Buffalo Bills
The Bills look like a team on the cusp of a breakthrough and their offense may have added the one piece they desperately needed this off season, a legitimate #1 WR. Stefon Diggs gives them a gamebreaker who can take the pressure of being the top WR off of John Brown and let him play the complementary role he is more suited to play. The team has a good offensive line, an emerging TE in Dawson Knox and Cole Beasley is still a legitimate weapon in the slot. At RB, the team drafted Zack Moss to be the power complement to Devin Singletary, they should make a pretty good duo. This offense comes down to the development of Josh Allen at QB. He has the skills to be a top-notch QB he just has to put it all together. Given his offensive line, receiving group and a running game there are no excuses left, he has to perform.
The defense was good last year and head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier should keep them performing well. The team added veterans to supplement that side of the ball; DE Mario Addison, LB AJ Klein and CB Josh Norman. All players McDermott is familiar with from his time in Carolina. Addison gives them a better pass rusher than Trent Murphy, Klein gives them some steadiness next to young LBs Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano and they hope Norman still has something left in the tank to lineup opposite Tre’Davious White. They also added AJ Epenesa in round two of the draft and he adds some pop to the defensive line and some youth they desperately need.
It’s now or never for the Bills if they want to take the next step, the Patriots rebuild means the division is there for the taking and the Bills are the steadiest team in the division with the least amount of turnover meaning they have the advantage this year. If Josh Allen can take the next step the Bills win the division and make some noise in the AFC playoffs this season.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were terrible to start last season but they played much better in the last half of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the definition of a hit-or-miss QB but his veteran presence last year stabilized the offense. He returns to hold down the fort until the team deems Tua Tagovailoa ready to take the reins. This team is going through a lot of change but it should be for the better. Nowhere is that more prevalent than on the offensive line. LT Austin Jackson, LG Ereck Flowers, C Ted Karras and RG Solomon Kindley will all be new starters but they are all upgrades over last year’s line. WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki are solid options in the passing game and the team added Lynn Bowden Jr from the Raiders. He could be the playmaker this team desperately needs. The team upgraded the RB position with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida. The offense will also be under the direction of new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, I’m less optimistic about that development than I am the upgrade in talent. Gailey has been out of the game for a bit so that makes his scheme an unknown.
The defense has also undergone a major facelift. New guys like LBs Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts, DEs Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah and CBs Byron Jones and rookie Noah Igbinoghene add talent to a unit that desperately needed it. Add in some talented holdovers like DT Christian Wilkins, LB Jerome Baker and CB Xavien Howard ad this defense has potential to make a move. The upgrades on defense might actually outperform the upgrades on offense and Brian Flores knows how to coach up a defense. If the offense can be more consistent they can also keep the defense off the field and fresh.
The Bills are counting on continuity with just a few slight adjustments to take them to the top of the division. The Dolphins are looking for a major overhaul to do the same for them. They were one of the least talented teams in the league last season and it showed in the first half of the year. Brian Flores did an excellent coaching job in the back half of the year getting as much as he did out of that roster. It will be interesting to see what he can do with actual NFL talent on both sides of the ball.
New England Patriots
No team is going through more change than the Patriots with the end of the Tom Brady era, a new starting QB in Cam Newton coming in and the fact that they have a whole host of players who opted out of the season because of the pandemic. The offense will look a lot different with Newton running it. The offense will suffer from the same issue it had last season and that is a serious lack of playmakers in the passing game, Julian Edelman can only do so much. They still have no TE that threatens anyone and the deep passing game is non-existent. Without Marcus Cannon at RT the offensive line is compromised. The offense is going to have to rely heavily on the running game, using both the running backs and Cam Newton’s legs. Luckily, Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead and even Damien Harris give the Patriots plenty of options in the backfield.
The defense will look a whole lot different without LBs Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Robert and Jaime Collins, who all left in free agency and without Donte’ Hightower who opted out. Belichick’s defense relies heavily on the LBs and Ju’Wuan Bentley is going to have to play far too much given his skillset. They are going to be relying on rookie Josh Uche quite a bit too. The defensive line doesn’t scare anyone and they will need Chase Winovich and John Simon to ball out at OLB. The secondary will still be a huge strength due to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, safety Devin McCourty and a deep CB group of Jason McCourty, JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones. They do need either rookie safety Kyle Duggar or second-year man Joejuan Williams to step in and replace Patrick Chung who also opted out of the season.
I think the Patriots have the potential to be epically bad this season. The team has a pedestrian offense and an overmatched defense. I only have them ahead of the Jets in the division because Bill Belichick can still outcoach Adam Gase any day of the week and I don’t think the Jets roster is that much better.
New York Jets
The Jets offense needs Sam Darnold to take a pretty big leap if they want to get better so they addressed the issues around him, I’m just not sure they got guys that help as much as they hope. They needed WR help so they signed Breshad Perriman. The former 1st-round bust had a solid year last season in Tampa Bay but that was as a 3rd WR not a #1, he’s never excelled as the top dog. The team then drafted Denzel Mims from Baylor and while he’s a great athlete and was highly productive he didn’t run the whole route tree at Baylor and the NFL will be a big transition. I’m not sure two WRs who could be inconsistent players will help Darnold as much as the team hopes. The Jets took things one step further than the Dolphins by literally getting five new starters on the offensive line. I’m quite sure LT Mekhi Becton will be an upgrade over last year but the other four spots might not be. Getting those five guys together is paramount to the offense’s success because Darnold needs as much protection as possible. Le’Veon Bell gets a new backup in the ageless wonder Frank Gore but the Jets running game leaves plenty to be desired, again, the offensive line needs to be considerably better. A healthy Chris Herndon at TE would be very helpful to Darnold’s health and development, he’s a talented guy.
The Jets defense has some solid players in guys like DT Quinnen Williams, LB Avery Williamson and safety Marcus Maye but they lack any serious playmakers. They run a 3-4 defense which relies on OLB to generate pressure, they don’t have anybody that really does that. They also traded disgruntled safety Jamal Adams to Seattle, he was the best player on the defense and their biggest playmaker. Avery Williamson is returning from an injury at ILB but CJ Mosley opted out of the season meaning they are missing their best overall defensive player (after trading Adams). Gregg Williams has put together some great defenses before but you have to have someone to make plays or you just won’t get the job done. This defense leaves a lot to be desired.
I think this season could blow up on the Jets with an inconsistent offense and a defense that can’t get off the field. It makes me wonder if Adam Gase will survive long-term and if the team will stick with Darnold if he doesn’t show good progression. This is a very important year for the Jets’ future, the coach, the QB and the franchise as a whole.
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