Disclaimer: There is something everyone needs to know about this draft. Somewhere around the middle of round five this draft took a serious dive in quality. There were somewhere around 150-160 good prospects in this draft and then there was a cliff. Some teams reached before the 150th pick so the depth goes a little farther but by the time rounds six and seven came around, it got pretty bleak. There were a few contributing factors. One is the covid year has given players the opportunity to stay in college for an extra year and plenty of guys are taking that opportunity. Second is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities for guys to make money in college. Being a late round pick isn’t as attractive if you can get paid to be a good player in college. Finally, the transfer portal (coupled with NIL) means guys don’t have to go pro to cash in. If another school wants you more than the one you’re at (this is especially true for small school guys), just transfer somewhere and take the payday. There are usually between 100-130 early entry candidates for the draft, this year, there were less than 60 and it showed.
Atlanta Falcons
(8) Michael Penix Jr QB Washington
(35) Ruke Orhorhoro DT Clemson
(74) Bralen Trice Edge Washington
(109) Brandon Dorlus DL Oregon
(143) JD Bertrand LB Notre Dame
(186) Jase McClellan RB Alabama
(187) Casey Washington WR Illinois
(197) Zion Logue DL Georgia
Immediate Impact: None (I almost just put a laughing emoji, except it’s not that funny)
This team signed Kirk Cousins because they want to compete right now, then they drafted no one of consequence. Weird strategy. Are we sure Bill Belichick didn’t run this draft?
Best Value: Edge Bralen Trice
Trice is a quality pass rusher who lacks ideal speed and quickness but he wins with relentlessness and intelligence. He understands pass rush moves and how to use them. He’s a quality player and with only Arnold Ebiketie and Lorenzo Carter ahead of him, he’ll get used by the Falcons.
Sleeper: DL Brandon Dorlus
Dorlus is like the larger version of Trice, he’ll play up front on the d-line instead of at OLB like Trice but he’s a solid player who lacks elite athleticism. He has size and power to play multiple spots on the defensive line and give Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake some options up front. He’s not going to overwhelm anyone but he’s going to be a solid player.
Overall Analysis
This is probably the only draft I like less than the Jaguars draft, at least the Jaguars got someone in round one I like. This draft will be defined by the Michael Penix Jr. pick but not just because he’s a QB and it was a truly baffling pick. The rest of this draft is just underwhelming players with what feels like a lot of low ceilings. The Penix pick has been dissected to hell. The process of paying Kirk Cousins $100 million in guaranteed money and then drafting a soon-to-be 24-year-old rookie QB is just bad team building. Because of the eventual dead money on Cousins’ contract if you want out in two years, you never reap the benefits of a rookie QB contract before you would have to pay Penix. They followed that pick up with more head scratchers.
DT Ruke Orhorhoro is a raw interior defensive lineman who’s a little light against the run and really raw as a pass rusher. He’s not going to help a team looking to win this year very much. Also, they traded up to get him when they already have their starting defensive linemen and if they really wanted a defensive lineman, why not draft Johnny Newton? Again, bad process and a suspect prospect. Bralen Trice and Brandon Dorlus are solid additions to the front seven but this team needs difference makers, especially pass rushers, and none of the three guys (Orhorhoro, Trice, or Dorlus) fill that need. LB JD Bertrand is depth piece at LB. Sixth round RB Jase McClellan is maybe the fourth RB on the depth chart, if he makes the roster. WR Casey Washington might make the roster but that says more about the depth after their top three guys than it does about him. DL Zion Logue is fighting an uphill battle against a veteran starting group and the two defensive linemen they took before him.
Carolina Panthers
(32) Xavier Legette WR South Carolina
(46) Jonathan Brooks RB Texas
(72) Trevin Wallace LB Kentucky
(101) Ja’Tavion Sanders TE Texas
(157) Chau Smith-Wade CB Washington St.
(200) Jaden Crumedy DL Mississippi St.
(240) Michael Barrett LB Michigan
Immediate Impact: WR Xavier Legette
The Panthers remade their WR group with trade for Diontae Johnson from Pittsburgh and the slight move up into round one to get Xavier Legette. Legette was a one-year wonder at South Carolina last season but it was a big year. He’s a big, physical WR with elite speed, it’s his understanding of the position that might slow him down. With Johnson and the returning Adam Theilen, Bryce Young won’t have to rely on Legette in critical situations but they need him to be playmaker in this offense, they don’t have many big-play guys.
Best Value: TE Ja’Tavion Sanders
I liked Sanders as a second-round pick and he went in round 4. The Panthers aren’t great at TE and Sanders can take the job from Tommy Tremble. Young isn’t a great over-the-middle passer but Sanders will be a better target than the other TEs they have so that might improve. Sanders isn’t the most athletic TE but neither was Sam LaPorta in last year’s draft and that worked out just fine.
Sleeper: CB Chau Smith-Wade
The team has Jaycee Horn who they are counting on to be the CB1. They signed veteran Dane Jackson for the other outside spot. Troy Hill is penciled in as the nickel back but he’ll be 33 this year and has bounced around a bit. Smith-Wade is a little undersized which is why he will move inside to slot corner and his toughness and attitude will serve him well. I think he will beat out Hill and he has a chance to be a good nickel corner.
Overall Analysis
The Young trade is still hanging over this team and now Young’s presence is dictating more moves to try to make him better. The Johnson trade was to get Young a dependable pass catcher and then they traded up a spot to get Legette to give Young an outside playmaker. Taking draft picks to give your young QB some help is fine but when you’re doing it trying to fix him, that’s not a great place to be. RB Jonathan Brooks is a very talented RB who will eventually be the starter here but it will take some time. He had knee injury late last season at Texas so he won’t be 100% to start the year. They shouldn’t rush him back, this team isn’t ready to compete anyway, make sure he’s fully healthy before he’s given a big workload. He has a huge upside if they do it right.
LB Trevin Wallace is a superb athlete who relies too heavily on his athleticism to get him out of trouble and gets blocked a little to easily. He’ll sit behind Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell and hopefully pick up some tricks of the trade from those two very talented veterans. Sanders can be very useful and he was a value pick for sure in round four. Smith-Wade was nice pickup for the defense too, he can play. The last two guys are depth pieces at best, like I said, this wasn’t a great draft late.
New Orleans Saints
(14) Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon St.
(41) Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
(150) Spencer Rattler QB South Carolina
(170) Bub Means WR Pittsburgh
(175) Jaylan Ford LB Texas
(199) Khristian Boyd DL Northern Iowa
(239) Josiah Ezirim OL Eastern Kentucky
Immediate Impact: OT Taliese Fuaga
The Saints offensive line was a mess last year with Trevor Penning failing pretty spectacularly at LT and Ryan Ramczyk’s knee injury at RT. They need help and Fuaga is the guy. He’s likely to start at LT for now unless Penning miraculously figures it out there, then they could move Fuaga to the right side. I would guess they might try Penning at RT instead.
Best Value: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
He didn’t have the season people were expecting last year at Alabama but he was still pretty good. He has all the skills you look for in starting CB and while he’s unlikely to start this year with Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo in front of him, he’s a future starting CB. He fell a bit just like so many other defensive players so he was a value pick in round two.
Sleeper: QB Spencer Rattler
I was never on the Spencer Rattler hype train especially when he was the guy people were talking about as a potential #1 overall pick before the season where he ended up getting benched for Caleb Williams at Oklahoma. That said, he has a chance here. Jake Haener is the only guy he has to beat out for the backup job so that’s not too hard. Derek Carr’s contract makes him entrenched on the roster but Klint Kubiak, the new offensive coordinator, is going to have his work cut out for him making Carr any good. Rattler has the arm talent to win over coaches and the confidence to win over the locker room.
Overall Analysis
This team had a first-round pick who’s an instant starter, a second-round pick who’s an eventual starter and then they didn’t pick again until the fifth round. I like Fuaga and McKinstry and I completely understand taking a shot on Rattler. He’s never been my cup of tea but he was well worth a fifth-round pick. WR Bub Means feels like about 10 previous mid to late round WRs the Saints have drafted over the years. He’ll be depth but not much else for a couple of years and then he turns into Tre’Quan Smith. LB Jaylan Ford is a long LB with some athleticism, he’s not contributing unless it’s on special teams. DT Khristian Boyd is a big body who adds some depth, he can’t be worse than the last guy they drafted from Northern Iowa (Penning). It would be nice if they found a diamond in the rough at OT in round seven but it’s a long shot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(26) Graham Barton C Duke
(57) Chris Braswell Edge Alabama
(89) Tykee Smith S Georgia
(92) Jalen McMillan WR Washington
(125) Bucky Irving RB Oregon
(220) Elijah Klein OL UTEP
(246) Devin Culp TE Washington
Immediate Impact: C Graham Barton, DB Tykee Smith
Barton got lost a bit amongst all the OTs that were first round picks because even though he played LT at Duke, he’s moving all the way inside to center. He’ll be an immediate starter for the Bucs and that will allow them to move Robert Hainsey out to guard which will improve two positions and make their offensive line much better. Barton is going to be very good as a center. Tykee Smith was more of a safety at Georgia but his best position in the NFL is at nickel corner. That happens to be a place the Bucs need someone and he looks like a good bet there.
Best Value: WR Jalen McMillan
I love the Washington WRs and McMillan is going to be a really good pro. He was banged up last year and he still impressed me when he played. The Bucs have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but Evans will be 31 this year and Godwin is getting expensive and has had some injury issues. The only other young WR they have is Trey Palmer and he and McMillan have complementary skill sets so these two could be the future. McMillan was a steal as a late third round pick.
Sleeper: RB Bucky Irving
He’s undersized and doesn’t have the explosiveness you look for in an elite back but he runs hard and he never gives up on getting an extra yard. The Bucs have Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds, the depth chart isn’t all that intimidating. I could see Irving carving out a role and finding some success behind and improved offensive line. He’s undersized and not fast, that’s what they said about Kyren Williams too.
Overall Analysis
This draft plugged a couple of holes and got this team some depth. Barton fills a need to make the interior of the offensive line better, he does, in a real way. The Chris Braswell pick gives them some depth at edge rusher after losing Shaq Barrett. He’s not a sure thing but as a third or fourth rusher in sub packages, he’s a solid addition. Tykee Smith’s ability to cover the slot can be very useful on this team. The McMillan pick slightly edges out the Barton pick as my favorite in this draft.
Irving isn’t an overwhelming physical talent but he can be useful NFL RB. OL Elijah Klein might make this team as interior offensive line depth, that’s probably his ceiling. TE Devin Culp will have an uphill climb to make this TE roster, it’s not great but there are plenty of veteran bodies ahead of him.
The Hott Read 