This is going to be an interesting division with Detroit being one of the best teams in the NFC, the Packers hoping to be right on their heels, the Bears looking like a much-improved team. The Vikings are counting on Sam Darnold with JJ McCarthy out for the year, that’s a tough place to be in this division.
Detroit Lions
The offense returns almost everyone of consequence and that includes offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, he might be the most consequential. QB Jared Goff will trigger the offense built around WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta, RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the league led by RT Penei Sewell and C Frank Ragnow, two of the best in the game at their respective positions. The biggest issue they offense faces is can Jameson Williams step up and be the #2 WR they need him to be. He has the pedigree and he’s an electric player but he has yet to put it together as a pro. They need him to be the big play complement to St. Brown and LaPorta if the offense is going to be elite.
The defense has questions too but they played well enough last year to make it to the NFC Championship game. They are led up front by DE Aidan Hutchinson who had 11.5 sacks last season. He’s not Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett but he’s steady, he’s tough, and he’s reliable. He sets the tone. They added DT DJ Reader and while he’s not the edge rusher they need opposite Hutchinson, he’s a very good player and he’ll make Alim McNeill even better. Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, and Derrick Barnes should make for a solid LB corps. Campbell should be better and more consistent in his second year.
The secondary was the weak link in the defense last year and the Lions clearly noticed. They traded for Carlton Davis III, signed Amik Robertson, drafted Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw, and are hoping to have Emmanuel Moseley back healthy this year. That’s five CBs they didn’t have last season, that’s a start. Brian Branch was good as a rookie and should be even better this year. The one problem on defense this season shouldn’t be in the secondary, it’s who’s the pass rusher besides Hutchinson on the outside. If they are seriously counting on Marcus Davenport to have that all-so-common seventh-year breakout season, they are going to be sorely disappointed. There are still veteran pass rushers on the market, they should consider signing one.
Green Bay Packers
The signed Jordan Love to a massive contract extension and now they have to hope he’s the guy he was in the last half of last season and not the guy from the first half. They have every reason to think he’s a superstar with the way he finished last year but he needs someone to emerge from his receiving corps. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks all had good years and flashed potential but one of them has to become the alpha. Watson profiles like a #1 WR being the highest draft pick of them all (early second round) and he’s the biggest one of the group. However, Reed and Wicks really stood out last season as playmakers while Doubs was the steady, reliable presence. If Watson doesn’t show out this season Reed and Wicks might prove to be the better options. TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are good players wo keep the offense moving for Love.
The offensive line is the question, not that they won’t be good or whether they have talent, it’s what is the construction of the lineup. LT Rasheed Wallace stepped in for David Bakhtiari and was solid but the team drafted Jordan Morgan in round one. Morgan isn’t guaranteed a shot at the LT spot and it looks like he’s going to be fighting to be a starting guard. Josh Myers is their starting center but he gets mixed reviews. Elgton Jenkins is a very good veteran when he’s healthy and he could play almost any position. Zach Tom started at RT last season and was good, but he might be even better somewhere else. Matt LeFleur needs to figure out his o-line group quickly.
The defense is absolutely stacked from a personnel standpoint and their less-than-stellar performance of the last few years is the reason why Joe Barry isn’t the defensive coordinator any more. Jeff Hafley left being Boston College’s head coach to take over the Packers defense. If he can get them to play up to their considerable talent, he’ll be on the fast track to an NFL head coaching job. This defense has six defensive starters who were first round picks; DE Rashan Gary, DT Kenny Clark, DT Devonte Wyatt, LB Quay Walker, CB Eric Stokes, and CB Jaire Alexander. That doesn’t include backup DE Lukas Van Ness who will be their third DE this season. Also, they paid former Giants second round safety Xavier McKinney a bunch of money to fix their safety position and Preston Smith is the other starter at DE, he was once a second-round pick before coming to Green Bay as a free agent. Talent is not lacking here; the previous scheme wasn’t working. It’s Hafley’s job to fix it.
The Packers can push the Lions for this division if things go right. Matt LaFleur is an excellent coach who was too loyal to a defensive coordinator who wasn’t getting it done for too long. If he found a defensive coordinator who can get them going in the right direction, this team is going to be a handful.
Chicago Bears
The offense is primed to take a major step forward. Shane Waldron is a real offensive coordinator and should be a massive upgrade. Caleb Williams walks into a group of offensive players around him better than any #1 overall QB has ever seen. DJ Moore is a legitimate #1 WR, Keenan Allen is a highly productive veteran slot guy, and Rome Odunze has serious #1 WR potential. D’Andre Swift isn’t my favorite RB and his last two teams have let him walk but he’s a talented player and they have Khalil Herbert and Rochon Johnson behind him, they are fine at RB. The offensive line should be better. I’ve always liked Braxton Jones at LT and I think he could be a breakout player. RT Darnell Wright was good as a rookie last year. The interior of the line should be better with Ryan Bates or Coleman Shelton stepping in to upgrade the group, they can’t be worse than the guys there last year.
DE Montez Sweat transformed this defense last year and probably saved Matt Eberflus’ job. The defense was really good after they traded for Sweat at the trade deadline and he was the catalyst for the turnaround. He added the pass rushing element they didn’t have. It’s too bad they didn’t get him more pass rushing help this off season but they focused on building the offense around Caleb Williams instead. They need to piece together the pass rush with DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson, and maybe some help from rookie Austin Booker.
The LBs should be fine after their investments last off season in Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards. The secondary found some players last season as Jaylon Johnson showed he can handle being the top guy, Kyler Gordon played well in the slot, and Tyrique Stevenson proved his doubters wrong (including me) by being a pretty good rookie CB. The team signed veteran FS Kevin Byard, who is past his prime but a smart veteran. SS Jaquan Brisker has a chance to be a breakout player.
Matt Eberflus has to let Shane Waldron run this offense and build it around Williams’ strengths. Waldron learned under Sean McVay with the Rams before he ran his own offense in Seattle. He understands how to build an offense that suits the QB. Eberflus has to make sure the defense keeps up its play from last year because that saved his job. They didn’t get the defense much help so it’s up to him to figure it out.
Minnesota Vikings
The offense is set up to be highly productive this year. Kevin O’Connell is a smart, forward-thinking play caller and the talent is really good almost everywhere. WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are a great duo. TE TJ Hockenson is coming off a knee injury but he’s a real talent. RB Aaron Jones is an upgrade over what they had last year and the offensive line is pretty good with LT Christian Darrisaw and RT Brian O’Neill holding down the edges. There’s just one issue, the QB. Sam Darnold was supposed to have to beat out JJ McCarthy and probably give way to him eventually, well that’s not happening. McCarthy will miss his rookie season and it’s Darnold or bust. In the Vikings’ world bust means Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall, that was a bad plan last year and I doubt it will be better. Can Darnold be Kirk Cousins? History says no, it’s up to O’Connell to get him there.
The defense was better than the sum of its parts last season thanks to defensive coordinator Brian Flores. He schemed it up well enough to keep the defense respectable but they lost Danielle Hunter, their top pass rusher and he has to get the best out of Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. Those two guys were signed as edge players to give Flores the versatility he wants in the front seven. At LB they found Ivan Pace as an undrafted free agent last season and he was very good. Blake Cashman steps in coming over from Houston, he’s solid but not spectacular. The front seven should be fine, it’s the secondary that’s going to cause issues.
Byron Murphy Jr. was their best CB last year but it was a low bar to clear. They signed Shaq Griffin off the scrapheap but even they realized that wasn’t going to fix anything. They finally signed Stephon Gilmore to give them legitimate shot at having a #1 CB. Gilmore is past his prime but he’s still an upgrade for the Vikings. At safety, Harrison Smith returns for his centennial anniversary with this team, or it just feels that way. He’s old but still effective. Cam Bynum is his partner, he’s fine.
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