Disclaimer: There is something everyone needs to know about this draft. Somewhere around the middle of round five this draft took a serious dive in quality. There were somewhere around 150-160 good prospects in this draft and then there was a cliff. Some teams reached before the 150th pick so the depth goes a little farther but by the time rounds six and seven came around, it got pretty bleak. There were a few contributing factors. One is the covid year has given players the opportunity to stay in college for an extra year and plenty of guys are taking that opportunity. Second is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities for guys to make money in college. Being a late round pick isn’t as attractive if you can get paid to be a good player in college. Finally, the transfer portal (coupled with NIL) means guys don’t have to go pro to cash in. If another school wants you more than the one you’re at (this is especially true for small school guys), just transfer somewhere and take the payday. There are usually between 100-130 early entry candidates for the draft, this year, there were less than 60 and it showed.
Houston Texans
(42) Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia
(59) Blake Fisher OT Notre Dame
(78) Calen Bullock S USC
(123) Cade Stover TE Ohio St.
(188) Jamal Hill LB Oregon
(205) Jawhar Jordan RB Louisville
(238) Solomon Byrd DL USC
(247) Marcus Harris DL Auburn
(249) LaDarius Henderson OL Michigan
Immediate Impact: None
This roster is built around quite a few veterans and the team spent money in free agency to fill their biggest needs. Lassiter and Fisher are two guys who will give them competition at nickel back and right tackle but this team is trying to win right now and they will likely stick with the veterans.
Best Value: OT Blake Fisher
Fisher was the “other” Notre Dame OT by the time this draft rolled around but there was a time he was the guy. He was originally the starting LT early on in his career before an injury opened the door for Joe Alt and Alt took the job. Fisher hasn’t progressed like Alt did but he has plenty of ability. He’s a perfect fit in Bobby Slowik’s Shanahan style offense and Tytus Howard isn’t exactly an entrenched starter at RT. Howard, along with most of the Texans offensive line, had injury issues last year. The difference this year is that if Howard misses time, he’s going to lose his starting job to Fisher. Fisher still has some development ahead but his ceiling is higher than Howards. He also has the versatility to swing over to the left side if Laremy Tunsil has injury issues.
Sleeper: S Callen Bullock
Bullock is a long, skinny safety prospect who can’t tackle. That doesn’t seem like a great bet to be good but he has the athleticism to be good and he’s a good deep safety. Some of his tackling issues are poor angles and fundamentals, that’s something good coaching can help. He didn’t get good fundamental defensive coaching at USC, DeMeco Ryans and his staff will do better and can make Bullock a player.
Overall Analysis
This draft class isn’t going to be the thing that helps the Texans over the hump in the AFC. They accelerated their timeline because CJ Stroud was so good last season that they went and got veterans in trades and free agency to compete now. CB Kamari Lassiter is a good football player with bad measurables they hope can help at nickel corner but they still have Desmond King and they signed Myles Bryant so Lassiter won’t be counted on. Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard are the starting OTs unless they get hurt, then maybe Blake Fisher gets a chance. Calen Bullock will only start if Jimmie Ward gets hurt. Now, Jimmie Ward never plays every game in a season so Bullock will get to play but he’s also not their only backup option.
TE Cade Stover will be a useful player behind Dalton Schultz, he’s a good blocker and is a solid pass catcher. However, the team has Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon, and probably one or two backup WRs who will get more volume in the passing game so he’s not going to move the needle. The rest of this draft is very deep depth and practice squad players. GM Nick Caserio quickly remade this roster over the last several years and this team is trying to be more than just a playoff participant.
Indianapolis Colts
(15) Laiatu Latu Edge UCLA
(52) Adonai Mitchell WR Texas
(79) Matt Goncalves OT Pittsburgh
(117) Tanor Bortolini C/G Wisconsin
(142) Anthony Gould WR Oregon St.
(151) Jaylon Carlies S Missouri
(164) Jaylin Simpson S Auburn
(201) Micah Abraham CB Marshall
(234) Jonah Laulu Edge Oklahoma
Immediate Impact: DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell
Latu is pro-ready and he’s going to end up as a starter by the end of the season. Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam are solid pros but Latu is a better pass rusher than either and he can be better against the run. He’ll factor in immediately as a rotational player but neither Paye or Ebukam had double digit sacks last year, Latu can do that. Mitchell is going to the perfect situation. The on the field issues have to do with work ethic and technique, the off the field issues are about attitude and maturity. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are the top two WRs on this team and those two are all about work ethic, technique, and attitude. These are professional men who will set the best example. Also, Mitchell is the perfect complementary piece to Pittman’s intermediate game and Downs’ slot precision. He’s the deep threat Anthony Richardson needs but won’t have to solely rely on.
Best Value: C/G Tanor Bortolini
Bortolini isn’t your typical Wisconsin behemoth lineman, he’s actually extremely athletic and moves really well. He’s not overly powerful, which can get him into trouble but he uses his athleticism to make up for some of that. The Colts offensive line played much better last year but RG Will Fries is still replaceable. Also, Ryan Kelly is a little older at center and even as a fourth-round pick, Bortolini could end up starting at RG now and replacing Kelly eventually.
Sleeper: WR Anthony Gould
Gould is undersized but he has electric speed. He timed 4.39 but when you watch him play, he seems even faster. His frame may mean he has to play in the slot, Josh Downs’ role, but he has a way different skillset to work with. He’s a deep speed guy instead of the quick over-the-middle target Downs is. If they find a way to use his skills in conjunction with Downs, he gives the team another deep threat and he’s a top return man.
Overall Analysis
Latu and Mitchell have clear roles for this team and should contribute early. OT Matt Goncalves is a solid player who can be a nice swing tackle and give them some depth. Adding Goncalves and Bortolini are good moves that give this team more offensive line options and depth. Gould might just be another small speedy guy who never amounts to much or he could end up being a skinnier version of Brandin Cooks.
They took some shots late on some big athletic guys, or as we call them in the draft world, Chris Ballard types. Ballard likes big athletic dudes he thinks he can turn into something. Carlies and Laulu were those types of guys at safety and defensive end. They don’t always mean much but sometimes they hit. Micah Abraham and Jaylin Simpson were more draft picks in the secondary, Ballard was going for the dartboard approach, throw a lot of darts at it and see it you hit anything.
Jacksonville Jaguars
(23) Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
(48) Maason Smith DT LSU
(96) Jarrian Jones DB Florida St.
(114) Javon Foster OL Missouri
(116) Jordan Jefferson DT LSU
(153) Deantre Prince CB Mississippi
(167) Keilan Robinson RB Texas
(212) Cam Little K Arkansas
(236) Myles Cole LB Texas Tech
Immediate Impact: WR Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jaguars wanted to keep Calvin Ridley around but he chose to leave for Tennessee so they end up drafting a bigger, faster, more explosive replacement and they may have just found the #1 WR Trevor Lawrence has been looking for since he entered the league. Thomas isn’t a finished product but he’s better than Gabe Davis and he’s a legitimate threat in the passing game.
Best Value: WR Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jaguars traded down from the 17th pick and still got the guy they probably would have taken there at 23. He isn’t a sure thing like the top three receivers in this draft seem to be but he’s well worth this pick.
Sleeper: OL Javon Foster
The team re-signed Ezra Cleveland and restructured Brandon Scherff’s contract so they should be set at the guard spots. However, this offensive line was not good last year and as great as Scherff has been in his career, he’s going to be 33 and costs way more than he’s worth. Foster was a college tackle that will move inside to guard in the pros, that’s exactly what Scherff and Cleveland did. Foster has the size and power to be a really good guard and while he isn’t set to be a starter this year, Scherff has missed plenty of time to injury before and Foster should eventually be a starter inside.
Overall Analysis
Trent Baalke had me fooled on night one of the draft, he traded back and still got Brian Thomas Jr. and that was a job well done. Then the rest of the draft happened and he went back to being bad at this. DT Maason Smith was a high-level recruit out of high school but he never lived up to that billing and he simply wasn’t a second-round talent. DB Jarrian Jones was a reach, they certainly have a need at CB but Jones isn’t going to be a high impact player. Foster was a good choice in round four but then he followed that up by drafting the other LSU DT, Jordan Jefferson, too high. He clearly watched a lot of LSU last season.
Fifth rounder Deantre Prince has as much of a chance at helping at CB as Jones does from the third round. They drafted RB Keilan Robinson in round five and he’s going to be buried on the depth chart. K Cam Little might have a leg up on Riley Patterson since they spent a pick on him but there’s no guarantee he beats him out. Myles Cole is a really long edge rusher who has plenty of work to do to make a roster. This doesn’t feel like a draft that’s going to save Trent Baalke and Doug Pederson’s jobs.
Tennessee Titans
(7) JC Latham OT Alabama
(38) T’Vondre Sweat DT Texas
(106) Cedric Gray LB North Carolina
(146) Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB Louisville
(182) Jha’Quan Jackson WR Tulane
(242) James Williams S Miami
(252) Jaylen Harrell LB Michigan
Immediate Impact: OT JC Latham, DT T’Vondre Sweat
The Titans have a new head coach in Brian Callahan and their new offensive line coach is his dad Bill Callahan, there is no more Bill Callahan offensive lineman than Latham. He’s essentially a huge bowling ball, the problem is he only played RT at Alabama and the Titans need him to play LT. If anyone can turn him into a LT, Bill Callahan can. T’Vondre Sweat is a bigger gamble. He’s going to have a major impact I’m just not sure it’s going to be a good impact or a bad one. Sweat is a walking red flag. He has off the field issues like his DUI just weeks before the draft and the fact that his weight is an issue too. He has the ability to be a very disruptive force but he has to get out of his own way.
Best Value: LB Cedric Gray
Gray is an instinctive LB prospect with good athleticism, long arms, and is a solid tackler. The Titans are counting on Jack Gibbens and Kenneth Murray at ILB so there’s a chance Gray gets in the lineup quickly. Neither of those two are established starters and Gray has the type of ability you want in a LB. They got him in round four and it’s possible he ends up a starter in Tennessee.
Sleeper: S James Williams
Williams is a big safety at 6’5 215 lbs. and there’s a chance the Titans plan on making him into a LB. He has the athleticism to do that and more but he has to work on his tackling. When he gets to the ball, he can lower the boom but sometimes he misses the tackle all together going for the big shot. He certainly looks the part of a top-flight NFL defender but he doesn’t always play like it.
Overall Analysis
The team went heavy on the defensive side of the ball with only sixth round WR Jha’Quan Jackson joining Latham on the offensive side. I wouldn’t count on Jackson making a big impact, he’s going to struggle to make the roster. They needed help on the defensive side of the ball after changing from the Mike Vrabel/Shane Bowen scheme to a more Baltimore Ravens scheme brought on by new coordinator Dennard Wilson. If Williams ends up a LB that would put three in this group with Gray and seventh rounder Jayden Harrell. Harrell would be an outside pass rusher while Williams and Gray play inside. Harrell has a little juice off the edge and was a nice pick late in the draft. Jarvis Brownlee Jr. gives them another body at CB but he’s way down the depth chart. This draft will be judged by Latham and Sweat because they have the potential to fill major holes on the team and yet both are a bit of a gamble. Latham isn’t a LT by trade and Sweat could be out of the league in two years if he doesn’t get his life squared away.
The Hott Read 