The Bills went 13-3 last season, finished first in the division, ended the Patriots hold on the AFC East title and they return essentially everyone this year. Every team in the division besides the Bills should improve but the Bills have quite a lead going into the season so they should repeat. The Dolphins had 10 wins and that was with some significant issues with their offensive line and their QB play being inconsistent. If Tua can be consistent without Ryan Fitzpatrick around to bail him out they will be good, if he struggles, they struggle. The Patriots had seven wins and while that’s hugely disappointing after two decades of success, my take was that it might have been Bill Belichick best coaching job. The Patriots roster was trash last season, free agent defections (not just Brady), Covid opt outs, and injuries decimated the roster. The Patriots spent money like drunken sailors in the off season and they get lots of key people back. They will be in the playoff hunt this year, if they have a QB. The Jets are still at the bottom but at least now they aren’t anchored to it by Adam Gase. Robert Saleh, a new coaching staff, and a shiny new QB Zack Wilson gives them hope. They won’t be great but they won’t be embarrassing either.
Buffalo Bills
The offense is under the direction of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll who didn’t get a head coaching job in the off season. His loss is Buffalo’s gain. QB Josh Allen raised his game last year and was a legit MVP candidate. He gets his entire offense back around him with the exception of WR John Brown but the Bills signed veteran Emmanuel Sanders to replace him. They also really like second-year WR Gabriel Davis so the passing offense shouldn’t miss a beat. Stefon Diggs was nearly unstoppable last year and he and Allen should scare the hell out of the rest of the league. Diggs is in his prime and he’s one the best in the league. They would like TE Dawson Knox to take a step forward and be more productive in the passing game but that would be more of a luxury not a necessity.
The offensive line returns intact with a couple of solid developmental additions from the draft to help with depth. They aren’t flashy up front but they are tough. The running game could be a bit more dynamic but Devin Singletary and Zack Moss can be a good combination. Moss is coming off an ankle injury but they like the size and power he gives them. They did add Matt Breida as a free agent and while he had a rough year in Miami last season, he’s a better veteran option for depth than they had before.
The defense is awesome with Sean McDermott and coordinator Leslie Frazier being a great duo when it comes to putting a defense together. It’s not a team built on star power but they have a few guys who have emerged. The defensive line is aging on the edges with starting DEs Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison being 33 and 34 this year, respectively. The team drafted Greg Rousseau and Carlos Basham in rounds one and two this year and are hoping they team with last year’s second-round pick AJ Epenesa to add some youth to the outside. Epenesa has had a great training camp and preseason and Rousseau has looked good too. Ed Oliver had a solid year at DT last year and has one spot locked down. Star Lotulelei returns from a Covid opt out year and regains his starting role. Vernon Butler becomes solid depth. If they squeeze some production from the aging guys the Bills should be fine up front.
At LB, Tremaine Edmunds has become a force and Matt Milano has proven to be a great running mate for him. AJ Klein is a solid veteran and while there isn’t great depth, they have good talent. The secondary is led by Tre’Davious White who has become a legit #1 CB and two solid veteran safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. They have Levi Wallace as their #2 CB and while they would like to upgrade, they have yet to do so. Taron Johnson is veteran third guy who is dependable. They have some unproven depth in the secondary and that might be the only weak spot of this defense if there is one. The Bills should repeat as division champs but it won’t be as easy as it was last season.
New England Patriots
The Patriots passing offense saw a massive overhaul of its pass catchers through free agency this off season. WRs Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne were added along with TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. The only guy who looks like a holdover is Jakobi Meyers. Now Bill Belichick has made the decision to turn these new offensive toys over to rookie QB Mac Jones. Jones played better than Cam Newton in the preseason, that’s not really debatable and Newton wasn’t very good in the passing game last year either. I will say, Newton was given no help last year and much of what was wrong on offense wasn’t his fault. Granted, if his WR group had been made up of Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison, I’m not sure it would have helped with some of the passes he threw last year. The Patriots were ready to move on and it is what is best for everyone. Now Josh McDaniels can run the offense he ran with Brady and he has a QB who’s skill set fits it.
The offensive line should be better if they stay a little healthier. LT Isaiah Wynn has had his share of injury issues but this year the Patriots brought back Trent Brown. Brown is slated to be the RT but if Wynn’s injury problems continue, at least the Patriots can slide Brown over and cover the spot. They lost Joe Thuney but with Brown around Michael Onwenu can slide from OT inside to guard. The team also brought back Ted Karras, he’s an option at OG and also a better option at center if David Andrews has injury issues. If they can get a healthy season out of a line made up of LT Wynn, LG Onwenu, C Andrews, RG Shaq Mason and RT Brown, they will have one of the better lines in the league. The running game will be relying on Damien Harris to be healthy, but if he isn’t they drafted Rhamondre Stevenson to be another power back. James White is back as his usual dangerous self in the passing game. Because of the emergence of Stevenson and a good preseason by JJ Taylor the team traded Sony Michel for some draft picks. Harris, Stevenson, White, Taylor and most likely Brandon Bolden will be the RB group (Bolden makes it mostly for special teams’ sake).
The passing game wasn’t the only place the Patriots spent some money and got major reinforcements. The front seven on defense got free agent additions and the return of Dont’a Hightower at LB. Davon Godchaux and Henry Anderson come in on the defensive line while Kyle Van Noy and Matt Judon join the LB corps. Van Noy can play inside and outside and Judon has proven to be a masterful addition as a pass rusher. There may not be two better players built for Belichick’s defense than Van Noy and Judon.
The team also added rookies DT Christian Barmore and LB Ronnie Perkins. Adding these players to Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, Byron Cowart, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Josh Uche, Chase Winovich and Anfernee Jennings means Bill Belichick has all kinds of combinations he can use up front and competition to even make the roster will be fierce. Guys like DT Byron Cowart, LB Anfernee Jennings and LB Chase Winovich, all whom played significant roles last season, will be fighting for their roster spots this year. Even Henry Anderson, who was a free agent pickup, wasn’t guaranteed to make the roster out of camp.
The secondary has been excellent for years under Belichick and while there is a major question surrounding Stephon Gilmore, this group should be pretty good. Gilmore wants a new contract and Belichick is loath to pay aging players. The team has the depth to lose Gilmore and still be pretty good. JC Jackson is back on a one-year deal but he’s an emerging cover man. Jonathan Jones doesn’t have the profile of Gilmore or Jackson but he’s pretty good. The team signed Jalen Mills and while he’s not purely a CB (he’s a hybrid CB/S) he will get some time at CB if the Patriots need him there. The team even made a late training camp trade for Shaun Wade, a fifth-round pick of the Ravens who was on their chopping block. Belichick might be able to work his magic with that kid. Devin McCourty returns as the backbone of the defense while Adrian Phillips and Kyle Duggar will battle to be Patrick Chung’s successor now that Chung has retired.
Miami Dolphins
Surprisingly, quarterback is not at the top of the list of question marks for the Dolphins; offense. Tua Tagovailoa certainly has to play with more consistency but the Dolphins offensive line and running game are far more suspect than Tua. The offensive line has some pieces to like but they have to find a combination that works. LT Austin Jackson struggled as a rookie last year, that’s understandable but he may have looked worse in preseason, he has to figure it out. The team let Ted Karras leave and they replaced him at center with Matt Skura. Skura was so bad he couldn’t even win the job from Michael Dieter and they cut him. They drafted Liam Eichenberg and they have him set to play LG for now but I have to agree with a take I heard from Mike Golic Jr on Mina Kimes’ podcast, just play Eichenberg at LT. He played LT at Notre Dame and there’s no chance he’s a worse option than Jackson right now, who looks lost. Robert Hunt and Jesse Davis are holding down the right side for now. If Solomon Kindley looked legit at LG the Eichenberg move would be easier.
The running game won’t go anywhere if they don’t find a solid combination up front but even if they do find the right five up front, the running backs don’t scare anyone. Myles Gaskin is slated to start and he’s better in the passing game than running the ball. He just isn’t that dynamic running between the tackles. Malcolm Brown was signed to add some thump to the running game, he’s a solid guy but again, he’s not scaring anyone and defensive coordinators aren’t staying up late worried about Malcolm Brown. Where the team did improve was the passing game. DeVante Parker returns but he’s finally not flying solo. They drafted Jaylen Waddle in round one and signed Will Fuller. If those two are healthy they add a boatload of speed to the offense. TE Mike Gesicki is a good player and the Dolphins drafted Hunter Long from Boston College, a very underrated player who can help them. It’s all up to Tua to make the passing game work, he has the weapons, he just has to get them the ball. It might be tough with a suspect offensive line and a pedestrian running game but Tua is another year removed from his hip injury so he might have some magic in him yet. He’s starting to look more like the player he was at Alabama before his hip injury.
Brian Flores learned under Bill Belichick so he has built his defense in a similar fashion. They have a front seven with variable pieces so they can use multiple fronts. Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis and Emmanuel Ogbah aren’t a flashy group up front but they are effective. Jerome Baker emerged last year as a star at ILB and the team thought they traded for his new partner on the inside when they picked up Bernardrick McKinney from Houston. However, he didn’t work out and they cut him. For now, it’s the underachieving duo of Elandon Roberts and Sam Eguavoen fighting it out for the other spot. They drafted Jaelen Phillips to be that game changer on the outside but for now he’s a backup. Andrew Van Ginkle and Brennan Scarlett will man the OLB spots until Phillips emerges.
The Dolphins also build their secondary like Belichick, meaning they are very good on the back end. CB Xavien Howard led the league in interceptions last year and he can pair with Byron Jones as the best CB duo in the league. The team signed veteran Justin Coleman because they weren’t satisfied with Noah Igbinoghene’s rookie year. He’s the nickel guy for now. Eric Rowe has found a home at safety and Jason McCourty was signed for his experience and he’s moving to safety because rookie Jevon Holland isn’t quite ready for the starting FS job yet. Holland should help out in nickel situations because he’s a solid inside cover guy while he’s learning.
New York Jets
GM Joe Douglas decided to overhaul the coaching staff, much to the delight of every Jets fan who endured the torturous Adam Gase years. Robert Saleh comes in after leading the 49ers defense and he brings a whole new attitude and new offensive coordinator in Mike LaFleur. LaFleur is the brother of the Packers head coach and he’s been learning from Kyle Shanahan, expect the Jets offense to be much more competent. Zack Wilson will be the unquestioned starter from day one and luckily for him the Jets are putting a better supporting cast around him on offense. The offensive line has LT Mekhi Becton coming off a promising rookie year. They drafted Alijah Vera-Tucker in round one to play LG. Veteran RT Morgan Moses was added and is a serious upgrade to that side but he hasn’t won the job from George Fant, last year’s starter. Not sure if that’s good news or bad news. C Connor McGovern and G Greg Van Roten aren’t great but you can only upgrade so many spots in one off season.
The running game may not have any game breakers but LaFleur has been learning from Kyle Shanahan and the Shanahan’s have been manufacturing running games for decades. Tevin Coleman, rookie Michael Carter, Ty Johnson and even LaMichael Perine, should be better in this offense. Where the team really upgraded was at WR. They bring back Jamison Crowder, who was the only real weapon they had last season. Denzel Mims returns and they hope he can develop. They did go out and add Corey Davis and Keelan Cole in free agency, they both will start and watch out for Elijah Moore. The rookie looks good and that’s good news for the future. Wilson will have a far better WR corps than Sam Darnold ever had. The Jets finally gave up on Chris Herndon at TE and traded him. Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin aren’t great but they may be more consistent.
The Jets biggest problems will be on defense. Robert Saleh should be able to put something together but he doesn’t have the talent he had in San Francisco. The Jets have had a pass rushing problem for years and their big off season signing to address it was Carl Lawson. I wondered about the Jets putting so much belief in Lawson to turn around their pass rushing issues when he’s never had a double-digit sack season but I was willing to give Saleh the benefit of the doubt. Then Lawson tore his Achilles in camp and now they are back to square one at DE. DT Quinnen Williams is an emerging talent they hope Saleh can cultivate and for now, he’s the only real talent up front. Veteran Sheldon Rankins is the other DT starter. At DE, it looks like Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers will start with newly acquired Shaq Lawson working his way in. At LB, CJ Mosley returns in the middle, that should be very helpful. He opted out last season so he should be rested up. Rookie Hamsah Nasirildeen will flank Mosley at one spot, he’s a converted college safety with good size for a safety, he’s an undersized LB. Jamien Sherwood is the other LB.
As tough as things might be in the front seven, they look way worse in the secondary. FS Marcus Maye is the best player they have and he’s disgruntled because they won’t give him a contract extension. SS Ashtyn Davis is injured to start the year and might miss the first few weeks, it’s Lamarcus Joyner’s job for now. The CBs are even worse. Bryce Hall is slated to be the top CB and he was a rookie last year who missed the first half of the season because he was coming off an injury, the jury is still out on him. Loved his talent coming out of college but his injury may have compromised him physically. Blessuan Austin was supposed to be the other starter but they cut him at the end of camp and he signed with Seattle. Rookie sixth-round pick Brandin Echols seems to have won the job opposite Hall and Javelin Guidry is the nickel back. No really, his name really is Javelin. This secondary is rough.
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