Most Valuable Player
Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Lamar Jackson, QB Drew Brees, QB Tom Brady, RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Russell Wilson, QB Dak Prescott
Sleepers: QB Drew Lock
Mahomes and Jackson are the last two league MVPs and it’s quite possible these two just pass this award back and forth over the next decade or so. Both players are immensely talented and play on teams that look like they will contend for a while. Quarterbacks always have an advantage in the MVP race which is why this list has so many of them. Drew Brees and Tom Brady may be older but both of them are on teams that should be major contenders and both could be considered sentimental favorites. As good as Russell Wilson has been throughout his career, he has still never even garnered a single MVP vote, that is one of the strangest stats ever. I don’t think he wins the award but I do think he gets votes this year. Dak Prescott is often overlooked and Ezekiel Elliott usually gets more credit than him but I think voters take note this year as Prescott puts up some big numbers and the Cowboys win their division. Christian McCaffrey went for over 1000 yards rushing and receiving last year and if he does it again this year, he’ll get some MVP votes. Drew Lock is my sleeper because the Broncos offense is set up for him to put up some big numbers if all goes well. He won’t win the award but he will have a good year.
My Pick: Mahomes. I know Jackson won it last year but that actually makes it more difficult to win again because you have to have an even better year than you had before and it has to be significantly better for people to notice. Jackson suffered the same fate in college after winning the Heisman. It’s okay, he can take it back next year. Mahomes has all the momentum coming off his Super Bowl MVP and the Chiefs are going to be great. He wins his second MVP, but not his last.
Offensive Player of the Year
Contenders: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Michael Thomas, QB Kyler Murray, RB Alvin Kamara
Sleeper: RB Joe Mixon
Mahomes and Jackson are on this list for obvious reasons. McCaffrey is also an obvious choice given the fact he goes for over 2000 yards combined. Saquon Barkley is one of the most talented players in football and if he stays healthy, he can also go 1000/1000 like McCaffrey. Alvin Kamara is another back with the potential to go 1000/1000 because he’s equally effective running and catching the ball. Michael Thomas won this award last year because he had 149 catches last year, I think that’s some kind of record. Kyler Murray put up some good stats last year as a rookie QB and this year he adds DeAndre Hopkins to his passing game, that’s going to help. Joe Mixon doesn’t get talked about a lot but with Joe Burrow around to open up the passing game Mixon should have some extra room to run and he’s a talented guy.
My Pick: McCaffrey. He had almost 1400 yards rushing and just over 1000 yards receiving last year and that was with Kyle Allen being his QB. Teddy Bridgewater is better and I think this year he gets over 1500 yards rushing and over 1200 receiving as the Panthers offense is a bit better than last year and he’s still carrying the load.
Defensive Player of the Year
Contenders: DE Aaron Donald, OLB Khalil Mack, OLB TJ Watt, OLB Chandler Jones, OLB Shaq Barrett, DE Nick Bosa, DE Myles Garrett, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB Jalen Ramsey
Sleeper: DE Yannick Ngakoue
Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack are guys that just belong on the list due to their long history of being great defensive players. It might work against them for the award at this point because their level of play is expected to be great. Gilmore won the award last season, rightfully so, but that makes winning it again harder. It will be tough for him to have a better season on a Patriots defense that has been compromised by free agency and Covid-19 opt outs. Chandler Jones and Shaq Barrett were two of the best pass rushers in the league last season, this year they will try to not be overshadowed by their teams’ offenses. Nick Bosa was a star as a rookie and took home defensive rookie of the year, he’ll be making this list for the foreseeable future. Myles Garrett has to mend his reputation before he gets votes for DPOY but he’ll play well enough to be considered. Jalen Ramsey is one of the best CBs in the game but he plays on the Rams and I don’t think he will get many votes. TJ Watt broke out as one of the best OLB in the game last season. Ngakoue will shine under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota and on a better overall defense than he played on in Jacksonville.
My Pick: Watt. TJ Watt is the leader of the Steelers defense this year and if the team had been better last season, he might have had more recognition. With the offense set to rebound with Big Ben back the spotlight on Watt should be brighter. He could have 15-18 sacks and have an even bigger impact than last year.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Contenders: QB Joe Burrow, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Henry Ruggs III, WR Justin Jefferson, RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Cam Akers
Sleeper: RB D’Andre Swift
Burrow is the only rookie QB slated to start right away as Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa wait behind veterans. Burrow is going to put ups some numbers even if they aren’t in the win column. Clyde Edwards-Helaire got off to a great start for the Chiefs and he will continue that all season. Jerry Jeudy is supposed to be the #2 WR behind Courtland Sutton but if Sutton’s shoulder injury lingers Jeudy will be asked to step up. Ruggs is likely Derek Carr’s top target but the question is, does Carr have the arm to take advantage of Ruggs’ deep speed? Justin Jefferson will be the #2 WR behind Adam Thielen, will he get enough usage to win this award? Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers are sitting behind veteran RBs right now but no one thinks that will last. Both will be eventual starters, their chances at the ROY award comes down to how soon they take over the jobs. Swift was one of my early favorites and he only becomes the sleeper because the Lions added Adrian Peterson and that means Swift has to climb over both Peterson and Kerryon Johnson to get the job.
My Pick: Burrow. This will be an interesting award. The RBs are almost all in a time share except Edwards-Helaire and he will be overshadowed in an offense filled with playmakers. The WRs are always a dicey proposition as rookies, usage and consistency can be issues. Burrow is the high-profile player and he’s got some weapons in the passing game. If the Bengals can keep him up right, he wins this award.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Contenders: DE Chase Young, DT Javon Kinlaw, LB Isaiah Simmons, LB Patrick Queen, LB Kenneth Murray, DT Derrick Brown, CB AJ Terrell
Sleeper: Antoine Winfield Jr.
Let’s be honest, this is Chase Young’s award to lose. He’s the best pass rusher of all the rookies and he’s almost assuredly going to get double digit sacks. Washington isn’t a great team but they have a very good defensive line which means you can’t double Young all the time, he’s going to get his. Javon Kinlaw isn’t a starter yet but he will be and the 49ers have a great defense. Derrick Brown is a starter but on a defense that isn’t great. Simmons, Queen and Murray are all slated to be starters but they will have to put up huge numbers that stand out. Queen and Murray should both play on top 10 defenses so that should help them stand out. Terrell is the one rookie CB who is going to face the firing squad given the division he plays in, if he plays well, he could win the award. Winfield is a playmaker and playing for Todd Bowles defense in Tampa is going to give him some opportunities to stand out.
My Pick: Young. I’m not stupid, Young is going to have 12-15 sacks and be one of the best defensive players in the league even as a rookie. He has Pro Bowl potential in his first year.
Playoff Predictions
This year the NFL starts their new playoff format with 14 teams meaning one more playoff team per conference. Only the top seed gets a 1st round playoff bye making it that much more important to have the best record in each conference.
NFC Playoff Teams (* Wild Card teams)
Dallas
New Orleans
Minnesota
San Francisco
* Seattle
* Tampa Bay
* Green Bay
AFC Playoff Teams (*Wild Card teams)
Buffalo
Baltimore
Tennessee
Kansas City
* Pittsburgh
* Indianapolis
* Denver
NFC Championship Game
New Orleans over San Francisco
AFC Championship Game
Kansas City over Baltimore
Super Bowl
New Orleans over Kansas City
Drew Brees goes out a winner as he gets the Saints team over the playoff failures of the past few years, wins Super Bowl MVP and retires a champion.
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