2023 NFL Preseason Picks and Hott Reads

I wrote this before the Chiefs/Lions game on Thursday but the outcome of that game chancged nothing I had previously thought. If anything it reinforced my thoughts on the Chiefs season probably coming up short and the Lions are good but they aren’t great yet.

MVP

Top Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Jalen Hurts, QB Josh Allen, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Justin Jefferson, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Joe Burrow, QB Justin Herbert

Sleeper: QB Trevor Lawrence

            Mahomes won the award last season for a reason, he was awesome even after they traded away Tyreek Hill.  Now he starts the season with Travis Kelce banged up, no JuJu Smith-Schuster and no Mecole Hardman.  His top WRs are Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Richie James, he’s really going to have to earn it this year.  Hurts is the engine that runs arguably the best offense in the league and if Philly keeps rolling, he could win this thing.  It’s a QB award mostly so the usual suspects are here; Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert, no surprise.  McCaffrey is the best RB in football and he could go for 1500 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving in Kyle Shanahan’s offense (maybe a slight exaggeration but just a slight one).  Jefferson is the best WR but WRs don’t win this award.  Trevor Lawrence made a leap last year with Doug Pederson being an actual NFL level coach. This year Lawrence gets Calvin Ridley, a legitimate WR1.  Lawrence is going for 5000 yards and 45 TDs. 

My Pick: Trevor Lawrence. 

Yep, I’m going with my dark horse.  Lawrence is the real deal and he shows it this year and carries the Jaguars to a division title.  I think he barely edges out Burrow, who I expect to have a great year too, the difference is people expect Burrow to be great.    

Defensive Player of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Nick Bosa, DE/LB Micah Parsons, DE Myles Garrett, LB TJ Watt, CB Sauce Gardner

Sleepers: LB Hassan Reddick, CB Patrick Surtain II

            Bosa is the reigning defensive player of the year and while he could certainly repeat, missing all of training camp in a contract holdout probably means he starts slow.  Parsons is supposed to be moving to DE full-time but I think he’ll still play a little LB in certain situation.  Garrett is a sack machine and if the Browns are ever actually good, someone might give him some credit.  Watt is coming off an injury but he should be back and ready to dominate.  Gardner is arguably the best CB in football, teams avoid throwing his way which makes it hard for him to get the stats needed to get votes.  That’s also the plight of Surtain, he’s the guy making it an argument for best CB in football.  Reddick has found his place in Philly and he’s a top sack guy and plays LB. 

My Pick:  Micah Parsons

I picked the guy who was the dark horse for MVP but I’m picking the odds-on favorite for defensive player of the year.  No need to get cute, Parsons is going to rack up sack numbers all season long on one of the best defenses in football. He’s an emerging player and this won’t be his last defensive player of the year award.  Bosa will win more too but this one goes to Parsons. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: RB Bijan Robinson, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jordan Addison, WR Zay Flowers, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, QB Bryce Young, QB CJ Stroud, QB Anthony Richardson

Sleepers: WR Jalin Hyatt, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Sam LaPorta

Deep Sleeper: WR Cedric Tillman

            I listed a ton of rookies and almost none of them have a chance to win this award, it’s Bijan Robinson’s award to lose.  Gibbs has an outside shot because he’s a dynamic playmaker on a good offense but he won’t get the volume of Robinson.  Addison should be the best rookie receiver stats wise but his numbers will be dwarfed by Justin Jefferson.  Flowers and Njigba have too many veterans to overcome.  The QBs aren’t in great situations to win the award.  Hyatt could emerge as the deep threat in New York and his highlight reel will be fun.  Kincade and LaPorta have a chance to be good but rookie TEs are almost never that impressive.  I like Tillman if he can get on the field, he’s a playmaker. 

My Pick: Bijan Robinson

            No chance am I betting against a sure thing.  Robinson is a generational RB playing for a coach who wants to run the ball.  If McCaffrey isn’t the guy to go for 1500 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards, it’s Robinson. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top Contenders: DE Will Anderson, DT Jalen Carter, CB Christian Gonzalez, CB Devon Witherspoon, LB Jack Campbell

Sleepers: CB Emmanuel Forbes, DE Will McDonald IV, S Brian Branch

Deep Sleeper: LB Marte Mapu

            Anderson is the favorite for the award but I’m afraid he might not quite get the sack numbers necessary to get the award.  Carter is going to be in a rotation so his numbers aren’t going to be great and he’s a DT so he’s probably not going to stand out anyway.  I would love to see Gonzalez with about eight picks this year but I think teams will learn to avoid him.  Witherspoon might have a better chance of some stats with team likely avoiding Riq Woolen on the other side of him.  Campbell is going to pile up the tackle numbers but LBs rarely win individual awards, just ask Fred Warner how may defensive player of the year awards he has.  Forbes is a walking pick-six and he might have the flashy plays to get noticed.  McDonald is a pass rush specialist to start so his sack numbers might be good but will he play enough? That’s the question.  Branch is the heady safety who could shine in the slot.  Mapu is a Belichick special and he’s going to be all over the defense and the Patriots defense should be elite, I’m just not sure he’ll stand out enough this year.   

My pick:  Christian Gonzalez

            I had a really hard time picking this award (no really, I really didn’t think I would pick Gonzalez at all).  I love Gonzalez and it’s still unbelievable he fell to the Patriots in the middle of round one. There’s a chance teams figure out not to throw his way but he is a rookie so perhaps it takes them all season to figure that out. Also, the Patriots defense is going to be great so he might garner some recognition for being a big part of it.   

Postseason Picks

Super Bowl

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati

Super Bowl Champion

Cincinnati Bengals (I never thought I’d live long enough to see this happen)

Playoff Hott Reads

• It’s was equally hard narrowing down the three AFC wildcard teams as it was to come up with a third NFC wildcard team.  The AFC is stacked and Steelers, Browns or Chargers could easily make the playoffs (even the Titans wouldn’t totally surprise me).  If Tua gets hurt the Dolphins aren’t coming close to the playoffs.  I have zero faith the Packers are making the playoffs but it’s them, the Giants, the Vikings or maybe Atlanta (I’m not a fan of the Vikings or Falcons defenses).  I think the Giants and Packers tie record wise and it comes down to their head-to-head game in December, I’m going Packers.     
• I almost flipped a coin to figure out the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl team from there.  It’s tough to pick against Kansas City but they had a lot of luck with few injuries and great rookie play to get them there last year.  Travis Kelce is banged up to start the year and Chris Jones is still holding out, tough to think everything goes their way this year.
• I like the Bengals.  I love Joe Burrow.  That offense is going to be elite.  Ja’Marr Chase is going to push Justin Jefferson for the title of best WR in football.  They are going to be battle tested going through the AFC North so they will be ready for the playoffs. 
• The NFC is a four-team race to me; Eagles, 49ers, Lions, and Cowboys.  I’m picking San Francisco over the Eagles because they almost beat the Eagles last year in the playoffs without a functioning QB. As long as Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold can play, they should be fine. 

Regular Season Hott Reads

• So that was all a bunch of the good stuff for the year, what about the bad?  I think it’s quite clear Arizona is going to be the worst team, even if Kyler gets back.  I mentioned they should trade guys like DJ Humphries and Budda Baker.  Humphries to the Jets (please no) or the Patriots (hell yes) seems possible.  Baker should go to a team trying to win, might I suggest Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or Jacksonville. 
• I think Kyler comes back at some point in October but that doesn’t help and he’s playing for Atlanta, Minnesota, or my favorite choice, Las Vegas, next year. 
• Speaking of Las Vegas lets take a look at who the first coach fired might be…sorry did I give it away?  I actually think it could be a two-man race between Josh McDaniels and Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay.  Sorry but these two just seem like dead men walking.  While one is an offensive guy and one is a defensive guy, they do have some things in common.  Both are second-time head coaches and both are probably better suited to be coordinators on their respective sides of the ball.  I’ll choose McDaniels to go first because the Raiders have several potential interim head coaches already on staff; DC Patrick Graham, WR coach Edgar Bennett, Senior Defensive Assistant Rob Ryan, Passing game coordinator Scott Turner or OC Mick Lombardi.  The Bucs staff has less obvious candidates, maybe special team’s coordinator Keith Armstrong, he’s been in the league forever. OC Dave Canales is in his first year as a coordinator and the two co-DCs don’t have a ton of experience either.
• There are other coaches who should be worried about their jobs.  Ron Rivera is a well-respected man in the NFL but Washington is looking for a fresh start and it’s going to take a heck of year to save him.  Kevin Stefanski needs to get the Browns very close to the playoffs at the very least or he’s getting replaced.  If Robert Saleh doesn’t win with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, they go looking for a new leader.  If Arthur Smith’s offense doesn’t take off in Atlanta or Dennis Allen doesn’t compete in New Orleans, those two could be looking for work.  Brandon Staley needs to take the Chargers to the playoffs or his ready-made replacement, Kellen Moore, will have his job.  Finally, if Matthew Stafford doesn’t rebound and decides to call it a career and the Rams don’t get a pick high enough to take either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, Sean McVay will be calling Thursday Night Football on Amazon in 2024, he won’t get fired, he’ll walk away for a few years. 
• We could be in for some impressive offensive years out of certain players.  I think Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are going to go ballistic in receiving yardage with Tyreek Hill probably not far behind.  The dark horse pick to be in the top five in receiving yardage is Calvin Ridley, he seems to have a good rapport with Trevor Lawrence already.
• Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson are all going to be elite RBs who are also excellent in the passing game, this much we know.  Two guys who could really break out as runners and receivers are Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard.  Chubb has always been an elite runner but the passing work went to Kareem Hunt.  With Hunt gone, Chubb should be some more use catching the ball.  Pollard has always been a weapon and now he’ll get the bulk of the running work and the passing game work.  The workloads from last season of Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry scare me a bit but they are still great players, just not sure they can match the production. 
• Bill Belichick needs Bill O’Brien to save his ass after last year’s offensive debacle and I think he does.  The Patriots won’t have an elite offense but they won’t look ridiculous like last season.  If the offense overachieves than O’Brien can head off to a head coaching job and Josh McDaniels can return for his third stint as OC (I’m not excited about that prospect). 
• I think Justin Fields takes a leap this year.  Having a better offensive line and WR DJ Moore is truly game changing.  Unfortunately, it might not improve their record by that much because I do not like their defense, especially up front. 
• The Chargers are one of the more intriguing teams of the year.  Going from Joe Lombardi at OC to Kellen Moore is a major upgrade, now Moore just needs to get Justin Herbert to throw it downfield.  The offensive line should be much improved with Rashawn Slater back from injury so Herbert should have time.  If Brandon Staley screws this up, he’s going to be someone’s defensive coordinator in 2024.    
• There are two first-year head coaches who should be worried about being one-and-done with their respective teams.  Frank Reich needs to get the offense playing well around Bryce Harper, I don’t think owner David Tepper is going to have a lot of patience.  Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon is not set up for success and if the Cardinals are worried that Caleb Williams might not want to play for them, they could make a play for USC head coach Lincoln Riley.  I think GM Monti Ossenfort is smart enough not to repeat the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray debacle (that was Steve Keim’s mess just to be clear), but I’m almost certain owner Michael Bidwell isn’t. 
• The top four picks in the 2024 NFL draft will be USC QB Caleb Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye, Ohio St. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and Penn St. OT Olu Fashanu.  Not necessarily in that order but something close to it.  Unless Williams decides he really doesn’t want to play for the Cardinals.