I’m going with the Bills winning because they have earned it but it’s not a sure thing. The coaching staff issues on defense worry me, Von Miller’s age and health worry me and they may have just missed their window. I’m picking the Patriots second because they have an elite defense just like the Jets but the Jets have an even worse offensive line situation and I’ll take Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien over Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett every day, especially on Sundays. I’m picking them over the Dolphins because the Dolphins offensive line isn’t great either, their QB is one major hit away from retirement and their defense still needs to prove it will be great under Vic Fangio and that’s going to be harder without Jalen Ramsey for most of the year. This division is going to be competitive and the difference between first and last might be two games.
Buffalo Bills
I’m picking the Bills to win this division but I’m not all that confident in this choice. The team was good last year but flamed out in the playoffs, they didn’t add anyone of major significance, and they have a few question marks going into the season. Josh Allen is still the best QB in this division and none of the other three teams look ready to take the title from Allen and the Bills just yet. They won’t walk through this division but they should come out on top.
Allen gives the Bills a leg up, he covers for any possible flaws in this offense but he could use some guys stepping up. Stefon Diggs is a legitimate #1 WR but there was a moment this off season where he seemed upset with his contract status. If he isn’t fully focused this team has an issue. They need Diggs because they don’t have a clear second star in the passing offense. Gabe Davis hasn’t proven to be consistent enough, Dawson Knox isn’t that guy, and none of the rest of the WR/TE group are proven guys. The one guy that might end up being the player they need is rookie TE Dalton Kincaid and relying on a rookie TE to take your offense up a notch would be foolish.
The running game is mostly Josh Allen when it matters and while the team likes to talk about using RBs more it has been the same talking points for years now and it never changes. James Cook is the new RB they like to talk about and they also tout the fact they signed Damien Harris to take the short yardage carries off of Allen. Cook is a second-year guy who couldn’t unseat Devin Singletary last year so we’ll see how that goes. Harris is a talented big back but he has a hard time staying healthy and he’s already gotten banged up in camp. The offensive line isn’t great. They don’t have a top player at any position. LT Dion Dawkins and C Mitch Morse are above average but that’s the best thing you can say about them. Rookie O’Cyrus Torrance took the RG spot and he gives them their best chance at an elite starter, just probably not this year. Ryan Bates, Connor McGovern, and Spencer Brown, get the job done but they aren’t great.
The problems on defense start with the fact that Sean McDermott let Leslie Frazier go as defensive coordinator and is taking it over himself. McDermott is an accomplished defensive coach but I think he should be concentrating on the whole team as the head coach.
Miller was having a good season when he got injured last year and he was having a great effect on the rest of the defense. That was especially true for young pass rusher Greg Rousseau who was breaking out with Miller on the opposite side. The problem was that when Miller went down, Rousseau’s production tanked too. That’s not a good sign. The team did sign veteran pass rusher Leonard Floyd to go with AJ Epenesa and Shaq Lawson but Miller is starting the season on the PUP list meaning he will miss at least the first four games. DT Ed Oliver got a big contract, now he needs to play up to it. DaQuan Jones is the bigger body in the middle who makes Oliver’s job a bit easier.
At LB, things get interesting after the team let Tremaine Edmunds walk in free agency. Matt Milano does return but he needs a partner in the middle. Milano is an excellent player but either Tyrel Dodson or Terrel Bernard is going to have to step up. The Bills mostly play only two LBs but if one of them isn’t up to snuff, it could get rough.
The secondary needs Tre’Davious White to return to his pre-injury form as a top CB in the league. He has the talent and hopefully the health this year. They also need Kaiir Elam to take a step in his second year, he’s a talented player but he was inconsistent last year. Taron Johnson is their nickel guy and they play five defensive backs a lot. The good news for the Bills is that they will hopefully have their full complement of safeties back and ready to roll. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde both missed games last year (Hyde missed all but two). Obviously, Demar Hamlin also had that little issue where he died on the field for a moment. I can make that joke because miraculously, he’s back and ready to play. I don’t cheer for the Bills but I’m cheering for that guy. Poyer and Hyde are an elite duo at safety when healthy, Hamlin is an inspiration to this team.
New England Patriots
Bill Belichick’s coaching greatness took a serious blow last season with the Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator experiment, it was an unmitigated disaster. Common sense has been restored and Bill O’Brien is back to run an actual NFL offense. Mac Jones was a solid rookie when he had Josh McDaniels running the offense, last year he was bad because Patricia was awful, this year he gets back to an actual offensive mind running things. The preseason put to rest any thoughts that Bailey Zappe will take Jones’ job when Zappe looked so bad, they cut him instead of carrying him as the backup.
The passing attack should be better with Jones feeling less frustrated and there is some hope for improvement from the group of pass catchers. I’m not a DeVante Parker fan but he’s serviceable on the outside. Kendrick Bourne probably benefits from Matt Patricia’s ouster almost as much as Mac Jones, he’s out of the doghouse and Bill O’Brien has him starting. JuJu Smith-Schuster needs to get healthy but he should catch a lot of passes mostly playing out of the slot. The two big X factors for this offense are two rookie WRs. Demario Douglas has been the star of camp, he’s going to light it up, especially if JuJu misses time and Douglas becomes the main slot receiver. I had my concerns about Kayshon Boutte coming out of LSU but he’s proven to be a major play maker. The Patriots passing game needs a big play guy, Boutte has the talent to be that. TE Hunter Henry isn’t flashy but he’s reliable and O’Brien and Mac will trust him when they need third down conversion or in the red zone. The other potential playmaker is TE Mike Gesicki, he’s working back from an injury, but he’s a dynamic pass catcher when healthy.
The running game is in good hands with Rhamondre Stevenson coming off an impressive year and the mid-camp signing of Ezekiel Elliott. Stevenson was one of the best backs in football last year despite playing in a trainwreck of an offense. He was a bell cow carrying the ball and he’s a talented pass catcher. One thing Stevenson was bad at last year was short yardage conversions, enter Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke is one of the most effective short yardage backs in football. He may not have the elite game breaking ability he had earlier in his career but he still knows how to convert on third down and find the end zone inside the five. The Patriots needed a true #2 tailback and they found a perfect fit.
The offensive line is a mess, they need guys to get healthy, and to start the year they are carrying 11 offensive linemen, that’s ridiculous. LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, and RG Michael Onwenu haven’t been healthy in camp and the backups haven’t been good. C David Andrews is the only sure thing because the Patriots haven’t even settled on a RT yet. They are trying rookie Sidy Sow at RT but he’s a work in progress. New offensive line coach Adrian Klemm has his work cut out for him but at least he’s not Matt Patricia, who was not only a terrible offensive coordinator last year but doubled as a crappy o-line coach too. They have veterans like Conor McDermott, Calvin Anderson, Riley Rieff (if he doesn’t end up on injured reserve), none of them have played well. Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi are young options inside and they have no young options at OT except Sidy Sow. Klemm needs to work some magic and O’Brien must scheme up some ways to help the offensive line otherwise this offense is going to struggle.
The Patriots’ defense was one of the better defenses in football last year and they drafted three rookies who will help, one at each level of the defense. Up front, the defensive line has veterans Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, and Davon Godchaux starting. These guys don’t generally light up a stat sheet but that isn’t their job. Their job is to make life easier for the LBs to make plays and they do that very well. Christian Barmore is going into his third year and he could be ready for a breakout. Rookie Keion White is the perfect Belichick defensive lineman with size an athleticism and he may be a guy who can be a playmaker up front.
Linebacker is generally where the playmaking comes from in a Belichick defense. Matt Judon has proven to be one of the best free agent splurges the Patriots have ever made and he’s an elite pass rusher for this team. It really helped him last season when Josh Uche broke out on the opposite side as a pass rusher because it took some focus off of Judon. Those two should continue to feed off each other with Anfernee Jennings the primary backup. On the inside Ja’Whaun Bentley has never been my favorite guy but he’s gotten better and Patriots have found ways to use him where he’s most useful and not put him in situations he’s not great at. Jahlani Tavai is the other starting ILB for now but he’s going to steadily lose time to rookie Marte Mapu who is an athletic freak. Mapu is a converted safety/undersized LB whose athleticism is going to make him a playmaker on the inside. He’s going to be fun to watch develop over the next several years.
The secondary got its biggest boost in a while when CB Christian Gonzalez inexplicably feel to the middle of round one in draft and Patriots got him. Gonzalez is exactly what this defense needed, a big, physical outside corner to match up with the other team’s best receivers. Gonzalez is going to make his rookie mistakes but he’s going to be huge for this team. Gonzalez’s addition should allow the Patriots to move Jonathan Jones back inside where he’s one of the better slot corners in football, that upgrades two spots. That’s assuming Jack Jones isn’t suspended too long (he needs to get his head on straight) and can be the other outside corner. At safety the team has four guys who will rotate depending on matchups. Kyle Duggar will get the most playing time, he’s earned it. Adrian Phillips backs him up but can also play alongside him. Jabrill Peppers is a jack-of-all-trades kind of guy who can also play either safety spot, some slot, and even come up like he’s a LB. Jalen Mills is still a guy I can’t stand but he’s much more tolerable as a matchup specific fourth safety than as a starting CB.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins’ offense is absolutely elite under the direction of Mike McDaniel as long as Tua Tagovailoa is running it. Tua admitted this off season that he contemplated retirement due to all the concussion issues he dealt with last season. He’s the perfect QB to run McDaniel’s offense because he’s a precision passer who can get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle like he’s a point guard dishing out assists. The problem is his health.
The problem with counting on Tua staying healthy is that the Dolphins still haven’t fixed an offensive line that might get Tua killed. It’s not for a lack of trying, in the past several years they have signed free agents like Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, and Isaiah Wynn, and drafted Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson, and Robert Hunt high in the draft. None of these moves have fixed the offensive line. Armstead is an elite LT when healthy, that’s about 10 games max per year. They signed Wynn to help, that’s not a solution, 10 healthy games from him would be a reach and he’s not great when he is healthy. Williams is a solid center and Eichenberg should settle in at LG but neither is elite. It’s still a mishmash trying to find the right combination and when your QB has concussion issues, an inconsistent offensive line means you’re living on the edge of disaster.
That said, this team has elite skill position players and probably the fastest group of players in the NFL. You could put together an amazing 4 x 100-meter relay team with WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and RBs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. Hill and Waddle make this offense absolutely frightening. Either one can take a five yard catch and turn it into a 80-yard TD at any moment. They don’t have a lot of depth because #3 WR Cedric Wilson had 12 catches for 136 yards last year in 15 games, which is basically a solid Tyreek Hill game. Braxton Berrios is the next guy. RB Raheem Mostert is a beast when he’s healthy but that’s hard to count on which is why they have Jeff Wilson Jr. He’s solid in the McDaniel’s running scheme but he’s starting the year out with an injury. Achane is the x factor. If they use him right and get him involved, he’s a big play monster they could unleash.
The Dolphin’s defense has some excellent players on it and they could be elite but they are making transition from Josh Boyer’s defense to Vic Fangio which is like going from driving a Smart Car to driving a Ferrari. Fangio will be more aggressive and that’s usually a good thing but it can lead to giving up plays if guys don’t know what they are doing. The defensive front features DEs Christian Wilkins and Zach Seiler. Wilkins is fantastic and he gets a lot of praise, rightfully so. Seiler is good too but gets less recognition for it. They flank NT Raekwon Davis, as with most NTs Davis is unheralded but quite good.
At OLB is where Fangio should unleash the playmakers this team has. They traded for Bradley Chubb last year and he’s a proven commodity provided he can stay healthy. He will play opposite emerging star Jaelan Phillips. They need these two to play to their absolute best because they need to generate a pass rush for the defense to work. The team did hedge a bit against these two staying healthy by keeping Andrew Van Ginkel around. The inside LBs are Jerome Baker, a speedy playmaker who tackles everything and free agent signee David Long Jr. Long is also an undersized guy like Baker except he’s even shorter.
The secondary looked like it could be a real strength when they traded for Jalen Ramsey to pair at CB with Xavien Howard, then Ramsey went down with a knee injury and things got a little tougher. They don’t want to have to count on rookie Cam Smith but he might be the better option but for now it’s second-year man Kader Kohou. The safety spot is similar in the fact they have one good starter, Javon Holland, and the other spot is questionable with DeShon Elliott penciled in right now. Holland is a player but his job is lot harder if the other safety is bad. The secondary really needs the pass rush to put pressure on the QB to make their lives easier otherwise, this defense could come apart at the seams.
New York Jets
The addition of Aaron Rodgers is clearly the headline for the Jets and I think he’s a major addition even if he isn’t peak MVP Rodgers. Zach Wilson was so unbelievably bad last season that he completely destroyed the Jets offense. Rodgers doesn’t have to be his best self; he just has to not be a complete disaster and he improves this team. I think Rodgers will be slightly better than good but probably not all the way to great, assuming he doesn’t get annihilated behind this offensive line. Ah, there’s the problem.
I’m not going to sugarcoat this, the Jets offensive line might be the worst one in the league, it’s that bad. The guards are good, let’s start there. Laken Tomlinson isn’t quite as dominant as he was in San Francisco and he is 31 so he’s probably just good at this point, not great. Alijah Vera-Tucker has all the ability to be one of the best guards in football, he’s coming off an injury but he should be good. C Connor McGovern is holding on to his starting job for now as rookie Joe Tippman is banged up. There’s a reason they drafted Tippman, McGovern isn’t great. The OT positions are where this team can really fall apart. LT Duane Brown will be 38 this season and he only holds this position because they can’t come up with anyone better. Mehki Becton is set to be the RT assuming he can’t win the LT spot back from Brown. Becton was the LT many moons ago but he’s battled injury and ineffectiveness the past several years. They need him and Brown to settle in at the tackle spots or they may have to use Max Mitchell and Billy Turner.
The skill position talent is excellent for the Jets. WR Garrett Wilson had a great rookie year with some terrible QBs so having Rodgers should only make him better, assuming Rodgers doesn’t just throw to all the former Packers the Jets now have. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb joined the Jets, they are Rodgers favorites. Mecole Hardman was also added from Kansas City, they have plenty of talent and depth at WR. They should play Lazard, Wilson, and Hardman the most (Cobb shouldn’t be used a lot, but he’s penciled in as the slot guy right now). At TE they have Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah, solid duo. RB Breece Hall was a star until he tore his ACL last season, they can ease him back in this year. They signed Dalvin Cook to give Rodgers a veteran to count on and to give Hall a little more space to return.
As much as I question Robert Saleh as a head coach, I can’t question him as a defensive mind. The Jets defense was definitely better than the sum of its parts. They don’t have an elite pass rusher but they manufactured pressure with Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers at DE and Quincy Williams blitzing at LB but I’ll get to him. Lawson and Franklin-Myers were good but they aren’t elite pass rushers which is why the team spent a first-round pick on Will McDonald IV to be a pass rush specialist. He’s undersized but he’s got speed off the edge, which is what they need. DT Quinnen Williams is a beast inside (Quincy is his brother) and he commands a lot of attention inside, opening the edges a little. Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson, and Solomon Thomas give them a rotation at DT.
The LBs are led by Quincy Williams. He’s generally been known as Quinnen’s brother but he had a great year last year. They used him as a blitzer to create pressure but he’s also just a good LB. CJ Mosley plays the middle and he’s still a tackling machine even at 31. Those two get the bulk of the playing time at LB. Jamien Sherwood is the third guy, he’s just a guy.
The secondary is led by second year CB Sauce Gardner. Gardner staked his claim to being the best CB in the league last year as a rookie (it’s a him and Patrick Surtain II duking it out for that title). DJ Reed is a really good second corner. Jordan Whitehead does his job and safety and the team thought they had a plan opposite him when they traded for Chuck Clark from Baltimore. Then injury struck Clark and they quickly pivoted to veteran Adrian Amos. Amos isn’t the guy he once was and he’s fighting Tony Adams for the starting job but at least he’s veteran if they have to turn to him.
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