Josh Allen and the Bills have owned this division lately and while a healthy Aaron Rodgers and some changes in Buffalo will make it harder, I’m not betting against the Bills. Tua and the Dolphins won’t be an easy out for anyone until the weather changes and then we will see if their offense can give them enough to still be relevant. The Patriots are starting the rebuild and trading Matt Judon was the latest indication they know they aren’t competing. I don’t think the Patriots will be terrible, the defense will still be too good for them to be awful, but there will be growing pains on offense.
Buffalo Bills
When in doubt, don’t bet against Josh Allen when his biggest competition in the division is Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett. Allen may have lost his long-time top receiver when they traded Stefon Diggs but Joe Brady had phased Diggs out of the offense the last half of last season and this WR group gives Allen more options than just Diggs or Gabe Davis. Brady took over midseason last year when Sean McDermott fired Ken Dorsey to save himself. Brady promptly made James Cook a more prominent piece of the offense and just designed the run game better. He deemphasized Diggs in the passing game and Khalil Shakir became a more useful player. This year Diggs and his poor attitude are gone and they signed former Brady favorite Curtis Samuel, drafted Keon Coleman, and will once again use Shakir instead of sidelining him.
Samuel had his best season playing under Brady when they were in Carolina together. Coleman is one of my favorite rookie WRs, he can big-boy some catches over guys and he’s just a playmaker. Shakir finally started to look like a real player when they got him the ball. TE Dalton Kincaid has loads of potential and could lead this team in catches if he and Allen can find a rhythm. TE Dawson Knox is a good player too. The run game was more effective under Brady and James Cook found running room behind an offensive line that should be pretty good this season even with a couple of changes. This is the most non-descript offensive line in the league but they are generally good. LT Dion Dawkins has become a really excellent player but no one else on the line distinguishes themselves.
Sean McDermott is a smart defensive mind and he’s going to have to show it this season with some significant changes in his secondary and looking like he’ll be missing Matt Milano again at LB. The front four should be fine with DEs Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa two guys who can still get better as they hit their prime years. They need Von Miller to be a good designated pass rusher but they can’t count on him to be anything more. DT Ed Oliver is one of the best in the league even if he often gets left out of the top DT conversation. There are guys with higher profiles but Oliver is a menace. The LB corps takes a hit with Milano having another preseason injury. They let Tyrell Dodson leave in free agency expecting Milano back to pair with Terrell Bernard, Milano tore his biceps and will miss significant time. The second level of the defense could be an issue.
The secondary lost Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde (all of whom were injured at one time or another last season) and their replacements leave a lot to be desired. Unless CB Kaiir Elam tosses off the bust label and becomes the player they thought he was when they drafted him in round one a few years ago, this secondary lacks talent. Everyone seems to be picking on the WR group as the thing holding this team back, I’ll take the secondary with CB Rasul Douglas, CB Christian Benford, S Taylor Rapp and S Damar Hamlin as the starters as a reason to doubt this team. But doubting Sean McDermott’s defense doesn’t feel right.
New York Jets
The Jets are all-in on this season because if they don’t win now Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas are probably looking for new jobs next season. Aaron Rodgers returns off an Achilles injury and he’s 40 (he’ll be 41 in December). They signed multiple injury risk veterans to fill holes, LT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams most notably. Smith joins a reworked offensive line with John Simpson set to play LG next to him, Morgan Moses at RT, and rookie Olu Fashanu ready to step in when Smith misses time. The line should be much improved if this unit stays healthy but Smith and Moses are both 33 and RG Aijah Vera-Tucker has missed significant time with injuries too. If the line fails the offense falls apart.
WR Mike Williams has been quite banged up in his career but if he can stay healthy, he gives them a really good complement to Garrett Wilson. Wilson can be a breakout star with Rodgers throwing him the ball. He has all the talent in the world but has been saddled with awful QB play in his NFL career. Even a 40-year-old Rodgers coming off an Achilles tear is a massive step up. RB Breece Hall will be the engine of this group. He’s a superior talent and was great last season when the offensive line was terrible and the defenses weren’t scared of the passing game at all. Hall should be even better this season.
The defense was very good last year even with an offense that was doing them no favors. There are some changes that could affect it and they are mostly up front. They let Bryce Huff leave in free agency and traded for Hassan Reddick to fill his spot. The problem is Reddick wants a new contract and is holding out and asking for a trade. If they don’t have him, it’s up to Jermaine Johnson, who I like, and Will McDonald IV, not so much, to bring the pass rush. McDonald isn’t a full-time player and there isn’t much depth on the edge even with Reddick. DT Quinnen Williams is a star but they are pinning a lot of hope on Javon Kinlaw being better than he’s even been next to Williams inside.
LBs CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams are legitimately one of the best pairs in the NFL. At CB, Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, and Michael Carter II, are an excellent trio. Gardner is a top three CB in the NFL and Reed is underrated. The safety spot should be fine but not elite. Chuck Clark and Tony Adams aren’t keeping offensive coordinators up at night.
Miami Dolphins
Mike McDaniel has put together an elite offensive unit and the team committed to Tua as their starter for the foreseeable future so they are going with it. The one problem is this offense is built on speed and when things slow down, they get a little out of sync. McDaniel is a mad genius so he can try to tweak things but they need to strike while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are at their peak, mostly Hill. Hill is the most dangerous offensive threat in the league and he dictates everything they do. They signed Odell Beckham Jr. to be their third WR because they didn’t have one but he’s still on the PUP list so he’s out the first month at least. I’m not counting on Beckham but I actually like rookie Malik Washington eventually. Braxton Berrios just doesn’t do it for me.
The running game was excellent behind Raheem Mostert who stayed mostly healthy last season and De’Von Achane who is a homerun waiting to happen. Achane didn’t stay healthy most of the season so the team doubled down on speed backs by drafting Jaylen Wright. Wright has great speed but is built a lot sturdier than Achane. The offensive line is where this gets dicey. Terron Armstead is back at LT for however long he lasts this season, he’s injured a lot. They lost interior players Connor Williams and Robert Hunt and they are counting on Isaiah Wynn, Robert Jones, and Aaron Brewer inside, that’s not ideal. Somehow, RT Austin Jackson is the lone bright spot on this line.
The defense wasn’t good last year and they mostly blamed Vic Fangio. He wasn’t the culture or scheme fit they needed so they moved on. Now former Ravens’ assistant Anthony Weaver will take his shot at being the defensive coordinator but he’ll do it without DT Christian Wilkins who they lost in free agency. They signed soon to be 38-year-old Calais Campbell and that’s actually and upgrade from what they had left over. They need Zach Sieler to continue to develop. The pass rush would be built around Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips, two very talented players who are both coming back from serious injuries, but Chubb will also miss the first month since he’s on the PUP list too. They drafted Chop Robinson but he’s a raw pass rusher who they plan start, that’s less than ideal. If you told me fellow rookie Mohamed Kamara was more productive this year, I wouldn’t be surprised.
The ILBs are solid, newly signed Jordyn Brooks is a good player if he can stay on the field. David Long Jr. was good last season too and Anthony Walker is a nice rotational guy to have. The secondary has two excellent players in CB Jalen Ramsey and S Jevon Holland, the other spots have questions. CB Kendall Fuller is a veteran who was on some bad Washington defenses, he might be better as a #2 to Ramsey instead of as a #1 in Washington. S Jordan Poyer was a long-time stalwart in Buffalo but he’s getting older and coming off an injury.
New England Patriots
The Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett to be their starting QB so they wouldn’t have to start Drake Maye behind an awful offensive line. The problem is Maye is better suited to play behind a bad offensive line because he’s the better athlete who can actually get himself out of trouble. The offensive line is going to be a problem unless they address the fact they don’t have a left tackle. Vederian Lowe is bad, Chuks Okorafor is so bad they stopped playing him there and started playing Lowe, Caeden Wallace is so bad they barely tried him there. They need to either sign a veteran (someone give them Donovan Smith’s number) or trade for someone (what would it take to get the Steelers to give up Dan Moore Jr?). The rest of the line can be pieced together, LG Sidy Sow, C David Andrews, RG Michael Onwenu, and RT Caeden Wallace, or move Onwenu out to RT and start Layden Robinson at RG. This would work if they had an average LT, they don’t.
The skill positions are all about potential. RB Rhamondre Stevenson was great a few years ago and perhaps new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt can find that guy again. They also added Antonio Gibson who gives them the pass catching back they have been missing since James White retired. At WR they had eight guys to pick from. Kendrick Bourne and KJ Osborn are the veterans with Bourne coming off a serious knee injury and starting the year on the PUP list. Demario Douglas was their best playmaker last year and the slot belongs to him this season. Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker were draft picks this season with high upside, Polk should be the top outside target eventually. Douglas, Osborn, and Tyquan Thornton are penciled in as the starters until Bourne gets back and the rookies get comfortable. Kayshon Boutte beat out Jalen Reagor for the last spot in the top six but he’s job is tenuous as Bourne will eventually be back. Thornton has to take advantage of his playing time right now because the rookies are lurking and Bourne will take his starting spot when he gets back unless he proves too good to bench.
The Patriots’ defense was excellent last year even after losing Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez in the fourth game of the year. Gonzalez is back to be the #1 CB he’s destined to be but the team traded Judon early in camp to Atlanta. That’s understandable as he’s 32, coming off an injury and doesn’t fit the Patriots timeline. They can make do without him although it will be harder with DT Christian Barmore sidelined with a blood clot condition. Barmore looked like a breakout star last season so he’s hard to replace. DE Keion White will have to be the breakout star of the defense this year and he looks poised to do it. Anfernee Jennings and Josh Uche will be the OLBs with Judon gone. Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavi on the inside are solid not spectacular guys.
This defense does have depth all over, they may not be teeming with superstars everywhere but their guys fit their scheme, do their jobs, and the sum is greater than its parts. Where they do have some talent is in the secondary. Gonzalez could be a superstar at CB. Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones should be a fine CB2 and nickel. Jabrill Peppers is better in this defense than he has been anywhere else. And Kyle Duggar is a force at safety playing all over the field. The defense will keep this team from being terrible no matter what the offense looks like but hopefully lets them be bad enough to get a top 10 draft pick next year so they can solve their LT issue in the 2025 draft.
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