This is going to be an interesting division with Detroit being one of the best teams in the NFC, the Packers hoping to be right on their heels, the Bears looking like a much-improved team.  The Vikings are counting on Sam Darnold with JJ McCarthy out for the year, that’s a tough place to be in this division. 

Detroit Lions

The offense returns almost everyone of consequence and that includes offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, he might be the most consequential.  QB Jared Goff will trigger the offense built around WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta, RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.  Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the league led by RT Penei Sewell and C Frank Ragnow, two of the best in the game at their respective positions.  The biggest issue they offense faces is can Jameson Williams step up and be the #2 WR they need him to be.  He has the pedigree and he’s an electric player but he has yet to put it together as a pro.  They need him to be the big play complement to St. Brown and LaPorta if the offense is going to be elite. 

The defense has questions too but they played well enough last year to make it to the NFC Championship game.  They are led up front by DE Aidan Hutchinson who had 11.5 sacks last season.  He’s not Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett but he’s steady, he’s tough, and he’s reliable.  He sets the tone. They added DT DJ Reader and while he’s not the edge rusher they need opposite Hutchinson, he’s a very good player and he’ll make Alim McNeill even better.  Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, and Derrick Barnes should make for a solid LB corps.  Campbell should be better and more consistent in his second year. 

The secondary was the weak link in the defense last year and the Lions clearly noticed.  They traded for Carlton Davis III, signed Amik Robertson, drafted Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw, and are hoping to have Emmanuel Moseley back healthy this year.  That’s five CBs they didn’t have last season, that’s a start.  Brian Branch was good as a rookie and should be even better this year.  The one problem on defense this season shouldn’t be in the secondary, it’s who’s the pass rusher besides Hutchinson on the outside. If they are seriously counting on Marcus Davenport to have that all-so-common seventh-year breakout season, they are going to be sorely disappointed.  There are still veteran pass rushers on the market, they should consider signing one. 

Green Bay Packers

The signed Jordan Love to a massive contract extension and now they have to hope he’s the guy he was in the last half of last season and not the guy from the first half.  They have every reason to think he’s a superstar with the way he finished last year but he needs someone to emerge from his receiving corps.  Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks all had good years and flashed potential but one of them has to become the alpha.  Watson profiles like a #1 WR being the highest draft pick of them all (early second round) and he’s the biggest one of the group.  However, Reed and Wicks really stood out last season as playmakers while Doubs was the steady, reliable presence.  If Watson doesn’t show out this season Reed and Wicks might prove to be the better options.  TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are good players wo keep the offense moving for Love. 

The offensive line is the question, not that they won’t be good or whether they have talent, it’s what is the construction of the lineup.  LT Rasheed Wallace stepped in for David Bakhtiari and was solid but the team drafted Jordan Morgan in round one.  Morgan isn’t guaranteed a shot at the LT spot and it looks like he’s going to be fighting to be a starting guard.  Josh Myers is their starting center but he gets mixed reviews.  Elgton Jenkins is a very good veteran when he’s healthy and he could play almost any position.  Zach Tom started at RT last season and was good, but he might be even better somewhere else.  Matt LeFleur needs to figure out his o-line group quickly. 

The defense is absolutely stacked from a personnel standpoint and their less-than-stellar performance of the last few years is the reason why Joe Barry isn’t the defensive coordinator any more.  Jeff Hafley left being Boston College’s head coach to take over the Packers defense.  If he can get them to play up to their considerable talent, he’ll be on the fast track to an NFL head coaching job.  This defense has six defensive starters who were first round picks; DE Rashan Gary, DT Kenny Clark, DT Devonte Wyatt, LB Quay Walker, CB Eric Stokes, and CB Jaire Alexander.  That doesn’t include backup DE Lukas Van Ness who will be their third DE this season.  Also, they paid former Giants second round safety Xavier McKinney a bunch of money to fix their safety position and Preston Smith is the other starter at DE, he was once a second-round pick before coming to Green Bay as a free agent.  Talent is not lacking here; the previous scheme wasn’t working.  It’s Hafley’s job to fix it.   

The Packers can push the Lions for this division if things go right.  Matt LaFleur is an excellent coach who was too loyal to a defensive coordinator who wasn’t getting it done for too long.  If he found a defensive coordinator who can get them going in the right direction, this team is going to be a handful. 

Chicago Bears

The offense is primed to take a major step forward.  Shane Waldron is a real offensive coordinator and should be a massive upgrade.  Caleb Williams walks into a group of offensive players around him better than any #1 overall QB has ever seen.  DJ Moore is a legitimate #1 WR, Keenan Allen is a highly productive veteran slot guy, and Rome Odunze has serious #1 WR potential.  D’Andre Swift isn’t my favorite RB and his last two teams have let him walk but he’s a talented player and they have Khalil Herbert and Rochon Johnson behind him, they are fine at RB.  The offensive line should be better.  I’ve always liked Braxton Jones at LT and I think he could be a breakout player.  RT Darnell Wright was good as a rookie last year.  The interior of the line should be better with Ryan Bates or Coleman Shelton stepping in to upgrade the group, they can’t be worse than the guys there last year.

DE Montez Sweat transformed this defense last year and probably saved Matt Eberflus’ job.  The defense was really good after they traded for Sweat at the trade deadline and he was the catalyst for the turnaround.  He added the pass rushing element they didn’t have.  It’s too bad they didn’t get him more pass rushing help this off season but they focused on building the offense around Caleb Williams instead.  They need to piece together the pass rush with DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson, and maybe some help from rookie Austin Booker. 

The LBs should be fine after their investments last off season in Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards.  The secondary found some players last season as Jaylon Johnson showed he can handle being the top guy, Kyler Gordon played well in the slot, and Tyrique Stevenson proved his doubters wrong (including me) by being a pretty good rookie CB.  The team signed veteran FS Kevin Byard, who is past his prime but a smart veteran.  SS Jaquan Brisker has a chance to be a breakout player. 

Matt Eberflus has to let Shane Waldron run this offense and build it around Williams’ strengths.  Waldron learned under Sean McVay with the Rams before he ran his own offense in Seattle.  He understands how to build an offense that suits the QB.  Eberflus has to make sure the defense keeps up its play from last year because that saved his job.  They didn’t get the defense much help so it’s up to him to figure it out. 

Minnesota Vikings

The offense is set up to be highly productive this year.  Kevin O’Connell is a smart, forward-thinking play caller and the talent is really good almost everywhere.  WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are a great duo.  TE TJ Hockenson is coming off a knee injury but he’s a real talent.  RB Aaron Jones is an upgrade over what they had last year and the offensive line is pretty good with LT Christian Darrisaw and RT Brian O’Neill holding down the edges.  There’s just one issue, the QB.  Sam Darnold was supposed to have to beat out JJ McCarthy and probably give way to him eventually, well that’s not happening. McCarthy will miss his rookie season and it’s Darnold or bust.  In the Vikings’ world bust means Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall, that was a bad plan last year and I doubt it will be better.  Can Darnold be Kirk Cousins? History says no, it’s up to O’Connell to get him there.    

The defense was better than the sum of its parts last season thanks to defensive coordinator Brian Flores.  He schemed it up well enough to keep the defense respectable but they lost Danielle Hunter, their top pass rusher and he has to get the best out of Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel.  Those two guys were signed as edge players to give Flores the versatility he wants in the front seven.  At LB they found Ivan Pace as an undrafted free agent last season and he was very good.  Blake Cashman steps in coming over from Houston, he’s solid but not spectacular.  The front seven should be fine, it’s the secondary that’s going to cause issues. 

Byron Murphy Jr. was their best CB last year but it was a low bar to clear.  They signed Shaq Griffin off the scrapheap but even they realized that wasn’t going to fix anything.  They finally signed Stephon Gilmore to give them legitimate shot at having a #1 CB.  Gilmore is past his prime but he’s still an upgrade for the Vikings.  At safety, Harrison Smith returns for his centennial anniversary with this team, or it just feels that way.  He’s old but still effective.  Cam Bynum is his partner, he’s fine. 

First, the unexpected bit of news that dropped the week before the season, Kirk Ferentz is suspended for the first game of the year. This is the stupidest thing ever as it’s absolute proof that Kirk Ferentz doesn’t cheat. How do I know that? He got caught doing the one thing every coach in the country is doing, he contacted a guy before he entered the transfer portal. If he was used to cheating there’s no chance he gets caught. Iowa made the decision with Ferentz to take the suspension now and pre-empt any possible NCAA suspension. I find this ludicrous because the NCAA’s power is negligible at best right now and while the Big Ten could have stepped in, I find it hard to believe Ferentz would have faced a suspension from the conference. A slap on the wrist, maybe a fine, and taking an extra class on compliance would have sufficed. College sports is a shitshow and it’s going to get worse before it gets better, that’s what happens when you have no leaders and no direction. Okay, on to the real issue.
The Iowa defense will be awesome, I have no doubt about that. I stopped doubting Phil Parker many moons ago and he’s the one guy who could lose Cooper DeJean early to the draft and he might have an even better secondary overall this season. In Phil we trust, always. The offense is wait and see at this point but I have a hard time believing it could ever be worse or more unwatchable than last season. Let’s get into it.

Offense
Quarterback
Starter: Cade McNamara (Sr)
Backup: Brendan Sullivan (Jr)
Depth: Marco Lainez (RS Fr), Jackson Stratton (So.), James Resar (Fr)

The Kid’s Day open practice was not a good look for the offense as Cade McNamara looked off all day long and while Brendan Sullivan looked better, it wasn’t good either. The passing offense is out of sync which is understandable. McNamara hasn’t played in a year and Sullivan just transferred in over the summer. Everyone is learning the offense and the only guys who have any real reps together are Sullivan and WR Jacob Gill who transferred to Iowa from Northwestern just like Sullivan. The look of the offense is different from a motion and movement perspective and while I’m sure it won’t look pretty at times; I don’t think it will make me want to gouge my eyes out. I think McNamara gets the starting nod because I’ve been around Ferentz too long to think otherwise. McNamara is a leader on this team, that won’t be overlooked by Kirk.

Sullivan gives the Hawkeyes a legitimate backup QB though. This guy can actually play Big Ten football and he would fit Tim Lester’s offense quite well. Marco Lainez still looks pretty rough around the edges. He’s a very good athlete and runner but he’s got a long way to go to be a Big Ten passer. I was slightly impressed by Jackson Stratton’s arm at the open practice. He probably has too much confidence in it at times but he can sling it. Resar is redshirting, he’s nowhere near ready to play.

Running Back
Starters: Leshon Williams (Sr), Kaleb Johnson (Jr)
Backups: Kamari Moulton (RS Fr)
Depth: Jaziun Patterson (So), Terrell Washington Jr. (RS Fr) Xavier Williams (Fr), Brevin Doll (Fr)

This group is stacked and it shows. Leshon Williams will be the “starter” for the same reason McNamara will, he’s a leader and Ferentz will trust him. You won’t convince me he’s better the Kaleb Johnson. Johnson looks healthy and he’s just got a different gear. I still maintain the opinion he’s one of the most talented RBs Iowa has had in Ferentz’s tenure. It’s going to be an impossible task to split up the carries with this group because Leshon is Leshon but Kaleb and Kamari Moulton have looked seriously impressive. Moulton has vision and balance that you can’t teach and runs with attitude. At any time of any game one of those three can be in the backfield and you feel like Iowa has a chance to run the ball very well. Patterson had felt like one of those guys before but he feels slightly behind those guys now.

Patterson runs with power and attitude like Moulton but he just doesn’t seem to have the same vision or feel for hitting the hole. When he finds the right gap, he can be electric, when he doesn’t, he looks like a guy running full steam into a brick wall. Terrell Washington Jr. can play RB but he’s too versatile to just hand him the ball. The two freshmen look like they have great futures. Xavier Williams is a beast and Brevin Doll is seriously athletic.

Fullbacks
Eli Miller (Jr), Rusty VanWetzinga (RS Fr), Hayden Large (Grad)

I don’t think Lester’s offense is going to “start” a fullback the way Iowa has in the past. Miller is coming back from missing last season with an injury, he’s a solid blocker. Large plays some TE and fullback, he played a lot of fullback last season with Miller out. They can handle the blocking assignments when called upon. VanWetzinga is the future of the position, assuming there is one.

Tight Ends
Starter: Luke Lachey (Sr)
Backup: Addison Ostrenga (Jr)
Depth: Zach Ortwerth (So), Johnny Pascuzzi (Jr), Gavin Hoffman (Fr), Michael Burt (Fr)

Luke Lachey will continue the TE tradition at Iowa and he’s set up to have a great season. He’s a massive target at 6’6 with long arms and can catch over anyone. He’s a QB’s best friend because when in doubt just throw up high to him. Having him back from injury will improve this offense alone. Addison Ostrenga stepped up when Lachey was hurt last year and did the best he could in a dysfunctional offense. I’m excited to see what happens when he has a functional QB.

Zach Ortwerth also got thrown into the deep end when Lachey went down and he was only a freshman. He held his own and while not as much should be asked of him this year, he looks like a solid future TE. Pascuzzi is a walk-on who has earned playing time and he’s an upper classman so he can step in if needed. Hoffman and Burt are true freshmen with talent, hopefully everyone else is healthy and they can take the year to just learn.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Mason Richman (Sr), LG Beau Stephens (Jr), C Logan Jones (Sr), RG Connor Colby (Sr), RT Gennings Dunker (Jr)
Backups: LT Jack Dotzler (So), LG Kade Pieper (RS Fr), C Tyler Elsbury (Sr), RG Nick DeJong (Grad), RT Trevor Lauck (RS Fr)
Depth: C Mike Myslinski, G/C Leighton Jones, C Cade Borud, OT Kale Krough, OT Cannon Leonard

Generally, if a Kirk Ferentz coached offensive line is starting three seniors and two juniors with as many starts as these guys have, you should feel pretty good about it. I’m not as optimistic as I would hope to be but they did look solid at the open practice. Mason Richman and Logan Jones were both playing through injuries last season and they didn’t play well. That said, Kirk hasn’t given up on either one of them at this point and he better hope it finally pays off this year. Richman is the best option at LT but that says more about his backups than anything. Don’t kid yourself, if Richman goes out it won’t be Dotzler first up to play LT, Ferentz will undoubtedly turn to 47th year grad student Nick DeJong, and yes, I’ll complain if he does. Beau Stephens has the LG spot until he gets hurt, lets be honest, he’s going to get hurt. Connor Colby is somehow a senior already and if he takes a step forward in consistency he’ll have a good senior year. Gennings Dunker was probably the most consistent player on the line last year at RT. He missed most of the off season after surgery but he’s back and hopefully fully healthy. This unit should be better than they were last year and hopefully Lester’s less predictable offense will help them get an edge in blocking.

Dotzler is once again listed as the backup LT, a lot of guys have to be hurt for him to actually play there. Kade Pieper was a true freshman that stepped in last year towards the end of the season and held his own. Now that he’s closer to actually being the size of a Big Ten offensive lineman he could be pretty good. Elsbury was the better center last year, sorry but it’s true. I can’t believe Nick DeJong is still here. Trevor Lauck is a guy I’m truly intrigued with. I think he has a future at OT and perhaps it could be on the left side.

There is no depth with real experience besides Elsbury and DeJong. Guys like Kale Krough and Mike Myslinski have been passed by younger players. Cannon Leonard and Leighton Jones are those younger players. Cade Borud is a center prospect who transferred in from North Dakota and should be ready to take the center job after Jones and Elsbury graduate. There is talent coming in the freshmen class but those guys probably don’t play more than a few snaps if anything this year.

Wide Receivers
Starters: Kaleb Brown (Jr), Kaden Wetjen (Sr), Jacob Gill (Jr)
Backups: Jarriett Buie (RS Fr), Seth Anderson (Jr), Terrell Washington Jr. (RS Fr)
Depth: Dayton Howard (RS Fr), Reece Vander Zee (Fr), Alex Mota (Fr), KJ Parker (Fr)

This is the group that Iowa needs to play way beyond expectations if the offense is going to be functional and we have seen very little proof of what they are capable of doing. Kaleb Brown has flashed but he’s suspended for the first game of the season for an OWI. If he can get his act together and find some consistency with the QB he has all kinds of talent, if not he’s just a fast guy they can’t rely on. Kaden Wetjen is a walk on who hasn’t proven he can be a Big Ten WR yet. He’s fast and the coaches seem to like him but he’s unproven to say the list. Jacob Gill is the one guy who has played Big Ten football quite a bit but that was at Northwestern. Gill has apparently been the best and most consistent WR in training camp so that’s good for him, maybe not good for the other guys. It’s not all that surprising that Gill is the most consistent player, he’s played real reps in a real offense before.

Seth Anderson was supposed to be a starter but it just feels like he’s never healthy enough to stay on the field long enough to earn the job. Jarriett Buie brings a different skill set than these other guys as he’s a bigger player on the outside. I’m listing Terrell Washington Jr. as a WR here because I think he gets most of his playing time in the slot and he’s a playmaker. I think Tim Lester will look for ways to use him if guys like Brown and Wetjen prove to be unreliable.

The depth is three very young guys. Dayton Howard and Reece Vander Zee are the outliers for this WR corps. They are both 6’4 and somewhere around 205 lbs. which makes them considerable bigger than the rest of this group (Buie is the only other one over 6’0). Lester made a living at Western Michigan with smaller, quicker WRs but he didn’t exactly have access to big WR there so he worked with what he had. Vander Zee has apparently looked really good even though he’s a true freshman who played multiple sports in high school and is just now focusing full time on football, that’s a good sign. I don’t expect Alex Mota or KJ Parker to contribute unless things really go off the rails.

Defense

Defensive Line
Starters: DE Deontae Craig (Sr), DE Ethan Hurkett (SR), DT Yahya Black (Sr), DT Aaron Graves (Jr)
Backups: DE Max Llewellyn (Jr), DE Brian Allen (So), DT Jeff Bowie (Jr), DT Jeremiah Pittman (Jr)
Depth: DE Kenneth Merriweather (RS Fr), DT Luke Gaffney (So), DE Caden Crawford (So),
Chase Brackney (RS Fr), Maddux Borcherding-Johnson (RS Fr)

Last season Joe Evans was the best pressure player coming off the edge, this year, unless Deontae Craig breaks out, this team is going to count on the interior to be the better players. Yahya Black is in for a monster senior season and I think he could play himself into be a first-round draft pick by the end of the season. Aaron Graves has been biding his time behind Logan Lee and now it’s his time to shine. Graves and Black are going to destroy some offenses from the inside out. Craig needs to find his pass rush skills. Two years ago, he started to look like a guy who would figure it out and last year it just never happened. Hurkett is a sold end who will set the edge in this defense and get some pressure but he’s not changing the game.

Max Llewellyn has played quite a few snaps as a back up edge rusher and if Craig or Hurkett faulter he would be a guy who can start. Brian Allen has been a tantalizing talent since he arrived on campus but he’s inconsistent. He has some juice off the edge, which this team needs, but you have to be a sound fundamental player for Phil Parker and d-line coach Kelvin Bell to trust you and he hasn’t been that so far. Jeremiah Pittman is the third DT and will rotate in but Jeff Bowie as the fourth DT is less of a sure thing. Pittman can play and he’ll be solid. Bowie has fought injuries for many years and they are just hoping he’s healthy enough to give them some quality snaps.

This team doesn’t have the depth it’s had in the past several years but there’s still talent. They are really hoping some of the young guys can contribute. Merriweather could be a designated pass rusher if the need one. I’m not sure they want to count on Gaffney or Crawford and Brackney and Borcherding-Johnson are still trying to figure out if they are inside or outside guys. It’s possible a true freshman makes an appearance. DE Joseph Anderson could be a speed rusher off the edge or Devan Kennedy could take a few snaps at DT. Neither is physically ready to play that much in the Big Ten, however, if needed they could play.

Linebackers
Starters: MLB Jay Higgins (Sr), WLB Nick Jackson (Grad), Cash Sebastian Castro (Grad)
Backups: Karson Sharar (Jr), Jaden Harrell (Jr), Kyler Fisher (Grad)
Depth: Landyn Van Kekerix (So), Jayden Montgomery (So), Zach Twedt (Jr), Jaxon Rexroth (Jr)

While the defense lacks its usual depth on the line, there is an embarrassment of riches at LB. Jay Higgins is an All-American candidate after his stellar season last year. He’ll run the Iowa defense from his MLB spot once again. Nick Jackson can become the all-time leading tackler in Division 1 football this season with just a pedestrian year for himself. These two are the best LB duo in college football. Iowa uses the Cash position for its base defense most of the time and Sebastian Castro returns to continue to destroy opposing offenses. He has a legitimate shot to be the Big Ten defensive player of the year, he may just have to beat out Higgins for the award. Castro is a masterful chess piece that Phil Parker can move just about anywhere on the defense and wreak havoc with the opposition.

Karson Sharar and Jaden Harrell are extremely patient players as they have been biding their time waiting to play behind Higgins and Jackson. It’s a testament to them, this team culture, and this coaching staff that neither one transferred out looking for a starting job. They both could be starting on good teams in college football. Kyler Fisher returns for his 100th year at Iowa (that may be an exaggeration). He’s generally the third LB to play if they go to a three LB look and move Castro to safety. Fisher is a good coverage LB who has years of experience to pull from and he does his job well.

Landyn Van Kekerix, Jayden Montgomery, Zach Twedt, and Jaxon Rexroth are all guys who will contribute heavily on special teams and something tells me if they are needed to step in, they will be ready to play. There are some very good freshmen too, they will have to wait their turn, but the position is in good shape for quite some time.

Defensive Backs
Starters: CB Jermari Harris (Grad), CB TJ Hall (Jr) or CB Deshaun Lee (So) or CB John Nestor (So), FS Quinn Schulte (Grad), SS Xavier Nwankpa (Jr)
Backups: Two of the CBs listed above. FS Zach Lutmer (RS Fr), SS Koen Entringer (So)
Depth: CB Deavin Hilson (Jr), DB Kahlil Tate (RS Fr), S Jamison Heinz (Sr), Jaylen Watsson (Fr), Rashad Godfrey Jr. (Fr), Teegan Davis (RS Fr)

The team lost Cooper DeJean and while it’s a significant player to lose, they return everyone else who started and have more depth than they know what to do with. CB Jermari Harris and FS Quinn Schulte joined Higgins, Jackson, Fisher, and Castro as guys who returned for an extra year and they make this secondary very good and those guys together make this defense scary. Harris will start at one CB spot but the other one still seems up for grabs. It felt in spring like John Nestor might take the job, but TJ Hall has gotten healthy and seems like he may have moved ahead. Deshaun Lee stepped in at the beginning of last year when Harris was out and played well. Then he stepped back in after DeJean got hurt and got even more experience. Regardless of who plays, Phil Parker has plenty of options at CB and it’s a nice problem to have. SS Xavier Nwankpa is a great athlete and while he sometimes gets taken off the field when Castro moves to SS, he’s a very good player. He could be the breakout player of this defense. Schulte quarterbacks this secondary from he FS spot and he’s excellent at it.

The two backup safeties are Koen Entringer who is coming off an injury late last year so we will see what he looks like getting back. He’s a great special team’s player who will get some time on defense but with Schulte, Nwankpa, and Castro, he’s really the fourth safety. Lutmer is a young guy who made some plays at the open practice and the coaches seem to like a lot. He might be Schulte’s replacement next season or he’s the third safety behind Nwankpa and Entringer. Either way, he’s good depth for now. You won’t see much from these depth pieces. Hilson is the fifth CB and Tate looks to be behind him. Heinz is the sixth safety essentially. Phil Parker has never had a problem playing true freshman so it’s possible Watson or Godfrey play but it just seems like there are a lot of guys ahead of them. Davis had a major injury his senior year of high school and missed all last year as freshman so while he’s technically a redshirt freshman, he’s basically in year one.

Kicker
Drew Stevens- he’s having a good camp after struggling at the end of last year. That’s a good thing.
Punter
Rhys Dakin-Another Aussie punter with a ridiculous leg. He won’t have Tory Taylors perfect aim just yet, Dakin is a freshman. However, give him time and for now, he will unleash a few booming punts everyone will love.

Final Thoughts

It’s going to be a strange season as we get a look at what Tim Lester’s offense is going to look like and find out if Cade McNamara is the QB we need. If McNamara isn’t the guy, at least Sullivan looks like a legitimate Big Ten QB. Iowa’s schedule sets up pretty well. They get a warmup game against Illinois St. to start the season, a team returning about 4 starters. They can work out some kinks before they get Iowa St. The Big Ten schedule isn’t terrible. They only got Ohio St out of the top teams. The one west coast trip is to the weakest west coast opponent UCLA, see you there! The Hawkeyes won 10 games last season with a non-functioning offense, if the offense is simply just not the worst in college football 10 wins is easy to see happening. Rivalry games like Iowa St, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota are always challenging but not impossible this year. I’m cautiously optimistic about the offense, I’m completely sold on the defense and special teams, and I think the schedule is manageable. At the very least, this should be more fun team to watch because the offense shouldn’t make me sick to my stomach. If the offense isn’t better, it’s the beginning of the end for Kirk. Let’s hope Tim Lester was the right choice and the solution to the problems. Enjoy the season.

In April I went to the Iowa football open spring practice with the intent of seeing what Iowa’s new offense might look like.  I knew it wouldn’t be a great look at it because Deacon Hill was running the first team with Cade McNamara not healthy and the offense wasn’t fully installed at that point.  My interest was to see if there were noticeable changes in structure and scheme that I could pick up on, mission accomplished.  When Iowa fired Brian Ferentz and we knew they would be changing coordinators I tempered my expectations because Kirk Ferentz is still the coach and he’s never going to change his philosophy of ball control offense and great defense and special teams.  I said then, the offense only changes as much as Kirk allows, apparently, he’s allowing the structure to change considerably. 

What new offensive coordinator Tim Lester’s offense would look like was a mystery and to a certain extent, it still is.  However, from what I saw, it’s very different.  The biggest difference is the amount of motion.  I wasn’t charting plays or anything but if you told me the number of plays with motion that day was 80%, I would say you were underestimating it.  This isn’t motion just for motion’s sake, that was a staple of the previous offense.  Using motion in certain situations and always using it in the same way makes your offense predictable, this isn’t that. 

Predictability kills an offense before the play even starts.  Tim Lester uses motion so much, it simply throws the defense into chaos.  He was even doing it to Phil Parker’s very talented and veteran defense, that’s good news.  Most people think of motion in football as something you use in the passing game, it helps identify coverages.  That’s very true but Lester uses it in the run game too to make defenses play off balance.  Get them going one way and then run the other.  Motion, misdirection, and simplifying the passing game will go a long way to fix what has been wrong with Iowa’s offense for so many years.  This team isn’t going to put up 35 points a game (that would be wonderful but one step at a time) but they are going to make teams have to actually prepare for Iowa’s offense.  

The other reason I didn’t write about this team sooner was the transfer portal.  There needed to be changes, mostly at QB, and that took some time.  Deacon Hill has moved on.  We should thank him for sticking around all spring and helping install our new offense and then really thank him for leaving and opening up a scholarship at QB.  Hill probably wasn’t the worst player to ever play QB in a Division I football game but you would have a hard time convincing me there’s ever been a guy who started nine games who was worse.  Generally, when you’re that bad, your team puts any else in the game.  Thanks for helping out this spring Deacon, enjoy Utah…Tech.

Despite the doom and gloom that so many fans still feel about Iowa’s offense, I have some reasons for optimism.  First, the QB situation looks much improved.  Second, the offense structure is going to help the passing game be more efficient, the run game to be more effective, and it should help the offensive line by putting them in easier situations.  The spring practice only showed a very small amount of the offense, by design.  There is more to come as Cade McNamara gets healthy and more offense gets installed.  This team doesn’t need the offense to be great, they need it to be functional.  In year one under Tim Lester, I think that’s possible.  Let’s take a look at some of the changes (this is almost entirely on offense) that should really help and how things should get better. 

The Quarterbacks

Kirk Ferentz made it clear that Cade McNamara is the starter heading into the summer and as long as his rehab goes well, it’s his job to lose in the fall.  It would be great if he could stay healthy and help the new offense take hold.  He fits what Tim Lester wants to do, he has the ability to make quick decisions, high level accuracy, and the leadership qualities you want in a QB.  That’s the good news.  The better news is if he gets hurt next season, Iowa has a legitimate option to replace him.

The depth chart got a lot better after spring practice starting with the addition of former Northwestern starter Brendan Sullivan.  Sullivan isn’t a star by any means but compared to Deacon Hill, he’s John fucking Elway.  He can run Tim Lester’s offense, Lester tried to recruit Sullivan to Western Michigan out of high school when Lester was the head coach there.  Sullivan is going into his fourth year of college so he’s older and more mature than Marco Lainez who is still getting used to being in college.  They also added another transfer in former Colorado St. QB Jackson Stratton who was a scholarship QB there but will be a third year walk on at Iowa.  I don’t expect true freshman James Resar to factor in at all but the depth looks far better heading into 2025 than it did coming out of 2024.  Cade McNamara, Brendan Sullivan, Marco Lainez, Jackson Stratton, and James Resar.  If this were Jeopardy the answer would be Who are five guys I’d rather have playing QB than Deacon Hill?    

The Running Backs

While the QB situation in the spring practice wasn’t good and the Hawks have to wait to see what they really have there, the RB situation looks to be in awesome shape.  Leshon Williams sat out the practice but Kaleb Johnson looked healthy and explosive, Kamari Moulton looks like he’s ready to break out, and Jaziun Patterson has some pop.  Johnson had a lower leg injury early last year and just never looked quite right, he looks right now.  I think he’s the most talented RB Iowa has had in many years and he’s a dynamic runner.  With the scheme built to keep the defense off balance, I see Johnson’s ability to get outside and break a big run coming in very handy.  He has elite RB traits.  Williams is tough and reliable and Kirk still loves that and he’ll still be used but Johnson has star level talent.

The more noticeable change was Kamari Moulton looking like a breakout player.  Jaziun Patterson was the third back last season and got more usage when Johnson was out but Moulton looked more comfortable in the new offense.  Moulton is bigger going into his second year and he ran with more decisiveness than Patterson and better vision.  Patterson is still a very talented back but he has some work to do to earn carries.  Moulton gives Iowa a very skilled third back for now.  Terrell Washington is splitting time between RB and WR but I think he ends up as a WR next season, he’ll be more valuable as a slot receiver than as the fifth RB. 

The Wide Receivers

This is the group with the most question marks and the group that needs Tim Lester’s schematic changes the most.  Lester had success at Western Michigan with WRs like Skyy Moore and Dee Eskridge and the hope is that he can use the Iowa guys the same way.  Kaleb Brown is easily the most talented WR of the group.  He’s short but fast and might fit the Moore/Eskridge mold the best.  Lester has talked about getting the playmakers the ball, Brown is his best playmaker at WR.  Seth Anderson was another transfer in last season and has spent a lot of his time at Iowa injured but they have to hope he gets healthy because they need him outside.  Kaden Wetjen is the other WR who looked good in the spring game and he brings speed and elusiveness to the position that should work well in the new offense.

Brown, Anderson, and Wetjen are the early favorites to be the starters in the fall but Brown is probably the only one of those you can safely write in pen.  The coaches like Wetjen but he really hasn’t played WR in a game and Anderson needs to be available.  That means the team is open to anyone looking to grab a job. Enter Terrell Washington, the RB/slot hybrid.  Washington looks like a slot receiver and has all the skills to excel there.  It seems Lester is intrigued by that idea and Washington will get every chance to play receiver.  Jarriett Buie was a true freshman last year but he’s one of the few guys Iowa has with legitimate size to play outside, he’s first in line for a promotion if Anderson’s injury issues persist.  Dayton Howard is another redshirt freshman to keep an eye on, he offers even more size than Buie. The other name to remember is Northwestern transfer Jacob Gill.  He’s small and speedy and while he wasn’t a star at Northwestern, he does have legitimate playing time in Big Ten football games and that’s experience that Iowa is sorely lacking. 

The Tight Ends

Not much to talk about here.  Luke Lachey was back and healthy and Addison Ostrenga will the TE2.  These two look ready to continue the TE tradition at Iowa.  Zach Ortwerth got in some games last year backing up Ostrenga once Erick All and Lachey were both hurt so he should be the third TE.  Walk-on Johnny Pascuzzi and Hayden Large add depth.  If they have injuries hit hard like last season, true freshman Gavin Hoffman was an early enrollee so he at least got an early start on learning the offense and would be a depth option. 

The Offensive Line

This is the other piece of the puzzle that Lester’s offensive scheme needs to help fix because it’s the same cast of characters for now and the only positive change is hopefully these guys are healthy.  LT Mason Richman dealt with an injury all last season and hopefully that explains why he was so bad last year.  The Hawkeyes need him healthy because there is no obvious replacement to be found as the coaches clearly don’t trust Jack Dotzler and no one should want Nick DeJong there.  I can’t believe I still have to talk about DeJong, I guess we can always hope the sixth year is the breakout year (Kirk Ferentz just can’t quit that guy). 

Beau Stephens is penciled in at LG and that may only last a few games given his injury history.  He’s fine when he plays but getting like a four-game stretch out of him seems nearly impossible.  Connor Colby is back at RG and hopefully he’ll be a steady presence in his fourth year. There’s a couple of young guys in Kade Pieper and Trevor Lauck as the backups for now and Pieper looked good in limited playing time as a true freshman last year.  If Stephens gets hurt again it’s completely possible Pieper is the guy who steps in. 

C Logan Jones and RT Gennings Dunker were out during the spring and while I don’t think Dunker has anything to worry about when it comes to his starting job (his fill-in was DeJong), Jones has a more tenuous hold on the center job.  Jones has not had the development you would hope after moving over from defensive tackle, let’s face it, there’s only one Tyler Linderbaum.  Elsbury was pretty good as Jones’ replacement last season and the line looked it’s overall best with him, not with Jones.  It is usually pretty hard to get Kirk Ferentz to replace a guy who he seems so committed to but maybe a new set of eyes, say offensive coordinator Tim Lester’s, will point out some things to Kirk.  Besides just Elsbury, walk-on North Dakota transfer Cade Borud might also put some pressure on Jones.   

Like I said, Dunker doesn’t have much to worry about at RT, DeJong is simply a fill-in and Dunker was one of the few bright spots on the line last season.  Also, Iowa hasn’t developed any real OT depth.  Jack Dotzler and Kale Krogh are the two non-freshman OTs on the roster besides the starters and neither one has put any level of pressure on the starters and are more likely going to be trying to hold off the freshmen from taking their backup jobs.  Trevor Lauck and Cannon Leaonard are redshirt freshmen that Iowa needs to develop if Dotzler and Krogh don’t make meaningful progress this season.

If Iowa can get an offensive line of LT Mason Richman, LG Beau Stephens, C Logan Jones or Tyler Elsbury, RG Connor Colby, and RT Gennings Dunker healthy and playing in Tim Lester’s system, I think we see major improvement.  Lester’s offense is less predictable and has more quick hitting action which generally asks the offensive line to have to hold up for less time.  That would be a welcome change for a unit that struggled a lot last year. 

The Defense

I’m not going to dive deep into Phil Parker’s defense, they’re going to be good.  DT Yahya Black, DE Deontae Craig, MLB Jay Higgins, LB Nick Jackson, CASH Sebastian Castro, CB Jermari Harris, SS Xavier Nwankpa, and FS Quinn Schulte were all starters last season for almost the whole year, that’s eight returning starters.  CB Deshaun Lee started multiple games when Harris was out to start the year and then when Cooper DeJean got hurt late in the year.  So almost nine full-time starters if we’re being honest.  DT Aaron Graves steps in as a starter, he’s got big shoes to fill replacing Logan Lee but if anyone is up for it, it’s Graves.  It’s the DE spot that is the real question.  Ethan Hurkett steps in for Joe Evans, the best pass rusher Iowa had.  It won’t all fall on Hurkett, Deontae Craig has to be better than he was last year and they need Brian Allen and Max Llewellyn to really step up as rotation guys. 

Higgins and Jackson are one of the best LB duos in the college football, you can argue they are the best duo.  The secondary is elite overall even without Cooper DeJean.  Sebastian Castro plays the hybrid LB/S spot known as the CASH but he’s arguably the best defensive back in the Big Ten.  Nwankpa could be the breakout player in the secondary as he goes into is second full season as a starter, he has elite physical talent and Phil Parker defensive backs only get better with age.  Quinn Schulte is a super-super senior and the brains of the defense. He makes sure everyone is where they are supposed to be and then he covers up any mistakes.  Jermari Harris, Deshaun Lee and John Nestor are not going to be DeJean but the three of them can be a very capable trio of corners and I’m never betting against Phil Parker getting the absolute best out of his secondary. 

This team won 10 games with the worst offense I’ve ever witnessed that wasn’t coordinated by Matt Patricia.  Even if the defense misses DeJean and Evans a bit, the offense should be improved enough to make up that difference.  If the Tim Lester offense fails, the end of the Kirk Ferentz era will begin quite quickly.  If there’s progress with the offense, Kirk Ferentz can go out on his own terms some time in the next few years.    

I paused my YouTubeTV subscription for a couple of months because I really haven’t used it since the 2024 draft and now, I find myself with some time.  I’m working on some thoughts on the Iowa football team but there’s a lot of questions on the new offense and almost zero questions on the defense so I’m still working on it.  Instead, I’m going for a way-too-soon mock draft for next year’s NFL draft.  There is no clear-cut top player, the QB group is a work in progress, and the top prospect might be a guy that teams aren’t sure whether he’s a CB or a WR.  This is a fool’s errand but I find it fun.

Unlike most dumb mock drafts at this time of year, I’m not using some betting site’s odds for the Super Bowl to determine the draft order.  I simply made a list of the teams by how good I think they will be.  The teams I think are going to struggle are teams with QB questions, teams with young QBs, teams with major roster holes, and teams that are usually bad.  Some teams fall into more than one of these categories.  This is simply a fun exercise and I haven’t watched a lot of film of some of these prospects so, don’t take it too seriously.

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Carson Beck     QB     Georgia

If you’re looking for a team that could be pretty bad next year, the team with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew at QB, an unproven head coach, a very questionable offensive coordinator, a lot of turnover on the offensive line, and a pretty suspect defensive backfield is a solid place to start.  Beck looks the part of a top QB prospect, he’s 6’4 220 lbs. and he’ll be a multi-year starter in the SEC.  He’s the best bet to be the breakout QB prospect this season and Raiders will be hunting for a future star.  Pairing him with his old reliable buddy Brock Bowers would be make a nice transition to the pros. 

2. Washington Commanders:  Will Campbell     OT     LSU

Another reuniting of former teammates as Campbell was Jayden Daniels LT at LSU and he would fill a huge need on the Commanders offensive line.  If Daniels survives the season behind Washington’s current group, more power to him.  However, I’m certain he would embrace Campbell’s presence covering his blindside.  Campbell could end up the top pick in the draft if no QB breaks through and one of the teams that recently took a QB ends up with the first pick.  Campbell is big, athletic, and technically sound and he’s a pretty safe bet to be a really good LT in the NFL if his development continues. 

3. Carolina Panthers:  James Pearce Jr.     Edge     Tennessee

If Bryce Young fails again, a QB becomes a real possibility.  If Ikem Ekwonu fails at LT, a LT becomes a possibility.  If Diontae Johnson leaves in free agency, they may have to take a WR I the first round again after trading up for Xavier Legette this year.  Even if all of those things happen it’s still possible, they take an edge rusher since they traded Brian Burns and the don’t have a long-term plan at the position.  Pearce is still a bit of a projection but he has the size, speed, and skill you look for in a top pass rush prospect and if he has a big year at Tennessee, he could end up the #1 overall pick in this draft. 

4. Denver Broncos:  Kelvin Banks Jr.     OT     Texas

The Broncos could go a lot of different directions.  If Troy Franklin isn’t as good as they hope he’ll be playing with his college QB Bo Nix, they could look for a WR.  If they decide trading Patrick Surtain II for a draft haul is a better strategy to rebuild than paying him, CB becomes a massive need, hello Travis Hunter.  Assuming those things don’t happen, LT Garrett Boles is in the last year of his contract, he’s 32 years old, and he’s had an inconsistent career.  Banks would be a young LT who can grow with Bo Nix or whoever the Broncos end up drafting in 2026 to replace him.  Banks and Campbell will duke it out for who’s the top OT in this class but you can’t go wrong with either one. 

5. Pittsburgh Steelers: Travis Hunter     CB     Colorado

I know, putting the Steelers in the top five is crazy but I have no faith that Russell Wilson has anything left, the WR group is led by George Pickens who isn’t going to be happy if Wilson sucks.  I like the additions on the offensive line but they will be young with Broderick Jones, Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier starting.  The defensive line is aging and the secondary scares me after Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr.  If another QB breaks out, this team should grab him but I don’t think Shaduer Sanders is a Steelers’ kind of pick and I’m not sold on Quinn Ewers yet.  Hunter has elite CB skills and would be a great complement to Porter and this team could even use him as a WR since they have very little behind Pickens. 

6. New Orleans Saints:  Luther Burden III     WR      Missouri

The Saints could conceivably draft a QB if they like someone here but they are pot committed to Derek Carr probably through the 2025 season.  Klink Kubiak is coming in from the 49ers and they are hoping he can turn Carr into a functional QB but it would help if they had more than Chris Olave at WR.  Assuming Dennis Allen isn’t fired and Kubiak has more than one year there, Burden would be a nice fit in the 49ers-like scheme.  Burden is only 5’11 but he’s 208 lbs. and he’s excellent after the catch.  He gives them a nice weapon for their QB of the future, whoever that is.

7. Tennessee Titans:  Will Johnson     CB     Michigan

The Titans traded for L’Jarius Snead, signed him to a big contract, and signed Chidobe Awuzie to be the other CB.  Clearly, they had need at the position.  Snead is a long-term play but Awuzie is a 29-year-old CB who has had some injury issues and is likely just a stop-gap solution.  Johnson is a CB with length and cover skills who would pair quite nicely with Snead long-term and maybe give the Titans the young CB they were hoping they would get when they gambled on the injured Caleb Farley in the 2021 draft.  Farley has never been the guy they were hoping he would be. 

8. New York Giants:  Shadeur Sanders     QB    Colorado

This is a projection but I’m going to have to be convinced he’s worth the trouble.  Sanders flashy attitude is going to turn some people off and this is where I think a team like the Giants might balk at taking him.  Making him the face of the franchise in New York is a gamble.  However, the Giants will be looking for a new QB and Sanders has talent.  I don’t think his father is doing him a lot of favors with the constant turnover of the roster at Colorado and the offensive coaching changes.  Shedeur needs to show consistency, not just the flash plays here and there. His offensive line was not good last season and he needs more help, hopefully he’ll get it this year. 

9. New England Patriots:  Mykel Williams     Edge     Georgia

This one is really a projection.  Williams is a young player on Georgia’s defense and they have a lot of talent.  He makes splashy plays and he’s a great athlete.  He has great size with that athleticism and can play in a multitude of formations, that will fit New England just fine.  Matt Judon is in the last year of his deal, he’s 32, and he’s coming off an injury.  Josh Uche only signed a one-year deal, leaving Anfernee Jennings as the only edge guy they have past 2024.  This assumes their young WRs (Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, and Demario Douglas) show enough promise they don’t feel they need to take one and Caedan Wallace isn’t a disaster at LT.  Otherwise, I say trade up to get Campbell or Banks to solve the LT issue for good. 

10. Arizona Cardinals:  Mason Graham     DT     Michigan

The Cardinals added Darius Robinson in this last draft to the defensive front but they need to keep adding talent there. Graham is one of the best DTs in college football and he’s just scratching the surface.  If Hunter or Johnson are here at CB that should be the pick but with both off the board the Cardinals take Graham over Benjamin Morrison, the next best CB.  Adding talent to this defense is a must.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars:  Malaki Starks     S     Georgia

This will be the most Belichick pick in history when he takes over the Jaguars next year.  They need help at OT, they need help at CB, and Bill takes a safety. They do need help at safety too but OT and CB are far more valuable positions but Starks would help Belichick and Matt Patricia install their defense.  Sorry Jaguars fans, it’s just mean of me to include Patricia.  Wait…are there Jaguars fans? 

12. Indianapolis Colts:  Benjamin Morrison     CB     Notre Dame

The Jaguars passing on Morrison is a huge win for the Colts since they completely passed up any CB help in the 2024 draft, they get a good one here.  Morrison is a good cover man with solid size, top speed, and some toughness to his game.  The Colts hope JuJu Brents can be their CB1 but I think he’s probably better off as a CB2 and Morrison has the upside to be a CB1. 

13. Seattle Seahawks:  Quinn Ewers     QB     Texas

Ewers still needs to put some polish on his game and while he could be a break out player this year, I think he’ll be solid and someone will take a shot on his talent.  The Seahawks have Geno Smith and Sam Howell for now, betting on Ewers upside is worth the risk to get out of QB purgatory. 

14. Minnesota Vikings:  Denzel Burke     CB    Ohio St.

The Vikings best CB is Byron Murphy Jr. who will be a free agent after the season and they are so desperate at the position they signed Shaq Griffin, a guy who’s been released by multiple teams in the last year.  Burke isn’t the flashiest player but he’s a good CB who hold his own against top competition and has been practicing against top competition his entire career at Ohio St.    

15. Miami Dolphins:  Tyler Booker     OG     Alabama

The Dolphins’ offense covers up for a lot of issues on the offensive line because it’s a quick strike offense but they ignored the interior of the line in free agency and draft in 2024, they might regret that.  When they are struggling because Isaiah Wynn is hurt and Robert Jones isn’t Robert Hunt, they will realize they need talent inside.  Booker is a big, physical presence on Alabama’s offensive line and he would be a plug-and-play starter. 

16. Los Angeles Chargers:  Deone Walker      DT    Kentucky

Jim Harbaugh is going to continue to build his team in the trenches first and foremost and his defensive line needs some beef.  Walker is 6’6 345 lbs. of raw power and strength who can step in at NT.  The Chargers drafted Junior Colson at LB to help them finally stop the run, Walker would make Colson that much better by keeping him clean. 

17. Chicago Bears:  JT Tuimoloau     DE     Ohio St.

The Bears didn’t do anything at DE opposite Montez Sweat this off season so it will be a big priority next year.  Tuimoloau had a chance to come out this season and he would have been a fairly high draft pick but he went back to Ohio St because he had some unfinished business.  I think the extra year of development will do him a lot of good and he should be a good pro.

18. Atlanta Falcons:  Harold Perkins Jr.     LB    LSU

This may be way too low for Perkins, he’s a menace on the field.  He is a missile to the ball and he has impressive pass rush instincts. The problem is he’s about 6’1 220 lbs. so while he may play a bit like Micah Parsons running all over the field, he’s two inches shorter and about 25 lbs. lighter than Parsons.  He’s got speed and instincts you can’t teach so I wouldn’t bet against him.  The Falcons could use a defensive playmaker like Perkins.

19. New York Jets: Emory Jones     OT     LSU

The Jets signed Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to be their starting OTs this season and then drafted Olu Fashanu for the future.  Fashanu can take Smith’s LT job but that still leaves the RT job for someone and Jones has been quite good at RT for LSU.  Getting Fashanu and Jones in back-to-back drafts as your starting OTs for the next five years is a smart investment. 

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Quinshon Judkins     RB     Ohio St.

The Buccaneers’ running game was bad last season and while adding Graham Barton at center is a nice start, I don’t think he’s enough to turn it around on is own.  Rachaad White is good player but he’s not a workhorse style RB.  Judkins is exactly that.  He’s 5’11 210 lbs. and he has speed, power, and the contact balance you want in a between-the-tackles runner.  He could have a big year after transferring to Ohio St. and go even higher than this but he’s easily worth a first-round pick. 

21. Dallas Cowboys:  Tetairoa McMillan     WR     Arizona

The Cowboys are going to have plenty to worry about over the next year trying to sign CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons to contract extensions and deciding if they are sticking with Dak Prescott at QB.  One thing is clear no matter what happens with Lamb and Prescott, they need more WR help.  McMillan might be gone before this because at 6’5 he has elite size as an outside receiver.  Lamb can line up at any WR spot so having a guy like McMillan to put outside and just let him play there would work just fine. 

22. Philadelphia Eagles:  Colston Loveland     TE     Michigan

Howie Roseman is known for drafting guys a year before he needs them.  Dallas Goedert will be 30 during the 2025 season and he’s going to start getting expensive.  With two very expensive WRs they need to look at saving money and a rookie TE replacing Goedert would work.  Loveland is a great athlete with all the skills you want in a TE. 

23. Cleveland Browns:  Nic Scourton     DE     Texas A&M

The Browns re-signed Za’Darius Smith at end after he played well opposite Myles Garrett last year, but he’s 32 already.  They need to get younger on the defensive line and Scourton would be a solid choice.  He just transferred to Texas A&M after being a top sack guy at Purdue.  He has great size and is a natural pass rusher.  They need someone to help them keep Garrett clean as they try to take advantage of Garrett’s best years. 

24. Buffalo Bills:  Emeka Egbuka     WR     Ohio St.

Egbuka is coming off a lost year after dealing with an injury most of last year but he returned to Ohio St. to rebuild his draft stock.  He’s an elite mover, he gets in and out of his breaks well and runs good routes.  The Bills drafted Keon Coleman as their big outside WR and Egbuka would be the perfect complementary piece.  Rebuilding Josh Allen’s WR group should be priority if they want to get the best out of their offense. 

25. Baltimore Ravens:  Princely Umanmielen      Edge     Mississippi

The Ravens re-signed Kyle Van Noy again because they just don’t know if they can count on their young edge rushers yet.  They need Odafe Oweh, David Ojabo, or Adisa Isaac to prove they can consistently pressure the QB.  If those guys don’t figure it out, they will have to draft another edge guy.  Umanmielen has been a solid pass rusher at Florida and now he’ll try one more time at Ole Miss this season. 

26. Los Angeles Rams:  Tacario Davis     CB     Arizona

Davis is long and lean but he’s stronger than he looks and the Rams need some help at CB.  They signed veterans Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams and neither is a long-term solution.  They did as much as could reasonably be asked on defense for this upcoming season but they aren’t done remaking the unit.  Davis would be a nice start in redoing the CB position. 

27. Green Bay Packers:  Jabbar Muhammad     CB     Oregon

The Packers have to decide what they are doing with Eric Stokes as he comes towards the end of his rookie deal.  Jaire Alexander is pretty expensive for guy who misses time with injuries.  They like Carrington Valentine and Keisen Nixon but there are question marks all over their CB spot.  Muhammad is a tough cover guy who is transferring to Oregon after being a starter at Washington and he has the requisite skills to be an NFL starter, even if he isn’t the biggest CB. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals:  Abdul Carter     Edge     Penn St.

The Bengals need some juice off the edge and while Carter is more of a LB than a DE, he has the speed and athleticism this team is lacking on the edge.  They could look at a more traditional DE like Jack Sawyer but he’s basically just Sam Hubbard 2.0 and they need to do better.  Carter is a freaky athlete and would probably be a designated pass rusher to start, they need that. 

29. Houston Texans:  Kenneth Grant     DT     Michigan

The Texans signed several veteran free agents on defense and that included Foley Fatukasi and Denico Autry at DT.  Neither of those two are young guys and they could use some youth on the d-line.  Grant is a mammoth 6’3 340 lbs. DT who would help take the pressure off Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson outside.  The other possibility here is going with WR Evan Stewart if they decide not to bring Stefon Diggs back in 2025. 

30. Detroit Lions:  Evan Stewart     WR     Oregon

If Jameson Williams fails to impress this season, it will be time for the team to look for a new deep threat.  They are counting on Williams to finally live up to his first-round billing and be the complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown.  If not, Stewart could be that deep threat.  He’s not a big outside player but he has versatility and downfield speed. 

31. San Francisco 49ers:  Jack Sawyer     DE     Ohio St.

The 49ers redid their DE depth chart behind Nick Bosa with a couple of free agent deals for Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos.  Those deals are essentially one-year deals so if they don’t work out they move on.  Sawyer isn’t the dynamic pass rusher Bosa is but he has a quick first step and some real power in his bull rush, he’s a tough player.  Unless Drake Jackso takes a dramatic step forward this team could use some long-term help at DE opposite Bosa. 

32. Kansas City Chiefs:  Walter Nolen     DT     Mississippi

Chris Jones has a big contract now but he is almost 30 and the other starter at DT, Derrick Nnadi is in the last year of his contract.  Backup Mike Pennel is 33 and there isn’t any proven depth beyond them.  Nolen is big, athletic, and might have a chance to take over for Jones eventually and complement him for now. 

Disclaimer: There is something everyone needs to know about this draft. Somewhere around the middle of round five this draft took a serious dive in quality. There were somewhere around 150-160 good prospects in this draft and then there was a cliff. Some teams reached before the 150th pick so the depth goes a little farther but by the time rounds six and seven came around, it got pretty bleak. There were a few contributing factors. One is the covid year has given players the opportunity to stay in college for an extra year and plenty of guys are taking that opportunity. Second is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities for guys to make money in college. Being a late round pick isn’t as attractive if you can get paid to be a good player in college. Finally, the transfer portal (coupled with NIL) means guys don’t have to go pro to cash in. If another school wants you more than the one you’re at (this is especially true for small school guys), just transfer somewhere and take the payday. There are usually between 100-130 early entry candidates for the draft, this year, there were less than 60 and it showed.

Atlanta Falcons

(8) Michael Penix Jr QB Washington
(35) Ruke Orhorhoro DT Clemson
(74) Bralen Trice Edge Washington
(109) Brandon Dorlus DL Oregon
(143) JD Bertrand LB Notre Dame
(186) Jase McClellan RB Alabama
(187) Casey Washington WR Illinois
(197) Zion Logue DL Georgia

Immediate Impact: None (I almost just put a laughing emoji, except it’s not that funny)

This team signed Kirk Cousins because they want to compete right now, then they drafted no one of consequence. Weird strategy. Are we sure Bill Belichick didn’t run this draft?

Best Value: Edge Bralen Trice

Trice is a quality pass rusher who lacks ideal speed and quickness but he wins with relentlessness and intelligence. He understands pass rush moves and how to use them. He’s a quality player and with only Arnold Ebiketie and Lorenzo Carter ahead of him, he’ll get used by the Falcons.

Sleeper: DL Brandon Dorlus

Dorlus is like the larger version of Trice, he’ll play up front on the d-line instead of at OLB like Trice but he’s a solid player who lacks elite athleticism. He has size and power to play multiple spots on the defensive line and give Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake some options up front. He’s not going to overwhelm anyone but he’s going to be a solid player.

Overall Analysis
This is probably the only draft I like less than the Jaguars draft, at least the Jaguars got someone in round one I like. This draft will be defined by the Michael Penix Jr. pick but not just because he’s a QB and it was a truly baffling pick. The rest of this draft is just underwhelming players with what feels like a lot of low ceilings. The Penix pick has been dissected to hell. The process of paying Kirk Cousins $100 million in guaranteed money and then drafting a soon-to-be 24-year-old rookie QB is just bad team building. Because of the eventual dead money on Cousins’ contract if you want out in two years, you never reap the benefits of a rookie QB contract before you would have to pay Penix. They followed that pick up with more head scratchers.

DT Ruke Orhorhoro is a raw interior defensive lineman who’s a little light against the run and really raw as a pass rusher. He’s not going to help a team looking to win this year very much. Also, they traded up to get him when they already have their starting defensive linemen and if they really wanted a defensive lineman, why not draft Johnny Newton? Again, bad process and a suspect prospect. Bralen Trice and Brandon Dorlus are solid additions to the front seven but this team needs difference makers, especially pass rushers, and none of the three guys (Orhorhoro, Trice, or Dorlus) fill that need. LB JD Bertrand is depth piece at LB. Sixth round RB Jase McClellan is maybe the fourth RB on the depth chart, if he makes the roster. WR Casey Washington might make the roster but that says more about the depth after their top three guys than it does about him. DL Zion Logue is fighting an uphill battle against a veteran starting group and the two defensive linemen they took before him.

Carolina Panthers

(32) Xavier Legette WR South Carolina
(46) Jonathan Brooks RB Texas
(72) Trevin Wallace LB Kentucky
(101) Ja’Tavion Sanders TE Texas
(157) Chau Smith-Wade CB Washington St.
(200) Jaden Crumedy DL Mississippi St.
(240) Michael Barrett LB Michigan

Immediate Impact: WR Xavier Legette

The Panthers remade their WR group with trade for Diontae Johnson from Pittsburgh and the slight move up into round one to get Xavier Legette. Legette was a one-year wonder at South Carolina last season but it was a big year. He’s a big, physical WR with elite speed, it’s his understanding of the position that might slow him down. With Johnson and the returning Adam Theilen, Bryce Young won’t have to rely on Legette in critical situations but they need him to be playmaker in this offense, they don’t have many big-play guys.

Best Value: TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

I liked Sanders as a second-round pick and he went in round 4. The Panthers aren’t great at TE and Sanders can take the job from Tommy Tremble. Young isn’t a great over-the-middle passer but Sanders will be a better target than the other TEs they have so that might improve. Sanders isn’t the most athletic TE but neither was Sam LaPorta in last year’s draft and that worked out just fine.

Sleeper: CB Chau Smith-Wade

The team has Jaycee Horn who they are counting on to be the CB1. They signed veteran Dane Jackson for the other outside spot. Troy Hill is penciled in as the nickel back but he’ll be 33 this year and has bounced around a bit. Smith-Wade is a little undersized which is why he will move inside to slot corner and his toughness and attitude will serve him well. I think he will beat out Hill and he has a chance to be a good nickel corner.

Overall Analysis
The Young trade is still hanging over this team and now Young’s presence is dictating more moves to try to make him better. The Johnson trade was to get Young a dependable pass catcher and then they traded up a spot to get Legette to give Young an outside playmaker. Taking draft picks to give your young QB some help is fine but when you’re doing it trying to fix him, that’s not a great place to be. RB Jonathan Brooks is a very talented RB who will eventually be the starter here but it will take some time. He had knee injury late last season at Texas so he won’t be 100% to start the year. They shouldn’t rush him back, this team isn’t ready to compete anyway, make sure he’s fully healthy before he’s given a big workload. He has a huge upside if they do it right.

LB Trevin Wallace is a superb athlete who relies too heavily on his athleticism to get him out of trouble and gets blocked a little to easily. He’ll sit behind Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell and hopefully pick up some tricks of the trade from those two very talented veterans. Sanders can be very useful and he was a value pick for sure in round four. Smith-Wade was nice pickup for the defense too, he can play. The last two guys are depth pieces at best, like I said, this wasn’t a great draft late.

New Orleans Saints

(14) Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon St.
(41) Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
(150) Spencer Rattler QB South Carolina
(170) Bub Means WR Pittsburgh
(175) Jaylan Ford LB Texas
(199) Khristian Boyd DL Northern Iowa
(239) Josiah Ezirim OL Eastern Kentucky

Immediate Impact: OT Taliese Fuaga

The Saints offensive line was a mess last year with Trevor Penning failing pretty spectacularly at LT and Ryan Ramczyk’s knee injury at RT. They need help and Fuaga is the guy. He’s likely to start at LT for now unless Penning miraculously figures it out there, then they could move Fuaga to the right side. I would guess they might try Penning at RT instead.

Best Value: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

He didn’t have the season people were expecting last year at Alabama but he was still pretty good. He has all the skills you look for in starting CB and while he’s unlikely to start this year with Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo in front of him, he’s a future starting CB. He fell a bit just like so many other defensive players so he was a value pick in round two.

Sleeper: QB Spencer Rattler

I was never on the Spencer Rattler hype train especially when he was the guy people were talking about as a potential #1 overall pick before the season where he ended up getting benched for Caleb Williams at Oklahoma. That said, he has a chance here. Jake Haener is the only guy he has to beat out for the backup job so that’s not too hard. Derek Carr’s contract makes him entrenched on the roster but Klint Kubiak, the new offensive coordinator, is going to have his work cut out for him making Carr any good. Rattler has the arm talent to win over coaches and the confidence to win over the locker room.

Overall Analysis
This team had a first-round pick who’s an instant starter, a second-round pick who’s an eventual starter and then they didn’t pick again until the fifth round. I like Fuaga and McKinstry and I completely understand taking a shot on Rattler. He’s never been my cup of tea but he was well worth a fifth-round pick. WR Bub Means feels like about 10 previous mid to late round WRs the Saints have drafted over the years. He’ll be depth but not much else for a couple of years and then he turns into Tre’Quan Smith. LB Jaylan Ford is a long LB with some athleticism, he’s not contributing unless it’s on special teams. DT Khristian Boyd is a big body who adds some depth, he can’t be worse than the last guy they drafted from Northern Iowa (Penning). It would be nice if they found a diamond in the rough at OT in round seven but it’s a long shot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(26) Graham Barton C Duke
(57) Chris Braswell Edge Alabama
(89) Tykee Smith S Georgia
(92) Jalen McMillan WR Washington
(125) Bucky Irving RB Oregon
(220) Elijah Klein OL UTEP
(246) Devin Culp TE Washington

Immediate Impact: C Graham Barton, DB Tykee Smith

Barton got lost a bit amongst all the OTs that were first round picks because even though he played LT at Duke, he’s moving all the way inside to center. He’ll be an immediate starter for the Bucs and that will allow them to move Robert Hainsey out to guard which will improve two positions and make their offensive line much better. Barton is going to be very good as a center. Tykee Smith was more of a safety at Georgia but his best position in the NFL is at nickel corner. That happens to be a place the Bucs need someone and he looks like a good bet there.

Best Value: WR Jalen McMillan

I love the Washington WRs and McMillan is going to be a really good pro. He was banged up last year and he still impressed me when he played. The Bucs have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but Evans will be 31 this year and Godwin is getting expensive and has had some injury issues. The only other young WR they have is Trey Palmer and he and McMillan have complementary skill sets so these two could be the future. McMillan was a steal as a late third round pick.

Sleeper: RB Bucky Irving

He’s undersized and doesn’t have the explosiveness you look for in an elite back but he runs hard and he never gives up on getting an extra yard. The Bucs have Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds, the depth chart isn’t all that intimidating. I could see Irving carving out a role and finding some success behind and improved offensive line. He’s undersized and not fast, that’s what they said about Kyren Williams too.

Overall Analysis
This draft plugged a couple of holes and got this team some depth. Barton fills a need to make the interior of the offensive line better, he does, in a real way. The Chris Braswell pick gives them some depth at edge rusher after losing Shaq Barrett. He’s not a sure thing but as a third or fourth rusher in sub packages, he’s a solid addition. Tykee Smith’s ability to cover the slot can be very useful on this team. The McMillan pick slightly edges out the Barton pick as my favorite in this draft.

Irving isn’t an overwhelming physical talent but he can be useful NFL RB. OL Elijah Klein might make this team as interior offensive line depth, that’s probably his ceiling. TE Devin Culp will have an uphill climb to make this TE roster, it’s not great but there are plenty of veteran bodies ahead of him.