Every year I like to make my predictions for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the year, division winners (you can get those from my previews too), my playoff teams and my Super Bowl pick. This is an exercise in futility as I never get these right but hell, what else do I have to do. Here it goes…I reserve the right to be wrong about all of it, because I’m clearly going to be wrong about all of it.
MVP
Top Contenders: QB Josh Allen, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Tom Brady, QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Jonathan Taylor, DT Aaron Donald
Sleepers: QB Matt Stafford, QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Herbert
This is a QB award and right now it belongs to Aaron Rodgers but he’s going to have a harder time holding on to it without Devante Adams around. Tom Brady is always in the conversation but his bar is set so high because he has been so great that if he didn’t win it last year with the stats he had, he’s not pulling it off unless the Bucs go 17-0. Mahomes might have a chance if he can be just as productive without having Tyreek Hill and if he can win the very tough AFC West. Lamar Jackson was having a good year last year until he got hurt, if he gets back on track, he’s won it before. Jonathan Taylor has to run for 2000 yards and the Colts need to be a top two AFC seed in the playoffs for him to have a puncher’s chance, like I said, it’s a QB’s award. I included Aaron Donald because he’s the best defensive player in the NFL, even if they didn’t give him that award last year.
Stafford won a Super Bowl but still doesn’t get the credit he deserves for being as good as he is sometimes. Now he has Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson so maybe he throws for 5000 yards and the Rams go 15-2, then he has a shot. If Wilson could navigate the Broncos to win the AFC West he would be in the conversation for sure, or at least he might finally get an MVP vote. Herbert is going to win this award someday, I don’t think this is someday, but it could be if he takes down the AFC West title and actually makes the playoffs.
My Pick: Josh Allen. It’s tough to bet against him, the Bills are stacked and they are going for it. The win the AFC East, probably easily, possible #1 seed and they are the Super Bowl favorite. It’s his award to lose at the moment.
Defensive Player of the Year
Top Contenders: DT Aaron Donald, OLB TJ Watt, CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Nick Bosa, DE Myles Garrett
Sleepers: DE Chandler Jones, S Minkah Fitzpatrick
TJ Watt tied the sack record last year and won this award, rightfully so. Just like the MVP award almost always goes to a QB you have to be either a big sack guy or a big interception guy to get noticed for Defensive Player of the Year. Aaron Donald is the best interior pass rusher in the league and is just a game wrecker so everyone recognizes how great he is. Bosa and Garrett are the other two guys who could put up a 20+ sack season and get in on the race. Jalen Ramsey is the best defensive back in the NFL and he changes the way offenses play, his biggest problem is Donald generally gets more of the credit for the Rams defense when they’re good.
Chandler Jones has been a major sack guy even when he was in Arizona and he was the only real pass rushing threat. Now he joins the Raiders who have Maxx Crosby so his sack numbers could go up. If the Raiders surprise in the AFC West with him going off, he could get in the conversation. Minkah Fitzpatrick is the major chess piece for the Steelers’ defense, if he could get out of Watt’s shadow, he could have a chance at this award.
My Pick: DE Nick Bosa. I think Bosa could have a huge year and could get to 20 sacks. If San Francisco’s defense is one of the best it will be because of Bosa.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Top Contenders: WR Drake London, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave, RB Breece Hall, RB Kenneth Walker III, WR George Pickens, RB James Cook
Sleepers: RB Brian Robinson, WR Romeo Doubs, RB Dameon Peirce
Well, there’s no QB who seems to be in the running. Kenny Pickett could steal the starting job in Pittsburgh but that’s still questionable. No one else is starting. Drake London should put up some numbers considering he has almost no competition for targets other than Kyle Pitts. Wilson and Olave will be important parts of their respective offenses but they won’t be the top guys. They are very talented so they could really break out. Breece Hall is still fighting Michael Carter for the starting job but he’s the better talent. Walker could have a big year if he gets the starting nod instead of Rashaad Penny once he’s fully healthy. Penny has had injury issues in his career so it’s completely possible. George Pickens has been the break out star of Steelers camp but for now his QB is Mitchell Trubisky and he has two WRs ahead of him in the pecking order in Pittsburgh at the moment, that hurts his chances. James Cook is going to be the pass catching back in an offense that loves to throw the ball.
Brian Robinson has a shot to be the starter in Washington because clearly Ron Rivera has reservations about Antonio Gibson. Robinson has serious breakout potential. Romeo Doubs might be the best WR in Green Bay, including Allen Lazard, he’s certainly the best rookie WR there. Peirce should be the top RB in Houston, I’m just not sure Houston’s offense can be good enough to get him the numbers he needs.
My Pick: Brian Robinson. This is the year to look at a dark horse because there’s no QB and the WR’s are so dependent on others and London is the only one that’s the #1 WR right now. Robinson goes for 1400 yards as the Commanders try to take the ball out of Carson Wentz’s hands. If you want a really out of the box sleeper, it’s OT Braxton Jones from the Bears. I think he’s legit but offensive lineman almost never win these awards. He would have to be dominant. *UPDATE* Brian Robinson was shot twice in his lower body yesterday, he’s out for the foreseeable future. It was apparently some sort of carjacking. He’s stable and his injuries are not life threatening, that’s really good to hear. Clearly, he’s probably out a while and his ROY chances are slim now. I’m still picking a sleeper, it’s Dameon Pierce.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Top Contenders: DE Aidan Hutchinson, OLB Travon Walker, CB Derek Stingley Jr, CB Sauce Gardner, OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, S Kyle Hamilton
Sleepers: S Jaquan Brisker, LB Nakobe Dean, S Nick Cross
Hutchinson feels like a pretty solid bet here considering he’s going to play a lot and there isn’t anyone stealing his thunder in Detroit. Not having a lot of help might hurt his stats but I think he’ll be just fine. Walker might lose out on sacks to Josh Allen so his numbers might be depressed. Stingley is fantastic and he’s already the top CB in Houston but it’s the Texans so he’s going to have to really shine to win an award. Gardner should also be a top CB but he too plays on a team that might not help him out much. Thibodeaux would have been in a good spot but he might miss some time early with a knee injury and that might set him back. Hamilton plays on the right defense but there’s a lot of competition for snaps in Baltimore, he might get eased in.
Brisker and Cross are in the same boat. They weren’t drafted high but they both walk in as day one starters at safety. Cross is on the better defense in Indy but Brisker might make more plays in Chicago with a young secondary around him. Dean is listed as the backup to TJ Edwards in Philadelphia but I just can’t see them leaving his talent on the bench.
My Pick: Aidan Hutchinson. He isn’t the flashiest pass rusher but he’s just relentless. He’s going to have 12-14 sacks and that should be enough to get him noticed. All bets are off if Nakobe Dean leads the NFL in tackles though.
NFC Playoffs
Division Winners
LA Rams
Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Philadelphia
Wild Card teams (there’s 3 now)
New Orleans
San Francisco
Minnesota
AFC Playoffs
Division Winners
Buffalo
Kansas City
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
Wild Card teams (yep, 3 here too)
LA Chargers
Baltimore
Las Vegas
(Yes, I left New England out of the playoffs. I like a lot about the team itself but I have zero confidence in the offensive coaching staff until I see them do something real. I have more confidence in the Iowa Hawkeye offensive play calling than I do in New England).
NFC Championship
LA Rams vs. Green Bay
AFC Championship
Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
Super Bowl
LA Rams vs. Buffalo
Super Bowl Champions
Buffalo Bills (it hurts to say it, I’m hoping it’s a jinx)
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