This mock draft is going to be a little different, on purpose. I’m not going with the exact current draft order because there are several weeks left in the season and it’s going to change. This draft is more about general position and what teams could do, should do, will do, and what some teams just won’t be able to stop themselves from doing.
A couple of notes about this draft; overall it’s not all that strong. Somewhere around pick 25 it starts to tail off. The QB class is top heavy with a drop off after the third guy (Jayden Daniels). The OT and WR groups are really strong and some teams are really going to get some steals. I’m probably not as high on the CB class as others, yet for some reason I found myself putting quite a few in round one, so many teams need help there. RB, LB, and safety might have some nice players in rounds 2-5 but I don’t think any of them are sniffing the first round. Also, interior offensive line is pretty weak unless you count some of the potential OTs moving inside, I did that in this mock draft.
I’m mocking the mock draft model for now, everyone else is taking it too seriously and that’s no fun. So, let’s have some fun with it.
1. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE from Chicago): Caleb Williams QB USC
The Bears are going to get the first pick from Carolina because the Panthers are a dumpster fire and they have almost locked in the first pick. I contend Ryan Poles wants to be good sooner rather than later and with Matt Eberflus getting the Bears’ defense playing better and Justin Fields looking good, Poles trades this pick for a huge ransom. He needs to find an owner dumb enough to offer a huge sum and look right there, it’s Mark Davis with his hand in the air. The Raiders need a splash to be relevant in Las Vegas and unless he can hire Bill Belichick, Lincoln Riley, or Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, this is the move. The Raiders should be picking somewhere around eight in this draft so let’s say three first rounders and two second rounders and the Bears can’t say no. Williams has star potential and if he goes to the Raiders, he’s probably going to be a bust. It’s not his fault, it’s a Raiders thing. I like Williams, I don’t love him like others do. I see the bust potential if he’s not in a great situation and the Raiders have a long road to being even a good situation.
2. New England Patriots: Drake Maye QB North Carolina
Bill Belichick says goodbye to New England and Robert Kraft starts over with a new head coach (Ben Johnson, Bobby Slowik, it’s not going to be Mike Vrabel). The new coach keeps Jerod Mayo and makes him the defensive coordinator because the defense is fine. He drafts a new franchise QB in Drake Maye, the tall, athletic, rocket-armed star from North Carolina. Then the team cuts every WR not named Pop Douglas and signs Tee Higgins to a massive contract. When your team sucks at drafting WRs (I blame Belichick but let’s not take a chance) you just have to sign the best one on the market. I’ll fix the LT spot a little later. Sorry, that was a lot. Maye is this year’s CJ Stroud. Teams are going to start trying to talk themselves out of him, they are going to nitpick every little thing. Stop overthinking it, this guy is a star. Get him a real offensive mind to put it all together, and replace the “weapons” (I use that term loosely in reference to the Patriots skill guys), and Maye is off and running.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio St.
An interesting comparison for Marvin Harrison Jr is Larry Fitzgerald. It’s a worthy comparison but Harrison might have a higher ceiling. Fitzgerald is one of the greats, Harrison has that level in him. He has all the size you need but he also has all the skills and refinement of being Marvin Harrison’s kid. The Cardinals have a small WR group and by that, I mean they’re all short, Harrison is legitimately 6’3. I think the Cardinals want to see what they really have in Kyler Murray in their new offense and giving him Harrison would give him a better chance to succeed. He is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson and surprisingly, the Cardinals offense under first-year coordinator Drew Petzing is actually pretty solid.
4. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels QB LSU
Daniels just won the Heisman Trophy but he hasn’t really been talked about as a top-level prospect until recently. He has all the skills you like and the only red flag is the fact that he’s a little skinny, so was Lamar Jackson. A better comparison might be Deshaun Watson without the off-field issues. Anthony Richardson made a meteoric rise last year before the draft and went fourth overall, Daniels isn’t quite the freak athletically that Richardson was but he was a far more productive college player. Sam Howell did a solid job in Washington but this team will likely have a new coach (hopefully just a promoted Eric Bieniemy) and the new owner might like a new face of the franchise. Daniels could really unlock the skill position talent in Washington (imagine Terry McLaurin with a good QB). Daniels is going to go in the top five, book it. With hall that said, they should draft Olu Fashanu, the OT from Penn St. Their line was atrocious and any new QB is going to get killed. Howell might have actually been pretty good if he hadn’t been sacked every third play.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers WR LSU
This seems a bit high for the second WR to come off the board but Nabers is a stud. The Chargers finally fired Brandon Staley and will look different next year for sure. They have a bloated cap (probably the reason Tom Telesco was fired as GM too), and some tough decision will need to be made. Both edge rushers, Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, have bloated cap figures as do WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Mack and Allen have both shown that even at an advancing age, they are still good while Bosa and Williams have proven they are simply injury prone. Nabers would give the Chargers a perfect complement to Allen, he has electric downfield skills and they sorely need that. Whoever is coaching the Chargers offense next season has to figure out how to unleash Justin Herbert’s arm. It’s absolutely insane how much he dumps the ball off and they never go downfield, Nabers has that skill. They are so underutilizing Herbert it’s hard to watch.
6. New York Jets: Olu Fashanu OT Penn St.
I know, the Bears are right around this pick but I think they end up with more wins so they fall a bit, the Jets are still terrible and they aren’t winning much to finish the year. I would hate to see this happen as Fashanu is a fantastic OT and a day one NFL starter at LT. That’s exactly what the Jets need to protect Aaron Rodgers better next season. Fashanu is everything you look for in a LT and he makes this offense better. He has size, strength, length, agility, and toughness, he’s a future All-Pro. My only issue with Fashanu going at six is that it seems a little too low but if Daniels makes the rise I think he will, someone has to fall. If the Patriots fall out of the top three, and I pray Belichick doesn’t screw that up, this is the guy I want, he’s awesome.
7. Chicago Bears (TRADE from Las Vegas): Keon Coleman WR Florida St.
This isn’t the Bears pick, it’s the pick they get from Vegas for the first pick overall (well, one of them anyway). The Bears stick with Fields and after watching DJ Moore have a positive effect on him, they look to double down. Coleman is a freak at 6’3 215 lbs. and is the perfect complement to Moore. He’s the big, contested catch guy who will make Fields that much more effective and he can be dangerous in the red zone. The Bears have needs on defense and even on the offensive line but this draft has some serious WR talent and they shouldn’t pass it up, those other spots can be addressed later.
8. New York Giants: Brock Bowers TE Georgia
Bowers is a TE in name only, he’s just a massively talented playmaker in the passing game and he’s everything the Giants thought they were getting when they traded for Darren Waller. Unfortunately for them, Waller just doesn’t play often enough. They should probably look at a big WR instead of going with a roster full of slot guys again but unless they love Rome Odunze (I wouldn’t blame them, I think he’s awesome), they should just take Bowers. They could draft a new RT to replace Evan Neal so they can try him inside at OG but the best RT on the board is probably JC Latham and that’s another Alabama OT like Neal, probably a pass for the Giants. Bowers shouldn’t fall this far anyway so they give Tommy DeVitto a playmaker with some size to work with (sorry, I couldn’t resist, they are totally going with DeVitto next year at QB).
9. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt OT Notre Dame
The Titans spent money on Andre Dillard last year to be their LT, and he’s been the worst starting LT in football (the Titans are the only people on the planet who didn’t see that coming). They have replaced him with rookie sixth-round pick Jaelyn Duncan, and while I liked Duncan last year in the draft, he’s no Joe Alt. Alt has leveled-up this year at Notre Dame and if he’s still on the board here for Tennessee, they should sprint to the podium to turn in his name. They’ve been terrible at LT since Taylor Lewan’s knee injury that essentially ended his career. They need a cornerstone up front, Alt might not be flashy, but he’s going to be a starting LT in the NFL for a decade.
10. Seattle Seahawks: JJ McCarthy QB Michigan
I said this was going to be fun. The Seahawks haven’t been much fun to watch this year as Geno Smith hasn’t been great and now, he’s been hurt and they have Drew Lock at QB. They hilariously beat the Eagles last week but I’m not buying them as being able to continue that play. Smith got an extension last year but it wasn’t a long one and this team needs to think long-term about it’s QB position. McCarthy isn’t a finished product but he’s a talented player and he could come in and give them a viable option to replace or backup Geno. If Geno plays better next year, McCarthy can sit and learn, if Geno is bad, McCarthy takes over. Maybe the Seahawks won’t spend a first round pick on a QB, but they should.
11. Chicago Bears: Dallas Turner DE Alabama
This is about where I expect the Bears’ pick to actually end up. They got their DJ Moore complement with the first pick and now they get a guy to help Montez Sweat get pressure on opposing QBs. Turner doesn’t have the profile his former Alabama teammate Will Anderson had last year but he’s a productive pass rusher who would benefit playing opposite Sweat. The Bears defense got a lot better once Sweat arrived and having two guys really bringing the heat would help the secondary more than anything else they can do here. There are no safeties to take and I think improving the pass rush is the smarter play than over drafting a CB.
12. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Nate Wiggins CB Clemson
Houston has been a great story so far this year but they lost Tank Dell and now CJ Stroud is out with a concussion. This team could struggle to end the year if CJ Stroud doesn’t get better fast. Their pick goes to Arizona after last year’s trade between the teams. Any defender will do on the defensive line or the secondary. Wiggins will be the top CB on some teams’ boards and probably third or forth on others. There is no consensus top CB pick. Wiggins is long, lean, and feisty. He has great cover skills but he’s allergic to tackling. He’s a boom or bust CB pick and that feels like an Arizona kind of pick.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jared Verse Edge Rusher Florida St.
The Bucs could win the NFC South or they could fade late and end up pick around this spot, I’ll bet on Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield to get them here. They should be making a play for a new QB but for some reason I feel like they will go with Baker again, some teams like being just below average. The defense is generally their strength but they need some new blood at LB. ILBs aren’t worth the 13th pick but they could also use some pass rush help. Shaq Barrett isn’t getting any younger, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka isn’t great, and Verse could be a OLB in their system. Verse is a talented pass rusher who isn’t the biggest guy but he’s relentless and can get to the QB.
14. Atlanta Falcons: Laiatu Latu DE UCLA
The Falcons need a QB but they are playing themselves out of a first round QB. I suppose it’s possible they reach for Bo Nix but I’m more inclined to think they look for a veteran or try for a trade. One other place they need help is the defensive line. Calais Campbell will be a free agent and he’s already 37, David Onyemata is 31, and Grady Jarrett is 30 and recovering from a torn ACL. Latu is a versatile player with good size and will be a good edge player in whatever system he ends up in. Getting younger and more talented in the defensive front seven is never a bad idea.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: JC Latham OT Alabama
The Steelers are another team that needs a new QB but are not in a position to get one here in the draft. They will likely be looking for a veteran stop-gap QB, think Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill. One thing they have to fix for good no matter who the QB is, the offensive line. They drafted Broderick Jones in round one last year and then decided Dan Moore Jr was the better option at LT (they are wrong), Jones is playing RT for them now. They have to just put Jones at LT and let him just take his lumps while he learns. The best thing to help that is draft Latham, he’s a day one starting RT. He’s beast and he’ll stabilize the right side. Latham should go higher than this but this is the fun mock draft so he’s still here.
16. Denver Broncos: Cooper DeJean CB Iowa
The Broncos secondary needs plenty of help. It has been a wasteland opposite Patrick Surtain II at CB, S Kareem Jackson has been suspended twice because he doesn’t know how to legally hit people anymore (he’s also in his late 30s). K’Waun Williams and Riley Moss have been injured and Fabian Moreau is just a guy. DeJean is an athletic freak who can play outside CB, he can play in the slot, he could line up at safety if Caden Sterns never gets healthy, and he can play dime LB if needed. His versatility allows others to find their best spot, perhaps he takes the outside CB spot and the Broncos move Moss to safety to replace Jackson. The Broncos clearly scouted the Iowa defensive backs last year considering they drafted Moss in round three. DeJean is a whole other level. He would pair with Surtain to make a dynamic CB duo and those teams that have been avoiding Surtain all year, will have to rethink their strategy.
17. Minnesota Vikings: Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo
With the exception of Cooper DeJean, I don’t particularly love any of the top-rated CBs in this draft. Wiggins doesn’t tackle, Kool-Aid McKinstry has had some rough games this year, and Terrion Arnold is fine but I haven’t seen him do it enough. Mitchell is the small-school guy who could come flying up the draft boards as teams realize this CB class isn’t great. This guy has all the physical tools you look for, he has great instincts for the position, and most of his weaknesses are just issues with his technique, something you can coach him on. The Vikings secondary is pretty rough and they need CB help. This is a projection but I’m comfortable with it, he’s a good player. I do wonder if the Vikings are willing to go into next season with Jaren Hall at QB1 or whether they want to get a veteran or if they pull the trigger on a guy like Bo Nix.
18. Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold CB Alabama
While I’m not a big fan of the CBs in this draft it’s not a particularly strong draft overall and teams will look to fill important positions, the Colts need CB help desperately. Arnold is playing better this season than his more ballyhooed teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry but it could be either one here. The Colts took JuJu Brents in round two last season and he’s starting at one spot but they don’t have great option outside opposite him. They also need depth because their nickel corner Kenny Moore will be a free agent. Arnold seems like a guy getting better the more he plays, that’s a good sign.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
Last year there were four straight WRs taken in the early 20’s, this year we get four straight CBs taken just before the 20’s. McKinstry hasn’t had a banner year but he still has tons of potential and the Rams secondary needs help. They really could use anyone on the defensive side of the ball and I like McKinstry better than the pass rushers and defensive tackles here. There are no safeties worth taking in the round one. The Rams’ defense isn’t terrible considering it’s Aaron Donald and ten guys no one has ever heard of. At least McKinstry has a memorable name.
20. New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga OL Oregon St.
I seriously considered putting Bo Nix here, that would be fun. However, this team has so much money tied up in Derek Carr I’m not sure they will spend a first-round pick on a QB and Nix isn’t quite good enough to reach this far. The Saints have both Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz as pending free agents, that’s both of their normal starting guards. Fuaga played RT at Oregon St but most teams project him inside. He would also be a bit of a hedge as a LT fill-in for Trevor Penning who hasn’t been working out at that position. The Saints like to invest in their lines and Fuaga seems like a Saints pick.
21. Green Bay Packers: Amarius Mims OT Georgia
The Packers offense is full of young guys and here they get even younger. David Bakhtiari can’t stay healthy and my guess is he’s a New York Jet next year. Rasheed Walker has been holding down the LT spot but he’s not great. Yosh Nijman and Jon Runyan are free agents after the season so the team needs to replenish the offensive line. Mims is all potential and not much production but his potential is incredible. I’m including Mims in this draft but I’m not completely convinced he comes out because he’s been hurt a lot, this is a stacked OT draft, and if he returns to Georgia and has a great year, he’s a top five pick next year. If he’s here, the Packers will bet on his potential.
22. Cincinnati Bengals: Rome Odunze WR Washington
The Bengals are trying to hold on with Jake Browning filling in for Joe Burrow at QB and I think they make the playoffs. They have some holes on defense but this off season both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are free agents and with Burrow’s major contract and Ja’Marr Chase’s contract coming up, they can’t afford everyone. Higgins is going to get major money so they need to replace him outside opposite Chase. Odunze is a big, physical WR in the mold of Higgins and while he won’t be as refined as Higgins is at this point, his potential is enormous. Odunze is my favorite WR in this draft not named Marvin Harrison Jr., I always have one. He’s going to be a beast; his catch radius has no bounds. Joe Burrow will love him and the rest of the AFC will hate facing him. You can’t double cover Chase and Odunze, good luck with that.
23. Buffalo Bills: Chop Robinson DE Penn St.
The Bills need CB help but I don’t like any more CBs for this first round, they also will need some edge help. Von Miller will be 35, Leonard Floyd will be 32, and AJ Epenesa will be a free agent, so they need someone to play on the end. Robinson is a little undersized but he knows how to get to the QB. They have Greg Rousseau and he’s a big end so they can use Robinson on the other side. If the Bills actually make the playoffs, they might be picking later than this, they will be a tough out.
24. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Jer’Zhan Newton DT Illinois
The Texans traded their first-round pick to Arizona last year in the draft to move up and take Will Anderson, that’s worked out very well. They still have this first-round pick from Cleveland from the Deshaun Watson trade, sorry Cleveland. The Texans are doing far better than anyone thought and have some really good young players to build around. Their biggest needs are not positions you typically target in the round one, interior offensive line and linebackers. So, they go for the best DT in the draft. Newton is a problem on the interior, he’s undersized but incredibly explosive, and he’s a handful. They’ve had great success with Sheldon Rankins filling that role this year and while he’s a free agent they should be able to re-sign, why not double up there. DeMeco Ryans knows that having a deep, talented defensive line is a great way to build a defense.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio St.
This is another team that has needs at positions they probably won’t address in round one; interior offensive line and safety. WR doesn’t seem like a need but it is. Calvin Ridley isn’t signed beyond the season and even if they do extend him (I expect they will) he’s been inconsistent. Zay Jones has also been inconsistent and his contract can be voided. Christian Kirk in on IR. Trevor Lawrence needs weapons and Egbuka is a serious talent. He was rightfully overshadowed by Marvin Harrison Jr. at Ohio St. but he’s a really good player and he could replace Zay Jones. He has the ability to become the Jags top WR if Ridley struggles.
26. Detroit Lions: Denzel Burke CB Ohio St.
The Lions tried to address their secondary in free agency last year but Emmanuel Moseley and CJ Gardner Johnson have both been injured and are on IR. Cam Sutton has been okay but Jerry Jacobs has struggled. They need CB help and Burke is a solid player. He’s not flashy but that fits Dan Campbell’s team just fine. They need competent players for their secondary and Burke shouldn’t be their only pick back there. If they don’t go CB, they have to go defensive line, either way, they have to get better on defense.
27. Kansas City Chiefs: Troy Franklin WR Oregon
The Chiefs have to stop thinking Patrick Mahomes can make just any WR look good, he does need them to have some level of talent and it’s lacking right now. They need someone who can take the top off the defense and catch the ball, that’s not Marquez Valdes-Scantling, it is Troy Franklin. Franklin is a big play waiting to happen and he will take a lot of pressure off of Travis Kelce and give Mahomes a true talent at WR. He doesn’t play the game like Tyreek Hill but with Mahomes as his QB he might have a similar impact on this offense.
28. New England Patriots (TRADE from Philadelphia): Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma
The Eagles defense needs help in the secondary but the Eagles don’t like the guys left here so they trade down as New England comes back up into round one to get the LT they need. The Patriots need to cut bait on Trent Brown and move on. Guyton is a young, athletic tackle who can grow with some of the other young guys on the offensive line and with new QB Drake Maye. He’s not a finished product but he’s worth the move up to add a LT of the future.
29. Miami Dolphins: Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
The Dolphins offense is a machine that just churns out big play after big play but they aren’t perfect up front. Terron Armstead has had a long and distinguished career but he’s going to be 33 years old and simply doesn’t stay healthy often enough. Morgan is one of several OTs who could go at the end of round one because he’s good enough to start early in his career. There are some concerns about him holding up on the edge but the Dolphins offense moves so quickly, I think they would mitigate that concern.
30. Dallas Cowboys: JT Tuimoloau DE Ohio St.
The Cowboys’ defense has been very good under Dan Quinn but they could get thin fast at DE. DeMarcus Lawrence is 32 and isn’t nearly as effective as he once was. Dorace Armstrong is going to be a free agent and they probably don’t want to spend a lot to keep him. Dante Fowler Jr is also aging. Tuimoloau isn’t a bendy speed rusher off the edge but they have Micah Parsons for that. What he does really well is hold the end, plays smart, and never quits. He’s not going to make the splash plays but he’s going to do all the things that allow Parsons to make the splash plays.
31. Baltimore Ravens: Troy Fautanu OL Washington
The Ravens have an aging Kevin Zeitler at RG who will be a free agent after the season and their LG spot hasn’t been great this season with no clear plan moving forward there. Fautanu played LT at Washington but most teams project him inside at guard. He could take either spot and he’s also a solid choice as a backup option to Ronnie Stanley at LT, he’s not getting any younger and has had health issues.
32. San Francisco 49ers: Graham Barton OL Duke
Barton is another guy who plays LT in college but will move inside in the pros. The real question is does he move to guard or center. He might be the best center prospect in this draft, he played the position early in his career and he has the athleticism to excel there. The 49ers seem satisfied with Jake Brendel at center but their guard play hasn’t been good. Barton could replace either Aaron Banks or Spencer Burford. Barton may also be a sneaky hedge against Colton McKivitz at RT. He brings so much talent and versatility it’s almost unfair a team as good as the 49ers might get him.
- I tried desperately to find a place for Bo Nix in this mock draft. I don’t actually think Nix is a first-round QB talent but he’s good and he might get pushed up because he’s a QB. There are teams that could really use him and I wouldn’t be surprised if some team trades into the end of the round one to pick him. I would be very surprised if Michael Penix Jr goes anywhere in round one or round two for that matter. He was a highly productive QB at Washington but Kalen DeBoer’s offense and the ridiculous WR group they had made him look better than he is. The two other WRs from Washington (other than Rome Odunze) Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk are guys who could sneak into round one and should for sure go in round two.
The Hott Read 