This is a two-team race with the 49ers and Seahawks both talented but flawed in their own ways and the Rams and Cardinals just waiting on the 2024 NFL Draft order to be decided. He cult of Brock Purdy is strong in San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan is determined to prove he can win with any QB. Trey Lance is already out so it’s Purdy at QB and Sam Darnold in the wings if he faulters. Geno Smith leads the Seahawks who look a lot like last year’s Seahawks. They are counting on some rookies to improve their fortunes and a new defensive line; they needed that change. The Rams are a bunch of older beat-up guys on offense and a ton of people you’ve never heard of on defense. The Cardinals are just hoping the Texans are as bad as they are so they can get two top five picks in the draft, hello Caleb Williams.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are considered one of the favorites in the NFC but they do have some serious questions and they are going to be in a dogfight with Seattle for the NFC West. The year started with the 49ers saying Brock Purdy was fine and would be the starting QB but no one wanted to believe them. Well, Brock Purdy’s elbow seems to be fine and the team traded Trey Lance so it’s clearly Brock Purdy’s team.
Purdy will work with one of the best collections of skill position talent in the NFL. The offense is led by RB Christian McCaffrey who is arguably the best RB in the league and plays for the best offensive play caller in the NFL, head coach Kyle Shanahan. McCaffrey is an elite talent and the only question is how much work do you give him in order to keep him healthy all year. They have Elijah Mitchell at RB so they don’t have to overwork McCaffrey. WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are dynamic after-the-catch play makers who can line up anywhere. That works well with McCaffrey who can line up like a WR while one of them shifts to the backfield, it makes matchups a nightmare for opposing defenses. TE George Kittle is one of the best TEs in the league and he does a bit of everything. He can be a tough matchup over the middle, he can block in the running game, and he can beat guys deep down the seam. Purdy learned to count on him in important situations and he always delivered. This is also the one team where I have to mention the fullback, Kyle Juszczyk is also a diverse weapon they can deploy all over the formation. It’s a tough offense to get a handle on and Shanahan is a master at creating advantageous matchups.
The offensive line is where things could get dicey for the 49ers even though Shanahan can usually scheme his way out of it. This offensive line group might be more of a challenge than usual for Shanahan. LT Trent Williams is not a question, he’s arguably the best LT in football and maybe the best offensive lineman in football, he’s awesome. LG Aaron Banks is fine, he played last year and wasn’t a problem. C Jake Brendel became the starter last season and he acquitted himself quite well. The issues could be on the right side of the line. Spencer Burford won the starting RG job as a rookie last year and then struggled a bit. The team rotated in Daniel Brunskill last year but he’s gone now and they only have Jon Feliciano to backup Burford. If he struggles, it’s going to hurt. The bigger problem is RT, Mike McGlinchy was too expensive to re-sign and they are giving Colton McKivitz first crack at the job. He played well at LT in the last game of last season but he’s an unknown quantity. If the whole right side struggles it’s going to hurt this offense. Brock Purdy will have to get the ball out quick to mitigate some of the offensive line inconsistency.
The defense has been fantastic for years, first under Robert Saleh and then under DeMeco Ryans, but they didn’t have a natural successor to Ryans on staff so Shanahan hired Steve Wilks. Wilks has been a very good defensive coordinator in his career but this is a different thing here. Also, he may not have Nick Bosa to start the year as Bosa is in a contract holdout right now and there’s no telling when it ends.
The defensive front takes on a different look without Bosa coming off the edge. Bosa is an elite pass rusher and without him it’s second-year man Drake Jackson and Raiders castoff Clelin Ferrell for now. Jackson is talented but he’s more potential than production. Ferrell flamed out with the Raiders and came to San Francisco to see if defensive line coach Kris Kocurek could resurrect his career. They need Bosa. DT Arik Armstead is still excellent and they signed Javon Hargrave to a massive deal for the other DT spot, that was because Javon Kinlaw has not lived up to his draft position.
The LB corps is led by the best MLB in football, Fred Warner. Warner is an absolute freak when it comes to being not only the best tackler in the game but he’s equally adept in coverage, that’s rare. Dre Greenlaw gets overshadowed by Warner but he’s excellent and as long as he stays healthy, the 49ers have arguably the best LB duo in the game. Oren Burks is penciled in as the third guy; he’s not going to be on the Warner/Greenlaw level but he just has to be serviceable.
CB Charvarius Ward has proven to be an excellent free agent signing as he’s a legitimate top CB and he’s in his prime right now. The team found a steal in former fifth round pick Deommodore Lenoir who became a starter last year and looks pretty solid opposite Ward. Another fifth-round pick from the same 2021 draft was SS Talanoa Hufanga, he had a breakout year last year and he’s a force. The team is looking to replace Jimmy Ward with Tayshaun Gipson Sr. and while that’s definitely a downgrade, this defense should be able to sustain it.
Seattle Seahawks
If Nick Bosa misses time or the right side of the 49ers offensive line can’t hold up, the door is open for the Seahawks to win the NFC West. The team pivoted from the Russell Wilson era to Geno Smith and they flourished. They still have some issues on offense and some questions on the defense but they are going to be good this year. Geno Smith finally got another chance to be a starter and he didn’t squander it. The team gave him a three-year contract and he’s back to keep the offense running.
This offense has some elite weapons. WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are a fantastic duo and the team added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft. JSN was the first WR taken and he’s an incredible slot receiver which is perfect for the Seahawks. Lockett and Metcalf are great on the outside and the team needed a middle of the field savant like JSN. Unfortunately, he broke a bone in his wrist and while they are saying he could be back within the first few weeks of the season, it’s not an injury that sounds good for a guy who has to catch the ball. They have no depth, especially with Dee Eskridge suspended the first six weeks of the year. The Seahawks should be scouring the waiver wire after cutdown day to find some receiver depth. TE Noah Fant is a very solid pass catcher and the team has some depth with Will Dissly and Cody Parkinson.
The offensive line should be better assuming LT Charles Cross and RT Abraham Lucas progress in their second seasons after starting as rookies. LG Damien Lewis is just figuring it out and can be pretty good. The two trouble spots are center and RG. Evan Brown has bounced around in his career and is penciled in at center but he’s going to have to hold off rookie Olu Oluwatimi. Phil Haynes is the RG until they find someone better. They don’t have any depth so an injury to the line could derail things quickly.
The defensive line needed to change and the team went for a complete overhaul. They spent big money on Dre’Mont Jones to star up front. They also signed veterans Jarran Reed and Mario Edwards Jr. and this should be the new starting defensive line. They also drafted Mike Morris and Cameron Young and they will probably be two of the main backups. The overhaul was thorough and complete.
The linebacking group found some solid pass rushers last season in Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor Jr. Nwosu became a full-time guy in his first season in Seattle and had 9.5 sacks. Taylor is a rotational player who was also effective. Boye Mafe will see more time this year in year two and the team hopes rookie Derick Hall contributes as a pass rusher. The team brought back Bobby Wagner at ILB because they struggled there. Jordyn Brooks is quite good but he needed help inside. They also brought in Devin Bush as depth.
The secondary is where this defense could really excel. CB Riq Woolen (formerly Tariq) had a fantastic rookie year and he gives them a big outside corner at 6’4. They used the fifth pick in the draft to take Devon Witherspoon to be the other CB outside. Jamal Adams cost the Seahawks a lot of draft capital a few years ago but he’s an elite SS when healthy, he wasn’t healthy last year, but they have to hope he is this year. Quandre Diggs is an underrated FS and pairs well with this group. The team also signed Julian Love from the Giants, he’s a versatile defensive back who could be the slot guy, he could also fill in at safety for Adams or Diggs if needed. This is a talented and deep secondary.
Los Angeles Rams
The division is a two-team race because the Rams and Cardinals are not going to be very good. The difference between the bottom two is that the Rams aren’t necessarily trying to be bad and their offense has an outside shot at being competent, assuming everyone gets healthy. It starts with Matthew Stafford, he missed most of last season with multiple injuries but he should be back to full health.
The team needs Cooper Kupp to be at his very best if they have any chance of being good. Kupp was great last year until he got hurt, getting hurt was a team activity last year. They don’t have great players beyond Kupp at WR but Van Jefferson could be good if he ever plays more than a couple of games at a time. Ben Skowronek is the other guy, he’s not that good but the Rams seem to like him. TE Tyler Higbee is the second most important pass catcher here and Stafford will look to use him plenty.
The running game goes where Cam Akers takes it. They only have Kyren Williams and rookie Zach Evans behind him, it’s not a great situation. Also, the offensive line needs to get healthy and it is starting to sort itself out. After committing money to Joe Noteboom to be their LT after Andrew Whitworth retired it looks like he’s lost the job for good. Alaric Jackson has stepped in at LT and Noteboom still isn’t healthy. Jackson and rookie Steve Avila should form a solid left side of the line and stabilize Stafford’s blindside. C Brian Allen is returning but late reports say Coleman Shelton has beaten him out for the job. RG is where they are potentially moving Noteboom if he gets healthy but Tremayne Anchrum Jr has been holding down the spot since spring and they like him. RT Rob Havenstein is a decent veteran and they count on him to remain that.
If you don’t recognize any names beyond Aaron Donald on this defense, you’re not alone. I consider myself well versed in NFL players and NFL rosters and I look at this defensive depth chart and think, who? Or, that guys starting? The defense is a disaster and there’s not a lot of hope right now. Donald will start on the line and probably Bobby Brown III at NT because they don’t have much there. The other starter is either rookie Kobie Turner or maybe Marquise Copeland, neither one inspires confidence.
Linebacker is in even worse shape considering they don’t have an Aaron Donald here. Ernest Jones Jr is probably their best LB, that is what you call faint praise. Rookie Byron Young probably starts as one pass rusher. Michael Hoecht is listed as the other starting OLB, I have no idea who he is. That is doubly true for the other ILB next to Jones, Christian Rozeboom, no idea at all.
The secondary has plenty of names I recognize but that’s not all a good thing. Ahkello Witherspoon and Derion Kendrick are the starters at CB. Witherspoon has bounced around for a reason and Kendrick flashes ability but he’s inconsistent, not a great trait for a CB. John Johnson III returns to the Rams after leaving for a big contract in Cleveland. He hasn’t been the same since he left and it’s rare that a guy returns to a place and goes back to being as good as he was there before. Jordan Fuller is the other starting safety and he’s just a guy. This team has a lot of rookies who could earn playing time, the problem is it’s not because they are all good, it’s because it’s the team’s only option.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are the odds-on favorite to be the worst team in the league and heading for a chance to pick Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year in the draft. The team is in complete overhaul mode with a new GM, new head coach, and probably a new QB next year. Kyler Murray got a huge extension and then got hurt last season and will miss at least a few weeks of the year, probably more than a few. This team will either be playing Clayton Tune or the newly acquired Josh Dobbs at QB. They are gutting the team and a trade of Murray seems inevitable next off season. Cutting presumed starting QB Colt McCoy was not really a tanking strategy, trust me, he wasn’t a great option. If they sign Carson Wentz, that would be a tanking maneuver.
The offense probably relies heavily on RB James Connor considering their QB options. Connor is a solid player and he can handle a heavy workload. New head coach Jonathan Gannon comes from a defensive background and he’s smart enough to realize his defense is going to be bad and he needs his offense to play ball control. The offensive line has DJ Humphries at LT for now. I say for now because this team may go into fire sale mode and a competent LT is worth something (how have the Jets not made a deal yet?). The team drafted Paris Johnson Jr in round one and while he’s won the RT job, he could easily slide over to LT if Humphries gets dealt. The interior of the line might get the QB killed (this is where Dobbs athleticism might be helpful). LG Elijah Wilkinson, RG Will Hernandez, and C Hjalte Froholdt are not good, don’t even hope. The line needs an overhaul apart from Johnson and it should start with the draft picks they get in a Humphries deal.
The passing game has three really small WRs who all bring different things, one big WR who is an injury risk, and very suspect QB (even when Murray returns). Marquise Brown is a 5’9 deep threat who is usually a boom-or-bust proposition from week to week. Rondale Moore is 5’7, coming off an injury plagued season, and he’s best in the slot with his hands on the ball. Greg Dortch is 5’7 and he stepped in when Moore was hurt last year and is now redundant. Rookie Michael Wilson is 6’2 but he had a hard time staying on the field at Stanford. Oh, and they have Zach Pascal because someone has to have Zach Pascal. Zach Ertz returns from injury at TE and he makes for a nice safety outlet for whoever is unlucky enough to be playing QB for this team.
If you think the offense sounds rough, get a load of this defense. Jonathan Gannon has his work cut out for him and if they are transitioning this thing from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (and it looks like they are), yikes. It’s basically SS Budda Baker and ten guys no one else wants. Former GM Steve Keim was one of the worst drafting GMs over the last several years and this roster reflects that reality.
Up front the team has NT Leki Fotu, he’s built like a traditional 3-4 NT and they are going to have to see if he can transition to a 4-3 DT instead. Carlos Watkins or Rashard Lawrence will probably start next to him. At DE, Jonathan Ledbetter will probably be one starter while former Seahawks first-round bust LJ Collier will battle Cameron Thomas for the other spot.
The one guy who could benefit from Jonathan Gannon and his system is Zaven Collins. Collins was a first-round pick a couple of years ago and they have been playing him at ILB in the 3-4 defense. Collins has the ability to play outside and the athleticism to be used as a rusher. Gannon had Hassan Reddick in Philadelphia and while I’m not certain Collins has the pass rush instincts of Reddick; Gannon could use Collins similarly in his scheme and see if he can generate pressure with him. Kyzir White played for Gannon in Philly last year too and he’s probably the starting MLB. Guys like Dennis Gardeck, BJ Ojulari and Myjai Sanders are going to try to find a spot either at LB or as DEs, wherever they think they can stick.
In the secondary they have Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson at safety. Baker is one of the top safeties in the league and deserves to play on a better team. Thompson isn’t a household name but he’s actually been pretty effective as a partner for Baker. They are the last line of defense and with this front seven that’s a very literal term. At CB, the team really likes Marco Wilson, he’s not the worst corner in the league but he’s not a legitimate #1 corner either. He does look really good compared to the rest of the group; Antonio Hamilton Sr., Kei’Trel Clark, Garrett Williams (who I would like a little as a rookie if he were healthy), and Kris Boyd. This defense is going to get destroyed most weeks. New GM Monti Ossenfort started the rebuild when he traded back in the draft last year to pick up an extra first round pick in 2024. He needs to see what he can get for Humphries, Baker, and anything else anyone might want, that includes Kyler. The team started to jettison guys by shipping former first rounder Isaiah Simmons to the Giants in the preseason, they need to clear cap space so they can eat the dead money on Kyler’s deal next off season. Ossenfort seems more pragmatic than Keim ever was and he seems smarter too.
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