The long, slow decline of a legend is happening right in front of us. Kirk Ferentz has been the coach at Iowa since 1999, that’s a hell of a run, but we are watching the end in slow motion. I hate to say it but coaches who stay at one place for this long, rarely go out with a roar, it’s almost always a whimper. There’s usually a steady, unmistakable decline that people don’t want to acknowledge. It happened to Bobby Bowden, Bill Snyder, Frank Beamer and even Kirk’s predecessor at Iowa, Hayden Fry. Sure, there’s sometimes a momentary bump like Bobby Bowden winning 10 games in 2003, Bill Snyder winning 9 games in 2016, or Fry winning 9 games in 1996, but everyone knows it’s not sustainable (sorry Frank Beamer, you had four non-descript seasons to end your legendary career at Virginia Tech).
That decline in record hasn’t happened to Kirk yet but it’s coming. He’s been propped up the past several years by great defense, great special teams, and a really pathetic Big Ten West division. That division goes away next season and Iowa is staring into the abyss. An offense that is at least a decade past its expiration date (and that’s being generous), an offensive coordinator who is in over his head, a head coach who refuses to fire anyone who might be failing at their job, and the prospect of having to try to recruit offensive players into literally the worst offense in college football. The Big Ten will have 18 teams next year and they won’t finish in the top half if they continue with this offense.
Kirk’s stubbornness has reached new heights, not only is he sticking with an offense that doesn’t work but he’s sticking with an ineffective QB who has been at Iowa all of 10 months and was only supposed to be depth at the position. This isn’t about throwing Deacon Hill under the bus, he’s in a tough situation, but let’s be real. Hill was supposed to transfer to Fordham when he left Wisconsin but Iowa was in desperate need of healthy QBs last spring when Cade McNamara wasn’t ready to practice and Iowa had lost two QBs to the transfer portal. Jon Budmayr got the Hawkeyes McNamara and then they went to him again and he had a connection to Hill so Iowa gave him a shot. Let me say this again, he was only supposed to be depth at the position, not a starter. Somehow, he became the backup and now Ferentz won’t even give Joe Labas a chance. I’m not sure how Hill became the unquestioned starter because it is absolutely inexplicable. Don’t get me wrong, Labas isn’t fixing this offense (Tom Brady couldn’t fix this disaster), but the kid deserves a chance to play. Hill is completing less than 38% of his passes so far and I just can’t believe Labas could be worse. Sorry, I got off my point, back to Ferentz.
Kirk has abdicated his responsibility when it comes to Iowa’s offense. He’s given up even trying to be good and last week against Minnesota it finally caught up to him. He can piss and moan all he wants about the officials calling back Cooper DeJean’s punt return but that isn’t why Iowa lost Floyd of Rosedale. He can even lament the fact that his QB Cade McNamara got hurt and lost his two best offensive pass catchers in TEs Luke Lachey and Erick All. Those are excuses, his offense was terrible when he had those guys. Kirk refuses to blame Brian, and admittedly, it’s not all Brian’s fault, it is however Kirk’s fault, all of it. He’s the head coach, he’s the guy who won’t make the changes necessary to fix the problem, hell, he won’t even admit the real problem. The offense is outdated, it’s pedestrian, it lacks all the hallmarks of a modern college offense. Football has changed so much in just the past five years and Kirk Ferentz refuses to acknowledge it. He can say he wants to play “complementary” football but it’s just an excuse for ineptitude at this point.
Next year there is no Big Ten West to take advantage of and to make the Big Ten title game you have to finish first or second. There is no chance with this offense Iowa finishes anywhere near that, a top half finish will be a struggle. Kirk has a few paths forward but I have very little faith he will pick the right one. The first one is to be remain obstinate, insist Brian gets a new contract and returns as offensive coordinator. This seems unlikely because at this point even Kirk has to realize Brian needs to move on. He may not like it but it’s what is best for Iowa and it’s what is best for Brian. He needs to move on if he’s going to salvage his coaching career. I have a hard time seeing Brian even agreeing to return, the environment at Iowa is too toxic for him now. I have an even harder time seeing AD Beth Goetz going along with this, her first major act would alienate the football fanbase, not a great way to start.
The second path is probably the one Kirk is most likely to feel comfortable with but Goetz shouldn’t agree to it. Brian’s contract terminates when the Hawkeyes don’t reach the 25 points/game threshold and he moves on to a position coaching job somewhere else. Then Kirk promotes analyst/coaching assistant (whatever his title is) Jon Budmayr to offensive coordinator and Iowa continues running Kirk’s offense with a new play caller. This is the half measure that simply shouldn’t happen. This is where Goetz must insist on change, that’s something that Kirk seems loathe to try. If she agrees to let him hire Budmayr as the offensive coordinator it’s the final nail in Kirk’s career at Iowa. Nothing will change, Iowa will finish tenth in the Big Ten at best next season and the reality will be that Kirk’s legacy at Iowa will end in a whimper. Unfortunately, this is probably the most realistic path forward where Goetz gets “change” but doesn’t alienate Kirk by requiring real change.
The last few paths start with Goetz absolutely insisting on real change and that goes one of two ways. The least likely is she tells Kirk he has to hire an outside OC and he refuses and she has to fire him, that’s not happening, she’s not firing him. The other way would be Kirk agrees to retire so everyone saves face. This is possible but I would put it at highly unlikely, I don’t think Kirk wants to retire and I don’t think he would like feeling as though he’s being forced into it, although if he insists on the Budmayr route that’s the way it ends eventually anyway. I don’t think he wants to go out this way so I’m hoping for the last path forward which would be for Ferentz to accept the reality of the situation and look outside his family and the Hawkeye family for some new blood. If he wants some help with some names, I have a list (that’s not a joke, I have a list on my phone). This is the only chance Kirk has to salvage his legacy and end his career as a relevant coach.
If Iowa falls into the middle of the Big Ten for the next three or four years, Kirk will just be a guy who coached a long time, was a good guy, had a solid career but that’s it. He never won an outright Big Ten title, never won the Big Ten Championship game, and the question for me will always be, what could have been? The past few years Iowa has had an elite defense and elite special teams and the team won a lot of games. The problem is, if the offense has been good, they could have won more. They could have made a college football playoff, they could have competed on a national level, but Ferentz wouldn’t make it happen, he wouldn’t change with the times. Kirk has a chance to be the coach who saw the light, made the changes necessary and went out stronger at the end of his career. The defense under Phil Parker can compete for a Big Ten title next year. The special teams under Levar Woods can compete for a Big Ten title next year. If Iowa has a real offense next season, the Big Ten title isn’t out of the question and making the 12-team playoff is certainly on the table. With a new offensive coordinator, a new offensive scheme, and the transfer portal, anything is possible. The question is, will Kirk Ferentz let it happen? Will he make it happen? Or, will he simply go out like so many other coaches who stayed too long and wouldn’t get out of their own way? For now, it’s still Kirk’s choice but we aren’t far from it being Beth Goetz’s choice.
Now give me a minute to change the name Kirk Ferentz to Bill Belichick and Beth Goetz to Robert Kraft and I’ll repost this as my thoughts on the Patriots. (The only difference is Steven Belichick isn’t part of the problem in New England, his defense is fine).
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