Disclaimer: There is something everyone needs to know about this draft. Somewhere around the middle of round five this draft took a serious dive in quality. There were somewhere around 150-160 good prospects in this draft and then there was a cliff. Some teams reached before the 150th pick so the depth goes a little farther but by the time rounds six and seven came around, it got pretty bleak. There were a few contributing factors. One is the covid year has given players the opportunity to stay in college for an extra year and plenty of guys are taking that opportunity. Second is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities for guys to make money in college. Being a late round pick isn’t as attractive if you can get paid to be a good player in college. Finally, the transfer portal (coupled with NIL) means guys don’t have to go pro to cash in. If another school wants you more than the one you’re at (this is especially true for small school guys), just transfer somewhere and take the payday. There are usually between 100-130 early entry candidates for the draft, this year, there were less than 60 and it showed.
Chicago Bears
(1) Caleb Williams QB USC
(9) Rome Odunze WR Washington
(75) Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale
(122) Tory Taylor P Iowa
(144) Austin Booker DE Kansas
Immediate Impact: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, P Tory Taylor
I don’t think I have to explain the fact that Williams will have an immediate impact. The Bears have built a readymade offense for him to step into and this franchise wants to win now, they have been waiting awhile. Odunze might only be the third WR with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen bringing more experience but Odunze will make his mark. Taylor steps in as the starting punter and just like he did for Iowa’s defense, he’ll make the Bears defense better by pinning their opponents deep. I’m not sure if the Bears will have a gunner like Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, who had a unique connection with Taylor, but for their sake, they should hope he finds one.
Best Value: WR Rome Odunze
He may have been the ninth overall pick but his ceiling is being one of the top five WRs in the NFL. He’s not likely to get there in the next year or two while Moore and Allen are around but he will eventually be one of the elite receivers in the league.
Sleeper: DE Austin Booker
The Bears were out of picks after the Taylor pick in round four and then they traded picks in next year’s draft to get into the fifth round to take Booker as he fell. Booker has great length for a DE at 6’6 but he’s a bit light and plays too upright. Teams are intrigued by his physical profile and athleticism. Booker isn’t going to come in and start and probably isn’t going to play much initially, at best he’s a situational rusher. However, with some time in the weight room and some real coaching of his technique, he has a chance to be a good DE.
Overall Analysis
This draft class was small and it will be judged by Caleb Williams’ career, there’s no getting around that. Odunze is going to be great, not good, great. Taking a chance on Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie was a solid choice. He has all the measurables of a starting LT, he just isn’t ready for NFL competition. With Braxton Jones at LT, Amegadjie is an investment in the future. I’m a fan of Jones but if he doesn’t work out in a year or two, Amegadjie might be an option to replace him. Most people don’t like teams taking a punter in round four but Taylor is the exception, the Bears defense just got better, he’s a field position weapon. Booker is raw but moldable, he’s a solid choice in round five.
Detroit Lions
(24) Terrion Arnold CB Alabama
(61) Ennis Rakestraw CB Missouri
(126) Giovanni Manu OT British Columbia
(132) Sione Vaki S/RB Utah
(189) Mekhi Wingo DT LSU
(210) Christian Mahogany OG Boston College
Immediate Impact: CB Terrion Arnold
The Lions roster is in pretty good shape except for in the secondary. Arnold was a gift at 24th overall after defensive players got pushed down by the run of offensive players to start the draft. Arnold should start opposite Carlton Davis III as the other outside CB. He’s the perfect fit for the Detroit defense and he’s the exact personality Dan Campbell wants on his team. Arnold should ascend to be the CB1 over Davis pretty quickly in Detroit.
Best Value: CB Terrion Arnold
The offensive player run to start the draft pushed really good defensive players down the board and Arnold was one of many defenders who ended up as great value picks towards the end of round one.
Sleeper: OG Christian Mahogany
Mahogany was probably a higher rated prospect going into the year and then his play was a little up and down this season. He’s still a talented interior blocker and has starter potential. The Lions re-signed Graham Glasgow and signed Kevin Zeitler to fill the holes at OG so Mahogany will be a backup this season. Zeitler is already 34 and Glasgow will be 32 so Mahogany won’t have to sit too long before he has a chance to take a job and I think he can be a long-term starter in the league.
Overall Analysis
Arnold was a huge pick for a team in desperate need to overhaul its CB group this off season. Between that pick and the Davis trade, they made some serious upgrades. I haven’t been a big Ennis Rakestraw fan but as a guy who will only be asked to be the fourth or fifth CB on this roster (depending on Emmanual Mosely’s health), that’s a good place for him. He upgrades the overall talent in the secondary. OT Giovanni Manu was a bit of a reach even in round four. He’s an international prospect that is going to take a while to become anything. However, he is 6’8 350 lbs. so there is something there to work with. The Lions just lost Matt Nelson, a guy who played DT at Iowa who they developed over several years into a legitimate swing tackle so they should have a plan for Manu.
Sione Vaki is an interesting prospect because he played both ways at Utah. He is a safety who’s a bit limited overall but he also played RB and was actually pretty good. The Lions have plenty of depth at RB so he’s probably going to have a better shot at safety but I think initially he’s on special teams and just a versatile player they can use anywhere. DT Mekhi Wingo is a slightly undersized penetrating tackle who will be a deep backup they hope to develop behind Alim McNeil.
Green Bay Packers
(25) Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
(45) Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M
(58) Javon Bullard S Georgia
(88) MarShawn Lloyd RB USC
(91) Ty’Ron Hopper LB Missouri
(111) Evan Williams S Oregon
(163) Jacob Monk OL Duke
(169) Kitan Oladapo CB Oregon St.
(202) Travis Glover OT Georgia St.
(245) Michael Pratt QB Tulane
(255) Kalen King CB Penn St.
Immediate Impact: OT Jordan Morgan, S Javon Bullard
Morgan was a multiple year starter at LT at Arizona and while most teams had him pegged to be a guard, in Green Bay’s offense he could play tackle. I think it’s more likely he plays RT and they move Zach Tom inside but Morgan could replace Rasheed Wallace at LT potentially. The good thing about Morgan is he could play four different positions so he will allow the Packers to find their best combination of five blockers up front. Bullard is a bit undersized and was a late second-round pick but he’s a stud safety. He can team with Xavier McKinney and be the starter immediately given the competition at the position.
Best Value: S Javon Bullard, RB MarShawn Lloyd
Bullard may be a bit small but he’s just a tough football player and he’s going to be a starter. Lloyd is a very talented RB and if Josh Jacobs gets injured or just nicked up, it could be Lloyd and not AJ Dillon who ends up as the replacement back. He has some nice long-term potential as the starter once Jacobs is gone.
Sleeper: QB Michael Pratt
Pratt isn’t a threat to Jordan Love but if I’m Sean Clifford I’m not feeling so great. I’ve never understood what Green Bay sees in Clifford but Pratt is a good player. I can see Pratt replacing Clifford and if for any reason the Packers need someone to stand in for Love, Pratt could show he’s a pretty good. I think he could also do that in the preseason and eventually be a guy a team takes a chance on.
Overall Analysis
The Packers have a big draft class with 11 players and there is no way that many guys are making the roster. Morgan will be a starter somewhere on the line. Edgerrin Cooper is a plus athlete but he’s raw and undisciplined and needs some coaching. They can find a place to use him but he’ll take a little time. Bullard can start and excel. Lloyd will prove to be a valuable RB for the team. LB Ty’Ron Hopper gives the Packers some depth and I would guess he’ll be a special teams player.
The end of the draft wasn’t great for anyone so the Packers just took players at positions where they need help. S Evan Williams, CB Kitan Oladapo, and CB Kalen King are dice rolls. King was a guy who was highly thought of early in his career and then fell off a cliff with his play. Jacob Monk and Travis Glover are offensive linemen who should be competition for depth on the roster but probably not guys you want to count on. I like Pratt, he has a chance.
Minnesota Vikings
(10) JJ McCarthy QB Michigan
(17) Dallas Turner Edge Alabama
(108) Khyree Jackson CB Oregon
(177) Walter Rouse OT Oklahoma
(203) Will Reichard K Alabama
(230) Michael Jurgens OL Wake Forest
(232) Levi Drake Rodriguez DL Texas A&M Commerce
Immediate Impact: QB JJ McCarthy, Edge Dallas Turner
They can talk all they want about Sam Darnold but they took McCarthy 10th overall, he’s not backing up Sam Darnold. McCarthy is in an elite situation for a rookie QB with arguably the best WR in football, a really good WR2, and one of the best TEs in the game. His offensive line is solid and his head coach’s offensive system is built for his skillset. Turner may not initially start with the team signing Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel but he’s going to play a lot. Turner has the versatility Brian Flores loves and he’ll be a big part of the defense.
Best Value: Edge Dallas Turner
Turner might be the best pass rusher in this draft and because of how it fell he went 17th overall. He’s a perfect fit for the scheme and he’s going to outplay being the 17th overall player in this draft.
Sleeper: CB Khyree Jackson
He may have been a fourth-round pick but this guy is a player. He’s a long CB at 6’4 with excellent speed for a guy his size (4.5 in the 40). His size works against his technique because he doesn’t sink his hips as well and isn’t smooth turning and maintaining coverage. That said, this CB group in Minnesota isn’t great so he can earn some playing time. He needs reps and with a defensive mind like Brian Flores coaching him, he’ll get the best out of him.
Overall Analysis
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did some wheeling and dealing to end up with his QB at ten and then an awesome edge rusher at 17. McCarthy fits this offense well and he’ll be pretty good. Turner is going to shine in this defense. They waited a long time after the first round to pick but I like Jackson and he can fill a need for this team. OT Walter Rouse was a solid investment for team that could use a good backup OT. Drafting kickers can be tricky but Will Reichard steps in immediately and he’s kicked in big games for Alabama, I expect him to be solid. Jurgens and Rodriguez are late round flyers on guys who might add depth on the line, never bad idea.
The Hott Read 