This division is going to be a bloodbath. I like the Bengals because I think Burrow and that offense hasn’t peaked yet and the defense is still good enough. If you told me all four teams in this division finished 10-7, I wouldn’t be surprised. They are going to beat each other up and AFC is no picnic outside the division. I’m in on Baltimore being better with a healthy, happy Lamar and no more Greg Roman. If Watson is better the Browns should be good. The Steelers are always steady but Kenny Pickett and a defensive backfield that’s questionable make me nervous for them. The difference between first and last in this division might be one game. I think Cincinnati is the best team in the division but you could shuffle the other three teams in an order and I would buy it.
Cincinnati Bengals
I’m picking the Bengals because it looks like Joe Burrow’s injury isn’t going to keep him out and this team is ready to roll. This division is going to be tough with Lamar Jackson back to full health, the Browns hoping to rebound in Deshaun Watson’s second year, and Pittsburgh is always tough. The Bengals offense should be one of the best in the league, the defense just needs to be steady.
Burrow is an elite QB but it certainly helps that he has the league’s best three-man WR group. Ja’Marr Chase is one of the top three WRs in the NFL, Tee Higgins is a #1 WR in his own right, and Tyler Boyd is a fantastic slot receiver who gets overshadowed by two elite teammates. They didn’t have much depth at the position so they grabbed two rookies to help, Andrei Iosivas and Charlie Jones. Jones gives them a nice return man too. They don’t have a top TE option so they are taking a flyer on Irv Smith Jr.
The running game is in the capable hands of Joe Mixon, at least for this year. They will ride with him as much as possible because Samaje Perine left for Denver. Trayveon Williams returns but rookie Chase Brown might be the more likely backup. The offensive line got a boost when they signed LT Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency. They needed the upgrade and bringing him in at LT allows them to move Jonah Williams to RT where he should be an upgrade over last year’s starters at the position. LG Cordell Volson, C Ted Karras, and RG Alex Cappa aren’t winning any awards but they should be steady and with better play on the edge, this line should be fine.
The Bengals don’t have superstars on the defensive line but they have excellent players who play well together. Trey Hendrickson is the playmaking pass rusher; he didn’t have his most productive year last year but he’s still really good. Sam Hubbard is a solid player on the opposite side. The team grabbed Myles Murphy in round one of the drafts to give them some upside depth. DJ Reader is a big, physical presence in the middle and he’s generally underrated. BJ Hill is a solid player next to him.
The LB corps is also full of guys who aren’t superstars but are generally better at their jobs than they get credit for. The team often only plays two LBs while being in the nickel and Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt are the two they use. They are both solid players who are good tacklers and can do a bit of everything. Akeem Davis-Gaither is usually the third LB.
The secondary is in transition as both starting safeties departed and #1 CB Chidobe Awuzie is returning from injury. Eli Apple is gone so Cam Taylor-Britt will keep his starting spot after he replaced Awuzie last year, now he pairs with him. Former first-round pick Dax Hill will step in at one safety spot while free agent Nick Scott should be the other one. Rookie CB DJ Turner II and rookie safety Jordan Battle are going to make it a competition for the veterans at their spots. Turner can push Taylor-Britt and Battle should push Scott. They will likely rely on the veterans early but Turner and Battle are talented guys.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ long, drawn-out nightmare of Lamar Jackson’s contract negotiations is finally over and he got a lot of money, which we knew he would, and they didn’t give a Deshaun Watson-level of guaranteed money, which we also knew would happen. All that bluster from both sides and we ended up exactly where we knew we would. That’s good news for them as long as Lamar is happy and more importantly, healthy. The happy part should be easy now that Greg Roman is gone and Todd Monken is the new offensive coordinator. Also, Jackson finally has legitimate NFL level receivers.
The Ravens went out and actually got Lamar Jackson legitimate NFL receivers. That may sound disrespectful to last year’s group but they were subpar. Odell Beckham Jr. is coming back from missing last year with an ACL tear and he’s still better than last year’s guys. They drafted Zay Flowers, he’s an upgrade in the slot, they hope Rashod Bateman can get healthy but even if he doesn’t fully come back, they signed Nelson Agholor, that’s the best fourth WR they have had, maybe ever. They still have Mark Andrews at TE. His production was down last year but Jackson missed a lot of time. They also have Isaiah Likely backing him up, he could be a player.
The offensive line should have four spots locked down. That’s assuming LT Ronnie Stanley is finally healthy, they need him to be. C Tyler Linderbaum is climbing the ladder as one of the best centers in the game. RG Kevin Zeitler is 33 but he just keeps chugging along. RT Morgan Moses isn’t amazing but he’s solid. The one spot they need to figure out is LG, there are plenty of options, not sure any of them are great. The running game is hoping for the fully healthy rebound for JK Dobbins but he started training camp on the PUP list. They have Gus Edwards and Justice Hill but Dobbins is the best option if he’s healthy.
The Ravens have always been known to have a great defense but it’s going to take an especially good year from defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The team isn’t its usual stacked self and they will be relying on hope in some key spots instead of counting on proven players. The defensive line has three solid guys; Justin Madubuike, Michael Pierce, and Broderick Washington. Those guys can play the game but it would really help if Travis Jones emerged at NT.
The LBs are set on the inside. Roquan Smith came over in a trade last season and immediately stepped in as the star he is. His addition seemed to really help Patrick Queen become his best self. The Ravens pass rush comes from their OLB spots and that’s where the hoping and wishing really comes in. Odafe Oweh and Jadaveon Clowney are the likely starters and neither one is an elite pass rusher. Jadaveon Clowney was a late addition during camp and while he adds value, he’s never been an elite pass rusher, just a solid overall player. David Ojabo took his rookie year as a redshirt and comes in looking to emerge off the edge. He’s a talented player but he was raw coming in and he missed last year rehabbing a knee, they hope he’s ready to contribute.
The secondary can be the best unit on this defense but they need to play better than they did last year. Marlon Humphrey is their top CB, he’s a good player but he’s injured at the moment, that doesn’t help. They signed Rock Ya-Sin to be the other CB and he replaces Marcus Peters, who had been falling off a bit. Ya-Sin is a solid #2. They signed Ronald Darby; he’s a decent veteran and we will see plenty of Jalyn Armour-Davis. At safety they are in great shape with Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton. Williams is one of the best in the game and Hamilton is rapidly rising up that list.
Cleveland Browns
I can’t believe I’m picking the Browns over the Steelers in this division but I think they are just slightly better. It’s quite possible the Browns are just the Browns and the Steelers are just the Steelers and Cleveland ends in last place but if they aren’t good this year, it’s never going to happen. The wildcard for this team is Deshaun Watson. I don’t want to spend a lot of time on him but if he’s the best version of himself, this team will be good, if he’s last year’s version, Kevin Stefanski will be looking for a job.
This offense can be good if Watson finds his form again. The offensive line can be excellent. Jedrick Wills Jr. hasn’t quite been as good as some of his draft classmates at LT but he’s fine. If Jack Conklin is healthy at RT, he’s good and they drafted a solid backup option in Dawand Jones. Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller are an excellent pair of guards and Ethan Pocic was pretty good at center last season. The running game is still in the capable hands of Nick Chubb, he’s one of the best RBs in football. He doesn’t have his running mate, Kareem Hunt, any more but Jerome Ford should be solid.
The pass catching group is better than you think. Amari Cooper isn’t an elite #1 WR but he’s a very productive one nonetheless. The team returns Donovan Peoples-Jones and while he’s not my favorite, they seem to like him. They added Elijah Moore in a trade and he can be a good slot receiver if they give him a chance. I really liked the drafting of Cedric Tillman, he’s an underrated addition. TE David Njoku isn’t going to be mistaken for Jimmy Graham in his heyday but he’s an effective player for the Browns.
The defense is led by superstar DE Myles Garrett. He’s in his prime at 27, coming off a 16-sack season, and they finally got him some legitimate help up front. Za’Darius Smith is likely the best pure pass rusher Garrett has ever lined up opposite of in his career (Jadaveon Clowney is not a great pass rusher). They also signed DT Dalvin Tomlinson to secure the interior so hopefully they won’t get destroyed up the middle in the run game. If Shelby Harris happens to win the other DT starting spot, that would be three new starters on the defensive line with Garrett, smart moves.
The Browns run defense was atrocious last year and a big part of that was terrible linebacker play in the middle (the DTs were bad also). Anthony Walker Jr. was supposed to be the guy at MLB last season but he got hurt early and their run defense fell apart. He’s back and they need him badly. Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah is a speedy, undersized LB but they are finding ways to make him useful. Sione Takitaki is the third guy when they play three LBs. He’s just a guy which is why they use five DBs often.
This secondary has the talent to be elite. CB Denzel Ward can be one of the best in the game. He’s not the biggest guy but that has never stopped him from covering anyone. Martin Emerson Jr and Greg Newsome II are good, young CBs with size and skill. FS Juan Thornhill is an underrated pickup who can be an excellent centerfielder for this team. SS Grant Delpit will be better off at SS with Thornhill covering his back. If this team gets better consistency upfront from Tomlinson and Smith and the LBs aren’t a total liability, this defense has a chance to be really good.
Pittsburgh Steelers
We know the Steelers won’t be bad, they never are, however, I’m not sure how good they will be. They may not have substantially improved the offensive line, Kenny Pickett got better as the season went on last year but what’s his ceiling, and the defense has some questions at ILB and in the secondary. Mike Tomlin can get them to nine wins but that might still only be fourth in this division.
Pickett had a brutal start to his rookie year once he took over the job but he faced a string of really good defenses right out of the gate. He got better and that’s encouraging but how good can he really be. He has the weapons if he can figure out how to use them. Diontae Johnson was a target machine last year and he can’t possibly be as bad at scoring TDs as he was last season. It was inexplicable how a guy with 86 catches on 147 targets didn’t score once, that can’t happen again. George Pickens is one of the most physically impressive WRs in the game, they need to find ways to use him beyond him just running go routes all game (this is where Matt Canada returning as offensive coordinator is a problem). They signed Allen Robinson hoping he has something he hasn’t shown in several years. They have to hope Calvin Austin III finally figures it out. TE Pat Freiermuth is the unsung hero of the passing game. He’s not a household name but he’s talented guy who can make life easier for Pickett.
The running game has talented RBs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, even if Harris looked less than stellar last year. The problem isn’t the RBs, although you could make the argument, they should give Warren more carries and use Harris less. The problem comes up front. The offensive line was not good last season. LT Dan Moore Jr struggled and the team drafted Broderick Jones to replace him. Jones failed to unseat Moore and I’m not sure if that’s because Jones was that bad or Moore played better. He’s still not a great LT but if he’s better, that helps. They signed Isaac Seumalo from Philly, he’s an upgrade at LG but he’s not great. They need C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, and RT Chukwuma Okorafor to raise their games. If not, it won’t matter what changes Matt Canada makes to the offense, it won’t go anywhere.
Defense is generally not a problem in Pittsburgh and they still have plenty of talent to be good, however, there are some obvious questions they need to answer. The front three is not where you get massive production because that’s not what they are asked to do, they just play tough up front. Someday the now 34-year-old Cameron Heyward isn’t going to be great but I’m not betting against him. Rookie Keeanu Benton is already slotted into the NT spot, he’s going to be fine, he’s made for it. Larry Ogunjobi is a veteran who can hold his own.
The star power for the Steelers defense has come at OLB for a very long time. TJ Watt is an in-his-prime pass rushing star who is coming off an injury that kept him out for about half of last year. He should be fine and he should be back to being his superstar self. With Watt injured last season Alex Highsmith had his breakout year with 14.5 sacks and now the Steelers hope he and Watt can play together and both be highly productive. They need them to be because the ILB spots are in flux. The team signed Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts as new starters because they just weren’t very good at ILB last year. They even signed Kwon Alexander as depth. Holcomb and Roberts are fine but neither one really moves the needle.
The secondary is also in flux. Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best and most versatile safeties in football and he’s back, the rest of the starters might all be different. Patrick Peterson is 33 and while he’s nowhere near his old self, they hope he still has something left to stabilize one CB spot. They also hope rookie Joey Porter Jr can step in at the other spot otherwise they have to go back to Levi Wallace. Wallace is okay but Porter has a lot more potential. They also signed Chadron Sullivan to be the nickel corner but he was so unimpressive they signed Desmond King II after he was cut by the Texans. King is a good nickel guy but if you’re taking guys cut by Houston, I don’t like your roster building at that point. At safety they are counting on Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal to make one good player opposite Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick erases a lot of issues in a secondary but this one might have too many even for him to fix.
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