Indianapolis Colts
The Colts sent Carson Wentz packing after a year and made a trade for Matt Ryan. Ryan will be a much more impactful leader for this team as Wentz was never that guy. The passing game should be fine if they can get more out of the guys behind Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman had a breakout year last season but he’s the only sure thing for Matt Ryan. Parris Campbell has never stayed healthy in his career, TY Hilton is out the door, and Alec Pierce is a rookie. Pierce is a good-looking prospect but he’s never played an NFL snap. The rest of the depth chart at WR is pretty bleak. TE Mo Alie-Cox is likely to be a Ryan favorite. Ryan used his TEs in Atlanta quite well and Alie-Cox is a good player.
The running game will be the focus of the Colts offense as Jonathan Taylor proved to be the top RB in the league last year. He handled an impressive workload and was quite dominate most of the year. He’s not alone either, Nyheim Hines carved out a role for himself and the team even added Phillip Lindsay for depth. The offensive line has been a strength for years but they need to fill the hole at LT. Eric Fisher didn’t work and now they are hoping either Matt Pryor or rookie Bernhard Raimann can fill the spot. I’m still not convinced they won’t make a move (either a signing or trade) before the season starts. Quenton Nelson is still the top guard in the league. C Ryan Kelly is quite good when he’s healthy and RT Braden Smith is an underappreciated talent. Danny Pinter looks to replace Mark Glowinski at RG; he should be fine. This unit is almost always better than the sum of its parts, they hope that’s true again.
Matt Eberflus did such a great job coordinating the Colts defense for the past several years he got the Bears head coaching job. Now Gus Bradley comes in and will try to keep it going. The Colts defense has never really been built on one or two guys, it’s the collective effort of everyone. That doesn’t mean they don’t have a couple of truly elite guys. Up front they are built around DT DeForest Buckner. Buckner is a giant human entering his prime and mucking up everything for opponents in the middle of the field. He does everything well and they actually went out and got him some help. They traded for Yannick Ngakoue to start at DE. Ngakoue is a speed rusher on the edge and will give them a legitimate pass rusher outside. They are hoping Kwity Paye can build on a solid rookie year at the other end but Ngakoue has a more proven track record. Grover Stewart starts inside next to Buckner, he’s not flashy but he doesn’t need to be, he just needs to be solid. They don’t have a lot of depth up front.
They really only play two LBs and we will see if Bradley sticks with that plan. Shaquille Leonard (he doesn’t go by Darius anymore), is an elite player. He’s one of the best LBs in the NFL and he does everything exceptionally well. He’s everywhere all at once and that’s impossible to teach. Bobby Okereke is the other LB. He’s really good also and doesn’t get the credit because he plays with Leonard. If Bradley wants to use a third LB it’s probably Zaire Franklin, that’s his best choice.
The secondary lost CB Rock Ya-Sin when they traded him for Ngakoue in the offseason which is why they signed Stephon Gilmore in free agency. Gilmore isn’t going to be the guy he once was at this stage of his career but they need him to be solid. Kenny Moore II is a really good corner who’s best used in the slot so they need someone else to step up outside. They lost Khari Willis at safety to early retirement. They drafted Nick Cross and he’s likely to start opposite Justin Blackmon but the team did sign veteran Rodney McLeod. McLeod will add some depth and experience on the back end.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC in last year’s playoffs, and they went home quickly. They have Derrick Henry returning, assumably at full health. They bring back Ryan Tannehill at QB, not sure that’s a good thing. And they traded away AJ Brown, that’s a tough loss. Tannehill is a solid QB but the AFC is loaded with better QBs than him and it’s becoming a problem. With Matt Ryan in Indianapolis and Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, there’s a solid chance Tannehill’s the third best QB in his own division (and Houston’s Davis Mills had his moments last year, I’m just saying). Tannehill lost his one true weapon in the passing game when the Titans decided they didn’t want to pay AJ Brown. They picked up Robert Woods from the Rams and they drafted Treylon Burks to be their AJ Brown replacement. I love Treylon Burks as much as anyone but it’s going to take some time for him to ever approach being as good as Brown. The best they can hope for is that he stays on the field more than Brown. They picked up TE Austin Hooper, he’s fine, he’s not great. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a decent third WR, but they don’t have a fourth.
Derrick Henry is this offense, although they found out last year, they could still run the ball effectively with some street free agent RBs when he had a foot injury. Not to dismiss Henry’s effectiveness but D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard were fine. Foreman left but the team did draft Hassan Haskins from Michigan and he’s got size and speed. The offensive line is led by LT Taylor Lewan and C Ben Jones. Those guys have been around the block a time or two. Nate Davis is a solid vet at RG and they are hoping Dillon Radunz can lock down the RT spot. LG should be a competition between Aaron Brewer and Jamarco Jones although they may want Jones available at OT if needed.
Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry are two pretty good pass rushers for guys who play DE in a 3-4 defense. Simmons is just getting started as one of the best defensive linemen in football and Autry had a really good first year in Tennessee. Teair Tart isn’t the biggest nose tackle around but when you’re flanked by Simmons and Autry, no one really notices.
The pass rush is supposed to come from the OLB and while Harold Landry did his part with 12 sacks, big free agent signing Bud Dupree missed a large portion of the season (of course he did) and was underwhelming. They don’t have any other options opposite Landry so they need Dupree to live up to his contract. At ILB they traded for Zach Cunningham last year, he’s solid if he’s healthy but unless they rework his contract, he’s gone after this year. David Long Jr. is a decent player who’s cheap and he’s the only other guy they have inside. He’s not setting the world on fire but they could do worse. If you don’t believe me, look at their depth chart.
The secondary is led by FS Kevin Byard, he’s one of the best in the business. He got some help last year from Amani Hooker who stepped in at SS and they can be a good tandem. The CB spot has Kristian Fulton on one side, he had a good year and looks to build on it. They also have Elijah Molden who can be an elite nickel corner and they drafted Roger McCreary, a guy I really like who gives them some versatility. The wildcard is second-year man Caleb Farley. Farley has elite measurables, can be a fantastic cover man, but simply can’t stay healthy. He had a back issue coming out of the draft, tore his ACL early last year, and that was after sitting out his last college season during Covid. His potential could make this secondary elite, or his question marks can make this secondary a question mark.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The team has been rescued from the Urban Meyer debacle and they have an actual NFL caliber head coach and staff running things now. Doug Pederson comes in to give this team the professionalism it needs. His tenure in Philly went south after his Super Bowl win and it’s not inconceivable things eventually get weird between him and GM Trent Baalke but for now, it’s good. Trevor Lawrence is a true talent at QB and now he’ll be in a real NFL offense. The team spent some money (some of it may have been unwisely spent) to get Lawrence some help. Even if you don’t like Christian Kirk’s contract (and I don’t) he’s a productive WR who’s an upgrade over what they had. They also overpaid for Zay Jones, I’m not sure that one works out. Marvin Jones Jr. is a solid professional WR. It would be interesting if Pederson and his staff can figure out ways to use Laquan Treadwell and Laviska Shenault Jr. Evan Engram joins the TE group with Dan Arnold. Engram is usually banged up but the he’s still talented.
James Robinson is a good RB but he’s coming back from an Achilles injury. Travis Etienne missed all of last year with a foot injury. If these guys get back healthy, this running game could be quite good. The offensive line has some improvements and run blocking usually comes along faster when you have new pieces, that would be good for this offense. They re-signed Cam Robinson at LT, he’s not elite, but they clearly didn’t like their other options so he’s back. They did spend big money on RG Brandon Scherff, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the best guards in football. They seem to be hoping that putting Scherff next to Jawaan Taylor at RT might help Taylor develop. He’s a big guy with athleticism, he just hasn’t put it together yet. It looks like rookie Luke Fortner is going to take over at center pushing Tyler Shatley out to LG which should improve the line at two positions. This offense has some real NFL talent and now a real coaching staff, they should be much improved even if they aren’t elite.
The Jaguars’ defense is going through yet another transition and it includes some pretty big changes in the front seven. The three-man line now consists of holdovers Roy Robertson-Harris and DaVon Hamilton joined by free agent Folorunso Fatukasi, not a bunch of household names but they can be solid up front.
The LBs are really getting a makeover. Josh Allen has been their best pass rusher but they have moved him around from OLB to DE and never really let him settle in. Now he will be an OLB with #1 draft pick Travon Walker. Walker was a down lineman at Georgia but he’s an athletic freak so they are moving him outside and hoping he becomes the pass rusher they need opposite Allen (the one K’Lavon Chaisson has never become). They drafted Devin Lloyd and he’ll immediately step in at one ILB spot while free agent Foyesade Oluokun takes the other spot. They overpaid Oluokun (it’s a theme with this team because you have to overpay when you’re as bad as this franchise has been) but he’s an upgrade inside. He and Lloyd should really improve the LB play of this group.
The secondary returns largely intact. CBs Shaquill Griffin and Tyson Campbell will be the starters outside while free agent Darious Williams takes over in the slot. That’s a pretty good trio with some upside as Campbell gets better in his second year. Rayshawn Jenkins remains at FS while Andre Cisco should start at SS. They still have Andrew Wingard who’s a solid third safety. It wasn’t just Doug Pederson coming in that helps this team, it’s the coaches he hired. Defensive Coordinator Mike Caldwell has spent a few years in Tampa learning from Todd Bowles. They also have some good position coaches to develop the talent. This Jaguars team could really surprise us this year but I really think it may take another season before we see major results when it comes to winning games. This year is about development and getting better.
Houston Texans
It’s not hard to argue that the Texans have the worst roster in the NFL. Even if I like Davis Mills, and I actually do like Mills, he’s not saving this roster. I think he could be a very solid NFL QB if he had legitimate NFL talent around him, it’s hard to find here. WR Brandin Cooks is one of the most underappreciated players in the league. All he does is catch 1000 yards almost every year, he’s done it six times and for four different teams. He’s a legit NFL WR. Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Chris Moore, and Phillip Dorsett are not (I’m not buying Nico Collins until he does something of note in an actual NFL game). Hard to think it’s possible but the TE spot is worse. I like Brevin Jordan as your second TE but not when Pharoah Brown is your #1.
The running back depth chart is better than the TE spot but they don’t even have a Brandin Cooks level guy to lean on. Marlon Mack was a solid back in 2018 and 2019 for Indianapolis and then he got hurt, he’s never been the same. Rex Burkhead has run for more than 400 yards in a season once in his career, that was last year when Houston had no good backs either. The best chance for a decent running game comes from Dameon Pierce. He’s a power runner out of Florida but he’s never been a guy to carry the load. At the very least, he should be their goal line guy because he can run people over.
The offensive line has LT Laremy Tunsil, he’s highly paid and he’s good but he’s been working alone in Houston for too long and he needs some help. They drafted Kenyon Green in round one to play LG, he’s a talent, but he’s banged up at the moment. Justin Britt restarted his career after a knee injury almost ended it and played well enough to get an extension to be the starting center, he’s fine, he’s not great. The right side could be an adventure. Tytus Howard gets the RT job for now, he’s struggled there. Max Scharping was a starter at OG but they signed veteran AJ Cann from Jacksonville. If you’re importing 31-year-old offensive linemen from Jacksonville, you should rethink your strategy. That said, Cann will start, he’s better than Scharping.
If you think the offense is bad, wait until you see this defense. DE Jonathan Greenard had eight sacks last season and that makes him the star of the front seven. He might be the only long-term piece here (and by long-term, I mean he could still be there next season). Inside at DT they have Maliek Collins and Roy Lopez. They are both big guys inside who take up space but that’s about it. The team signed not one but two aging veteran DEs from Buffalo, I’m guessing so they don’t feel lonely. Jerry Hughes is the young one, he’s almost 34, while Mario Addison already is 34. Addison can still get to the QB a little (he had seven sacks last year) Hughes hasn’t been good at that for a while.
The LBs are steady but unspectacular and that’s the nicest thing I can say. MLB Christian Kirksey is a favorite of mine from his Hawkeye days but the reality is, he’s a soon-to-be 30-year-old LB who hasn’t played a full season in five years. If they get 12 good games out of him, it’s a win. Kamu Grugier-Hill is a veteran who racked up some tackles last year because someone had to get them. The team did draft Christian Harris in round three and they should give him as many snaps as he can handle as long as he’s healthy.
The secondary did get an influx of talent in the draft. CB Derek Stingley Jr steps in as the top CB and he’s got legitimate #1 CB potential for the next 7-10 years. He’s their best defensive player immediately and everything in the secondary will be built around him. They also drafted Jalen Pitre at safety and he gives them some nice versatility and can cover deep. The other starters should be veteran CB Steven Nelson and either Jonathan Owens or Eric Murray at safety. They also have Desmond King as their slot corner and he can play some outside corner or safety too. Having Lovie Smith take over as coach after one year of David Culley doesn’t instill confidence that this team knows what it wants to do. I think GM Nick Caserio wanted to hire Brian Flores but Flores’ lawsuit against the league ended any chance of that. Smith could be one and done too if this team is picking first next year and they want to go a different direction, again. Best case scenario for this team is Mills proves he’s a legitimate NFL QB and they get to use a high pick on Will Anderson from Alabama or Jalen Carter from Georgia. This team needs a defensive play maker.
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