The Texans went from one of the worst teams in the league to a Super Bowl contender in a year because CJ Stroud proved to be an amazing QB in year one. This season they got him more help by trading for Stefon Diggs and getting better on defense. The Colts were actually a solid team that almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew at QB, now they will see how far they can go with Anthony Richardson. Trevor Lawrence got a huge contract extension and some new weapons in the passing game but if this team fails like it did last season, Doug Pederson will be out of a job. That leaves the Titans who are transitioning to the Brian Callahan/Will Levis era now that Derrick Henry is gone. It could be a tough transition year.
Houston Texans
Stroud was everything you could want in a franchise QB in his rookie season. Nothing was too big for him and he became the team leader as soon as he stepped onto the field. He unlocked Nico Collins and made him a legitimate WR1 and made Tank Dell a deadly WR2 when he was healthy. The team didn’t like what they got from their WR depth after Dell went out with an injury so they made a splash and traded for the disgruntled Stefon Diggs from Buffalo. Diggs wasn’t great the back half of last season but he’s still a skilled player and he’s in the last year of his contract, he should be motivated. They do have guys behind those three; Robert Woods and John Metchie III, they just aren’t nearly as good as the top three. TE Dalton Schultz is fin and he’s reliable and Stroud likes reliable.
The offensive line was really banged up last season yet they still played pretty well. Call it the Shanahan effect, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree and clearly his offensive line magic rubbed off. LT Laremy Tunsil is one of the best in the league but the rest of the unit is just solid guys who are better as a unit than individually. The team wanted more out of their running game so they traded for Joe Mixon. Mixon has never been a superstar but he’s an upgrade for this team and he gives Stroud a guy to count on.
The defense wasn’t bad but it wasn’t especially good and while the team really only added Diggs and Mixon on offense, they did a little more for the defense. DE Danielle Hunter comes in to really juice the pass rush opposite Will Anderson Jr. Hunter is a top-level pass rusher. They also got Folorunso Fatukasi at DT to give them a big body inside. Once Denico Autry returns from his PED suspension the defensive line should be quite good. They also signed LB Azeez Al-Shaair who once played for DeMeco Ryans in San Francisco and he upgrades their MLB spot.
The secondary is led by CB Derek Stingley who looked like a legitimate #1 CB at times last season. They also have Jimmie Ward and at safety, Ward is getting older but he’s a sold vet and that’s a good thing because they seem to be going with Calen Bullock, a rookie, opposite him. That makes Jalen Pitre, the other starting safety from last year, the nickel back. It was the other CB spot opposite Stingley that was an issue. The signed Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson to try to fill it and Henderson didn’t even make the roster. DeMeco Ryans seems confident Kamari Lassiter, the rookie from Georgia, can handle the other CB spot. His physical profile and athletic ability are not elite but he plays better than he tests. He’s going to have to be good because teams are going to avoid Stingley with an untested rookie opposite him.
Indianapolis Colts
This is a bet on one guy, QB Anthony Richardson. Somehow, this team was in the playoff hunt until the last week of the season with Gardner Minshew playing QB almost all season. Richardson is a serious upgrade from a talent standpoint, now he has to play that way. Shane Steichen has proven to be one of the better offensive minds in the game and now he hopes to have Richardson to unleash on the league all season long. Richardson isn’t alone either. RB Jonathan Taylor is one of the better RBs in the league and with Richardson around he’s job only gets easier as teams have to account for a dynamic player at QB. The offensive line improved leaps and bounds last year with the same personnel as the year before. Proof that scheme and coaching can do wonders for an offense and the performance of an offensive line.
The pass catchers should be interesting. WR Michael Pittman Jr. got paid well this off season and while he’s as steady and reliable as they come, he’s not the dynamic playmaker you think of when you think of the best WRs in the game. That’s why they drafted AD Mitchell after he fell into the second round of the draft. Mitchell is a boom or bust player but he’s big, fast, and dynamic down the field. He should give them the dimension they have been hoping to get from Alec Pierce but have just never gotten. Josh Downs is a wizard in the slot. He can get open in an instant and if they can get Richardson to dump the ball off to him, he’ll make the play. They have some guys at TE but there’s no telling which one of Kyren Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, or Jelani Woods is going to be the guy from week-to-week.
The defense was better than it should have been last year but still needs some work. They just lost Samson Ebukam for the year and that puts a lot more pressure on rookie Laiatu Latu to be ready to contribute right away. They need his pass rush because the leading returner in sacks is Kwity Paye with 8.5, that’s not great. Latu can play right now and he could lead this team in sacks. DT DeForest Buckner is still the best player up front. Guys like EJ Speed and Zaire Franklin are good at LB but they need the guys up front to be good or it will get ugly for them.
Where this team could have used an infusion of talent is in the secondary and they really didn’t get it. JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones are fine at CB but one of them needs to take a step up to be a CB1 and I’m not sure either one can do that. Kenny Moore Jr. returns as a great nickel back but that’s all he is. Nick Cross is fine at one safety spot while Julian Blackmon can be excellent if he isn’t having to constantly cover for others mistakes.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence is the present and future of the Jaguars and now Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke have to try to stick around to see it through. Pederson needs get more out of this offense and I’m not sure Baalke helped him enough. They lost Calvin Ridley in free agency and signed Gabe Davis, that’s a downgrade. Baalke did draft Brian Thomas Jr. who I really like, but he’s a rookie WR. Lawrence still has Christian Kirk, if he can stay healthy, and arguably his favorite target TE Evan Engram. The passing game must be better and more consistent.
RB Travis Etienne is better than he gets credit for but they haven’t gotten him any help as last year’s rookie Tank Bigsby did very little and they didn’t add anyone of note. The offensive line needs to be better. LT Cam Robinson being healthy might help but I’ve never been a big fan. Signing C Mitch Morse should help stabilize the position and help the interior but they need LG Ezra Cleveland to be more consistent and RG Brandon Scherff to actually stay healthy. RT Anton Harrison was the lone bright spot last year as a rookie.
The defense gets a new coordinator in Ryan Nielsen who came over after a year in Atlanta where everyone got fired. He’ll be working with a lot more talent in Jacksonville but that didn’t make the Jaguars defense all that great last year. The defender formerly known as “the other Josh Allen” is now Josh Hines-Allen and he had a great year last year. He got the big contract he wanted and now he needs live up to it. His pass rushing partner is former #1 overall pick Travon Walker who had 10 sacks last season and is starting to play like someone who can really make a difference. The team also traded for DT Arik Armstead when the 49ers needed to shed salary and he’s a great addition inside. The front four should be good.
The LBs must play up to their billing. Foyesade Oluokun was a big free agent signing a couple of years ago and Devin Lloyd was a first-round pick, they have to be that good for this defense to be better. The secondary has a really expensive CB in Tyson Campbell, he’s good but he got paid like he’s great. They signed Ronald Darby opposite Campbell, he’s okay but not good. I like Andre Cisco and they signed Darnell Savage but they will likely play Savage as the nickel back as much or more than they play him as a traditional safety. Nielsen needs to get the best out of this defense or things get tough for this team.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans surprisingly moved on from Mike Vrabel, apparently there was a power struggle between him and GM Ran Carthon and Vrabel lost. The team hired Brian Callahan, the long-time offensive coordinator of the Bengals. They also moved on from Derrick Henry and Will Levis takes over as the starting QB after he finally replaced Ryan Tannehill last season. It’s a season of change for the Titans. Callahan is a bright offensive mind and if anyone can get Levis to play up to his potential it should be Callahan. The team spent money on WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to go with DeAndre Hopkins to give Levis some legitimate pass catchers. Hopkins starts the year injured so that’s not going to help but Ridley and Boyd are still good. TE Chig Okonkwo is fine but Callahan’s offenses in Cincinnati never really featured a TE.
The running game loses Henry and the team signed Tony Pollard to go with second year back Tyjae Spears. Spears was solid behind Henry last season and Pollard is another year removed from his broken leg and should be better in time-share than as the featured back. The offensive line was atrocious last year so Brian Callahan hired his dad Bill Callahan, one of the best o-line coaches in the game to fix it. They drafted OT JC Latham and while he was a RT at Alabama, they will move him to LT. They also signed C Lloyd Cushenberry from Denver to upgrade that spot and he’s an improvement over Aaron Brewer. Bill Callahan should be a breath of fresh air and should make LG Peter Skoronski his best self If they get better line play the offense should be fine.
The defense was pretty good and they should still be that way this season under new defensive coordinator Dennard Walker. Walker comes from Baltimore and will use a slightly different system than Shane Bowen and Vrabel used. DL Jeffrey Simmons is a star up front and the team drafted NT T’Vondre Sweat to give the front some real beef. Sweat is 360+ lbs. on a good day and he’s the immovable object. Harold Landry III and Arden Key are the outside pass rushers, they’re good but there isn’t any depth. Kenneth Murray and Jack Gibbens are a less than ideal pair at ILB which is why the team made their 11th hour trade for Ernest Jones IV from the Rams. Jones is a good young player that the Rams didn’t want to have to pay. He’s a massive upgrade here but he’s still just a good ILB.
The secondary is in flux. The team traded for L’Jarius Sneed to be their top CB and he’s more than up to the task. They signed Chidobe Awuzie to be the second corner, that could be a problem since he’s had health issues. Roger McCreary is a good nickel corner. Amani Hooker is the one returning starter in the secondary at SS while Quandre Diggs was a late addition to be the starter at FS. The second CB spot could be an issue but otherwise there is talent here to have a good secondary.
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