2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0
This is my post-combine, pre-free agency mock draft so it’s going to change this next week as teams sign free agents that change their team needs. Some teams might make trades that affect the way they approach the draft in April and we will get a better sense of what teams are looking to do. For example, it’s been rumored the Broncos are looking to trade for Sam Howell as an inexpensive option to compete with Jared Stidham at QB and that would mean they aren’t looking to make a move for a QB.
In this draft I’m going to make some trades to see how things might change, how they might fall, and predict how desperate teams are to get they guy they want. Going into the draft as of now, the Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders are all teams that could move up to draft a QB. However, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell, and maybe even a guy like Ryan Tannehill could change their approach to moving up. Here we go.
Round 1
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Caleb Williams QB USC
We are squarely in the misinformation era of draft season where everyone is trying to influence things and make people second guess and get nervous. Rumors about Williams will be rampant, good, and bad. For now, it looks like Ryan Poles is going to trade Justin Fields, draft Caleb Williams and build his team around his new QB working with a new offensive staff. The market for Fields has cooled considerably but once free agency clears up some QB questions I think he finds a spot for Fields, if not, he may have to be patient and wait until after the draft and try to get a pick in next year’s draft (that’s unlikely but not impossible). Williams has his detractors, and I’m not completely sold on him, but the talent is there if Shane Waldron can find a way to harness it. The Mahomes comps are unfair, Mahomes is one of one, Williams’ upside is elite but his downside is pretty apparent. If they can’t rein in his undisciplined approach and his freelancing undermines the offense, he’s a bust.
2. Washington Commanders (4-13): Jayden Daniels QB LSU
The misinformation campaign against Williams will be coming out of Washington as they try to undermine Chicago’s confidence in Caleb so that they can try to move up and draft him without giving up too much. It’s likely to fail but it’s worth a try, the only way I see the Bears passing on Williams now is if the Commander overwhelm them with a trade offer and unless owner Josh Harris overrules his GM and coach, I don’t think that will happen. This is a change to Daniels because for some reason team’s still have confidence in Kliff Kingsbury as a coach and now that he’s running their offense, I think he’ll talk them into Daniels over Drake Maye. Maye ran a spread offense at UNC but Daniels is the more dynamic runner (Maye is an excellent athlete too but Daniels has more explosive traits). Daniels might get killed if they don’t address their offensive line deficiencies but that’s problem for free agency. Unfortunately for them, there isn’t anyone left in the organization to remind them that they once took RGIII second overall and his career was derailed by injuries because he was a slightly built running QB who got hurt and was never the same. Daniels is a dynamic playmaker and an upgrade for them, if he stays healthy. I think he struggles with certain throws and his velocity isn’t great which could be a problem against NFL defenders but I don’t think Kingsbury will care.
3. New England Patriots (4-13): Drake Maye QB North Carolina
This would be a dream scenario for me as Maye is my favorite QB in this class. He’s big, he was 6’4 223 lbs. at the combine. His athleticism gets dismissed because he’s getting compared to Williams and Daniels but Maye isn’t a statue in the pocket. He has legitimate running ability and the frame to hold up. He’s not Josh Allen running guys over but that’s because he’s smart enough to not put himself in harm’s way. Maye’s confidence in his arm strength and his inconsistent mechanics makes him inaccurate at times which can lead to turnovers but that’s correctable with coaching. He has two years of starting experience which is helpful and last year he didn’t have a great supporting cast outside of WR Tez Walker for half the season so he’s used to playing with lesser talent around him (that will be the case unless New England does well in free agency and the draft at WR). He’s the leader the team needs, he’ll bring guys together and he’s not Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe so he’s got that going for him.
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13): Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio St.
This couldn’t fall better for the Cardinals with three QBs going 1-2-3 and them being the first team not looking for a new QB. They plan is to build around Kyler Murray and step one here is a doozy. Harrison didn’t work out at the combine, he didn’t do media availability either, and it seems like he’s not testing at all for teams. He made it clear his off-season training is about getting better at football not training to do the testing stuff prospects do. It doesn’t matter, watch the film, he’s the best WR prospect I’ve ever seen. He plays inside, he plays outside. He has great size, he’s an elite route runner, and he knows how to get separation in any situation. He can walk into a league filled with elite WRs and he’ll be one of them on day one. Their may be teams trying to trade into this spot to get Harrison or the fourth QB, the Cardinals have to say hell no and just take Harrison, they can’t pass on him.
5. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE from LA Chargers): JJ McCarthy QB Michigan
To put this in context, I think Kirk Cousins signs in Atlanta because Minnesota’s front office doesn’t want to spend $40 million a year on a QB with WR Justin Jefferson and LT Christian Darrisaw coming up for contract extensions. Once they strike out on the free agent market after that, they have to make a move for QB. The Chargers want to move down and they pick up Minnesota’s first in 2025 and maybe a third this year. Minnesota feels they have to get ahead of the Giants at six and outbid the Raiders and Broncos if those teams don’t get free agent QBs. I fundamentally disagree with taking McCarthy this high, he’s simply not this type of prospect but beauty is in the eye of the beholder (I’m really hoping the Patriots don’t get sucked into the McCarthy hype). He’s a solid player and with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson (once he’s healthy), McCarthy can be a good player. I just don’t think he’s worth the trade up or the fifth pick overall. The Vikings like it because he’s a leader and he’ll be on a rookie contract while they pay Jefferson, Darrisaw, and try to spend to fix the defense.
6. New York Giants (6-11): Rome Odunze WR Washington
They Giants will seriously consider a QB if one falls here but they won’t make a move to get one. Daniel Jones has an expensive contract and for now they go with him and try to get him help. Last year they team went into the season with TE Darren Waller as their top pass catcher and then about 17 slot receivers they tried to shoehorn into different roles. Odunze is a WR1. He’s an absolute athletic freak at 6’3, 212 lbs., with 4.45 speed and excellent hands. He has ridiculous catch radius that made Michael Penix look good every game. Odunze went to the combine and with Harrison and Malik Nabers sitting out the testing Odunze was the brightest shining star in a group of really great WR performances. I think he passes Nabers as the second WR because he showed outstanding speed and he’s the bigger player. The Giants need him because of that size he offers they simply don’t have. They have a bunch of slot guys and undersized speed guys like Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton. Waller never stays healthy either and Odunze can be the red zone beast they hoped Waller would be. This would also give the Giants one more look at Daniel Jones with a legitimate NFL WR1, he’s never had one of those his entire career. Every year I have a player I absolutely love and this is that guy this year.
7. Tennessee Titans (6-11): Malik Nabers WR LSU
I’m going against all conventional wisdom here and my own personal beliefs a bit as everyone has the Titans drafting an OT like Joe Alt because their LT situation is awful. That makes sense except two things, Brian Callahan is the new head coach and when he was in Cincinnati, they drafted Ja’Marr Chase instead of Penei Sewell. And his new offensive line coach is his dad Bill Callahan, one of the best o-line coaches ever and he works wonders with lesser guys. Last year Bill was the o-line coach in Cleveland where they had massive injury issues at OT and they never missed a beat because he’s awesome. They could sign a lesser free agent (maybe former Bengal Jonah Williams) or draft someone later. At WR, they need desperate help. DeAndre Hopkins is a good intermediate threat and perhaps Brian Callahan can salvage Treylon Burks as an underneath guy, but they have Will Levis at QB, he has a howitzer for an arm and they have no deep threat. Enter Nabers. He’s an electric downfield threat with elite speed and ball tracking skills and he changes the dynamic of the offense, kind of like Ja’Marr Chase did in Cincinnati.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Dallas Turner Edge Alabama
If the Falcons sign Kirk Cousins at QB the offense only needs some WRs beyond Drake London to fill out the roster and the offense should be fine. Brian Thomas Jr, the other WR from LSU is the next top prospect but there is plenty of depth at the position and they don’t have to reach for him here. They do need to address the defense. DE Calais Campbell will be 38 and the band-aid known as Bud Dupree didn’t do much for them. Both those guys are free agents, they need pass rush help. Turner is 6’3 247 lbs. which might make him a little small if he were just a DE but he’s so much more. He can drop in coverage and play any way you like and at the combine he ran 4.46 in the 40, that plus his other testing numbers showed his athleticism is top-notch. He’s an underrated pass rusher because he didn’t put up big numbers because he does so many other things well too, he wasn’t asked to just get after the passer. He would be a great help to the Falcons front seven for new coach Raheem Morris.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE from Chicago): Joe Alt OT Notre Dame
First the Chargers traded down from 5th to 11th with the Vikings and now they jump up two spots to Chicago’s second pick to get ahead of the Jets to select Joe Alt. The Chargers have been trying to fix the RT spot for years and now Jim Harbaugh is running things (with new GM Joe Hortiz) and one thing Harbaugh did well at Michigan, build the offensive line. Alt is a stud LT and whether he moves to RT or they switch Rashawn Slater to the right side, that’s Harbaugh’s decision to make, either way, the tackle situation is fixed. If they want to run the ball better, they need to be better up front, if they want to protect their Herbert investment, they need to be better up front. I don’t think Harbaugh will go for the flashy thing like Brock Bowers, I think he builds in the trenches.
10. New York Jets (7-10): Olu Fashanu OT Penn St.
The Jets are taking an offensive tackle and while the Chargers snake them and take Alt, settling for Fashanu is like settling for a Lamborghini instead of the Ferrari, you’ll be just fine. The Jets need more than one tackle so they can move Alijah Vera-Tucker back inside but they might get David Bakhtiari if the Packers release him. Fashanu can play right or left tackle so he gives them options and he’s a beast. Fashanu has all the physical gifts and athleticism to be an All-Pro he just lacks consistency with his technique and that will come with coaching and reps. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he ended up on a team with a veteran guy like Bakhtiari who knows all the techniques and tricks of the trade.
11. Chicago Bears (TRADE from LA Chargers): Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
This would be a serious win for Chicago. Thomas would be the perfect addition opposite DJ Moore to give Caleb Williams the best chance to succeed. Thomas is 6’3 209 lbs. with 4.33 speed and the ability go deep on anyone. He has go-go gadget arms to give him a big target radius and while he does drop the occasional pass, he’s pretty reliable down the field. He needs work on intermediate routes but DJ Moore is master at that so he wouldn’t be relied on right away for that and he would have great mentor. Thomas is still raw at a few things but his physical gifts put him way ahead of the curve. In many years, he could have been the WR1 in the draft, he just happens to be in one of the great WR drafts ever and he also was overshadowed at times by one of those guys who was on his own team.
12. Denver Broncos (8-9): Terrion Arnold CB Alabama
The Broncos are taking a massive hit this off season with cutting Russell Wilson and taking a massive cap hit. It’s going to cost them the ability to make some major moves so they need help in the draft and with cheap free agents. I like the idea of them trading for Sam Howell to compete with Stidham at QB whether it happens or not, who knows. They have been patching together the CB position opposite Patrick Surtain II for a couple of years and unfortunately one thing they may have to consider is trading Surtain just to regain some of the draft capital they gave up in the Wilson deal just to rebuild. Either way they need CB help and Arnold is very good. He’s steady, feisty, and versatile, he can play inside and outside. The team had to make moves like cutting Justin Simmons and trading Jerry Jeudy and more hard decisions could be coming. I could see them moving Riley Moss to safety to help fill the void of Simmons and drafting Arnold would make that move a little easier even if Moss hasn’t really shown a lot a CB it would hurt their depth moving him to safety.
13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9): Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon St.
The Raiders could reach here for a QB like Michael Penix or Bo Nix but they have Aidan O’Connell who started quite a bit last season and I think they are more likely to look for a veteran or they are the team left without someone who gives up a middle round pick for Justin Fields. Whatever direction they go at QB they have to get some help up front. Their center Andre James, RG Greg Van Roten, and RT Jermaine Eluemunor are all free agents. Fuaga was a guy that many thought might have to move inside in the NFL but he went to the combine and showed the athleticism and movement skills to at least get a chance to be an OT early. He could end up inside and he would give the Raiders some flexibility to find the best five up front. He’s a big man who moves very well and he’s going to be a player.
14. New Orleans Saints (9-8): Amarius Mims OT Georgia
They drafted Trevor Penning a couple of years ago to be their new LT and he was so bad last year they moved LG Andrus Peat outside to tackle. Peat played fine but he’s a free agent they may not be able to re-sign and if they do, they need him at guard. RT Ryan Ramczyk will be 30 this year and he’s really expensive so they need to plan for the future at OT. Mims only started eight games at Georgia but they were pretty impressive. He’s 6’8 340 lbs. and he moves like a TE. He’s still so young and very raw but his potential is off the charts. Someone is going to take a chance on him and the Saints need a guy like him. They can give him a chance at LT and hope that they can salvage Penning as a RT to replace Ramczyk at some point. Mims has all the traits you look for in a dominant LT. The one scary part is in three years he could be an All-Pro LT or he could be starting for a team in the UFL, he has a wide range of outcomes.
15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8): Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo
There is no reason Mitchell should fall this far other than the fact that so many good QBs, WRs, and OTs are available and so many teams early in this draft need those positions. Mitchell looks like he was built in a lab to play CB. He’s 6’0 195 lbs. with long arms, elite speed (4.33), great athletic traits (38 inch vertical) and great ball skills in coverage. He can play man or zone and he showed great loyalty staying at Toledo when just about anyone else in his situation would have transferred from his MAC school to a power program and made some NIL money. The Colts drafted JuJu Brents last season and Mitchell gives them a guy who can be the CB1 and let Brents settle in at CB2. They need help in the secondary and this is a gift in the middle of round one.
16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8): Brock Bowers TE Georgia
Bowers is one of the elite prospects in this draft but it feels like he could fall to the middle of round one because teams higher up have more pressing needs. The Seahawks take him because they have a pressing need at TE with Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson both being free agents. They also need to address the gapping hole in the middle of their offensive line with all three interior starters being free agents but Bowers is too good to pass up. It’s easier to find interior offensive linemen later in the draft and in free agency than it is to find a Brock Bowers. Bowers isn’t a typical TE, he’s not the biggest body but he’s an uber-athlete with true playmaking ability that will be welcomed in this offense. He gives them another weapon to go with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8): Cooper DeJean CB Iowa
The Jaguars need to fill plenty of holes but in the secondary they released CB Darious Williams and safety Rayshawn Jenkins and Tre Herndon is a free agent. That leaves Tyson Campbell feeling lonely and Cooper DeJean could be just what they need. He’s a versatile defender who can line up at outside CB opposite Campbell but can also slide inside to cover the slot where Herndon used to play. He also can play some LB in subpackages and safety if need be. He’s also a dynamic punt returner and Jamal Agnew is also a free agent. Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold went to the combine and showed out as athletes while DeJean is still rehabbing from a broken leg and didn’t work out. Out of sight, out of mind happens a lot around the combine but DeJean will re-emerge once his has his personal workouts in early April, he’s one of the best athletes in this draft, regardless of position.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8): JC Latham OT Alabama
The Bengals franchise tagged Tee Higgins and while I don’t think they will sign him long-term I think they did it to bring him back on a one-year deal to give it one more shot with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Higgins on offense. They can’t afford to pay all of them but for now Chase is still on his rookie deal next season so they have one more shot if they can get Burrow healthy. Most of the team returns intact but two major holes are at RT, where Jonah Williams is likely to move on, and DT, where DJ Reader is a free agent. Latham is a plug and play starting RT and that’s what they need. Byron Murphy II is a good DT but not the big-bodied NT you want to replace Reader and that’s easier to find later in the draft. Latham didn’t do the testing at the combine but his drill work was good. He’s huge at 6’6 342 lbs. and he’s got powerful hands. He moves better than he should for a man his size and he’s surprisingly good in pass sets, something Cincinnati will like.
19. Los Angeles Rams (10-7): Nate Wiggins CB Clemson
If you like tall, skinny CBs who can really cover but can’t tackle at all, here’s your guy. Wiggins is 6’1 173 lbs. with long arms and elite speed, he ran 4.28 at the combine. He avoids tackling in the run game like the plague but he can stick to his man as well as just about anyone. The Rams defense had Ahkello Witherspoon starting at one spot last year and while he’s not an awful tackler, it’s not what he was known for coming out of college either. Wiggins would upgrade the coverage abilities at CB opposite Cobie Durant and give the Rams a potential CB1. Wiggins is going to struggle against more powerful WRs and that might be an issue for the Rams considering their division has DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel and may have Marvin Harrison Jr. but at this point it’s either Wiggins or Kool-Aid McKinstry and I’m going with Wiggins.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): Troy Fautanu OL Washington
The Steelers are a team looking to compete this year and are likely to address some of the bigger holes on the team in free agency. They are meeting with Russell Wilson to potentially replace Kenny Pickett even if they say he’s just competition. If Wilson goes elsewhere look for Ryan Tannehill to be an option. I think they sign a veteran center to replace Mason Cole, I don’t see them taking a rookie on there. They need another CB but I think the offensive tackle group is better her. Fautanu isn’t the longest or most athletic prospect still on the board (that’s Tyler Guyton) but Fautanu has more experience, is ready to step in right away, and offers flexibility. He could be a RT or he could play guard. He’s probably a better fit assuming the Steelers want to be a run heavy team under Arthur Smith, a pretty solid assumption. Fautanu is a mauler and he could play RT with Broderick Jones flipping to LT to replace Dan Moore and he has the versatility to slide inside if needed at OG.
21. Miami Dolphins (11-6): Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma
The Dolphins have massive holes on the interior of their offensive line, the interior of their defensive line, and in the secondary but if they want to keep the offense humming, they should look to replace Terron Armstead at LT. Armstead will be 33 next year and hasn’t had a healthy season in a long time. Guyton is still raw but the Dolphins offensive design can hide some of his flaws while he learns. They can address the interior of the offensive line later and unless new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver just loves Byron Murphy II at DT, Guyton should be the pick.
22. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): Jared Verse DE Florida St.
The Eagles love to draft offensive and defensive linemen in the first round, it’s a Howie Roseman staple. They have given Hassan Reddick permission to seek a trade, they are taking calls on Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham is older than Joe Biden (in NFL years anyway). Someone has to rush the passer with this very poor secondary behind them. Verse is really good at a lot of things and not a superstar at anything but he’s going to be a good pro, he could be the next Brandon Graham. This edge rushing class isn’t great, they looked awesome at the combine because there are some excellent athletes, Verse is one of them. However, none of these guys are going to be an 18 sack guys any time soon. Capable, versatile, athletic edge players are great but this is where you want to take these guys in the draft, not near the top 10.
23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Byron Murphy II DT Texas
The Texans have this pick from Cleveland and it could be quite valuable if they get a guy as good as Murphy. They have two important free agents on the defensive line in DE Johnathan Greenard and DT Sheldon Rankins and while they can probably afford both, Greenard is the priority. Even if they re-sign Rankins too, he’s 30 and they could use a younger guy to grow with Greenard and Will Anderson up front. Murphy is a quick, penetrating tackle like Rankins and would work well on this line. He keeps the pressure on from the inside to help free up Greenard and Anderson off the edge. The Texans’ defense was far better than anyone expected last year, much like the rest of the team, and Murphy would be a wise investment to keep that momentum going. It doesn’t hurt that GM Nick Caserio comes from New England and head coach DeMeco Ryans comes from San Francisco, two organizations that understand the importance of building a defensive front.
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon
The Cowboys have two big free agents on the offensive line in LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz, there is almost zero chance they re-sign Smith as he’s 33 and hasn’t been the picture of healthy lately. He’s likely to get an expensive one-year deal somewhere else and they can move LG Tyler Smith to LT and be just fine. Powers-Johnson gives them some flexibility. If they don’t re-sign Biadasz, he’s the new starting center and they are good to go. If Biadasz does come back, or they sign a different veteran center, Powers-Johnson just replaces Tyler Smith at LG. He also happens to be a really good center who is only scratching the surface of his talent as he hasn’t even been an offensive lineman his entire college career. They have some other needs but offensive line is an expensive thing to replace in free agency and they need to keep replenishing with youth up front.
25. Baltimore Ravens (TRADE from Green Bay): Laiatu Latu Edge UCLA
The Ravens are a team that has spent some draft capital over the last few years on some highly athletic pass rushers who came with question marks and neither has done much for them. Odafe Oweh is still underwhelming from a production standpoint and David Ojabo hasn’t shown much after his knee injury before his draft. They team had to rely on veteran stop-gaps Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy this last season. They make a move to get ahead of Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Buffalo, all teams that might want pass rushers. Latu is a solid athlete but is a true technician as a pass rusher. He brings a different skill set and the Ravens hope he juices the pass rush more than Oweh and Ojabo have. Green Bay moves down because there isn’t a player they love here.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8): Chop Robinson Edge Penn St.
This is assuming the Buccaneers re-sign Baker Mayfield (it looks like they have a deal). He wants to stay, they want him back, it’s a matter of the sides agreeing to a deal and no other team coming in with some ridiculous offer to steal him. If he leaves, put Michael Penix here because they aren’t turning this team over to Kyle Trask. I think I’ve had Robinson going to Tampa every mock I’ve done and for the same reasons. Shaq Barrett is an aging free agent and not nearly as productive as he once was. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is a flop, and Anthony Nelson is solid rotation guy but not a difference maker. They need pass rush help and while Robinson lacks in other areas, he’s got one nasty first step. He’s super athletic with blazing speed and if Todd Bowles and harness his raw talent, he could make a difference.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
This pick comes down to the best defensive player left on the board and that’s McKinstry. It’s probably a race between Jer’Zhan Newton, the DT from Illinois and McKinstry and honestly the Cardinals can’t go wrong either way. They need defensive help. The defense wasn’t a total catastrophe most thought it would be last year but the lack of talent on that side will catch up with them at some point.
28. Buffalo Bills (11-6): Keon Coleman WR Florida St.
I’m going to be the last rider on the “Keon Coleman is going in the first round” train, I just like him. His 4.6 40 time at the combine may have killed his buzz but I watched him run the gallant drill at that same combine and he ran it faster than every WR, kept his body under control and caught every ball with ease. He has play speed, the ability to use his size to his advantage on jump balls, and he doesn’t back down from anyone. The Bills need a guy like him with Gabe Davis being a free agent they shouldn’t re-sign and Stefon Diggs chronically unhappy. Coleman can complement Diggs’ game or replace him as the WR1 if they decide to move him.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE from Detroit): Kingsley Suamataia OT BYU
This is me calling my shot on a trade we don’t see very often any more. The Chiefs franchise tagged CB L’Jarius Snead, their All-Pro level CB. They just gave Chris Jones a new huge deal, they want to re-sign Willie Gay Jr and a couple of other free agents, they just don’t have the room for everyone. The Lions tried the bargain bin shopping at CB last season and it didn’t work, they need a stud and Snead is just that. Detroit gives up this pick and their third rounder for Snead and Kansas City drafts a new LT. Suamataia isn’t a finished product but the team won a Super Bowl with Donovan Smith last season so they can survive Suamataia’s growing pains. He’s a cheap alternative for the next five years on his rookie contract and that’s worth it alone. The Chiefs have done well drafting secondary players in later rounds recently so they will look for Snead’s replacement later, or they go shopping for a veteran CB willing to take a bit of a discount because they are looking to win a Super Bowl. The veteran CB market isn’t great but it’s probably a safer bet this year than the veteran OT market.
30. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Green Bay): Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington
This changes if the Raiders sign Russell Wilson but if they strike out on a veteran, they trade their second-round pick (#44) and next year’s first rounder to move up to take Penix. It’s an expensive trade but they are trying to move up to secure him before someone else moves into one of these last spots to get a QB with the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round pick. I’m not a Penix fan but I can see some appeal for the Raiders. He’s a downfield passer who would work well with Devante Adams and he has a higher upside than Aidan O’Connell. The offense would be fun and they could sell some tickets in Vegas. Penix is older since he was a sixth-year senior last season so he can start right away. This would be a very Raiders-like move. Green Bay trades down twice, picks up some capital in this draft, and grabs the Raiders first round pick next year, that’s a win for them for sure.
31. San Francisco 49ers (12-5): Darius Robinson DE Missouri
The 49ers are going to have to start making some tough choices because they have a ton of really expensive players and they can’t afford them all for forever. Arik Armstead is 31 years old and his contract doesn’t have any guarantees after next year. They already have Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave as expensive pieces. Robinson is a bit like Armstead in that he can play both inside and outside depending on the situation. He has excellent size and would be a nice complement to Bosa on the other end. Robinson hasn’t been a household name but the 49ers know what they are doing on the defensive front and Robinson would be a cheap, talented option they can really use right now.
32. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): Adonai Mitchell WR Texas
There are going to be a lot of mock drafts that put Mitchell’s teammate Xavier Worthy at this spot because he broke the combine record in the 40 with a time of 4.21; yes, that’s an insane time. The problem is that while Worthy is ridiculously fast, he’s also 5’11 and 165 lbs. He better be fast. Mitchell however, is 6’2 205 lbs. and still ran 4.34 in the 40. Once you’re under 4.4, the difference in speed isn’t overcoming the three inches and 40 lbs. Mitchell has on Worthy. The Chiefs dumped Marquez Valdes-Scantling because he was expensive and his hands were unreliable. Mitchell can do everything MVS did, he’ll do it for far less money as a rookie, and he can actually catch the ball. Mitchell playing with Mahomes is a scary situation for the rest of the league, Mahomes can help Mitchell realize his full potential while Mitchell unleashes Mahomes deep ball to a guy who can do something with it.
Round 2
33. Carolina Panthers (2-15): Jer’Zhan Newton DT Illinois
The Panthers had a disastrous season with Bryce Young being awful, the offense not being competitive, the offensive line taking a huge step back and the defense trying it’s best but failing because it got no help. Somehow this team doesn’t have a ton of talent yet doesn’t have a ton of cash to spend under the cap. They can get more money with a Brian Burns extension to get him off the franchise tag number and moving some money around on Taylor Moton’s contract but they need a lot of help. They have a ton of free agents on defense and they just need talent. Newton is top-level penetrating DT who can disrupt the backfield consistently. He would help make Brian Burns a more effective pass rusher by being a guy offenses have to worry about. Burns doesn’t have a great pass rushing teammate and Newton can be that guy. This team has a long way to go but taking the most talented players is a good start.
34. New England Patriots: Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
The Patriots have money to spend and should try to keep RT Michael Onwenu and give a decent contract to Kendrick Bourne. Also, try to sign Calvin Ridley if possible but avoid Marquise Brown or Gabe Davis. There are plenty of good WRs in this draft if they don’t get Ridley. Trent Brown can take a hike and while Morgan might be best suited to move inside, I’d give him a try at LT, he can’t be worse than Brown was last year.
35. Arizona Cardinals: T’Vondre Sweat DT Texas
The Cardinals shouldn’t overthink this, they need talent on defense and Sweat is awesome at his job. He’s 6’4 366 lbs. and he is the immovable object in the run game. He makes the edge guys better and the LBs better because teams have to account for him inside.
36. Washington Commanders: Graham Barton OL Duke
If the Commanders take Jayden Daniels it’s going to be imperative they get help up front. They have some money to spend on veterans and Barton is a seasoned guy himself. He also brings positional versatility; his best position is probably going to be center but he can easily play guard and he has the ability to play tackle if needed.
37. Los Angeles Chargers: Roman Wilson WR Michigan
It’s a cheap stunt to give Harbaugh a Wolverine but the Chargers have some tough decisions to make with the salary cap and WR Mike Williams is too expensive for how often he gets hurt. Wilson is the type of WR the team has needed for years, a speedy downfield threat who can threaten over the top. He allows Justin Herbert to go down the field. This won’t be the last Wolverine Harbaugh drafts (there are a ton of them in this draft).
38. Tennessee Titans: Patrick Paul OT Houston
This is why Tennessee passed on an OT in round one. Paul is just over 6’7 330 lbs. and he’s pretty raw, but give this raw lump of clay to offensive line guru Bill Callahan and he can be awesome. Paul is a seriously long, athletic prospect that Callahan will do wonders with.
39. New York Giants: Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia
The Giants let Adoree Jackson go and they need another CB unless they really believe Tre Hawkins can hold up opposite Deonte Banks. Lassiter is a more valuable prospect than any of the interior offensive linemen left here, another position they need to address.
40. Washington Commanders: TJ Tampa CB Iowa St.
While I hate to admit it, Iowa St.’s TJ Tampa is a pretty solid prospect. The Commanders need help in the secondary and I think new head coach Dan Quinn will like Tampa’s size and demeanor more than the two CBs from Missouri who are a little undersized. Quinn already has a skinny CB in Emmanual Forbes to deal with, he’ll get the bet out of Tampa.
41. Green Bay Packers (9-8): Tyler Nubin S Minnesota
The Packers traded down twice in the first round, the second time they moved completely out of the round to pick up Las Vegas’ first rounder next season so this is their first pick. This team doesn’t have a lot of holes to fill even if they cut David Bakhtiari (which they will to get some cap space). The one major area of need is safety. Darnell Savage Jr, Rudy Ford, and Jonathan Owens are all free agents and it’s possible none of them return. There are plenty of free agent safeties to sign but the Packers probably won’t spend all their cap space to sign two new starting safeties so they draft one here. They traded out of round one because no safeties were worth a first-round pick. Nubin is a good prospect and this is the right value for him. He’s a good athlete who relies more on his instincts and preparation than his physical traits although his length is an asset. He’s not a man coverage guy but he’s versatile enough to be interchangeable with the other safety to make changing up the defensive alignment easier. Nubin is exactly what you want in a modern safety.
42. Minnesota Vikings: Adisa Isaac Edge Penn St.
Also known as the other Penn St. defensive end. Isaac was overshadowed by Chop Robinson but he’s a good athlete himself with some skill. The Vikings might have to replace Danielle Hunter and DJ Wonnum in free agency and they certainly have to replace Marcus Davenport considering didn’t actually contribute last season and is also a free agent. Isaac needs some development but he’s the type of player and athlete Brian Flores can use on the edge.
43. Atlanta Falcons: Ladd McConkey WR Georgia
You don’t have to be the biggest or the fastest WR to be effective in the Sean McVay offense that Zac Robinson will be implementing in Atlanta, just ask Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. McConkey will be the perfect complement to Drake London on a team that desperately needs WR help and Kirk Cousins will pepper him with targets. Plus, they already love this guy in Georgia.
44. Green Bay Packers: Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CB Missouri
This is one of the picks the Packers get from the Raiders to move up for Penix. There has been some buzz Rakestraw could be a late first-rounder but with some potential medical questions and some size limitations he falls here. The Packers need a third corner who can mix and match with Jaire Alexander playing outside or in the slot, Rakestraw should be able to do that. I really wanted to give the Packers Mike Sanristil from Michigan, he’s the best slot guy left but he’s below their preferred height at CB, he’s only 5’9.
45. New Orleans Saints: Bo Nix QB Oregon
Anyone who tells you they know what New Orleans is going to do in the draft is lying. So, if anyone is going to take a shot on Bo Nix, why not the Saints? New offensive coordinator Klink Kubiak worked for Kyle Shanahan last year so maybe he can make the offense work for Derek Carr, if not, this team doesn’t have many alternatives. Nix might as well be that guy.
46. Indianapolis Colts: Troy Franklin WR Oregon
Alec Pierce just hasn’t developed as the downfield threat the Colts need opposite Michael Pittman Jr. They are clearly investing in Pittman to be Anthony Richardson’s top target but they need someone who can take advantage of Richardson’s ridiculous arm strength. Franklin is a homerun threat down the field and will stretch the defense to help Pittman work the intermediate area and push safeties away from the line to help the running game.
47. New York Giants: Cooper Beebe OG Kansas St.
The Giants have a big need on the interior of the offensive line. They could draft an OT and try moving Evan Neal inside but I think they give him one more year to try RT and that means taking Beebe here. He’s an immediate starter and a massive upgrade at either guard spot and he has versatility to play either side.
48. Atlanta Falcons: Bralen Trice DE Washington
The Falcons need help on defense and while a CB would be nice, the value at DE is better. They took Dallas Turner in round one as the speed guy, now they take the power edge in Trice. He can replace Calais Campbell and give you a power player you need on one side.
49. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Tavion Sanders TE Texas
The Bengals haven’t prioritized the TE position in their offense but right now they don’t have a TE under contract and with Tyler Boyd a free agent they need a pass catcher inside. Sanders is a better prospect than the primary slot receivers left on the board so they take him here and find ways to use him.
50. Philadelphia Eagles: Zach Frazier C/G West Virginia
This is a reaction to Jason Kelce’s retirement but he’s not his direct replacement necessarily. They drafted Cam Juergens a couple of years ago and he’s been playing RG next to Kelce, he should slide inside. However, Frazier gives them options and both Landon Dickerson, the LG, and Juergens, were centers in college who moved to guard. Howie Roseman loves drafting linemen.
51. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Sanristil DB Michigan
Sanristil won’t fill the CB spot the Steelers need outside opposite Joey Porter Jr. but he’s an excellent nickel player and he feels like a Steelers defender. He isn’t the biggest player but he’s smart, tough, and versatile and that will work well in this defense.
52. Los Angeles Rams: Marshawn Kneeland Edge Western Michigan
He’s a small-school guy but that won’t bother the Rams, they made their defense out of no-name guys last season surrounding Aaron Donald and it worked well. Kneeland isn’t a classic edge rusher but his motor never quits and he’ll help take some focus off Byron Young.
53. Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Lynn Polk WR Washington
I gave Howie Roseman his offensive and defensive linemen so now for something fun. The Eagles have a great WR duo in AJ Brown and Davonta Smith (assuming they can keep Brown happy). They have no other WRs to speak of. Polk was a part of the best three-man WR group in college last year, he knows how to share the football and he’s very talented. Also, he’s really good at catching passes that aren’t perfectly placed, that will make him Jalen Hurts favorite.
54. Cleveland Browns (11-6): Braden Fiske DT Florida St.
The Browns don’t have a first-round pick because they traded it for Deshaun Watson, I think that’s the last time I have to type that sentence. On offense they need everyone to get healthy, that includes Watson, RB Nick Chubb, and pretty much the entire offensive line. The defense needs more help. They lose the three DTs beyond Dalvin Tomlinson on the depth chart so they need some new blood. Fiske was excellent at Florida St. and he had a good combine, the only problem is he’s a little short when it comes to his arms. It makes him not ideal so he falls a little, good news for the Browns. Fiske would be a great complement to Tomlinson, who is a big, powerful run-stuffer in the middle. Fiske is the quick, penetrating tackle type who would take a little focus off of Myles Garrett in the pass rush and give the defensive line a different skill set.
55. Miami Dolphins: Ruke Orhorhoro DT Clemson
I know I should put Xavier Worthy here but it’s just too easy. Both DTs Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis are free agents and even if they get one or both back, they need a rotational piece at least. Orhorhoro isn’t well-known outside the scouting world but he’s an ascending player.
56. Dallas Cowboys: Xavier Worthy WR Texas
The Cowboys need to do some work to open up some cap space and that might mean Brandin Cooks and/or Michael Gallup don’t return. CeeDee Lamb needs someone to take some focus away. I’m not a huge Worthy fan, his lack of size scares me, but his speed will scare defenses. And don’t give me the Tank Dell was small too, Worthy is a different player, he doesn’t win the way Dell does.
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jonathan Brooks RB Texas
This would be the latest the first RB comes off the board ever, I think. In 2014, Bishop Sankey went 54th. Brooks is the best RB in this class but he’s coming off an ACL tear. This is a gamble for the Bucs but if they want an upgrade as a ball carrier over Rachaad White, this is their best bet. White is a great pass catcher, he’s not a great runner. Brooks is.
58. Green Bay Packers: Junior Colson LB Michigan
The Packers’ defense is making some schematic changes with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry and that means they need different LBs. Quay Walker is good to go but they may move on from De’Vondre Campbell and Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, and Preston Smith will be playing mostly DE. Colson gives Walker a running mate and gives the Packers defense some options at LB.
59. Houston Texans: Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M
Cooper is a fast, athletic LB who needs some coaching to break him of his bad habit of guessing wrong and taking bad steps. DeMeco Ryans was a stud at LB and he will be an excellent coach for Cooper. With Blake Cashman and Denzel Perryman free agents, the Texans need some bodies at LB.
60. Buffalo Bills: Cole Bishop S Utah
The Bills cut Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is a free agent leaving Taylor Rapp all alone at safety. There are a lot of free agent safeties but the Bills don’t have much money to spend. Bishop is smart, athletic, and comes from Utah where they know how to play defense.
61. Detroit Lions: Jalen McMillan WR Washington
The Lions still have hope Jameson Williams will become the deep threat they drafted him to be. With Amon-Ra St. Brown being the underneath slot guy, they need an upgrade in the intermediate area over Josh Reynolds, hello Jalen McMillen. McMillan did a lot of his damage from the slot at Washington but that’s because he played with Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. He can be more than a slot guy and he would work well with St. Brown.
62. Baltimore Ravens: Kira Amegadjie OT Yale
The Ravens have some interior offensive line needs but Ronnie Stanley isn’t the picture of health at LT and Morgan Moses isn’t getting younger at RT. Amegadjie is light on his feet, has incredibly long arms, and would be a great developmental OT. The Ravens see value here.
63. San Francisco 49ers: Malachi Corley WR Western Kentucky
The 49ers can’t afford to pay everyone and Brandon Aiyuk is in the last year of his contract. Corley is known as the YAC (yards after catch) king and he goes to the team that loves YAC kings and is full of them. Perfect match for the system.
64. Kansas City Chiefs: Andru Phillips CB Kentucky
Phillips can play in a variety of systems and he’s a physical CB so the Chiefs can work with that. If they do trade Snead, they will need someone to add depth behind Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
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