Disclaimer: There is something everyone needs to know about this draft. Somewhere around the middle of round five this draft took a serious dive in quality. There were somewhere around 150-160 good prospects in this draft and then there was a cliff. Some teams reached before the 150th pick so the depth goes a little farther but by the time rounds six and seven came around, it got pretty bleak. There were a few contributing factors. One is the covid year has given players the opportunity to stay in college for an extra year and plenty of guys are taking that opportunity. Second is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities for guys to make money in college. Being a late round pick isn’t as attractive if you can get paid to be a good player in college. Finally, the transfer portal (coupled with NIL) means guys don’t have to go pro to cash in. If another school wants you more than the one you’re at (this is especially true for small school guys), just transfer somewhere and take the payday. There are usually between 100-130 early entry candidates for the draft, this year, there were less than 60 and it showed.
Denver Broncos
(12) Bo Nix QB Oregon
(76) Jonah Elliss Edge Utah
(102) Troy Franklin WR Oregon
(145) Kris Abrams-Draine CB Missouri
(147) Audric Estime RB Notre Dame
(235) Devaughn Vele WR Utah
(256) Nick Gargiulo OL South Carolina
Immediate Impact: QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin
For better or for worse Bo Nix is going to have an immediate impact in Denver. They may have Jarrett Stidham on the roster but you don’t take Nix 12th overall to sit him behind Stidham. Sean Payton clearly believes Nix is a starter and he’s going with him. Grabbing Troy Franklin in round four was smart choice. They need WR help and he and Nix were a dynamic pair at Oregon. Franklin isn’t a perfect prospect but he can play and he gives this Broncos’ offense a nice deep threat, he’s going to play.
Best Value: CB Kris Abrams-Draine
I’m not a huge fan of Abrams-Draine but the Broncos need CB help. He may not earn a starting job but he can earn playing time and finding a useful CB in round five, that’s pretty good. He’s a bit undersized but he plays tough and that will help him.
Sleeper: RB Audric Estime
The team had Samaje Perine backing up Javonte Williams last year but they barely used him. Estime isn’t fast by any means but the man is 225 lbs. of pure power. He will be reliable backup they can count on to give Williams some rest he will punish defenses with his downhill running.
Overall Analysis
This draft will be defined by the success or failure of Bo Nix, that’s just what happens when you draft a QB 12th overall and most people think you reached for him. Nix might be the next Drew Brees but there’s probably a better chance he’s the next Christian Ponder. DE Jonah Elliss is a solid pick up in round three and they definitely need some pass rush help but he’s a third pass rusher at best this year. I like the Franklin pick but I was a bit higher on him than most. I see his limitations but he’s a playmaker and this team needs more of those.
Abrams-Draine has a chance to help a secondary that isn’t teeming with talent beyond Patrick Surtain II. Estime also has a chance to be a useful piece on the offense. Devaughn Vele is a big WR at 6’5 210 lbs. but even with a less than great WR corps here, he’s going to struggle to make this roster. The interior of the Broncos offensive line probably needed more help than late seventh rounder Nick Gargiulo.
Kansas City Chiefs
(28) Xavier Worthy WR Texas
(63) Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU
(131) Jared Wiley TE TCU
(133) Jaden Hicks S Washington St.
(159) Hunter Nourzad OL Penn St.
(211) Kamal Hadden CB Tennessee
(248) CJ Hanson OL Holy Cross
Immediate Impact: WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia
It feels like Worthy is redundant after they signed Marquis Brown but the Chiefs traded up to get him so Andy Reid has a plan to use him. He has elite speed but the rest of his receiver skills need some work. Suamataia is a raw prospect too but he has less competition to take the LT spot. The Chiefs might like Wayna Morris a little but they also traded up to get Suamataia, that says something.
Best Value: S Jaden Hicks
Hicks has starter ability and Chiefs have been excellent at taking mid to late round draft picks in the secondary and getting the best out of them, Hicks is next. Justin Reid and Bryan Cook are the starters but Cook got banged up a bit last year and Hicks will be ready to go if they need a guy. His skillset will also be useful as a third safety if they want to use that scheme a bit.
Sleeper: TE Jared Wiley
Wiley is a big target at TE at 6’7 and he’s got a huge catch radius. He’s a smooth athlete and he’s more pass catcher than blocker, that shouldn’t be an issue in KC. He’s not going to step in right away and take snaps from Travis Kelce or Noah Gray but he’s a nice investment in the future of the position.
Overall Analysis
I’m not a fan of the Worthy pick, I’ve made that clear, but Andy Reid must see something he thinks he can use. The idea that Worthy is going to be the next Tyreek Hill seems like fantasy to me because he’s not the same type of player. Suamataia is worth the gamble that he could be the future LT the team needs. They will give him every chance to win the job next season and hold it down for the foreseeable future. He has all the physical skills and measurables you like for the spot and he can’t be worse than Donovan Smith was last year.
TE Jared Wiley and S Jaden Hicks were great fourth round picks and the Chiefs have been good at getting value in the middle rounds of the draft. These guys are investments in the future for when Kelce retires and when they don’t want to pay Justin Reid at safety anymore. I like the Hunter Nourzad pick too. He’s also an investment in the future. He can play any of the interior spots of the o-line and Joe Thuney is getting older and is expensive and the team might have to choose between C Creed Humphrey and RG Trey Smith about which one to pay. Nourzad might be a starter in a year or two. The last two picks aren’t guys they will count on but add depth at CB and o-line.
Las Vegas Raiders
(13) Brock Bowers TE Georgia
(44) Jackson Powers-Johnson OL Oregon
(77) Delmar Glaze OT Maryland
(112) Decamerion Richardson CB Mississippi St.
(148) Tommy Eichenberg LB Ohio St.
(208) Dylan Laube RB New Hampshire
(223) Trey Taylor S Air Force
(229) MJ Devonshire CB Pittsburgh
Immediate Impact: TE Brock Bowers, G Jackson Powers-Johnson
The Raiders are being criticized a bit for drafting Brock Bowers in round one a year after drafting Michael Mayer in round two at TE. That’s an uninformed opinion of Bowers. Certainly, they had bigger needs than TE but Bowers isn’t you’re typical TE and he was the best player on the board. He’s essentially going to replace Hunter Renfrow as their slot receiver and do even more in the offense. Jackson Powers-Johnson is going to fill a huge hole at guard since they just re-signed Andre James at center and he was a steal in round two.
Best Value: OG Jackson Powers-Johnson
He’s not your typical center prospect where he’s a guy who’s too small to play guard so he plays center, he’s 6’3 323 lbs., he’s plenty big. The Raiders were looking at starting Cody Whitehair at one guard spot because they had no one else. Powers-Johnson is the perfect guy to start out at guard and let him get reps, he hasn’t been an offensive lineman all that long.
Sleeper: OT Delmar Glaze
Glaze was a guy who gave up some pressures regularly at Maryland but it mostly has to do with his technique, that what coaching is for. He only measured 6’4 at the combine but he has 35-inch arms with a wingspan of nearly seven feet. That means he has the length to stay at OT and the Raiders need a RT. If Glaze beats out Thayer Mumford for the starting RT job, it won’t be all that surprising. If he doesn’t work out at OT he can move inside to guard and that’s not a bad thing for them either.
Overall Analysis
The Raiders didn’t get a QB in this draft so they did the next best thing, they tried to set up the offense in a better place to get one next year. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell will hold the spot down for the year and I applaud them for not making a Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix move considering where those two went in the draft. Bowers, Powers-Johnson, and Glaze give them three guys who can start on the offense and actual upgrade the talent. I hope Luke Getsy and the new offensive staff in Las Vegas can come up with creative ways to use Bowers. They also took a shot on a small school back, Dylan Laube, who brings some juice to the backfield. He’s basically the newer version of Ameer Abdullah and Abdullah is 30 so Laube comes at the right time.
They didn’t do anything early to help their defense and that might haunt them a little. They took CB Decamerion Richardson in round four and I usually won’t give a tall, skinny CB that late much credence but this secondary is rough so Richardson could find playing time. LB Tommy Eichenberg was taken in round five, he’s not a dynamic player but he’s a steady one and I’m not betting against a guy who played LB at Ohio St. as effectively as he did. The last two picks were S Trey Taylor and CB MJ Devonshire, I’m not writing them off either, like I said, this secondary is bad. Both guys have shot to make the roster and Devonshire has potential at nickel corner.
Los Angeles Chargers
(5) Joe Alt OT Notre Dame
(34) Ladd McConkey WR Georgia
(69) Junior Colson LB Michigan
(105) Justin Eboigbe DL Alabama
(137) Tarheeb Still CB Maryland
(140) Cam Hart CB Notre Dame
(181) Kimani Vidal RB Troy
(225) Brenden Rice WR USC
(253) Cornelius Johnson WR Michigan
Immediate Impact: RT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson
The long national nightmare of the Chargers trying to make Trey Pipkins their RT is finally over, welcome Joe Alt. Alt will make the move from LT to RT but he’s a good athlete who shouldn’t have a problem doing so. The team needed a replacement for Keenan Allen who was a Justin Herbert favorite because he was a route running savant and was always where he was supposed to be, welcome Ladd McConkey. McConkey is the best route running WR in this class can he steps right in. The defense has been trying to find a good MLB for years, welcome Junior Colson. He’s a tackling machine and he comes with the added bonus that he played for Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter at Michigan and can call this defense in his sleep. First three picks, three instant starters and guys who can be difference makers.
Best Value: LB Junior Colson
Getting Colson in round three is highway robbery. He’s the best LB in the class and he’s going to the perfect situation where he steps in and will actually be ahead of his teammates in knowing the defense. That’s a rarity for a rookie and for the MLB to be able to come in as a rookie and help the new defensive coordinator install his defense is invaluable. I don’t know how the rest of the league let this happen.
Sleeper: WR Brenden Rice
It’s weird to call the son of the greatest WR ever a sleeper but Brenden Rice has never made anyone really think of his father with his play. He’s been a good WR but he’s never been great and he has a different game than Jerry had. In this case, it’s a good thing. He’s a big bodied WR at 6’3 210 lbs. and he play physical football. He doesn’t have great speed but he’s a deep ball guy who somehow gets open and Herbert has the arm to use him down the field. This offense is trying to also replace Mike Williams who was another big downfield guy without great speed. Rice looks like a more natural replacement in that role than Joshua Palmer has proven to be and Quentin Johnston isn’t that guy at all, that’s just not his game. Rice might be that guy.
Overall Analysis
The top three picks were right on point and fill three big holes immediately, that’s how you do it. They took DT Justin Eboigbe after that and while he doesn’t solve a problem on the defensive line, if you’re taking a shot on a defensive lineman, take one that played at Alabama for Nick Saban. In round five they took two CBs, Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart. These two probably aren’t the answer to the issues at CB but they took two swings on solid prospects, maybe one of them hits.
Harbaugh clearly wants to run the ball and was clearly unhappy with the RB room he had so he added Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins from Baltimore. You can’t rely on those guys to stay healthy all year so they took Kamani Vidal a RB out of Troy. Interesting prospect who can run between the tackles and doesn’t have elite speed, he’s perfect for Harbaugh’s offense. The last two picks were Rice, who I really like as a seventh-round pick. Then Harbaugh had to have one more Wolverine so he took WR Cornelius Johnson. Johnson isn’t spectacular but he’ll know the offense. With McConkey, Rice, and Johnson around, I wouldn’t feel all that comfortable if I were the incumbent WR group. Even Quentin Johnston, last year’s first-round pick should be feeling the heat, he needs to be a lot better than he was last year.
The Hott Read 