Disclaimer: There is something everyone needs to know about this draft. Somewhere around the middle of round five this draft took a serious dive in quality. There were somewhere around 150-160 good prospects in this draft and then there was a cliff. Some teams reached before the 150th pick so the depth goes a little farther but by the time rounds six and seven came around, it got pretty bleak. There were a few contributing factors. One is the covid year has given players the opportunity to stay in college for an extra year and plenty of guys are taking that opportunity. Second is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities for guys to make money in college. Being a late round pick isn’t as attractive if you can get paid to be a good player in college. Finally, the transfer portal (coupled with NIL) means guys don’t have to go pro to cash in. If another school wants you more than the one you’re at (this is especially true for small school guys), just transfer somewhere and take the payday. There are usually between 100-130 early entry candidates for the draft, this year, there were less than 60 and it showed.
Buffalo Bills
(33) Keon Coleman WR Florida St.
(60) Cole Bishop S Utah
(95) DeWayne Carter DT Duke
(128) Ray Davis RB Kentucky
(141) Sedrick Van Pran-Granger C Georgia
(160) Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Washington
(168) Javon Solomon LB Troy
(204) Tylan Grable OT Central Florida
(219) Daequan Hardy CB Penn St.
(221) Travis Clayton OL England
Immediate Impact: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop
The Bills spoiled the Patriots plans to take Keon Coleman by taking him with the first pick of round two and he’s immediately the best WR on the team. Josh Allen is going to love this guy. There has been a lot said about his “inability” to separate, well his QB last season was Jordan Travis who wasn’t a great passer and often led him into traffic, Allen won’t do that. Coleman is going to be good. Bishop fills a huge need at safety and he should relegate Mike Adams to being the third safety pretty quickly.
Best Value: WR Keon Coleman
They got a legitimate #1 WR with the first pick in round two, that’s ridiculously valuable. Plus, they got Carolina to give them an asset just to move up one spot and take a WR the Bills didn’t even want.
Sleepers: RB Ray Davis, C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
I love these picks from rounds four and five. James Cook was very good once Joe Brady took over play calling last season and the team ran the ball more, one thing he didn’t do well, score. Ray Davis had 21 TDs at Kentucky last year (14 rushing, 7 receiving). He’s going to be a useful player because he knows what to do with the ball once he gets it. Van Pran-Granger will be a better center than Connor McGovern, the guy they are planning to start at center. Van Pran-Granger was a multi-year starter at Georgia, he can get it done in the NFL.
Overall Analysis
The team needs some rookies to contribute this year and I think the first five guys have a chance to do that. Coleman and Bishop are instant starters and Coleman will be a difference maker. Their third pick was DT DeWayne Carter and while he’s got some developing to do, he’s good depth behind Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, and Austin Johnson. Jones is 32 and Johnson will be 30 this year so another body to rotate in helps tremendously. Davis and Van Pran-Granger are mid round picks who can be very helpful.
The last five picks don’t excite me too much. Ulofoshio is an older prospect who is going to find the depth chart hard to crack at LB. Solomon could be a good designated pass rusher but he’s undersized and a little raw, maybe he can learn from Von Miller. Hardy is a speedy, undersized CB who is going to also be buried on the depth chart and find it hard to make the roster. They took two tall, long developmental OTs in Tylan Grable and the English rugby player Travis Clayton, those guys aren’t helping anytime soon.
Miami Dolphins
(21) Chop Robinson Edge Penn St.
(55) Patrick Paul OT Houston
(129) Jaylen Wright RB Tennessee
(158) Mohamed Kamara Edge Colorado St.
(184) Malik Washington WR Virginia
(198) Patrick McMorris S California
(241) Tahj Washington WR USC
Immediate Impact: WR Malik Washington
I don’t have much faith in their first four picks having much of an effect early on. If Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are healthy and Shaq Barrett is ready to go, Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara are going to be deep bench guys. Patrick Paul is going to need some development and Jaylen Wright has Raheem Moster, De’Von Achane, and Jeff Wilson ahead of him. Washington has a chance to be a contributor and I could see him being the third WR just behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Not sure what Mike McDaniel has against tall WRs but Washington fits his profile of being short and good at going over the middle. He doesn’t have the elite speed of Hill and Waddle but he’s a tough cover because of his route running.
Best Value: WR Malik Washington
At 5’8 194 lbs. Washington is short but thick and his change of direction movement is better than his linear speed. He gives the Dolphins another option at WR and I think he’s better than Braxton Berrios and they need someone other than Hill and Waddle.
Sleeper: RB Jaylen Wright
The Dolphins have Mostert, Achane, and Wilson but all three of those guys are prone to injury. Wright is the same type of runner as those guys and he has elite speed too. Mostert is an aging player and Achane isn’t really built to be a workhorse so Wright is the future here. It might take a year or two but he feels like the eventual starter with Achane working as the complementary back.
Overall Analysis
I hated the Chop Robinson pick from the start because I question if he’s that good of a pass rusher to be a designated pass rusher. With so many veterans ahead of him his usage is going to be limited unless there are injuries. Patrick Paul is a solid developmental OT but he’s a strange fit in the Dolphins’ offense. He’s a gigantic human who is really long but doesn’t move all that well and the offense usually likes more mobile linemen. I like Wright and maybe he makes the team move off Jeff Wilson this year but McDaniel trusts Mostert and Achane isn’t going anywhere.
If I were a betting man, I would say Mohamed Kamara will have a faster impact than Robinson. Kamara is an older prospect with a far more impressive array of pass rush moves than Robinson and he can play quickly. Usually, a sixth-round safety, McMorris, who isn’t a great athlete isn’t a good bet to even make a roster but the Dolphins safety position isn’t stacked. WR Tahj Washington continues Mike McDaniel’s obsession with WRs under 6’0 tall but he’s a longshot for this roster.
New England Patriots
(3) Drake Maye QB North Carolina
(37) Ja’Lynn Polk WR Washington
(68) Caedan Wallace OT Penn St.
(103) Layden Robinson OG Texas A&M
(110) Javon Baker WR Central Florida
(180) Marcellas Dial CB South Carolina
(193) Joe Milton III QB Tennessee
(231) Jaheim Bell TE Florida St.
Immediate Impact: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, WR Javon Baker, OT Caeden Wallace
The Patriots took their QB of the future and while a lot of people think Maye needs to sit and learn, I disagree. They don’t have an overly talented group of skill position guys but they do have some solid players. They need a guy to elevate that group and Maye is the guy to do that, not Jacoby Brissett. They only spot where they are really bad right now is at LT, that’s an important spot and I’m not confident Caeden Wallace is the answer. He was the best of the bad choices left when they picked him but I would disagree with the idea he has the athleticism to move to LT. I fully expect the Patriots to look for a veteran stop-gap LT.
The two WRs are really going to improve the passing game. Polk is a ball winner and he will make Maye look good when he bails him out on a bad throw a couple of times a game. He probably isn’t a #1 WR but he’ll have to play one on TV next season. He’s a better option than Kendrick Bourne to fill that role. Baker is a really good deep ball receiver and Maye is going to love him. He has good size and while he didn’t have great timed speed, he’s got great game speed. He has the ability to get deep without just having the speed to outrun guys. Baker will be the type of deep threat the team thought they were getting when they drafted Tyquan Thornton. Hopefully he’s the reason Thornton is playing somewhere else next year.
Best Value: WR Javon Baker
The more I watch this guy the more I like him. He has legitimate WR skills that will translate to the NFL. He has a knack for finding separation and getting open. At the very least he’s a useful NFL WR which is more than I can say for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, Kayshon Boutte, and Jaelen Reagor, so he has that going for him.
Sleeper: CB Marcellas Dial
The one defensive player the Patriots drafted has a chance to stick around. He has solid CB size, he fits the scheme well, and he’s a good tackler. Jonathan Jones is going to be 31 this year and Marcus Jones never stays healthy so Dial could be useful. At worst his good depth at the position and maybe he ends up being the guy opposite Christian Gonzalez.
Overall Analysis
This was a very offense heavy draft and considering the offense was awful and the defense was good last year, that made sense. Also, this was an offense heavy draft class. It will all be judged by what Drake Maye does but that’s what you get taking a QB in the top of the draft. I think the two WRs will end up being very good players and probably sooner rather than later. They drafted Joe Milton III in round six which seemed like a strange pick. Howeve, he’s closer to the same type of QB as Maye than Bailey Zappe and anything that gets Zappe off the roster is a good idea. This draft was largely about moving on from previous offensive draft mistakes and Maye and Milton were a large part of that.
I’m not as sure about the offensive line picks but at least they didn’t waste a first-round pick on a middling LG who might lose his job in year three (yes, that’s a shot at Bill Belichick and Cole Strange). Wallace has the ability to play OT in the NFL I just don’t think he’s a LT. He would get a shot at RT if they hadn’t already signed Michael Onwenu to be the RT. They will give Wallace a shot at LT but he may also end up just being a guard. Speaking of guards, Layden Robinson is a nasty interior mauler they took in round four. The strange thing is they have drafted Cole Strange, Sidy Sow, Atoni Mafi, and Jake Andrews, all interior offensive linemen, in the last two years. David Andrews is still the center but clearly, they don’t like some of these guys. The last pick, Jaheim Bell, is an intriguing player who doesn’t have a defined position. He’s been a TE, an H-back, a WR, a RB, he’s like Taysom Hill if Taysom Hill didn’t think he was a QB. Hopefully Alex Van Pelt finds a creative way to use him, he could be a fun weapon.
New York Jets
(11) Olu Fashanu OT Penn St.
(65) Malachi Corley WR Western Kentucky
(134) Braelon Allen RB Wisconsin
(171) Jordan Travis QB Florida St.
(173) Isaiah Davis RB South Dakota St.
(176) Qwan’tez Stiggers CB Toronto-CFL
(257) Jaylen Key S Alabama
Immediate Impact: OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley
They can tell you that Fashanu will be a backup this year with Tyron Smith starting at LT and then I’m going to point out the fact that Smith hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season for so long people have to google it because they can’t remember back that far. Fashanu is going to start plenty of games at LT and Aaron Rodgers is going to be happy to have him. Corley wasn’t my favorite WR in the draft but he was the 12th overall receiver taken and went in round three so he was a value choice. He also has a nice set of complementary skills to Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. If Aaron Rodgers can find a way to trust a rookie to be his third WR, he’ll be a solid addition to a passing game that needs a little more help.
Best Value: RB Braelon Allen
You really need to look at Allen from two years ago as he wasn’t a good fit in the new Wisconsin offense last season. He’s a talented back and I think he can help this team. Breece Hall is the unquestioned starter but they need some depth behind him and Allen can earn playing time because he’s a good pass blocking back. That skill will endear him to his coaches and Rodgers and should help him get on the field. I don’t think he’ll be a superstar RB but he’s going to be a useful player.
Sleeper: CB Qwan’tez Stiggers
I have no idea if Stiggers is good, I don’t watch a lot of CFL football but I’m cheering for this guy. He dropped out of college before ever playing a game because his father died. His mom ended up encouraging him to try out for the Fan Controlled Football League and he made it. He turned that into a shot in the CFL where he was apparently pretty good. I’m not betting against this guy. The Jets have Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, and Michael Carter II but they could use some depth. Reed might get too expensive once they have to pay Gardner so if Stiggers can stick around, he might be a player. I generally don’t root for Jets’ players; I’m rooting for this guy.
Overall Analysis
Fashanu was the right choice over other players like Brock Bowers or Brian Thomas Jr. Taking care of the LT spot with a top prospect is never a bad idea. I like the Corley pick for them, he fits. I think Allen gives them the depth they need. QB Jordan Travis in round five was smart move. Travis lacks some of the top physical QB skills but the kid can play. I don’t like using the word gamer, but he’s a gamer. He’s at least a solid backup once he’s completely healed from his injury last season. RB Isaiah Davis is a skilled player but he’s coming from South Dakota St. and that’s a major move up, I don’t expect too much from him just yet. S Jaylen Key is a bet on a good athlete from a big program but he’s a longshot to make a roster.
The Hott Read 