Author: Nathan Hott

2026 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

I’ve been trying for a while to write this mock draft but every time I did there was another coaching hire and it changes things when that happens.  With 10 head coaching changes there has been massive staff turnover.  There will be over twenty new offensive play callers and somewhere in the mid-teens on the defensive side. The Shanahan/McVay offensive style continues to dominate on offense as Mike LaFleur and Klink Kubiak got head coaching jobs in Arizona and Las Vegas.  The Mike Macdonald Seahawks/Ravens defense becomes more sought after watching the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.  Macdonald was hired in Seattle to counter the Shanahan/McVay duo in the NFC West and he did it all the way to a Super Bowl title.

The Raiders have the number one pick and while they had to wait until after the Super Bowl to name their coach, it didn’t change a thing at #1 overall. This team could have hired a triple option coach, and they still would be taking Fernando Mendoza first.  He might be the least “Raider-like” player in history (he’s so clean he squeaks when he walks) but they need a little less crazy in their lives. 

After that this draft gets weird.  The best players are S Caleb Downs, RB Jeremiah Love, and LB Arvell Reese, by most accounts.  The Jets pick second and desperately need a QB but there isn’t one to take here, you can thank Oregon and their NIL for Dante Moore deciding to skip being a Jet (literally no one blames him).  There are also not a lot of guys teams are going to be willing to trade up for.  I’ve been racking my brain trying to find a trade partner for Arizona at three and it’s nearly impossible (I said nearly). 

Teams are going to have to decide if positional value is going to matter at the top of the draft or not.  Do they want an elite RB (Love) or a good by not great OT (Spencer Fano), an awesome safety (Downs) or a solid CB (Mansoor Delane or Jermod McCoy).  McCoy and WR Jordan Tyson have elite skills, but they are both injury risk players.  I have the guys I like better than others as always and some guys I like less than others.  It’s going to be an interesting draft and if you pick somewhere outside of the top 20, good luck, it gets a bit bleak after that.  The NFL combine is this next week and that’s probably going to make a difference considering there is so little consensus about this draft.  Let’s get to it.   

1. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14): Fernando Mendoza     QB     Indiana

The Pete Carroll experiment was a disaster, and the Raiders are starting over once again with a new coaching staff.  Klint Kubiak is the exact opposite of Carroll, a first-time head coach, he’s under 40, he’s an offensive mind and he’s from the Shanahan coaching tree.  He was fantastic in Seattle and helped Sam Darnold win a Super Bowl.  The Shanahan offense is built for a guy like Mendoza and Kubiak did wonders with an underachieving offensive line in Seattle, he needs to work the same magic on the line in Las Vegas. 

The team needs a new QB and a new leader and luckily for them Mendoza is a great fit for both.  He isn’t a prospect like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye but he’s a good QB.  His comp is somewhere around Jared Goff (hey, he was the 1st pick too).  Goff isn’t an overwhelming talent but give him good talent like he has in Detroit and he wins.  Contrary to popular belief, the Raiders do have some very talented offensive players.  RB Ashton Jeanty had a rough rookie year, but anyone would behind that line.  TE Brock Bowers was injured most of the season but that’s the only thing that slows him down.  Give Jeanty some blocking and get Bowers healthy, and you have two high-level playmakers to start with.  Mendoza is the kind of player who will distribute the ball to his best guys. If the Raiders upgrade the line and get a WR or two, Kubiak could have this offense upgraded in a hurry.    

2. New York Jets (3-14): Arvell Reese     LB/Edge     Ohio St.

Dante Moore really screws this up for the Jets, they need a QB but there just isn’t one here.  Reese is a very good prospect, and he would help this defense tremendously.  The team is looking to pivot on defense, they traded DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner, their two best defensive players and more than likely they will let LB Quincy Williams (Quinnen’s brother) walk in free agency.  That will leave a hole at LB and Quincy was their best blitzer.  Reese is a bit thin to be a full-time edge rusher, but he would fill in as the LB/Edge rusher spot quite well.  The team kept Aaron Glenn after a terrible first year as head coach, but he fired defensive coordinator Steve Wilks during the season and then fired most of the rest of the staff a few weeks after the season.  It’s a bad sign when the guy you hired as head coach a year ago has to fire almost the entire staff he built after one year.  The fact he hired Frank Reich as the offensive coordinator is not a great sign.  The good news is that Reese is so versatile that whomever they replace Glenn with after next season (it feels inevitable) will be able to use Reese on their defense.    

3. Miami Dolphins (TRADE from Arizona): David Bailey     Edge     Texas Tech

I’m calling a major trade here for a guy I really like to go to a team I really don’t.  The Dolphins have a new GM and a new head coach and the GM has already started cleaning house on the roster.  The team traded OLB Jaelen Phillips before the trade deadline (that was not the new GM’s call) and the Jon-Eric Sullivan (the new GM) already cut the oft-injured Bradley Chubb, so this team has hardly any real pass rush.  Chop Robinson needs a partner on the other side of the defense and David Bailey is that guy.  He’s an elite edge rusher who is a bit undersized to be a true DE, so he fits better in a 3-4 defense.  New head coach Jeff Hafley won’t run a pure 3-4 because he’s more likely to mix up his fronts, but Bailey works either way.  Hafley will want to get to the QB since his secondary is abysmal and he won’t have enough draft capital or cap space to fix it in one year.  I’m a huge Bailey fan and he’s going to be a menace off the edge so this one hurts but it’s a swing for a true difference maker on defense and Miami could use one.

4. Tennessee Titans (3-14): Rueben Bain Jr.     DE     Miami

The Titans will be happy with any one of the top three edge rushers (Reese, Bailey, or Bain) and here they get the last one left.  Bain has short arms, if you want to play the drinking game where you take a drink every time someone mentions Bains short arms, you’ll be dead by the end of March.  Yes, he doesn’t have ideal length, but his motor never stops running.  He will fight with every ounce of his being on every play, and this defense could use some more of that.  Robert Saleh likes tough, hard-nosed DEs and Bain would be lucky to play for a defensive mind like Saleh.  The Titans are still building up this roster, and the defense needs a playmaker who isn’t Jeffrey Simmons and Bain can be that guy.  Having Bain lining up on the outside of Simmons almost feels unfair to any offensive line they are going up against.  It’s going to feel like a long day playing against those guys. 

5. New York Giants (4-13): Caleb Downs     SS     Ohio St. 

The Giants made a major play to make John Harbaugh their head coach after he was let go by the Ravens.  Harbaugh has already started putting his imprint on this team and one of his big coaching moves was to hire Dennard Walker as his DC.  Walker was on Harbaugh’s Baltimore staff but was passed over for the DC job when Harbaugh promoted Zach Orr instead of him.  Walker moved on to be Tennessee’s DC and while the defense wasn’t great, it was more his personnel than Walker.  That’s where Downs comes in.  The Ravens were known for using a three-safety look with Kyle Hamilton being the guy they moved around.  Downs isn’t the same player as Hamilton but he’s a pretty versatile piece to the defensive puzzle himself.  Downs can come up and play the run, a skill this defense desperately needs, or he can cover deep.  He could really unlock this defense for Walker and with Tyler Nubin and Jevon Holland already at safety, he’s the perfect guy to complete the three-safety look.    

6. Cleveland Browns (5-12): Francis Mauigoa     OL     Miami

The Browns finally settled on Todd Monken as head coach after freeing Kevin Stefanski from his personal Groundhog Day of hell and managed to piss off DC Jim Schwartz to the point that he quit.  Leave it to the Browns to hire a solid offensive coach just to lose their incredible defensive coach.  This team has two first round picks after trading with Jacksonville last year and that’s good because they need a new QB, a WR1, and at least four new offensive linemen (depending on where you stand on Dawand Jones).  The problem is they will have to wait on a QB because there isn’t one worth taking here.  They could take Jordan Tyson or Carnell Lake at WR but Tyson comes with injury issues and I’m not sure Lake is a true WR1.  The offensive line is in need of a complete overhaul.  Mauigoa played RT at Miami and while he could stick there, he might be a guard.  Either way, he’s a major upgrade for a Browns team that has a lot of nothing at offensive line. 

7. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Washington): Jeremiah Love     RB     Notre Dame

This is a nightmare scenario for the rest of the league as far as I’m concerned.  The Chiefs earned a top ten pick for the first time since 2013 when they drafted Eric Fisher first overall (they had to trade up to draft Patrick Mahomes).  They could go in a few directions, but they are one of the few teams that could justify taking a RB this high.  In this case they move a little draft capital around and move up from nine to seven to get ahead of New Orleans to get their guy.  Once Mahomes recovers from his ACL surgery, they expect to be right back up at the top of the AFC.  A lot of things went wrong this year, and they need to fix a few things but one thing that was bad was the running game.  If they want Mahomes to age gracefully, they should get him one of the best RB prospects of the last decade.  Love is excellent and he is multi-talented.  He’s a fantastic runner and a great receiver out of the backfield.  He would be a major upgrade over Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt (who’s a free agent).  They could look at WRs Carnell Lake, Makai Lemon, or Jordan Tyson but Love is the better player.  They need to upgrade at WR for sure, Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy are not great, but Love opens up so many parts of the offense.  They are bringing back Eric Bieniemy as OC, and he would love to have Love as his new toy on offense. 

8. New Orleans Saints (6-11): Caleb Banks     DT     Florida

The Saints defensive line is Bryan Bresee and a bunch of old guys.  Bresee is long and lean for a DT and Caleb Banks would be an excellent partner inside for him.  He’s 6’6 334 lbs. and while he’s coming off a mostly lost year due to an injury, he looked healthy and dominant at the Senior Bowl.  The Saints have to start restocking this team with young players, especially on defense, and Banks has as high of an upside as anyone in this draft.  It seems like Tyler Shough will be the QB moving forward and they need to get him some help, so WR Carnell Tate is a possibility here, as is RB Jeremiah Love if the Chiefs don’t snake them, but GM Mickey Loomis likes to take linemen early and Banks is a great upside pick. 

9. Washington Commanders (TRADE from Kansas City): Carnell Tate     WR     Ohio St.   

The Commanders have Von Miller, Jacob Martin, Deatrich Wise, Drake Jackson, and Preston Smith all set to be free agent edge rushers for them.  That leaves Dorace Armstrong feeling pretty lonely on a defensive line that didn’t get a lot of pressure even with these guys.  They may have to consider bringing back some of these guys unless they really like TJ Parker or Keldric Faulk.  While Carnell Tate isn’t my favorite WR in this draft, he’s a better overall prospect than Parker or Faulk and he would do wonders for Jayden Daniels.  Deebo Samual and Noah Brown are both free agents, so this team is very thin at WR after Terry McLaurin, and he was hurt most of last season.  This calculus changes if the Commanders are the team that ends up with Brandon Aiyuk from San Francisco. 

10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-11): Jermod McCoy     CB     Tennessee

I could give the Bengals TJ Parker, the DE out of Clemson, but this team has drafted Myles Murphy, Joseph Ossai, and Shemar Stewart over the last several years and drafting another athletic pass rusher without great college production just seems mean.  Trey Hendrickson should move on, and they should re-sign Ossai (he wasn’t bad last season) and then role with those three up front. The secondary could use some new blood.  Cam Taylor-Britt is a free agent and while Dax Hill and DJ Turner held up at CB this team needs some depth.  McCoy missed the 2025 season, but he was excellent in 2024.  He’s a bit of a gamble but he has CB1 skills and could really improve this defense overall.  If he could be an outside CB, it would allow Dax Hill to move around the secondary more.  The Bengals have to address their defense, and McCoy is the biggest upside pick they could make here. 

11. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE from Miami): Spencer Fano     OT     Utah

This would be the perfect way for this to fall for the Cardinals.  If they can pick up some draft capital from a team like Miami, drop down in the draft, and still get a guy like Fano, that’s the best-case scenario.  Mike LaFluer is coming in as the new head coach and while this team has no idea who their QB is going to be (it’s highly likely Kyler Murray is out the door) they do know a new QB will need some help up front.  Jonah Willliams has been the starting RT for the past two seasons when healthy and he wasn’t healthy often enough and he wasn’t good even when he was.  Fano played RT at Utah and did so quite well.  He may not have ideal length for an OT but he’s plenty good and he’s a day-one starter.  Arizona can find a stop-gap QB for a year, build out this offense for LaFluer and then look to find their QB in 2027 when the QB class looks a lot stronger.   

12. Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1): Keldric Faulk     DE     Auburn

The Cowboys lose almost as many edge rushers as the Commanders with Dante Fowler Jr., Sam Williams, Jadaveon Clowney, and Payton Turner are all scheduled to be free agents.  That leaves Donovan Ezeiruaku on one side and no one on the other.  Ezeiruaku showed some flashes but he’s a very undersized pass rusher and they need bodies.  Faulk is the exact opposite of Ezeiruaku, he’s a mammoth DE who shuts down the run like a brick wall but isn’t the most explosive edge rusher.  He’s exactly what they need as a run stopper and the likelihood is the Cowboys will try to bring back at least one of their edge guys (I’m guessing Williams) and Faulk would complement him nicely so Ezeiruaku can be the designated pass rusher.  It’s not a flashy pick but the Cowboys have been pretty consistent attacking the trenches with their first-round picks and they have done well with it.  Faulk would be a solid addition. 

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): Kenyon Sadiq     TE     Oregon

The Rams like to run three TE sets and there’s a running joke that they will take Sadiq and run four TE sets.  Well, here’s the truth, Tyler Higbee is a free agent this off season and is 33 years old and Nick Vannett will also be a 33-year-old free agent.  Vannett is just depth and the Rams still have three TEs with Tyler Ferguson, Davis Allen, and Colby Parkinson, but Parkinson is only signed through 2026.  Sadiq is a talented player who’s still young and may need some time to adjust.  Taking a shot on an athlete like Sadiq who could do some fun things as a rookie while he adjusts to the NFL; that’s a worthwhile choice.  You could say the Rams should take a RT to replace Rob Havenstein, but Warren McClendon III filled in for the injured Havenstein at the end of this season and looked fine.  They also could use help at CB, but this team rarely invests heavily at the position, it’s been a while since they traded for Jalen Ramsey and that was the last big move they made there.

14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9): Olaivavega Ioane     OG     Penn St. 

The Ravens are traditionally a team that looks for the best value in round one and Ioane is arguably the best player available and just so happens to fill a need for this team.  RG Daniel Faalele is a free agent as is C Tyler Linderbaum.  They absolutely want to bring Linderbaum back and there’s no reason to spend money to keep Faalele.  He wasn’t all that good last season and Ioane would be an upgrade.  They need to upgrade at the guard spots if they want to get their offensive back on track, Faalele and Andrew Voorhies were the starters last season and they struggled.  The Ravens will certainly entertain defensive linemen, edge rushers, and corners because they usually do, but Ioane is a better value here than the guys left at those spots.  

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9):  Sonny Styles     LB     Ohio St.

The Buccaneers went 8-9 but couldn’t pull off winning the terrible NFC South, losing the three-way tiebreaker to the Panthers.  Somehow, Todd Bowles survives as the head coach but he’s replacing some staff, including his OC.  The offense should be better if they just get healthy and if they can re-sign Mike Evans to a reasonable contract.  The defense needs more help.  Lavonte David is 36 and is a free agent, it feels like retirement is coming for him.  That would leave a gaping hole in the middle of the defense and Sonny Styles is the perfect guy to fill it.  Styles was a safety to begin with at Ohio St. but eventually grew into a LB body.  He still has elite speed and athleticism for the position and he’s a great replacement for the future Hall of Famer David. 

16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis):  Kayden McDonald     DT     Ohio St.

This could be the spot for QB Ty Simpson, but I don’t think GM Darren Mougey is going to take a QB in the middle of round one for his lame duck coach.  The Jets have three first-round picks in 2027 and it’s a better QB draft.  Here they take Kayden McDonald to replace Quinnen Williams who they traded to Dallas mid-season.  McDonald is a force in the run game, and he’s used to eating up blocks to free up Arvell Reese, the Jets earlier pick in this mock draft.  McDonald is going to climb draft boards a bit because he brings an elite skill every team needs at DT, he stuffs the run.  The Jets defense needs an overhaul, and this first round gives them two big pieces to get it started. 

17. Detroit Lions (9-8): Mansoor Delane    CB     LSU

The Lions have a few areas they have to worry about, the interior of the offensive line had some issues this season, LT Taylor Decker had injury issues and he’s aging (they can also save a lot of money cutting him), and their edge rushers after Aidan Hutchinson are all free agents (Marcus Davenport, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and Josh Pascal).  Given all that, Mansoor Delane is the best prospect here and fills a need too.  CB Terrion Arnold is coming off an injury and was struggling before the injury, Ennis Rakestraw has missed both his seasons with injury, and Amik Robertson and Avonte Maddux are both free agents.  DJ Reed needs some help at CB and Delane is the guy.  He’s not big and he’s not an elite athlete but he’s an excellent coverage player and fits the defense quite well. If Delane goes to the combine and puts on a great athletic performance he will move up the draft boards but I suspect he’s going to test like an average athlete and that is going to leave him right in the middle of the first round.  If there was a LT worth taking I would but I’m not a believer in Kadyn Proctor and the rest of the position is just a bunch of guys you have to hope become legit NFL LTs. 

18. Minnesota Vikings (9-8): Makai Lemon     WR     USC

JJ McCarthy started to show some signs of life towards the end of the season and while that won’t stop the team from finding a veteran QB who can push him, they would be wise to also keep the offense stacked to give him a chance to succeed.  WR Jalen Nailor is a free agent and WR Jordan Addison is going into the last year of his contract.  Addison has had some off-the-field issues (he seems to get arrested in the off season a lot, this year’s charges were dropped) and drafting a WR wouldn’t be the worst idea.  Lemon was a dangerous playmaker at USC this last season.  He’s undersized but he plays with a speed and precision you have to love.  Whoever the QB is, having a playmaker like Lemon is always helpful. He would be an easy Nailor replacement this season and give the team the option of letting Addison walk (or trading him) instead of paying him. 

19. Carolina Panthers (8-9): CJ Allen     LB     Georgia

There is always that one team who drafts a guy higher than the consensus and while Allen is considered a fringe first-rounder, 19th overall would be a bit shocking.  That is unless you consider that the Panthers’ GM is former star LB Dan Morgan.  The Panthers have had some impressive LBs in their history including Sam Mills in the early years, Morgan himself, and recently elected Hall of Famer Luke Kuechley.  They have been wandering in the woods at LB for a few years and really only have Trevin Wallace returning at the position.  If they really want the defense to get better, they need a guy to quarterback the defense and that’s Allen.  He’s a run-stuffing demon who isn’t awesome in coverage, but he’ll be fine.  He could really help this defense take a step forward as a leader on the field. 

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay): Kadyn Proctor     OT    Alabama

I could certainly see the Cowboys taking another edge rusher or a DT here considering they still have needs there but they have never shied away from first round offensive linemen, they actually seem to prefer them.  Proctor has some issues, he’s not technically sound and he’s not consistent with his effort but he’s 6’7 360 lbs. and he’s an excellent athlete.  The Cowboys could move on from Terrace Steele at RT and Proctor gives them options.  Tyler Guyton is their LT but he’s still young and unproven and he played RT in college.  I’m not a fan of Proctor as a LT but he may be better than Guyton, who has struggled at times.  Either way, they can work with both and figure out who is better at RT and LT.  It may turn out that LG Tyler Smith is better than either at LT and Proctor ends up at OG.  Like I said, Proctor gives them options. 

21. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7):  KC Concepcion     WR     Texas A&M

You could convince me the Steelers are drafting a CB or safety if there was a good one still here.  The best available ones aren’t going to help like Concepcion.  WR Denzell Boston might be a higher rated WR on some boards but he’s too much like DK Metcalf and they need to diversify their WR group.  Concepcion is a small speed demon who can run routes from any position and knows how to get open.  He’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands and he’s instantly the WR2 here and could end up with more targets than Metcalf because of his skill set.  This is also the first spot where I think Ty Simpson is a real possibility.  It all comes down to what Mike McCarthy wants at QB.  If Aaron Rodgers is coming back for one last ride with this aging roster, than getting him as much help at WR as possible is a smart move.  If Rodgers retires, then the Simpson pick becomes a much more likely scenario.  They can talk all they want about how much they like Will Howard but I’ll believe it when I see it. 

22. New England Patriots (TRADE from LAC):  Ahkeem Mesidor     Edge     Miami

This would be a move for the Patriots to come up and get a real pass rusher on the edge because Mesidor might be the last one who isn’t strictly a pass rush specialist.  Most of the rest of the group are smaller guys who aren’t great against the run and if Mike Vrabel is going to bring back K’Lavon Chaisson he already has that guy.  There is the issue of Mesidor’s age and injury history, he’ll be 25 on draft night and he spent seven years in college because of all of his injuries.  He had a great 2025 season at Miami, but he might be a one-contract player.  The Patriots have extra draft capital and moving up to get a guy who can contribute immediately seems feasible.  Mesidor gives them options with an aging Harold Landry and he plays with the toughness and grit Vrabel will love.  The Chargers trade out of this spot because they lack draft picks and they need to restock the interior of their offensive line, they can afford to drop down to 31 and still do that while getting an extra pick or two.    

23. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): Brandon Cisse     CB     South Carolina

I nearly gave the Eagles QB Ty Simpson just to give their fans something to cheer about, but I think they are keeping Jalen Hurts.  They are changing offensive coordinators again and it’s an even numbered year so this one should be good (although picking 32-year-old Sean Mannion who’s been coaching two years is going to test that theory).  On defense, Howie Roseman is likely to do everything he can to re-sign Jaelen Phillips on the edge because they don’t have much depth there, they had to bring Brandon Graham out of retirement to finish the season.  The biggest issue for them was outside CB where they kept having to move Cooper DeJean to fill the hole because Kelee Ringo, Jakorian Bennett, and everyone else they tried just couldn’t cut it.  They need someone who allows them to leave DeJean in his best spot as Vic Fangio’s favorite chess piece.  Cisse isn’t the biggest name but he’s a good man cover corner, and he has more size than Aveion Terrell, who is probably the other possibility here.  Cisse can start opposite Quinyon Mitchell and allow DeJean to stay at nickel where Fangio can unleash him where he needs him. 

24. Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville): Jordan Tyson     WR     Arizona St.

This would be a dream scenario for the Browns, get a starting offensive lineman at six overall and still end up with Jordan Tyson in this draft.  Tyson is the boom or bust pick of the WRs which is why he falls here.  On the good side, he’s the one guy who has legitimate WR1 potential in the WR class. The bad side is his injury history.  Three years in college and he never played a full season without an injury.  No one can doubt Tyson’s talent, he’s an excellent player and a true playmaker but the best ability is availability, and he hasn’t shown that yet.  The Browns won’t care at 24th overall, they would sprint this card into the Commissioner at the draft.  Pairing Tyson with Jerry Jeudy and TE Harold Fannin would be a solid foundation to a passing game for the QB they draft in 2027. 

25. Chicago Bears (11-6): TJ Parker      DE     Clemson

The Bears need to get some pass rush off the edge from someone other than Montez Sweat.  Dayo Odeyingbo was a flop as a free agent, Austin Booker missed about half the season, and they have no one else at DE.  Parker didn’t have a good year at Clemson but then again, no one had a good year at Clemson.  He did go down to the Senior Bowl and reminded scouts why he was a popular pick for the top five of this draft before the 2025 season.  Parker is a big, powerful rusher off the edge with good bend and can close. His size and power make him a good fit for what Dennis Allen wants from his edge guys and if the Bears draft Parker, I’ll take him as the starter opposite Sweat over anybody else they have. 

26. Buffalo Bills (12-5): Denzel Boston     WR     Washington

The Bills made the second round of the playoffs but then lost and decided to fire head coach Sean McDermott and give GM Brandon Beane a promotion, a curious decision to say the least.  Beane hasn’t exactly been awesome at the draft, but McDermott took the fall for multiple playoff failures.  Beane promoted OC Joe Brady to head coach and now he needs to fix the roster he built. They need interior offensive line help, that can come later.  They are losing a number of good defensive lineman, that’s a possibility here.  However, the biggest miss has been at WR.  Khalil Shakir was a nice find later in the draft a few years ago but Keon Coleman hasn’t been good enough and their free agent signings haven’t worked out. 

Denzell Boston is a legitimate outside power receiver who would give Josh Allen a downfield threat to complement Shakir.  Boston is the contested catch WR they were hoping Coleman would be but just hasn’t been.  He has speed and power and would open up the offense in ways they have been searching for with guys like Coleman, Gabe Davis, Josh Palmer, and even Brandin Cooks. 

27.  San Francisco 49ers (12-5): Gennings Dunker     OG     Iowa

The 49ers are going to have some issues at WR if they don’t bring back some of their free agents, so WR is a distinct possibility here.  However, there isn’t great value unless they love Chris Bell or Elijah Suratt or maybe Chris Brazzell.  They also need help on the interior of the offensive line and Dunker is going to be a great OG.  He played RT at Iowa, but he profiles as an NFL guard.  At 6’5 315 lbs. he has great size and he brings elite strength and power.  He’s well-versed in the zone blocking scheme San Francisco runs and he could step in at LG immediately.  The 49ers drafted his former teammate Connor Colby late last year and he gave them some decent play early this season when they were banged up.  Dunker is the upgraded version of Colby and could be a mainstay on this line for a decade.  Everything the 49ers do is predicated on good o-line play and it’s about time they invested some higher draft capital in the interior of that line. 

28. Houston Texans (12-5): Monroe Freeling     OT     Georgia

Freeling was not on the early lists of top prospects because he’s still a young guy with only one year of starting experience and he wasn’t good to start the year.  His season started off like he was a first-year starter but his last month he was much more impressive.  Someone is going to take a chance on a guy who’s 6’7 315 lbs. and has the type of length and athleticism this guy shows.  The Texans need offensive line help and Freeling gives them options at OT with an ability to play either side.  He would also allow them to move Tytus Howard to guard permanently and that would really help them out.  It’s probably a toss-up between Freeling and Caleb Lomu from Utah but I think Freeling is going to show off his athleticism at the combine and that will help him stand out. 

29. Los Angeles Rams (12-5): Ty Simpson     QB     Alabama

The Rams have a good roster and most of their free agents are aging guys like RT Rob Havenstein and TE Tyler Higbee who they already have younger replacements for.  They are going to continue to try to win as long as Matt Stafford is willing to play QB so there’s no rebuild or reset happening yet.  They made a trade last year to pick up an extra first round pick in this draft, that was the earlier pick where they took TE Kenyon Sadiq.  This is their pick and here they take their QB of the future Ty Simpson.  Their backup Jimmy Garappolo will be a 35-year-old free agent this off season and there is no reason to believe Stetson Bennett can be their eventual replacement for Stafford.  Simpson needs some time to develop since he wasn’t a long-term starter in college, so this is the perfect setup for him.  McVay can develop him behind Stafford for a year or two (Stafford is 38).

30. Denver Broncos (14-3): Emmanuel McNeil-Warren     S     Toledo

The Broncos don’t have a lot of holes which is why they were in the AFC Championship game this last season.  They do have a few free agents who could leave like DE John Franklin-Myers, LB Alex Singleton, and RB JK Dobbins but there aren’t a lot of great options here for replacing those guys.  Another area that could use some reinforcements is the secondary.  S PJ Locke and nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian are both free agents.  Getting a guy like McNeil-Warren for the safety spot would allow them to use Jahdae Barron more freely and gives them depth behind their starters.  McNeil-Warren is a big safety out of Toledo so he’s coming from a small school, but he’s got the size and athleticism to compete at the NFL level.  Toledo has been putting guys in the league lately and he’s the next one. 

31. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from New England): Caleb Lomu     OT     Utah

The Chargers have to fix the interior of the offensive line and while Lomu is technically an OT, they might as well try the best player available on the line and see if it works.  Lomu would also be a nice insurance policy considering how often they seem to have injury issues at OT.  They can give him a chance to step in at either left or right guard and see what works. He played LT at Utah so if he’s more comfortable on the left side, he can play next to Rashawn Slater and learn from an elite player, assuming Slater is healthy.  Lomu is only a third-year sophomore, so he still has plenty of growing to do and he needs to get stronger.  He’s a good athlete so he’ll fit right in with Slater and RT Joe Alt, that would just leave the other two inside positions to fill in.  I don’t think Lomu will be the only offensive lineman drafted by the Chargers.

32. Seattle Seahawks (14-3): Colton Hood     CB     Tennessee

While Seattle fans might call for another first-round guard to replace Anthony Bradford, their favorite whipping boy, this team won the Super Bowl because of the defense.  That defense has three guys from the secondary; CB Josh Jobe, CB Riq Woolen, and safety Coby Bryant, who are all free agents.  It feels like Woolen’s time in Seattle is probably over and Jobe might get a decent contract from someone else.  They need to be sure to keep the quality of the secondary up and Colton Hood would be a strong addition at CB.  Hood might even go higher than this if his testing numbers at the combine are good.  He had a solid week at the Senior Bowl with a few tough moments but he’s still young and has good size and good coverage skills.  He could be an upgrade over Jobe from a talent standpoint and much more consistent than Woolen.    

NFL Coaching Carousel

The NFL took the crazy season to a new level with John Harbaugh getting fired by the Ravens after 18 seasons and Mike Tomlin walking away from the Steelers after 19 years.  These were the two longest tenured coaches in the league, and both are Super Bowl winners.  Add them to two-time winning Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland and the only AFC North coach coming back next year is Zac Taylor in Cincinnati.  Taylor could have been fired but the Bengals don’t like to fire coaches with time left on their contracts so Taylor will be on the firing line next year.

There will be nine new head coaches next year, that’s a lot.  It’s almost always somewhere between 5-8 each off season so nine is on the high side, although it’s not unheard of.  The jobs are the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, and Arizona Cardinals.  I’ll take a look here at each job and give you some thoughts on who’s up for the job, who I would recommend, and my prediction for each opening.  At the end I’ll throw in some thoughts on some coordinator openings that are intriguing.  Let’s dive in.

New York Giants

Out: Brian Daboll-fired in season

In: John Harbaugh-finalizing a deal

The Giants wasted no time getting Harbaugh in for an interview and they are moving fast.  With Mike Tomlin looking to take at least a year off, Harbaugh is the top candidate for pretty much everyone and he was just deciding where to interview.  The Giants are a good job with QB Jaxson Dart, RB Cam Skattebo, WR Malik Nabers, LT Andrew Thomas, DT Dexter Lawrence, Edge rushers Adbul Carter and Brian Burns, and some other young talent on defense.  Having QB, WR, LT, DT, and DE looking good means your team is off to a good start.  It will be interesting to see how it shakes out with GM Joe Schoen, who has been retained so far, and a new coach with as much leverage as Harbaugh has. 

The luck may have turned for the Giants because they have had a series of misses at head coach and were looking at another tough coaching search without a great list of candidates until Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti gifted them Harbaugh.  Maybe they would have ended up with Stefanski but no one has the resume of Harbaugh at this point (since Tomlin’s not taking a job).

My Recommendation: Definitely would have been Harbaugh.

My Prediction: None, Harbaugh already has the job.

Baltimore Ravens

Out: John Harbaugh

Top Candidates: Jesse Minter, Anthony Weaver, Kevin Stefanski, Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores, Klint Kubiak, Vance Joseph

With Harbaugh gone and likely taking OC Todd Monken with him to New York, this is a complete reboot of the coaching staff.  The Ravens have been built on their defense for a long time and have had some excellent defensive coaches who have moved elsewhere.  Mike Macdonald is the one that got away as he’s the head coach in Seattle now.  If they are looking for someone similar, Jesse Minter is that guy.  Minter is the Chargers DC and he’s been awesome.  He’s still young at 42 but he has great experience.  He coached for the Ravens as a defensive assistant, was also the National Championship winning DC under Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, and now has had two excellent years running the Chargers defense. 

Anthony Weaver is another coach who spent time on the defensive staff for the Ravens before he took over the Dolphins defense a couple years ago. People rave about Weaver as a leader and he once served as the Assistant Head Coach of the Ravens for John Harbaugh.  Weaver also worked with Mike Vrabel when Vrabel was in Houston.  Minter and Weaver should be at the top of the Ravens list because they know the team, they understand the culture, and they are two guys who have earned their shot. 

Kevin Stefanski is an excellent coach who’s been in a horrible situation.  Jim Schwartz has been a great defensive coordinator for a long time in the NFL.  So has Brian Flores and he deserves another shot.  Vance Joseph is coordinating the best defense in the league and he’s worthy too. 

My Recommendation: Hire Minter, he can keep the culture while making the right changes.

My Prediction: Jesse Minter – The Ravens regret letting Mike Macdonald get away, Minter is the closest they get to him. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Out: Mike Tomlin

Top Candidates: Brian Flores, Chris Shula, Kevin Stefanski, Nate Scheelhaase, Anthony Weaver, Ejiro Evero

The Steelers don’t do this very often, only 3 coaches since 1969.  When they hired Bill Cowher and when they hired Tomlin, those weren’t hot coaching candidates, they were just the guys they liked the best in the interview room.  That makes this tough because we aren’t in the room to see what they see.  Their list has some young and intriguing choices like Chris Shula and Nate Scheelhaase from the Rams.  Shula, the grandson of the great Don Shula has been Sean McVay’s DC for the past two seasons and he’s been excellent.  After the team lost Aaron Donald to retirement and Jalen Ramsey left, everyone expected a downturn, it didn’t happen.  Shula is a bright, young defensive mind.  Nate Scheelhaase is the passing game coordinator for Sean McVay’s Rams and he’s seen as an up-and-comer.  He’s only been an NFL coach for two seasons, he came from being Iowa St.’s OC to work with McVay.  He could blow them away in the process. 

Stefanski, again is an excellent coach but probably not their guy.  Anthony Weaver might have some of that Tomlin interview energy and that also goes for Evero.  Neither one of them coordinated elite defenses this year but it is more about them as leaders than X’s and O’s guys.  Flores spent a year coaching LBs for Tomlin after he left Miami and so there is some familiarity to the organization.

My Recommendation: Anthony Weaver. He feels like a guy who could keep the Tomlin culture going but give it a refresh. 

My Prediction: Chris Shula-he just feels like the type of young guy they will like. 

Atlanta Falcons

Out: Raheem Morris

Top Candidates: Jeff Hafley, Mike McDaniel, Kevin Stefanski, Klint Kubiak, Anthony Weaver, Aden Durde

The Falcons are starting the whole thing over with Matt Ryan being hired to be President of Football Operations and he’s in charge of hiring a new GM and head coach.  I’m not sure where he’s leaning at GM but he could have some strong feelings on head coach. Jeff Hafley coached at Boston College and Matt Ryan is an alumnus.  They weren’t there at the same time but certainly Ryan knows Hafley.  Ryan did cross paths with Mike McDaniel who was an offensive assistant for the Falcons when Ryan was the QB.  Ryan had his most success under Kyle Shanahan and that’s who McDaniel worked under before being a head coach.  McDaniel also would have crossed paths with Jeff Ulbrich in Atlanta when they were both assistants.  The Falcons would like to keep Ulbrich as their DC and McDaniel may be open to that.

Stefanski is going to be up for most jobs so I’m mentioning him here.  He isn’t connected to Ryan but his offense would work for the Falcons.  Klint Kubiak is a hot OC who could get a job and he runs the Shanahan offense too.  Weaver is a guy well liked in the league and well respected in coaching circles.  Aden Durde is a new name for most but he’s the DC in Seattle under Mike Macdonald so his name is going to keep coming up. 

My Recommendation: Mike McDaniel, if anyone is going to save Michael Penix as a franchise QB, it’s him.

My Prediction: Mike McDaniel- I just can’t get the fit with Ryan and with Ulbrich out of my mind. The only question is will McDaniel like the idea of Michael Penix at QB.  If he doesn’t, he’s the most overqualified OC candidate for the top teams looking for an OC. 

Miami Dolphins

Out: Mike McDaniel

Top Candidates: Jeff Hafley, Kevin Stefanski, Robert Saleh, Joe Brady, Anthony Campanile, Chris Shula

The Dolphins fired GM Chris Grier during the season and then waited a few extra days after then end of the season to fire Mike McDaniel.  The firing coincided with the Ravens firing John Harbaugh and felt like a reaction to it and many assumed owner Stephen Ross might make a play for Harbaugh.  That didn’t happen and he hired Jon-Eric Sullivan as GM from Green Bay.  Sullivan was in Green Bay a long time and so he has connections to current Packers DC Jeff Hafley and former Packers defensive assistant Anthony Campanile.  Hafley might just have a leg up here because of that but Campanile has really impressed this year as the Jaguars DC.  It could be a dogfight between the two of them.  This isn’t the most attractive job because you have to figure out the QB situation with Tua. 

Stefanski, yep he’s still here and is a solid candidate.  Saleh is a guy who really rehabbed his coaching stock by taking the MASH unit that is San Fransico’s defense and doing quite well.  He made people remember what made him such a great coach before the Jets fiasco.  Joe Brady hasn’t gotten a lot of requests to interview and it may be because the Bills are still playing.  I’m throwing Chris Shula in here but I wouldn’t think he would want to take his first head coaching job where his grandfather was such a legend, that’s a lot to ask. 

My Recommendation: Jeff Hafley, he seems ready for the move and as long as he finds an OC, he should be good.

My Prediction: Jeff Hafley- It feels like he’s going to get a job this cycle and this is the best chance he has at one.  The connection to Sullivan wins out. 

Tennessee Titans

Out: Brian Callahan

Top Candidates: Kevin Stefanski, Arthur Smith, Klint Kubiak, Matt Nagy, Mike McCarthy, Mike McDaniel

The Titans are in a unique position because it feels like they want an offensive mind to coach Cam Ward.  The defensive coordinator group is better stocked with young talent than the offensive side so it’s a different search.  Stefanski and McDaniel are the best offensive minds available this cycle and the Titans may luck out that the better jobs will be filled by defensive candidates.  Stefanski would be an excellent fit and he would love the idea of having his QB and it not being Deshaun Watson.  McDaniel could also do wonders with Ward. 

Arthur Smith was the Steelers OC but the best work in his career was as the OC of the Titans when Mike Vrabel was the coach, the ownership group hasn’t forgotten him.  Matt Nagy has a connection to GM Mike Borgonzi who used to be in Kansas City.  I can’t see a team with a young QB going with Nagy after his time in Chicago. Also, the Titans are going to be opening a new stadium and Matt Nagy is not the name they need selling tickets.  Klint Kubiak is an excellent young offensive mind but I’m not sure he’s up for this job.

My Recommendation: Kevin Stefanski, they would be lucky to get such a good coach after firing Mike Vrabel and whiffing on Brian Callahan. 

My Prediction: Kevin Stefanski- he’s such a good coach and here he gets to build out his offense around a QB he might actually like.  The Titans get lucky that the Giants got Harbaugh and Ravens going with a guy they know well.  This is a good match. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Out: Pete Carroll

Top Candidates: Brian Flores, Vance Joseph, Jesse Minter, Ejiro Evero, Davis Webb, Klint Kubiak

The Raiders are hiring a coach again, it’s a yearly ritual in Sin City.  There was an early rumor that Tom Brady wants Brian Flores and to bring in Brian Daboll as his offensive coordinator, that would be way too good for this franchise.  They haven’t had competent coaching like that since Jon Gruden…the first time.  They are looking at the usual suspects at this point.  Vance Joseph, Jesse Minter, and Ejiro Evero are defensive coordinators who deserve a shot, or a second shot in Joseph’s case.  Kubiak is the offensive mind a lot of teams are kicking the tires on.  The one outside the box idea is Davis Webb.  Webb was a backup/third-string QB in the league not long ago and he’s only 30.  Currently, he’s Sean Payton’s QB coach in Denver but he’s a guy on the fast track.  The potential pairing of Vance Joseph as head coach and Webb as the OC would make some sense too.  They are both currently on the Broncos staff. 

My Recommendation: Move heaven and earth to convince Brian Flores to take the head job and for Brian Daboll to be his offensive coordinator.

My Prediction: They will screw this up.  That’s my prediction, they will screw this up.  Unless Brady can pull off the Flores/Daboll thing, this could go badly.  I’ll pick Flores for now but more likely they hire Webb without getting him some help to fix the o-line or they hire Evero and he can’t get a decent OC which will screw him over. 

Cleveland Browns

Out: Kevin Stefanski

Top Candidates: Mike McDaniel, Grant Udinski, Tommy Rees, Jim Schwartz, Nate Scheelhaase, Dan Pitcher

The Browns are clearly looking for a young offensive coordinator type who doesn’t understand how bad this job is.  Their preferred candidate is Mike McDaniel because at least he’s been a head coach.  Grant Udinski (Jaguars), Tommy Rees (Browns), Nate Scheelhaase (Rams), and Dan Pitcher (Bengals) are all young offensive guys who are some sort of coordinator (Scheelhaase is the passing game coordinator, the others are OC) for play calling head coaches.  Jim Schwartz has been the Browns awesome DC but he was a failed head coach once and hasn’t gotten a second shot.  None of these young coaches should take this job as their first job, they can all wait for a better opportunity.  McDaniel is said to be thinking about taking a good OC job instead of one of the bad head coach jobs (that would be the Browns, Cardinals, and maybe the Raiders he would be avoiding).

My Recommendation: When they strike out on the young OCs they should promote Schwartz and then make Rees the play calling OC.  This team is in transition and I’m not sure any hire is a long-term thing. 

My Prediction: Mike McCarthy- Once the Browns strike out on all of these guys, including McDaniel taking the OC job with the Eagles or Lions or someone like that, they pivot.  McCarthy is looking for a third chance at a head coaching job, he wouldn’t object to Jim Schwartz staying on as defensive coordinator, and at least he’s willing to do the job. 

Arizona Cardinals

Out: Jonathan Gannon

Top Candidates: Vance Joseph, Robert Saleh, Arthur Smith, Thomas Brown, Matt Burke, Klint Kubiak

The Cardinals fired Jonathan Gannon and rightfully so but there were only expected to be maybe five openings at the time, instead there are nine.  The Cardinals are at the bottom of the pecking order with the Browns.  The Kyler Murray situation at QB is murky at best, the offensive line needs an overhaul, and the team has been bad for a while.  Vance Joseph was an excellent defensive coordinator for them at one time, so his name is here.  Robert Saleh would be a guy to bring a complete change from the personality of Jonathan Gannon.  Gannon had a reputation for being an odd duck and not much of a motivator, Saleh is the exact opposite. 

Arthur Smith has ties to the Titans organization and GM Monti Ossenfort was with the Titans for a time.  Thomas Brown is with the Patriots but he’s been with a few organizations and has a lot of fans in the league.  He may not get a head coaching job this cycle but I think he’s a likely OC for one of the better OC openings in the league.  Matt Burke is the DC in Houston and has been an excellent DC who doesn’t get as much credit as he should because his head coach DeMeco Ryans is a defensive guy.  Burke calls that defense and should get more credit.  Kubiak could be the guy here, but he might be better off passing on this job and staying Seattle’s OC if he can’t do better.

My Recommendation: Anthony Weaver or Robert Saleh.  Jonathan Gannon was such a strange personality this team needs to think about getting a more dynamic football guy.  Saleh or Weaver fit that mold.    

My Prediction: Vance Joseph- He deserves another shot, he got shortchanged when he was the head coach in Denver.  It’s not an easy job and it’s not that desirable but Joseph’s knowledge of the franchise should make him more amenable to taking the position. 

Quick Hitters

One of the more interesting things about this hiring cycle is that most of the good young coaches teams are looking at are defensive guys.  Jesse Minter (Chargers DC), Anthony Weaver (Miami DC), Jeff Hafley (Green Bay DC), Anthony Campanile (Jacksonville DC), Chris Shula (Rams DC), Ejiro Evero (Carolina DC), Aden Durde (Seattle DC), and Matt Burke (Houston DC) are roughly in their 40s (Shula is 39, Burke turns 50 in March).  These are guys who are seen as being ready to step into head coaching roles.  It’s been said that there aren’t a lot of good young offensive guys which is why Kevin Stefanski and Mike McDaniel are getting so many interviews, good offensive guys who are still young but are on their second job.  Klint Kubiak is the only young offensive coordinator getting serious consideration and even he has people wondering if he’s ready. 

With that said, there are a ton of really young up-and-coming offensive minds that just aren’t quite ready for the top job yet but should be getting OC jobs for some of these defensive guys.  It’s actually a really good thing for a few of the older DCs like Brian Flores, Robert Saleh, Vance Joseph, and Jim Schwartz because these guys may have failed before because they missed on the offensive coordinators they hired.  Certainly, that was true for Flores in Miami and Saleh had OC and QB problems with the Jets. 

Davis Webb (Denver QB coach), Grant Udinski (Jacksonville OC), Nate Scheelhaase (Rams passing game coordinator), Mike LaFluer (Rams OC), Klay Kubiak (San Francisco OC), Thomas Brown (New England passing game coordinator), Tommy Rees (Cleveland OC), Klayton Adams (Dallas OC) and Dan Pitcher (Cincinnati OC) might be guys to look at if your team needs a new OC and there are a few established teams looking to make changes there.  Philadelphia, Detroit, LA Chargers and Kansas City are all looking for new OCs for their well-established head coaches.  The young guys may stay with the coaches they are already working with but they should be looking to move for a play calling job if they don’t have one right now. 

The 4 Big OC Jobs

Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid has allowed both Eric Bienemy and Matt Nagy to call plays for him so this is an attractive job.  I don’t think he’ll put one of these young guys in charge of rebooting the Mahomes offense though.  I think he hires Kliff Kingsbury.  Mahomes knows Kingsbury well and while it won’t be the Air Raid from their college days, it will be a better passing game than Nagy had going last year.

Philadelphia Eagles – This could be the Brian Daboll spot when Las Vegas screws up the Flores/Daboll pairing.  Nick Sirianni needs another new offensive coordinator and it’s an even numbered year so it should be a good one this time.  Kevin Patullo (2025), Kellen Moore (2024), Brian Johnson (2023), Shane Steichen (2022), it’s a pattern.  Daboll is a good offensive mind and he’s better off as a play caller in the booth and not coaching on the sidelines, he’s too emotional on the sidelines.  This is a GM Howie Roseman thing, Sirianni isn’t hiring this OC.  He’s going to shoot for the moon with Daboll and McDaniel first but he may have to settle for Mike Kafka.    

Detroit Lions – In their dreams they get Mike McDaniel if he doesn’t get one of the better head coaching jobs.  If it’s between the Browns head coaching job and Detroit’s OC job, take the Detroit job Mike.  I think he gets the Atlanta job so they have to move on.  This is where one of the young guys could go shine.  One of McVay’s guys, Mike LaFluer or Nate Scheelhaase, would be excellent.  Maybe they go the Shanahan tree and grab Klay Kubiak, he’s the younger brother of Klink Kubiak and is San Fransico’s OC.  The dark horse for me here is Thomas Brown, the Patriots passing game coordinator.  No ties that I know of, but he is well respected in the league and he did a great job for the three games he was promoted to OC in Chicago last year before he then got promoted again to head coach.  I don’t want to see the Patriots lose him because if Josh McDaniels does ever get another head coaching shot, I would like Brown to take over as OC, but that’s a pipe dream, he’s getting an OC job before McDaniels could possibly leave.

Los Angeles Chargers – This one is a mystery to me because Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have an extensive network in the league at this point.  He took most of his staff from guys his brother John had in Baltimore but he just fired Greg Roman so there aren’t any others to pick from.  Mike Kafka (Giants OC/interim HC), Matt Nagy (Kansas City OC), or another retread OC feels like a Harbaugh pick. He should really look to the Rams or 49ers staffs.  One name that has a tie to the Chargers organization but not Harbaugh is Miami Dolphins OC Frank Smith.  With Mike McDaniel gone I would assume they are moving on from him but I believe he’s still under contract with Miami until they hire a new coach.  Smith is well known for his offensive line and run game prowess so that would fit quite nicely with what the Chargers need.   

College Football Coaching Carousel

The college football coaching carousel is already insane and it’s only going to get worse. There are more firings to come and there will be big time coaches moving around opening more jobs as one goes from one job to another.  I’m going to take a shot at predicting who ends up at each spot, I’m aware it’s a fool’s errand but here I am.  A few notes to keep in mind, Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule have signed extensions with Indiana and Nebraska so they are not leaving their current roles.  I’m not including Joe Brady, the Bills offensive coordinator because I don’t think the top jobs would wait until after Buffalo’s season and he’s going to be an NFL coaching candidate. 

I’m going to start at the bigger jobs to look at how the dominos fall as one coach moving opens other jobs.  There are eight jobs in the Power 4 conferences (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) currently open; LSU, Florida, Penn St., Arkansas, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, UCLA, and Stanford.  I think Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida St. are all going to also be open eventually.  In this exercise I don’t think Wisconsin or Michigan St. will fire their coaches and I’ll get to them later.  The one other Big Ten job that could come open is Maryland depending on how their season ends, and it could realistically go either way.  The breakdown for me is LSU, Florida, Penn St., Auburn, and Florida St. would be the top five. Kentucky, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St., UCLA, and Stanford would be the next six. Then I’ll get to the positions that come open from coaching taking some of those jobs.  Hope you like dominos.  There’s a solid group of head coaches from the Group of 6 teams (G6) and there are a few top level coordinators in the Power 4 who will get jobs this cycle.  Let’s get started.

LSU

The is the top job on the market, sorry to Penn St. and Florida but LSU has the advantage.  Three of the last four coaches at LSU; Nick Saban, Les Miles, and Ed Orgeron, all won National Championships.  Obviously, Brian Kelly is the one who didn’t but the fact that Orgeron and Miles did should be proof that LSU has advantages.  Saban is a legend, it’s not strange he won a title there, Miles and Orgeron are not great coaches, I’m not even sure they were good coaches, but they managed to win National Championships at LSU.  Florida has won National Championships but it took legendary coaches like Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer to win there, mere mortals have watched their careers wither in Gainesville.   

LSU has unbelievable instate talent with minimal instate competition for that talent.  At Florida you’re competing with Florida St. and Miami, plus other schools like UCF, USF, FAU, and others are poaching the depth in the state from you.  Penn St. does have some instate competition from Pitt but they also have Ohio St., Michigan, and others trying to pick off talent from Pennsylvania which is not as talent rich as Louisiana.  

Financially, LSU, Penn St., and Florida are not going to be that much different so it comes down to the situation.  The one issue that could hold back LSU is the governor of Louisiana getting involved.  I don’t think he was wrong to want to limit AD Scott Woodward after he’s given out two of the biggest buyout contracts in college football history (Kelly at LSU, and Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M).  However, Woodward does have a solid track record overall hiring coaches. He poached Kim Mulkey for LSU’s women’s basketball program and hired Jay Johnson as the baseball coach.  They just announced Woodward is out as AD and that’s not going to be helpful.  Firing him was unnecessary, I think I would have just kept him out of the contract negotiations. By the way, he wasn’t the only person who would have had to sign off on the contract for Brian Kelly. 

The Pick: Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss)

I’m going with them winning the Lane Kiffin sweepstakes over Florida.  They will outbid Florida but also offer the highest upside for Kiffin.  There’s a feeling Kiffin wants to get back to Florida after his stint as FAU’s head coach and he does have a certain Florida vibe, maybe it’s the visor.  However, Kiffin has always looked for the next step and I think he will see the path to a National Championship is easier at LSU than Florida and that’s his choice.  This would lead to an opening at Ole Miss; I’ll address that later. 

Runner up: Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri).  If Kiffin takes Florida, LSU pivots quickly. 

Disaster candidate: Jimbo Fisher (currently collecting buyout money from Texas A&M).  If they strike out on Kiffin, Drinkwitz, and a couple of other names, would Woodward have called up his old buddy from Texas A&M?  Fisher was the offensive coordinator at LSU in 2003 when Saban led them to a National Championship.  Somehow, I don’t think the LSU fanbase would be happy with him being the pick.  With Woodward out this is much less likely but he does still have old ties to LSU.

Sneaky Good Idea: Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator). Something tells me he’s going to be a good head coach.

Florida

Penn St. and Florida are the next best jobs and I’m addressing the Florida job next because it’s linked to LSU and I don’t think there’s ton of overlap with Penn St.  Florida’s number one choice is Kiffin, if they lose him to LSU, it’s a more wide-open field.  Drinkwitz is a possibility but he’s not a slam dunk and I think they could lose Drinkwitz to another team while they pursue Kiffin.  Drinkwitz might prefer being a different SEC school’s number one choice instead of feeling like he’s taking Kiffin’s leftovers.  I’ll get to Drinkwitz below.  USF Alex Golesh is a name to watch here but I’m not sure he’s a big enough name for the Gators.  They just did the “hire the hot group of five” (or six now) coach with Billy Napier and it didn’t work.  They will aim higher and if they miss on Kiffin and Drinkwitz, there is one major conference coach who will crawl over broken glass for the Florida job and not care if he’s the third choice or the 15th choice. 

The Pick: Jedd Fisch (Washington)

Fisch bounced around in his coaching career as an assistant for many years before finally landing the Arizona job, then he quickly jumped to Washington two years ago.  He rebuilt Arizona quickly; he then took over a decimated roster after Kalen DeBoer left Washington for Alabama and he has them looking pretty good in year two.  He went to school at Florida and started his career as a GA there and he would be ecstatic to make Florida his destination job.  I’m not sure Fisch has ever stayed anywhere more than three years but he would certainly hope to change that with a move to Gainesville.  He’s not the sexiest hire but he might be the right one for Florida.  This would open the Washington job and there’s an excellent candidate out there for that one. 

Runner up: Well, Fisch is really third on my list for them but is it’s not him they could go with Golesh or maybe they make a run at Rhett Lashlee at SMU.  I do think the Florida fans may want to temper their expectations.

Disaster Candidate: James Franklin.  Sorry but Franklin is a great recruiter who isn’t a great coach. There is too much pressure at Florida and Franklin would crumble under it. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Clark Lea (Vanderbilt). He should be high on everyone’s list but I’m not sure Florida would hire Vanderbilt’s coach.   

Penn St.

Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule already used this job to get extensions and raises at their current schools and other coaches may do the same.  The pressure to win at Penn St. is enormous and the fact they fired James Franklin after he basically won ten games every year is crazy.  However, they weren’t wrong to fire Franklin if they want to truly compete for National Championships, he had taken them as far as he could.  What Penn St. needs is a real coach, not just a guy who can recruit and then tries to hire coaches to coach.  They need the guy who can raise the level of play of the great players they can get.  Great players have gone to Penn St. and played well but they are usually guys who were 4- or 5-star recruits and they don’t actually get better they’re just good players to start with.  Even if you are a top recruit, it doesn’t mean coaching can’t make you better.  Guys like Nick Saban and Kirby Smart routinely get 5-star guys but they also develop them into the best player they can be, that was not Franklin. The guy they need isn’t the flashy name but he’s the right coach. 

The Pick: Matt Campbell (Iowa State)

I hate giving Iowa St. credit in any way but Matt Campbell is an excellent football coach.  He routinely takes two-star and three-star recruits and makes them way better players.  What he could do with the upper-level recruits Penn St. can get would be scary.  He’s always had good coordinators but Campbell is a legitimately good football coach himself.  He’s rebuffed many opportunities in the past but Penn St. is one of the premiere coaching jobs in the country, it’s in an elite conference, and there is no chance Iowa St. can compete financially with the Nittany Lions.  It’s time for Campbell to make the move and competing in the Big Ten is where he belongs.  It would be ripping out the hearts of Iowa St. fans again if Penn St. takes a great coach from them.  To all those Penn St. fans thinking he’s not a big enough name, just look at your wrestling program and remember where Cael Sanderson came from, you’re in good hands. 

Runner up: Jon Sumrall (Tulane) Sumrall is arguably the best G6 coach on the carousel this season, he’s been excellent at both Troy and Tulane.  He’s headed to the SEC in my opinion but Penn St. would be lucky to have him.  I would be more than happy to see him stick around Tulane until Kirk Ferentz retires, he would be at the top of my board. 

Disaster candidate: Brian Kelly (former LSU). There’s a thought that Kelly’s “failure” at LSU (he did win a lot just not enough for them) was because he wasn’t a culture fit.  His terrible Louisiana accent notwithstanding, Kelly’s personality was his downfall. Some would call him gruff, that’s the polite way to put it, he’s a jerk, always has been.  I don’t think his personality would endear him to the Penn St. faithful.  He needs a lower profile place where they can hide his personality.

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison).  He’s a great coach from the region who took over James Madison after Curt Cignetti and has kept them winning.  He won at Holy Cross before that.  He’s not a big enough name but he might just be a really good coach and someone is going to hire him.  They may be missing out.

Auburn

Auburn has high hopes for their football program and they keep grasping at straws trying to find the solution at head coach, it has not gone well.  Hugh Freeze is in over his head and they need another new coach.  They went way outside the box when they hired Bryan Harsin from Boise St. a few years ago, that was a disaster. Then they overcorrected with thinking Freeze was the right fit.  They should try to hit one straight down the fairway, a good coach who can fit anywhere. 

The Pick: Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)

Remember I said Drinkwitz might prefer to go somewhere that’s he’s the first choice and not the consolation prize.  I think Auburn should put on the full-court press and get him before Florida takes their eye off Kiffin and before Penn St. gets any farther down their list.  Drinkwitz won at Appalachian St and he’s winning at Missouri.  He’s been a great evaluator of talent both with players and coaches and Auburn needs someone to get everything there aligned.  Auburn has a strange history with coaches and I might actually tell Drinkwitz to look elsewhere but Auburn can be a giant and they are going to make it worth his while.  Missouri can compete with the salary but they don’t have the same advantages Auburn has in the SEC since Missouri is an SEC school that’s not actually in SEC country. 

Runner Up: Jon Sumrall (Tulane).  I’m not sure this is really a runner up because I think Sumrall would prefer a different SEC destination, but Auburn can think he would choose them. 

Disaster candidate: Ed Orgeron (unemployed interim coach specialist).  If Drinkwitz goes to Florida, and Sumrall goes to (SPOILER ALERT) Kentucky, maybe baggage at Auburn hurts them with some of the up-and-comers and they end up with Orgeron (this is never happening, Auburn donors are far too involved to let this occur).

Sneaky Good Idea: Glenn Schumann (Georgia defensive coordinator).  Not sure how sneaky it is, his name has come up for openings but he’s a coordinator so I’m not sure they would even consider it.  The last Georgia defensive coordinator to take a head job was Dan Lanning so there’s that.  Auburn could do worse, actually, they usually do.    

Florida St.

The Seminoles are basically letting Mike Norvell finish out the season but he’s a dead man walking right now and it’s understandable.  The last two seasons have been a disaster.  They are going to have to pay a major buyout for Norvell so they won’t likely be shopping for a coach in the same tax bracket as these other schools.  Florida St. doesn’t have the deep pockets of a Big Ten or SEC school but they are a major brand and they hope to be in one of those conferences one day.  They need a good coach that isn’t extra expensive and can turn this program back around. 

The Pick: Clark Lea (Vanderbilt)

This is a tough one because Lea has built Vanderbilt into a real football program and he’s an alumnus.  It’s going to take a special job to get him to move but Florida St. is a very prominent program.  Vanderbilt is in the SEC and Florida St. is not but Vanderbilt isn’t in the business of investing in football the way Florida St. is long-term.  It would suck for him to leave but this is the time to go.  Lea wasn’t exactly lighting it up at Vanderbilt until Diego Pavia transferred in and now Pavia will be done.  It’s the right time to go and he can say he’s leaving Vanderbilt in a better place than where he found it. 

Runner up: Alex Golesh (South Florida).  A very good alternative if they can’t get Lea.

Disaster candidate: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).  This is not a slight on Silverfield, he’s proven to be a good head coach.  He’s a disaster as a Florida St. candidate only because Mike Norvell was hired from Memphis and Silverfield replaced him there.  No way Florida St. can sell the idea of hiring the next guy from Memphis.  It’s a dumb reason but it does matter to them.  

Sneaky Good Idea: Jeff Brohm (Louisville).  I’ve heard Brohm’s name come up and getting him to leave his alma mater Louisville will be even harder than getting Lea to do so.  However, Brohm is an excellent coach and if Florida St. pulled this off, hats off, that would be incredible. 

Virginia Tech

Virgina Tech needs a reset after striking out with Brent Pry.  They may make a play for Shane Beamer at South Carolina but following in the legendary footsteps of his father seems like a bad idea.  Beamer may want to find a soft-landing spot after his tough year at South Carolina but he would be better off not going back to Va Tech. 

The Pick: James Franklin (former Penn St.)

This one feels like it has been in motion since the minute he was fired.  Franklin is still a young coach and has the energy it will take to fix Virginia Tech and he’s got something to prove.  It would be a solid hire for the school, don’t overthink it. 

Runner up: Billy Napier (former Florida).  I haven’t heard his name for any openings but he’s a good coach and they could do worse. 

Disaster candidate: Brian Kelly (former LSU). He qualifies as a disaster at anywhere that has actual expectations and where he has to talk to people.

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison). Again, a job in this region would be a good fit and he’s a good coach.

Kentucky

This job isn’t open yet but it looks like Mark Stoops could be gone any day now.  It’s a massive buyout but this program is slipping and they can’t afford to let it slip any farther.  Also, they have the opportunity to bring home a homegrown future coaching star and if they don’t act now, he’s getting a different job. 

The Pick: Jon Sumrall (Tulane). 

Sumrall is at the top of any list of coaches coming from the G6 teams.  He was a LB at Kentucky and was an assistant there before he became the head coach at Troy.  He parlayed Troy into Tulane and he’s been excellent there.  If the Wildcats don’t hire him now, someone else in the SEC or Big Ten will and then it will be very hard to get him.  He might be Auburn’s top choice, if Kiffin leaves Ole Miss, Sumrall’s on that list too.

Runner up: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis) or Alex Golesh (South Florida).  I’m not sure Kentucky will be able to spend on a sitting head coach from a Power 4 school so if Sumrall turns them down, they look to the other top G6 guys. 

Disaster candidate: Anyone not name Jon Sumrall.  If they pay Mark Stoops’ ridiculous buyout, they better be sure Sumrall is taking the job.  The owe Stoops something like $38 million and it’s all due within 30 days of his firing, that’s insane.  Kudos to Stoops’ agent.  Sumrall would be a homerun hire for them, anyone else is a disappointment. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Don’t put a one lump sum payment buyout on a coach’s contract like this ever again. Especially for a guy who showed you his ceiling was winning nine games every few years.  Stoops deserves credit for rebuilding Kentucky football but he was well compensated the entire time and now his reward for tanking the program is winning the lottery.  That’s bad business.

Arkansas

It was time to move on from Sam Pittman and Bobby Petrino is not the answer.  Don’t be stupid and go looking for someone outside your comfort zone like you did when you hired Bret Bielema.  Stick to someone you know. 

The Pick: Rhett Lashlee (SMU)

Lashlee is an Arkansas native who built a good SMU team and took them to the college football playoff last year.  He’s an excellent coach and there’s no better fit.  I say it all the time, don’t over think it.  SMU has deep pockets to compete with any offer but let’s not pretend Arkansas can’t beat it. 

Runner up: Eric Morris (North Texas). He’s a Texas guy who could recruit to Arkansas pretty well and he’s a QB savant. 

Disaster hire: Billy Napier (former Florida).  I don’t think Arkansas fans would take too well to Florida’s reject. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Collin Klein (Texas A&M offensive coordinator).  Klein is a young coach who has been an offensive coordinator at Kansas St. and Texas A&M and they would be getting a guy on his way up.  It might be a big jump but he might be worth the risk. 

Oklahoma St.

Mike Gundy was there for a very long time as both a coach and a player.  He defined Oklahoma St. football for a generation, now they need to move on.  A new, young offensive minded coach would look good in Stillwater. 

The Pick: Eric Morris (North Texas)

Morris is only 40 and he hasn’t been coaching that long in college but he’s been a head coach at Incarnate Word and at North Texas, he was also an offensive coordinator at Washington St. when they were still in a major conference.  Oklahoma St. isn’t the most attractive job out there but it has its advantages.  If you get a guy like Morris who can recruit in Texas and find you a QB, that’s a great place to start.

Runner up: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC).  Same reasons as the Arkansas job although it’s not as big of a leap. 

Disaster candidate: Ben Arbuckle (Oklahoma OC). Arbuckle is 29 and not ready.  He’s had success with John Mateer at Washington St. and some at Oklahoma but he shouldn’t be getting this big of a job. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Just hire Morris, this isn’t hard.   

UCLA

The Bruins are flailing along and trying to find a direction.  Tim Skipper is the interim after they fired Deshuan Foster but they need to look for someone with some real head coaching experience to lead the program.  That’s not going to be easy with an athletic department that isn’t likely to commit a ton of resources.  They could go with a current coordinator but I think they should look for the guy looking for a soft landing somewhere new. 

The Pick: Dave Aranda (Baylor)

Aranda has had Baylor up and down over the years and generally just as soon as it looks like they may fire him, he has a solid year.  Maybe it’s time to get off that particular rollercoaster.  Aranda was born and raised in California and UCLA may just be desperate enough to want a guy needing a lifeline.  Aranda cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator so there’s even the possibility he might be willing to keep Jerry Neuheisel as his offensive coordinator.  Aranda is a good coach needing a reset and UCLA needs a coach who’s willing to accept a job that may not be perfect. 

Runner up: D’Anton Lynn (USC defensive coordinator).  Lynn was formerly the defensive coordinator at UCLA and may have been the guy who replaced Chip Kelly if he hadn’t just left for the USC DC job.  He would also potentially keep Neuheisel so he’s not the worst choice. 

Disaster hire: PJ Fleck (Minnesota).  His name routinely gets floated for this job but I don’t think the UCLA administration would find it fun to have Fleck around complaining about not getting enough support from the school.  He’s not exactly the type of guy to suffer in silence. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Tosh Lupoi (Oregon defensive coordinator).  Great recruiter and a guy looking for a chance to be a head coach.  He too could keep Neuheisel.  It’s not a dealbreaker that a new coach has to keep him but Neuheisel seems to be beloved in that locker room and loves UCLA.  He’s done a good job taking over and making the offense fun again since the purge of Deshaun Foster and other coaches.  Don’t kill the vibe. 

Stanford

Frank Reich is the interim coach that Andrew Luck hired to hold down the fort after they let Troy Taylor go over the summer for non-football related reasons.  I don’t have a good feel for this job because the only name mentioned I’ve seen is Tavita Pritchard who is the Ravens QB coach.  He’s a former Stanford QB and coached there too.  He’s really young and doesn’t have a ton of experience.  Luck is in charge of hiring the next coach and he would be wise to look at UCLA’s hiring of Deshaun Foster and steer clear of hiring a guy just because of his ties to the school.  There are a couple of good coaches not linked to Stanford that Luck should look into. 

The Pick: Sean Lewis (San Diego St.)

Lewis is an offensive mastermind and was an excellent coach at Kent St. and if you know anything about Kent St. football you know how impressive that was.  He made the mistake of leaving there to be Deion Sanders’ OC at Colorado.  That didn’t go well but he was smart enough to get out before it hurt his stock.  He got the San Diego St. job and has done well.  He runs a unique offense and Stanford probably needs to do something a little different to compete.  It a tough situation with their academic standards and the weird placement in the ACC but Stanford can be a good team. 

Runner up: Ken Niumatalolo (San Jose St.). Niumatalolo was once the head coach at Navy and ran the triple option there but now at San Jose St. he runs a wide-open spread offense.  Talk about a guy who could give Stanford something unique.  He’s an excellent coach but he is 60 years old and may not want the headache of a rebuild at a tough place like Stanford.

Disaster hire: Tavita Pritchard (Baltimore Ravens QB coach).  I’m not knocking Pritchard as a coach, by all accounts he’s doing a good job.  However, he’s 36, never been a head coach, and this is a heavy lift.  The Deshaun Foster/UCLA thing would scare me away from this.  Maybe if you hire Lewis, he succeeds and moves on in a few years and then Pritchard comes back after being at least a coordinator in the NFL or college.  Give it a little time.

Sneaky Good Idea: Jonathan Smith (Michigan St.) Smith was a rising star at Oregon St. and now in his second year at Michigan St. he might get fired.  He’s a west coast guy and maybe getting back that way would be good for him.  I don’t think it’s a good idea for Michigan St. to give up on him this early but he may be like Dave Aranda and looking for a soft-landing spot. 

Maryland

This is another job that isn’t open and depending on how they finish, it may not.  Mike Locksley has been a big-time recruiter in his career as an assistant but as a head coach, he’s been hit and miss.  His coaching hasn’t been great at Maryland.  There are a lot of great players in the area and he hasn’t taken advantage.  He has a very good freshman QB this year but they may only go 5-7, 6-6, or 7-5 at best.  He’s had plenty of time and Maryland has a chance to get a good up-and-coming coach. 

The pick: Charles Huff (Southern Miss)

Huff is a Maryland native and he’s coached at places like Alabama, Penn St. and even the NFL.  He was the head coach at Marshall and took over at Southern Miss this season.  He’s won at both places and he would be a great get for Maryland.

Runner up: I don’t think there’s a great second choice.  Huff should be the guy if they move on.

Disaster hire: Brian Kelly (former LSU).  I’m just taking another shot at Kelly. 

Sneaky Good Idea: Bob Chesney (James Madison). Seriously, do I have to say it again? He’s a good coach.

The Domino Jobs (their coach left for a better opportunity)

Ole Miss

Lost: Lane Kiffin

Hire: Pete Golding (Ole Miss defensive coordinator). 

Golding has been a good coach at Ole Miss and was a good DC at Alabama before that.  He would likely have to wrestle with Kiffin to keep some of the staff but he’s their best shot at keeping the Kiffin thing going. 

Other options: Alex Golesh (South Florida), Jon Sumrall (Tulane)

Missouri

Lost: Eli Drinkwitz

Hire: Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).

Silverfield might be the runner up for a number of jobs because he’s good but maybe not ready for the upper level of the Big Ten or SEC.  Missouri is a good next step for him.  Better program, better conference, and working towards the bigger jobs.

Other options: Alex Golesh (South Florida), Colin Klein (Texas A&M OC)

Iowa St.

Lost: Matt Campbell

Hire: Jason Eck (New Mexico).

He has done a great job everywhere he’s been and he does have ties to AD Jamie Pollard.  Eck was an offensive lineman and started his coaching career at Wisconsin when Pollard was there.

Other options: Nathan Scheelhaase (LA Rams Assistant Coach), Tim Polasek (North Dakota St.)

SMU

Lost: Rhett Lashlee

Hire: Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator). 

Stein spent a lot of time coaching in the state of Texas and he would be a great candidate to step in and keep the offense humming at SMU.  He’s a future coaching star. 

Other options: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC), Jason Eck (New Mexico)

Washington

Lost: Jedd Fisch

Hire: Ryan Grubb (Alabama OC). 

Grubb was Kalen DeBoer’s right hand man during Washington’s run to the National Championship Game a couple of years ago.  He’s a great offensive mind for college (his year with the Seahawks went poorly, not all his fault).  And he clearly liked the area so maybe he will stay longer than DeBoer or Fisch did.

Other options: Will Stein (Oregon OC), Tosh Lupoi (Oregon DC)

Tulane

Lost: Jon Sumrall

Hire: Collin Klein (Texas A&M OC)

Klein is a young coach at 36 and while there’s a very good chance, he may end up the head coach at Kansas St. someday, Chris Klieman is only 58 and Klein should get some experience as a head coach.  If Sumrall moves up to a bigger job, that’s the last two Tulane head coaches who moved up (Willie Fritz became the Houston head coach).  This is a good job to have.

Other options: Charles Huff (Southern Miss), Billy Napier (former Florida)

Memphis

Lost: Ryan Silverfield

Hire: Tim Cramsey (Memphis OC)

The last time Memphis lost their head coach they replaced Mike Norvell with Silverfield.  Here they do it again by promoting Cramsey who is their offensive coordinator.  It’s not the sexiest hire but he’s a solid coach. 

Other options: Brian Brohm (Memphis OC), Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), Brian Hartline (Ohio St. OC) 

Vanderbilt

Lost: Clark Lea

Hire: Bob Chesney (James Madison)

I mentioned Chesney for a couple of jobs but I haven’t given him one yet.  He would be an excellent choice for Vanderbilt.  He isn’t working with the biggest budget at JMU and Vanderbilt would be similar.  Chesney can do less with more.  He should be getting one of these jobs.

Other options: Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), Mike Denbrock (Notre Dame OC)

Baylor

Lost: Dave Aranda

Hire: Alex Golesh (South Florida)

Golesh should also be getting a promotion and heading to Baylor and bringing his offensive acumen to a place like Baylor seems fitting. 

Other options: Eric Morris (North Texas), Will Stein (Oregon OC)

The 3 Other Jobs (Someone will take them)

Oregon St

They fired Trent Bray after less than a season and a half after promoting him when Jonathan Smith left for Michigan St.  He was a young defensive coordinator and they didn’t give him much time.  Oregon St. is still in the PAC-2 until they get the PAC-whatever back up and running.  It’s not a great job but someone will take it. 

The Pick: Paul Chryst

Chryst wasn’t lighting up the world at Wisconsin but he didn’t deserve to get fired either and they are paying for that mistake now.  He wants to get back into coaching but he isn’t going to be a hot commodity.  He would be an excellent pick to resurrect Oregon St. and get them on track as the new conference gets going. 

UAB

They fired Trent Dilfer and for good reason.  He was a disaster and anyone is an upgrade.  This program deserves a good coach.

The Pick: Billy Napier (former Florida). 

Napier is a good coach.  He was in over his head at Florida but he was an excellent coach at Louisiana.  UAB would be a good landing spot for him. 

Colorado St.

Jay Norvell did okay at CSU but never quite as well as he did at Nevada.  CSU is at best a stepping stone for a good young coach and at worst it’s a last stop for a guy on his way out.  Maybe this is the Brian Kelly stop.  I highly doubt he would swallow his pride enough to take this job but it would be a good place for him, no one is paying attention to Colorado St. 

The Pick: I don’t have a good choice for this one.  I say go for the up-and-coming coach like a Brian Brohm (Louisville OC), Andy Kotelnicki (Penn St. OC), or Tim Polasek (North Dakota St) but I’m not sure they would take it.  It’s possible this is a Mike Gundy spot.   

The two Big Ten jobs that could open but won’t.

Wisconsin

Luke Fickell needs a miracle because even if he survives this year, Wisconsin’s outlook next year can’t be great.  He’s a dead man walking but Wisconsin’s AD doesn’t want to admit his mistake and they really don’t want to pay his buyout.  They are talking about investing more money in the roster and while that would help, Fickell’s inability to keep a QB healthy has killed his team every year.  Wisconsin hasn’t had the offensive line they are used to or the defense they used to have so it’s an uphill climb.  It is possible things change and the Wisconsin AD gets the boot too and both are gone.  If they need a coach, Jason Eck (New Mexico) is a former Badger and if the AD is gone, they could try to mend fences with Jim Leonhard (Denver Broncos assistant).  Neither would necessarily break the bank so they could get it done. 

Michigan St. 

I thought the Jonathan Smith hire was a good one at the time and I would give him more time to right the ship.  With the portal, it’s possible to turn a roster around quickly if you make the right moves.  Maybe Smith is a bad fit but I think Michigan St. should sit out this coaching cycle, give Smith the resources to figure it out, and if he fails next season, maybe the coaching carousel isn’t so tough. They have turned that job into a revolving door since Mark Dantonio retired and it’s not a good idea to continually turn over the job.  They didn’t have a choice with Mel Tucker; he had to go. They have a choice with Smith and they should hold on to him. 

Well, if you made it this far, kudos to you and thanks for sticking around.  I probably got it all wrong and if Lane Kiffin picks Florida or stays at Ole Miss, the dominos may fall in a completely different way.  That’s the fun of dominos.      

2025 NFL Season Predictions

Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award

Top Contenders: QB Josh Allen, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Joe Burrow, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Derrick Henry, QB Jayden Daniels

Sleepers: QB CJ Stroud, QB Drake Maye, QB Caleb Willams, QB Bo Nix

We all know this is a basically an award for the best QB so that’s who’s on the list, and the two best RBs in football. Allen won it last year and rightfully so, he was awesome. Lamar has won twice and the Ravens will be good again so he’s in the running. Mahomes is the running as long as he’s still standing. Burrow made a late run last season when he was absolutely on fire and if he had led the Bengals to one more win, he might have had it. Allen was far enough ahead to hold him off but it was closer than you think. Barkley and Henry deserve a mention because they’re awesome players and if they have repeat seasons to last year, they are in the conversation. Daniels’ candidacy will hinge on whether or not the Commanders did enough to help him, I’m not sure Deebo is enough to get him over the hump. They did improve his protection so that will help. The sleepers are three rookie QBs who played the most last year besides Daniels. Any of them could level up and breakthrough. Each would need to get their team to the playoff to be in the conversation. Stroud had the sophomore slump Daniels is looking to avoid, if he bounces back, he’s worth noting.

My Pick: Josh Allen
It feels like it’s his time right now. The Bills haven’t conquered the Chiefs mountain yet but it’s not because of Allen. He doesn’t have the best supporting cast in football but he levels his guys up. If he turns Keon Coleman into a legit WR1, Khalil Shakir becomes a great number two, and then maybe he finally gets guys like TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Josh Palmer to level up, it’s his back-to-back MVP season.

Offensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: RB Saquon Barkley, RB Derrick Henry, RB Jamyr Gibbs, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR CeeDee Lamb, RB Bijan Robinson

Sleepers: TE Brock Bowers, WR Puka Nacua, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB De’Von Achane

Barkley won this award last season and he certainly earned it. He had over 2000 yards rushing and was a nearly unstoppable force for the Super Bowl Champions. It was impressive and his win was even more impressive when you consider how great Derrick Henry was as a RB, Bijan Robinson was overall, and that Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving triple crown. Chase is only the fifth receiver to ever lead the league in receptions, yards, and receiving TDs and he still didn’t touch Barkley. Gibbs had a great year for Detroit too, he had to shoulder more of the load when David Montgomery was banged up and he showed he’s up to the task. Jefferson and Lamb are the only two WRs who can reasonably be in the conversation of the best WR in the league with Chase. Those three are simply a level above everyone else. As for my sleepers, Bowers was amazing as a rookie. The numbers he had were insane and that was with some of the worst QB play in the league. Now he has Geno Smith who even on his worst day is a competent NFL starting QB. Puka Nacua has been excellent in LA and with Cooper Kupp gone and Devante Adams his new partner in crime, his stats might go up. Amon-Ra St. Brown should not be underestimated and Achane is a game breaker and the only way the Dolphins are awesome is if he is.

My Pick: WR Ja’Marr Chase
Last season he had over 1700 yards and 17 TDs and that was with a very slow start to Joe Burrow’s year. If Burrow can get going early and the Bengals don’t have their usually September slow start, Chase could get 2000 yards receiving. He’s the best WR in football and has one of the four elite QBs in the game.

Defensive Player of the Year

Top contenders: OLB TJ Watt, DE Myles Garrett, DE Micah Parsons, DE Nick Bosa, CB Patrick Surtain II, CB Derrick Stingley Jr., DE Maxx Crosby, S Kyle Hamilton

Sleepers: DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Jalen Carter, DE Will Anderson Jr., DB Cooper DeJean

Patrick Surtain II took his rightful place at the top of the CB position last season and won the Defensive Player of the Year. He’s been the best in the league for a couple of years but it took a few years for him to get the recognition. TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa are all pass rushers who have won this award in the recent past and are still good enough to do it. They have set the bar pretty high for themselves since they already have won it but it’s possible to repeat. Micah Parsons went from us not knowing what would happen to him with his contract situation and playing on not so great defense, to maybe being the favorite for the award. Derrick Stingley Jr. might be the only guy truly giving Surtain a run for his money as the top CB in the league right now. There are plenty of really good CBs but Surtain and Stingley Jr. are a cut above. DE Maxx Crosby is in the same pass rushing tier as the guys above but the Raiders have to be better for him to get the league-wide recognition. Maybe with Pete Carroll around, they will be. Kyle Hamilton is the chess piece that makes the Ravens defense amazing.

As far as sleepers, Trey Hendrickson is as good of a pass rusher as these other guys but the Bengals defense has been hot garbage and he either needs them to skyrocket up the league standings or he needs to get traded. Christian Gonzalez is a guy I can see taking the next step to level up to the Surtain/Stingley level of cover corner. He would have to be unbelievable to win this award but this is the year he starts building towards eventually winning it. Jalen Carter might be the best DT in football but unless you’re Aaron Donald, this is a tough award for a DT to win. Will Anderson is still a young guy but he’s about to truly breakout on a dominant defense in Houston, he’s eventually going to win this award. I’m throwing DeJean in because he’s going to make plays all over the field for one of the best defenses in football. His DC Vic Fangio is trying to play him wherever he can, just to get him on the field. He won’t win the award this year, but he has one in him.

My Pick: Micah Parsons
Originally, I picked Derek Stingley Jr. for his breakout year and winning this award, then Parsons got traded to Green Bay and it’s over. He’s going to a team with an ascending defense, playing under a really good coordinator, and he’s going to be motivated to prove he’s the best. Parsons has every reason to show everyone how great he is and to rub it in Jerry Jones’ face. Parsons can lead the league in sacks and help Green Bay get over the hump. That’s the kind of difference that wins you this award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: QB Cam Ward, RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Travis Hunter, WR Tetairoa McMillan, RB Omarion Hampton, RB TreVeyon Henderson, RB Kaleb Johnson

Sleepers: WR Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden III, WR Tory Horton

I feel like this is a RBs award to lose. Jeanty has to be the favorite as the top RB prospect and going to a team that is going to use him a ton. However, there are three others who are going to get used a ton. Omarion Hampton will get the Lion’s share of the carries in LA with Najee Harris not being fully healthy. Henderson is already outplaying Rhamondre Stevenson in New England the Patriots need as much playmaking on offense as they can get. Kaleb Johnson is going to get the early down work in Pittsburgh and if the offensive line is just solid, he’s going to break some big runs. Cam Ward is pushing the boulder up hill in Tennessee but he’s a QB and if he plays well, people will notice. Travis Hunter is a big name and can make plays but he’s the second WR to Brian Thomas Jr. and he’s still finding his way. I love McMillan but Bryce Young still has to prove to me he’s a legitimate starting QB who can use a real WR1.

I picked three WRs as sleepers because they should all contribute and have breakout potential. Higgins is the WR2 to Nico Collins but he has CJ Stroud so that helps. Burden is buried deeper on the depth chart in Chicago but something feels right between him and Ben Johnson. I love Horton as a dark horse. Sam Darnold is going to need a deep threat in Seattle decided it’s going to be Horton when they cut Marquez Zaldes-Scantling.

My Pick: RB Omarion Hampton
I’m picking Hampton over Jeanty and Kaleb Johnson even though my gut really wants to go with Johnson. Hampton is going to get the most carries for an offense that’s going to run the ball a ton. He’s a truly talented back and Jim Harbaugh is going to ride him all season long. Jeanty will get a ton of carries too but Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly will use others and I also think the Raiders offense won’t be quite as good. Johnson is going to be a stud in Pittsburgh but they still love Jaylen Warren and Johnson is going to face tougher boxes with Aaron Rodgers not scaring anyone.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Abdul Carter, DE Jalon Walker, DE Shamar Stewart, LB Jihaad Campbell, CB Travis Hunter, CB Will Johnson, DT Mason Graham

Sleepers: S Malaki Starks, OLB Mike Green, DB Jahdae Barron

The DROY usually goes to either the best pass rusher or the top cover corner, so it generally mirrors the defensive player of the year award. Carter is in prime position on a loaded Giants front to be highly productive. Jalon Walker has been exclusively practicing as a pass rusher for the Falcons. Shemar Stewart got a late start with his contract dispute but he has plenty of talent and he’s going to get every opportunity to be a difference maker for the Bengals. Jihaad Campbell is a LB but in Vic Fangio’s defense he’s going to do many different things. Travis Hunter would be high on the list if he was going to play CB more but most of his time is going to be spent on offense. Will Johnson is a dark horse; he was a second-round pick but he’s a first-round talent. Mason Graham probably won’t make enough splash plays as a DT to get noticed enough to win the award. Malaki Starks might make enough plays at safety in the Ravens defense to get noticed. Same goes for Mike Green as a pass rusher for the Ravens. Jahdae Barron will play in Denver but might get overshadowed too much on his own defense to stand out.

My Pick: DE Abdul Carter
I’m going with the most likely pick here. Carter is set up to succeed in New York, he’s in a big market where every one of his big plays will be played up. My next favorite is Will Johnson, the Cardinals stole a good one in round two.

AFC Playoff Teams
Kansas City
Buffalo
Baltimore
Houston
Wild Card Teams
Denver
LA Chargers
New England (yep, I said it)

NFC Playoff Teams
Philadelphia
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
LA Rams
Wild Card Teams
Detroit
Minnesota
San Francisco

AFC Championship Game
Kansas City vs. Buffalo

NFC Championship Game
Detroit vs. Green Bay

Super Bowl Matchup
Green Bay vs. Buffalo

Super Bowl Winner
Buffalo Bills

Playoff Explanation

Yes, I picked the Patriots to make the playoffs as the last team in on the AFC side. The six top teams in the AFC feel pretty solid but the seventh seed doesn’t seem clear to me. KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston as the division winners is pretty easy. I like Denver after the season they had and it’s hard to go against the Chargers after the season Harbaugh had with them in year one. It came down to two teams for me, the Patriots or the Bengals. I don’t like Miami this season, there’s just bad vibes there and I can’t get behind the Aaron Rodgers Steelers. I love the Bengals offense but that defense might be atrocious. If they get off to a slow start like they usually do, they may dig a hole too deep to dig out of. I like the Patriots to be like Washington last year in the NFC. Some good veteran leadership, a good head coach, and an electric QB to carry them on his back. It also helps that the Patriots have one of the easier schedules in the league.

I made one change from my division previews. I had Detroit winning the NFC North over the Packers but that was before the Packers got Micah Parsons. I thought it was going to be a tight race between them and I think Parsons pushes the Packers ahead. Picking the wildcard teams is tougher in the NFC because there are a lot of teams to like. Detroit is still too talented to write off and I think JJ McCarthy can do enough with that roster in Minnesota to get them to the playoffs. The last spot isn’t easy, there are plenty of options. The Seahawks could be good if Klint Kubiak fixes their o-line issues. Atlanta could be plucky if the defense is even decent. San Francisco was a last second pick for me for the last spot because while the injury issues are still present for them, they simply can’t have as bad of luck as they had last season. Brandon Aiyuk should be back at some point and now they have Brian Robinson to take some of the load off Christian McCaffrey. The defense has better players and Robert Saleh back calling it.

In the end, it’s hard to bet against KC and Buffalo in the AFC, Mahomes vs. Allen is the prize fight we all deserve. I feel like it’s time for Buffalo to get over the hump and this feels like Josh Allen’s year. I actually had Green Bay and Detroit in my NFC Championship game before the Parsons trade but I did switch to Green Bay as my NFC Super Bowl pick instead of Detroit. I am worried about Detroit’s interior offensive line but if Aidan Hutchinson stays healthy I think their defense will be really good. Parsons pushes the Packers over the Lions for me. They did not have a difference maker on defense, now they have one of the top five defensive playmakers in the league, added to a defense that as pretty good last season.

Thoughts and Predictions

Last year the rookie class was mostly about the QBs. This year the rookie class is going to be about the rookie RBs. Ashton Jeanty (Raiders), Omarion Hampton (Chargers), Kaleb Johnson (Steelers), TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots), RJ Harvey (Broncos), and Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) will all play huge roles with their teams. While they won’t all start to begin the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are all the starters by the midpoint of the year. Also, Jaydon Blue (Cowboys), Ollie Gordon (Dolphins), Kyle Monangai (Bears) and Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) are four more guys who can work their way into bigger roles as the season goes on. It feels like a bit of a changing of the guard as some guys age and these young guys take over.
Speaking of aging, I’m worried about the Matthew Stafford back issue. Stafford is 37 years old and missed most of training camp with a back issue. The back of any 37-year-old can be iffy and with a guy who can routinely get hit by 300 lbs. defensive linemen it’s especially an issue. Everything for the Rams hinges on Stafford’s health. I picked them to win the NFC West but if Stafford misses games with this back issue, all bets are off. I’m not riding with the Rams if their QB is Jimmy G.

There were three big contract issues heading towards week one and the Commanders got a new deal done with WR Terry McLaurin and the Bengals gave DE Trey Hendrickson more money to satisfy him this season. The third was Micah Parsons and I can’t believe Jerry Jones traded him. It makes no sense to trade him and even less sense to do it now. He’s under contract for the year; he wasn’t going to miss games with his “back” issues. Play out the season, franchise tag him in the off season and trade him next year before the draft. It’s not a surprise Jerry Jones let his ego get the best of him, he once fired Jimmy Johnson because he couldn’t stand people giving Johnson credit for the team winning. The two first round picks and a player trade was always going to be there. You either trade him this last spring when you can get a draft pick to help you this year, or you wait until next off season. Dumbest trade in Dallas since the Mavericks traded Luka Doncic…been a tough year in Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman is a trading machine, he’s pulled off a number of trades in the last couple of weeks. They’re small moves but they improve the roster along the fringes and that’s where games can be won and lost. I’m not sure why more GMs don’t do what Roseman does. Roseman picked up guys like OT Fred Johnson, CB Jakorian Bennett, WR John Metchie III, and backup QB Sam Howell. Some of these guys may not make a difference but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them come in handy at sometime this season.

Speaking of trades, the Patriots seem to be holding onto some veterans they have to be looking to trade. Their initial 53-man roster had eight WRs, along with LB Anfernee Jennings and S Kyle Dugger. Jennings and Dugger don’t seem to fit the new defense but they will fit someone’s defense. I hope they are just holding onto them to get some value and not because they are paying them real money. At WR, Kendrick Bourne was non-existent during the preseason, they ended up cutting him when they couldn’t get a deal done with Minnesota (Vikings preferred Adam Thielen instead), but there are WR needy teams (Steelers, Commanders, 49ers), they should have taken anything for Bourne.

The other team that did well with trades was the 49ers. They picked up RB Brian Robinson Jr. and he’s going to be a great combo with Christian McCaffrey. They also took a flyer on WR Skyy Moore who was a bust in Kansas City. That’s a low cost move and Moore is a talented player who may just need a change of scenery.

Going into training camp it felt like Cam Ward was the one rookie QB worth paying attention to with Saints QB Tyler Shough another possibility. Ward showed he could be a problem in Tennessee, maybe sooner rather than later. Shough lost the starting job to Spencer Rattler, that’s not a good sign. Giant’s rookie QB Jaxson Dart looked awesome when he played and Russell Wilson is on notice. The Giants don’t have an easy slate to start the year and if Russell struggles, Dart’s getting that job pretty quickly.

There are two expensive veteran QBs who need to have good seasons or their teams may look to move on from them. There are enough teams who need starting QBs next year that they could look into trading for these guys. Trevor Lawrence is out of excuses in Jacksonville, it’s put up or get out time. Kyler Murray is in year seven and if it doesn’t get better on offense in Arizona and they stagnate, he could be gone. Maybe they get traded for each other.

The other QBs to keep an eye on for potential moves maybe even as early as the trade deadline this year are Kirk Cousins and Tanner McKee. Cousins is still in Atlanta and they will wait to see if Michael Penix Jr. is the answer there. McKee is the backup in Philadelphia and he’s got some buzz about how good he is. Howie Roseman picked up Sam Howell as his third QB because he knows McKee has value and he will either trade him before the deadline this year or look to move him this off season.

It’s always interesting to look at who the first coach fired will be. Brian Daboll (Giants), Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) and Shane Steichen (Colts) feel like the early leaders. Steichen is counting on Daniel Jones at QB so that’s not great but the Colts schedule isn’t that hard to start off the year, he should survive a while. The Dolphins schedule isn’t that hard but three of the first five games are against their division, if they start 1-4, it’s gets dicey. Daboll could easily start the year 0-4, they start at Washington, at Dallas, home against Kansas City, home against the Chargers, that’s rough. However, week 5 is against the Saints and Daboll has the Jaxson Dart card to play.

The guy who could very easily be gone by week five or shortly there after is Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. It’s completely unfair because of the QB hand he’s been dealt but the reality is this team is facing a daunting schedule to start the year. They go Cincinnati, at Baltimore, Green Bay, at Detroit, then Minnesota the first five weeks and going from Joe Flacco to Dillon Gabriel or Shadeur Sanders isn’t going to give anyone a lot of hope. The next three after that are at Pittsburgh, Miami, and at New England, not exactly any gimmes in that. For Stefanski’s sake, I hope he gets fired so he can go coach somewhere that isn’t a trainwreck, he’s a good coach who deserves better. I think things go very poorly in Cleveland and the ownership group has to make a change, Stefanski gets canned, GM Andrew Berry won’t be far behind. Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz is the most likely interim head coach.

2025 AFC South Preview

Houston Texans

DeMeco Ryans was unhappy with the offense last season so he fired OC Bobby Slowik along with their offensive line coach and hired Nick Caley, who is coming from the Rams.  Caley spent the last few seasons under Seah McVay and before that spent a number of years in New England so he has a varied offensive background.  The defense was excellent last season and Ryans is looking to build on that on that side of the ball. 

QB CJ Stroud had a sophomore slump compared to his rookie season but then again, his rookie season was great so it’s all relative.  The offense was pedestrian at best with unimaginative play calling, an offensive line that was awful, and a WR group that was thinned out by injury.  WR Nico Collins is one of the best in the league but by the end of last season he was a one-man show.  Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both got injured and the team decided to be sure they aren’t short-handed this year.  Diggs is gone and Dell’s injury was late in the year and devastating so no one’s sure when he’ll be back and they probably aren’t counting on it this year.  The Texans traded for Christian Kirk to start in the slot.  They drafted Jayden Higgins and he’ll start at the X.  Collins, Higgins, and Kirk are a good trio for Stroud.  They didn’t stop there, they drafted Jaylin Noel, he backs up Kirk. They signed Justin Watson from Kansas City; he’ll back up Higgins.  And they still have Xavier Hutchinson and Braxton Barrios too.  TE Dalton Schultz is a solid player and is backed by Cade Stover.

The offensive line was abysmal last year so they turned it over completely this off season.  Initially the plan was replacing Laremy Tunsil at LT with Cam Robinson but rookie second rounder Aireontae Ersery beat out Robinson.  That’s good news since Robinson is a replacement level player only.  Tytus Howard was supposed to be one of the guards but he’s taken the RT spot from Blake Fisher.  Fisher was pretty awful last year so it’s not surprising.  At guard, they have Laken Tomlinson on the left side and Ed Ingram on the right.  Those two were terrible in Seattle and Minnesota respectively last year so they have to be hoping they will be better in Caley’s offense, that’s a major bet they’re making.  At center they had both Jarrett Patterson and Juice Scruggs, guys who have started before, but it’s former Patriots’ castoff Jake Andrews who won the job out of camp.  Andrews is a talented player who was just never healthy in New England.  He might be an upgrade if he can stay healthy. 

RB Joe Mixon carried the load last year but he’s already hurt and it’s not apparent when he’ll be ready to play.  Nick Chubb is his backup but reports from camp are he looks slow coming off his injuries.  Dameon Peirce has been underwhelming which leaves rookie Woody Marks looking to carry the load, that’s not ideal. Someone is going to have to be the RB here, it’s just not clear who’s going to take the job.   

The Texans’ defense has been good under DeMeco Ryans and last year they were very good.  The front is led by DE Danielle Hunter and DE Will Anderson Jr.  They are a dynamic pair off the edge but they need a little more help inside.  A healthy return for guys like Folorunso Fatukasi and Denico Autry would help.  They re-signed Sheldon Rankins who was good for them two years ago but was awful in Cincinnati last season.  They hope Darrell Taylor gives them some edge depth with Derek Barnett too. 

The LBs are solid but not spectacular.  MLB Azeez Al-Shaair is well-versed in Ryans’ defense and Christian Harris and Henry To’o To’o are solid players flanking him.  CB Derrick Stingley Jr. is one of the two or three best corners in the NFL and they rely on him to take his guy out of the offense.  CB Kamari Lassiter was a steal in last year’s draft and held up quite well opposite Stingley.  FS Calen Bullock also stepped in as a starter last year and he was quite good.  The team traded for CJ Gardner-Johnson in the off season but he just had a knee injury that is going to affect his availability.  They still have Jalen Pitre and he’s an excellent nickel but he may have to play some more traditional safety if Gardner-Johnson is out very long. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

The front office and coaching staff have undergone complete makeovers and it was all overdue.  GM James Gladstone replaces Trent Baalke and Liam Coen comes in at head coach.  The roster isn’t changing a ton because they have some good players and they believe a better coaching staff will get more out of these guys.  It starts with Coen bringing in a new offense which is long overdue.

QB Trevor Lawrence is signed to a major contract and the team’s success is tied to him whether they like it or not.  Coen was hired to do what Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson couldn’t do, get Lawrence to live up to his considerable talent.  Lawrence is one of the most physically gifted QBs in the league but hasn’t had an offense that takes advantage of him.  Coen got the absolute most out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last season and while Tampa’s WR group is more accomplished than the one the Jaguars have, the Jaguars have some serious talent to work with.

Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie and established himself as an elite WR even in a bad offense.  The team signed Dyami Brown to a decent one-year contract after his solid season in Washington and he gives them another skill set.  Finally, the team traded up in round one to get Travis Hunter and while they do plan on using him some at CB, his primary role for now will be as the WR2 for this team.  They made a late preseason trade for Tim Patrick from Detroit, he’s a solid pickup.  All three of those guys can be legitimate playmakers.  The team let Evan Engram go at TE but Brenton Strange is a good young player who probably fits Coen’s offense a little better. 

The offensive line isn’t teeming with elite players but the team hopes they have upgraded at a few spots and that the whole will be more than the sum of its parts.  Coen had a good offensive line in Tampa and they hope he can work some magic here.  LT Walker Little took over for Cam Robinson last year and while he’s not a Pro Bowler, he’s better than Robinson.  They traded for Ezra Cleveland and then re-signed him so they hope he’s solid at LG.  RT Anton Harrison wasn’t as good last year as his rookie season but he still has talent.  The C and RG spots are new as Coen imported Robert Hainsey to take over in the pivot.  Hainsey lost his job to a rookie in Tampa Bay last season so he’s certainly not elite but he’s better than Luke Fortner.  Patrick Mekari has been a long-time Raven who filled a lot of holes with his versatility.  The Jags want him to stick at RG and replace Brandan Scherff who they let go.  It’s possible the line is better but that’s not a guarantee. 

Travis Etienne has been the starting RB whenever he’s been healthy for the last several years but they always seem to be trying to replace him.  Tank Bigsby is the guy they brought in two years ago and he has yet to prove to be better.  They drafted Bhayshul Tuten this year but I’ll believe they are changing RBs when I see it.  Etienne is always underestimated but seems to hold on to the job. 

The defense is returning almost fully intact from a personnel standpoint which means Coen is placing a lot of trust on new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile turning this unit around.  Campanile is inexperienced as a coordinator so it’s going to be interesting to see what he does.  There is talent to work with so it’s not impossible this defense can be good.  The front features DE Josh Hines-Allen and DE Travon Walker on the outside.  These two can get the pressure of the edge any team would desire so that’s a good start.  They aren’t great in the middle with DaVon Hamilton and an aging Arik Armstead at DT.  That’s assuming Armstead his healthy enough to play.  It would help if one of the backups like Maason Smith or Austin Johnson could contribute. 

At LB, Devin Lloyd is a solid MLB and Foyesade Oluokun is fine on the weakside but hopefully Campanile’s defense puts them in better positions to succeed and uses their strengths.  The strongside LB is Yasir Abdullah who’s a young player without a lot of experience or Dennis Gardeck, a veteran coming off an injury.

The secondary would be helped out if Travis Hunter was going to be a full-time CB but for now, he’s going to be used situationally.  CB Tyson Campbell is a solid CB1 even if he’s not one of the top players at the position.  Jarrian Jones will try to hold up as the other outside CB with Hunter likely to step in when needed.  They signed Jourdan Lewis to be their nickel corner and he’s a good player when healthy but that’s not a guarantee.  At safety, Eric Murray is a veteran they have penciled in at SS with Andrew Wingard at FS.  Not the best duo but if the front is good that will help the back end. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are going into the second year of Brian Callahan’s tenure and they are doing it with a new QB, Cam Ward.  Callahan’s offense wasn’t in the best hands last year with Will Levis which is why they took Ward first overall.  They also decided to help the offensive line out with some changes and the offense should be better.  The defense has Dennard Wilson back at DC and they hope to make strides on that side with a few changes. 

Cam Ward is a dynamic player who should give them a higher ceiling than Levis was giving them.  Callahan’s offense is in better hands with Ward.  The entire QB corps turns over as Levis is out for the year with an injury so it’s Ward, backed up by Brandon Allen.  There is also massive turnover at WR.  Calvin Ridley returns as the top player at the position but the rest of the roster will be new.  Veterans Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett were signed to give the offense more consistency.  Lockett is aging but he can still play.  Jefferson is okay but has never really excelled.  They also drafted a couple of rookies in Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike.  This should be a solid group for Ward.  TE Chig Okonkwo is a solid player in the passing game too. 

RB Tony Pollard was a 1000-yard rusher last year behind a suspect offensive line and on an overall suspect offense.  He’s a good player and it should really help him out to get a better line up front.  The team seriously overspent to get LT Dan Moore in free agency but he was the best LT they could sign and he upgrades two positions for them.  Moore is a better LT than JC Latham was last season as a rookie.  Latham is a natural RT and now he moves back to that position and should be a massive upgrade over the guys they played at the position last season.  The also signed veteran RG Kevin Zeitler and while he’s getting up there in age, he’s still playing at high level.  Zeitler and Latham on the right side could be a devastating combo.  LG Peter Skoronski needs to play well but having a better LT next to him should help.  It would also be very helpful if C Lloyd Cushenberry returns healthy.  He was having a good year before he got hurt and they need his consistency inside. 

The defense returns all three starters up front with Sebastian Joseph-Day, T’Vondre Sweat, and Jeffrey Simmons.  Simmons is one of the better DTs in the league and he’s a force up front.  Sweat had a very good year as a rookie at NT and made the line much stronger.  Joseph-Day is a veteran who can hold his own.  They don’t have great depth so they need these guys healthy.  At OLB they will go with Arden Key and most likely Dre’Mont Jones who they signed from Seattle.  Jones is a strange OLB being 6’3 281 lbs., not your typical speed rusher off the edge.  Key is a decent rotation guy but shouldn’t be a full-time player or really a starter either.  They are certainly hoping rookie Oluwafemi Oladejo out of UCLA can give them something off the edge.  Cody Barton was signed to pair with James Williams Jr. at ILB.  It’s not a great pair but they should be serviceable. 

The secondary needs L’Jarius Snead to return at CB after the money and draft capital they spent last year to get him.  He’s coming off an injury but they need the CB1 they paid for or things get rough quickly.  Jarvis Brownlee Jr. was a great find at the other CB spot in the fifth round of last year’s draft but he needs to be the #2 guy.  Roger McCreary is a good nickel guy and they don’t have depth behind these three.  Amani Hooker is a seasoned veteran at SS and they hope veteran Xavier Woods is a good pickup at FS.  Rookie Kevin Winston Jr. was a solid pickup in round three of this year’s draft to be the third safety. 

Indianapolis Colts

GM Chris Ballard has been around a long time and while head coach Shane Steichen has only been around a few years, both guys are tied to the QBs they have chosen to have here.  Anthony Richardson was supposed to be that guy but they are going with Daniel Jones instead.  Their owner Jim Irsay passed away this off season so now his daughters are in charge and Ballard may not have the job security he’s enjoyed before if this QB choice kills their season. 

Richardson is still just a thought experiment at this point and it’s hasn’t gone well.  We know what Daniel Jones is and while it’s not good, it’s preferable to Richardson at this point.  It’s not great when you’re looking at rookie third stringer Riley Leonard and thinking “hey, why not.”

The passing game is dependent on the QB raising the level of the WRs because while Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, are a solid trio of players, they aren’t world beaters on their own.  These guys need a QB who makes them better.  Maybe second year WR AD Mitchell is a guy with that kind of talent but he’s still raw.  TE Tyler Warren was drafted to give this team a playmaker because the WR group is just a group of good players, not difference makers.  Daniel Jones doesn’t inspire confidence but he has a higher floor, in theory, than Richardson.  Ballard and Steichen could be gone quickly if this goes off the rails early in the year. 

The other issue is the offensive line.  LT Bernhard Raimann has really developed into a good player and they signed him to a contract extension, that’s good news.  LG Quenton Nelson probably isn’t the dominant force he once was but he’s still a good guard.  His draft classmate RT Braden Smith was never as dominant like Nelson but he’s always been steady.  He’s been dealing with some mental health issues so the team has to hope he’s ready to play all year.  The real issue is at center and RG where two second-year guys are looking to take over.  C Tanor Bortolini is being counted on to replace Ryan Kelly while Matt Goncalves is looking to replace Will Fries full-time at RG.  Goncalves played some for Fries last year but now these jobs belong to them.  Kelly was aging and Fries had some injury issues but these two were awesome when they played together.  Bortolini and Goncalves have big shoes to fill.  RB Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in football but he does need some blocking to get going.  That’s especially true if the passing game isn’t threatening anyone. 

The biggest change on defense is the scheme as the team is moving on from Gus Bradley and hired Lou Anarumo from Cincinnati.  Cincinnati’s defense has struggled under Anarumo but that was largely due to them ignoring the defensive personnel, the Colts added some good pieces in the off season.  They are largely unchanged up front as they are hoping for development from Latu Laiatu at DE after a solid rookie year.  Kwity Paye is the other DE and they hope getting Samson Ebukam back as a pass rusher helps.  DT DeForest Buckner isn’t getting any younger but he can still play.  Grover Stewart is even older but he’s still solid.  They could use some young depth to step forward. 

The LB group is underwhelming with MLB Zaire Franklin and assumably Cameron McGrone at the other spot.  Franklin is fine but he’s 29 and undistinguished at this point.  McGrone is going into year five and hasn’t really done anything at all.  Where this team made some moves in the secondary where it was certainly needed.  They signed CB Charvarius Ward after going years without a real CB1, Ward is that guy.  They cut JuJu Brents after another lost season to injury which leaves Jaylon Jones as the other starting outside CB.  Kenny Moore II is back as the slot guy, he’s still really good there.  At safety, they team signed Cam Bynum at FS and he was very good in Minnesota last year.  Nick Cross returns at SS and he’s fine.  The best news is that Lou Anarumo can put together a good defense if he has the guys to run it and this group has the type of solid veterans he prefers because it’s generally a complicated game plan.  The LB group leaves plenty to be desired but if the Colts are bad, I don’t think it will be because the defense is terrible.  It will be because the offense left the defense on the field too much.