The draft is fast approaching and teams are making their final moves, I hope.  The Bills trading Stefon Diggs was an inevitability but I didn’t see it happening a couple of weeks before the draft.  It puts some pressure on the Bills to find some help at WR, Josh Allen is good but he’s now lost Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir as his top WRs, that’s rough.  We haven’t seen the Vikings make their move up the board yet but we may have to wait until draft day to see if the Patriots like their options at three, if the Cardinals decided they’re willing to move off four, or if it’s the Chargers trading out at five.  Draft boards are taking shape, teams are devising strategies to fill their needs, and it’s almost time to get the show on the road. 

I’m going to have a little fun with this final mock draft.  I made a few big trades up in the first round with teams that have glaring needs.  It threw a wrench into some of the picks and then I threw in a couple of different moves.  I’m not a huge fan of this overall draft class, it’s a little thin.  However, there are some guys I like a lot.  

Round 1

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina):  Caleb Williams     QB     USC

I’m not getting cute here and if you want to know my thoughts on this pick, go back and read my other mock drafts.  Unless Williams pulls an Eli Manning between now and the draft, this one is set.  According to reports, the Commanders made a big offer and Chicago turned them down, they are all in on Caleb.  I think he has a high ceiling as a potential superstar but I do see the scenario where he doesn’t work out.  The Bears have worked to get him help so he’s supported on the field.  The questions are; Will Williams become the player his talent shows he can be or will he be another failed Bears QB? Is Shane Waldron the guy to get the best out of Williams? Only time will tell.  I see the flashes of greatness from Williams but I also recognize the problems in his game. 

2. Washington Commanders (4-13):  Jayden Daniels     QB     LSU

Washington has kept a pretty tight lid on which QB they plan to take with this pick.  I can make the argument for Daniels or Drake Maye and if you want me to work a little harder, I could make the case for JJ McCarthy but it’s not as convincing.  The one aspect I don’t believe I’ve touched on is that this team needs a face of the franchise.  While I firmly believe Maye is the better pro prospect, Daniels is clearly the higher profile player.  Daniels won the Heisman last season, he put up video game like stats, and he’s one of the most athletic QBs ever.  This is a franchise that could use an easy PR win and that can’t be discounted.  It won’t be the reason they take Daniels over Maye but it’s part of the equation when you’re drafting a QB this high. 

3. New England Patriots (4-13):  Drake Maye     QB     North Carolina

I think the Patriots want Maye and they are using the JJ McCarthy hype as a smokescreen in case Maye goes second.  If Maye is off the board here, they will look to trade down and the best thing they can do is create interest from multiple teams.  The Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders all may be looking to move up but they may like different QBs here.  Making each of them think you might take the guy they like creates competition for the pick.  The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett so they don’t have to take a QB if they don’t like their options.  They also don’t have to trade out if they don’t like the offers.  Marvin Harrison Jr. would be an amazing consolation prize if Maye is gone and no teams make a trade offer worth moving down for.  I love Maye, he’s my favorite QB and I think he has elite talent.    

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Marvin Harrison Jr.     WR     Ohio St.

I said this before but it’s worth repeating, the Cardinals have six picks in the top 103 overall.  They do not need to move down to get draft capital, they have draft capital.  They need difference makers so unless someone makes it worth their while, they stay here and take Harrison.  He’s the best WR prospect in a decade at least and they need him.  Unless, Monti Ossenfort believes he can do what he did last season when he traded down and then traded back up to get the guy he wanted, he stays here.  Trying the trade down, trade up move is risky when you’re talking about losing Marvin Harrison Jr.

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE from Chargers):  JJ McCarthy     QB     Michigan

I know, this is the same as my last mock but I just feel like this is the most realistic possibility when it comes to the top five picks.  The Chargers have no reason to stay here unless Jim Harbaugh just loves Malik Nabers and that seems unlikely.  Harbaugh is going to build in the trenches first and foremost.  The Vikings have amassed draft capital to make this move and McCarthy fits their style of play.  He’s the point guard just dishing it out to his playmakers; Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones.  He makes Kevin O’Connell’s offense run and does it at about a tenth of the cost of Kirk Cousins.  Jefferson gets an extension, LT Christian Darrisaw gets and extension, and there’s still money to spend on defense next year. 

6. New York Giants (6-11):  Rome Odunze     WR     Washington

Sorry, my top six picks stay the same.  I think Odunze fits what the Giants need and with all four QBs off the board they just take the WR they need.  Malik Nabers is probably the preferred choice over Odunze by most teams but Odunze is the better fit for the Giants’ WR corps.  They have smaller, fast guys, Odunze is a big fast guy.  He can make Daniel Jones look better if Jones can stay healthy (that’s a big if).  If not, he makes Drew Lock more acceptable.  Odunze, Jaylin Hyatt, and Wan’Dale Robinson isn’t a bad young group of WRs for the Giants next QB to start off with. 

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11):  Joe Alt     OT     Notre Dame

Okay, I’m going back to the Joe Alt to the Titans pick that is everyone’s standard pick in every mock draft everywhere. The Titans have Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Treylon Burks at WR so unless they give up on Burks already, they need an OT before they need Malik Nabers.  It won’t do Will Levis any good to have great WRs if Nicholas Petit-Frere is lining up as his LT.  Alt is a big guy with long arms and all the skills needed to be a Pro Bowl LT.  He’s not the flashiest guy but he’ll be solid as a rock for the next decade at LT. 

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE from Atlanta):  Malik Nabers     WR     LSU

GM Trent Baalke and coach Doug Pederson can’t have another failure like last year.  They wanted Calvin Ridley back to pair with Gabe Davis but he left for Tennessee.  They still need help at WR because they may still cut Zay Jones.  Nabers would be a homerun swing to try to fully unlock Trevor Lawrence.  This would be an expensive trade moving from 17 to 8 but the roster isn’t lacking and they could afford to give up some draft capital.  Also, their biggest need is at CB and while they could draft one at 17 there are more good veteran CBs on the market to sign after the draft who can help than there are WRs who move the needle.  Taking Nabers and signing Stephen Gilmore at CB is far more impactful than signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Terrion Arnold or Nate Wiggins.  They make this move to get ahead of the Bears when they see Nabers fall past the Titans.  This is the first of some fun trades and picks coming up.     

9. Chicago Bears (7-10):  Dallas Turner     Edge      Alabama

The Bears will almost certainly try to move up if Nabers falls past the sixth pick but they don’t have a lot of capital to make it worth it to the Titans to risk losing Alt.  If all the WRs are gone the Bears then have to weigh trading down vs. taking the top edge rusher.  Some of the teams looking to move up might be teams looking to draft that edge rusher (Rams, Bengals).  A team looking for an OT could also look to move up but that’s either teams picking much later in round one (Packers, Chiefs, Ravens) or teams without much to trade (Saints, Dolphins).  If the Bears like Turner as the complement to Montez Sweat, they should just take him here.

10. New York Jets (7-10):  Olu Fashanu     OT     Penn St. 

The Jets signed LT Tyron Smith and traded for RT Morgan Moses but both of those guys are 33 years old and Smith hasn’t played a full season in a long time.  They need depth and talent for the future and Fashanu is too good to pass up.  Keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy is priority one in New York.  While the Jets could also look at WR, it seems unlikely they plan to heavily use a rookie WR given Rodgers’ aversion to them.  They feel like a team that will sign a veteran free agent WR sometime before training camp.  They also still have Allen Lazard on the roster and while he was bad last year, he’s a Rodgers favorite so they may have more plans for him than we know. 

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Minnesota):  Cooper DeJean     CB     Iowa

The first curveball moment in the draft comes here.  DeJean has been the forgotten man after Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold seemed to secure the top two CB spots at the combine, then DeJean’s pro day happened.  His relative athletic score was off the charts and while they may have needs on the offense, defensive back is a big need too.  New defensive coordinator Jesse Minter studied in Baltimore and the Ravens defense likes defensive backs with versatility.  DeJean is as versatile as they come.  He can play any position in the defensive backfield, he can be an outside corner opposite Asante Samuel or play the nickel, or he can pair with Derwin James to be the best safety duo in the league.  Harbaugh throws off everyone’s draft boards. 

12. Denver Broncos (8-9):  Brock Bowers     TE     Georgia

The Broncos need a QB but I don’t see them taking one here and they don’t have the draft capital to move up for one.  This roster also just needs help.  The offense has Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims Jr., you aren’t scaring anyone with that group unless Patrick Mahomes is your QB, and they don’t have a Mahomes.  Bowers is an electric offensive weapon and Sean Payton has been known to figure out how to use those in his career.  Bowers is also simply the best prospect on the board and the Broncos need good players.  Whoever they end up with at QB would greatly appreciate having a guy with Bowers skills at his disposal.

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9):  Quinyon Mitchell     CB     Toledo

The Raiders need help at QB also but they are in a similar spot to the Broncos in the fact they just don’t have the means to move up without mortgaging their entire future.  They stay put and take Mitchell who would seriously upgrade their secondary.  They have Jakorian Bennett penciled in as the starter opposite Jack Jones at CB and it would look a lot better if Mitchell was your CB1 and Jones was your #2.  They could go offensive line but CB is just as big of a need and Mitchell is the type of athlete the Raiders love.  He may be coming from a small school but he’s ready to play right away and he’s got top level talent. 

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8):  Taliese Fuaga    OT    Oregon St. 

The Saints are generally an organization that is hard to pin down when it comes to the draft.  They shouldn’t be this year; they desperately need help on the offensive line.  LT Trevor Penning was so bad last season he got benched.  RT Ryan Ramczyk has a knee injury with a troubling prognosis.  Fuaga should probably play RT or inside at guard but I wouldn’t rule him out at LT if it’s between him and Penning.  They should probably re-sign Andrus Peat regardless of who they draft here but if they don’t, Fuaga could fill the LG spot.  He gives them options and right now they need that on this offensive front.  Derek Carr isn’t great with a good line in front of him, a bad line just compounds the problem.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8):  Terrion Arnold     CB     Alabama

I go back and forth on the Colts needing a CB and maybe wanting a WR but if Arnold falls to this spot, I think it’s an easy choice.  He’s a starting caliber CB on day one and gives them a guy with CB1 upside to play opposite JuJu Brents.  Brents and Arnold would make a nice duo outside with Kenny Moore in the slot.  Arnold has the versatility to play in the slot too which always helps.  WR is a potential need but this draft is much deeper at that position than CB so they wait to find a new deep threat. 

16. Buffalo Bills (TRADE from Seattle):  Brian Thomas     WR     LSU

The Bills lost Gabe Davis in free agency and traded Stefon Diggs; they need WR help.  Luckily for them, they have quite a bit of draft capital in this draft and they picked up capital next year with the Diggs trade.  They have 10 draft picks in this draft and while they have taken some heavy losses at WR and in the secondary, 10 rookies aren’t making this roster.  They need quality, not quantity.  They use some picks to move up and get the fourth WR.  There is a clear top three at WR but Thomas feels like he’s the second tier of WR all by himself.  The Bills need a difference maker and Thomas would be an upgrade over what Gabe Davis gave them before.  He has the size and speed to really open up the offense for Josh Allen and he’s a potential WR1.

17. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE from Jacksonville):  Byron Murphy II     DT     Texas

The Falcons’ defense is in a transition to the Raheem Morris/Jimmy Lake scheme from what Ryan Nielsen was running last year and the front needs some juice.  DTs Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata aren’t getting any younger as both are over 30.  They need so much help at DT they are dusting off Eddie Goldman trying to find bodies.  Murphy is an undersized DT with a great first step and the ability to collapse the pocket.  Morris and Lake coached the Rams last year with Aaron Donald so they should know how best to use Murphy.  They can hope his inside rush presence will make things easier on the edge guys. 

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8):  Jared Verse     DE     Florida St.

The Bengals need some pass rush help opposite Trey Hendrickson and Myles Murphy didn’t do much last year after being their first pick.  Verse has some burst off the edge but he also brings power to the position.  He can finish the play in a couple of ways and has more skill than Murphy.  Verse is a little older and farther along in his development and this team needs someone who can help right away.  They want to compete; Verse would help this defense do that.

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7):  JC Latham     OT     Alabama

The Rams spent big money to keep RG Kevin Dotson and to sign LG Jonah Jackson in free agency.  That moves Steve Avila to center and turns the interior of the Rams line into a power running group.  They still have LT Alaric Jackson, who they like, but RT Rob Havenstein will be 32 this season and it’s the last year of guaranteed money on his contract.  Latham would continue their trend of getting power players up front, he’s a massive road grader at RT.  He could even play some guard this year if he doesn’t unseat Havenstein. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7):  Jackson Powers-Johnson     C     Oregon

This pick just makes too much sense.  This team has to block well up the middle or the offense just won’t run with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields at QB.  Powers-Johnson is a monster inside and his power game will work well in Arthur Smith’s offense where they will rely heavily on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.  He isn’t the most experienced player with only one year as a starting center but the guards are veteran guys who can help him develop. 

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6):  Troy Fautanu     OL     Washington

The starting guards on the Dolphins depth chart going into the draft are Isaiah Wynn and Robert Jones, that’s rough.  Fautanu played tackle at Washington but his best fit is likely inside at guard.  He would be an immediate starter for the Dolphins and he honed his pass protection skills playing in Washington’s high flying passing game so he would fit right in down in Miami.  He also brings the added versatility that if Terron Armstead’s injury concerns persist, he’s a solid choice as a fill in at LT.  Maybe not his ideal spot but he can handle himself if needed. 

22. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Philadelphia):  Amarius Mims     OT     Georgia

The Chiefs see the run on offensive linemen start and decide they have to get ahead of the Chargers and Cowboys or they will miss out on the good OTs.  They make Philly a strong offer to move up for an upgrade at LT.  Mims is really inexperienced with only eight starts in college but the man is 6’8 340 lbs. and is an athletic freak.  He played RT at Georgia but he has all the physical qualities of a LT.  The Chiefs won the Super Bowl with Donovan Smith at LT last year, there is no way Mims growing pains will make him any worse than Smith was and Mims will only get better.  If Mims hits, and under Andy Reid’s tutelage it’s not hard to imagine he would, he has All-Pro potential. 

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Minnesota): Tyler Guyton     OT     Oklahoma

Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz play this just right and end up with the most impactful DB for them, Cooper DeJean, and still get a starting RT. Guyton might not unseat Trey Pipkins immediately because he’s still a work in progress but he will eventually.  Harbaugh won’t ask too much of Guyton early and they will develop him into a starting RT.  Guyton is a little green but he has the size, skill, and athleticism to excel at RT. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Graham Barton     OL     Duke

Barton played LT at Duke for most of his career and it’s possible he could man that spot in a pinch but he’s probably moving inside.  His best position is likely center where his lack of ideal length won’t hinder him.  Just so happens that the Cowboys need a new center or someone to play either LG or LT depending on what they do with Tyler Smith.  Either way, Barton starts somewhere and he’ll be good immediately. This team isn’t trying to build for the future, they need to win now. 

25. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE with Green Bay):  Michael Penix Jr.     QB     Washington

With the top OTs, the top two centers, and the top three CBs (especially Cooper DeJean) off the board, it shouldn’t be hard to convince the Packers to trade out of this spot.  I think the Raiders give up the 44^th pick in this draft and a second rounder next year.  The Raiders make the move up to get Penix to give them an upgrade over Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell.  They make the move to ensure Denver doesn’t do something like give up a first rounder next year to get into the back of the first round to steal Penix. 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8):  Laiatu Latu     Edge    UCLA

The run on offensive linemen pushes Latu down a bit in this mock draft.  That’s good news for the Bucs as they need a legitimate pass rusher and Latu has serious skills.  He’s not the most athletic pass rusher, that’s Dallas Turner, and he’s not the most powerful, that’s Jared Verse. What he is, is the absolute best technician we’ve seen in quite some time.  Most college edge rushers have a move or two they rely heavily on and that’s how they win.  Latu is the most complete edge rusher you will find when it comes to his arsenal of pass rush moves.  His hand fighting is elite and he has moves, counter moves, and counters to his counter moves.  He won’t wow you with his athleticism but he’ll put on a clinic when it comes to pass rush techniques. 

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston):  Nate Wiggins     CB     Clemson

This pick would be a bigger no-brainer than taking Marvin Harrison Jr. earlier.  When your top CB is Sean Murphy-Bunting having Wiggins fall this far is a blessing.  Wiggins is as skinny as they come, he’s 6’2 173 lbs., and that might scare some teams off but beggars can’t be choosers.  Emmanuel Forbes was the skinny CB who got drafted last year by Washington and struggled but it’s unfair to compare Wiggins to Forbes.  Wiggins’ game isn’t like Forbes’ game at all.  Wiggins is willing to play a WR up close and he doesn’t back down.  He will get overpowered in the run game but he covers like a blanket. 

28. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE from Buffalo):  Jer’Zhan Newton     DT     Illinois

The Seahawks trade down twelve spots and still get a guy they would have considered at 16 overall, smart move by GM John Schneider in his first draft without Pete Carroll.  The Seahawks know they need reinforcements on the d-line.  They signed Jonathan Hankins after re-signing Leonard Williams.  The problem is Williams will be 30, Hankins is 32, and Jarran Reed is 31.  They need some young talent and Newton is awesome.  He’s only available because he had foot surgery and there may be some questions about his health.  He’s a monster on the interior when healthy and he’s well worth the risk. 

29. Detroit Lions (12-5):  Kool-Aid McKinstry     CB     Alabama

The Lions traded for Carlton Davis III, signed Amik Robertson, and hope Emmanuel Moseley will be healthy this year, that’s not enough.  If McKinstry is available he’s too good to pass up.  He has a really high upside even if he didn’t quite live up to expectations this last season.  McKinstry has a body of work at Alabama that shows he has top-level skills.  With as bad as things got in the secondary last season for the Lions, they should err on the side of caution.  They lost CJ Gardner-Johnson and had to cut Cam Sutton; more help is needed.  McKinstry might not have the ceiling of a CB1 like people thought going into the season, but he’s still a really good CB. 

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4):  Marshawn Kneeland     Edge     Western Michigan

There has been some buzz about Kneeland moving up into the first round and I think there’s a chance the Ravens take a chance on him.  They need pass rush help.  They re-signed Kyle Van Noy because they are still waiting for Odafe Oweh or David Ojabo to break out and Van Noy gave them some help last year on the edge.  The problem is that he’s 34 and they may need him at ILB with Patrick Queen gone.  Kneeland is a bet on potential.  He shows flashes of great pass rush but he isn’t consistent.  He has some power, knows how to use his hands, and has long arms but he’s still raw.  I suppose if you have three raw pass rush prospects, one of them will hopefully hit. 

31. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from San Francisco):  Ladd McConkey     WR     Georgia

The Chargers traded down to get two first-round picks from Minnesota and now they take a little of their extra draft capital to move back up in to round one to get a third pick and get ahead of teams like Carolina and New England who want WRs.  McConkey would be their replacement for Keenan Allen.  Allen was a savant in the slot and ran routes with precision and accuracy that Justin Herbert loved.  This guy can do the same thing.  He’ll be exceptional at getting open and giving Herbert a target over the middle of the field. 

32. Philadelphia Eagles (TRADE from Kansas City):  Darius Robinson     DL     Missouri

The Eagles made the move down because they got a good deal from Kansas City but I could see them trying to make a move back up to get Jer’Zhan Newton, they have the picks to do it.  But in this mock draft they don’t so they take Darius Robinson.  Robinson is a big DE or a tall, long DT.  They just lost Fletcher Cox to retirement meaning the DT rotation will heavily rely on Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.  Davis isn’t a full-time player and Robinson gives them a versatile piece on the d-line.  He can rotate inside and can also give them a big DE who can play on the edge against the run.  They have some smaller edge guys like Bryce Huff and Nolan Smith so Robinson would be a good complement to those guys.

Round 2

33. Carolina Panthers:  Adonai Mitchell     WR     Texas

The Panthers are trying to help Bryce Young succeed but they need better weapons.  They have Jonathan Mingo, Diontae Johnson, and Adam Thielen, none of those guys are great deep threats.  Mitchell has the ability to get down field and open up the underneath stuff for Johnson to thrive.  Young probably doesn’t have the ideal arm to take total advantage of Mitchell but he adds a dimension the offense doesn’t have right now. 

34. New England Patriots:  Keon Coleman     WR     Florida St.

I’m trying to manifest this pick if the Patriots don’t make a deal for Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk during the draft.  I like Coleman’s upside as a potential #1 WR and one way or another, the Patriots need one of those. 

35. Arizona Cardinals:  Chop Robinson     Edge     Penn St.

The more you watch Chop Robinson the more convinced you become that he shouldn’t be a first-round pick.  He might still make it but he’s just a designated pass rusher and he’s no great at that.  The Cardinals need defensive help and Robinson is the kind of prospect that if he hits, he’s really useful, if not, he’s off the team in three years. 

36. Washington Commanders:  Kingsley Suamataia     LT     BYU

If the Commanders go into the season with Cornelius Lucas at LT, it won’t matter what QB they take second.  Suamataia isn’t a finished product by any means but he has the talent to be a starting LT in the NFL. 

37. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE from LA Chargers):  TJ Tampa     CB     Iowa St.

Charvarius Ward is a good outside CB and Deommodore Lenoir is good in the slot and passable outside. If they can find an outside CB better than Ambry Thomas, they should.  Tampa is a better CB than Thomas and he’s really tough, something that defense will like. 

38. Tennessee Titans:  Bralen Trice     DE     Washington

The Titans need pass rush help and while Trice isn’t the quickest edge rusher he has legitimate pass rush skill.  He also has enough size to play on the end of the Titans three-man front and not be completely overwhelmed. 

39. Carolina Panthers:  Ja’Tavion Sanders     TE     Texas

Sanders is never going to be Travis Kelce; he’s probably not going to approach being Greg Olsen but he’s got a higher ceiling than Tommy Tremble.  Sanders has the ability to be a good middle of the field target, assuming Bryce Young looks that way. 

40. Washington Commanders:  Jordan Morgan     OL     Arizona

If the Commanders draft two offensive linemen with their second round picks it will be among the smartest moves the team has ever made.  Morgan would upgrade the right side of the line at either RG or RT.  

41. Green Bay Packers:  Kiran Amegadjie     OT     Yale

The Packers have Zach Tom at RT but word is they want to move him inside to center to replace Josh Myers, that means they need a new RT.  Assuming Rasheed Wallace is still the LT Amegadjie can play on the right side.  Amegadjie might end up at LT because of his long arms but for now he starts at RT. 

42. Houston Texans:  Zach Frazier     C     West Virginia

The Texans have made a lot of moves to surround CJ Stroud with a good team ready to compete.  They signed a lot of veterans to improve their defense.  On offense they went big with trades for both RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs.  The Diggs trade gives them one final piece to go with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz, and Diggs is a heck of a piece.  I don’t think he’s who he was two or three years ago, but he’s a great second WR to Collins.  Last year they had a number of injuries up front and yet Bobby Slowik made the offense work.  One of those injured guys was Juice Scruggs, their second round pick last year.  Scruggs was supposed to be their center last year before he got hurt, instead he played some guard when he was healthy.  Frazier would be a potential upgrade at center and at the very least he gives them interior depth with Shaq Mason on the wrong side of 30.

43. Atlanta Falcons:  Adisa Isaac     Edge     Penn St.

Isaac isn’t the athlete Chop Robinson is but he might end up the better player.  The Falcons need help rushing the passer and Isaac can give them some help there.  He’s versatile enough to allow them to use multiple fronts and if he and Byron Murphy II can improve the pass rush enough, the holes in the secondary won’t seem so pronounced.

44. Green Bay Packers (TRADE from Las Vegas):  Tyler Nubin     S     Minnesota

The Packers get this pick from the Raiders for the trade up in round one and they grab a safety to pair with Xavier McKinney.  McKinney is a good pickup but he doesn’t solve the whole safety problem, he and Nubin just might. 

45. New Orleans Saints:  Cooper Beebe     OG     Kansas St.

The Saints may have just drafted an entirely new left side of the offensive line with Fuaga in round one and Beebe here.  That wouldn’t be a bad idea.  Beebe has versatility as he’s played both tackle spots and both guard spots and he has practiced at center just in case.  If everything goes wrong at RT, he could fill in there in a pinch.  Fuaga and Beebe together on the left side would be a nice combo. 

46. Indianapolis Colts:  Xavier Leggette     WR     South Carolina

I nearly put Xavier Worthy here as the deep threat the Colts need to help open up the middle for Michael Pittman to work, then I remembered Chris Ballard is their GM and he would never take a guy that small.  Here’s Leggette instead.  He’s only 6’1 but he’s 223 lbs. of pure athleticism who also has legit deep speed.  Sorry Alec Pierce, you’ve been replaced. 

47. New York Giants:  Ennis Rakestraw     CB     Missouri

The Giants have a need for a CB opposite Deonte Banks.  Banks had a nice rookie year but he has little help on the other side.  I’m not a huge fan of Rakestraw considering his lack of production and his lack of size but he’s not a bad pick here.  If he goes round one, that’s a bad pick. 

48. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE from Jacksonville):  Patrick Paul     OT     Houston

Jake Matthews is 32 and somehow Kaleb McGary is already 29 and both guys don’t have any guaranteed money on their deals after this season.  McGary hasn’t been the picture of health and using this extra second round pick from Jacksonville to get a potential future starting OT is a smart move. 

49. Cincinnati Bengals:  T’Vondre Sweat     DT     Texas

Sweat falls a bit because he had a drunk driving arrest just a few weeks before the draft.  The Bengals have never shied away from guys with some questionable personal issues before.  They need to replace DJ Reader at DT and Sweat is the perfect replacement on the field.  Hopefully for him and the team that drafts him the DUI was a one-time stupid mistake and he learned his lesson.   

50. Philadelphia Eagles:  Andru Phillips     CB     Kentucky

Phillips is a little on the small side at 5’11 190 lbs. but he doesn’t play like it.  He’s tough, physical, and not afraid to mix it up. The Eagles need some help at CB and Phillips has the type of toughness their defense needs. 

51. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Xavier Worthy     WR     Texas

I’m sticking with this pick from my last mock draft.  Worthy is a deep speed guy who is the polar opposite body type of George Pickens.  Worthy is short and light but he will go long, all day long, if you want.  This offense needs WRs. 

52. Los Angeles Rams:  Jaden Hicks     S     Washington St

The Rams have overhauled their secondary with veterans Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White at CB and Kamren Curl at safety.  It was a needed an overhaul and Hicks completes it when he pairs with Curl at safety. 

53. Philadelphia Eagles:  Malachi Corley     WR     Western Kentucky

Corley is a big, physical WR who is known for his run-after-the-catch ability.  The Eagles may run into issues with AJ Brown’s contract and getting a guy like Corley would be a nice hedge against losing Brown over a contract dispute. 

54. Cleveland Browns:  Junior Colson     LB     Michigan

They signed Jordan Hicks to be their new MLB but he’s going to be 33 this season and he’s not a long-term solution.  They also signed Devin Bush because they needed help at LB and he’s just a guy.  Colson isn’t a flashy player but he’s tough, steady, and he’s a starting caliber player on day one. 

55. Miami Dolphins:  Bo Nix     QB     Oregon

There are some questions about Tua Tagovailoa’s future in Miami if the Dolphins don’t want to pay top dollar for him.  Nix is a highly accurate QB over the middle with a quick trigger and Mike McDaniel might be able to make him work in his offense.

56. Dallas Cowboys:  Roman Wilson     WR     Michigan

The Cowboys have to get some offensive weapons besides CeeDee Lamb.  They need help at WR and RB and Roman Wilson is better value than any RB in the draft.  Wilson becomes the third receiver behind Lamb and Brandin Cooks and pairs quite nicely as he can play inside or outside. 

57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Mike Sanristil     CB     Michigan

The Buccaneers plan to play Zyon McCollum as Carlton Davis III’s replacement meaning they need a third CB.  Sanristil is undersized at 5’9 but he’s highly athletic and he’s a superstar nickel back.  He has amazing field awareness and despite his size, he’s a tough as can be. 

58. Green Bay Packers:  Edgerrin Cooper     LB     Texas A&M

The Packers depth chart looks pretty solid overall.  They are planning on Isaiah McDuffie to take over one LB spot opposite Quay Walker and they usually play five DBs.  Cooper is a really talented prospect who needs some development but he’s a steal here.  He can team with McDuffie as they should complement each other. 

59. Houston Texans:  Kamari Lassiter     DB     Georgia

Lassiter is a tough prospect because he’s undersized at 5’10 180 lbs. and he ran slow at the combine, 4.61 in the 40.  That’s a bad combination.  There’s just one thing, he’s a good football player.  I don’t think he sticks at CB but he could be a safety prospect for some teams and play a little in the slot.  The Texans have Jimmy Ward and he’s getting older and Lassiter would fit in with the Texans strategy of getting good football players. 

60. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE from Buffalo):  Ja’Lynn Polk     WR     Washington

The Seahawks picked up this pick from Buffalo after trading in round one. Tyler Lockett has no guaranteed money past this season and he’ll be 32 this year, good time to find his replacement.  Polk isn’t as big as DK Metcalf but he’s actually a better contested catch guy than Metcalf has proven to be.  Metcalf can be the deep threat, Jaxson Smith-Njigba is the slot guy, Polk can be the other outside guy. 

61. Detroit Lions:  Troy Franklin     WR     Oregon

This is the Josh Reynolds upgrade.  Franklin is a good after-the-catch guy and he’s a big play waiting to happen.  He would work well with Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot and Jameson Williams as the deep threat opposite him.  Franklin doesn’t get the credit he deserves for just being a playmaker with ball in his hands. 

62. Baltimore Ravens:  Ricky Pearsall     WR     Florida

The Ravens need offensive line help but this isn’t an organization that reaches and the linemen left here are not as good as Pearsall will be at WR.  He’s a guy who just understands how to get open and he’s a good athlete too. 

63. San Franscisco 49ers:  Blake Fisher     OT     Notre Dame

This is a Kyle Shanahan special.  Fisher shouldn’t go this high but he’s a long, lean athletic mover at OT and he’ll do exactly what Shanahan likes.  He could replace Colton McKivitz at RT and kick McKivitz inside.  If it doesn’t happen this year, it would happen eventually.

64. Philadelphia Eagles (TRADE from Kansas City):  Dominick Puni     OG     Kansas

Puni was a Division II player who transferred up to Kansas and looked like he belonged.  He can play guard or tackle and the Eagles could use some depth at both.  He needs to get stronger but his pass blocking is solid and he has length.  He’s an alternative to Tyler Steen at RG this season and maybe an option at RT when Lane Johnson retires, he’ll be 34 this year.   

Post-Free Agency Mock Draft

This is the mock draft that comes after the bulk of free agency has filled holes for teams and changed team needs across the league.  Signings, trades, and cuts have a real effect on what teams will do in the draft.  Atlanta signing Kirk Cousins means they won’t be looking to make a move for a QB in round one.  Conversely, Minnesota losing Cousins and making a trade with Houston to pick up a second first round pick means they are looking to be aggressive to move up to get a QB.  Justin Fields getting traded means Chicago is dialing in on the QB they want at #1 overall.  The Chargers cutting Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen means they will almost certainly use the fifth pick overall on a WR and won’t likely entertain a trade unless it’s an overwhelming offer.  Things are starting to take shape and teams are starting to zero in on what they are going to do in the draft.  Let’s see how things might look now in the draft.  Here we go.

Round 1 

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina):  Caleb Williams     QB     USC

The Bears cleared the deck for their new franchise QB when they shipped Justin Fields to Pittsburgh for a bag of chips and a cookie (it wasn’t even a good bag a chips, it’s the generic kind that no one really wants).  It would be a major upset at this point if the pick isn’t Caleb Williams and unless Washington is willing to throw a bunch of stuff at Chicago to move up from #2 overall so they can get Williams, this pick is a done deal.  The Bears also made a move that has to really piss Fields off, just before they traded him away, they traded for WR Keenan Allen to pair with DJ Moore.  That means Williams will walk into a Shane Waldron-led offense with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and newly signed RB D’Andre Swift as his top weapons.  Fields got Luke Getsy’s offense with guys like Darnell Mooney and D’Onta Foreman for most of his career.  I’m not the biggest Williams fan but he’s walking into a much better environment for success with legitimate top-end NFL WRs and a real offensive coordinator.  If Williams doesn’t work out, it won’t be because the Bears failed him. Williams has to learn to run an offense most of the time while using his otherworldly gifts only some of the time.   

2. Washington Commanders (4-13):  Jayden Daniels     QB     LSU

I’m not a Daniels fan either but no one asked me and the Commanders seem to be trending towards taking the Heisman winner.  Daniels is an explosive athlete with a ton of college experience, he started for five years.  He can throw down the field and he might be the guy to truly unlock Terry McLaurin as a legitimate #1 WR.  Where Daniels struggles is in the intermediate part of the field and I also think his throws lack some velocity that could come back to haunt him against NFL caliber defenders.  He wasn’t a great QB until this last year when he broke out as a fifth-year senior and considering he had Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. as his WRs, seems like he may have been a product of his environment.  Kliff Kingsbury oversees the Commanders offense and that also makes me nervous for his development.  He may fit Kingsbury’s preferred style of QB but so did Kyler Murray and Murray looked better last year in a half of a season away from Kingsbury than he did in his years with him.  Daniels is also reckless with his very skinny body when running the ball and behind a suspect Washington o-line, I worry about his health and safety.   

3. New England Patriots (4-13):  Drake Maye     QB     North Carolina

I like what the Patriots have done in free agency so far but they get an incomplete grade because they haven’t addressed the three top needs they had coming into the off season; QB, LT, and WR.  Not that any of those positions are important at all.  They have helped the depth on offense with WR KJ Osborn, RB Antonio Gibson, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor and QB Jacoby Brissett.  Gibson might be the only one of those guys who can make a difference but the depth means something.  If Osborn means less Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Reagor at WR and Brissett means no Bailey Zappe at QB, that’s a win.  If Drake Maye falls to this spot, I think the Patriots make the pick, if he goes second, they trade out to a team looking for Daniels or JJ McCarthy.  I hope they don’t get sucked into the JJ McCarthy hype.  Maye is the prototypical NFL QB with elite size at 6’4 225 lbs. with a top-shelf arm that can make every throw.  They need to get him more WR help and a LT but the hope is you aren’t picking this high again anytime soon and he’s too good of a QB prospect to pass on.  If Maye isn’t available, answer Minnesota’s calls and move down. 

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Marvin Harrison Jr.     WR     Ohio St. 

The Cardinals are going to be tempted to trade with the Vikings who are looking to move up and have two first round picks in this draft to offer but the Cardinals already have six picks in the first three rounds, they need difference makers, not just bodies.  Harrison is a serious needle mover on the offensive side of the ball especially if you pair him with Kyler Murray.  The Cardinals need playmakers on offense, Marquise Brown signed in Kansas City and they traded Rondale Moore for backup QB Desmond Ridder.  Harrison takes over as the go-to offensive playmaker on the team and if they want to get the best out of Murray, they should get him better weapons than Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch.  They will look to find some defensive difference makers with their later picks, Harrison is too good to pass up. 

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE from LA Chargers):  JJ McCarthy     QB     Michigan

I said the Chargers would need to be overwhelmed, how about two first round picks in this draft (#11 and #23) plus Minnesota’s first next year.  That should be plenty to get Jim Harbaugh to move off the idea of taking a WR with the fifth overall pick.  The Vikings lost Kirk Cousins so they need a plan and I’m pretty sure Sam Darnold is only a stop-gap plan.  McCarthy is well liked by a lot of NFL people and he has potential.  The good news is Darnold will at least make him earn the starting job, and he probably will.  Having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones as his offensive playmakers will make the QB’s job much easier than it would normally be for a rookie QB going this high in the draft.  Having arguably the best WR in football, a top five TE, an emerging second WR, and a veteran RB with elite skills is a situation any QB would like to be in (well I guess not Kirk Cousins).  I actually agree with the Vikings not outbidding Atlanta for Cousins because the savings they will get allows them the opportunity to re-sign Jefferson and LT Christian Darrisaw, and add to their defense.  It’s a smarter team building strategy, now they just have to hit on the QB. 

6. New York Giants (6-11):  Rome Odunze     WR      Washington

The Giants made a major trade on the defense to get Brian Burns to pair off the edge with Kayvon Thibodeaux and that should seriously help the defense.  Then they also addressed their offensive line issues with OT Jermaine Eluemunor, OG Jon Runyan, and even OG Aaron Stinnie.  Stinnie will probably have to hold off Evan Neal who will likely move inside with Eluemunor taking the RT job but that adds interior depth.  Most teams probably have Malik Nabers as the next WR after Harrison, if they don’t have Nabers first, but his game and his body type is too similar to guys the Giants already have like Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton.  Odunze is the big body outside WR who gives them a different dimension in the passing game.  The Giants are going to give Daniel Jones one more chance to be the guy at QB but they also hedged against that bet by signing Drew Lock, who looked decent at the end of last season in Seattle.  Odunze is my favorite player in this draft and his game is going to be elite, once the Giants get a better QB than Daniel Jones.    

7. New York Jets (TRADE from Tennessee):  Malik Nabers     WR     LSU

The Jets have gone out of their way to address the offensive line with legitimate veteran starters in LT Tyron Smith, LG John Simpson, and RT Morgan Moses.  Adding those three to holdovers C Joe Tippmann and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker should solidify the line.  While Smith isn’t the picture of healthy and Moses is aging it means they don’t have to prioritize the offensive line here.  With Nabers falling past the Giants there could be a bidding war to move up to get him.  The Titans signed Calvin Ridley to team with DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks so they can afford to trade down.  The Jets signed Mike Williams to a short-term deal to pair with Garrett Wilson but they still lack much beyond those two and Williams’ health can’t be counted on.  Nabers is an electric playmaker and he and Wilson would be a dynamite pair next year and for years to come.  The team’s defense is good (they even added Hassan Reddick), they addressed offensive line, they have a good RB, if they want Aaron Rodger to succeed, they need more pass catching weapons.  If they want Nabers they have to get ahead of Chicago at nine and possibly ahead of Atlanta at eight. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Quinyon Mitchell     CB     Toledo

If one of the top three WRs were to make it this far I don’t think the Falcons would pass on him even if it means a fourth straight year of drafting a skill position player in the top ten.  However, they did pick up Darnell Mooney in free agency and they traded Desmond Ridder for Rondale Moore so WR isn’t a glaring need like it was pre-free agency.  Even I can admit that and those two aren’t my favorite guys.  The defense left a lot to be desired last year so it’s about time a defender gets drafted.  Quinyon Mitchell probably wasn’t the guy most thought would be the first defender off the board but he’s earned it.  He had a great year at Toledo, then he went to the Senior Bowl and showed he belonged with the big boys.  Finally, he went to the combine and blew the doors off the testing and measured up in every way.  He’s my CB1 for this class and he would make a great running mate for AJ Terrell.  They could go for an edge rusher like Dallas Turner but I think they see the value in a potential lockdown CB over a very good edge rusher. 

9. New Orleans Saints (TRADE from Chicago):  Joe Alt     OT     Notre Dame

The Bears have spent draft capital to pick up Montez Sweat and Keenan Allen and so they trade down to pick up future assets from the Saints, who also don’t have a lot of draft picks but don’t really care.  The Saints blew a first-round pick on Trevor Penning at OT a couple of years ago and now they move up for a better bet, Joe Alt.  Alt takes the starting LT job immediately and fixes a major hole in their offense.  They haven’t been shopping big in free agency because they are always up against it with the cap but if they get a rookie LT salary on the books that would help them overall.  They can look to trade Penning for a late round pick to someone who might want to try to salvage him or they try him at RT where Ryan Ramczyk’s knee injury complicates things.  The Saints have four fifth-round picks and I could see them trading a couple of them to move up here from 14^th overall to get ahead of a few teams that might take these top tackles. 

10. Tennessee Titans (TRADE from NY Jets):  Olu Fashanu     OT     Penn St.

I had the Titans taking a WR in my last mock draft and then they went out and signed Calvin Ridley to a $92 million deal and that changes things considerably.  Assuming they hold on to DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks to go with Ridley, WR isn’t going to be a priority.  The other big news is that the Titans are trading for Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed meaning they have addressed another major need.  Sneed’s contract will be expensive so they should look to save some money at a normally expensive position, like LT.  Fashanu is a beast and he would plug right in at LT which would kick Nicholas Petit-Frere back to the RT spot and with the additions of C Lloyd Cushenberry and OG Saahdiq Charles to go with second-year guard Peter Skoronski, the line should be much improved.  Give new offensive line coach Bill Callahan these guys and he can make the offensive line a strength after it was a huge liability last year.  Will Levis will appreciate it. 

11. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Minnesota):  Brock Bowers     TE     Georgia

The Chargers can’t pass up the trade offer from the Vikings who moved up for a QB so they end up picking here.  It’s still possible they take a WR like Brian Thomas Jr. or maybe they take a RT like Taliese Fuaga but Bowers is very appealing.  Yes, the Chargers signed two TEs in free agency, Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, but this offense is going to be run by Greg Roman.  Roman ran the Ravens offense that featured multiple TE sets and Mark Andrews.  Bowers is an even more dynamic weapon than Andrews was at the time.  The team traded Keenan Allen and cut Mike Williams; they need dynamic offensive weapons.  It would be a travesty for this team to go into the season with Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston as Justin Herbert’s top weapons.  Bowers isn’t a traditional TE.  He’s a guy you can line up anywhere and throw him the ball or hand it off to him and he makes plays.  There are plenty of good WRs in this draft so they can address that spot later, there is only one Brock Bowers.    

12. Denver Broncos (8-9):  Terrion Arnold     CB     Alabama

The Broncos would certainly like to make a move up to get a QB but they just don’t have a lot of draft capital to work with and the Vikings outbid them here.  Sean Payton and George Paton will have to pivot to filling other holes and that’s fine, they have plenty. They need cheap talent because cutting Russell Wilson is costing them the largest dead cap hit ever (literally double the previous high).  They have Patrick Surtain II at one CB, he’s one of the best in the game, he needs a partner.  Arnold broke out this year at Alabama and showed he can play both outside and in the slot, a skill set the Broncos defense could really use.  This pick might come down to choosing between two Alabama defenders and I think they pick Arnold over edge rusher Dallas Turner.  They can’t go wrong either way.    

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9):  Taliese Fuaga      OT     Oregon St. 

The Raiders made a major move on defense signing former Dolphin DT Christian Wilkins.  He’s not as well-known as guys like Aaron Donald or Chris Jones but Wilkins is a difference maker and the Raiders defense needs as many of those as they can get.  They signed QB Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O’Connell and while neither of those guys will stop them from taking a QB if they can, it means they don’t have to reach for one.  The offensive line lost the right side and they need to get at least one starter.  Fuaga can come in and play RT immediately but if the team makes a move for a veteran OT at some point he could also slide inside to guard.  It’s conceivable the Raiders forgo a QB in this draft to build up the offense a little bit better to help a future QB and grabbing a talented o-lineman like Fuaga would be a solid place to start in this draft. 

14. Chicago Bears (TRADE from New Orleans):  Dallas Turner     Edge     Alabama

This would be the ideal scenario for the Bears after taking Caleb Williams first overall.  Trade the ninth pick overall to pick up some draft capital later in this draft or possibly in next year’s draft and still end up with the guy you would probably take at nine if you stay there.  Turner would be an excellent addition opposite Montez Sweat and gives the defense the ability for multiple fronts because of his versatility.  They could go with WR Brian Thomas Jr. but I think they wait on the WR pick, it’s a deeper position than edge rusher. 

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8):  Brian Thomas Jr.     WR     LSU

The Colts are not a team that spends money on outside free agents, they have signed a backup DT Raekwon Davis and a new backup QB Joe Flacco.  They have extended many of their own guys but they are basically counting on Anthony Richardson’s return from his injury to improve this team.  One thing they could do to help Richardson out is give him a legitimate deep threat.  Alec Pierce is a solid player but he’s just not the dynamic playmaker down the field they need.  Brian Thomas Jr. is all of that and more.  With Michael Pittman Jr. signing a big money extension, they have to get a dynamic weapon to play opposite him.  Pittman is a pro’s pro and he’s as steady as they come but he’s not scaring anyone down the field.  Pierce hasn’t developed into that either, Thomas is 6’3 209 lbs. and runs a 4.33 and can put the fear of God in to a defense.  He’s a big play, touchdown machine and he’s a steal here.  They need someone who can allow Richardson to unleash his arm. 

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8):  Troy Fautanu     OL     Washington

The Seahawks have spent most of their free agency addressing the defense with DT Jonathan Hankins, LBs Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson, and safety Rashawn Jenkins being their main additions. On offense, they traded for backup QB Sam Howell, backup TE Pharoah Brown and added some depth on the offensive line.  They need better options on the offensive line.  The interior of the line was decimated in free agency and part of that is because they didn’t want those guys back.  I’m giving them Fautanu because he played at Washington under new OC Ryan Grubb and he offers position versatility.  He can be an immediate starter at OG, the position most teams see him moving to after being an OT in college.  The good thing about that is the team had some issues with OTs Charles Cross and Abe Lucas staying healthy last year and Fautanu would be a guy you can slide outside to cover if you need to.  They have more work to do on the interior of the line but Fautanu would be a good start. 

17. Los Angeles Rams (TRADE from Jacksonville): Byron Murphy II     DT     Texas

The Rams come into this draft with 11 picks overall, they have the ability to move up if they see a reason, Murphy is that reason.  Aaron Donald has been the rock their defense has been built on for years and he just retired.  It’s unfair to compare anyone to Donald or to put the pressure of replacing him on any one guy but Murphy looks the part. He’s an undersized, penetrating DT who just doesn’t quit.  He puts pressure on the pocket and he would be a great addition to a Rams defense that just lost its biggest playmaker.  The Rams use some of their draft capital to move up two spots to get ahead of the Bengals who are probably eyeing Murphy too.  Les Snead isn’t afraid to trade picks away.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8):  Jared Verse     DE     Florida St.

They have made some smart, economical moves in free agency because they just paid Joe Burrow and they have to pay Ja’Marr Chase soon.  Geno Stone and Vonn Bell were smart deals at safety and addressed a huge need for them, now they have to find some impact players on defense if possible.  The only consistent pass rusher on the Bengals has been Trey Hendrickson and even he can be a little up and down from season to season.  He’s also 30 and not getting a lot of help from Sam Hubbard, Myles Murphy, or Joseph Ossai.  Hubbard is a solid player but offenses don’t gameplan against him.  Verse is a twitchy athlete with a quick first step who can convert speed to power and get into the backfield.  He’s not the biggest end at about 255 lbs. but the Bengals have guys to use in the run game, they need someone to use with Hendrickson in the pass game.  He won’t start over Hubbard but he’ll play every passing down and could really change the dynamic of this defense.  They signed Sheldon Rankins because he can rush the passer from the DT spot, Verse would add even more pressure off the edge.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE from LA Rams):  Nate Wiggins     CB     Clemson

 I would fundamentally disagree with Wiggins going before Cooper DeJean in the draft but in this instance the new Jaguars defensive coordinator is Ryan Nielsen.  Last year in Atlanta as the defensive coordinator he predominately used man coverage and that is a Wiggins specialty.  DeJean has more versatility but the Jaguars signed Darnell Savage and they plan to use him in the slot and they signed Devin Duverney as a return man so DeJean’s versatility and special teams value is less valuable to them.  Wiggins is a skinny corner but he’s a top-notch man cover guy and pairing him with Tyson Campbell would mean they don’t have to rely on 30-year-old free agent Ronald Darby to be a full-time starter.  The Jaguars could be smart and take DeJean anyway but I’m not betting on Trent Baalke as the GM making smart decisions.  Signing Arik Armstead at DT and Mitch Morse at center were good moves.  However, Gabe Davis and Devin Duverney at WR, Darnell Savage and Ronald Darby in the secondary, and not signing Josh Allen long-term and having to franchise him, those were not great team building moves.  It would be too bad to because I’m sure Bill Belichick would enjoy coaching DeJean next year when he replaces Baalke and Doug Pederson in Jacksonville.   

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7):  Jackson Powers-Johnson      C     Oregon

The Steelers big moves have come at QB, they signed Russell Wilson to a veteran minimum contract since he’s making big money from Denver, they traded Kenny Pickett to Philadelphia, and then traded for Justin Fields.  They have insisted Russell Wilson is their starter, I say Fields is starting by week four and Wilson gets booed by the Steelers fans in his first home game.  They finally addressed their ILB spot by signing Patrick Queen, he’s a real player they can count on.  The one big cut that hasn’t really registered for people was cutting center Mason Cole.  They didn’t pick up a veteran replacement so they fill that hole with the best prospect here.  Powers-Johnson is a monster in the pivot and they can’t afford to allow pass rush up the middle.  Wilson is short and can’t scramble anymore and Fields will get happy feet if pressed in the pocket.  Powers-Johnson only has one year of starting experience at center but he will have two veteran guards flanking him in Isaac Seumalo and James Daniels. He fills a major need unless you think Nate Herbig is the answer at center.   

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6):  Amarius Mims     OT     Georgia

This team is in salary cap hell and they had to let quite a few guys go in free agency and make some tough cuts.  They replaced most of their defensive losses with cheaper veteran free agents with LB Jordyn Brooks the only guy who cost a little more.  On the offensive line they replaced oft-injured center Connor Williams with Aaron Brewer, Brewer isn’t as good as Williams when Williams is healthy but Williams is rarely healthy.  The interior of the line was a concern before Robert Hunt left and they have to address the line overall.  LT Terron Armstead is coming back next year but he’s injured a lot and they need to have a plan for that.  Mims isn’t a sure thing and he’s inexperienced, however, you can’t teach a guy to be nearly 6’8 340 lbs. and to move like Mims.  He won’t be thrust into starting here unless Armstead or Austin Jackson gets hurt, that would give him time to develop a little.  His presence also allows Liam Eichenberg to stay inside and not have to be used at OT.  Mims has amazing upside if he reaches his potential. If he does have to play, the Dolphins’ offensive scheme will help cover some of his inexperience by making it easier on him.   

22.  Philadelphia Eagles (11-6):  Cooper DeJean     CB     Iowa

The Eagles went big on some of their free agent spending signing RB Saquon Barkley and edge rusher Bryce Huff.  Huff was a part-time player for the Jets but they are expecting more out of him in Philadelphia.  New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is the architect of a defensive scheme being used widely throughout the league and the Eagles decided to go get the originator himself to fix their defensive issues.  While they are transitioning to some younger players up front with Fletcher Cox retiring and trading Hassan Reddick (Huff is his expected replacement), the secondary needs new blood.  The brought back CJ Gardner-Johnson after his year in Detroit but CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are aging and Bradberry was pretty bad last year.  DeJean brings youth and versatility to the backend, two things they could really use.  Fangio’s defenses use multiple looks and DeJean’s ability to line up outside, in the slot, as a safety, or even as a dime LB would be very helpful to Fangio.  DeJean has been overlooked as he’s been rehabbing a broken leg from the season but teams know who he is and he won’t fall too far.  He’s also an elite punt returner and with the new kickoff rules I would experiment with him doing that too.   

23. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Minnesota):  JC Latham     OT     Alabama

This is the second pick the Chargers get from Minnesota in the earlier trade and it couldn’t work out better.  Jim Harbaugh is building a team to be a power running attack led by RB Gus Edwards, Latham takes that to another level.  Latham is almost as wide as he is tall and he’s a road grader in the running game.  He’s a natural RT and he’s a serious upgrade over Trey Pipkins and he’ll bring the toughness and nastiness Harbaugh wants on his offensive line. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Graham Barton     OL     Duke

The Cowboys have taken some hits in free agency as they gear up for having to pay Dak Prescott on an extension, CeeDee Lamb probably looking for a top three WR contract, and having to make Micah Parsons the highest paid defensive player in the league.  That meant losing veterans like LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz in free agency.  They could take a OT like Tyler Guyton to replace Smith but this team is looking to win now and Guyton is still a bit of a project.  Barton played LT at Duke but he is more likely to play center in the NFL and he’s a four-year starter so he steps in on day one.  He also gives them flexibility as he could be a LT, a center, or a guard, and with LG Tyler Smith’s ability to play LG or LT it gives them the ability to find the best five.  I think Barton ends up at center, Tyler Smith at LT, and they find a LG, either later in the draft or a veteran free agent.  If they want Dak and CeeDee to be worth paying, they need to fix the offensive line quickly. 

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8): Tyler Guyton     OT     Oklahoma

The Packers addressed their biggest need in free agency by spending a bundle to sign Xavier McKinney at safety, it was a necessary move considering the safety class in this draft isn’t good.  They don’t have a ton of other glaring needs and the few they could use (LB, another safety, OG) are not picks you make here.  One thing they should address is OT.  The cut David Bakhtiari because he was expensive and always injured and backup Yosh Nijman left for Carolina.  They still have LT Rasheed Walker and RT Zach Tom; they were fine fill-ins last year.  Guyton may need some time to develop and he wouldn’t have to be a starter right away but he gives them competition.  They need help at guard and center and Guyton might be good enough to allow them to slide Tom inside where he might be better suited.  Walker was okay last year but Guyton has more upside as a future LT so that’s a possibility too.  This is a very young offense and Guyton would fit right in as a guy learning on the job. 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8):  Kool-Aid McKinstry     CB     Alabama

Okay, fine, I guess I’ll come off my Chop Robinson pick after the Bucs traded away Carlton Davis to Detroit. They can talk all they want about Zyon McCollum and giving him a chance, they aren’t passing on McKinstry if he’s here.  McKinstry wasn’t as great last season as people thought he would be going into the season but he’s a still a potential day-one starter in the NFL.  He has size, skill, and the confidence to matchup with NFL receivers.  The Bucs were quiet in free agency apart from re-signing their own guys and bringing back Jordan Whitehead at safety.  They are counting on improvement from some young guys on defense along with Baker Mayfield getting even more comfortable with the offense.  It’s a bold strategy for Todd Bowles to bet his job on a team that went 9-8 in a weak division and hoping they just get better.  McKinstry has a higher ceiling than Davis achieved at CB but it’s probably not going to change the team’s outcome all that much. 

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston):  Laiatu Latu     Edge     UCLA

The Cardinals made some unspectacular additions to help out their defense with guys like Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols, and Khyiris Tonga, along with LB Mack Wilson and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting.  None of these players are going to change the fortunes of this defense but they raise the floor.  They need a game changer and Latu has the type of pass rush skill that could make a difference.  With him it’s not about potential, he has the skills right now to be an affective pass rusher.  While he may never be an 18-sack guy in the NFL, he’s a legitimate threat teams will have to deal with.

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6):  Adonai Mitchell     WR     Texas

Things seem to be trending away from Keon Coleman as a first-round pick and while I don’t agree, I can’t ignore it.  The Bills signed Curtis Samuel in free agency but that will hardly fix their issues at WR.  Samuel’s health isn’t he most reliable and his skill set is hardly a replacement for what they lost in Gabe Davis (not that Davis was great).  Davis was their downfield threat who opened things up for Stefon Diggs.  Mitchell is a 6’4 receiver with 4.3 speed who can get downfield and track the ball for the big play.  He would allow Josh Allen the ability to use his exceptional arm and keep the offense moving.  Mitchell also has the upside to become a legitimate #1 WR when Stefon Diggs finally talks his way out of Buffalo (it’s just a matter of time).  It’s possible the Bills pivot to a guy like Chop Robinson as an eventual Von Miller replacement but I think they give Allen a weapon and hedge against Diggs’ issues. 

29. Detroit Lions (12-5):  Chop Robinson     Edge     Penn St. 

The Lions made a couple of moves that will help their defense with the signing of DT DJ Reader and the trade for CB Carlton Davis III.  Reader is a roadblock in the middle of the defensive line and he’ll make life easier for Alim McNeill on the inside.  Davis will be the best CB the team has had since the heyday of Darius Slay.  He’s not some All-Pro but they just need competence to be better.  They cut Cam Sutton after some off-the-field stuff and I’m sure they are hoping for Emmanuel Moseley to get healthy (you’re better off hoping for Power Ball numbers) but there is another way to help their struggling secondary, a better pass rush.  They signed DE Marcus Davenport but being the third team to believe in a guy who has never proven anything is not a great place to be.  If Chop Robinson falls this far, they would be lucky to grab him.  He has an electric first step and he’s an incredible athlete.  Pairing him opposite Aidan Hutchinson might just juice the pass rush enough to make a difference for this defense. 

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4):  Kingsley Suamataia     OT     BYU

The Ravens haven’t done much in free agency except lose some key pieces on the offensive line and in the secondary.  They may be able to cover up some of the losses in the secondary and there are still some veteran free agents there that could help, there is less help on the o-line available.  The team lost OGs John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler in free agency and then traded RT Morgan Moses.  They need to protect Lamar Jackson and new RB Derrick Henry needs some holes to run through so offensive line should take priority.  Suamataia isn’t the most experienced player but he’s got the physical gifts to play RT and potentially be a LT in the future, considering Ronnie Stanley’s injury history, that’s not to be overlooked.  The Ravens need to draft more than one offensive lineman so they might as well start early. 

31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5):  Jordan Morgan     OL     Arizona

The 49ers had some issues on the defensive line at the end of last season so they made some changes.  Arik Armstead was cut for salary cap purposes, they also let Clelin Ferrell, Chase Young, Randy Gregory, and Javon Kinlaw all walk. They traded for DT Maliek Collins and signed Yetur Gross-Matos, Leonard Floyd, and Jordan Elliot.  They hope that gives them steadier production around stars Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave.  The offensive line has some issues that are covered up by Kyle Shanahan’s offense but they should address them.  Jordan Morgan is an experienced LT who possibly projects better to guard but he could hold his own in Shanahan’s offense.  LT Trent Williams is still the best in the business but he’ll be 36 next year.  RT Colton McKivitz isn’t great but is passable under Shanahan.  RG was a trouble spot until Jon Feliciano stepped in, they re-signed him but will he keep playing the way he was?  There are places on this line Morgan could play early and at the very least, he’s great depth. 

32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6):  Jer’Zhan Newton     DT     Illinois

The Chiefs are coming off back-to-back Super Bowls so clearly, they’re doing something right.  They re-signed DT Chris Jones, he’s the straw that stirs the drink on defense and on offense they signed WR Marquise Brown.  I’ve never been a big fan of his but compared to most of the guys they had at WR last year, he’s Jerry Rice.  He gives them a nice complement to Rashee Rice, the only WR they had that was actually good last year.  The two big holes they have now are at LT, where Donovan Smith won’t be asked back, and at CB where they traded away L’Jarius Sneed.  Unfortunately for the Chiefs the good OT have been snatched up in this mock draft so unless they make a move up in the first round, they will have to wait for one or reach for one.  At CB, they have had luck in the middle rounds getting quality players and anyone else right here is also a reach.  They can just look for the best player available and that’s likely Newton.  He’s a penetrating DT who could play next to Chris Jones, give him some snaps off, and simply add depth as a rotational guy for now.  Jones is over 30 so Newton isn’t a bad investment in the future. 

Round 2

33. Carolina Panthers:  Ladd McConkey     WR     Georgia

The Panthers spent way too much money on two new OGs Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt and then they traded for WR Diontae Johnson, clearly, they want to help Bryce Young succeed.  They also brought in several solid veterans on defense to improve a unit that wasn’t very good last season.  As much as the overly expensive OGs and Johnson will help, they shouldn’t be done on offense.  They have Jonathan Mingo, a rookie WR from last year to go with Johnson but another WR would help.  McConkey is a strong, reliable route runner with the ability to play inside and outside and would make a nice addition to Mingo and Johnson and they can mix and match where they line up. They have to support Young as much as possible to find out if he’s worth continuing with or do they have to look for a new QB sooner rather than later.  I have serious doubts about Young’s potential moving forward but the offense last season didn’t do him any favors.  Dave Canales did a good job coordinating an offense last year for a shorter QB in Baker Mayfield but he had actual talent to work with in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and others. McConkey would be another guy to help Young.

34. New England Patriots:  Keon Coleman     WR     Florida St.

I really want the Patriots to use this pick in a deal to get Tee Higgins from Cincinnati but if they don’t, go get Coleman.  I’m hoping he falls out of round one because he has legitimate #1 WR potential and the Patriots and Drake Maye need one. 

35. Arizona Cardinals:  TJ Tampa     CB     Iowa St.

The Cardinals signed Sean Murphy-Bunting but he can only play one CB spot and they need multiple starters.  Tampa has great size and plays a physical style of football; Jonathan Gannon will appreciate him. 

36. Washington Commanders:  Darius Robinson     DE     Missouri

The Commanders signed two former Dallas DEs in Dorace Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr and added Clelin Ferrell too.  Armstrong could be a good pickup but Fowler is going to be 30 and Ferrell has never been much.  This defense needs talent and it doesn’t matter which position.  Robinson is the best defensive player left on the board and he’s well worth this pick.

37. Los Angeles Chargers:  Roman Wilson     WR     Michigan

If the Chargers get Brock Bowers and JC Latham in round one, they walk out winners.  However, they need some help at WR.  Josh Palmer has been inconsistent and he’s in the last year of his contract.  Quentin Johnston had a rough rookie year too.  Wilson is a known commodity to Harbaugh and he would fit right in.  He would give Justin Herbert a legitimate downfield threat.  He’s not the biggest guy but he’s a talented WR. 

38. Tennessee Titans:  T’Vondre Sweat    DT     Texas

The Titans have filled plenty of needs in free agency but the d-line still needs work.  They cut Teair Tart last year and could use a nose tackle to replace him, Sweat is a beast.  At 6’4 366 lbs. he’ll take some focus off Jeffrey Simmons and make his life a lot easier. 

39. Carolina Panthers:  Ja’Tavion Sanders     TE     Texas

If you’re going to try to help Bryce Young, you might as well go all in.  They spent free agent money on the defense, the draft is to build around Young and they need a TE.  Sanders has potential as a very nice safety valve for Young if he can figure out a way to see over the middle. 

40. Washington Commanders:  Xavier Legette     WR     South Carolina

The Commanders got a new QB in round one and while they have Terry McLaurin (an underrated guy) and Jahan Dotson (a guy who needs better QB to help him reach his potential), they need a big guy.  Legette isn’t a classic big WR being only 6’1 but he plays big.  He wins contested catches like a guy who’s 6’4 and he brings serious down the field speed. 

41. Green Bay Packers:  Tyler Nubin     S     Minnesota

The Packers spent a fortune to bring in Xavier McKinney at safety but he only solves half of the problem.  Nubin is my favorite safety prospect in a weak class of safeties.  He can play with McKinney and really help this secondary.

42. Houston Texans:  Troy Franklin     WR     Oregon

The Texans traded out of the first round and this is one of the picks they picked up from Minnesota in that trade.  They addressed many of their issues, especially on defense, in free agency with DE Danielle Hunter, DT Denico Autry, NT Folorunso Fatukasi, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, and CB Jeff Okudah.  They can still address a few issues on offense even after picking up Joe Mixon to be their new star RB.  Nico Collins had a breakout season last year and Tank Dell was right with him until he got hurt.  Unfortunately, at 165 lbs. they may want to consider that Dell might get banged up.  Robert Woods is getting older and they didn’t get much from John Metchie, Noah Brown, or Xavier Hutchinson.  Franklin would be a guy that could help CJ Stroud continue to develop his already impressive game and take a little pressure off Dell and Collins.  Franklin is a deep speed master and that would open up the intermediate passing game and make Mixon’s life a little easier with some lighter boxes to run against. 

43. Atlanta Falcons:  Marshawn Kneeland     DE     Western Michigan

The Falcons’ defense is a work in progress, Quinyon Mitchell helps the coverage but what would really help the coverage is some pass rush.  Lorenzo Carter and Arnold Ebiketie are nice players but they need more.  Kneeland is a small-school guy with some talent and potential, they could do worse.

44. Las Vegas Raiders:  Michael Penix Jr.     QB     Washington

Different spot but the same result as my last mock draft, the Raiders take Penix.  They signed Gardner Minshew which means they don’t have to reach for a starter but if Penix falls this far, they would be crazy to pass on him.  I’m not his biggest fan but he’s better than Aidan O’Connell.

45. New Orleans Saints:  Bo Nix     QB     Oregon

I’m sticking with this pick because it makes sense to me.  Derek Carr wasn’t great last year and when the Saints decide to cut bait on him, they are going to take a big salary cap hit which means a nice young, cheap QB will be good to have around.

46.  Indianapolis Colts:  Ennis Rakestraw     CB     Missouri

Rakestraw is a solid CB prospect with some upside.  They already have JuJu Brents from last year’s draft but they need more help in the secondary.  The Colts don’t seem to want to spend money so they are less likely to pick up one of the veteran CBs left on the market. 

47. New York Giants:  Kamari Lassiter     CB     Georgia

The Giants also need another CB opposite their rookie from last year, Deonte Banks.  Lassiter is a little undersized but he plays smart football and he’s tough.  He can be the outside guy if they need him to be but he has the versatility to play the slot as well. 

48.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  Ricky Pearsall     WR     Florida

This team signed Gabe Davis, now they need a good WR for Trevor Lawrence to use.  Pearsall is gaining a little buzz for being a better athlete than given credit for.  Pearsall can play and Lawrence will love him. 

49. Cincinnati Bengals:  Cooper Beebe     OG     Kansas St.

The Bengals signed Trent Brown to be their RT and they have Orlando Brown Jr. at LT; they might as well continue to build their giant line.  Beebe is 6’4 335 lbs. and he’ll look tiny next to Brown and Brown Jr. 

50. Philadelphia Eagles:  Zach Frazier     C     West Virginia

The Eagles lost Jason Kelce to retirement and while they plan to move Cam Jurgens to center, those plans could change if Frazier is still available here.  He’s a starting center on day one and that means Jurgens stays at RG where he’s already pretty good. 

51. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Xavier Worthy     WR     Texas

No offense to Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins, or Calvin Austin III, but George Pickens needs a real running mate.  Worthy is small but he’s damn fast and he can go deep.  The deep ball might be the only play Russell Wilson still has in him so Pickens and Worthy would be perfect for him, until he’s replaced by Justin Fields.

52. Los Angeles Rams:  Bralen Trice     DE     Washington

The Rams’ defense was better than it should have been last year which is why Raheem Morris got a head coaching job.  They need to give new defensive coordinator Chris Shula more help.  Trice isn’t some amazing athlete but he gives his all every play and he’s a good football player.  He’ll fit right in. 

53. Philadelphia Eagles:  Ja’Lynn Polk     WR     Washington

The team signed DeVante Parker to be their third WR behind AJ Brown and Davonta Smith, as a guy who has watched Parker for a few years in New England, you can do better.  Polk is shorter than Parker but he’s actually the contested catch master that Parker is supposed to be but has never been.  Polk helped make Michael Penix Jr. look good on some bad throws, now he can do it for Jalen Hurts.    

54. Cleveland Browns:  Edgerrin Cooper     LB     Texas A&M

The Browns signed Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush because they needed help at LB.  Hicks will be 33 this year and Bush has bounced around for a reason.  Cooper is a talented guy who needs some discipline and development but he’s perfect for Jim Schwartz to mold into a real player. 

55. Miami Dolphins:  Devontez Walker     WR     North Carolina

The Dolphins have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but not much else at WR.  Hill is 30 and has some off-the-field issues still.  Walker is bigger than both of them and he’s a down the field threat with 4.36 speed.  That would only make him about the fifth fastest guy on the Dolphins but that will have to do.  He will make a nice complement to Waddle once Hill either becomes too expensive or something else takes him off the field. 

56. Dallas Cowboys:  Jonathan Brooks     RB     Texas

I don’t think the Cowboys will go into the season with Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn as their top RBs.  Brooks is a complicated prospect because he’s the best RB in the draft but he tore his ACL in November.  He might not be ready for the start of the year but he’s worth waiting for.  The Cowboys could look for a stop-gap veteran to help out next year on a cheap deal, I hear Ezekiel Elliot is available. 

57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Adisa Isaac     Edge     Penn St. 

They let Shaq Barrett go which leaves them with some uninspiring edge rushers.  Solid players but no difference makers.  Isaac has plenty of work to do but his physical profile gives him a chance to become a legitimate pass rusher. 

58. Green Bay Packers:  Junior Colson     LB     Michigan

The Packers depth chart looks solid after their first two additions so they look for more depth here.  Colson would be a nice hedge against Isaiah McKenzie at LB.  The Packers like McKenzie inside next to Quay Walker but Colson brings a different skill set.  He’s a bit bigger with more stopping power against the run game. 

59. Houston Texans:  Kiran Amegadjie     OT     Yale

The Texans have Laremy Tunsil and Tyus Howard at OT but they don’t have a lot of depth.  Amegadjie is a prospect that needs some time to develop but his athleticism and length are hard to find.  Tunsil will be 30 this year so developing a young tackle isn’t a bad idea. 

60. Buffalo Bills:  Kamren Kitchens     S     Miami

Jordan Poyer signed with Miami and Micah Hyde is still a free agent which leaves Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards at safety for the Bills.  Kitchens isn’t a great athlete and his combine performance hurt his stock but he’s a good football player.  He’s not winning a lot of races in the NFL but he can hit and he can cover deep, he can help a team right away. 

61. Detroit Lions:  Malachi Corley     WR     Western Kentucky

Corley is a big-bodied, run after the catch specialist who would be a nice complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s inside game and Jameson Williams deep speed.  He can play the intermediate area and make some plays after the catch. 

62. Baltimore Ravens:  Mike Sainristil     DB     Michigan

Sainristil is going to be an excellent nickel corner in the NFL with the ability to play some safety and just be a piece in the secondary.  He was awesome at Michigan playing defense in the Baltimore defensive system so this would be an easy transition. 

63. San Francisco 49ers:  Kris Abrams-Draine     CB     Missouri

The 49ers have Charvarius Ward at CB and then the other guys are a bit uneven or injury prone.  I’m not saying Abrams-Draine is the answer but he gives them more options.  He’s a solid player who can make some plays on the ball and create turnovers.  They’ve done worse at the position. 

64. Kansas City Chiefs:  Patrick Paul     OT     Houston

If Paul makes it this far, he’s worth a chance for the Chiefs.  He would be the best LT option they have at the moment and he has serious upside.  He isn’t a finished product by any means but he’s 6’7 333 lbs. and has starter potential and beyond with some good coaching.        

2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

This is my post-combine, pre-free agency mock draft so it’s going to change this next week as teams sign free agents that change their team needs.  Some teams might make trades that affect the way they approach the draft in April and we will get a better sense of what teams are looking to do.  For example, it’s been rumored the Broncos are looking to trade for Sam Howell as an inexpensive option to compete with Jared Stidham at QB and that would mean they aren’t looking to make a move for a QB.

In this draft I’m going to make some trades to see how things might change, how they might fall, and predict how desperate teams are to get they guy they want.  Going into the draft as of now, the Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders are all teams that could move up to draft a QB.  However, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell, and maybe even a guy like Ryan Tannehill could change their approach to moving up.  Here we go.

Round 1

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina):  Caleb Williams     QB     USC

We are squarely in the misinformation era of draft season where everyone is trying to influence things and make people second guess and get nervous.  Rumors about Williams will be rampant, good, and bad.  For now, it looks like Ryan Poles is going to trade Justin Fields, draft Caleb Williams and build his team around his new QB working with a new offensive staff.  The market for Fields has cooled considerably but once free agency clears up some QB questions I think he finds a spot for Fields, if not, he may have to be patient and wait until after the draft and try to get a pick in next year’s draft (that’s unlikely but not impossible).  Williams has his detractors, and I’m not completely sold on him, but the talent is there if Shane Waldron can find a way to harness it.  The Mahomes comps are unfair, Mahomes is one of one, Williams’ upside is elite but his downside is pretty apparent.  If they can’t rein in his undisciplined approach and his freelancing undermines the offense, he’s a bust. 

2. Washington Commanders (4-13):  Jayden Daniels     QB     LSU

The misinformation campaign against Williams will be coming out of Washington as they try to undermine Chicago’s confidence in Caleb so that they can try to move up and draft him without giving up too much.  It’s likely to fail but it’s worth a try, the only way I see the Bears passing on Williams now is if the Commander overwhelm them with a trade offer and unless owner Josh Harris overrules his GM and coach, I don’t think that will happen.  This is a change to Daniels because for some reason team’s still have confidence in Kliff Kingsbury as a coach and now that he’s running their offense, I think he’ll talk them into Daniels over Drake Maye.  Maye ran a spread offense at UNC but Daniels is the more dynamic runner (Maye is an excellent athlete too but Daniels has more explosive traits).  Daniels might get killed if they don’t address their offensive line deficiencies but that’s problem for free agency.  Unfortunately for them, there isn’t anyone left in the organization to remind them that they once took RGIII second overall and his career was derailed by injuries because he was a slightly built running QB who got hurt and was never the same.  Daniels is a dynamic playmaker and an upgrade for them, if he stays healthy.  I think he struggles with certain throws and his velocity isn’t great which could be a problem against NFL defenders but I don’t think Kingsbury will care. 

3. New England Patriots (4-13):  Drake Maye     QB     North Carolina

This would be a dream scenario for me as Maye is my favorite QB in this class.  He’s big, he was  6’4 223 lbs. at the combine.  His athleticism gets dismissed because he’s getting compared to Williams and Daniels but Maye isn’t a statue in the pocket.  He has legitimate running ability and the frame to hold up.  He’s not Josh Allen running guys over but that’s because he’s smart enough to not put himself in harm’s way.  Maye’s confidence in his arm strength and his inconsistent mechanics makes him inaccurate at times which can lead to turnovers but that’s correctable with coaching.  He has two years of starting experience which is helpful and last year he didn’t have a great supporting cast outside of WR Tez Walker for half the season so he’s used to playing with lesser talent around him (that will be the case unless New England does well in free agency and the draft at WR).  He’s the leader the team needs, he’ll bring guys together and he’s not Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe so he’s got that going for him. 

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Marvin Harrison Jr.     WR     Ohio St. 

This couldn’t fall better for the Cardinals with three QBs going 1-2-3 and them being the first team not looking for a new QB.  They plan is to build around Kyler Murray and step one here is a doozy.  Harrison didn’t work out at the combine, he didn’t do media availability either, and it seems like he’s not testing at all for teams.  He made it clear his off-season training is about getting better at football not training to do the testing stuff prospects do.  It doesn’t matter, watch the film, he’s the best WR prospect I’ve ever seen.  He plays inside, he plays outside.  He has great size, he’s an elite route runner, and he knows how to get separation in any situation.  He can walk into a league filled with elite WRs and he’ll be one of them on day one.  Their may be teams trying to trade into this spot to get Harrison or the fourth QB, the Cardinals have to say hell no and just take Harrison, they can’t pass on him. 

5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE from LA Chargers):  JJ McCarthy     QB     Michigan

To put this in context, I think Kirk Cousins signs in Atlanta because Minnesota’s front office doesn’t want to spend $40 million a year on a QB with WR Justin Jefferson and LT Christian Darrisaw coming up for contract extensions.  Once they strike out on the free agent market after that, they have to make a move for QB.  The Chargers want to move down and they pick up Minnesota’s first in 2025 and maybe a third this year.  Minnesota feels they have to get ahead of the Giants at six and outbid the Raiders and Broncos if those teams don’t get free agent QBs.  I fundamentally disagree with taking McCarthy this high, he’s simply not this type of prospect but beauty is in the eye of the beholder (I’m really hoping the Patriots don’t get sucked into the McCarthy hype).  He’s a solid player and with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson (once he’s healthy), McCarthy can be a good player.  I just don’t think he’s worth the trade up or the fifth pick overall.  The Vikings like it because he’s a leader and he’ll be on a rookie contract while they pay Jefferson, Darrisaw, and try to spend to fix the defense. 

6. New York Giants (6-11):  Rome Odunze     WR    Washington

They Giants will seriously consider a QB if one falls here but they won’t make a move to get one.  Daniel Jones has an expensive contract and for now they go with him and try to get him help.  Last year they team went into the season with TE Darren Waller as their top pass catcher and then about 17 slot receivers they tried to shoehorn into different roles.  Odunze is a WR1.  He’s an absolute athletic freak at 6’3, 212 lbs., with 4.45 speed and excellent hands.  He has ridiculous catch radius that made Michael Penix look good every game.  Odunze went to the combine and with Harrison and Malik Nabers sitting out the testing Odunze was the brightest shining star in a group of really great WR performances.  I think he passes Nabers as the second WR because he showed outstanding speed and he’s the bigger player.  The Giants need him because of that size he offers they simply don’t have.  They have a bunch of slot guys and undersized speed guys like Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton.  Waller never stays healthy either and Odunze can be the red zone beast they hoped Waller would be.  This would also give the Giants one more look at Daniel Jones with a legitimate NFL WR1, he’s never had one of those his entire career.  Every year I have a player I absolutely love and this is that guy this year. 

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11):  Malik Nabers     WR     LSU

I’m going against all conventional wisdom here and my own personal beliefs a bit as everyone has the Titans drafting an OT like Joe Alt because their LT situation is awful.  That makes sense except two things, Brian Callahan is the new head coach and when he was in Cincinnati, they drafted Ja’Marr Chase instead of Penei Sewell.  And his new offensive line coach is his dad Bill Callahan, one of the best o-line coaches ever and he works wonders with lesser guys.  Last year Bill was the o-line coach in Cleveland where they had massive injury issues at OT and they never missed a beat because he’s awesome.  They could sign a lesser free agent (maybe former Bengal Jonah Williams) or draft someone later.  At WR, they need desperate help.  DeAndre Hopkins is a good intermediate threat and perhaps Brian Callahan can salvage Treylon Burks as an underneath guy, but they have Will Levis at QB, he has a howitzer for an arm and they have no deep threat.  Enter Nabers.  He’s an electric downfield threat with elite speed and ball tracking skills and he changes the dynamic of the offense, kind of like Ja’Marr Chase did in Cincinnati. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Dallas Turner     Edge     Alabama

If the Falcons sign Kirk Cousins at QB the offense only needs some WRs beyond Drake London to fill out the roster and the offense should be fine.  Brian Thomas Jr, the other WR from LSU is the next top prospect but there is plenty of depth at the position and they don’t have to reach for him here.  They do need to address the defense.  DE Calais Campbell will be 38 and the band-aid known as Bud Dupree didn’t do much for them. Both those guys are free agents, they need pass rush help.  Turner is 6’3 247 lbs. which might make him a little small if he were just a DE but he’s so much more.  He can drop in coverage and play any way you like and at the combine he ran 4.46 in the 40, that plus his other testing numbers showed his athleticism is top-notch.  He’s an underrated pass rusher because he didn’t put up big numbers because he does so many other things well too, he wasn’t asked to just get after the passer.  He would be a great help to the Falcons front seven for new coach Raheem Morris. 

9. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Chicago):  Joe Alt     OT     Notre Dame

First the Chargers traded down from 5^th to 11^th with the Vikings and now they jump up two spots to Chicago’s second pick to get ahead of the Jets to select Joe Alt.  The Chargers have been trying to fix the RT spot for years and now Jim Harbaugh is running things (with new GM Joe Hortiz) and one thing Harbaugh did well at Michigan, build the offensive line.  Alt is a stud LT and whether he moves to RT or they switch Rashawn Slater to the right side, that’s Harbaugh’s decision to make, either way, the tackle situation is fixed.  If they want to run the ball better, they need to be better up front, if they want to protect their Herbert investment, they need to be better up front.  I don’t think Harbaugh will go for the flashy thing like Brock Bowers, I think he builds in the trenches. 

10. New York Jets (7-10):  Olu Fashanu     OT     Penn St.

The Jets are taking an offensive tackle and while the Chargers snake them and take Alt, settling for Fashanu is like settling for a Lamborghini instead of the Ferrari, you’ll be just fine.  The Jets need more than one tackle so they can move Alijah Vera-Tucker back inside but they might get David Bakhtiari if the Packers release him.  Fashanu can play right or left tackle so he gives them options and he’s a beast.  Fashanu has all the physical gifts and athleticism to be an All-Pro he just lacks consistency with his technique and that will come with coaching and reps.  It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he ended up on a team with a veteran guy like Bakhtiari who knows all the techniques and tricks of the trade. 

11. Chicago Bears (TRADE from LA Chargers):  Brian Thomas Jr.     WR     LSU

This would be a serious win for Chicago.  Thomas would be the perfect addition opposite DJ Moore to give Caleb Williams the best chance to succeed.  Thomas is 6’3 209 lbs. with 4.33 speed and the ability go deep on anyone.  He has go-go gadget arms to give him a big target radius and while he does drop the occasional pass, he’s pretty reliable down the field.  He needs work on intermediate routes but DJ Moore is master at that so he wouldn’t be relied on right away for that and he would have great mentor.  Thomas is still raw at a few things but his physical gifts put him way ahead of the curve.  In many years, he could have been the WR1 in the draft, he just happens to be in one of the great WR drafts ever and he also was overshadowed at times by one of those guys who was on his own team. 

12. Denver Broncos (8-9):  Terrion Arnold     CB     Alabama

The Broncos are taking a massive hit this off season with cutting Russell Wilson and taking a massive cap hit.  It’s going to cost them the ability to make some major moves so they need help in the draft and with cheap free agents. I like the idea of them trading for Sam Howell to compete with Stidham at QB whether it happens or not, who knows.  They have been patching together the CB position opposite Patrick Surtain II for a couple of years and unfortunately one thing they may have to consider is trading Surtain just to regain some of the draft capital they gave up in the Wilson deal just to rebuild.  Either way they need CB help and Arnold is very good.  He’s steady, feisty, and versatile, he can play inside and outside.  The team had to make moves like cutting Justin Simmons and trading Jerry Jeudy and more hard decisions could be coming.  I could see them moving Riley Moss to safety to help fill the void of Simmons and drafting Arnold would make that move a little easier even if Moss hasn’t really shown a lot a CB it would hurt their depth moving him to safety. 

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9):  Taliese Fuaga     OT     Oregon St.

The Raiders could reach here for a QB like Michael Penix or Bo Nix but they have Aidan O’Connell who started quite a bit last season and I think they are more likely to look for a veteran or they are the team left without someone who gives up a middle round pick for Justin Fields.  Whatever direction they go at QB they have to get some help up front.  Their center Andre James, RG Greg Van Roten, and RT Jermaine Eluemunor are all free agents.  Fuaga was a guy that many thought might have to move inside in the NFL but he went to the combine and showed the athleticism and movement skills to at least get a chance to be an OT early.  He could end up inside and he would give the Raiders some flexibility to find the best five up front.  He’s a big man who moves very well and he’s going to be a player. 

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8):  Amarius Mims     OT     Georgia

They drafted Trevor Penning a couple of years ago to be their new LT and he was so bad last year they moved LG Andrus Peat outside to tackle.  Peat played fine but he’s a free agent they may not be able to re-sign and if they do, they need him at guard.  RT Ryan Ramczyk will be 30 this year and he’s really expensive so they need to plan for the future at OT.  Mims only started eight games at Georgia but they were pretty impressive.  He’s 6’8 340 lbs. and he moves like a TE.  He’s still so young and very raw but his potential is off the charts.  Someone is going to take a chance on him and the Saints need a guy like him.  They can give him a chance at LT and hope that they can salvage Penning as a RT to replace Ramczyk at some point.  Mims has all the traits you look for in a dominant LT.  The one scary part is in three years he could be an All-Pro LT or he could be starting for a team in the UFL, he has a wide range of outcomes. 

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8):  Quinyon Mitchell     CB     Toledo

There is no reason Mitchell should fall this far other than the fact that so many good QBs, WRs, and OTs are available and so many teams early in this draft need those positions.  Mitchell looks like he was built in a lab to play CB.  He’s 6’0 195 lbs. with long arms, elite speed (4.33), great athletic traits (38 inch vertical) and great ball skills in coverage.  He can play man or zone and he showed great loyalty staying at Toledo when just about anyone else in his situation would have transferred from his MAC school to a power program and made some NIL money.  The Colts drafted JuJu Brents last season and Mitchell gives them a guy who can be the CB1 and let Brents settle in at CB2.  They need help in the secondary and this is a gift in the middle of round one. 

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8):  Brock Bowers     TE     Georgia

Bowers is one of the elite prospects in this draft but it feels like he could fall to the middle of round one because teams higher up have more pressing needs.  The Seahawks take him because they have a pressing need at TE with Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson both being free agents.  They also need to address the gapping hole in the middle of their offensive line with all three interior starters being free agents but Bowers is too good to pass up.  It’s easier to find interior offensive linemen later in the draft and in free agency than it is to find a Brock Bowers.  Bowers isn’t a typical TE, he’s not the biggest body but he’s an uber-athlete with true playmaking ability that will be welcomed in this offense.  He gives them another weapon to go with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.    

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8):  Cooper DeJean     CB     Iowa

The Jaguars need to fill plenty of holes but in the secondary they released CB Darious Williams and safety Rayshawn Jenkins and Tre Herndon is a free agent.  That leaves Tyson Campbell feeling lonely and Cooper DeJean could be just what they need.  He’s a versatile defender who can line up at outside CB opposite Campbell but can also slide inside to cover the slot where Herndon used to play.  He also can play some LB in subpackages and safety if need be.  He’s also a dynamic punt returner and Jamal Agnew is also a free agent.  Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold went to the combine and showed out as athletes while DeJean is still rehabbing from a broken leg and didn’t work out.  Out of sight, out of mind happens a lot around the combine but DeJean will re-emerge once his has his personal workouts in early April, he’s one of the best athletes in this draft, regardless of position. 

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8):  JC Latham     OT     Alabama

The Bengals franchise tagged Tee Higgins and while I don’t think they will sign him long-term I think they did it to bring him back on a one-year deal to give it one more shot with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Higgins on offense.  They can’t afford to pay all of them but for now Chase is still on his rookie deal next season so they have one more shot if they can get Burrow healthy.  Most of the team returns intact but two major holes are at RT, where Jonah Williams is likely to move on, and DT, where DJ Reader is a free agent.  Latham is a plug and play starting RT and that’s what they need.  Byron Murphy II is a good DT but not the big-bodied NT you want to replace Reader and that’s easier to find later in the draft.  Latham didn’t do the testing at the combine but his drill work was good.  He’s huge at 6’6 342 lbs. and he’s got powerful hands.  He moves better than he should for a man his size and he’s surprisingly good in pass sets, something Cincinnati will like. 

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7):  Nate Wiggins     CB     Clemson

If you like tall, skinny CBs who can really cover but can’t tackle at all, here’s your guy.  Wiggins is 6’1 173 lbs. with long arms and elite speed, he ran 4.28 at the combine.  He avoids tackling in the run game like the plague but he can stick to his man as well as just about anyone.  The Rams defense had Ahkello Witherspoon starting at one spot last year and while he’s not an awful tackler, it’s not what he was known for coming out of college either.  Wiggins would upgrade the coverage abilities at CB opposite Cobie Durant and give the Rams a potential CB1.  Wiggins is going to struggle against more powerful WRs and that might be an issue for the Rams considering their division has DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel and may have Marvin Harrison Jr. but at this point it’s either Wiggins or Kool-Aid McKinstry and I’m going with Wiggins. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7):  Troy Fautanu     OL     Washington

The Steelers are a team looking to compete this year and are likely to address some of the bigger holes on the team in free agency.  They are meeting with Russell Wilson to potentially replace Kenny Pickett even if they say he’s just competition.  If Wilson goes elsewhere look for Ryan Tannehill to be an option.  I think they sign a veteran center to replace Mason Cole, I don’t see them taking a rookie on there.  They need another CB but I think the offensive tackle group is better her.  Fautanu isn’t the longest or most athletic prospect still on the board (that’s Tyler Guyton) but Fautanu has more experience, is ready to step in right away, and offers flexibility.  He could be a RT or he could play guard.  He’s probably a better fit assuming the Steelers want to be a run heavy team under Arthur Smith, a pretty solid assumption.  Fautanu is a mauler and he could play RT with Broderick Jones flipping to LT to replace Dan Moore and he has the versatility to slide inside if needed at OG. 

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6):  Tyler Guyton     OT     Oklahoma

The Dolphins have massive holes on the interior of their offensive line, the interior of their defensive line, and in the secondary but if they want to keep the offense humming, they should look to replace Terron Armstead at LT.  Armstead will be 33 next year and hasn’t had a healthy season in a long time.  Guyton is still raw but the Dolphins offensive design can hide some of his flaws while he learns.  They can address the interior of the offensive line later and unless new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver just loves Byron Murphy II at DT, Guyton should be the pick. 

22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6):  Jared Verse     DE     Florida St.

The Eagles love to draft offensive and defensive linemen in the first round, it’s a Howie Roseman staple.  They have given Hassan Reddick permission to seek a trade, they are taking calls on Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham is older than Joe Biden (in NFL years anyway).  Someone has to rush the passer with this very poor secondary behind them.  Verse is really good at a lot of things and not a superstar at anything but he’s going to be a good pro, he could be the next Brandon Graham.  This edge rushing class isn’t great, they looked awesome at the combine because there are some excellent athletes, Verse is one of them.  However, none of these guys are going to be an 18 sack guys any time soon.  Capable, versatile, athletic edge players are great but this is where you want to take these guys in the draft, not near the top 10. 

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Byron Murphy II     DT    Texas

The Texans have this pick from Cleveland and it could be quite valuable if they get a guy as good as Murphy.  They have two important free agents on the defensive line in DE Johnathan Greenard and DT Sheldon Rankins and while they can probably afford both, Greenard is the priority.  Even if they re-sign Rankins too, he’s 30 and they could use a younger guy to grow with Greenard and Will Anderson up front.  Murphy is a quick, penetrating tackle like Rankins and would work well on this line.  He keeps the pressure on from the inside to help free up Greenard and Anderson off the edge.  The Texans’ defense was far better than anyone expected last year, much like the rest of the team, and Murphy would be a wise investment to keep that momentum going.  It doesn’t hurt that GM Nick Caserio comes from New England and head coach DeMeco Ryans comes from San Francisco, two organizations that understand the importance of building a defensive front. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Jackson Powers-Johnson     C     Oregon

The Cowboys have two big free agents on the offensive line in LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz, there is almost zero chance they re-sign Smith as he’s 33 and hasn’t been the picture of healthy lately.  He’s likely to get an expensive one-year deal somewhere else and they can move LG Tyler Smith to LT and be just fine.  Powers-Johnson gives them some flexibility.  If they don’t re-sign Biadasz, he’s the new starting center and they are good to go.  If Biadasz does come back, or they sign a different veteran center, Powers-Johnson just replaces Tyler Smith at LG.  He also happens to be a really good center who is only scratching the surface of his talent as he hasn’t even been an offensive lineman his entire college career.  They have some other needs but offensive line is an expensive thing to replace in free agency and they need to keep replenishing with youth up front. 

25. Baltimore Ravens (TRADE from Green Bay):  Laiatu Latu     Edge     UCLA

The Ravens are a team that has spent some draft capital over the last few years on some highly athletic pass rushers who came with question marks and neither has done much for them.  Odafe Oweh is still underwhelming from a production standpoint and David Ojabo hasn’t shown much after his knee injury before his draft.  They team had to rely on veteran stop-gaps Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy this last season.  They make a move to get ahead of Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Buffalo, all teams that might want pass rushers.  Latu is a solid athlete but is a true technician as a pass rusher.  He brings a different skill set and the Ravens hope he juices the pass rush more than Oweh and Ojabo have.  Green Bay moves down because there isn’t a player they love here. 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8):  Chop Robinson     Edge     Penn St.

This is assuming the Buccaneers re-sign Baker Mayfield (it looks like they have a deal).  He wants to stay, they want him back, it’s a matter of the sides agreeing to a deal and no other team coming in with some ridiculous offer to steal him.  If he leaves, put Michael Penix here because they aren’t turning this team over to Kyle Trask.  I think I’ve had Robinson going to Tampa every mock I’ve done and for the same reasons.  Shaq Barrett is an aging free agent and not nearly as productive as he once was.  Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is a flop, and Anthony Nelson is solid rotation guy but not a difference maker.  They need pass rush help and while Robinson lacks in other areas, he’s got one nasty first step.  He’s super athletic with blazing speed and if Todd Bowles and harness his raw talent, he could make a difference. 

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston):  Kool-Aid McKinstry     CB     Alabama

This pick comes down to the best defensive player left on the board and that’s McKinstry.  It’s probably a race between Jer’Zhan Newton, the DT from Illinois and McKinstry and honestly the Cardinals can’t go wrong either way.  They need defensive help.  The defense wasn’t a total catastrophe most thought it would be last year but the lack of talent on that side will catch up with them at some point. 

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6):  Keon Coleman     WR     Florida St.

I’m going to be the last rider on the “Keon Coleman is going in the first round” train, I just like him.  His 4.6 40 time at the combine may have killed his buzz but I watched him run the gallant drill at that same combine and he ran it faster than every WR, kept his body under control and caught every ball with ease.  He has play speed, the ability to use his size to his advantage on jump balls, and he doesn’t back down from anyone.  The Bills need a guy like him with Gabe Davis being a free agent they shouldn’t re-sign and Stefon Diggs chronically unhappy.  Coleman can complement Diggs’ game or replace him as the WR1 if they decide to move him. 

29. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Detroit):  Kingsley Suamataia     OT     BYU

This is me calling my shot on a trade we don’t see very often any more.  The Chiefs franchise tagged CB L’Jarius Snead, their All-Pro level CB.  They just gave Chris Jones a new huge deal, they want to re-sign Willie Gay Jr and a couple of other free agents, they just don’t have the room for everyone.  The Lions tried the bargain bin shopping at CB last season and it didn’t work, they need a stud and Snead is just that. Detroit gives up this pick and their third rounder for Snead and Kansas City drafts a new LT.  Suamataia isn’t a finished product but the team won a Super Bowl with Donovan Smith last season so they can survive Suamataia’s growing pains.  He’s a cheap alternative for the next five years on his rookie contract and that’s worth it alone.  The Chiefs have done well drafting secondary players in later rounds recently so they will look for Snead’s replacement later, or they go shopping for a veteran CB willing to take a bit of a discount because they are looking to win a Super Bowl.  The veteran CB market isn’t great but it’s probably a safer bet this year than the veteran OT market.  

30. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Green Bay):  Michael Penix Jr.     QB     Washington

This changes if the Raiders sign Russell Wilson but if they strike out on a veteran, they trade their second-round pick (#44) and next year’s first rounder to move up to take Penix.  It’s an expensive trade but they are trying to move up to secure him before someone else moves into one of these last spots to get a QB with the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round pick.  I’m not a Penix fan but I can see some appeal for the Raiders.  He’s a downfield passer who would work well with Devante Adams and he has a higher upside than Aidan O’Connell.  The offense would be fun and they could sell some tickets in Vegas.  Penix is older since he was a sixth-year senior last season so he can start right away.  This would be a very Raiders-like move.  Green Bay trades down twice, picks up some capital in this draft, and grabs the Raiders first round pick next year, that’s a win for them for sure. 

31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5):  Darius Robinson     DE     Missouri

The 49ers are going to have to start making some tough choices because they have a ton of really expensive players and they can’t afford them all for forever.  Arik Armstead is 31 years old and his contract doesn’t have any guarantees after next year.  They already have Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave as expensive pieces.  Robinson is a bit like Armstead in that he can play both inside and outside depending on the situation.  He has excellent size and would be a nice complement to Bosa on the other end.  Robinson hasn’t been a household name but the 49ers know what they are doing on the defensive front and Robinson would be a cheap, talented option they can really use right now. 

32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6):  Adonai Mitchell     WR     Texas

There are going to be a lot of mock drafts that put Mitchell’s teammate Xavier Worthy at this spot because he broke the combine record in the 40 with a time of 4.21; yes, that’s an insane time.  The problem is that while Worthy is ridiculously fast, he’s also 5’11 and 165 lbs. He better be fast.  Mitchell however, is 6’2 205 lbs. and still ran 4.34 in the 40.  Once you’re under 4.4, the difference in speed isn’t overcoming the three inches and 40 lbs. Mitchell has on Worthy.  The Chiefs dumped Marquez Valdes-Scantling because he was expensive and his hands were unreliable.  Mitchell can do everything MVS did, he’ll do it for far less money as a rookie, and he can actually catch the ball.  Mitchell playing with Mahomes is a scary situation for the rest of the league, Mahomes can help Mitchell realize his full potential while Mitchell unleashes Mahomes deep ball to a guy who can do something with it.

Round 2

33. Carolina Panthers (2-15):  Jer’Zhan Newton     DT     Illinois

The Panthers had a disastrous season with Bryce Young being awful, the offense not being competitive, the offensive line taking a huge step back and the defense trying it’s best but failing because it got no help.  Somehow this team doesn’t have a ton of talent yet doesn’t have a ton of cash to spend under the cap.  They can get more money with a Brian Burns extension to get him off the franchise tag number and moving some money around on Taylor Moton’s contract but they need a lot of help. They have a ton of free agents on defense and they just need talent.  Newton is top-level penetrating DT who can disrupt the backfield consistently.  He would help make Brian Burns a more effective pass rusher by being a guy offenses have to worry about.  Burns doesn’t have a great pass rushing teammate and Newton can be that guy.  This team has a long way to go but taking the most talented players is a good start. 

34. New England Patriots:  Jordan Morgan     OT     Arizona

The Patriots have money to spend and should try to keep RT Michael Onwenu and give a decent contract to Kendrick Bourne.  Also, try to sign Calvin Ridley if possible but avoid Marquise Brown or Gabe Davis.  There are plenty of good WRs in this draft if they don’t get Ridley.  Trent Brown can take a hike and while Morgan might be best suited to move inside, I’d give him a try at LT, he can’t be worse than Brown was last year. 

35. Arizona Cardinals:  T’Vondre Sweat     DT     Texas

The Cardinals shouldn’t overthink this, they need talent on defense and Sweat is awesome at his job.  He’s 6’4 366 lbs. and he is the immovable object in the run game.  He makes the edge guys better and the LBs better because teams have to account for him inside. 

36. Washington Commanders:  Graham Barton     OL     Duke

If the Commanders take Jayden Daniels it’s going to be imperative they get help up front.  They have some money to spend on veterans and Barton is a seasoned guy himself.  He also brings positional versatility; his best position is probably going to be center but he can easily play guard and he has the ability to play tackle if needed.

37. Los Angeles Chargers:  Roman Wilson     WR     Michigan

It’s a cheap stunt to give Harbaugh a Wolverine but the Chargers have some tough decisions to make with the salary cap and WR Mike Williams is too expensive for how often he gets hurt.  Wilson is the type of WR the team has needed for years, a speedy downfield threat who can threaten over the top.  He allows Justin Herbert to go down the field.  This won’t be the last Wolverine Harbaugh drafts (there are a ton of them in this draft).

38.  Tennessee Titans:  Patrick Paul     OT     Houston

This is why Tennessee passed on an OT in round one.  Paul is just over 6’7 330 lbs. and he’s pretty raw, but give this raw lump of clay to offensive line guru Bill Callahan and he can be awesome.  Paul is a seriously long, athletic prospect that Callahan will do wonders with. 

39. New York Giants:  Kamari Lassiter     CB     Georgia

The Giants let Adoree Jackson go and they need another CB unless they really believe Tre Hawkins can hold up opposite Deonte Banks.  Lassiter is a more valuable prospect than any of the interior offensive linemen left here, another position they need to address. 

40. Washington Commanders:  TJ Tampa     CB     Iowa St.

While I hate to admit it, Iowa St.’s TJ Tampa is a pretty solid prospect.  The Commanders need help in the secondary and I think new head coach Dan Quinn will like Tampa’s size and demeanor more than the two CBs from Missouri who are a little undersized.  Quinn already has a skinny CB in Emmanual Forbes to deal with, he’ll get the bet out of Tampa. 

41. Green Bay Packers (9-8):  Tyler Nubin    S     Minnesota

The Packers traded down twice in the first round, the second time they moved completely out of the round to pick up Las Vegas’ first rounder next season so this is their first pick.  This team doesn’t have a lot of holes to fill even if they cut David Bakhtiari (which they will to get some cap space).  The one major area of need is safety.  Darnell Savage Jr, Rudy Ford, and Jonathan Owens are all free agents and it’s possible none of them return.  There are plenty of free agent safeties to sign but the Packers probably won’t spend all their cap space to sign two new starting safeties so they draft one here.  They traded out of round one because no safeties were worth a first-round pick.  Nubin is a good prospect and this is the right value for him.  He’s a good athlete who relies more on his instincts and preparation than his physical traits although his length is an asset.  He’s not a man coverage guy but he’s versatile enough to be interchangeable with the other safety to make changing up the defensive alignment easier.  Nubin is exactly what you want in a modern safety. 

42. Minnesota Vikings:  Adisa Isaac     Edge     Penn St.

Also known as the other Penn St. defensive end.  Isaac was overshadowed by Chop Robinson but he’s a good athlete himself with some skill. The Vikings might have to replace Danielle Hunter and DJ Wonnum in free agency and they certainly have to replace Marcus Davenport considering didn’t actually contribute last season and is also a free agent.  Isaac needs some development but he’s the type of player and athlete Brian Flores can use on the edge. 

43. Atlanta Falcons:  Ladd McConkey     WR     Georgia

You don’t have to be the biggest or the fastest WR to be effective in the Sean McVay offense that Zac Robinson will be implementing in Atlanta, just ask Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  McConkey will be the perfect complement to Drake London on a team that desperately needs WR help and Kirk Cousins will pepper him with targets.  Plus, they already love this guy in Georgia. 

44. Green Bay Packers:  Ennis Rakestraw Jr.     CB     Missouri

This is one of the picks the Packers get from the Raiders to move up for Penix. There has been some buzz Rakestraw could be a late first-rounder but with some potential medical questions and some size limitations he falls here.  The Packers need a third corner who can mix and match with Jaire Alexander playing outside or in the slot, Rakestraw should be able to do that.  I really wanted to give the Packers Mike Sanristil from Michigan, he’s the best slot guy left but he’s below their preferred height at CB, he’s only 5’9. 

45. New Orleans Saints:  Bo Nix     QB     Oregon

Anyone who tells you they know what New Orleans is going to do in the draft is lying.  So, if anyone is going to take a shot on Bo Nix, why not the Saints?  New offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak worked for Kyle Shanahan last year so maybe he can make the offense work for Derek Carr, if not, this team doesn’t have many alternatives.  Nix might as well be that guy. 

46. Indianapolis Colts:  Troy Franklin     WR     Oregon

Alec Pierce just hasn’t developed as the downfield threat the Colts need opposite Michael Pittman Jr. They are clearly investing in Pittman to be Anthony Richardson’s top target but they need someone who can take advantage of Richardson’s ridiculous arm strength.  Franklin is a homerun threat down the field and will stretch the defense to help Pittman work the intermediate area and push safeties away from the line to help the running game. 

47. New York Giants:  Cooper Beebe     OG     Kansas St.

The Giants have a big need on the interior of the offensive line.  They could draft an OT and try moving Evan Neal inside but I think they give him one more year to try RT and that means taking Beebe here.  He’s an immediate starter and a massive upgrade at either guard spot and he has versatility to play either side.

48. Atlanta Falcons: Bralen Trice     DE     Washington

The Falcons need help on defense and while a CB would be nice, the value at DE is better. They took Dallas Turner in round one as the speed guy, now they take the power edge in Trice.  He can replace Calais Campbell and give you a power player you need on one side.

49. Cincinnati Bengals:  Ja’Tavion Sanders     TE     Texas

The Bengals haven’t prioritized the TE position in their offense but right now they don’t have a TE under contract and with Tyler Boyd a free agent they need a pass catcher inside.  Sanders is a better prospect than the primary slot receivers left on the board so they take him here and find ways to use him. 

50. Philadelphia Eagles:  Zach Frazier     C/G     West Virginia

This is a reaction to Jason Kelce’s retirement but he’s not his direct replacement necessarily.  They drafted Cam Juergens a couple of years ago and he’s been playing RG next to Kelce, he should slide inside.  However, Frazier gives them options and both Landon Dickerson, the LG, and Juergens, were centers in college who moved to guard.  Howie Roseman loves drafting linemen. 

51. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Mike Sanristil     DB     Michigan

Sanristil won’t fill the CB spot the Steelers need outside opposite Joey Porter Jr. but he’s an excellent nickel player and he feels like a Steelers defender.  He isn’t the biggest player but he’s smart, tough, and versatile and that will work well in this defense.

52. Los Angeles Rams:  Marshawn Kneeland     Edge     Western Michigan

He’s a small-school guy but that won’t bother the Rams, they made their defense out of no-name guys last season surrounding Aaron Donald and it worked well.  Kneeland isn’t a classic edge rusher but his motor never quits and he’ll help take some focus off Byron Young.

53. Philadelphia Eagles:  Ja’Lynn Polk     WR     Washington

I gave Howie Roseman his offensive and defensive linemen so now for something fun. The Eagles have a great WR duo in AJ Brown and Davonta Smith (assuming they can keep Brown happy).  They have no other WRs to speak of.  Polk was a part of the best three-man WR group in college last year, he knows how to share the football and he’s very talented.  Also, he’s really good at catching passes that aren’t perfectly placed, that will make him Jalen Hurts favorite.

54. Cleveland Browns (11-6):  Braden Fiske     DT     Florida St.

The Browns don’t have a first-round pick because they traded it for Deshaun Watson, I think that’s the last time I have to type that sentence.  On offense they need everyone to get healthy, that includes Watson, RB Nick Chubb, and pretty much the entire offensive line.  The defense needs more help.  They lose the three DTs beyond Dalvin Tomlinson on the depth chart so they need some new blood.  Fiske was excellent at Florida St. and he had a good combine, the only problem is he’s a little short when it comes to his arms.  It makes him not ideal so he falls a little, good news for the Browns.  Fiske would be a great complement to Tomlinson, who is a big, powerful run-stuffer in the middle.  Fiske is the quick, penetrating tackle type who would take a little focus off of Myles Garrett in the pass rush and give the defensive line a different skill set. 

55. Miami Dolphins: Ruke Orhorhoro     DT     Clemson

I know I should put Xavier Worthy here but it’s just too easy.  Both DTs Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis are free agents and even if they get one or both back, they need a rotational piece at least.  Orhorhoro isn’t well-known outside the scouting world but he’s an ascending player.

56. Dallas Cowboys: Xavier Worthy    WR     Texas

The Cowboys need to do some work to open up some cap space and that might mean Brandin Cooks and/or Michael Gallup don’t return.  CeeDee Lamb needs someone to take some focus away.  I’m not a huge Worthy fan, his lack of size scares me, but his speed will scare defenses. And don’t give me the Tank Dell was small too, Worthy is a different player, he doesn’t win the way Dell does. 

57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Jonathan Brooks     RB     Texas

This would be the latest the first RB comes off the board ever, I think.  In 2014, Bishop Sankey went 54^th. Brooks is the best RB in this class but he’s coming off an ACL tear.  This is a gamble for the Bucs but if they want an upgrade as a ball carrier over Rachaad White, this is their best bet. White is a great pass catcher, he’s not a great runner. Brooks is.    

58. Green Bay Packers: Junior Colson     LB     Michigan

The Packers’ defense is making some schematic changes with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry and that means they need different LBs.  Quay Walker is good to go but they may move on from De’Vondre Campbell and Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, and Preston Smith will be playing mostly DE.  Colson gives Walker a running mate and gives the Packers defense some options at LB. 

59. Houston Texans:  Edgerrin Cooper     LB     Texas A&M

Cooper is a fast, athletic LB who needs some coaching to break him of his bad habit of guessing wrong and taking bad steps.  DeMeco Ryans was a stud at LB and he will be an excellent coach for Cooper.  With Blake Cashman and Denzel Perryman free agents, the Texans need some bodies at LB.

60. Buffalo Bills:  Cole Bishop     S     Utah

The Bills cut Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is a free agent leaving Taylor Rapp all alone at safety.  There are a lot of free agent safeties but the Bills don’t have much money to spend.  Bishop is smart, athletic, and comes from Utah where they know how to play defense.

61. Detroit Lions: Jalen McMillan     WR     Washington

The Lions still have hope Jameson Williams will become the deep threat they drafted him to be.  With Amon-Ra St. Brown being the underneath slot guy, they need an upgrade in the intermediate area over Josh Reynolds, hello Jalen McMillen.  McMillan did a lot of his damage from the slot at Washington but that’s because he played with Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.  He can be more than a slot guy and he would work well with St. Brown.    

62. Baltimore Ravens:  Kira Amegadjie     OT     Yale

The Ravens have some interior offensive line needs but Ronnie Stanley isn’t the picture of health at LT and Morgan Moses isn’t getting younger at RT.  Amegadjie is light on his feet, has incredibly long arms, and would be a great developmental OT.  The Ravens see value here.

63. San Francisco 49ers:  Malachi Corley     WR    Western Kentucky

The 49ers can’t afford to pay everyone and Brandon Aiyuk is in the last year of his contract.  Corley is known as the YAC (yards after catch) king and he goes to the team that loves YAC kings and is full of them.  Perfect match for the system.

64. Kansas City Chiefs:  Andru Phillips     CB     Kentucky

Phillips can play in a variety of systems and he’s a physical CB so the Chiefs can work with that.  If they do trade Snead, they will need someone to add depth behind Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.          

2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 (if you count the mocking draft)

This is my attempt at a mock draft coming after the Senior Bowl (and Shrine Bowl for that matter) and before the NFL Combine makes everyone start changing their mind because guys look awesomely athletic in shorts and tank tops.  The Senior Bowl had some standouts like CB Quinyon Mitchell and WR Roman Wilson and while Mitchell locked down his first-round grade and Wilson likely made himself some second-round money, not too much changed.  Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix were the big names at QB and while they were fine, they didn’t change their trajectories at all.  Texas DT T’Vondre Sweat was a standout on the defensive line but he’s a specific type of player, a giant interior presence, which limits his NFL fits.  Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson was awesome, he’s about as wide as he is tall and he’s a beast.  DE Darius Robinson from Missouri probably vaulted himself up the board the most and he’s now a likely first round pick and will have a chance to move up in the round as this process moves forward.

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina):  Caleb Williams     QB     USC

For now, I’m going to assume the Bears trade Justin Fields and draft Caleb Williams, it’s the most logical conclusion to draw at this point.  Resetting at QB gives them time to build around him and resets the rookie QB contract advantage for them.  I can’t say I’m in favor of this move, I think Fields was making strides and while Williams is a huge talent, nothing is guaranteed.  Williams has physical gifts you can’t teach, that we know for sure.  His improvisation skills and off platform throws are incredible, however, in the NFL, your QB must be able to win from the pocket.  Williams has a tendency to bail out of a situation quickly and go hero ball without letting the play develop.  That works against college defenses quite a bit, it doesn’t work as well against NFL defenses.  The Bears could auction this pick off for a quite a return if they don’t want to move on from Fields or trade down one spot with Washington if they prefer Drake Maye.  The Commanders would love to get their hands on Williams.

2. Washington Commanders (4-13):  Drake Maye     QB     North Carolina

The Commanders have a new owner, they just hired Dan Quinn as their new head coach, they have a new offensive coordinator, and now they need a new QB. They would love to get Caleb Williams since he is originally from the area.  Since he goes first here, they take Drake Maye.  Maye is my favorite QB and depending on how things go with Kliff Kingsbury calling the offense, this has the potential to be a good offense quickly.  They have talent at the skill positions; WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, RB Brian Robinson, and TE Logan Thomas.  They need to get help on the offensive line but this is a good offensive line draft so they can address that later.  Maye is a big, athletic QB who doesn’t improvise like Williams but he’s excellent in the pocket and he uses his athleticism to get yards on the ground when he needs to. 

3. New England Patriots (4-13):  Marvin Harrison Jr.     WR     Ohio St. 

The Patriots have so many needs on the offensive side of the ball they could take Harrison, they could take QB Jayden Daniels, they could take OT Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt, and I could justify them all.  If Bill Belichick was still the coach, I would say don’t take Harrison because he would be cursed with the Belichick WR draft curse, that’s not a problem any more.  Take the generational WR and start over on offense.  I like Daniels but not enough to take him over Harrison, this is the best WR prospect I’ve ever seen.  The Patriots will either find a QB later in the draft or grab a veteran free agent and wait for a QB next year (next year’s QB draft class has some good potential).  Harrison and DeMario Douglas would be a nice start to rebuilding a WR corps that has sucked since the days of Randy Moss and Wes Welker (apologies to Julian Edelman but one man does not make a WR corps). 

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13):  Malik Nabers     WR     LSU

The Cardinals absolutely need to address their defensive needs which span the entire defense, however, at this point there aren’t a lot of defensive players worth this pick.  If Marvin Harrison Jr. goes before this pick they should look long and hard at trading back and picking up draft capital.  If they can’t find a deal they like, Nabers is a great option.  He’s not in the class of Harrison, no one is, but he’s an elite playmaker and Marquise Brown is a free agent at WR.  Nabers would give them a great alternative to Brown and probably a more consistent performer.  Nabers is a deep threat WR with electric speed and game changing ability.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12):  Brock Bowers     TE     Georgia

Now that the Chargers have a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh it’s a little easier understanding where they might go in the draft.  I can make a very compelling argument they should take an OT to play opposite Rashawn Slater but I think Harbaugh will figure that piece out later.  Harbaugh had some really impressive TEs at Michigan and he really knows how to use them in his offense, there isn’t a more impressive TE than Brock Bowers.  Bowers is more than a TE, he’s an offensive weapon you can deploy all over the field.  At Georgia, he ran routes inside and out and he ran the ball on end arounds and other plays.  Gerald Everett is a free agent and Bowers would be a serious upgrade and take a l of pressure off the other pass catchers. 

6. New York Giants (6-11):  Jayden Daniels     QB     LSU

The Giants still have Daniel Jones but last season wasn’t going well even before Jones got hurt and while they owe him a lot of money it may be time to move on if they have a shot at a new QB like Daniels.  Daniels had an incredible year at LSU both passing and rushing the ball and won the Heisman.  He’s an elite athlete who has a ton of starting experience in college after starting three years at Arizona St. before transferring and starting two more at LSU.  He’s 6’4 but he’s just over 200 lbs. so he’s a bit thin and that may be worrisome for a guy who likes to run as much as he does.  Daniels has a chance to be the third pick in this draft if New England wants a new QB or if a team really likes him and trades up for him. 

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11):  Olu Fashanu     OT     Penn St. 

Beauty will be in the eye of the beholder when it comes to the top OT on the board.  Fashanu is a big, powerful, athletic freak who played LT at a high level at Penn St.  He’s my top OT and he’s an immediate starter and upgrade at LT for the Titans who tried numerous bad ideas to fill the spot last season.  There will be teams that like Joe Alt from Notre Dame or JC Latham from Alabama as their top OT but the Titans have to fix the LT spot one way or another.  If new head coach Brian Callahan plans to turn Will Levis into a legitimate NFL starting QB he needs to help hm out up front first and foremost.  That said, Callahan comes from Cincinnati where they put big playmakers around Joe Burrow before fixing their offensive line so it’s possible, they take Rome Odunze here.  I think GM Ran Carthon is more likely to lean towards fixing the offensive line and he’s in charge here. 

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10):  Dallas Turner     Edge     Alabama

Raheem Morris is the new head coach of the Falcons and while the team needs a new QB I just don’t think Michael Penix Jr or Bo Nix are worth this high of a pick.  The team is going to need some help at pass rusher with Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree both scheduled to be free agents.  Turner isn’t an elite speed rusher like you would normally see go this high but he’s an effective player and can bring pressure and play both ways.  I think this team looks for a veteran solution at QB before the draft and then looks for a younger guy later.  I’m not in favor of Penix or Nix anywhere close to being this high of a pick.

9. Chicago Bears (7-10):  Laiatu Latu     DE     UCLA

I’m going back and forth between Latu at DE or Rome Odunze at WR to pair with their new QB.  There is more WR depth in this draft than DE depth so they take Latu to pair with Montez Sweat moving forward.  The defense improved immensely once they traded for Sweat and actually had a pass rush.  Yannick Ngakoue is a free agent so they need someone opposite Sweat to continue their defensive improvement.  Latu is a top-level edge player with elite hand fighting and he’ll be a great complement opposite Sweat. 

10. New York Jets (7-10):  Joe Alt     OT     Notre Dame

This would be the dream scenario for the Jets because there is no team that needs an OT more than they do.  They were terrible at tackle all season and they have three free agents (Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, and Billy Turner) that they shouldn’t even consider bringing back.  They have to protect Aaron Rodgers if they want the offense to work at all. Alt came into the season as a probably first round pick and then played like a top ten guy all season.  He’s long, athletic enough and has elite technical skills. Alt would be a day-one starter at LT and seriously improve their offense up front. 

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10):  Terrion Arnold     CB     Alabama

The Vikings are going to have some major needs if they don’t re-sign some of their own guys in free agency.  It seems like they might move on from Kirk Cousins but they need to bring back Danielle Hunter at DE because they have three free agents there and he’s one of their best players.  DE is a distinct possibility for this pick but they have to address the secondary, especially CB.  Arnold was a late rising prospect during the season as his teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry was the more highly regarded player coming into the year.  Arnold has proven he can excel both inside and out and was more impressive than McKinstry throughout the year.  He starts on day-one and is probably CB1 on this team pretty quickly.

12. Denver Broncos (8-9):  Jared Verse     DE     Florida St.

The Broncos will be looking for a new QB for Sean Payton but I still don’t like the idea of taking Penix or Nix this high.  There are better prospects who can really help this team and they aren’t a QB away from competing.  The defense was seriously lacking last year and they should take the best defensive prospect left.  That could be a CB but I think it’s Jared Verse.  Verse is one of the only impact edge rushers in this class and they need someone to get pressure up front.  Verse can also fit multiple fronts as either a DE or and OLB and his versatility will be useful to Denver. 

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9):  JC Latham     OT     Alabama

Another team that needs a QB but should really pass in favor of building up the roster overall.  The Raiders have needs at interior offensive line, interior defensive line, offensive tackle, corner, and QB.  Latham is a beast at RT and would pair quite nicely with LT Kolton Miller to make a set of bookends for the offensive line.  Antonio Pierce got the job as the full-time head coach and he’s a culture setting type of guy.  He was a LB as a player and I think he wants this team to be tougher, especially in the trenches.  No one is nastier than Latham and he’ll bring an edge the team hasn’t had up front for quite some time. 

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8):  Rome Odunze     WR     Washington

A third team in a row that will probably take a hard look at QB but should ultimately pass.  The Saints are in cap hell as usual but they will likely finagle their way out of it but restructuring deals with aging guys like Cameron Jordan, Ryan Ramczyk, Demario Davis, and maybe Derek Carr.  One guy they will almost assuredly let walk is WR Michael Thomas.  Also, because of their cap situation they might lose guys like OL Andrus Peat and restricted free agent WR Rasheed Shahid.  If Thomas and Shahid are gone, Chris Olave will need a new running mate.  I can’t believe I have Odunze falling all the way to 14^th but it just happened that way.  He’s a freak and a gamebreaker at WR.  He’s big, physical, and fast and he and Olave would be incredible together.  He should be a top ten pick, he’s a massive steal if he falls this far.

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8):  Cooper DeJean     CB     Iowa

The Colts have some important free agents to re-sign like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and CB Kenny Moore and while they have plenty of cap space, they could lose one of them.  Pittman seems like he’s major priority because he’s their #1 WR and with Anthony Richardson returning at QB they will want to give him his top playmaker.  Even if they re-sign Moore, CB is a still a need, if they don’t, it’s a major need.  Moore is best as the nickel corner so they need someone to play opposite JuJu Brents on the outside.  Enter Cooper DeJean, the all-everything defensive player.  DeJean can play outside corner, he can play the nickel, he can be used as a safety, and he could line up as an undersized coverage LB and he’ll be fine everywhere.  Oh, he’s also an electric punt returner.  DeJean is flying a bit under the radar at the moment because he missed the end of the year with a broken leg.  If he’s healthy and ready to work out at the Combine, this projection might be low.  He’s going to show off some elite athleticism that no one knows is coming except those of us who have been watching him for three years. 

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8):  Jackson Powers-Johnson     C/G     Oregon

The Seahawks have a new head coach and while he’s a defensive guy it’s pretty obvious where the team is lacking, the interior offensive line.  Mike Macdonald was brought in because of his defensive prowess and the Seahawks have some good players to work with on the defensive so they look to solve a major problem on offense first.  Once they get Charles Cross and Abe Lucas back healthy at OT, they are fine there but the interior of the offensive line was bad and all three starters are free agents; LG Damien Lewis, C Evan Brown, and RG Phil Haynes.  Lewis is probably worth re-signing but the other two have to be replaced.  Powers-Johnson is the first guy here who truly improved his draft stock at the Senior Bowl.  He’s big, powerful, and showed his elite blocking ability against the best competition at Senior Bowl practices.  At 6’3 330 lbs. he’s a big man who moves like a smaller one.  He’s an immediate starter and massive upgrade at center or right guard for the Seahawks. 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8):  Taliese Fuaga     OT     Oregon St.

The Jaguars have to get better on the offensive line and while they need help on the interior and Fuaga is technically an OT, I think they can make it work.  Fuaga was a RT at Oregon and he has great size for the position but he could be used inside.  The Jaguars traded for LG Ezra Cleveland at the deadline last year and he’ll be a free agent while RG Brandon Scherff is a possible cap casualty.  Given how bad they were on the line last season, they need upgrades.  Anton Harrison was a rookie playing RT and Cam Robinson was his usual unreliable self at LT.  Fuaga gives them some versatility to find the best five they can put on the field.  He may end up at LT, if he can show he can handle it.  Or he ends up at RT and Harrison kicks over to LT while Robinson moves inside.  Or Fuaga just ends up playing guard until Robinson leaves in a year and then they figure out if he’s an OT or an OG.  Either way, he’s an upgrade, and they need an upgrade. 

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8):  Bryan Thomas Jr.    WR     LSU

The Bengals gave Joe Burrow a massive extension last year and they are going to have to give Ja’Marr Chase a massive extension next season which means somebody isn’t getting paid and that somebody is probably Tee Higgins.  Higgins is a WR1 and someone is going to pay him like one and while it’s possible the Bengals franchise tag him to keep him one more year, I think they are too cash poor to do so.  Tyler Boyd is also a free agent and I think it’s far more likely they re-sign him and RT Jonah Williams and look for a Higgins replacement in this draft.  Oh, and look, here’s one right here.  Bryan Thomas might be considered the “other” LSU WR this year but he was just as awesome as Malik Nabers when it comes to production.  He’s a big, fast, downfield threat who will keep Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense humming right along.

19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7):  Quinyon Mitchell     CB     Toledo

The Rams did an excellent job restocking their defense with mid and late round draft picks last season.  They also had a handful of veteran castoff free agents who did well like Ahkello Witherspoon at CB.  Unfortunately, Witherspoon is a free agent again and while they could bring him back there is no guarantee he plays like he did last season. They need help all over the secondary and Mitchell is a guy who is just getting started.  He comes from Toledo so his experience against top competition is limited but he more than held his own at the Senior Bowl, in fact, he thrived.  Mitchell has prototypical size and speed, and while he played a lot of zone at Toledo, he can stick to his man in man-to-man coverage.  It’s a big bet on potential but that’s what the Rams did with last year’s draft class and Mitchell is an even safer bet. 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7):  Tyler Guyton     OT     Oklahoma

I’m tempted to give the Steelers Bo Nix here but taking another QB at 20^th overall in the first round might be a bit much for the Steelers to stomach.  I think the team re-signs Mason Rudolph and lets him and Kenny Pickett fight it out to start.  One thing that would help this team is to improve the offensive line.  They drafted Broderick Jones last year and they need to move him to LT and let him settle in, that would open the RT spot.  Tyler Guyton is a long, athletic OT prospect with great upside and just needs some time to develop.  He would give them a guy to help solidify the edges and protect whichever QB they go with.  Guyton would also give them a chance to improve the run game which is where I’m sure new OC Arthur Smith will go often given his QB situation. 

21. Miami Dolphins (11-6):  Graham Barton     OL     Duke

The Dolphins have some holes to fill on their offensive line.  All three starters on the inside are free agents to be, and they may not want them back, while LT Terron Armstead may contemplate retirement.  While the quick strike nature of the Dolphins’ passing attack helps them up front, they need improvements everywhere but RT.  Barton is a highly skilled, experienced player who has played both LT and center and may best be suited to play OG in the NFL.  He has limited center experience but he could move there and likely flourish.  He’s playable at LT if Armstead retires or per usual, gets injured.  Barton’s versatility will get him drafted higher than most people think and the Dolphins need options on the offensive line because they are over the cap and can’t afford to re-sign all their OL free agents, and they shouldn’t want to. 

22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6):  Nate Wiggins     CB     Clemson

This might be a little out of the ordinary for Eagles GM Howie Roseman as he’s prone to drafting offensive and defensive linemen in the first round more often than secondary players.  However, it’s hard to ignore the play of the Eagles secondary last season as James Bradberry’s play dropped off significantly and Darius Slay’s age is starting to show.  Wiggins is a tall, lanky CB with great coverage skills and while he’s a bit thin, he’s competitive as hell.  He may not be from Georgia’s defense (another Roseman favorite lately), he’s better than Georgia CB Kamari Lassiter. 

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland):  Kool-Aid McKinstry     CB     Alabama

The Texans excellent draft class last season helped them reach the playoffs way sooner than anyone thought and now they have a chance to add to their collection of good young players.  This is the last first round pick they get from Cleveland from the Deshaun Watson trade so they should make the most of it.  McKinstry came into the year as the top CB prospect but didn’t even finish the year as the top CB prospect on his own team (hello Terrion Arnold).  That doesn’t mean he’s bad, it just means he’s not as good as people thought he might be.  McKinstry still has great size, he’s an excellent athlete, and he was a multi-year starter at Alabama under Nick Saban.  DeMeco Ryans will know everything there is to know about McKinstry and this team has some free agents at CB.  While they might re-sign Steven Nelson, he is 31 and he’s not a long-term solution opposite Derek Stingley Jr. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5):  Zach Frazier     C/G     West Virginia

There’s always a surprise pick in the first round of the draft and this would be that surprise.  Frazier is an excellent center and while centers aren’t always valued this highly, the Cowboys have done something like this before.  They once drafted Travis Frederick in round one and while it was a bit shocking at the time, it worked out quite well.  Tyler Biadasz is a pending free agent and this would be an upgrade.  Frazier is big, powerful, and experienced, everything you want in a starting center.  The Cowboys have other needs but they aren’t afraid to spend first-round picks on interior offensive linemen; Frederick, Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Zach Martin. 

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8):  Amarius Mims     OT     Georgia

The Packers have a very young offense and this pick would make it even younger.  I think there’s a good chance the Packers cut David Bakhtiari in order to save against the cap.  Bakhtiari has been injured a lot lately and they could use the cap space.  Mims is a freakish athlete with all the size and skills you want in an LT, he just hasn’t played much.  He’s a lottery ticket and if he lives up to his potential, he could be one of the best LTs in the game.  He only really played RT at Georgia and he didn’t even play that much due to some injuries but he’s young and just scratching the surface. 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8):  Chop Robinson     Edge     Penn St. 

The Buccaneers won their division and made the playoffs after coming into the year with pretty low expectations.  Baker Mayfield played well for them and while he’s a free agent again, the marriage between him and the Bucs is one they are both probably looking to extend.  One thing this team has to do better if they want to improve their record and stay ahead in the NFC South is get to the QB.  Shaq Barrett is getting older, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t been very productive, and Yaya Diaby was a nice rookie but not a star.  Robinson can be an elite edge rusher and should fit in quite well on this defense.  He has a quick twitch to him off the line and while he’s not the toughest run defender, that would be less of a worry at OLB instead of being a DE.   

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston):  Darius Robinson     DE     Missouri

The Cardinals need defenders and here they get one of the rising players coming out of the Senior Bowl.  Robinson played most of his career inside at DT until he had to play on the edge at Missouri this past season.  He was a major part of Missouri’s defense being good this year as he took to the edge quite well.  Then he went to the Senior Bowl and showed everyone just how athletic he is and at 6’5 and over 290 lbs., he’s an absolute freak.  This spot may be too low when it’s all said and done, he could easily climb draft boards when compared to the other DEs in this class.  The Cardinals would be lucky to have him.

28. Buffalo Bills (11-6):  Keon Coleman     WR     Florida St.

Gabe Davis is a free agent and the Bills shouldn’t be in a hurry to re-sign him.  Stefon Diggs keeps making noise about getting out of Buffalo and after the poor second half of the season he had, they may want to move on too.  Coleman is a big, physical target with good speed and penchant for making plays.  Josh Allen needs more reliable receivers after Diggs and Davis both had disappointing years.  Coleman is getting lost in the shuffle a bit with the four guys above him being monster WR prospects but he has legitimate #1 WR upside, especially if he’s playing with a QB like Josh Allen. 

29. Detroit Lions (12-5):  Kamari Lassiter     CB     Georgia

Detroit has two big needs and they are both on defense, CB, and edge rusher.  This isn’t a great class to need either one of those two spots this late and Lassiter is the best one left.  He’s 6’0 180 lbs. so he’s on the thin side and that might hurt him against physical WRs and in the run game but he can cover.  He has scheme versatility because he’s an intelligent player with a lot of experience.  Lassiter is probably never going to be a CB1 but he’s a massive upgrade over most of the guys the Lions have.  If they want to take a shot at a pass rusher, they would probably be better off taking a DT with some pass rush skills like Jer’Zhan Newton or Byron Murphy II. 

30. Baltimore Ravens (13-4):  Byron Murphy II     DT     Texas

The Ravens aren’t in the worst shape cap wise but they don’t have a ton of room without some cap gymnastics to move some money around.  They do have a ton of guys from their defense who can be free agents including; DL Justin Madubuike, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, LBs Patrick Queen and Kyle Van Noy, and others.  Madubuike had a breakout season and he’s priority #1 to re-sign.  They don’t have a ton of depth up front and Brent Urban is also a free agent.  Murphy was an interior lineman at Texas who was quite good at pushing the pocket.  He’s not the biggest guy to be a true DT so he would fit the Ravens odd front well and take some focus off Madubuike.  Murphy can push the pocket and still hold up on the edge against the run.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6):  Adonai Mitchell     WR     Texas

The Chiefs have two major needs on offense, LT and WR.  At WR, they need more than one addition to make a difference, they need to overhaul the unit.  Rashee Rice is the only WR they have that they shouldn’t be looking to replace.  Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and especially Kadarius Toney should all be replaced.  Mitchell is 6’4 with an incredible catch radius and the ability to get downfield like Valdes-Scantling, the only difference is he can actually catch.  They could look to replace Donovan Smith at LT right here but the WRs offer better value than the OTs still left.  Also, they need a couple of WRs so they should grab one here. 

32. San Francisco 49ers (12-5):  Kingsley Suamataia     OT     BYU  

Suamataia is a big, athletic OT who fits the 49ers play style and they need to look to upgrade at RT over Colton McKivitz.  He can also be a nice hedge against Trent Williams’ age.  Williams is still the premier LT in football but he’ll be 36 next season and he can’t play forever.  Suamataia could handle the LT spot in the future and keep the 49ers offense rolling for years.  If there was a great safety available here, that would make sense and so would a nice CB prospect but none of the ones left are better than getting a new OT with some serious upside.           

In the 1999 classic film 10 Things I Hate About You, Gabrielle Union’s character has the surprisingly philosophical line, “I know you can be overwhelmed, and you can be underwhelmed, but can you ever just be whelmed?”.  Kirk Ferentz answered that question today with a resounding no, you can’t be whelmed.  Ferentz naming Tim Lester his new offensive coordinator is the most whelming thing he could possibly do.  I had absolutely no reason to think Ferentz would hire some brilliant young offensive mind to transform his offense.  I had every reason to believe he would hire some retread coach that no one else really wanted.  My expectations were set exactly where we ended up.  And yet, I’m completely underwhelmed.    

He hired a former MAC head coach who had been fired from his job over a year ago.  A guy who had some very good offenses at Western Michigan but it was at Western Michigan.  He had taken over that program from PJ Fleck who had won 11 games and left as a rising star when he left for the Minnesota job, and he promptly made Western Michigan…fine.  They topped out at 8-5 and were a good offense but not revolutionary.  Lester worked his way up from high school coaching, to Division III schools like Elmhurst College and North Central College.  He was a QB coach and then a offensive coordinator for a year at Syracuse, they weren’t great and the head coach got fired.  Then he was QB coach under Darrell Hazell at Purdue for two years, Hazell also got fired.  Then Western Michigan needed to replace Fleck and Tim Lester was a Western Michigan legend (he’s in their Athletic Hall of Fame) from his playing days, and they hired him.  He was good for most of his six-year run and then the wheels came off in 2022, the team went 5-7, and the new athletic director wanted to hire his own guy.

Tim Lester is exactly who we all should have expected Ferentz to hire.  Maybe not by name but by coaching profile.  There is nothing remarkable about him, there is nothing that makes me think he’s transformational.  The one thing he did at Western Michigan that we can hope Ferentz will let him integrate into Iowa’s offense is the run-pass option (RPO) offense (I’ll hold out hope as long as possible).  That would get Iowa caught up to around the early 2000’s with their offense.  Rich Rodriguez was experimenting with the RPO stuff as a variation of his read-option offense at West Virginia, way back in the day.  It’s a common misconception that you need a mobile QB to run the RPO, you need a mobile QB to run the read-option, not the RPO.  A mobile QB adds another dimension to an RPO offense but it’s not a requirement.  Anyway, Lester ran the RPO stuff pretty heavily at WMU.  One thing we can all hope is that he can develop some WRs like he had at WMU.  He coached Skyy Moore, who was awesome in college (don’t hold his Kansas City Chiefs tenure against him), Dwayne Eskridge (also not a great pro but a good college WR) and even Corey Crooms (who eventually transferred to Minnesota) and any of them would have been the best WR at Iowa in the last five years.  All that said, I still feel underwhelmed, I should be whelmed but I’m not. 

This is probably because the other finalist for the job was Kevin Johns, the former offensive coordinator at Duke.  Johns’ background would have made for a more likely noticeable change to the offense.  I would have preferred him because he spent time as OC at Indiana under Kevin Wilson, at Texas Tech with Kliff Kingsbury, at Memphis under Mike Norvell, and coincidently at Western Michigan for a year under Lester.  Wilson, Kingsbury, and Norvell are three of the smartest offensive minds you’ll find when it comes to the passing game and that is something Iowa sorely needs to fix.  Johns didn’t run a pure spread offense at Duke like those guys do but he understands how construct a passing game while also using the running game.  I’m not saying Lester can’t do it, I just have less clear schematic evidence that he can help Iowa in the passing game.  Johns has more power five level experience than Lester and the thing I really liked about Johns is that he’s had good offenses everywhere he’s been while doing it with players at a similar talent level as Iowa.  He was never coordinating an offense full of four and five-star offensive skill players yet he always found a way to make the most of what he had.  At Indiana, even with a head coach who was a spread guy, the offense used Tevin Coleman and Jordan Howard to the tune of over 1000 yards rushing each of their respective years.  At Duke, he had a talented QB who was mobile so he used a lot of RPO and read-option to use Riley Leonard’s athleticism.  I don’t know if Lester can take the talent Iowa does have on offense (and there are talented players) and find the best way to use them because he’s really only had success at a place where he was the head coach and he was working with the players he picked for his system. 

I hope like hell that Lester has some brilliant ideas for this Iowa offense and hopefully Kirk doesn’t restrict those ideas, like I said there is talent to work with.  The running backs are good and really deep.  The TE group has two excellent pieces in Luke Lachey and Addison Ostrenga.  I actually think Kaleb Brown and Seth Anderson can be good WRs if they are used correctly (feed them the ball like they’re Moore and Eskridge).  Hopefully Lester can help Brown, Anderson, and the rest of the young WRs develop into actually useful players.  This offensive coordinator hire will define the end of the Kirk Ferentz era.  Did his stubbornness stop him from finding greatness at the end of his Iowa career or does Lester improve the offense to point that Iowa can actually compete with the big boys?  I don’t get the overwhelming feeling that Lester is going to change Iowa’s fortunes that much and it makes me sad to think Kirk is okay going out with a whimper.  I never knew you hope to be whelmed but I’m certainly tired of Iowa’s offense underwhelming me.  Good luck coach Lester, you’re going to need it.