I really don’t want to have to talk about this division, it’s a mess. I’m picking the Saints because they have the best QB in the division and that QB is Derek Carr, that’s tough. Atlanta is getting a lot of love for some of their off season moves and draft picks and while I love Bijan Robinson as much as anyone, that roster is thin and that offense is counting on Desmond Ridder to overcome some things. Carolina looked like a mess in the preseason and if their line doesn’t block for Bryce Young, it’s going to be a bad year. For Young’s sake, I hope they figure it out, he deserves a chance. I can’t take Tampa Bay seriously with Todd Bowles coaching and Baker Mayfield as their QB.
New Orleans Saints
This team might be better than anyone is giving them credit for and it’s because they have Derek Carr at QB. He’s the only proven starting QB in the division and while there are questions around him, they might have better answers than other teams have for their questions. Carr have never been an elite QB but he’s always been a little better than he gets credit for.
The team actually has talent at the skill positions and it starts at WR now. Chris Olave had a very good rookie season with some less than stellar QB play. Pairing Olave’s downfield ability with Carr’s penchant for throwing it deep and they will be a perfect pairing. Michael Thomas is apparently back after two years away with some sort of ankle injury. He actually played in a preseason game so that’s a step in the right direction. If he’s healthy, he’s an amazing #2 WR. Rashid Shaheed is the third guy and he’s also an awesome deep ball guy so Carr will love him too. At TE, they have Juwan Johnson, an emerging player, Taysom Hill, the do-everything guy, Foster Moreau, the very good backup, and believe it or not, Jimmy Graham is back. Graham made the roster after not playing last year, he’s still looks like a red zone matchup nightmare.
The running game will rely on Jamaal Williams early in the year because Alvin Kamara is suspended to start the year. Williams was awesome last year scoring TDs for Detroit; he’ll need to do a little more for at least three weeks. Kamara is still a talent and they need him to rebound from some subpar years. Having an actual QB should help him as a pass catcher. Carr may love the deep ball but he also knows how to dump it off to his RBs. The offensive line returns four starters; LG Andrus Peat, C Eric McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, and RT Ryan Ramczyk. Those guys have been a unit for a while. LT Trevor Penning steps in after missing most of last season with an injury and they hope he’s ready to go. This line can be very good and if they give Carr time to find Olave, Thomas, Shaheed, and Kamara, they will have a good offense.
The defense has been excellent since Dennis Allen came on as defensive coordinator before he took over as head coach. They continue to be good but they are getting a little older in some key spots and need some young guys to step up. Cameron Jordan is still their best defensive lineman but he’s 34 and his production is slipping. Carl Granderson is the other starter, he’s not great but not terrible. They need Payton Turner and Isaiah Foskey to turn into real players. At DT they have Nathan Shepard and Khalen Saunders, two veterans who don’t move the needle but get the job done. Rookie Bryan Bresee is the guy who could really make a difference.
At LB it’s still Demario Davis holding down the middle. He’s also 34 but he’s still getting it done. He’s flanked by Pete Werner on one side, he’s solid but not spectacular yet. The other side is Zack Baun who hasn’t done much. They don’t have much depth.
The secondary can be very good. CB Marshon Lattimore is still a legitimate #1 while Paulson Adebo has become a pretty good second CB. Alontae Taylor needs to step up as the third corner. At safety, Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye are still getting it done. They may not be the playmakers they were when they were younger but they are smart and don’t get beat easily. This defense can keep this team in games unless the older guys really fall off. They may only have this year before that happens.
Atlanta Falcons
I’m not on board with everyone who is jumping on the Falcons bandwagon as the best team in this division. The idea that Arthur Smith is building some “positionless” offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts is premature. Last season the offense was hamstrung by Marcus Mariota’s inability to throw a football because of his nerve issue in his elbow and they still took forever to go to Desmond Ridder. I like Ridder more than some but that’s still worrisome. Ridder is no sure thing and he’s not really surrounded by tons of talent.
As far as pass catchers go, Drake London was a top ten draft pick and Kyle Pitts was a top five pick at TE but beyond them, it’s really thin. If they played RB Bijan Robinson as a full-time WR he would be the second best WR on the roster. Beyond London, it’s Scotty Miller, KhaDarel Hodge, and Josh Ali, that’s not a great depth chart. London and Pitts weren’t exactly lighting up last year in Smith’s offense and while Ridder is better than Mariota, he’s not Patrick Mahomes. This team is going to need their two TE sets with Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith to come through or this offense is going to be hurting.
The running game should be elite. The offensive line is good and they have a generational RB in Bijan Robinson. Robinson is a great runner with vision, balance, power, and speed. He’s an elite talent who can catch the ball out of the backfield too. He will be the focal point of the offense but he will also be the focal point of every opposing defense. Tyler Allgier is a good backup and should get some carries too. The offensive line returns LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, and RT Kaleb McGary. Lindstrom became the highest paid guard in the league this off season and McGary got a nice new contract too. The one change is rookie LG Matthew Bergeron coming in from Syracuse. They hope Bergeron can solidify the LG spot that has been a bit of an issue the last few years. This is a good offensive line that at times plays great.
To say this defense is in transition would be a major understatement. Long-time NFL defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired and Arthur Smith hired Ryan Nielsen off the Saints staff to replace him. It’s going to be a big change and there’s a lot of new faces. Starting up front the team signed Calais Campbell and David Onyemata to play alongside Grady Jarrett. Campbell has been a great player at times but he’s 37. He’s still a giant human though and this front needed talent. Onyemata takes over the NT spot after playing DT in New Orleans. He’s not the biggest NT but he’s a tough player. Jarrett finally gets some help up front. It feels like he’s been playing by himself up front for years.
The signings of Campbell and Onyemata at first looked like the Falcons might move to a 4-3 base defense but then their LB signings seemed to end that notion. They have the ability to play multiple fronts now but signing Bud Dupree at OLB and Kaden Elliss at ILB means they are still set up for a 3-4 defense. Dupree is a pass rusher from the OLB spot to pair with Lorenzo Carter and backed up by Arnold Ebiketie. Ellis joins Troy Anderson inside and all of this should improve the defense overall. Dupree is a bit of a wildcard given his injury history but Elliss was very good in New Orleans last season and Dupree, Carter, and Ebiketie should make a nice rotation at OLB.
The secondary starts with CB AJ Terrell, he’s one of the best cover corners in the game. Teams avoid his side of the field and the team needs to find him help. They are taking a chance on Jeff Okudah, who they traded for from Detroit, after he finally had a solid year. After being injured most of his first two years, Okudah played in 15 games last season and was fine. Fine would be an improvement opposite Terrell after the last few seasons in Atlanta. The team also spent major money on safety Jessie Bates III to stabilize the back end. They hope having Bates steady play at FS will improve Richie Grant’s play at SS and the backend overall.
Carolina Panthers
This team looked bad during the preseason but I’m going to overlook that and assume they will be a little better when the games actually count. The offensive line was not good in the preseason and that’s a major problem if it continues because Bryce Young can’t take a beating, he simply won’t last long without good protection. Let’s chalk that up to a new offense and the line trying to work out the kinks. This team will go as far as Bryce Young takes them, that won’t be very far this season but they shouldn’t be as bad as they looked in the preseason.
Young doesn’t have a cadre of weapons at his disposal, at least not great ones anyway. Adam Thielen is a professional WR who can still get open and move the chains but he’s not a dynamic weapon by any means. DJ Chark was once a dynamic player but injuries have made him less so at this point. Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo looks the part at 6’2 220 lbs. but he’s still a rookie. The team was so desperate for a playmaker they traded for Ihmir Smith-Marsette from Kansas City after he had a good preseason. Smith-Marsette has bounced around in his career because he generally makes some dumb mistakes, but he’s a playmaker if you get the ball in his hands. TEs Hayden Hurst and Ian Thomas are solid move the chain guys but aren’t scaring anyone.
The offensive line was quietly good last year once LT Ikem Ekwonu settled in as a rookie. They looked bad in the preseason but o-line coach James Campen is a good one and I think he gets them settled in. It’s a new offense with a lot of new ideas coming together and it may take them a minute. LG Brady Christiansen, C Bradley Bozeman, and RT Taylor Moton all return with Ekwonu. Their familiarity with each other should help. RG Austin Corbett is injured so for now it’s rookie Chandler Zavala starting. That’s going to be the issue, can Zavala hold up? The running back is free agent signee Miles Sanders. He’s a solid player who had a good year in Philly last season but he’s more the steady type than the game breaker. This team needs Bryce Young to create the big plays because the skill group isn’t going to do it.
The defense has some good players and now they have a top-level coordinator calling the plays. Frank Reich hired what should be an excellent staff on both sides of the ball but his best hire was defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. Evero was a master last year in Denver and he has some pieces to work with here. Up front the line should be built around Derrick Brown. Brown is one of the most physically imposing players in the league and while he hasn’t always been his best self, Evero should bring it out of him. Shy Tuttle and DeShawn Williams are the other starters and they aren’t great but they’re serviceable.
This defense will go as far as the LBs take them. Brian Burns had a breakout year last year and now he moves to OLB in Evero’s defense and he could be even better. He can be an elite player and this is his best chance. They didn’t have another legitimate pass rusher opposite Burns so they signed veteran Justin Houston. Houston is 34 but he’s still getting it done and he’s better than Yetur Gross-Matos or Marquis Haynes Sr. Inside it’s veteran stalwart Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu. Luvu was solid last year, they’re a solid duo.
The secondary has some of the fun pieces for Evero to use. CB Jaycee Horn played most of last season after recovering from an injury and he has the potential to be a CB1 another year removed from that injury. Donte Jackson will make a nice CB2 opposite Horn if Horn can ascend. The safety spot gets a veteran upgrade with SS Vonn Bell. He comes in and pairs with FS Xavier Woods to be a steady pair in the middle of the back end. The other thing he does is frees Jeremy Chinn from being a full-time safety. Chinn is the nickelback here and that will allow Evero to find ways to use him all over. Chinn doesn’t fit a traditional defensive role but his size and athleticism allows him to do many things.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If this team had an option better than Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at QB I might have picked them to win this division. That’s just how volatile this division might be and how little I think of Baker Mayfield winning the starting job. I have zero confidence in Mayfield’s ability to run this offense on the field and zero confidence in his ability to lead this team in any way. I’m not sure why but he’s just never been able to command a team the way a QB really should.
There is plenty of talent going to waste on this offense if Mayfield plays down to my expectations. Mike Evans is still one of the scariest deep-ball threats in the NFL. Chris Godwin is another year removed from his injury season and he’s always a catch monster. While they lost third receiver Russell Gage to an injury rookie Trey Palmer is an intriguing player who might be a better pro than he was a college player. He was limited at Nebraska due to QB issues, unfortunately I’m not sure that’s improved for him here. TE Cade Otten isn’t anything special but he’s fine.
The running game goes from Leonard Fournette to Rachaad White. White has some pop and he has a good overall skill set. The problem for him will be the offensive line he’ll be running behind. I have no doubt that Tristan Wirfs will go from being one of the best RTs in the in the NFL to one of the best LTs in the NFL very quickly. He’s a fantastic athlete with elite strength and ability. Surprisingly, Luke Goedeke made the move to RT from inside during the preseason and looked solid. That’s the good news, the bad news is the interior of the line. C Ryan Jensen was lost to IR for the year already, Robert Hainsey replaces him. Hainsey isn’t bad but he’s not Jensen and it weakens the pivot. Rookie Cody Mauch gets the RG spot and while I love his potential, he’s a rookie playing between a new RT and an okay center. LG will be manned by Matt Feiler, a free agent from the Chargers. There’s a reason the Chargers let Feiler go, he had an awful year last year. Pressure up the middle is going to make Baker Mayfield uncomfortable and it’s going to compromise the running game.
While I have serious questions about Todd Bowles as a head coach, he’s always been a great defensive mind. This defense is in a transition from some of its older players to its younger group of recent draft picks and free agents. Up front, rookie Calijah Kancey should take one of the DE spots outside of Vita Vea. Vea is arguably the best NT in football and Kancey is an undersized disruptor who needs Vea’s size to offset his lack of size. They hope former second round pick Logan Hall can take the other DE spot but they signed former Ram Greg Gaines just in case Hall isn’t up for it.
The LBs still feature veteran Lavonte David but the marriage between David and the team could end any time given his age. His leadership is still important especially after he helped the team smooth over contract issues with Devin White. White is the future at the LB position here but the team hasn’t extended him and it’s caused issues. At OLB Shaq Barrett is still the best bet to be the playmaker but he’s coming off injury and he’s 30. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is the guy they hope can break out; it hasn’t happened yet. Anthony Nelson gives them a young veteran they count on in a backup role, they may need to expand his role.
The secondary has talent but is also in a bit of a transition. Jamel Dean was re-signed to a new contract and he pairs with Carlton Davis III at CB to make a nice duo. They lost Sean Murphy-Bunting who had made them a nice trio and now they need a new guy for when they go into the nickel, for now it’s Dee Delaney. At safety, Antoine Winfield Jr. is fantastic but they are counting on career backup Ryan Neal coming over from Seattle to be the SS. Winfield covers for a lot of issues but not only is Neal not proven starter, they have little depth. Rookie free agents Kaevon Merriweather and Christian Izien are the only other safeties on the roster.
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