Tampa Bay returns 22 starters from their offense and defense from last year’s Super Bowl Championship team and they should win this division fairly easily. They added Giovani Bernard at RB and they get OJ Howard back at TE, the rich get richer. The Saints actually won the division last year but Drew Brees retired and Jameis Winston is there new QB. Winston or won’t have Michael Thomas at WR to start the season, that’s a blow. The offense could struggle to move the ball without him. Atlanta is hoping Arthur Smith can reinvigorate Matt Ryan at QB and juice up the Falcons offense but I’m not sure Jesus Christ himself could resurrect the Falcons defense. Carolina hopes Matt Rhule can keep building the Panthers while Joe Brady fixes Sam Darnold to be the QB of the present and the future. Tampa Bay is the sure thing in this division as long as Tom Brady is healthy. The rest of the division has far too many question marks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs probably have the deepest group of skill position players in the NFL. They have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Antonio Brown and Tyler Johnson at WR, they have Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn at RB. Finally, they have Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard at TE. It’s an embarrassment of riches and it’s made possible by the fact that players want to play with Tom Brady (Gronk, Antonio Brown) and the fact that Brady doesn’t eat up as much cap space as most elite QBs. The team does have two issues with depth, one is at QB. If Brady goes down, this team is sunk. Blaine Gabbert is the backup and Kyle Trask is most likely the third guy.
The offensive line is the other place where depth is an issue. The starters do quite well but if anyone goes down, they are in trouble. LT Donovan Smith is just a guy, he isn’t elite and he commits too many penalties. However, he was excellent in the playoffs last season and was penalty free. LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen, and RG Alex Cappa are solid but unspectacular. They are aided by the fact that Brady runs the offense so efficiently and gets the ball out quickly. The one star on the line is RT Tristan Wirfs. He had a fantastic rookie season and he should only get better with more experience. The one hope for any type of depth is a rookie out of Notre Dame, Robert Hainsey. He played tackle in college and looks like a guard in the pros but he might just have to fill in anywhere they need him.
The defense also returns everyone and that’s a good thing except some of these guys are aging in the front seven. DL Ndamukong Suh is 34, DL William Gholston is 30, OLB Jason Pierre-Paul is 32, and Lavonte David is 31. They also don’t have a lot of depth in the front seven. Suh and Gholston are joined up front by NT Vita Vea, he’s awesome but he’s coming off an injury. The only depth is Steve McLendon and he’s 35. Lavonte David pairs with the incredible Devin White at ILB but their only depth is Kevin Minter. He’s 30 and a serious downgrade athletically. Pierre-Paul is still getting it done and the team re-signed Shaq Barrett but they had to draft Joe Tryon to find some pass rushing depth. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles does a fantastic job but they are walking a fine line on defense.
Bowles’ specialty is the secondary and he’s made this group greater than the sum of its parts. He doesn’t have a traditional #1 CB so he uses Sean Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean in ways to create the best matchups. All three are bigger CBs and have their strengths, Bowles understands them better than anyone. At safety, he has Antoine Winfield Jr., who stepped in as a rookie last year, and became Bowles’ ultimate chess piece. Winfield moves all over and just makes plays. He’s not the biggest or fastest guy out there but he understands offenses and has elite instincts. FS Jordan Whitehead is another guy that Bowles has coached up and made into an effective defender. Whitehead is never going to be mentioned with the best safeties in the league but he gets what Bowles wants him to do and he does it.
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill filled in well for Drew Brees last season but he lost the starting QB job to Jameis Winston. Hill will return to his jack-of-all-trades position and be weapon for Sean Payton to use all over the offense. WR Michael Thomas had a year to forget last season and had ankle surgery late in the off season meaning he will miss the beginning of the regular season. Without Thomas the Saints probably have the worst WR corps in the league. Tre’Quan Smith is the most accomplished player they have and that’s just sad. He’s never caught more than 34 passes in a season. They signed Chris Hogan just before training camp and he’s surpassed 34 catches in a season before but he’ll be 34 years old this year and he hasn’t been a useful WR in a couple of seasons. They have high hopes for Marquez Callaway who has mostly been a special teams’ guy but has looked good in camp. Winston has arm strength that Brees hadn’t had for many years so look for Payton to open things up a bit and go down field to get some space for the running game. They have high hopes for TE Adam Trautman but he’s banged up to start the year.
The good news is the team does still have Alvin Kamara at RB and a fantastic offensive line. Kamara is the do-everything weapon and he has to be the featured part of this offense with Thomas sidelined and Brees retired. They also really like his new backup Tony Jones Jr. The offensive line is great with LT Terron Armstead, LG Andrus Peat, C Erik McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz and RT Ryan Ramczyk. The best news is that Armstead is 30 and he’s the oldest one of them all. No one else is over 28 this season.
The defense has been pretty good for the last few years since Dennis Allen came in and took over as coordinator but his coaching acumen will be tested this year. Cameron Jordan’s play fell off last year as wasn’t the pass rusher he usually is but he is aging and defenses know to focus on him. It won’t get any easier this year with Trey Hendrickson leaving for Cincinnati and the team needing former first-rounder Marcus Davenport to live up to his billing. He’s been all potential and hardly any production for three years, he’s looked great in camp but he needs to show it on the field. They signed Tanoh Kpassagnon from Kansas City but that’s not going to help and they drafted Payton Turner in the first round. Turner is a project at this point. At least they have some potential at DE, DT is pretty bleak. David Onyemata would have started but he’s suspended for the first six games of the year. For now, it’s guys like Shy Tuttle, Montravius Adams and Malcolm Roach fighting for the starting jobs. Yeah, I don’t know who they are either.
Demario Davis returns as the lynchpin of the defense at MLB. He is 32 so there is some worry that his play may drop off at some point but so far that hasn’t happened. The team traded for Kwon Alexander last season, he played fine and then tore his Achilles. He’s back and is already recovered from the injury so he should be good to go. There two veterans are looking for one of the young guys to step up at the other spot. They have Zack Baun, Kaden Ellis and rookie Pete Werner, all looking for playing time.
The secondary is led by CB Marshon Lattimore, he wasn’t as good last year as he has been his first few years but he’s 25 and should bounce back. He’s a legit #1 CB when he’s on his game. The other CB spot was questionable and it became downright terrible when veteran Patrick Robinson announced his retirement a week into training camp. The best hope is that rookie Paulson Adebo steps up big otherwise it’s between Ken Crawley or recently signed veteran Desmond Trufant, Brian Poole is on IR. Marcus Williams is a rising safety but he’s on a one-year deal, they have to hope it doesn’t affect his play. Malcolm Jenkins is an aging veteran they hope can squeeze one more year out for them. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is the third safety/nickel back, he’s solid. This defense has some obvious holes that Dennis Allen is going to have to find creative solutions to fill.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers still aren’t in great shape offensively with a line that looks really rough, a QB who has to prove he wasn’t the problem in his last stop, and their best offensive weapon coming off a major injury. Sam Darnold had a miserable experience with the Jets and the Panthers hope Joe Brady has enough magic to undo everything Adam Gase did to him. Darnold has talent, the question is whether or not they can get his head straight, if they do, he has some weapons to work with. RB Christian McCaffrey is one of the most talented offensive weapons in football. He’s coming off an injury but given his dedication to working out and his youth, he should bounce back. WR DJ Moore looks like a legitimate deep threat and he would have been even better last year if Teddy Bridgewater would have looked to throw more than 15 yards down the field at any time. Also, it helps Moore that he’s not working alone anymore. Robbie Anderson is a serious threat opposite him and he already has chemistry with Darnold, they played together in New York. Rookie Terrace Marshall Jr is the third guy in what is a very thin WR group. They hope free agent TE Dan Arnold can prove to be the pass catching threat Ian Thomas has never developed into.
The problem on offense is going to be up front. The team re-signed Taylor Moton to a big deal and he’ll hold down the RT spot. That’s about the only sure thing. They hope Matt Paradis can rebound from a rough year last year and man the pivot. He’s 31 so he’s no spring chicken but he should be alright if he can stay healthy. The guard positions are up in the air. It could be Pat Elflein, John Miller, Dennis Daley or rookie Deonte Brown at any of the spots. That’s not even the worst of it. At LT the team is looking at journeyman Cam Erving, maybe Trent Scott or if they are really desperate, rookie Brady Christensen. They traded away Greg Little which really says how far Greg Little has fallen. I fear this line may undermine Darnold’s comeback and McCaffrey’s rebound year. They should be scouring the waiver wire for offensive line pickups.
The Panthers’ defense is extremely young. There are no starters over the age of 30 to start the season and only DT DaQuan Jones will reach that age by the end of the year. Jones comes over from Tennessee as a free agent to add a big body inside next to Derrick Brown. The defense needs to stop the run and Brown and Jones are some big boys inside. Bravvion Roy started last year but he’s short and squatty while Jones is much longer. Roy will fight off Daviyon Nixon for the backup snaps inside. DE Brian Burns is the star pass rusher and the team needs him to build on his nine sacks from last year. It would help if he could get some help from the other side. Morgan Fox should start opposite Burns but Yetur Gross-Matos and Marquis Haynes will try to steal the job.
The team needed an upgrade at LB and they signed Haason Reddick from Arizona, he played for Matt Rhule at Temple. Reddick was a good pass rusher last year for the Cardinals but he’ll be asked to be a more traditional 4-3 LB here. I would think defensive coordinator Phil Snow would look for ways to use Reddick’s natural pass rush abilities. Shaq Thompson returns at the other OLB spot and he’s been a steady tackler for years and a guy they can count on. At MLB it was supposed to be Denzel Perryman, then they traded him to Las Vegas and so it’s Jermaine Carter’s job starting the season.
The secondary has rookie CB Jaycee Horn at one spot, he’s the bright spot. SS Jeremy Chinn is a second-year guy who is basically a glorified LB, CB Donte Jackson is getting one more shot to show he’s not a bust and FS Juston Burris has never actually been a full-time starter in six years in the league (for good reason). Horn has all the components to be a true #1 CB including the ego (I don’t mean that negatively, you have to have it to be a top CB). Chinn is a playmaker if deployed correctly and I think Rhule and Snow understand what to do with him. Jackson and Burris are place holders because there isn’t any depth and they spent their draft capital elsewhere. The defense has potential, it just doesn’t have a lot of production yet.
Atlanta Falcons
If you look at the Falcons starting offense, they don’t look terrible if you go two WRs, two TEs, one RB. If you look beyond that, yikes. Matt Ryan is aging but he’s still a competent QB and with his contract the Falcons are locked in for at least a couple more years unless he calls it quits. In the passing game the team traded Julio Jones, that hurts but Calvin Ridley is ready to move up to the #1 spot. Jones’ age and injury history were going to catch up to him sooner or later (my bet is on sooner). Ridley has serious potential in the top spot, he’s a top playmaker. Russell Gage is now the #2 guy, and while I would prefer he was the #3 guy, that’s not happening on this roster. There is no one of note beyond those two at WR. Tajee Sharpe had a decent season about five years ago and maybe rookie Frank Darby becomes something. They seem to like Olamide Zaccheaus, I don’t know who he is. TE Kyle Pitts was the fourth pick in the draft and while he could line up at WR in some formations, when you move him outside to receiver, you take away the massive mismatch he creates against LBs and safeties in the middle of the field. The two TE set with Pitts and Hayden Hurst is their best group and new coach Arthur Smith is well-versed in two TE sets but it can limit your offense if you can’t go three wide with Pitts as your TE.
The running game was pretty rough last season with Todd Gurley a shell of his former self and no one else to pick up the slack. They signed Mike Davis to a reasonable contract after his great year replacing the injured Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. Davis does most things well but isn’t spectacular at any one thing. He’ll be more consistent than anything they have had in the past couple of years. The offensive line has to be healthy. LT Jake Matthews is fine, he’s not great, he’s just fine. The LG spot is still pretty up in air and could go a few different directions. Matt Hennessey steps in for the departed Alex Mack at center and they need him to fortify that spot. The right side of the line is where they really need guys to get healthy. RG Chris Lindstrom could be great, he just has to play if he wants that to happened. Kaleb McGary is the RT if he can get on the field. The ceiling for those guys is really high, if they play. They have a couple of rookies who can compete on the inside, Drew Dalman and Jalen Mayfield. Dalman is a center by trade but could be a guard, Mayfield was a tackle at Michigan who could play LG or he could have to step in for McGary if he isn’t healthy. New head coach Arthur Smith has his work cut out for him with this offense, he was used to working with a more stable line unit in Tennessee.
Smith talked Dean Pees out of retirement to come back and take over this defense. Pees has had some great defenses in his career in Baltimore, New England and Tennessee but it’s going to take a miracle to rescue this unit. Given what he’s done before the Falcons will likely transition to a 3-4, that’s only going to make this harder. The three-man line should be Grady Jarrett, Tyeler Davidson, and Jonathan Bullard, that’s underwhelming to say the least. Jarrett has been a playmaker in his career but all three of these guys seem miscast in a 3-4. Backup Marlon Davidson might be the guy best suited for the new alignment given his time at Auburn next to Derrick Brown. They should be fine at ILB with Deion Jones and Foye Oluokun, they are tackling machines. The pass rushing OLB spots are a mixed bag. Dante Fowler Jr. is built for it but after seven years in the NFL and only one season with double digits sacks it’s time to realize he is what he is and stop expecting more. The team is hoping for a breakout by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner, Steven Means, or Brandon Copeland at the other spot, that’s a big ask.
The secondary is led by AJ Terrell who was solid as a rookie and while it’s hard to call him a #1 CB, he is a good starting corner and nice place to start. Fabien Moreau comes over from Washington and looks like the other starter and that says more about Isaiah Oliver’s struggles than Moreau’s accomplishments. Oliver will be the third CB with Kendall Sheffield on IR to start the year. Neither is a great choice but for now there is no choice. The Falcons signed Duron Harmon to be one safety. After years of being a backup in New England Harmon was the starter in Detroit last season and then the Lions decided to rid themselves of as much former New England stuff as they could so Harmon comes to Atlanta. He’s not great but the Falcons have done worse. They also signed veteran Erik Harris from Las Vegas and if you’re taking castoffs from the Lions and Raiders secondaries, you really have to ask yourself what you’re doing. They did draft Richie Grant out of Central Florida and I have to say, I would take him over either starter. It’s going to be a rough year for the Falcons defense and they are not likely to put the offense in very advantageous positions, things could be ugly in Atlanta this year.
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