This division belongs to the Kansas City as long as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are together and Brandon Staley is still coaching the Chargers. The Chiefs are great and the Chargers can make the playoffs if Kellen Moore can unleash Herbert. Staley has to figure out how to stop hurting his own team, that would help a lot. Denver has coaching competency now but I’m going to have to see Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson before I believe it and that’s hard to do when all your WRs are hurt. Josh McDaniels might just be one of those guys better suited to be a coordinator than a head coach and the Raiders look directionless.
Kansas City Chiefs
This team is the Super Bowl Champions and someone is going to have to take the crown from them before I’ll pick against them. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the football, there is no debate. He lost his top WR last year when they traded Tyreek Hill and all he did was go win another MVP and another Super Bowl. Andy Reid is a Hall of Fame coach and he’s the best in the league right now. He has understood how to evolve with the times and continue to win (something a certain Hall of Fame coach in New England needs to learn). Mahomes makes his job easier but Reid continues to put Mahomes in a position to win. This team isn’t without questions it needs to answer.
The WR corps lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman but that shouldn’t slow them down. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney all return and while they hope to get more from Toney, he’s already hurt and he’s unreliable. Richie James was signed, Rashee Rice was drafted, and they hope Justyn Ross can step up this season. Mahomes makes the WRs better than they are but the passing offense goes through superstar TE Travis Kelce. He and Mahomes have a special connection and Kelce is a matchup nightmare for every team. As long as Mahomes and Kelce are playing together, the passing offense will be fine.
The offensive line is where the real questions are on this offense. They have the best interior offensive line group in the league. LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, and RG Trey Smith are three of the best at their positions and the best trio overall. It’s the tackle spots that have some questions. They lost Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie and they signed Jawaan Taylor to big contract and then took Donovan Smith off the scrap heap from Tampa Bay. Smith will play LT, allowing Taylor to play at RT where he has spent his career in Jacksonville. If anyone can make Smith look good at LT, it’s Mahomes. Taylor should be fine at RT but it is a new system. The running game will be handled by Isaiah Pacheco, last year’s seventh round rookie. He’s fine, he’s not great, he’s fine. Jerrick McKinnon had a great finish to last year and he’s their veteran insurance.
The defense is better than it gets credit for because Steve Spagnuolo is a fantastic defensive coach and he was smart enough to build this defense around DT Chris Jones. Now the team just needs to give Jones a contract extension so he’s happy and on the field. Jones is the best DT in the NFL not named Aaron Donald and he’s the engine of this defense. Derrick Nnadi is a stout partner inside for him and George Karlaftis was pretty solid at DE as a rookie last season. They signed DE Charles Omenihu for the other spot but he’s suspended to start the year. They may have to rely a little more on rookie first round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah then they would like until Omenihu is back.
The LBs are a solid group now after they signed Drue Tranquill in free agency. He’s a solid third member of the trio with two very talented young players in Willie Gay and Nick Bolton. The team does play nickel a lot so Gay and Bolton play most of the time but Tranquill gives them more options.
The secondary played better last year than anyone could have reasonably expected with three rookies logging serious time. Surprisingly, first rounder Trent McDuffie played the least because he started the season hurt. Jaylen Watson was quite good at CB and between him, McDuffie and L’Jarius Snead, the CB position should be fine. Bryan Cook, the other rookie who ended up a starter at SS made a very nice pairing with Justin Reid. The Chiefs figured out how to put together a roster with some expensive pieces, you need to find starters late in the draft, and they did.
Los Angeles Chargers (I still nearly wrote San Diego)
There are two things that stand in the way of the Chargers making a deep playoff run; one is health, two is Brandon Staley making dumb coaching decisions at the worst possible times. The Chargers seemed to be cursed on the health front. They lose critical players every year and it completely undermines what they are doing. Staley should stop trying to be the smartest guy in the room and overthinking things so much that he outsmarts himself. He did finally make one coaching decision in the off season that was very smart. He fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and hired Kellen Moore. Moore’s aggressiveness should help harness the best of Justin Herbert.
Herbert is where this offense starts. He’s a master processor of information and he always makes the right reads and knows what to do with the ball. Now he has an offensive coordinator who can design an offense that lets him do more than dump it off to Austin Ekeler half the time. Herbert has elite arm strength and now it’s time to unleash it. WRs Mike Williams and rookie Quentin Johnston can be major downfield threats. Keenan Allen can work over the middle as well as anyone and if Moore’s years in Dallas are any indication, TE Gerald Everett could have a big year.
Austin Ekeler is one of the best RBs in the NFL and he’s been the focal point of the offense for years. He’s a great runner and even better pass catcher. He’s the ultimate dump off weapon and screen game superstar. They need to rely on him less and go down the field more but taking some of the load off him might make him more effective when they need him most. The offensive line has to get healthy. LT Rashawn Slater should return after missing last year and he can be one of the best LTs in football. C Corey Linsley isn’t getting any younger but he’s still one of the best in the pivot. G Zion Johnson struggled at times as a rookie but he would be better if there was more stability around him. He was also playing on the right side and this year they are moving him to the left side where he’s more comfortable. It looks like Jamaree Salyer will step into the RG spot, he was a forced into action as a rookie at LT last year and he wasn’t bad, he should be good at RG. RT Trey Pipkins III also missed time last year and if he can’t find his way this season, perhaps Salyer ends up at RT. They need some stability up front to make this unit it’s best.
Morgan Fox, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Austin Johnson are the three starters on the defensive line. They aren’t great but they don’t have any depth so those three need to stay on the field. They need to stop the run better but some of that is on the LBs. The edge rushers are Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, they are the superstars. They also have to stay healthy, which has been an issue for Bosa far too often. When they are playing, they’re tough, but they also don’t have great depth. They hope rookie Tuli Tuipulotu can give them something as a reserve.
The inside LBs have been below average for a while and that has led to this team being pretty poor against the run. They are getting desperate so they went out and signed 31-year-old Eric Kendricks from Minnesota. Kendricks is past his prime but he might still be better than they have had for a few years. They are also clearly hoping he rubs off on Kenneth Murray Jr., the other ILB who has been a disappointment for years. Murray has talent but it’s time for him to live up to it.
The secondary has some questions too. The big one is what can they get out of JC Jackson? He was a major free agent signing last year who was a total non-factor. He didn’t fit the scheme and he played horribly when he did play. They need him to contribute. Asante Samuel Jr. wasn’t awesome but I still like his potential and he’s still very young. Derwin James can be a game changer, he just has to stay healthy (it’s the theme of this team). Alohi Gilman and JT Woods need to be solid safeties to help make Brandon Staley’s defense work.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are hoping Sean Payton can fix Russell Wilson and that Vance Joseph can keep the defense playing at a high level. It would be easier for Payton if the Broncos offense has more luck when it comes to their health, they aren’t off to a great start in camp. Joseph won’t run the defense the same way Ejiro Evero did last year but he’s an accomplished defensive mind with some good pieces to work with.
This offense won’t be defined by Russell Wilson, Sean Payton won’t let that happen. I don’t think Wilson is as bad as he was last year, he was a poor fit in Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Payton is the type of offensive mind who will design his offense to use the skills Wilson has and he’ll also understand that Wilson isn’t the player he once was. It would help the passing game if the WRs could stay healthy but Tim Patrick tore his Achilles and is done for the year and they cut KJ Hamler because he wasn’t healthy. That would have left Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and rookie Marvin Mims as the top three guys. Then Jeudy got hurt. Jeudy played well to end the year last year and they need him back. Sutton is in a make-or-break year. After his breakout 2019 season, he had an injury season and then two very pedestrian years. He has talent, he needs to show up. Mims is a rookie they liked enough to trade up for, he has the skills and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities with all the injuries.
The running game needs a return to health from Javonte Williams. Williams has elite RB ability but he’s coming off a multiple knee ligament injury and that’s never easy. He’s participating in camp and got pre-season snaps so that’s encouraging. He can be a superstar if he’s healthy. They did sign Samaje Perine to hedge against Williams potential knee issues. Even if Williams is healthy, Perine brings value as a pass catcher with upside, Payton loves pass catching backs.
The offensive line also needs a return to health from LT Garrett Bolles. He broke his leg last year in week five and even before that, he wasn’t playing his best. The offense was a mess and he clearly missed his previous offensive line coach Mike Munchak. Payton cleared out the offensive staff and he brought in Zach Strief, a former offensive lineman for him in New Orleans, to coach the line. Bolles has the talent to be a top LT, we’ll see Strief can get him back there. They signed LG Ben Powers and RT Mike McGlinchey, two tough run blockers. Quinn Meinerz returns to play RG with Lloyd Cushenberry III at center. I’m not sure Payton is sold on Cushenberry but it’s his job for now.
The team traded Bradley Chubb last year and let Dre’Mont Jones walk in free agency, they need some new guys to help get pressure on the QB. The big free agent addition up front was Zach Allen at DE. They generally don’t look for pass rush from the front line in a 3-4 so that’s good because Allen isn’t that guy. DJ Jones is good on at the NT position but this team is pretty thin up front. They signed veteran free agent Frank Clark, who has some size, but he’s more of a pass rusher than a 3-4 DE.
They hope Clark helps with the pass rush but he’s been losing his effectiveness for years. Randy Gregory was a big free agent signed last year but per usual, he missed a lot of games. If you’re pinning your pass rush hopes on Clark and Gregory, it’s going to be a long year. Lucky for them they have a couple of young guys with potential.
Baron Browning went from being a backup ILB to playing as a pass rusher out of necessity late last year, and he looked very effective. He has a knee issue which has him sidelined early but they hope to have him back during the season. The other guy is rookie third-round pick Drew Sanders. Sanders played ILB at Arkansas last year but started his career as a pass rusher at Alabama. He has the ability to be a pass rushing OLB and with all the guys at OLB having injury histories, Sanders could seize the opportunity. At ILB the team returns Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton. Jewell needs to stay healthy and playing since he’s the best they have. Singleton is a solid player too. They don’t have much depth behind them and Drew Sanders likely cross trains at both OLB and ILB just to be safe.
The secondary has two elite players and two questions in its starting lineup. CB Patrick Surtain II is one of the elite CBs in the NFL. He’s a shutdown guy and opponents tend to avoid throwing to his side of the field. Justin Simmons is the longest tenured Bronco and while he doesn’t always get recognized nationally for it, he’s a great safety. He’s the leader of the defense and he’s as tough as they come. SS Kareem Jackson was re-signed but he’s 35 and going into season 14. They probably want Caden Sterns to take over that spot but he’s young and makes mistakes, Jackson doesn’t. The other CB spot has a bullseye on it because no one wants to challenge Surtain’s side of the field. Damarri Mathis is the incumbent after playing last year as a rookie but rookie third rounder Riley Moss is going to give him a run for it. K’Waun Williams was supposed to be the nickel guy but he got hurt, it’s Essang Bassey’s job now.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders finally decided they had enough of Derek Carr, or at least Josh McDaniels did, and they replaced him with Jimmy Garoppolo. In general, that’s a move that doesn’t really feel like it matters, however, it does change the dynamic of the offense. Carr was a guy who liked to throw it deep, evidenced by the fact that Devante Adams had over 1500 yards last season in an offense that wasn’t very good, and Hunter Renfrow only had 36 catches. Some of that was McDaniels design, but Carr played a certain way. Jimmy G throws about 95% of his passes within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage (that’s a general estimate, not an actual stat). This offense will look different, assuming Jimmy G stays healthy enough to play in more than half the season.
I doubt Adams is all that enthused about the switch from Carr to Jimmy G. In two years, he’s gone from MVP Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s the equivalent of trading in your Lamborghini for a Buick and then trading in your Buick for a Toyota Tercel that breaks down all the time. Adams won’t be the only WR unhappy. Hunter Renfrow was the nearly forgotten man in McDaniels’ offense last year and then the team signed Jakobi Meyers in free agency. Meyers is master in the slot, Renfrow’s best spot. As a Patriots fan I wasn’t happy to see Meyers leave but the good news is that if Bill O’Brien turns around the Patriots’ offense this year and gets a head coaching opportunity, Josh McDaniels is very likely to be available for his third stint as the Patriots’ offensive coordinator. The team also signed Austin Hooper at TE and drafted Michael Mayer in round two. Hooper should be more reliably healthy compared to Darren Waller, who was traded to the Giants. However, Mayer is the guy who will have to replace his production.
The running game was good last year because Josh Jacobs was superhuman. He held out all of training camp until just after preseason games ended and then signed a one-year deal. This offense would have looked a lot worse without him. Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah, and Brandon Bolden are not going to get it done. LT Kolton Miller is a good player, the best offensive lineman on the team. Second-year LG Dylan Parham still has potential to be good. C Andre James isn’t awful, but he’s not good either. The right side of the line is bad. RG Greg Van Roten and RT Jermaine Eluemunor are well below average. Having a bad offensive line with an injury prone immobile QB spells trouble for this offense. The good news is their next head coach could be starting out with a new QB when this team ends up drafting Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2024 draft.
The Raiders defense isn’t great either. They have one great defensive player up front in DE Maxx Crosby but last year he was basically working alone. DE Chandler Jones was their big free agent addition on defense last year and he was terrible. They need him to rebound and bring some pass rush opposite Crosby. They also drafted DE Tyree Wilson seventh overall but he’s coming off a foot injury that they are being extra careful with during training camp. The DTs are Bilal Nicols and Jerry Tillery, not exactly guys who inspire confidence.
Just when you think the defensive line isn’t great you look over and see a truly uninspiring group at LB. Divine Deablo is a young, athletic, undersized MLB and he’s the best of the bunch. They signed Robert Spillane from Pittsburgh and after that it’s a bunch of guys no one has ever heard of, not that anyone has really heard of Spillane either.
The safety position has Marcus Epps, who they signed from Philadelphia and former second-round pick Tre’von Moehrig. They should be fine but they aren’t game changers. The CB spot is way worse. They finally signed Marcus Peters just as camp opened and he immediately becomes their top CB. Peters is a 30 and has been in decline for the past couple of years but he’s by far, the best CB on this roster. Nate Hobbs is a solid nickel guy but that’s really all. Duke Shelley played a lot last year because they needed him, he returns. The other guys are Brandon Facyson, David Long Jr, Amik Robertson, and rookie Jakorian Bennett. They seem to be giving Bennett a chance, it can’t hurt.
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