Kansas City Chiefs
The AFC West has gotten a lot stronger this offseason while the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Mathieu but someone is going to have to beat them before I bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The offense lost a major piece with the trade of Hill but they brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdez-Scantling, and rookie Skyy Moore to join Travis Kelce. They may not have the one star like Hill but that’s a better overall WR group than they had last year. They still like Mecole Hardman too, I’ll have to see more from him before I believe in him. Kelce is the star and Mahomes’ favorite target but he’s going to love JuJu in the slot, MVS outside, and I think they will find Moore to be pretty good too.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire only played in ten games last year and they need more out of him. They did sign Ronald Jones from Tampa Bay but he’s not having a great camp. Rookie Isiah Pacheco looks like he’s taking the backup job. The offensive line was much improved last season with Orlando Brown Jr at LT, Joe Thuney at LG, and rookies Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith at center and RG. Brown wants a new contract but he’s going to have to settle for playing on the franchise tag this year or sit out. They better hope he plays because they don’t have the OT depth to cover him. It’s already crapshoot at RT between Andrew Wylie, Lucas Niang, and potentially rookie Darian Kinnard (but that doesn’t look promising at the moment).
The defense was pretty rough last season. Frank Clark has never been the pass rusher they are paying him to be but last year he played 14 games and had 4.5 sacks, that’s awful. Chris Jones was playing out of position at DE out of necessity until they traded for Melvin Ingram. Jones is better inside at DT and they need to leave him there. They drafted DE George Karlaftis, and while he’s not a flashy speed rusher, he’s an effective guy off the edge who never quits. They also signed veteran Carlos Dunlop. Derrick Nnadi is quietly an effective DT next to Jones.
The Chiefs will use mostly two LBs with five defensive backs which is good because Nick Bolton and Willie Gay are the only two really good LBs they have. They do have undersized Jermaine Carter and oversized rookie Leo Chenal as depth. Justin Reid was signed to take over at safety for Mathieu. He doesn’t have the same name recognition but he’s a talented player (and apparently he’s a kicker too). Juan Thornhill lines up at the other safety spot, he’s solid. CB L’Jarius Snead stepped up last year, they have Rashad Fenton on the other side, they could use an upgrade. Rookie first round pick Trent McDuffie is really good and he should excel as the slot corner at the very least. He could become their top CB in the near future.
Los Angeles Chargers
The biggest obstacle the Chargers have now is overcoming Brandon Staley making more questionable coaching decisions. They added enough talent on defense to compete with the best teams in the AFC and they have very few questions on their roster now. QB Justin Herbert looks like a superstar that can take this franchise to a Super Bowl and he has a lot of talent around him on offense. They re-signed WR Mike Williams and Keenan Allen is as reliable as ever. It would help if Josh Palmer or Jalen Guyton or anyone could add a deep speed element to the passing game but it’s not required. Gerald Everett is a solid pickup at TE and he should give them a reliable target over the middle.
The running game has Austin Ekeler, who is one of the most dynamic runner/receiver combos in the league. He has had to carry a lot of the load for this team so they drafted Isaiah Spiller, a guy who can really help them in the running game. The offensive line found a gem in LT Rashawn Slater last year and free agent pickups C Corey Lindsley and LG Matt Feiler were excellent. They drafted RG Zion Johnson in round one this year, leaving only the RT spot a question mark. It wasn’t great last year because Bryan Bulaga was injured and Storm Norton isn’t a starter. This year it looks like they will try Trey Pipkins and Storm Norton again for now. Keep on eye on Jamaree Salyer, I like him, he can play. They team may look for a stop-gap veteran if they don’t like their options. This team is going for broke and if they think the RT spot is a problem, they should address it.
The reason I say this team is going for it this year is their additions on defense. They spent a ton of money to sign CB JC Jackson and they traded to get Khalil Mack from the Bears. You don’t trade for a 31-year-old pass rusher and spend a fortune on a top CB if you don’t think you’re close to competing for a Super Bowl. The veteran additions didn’t stop there. The team’s run defense was terrible last year so they got defensive linemen Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson (they join Jerry Tillery or Morgan Fox up front) to beef up the middle of the defense and hopefully make their ILBs more effective.
Mack joins Joey Bosa as their edge rushers and they could be quite the dynamic duo. Mack isn’t getting any younger and Bosa’s had some consistency issues year-to-year. Hopefully, being a tandem will bring out the best in them. Drue Tranquill and Kenneth Murray Jr are the two young guys they hope can step up at ILB but they clearly aren’t sure about them. They signed veterans Kyle Van Noy and Troy Reeder to push the youngsters and they also have Nick Niemann, a guy they seem to like.
The secondary has their new #1 CB in JC Jackson but they also need Asante Samuel Jr to step up and it would help if Bryce Callahan can be productive in the slot. Derwin James is a star if he can stay healthy and Nassir Adderley is better than he gets credit for. The team also drafted JT Woods because Brandon Staley likes the idea of using three safeties and being able to move James around like a chess piece. I like the fact that Staley is an aggressive coach but it’s a fine line between being aggressive and being reckless. With a few smarter decisions, this team is a force to be reckoned with.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders won 10 games and made the playoffs last year with an interim coach after the Jon Gruden debacle and the Henry Ruggs situation happened during the season. Now they have a new coach, Josh McDaniels, a new top WR, Devante Adams, and some actual help on defense, hello Chandler Jones. Derek Carr got a new contract and is reunited with his buddy Adams, giving him his first legitimate #1 WR. The passing game should be in good shape with Adams, Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller. Adams is arguably the best WR in football, Renfrow is a master in the slot and one of the most reliable receivers in the league. Waller is a monster at TE when he’s healthy. It would be good if Keelan Cole or Demarcus Robinson could become a threat on the outside opposite Adams. Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake have the running game in solid hands.
The biggest questions for the offense come on the line. LT Kolton Miller has become a very good player at the most important position but he needs some help. John Simpson is slated to start at LG. Andre James will be trying to fend off Dylan Parham, assuming Parham doesn’t win the RG job which belongs to some guy named Lester Cotton, Sr. For now, Alex Leatherwood is penciled in at RT although Brandon Parker is an option there. I would even consider Thayer Mumford (another rookie) over Leatherwood. Leatherwood would probably be better off at RG than RT but someone has to show they can handle RT to move him. This is all to say, Josh McDaniels will have his hands full trying to figure out his best lineup on the offensive line and that could lead to some early issues if they can’t figure it out. I would go Miller, Simpson, Parham, Leatherwood and Parker but that’s just my quick assessment.
The defense improved last year and they went out and got Chandler Jones to join Maxx Crosby as their pass rushing duo and they can build the defense off of them. Clelin Ferrell is a bust at DE from a few years ago but Crosby was a steal later in that same draft. He and Jones can be one of the best pass rushing duos in the league. Jones was an expensive free agent but he’s worth it if they can get this defense to move at least close to the top 10 in the league. Jonathan Hankins and Bilal Nichols are the DTs who will be tasked at plugging up the middle, keeping the LBs clean and allowing Jones and Crosby to wreak havoc.
The LBs still leave a bit to be desired but Denzel Perryman came over last season in a trade and did what he’s always done, he tackled everything in sight. They brought in Jayon Brown from Tennessee and they have Divine Deablo who is a converted safety in his second year. All three guys are undersized but bring speed to the position so they clearly have a type. It’s also why Hankins and Nichols are key up front, these LBs aren’t built to take on big blockers.
The secondary needs Trayvon Mullen Jr. to get healthy or they’re in trouble. The got Rock Ya-Sin in a trade but beyond those two the CB position is paper thin. Mullen is coming off an injury, they need him back. SS Jonathan Abram is in a make-or-break year, he needs to prove he’s more than a one-dimensional box safety. FS Tre’von Moehrig looks like a keeper early in his career.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos made the biggest move in the division with their trade for Russell Wilson and they paired it with a new coaching staff. One of the reasons I’m picking them last in the division is because of all that change. Wilson, in a new offense, a first-time head coach, a first-time defensive coordinator, a first-time offensive coordinator, that’s a lot of newness in a division as stacked as this one. I think Wilson will find this offense to his liking with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert O (I’m not spelling out his last name) as his pass catchers. They will miss the injured Tim Patrick. Having Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon to hand off to should also make him feel pretty good. It’s been a while since he had that reliable of a running game. He’ll miss DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but his pass catching group should be solid.
Wilson played behind some rough offensive lines the last few years in Seattle; this Denver group should be better than that. It will be interesting how it shakes out with a new offensive system and they moved on from Mike Munchak as the offensive line coach, he did an excellent job. Will this unit take to the new offense or not? LT Garrett Bolles owes his career to Munchak, he turned him around from a rough start to his career. They signed Billy Turner to be their RT, he’s not great but he played in this offense in Green Bay last year so he should be fine. The interior of LG Dalton Risner, C Lloyd Cushenberry, and RG Quinn Meinerz can be good if they take to the new scheme.
The Denver defense has a solid three-man line with DJ Jones, Dre’Mont Jones, and DeShawn Williams but they don’t scare anyone. DJ Jones was a solid pickup in free agency after some good years in San Francisco. McTelvin Agim is a young guy they hope comes along and Mike Purcell is a veteran who knows this defense.
They signed Alex Singleton at LB to give them a dimension they didn’t have, he has some coverage skills their other LBs don’t possess. He’ll play while Jonas Griffith is sidelined. They need Josey Jewell to come back strong after missing almost all of last season because he’s the high-level tackler at ILB. OLB Bradley Chubb has been good when he’s on the field but he has trouble staying healthy. It seems to be an every other year sort of issue so they can hope he keeps up his streak of playing most games in even years. They spent an awful lot of money on Randy Gregory to be Chubb’s new pass rushing partner. He’s also not the most reliable player but he’s good when he’s on the field. Malik Reed has proven to be a solid third pass rusher and they drafted Nik Bonitto; they may need both of them if Chubb and Gregory can’t stay on the field.
The Broncos’ secondary is the strength of the defense. Patrick Surtain II proved to be outstanding as a rookie and he’s quickly becoming one of the better CBs in the league. FS Justin Simmons is near the top of his position too and he’s one of the best ballhawks in the league. Those two alone make the group elite. SS Kareem Jackson is 34 but he’s still getting it done. CB Ronald Darby is a good veteran opposite Surtain and the team signed K’Waun Williams from the 49ers to be their nickel corner. Caden Sterns is a nice young safety who’s coming along nicely too.
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