The Packers won the division last year by five games and the only hope the rest of the division had of catching them was if Aaron Rodgers got traded, he didn’t, he’s back. Even if it’s only for a year it means the Packers should win again, even if it’s a little harder this year. The Bears are the wild card because of Justin Fields, the sooner he plays the better chance they have at competing with the Packers. The Vikings need their defense to improve by leaps and bounds after a disappointing year if they want any chance at the division. They also need their QB group to stay Covid free. The Lions return to the beginning of their perpetual cycle of building, not rebuilding, you can’t rebuild something you never built in the first place.
Green Bay Packers
The Aaron Rodgers saga is settled for now, he’s in camp and ready to lead the Packers for at least this year. He got the contract changes he wanted and he got to make the GM dance for him by making him trade for Randall Cobb. I’m not sure how much Cobb really helps the passing game at this point but Rodgers got to flex a little so there’s that. The passing game is still largely just Rodgers to Devante Adams and that’s a lethal combination. Cobb adds depth beyond Allen Lazard but I do worry he might stunt the growth of rookie Amari Rodgers, a guy I really like. Marquez Valdez-Scantling has had a great camp by all accounts, that would help a lot. Robert Tonyan was a find at TE and Rodgers loves him so the team should try to keep him happy too.
The running game features Aaron Jones and he has all the skills. He’s a tough runner and a fantastic pass catcher and more importantly, he’s Aaron Rodgers security blanket. They lost his running partner Jamaal Williams in free agency but they hope last year’s rookie AJ Dillon can give them a nice complementary back. The offensive line is doing some shuffling with Elgton Jenkins originally moving from OG to C but for now he’s moved out to LT with David Bakhtiari on the PUP list to start the year, he’s out until week 7. Royce Newman and Lucas Patrick take over at the guard spots and Billy Turner becomes the full-time starter at RT. Rookie Josh Myers will hold down the center spot for now. LT David Bakhtiari is one of the best OTs in football when he’s healthy and he’s working his way back. They should be fine because Rodgers is a master at running the offense and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly.
The Packers finally gave up on Mike Pettine at defensive coordinator and hired Joe Barry. He has Kenny Clark in the middle up front and he’s a soon-to-be 26-year-old stud. The DEs are non-descript but they are supposed to be in this defense. At LB, Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith will give the team good pass rush off the edge. They needed ILB help and they may have found it in veteran De’Vondre Campbell, I said might. Krys Barnes played a lot last season but they needed someone who knows what he’s doing because Oren Burks gets hurt a lot.
The secondary can be the strength of this defense if Kevin King plays better or if they replace him at CB. Jaire Alexander is one of the best cover corners in the league and he’s special. He can play inside or out and cover anyone of any size. King had a rough year and then had a truly awful game in the playoffs against Tampa Bay. The team drafted Eric Stokes in round one after only giving King a one-year contract. That’s a blatant signal to King that his job is Stokes’ to lose. Adrian Amos is a very good safety in the prime of his career and he restructured his contract to stick around in Green Bay a little longer. Darnell Savage is an ascending player which gives the Packers three really good players as starters in secondary and they only need the other CB spot to be better to be one of the best units in the NFL.
Minnesota Vikings
I’m not a Kirk Cousins fan and it has nothing to do with his anti-vax stance, I just think he’s an average QB who might be holding back his more talented teammates. Cousins isn’t a big game QB and he isn’t going to win a playoff game for you so his ceiling is limited. RB Dalvin Cook is one of the best in the game, if he’s healthy he keeps them humming along. Cook is multi-dimensional and they use him accordingly. The problem with Cook is he always misses time. Luckily for the Vikings Alexander Mattison is a solid backup. The offense line is shuffling a bit, rookie Christian Darrisaw was slated to take over at LT after Riley Reiff left in the off season. Darrisaw is recovering from an injury and when he comes back is still up in the air. For now, Rashod Hill is playing LT and they re-signed him for this reason. This means Ezra Cleveland can stay at LG, Garrett Bradbury returns at center and Brian O’Neill returns at RT. The RG spot has Oli Udoh right now. The team was hoping rookie Wyatt Davis would win the job but he’s struggled to establish himself in camp. This could be a solid offensive line if everyone is healthy.
WR Justin Jefferson had an incredible rookie season and became the top guy. Adam Thielen isn’t as explosive as he once was now that he’s 30 but he still scored 14 TDs which means he’s still effective when it counts. The team signed Dede Westbrook from Jacksonville who is coming off a lost season due to injury but had two solid years in 2018 and 2019. The Vikings would very much like it if second-year man KJ Osborn or rookie fifth-rounder Ihmir Smith-Marsette would break out. Irv Smith was supposed to emerge with Kyle Rudolph gone but now he’s hurt and it looks like he’s out for the year and they team only has Tyler Conklin at TE. They did just trade for Chris Herndon but I’m not sure that helps.
The defense is where things could really get dicey for the Vikings. DE Danielle Hunter is returning from a neck injury and they need him to be the major pass rusher he was before. Even if he can be, they have very little opposite him. Jalyn Holmes, Stephen Weatherly, or DJ Wonnum could end up playing opposite Hunter. They even tried bringing back Everson Griffen at 33 years old, just to see what he has left, then they cut him. The team signed Dalvin Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson to play inside and they hope Michael Pierce might contribute after he missed last year completely. Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr return at LB. Kendricks was his usual productive self even if he wasn’t making all the plays he used to make. Barr missed most of 2020 with a torn pectoral muscle, that didn’t help Kendricks much. Both guys are pushing 30 so the Vikings need to get the most out of them while they can.
The secondary is looking at some serious turnover. Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland and Mackensie Alexander were signed to add to Cameron Dantzler at CB. Peterson is past his prime, Breeland can play a little and Alexander is coming back to be the nickel guy after Cincinnati didn’t work out for him. The team cut last year’s first-round pick and starter Jeff Gladney after he was charged with assault this off season. Harrison Smith returns at safety but he’s 32 so he’s on the downside, of course that didn’t stop them from giving him a 4-year extension. Anthony Harris left at the other safety position and the team signed former Cowboy Xavier Woods. When you’re importing guys from the Cowboys secondary, that’s not a good thing. Depending on what the Bears do with Fields, I think the Vikings can have enough defense with a solid offense to finish second to Packers, but probably a distant second.
Chicago Bears
So, the good news is that the Bears have some actual playmakers on offense, the skill positions have a solid foundation. RB David Montgomery is a hard-nosed runner who can grind out some yards. RB Tarik Cohen could be ready for the season but if he’s not the team signed well rested veteran (he opted out last year) Damian Williams from Kansas City. Allen Robinson is a legitimate #1 WR and not everybody has one of those. Darnell Mooney looked pretty good taking over as the #2 WR and he should only get better with more playing time. They make a nice 1-2 combo. TE Cole Kmet is also a potentially ascending player, he only got better as the season went on. Jimmy Graham isn’t the guy he once was but he still scored eight TDs last year and he’s a weapon in the red zone. They do need a third WR to emerge, veterans Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin made the team out of camp but they need to be better than they have been. Rodney Adams was a late cut but perhaps they bring him back, he had a nice camp.
Now for the bad news, the offensive line looks like a mess and for now Andy Dalton is the starting QB. On the line, rookie Teven Jenkins was supposed to make the move to LT and be the starter but he’s out for the foreseeable future because of back issues, not a great start. The team was basically forced to sign 39-year-old Jason Peters to compete for the LT spot, if you can call Elijah Wilkinson competition. OG James Daniels is returning from missing most of last season with a torn pectoral muscle. Cody Whitehair plays the other guard spot for now. Sam Mustipher is set to play center, he wasn’t stellar in camp. It seems like Germain Ifedi will fill the RT spot unless Peters can win the LT job and then perhaps Wilkinson moves to the right side. If Jenkins can return from his back issues, he should find a job and the team likes Larry Borom but he’s also dealing with injury concerns.
Matt Nagy has been steadfast in his belief that Andy Dalton should be the starter at QB. The team traded up in round one to get Justin Fields and he’s the most talented QB the team has had in 50 years. These two things don’t seem to mesh. Fields is the best option they have and although it might be a good idea to not get him killed behind a bad offensive line, the offensive skill position players deserve the best QB lining up for them. Nagy’s head coaching life will depend on him getting the QB thing right this year. My confidence level in Nagy wanes every time he talks about Dalton starting.
The Bears have been built around their defense for years and while they were fine last season, they weren’t good enough to overcome their offense’s struggles and some individuals didn’t have great years (I’m talking about you Robert Quinn). Chuck Pagano retired and former Vic Fangio disciple Sean Desai takes over as the coordinator, that should be a good thing. The Bears run a predominately 3-4 look where Khalil Mack dominates as an outside pass rusher from the OLB spot. Robert Quinn was given a huge free agent deal last year after he was great for the Cowboys the year before. He only had two sacks and that should have been foreseeable. The dirty secret no one ever talks about with Quinn is that he’s a great pass rusher from the DE spot in a 4-3 defense but simply isn’t an effective rusher as an OLB in a 3-4, he’s a bad fit. Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan are good ILBs with Smith becoming the true playmaker we knew he could be when he entered the league. Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Bilal Nichols are the three-man front. Hicks can be a game wrecker at times, the other guys just do their jobs, I mean that in a good way.
The secondary is Desai’s specialty and they may need him to work some magic. They don’t have a true #1 CB unless they can turn second-year man Jaylon Johnson into one. He’s a talented guy but in a division that has Devante Adams and Justin Jefferson, it’s not an easy task. They signed Desmond Trufant and then he didn’t make the team coming out of camp. It looks like Kindle Vildor is winning the second CB job, they like his potential but he’s unproven. Artie Burns is another option at CB but they cut him and then brought him back. At safety, Eddie Jackson is a good player but he was banged up to start training camp. Tayshaun Gipson is the other safety; he’s also hurt in training camp and he’s not exactly spectacular when he’s a 100%. Desai has his work cut out for him with this group.
Detroit Lions
The Lions did Matthew Stafford a solid after he was the good soldier for so many years for a franchise that just never put enough around him. They shipped him to the Rams and they got Jared Goff back in return. Goff isn’t a great QB but he’s a legit NFL starter. The Lions are the opposite of the Bears on offense, they should have a very good line but they are lacking at the skill positions overall (WR is especially poor). LT Taylor Decker doesn’t get mentioned with the best OTs in the NFL but he’s very solid, he’s 27 years old and he should keep Goff’s blindside clean. They took care of the RT spot by drafting Penei Sewell in round one of the draft. He has struggled in camp but that’s because he’s very young and he’s flipping over to the right side, not the easiest transition. The tackle spots are set. Jonah Jackson is slated to be the LG and he’s a talented kid. Halapoulivaati Vaitai is the RG, he was an expensive free agent OT from a couple years ago who didn’t work out there so he’s playing guard. C Frank Ragnow is one of the best in the league. He probably doesn’t get the recognition he deserves but he’s really good. They do not have a ton of depth on the o-line.
The best position player they have is TE TJ Hockenson and he should be a big part of the offense because he’s the biggest playmaker. Goff used his TEs in Los Angeles quite well so he should look to Hockenson plenty. RB D’Andre Swift had an uneven rookie season to put it mildly. He has plenty of talent and the hope is new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and new head coach Dan Campbell will commit to the run and unleash Swift. He does seem to always be a little banged up so they signed Jamaal Williams to complement him. He did that very well in Green Bay with Aaron Jones so that’s a solid addition. The WR group is a pretty rough. Veterans Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman were signed to be the top two guys and Perriman didn’t even make the roster. Williams has issues staying healthy and the best guy they had in camp was Kalif Raymond and he won a starting job. He’s small but he proved effective. The depth is even worse and the best hope is rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown becoming a legit player quickly. Detroit’s offense likely won’t be very explosive but maybe can be effective running the ball behind the offensive line.
I’m not completely sure what to make of this defense. The Matt Patricia New England hybrid model is probably out the window and considering how many “New England” type players they had under Patricia and former GM Bob Quinn, this is going to be a work in progress. New defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn looks to be moving to a more standard 3-4 base and it could include two rookies playing plenty. Alim McNeil should settle in at NT and he’s built for it. Levi Onwuzurike should fit in nicely as a 3-4 end, it’s probably his best position but for now veteran Nick Williams looks like the starter. Veteran Michael Brockers was brought in and he’s been starting on a three-man line for years for the Rams.
Sorting out the LB spots should be interesting. Trey Flowers was a major free agent from New England a couple years ago at DE but they are moving him to OLB. He isn’t a speed rusher so it will be a tricky transition. Romeo Okwaro was a 10-sack guy last year and he’ll also be lining up at OLB and he should transition fine. Okwaro’s brother Julian is the backup and he’s built to be an OLB too. Jamie Collins should be one ILB while Alex Anzalone looks like the other. The team finally gave up on Jahlani Tavai.
The secondary was a mess last year but coordinator Aaron Glenn was a long-time NFL CB and has been coaching the secondary for years. First things first for Glenn, he has to unlock Jeff Okudah. Okudah was the third pick of the draft two years ago and he was bad last year. He has all the talent to be a #1 CB but Glenn has to coach him up to it. The other CB spot should be Amani Oruwariye, he’s not great but he just needs to be not terrible. Rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu might be the third guy, it’s a rough depth chart. Tracy Walker and Will Harris are the safeties and they are about as average as their last names. This isn’t a great group.
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