This division is Jacksonville’s for the taking. Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the division and leads the best unit in the division, the Jaguars offense. However, if the Jags defense lets them down, Mike Vrabel and the Titans will almost assuredly be better than we all think they will be because Vrabel is just that good of a coach. I’m not sure Houston or Indianapolis will be good but there’s a chance neither of them is as bad as we might think. The Texans got their two cornerstone guys in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson while the Colts have their lottery ticket in Anthony Richardson. Jim Irsay’s inexplicable handling of the Jonathan Taylor situation is going to make things more difficult in Indy for Richardson.
Jacksonville Jaguars
This team took a major step last season largely because of their massive upgrade at head coach with Doug Pederson replacing Urban Meyer. Having an actual NFL head coach running an actual NFL style offense with a legitimate offensive coordinator (Press Taylor) really allowed Trevor Lawrence to show what he can be. He just scratched the surface last season and another year in the system with more help on offense could really unleash his potential.
Lawrence made the most of what he had last year with pass catchers like Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram having career years. All of those guys are talented players who were finally being used to their full potential under Pederson but the offense was missing that one big play threat, enter Calvin Ridley. Technically Ridley joined the Jags last year during the season in a trade but he suspended for the year due to gambling. Now, he’s returned to football after almost two years off (he missed the season before for Covid related reasons). When Ridley last took the field in Atlanta for a full year, he was an excellent WR and was ready to be a true #1 WR. He and Trevor Lawrence have looked good together in preseason and this should scare opponents of the Jaguars.
The running game is in the hands of Travis Etienne who had a good year last year after missing his rookie year with an injury. He’s got electric speed and while he wasn’t great catching the ball last year, he was fine. His one area of concern was he didn’t score many TDs and the team addressed this issue by drafting Tank Bigsby. I wasn’t a huge Bigsby fan coming out of the draft but he can be solid in this backup role. The offensive line must play better and they start the year with LT Cam Robinson suspended for six games. Walker Little steps in there and I think he’ll do well. I’ve never been a Robinson fan but he’s been solid, I like Little’s upside. LG Ben Bartch is nothing special and RG Brandon Scherff is 31 and his age is starting to show. He’s not the dominant player he once was and they need him to be solid. C Luke Fortner was a rookie last year and played pretty well. Rookie RT Anton Harrison will step in with Robinson out and he’s looked good in the preseason. If the line gives Lawrence time and Etienne room to run, this offense can be great.
The defense needs to play better. They were not great last year and they didn’t really get reinforcements this off season. The team is counting on some young guys to step up their play and they need a couple of guys to have break out years. Their three-man front has Folorunso Fatukasi and Roy Robertson-Harris with a bit of a question mark in the middle because Devon Hamilton starts the year on IR. Angelo Blackson probably gets the call at NT.
The LB group is where they need real improvement if they want this defense to make a difference. OLB Josh Allen was the seventh overall pick in 2019 and he’s never been a true difference maker as a pass rusher. It’s time for him to be that or it’s time to move on. He needs some help from Travon Walker, the #1 overall pick from last year who had an uninspiring first year. Walker was changing positions so there’s still reason for optimism that he can be better, but they need it now. They still have former first round pick K’Lavon Chaisson for some reason, he’s always been a disappointment. ILB Devin Lloyd was a first rounder last year who started the year solid and then had some rookie struggles. Foyesade Oluokun was a former free agent splash who is a very productive LB.
The secondary returns all four starters and I’m not sure that’s a good thing. They are led by CB Tyson Campbell who could be a #1 CB but he’s just not quite there. That’s what a lot of this defense feels like, just not quite there. Darious Williams was a solid second CB and he’s back too. Tre Herndon looks like the nickel guy. Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins are decent as the safety tandem, that’s about the best I can give them. The offense is going to have to put up points to overcome this defense unless Allen, Walker, Lloyd, Campbell, and maybe Cisco really break out as top players this year.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans drafted Malik Willis in the third-round last year and then drafted Will Levis in the second round of this last draft and yet Ryan Tannehill is still the starter in Tennessee. Mike Vrabel just can’t quit him. Vrabel isn’t the type of guy to want to rebuild, or reset, or re-anything, he wants to win, even if it only means you’re winning nine games tops. Tannehill can win nine games with Derrick Henry running the ball and a good defense.
Tannehill has one of the least inspiring pass catching groups on paper but there is potential. DeAndre Hopkins was a late add this off season when he took the money the Titans were offering over his other options. Hopkins hasn’t been the picture of health the last few years in Arizona and he’s 31 so it doesn’t get easier. He can still be useful but he’s not likely to be a dominant player any more. Treylon Burks looked like a rookie a lot last year but he’s still a talented guy. In a more dynamic offense, he might be a more dynamic player but he is what he is in Tennessee. TE Chig Okonkwo is a very athletic player who has a chance to be a breakout player this year. This isn’t going to be a high-flying offense but they need to at least be a little threatening to keep teams from loading the box.
The offense still revolves around Derrick Henry. With the exception of the year he missed half the season with an injury, Henry has been a monster in this offense. Even with almost 350 carries last year he ended up nearly doubling his career high in catches too and being an even bigger part of the offense. He’s 29 and could fall off the cliff at any time but you could lose a lot of money betting on that. They did draft Tyjae Spears who might finally be a talented enough runner to take a little bit off Henry’s plate. The offensive line was abysmal last season and I’m not sure their changes are going to help. LT Andre Dilliard takes over, he couldn’t win the job in Philly for a reason. Daniel Brunskill gets the RG job, he’s not great. Aaron Brewer is a holdover at center, he’s average at best. RT Nicholas Petit-Frere is suspended to start the year leaving journeyman Chris Hubbard starting. Rookie Peter Skoronski looks like the only sure thing at LG, he’s a rookie and he’s the best lineman they have.
Mike Vrabel’s defense should be good. They signed a few free agents to help shore up the defense in a couple of weak areas. One place they aren’t weak is up front. Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL and Denico Autry is one of the more underrated ones. They flank Teair Tart, Tart isn’t one of the bigger NTs in the league but he’s still pretty good. Simmons is the disruptor up front and makes everyone’s job easier.
Harold Landry III had a breakout year last year with 12 sacks and that’s the type of production they need from him. He didn’t have much help in the sack department from the rest of the OLB so the team signed Arden Key hoping he could give a little juice. They also grabbed Trevis Gibson from Chicago after cut down day this year. Neither Key or Gibson have had great sack numbers but they are guys who can get some pressure. ILB is being turned over to Azeez Al-Shaair, a free agent from San Francisco, and Jack Gibbens, a rookie free agent from last year. Al-Shaair was overshadowed in San Fran with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw being awesome all the time. He’s a good LB and they need him to be with a guy as green as Gibbens next to him.
The secondary features some good CBs who have never quite been great CBs. Kristian Fulton is really good but not quite elite and Roger McCreary was pretty good as a rookie last year. They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting from Tampa Bay to give them more depth. It has hurt them that former first round pick Caleb Farley has never been healthy enough to fulfill his full potential. He’s dealing with a family tragedy from this off season so he’s not a factor at the moment. Kevin Byard is still one of the better free safeties in the league even if he isn’t as great as he once was and doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. SS Amani Hooker is a valuable versatile defender who is really coming into his own as a pro.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts aren’t going to be very good this year but they should be fun to watch as Anthony Richardson just becomes their offense. The Jonathan Taylor saga means even more will fall on Richardson’s plate. The passing game is going to be pretty rudimentary while Richardson gets used to playing QB against NFL teams but Shane Steichen will rely on Richardson’s legs to keep the offense moving.
The pass catching unit has some solid players but no major play makers. Michael Pittman Jr. is a good player and would probably be pretty good with an elite passing QB but Richardson isn’t that right now. Alec Pierce is a good downfield target in theory but we really haven’t seen that in reality so far. Isaiah McKenzie is a decent pro but he underwhelmed last year with Josh Allen as his QB. Josh Downs is a rookie who could be quite good in the slot. Mo Alie-Cox is a potential good TE but good is probably his ceiling.
The running game goes into the tank with Jonanthan Taylor starting the season on the PUP list. Zack Moss is coming off a broken arm in training camp and he’s the listed starter with Deon Jackson as the backup, that’s not good. The offensive line was awful last year and having an athlete like Richardson behind them instead of a statue like Matt Ryan will help but Richardson is also inexperienced so that won’t help. They are counting on LT Bernhard Raimann to be a full-time starter in his second year, he needs to make a leap if that’s going to work. Quentin Nelson is arguably the best guard in football when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last year, they need him to be this year. C Ryan Kelly is still fine but he just turned 30 so that’s something to watch. Will Fries was less than good at RG, that might be why RT Braden Smith had a subpar year. He should rebound but there is no guarantee.
The Colts lack an elite pass rusher on the edge, they have Kwity Paye, who is a good DE but not a high-end pass rusher. They have Dayo Odeyingbo who had a solid year last year and is another year removed from an injury, they hope he develops more. They signed veteran Samson Ebukam to give them some depth. Their real pressure player is DT DeForest Bruckner who they got a couple of years ago from San Franscisco. He’s a beast on the inside and really knows how to push the pocket. Grover Stewart plays next to him inside, he’s a solid pro.
The LBs were in trouble last year because Shaq Leonard was hurt and you simply can’t replace Shaq Leonard. Zaire Franklin is a good player but he’s a better player when Leonard is playing next to him. EJ Speed is a bit bigger than Leonard and Franklin and gives them a different look. This defense has been built around Leonard and his freakish playing speed, when he’s out, they just aren’t as good.
The secondary is going young at CB. They have Kenny Moore as their nickel guy and he’s the only one with any real experience. JuJu Brents is set to start as a rookie with fellow rookie Jaylon Jones backing him up. The other spot has two second-year guys Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr. It could be a long year for this group as they get thrown into the fire. Safety is handled by Julian Blackmon at strong safety and Rodney Thomas II at free. Blackmon is developing nicely but these guys are in for a tough year with the youngsters outside.
Houston Texans
There was a part of me that thought the Texans offense might not be as bad as everyone though it would be, then the offensive line fell apart at the end of training camp and, well, it’s going to be ugly. QB CJ Stroud is a good player who can run this offense at a high level if the rest of the unit was better but for now, he’s just going to have to try to survive.
This offense comes from the Shanahan tree as DeMeco Ryans brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco. Hopefully they can institute that type of running game to try to help ease the burden on the offensive line and on Stroud. Dameon Pierce is an excellent RB and he can carry a heavy load. They also have Devin Singletary for depth, that could prove crucial. The offensive line was looking good and they still are at a few spots. LT Laramy Tunsil is one of the better LTs in football. RT Tytus Howard isn’t elite but he gets the job done. The team traded for Shaq Mason to solve their RG issues and he should be solid. The problem is that they were hoping second-year LG Kenyon Green would take a step in his development but he’s now out for the year with shoulder surgery. They drafted Juice Scruggs in round two to solve their center issues and he’s out to start the year leaving sixth-round pick Jarrett Patterson to step in. Having a sixth rounder replace your second rounder is bad enough but they ended up taking Kendrick Green off the Steelers scrapheap to replace Kenyon Green, that’s a massive downgrade.
They need the running game to carry the load because this is one of the least impressive pass catching units you’ll find in the league. Nico Collins is probably their #1 WR by default. Collins isn’t a bad player he’s just not the guy you want being your WR1. Robert Woods was signed to bring a veteran presence, that’s about all he brings. Noah Brown was also signed for some reason. They have to hope their younger guys develop quickly. Tank Dell is a rookie, John Metchie missed his rookie year with cancer so he’s basically a rookie and they can hope Xavier Hutchinson outplays his sixth-round draft slot. TE Dalton Schultz isn’t a game breaker but he does give Stroud a reliable target.
I look at the defensive depth chart and it doesn’t look as bad as I thought it would. The team traded back up in round one of the draft to get Will Anderson. They have taken a lot of criticism for that move but Anderson is a cornerstone player, he sets the tone for the defense, and he gives DeMeco Ryans someone to build around. Anderson may never be a 15-18 sack guy but he’s a good edge player and he and Jonathan Greenard should generate pressure. They also have the ageless wonder Jerry Hughes as a rotation guy. Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins are solid NFL DTs, there are plenty of teams with guys worse than them starting.
The LB group is in transition. Denzel Perryman was brought in to be a stabilizing force in the middle. He’s bounced around in his career but he’s always a solid player. Christian Harris is a young guy with some athleticism who needs more reps to get better, they hope. For now, veteran Blake Cashman has the other spot. Cashman is fine but he isn’t great.
The secondary has two young guys with really high ceilings. CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the most talented players at the position. He needs to stay healthy so he can get the reps he needs to reach his potential. FS Jalen Pitre is the other young guy with massive potential. He could be one of the better safeties in the game especially playing in DeMeco Ryans defense. Steven Nelson starts at the other CB, he’s a solid veteran. They signed Jimmy Ward from San Francisco to be the quarterback of this defense. He was a guy they used all over for the 49ers and now he’s here to help the young guys learn Ryans’ defense. He will have a big influence on Pitre and probably Stingley too.
The Hott Read 