This division should be interesting. The Lions might be the one complete team. The Vikings should have a good offense but their defense is suspect. The Packers offense is loaded with young guys led by an unknown quantity at QB, Jordan Love. And their defense tends to underachieve. The Bears may have finally built a good offense around Justin Fields and we may see just how good he can be. The problem there is they’re going to have to score five TDs a game to overcome a terrible defense. Let’s take a look.
Detroit Lions
The Lions’ hype train is in full force and it’s hard to argue against after they way they finished last season. They went on a great second half run and they should be better this year. There are a few question marks but that probably still puts them ahead of everyone else in their division. The offense returns most of their key guys and where they lost some people, they may have upgraded.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but Jared Goff was pretty good last year and there’s no reason to think he can’t lead this team to the playoffs. One critical factor on offense is the return of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who passed on head coaching opportunities last year to come back to Detroit. He’s a genius for figuring out how to run this offense to fit Goff’s skills and make due without a true outside receiving threat (the one major question on offense is the WR position overall). Jameson Williams is supposed to be that guy this year but he’s out six games with a gambling related suspension. If Williams can give them a legitimate outside threat, he makes this offense much better. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar slot receiver and rookie TE Sam LaPorta will give them a nice third receiving option. They don’t have any great receivers otherwise and it’s the one thing that could be a problem on offense.
The running game gets a total facelift with Jamaal Williams leaving for New Orleans and D’Andre Swift traded to Philadelphia. The team signed David Montgomery in free agency and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall. Montgomery becomes the traditional power back grinding out yardage and being the short-yardage guy, a.k.a. the new Williams. Gibbs is the replacement for Swift as the pass catcher/playmaker out of the backfield. The hope is that Gibbs is healthier and even more explosive than Swift, given his electric playmaking ability. Detroit’s offense has been at it’s best with Ben Johnson calling plays but a lot of their success can be traced to them having one the best offensive lines in football. LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow and RT Penei Sewell are all fantastic. Sewell is quickly rising to the top of the OT position in the league while the other three are outstanding at their positions. The RG spot had some issues last year but the team picked up veteran Graham Glasgow as insurance incase Halapoulivaati Vaitai isn’t healthy again.
The Detroit defense is where the question marks mostly come for this team. The defensive line is led by Aidan Hutchinson going into his second season. He had a good first year with 9.5 sacks but I wouldn’t expect him to get more than maybe 12 in a season. The good news is the team has depth at DE and got good production from guys like James Houston and John Cominsky and they have some other guys who could contribute like Romeo Okwara, Josh Pascall and Charles Harris. They are more than the sum of their parts.
At LB, the team needs rookie Jack Campbell to live up to his first-round status and there’s no reason to think he won’t. Campbell has the size, the athleticism, and the instincts to be a legitimate starting LB. He’s the most talented LB on the team. I love Malcolm Rodriguez but he’s undersized and needs to be used in a way that mitigates his disadvantages. Alex Anzalone is a nice veteran to have around but he’s not the guy you build a defense around. Derrick Barnes is a young guy they really like and he should start outside.
The secondary was overhauled in the off season I’m just not sure it was enough. This is the one area that could still kill Detroit’s chances at their division and limits their upside in the playoffs. Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton were signed in free agency to be the new CBs, and they needed new CBs. However, Moseley began training camp on the PUP list and remains there, they need Sutton outside at CB and he’s probably still better suited for the slot. Speaking of the slot, they have that covered. They signed CJ Gardner-Johnson, he’s a safety/nickel hybrid who does his best work in the slot, and drafted Brian Branch, who’s also a safety/nickel hybrid who does his best work in the slot. All this probably means the team leans on Jerry Jacobs at outside CB quite a bit again, they like him but he’s a limited player physically.
If I were a betting man I’m taking the Lions in this division but that’s because I like the answers the Lions have to their questions better than the other three teams in this division. That’s not a ringing endorsement and I probably wouldn’t take the Lions in the playoffs except for the fact that the NFC isn’t stacked with great teams.
Minnesota Vikings
One reason I’m picking the Lions in this division is that I have many questions about the other three teams. When that’s the case, go with the team with the known quantity at QB. I may not like Kirk Cousins but the guy is consistent, that should go a long way in this division. The Vikings had 11 wins by one score or less last year, that’s not sustainable, but nine or ten wins probably means second in the NFC North.
Kirk Cousins is the steady veteran QB who’s good enough to make you a playoff contender but not enough to make you a viable Super Bowl team. He will be playing on a very talented offense. Justin Jefferson is in the conversation for the best WR in the NFL (if he had an elite QB, it might not be a question). The team replaced veteran Adam Thielen with rookie Jordan Addison. It’s going to take Addison some time to adjust, but he’s a really talented player. The trade for TE TJ Hockenson last year from Detroit was key. Hockenson is one of the more talented TEs in the NFL and he’s a real threat over the middle and down the seam.
The offensive line is pretty good. LT Christian Darrisaw is really coming on as one of the better LTs in the league. RT Brian O’Neill is an underrated veteran who’s steady but unspectacular. The interior is LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garrett Bradbury, and RG Ed Ingram. They aren’t a flashy group but they are all still young and play well as a unit. The running game gets a new look this year with Alexander Mattison ascending to the top spot after the team cut Dalvin Cook. Cook has been the mainstay of this offense for a while but Mattison has proven to be an affective replacement when he has been called upon. This offense should continue to produce in Kevin O’Connell’s second year.
While the offense should be good the defense could be another story. They struggled last year and the biggest addition is bringing in Brian Flores to overhaul the defense. He brings a different philosophy and style and they hope he gets more out of the guys he has. Danielle Hunter will play on the edge in more of a LB role than a DE and he’ll have free agent addition Marcus Davenport on the opposite side. They have three pretty non-descript linemen upfront in Harrison Phillips, Dean Lowry, and Khyiris Tonga. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Hunter and Davenport because there aren’t a lot of playmakers in this front seven.
The two inside LBs should be Brian Asamoah II and Jordan Hicks, they are the definition of average. Average would be on the high end of outcomes for the secondary. Harrison Smith returns at safety and he’s been a good player for a long time but he’s 34, he can’t be the guy who fixes everything any more. Cam Bynum starts opposite him, he’s fine, he’s still young. It would help a lot if last year’s first-round pick, Lewis Cine, can come back healthy from a devastating injury that ruined his rookie year.
The CB position is in a major transition. They signed Byron Murphy Jr. as the major free agent addition but they may need him to play outside when he’s best suited to the slot. Andrew Booth Jr. is another guy who missed a ton of time last year as a rookie but unlike Lewis Cine, they need him. Cine can ease back in, Booth can’t. The rest of the depth chart is even more question marks. Akayleb Evans, Mekhi Blackmon, and Joejuan Williams are not top of the line guys. Brian Flores has his work cut out for him.
Green Bay Packers
Most people’s questions regarding the Packers are about Jordan Love taking over the offense from Aaron Rodgers. I have less questions about that and more questions about why this defense isn’t better and will the youth around Love really step up. Matt LaFleur has proven he’s a good coach and I think he’ll put Jordan Love in positions to succeed. Love has spent three years learning on the sidelines and I think he can step in and run the offense.
The pass catchers on this team are really young. WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are second-year players while slot receiver Jayden Reed is a rookie. If Reed doesn’t win the slot job it’s probably second-year man Samori Toure winning it. The top two TEs are rookies Luke Musgrave and Tucker Craft. Jordan Love is entering year four and he’s the elder statesman of the passing offense. Lucky for him, he has very good RBs and a good offensive line.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are a very talented RB duo. Dillon went through a bit of a sophomore slump last year but he should bounce back. Either way, Jones is still one of the most well-rounded RBs in the league. He’s a top-notch runner and a fantastic pass catcher and any time Jordan Love gets in trouble, he can look to dump it off to Jones. The offensive line can be one of the better ones in the league if everyone is healthy, and by everyone I mean LT David Bakhtiari and LG Elgton Jenkins. Bakhtari is one of the best LTs in football when he’s healthy and Jenkins could make the Pro Bowl at multiple positions if he stays on the field. C Josh Myers, RG Jon Runyan, and RT Zach Tom are solid players.
The Packers defense shouldn’t be the problem but for some reason, they are (hint: it’s probably the coordinator). Matt LaFleur decided to stick with Joe Barry as his defensive coordinator, he does less with more than anyone in the league. When healthy, this defense should have seven starters who were first-round picks (DL Kenny Clark, DL Devonte Wyatt, LB Quay Walker, LB Rashan Gary, CB Jaire Alexander, CB Eric Stokes, and S Darnell Savage), that doesn’t include this year’s first rounder Lukas Van Ness. It also doesn’t include two very good starting veteran LBs, De’Vondre Campbell and Preston Smith.
The defense is stacked. The front seven includes Kenny Clark, one of the best defensive linemen in the game. OLBs Rashan Gary and Preston Smith are a very good pass rushing duo off the edge, and now they have Lukas Van Ness as depth. Campbell and Walker are very good at ILB. They need Wyatt and NT TJ Slaton to play well up front to keep the LBs clean, but that’s not too much to ask when Kenny Clark is taking a lot of the focus up front.
The secondary has one of the best CB in the NFL in Alexander. He can be truly special. They need Eric Stokes to get healthy and stay that way but Rasul Douglas has done a good job stepping in. Darnell Savage is a talented player who had his struggles last year, he needs to turn it around. The other safety spot is a question after Adrian Amos wasn’t re-signed. Rudy Ford won the starting job there but I’m guessing they will be looking for safety help after cutdown day.
If the Packers defense gets off to a bad start LaFleur is going to have to make the move to replace Barry. He needs to be proactive because it’s always better to make the move yourself instead of letting the front office dictate it. There isn’t an obvious choice on staff to replace Barry considering no one else has prior play calling experience but defensive line coach/run game coordinator Jerry Montgomery has been around awhile. The looming shadow of former Wisconsin Badger defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is also hanging over Barry’s head.
Chicago Bears
I’m picking the Bears last in this division for one reason and one reason only, this defense is going to be terrible. I think the offense has a chance to be pretty solid but I’m not sure they can average 35 points a game so the record is going to suffer. It took Luke Getsy a hot minute last year (okay, it was like seven games) to finally figure out how to use Justin Fields, but once he did, Fields was electric. He has a better offensive line and actual real receivers this year.
Fields is one of the best athletes in the NFL, not just one of the most athletic QBs, one of the best athletes. This leads the general football fan to think he’s just a runner at QB, that’s not true, he’s got the arm to be an elite passer. This year he should have more time behind an improved line, DJ Moore gives him a legitimate deep threat WR1, and his receiving corps is upgraded. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are better suited to be a #2 and #3 WR which is where they line up now. Also, don’t sleep on rookie Tyler Scott, if Mooney or Claypool faulter, Scott can step up. TE Cole Kmet is never going to be Rob Gronkowski but if he was late-career Jason Witten catching 70 passes a year for 800 yards, that’s a good TE.
The offensive line got a major new piece in rookie RT Darnell Wright. The best thing about Wright is he’s an excellent RT and there’s no wondering where he will play, he’s a RT and only a RT. That’s actual a good thing because it clears up a few things. Braxton Jones is staying at LT. He had his ups and downs as a rookie last year but he’s going to be a pretty good LT, he has all the tools to do so. It also means Teven Jenkins can concentrate on being the best guard he can be. He moves to LG with newly signed Nate Davis at RG and that also solidifies things. Cody Whitehair is making the move back to center, he’s better than what they had there. Late camp injuries are making the team shuffle the interior a bit but hopefully guys get back sooner rather than later. Putting five guys in set spots and letting them gel together is a good thing. D’Onta Foreman joins Khalil Herbert in the backfield. It’s not the most inspiring RB duo but they can get the job done. Herbert has ascended to the top spot but they will use Foreman. Also, look out for rookie Rochon Johnson, he’s the do-everything RB who could steal the job eventually.
This defense is going to be a problem, just not for their opponents. The defensive line is uninspiring to say the least. They signed DeMarcus Walker at DE, he’s a nice player but he’s not scaring anyone. They signed Yannick Ngakoue just after camp got started and he’s easily their most accomplished pass rusher. Rasheem Green and Dominique Robinson are the other options at DE. Justin Jones and Andrew Billings are veteran DTs but they are just guys. The two rookie DTs, Zadch Pickens and Gervon Dexter Sr., should get more and more time as the season goes on.
The linebacker corps is far more talented but they may get washed out a lot if the defensive line can’t hold up. They spent a boatload of money to sign Tremaine Edmunds at MLB to replace Roquan Smith, who they traded last year. Edmunds is a very different player, he’s long, tall, and rangy. The Bears need him to be a steady superstar to build around. They also signed TJ Edwards away from Philly and he’ll join Jack Sanborn flanking Edmunds. These two aren’t the flashy guys, they do all the dirty work and they’re solid players.
The secondary has the most potential but at this point it’s far more potential than production. Safety Eddie Jackson is the one guy who’s a truly accomplished NFL player, he’s good and he’s the leader of the unit. He’s joined at safety by Jaquan Brisker who’s a very good young player. Brisker has a high ceiling and he could have a breakout sophomore year. CB Jaylon Johnson has been a steady but not spectacular presence for the past several years. Still waiting for him to really step into a lead role. The team drafted Kyler Gordon last year and then followed that up with Tyrique Stevenson this year. Gordon has his rookie issues but he’s a talented player. I’m not a huge Stevenson fan but he’s an elite athlete who could be very good if his head is on strait and they coach him up. I have a feeling this defense is going to get this team into many shootouts and while the offense will be much improved, I’m not sure they will be enough to really make difference. The offense is going to be much improved I’m just not sure how much better the team will be overall with a weak defense.
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