rhamondre Stevenson. Robinson will be a top 10 RB next season if he goes to any team that gives him the majority of the carries. If he goes to Buffalo’s offense, he could be top 5.

29. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4): Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama

The Bengals are looking at having to find a way to pay Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins over the next two seasons, that’s not going to be cheap. That means TE Hayden Hurst is probably gone this year and Joe Mixon isn’t getting a big contract extension either. Mixon is a fantastic player but RB is a more easily replaceable position especially if Gibbs falls this far. Gibbs is a special talent who is a cross between Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Charles. He would be electric in this offense. He’s fast, he has great pass catching ability, and he’ll be a much cheaper RB being on a rookie contract. It’s possible they could also grab an OT here to save some money and replace Jonah Williams at LT.

30. New Orleans (from three different teams): Quentin Johnston WR TCU

The Saints got this pick from Denver as compensation for Sean Payton taking the head coaching job. The Broncos got it from Miami in the Bradley Chubb trade earlier this year after the Miami originally got in from San Francisco in the Trey Lance deal (got all that?). So, the Saints get a first round pick after trading their original one last year to move up to get Chris Olave, and here they take another WR? Classic Saints move. Trust me, they should take Bryan Bresee or some secondary help, however, Michael Thomas should be out the door and Jarvis Landry is a free agent. That leaves Olave with some not-so-great partners for new QB Derek Carr. Somehow, they signed Carr, the Saints make up the salary cap as they go. If you’re spending $35 million a year on Carr, you should give him more than Olave and Alvin Kamara. Quentin Johnston is a big WR with great outside speed. He would be a great complement to Olave, they just have to teach him to catch, he’s not great at catching the football, it’s a work in progress.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3): Bryan Bresee DT Clemson

If the Eagles keep the #10 pick and use it, I could see Howie Roseman trading this one to someone who wants to get back into the end of round one. Roseman would gladly push the pick a year on the off chance it ends up higher than this next season. If he does make the pick, offensive or defensive line is a good bet. Roseman likes to address the lines early and after taking Lukas Van Ness with his first pick he can look inside to Bresee. Bresee shouldn’t be around this late so this would be enormous value for the Eagles. Two defensive linemen would seem strange until you look at all the free agents they have on the d-line and the fact that Roseman loves himself some linemen in round one. Bresee is also better than any CB or safety they can get here.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3): Darnell Wright OT Tennessee

There’s always an offensive tackle who gets pushed up a little bit because the position is such a need. The Chiefs didn’t franchise Orlando Brown Jr. and while they hope to re-sign him anyway, they will likely not be able to hold onto him and RT Andrew Wylie. Wright feels like a RT only guy but if necessary, they could try him at LT if Brown departs. Either way, they need an OT and Wright is the best one available. He had a really good season at Tennessee and followed it up with a good workout at the combine. It might make teams reconsider him on the left side even though he was far better at RT this last year compared to his previous season at LT. Protecting Patrick Mahomes will be always be priority one and this is an investment in doing that for the next several years.

2023 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Well, here’s my first 2023 NFL Mock Draft and let me just say, the more I dig into this draft class, the more I hate it. I know, hate is a strong word, but it’s appropriate here. I like Bryce Young and CJ Stroud more than the QBs in last year’s class but that’s a pretty low bar. Will Levis and Anthony Richardson seem to be the next two guy on everyone’s list, okay, Levis is better than the rest of them but Richardson? Yikes. And I wouldn’t take Levis until late round one and then only if I’m desperate. Richardson is getting at least one coach and one GM fired if he goes in round one. Can we just skip to the 2024 draft class? Those QBs could be fun.

Bijan Robinson should probably be the third pick after Jalen Carter and Will Anderson. Those are the three truly elite players in the draft but that’s not how these things work. Teams don’t value RBs that highly but they should consider the talent level they are picking from. Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs is probably a top 15 talent too. The TE group is great, which is awesome because the NFL needs some upgrades at that position. There are about seven guys who I would take in the first three rounds and depending on which teams get them, they could all start; Michael Mayer, Darnell Washington, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta, and Luke Schoonmaker.

There are a ton of defensive linemen that will likely end up in round one and early round two. Jalen Carter and Will Anderson are elite players, I’m not convinced about any of the rest of them (seriously, Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson, and Bryan Bresee, I’m not convinced). Even as much as I’ve watched Lukas Van Ness, everything I think he’ll be is still a major projection because he just hasn’t played that much. There are some CBs I like, there are almost no safeties I like, and my favorite LB is Jack Campbell and it’s not just because he’s from Iowa, he’s literally the only sure thing there and MLB just don’t get people excited. This mock draft was difficult because I had a hard time liking 31 players enough to put them in it, thank you Miami for saving me from having to come up with a 32^nd player (scroll down for the explanation). Hopefully the Senior Bowl and some workouts will help me come around on some of these guys, but I’m not getting my hopes up. Here we go.

1. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE from Chicago): Bryce Young QB Alabama

I generally don’t like to project trades and doing it this early is simply foolish but there is almost no chance the Bears hold on to this pick. The gift the Texans handed the Bears with their ridiculous final week win will pay off when the Bears take advantage of the Colts’ desperation to finally solve their QB issues. I’m not convinced Young is going to be a great NFL QB, his size and frame make him a serious outlier in the NFL. He’s under 6’0 tall and will play at less than 200 lbs., that simply doesn’t happen at QB in the league. He’s a great athlete, a true team leader, and effective at leading an offense, but this is big boy football and his physical limitations could hinder him. This pick is a major projection, not just because I’m not sold on Young, but also because the Colts don’t even have a coach yet and I’m not sure GM Chris Ballard would take a QB this small. He may trade up for a QB and it could be CJ Stroud or Will Levis (I’m not sold on them either).

2. Houston Texans (3-13-1): CJ Stroud QB Ohio St.

Lovie Smith’s exiting gift was to hand the Bears the #1 pick and everyone is making a huge deal out of them picking second instead. It may save them from themselves. Like I said, I’m not convinced Young is a future superstar QB and while I’m not convinced Stroud is either, he has a shot to be as good as Young. I like Stroud, he’s as accurate as you could ever want, he can throw every pass you need, and he showed in the game against Georgia that he is a capable runner. He wants to be a pocket passer and in the NFL that’s where you have to win. Mobility and the ability to escape the pocket are great skills that Stroud does possess but he’s ability to hit every throw is far more valuable. The Texans rebuild is going to take some time and they need to give any new QB more help on offense (and their defense isn’t good either) which is why I would advise against trading up. The cost of moving up to get Young instead of taking Stroud is simply not worth it.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): Jalen Carter DL Georgia

The Cardinals are in a weird spot next season. Kyler Murray is likely to miss a major chunk of the season after tearing his ACL late last year. They will have a new head coach, they already hired new GM, JJ Watt is retiring and the roster is aging. It’s time for a hard reset while they wait on Murray to return and they figure out if they can even move forward with him. Given all that, just take the best player in the draft, that’s Jalen Carter. The great news is Carter is a versatile defensive lineman who will fit into any scheme a new coach wants to run and if a year from now you change coaches again (a short-term placeholder coach is a definite possibility here), no problem, Carter will fit into the next new system. Carter is a game wreaker, wherever he lines up. He’s the best player in this draft and he’s a great piece to build your new defense around. He may even be so good up front that he can make your two previous inexplicable first-round LB picks better than they have been, win-win. To new GM Monti Ossenfort, don’t overthink it, take Carter.

4. Chicago Bears (from Indianapolis): Will Anderson Edge Alabama

Bears fans, slow your roll. I’m not sure you’re going to get the king’s ransom you think your going to get for the #1 pick. There simply isn’t a generational QB prospect someone should really sell out for and the San Francisco trade up for Trey Lance two years ago is looking pretty rough at the moment, that’s not helping your cause. Also, while Indy may be desperate, they may also be fine waiting for a QB to fall to four, but whatever they offer, take it. Carolina may be more desperate and offer more picks but take Indy’s pick because it means you will still be in play for either Carter or Anderson. This draft has two elite players; Jalen Carter and Will Anderson. Arizona gets one and the Bears snag the other. Anderson has elite pass rusher written all over him and that’s a major need for the Bears defense. Anderson changes the game and given his versatility he can line up as a DE or an OLB and give Matt Eberflus a nice chess piece.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Myles Murphy DE Clemson

The Seahawks get this pick thanks to the Russell Wilson trade and while some might think they could use this on a QB, that would be unwise. They will re-sign Geno Smith and try to improve their defense, which was not good most of the year. The team has tried for years to find a top pass rusher, drafting Bruce Irvin many years ago and they letting him go and bringing him back. They drafted LJ Collier in round one a few years ago, that’s been a bust. Darrell Taylor, a second-rounder a few years back had a solid year but he’s just solid not spectacular. Murphy has all the tools you want. He has size, speed, athleticism, good hands and he’s versatile up front. Murphy didn’t have elite sack numbers but he had plenty of pressures. The one thing he doesn’t do as well is finish his pass rushes off with the QB sack. He’ll get better as he gets more reps and he should earn plenty of reps in Seattle.

6. Detroit Lions (from the LA Rams): Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon

Gonzalez isn’t the highest profile CB in this draft, Joey Porter Jr. and Kelee Ringo both have higher profiles. However, Gonzalez is the best prospect at the position. He has elite length and athleticism, he’s scheme versatile, and he has years of playing experience. Gonzalez started for two years at Colorado before transferring to Oregon where he was a star. He also got better every year and turned into a playmaker at Oregon with four picks. The Lions have Jeff Okudah who had an up and down year but finally showed some progress in his development, but he’s got one year on his contract left. Amari Oruwariye had a tough year and is a free agent. They like Jerry Jacobs but he lacks experience and probably isn’t a #1 CB. Gonzalez would seriously upgrade their secondary and that’s where they really need help to improve the defense.

7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11): Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio St.

The Raiders will be moving on from Derek Carr but don’t expect this pick to be a QB. The team is built to win now and they will do everything possible to secure a veteran upgrade, whether they succeed or not is to be determined. They will go after Tom Brady in free agency or try to trade for Aaron Rodgers but if neither of those come to pass, they may look at a guy like Jimmy G. Josh McDaniels may be crazy enough to give Jarrett Stidham a shot for the season if he doesn’t find a veteran he really likes. I don’t see him wanting Will Levis or Anthony Richardson at this point. Regardless of who lines up at QB, they have to fix the offensive line, especially the right side. Johnson played LT at Ohio St. last year but he has also played RG so he could transition to RT and start immediately. Johnson has better prototypical size than Peter Skoronski or Broderick Jones which may be the deciding factor here making him the choice over those two. Johnson will need some time to settle in at RT but he’s a massive upgrade over the guys the Raiders played there last year. He also shouldn’t be the last offensive lineman they draft.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech

The Falcons rebuild is a long-term project and while a QB is possible I’m not sure Will Levis moves the needle enough. Desmond Ridder had a solid end to the season when he took over as a starter and giving him the season to see if he’s the future isn’t a bad idea. If he’s terrible the team will be perfectly positioned to draft a QB in 2024 when the draft class looks considerably better at QB. The Falcons’ defense is awful and the future is still in flux with Dean Pees retiring from the defensive coordinator position. Wilson is a long defensive end who can play in an even or odd front (although I think he would be better in an odd front). If the Falcons stick to a 3-4 base defense (highly likely) Wilson is a great fit. He can get home off the edge but he’s actually more effective on his inside rush. He would be a nice foundational piece to a rebuilt Falcons defense and eventually he would make any OLB a more effective edge rusher. The Falcons can afford to wait at QB, this isn’t the draft to reach for a savior at QB.

9. Carolina Panthers (7-10): Will Levis QB Kentucky

If there is one team desperate enough to chase a QB, it’s the Carolina Panthers and owner David Tepper. I actually don’t think this is his only move at QB. He’s going to make a move for a veteran like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or if he’s completely desperate, Derek Carr. That won’t preclude him from drafting Levis if he’s around. Levis shouldn’t be a day-one starter, he should learn from a good veteran. Levis has talent but he needs plenty of work. He has all the physical tools you can want but he makes decisions that will boggle the mind at times. He also has some real inconsistencies delivering the ball. He has elite arm strength but unfortunately, he sometimes trusts it too much and thinks he can fire a ball through multiple defenders which is why his turnover rate is excessive. He has some lower body mechanics to work on and while his throwing motion is compact the set up takes too long, NFL defensive backs will eat him up. He needs a veteran mentor and a good QB coach to fix some issues. The Panthers need a long-term solution at QB, he may be the next Josh Allen, of course he could be the next Jake Locker.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn St.

The Eagles have aging CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry and Bradberry is a free agent this off season. They have a need in the secondary to not only replace these guys now or eventually but also to get some depth. Porter is the son of former Steeler Joey Porter Sr. and he’s a big, physical press-man corner, that should work out just fine in Philly. They need help in the back end more than they need help up front although I wouldn’t be surprised if Howie Roseman wants Bryan Bresee at DT to play next to Jordan Davis, the rest of the DT rotation is aging too. Roseman likes his big guys but I think Porter might be too good and too valuable to pass on here. He steps in as an immediate starter and eventually as the #1 CB, probably sooner rather than later. Porter has elite size and length and should hold his own against the best WRs in the NFL.

11. Tennessee Titans (7-10): Broderick Jones OT Georgia

The Titans are in a weird spot. They don’t have a lot of years of Derrick Henry’s dominance left, Ryan Tannehill needs to be replaced, they need to get younger at some key spots (LT especially) and they aren’t particularly talented on offense. Oh, and Malik Willis doesn’t look like any kind of answer at QB, he was pretty bad last year. Jones is a talented LT starting for the back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs. Taylor Lewan will be 32 this year, he missed a lot of time with an injury, and he’s an obvious salary cap casualty this off season. Jones can step in, start immediately, and give them some consistency they have been missing with Lewan’s injury issues and age. The Titans are a dark horse team for signing Tom Brady (he was teammates with Vrabel) but they probably are more like a Jimmy G team or maybe a Baker Mayfield spot. Either way, upgrades on the offensive line, WR or on defense are all on the table.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Bryan Bresee DT Clemson

The Texans still don’t have a coach so it’s still difficult to see where they might be going but this is a total rebuild and after taking a QB at #2 in this draft, they should just draft talent, they need it everywhere. Best player available should be the mantra for this franchise. Even the few places they have talent (LT, WR, RB) have issues. Laremy Tunsil has a year left on his deal, Brandin Cooks wants out and Dameon Pierce is just one man. Bresee has loads of talent, he has size and skill at DT and he’s got some scheme versatility, not a bad place to start the defensive rebuild.

13. New York Jets (7-10): Peter Skoronski LT Northwestern

The Jets are looking to be good next year. They will move on from Zach Wilson at QB and try to find a veteran. Aaron Rodgers would be the dream scenario while Derek Carr is the more realistic one. Either way, they need help up front. Mekhi Becton is supposed to return from his knee injury at LT but he wasn’t a sure thing before the injury. Skoronski is the anti-Becton, meaning he doesn’t have elite size, or length for the position but he’s as reliable as they come. Some will underrate him because he doesn’t have the arm length teams covet at OT but he’s the most technically proficient guy you’ll find. If Becton does get back and can play that’s fine, this team needs help at RT and on the interior of the line too, Skoronski can play anywhere on the line. He’s an immediate starter and this team is looking to compete next season.

14. New England Patriots (8-9): Quentin Johnson WR TCU

This pick scares me as a Patriots fan. Bill Belichick has the worst track record when it comes to drafting WRs high in the draft. However, with the team needing to find out if Mac Jones is the future at QB, they need talent at WR. Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor are free agents and DeVante Parker should be a cap casualty this off season. Kendrick Bourne has been in Belichick’s doghouse and Tyquan Thornton hasn’t proven a thing. Johnson is a big, lengthy WR at 6’4 with great speed and can get separation. He’s everything Parker was supposed to be but never has been. They still should re-sign Meyers and I would actually be fine if they traded for DeAndre Hopkins and skipped drafting a WR, at least we know Hopkins can be good. It’s also possible Belichick drafts Brian Branch, the safety from Alabama. Seriously, Devin McCourty is probably retiring and Belichick loves Alabama defenders. I wouldn’t complain if he takes Branch either.

15. Green Bay Packers (8-9): Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame

Besides the obvious questions about what happens with Aaron Rodgers the passing offense will be in a state of flux anyway. Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, and Mercedes Lewis are all free agents meaning they don’t really have a TE and they just have some second-year WRs. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could certainly take a step forward next season but this team needs some more weapons. Mayer isn’t some ridiculous athlete like a Jimmy Graham and while he has sometimes been called “baby-Gronk” that’s simply not a real comparison. Mayer is a really impressive overall TE. He is a chain mover as a pass catcher. He isn’t going to kill you going deep down the seam but if it’s 3^rd down, he’s the guy you go to. Mayer has better than average skills at pretty much everything you want in a TE. He’s reliable, tough, willing to do everything you ask, and he’s going to be effective in every facet of the game. Whether it’s Rodgers, Jordan Love, or someone else at QB for the Packers, Mayer makes the offense better.

16. Washington Commanders (8-8-1): Kelee Ringo CB Georgia

It is easy to fall in love with Ringo’s playmaking, his physical skills, and his competitiveness. He’s an elite athlete who has the size to hold up against anyone and the speed to run with anyone. Ringo makes plays in coverage and knows what to do once he creates a turnover. The problem is he relies too heavily on his size and athleticism and can get beat because of his lack of technique at times. He gambles and freelances too much looking for the big play and can be out of position. That could be something that can be coached out of him but it hasn’t been so far. Ringo could be one of the best CBs in the NFL in three years, or he could be trying out for the XFL because he drove his coaches crazy. It’s also possible he ends up moving inside to safety where he can just roam around making plays and not getting beat by WRs who know how to set him up. Ringo has the widest range of outcomes for the CB class, maybe for this entire draft class regardless of position. Washington can bet on his upside to help their defense.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8): Brian Branch DB Alabama

The Steelers need help on the offensive line but there isn’t great value here and they need help on the defensive line but the players here aren’t the best fits for their 3-4 defense. The Steelers don’t tend to reach to fill a need. They also need CB help and Cam Smith from South Carolina would be a solid choice but I think they go a different direction. Branch is a safety/nickel defender who trained under Nick Saban at Alabama at their Star position and he excelled. That’s the same way Minkah Fitzpatrick learned to be as great and as versatile as he is. In today’s pass happy NFL, having two safeties that you can move around in coverage, bring up into the box, have them cover deep, or can line up in the slot or covering a TE, the better. Terrell Edmunds was supposed to be that guy but he’s a free agent and Branch would be an upgrade anyway. Cam Sutton is also a free agent and he’s always been great in the slot, that’s another place Branch helps.

18. Detroit Lions (9-8): Darnell Washington TE Georgia

This is a sneaky spot for RB Bijan Robinson if the Lions aren’t able to re-sign Jamaal Williams. I think they will re-sign Williams but if someone comes in with a major offer they don’t want to match, Robinson would be a nice addition. Instead, the Lions replace TJ Hockenson, who they traded to Minnesota, with a guy who looks like he was designed in a video game. Washington is somewhere around 6’7 270 lbs., runs like a deer, and looks like he was chiseled out of granite. He would have been a far more effective player at Georgia except Georgia had the country’s best TE Brock Bowers to rely on. Washington is basically Gronk when it comes to blocking, he’s a third OT in the run game. He also presents serious matchup problems in the red zone and on third down. He would make the Lions offense even better.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9): Bijan Robinson RB Texas

Robinson is a legitimately a top five talent in this draft and if he goes in the top ten, I won’t be surprised. It’s hard to find a place where someone will value him that highly and it’s even harder with the free agent RB class having Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard and more. Once that sorts out, we will have a better idea who wants Robinson. I think the Buccaneers will let Leonard Fournette go and with Tom Brady likely somewhere else, Robinson comes in as a major new piece to the offense. He’s an elite talent who is not only impressive carrying the ball but he’s really good in the pass game. He runs really good routes, has soft hands, and knows how to get open. He will make life easier on the Bucs new QB (whoever that is) and he can carry the load early.

20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8): Anthony Richardson QB Florida

I can completely see this pick happening and I would absolutely disagree with it. I don’t like Richardson as a first round pick. He’s basically a taller version of Malik Willis from last year, an impressive athlete with a great arm who doesn’t look like a QB, and Willis went in round three. However, this would make some sense in Seattle. I fully expect them to re-sign Geno Smith to a three- or four-year deal. Smith is going to be 33 next year so he’s not the long-term answer. Richardson needs time to develop as a QB and Smith would allow him to do that and be a great mentor for him. Drew Lock is also a free agent and I don’t see him re-signing and the team doesn’t have another QB. It would be a solid environment with an established coaching staff and veteran QB, it might be ideal for Richardson. I’m not totally convinced he’ll ever be an NFL starting QB, if you asked me to bet if he would be a starting QB or a starting TE in four years, I wouldn’t be able to pick. He is an elite athlete, he has a canon for an arm, I’m not sure he understands how to play QB. Some games he looks like the second coming of Cam Newton and other games he looks like it’s the first time he’s ever seen a football.

21. Miami Dolphins (pick FORFEITED because the Dolphins owner tried to sign Tom Brady when he wasn’t actually a free agent and you’re not allowed to do that. Stephen Ross is also currently suspended for this incident)

22. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7): Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to WRs in this draft. They are all very different types of guys. Hyatt is the guy the Chargers offense needs. They have zero deep speed threats. Mike Williams is a big, contested catch X receiver while Keenan Allen is the awesome big-bodied possession guy who likes to play out of the slot. Hyatt is the speedy outside WR who runs go routes and tracks the ball like he’s Willie Mays. Hyatt is very slight, he’s only 6’0 and maybe 185 lbs. That doesn’t matter, the Chargers have size at WR, they need speed. Hyatt will take the top off the defense and give Justin Herbert a guy he can uncork his massive arm for downfield. He will make more room underneath for Allen, Williams and Austin Ekeler to do damage. He will also move safeties back to make the running game more effective, Hyatt can be a force multiplier for the Chargers offense. It’s almost criminal that a team with Justin Herbert at QB doesn’t have an elite deep threat, hello Mr. Hyatt.

23. Baltimore Ravens (10-7): Cam Smith CB South Carolina

Everyone is going to give the Ravens a WR here because they need WR help, however, they have needed WR help for years and they generally don’t focus on it. Normally, I would disagree with that strategy but I’m not a huge fan of this WR group and with Johnson and Hyatt off the board, I really don’t like it. Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are smaller, slot type receivers and that isn’t what the Ravens need. They do have two over 30 CBs who will be free agents (Marcus Peters, Kyle Fuller) along with Daryl Worley, they need help opposite Marlon Humphrey. Smith isn’t the biggest CB but he isn’t undersized, he plays aggressively and that can get him into trouble. However, the Ravens have great safeties to help him out and Smith wouldn’t have to match up with #1 WR because the Ravens have Humphrey. Even if they re-sign Worley, Smith makes a better #2 and that would leave Worley as a backup. The Ravens won’t reach for a WR, there really isn’t an interior offensive lineman to like here and Smith is better than the 3-4 defensive linemen available.

24. Minnesota Vikings (13-4): Drew Sanders LB Arkansas

Drew Sanders was an edge rusher at Alabama who transferred to Arkansas and became an off-the-ball LB last year. He doesn’t have a ton of reps at either position but he still makes plays everywhere. He may be somewhere between Chad Greenway and Anthony Barr as a player and I’m not sure exactly where he ends up. What I do know is the Vikings defense needs as much help as they can get and Sanders is an elite playmaker who makes them better. Eric Kendricks, Jordan Hicks, and Za’Darius Smith are all over 30 and the LB corps needs some younger legs. Also, the secondary (especially CB) needs some help with Patrick Peterson, Chadron Sullivan, Duke Shelley, and Kris Boyd all set for free agency and Andrew Booth Jr. coming off knee surgery. Devon Witherspoon from Illinois is a possibility here but I like Sanders better.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8): Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma

The Jaguars may lose Marvin Jones Jr at WR this year in free agency but they traded for Calvin Ridley at the trade deadline and as long as he gets reinstated from his gambling suspension, that’s an upgrade. They could lose their top three TEs in free agency but I have a feeling they will re-sign Evan Engram considering his connection to Trevor Lawrence this year. Also, this is a deep TE class so they can get one later. At OT Cam Robinson got hurt and Walker Little stepped in at LT, RT Jawaan Taylor is a free agent and I think they can upgrade. Harrison is a bit raw but he’s a great athlete and I think Doug Pederson and that coaching staff can get the best out of him. This team just needs to keep taking steps forward and they are going to be really good.

26. New York Giants (9-7-1): Jordan Addison WR USC

My assumption is that the Giants will re-sign Daniel Jones at QB and Saquon Barkley at RB and then turn their attention to the giant gaping hole at WR. Kenny Golladay is a sunk cost; they should cut him. Sterling Shepard is always injured. Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins (their top three guys right now) are all free agents because no one is giving those guys multi-year contracts. It’s a wasteland and they need help. Jordan Addison probably shouldn’t be a #1 WR but if he was on the Giants right now, he already would be. They have to get Daniel Jones some pass catchers and Addison is one guy who has a chance to maybe turn into a top WR on a team.

27. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama

It may seem like the Cowboys have bigger issues than RB and that’s probably true. I would suggest drafting CB Devon Witherspoon or WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or an offensive lineman. However, if they lose Tony Pollard in free agency, a possibility considering the contract he could get and the money they already have tied up in Ezekiel Elliott, Gibbs would make a lot of sense. Gibbs is an elite athlete with great speed who was the one other player on Alabama’s offense besides Bryce Young who was always consistent. Gibbs has a lot of value as a pass catcher and while he isn’t great in blitz pickup, that’s fine, Elliott excels at that. This would be seen as a luxury pick but if they lose Pollard in free agency, it won’t be. Pollard was the game breaker this year for them and Gibbs could be that going forward.

28. Buffalo Bills (13-3): Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio St.

This pick would be borderline unfair, adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the Bills offense is ridiculous. The Bills are definitely at a place where they can go best player available and it just s happens Smith-Njigba would fit nicely on this team. Isaiah McKenzie didn’t prove to be the playmaker they were hoping in the slot which is why they traded for Nyheim Hines (who’s a free agent after the season) and brought back Cole Beasley (he should probably retire for good). Smith-Njigba would be a master in the slot and become one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets. Gabe Davis also didn’t prove to be as good as they hoped, he lacks consistency. The Bills could address the interior offensive line or the TE spot but Smith-Njigba would be just too good to pass up here and they can address those positions later in the draft.

29. Denver Broncos (from San Francisco): Andrew Vorhees OL USC

The Broncos had a rough year and a lot of that had to do with a bad QB and maybe worse coaching. We don’t know who the new coach will be yet but it’s a good bet they will look to improve the offense. They can start up front. Garrett Bolles broke his leg and missed most of the year and they had several other injuries. Dalton Risner is a free agent they may not bring back. Vorhees has position versatility as a G/T prospect and it shouldn’t matter who the new coach is, Vorhees can fit any scheme. He gives them a potential new OG if they want or he could play RT, another position that could use an upgrade. They can’t afford to replace Russell Wilson for a few years so they should really work on protecting him.

30. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4): Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois

The Bengals are a pretty good team but they do have a couple of places they need help. They could need a safety with both Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III are free agents but unless Brian Branch makes it here, they should wait. Hayden Hurst is a free agent too so TE is a definite possibility. However, the best idea would be to grab Witherspoon, he fills a major need at CB and happens to be arguably the best player left on the board. Eli Apple is a free agent and really isn’t that good anyway and they need an upgrade no matter what. Witherspoon isn’t the biggest or fastest CB but he’s physical and aggressive and won’t back down from anyone. There could be some major turnover in the Bengals secondary and that wouldn’t be the worst thing if they add talent like Witherspoon.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3): Lukas Van Ness DL Iowa

The Eagles defensive front could take some serious losses up front this off season. Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, and Javon Hargrave all have voidable contracts. Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph were in-season depth signings, not long-term investments and Brandon Graham is going to be 35. They need some youth to join Jordan Davis, Milton Williams and Josh Sweat as the future up front. Van Ness didn’t start a game at Iowa but he has been one of the better pass rushers for the Hawkeyes even with limited snaps. He’s a freakish athlete who’s a very well put together at 6’5 270 lbs., his nickname is Hercules for a reason. Philadelphia likes to rotate linemen and Van Ness can play everywhere alone the front. He played more DT at Iowa than DE and yet he should excel rushing off the edge. Van Ness isn’t a household name just yet but Eagles fans will love the way he plays and what he can do for this defense.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3): Dawand Jones OT Ohio St.

The Chiefs’ starting OTs Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie are both free agents at the end of the season and it’s possible neither is back. Brown wants to play LT and get paid like the best LT in the game, he’s not close to the best in the game. However, they may have to pay him because they don’t have many alternatives. If the do, they may not have the money or desire to bring Wylie back. Jones is a ridiculous looking player at almost 6’8 360 lbs. with the longest wingspan you’ll ever see. If the Chiefs bring back Brown and draft Jones it would be a freakish pair of bookend tackles. Jones is often compared to Brown because of his sheer size and he has some of the same issues, lateral movement and fluidity being two of them. Jones should make for a very good RT for someone and that’s something the Chiefs have been trying to lock down since Mitchell Schwartz retired. If they decide to re-sign Wylie and let Brown walk, they would probably go for a different OT here. Jones isn’t a LT so they may look at guys like Mike Bergeron or Jaelyn Duncan instead. Always a good idea to protect Patrick Mahomes.

The End is Near (or it should be)

I’m sitting here looking across the room and I see my autographed Kirk Ferentz football, it says “Go Hawks” and all I can think is, time to “Go Kirk”. Kirk Ferentz has a legacy at Iowa that is well earned but his willful blindness to the problems with his program could undermine that legacy. You would think a man who admitted to his blind spot when it came to the racial issues with his former strength coach would recognize the problems on the field with his offense, but he just can’t admit to another blind spot. Kirk Ferentz has never been one to overreact to a problem, I’m fine with not overreacting, but I’m not fine with not reacting to this abysmal offense. He is wasting an epically great defense and a fantastic special teams group that deserve better.

The issues on offense are numerous and Kirk refuses to even try to address any of them, it’s literally easier to list the things that are good on offense. There are three, TE Sam LaPorta, TE Luke Lachey, and RB Kaleb Johnson, that’s it, that’s where the list of good things ends. The offensive line is young, it is talented, and it has been terrible. Kirk mentioned in his post game press conference after the Illinois loss that he though they made progress last week against Michigan. They did, but most of that “progress” was when they were running the stretch zone to Kaleb Johnson and then they didn’t do that at all against Illinois. I do believe there is talent on the line and their youth and inexperience is the biggest issue but that is on the coaches too. The group is young because the coaches failed over multiple classes to recruit, retain, and develop any offensive linemen that would be upper classmen now. For a coaching staff that prides itself on its offensive line coaching and development, they failed. They also failed to do what every other school in the country seems to do when they miss at a position, use the transfer portal. I’ll get to that in a moment. This is all in addition to the coaching staff’s inability to do anything schematically to help out an offensive line that they admit is young and struggling. I’ll get to the scheme issues too. Iowa’s offense has always been based on the strength of their offensive line, and they just aren’t very good right now.

The bad offensive line play doesn’t absolve QB Spencer Petras of his horrific play. His numbers for the Michigan game looked like a marked improvement but anyone who watched that game knows he padded his stats late against Michigan’s backups who were simply trying to get the game over with. I’m sure Petras is a great guy, I’m sure his teammates love him, and I’m sure he will be a productive man for the rest of his life, but he’s a bad QB. The rest of this team (well the defense, special teams, TEs and Kaleb Johnson, anyway) deserve better from their QB. Perhaps Ferentz and Ferentz (that would be Kirk and Brian) are correct that Petras is better than the other QBs, that’s a scary thought. It’s absolutely frightening to think that the coaches haven’t developed Alex Padilla or Joe Labas to the point that they are any better that what we are witnessing from Petras. It may be true that Petras understands what to do in any give situation better than Padilla or Labas (I would hope that’s true since he’s been in the offense five years and starting for the last three). However, he simply can’t execute what needs to be done, he holds the ball too long too often, and when he has time, he still misses open receivers. Again, there are coaching issues schematically too. Why would any coach, with Spencer Petras as their QB, call a rollout to the left side of the formation and expect Petras to complete a pass going that way when everyone knows he can’t make that pass? Only a play caller who’s in over his head would make that call, and then make that call again a week later.

The WR group is in rough shape, some of that is due to injury, some of that is due to players transferring out, and some of that is because the offense is terrible. They haven’t had Keagan Johnson (with the exception of one game this year) but he wouldn’t cure all that ails this passing game (Jerry Rice couldn’t save this passing game). Brody Brecht was hurt early and hasn’t found his place in this offense, Nico Ragaini was banged up to start the year, Diante Vines is still out with a wrist injury, and the rest of the group isn’t worth mentioning. WRs Charlie Jones, Tyrone Tracy, Calvin Lockett, Quavon Matthews, and Desmond Hutson all transferred from Iowa since the beginning of last year and while only Jones has proven to be a major player in a major conference elsewhere, this left Iowa with absolutely no depth to develop when injuries struck. When other schools have this kind of issue at a position they look to the transfer portal to find guys looking for an opportunity (literally the reason Purdue got two guys from Iowa). The problem is that the coaches rarely look that way and WRs don’t see Iowa’s offense as an opportunity, they’re correct in that assessment. The twenty-year-old offense simply doesn’t attract skill position players and it literally chased off Charlie Jones who left to find a place that would use his talents (beyond being a punt returner).

This leads me to the program wide issues that are becoming quite apparent. Kirk Ferentz not only doesn’t like change, he goes out of his way to avoid it. The problem is that college football has undergone radical changes on the field over the last two decades, and even more radical changes off the field over the last couple of years. The transfer portal and NIL (name, image, and likeness) have changed the way you have to approach players. Conference realignment and expansion are changing the way you have to approach your program. The transfer portal has taken away from Iowa this year but the coaches didn’t use it to get anyone of significance unless you count a backup TE from a Division III school who hasn’t contributed. Clearly, Iowa could have used a QB, some offensive linemen who might be ready to play right away, and a receiver or two or three. The truth is the Hawkeyes could have used an infusion of talent everywhere on offense (okay, they really didn’t need a TE, go figure). Even at RB, the team had Gavin Williams and Leshon Williams but if you haven’t noticed, true freshman Kaleb Johnson is the most talented back they have. Williams and Williams are solid RBs but if a truly special RB wanted to transfer to Iowa last spring, would you have turned them down?

Kirk Ferentz has spent over two decades telling us that Iowa isn’t “sexy” and that we are what we are, but why? College football is changing, why can’t Iowa get in on that change. It isn’t going to get easier in the Big Ten. When the divisions go away Iowa’s path to a Big Ten championship becomes infinitely harder. It’s not about competing with Wisconsin or Minnesota or Purdue for a division title and a shot in the Big Ten Championship game, if you want to compete for a Big Ten Championship you have to compete with Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St. Iowa can do that, it is possible, but the coaching staff has to be willing to be a modern college football program. College football isn’t what it was even two years ago as a sport. There are those who will say “be careful what you wish for”, moving on from a steady coach like Ferentz can go bad quickly, just ask Nebraska. That’s bullshit, that’s a loser’s mentality. If Gary Barta is scared he can’t hire a good coach, he shouldn’t be the guy doing the hiring. There are good men, who are good coaches, who would fit into the Iowa culture and could actually update the offense. Iowa has to decide if it wants to be a 7-5 or 8-4 team at it’s peak or if it wants to compete for the conference title and maybe a playoff spot someday. Hell, there’s going to be 12 playoff spots pretty soon, Iowa’s not getting there with this offense.

So what needs to happen? Brian Ferentz needs to go, that’s the smallest change that has to happen. That probably means Kirk needs to go but there is a way out for him. Stay with me, I know it’s hard to believe. We know Kirk Ferentz isn’t firing his son and we certainly know Gary Barta isn’t firing Brian without Kirk’s blessing even though Barta is technically Brian’s supervisor. That means there’s only one way out for Kirk. Brian Ferentz is a grown man, he’s almost 40, he’s been in the coaching profession for quite a while and in football even longer. Brian has to be the one to step up here. Brian has to rightfully take the bullet for his father’s legacy. In the post Illinois loss press conference when asked about Brian, Kirk said he was a good football coach, and he is, he’s just not an offensive coordinator or quarterbacks coach. Brian needs to walk into Gary Barta’s office, hand him his resignation letter and Barta has to accept it no matter what Kirk wants. Then Barta has to get a little tough with Kirk and tell him, hand over the offense to someone else or start planning for retirement. It is the beginning of the end for Kirk one way or another. Brian is still young enough to go to the NFL as an o-line or TE coach and rehab his reputation. Brian isn’t an offensive coordinator, he’s not a play caller, there’s nothing wrong with that. There are a lot of coaches who are really good who aren’t play callers, there are guys who have become head coaches without being a coordinator. Kirk Ferentz is one, Dabo Swinney has won two National Championships at Clemson and he was really only the OC there for part of a year when he was the interim head coach. Brian can rehab his reputation in the NFL and potentially end up a head coach somewhere five years from now (not here). His career can be salvaged, he needs to save his father’s legacy by walking away.

Finally, Kirk needs to save his legacy. If he can handle Brian walking away he has to pivot to a modern way of playing offense. That doesn’t mean Iowa goes to an air raid offense, that isn’t even what teams are doing these days. The outside zone running that Iowa does is actually quite popular in the NFL these days but teams are approaching it differently. The Shanahan family tree of coaches, which is extensive at this point, has looked to modernize that running attack with more mobile QBs who can use it to their advantage. It isn’t impossible for Iowa to be a run first, hard-nosed defense, great special teams team and actually compete. The offense doesn’t have to be discarded, it has to updated.

The fear is that if Iowa doesn’t change the offense, the good players they do have will transfer, that’s a fact of college football these days. Sam LaPorta is heading to the NFL, Luke Lachey won’t be too far behind him. Iowa has to hold onto guys like Kaleb Johnson, Keagan Johnson, Arland Bruce IV, and even guys like Jaziun Patterson and Brody Brecht (he’s not transferring but he might decide to just stick to baseball if we never throw him a pass). Spencer Petras is a senior (and if he wants to use his Covid year, enjoy whatever Division II school will have you), Alex Padilla probably isn’t the QB of the future if he can’t look better than Petras. Joe Labas deserves a shot if he likes the new coordinator. If not, Iowa can look to the transfer portal and there are always QBs looking for opportunities, but they will only look at Iowa if there’s a new offense in place.

I don’t want to see a sad slow ending to Kirk Ferentz’s career at Iowa, he has done too many good things. However, if he’s not willing to make the changes necessary, name a street after him, put a statue outside the football offices if you have to, but wish him good luck because it’s time to move on.

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