While the Senior Bowl and the combine can have some effect on the NFL draft, neither has the effect that free agency does. And this year it was a combination of free agency and the massive trades that have happened to start the off season. Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Devante Adams and Tyreek Hill have all been traded and each one of those trades can have repercussions early in the draft. We still have two teams that could make QB trades, Seattle and Carolina, otherwise they become major players for QBs early in the draft. Denver, Cleveland, Miami and Las Vegas all gave up picks in the first round of this draft and Washington’s trade for Carson Wentz probably takes them out of the early QB market. On the other side, the Falcons traded away Matt Ryan (he’s filling Wentz’s spot in Indy now) and while they didn’t get a high draft pick for him, they may have to spend their own high pick to find his long-term replacement.
I’m going to attempt this mock draft for about the 14th time since free agency started and hope that nothing major happens before I’m done (the Saints and Eagles did their weird trade when I was almost finished with this two rounder). Oh yeah, I forgot to mention, some guy named Tom Brady unretired, Amari Cooper got traded to Cleveland, Von Miller signed in Buffalo, and the Rams signed Allen Robinson. I may have forgotten a free agent signing or two.
Finally, I don’t think I remember a draft that was more unsettled just a few weeks before. It’s still not settled who goes first, maybe Hutchinson, maybe an OT, I’m not convinced Jacksonville knows yet. Second overall is even a bigger crapshoot if Hutchinson does go first. Even the “consensus” top players have no consensus with the teams. Kyle Hamilton is either the best safety prospect since Sean Taylor or he falls like Derwin James to the middle teens. Kayvon Thibodeaux is either the next Khalil Mack or he doesn’t care about football and no one should take him. This QB class might have four guys go in the first round (spoiler alert…I have four in this first round mock draft) but none of them should even be first round picks (in my actual opinion). Well let’s get started before the Jaguars trade the first pick to the Cowboys for Tyron Smith and Ezekiel Elliott (that’s not an actual thing but given this off season, nothing is off the table).
Round 1
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14): Aidan Hutchinson DE Michigan
There’s this idea that when you’re as bad as Jacksonville is as a franchise you may have to overspend to entice free agents. It’s a bad idea and Jacksonville went for it, with gusto. They overspent on WR Christian Kirk, LB Foyesade Oluokun and probably on Brandon Scherff (he’s an excellent player but he hasn’t played a full season in five years). They went the drunken sailor route and that’s going to change their draft needs. The one big one was franchise tagging LT Cam Robinson again. Bringing back Robinson and Jawaan Taylor at RT, along with having Walker Little around probably takes them out of the OT market at #1 (although none of those guys should preclude them from taking an OT). That means Aidan Hutchinson is the most likely player for this spot. They do need a pass rusher opposite Josh Allen and Hutchinson would be a good complementary piece. He’s not going to lead the league in sacks but he’s solid as a rock and Jacksonville could use a little of that. The team will be better under Doug Pederson and getting a guy with the work ethic and skill of Hutchinson can only help them on defense.
2. Detroit Lions (3-13-1): Kyle Hamilton SS Notre Dame
The Lions have been the quietest team in free agency with their only pickup of note being WR DJ Chark on a one-year deal. They cut Trey Flowers at DE and while they could use some help at DE it’s not a crying need. Certainly, if they could, the team would trade down and pick up more draft capital as they are at the start of a long rebuild. There are rumbling that they may take a QB, most likely Malik Willis, but that seems like a rumor designed to elicit trade offers and not something they will actually do. The team needs don’t necessarily matchup well with the top of this draft. They have Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell at OT and the DE’s not named Aidan Hutchinson aren’t necessarily their type of guys. Kyle Hamilton might be the best prospect in this draft overall even if the reports of his slower 40 time at his pro day are true. Just watch him play and you can see the major playmaker he’s going to be. The Lions need a talent upgrade almost everywhere on defense and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn would have a nice piece to build the secondary around in Hamilton. When your team needs almost everything, just take the best player on the board, that’s Hamilton.
3. Houston Texans (4-12): Evan Neal OT Alabama
The Texans haven’t been overly active in free agency other than adding a slew of RBs and a couple of fringe players here and there. They signed Marlon Mack, Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale to add to Rex Burkhead at RB, Mack would be my pick to win that job but it will be a competition. The team needs help almost everywhere and they picked up more draft capital when they dealt Deshaun Watson to Cleveland. They have a long rebuild ahead and for now it looks like they want to give QB Davis Mills a real chance to be their guy at least for this year. He had a solid second half of the season last year as a rookie but he needs more help, especially up front. Laremy Tunsil is set at LT and they have some bodies on the inside but they need an upgrade at RT. Neal played all over the line at Alabama including RT and he would be a massive upgrade. He can be a road grader for the running game and help keep Mills upright and give him time to look downfield to Brandin Cooks (they actually gave Cooks an extension so I don’t think they will trade him, although I could be wrong about that). Also, if the Texans decide to trade Tunsil because his trade value is too high to pass up, Neal can slide over and be their LT.
4. New York Jets (4-13): Travon Walker DE Georgia
The Jets made some nice moves to improve the offensive line (Laken Tomlinson), get a lot better at TE (CJ Uzomah, Tyler Conklin) and improve the secondary (S Jordan Whitehead, CB DJ Reed). They still need plenty of help and my guess is Robert Saleh would like to start up front on defense. He should get Carl Lawson back from injury at DE and that will help but it’s just a start. Kayvon Thibodeaux is a consideration here but Lawson is already an undersized DE, the Jets don’t need another smaller speed rusher. Walker is 6’5 275 lbs. and can play all over the line. His versatility would give Saleh someone more like DeForest Buckner or Arik Armstead, two guys who excelled in his defense in San Francisco. Walker has been climbing the draft boards since teams have gotten a better look at him, and his impressive showing at the combine solidified his rapid ascension. He was a bit overlooked on a stacked Georgia defense but teams are really figuring him out now.
5. New York Giants (4-13): Ikem Ekwonu OT North Carolina St.
The Giants hired Brian Daboll with the hopes he can fix their offense, more specifically QB Daniel Jones. The team has used free agency to upgrade the interior of the offensive line with Jon Feliciano, Max Garcia, and Mark Glowinski. With Andrew Thomas at LT that leaves only the RT spot where Matt Peart has failed to seize the job. Ekwonu is an excellent prospect and while he may be more of a LT prospect, so was Penei Sewell last year and he figured out the transition eventually. Ekwonu is an excellent prospect and if they lined him up with Glowinski on the right side it might really improve the running lanes and make Saquon Barkley a lot better player. Ekwonu is a mauler in the run game and Glowinski cleared holes for Jonathan Taylor in Indy last season. The Giants have talent at WR if they can stay healthy (Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard) and get their head on straight (Kadarius Toney). They signed Ricky Seals-Jones at TE, maybe he’ll at least be more available than Evan Engram, and the team has to give Saquon Barkley another shot before they give up on him. All of this, including evaluating Daniel Jones, would be much easier if the offensive line was finally fixed.
6. Carolina Panthers (5-12): Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh
The Panthers struck out on the QB front this off season when Deshaun Watson chose Cleveland and Russell Wilson went to Denver and Matt Ryan when to Indianapolis and, well you get the picture. Right now, Sam Darnold is still the starter and I have a really hard time believing Matt Rhule, and more importantly owner David Tepper, is okay with that idea. Tepper wanted a star but short of that at the very least he wants hope. Darnold doesn’t inspire much hope and at least a new shiny first-round pick brings hope. Pickett is more likely to be the next Kirk Cousins and not the next Tom Brady but you can win with a Cousins-like QB. Pickett is the QB most ready to step in as a starter in year-one and he would quickly relegate Darnold to either the backup role or out the door. The team needs a lot of help on the offensive line and while Charles Cross would solve their LT problem, he doesn’t buy Matt Rhule extra time and some good will like Pickett would. Rhule and Pickett do have a history together too. Once upon a time when Matt Rhule was coaching Temple, Kenny Pickett committed to him as a high school recruit. Rhule moved on to Baylor and Pickett ended up at Pitt but they do know each other from way back.
7. New York Giants (from Chicago): Kayvon Thibodeaux DE/OLB Oregon
The Giants brought in Don “Wink” Martindale to run their defense under Brian Daboll. Martindale has been running the Ravens defense and they use a multitude of looks. One common denominator is that Martindale likes to be aggressive rushing the passer. Azeez Ojulari had a good rookie year last year and Quincy Roche is a good rotational OLB but Thibodeaux would seriously juice up their pass rush. He’s perfectly suited for Martindale’s defense and he while he was initially thought to be a top 2 or 3 pick, he’s slipped a little. There are some who question his desire but I think that’s overblown. He is a guy who cares about more than just football but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t care about football. He’s an elite athlete at pass rusher and yes, he sometimes takes plays off, plenty of DEs do from time to time. What he brings from a pass rushing standpoint far out weights the bad plays. He and Ojulari in Martindale’s defense is a frightening thought for opposing offenses.
8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10): Garrett Wilson WR Ohio St.
The Falcons moved on from Matt Ryan and it would make sense to take a QB I’m not sure this team sees it that way. This QB class isn’t great and while Malik Willis has upside, I don’t see them wanting to wait for his development. They signed Marcus Mariota to a very reasonable contract and I think they wait for a QB. Right now, if they lined up on offense their top three WRs are Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate, and Damiere Byrd, that’s awful. If you ask five scouts who the best WR in this class is you will probably get at least four different answers but one of them will be Garrett Wilson. He’s not a physically imposing guy like a Drake London and he’s not the vertical threat you would think he would be with his speed. However, what he is, is an excellent inside guy who is dynamite with the ball in his hands after the catch. You can use him across the middle and as a gadget play guy. It seems counterintuitive but the Falcons already have their big bodied, physical receiver in Kyle Pitts, the TE they took last year. Pitts isn’t your typical interior guy, he’s better off the line. Wilson would be a nice inside complement to Pitts outside for whomever the Falcons eventually settle on at QB (I doubt it’s Mariota long-term).
9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Malik Willis QB Liberty
This is the first pick the Seahawks picked up in the Russell Wilson trade and they use it to get their QB of the future, and by future, I mean two or three years from now. Willis has tantalizing skills like fantastic arm strength and elite running skills, however, he’s nowhere near ready to start in the NFL. The team has Drew Lock but I have a feeling after (or during) the draft both Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo will find new homes, either through trades or finally being released. Seattle will find a better stop-gap than Lock and Willis can sit and develop. I doubt John Schneider and Pete Carroll plan on drafting this high again any time soon so they grab a QB now and try to compete with a veteran next year (my money would be on Mayfield). I will say, I would pass on Willis this high and if I were the Seahawks, I would take Charles Cross. The LT spot is a problem even if they re-sign Duane Brown, which looks less and less likely to happen. Brown wasn’t good last year and he’s 36. Cross would be good long-term solution to their LT issue.
10. New York Jets (from Seattle): Charles Cross OT Mississippi St.
The Jets could very easily take a WR or CB here and that would be completely justified. They did sign DJ Reed at CB and re-signed Braxton Berrios at WR to go with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore. I don’t think they will give up on Denzel Mims just yet either. They have Mekhi Becton at LT, which is Cross’ natural position but Mike LaFleur comes from the Shanahan coaching style and they love athletic linemen on offense. Cross is a fantastic athlete who is a great pass protector already because he played in a pass happy offense in college. He’s excellent against edge rushers. There’s a perception he isn’t a strong run blocker but he was never really asked to do it in two years as a starter at Mississippi St. The Jets could take his athleticism and mold him as a run blocker at RT, at least they know he doesn’t have any bad habits, you can’t form bad habits when you never do it in the first place.
11. Washington Commanders (7-10): Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati
The Commanders are the next team to see if they can fix Carson Wentz, at least they didn’t trade a first-round pick for him. That means they won’t be looking for a QB here and they can fill another need. Their defense should be better than it was last year but it would help if they get some help in the secondary instead of putting it all on the front four. William Jackson III will be 30 and he’s overpaid so he won’t be around forever. Gardner is a self-made star who went from a lightly recruited athlete to an elite CB in his time at Cincinnati. He’s long, wiry and tough as nails. He doesn’t back down and he has a short memory, all great traits for a CB. He seems to have moved ahead of Derek Stingley as the best CB on the board (I slightly disagree with this assessment). The Commanders also need a safety and would love to see Kyle Hamilton fall this far but that doesn’t look like it’s happening. They are putting a lot on the Carson Wentz thing working out and it would help if their defense could give him a short field whenever possible.
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-9): Derek Stingley Jr. CB LSU
The Vikings have plenty of talent on the offensive side for new head coach Kevin O’Connell to work with and they signed Za’Darius Smith to help the pass rush. That leaves CB and maybe safety as the biggest needs on this team. They re-signed Patrick Peterson to team with Cam Dantzler but Peterson will be 32 next season. Stingley has been a top draft prospect since he stepped on the field as a true freshman at LSU three years ago. He’s had a tough couple of years the last two but he’s still an excellent prospect. LSU was a bit of a trainwreck the last two seasons after winning the national title Stingley’s freshman year. He is still an elite athlete with great size and perhaps putting him in Minnesota with another former LSU star, Peterson, will help Stingley find his footing again. He could be a massive steal even at 12th overall.
13. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Jermaine Johnson DE Florida St
The Texans have a second first-round pick from Cleveland from the Deshaun Watson trade and they really just need to look to the best player available. This team needs as much talent as possible and Johnson is a fantastic talent. He’s an elite edge rusher and this team definitely could use one. Jonathan Greenard led the team last season with eight sacks, the next leading guy returning to the team had three. Lovie Smith knows he needs to get to the QB and Johnson does that quite well. He also happens to be a good all-around defender so he will play the run too. Get talent, that has to be the aim of the Texans with all the extra draft capital they got from the Watson trade. They need help everywhere.
14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9): Tyler Linderbaum C Iowa
The Ravens are a team that doesn’t reach and usually goes with their board. Here I think it’s possible their board might just fill a major need for them. The offensive line wasn’t good last year and they lost C Bradley Bozeman in free agency. The have to get better up front to help Lamar Jackson and re-establish their running game. Linderbaum is an undersized center but he doesn’t play like one. He’s strong as an ox, physical on the interior, and quick as can be. He’s arguably the best center prospect in the last decade (maybe longer) and the Ravens did pretty good with the last interior lineman they had from Iowa, Marshall Yanda. Linderbaum is a day-one starter for whatever team drafts him. The only concern has been a foot injury from the bowl game that has kept him from working out. If the foot injury concerns come out fine, he may not even be here at this point.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami): Trent McDuffie CB Washington
Darius Slay had a resurgent season last year but he’s 31 and the team doesn’t have much behind him at CB. McDuffie is a versatile guy who can play in any system and he can play inside and out. He can play outside and allow Avonte Maddux to stay in the slot or he can move inside when needed. The Eagles have a chance to really enhance their roster with their two first-round picks and McDuffie would fill a huge need in the secondary. They made a trade with the Saints and sent one of their first-round picks to New Orleans and got back a pick next year. They are going to give Jalen Hurts the year to prove he’s their QB of the future but if he stumbles, they are set up to make a move for a QB in next year’s draft.
16. New Orleans Saints (from Philly/Indy): Matt Corral QB Ole Miss
The Saints made a deal to pick up two of the Eagles first round picks in this draft for one of theirs this year, a first rounder next year and some other picks. It seems like a strange pickup unless they have a few things they really want since they only moved up two spots and then also got another pick in the same area. The Saints have two really big needs, LT and QB. They could now package 16 and 19 in this draft to move up for one of those or grab who they want here. Unless they are sure Trevor Penning is their guy at LT they are out of luck at OT, but they might like Matt Corral enough to take him. He’s a gamer. He can throw it around and they didn’t commit long-term to Jameis Winston. Winston buys them time to develop Corral if he needs it but he’s not an impediment to Corral taking the job as soon as he’s ready. They made this move with something in mind and I don’t think you give up a first rounder next year for just anyone. Although, it is the Saints and they once traded a future first round pick to move up for Marcus Davenport, so I can’t count them out of anything. I wouldn’t have traded a future first rounder to move up for Matt Corral but I have spent a week trying to figure out the Saints thinking on this and I still have no idea.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8): Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa
If Penning, or any other good OT, makes it to the Chargers at 17, they will send their fastest player sprinting to the podium with the name on the card. The team signed DTs Austin Johnson and Sebastian Joseph-Day to address their interior defensive line needs. They signed JC Jackson to fill a major hole at CB and they traded for Khalil Mack to be the edge rusher they need opposite Joey Bosa. That leaves the offensive line as the giant glaring weakness of the team. Bryan Bulaga wasn’t the answer last season at RT because he was hurt. Storm Norton filled in and he’s not the answer either. The team has to either draft a guy or move Matt Feiler to RT from LG and that weakens the left side of the line. Justin Herbert is ready to emerge as a force but he can’t do it laying on the ground. Penning is a gigantic human at 6’7 320+ lbs. He comes from a small school but he doesn’t have to be great, he just needs to not be awful to be a major upgrade. Spencer Brown came from Northern Iowa last season and ended up the starter in Buffalo at RT, he was solid and that’s all the Chargers need. Penning also shouldn’t be the last offensive lineman this team drafts, they can upgrade at RG too.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Jordan Davis DT Georgia
There are a lot of mock drafts calling for the Eagles to draft a WR or a LB in round one. I think after signing Zach Pascal and drafting WRs in the first round the last two years they might want to give Pascal, Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins and some others a chance before replacing them with a third first round WR. The team also signed Hassan Reddick and Kyzir White at LB. If they want their LBs to be better, get them some help up front. Fletcher Cox was released and re-signed to a one-year deal because he was overpaid and he’ll be 32 next season. Javon Hargrave is pushing 30 and the team lost Hassan Ridgeway in free agency. Davis blew the doors off the combine with his ridiculous athletic showing. A man that big shouldn’t move the way he does. A lot of drafts have him skyrocketing towards the top ten, I’m not buying it. Davis lost about 20 lbs. from his playing weight during the season to really show off at the combine. The problem is can he be effective at that weight? The answer is probably not. He is a major run-stuffing force when he’s at 360 lbs. but he can’t play as many snaps. If he plays at 340, he might be able to play more but can he be effective? I think those questions keep him around this range in the draft. He can be excellent as a rotational player early and hopefully find his best physical shape for his NFL career.
19. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia): Chris Olave WR Ohio St.
The Saints need to replace Terron Armstead at LT after he signed with Miami as a free agent but they passed on Penning and there’s a drop off after him. They could count on James Hurst full-time but that seems like a bad idea. They could sign a stopgap guy like Eric Fisher and grab a developmental guy later in the draft (probably a better idea than reaching for one here). What they can get is a legit WR to play opposite Michael Thomas, assuming he actually plays this season. The Saints have spent far too much time trying to develop guys like Tre’Quan Smith or Marquez Calloway, it’s time to take the most polished guy in the draft. Chris Olave broke WR records at Ohio St, that’s impressive. He’s the best route-runner in the class and he would bring something to the table Michael Thomas doesn’t, speed. Jameis Winston is likely the starter next year and he can throw a nice deep ball but he needs a guy he can count on. Olave is nothing if not reliable. He would also give Matt Corral a guy to develop with for next few years.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1): Devonte Wyatt DT Georgia
There’s a possibility that Wyatt and his Georgia teammate Davis swap spots here, the Eagles could like Wyatt better as a Fletcher Cox replacement. Many mock drafts have the Steelers taking a QB or a CB but I’m not sold on that move. They signed Mitchell Trubisky so they don’t have to reach for a QB and unless Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis falls this far, I think they pass at QB. They could use a CB but I think Wyatt is a better prospect than Andrew Booth Jr or Kaiir Elam at this point. Cameron Heyward will be 33, Tyson Alualu is 34, and even Stephon Tuitt is 29. They need new blood up front and Wyatt would be a great fit for them. He can play anywhere along their three-man front and excel at any of the spots. He’s a dynamic player who could learn a lot from their veteran guys while spelling them this year and then taking over.
21. New England Patriots (10-7): Andrew Booth Jr. CB Clemson
The Patriots have two glaring needs after free agency, offensive guard and CB. For now, the top three CBs are Malcolm Butler, Jalen Mills, and Jonathan Jones. Jones is coming off an injury, Butler is coming out of retirement and Mills is terrible. Booth is a man-to-man CB and the Patriots know how to play to their guys’ strengths. Booth would be the most talented CB on the roster from day one and I think he starts almost immediately (I have zero confidence in Butler or Mills). The team could opt for an OG like Zion Johnson out of Boston College or Kenyon Green from Texas A&M, and either would immediately start too but you can find starting offensive guards later in the draft. I like Booth as a top four CB in this draft and I think there’s a drop off after him. The Patriots traded for Devante Parker from the Dolphins so he comes in as the big WR they need, he’s not great but he’s better than N’Keal Harry.
22. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas): Drake London WR USC
This is the first-round pick the Packers picked up in the Adams trade so it’s only fitting they go get a guy to replace him as their #1 WR. He won’t be Adams but London brings a ton of talent to Green Bay and he’s an upgrade over Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. London has elite size and contested-catch ability. He is 6’4 220 lbs. and he’s a great athlete. He’s not going to be a deep threat or take the top off the defense with speed but Aaron Rodgers can throw it up to him and he’ll go get it. He’ll be a menace in the red zone and while he shouldn’t be the only WR they take in the draft; he’ll be an immediate starter for the Packers.
23. Arizona Cardinals (11-6): Zion Johnson OG Boston College
The Cardinals have a young QB in Kyler Murray but they don’t have an offensive line that will age with him. This season LG Justin Pugh will be 32, C Rodney Hudson will be 33, RT Kelvin Beachem will also be 33, LT DJ Humphries will be 29 by the end of the season and even top back up Justin Murray will be 29 this year. That leaves the newly signed RG Will Hernandez at 26 as the only young guy and he’s been mostly a disappointment the last few years which is why he was available. Zion Johnson is a beast and has Pro Bowl potential at OG. He has played OT and he even tried out center during Senior Bowl week but his best position is guard. This team needs an infusion of youth on the line and Johnson can be that guy. That said, Steve Keim probably screws this up and drafts a WR to replace Christian Kirk and placate Kyler Murray.
24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5): Devin Lloyd LB Utah
If one of the top DTs falls here, I can see the Cowboys jumping on it but they are gone at this point. It’s possible they take George Karlaftis at DE but I like the Lloyd fit better. This team has been through the ringer at LB. Jaylon Smith fell out of favor quickly after signing a big extension and was cut last season. Leighton Vander Esch has tons of talent but he has a persistent back injury. Micah Parsons was a steal in last year’s draft but he’s so talented as a pass rusher it’s a waste to just consistently line him up at LB. The great thing about Lloyd is that he’s a multi-talented guy too and they could mix and match him with Parsons. Lloyd has some pass rushing skills while also being a great run defender. He proved this last season he can stay on the field for all three downs and that’s the type of player that would help the Cowboys defense in so many ways.
25. Buffalo Bills (11-6): Kaiir Elam CB Florida
The Bills look like a juggernaut. They added Jamison Crowder to replace Cole Beasley as their slot receiver. They signed Von Miller to replace Jerry Hughes as their top pass rusher and they still have Josh Allen leading the way. Tre’Davious White is coming back from an injury and the team lost Levi Wallace in free agency so they need some help at CB. Elam is a bit of a forgotten man and while there is a bit of a drop off from the top four CBs to the next tier, Elam has legit starter potential. I put him here because he’s a better scheme fit for the Bills than Roger McCreary. Elam has elite size and he’s a really good zone coverage CB. He would be a huge upgrade opposite White and could be the final piece to the puzzle on Buffalo’s defense.
26. Tennessee Titans (12-5): Nakobe Dean LB Georgia
The Titans cut Janoris Jenkins at CB but they drafted Caleb Farley last year and now they have to hope he can come back from his injury and become the starter they need. They traded for Robert Woods as the replacement for Julio Jones and they re-signed Harold Landry at OLB. They signed Austin Hooper to fill the hole at TE too. That leaves OG as a weakness but they would have to really love Kenyon Green to pass on Dean and he is way too good to pass up. The team needs some help at ILB because David Long Jr isn’t overly productive and I’m not sure what they have in Zach Cunningham, who they got from Houston last year. Dean is a playmaking freak that could help solidify the defense in the middle. He also happens to be the best player available at this point.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4): Kenyon Green OG Texas A&M
This would be a dream come true for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. They have one major hole on offense and it’s at LG. Green is a beast and he’s played everywhere on the line except center and he would immediately slot in at LG in place of the retired Ali Marpet. There are some that rate him as the best interior offensive lineman in this draft (I would disagree with that assessment) but either way, he’s a day one starter filling a major need. He also offers some versatility to swing out to OT in a pinch since the team doesn’t have a ton of depth on the line. The Buccaneers will need to look for some help on the defensive line if they don’t want to have to bring back Ndamukong Suh again. Green played everywhere but center in college so he can be a backup in case of injury at OT, something this team doesn’t have much of right now.
28. Green Bay Packers (13-4): George Karlaftis DE/OLB Purdue
The Packers go with the best available player here even though he might be an odd fit. They run a 3-4 defense and Karlaftis is a 4-3 end but he can play standing up and he would add some pass rush they desperately need. Preston Smith and Rashan Gary are set to be their edge guys but they lost Za’Darius Smith and they have no depth. Karlaftis is a power rusher so he brings different set of skills but the Packers defense needs more pass rushing help and Karlaftis is the best guy available.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Miami/SF): Treylon Burks WR Arkansas
The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and while they did sign Marquez Valdez-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster there’s a lot of production to be replaced. Valdez-Scantling is a speedy deep threat and Smith-Schuster is a good slot receiver, but their passing game approach is going to have to evolve and Burks would bring the run-after-the-catch skills the others don’t have. He’s a big WR who is built like Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown and that is something the Chiefs don’t have. The team does still have Mecole Hardman but relying on him seems like a gamble. The team hasn’t been very active in free agency so the need to take advantage of the extra draft capital they have.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5): David Ojabo DE Michigan
With an extra first-round pick the Chiefs can take a bit of a gamble here on a guy with enormous upside who also might not play next season. Ojabo is an elite athlete with great pass rushing potential but he was always going to be developmental guy early and likely only a pass rushing specialist in year one. Then he tore his Achilles during his pro day and his draft stock has taken a tumble. He is almost assuredly going to sit out next season rehabbing, although Cam Akers came back to the Rams in six months. It looks like Ojabo will fall out of round one but I’m not so sure. A team like the Chiefs, with two first-round picks can take a chance he gets back for the end of the season or simply wait it out and give him the year to heal. The advantage to taking him at the end of the first round instead of in the second or third is a first-round contract comes with a fifth-year option so if you lose his first year, you still have four more years of control. He has the talent; you may just have to wait a while to see it.
31. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7): Roger McCreary CB Auburn
The Bengals used free agency to attack their biggest weakness and they did it quite well. They signed OG Alex Cappa, C Ted Karras and most importantly RT La’el Collins. They could still use one more upgrade inside (Karras could play guard if they find another center) but they also have Jackson Carman who could be fine at OG. Either way, their offensive line is much improved. Now on to their second biggest issue, cornerback. Chidobe Awuzie isn’t great but he’s not terrible and Mike Hilton is a good slot corner but Eli Apple should only be the stopgap on the other side. McCreary is a fantastic athlete with great skills and the temperament to be a top-flight CB. He isn’t going to back down and even though he isn’t the biggest guy, he doesn’t shy away from competing for the ball. He also happens to be one of the best prospects left on the board. The Bengals should seriously consider taking multiple CBs in this draft and hoping they hit on a few, they need more than just one.
32. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams): Sam Howell QB North Carolina
I just feel like the Lions will take a shot at a QB here because they will get an extra year on the contract for a 1st round pick. It’s hard to decipher who the QB they might like actually is but it could be Desmond Ridder or it could be Howell. Howell seems to be a Dan Campbell sort of guy. He’s undersized but gritty, never backs down, and plays with an all-out aggressive style. Howell is not afraid to take chances down the field and he would bring a different dynamic than Jared Goff. Goff won’t roll over and let him take the job without a fight, which is good, because Howell may not be ready immediately. He isn’t the biggest guy, he’s not the fastest guy, and he’s not the flashiest guy but he’s tough and that will go a long way with Campbell.
Round 2
33. Jacksonville: Daxton Hill S Michigan
Jacksonville needs to just keep adding talent and they find it again at Michigan. Hill is a playmaking safety with great coverage skills and he can play in slot. They have some nice pieces in the secondary but you can never have too many cover guys.
34. Detroit: Jameson Williams WR Alabama
Williams would have gone much sooner except he tore his ACL in the National Championship game in January. That’s a tough injury for a skinny WR who relies heavily on his elite speed. It’s that elite speed the Lions need. DJ Chark is coming back from an injury, Josh Reynolds has bounced around for a reason, and Amon-Ra St. Brown needs some help. St. Brown can dominate underneath; they need someone to take the top off the defense for Sam Howell or whomever they get at QB.
35. New York Jets: Tariq Woolen CB UT-San Antonio
The Jets needs CB help but they missed out on the top guys. They go for the guy with incredible upside in Woolen. He’s only played CB for two years after starting his career as a WR and brings elite size and athleticism to the position. He’s 6’3 205 lbs., you can’t teach that.
36. New York Giants: Travis Jones NT UConn
The Giants need to be better up front on defense. They signed Justin Ellis as a free agent but he’ll be 32 by the end of the year. They need a younger NT and Jones is perfectly suited for the job. He’s big, 6’4 325 lbs., and he can really clog up the middle.
37. Houston: Lewis Cine S Georgia
The Texans lost their best player in their secondary, Justin Reid, and they are pretty thin at the position. Cine played on an elite defense at Georgia, this will be a step down for him but he’s an upgrade for them.
38. New York Jets: Jahan Dotson WR Penn St.
The Jets have Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Braxton Berrios as their top WR. They need a true #1. Davis has never proven to be one and I would like Moore playing inside with Berrios coming off the bench. Dotson is an elite route-runner with the speed and separation to be a true #1 for Zach Wilson.
39. Chicago Bears (6-11): Bernhard Raimann OT Central Michigan
The Bears could go a number of different ways here. They could grab a WR like David Bell, a defensive lineman like Perrion Winfrey or Arnold Ebiketie, or even a safety like Jaquan Brisker but I think they go up front. They need to get better protection for Justin Fields and while Raimann is a bit of a project, he would still be one of their better offensive linemen pretty quickly. Raimann has LT potential which would allow Teven Jenkins to slide back over to RT. Raimann is fairly new to football but he’s got prototypical size, the athleticism to play the left side and he’s just scratching the surface of his potential. In the right environment, he could be a high-level LT for years to come.
40. Seattle: Daniel Faalele OT Minnesota
The Seahawks have the worst OT situation in the NFL. Stone Forsythe, Jake Curhan, and Greg Eiland are the names on the depth chart right now. It doesn’t look like Duane Brown will be re-signing which wouldn’t be much of a loss considering how he played last year. Then you look at what they have and it’s no wonder Russell Wilson wanted out so bad. Faalele is going to take some time to develop but he’ll be better than what they have right now.
41. Seattle: Darrian Kinnard OL Kentucky
Kinnard played OT at Kentucky but he’s seen as a guy who will move inside. He might have to stay outside at OT for a year if he goes to Seattle. After that he could move inside to guard, Gabe Jackson is on the wrong side of 30. If there was a pure OT worth taking here, I would absolutely give Seattle two OTs in a row, they need them that bad. Instead, they just take the two best linemen left.
42. Indianapolis Colts (9-8): David Bell WR Purdue
The Colts traded Carson Wentz after one year and went out and traded for Matt Ryan to replace him. You don’t do that unless you plan to compete and this team can compete with a few tweaks here and there. They need a LT but they will probably go the veteran stopgap at this point. They made some moves on defense to sure up a few things so that leaves WR as a major area of need. TY Hilton is a free agent (and they shouldn’t bring him back) and Parris Campbell has never stayed healthy leaving Michael Pittman Jr as the only reliable WR. Bell is an Indianapolis high school legend and would be very comfortable coming home. He’s a brilliant technician, he has a variety of moves and he would make Matt Ryan’s life easier. Ryan has always been a precision passer with a high IQ and having a great route-runner like Bell would be a perfect match. The Colts can compete with the Titans for the division if they hit on a few key rookies with their draft picks. If Bell ends up in a situation like this, he would be my dark horse pick for Rookie of the Year.
43. Atlanta: Logan Hall DE Houston
Hall is a beast at 6’6 283 lbs. and he’s perfectly built to be an end in a 3-4 defense, and that’s what Dean Pees runs for Atlanta. It’s about time they get Grady Jarrett some legit help up front and Hall is an underrated player. He mostly played inside at Houston and he’s really better suited for the 5-technique spot. He’s a good one.
44. Cleveland Browns (8-9): Perrion Winfrey DT Oklahoma
The Browns gave up a lot to go get Deshaun Watson and they believe he’s the missing piece to put this team over the top. I think they need more help at WR and they certainly need more help on the defensive line. There are some veterans they could bring in at each position but it looks like they will wait until after the draft to give another look at Jadeveon Clowney, Odell Beckham Jr, or even someone like Ndamukong Suh. Winfrey has been a bit overshadowed given the depth of the defensive line prospects in this draft and that’s just the Georgia guys. Winfrey had a great year at Oklahoma and then he went to the Senior Bowl and was a complete menace. He’s a gap penetrating tackle who would truly enjoy playing with a guy like Myles Garrett who takes a bunch of the offensive linemen’s attention. He would thrive in this situation.
45. Baltimore: Kyler Gordon CB Washington
The Ravens were pretty beat up at CB last year with both Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters dealing with injuries. The team has no real depth to speak of and Peters is 29 and has bounced around plenty. Gordon is affectionately known as “the other Washington CB” since he’s not Trent McDuffie, but he’s a good player too. He’s a good athlete and has starter potential in the NFL.
46. Minnesota: Jaquan Brisker S Penn St.
The Vikings double up with picks for their secondary. As much as they need a CB, they probably need a safety just as much. Harrison Smith is 33 and he can’t play forever and beyond Smith and Camryn Bynum there is no depth at all. Brisker could play either safety spot and gives them flexibility moving forward. For now, he’s just an excellent back-end player, something they need more of.
47. Washington: Chad Muma LB Wyoming
The Commanders could go a number of directions but I think they continue to focus on their underachieving defense from last season. They added Jamin Davis last year and this year they give him Chad Muma as a running mate. Muma is a three-down backer who can cover and play the run. He has versatility to play multiple positions at LB so he’s a nice fit next to Davis.
48. Chicago: Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan
Moore is the underrated guy at WR coming out of a smaller school. He’s been extremely productive and he is a perfectly built slot receiver. He’s quick as can be and he would be a fantastic addition to the offense for Justin Fields. His ability to get open over the middle would make it much easier for the young QB.
49. New Orleans: Braxton Jones OT Southern Utah
This is my shot in the dark pick. The Saints needs a LT of the future and this is the team that once took a shot on a skinny LT out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff named Terron Armstead. Armstead just left in free agency because he’s really good and priced himself out of New Orleans. Jones is long, lean and underdeveloped but he has many traits you look for in a LT. This is early for him but I’m taking a shot (mostly because I don’t really like Nicolas Petit-Frere from OSU that much).
50. Kansas City: Jalen Pitre S Baylor
Kansas City decided to sign Justin Reid at safety and let Tyrann Mathieu leave in free agency. Juan Thornhill is the other safety but he’s in the last year of his deal. Pitre is a versatile defender who would make a great third safety and give the Chiefs some protection against losing Thornhill next year.
51. Philadelphia: Tyler Smith OG Tulsa
Brandon Brooks retired, Isaac Seumalo shouldn’t be a starter, and eventually Landon Dickerson will have to move to center to replace Jason Kelce who’s 35 years old. They need help inside. Smith is a beast and he brings a nasty demeanor, he should fit right in.
52. Pittsburgh: Boye Mafe OLB Minnesota
The Steelers really like Alex Highsmith and he does a nice job but they need more juice opposite TJ Watt and Mafe is raw but he has loads of potential. He’s highly athletic and with some refinement, he will be a really good pass rusher.
53. Green Bay: Trey McBride TE Colorado St.
Green Bay needs as many new options in the passing game as possible with Devante Adams in Vegas. Robert Tonyan is coming off an injury and Mercedes Lewis is going to be 38. McBride is great in the passing game and he can line up all over.
54. New England: Jamaree Salyer OG Georgia
The Patriots traded away Shaq Mason because they didn’t want to pay him and that was a year after they let Joe Thuney walk in free agency. They don’t want to spend a lot at OG and there’s nothing cheaper than a rookie. Salyer is a mauler inside and he would be huge in the running game.
55. Arizona: George Pickens WR Georgia
AJ Green is gone, Christian Kirk is gone, and they need someone to play opposite DeAndre Hopkins on the outside so Rondale Moore can play inside. Pickens barely played last year due to an ACL tear but he looked just fine running at the combine. He has size and speed.
56. Dallas: DeMarvin Leal DT Texas A&M
Leal came into the year as a top prospect but had an uneven season. He’s a bit of a tweener not really being DT size but not quick enough for DE. He should play inside and Dallas needs plenty of help there. This might be high for him; he seems to be falling.
57. Buffalo: Breece Hall RB Iowa St
It took until the 57th pick for me to have a RB go but here it is. The Bills have almost everything they need but as good as Devin Singletary was down the stretch last year, he’s not a work horse back. Hall has the size and skill to be a full-time guy but also works just fine in a duo. Zack Moss fell off a cliff last year and the Bills need someone to step in. Hall should be the first RB off the board.
58. Atlanta: Desmond Ridder QB Cincinnati
It’s tough to think Ridder won’t go before this but for now this is where I’m slotting him. There are a few teams that could take a chance on him (Washington, Philly) but they don’t pull the trigger. Atlanta would be wise to take a shot and they may do it with their earlier 2nd round pick but for now it’s here. Ridder was a four-year starter and he’s a superior athlete but he has some issues with accuracy and decision making, that holds him back. Maybe Arthur Smith can fix him.
59. Green Bay: Christian Harris LB Alabama
De’Vondre Campbell broke out last year at ILB and they re-signed him but Krys Barnes is the other ILB and I don’t think he’s quite as established. Harris is a multi-talented guy from Alabama so you know he knows how to play. He can help in the middle and on special teams.
60. Tampa Bay: Phidarian Mathis DL Alabama
The team needs to replace Ndamukong Suh and Mathis is a versatile defensive lineman who can play anywhere up front. His time at Alabama will serve him well as they generally cross-train their lineman. Tampa needs to get younger at DE for sure.
61. San Francisco 49ers (10-7): Cole Strange OL Chattanooga
The 49ers lost Laken Tomlinson in free agency and Daniel Brunskill is one of those guys who plays just well enough you want to replace him all the time. They can hope Aaron Banks steps up at one OG position but C Alex Mack will be 37 in November too. Strange is from a small school but he showed great versatility throughout his career and looked good at the Senior Bowl. He will likely start out as a guard but the 49ers could develop him as Mack’s eventual replacement too. He fits the profile of a guy Kyle Shanahan would like because he’s long, lean and athletic, the perfect zone scheme lineman. The 49ers could also go with a WR like Christian Watson to give them a deep threat on the outside but Shanahan will likely prioritize the line.
62. Kansas City: Cameron Thomas DE San Diego St.
The Chiefs double up at DE after taking Ojabo in round one. Ojabo was about potential, Thomas should help right away. He isn’t quite as dynamic of an athlete but he understands the position better. He can help right away because he can play on the end, set an edge in the run game, and even rush from the inside if the team wants to play a game with him and Chris Jones. Also, Frank Clark is getting awfully expensive, two DEs isn’t a bad draft strategy.
63. Cincinnati: Arnold Ebiketie DE Penn St.
Trey Hendrickson balled out with 14 sacks last year and Sam Hubbard had a respectable 7.5. The defense was good but it can be better with more pressure. The secondary got their guy in round one, here’s the guy to rev up the pass rush. Ebiketie needs to be a designated pass rusher to start his career and that’s perfect, it’s exactly what the Bengals need him to do.
64. Denver Broncos (7-10): Nik Bonitto OLB Oklahoma
The Broncos are taking their first pick here because they traded away a bunch of draft picks for Russell Wilson. The offense should be pretty solid if they can get their offensive line to play fairly well, there’s talent there to work with. Wilson should like his WRs just fine and while they traded away Noah Fant in the Wilson trade, they still have Albert O who is probably the best pass catching TE Wilson has had since Jimmy Graham. Javonte Williams should be a star at RB. The defense should see some changes in scheme as the coaching staff transitions. Randy Gregory is probably better suited for a four-man front as is new DT DJ Jones. Bonitto is a good edge rusher who can be more of an OLB but play in multiple fronts. They need some depth there and he’s good value here. Gregory and Bradley Chubb have had their issues staying on the field so hedging their bets a bit with Bonitto isn’t a bad idea for this defense.
The Hott Read 